Episode 435: Adam Jude (Seattle Times)

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number four thirty five of the Marine Layer Podcast. We welcome on a recurring guest, our friend Adam Jude from the Seattle Times, to talk about what the Mariners will do at this upcoming trade deadline. 00:00:11 Speaker 2: A reminder of you guys, just make sure before this podcast starts that you're downloading these episodes and leaving that five star review. If you're listening, make sure to go hit subscribe. If you're watching on YouTube, you can also check us out all across our website, marine layerpod dot com. You'll find our episodes there, patreons, all there, the whole nine yards at marine layerpod dot com, and then find us on social media too. We're posting content every day at marine Layer Pod. 00:00:37 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling, and we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball podcast network, recording here on Tuesday morning, July twenty eighth, before the Dodgers series has started. It's only one game has happened, lyle and we said, you know, the Mariners had a chance to split and maybe change the vibe of this week. They did not. 00:01:12 Speaker 2: Top one today. 00:01:14 Speaker 1: Uh yeah, the Monday was pretty tough. That's an accurate way to describe it. And to be honest, do you guys really want to hear a reaction if the Mariners get their teeth kicked in and the first game of this Dodger series. No, I don't really. 00:01:27 Speaker 2: Think there's just not enough to break down after one Dodgers game. Come Friday, we're gonna have a full conversation about whatever happens in the Dodgers series and the overarching storylines and approaching the trade deadline. Even more so, there will be a lot more to talk about after this conclusion of the Dodgers series. But as we're sitting here now putting this episode for you guys out on Wednesday, it felt like a pretty good time to have Adam Judah because he's got a pulse on the team as well as anybody. He's on the road trip, he's in La, he's in the clubhouse, and he's a perfect person to talk trade deadline with. So we do all that with him. It's coming up here in a couple of minutes. But yeah, if you want a quick little recap of Monday's game against the Rangers, there ain't much talk about. It was pretty miserable. 00:02:15 Speaker 1: Well, George Kirby sucked, the offense sucked, and Dan Wilson said tough one when asked about the game, like check all the boxes, Like well, what else are we supposed to say? Again on Sunday, it's like, okay, Like we don't know what's gonna happen Monday. They could split and the vibe would be totally different. But the vibe was the exact same on Monday as it was when we taped on Sunday night. After the first three games, it just it wasn't there. They didn't play well, they'd lost three or four to the Rangers, and now they're heading to LA against the best team in baseball, the best offense in baseball, and it is very hard for Allall and I to see the Mariners winning this series. And by the way, Dodgers are stacking two lefties in the series. 00:02:58 Speaker 2: I was about to say a team is fun on fundamentally sound as the Dodgers. Well, of course they're helping play the matchups if the alignment works, and it did here because yeah, you're gonna get Eric Lauer and Justin Robleski the first two games, which Eric Lawer has been nothing special, but he's a lefty. Justin Robleski is an All Star also a lefty, so good luck. I like listen, It's like there's just no way around it with this Dodgers team, even when you look up and down and you say, oh, they're gonna miss Yamamoto and show he's not pitching right now, and glass now's on the IL and Blake Snells on the IL and you think maybe there's a soft spot. Oh no, you get an All Star lefty and then another lefty, so great, and then they'll get Roki Sasaki in the finale, which can go a variety of ways, but you know when he's on, he is really good. 00:03:51 Speaker 1: Unfortunately too, Luis Castillo and Emerson Hancock will be pitching in this series. The way it's starting to sound low when we talk about this with Adam Dude, is that this is gonna be the last Mariners start for one of those two. 00:04:04 Speaker 3: In LA. 00:04:06 Speaker 2: It sounded like it might be Emerson. I'm gonna be really sad. That's two deadlines in a row. They're gonna trade away Brandon Garcia last year and now potentially Emerson Hancock this year. 00:04:19 Speaker 4: Dude. 00:04:19 Speaker 2: They're out to get us every every Marine layer of pod guy they just trade, I'm. 00:04:23 Speaker 1: Gonna be happy for him because he's gonna have an entrenched spot in someone else's rotation if they do trade him. But I'll tell you that, like being at the park is so much better because of Emerson Hancock and like the energy he brings. 00:04:36 Speaker 2: If you've ever interacted. 00:04:37 Speaker 1: With him as a fan, like you would feel that too. But let's try not to like write his like a bit here obituary. Yet he's not been traded. It's not a guarantee he's gonna get traded, but he is amazing. So we will see whether or not this Dodger series is the last start for either of those two guys. Adam was making it sound like he feels pretty confident they're gonna trade one of these guys by next Monday. But regardless, we do talk a lot of things. We talk about, I mean, not only trade deadline. We have some perspective talk on the state of the Mariners with Adam as well. He was on that last road trip where the Mariners ended up firing Scott Service, and we dive into that a little bit that the comparisons of that road trip and this road trip and what the Mariners can do the rest of the season. So very insight with it with Adam as always. 00:05:20 Speaker 2: Yeah, So Adam was on the first two legs of that twenty twenty four road trip. He was not in La. Last time it was Divish that was in LA. But Adam was in Detroit, and then he was in Pittsburgh and then Divish was in LA. So yeah, he got to see not the tail end of it and the finale of that road trip that was just the road trip from hell, but he saw a big majority of it. 00:05:42 Speaker 1: Yeah, we won't keep you guys any longer. Let's get you to that interview with Adam Jude. 00:05:49 Speaker 2: All right, We've got our friend Adam Jude on with us recurring guests. You know him as the Mariners beat writer for the Seattle Times. And we're taping this ahead of the Mariners Dodgers series. We've got a little less little week before the trade deadline starts. Adam, always great to have you on. How in the world would you describe the vibe at this road trip as you're sitting in LA. 00:06:12 Speaker 3: It's not great. That's a good way to start, man. 00:06:16 Speaker 4: Yeah, we're sitting here in LA on Tuesday morning before the Mariners have to head to the Daughter Stadium here coming off losing three or four to the division leading Texas Rangers. I don't think any of us expected that here at the end of July. And you look at the Rangers and the way they're doing it, this patchwork offense. Their stars are beat up, the pitching is kind of holding things together. They're figured out a way, and the manners are the exact opposite. They just haven't been able to figure out a way. They're obviously trying. They're saying all the right things. 