Episode 448: Does Winning The Series Against The Phillies Mean The Mariners Have Turned A Corner?

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number 448 of the Marine Layer podcast. The Mariners shockingly, yes, shockingly have won two series in a row against two of the best teams in the National League. They've won the first two games against the Philadelphia Phillies. We'll react. 00:00:15 Speaker 2: Reminder to you guys, before we start this podcast, just do us a big favor. Make sure you go download these podcast episodes if you're listening, and make sure to go rate and review, and please leave it five stars, whether you're on Apple or Spotify or wherever you listen. Go hit subscribe on YouTube if you're watching. You can also find all of our stuff at our website, which is marinelayerpod.com. That includes our merch, our Patreon, everything. And then follow us on social media. We're everywhere at marinelayerpod. 00:00:42 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling. 00:00:42 Speaker 2: Let's get it rolling. 00:00:56 Speaker 1: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Ladder Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network. Recording here on Tuesday evening, August 25th. I honestly can't believe what my eyes have been seeing this week. But the Mariners have pretty soundly beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the first two games of this series. Something that has not happened a whole lot this season. 00:01:18 Speaker 2: Yeah, that was pretty impressive. I mean, nine runs on Monday. Kirby absolutely deals on Tuesday. I didn't think they were going to have much of a shot against this Phillies team, which I think kind of outclasses them in just about every way on paper. It's why you play the games. This is why you play the games. And you know what? The Mariners, despite getting pummeled on Sunday, did win two of three against the Cubs. Now all of a sudden they've taken two or three against the Phillies. Again, like we're not going to jump to any conclusions yet, but we can sit here and say they have played some good baseball over the last few days. 00:01:55 Speaker 1: Here's some objective facts about this team. They had a terrible stretch earlier in this month. But in the last four series, they've won three of them. Against those three teams, one of them is in first place in your division. The other two teams are two of the four best teams currently in the National League. Against the four best teams in the National League this season, the Mariners have lost two of those series, and they have won now two of those series, and at a bare minimum, they will go 500 against the top of the table in the other league, which is supposed to be significantly better. And there are definitely going to be some people out there now thinking, Lyle, okay, is this finally it? Like, are we finally starting to see a little bit more of the team we thought we were going to see going forward? Because then you look at what's after this, the Mariners are two and a half games out of first place in the American League West. They have the easiest strength of schedule remaining in all of Major League Baseball. I can't blame people right now who are optimistic about the fact of this team making the postseason. 00:03:07 Speaker 2: I think that's fair. I think we're also going to talk about the other side of the coin too, because there are two sides to this, but yes. And this is why the game of baseball just makes no sense so much of the time. Because the Mariners are now, as we've talked about, 11 and 11 for the month of August, where you've just had this gauntlet and played good team after good team after good team, mixing some great teams, elite teams to that fold too. When they went, what, 13 and 14 in June, when they should have been seven over for the month playing the teams that they played in June. But this is why the game makes no sense half the time, and it's why you do play the games, because while the Mariners should have been pummeling teams like the Pirates and the Orioles when you played them seven times and the Nationals who you lost the series to like you didn't capitalize on those but all of a sudden you've won a series against the Cubs you've won a series against the Phillies yeah won a series against the Astros I mean you near swept those guys yeah I mean again this is one of those things there's just not rhyme or reason to it it's just one of those things that makes baseball a very odd game I can. 00:04:18 Speaker 1: Find one reason that you can solidly sit on. And his name's Cal Raleigh. He hit four home runs in the first two games of this Phillies series. Doesn't the offense look a little different? Like, quite a bit different? Where the Mariners are facing, you know, especially here on Tuesday, they're facing a deficit. And then Cal on Monday just sort of tacks onto Julio's home run in the first inning as well. And really kind of puts that game out of reach right away for them. And you look and you're like, Wow, the scoring runs was so much easier when he's hitting the ball over the fence. When your best home run hitter is actually hitting home runs. It definitely feels different. 00:05:01 Speaker 2: Well, of course. And you want to add Julio to that too. That's what this team was built to be. It was built on your stars hitting the ball out of the ballpark. And sure, you saw that on Monday. And Monday's just one game. But the one thing the Mariners have definitively done better this month than any other month is they're hitting home runs. That's what this team is built on. All this small ball talk, this is why I roll my eyes. This team is built to hit the ball out of the ballpark. And when they're doing that, you see better results. You've seen them do that this month and certainly in the last couple weeks. And here's three of four series wins. 00:05:39 Speaker 1: Why this month has been confusing, while you look at the record, the 11-11 record against the hardest schedule in Major League Baseball in the month of August, is something that should be a win. It is objectively a win for how they've played this month. But I also get kind of confused when I look about how the Mariners went about getting that 11-11 schedule. Let me read you out a few key statistics, and you tell me whether or not you should be This is something to be excited about going forward. And it's an honest question I want you to tell me in the comments below. So as of right now, in the month of August, the Mariners ranked 28th in ERA as a pitching staff. I even went through and I removed about 10 of those runs in each of the two losses the Mariners lost by 22 and 17 runs respectively. Because that's like on average what they gave up in absolute garbage time. And I'm just going to, I'm going to round to them giving up 10 less runs in that stretch, which by the way, I took that. 00:06:43 Speaker 2: Out, which would only be, which by the way, you taking that out takes out a lot of the innings where you had position players pitching. So that's part of it. Correct. Correct. 00:06:53 Speaker 1: So I'm trying to avoid the inflated number. The problem is that only drops the Mariners to 27th. 00:07:01 Speaker 2: Not much better. In other words, there's still a lot of red flags. There's some positives. The wins are wins. And stacking wins is what you have to do. And the formula it's going to take to dig yourself out of this hole. But the sustainability of it is where you get into the bigger conversation here. Because aside from hitting home runs, and look, that's what the team has done. That's what's helped them start to climb their way out of this thing. But the rest of it still is cause for concern. Because it has not been smooth sailing for your rotation. 00:07:37 Speaker 1: It's not. And while the home run number is relevant, 13th in all of Major League Baseball in home runs this month as a team, they're 24th in runs scored, and they're 28th hitting with runners in scoring position. Those feel like basic numbers if you're going to evaluate a team that I think are solid to look at for what kind of team you are in a month. And what those stats have told us is that the Mariners have pitched terribly this month. They've been well below average to bad offensively, and they haven't hit with runners in scoring position this month. The only difference is between this and their two-month slog in June and July is that on those two months, I believe they were 29th in home runs. Now they're 13th. Is that enough of a difference? Let me ask you, is that right there enough of a difference to having you believe that in the ability of this team to win baseball games more consistently. 00:08:37 Speaker 2: The only way I would spin that a little bit is if they've been this bad against teams this good and they're still holding ground in the month of August, is this all going to improve in September when you play a bunch of teams that are way out of contention? Because 17 of their final 22 are against the A's, the Angels, and the Rockies. Is that part of it? You'd think. You'd think. 00:08:57 Speaker 1: But also this team has not been exceptional at many things at all this season. 00:09:02 Speaker 2: And that's what this comes back to. Right. So like, what, what do you believe? 00:09:07 Speaker 1: Seriously? I feel like people watching these four series could say, okay, I've seen enough. There were two tragic losses in these, in this four series stretch, but otherwise I thought the team played pretty solid. And if that's what you want to believe, that's totally fine. And I honestly believe the Mariners are starting to show in these last couple of weeks that The ability for a lot of their players, especially their star players, to play a little bit more consistently and give themselves a better chance at winning baseball games. But there's also the fact that even as good as it's been this month, there are still clear flaws. So I think there still is a real question going forward about how comfortable you feel about the sustainability of all of this. 00:09:48 Speaker 2: You know what I think? I think these next seven games are going to tell us just about everything. They're going to tell us a whole lot. Because if you go out on this road trip and you go one in five, nobody's going to be believing when you come back home from that. Even if, even with the schedule you have set out for you in September, if you go one in five on this road trip and you drop another four games of ground by the end of that, well, then it's going to be a ridiculous climb out of this because as we sit right now, the Mariners are five games under. Even if they sweep the Phillies, like you'd be back to eight games under at the start of September. And that's just, I think, too much ground to make up, even against all these teams that are bottom feeders. Now, if you go three and three, or you go even better than that, then all of a sudden, I think a lot of people are going to start believing because they're going to sit there and look at the schedule and say, well, you made it out of this ridiculous, ridiculous grind of a schedule and is now the time to capitalize. It's now when you finally hit all systems go, kind of like you did last September, and that's what propels you. I think these next seven games, like, I think, I'm not really, if I were to pick one side or the other right now, I would still say I am not bought back in because there's been too much of a sample size of the bad side of baseball all year to let a couple weeks just say, oh, well, now everything's fixed. Now I'm amped up. Now I can fully believe in everything. I would say check back with me at the end of the next road trip. Because by the way, the Mariners don't win in Boston almost ever. It's been about a decade since they've won a series against the Red Sox at Fenway. And Toronto's playing better ball right now, man. Toronto's really starting to find their stride too. So I think this road trip's going to tell us a lot. 00:11:44 Speaker 1: I think so too. The other thing about this month, I'm going to double check right now. It's not like the Rangers and Astros have played an insanely good brand of baseball this month either. In fact, I think they've been roughly worse than the Mariners have been. The Mariners are 500 with a negative 30-something run differential this month. Maybe more. And both the Astros and Rangers, I'm going to double check right now so I have it. Yeah, I mean the Astros right now, Uh, in this one. So they win today. They're right now, 10 and 11, same record as you, uh, in the month of August. And I think the Rangers might be worse. I will check that right now, but these teams have definitely like given you an opportunity. And you know what? Sometimes you do need to be lucky, uh, to seize opportunities and make the playoffs. And the Mariners certainly over many, many, many years in the past have not been lucky at all, especially when it comes to getting playoff position in their, uh, At the final stretch of the season. Okay, so the Rangers this month are... So they lost today. So each team is one game below. 500 in the month of August. It's just a whole lot of mid in this division right now. No one really wants to jump out and win that division. And of these teams, the Mariners are currently playing the best. Out of all of those teams. This team really is, I think, going to make the playoffs. If they're going to. With 80 or 81 wins. 00:13:09 Speaker 2: Which.. 