00:06:47 Speaker 3: You hear Dan Wilson talk all the time about the belief and. 00:06:51 Speaker 4: The trust and the fight that they have, and they're trying to do it for each other, and it's just simply not working right now. 00:06:58 Speaker 3: I don't know what the answers are. They're searching for them. 00:07:01 Speaker 4: You know, we saw the dismissal of a very popular hitting coach last week, intended to rattle the cage I suppose for this hitting group. And you know, we saw spurts I suppose in Texas, but certainly nothing consistent, and the offense by and large just looked discombobulated, disconnected, uninspiring really and how long have we been saying that here about this team the past couple of months. 00:07:28 Speaker 3: Though. 00:07:30 Speaker 4: It's going to be a really, really, really interesting week here, not only because they have to play the best team in baseball, but because the trade deadline we know, is right around the corner here. And you wonder, if the Mariners continue to nose dive here, just how desperate this front office is really feeling, and how much they really believe in this roster, and if they can really fulfill expectations and salvage this season down the stretch. 00:07:52 Speaker 3: Here, and if one or two big moves is relieving enough. 00:07:57 Speaker 1: We're talking before we were recording about you being on the last road trip that ended with the Mariners at Dodger Stadium back in twenty twenty four, which ended with Scott Servis losing his job. I don't think the same thing's gonna happen at the end of this road trip, but the vibes of both road trips are veryly, very similar. How would you compare the two, Yeah, it's hard not to draw parallels here. 00:08:20 Speaker 4: You know that road trip two years ago in twenty twenty four started in Detroit against a Tigers team that at that time was just starting it. It's a scent if you remember, and they really started it against the Mariners with a bunch of comeback wins. If you remember, they played in Seattle first, and you know, Kyle got robbed of a home run there and just it was that stretch. I remember thinking about it that October in the playoffs when the Tigers were in the playoffs. 00:08:46 Speaker 3: They're a scent started just in the Mariners deceense. 00:08:51 Speaker 4: That started too, and it was because of the Tigers in a lot of ways that that started for the Mariners. 00:08:55 Speaker 3: And then the Mariners went to Pittsburgh. Wasn't great there. 00:08:58 Speaker 4: They had to face schemes the first night, I think lost two or three, and then came here to LA and got swept at Dodger Stadium and the next day was an off day on Thursday. And I would describe that as probably an all time low point for this franchise. 00:09:13 Speaker 3: Got Service getting fired and the way. 00:09:15 Speaker 4: That went down, and no one, I can promise you, no one in the organization wants to relive that. That said, again, it's similar vibes just around this team right now, just because. 00:09:26 Speaker 3: You know the expectations were so high. 00:09:29 Speaker 4: You know they expect way more of themselves, and it's just obviously just about everything has gone sideways lately. And again they're trying to figure it out both, you know, the coaches, the hitters, the front office, figuring out ways to to get this thing on track here. 00:09:46 Speaker 3: But you know, again, I agree with you TJ. 00:09:49 Speaker 4: I don't think we're gonna see something dramatic by the time we get back to Seattle on Friday. I think Dan Wilson's going to be given a chance to kind of write this ship, presumably through the sea. And again, as they keep saying, you know, there's still time, there's still time, there's still time. Brian Wu even said it the other day. I know we've been saying that a lot lately. We're running out of time. They all know it, they all recognize it. It's it is one of those things where sometimes they're trying too hard, and you know that's that's kind of becomes detrimental. But they are, they're running out of time to figure this out. And like I said, it's a big week because you know, at some point, you know, if you're continuing to roll up the same lineup, continue to try to do the same things, it's just not working. And I think everyone recognizes that, and maybe there is some sort of drastic move that they have to consider it here in the next week. 00:10:38 Speaker 2: All right, before we really start to get into a lot of the trade deadline stuff, which we obviously want to talk about, I'll ask you this, how do things go right against the Dodgers this week? How do the Mariners find a way to salvage or dare I even say, win two of three in LA? 00:10:55 Speaker 4: Yeah? Well, it probably wasn't an accident that the Dodgers lined up two lefty starters here to start the series. Robleski has been one of the biggest surprises in all baseball this year. Great story, young left hander made the All Star team, and then they got kind of the opposite, a soft toss name lefty veteran Eric Lauer to go on on Wednesday. I think the Dodgers know what they're doing, and I think they recognize the Mariner's weaknesses. 00:11:20 Speaker 3: So you got to start there. 00:11:21 Speaker 4: The Mariner's you know, right handed side of the lineup's got to figure it out. You know. I thought last week to close out the homestand with Julio, we saw some really good signs. You think of Elie d La Cruz robbing him of that ridiculously hard one hundred and ten mile prior one offer in the hole, and you know, he hit a home run. I think the next day I will say, and we've written about this, but Julio's not completely passed the concussion protocols stuff. Again, I think he's he's fine, but they've been really intentional and careful with his workload here in the past ten days or so since he's come off the concussion. I l but and again, you know, we it feels like we always circle back to Julio the last five years on these conversations, and on the one hand, that's not entirely fair. 00:12:08 Speaker 3: On the other hand, like he's your number two hitter. 00:12:11 Speaker 4: He's a right handed hitter against two lefties that you'd like to see him do some damage against. And obviously Randy's been really good all season, a Dom has been hitting lefties pretty well. 00:12:22 Speaker 3: The middle of the lineup's got to figure it out. 00:12:24 Speaker 4: Obviously, this year, Cal's the biggest story, biggest story maybe in all of baseball. 