00:13:12 Speaker 1: I think it's totally fair where you say, I'm just not feeling as confident in the team, even if they make the postseason. Because you're not looking at the team as, this is a postseason caliber team. This is a team that... This is a team that... I'm just totally blanking right now. This is a team that overcame a tough division race and a wild card race and battled through and won the division. It's like, no... This is a team that, if you inserted them into the division last year, finishes nine games out of first place. Yeah. 00:13:50 Speaker 2: Yes, correct. This is why it's so hard to buy back in. Like, all the way. You have to see more than this. And the other part of this, too, is this is going to involve the Mariners playing a stretch of baseball that they haven't played all year. Now, again, they may just feast on this September schedule, and that could change everything. But they're essentially at a pace where they have to keep winning two of three in almost every series for the rest of the year. And while the Mariners have won a few series here now over the last couple weeks, even with the easier schedule coming up, I mean, are they going to keep up that pace? Again, they haven't had a pace like that all year. Or are they going to have some stretches still in the final few weeks of the year where After winning series and three of four tries, you drop two of the next three series. And then maybe you win two more, but then maybe you lose two of three after that. Because this is what they've done most of the year. It's been a total seesaw. And if you do that, it's not going to be enough. I mean, you have seriously got to keep winning series after series after series after series for a team that hadn't won many series against teams with winning records until the last couple weeks. 00:15:04 Speaker 1: What is the Mariners record against teams below 500? 00:15:08 Speaker 2: Well, it can't be that great considering they're well under 500 still this year, and they weren't capitalizing on games in June when they played a lot of those teams. 00:15:19 Speaker 1: Let's do some on the spot research right here. So the Mariners this season against teams above 500 are are five games below 500, which puts the Mariners at exactly 500 against teams below 500. Yeah. And you wonder if the Mariners kept up that hypothetical same pace against teams below 500 in the final month of the season, would that be enough to make the postseason? You would think because every other team in Major League Baseball has a harder schedule than you do, but you never know. 00:15:58 Speaker 2: Well, you can't go 500 against teams below 500 the rest of the way. That's for sure. 00:16:02 Speaker 1: And you could, well, and you also couldn't have some of those losses be against the teams in your division. Cause you still have a series against the Rangers and you still have a series against the Astros, two teams who are about on equal footing as you as in terms of fighting for a playoff spot. Yeah. 00:16:17 Speaker 2: Yeah. There's no doubt about it. Again, this is going to take a stretch that they have not had this year. I will say to get back to Cal here for a minute. I am happy for Cal just like on a personal note and human level, I am happy for Cal. And I think everybody is that he's had a handful of games now like this, because I can't even imagine what he's had to go through this year. And I know he got hit with the superstardom last year. And I know that obviously look like, you know, when you're hit with the superstardom expectations are high expectations for the team are high. And while nobody expected him to repeat 60 home runs, uh, Nobody expected him to have a season like this. And I'm sure it's really weighed on him because he knows how important he is to this team. So to see him have a couple games like this, I can't even imagine how it feels to be Cal Raleigh over the last couple days. And I'm just happy for him because I would imagine this is boosting some confidence back into him. 00:17:17 Speaker 1: He goes from the second best player in Major League Baseball to arguably the worst in one season. 00:17:27 Speaker 2: So to see him do what he started to do in the last couple of days, how can you not feel for him? Because this looks like the Cal Raleigh that everybody knows. He's been on time. He's lifting the baseball. He's punishing fastballs. This is Cal Raleigh. And to see him be Cal Raleigh, or some version of it, even over the stretch of a couple days, I am happy for Cal. 00:17:52 Speaker 1: Here's what I wonder. because you and I talk about this a little bit, I think this is fine, a fine podcast topic. What, with Cal having the season he's having, and he did everything that came along with superstardom in the offseason, he has this big contract, he's in all these commercials now, he's the face of the franchise, he is marketing boy 101 for Seattle Mariners. And then he's having a season like this. Do we think that weighs on him a little bit, that he's invested so much into his marketing appearance, and now people are probably making fun of him for being in so many commercials and not playing well, and it's just like an eye roll through the back of your head watching that kind of stuff, and you're like, man, that doesn't look good. 00:18:49 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think Cal gets too caught up in what people are saying on social media about him, good or bad. I think he's pretty even-keeled in that way. But do I think that the pressure of the season and the pressure of the expectations have gotten to him a little bit? At some point in the season, I think the answer has to be yes. I don't know that it's happened every day to Cal, but... When, again, you come off a year like that and so much of the team is built around you and you're looked at as the leader, I mean, Cal's borderline the manager in that clubhouse. So when all that is put on you, I think, obviously, expectations can weigh on you. It can weigh on anybody. When you see stars press and have slumps of a couple weeks, I think it weighs on any star in the game. Now, Cal's slump has been a lot longer than a couple weeks this year. I think it's less about people getting on him about doing commercials. I don't think it's so much about... that. I think it's just more he knows what the expectations for himself and the team are. And when he eventually started to really spiral, it gets to you and it leads you to press and it leads you to try to dig your way out of your slump with every swing you take. I think it's more in that bucket. Does that make sense? 00:20:08 Speaker 1: Fair point. 00:20:09 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah. 00:20:10 Speaker 1: Totally fair. This week must be very fun for Cal Raleigh. He must feel good for the first time maybe since the first month of the season. 