00:12:28 Speaker 3: What the heck has happened with Cal? But Josh Naylor is right there as well. 00:12:33 Speaker 4: It's been what six weeks since he's hit a home run, He's he's hit a ton of line drives, he's getting on base. 00:12:38 Speaker 3: He's he's getting his singles and doubles. 00:12:40 Speaker 4: But obviously, one of the biggest cures I think the marriage could have here in the second half is finding the second half Josh Naylor from last year too, that they got after the trade deadline. So yeah, they got to figure out those lefties. That's the simple answer against the Dodgers here. And then Roki Sasaki on on Thursday, who has been much much better of late, but has been a erratic at times in his career, so that one's kind of unpredictable. But Luis Castillo, Emerson, Hancock, these first two days kind of showcase games for those guys. Obviously, their names have come up a ton. I've reported it, everyone's reported it that. You know, obviously, the Marriers are more open than they've ever been into shopping from their starting rotation here because they do. 00:13:25 Speaker 3: Have such a surplus and it is their strength. 00:13:27 Speaker 4: But you know, obviously the background on both those guys is this their last outing with the Mariners, and it certainly very well could be. 00:13:36 Speaker 1: You asked George Kirby about this yesterday after his start, and he said he wasn't hearing the outside noise. But you're looking at the body language of a lot of these guys and talking with them, whether on the record or not. Do you think they are hearing some of the noise around them. 00:13:51 Speaker 4: It feels like it'd be pretty impossible not to hear some of it. In George's case, he might be able to block it all out because he's a guy who's pretty pretty focused. 00:14:03 Speaker 3: And I know, you know, he says he's not on Twitter. I don't he's not on Twitter. 00:14:06 Speaker 4: I don't know if he has Instagram or if he does, if he's even really active. But you know, a lot of times of stuff, it's not you know, you seeing it scrolling it through social media or whatever. It's your agent checking in with you, or friends or family, like, hey, you see this, how you're doing? 00:14:21 Speaker 3: Who knows? 00:14:22 Speaker 4: I don't want to speculate specifically in George's case, but yeah, with Louise and Emerson, Louise has been through this before. The guy's been traded twenty seven times over the last decade or whatever. Emerson really going through it for the first time. So I am curious to see on Wednesday, how how he looks, how he handles it. Again, some guys are able to just brush it off and it's not a big deal. Other guys, you know, it's only natural you internalize a little bit if you're trying to block it out the best you can, but you can't help but let it creep in a little bit. So I'll be curious to see how Emerson Hancock responds here this week. But yeah, you can again when the team was underperforming. I remember talking to Paul Seawall about this in twenty twenty three, a week before the trade deadline, and Paul was always a really honest and sincere guy, and he was just like, we have to pick it up or there's going to be some really uncomfortable conversations here in the next couple of weeks, and he knew his name was going to be at the forefront, and it was. 00:15:22 Speaker 3: You know, they were in a similar spot. 00:15:23 Speaker 4: In some ways that year where the Mariners you wondered if they would be better off buying. 00:15:28 Speaker 3: And sailing selling trying to straddle there. 00:15:31 Speaker 4: But obviously the context was much different than because the Astros are still fully in charge of the division. 00:15:36 Speaker 3: And right now as bad as the Mariners have played. 00:15:39 Speaker 4: There's only what two and a half out in the al West, and they're in certainly in full go go for it mode, which frankly they should be at this point. 00:15:51 Speaker 1: Let us tell you, guys about Cozy Earth. Cozy Earth's mission is to make home the best part of your life. They sent us their bamboo sheet set They're Everywhere pant and every Day Polo for us to try, and we were really impressed. The bamboo sheet set lives up to the hype. It's Cozy Earth's mission to make the softest sheets in the world, and I think they've gotten pretty darn close. And I really like the pant and Polo as well. For what I look for in everyday clothes, I'm looking for something comfortable but a little stylish as well, and I think both of these check those boxes. Just so you know, Cozy Earth has a lifetime warranty on their clothes, a hassle free return process, and a one hundred nights sleep trial on their sheets. Summer should feel easy for everyone in the house. Cozy Earth's bamboo sheet set, Everywhere Pant and every Day Polo are meant to keep you cool, comfortable, and actually relaxed all summer long. Head to cozyearth dot com and use our code marine for an exclusive twenty percent off. That's code Marine Maari for an exclusive twenty percent off. And if you see a post purchase survey mention that you heard about Cozy Earth right here. 00:16:54 Speaker 2: So let me parlay what you just talked about and segue that into a little bit of trade deadline talk here. So as we're sitting here recording this Tuesday morning, it was about a half hour ago, and Jeff Passen reported the following, which was Emerson Hancock is expected to be traded before the deadline. And maybe that lines up with what you guys are hearing too in your own world. But maybe partly that is maybe partly that's self explanatory. But I'll ask you, in your opinion, a week from now, what do you put the odds out that one of these starters is gone. 00:17:26 Speaker 4: Definitely greater than fifty percent, probably closer to seventy five. I mean, they have to address the offense somehow, someway, and I think it's fair to ask if this roster, as it's currently constructed and as it's currently playing, is worth investing a top prospecting if it's worth giving up a top prospect part of your future for a short term band aid fix, I would lean no, and my senses the front office right now would would. 