00:20:20 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:20:21 Speaker 1: Very, very realistic. And let me add this in too. Cal Raleigh, if you look at his stats in August, like it's getting better. Like his August alone looks more like the Cal Raleigh we're used to seeing. The problem is if... when you look at it this way, his last two games have done almost all of that heavy lifting. So I would, for an expectation standpoint for fans, pump the brakes a little bit if you're saying snap of the finger, Cal's back. Because it's been two insane games. Listen to how crazy this is. His WRC Plus for the season has gone up 10 points just in the last two days. And this is after... Hundreds of plate appearances. It's up 10 points in two games. Four home runs is a lot of heavy lifting for Cal, who, if you go, so I think the number is, he's well over 100 WRC plus for this month, right now. 00:21:29 Speaker 2: Oh, we were looking at this. Ahead of Tuesday's game, for the month, he was at about 130. But if you extrapolate it from August 1st to August 23rd, so right before the three home run game, It was in the 70s. So he was about 25 to 30% below league average for the month. And then a three homer game puts him way over the top. 00:21:48 Speaker 1: AKA, he was about where he's been the entire season. 00:21:51 Speaker 2: Right. Pretty much. 00:21:53 Speaker 1: And then I'm sure that WRC plus number is now higher after he hits another home run tonight. 00:21:58 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:21:59 Speaker 1: So it's great to see from Cal Raleigh that he's back hitting those home runs. But let's not declare him back yet. If he finishes out the week really strong and we see a two-week stretch with Cal Raleigh where he's maybe popping a home run every other game, then maybe we can start talking about what the impact of a rejuvenated Cal Raleigh will have in September. 00:22:24 Speaker 2: Much like the team, you've got to see more. The team hasn't shown you enough yet to declare them back. Cal Raleigh has not shown you enough to declare him back. You can be excited about what's gone on in the last few days. I think that's totally fair. It is totally fair. People should be excited when the team wins. That's simple. People should be excited when Cal Raleigh has a three homer game, which he'd never done before, by the way. But again, the team has played such bad baseball for so much of the year that I can't be making these overarching proclamations after a short sample size. You just can't. It's just like how when people get on us for calling the season over, when they have a bad stretch of a handful of games early in the year. Well, it's the same thing. That's what I turn back on people now. You can be excited. And you should be excited. When your favorite player plays well and your favorite team wins, you should always be excited. But to make overarching, bigger storyline, potential conclusions out of this, it's too early. Like, you've got to see a lot more. 00:23:27 Speaker 1: All right, before we get to a couple other points we want to talk about on this podcast, I want to tell you guys about Emerald Queen Casino's summer lineup of shows. Up next this weekend, Pete Davidson visits EQC on August 28th, Bobby Lee on September 4th, Joe Coy live on September 5th, and then Tower of Power on September 10th. Get your tickets today at emeraldqueen.com. Emerald Queen Casino is the entertainment capital of the Northwest, and while you're there, you can take your night to the next level at Slough Hall Steakhouse. Rooftop dining at Emerald Queen gives you mountain-to-sound views, paired with premium steaks and creative cocktails. You'll just have to see it to believe it. Come by Friday and Sunday from 4 to 10 p.m., and Saturday from 4 to 11 p.m. Get your reservation today on OpenTable or by calling 253- 441-3101. That's 253-441-3101. I do have one more positive note I want to go on for this podcast in terms of someone who has really rejuvenated himself this month. It's not the perfect version of Josh Naylor, but Josh Naylor's August 1st certainly plays. He's essentially turned himself into Louisa Rise at his peak. This month, Josh Naylor, this is prior to tonight's game, is slashing 329, 383, 452 with a 141 WRC +. 00:24:54 Speaker 2: You know, it's not the perfect fit for a first baseman. 00:24:57 Speaker 1: I would prefer my first baseman, especially on this team, to hit for more power. But Josh Naylor, who's dealing with an extreme power outage this season, has gotten his contact rate back up to be a very, very, very effective hitter again this month. 00:25:14 Speaker 2: And factor in that he's probably going to swipe 30 bases again. So you're right, it's not your prototypical first baseman, but it's yet another example of your star doing enough to start to try to put himself back on track. And this is a bigger sample than Cal, because Naylor's been doing this for a month. Again, is it the perfect prototype first baseman? 00:25:35 Speaker 1: No. 00:25:35 Speaker 2: But at this point from your stars, you just need production. I don't really care how it comes at this point. You need production out of your stars. And if Naylor dealing with the injuries he's dealing with between the neck injury now and the wrist injury, if this is how he's going to put up some production and help the team win, then you take it at this point, even if it looks a little different than typical Josh Naylor, because you need him to hit. And in a way, while it's not with a lot of power, he is hitting. 00:26:03 Speaker 1: Even if you go back to June 1st, The average and the on-base have been totally fine. The strikeout rate's under 12%. The walk rate is slightly below league average. The only thing you can currently ding Josh Naylor on is that he's not hitting for enough power. He's not really doing a ton of damage. So this is now, if you go back to June 1st, this is roughly a three-month sample size where you have June, July, and August in here. He has a grand total of 18 extra base hits in three months. That's not a lot. That's less than... What is that? Seven? That's less than seven extra base hits every month. Which is not a ton. But he is being flexible and he's doing essentially what he can with what he's been given this year. This is kind of who Josh Naylor has been in his career. We talked about him when the Mariners acquired him. He will do different things on a year-to-year basis to have his value. 00:27:01 Speaker 2: Look at this. So.. 00:27:03 Speaker 1: Just for the people who are sort of unfamiliar or don't remember this conversation, in 2023 with Cleveland, Josh Kneeler hit over 300. He slugged nearly 500. He smacked, what, 17 home runs that season, right? 127 WRC +, the second-best mark of his season besides what he did last year. Then you go to the next season in 2024. Josh Dillard's average drops by over 60 points. It drops 65 points to a 243 batting average. But you know what he does? He hits 31 home runs. Two different things. A lot of contact, and then the next season, a lot of power. And then you go to the season right after that, which is 2025, when the Mariners acquire him. His strikeout rate drops back down. He hits near 300 again. But this time he ups his power a little bit to 20 home runs. And he has the best overall WRC plus of his entire career. And then we have this season where in that last stretch of this month, he's back hitting at about 330 with almost no power and turning into a Luisa Rise type contact hitter. This is kind of what Josh Kneeler does. 00:28:18 Speaker 2: It's like this. 00:28:19 Speaker 1: He rides the wave. He's like a surfer, constantly going up and down. 00:28:24 Speaker 2: So what would the right terminology for this be? He's inconsistently consistent? Or he puts up consistency in inconsistent ways. I think that's the way to put it. Because while it has not been much of a power surge for Naylor this year, after having a lot of power in his game last year, he's now putting up offensive production over the last three months in a different way. 00:28:48 Speaker 1: The best way I would have frame it is that he's flexible to being productive. He's always finding a way to be productive. 00:28:56 Speaker 2: Even though again, even, and, and he is doing this while battling some injuries. I know he doesn't like to talk about injuries. He basically won't talk about his injuries, but I think everybody knows he's dealing with injuries. Again, he's at, he's got the wrist thing. He's got the neck thing. Now he is battling injuries, but he is still finding ways to be productive regardless. And at this point, that's just what you have to take from him. I wish he was hitting for more power. But if he's going to be productive in some way, shape, or form offensively in the final few months or final few weeks even of the season, then you live with it. 00:29:33 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:29:34 Speaker 2: And by the way, so, like, you combine all these players together now, and you're starting to see a real crop of these guys carry their weight. We'll see what happens with Cal, but at least over the last few days, he's really started to swing it. Naylor, as you just talked about over the last couple months has been productive in a different way. Randy's been about as consistent as you can be offensively over the course of the entire year. Dom's continued to hit. So like all of a sudden, now you have this group of players that's really come together to play some good baseball. August for Cole Young, if you want to throw him into this, hasn't been great offensively, but he continues to play good defense. He hit a home run the other night. He's getting close to a 20 home run season. And he is in one way or another found a way to carry value in his own right throughout the course of the year. So you're starting to find value across the board with some of these position players. 00:30:29 Speaker 1: Well, then you tap into Julio, who has been about 10% above league average in the month of August. Where, I mean, you could see a scenario against a crop of really bad pitchers in September that he exceeds, and then he hits really well. We saw the hot stretch for Julio in May. We haven't seen a whole lot since then. Oh, and by the way, I mean, if Brennan Donovan manages to make it a month without getting injured, you have him too. And he was hitting well before he got beaned by a ball in the cage. Which, by the way, can we talk about this for a second? 00:31:06 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:31:07 Speaker 1: So the story on Brendan Donovan, if you weren't on Twitter the last couple of days on how he actually got a concussion. He was in the cage before an at-bat. And... How Justin Hollander was describing it is that the guys really ramp it up before they go into an at-bat. They want to get it as close as possible to a live A-B in there in the cage before they go out and they face live pitching. I don't think it was clarified whether or not it was a machine or a person throwing to Brennan Donovan. I'm guessing it was a person because machines don't really misfire like that. Well.. 00:31:48 Speaker 2: And I'm sure the Mariners aren't going to say who it was. No, they're never going to do that. Throw somebody under the bus and let angry Mariners fan on Twitter just absolutely destroy them. 00:32:00 Speaker 1: Yeah. So Brandon Donovan was in the cage taking BP without a helmet and got beamed in the head and has a concussion. 00:32:14 Speaker 2: Guys, if the Mariners don't make the playoffs... we're going to have a laundry list of storylines to rehash by the end of the year. I mean, the amount of ridiculous stories that have come out this year, nuts. And by the way, when I say angry Mariners fan would be pissed, I'm not even saying he's totally wrong for being pissed. It's just like, he's always the account these days that pops up when you see an angry group, like a pissed off group of Mariners fans. Yeah. 00:32:42 Speaker 1: And I know what everyone's going to say to this. And I, and I actually agree. I don't really know why Brendan Donovan wasn't wearing a helmet in the cage. I don't really see what the downside of it is. 00:32:53 Speaker 2: Well, and here's where I am with people that he should have been wearing a helmet. It would be one thing if Brendan Donovan was in the cage doing front flips. 00:33:04 Speaker 1: Off. 00:33:05 Speaker 2: Yeah, it was doing front flips in the cage. And what I mean by front flips is, for those who don't know all the baseball terminology, is Somebody sitting down on a bucket behind the L screen and they're underhanding you batting practice, which is just to get swings in, to get your work in, to get reps in. That's not ramping things up and seeing live at bats and seeing velocity inside a cage before you get ready to hit. Like if you were hitting front flips off, like with somebody throwing them to you in the cage, all right, you're not going to wear a helmet. I think a lot of people from high school to college to the big leagues, Don't wear helmets while sitting in the cage doing front flips. If you were to hit a line drive off the L screen and it came back and hit you in the head, that's such a freak accident that, okay, what are you going to do? Like, that's one in a million. But when you want to ramp it up to essentially live at bats in the batting cage before a game starts and somebody is throwing the ball really hard, a human, a person, who's not going to be perfectly accurate, I'm not really understanding why a helmet isn't being worn. 00:34:14 Speaker 1: Got me. That was my question. I know the guys, when they're on the field hitting, don't wear helmets for batting practice, which one could argue and make the case that they should be wearing it then as well, but they're not really ramping up that hard on the field. The batting practice is tossed at maximum 75 miles an hour, and it's all mostly thrown at the belt buckle. 