00:17:56 Speaker 3: Lean no to that question as well. 00:17:59 Speaker 4: So what that leave you, well, you know, we saw a similar trade with the Red Sox and Nationals earlier this week. The Red Sox traded one of their young pitchers early for proven right handed veteran bat and Curtis Meade's having a breakout year. I think that's pretty instructive trade for what the Mariners are probably looking to do and realistically what they can do. 00:18:25 Speaker 3: You know. 00:18:25 Speaker 4: Unfortunately, I think Marion fans might be a little disappointed in the return, you know, the Manners end up getting for Emerson Hancock. He's been awesome for them this year, Ben, I think we can all agree one of their top three starters, most consistent, maybe top two at times. Certainly it's been an awesome story, awesome dude, awesome breakthrough year. 00:18:44 Speaker 3: But if you're the Mariners, you know, trading Luis. 00:18:47 Speaker 4: Castillo with thirty million dollars owed over the next year plus, it's a hard contract to move even with as well as he's been pitching of late. Emerson Hancock obviously, you know, with his contract situation, he's under club control through twenty thirty, much everyone can afford him, and so that's much much easier to move, much more attractive for other teams. The question is what can you get back? And again, you know I threw it out there the other day. I know the Mariners were intrigued by Spencer Steer. The Reds were obviously in town last week. That sort of deal made sense to me. Emerson Hancock for Spencer Steer. That's not going to happen now Spencer sears on the injury list. You know, Casey Schmidt with the with San Francisco, his name has been out there a toon obviously, another right handed bat third base, could play some left field, another guy having a breakout year. To me, he's kind of the parallel the hitting version of Emerson Hancock, where kind of struggled for two three years trying to get settled in the majors and finally he's having a breakout year this year. That made some sense that could still happen, but now he's banged up. Casey Schmid is now banged up as well, so I don't know exactly where that leaves them, but yeah, again, I wrote a does yesterday, but it does increasingly feel like one of those two, Luis Castile or Emerson Hancock is kind to get traded and the Mariners will get more, no doubt for Emerson Hancock. So that's why we kind of keep circling back to that name, and why the Mariners do too, because the market is telling them that they're gonna get a lot more and more teams are interested in Emson Emerson Hancock. 00:20:20 Speaker 1: Why would the Mariners prioritize trading Emerson over trading George Kirby. 00:20:26 Speaker 4: Good question, but remember George Kirby was their hand picked starter for Game seven, the first Game seven in franchise history, last year in Toronto. He's a guy who was their first round pick. And Emerson Hancock was too, obviously, But you know, when you look at the Mariners priorities, their mantra, their entire pitching philosophy, it's throws strikes. No one in the history of baseball is done that better than George Kirby. And again we're talking, you know, less than twenty four hours after one of George's worst starts of his career. So I get that that's important context, and there's an emotional reaction from the fan base right now, not only to George but the way everything's going with the offense and the direction in general of this team. But I think if you pulled every front office in baseball, they'd probably all tell you George is the more talented, more established, clearly and more proven clearly starter between those two guys, And so Maryor's still having for two more years. I think there's a general sense, you know, in the industry, that George will test free agency when he gets there in a couple of years. 00:21:33 Speaker 3: He's an East Coast guy. I think there's an assumption that he'd prefer to. 00:21:38 Speaker 4: Get back East. I don't know that that's true. I don't think he's ever verbalized that, but that's been an assumption out there for a while. Will he resign with the Mariners, who knows. But again, I can see the logic behind some of the speculation the last couple of weeks and why George's name has been out there. But I've asked around specifically and ke the answer I keep getting industry wide, It's like, no, the Marriers are not shopping George Kirby. They made it clear they do not want to move George Kirby. Now, can that change in the next five six days? 00:22:08 Speaker 3: Sure? 00:22:08 Speaker 4: I think with this roster, this team, you can't necessarily rule out anything. But at this point I would be shocked if the Marriers were willing to move any of those top four guys. 00:22:20 Speaker 2: Interesting, I guess, yeah, And I think to TJ's point, I don't even think it really just stems not from us, but you know, from to the general fan base, it's not even just stemming from the start on Monday. I think it's people weigh the four and a half years of Hancock versus the two and a half years of Kirby, and they say, to your point, you know, Kirby's gonna walk in free agency and you have more time with Hancock, Like what's the difference in value and what's the difference in return on the trade market that you could get? Like, is there more value for Kirby? But clearly it doesn't seem like the Mariners are gonna yeah again. 00:22:54 Speaker 4: Like Mariers have viewed him as a top of the rotation cyum type talent for a long time. Now, this would mark you know, a low, maybe the low point in his career, one of. 00:23:07 Speaker 3: Them Ni Keiths. 00:23:09 Speaker 4: You know, he kind of peaked, I suppose a couple of years ago and All Star in twenty three, but it just feels like it'd be a little bit of a cell low, and I just don't know that that makes sense for. 00:23:19 Speaker 3: The Mariners right now. 00:23:21 Speaker 2: So if we look at bats, they could add because obviously that's something that the team desperately needs, specifically from the right handed side of the plate. If things don't go well in LA this week, does that change their course at all with the trade deadline? I mean, does that change their mantra with how much they're willing to buy. 00:23:41 Speaker 3: It? Certainly could. All I know is they've been telling teams and that they're all in. 00:23:48 Speaker 4: And this is again I think, as we said, everyone recognizes the American League as it is as winnable as it's probably ever been. 00:23:57 Speaker 3: And when you're the Mariners, you came into the year with what. 00:24:00 Speaker 4: They thought was the most talented roster they've had during this era over the last decade, and maybe one of the maybe the most sounds that I'm sure I wrote this in screen training when I was as bullish as anyone on the Mariners, but you know, it felt like the most talented roster they'd have as a franchise since twenty twenty one. And concerning the youth and some of the guys who looked like they were ascending a ton of guys in their prime. You look at how many of these guys are even over thirty, right, these guys are in their prime. And you know, for so many of these guys to have maybe you know, the worst seasons of their career or or if not the worst, at least to drop off as much as they have, I mean, you can't predict those sorts of things, and all the projection systems and all that whatever you want to look at. This was a bottom ten percentile outcome I think for this team had to have been. So I don't know, I don't know what the future short term future volts for them, but I do know, you know, we talked to Jerry Depoto, you know, in the out in Texas, Shannon Dreyer, Daniel Kramer, and myself, and he's clearly not happy. He's upset. That was why you know, Bobby Maggie Honess was dismissed. It was intended as a way to fire up, you know, that offensive group. Jerry even acknowledged I wrote this, you know, he wasn't sure it was the exact right move, but they didn't want to do something so drastic that you know, they kind of lost their philosophical way right now. 00:25:29 Speaker 3: But it was something to try a lot of fire under these guys a little. 