00:34:44 Speaker 2: Right. 00:34:44 Speaker 1: For the most part. The only case you could really make on the field is like if they foul one off the turtle and it comes back and bonks him in the head. But the odds of that happening are very low. The odds of it happening in the batting cage for Brendan Donovan also are very low. But I just don't understand why not. And like maybe it's just cool to not wear a batting helmet. But I'll tell you what Brendan Donovan's not doing from now on in the cage before a game. Not wearing a batting helmet. Yeah. 00:35:12 Speaker 2: I'm going to guess he's changed his philosophy on this moving forward. 00:35:17 Speaker 1: Like, what's the risk? Especially now. Like, the team needs you. The team wants your bat in the lineup. And that's how you get hurt. Like, this is something that's preventable. There's something different between an injury like this and, like, slipping and falling down your stairs, for example, which is, been an injury that has impacted major league baseball players before and severely gotten them hurt. There's like not much you can do about that, but like being in the cage feels like there's a little bit more control. 00:35:52 Speaker 2: TJ is not kidding about that. By the way, you remember about 10 years ago, Derek Holland tripped over his cat and he fell down a flight of stairs and missed the season. I mean, that was a ridiculous. I think that's exactly what I was thinking of. 00:36:03 Speaker 1: In that moment. 00:36:03 Speaker 2: That was a crazy storyline. Well, anyway, I'm going to bet either Brendan Donovan is going to wear a helmet in the cage now or the Mariners are going to make sure he does. 00:36:14 Speaker 1: The Mariners are going to make sure that all of their players taking ramped up batting practice in the batting cage are wearing helmets. 00:36:23 Speaker 2: I mean, it's just such a bummer because you just haven't been able to rely on Donovan all year. He just hasn't been on the field enough. 00:36:31 Speaker 1: And out of all of his injuries this year, this one is by far the most preventable. 00:36:35 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, guys, Brendan Donovan's played 39 games this year. It's not enough. It's not even close to enough. Can't rely on it. 00:36:46 Speaker 1: The only thing that makes that number redeemable is that Durangelo Sanja hasn't come up and been insanely good for the Cardinals this year. If Durangelo came up and joined the rotation and was dominating... You'd be looking at your 39 games of Brennan Donovan right now, and the fact the Mariners have been dealing with even more pitching injuries at the moment, and you'd be like, man, wouldn't that be nice to have? Like, fortunate for the Mariners, that's not as much of an issue. He's still like more than 39 games. I will say, our guy Ty Peet is having a great year. He's played 14 games. 00:37:23 Speaker 2: So he got moved up to AA, which he's in AA at 20 years old. That's pretty good. That's amazing. 00:37:29 Speaker 1: Given the state he was at last year in Everett, I'm so happy for him. 00:37:33 Speaker 2: Yeah. Now, again, we'll see how he does in AA, but man, in Peoria this year, like Peoria, Illinois, the Cardinals high team, he OPS 981. He was crushing the ball. 00:37:48 Speaker 1: Like for context, he was going to set the Northwest League record for strikeouts last year. 00:37:54 Speaker 2: But he is really hit this year. Now, I'm curious to check Ty's splits, because a big thing for him is what he's done against lefties. Okay, well, he is still not exactly pulverizing the ball against lefties. Against lefties this year, his OPS is still under 600. I don't want to deem the guy a platoon bat at 20 years old. That's not fair. But he's hitting. He's hitting, and he was good enough to get moved up to AA by the Cardinals this year. Point being... It was still the right move to trade for Brendan Donovan. Nobody's taking that away. But he hasn't been able to be relied upon. It's just the case. And you've needed him. Yeah. I would conclude all this with the following. The way the Mariners have started to play in the last couple weeks, I am starting to build more and more confidence in the play of the players. I think that's fair. We're going to have to see more. but I am starting to build a little bit of confidence in the way the players are playing on field in game. Is that fair? 00:38:57 Speaker 1: Totally fair. I was thinking the exact same thing watching tonight. 00:39:02 Speaker 2: Now the flip side of that is let's not get it twisted. The confidence I have in the dugout and the manager is zero. Nothing's changing in that regard. The players I'm starting to have more confidence in. 00:39:16 Speaker 1: We don't, Think right now, when push comes to shove, this team is going to be put in the right spot to succeed when it matters most. 00:39:23 Speaker 2: Nope. 00:39:24 Speaker 1: The players can make that decision easier, and there's less likely of a chance that there's a... fuck up sometime late in the game in a crucial spot but even with a really good baseball team as last year showed there are big decisions that come up late in games and the Mariners are going to need that down the stretch more than ever this year given that they don't have a margin of error of a great being a good baseball team So you're going to have to make some good decisions. And like, there's just not, there's nothing to show us without hundreds of games of examples of better decision-making. That's going to convince Lyle and I that that's going to fix itself suddenly in the playoffs. Cause we've had two years to look at that kind of stuff and it just hasn't changed at all. 00:40:13 Speaker 2: At all. And games are so often one on the margins in the playoffs. Saw it last year. And last year in the playoffs, we saw the players overcome Dan Wilson, nearly losing them the series against the Tigers with what happened in game one and partly in game four. They lost them the Blue Jays series. Like he lost them a trip to the World Series. And that was with a team much better than this year's team. So the players can outplay some of that stuff, but they're going to have to significantly outplay it if they get to the playoffs. And by the way, we'll talk about this in further detail if it gets to this point. But if the Mariners get into the playoffs with 80 or 81 wins or less than that, it should be treated like an 80 to 81 win season. Not a team that, quote unquote, made the playoffs back to back years. In other words, changes should be made as if you won 80 to 81 games, not job security being held because you made the playoffs in the worst American League West of all time. Summer always changes how I get dressed. I want clothes that are lighter and more breathable. Things that are easy, but also still put together. That's why I keep coming back to Quince. They focus on high quality essentials that look and feel amazing. Think breathable linen and soft organic cotton. Well made basics, but without the luxury markup. It's that rare balance where everything feels elevated, but still effortless. Quince European Linen Pants and Shirts are the perfect warm weather upgrade to add to your rotation. starting at just $ 34. Their tees are soft and easy to wear, and their lightweight cotton sweaters are perfect for cooler summer nights. Everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands. They work directly with ethical factories and cut out the middlemen. That way you're paying for quality, not brand markup. Quince goes way beyond clothing. Custom upholstered sofas, ceramic cookware, and premium bedding are also additional options. It's the kind of brand that you end up recommending to everyone for everything. Personally, I'm a big fan of the men's t-shirts. I like to wear a lot of t-shirts during the summer, specifically well-fitted t-shirts that are also light for the warm weather. And that's what Quince offers you. They're well put together, they're stylish, and they're perfect for those summer months. Elevate your summer wardrobe. Go to quince.com slash marine layer for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's quince.com slash marine layer for free shipping and 365 day returns. quince.com slash marine layer. 00:42:38 Speaker 1: Don't look up at the banner. Banner, the banner hangs, but that's, the only real meaning of an AL West champion championship banner this year, in my opinion, because it's, it's just not the same. You can't measure that to the other ones up there and, and point and say, well, look, well, look, we have that. No, I don't think so. Oh, let me, let me just make this kind of simple of how I feel about this. Cause I know, like you said, we'll talk about this later. Like the expectations for the post season this year. And I honestly think loud, I know Fangraph's odds don't suggest this right now. I still think it's more likely than not this team makes the postseason, given the schedule. Given the schedule and the amount of games back. It's just kind of hard for me to think they're not going to make the playoffs at this point. But just because the current version of the team isn't as good as the team last year, that doesn't mean that you lower the expectations if you do make the postseason. No, I'm holding them to the preseason expectations if they make the postseason. 00:43:45 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:43:46 Speaker 1: Because that's a standard. 00:43:48 Speaker 2: Yes, correct. Like, they should have eight more wins right now. I understand that Cal has not had a good season, and Naylor hasn't had a great season at certain points. And the rotation hasn't been as good as it's often been hyped up to be. But there have been so many games lost. by decisions this year. Like, I mean, it was the same thing last year. Like Dan Wilson's lost them at least a handful of games, if not two handfuls of games on his own this year. So let's be clear. If they make the playoffs, it'll be confidence in the players and none in the manager and the decision-making none. 00:44:24 Speaker 1: Unless they show us something drastically different. And the players have the best offense in baseball on September and the pitching staff's like top 10. then, yeah, it's going to be a bit of a different tone than last year. This will be an interesting experiment for us. This final five-week, four-and-a-half-week stretch of the season, if this team makes the playoffs, what our tone is going to sound like when we reach the finish line. I think a lot of it, some of it's going to sound the same like what we're talking about right now. But I'm curious... what the other parts are going to sound like. 00:44:58 Speaker 2: I think if the Mariners survived this road trip and we enter that September schedule, I think a big chunk of that podcast in a week or so is going to be a very real conversation that the two of us have about legitimate benefits and, and non-benefits of this team making the playoffs. And I know it might sound like loser talk, but I will say two things. Number one, as I always, always make clear, I am a loser. So I can have loser talk. And number two, legitimate benefits versus non-benefits to the Mariners for doing so. So if they survive this road trip, I think that's going to be a pretty interesting conversation. But like, I mean, I will at least say this right now as we're on the topic, which is like part of the reason it is so hard for me to fully buy back into this. Like this is, this is transparency. We always tell you guys we're going to be transparent and not lie to you about how we're feeling. Here is truthfully, honestly, how I'm feeling. It is very hard for me to try to buy all the way back into this team because I think the manager destroys the ceiling of this team so greatly that it's hard to really believe they can get to where they want to get to and reach the mountaintop with him there. Even if the players start to play better and the team starts to turn it around. And that's why I think this conversation is going to be pretty interesting after this road trip. 00:46:20 Speaker 1: The players would have to play to a level we've never seen before to overcome that, I think. based on what we've seen this season. 00:46:27 Speaker 2: Yes. And, and again, that's where I'm at. That is transparent, transparently where my feelings are. I wish they weren't like, I really do. I really wish that I could just be like some of the other fans out there that are just so happy about this Philly series for every good reason. And so happy that, you know, just to like the people that want to already call Cal Raleigh back. I wish I could feel that way. And I wish I could just sit here and, And say the same thing. He's back. This is amazing. I wish I could have the Rick Riz persona where everything is happy-go-lucky. But we're transparent with you guys. I'm not going to lie to you guys about how I'm feeling. And how I'm feeling is I think the manager destroys the ceiling of this team, even with the players starting to play better. So if you have suggestions for me, you listening, feel free to DM us and leave us messages in the comments about how to best channel these emotions about... How I can best just focus on what is currently the very positive play of the players on the field without letting the ingredients of the manager mix into it. Because I don't know how you really separate the two because they do go hand in hand. But I would love to know how you can separate them apart and just focus on the players. 