00:25:33 Speaker 4: Bit, because nothing in the past six weeks or so it seemed to be working. 00:25:37 Speaker 3: And again that's explaining Jerry's side of things. 00:25:40 Speaker 4: You can agree with it or disagree with it or not, but I do think Jerry sounded a bit like a lot of the fans I hear on social media and in my inbox every day, where like, the same thing seems to be happening just about every night, every night, every night, and someone needed to try to shake things. 00:25:59 Speaker 3: Up a little bit. 00:26:00 Speaker 4: And obviously Jerry's you know, into the spotlight, under the fire from the fan base too, and rightfully so when the team is underperforming, everyone is, and in his words, there are consequences when you know you're underperforming like this, And so again, as I said at the top, you know, does that mean something draftic is gonna happen in the next five six days. 00:26:21 Speaker 3: Maybe. 00:26:22 Speaker 4: I again, I just don't know if it's wise for this team to trade one of your top prospects. They're not gonna trade Katee Anderson or Ryan Sloan. Would they consider Michael Royal or Las Montes or Johnny Farmelo or Feline Celestin. I mean, maybe you package one of those guys with Emerson Hancock. You feel like you'd get a pretty pretty darn big return, pretty good bat. But again, what bat is out there that would require you to give up? You know, two pieces like that in a in a major sort of blockbuster type deal. You would have done that for Randy Roseraino two years ago, and the Mariners did that two years ago. They brought in Josh Naylor and Gino Suarez. They're not a that's ready to go take the big swing for the biggest hitters out there. They've proven a year after year. It's just I don't know who those guys are that the marriage would want or be willing to take that big swing. 00:27:11 Speaker 1: For Starting a business is a big deal and it can be very intimidating. There's a ton of questions with not always a ton of answers. You'd be surprised how much simpler Shopify makes. It packed with all the tools you need included from day one. Shopify's templates and AI tools get you a stunning site up and running fast with no coding needed. It also seamlessly integrates into an existing website, like it did with ours. Shopify checkout means more customers can actually buy, and returning ones can do so with a single click. We saw the effectiveness of this right away with the volume of merch sales as soon as we went live. If questions come up, Shopify's built in AI assistance Sidekick is ready to help you build, troubleshoot, and keep moving. Because Shopify handles the setup and check out, you have more time to focus on growing your business, which was my main concern when setting up our own merchandise. All you need is an idea, Shopify handles the rest. Start your free trial today at shopify dot com slash marine Layer. Again that Shopify dot com slash Marine Layer. To start your free trial today shopify dot com slash Marine Layer. If Spencer Steers hurt and Casey Schmidt is hurt, and who else the Mariners and Orioles don't line up to make a trade as you've talked about in the past, and the idea of c Suzuki is foreign to the Cubs since they're well into a playoff spot. Who do the Mariners trade for? Are there are there any other ideas out there that just haven't been talked about a bunch. 00:28:40 Speaker 4: I would love to hear your guys the ideas at this point. I've been looking around again. Sometimes it feels like a fool's errand right, You're like, I'm just I'm not hearing any other names, and so you know there's an echo chamber a risk at some point too, right, if you're looking around and you know, I, if I were to throw it in or on Twitter or something, and it's I don't make it clear enough that it's my idea or speculative on my end, it comes across as reporting. And so I try to be really careful with that stuff because I'm I don't want to throw in a name just speculating when and then if somebody else picks it up and it's like it turns into her I'm reporting it or whatever too. So I always try to straddle that line as carefully as I can, not always successfully, but yeah, I don't again, like, is there a you know, Luise Robert Jr. Right, there's a report that the Mets are desperate to get rid of him with them. Would he be an upgrade in right field for the managers? You're just coming obviously as a platoon piece, like as that worthwhile risk with his contract and again you throw out, you know, with with the Mets take on Louis Castillo's contract for Louise Robert. I'm sure people have gone down that rabbit hole. And sure, on paper, in theory it makes it looks it looks good for both sides in some ways. But you also have to consider the fact that for a team like the Mets, for these teams that are over the luxury tax already, you're taking on not only the money owed to Luis Castio, but it's basically doubled because of the luxury tax too. So do they want Louis Castillo for sixty million dollars, let's say, for the next year and a half. 00:30:19 Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't know that anyone wants that. 00:30:21 Speaker 4: So yeah, maybe maybe there's there's something there where it's a very low risk. Mariners don't have to give up much. You're just taking on Louise Robert Junior's money. But again, I is he really an upgrade? Is he better than just bringing up Michael Royal? Right now? You know again, I'd love to hear your guys, because just who else is even out there right handed or even left handed to shoot? Just go out and get Louise Rise, make him the everyday DH. I don't think he loved that, but is that a possibility. I think the Marigs are probably looking at every auction right now, but obviously preferred and really need someone from the right side. 00:30:56 Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna say, this is our specialty, so you want to pass this on to us. I mean, we are ideas men to the one hundredth percentile when talking about players to add to the roster, one of them. Funny enough, you brought him up on your own. I was gonna say, it puts a knot in my stomach to even throw it out there. But I was gonna say, Luise Robert just on the idea of availability and potential contract swaps and the idea that if you get him right, that he could be somewhat of a spark plug for the offense. The problem is, I mean, I'm just sitting here pulling up his numbers as we're talking. He has not had a WRC plus above one hundred since twenty twenty three. And that's paired with the strikeouts and the injuries and the money he's o. I don't know that one. That one doesn't feel like it's like a match made in Heaven? 00:31:43 Speaker 1: Right, How about this idea, guys? I mean, I know the Blue Jays are terrible and it's a bummers contracts a little bit longer because you just signed this offseason. I was gonna say, if Kazuma Okamota was on like a three year contract, could you convince the Blue Jays to Swapis Castillo for Okamoto. It's not like Okamoto's like on the upswing. He's already thirty, so it's like, hey, he's making seventeen million dollars at thirty one, thirty two, and thirty three. Can we swap like you're gonna have? You might trade, You might trade Kevin Gosman away, but you can then receive Louis Castile back to fill his spot in the rotation. Like, doesn't sound like the worst idea, And you could send them a prospect too to help sort of balance that out Okamoto does play third base, Like, that's just an idea. The other thing Loud I've been talking about Adam is like, are the Mariners willing to like move a position player that's currently on their roster to clear some space for a trade candidate, someone who like better fits what they want? For example, in this scenario, do you move JP Crawford so you open up third base for someone to potentially come in in play? 00:32:50 Speaker 4: Yeah? I have a hard time to seeing that in reality, right. But again, as I citer earlier, I don't think you can necessarily out anything either. Sure, if you're really trying to shake things up, really trying to rattle in cages, really trying to piss people off, that'd be one way to do it. Again, I just I don't entirely see it. But everything, for the most part, everything has to be on the table right now. 00:33:17 Speaker 3: Okamoto. 00:33:17 Speaker 4: Obviously, the Mariors did their homework in the off season. You know, they weren't willing to meet that price tag. And I don't think I wasn't told this specifically, but my sense was, you know, they didn't think he could play third base every day and might not have been a great fit at Tea Mobile Park. But and again, he's hit some home runs, I know, and I think he's been about what the Blue Jays hoped he would be. 00:33:43 Speaker 3: But I don't think he's been a world beater either. 00:33:45 Speaker 4: Obviously he could help the Americ Nursey, yes, but I don't know if that's a perfect fit either. 00:33:52 Speaker 3: And I don't know that they want to take on you know, that kind of contract either. 00:33:58 Speaker 4: Again, I think they're willing to to to raise the payroll a little bit, it's my sense, just like they have for the last handful of years when they've been competitive, But I don't know if they're really willing to shoot through the roof either. 00:34:12 Speaker 1: And another guy who would make sense is Zach Netto. But the problem is he plays for the Angels. Yeah, that ain't like you can just take that off the table right away. 00:34:20 Speaker 2: No, that's not, especially because the Angels need starting pitching. Like in theory, it it lines up. But yeah, when when you're the Mariners and you've made a trade with every team in Major League Baseball in the last ten years except that one, something tells me it's not happening. 00:34:35 Speaker 3: You know it does, doesn't it feel like things are changing though. With the Angels. 00:34:38 Speaker 4: Obviously they you know he's in there now, but so they're gonna do something, right, they But I guess we've been taking that for ten years. They've gotta gotta do something. But it does feel like but now I have a hard time seeing, uh, seeing that matchup. 00:34:53 Speaker 2: Yeah, they changed their front office, but the guy that sits at the top of that org is still the same. So something tells me that may not be happening. The one other one I'll throw out there if you want to try to parallel a Gino move at this deadline, and I'm sure this would fire up just about every fan you could imagine, even though I don't know if it logistically makes sense. Is well, do you just bring back ty France? The problem with that is I don't know where he plays, and I don't know if the Padres are really gonna sell at this point or not. I mean, they've won a few in a row now, so I'll throw the name out there if we're just throwing names out there, But I don't know if that one really helped, Like, I don't know if that one really happens. 00:35:28 Speaker 4: TI's been awesome this year, Yeah, it's been really cool to see for him when the gold Glove last year and then getting a regular chance finally again this year and taking advantage of it. It's been one of the Potters' best hitters all the year. And yeah, he looks pretty darn good in the Mariners ligne up right now. But yeah, to your point highlight, where would he play again? 00:35:45 Speaker 3: D H or whatever? But I just don't think. 00:35:48 Speaker 4: I mean, aj Fereller is the most unpredictable executive in baseball. 00:35:52 Speaker 3: He's gonna do something wild in the next week, I'm sure. 00:35:56 Speaker 4: But folks I've talked to don't expect him to try Mason Miller unless it's just an absolute windfall. 00:36:03 Speaker 3: And yeah, they're riding it now too. 00:36:07 Speaker 4: Again, Like it's it's much better to be the third wild card than he's sitting at home in October, isn't it. Like even if you know whatever, they have to go to Atlanta for that first series or whatever the case may be, Like you've at least got a lottery ticket you're in. 00:36:21 Speaker 3: But yeah, the. 00:36:23 Speaker 4: Padres in a lot of ways, do feel like they kind of control this this market. They again, just like the Marriors have done with relievers in the past, Paul SEAWALLD. You know, they could trade one of their other relievers. Adrian Marahone is one of the best, if not the best, lefty relievers in in baseball. The Mariners would prefer a right handed reliever, I'm sure, but if that guy's available, you know, at a reasonable cost, he's a he's a rental, which is something the Mirrors have historically, you know, shot away from. But that guy with a pretty darn good in the marriage well and a lot of guys would And so that's another one we haven't really talked about because it's less of a priority. But you know, with the uncertainly around Matt Brash, you know, sounds like he's probably more of a September return at this point. But been on the Angel list twice already, I'm not sure how much you can entirely count on a fully healthy Matt Brash unfortunately. So yeah, they want to go and give you another reliever to a guy throughout there a few weeks ago that maybe looks like more real, really realistic option is Jonathan Bender with the Marlins, who's been really good, underrated, you know, late bloomer type, had some injuries, but really good numbers and a guy feels like the Mariners could do some good things with So again, I don't know if it's gonna be the splashy move. I really don't see Mason Miller coming to Seattle, but they're gonna they're gonna add somebody there that that they assume that they hope can help. So it gets the secondary priority to to right handed back. But I think the marriage are hoping to do what they've done in the past and add one of each. 00:38:04 Speaker 1: Is there any remaining chance the Mariners pay at King King's ransom for Trek Schooble. 00:38:10 Speaker 3: No, okay, ask, I'm trying to see a scenario no, like. 00:38:20 Speaker 1: The one we've always thrown out there at him is that you essentially have to swap starters. You take an l on paper, but you give yourself a better chance this postseason. 00:38:30 Speaker 4: Get you get a Game seven starter who doesn't want right That's why there's still rumblings that the Dodgers might swoop in at the last second, drop the hammer and bring Terrek's School in because they can't a they have the rotation depth to trade from it from the major league level, but they are a ridiculously good farm system too, So yeah, it's just not fair these Dodgers. 00:38:50 Speaker 2: What are we doing it well? And it's funny and they and you sit there right now looking at them, and while you expect to get all their A level starters back healthy at some point. I mean, Blake Snell hasn't made many arts, Glass now has made many stars, show has now banged up in terms of on the mound. He's still gonna hit. But like, you know, if you're the Dodgers looking at this market, you could be saying to yourself, yeah, like we could use another starter. 00:39:11 Speaker 3: Right, And I'm sure they're in those conversations, what's it gonna take? What do you want? 00:39:15 Speaker 4: And again maybe the last second they swoop in and do something dramatic. They don't really need him obviously, and again I just don't you know. It's been a tough turn through the rotation for the Mariners. But as we've talked about, you know, the Mariners believe in their process, they believe in what they've done, certainly on the pitching side more than the hitting. But they feel like they're set up for the long term here. And just because they've played poorly for six weeks or two months here, yes, really largely the whole season, but particularly here in the last six weeks to two months. I don't know that they want to completely break away from their big, big plans, their larger vision, which is basically. 00:40:01 Speaker 3: What it would required to bring into school. 00:40:02 Speaker 4: I just I just don't have and I was one of the first to advocate for it, because you know why, this is your window. It's wide open, you know, drop the hammer and bringing that guy that puts you over the top. 00:40:13 Speaker 3: But for multiple reasons. 00:40:15 Speaker 4: You know the prospect capital you have to get up, get up, and just knowing you only have them for at most ten starts, right, I just don't. 00:40:23 Speaker 3: I just don't see it. 00:40:25 Speaker 1: Last thing from me, Adam. Regardless of how the Mariners approach this deadline, this August is brutal. They It's as hard as I think I've ever seen an August for them, and the way they're currently playing, I have a hard time seeing them not being more games below five hundred than they are right now unless something changes. What does happen if they end August and they're like seven to ten games below five hundred. Get with the window they're in and the expectation that they have that they're supposed to make the World Series this year. 00:40:55 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I don't know, but I do know there'll be a lot of uncomfortab questions like that, a lot of uncomfortable conversations, and certainly not a place that marriers want to be a month from now. But you're right, August is pretty brutal stretch. Have another ten game trip east coast or it's really all over the country, right, it's. 00:41:16 Speaker 3: Is it New York, Houston? Then Milwaukee's at the order? 00:41:19 Speaker 2: That sounds right, Yeah, that sounds right because they get, you know, after the Dodgers, they get the Twins and the I guess the Tigers, which is a little bit of a soft spot. But the Tigers are played a little better as of late. 00:41:28 Speaker 1: But then yeah, Twins are ahead of them in the schedule, on the in the standings. 00:41:32 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, so there's that. But then you get yeah, I think I think you got it right. I think it's Houston, New York, Milwaukee. 00:41:39 Speaker 4: You're not going all across the country in ten days. I don't even know if there's a I don't have it right in front of me. I don't even know if there's a day off. 00:41:44 Speaker 2: And got to be but then you get then you get the Cubs and the Phillies at home, and then you go to Boston. It's everywhere. It's everywhere. 00:41:52 Speaker 4: So but then I guess the flip side. September on paper looks like, you know, that's where they're going to make their push and again, get through this next month. It's fair to ask how, but try to get through this next. 00:42:08 Speaker 3: Month hovering around five hundred, and then. 00:42:10 Speaker 4: You hope you can make a push in September and the division is still really bad and you can win the division with eighty two wins. 00:42:19 Speaker 3: I'm being a little sarcastic there, but you know, eighty five might get it done. 00:42:24 Speaker 4: I don't, yeah, I at the way everyone's playing right now, but you know they've made it a three team weight raised when it didn't need to be. And that's just a position they've put themselves in. And that's why there's a you know, they can't frustration. That's the word everyone falls back on, but it's it's more than that. There's anger, there's disappointment, all the emotions, and they know they need to figure it out and they picked a brutal time to try to do it because they're here in La going to Dodger Stadium, and then, as you said, TJ, with the schedule in front of them, it's very much survival mode. 00:42:56 Speaker 3: Right now for these guys. 00:42:58 Speaker 2: I think we hit just about it. 00:43:00 Speaker 4: Name. 00:43:00 Speaker 2: We talked about the names on the trade market that we could throw out there, and I think we hit a lot of them, which isn't that many because it's just not a robust market. But I guess we'll see what they do in the next handful of days to week in terms of play on the field and acquisitions on the trade market, because it's gonna be a very very interesting final five days or so lead or yeah, leading up to this trade deadline, so people should buckle up. I think there's gonna be a lot of hills and valleys over the next few days in terms of emotions, and you know, we'll just see how it all plays out, especially after this week in La. Adam, you're the best. We always love having you on. Thanks so much for helping us break all this down and we'll talk soon. 00:43:38 Speaker 3: Good stuff, guys, Thanks for having me. Always enjoy it. 00:43:43 Speaker 2: Shout out to Adam is always for hopping on. If we have any takeaways from that, I don't think there's any that are groundbreaking, but just sounds like Adam's similar to us, doesn't think this is a very strong trade market for buyers. 00:43:57 Speaker 1: Even the people as tapped in as Adam Jude are still wondering who is actually available on this deadline, and the only people that know are the thirty people that run these franchises and run the Baseball operations department. Oly Jerry's got a good idea of what's available and what's in front of him, because I mean the rest of us we don't really know. I think my main takeaway at this and we're talking with Adam about this a little bit before recording, the vibe of the Mariners needs to change. Last year, the vibe of the Mariners could change number one because they had a sixty home run catcher and number two because they were able to bring in two great vibes guys for what they needed last year in Aohenios Warz and Josh Naylor. They don't have any vibes, let alone production, just vibes and clubhouse presents to bring into this team like they had last year. So we keep saying it like if things are gonna shift with this team, it's gonna have to come from within. I just don't know where that's gonna come from. 00:44:56 Speaker 2: Well, it's gonna have to come from cal Julio and Naylor, Like they're supposed to hit but they're not doing it right now. 00:45:03 Speaker 1: And on top of that, again, it's gonna have to be like the presence in the clubhouse to like change the mindset of everybody because it's not good right now. There's no way it's good. The change is gonna have to come from within. The problem is it's really hard to just change from within without really changing anything. I mean, that's why Jerry fired Bobby magianis he said to show people like, hey, you got to wake up, like you have to make a change. But if nothing can actually change with the team, then how much really will change? 00:45:34 Speaker 2: Probably not all that much again unless players really start hitting. But I would say those were the main takeaways other than yeah, not a ton of bats available. 00:45:45 Speaker 1: Then Adam doesn't think there's gonna be another move made the rest of the season. 00:45:49 Speaker 2: Yeah, Now that doesn't mean there's not a move made after the season, but maybe not in the season. If the Mariners missed the like if the Mariners missed the playoffs, man with this season with these expectations. I don't know how there's not changes made, but it just maybe on October first rather than August tenth, right. 00:46:11 Speaker 1: So we'll see nothing. Nothing is for sure, well except besides the fact that Adam said, well over fifty percent chance Mariner's starting pitcher is traded at this deadline. So within the next week one of the six guys in this rotation will not be there, and it is unfortunately leaning towards our guy Emerson Hancock. 00:46:30 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I like your Kazuma Okamoto idea. It's creative. I just think his contract's too long. 00:46:37 Speaker 1: He's not making that much money. That what like might be like a quote unquote like poison pill for a lot of teams with Luis's contract, if you're gonna put him in the rotation, given he pitches to like an average rate and is healthy. The entire year, odds are Hill had one hundred and eighty innings and his option for the next year of his contract will vest and I'll have an extra year and twenty million dollars. And you say to the Blue Jays, okay, you have all these years of Kazuma Okamoto remaining at seventeen million dollars, you're now more prepared to take on a contract of Louis Castio that could actually be a year longer than you might want. But we're also taking money off your hands too with Okamoto, and since he's thirty and you guys might need to tear down and reset a little bit. Maybe this doesn't make as much sense, but Adam seems to think that the Mariners have done enough homework on Kazuma Okamoto that they might not deem that worth it. But if it's a one for one swap with Louis Castile, or maybe you again just send a prospect to the Blue Jays as well, maybe that would work. He's not bringing you all sorts of like contact or anything that's gonna make your team strike out less, But what he is gonna do is help you hit more home runs, which is really the only way your offense has been successful this season. That's what he's been really good at. 00:47:53 Speaker 2: It's just the Blue Jays are in such a similar spot to the Mariners where they don't feel like they're looking to tear down or truly sell off law term pieces. I think they expect to be competitive again next year. I think in their minds that includes Kazumo Okamoto, and for. 00:48:06 Speaker 1: The Mariners to have room for Okamoto at third base, they would have to get rid of JP Crawford, and Adam doesn't think that's gonna happen, so sure that would that would make they'll make things tougher. 00:48:17 Speaker 2: Yeah, Again, the Ty France thing, in terms of vibes is probably the closest thing you could get if the Mariners somehow tried to trade back for him. I just I just don't really see the Padres giving him up. 00:48:26 Speaker 1: I think Ty France has good vibes. Was he have good vibes if he comes back here. 00:48:32 Speaker 2: I don't know. Fans would be happy. The people in the clubhouse would be happy. Tis loved in that clubhouse. But Ty France isn't a He's a good player and he's had a really nice year, but I don't know if he's a true game changer. I think he is a bit of a leader. I think he has a voice in that clubhouse and had one when he was here. 00:48:51 Speaker 1: And I guess it's a totally different coaching staff than when Ty was here last time as well, But still it's not it's not trading for Josh Naylor last year, or trading for Gino. 00:49:00 Speaker 2: No, not quite anyway, We'll see what happens in the next few days. I will tell you what. We'll say it again, Friday's podcast is gonna be very very interesting one way or another because the Mariners will have either shocked the world and defied everybody's expectations in this Dodger series, or it's gonna go how I think most of us think it's gonna go, and then wow, conversations get interesting. So buckle up for Friday. Buckle up for this Dodger series. It should be really it should be really interesting one way or another. With that, that'll just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure to download these episodes. If you're listening, make sure to go rate and review five stars. It helps a ton. Please go hit subscribe on YouTube if you're watching on the video side. You can also find our website marine layerpod dot com. Our episodes are all there. Our Patreon's also all there. Podcast merch is all there again. That's Marine layerpod dot com and buy us on social media too. We're everywhere. We're posting content every day at Marie Layer Pod. That's t j'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.