00:47:44 Speaker 1: People are probably just going to suggest therapy. 00:47:47 Speaker 2: I mean, probably. And I wouldn't blame people for saying that. Like, I mean, honestly, it's like what we talked about on Monday's pod where it's probably not the craziest idea how you mentioned how, Lyle, we're around all of our closest friends in Santa Barbara this weekend and one of our very good friends is getting married and we're all in the wedding party. And, you know, you would think so much of that can just all be dedicated to that. And a lot of it was. But as TJ and all my friends would tell you, I think I said the name Dan Wilson over 200 times throughout the weekend with a bunch of non-Mariners fans. And I'm just going to spoil it for people. It wasn't exactly in a positive light. I know I'm going to shock the world with that. I mean, yes. Like, am I a psychopath? Yes. But I'm also being transparent about it. So, yes, if you have suggestions, please leave them for me in the comments. 00:48:40 Speaker 1: Lyle said the name Dan Wilson more often than the bride and groom's names were mentioned. 00:48:46 Speaker 2: Is that right? 00:48:47 Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, by far. 00:48:50 Speaker 2: Again, this is where we're at. Like, we're not lying about our feelings. And this is real. Like, it just, as I said on Monday, it just drives me off the deep end. All of it. The decisions, the press conferences, like, the communication. I want the players to keep playing as well as possible so we can just focus on that and outplay the decisions. Because, well, okay, last thing, last thing. Because, by the way, even in the stretch where they've been winning a bunch of series, like, we've still seen five atrocious decisions be made in that stretch. Like, the Brewers blowout game and then the Kate Anderson start and the Sunday Bryce Miller start and letting Jose Ferrer throw... an inning and two thirds and a blowout. I mean, or at least in like a five run game. 00:49:44 Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. I am. I am worried. 00:49:49 Speaker 2: The manager destroys the ceiling of this team. I hope the players outplay it so much that they prove us wrong. 00:49:55 Speaker 1: What would you judge as surviving this upcoming road trip? 00:50:01 Speaker 2: I think three and three. Is that fair? Maybe, maybe two and four. Although again, at two and four, you're losing two more games of ground. I mean, are you sure? 00:50:13 Speaker 1: I mean, you could go two and four and lose only like a game of ground. 00:50:17 Speaker 2: Okay. So you're talking about losing ground in the division or in the wild card. I am looking at the overall division. All right. But the truth is, even if you're going to have a bad record and you are a team in the American league West and win the American league West, you're not going to do it by being five to seven games under 500. At some point, the Mariners are going to have to get much closer to that 500 total, somewhere they haven't been in a while. And they're still not close to it. So, again, as you get into September and you lose two more games of ground in your record by going two and four on this road trip, like, it's still a big hole, man. Okay, so the Mariners would have to go what in September to get back to 500? It would be the best stretch of play they've had throughout the season by far. 00:51:08 Speaker 1: So let's say, so as we're recording this Tuesday night, let's say the Mariners lose the finale to the Phillies. They only win two of three in the series. 00:51:17 Speaker 2: Okay. 00:51:18 Speaker 1: So that would put the Mariners at 64 and 70 heading onto the road trip. And then they would finish that road trip 66 and 76. No, 66 and 74, eight games below. 00:51:29 Speaker 2: Yeah. Eight games below as you go into September. Let me read you the Mariners' record by month so far. 00:51:40 Speaker 1: April, 13-13. May, 15-13. June, 13-14. 00:51:40 Speaker 2: July, 9-15. And August right now, 11-11. And if you were 11-11 and then you lose the home finale against the Phillies, it's 11-12. And then if you go 2-4, it would be 13-16. I mean, you're talking about a stretch that they haven't even come close to playing this year. I don't think you can afford to lose two more games of ground by going two and four. I think three and three is surviving. 00:52:10 Speaker 1: I just don't think the Rangers or the Astros are going to do that much better than that. 00:52:15 Speaker 2: But I also don't think you're winning a division with 74 wins. You can probably do it with 80, 81. I don't think you're going to see it happen at 73 to 74 wins. I mean, that's too low. So 74 wins is a what record in.. 00:52:26 Speaker 1: I mean... They're going to have to win more than 74 games because if they went two and four on this road trip, 74 wins is only eight more wins in September, which they're absolutely doing against this stretch. So it's 17 more games after this road trip. There are 29 right now. No, it's more. 22 games. 00:52:53 Speaker 2: It's more. 00:52:54 Speaker 1: 22 games. 00:52:55 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:52:56 Speaker 1: One game against the Phillies, six games against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. and then 22 of the easiest games on your schedule to close out the season. 00:53:06 Speaker 2: So, you'd roughly need to go, what, like 15-7 in September? 00:53:15 Speaker 1: They could probably, I mean... you would think they could go 15 and seven against the Rockies and the A's. Sure. 00:53:22 Speaker 2: But, but they haven't proven to be able to do that all year. 00:53:25 Speaker 1: No, they haven't. 00:53:26 Speaker 2: That's what I'm getting at. I don't, I don't think you can lose two more games on this road trip. If you are asking what the expectation is to hold ground for me, it's to stay where you're at and go three and three. Sure. 00:53:36 Speaker 1: But they played like a non-playoff team all season. They can't play like a non-playoff team in September and then make the playoffs. They would have to, They'd have to play like a playoff team for a month to make it. Yeah. 00:53:49 Speaker 2: Yes. But they have not had an eight game over 500 month or anything close to it this year. I don't think you can afford to lose a lot more ground. 00:53:58 Speaker 1: They've had one eight game over 500 stretch and it all happened in a row. 00:54:02 Speaker 2: Right. Exactly. And again, look at some of their other months of schedules in June. Maybe you weren't playing the Rockies and the A's and the angels a bunch, but You were playing a lot of teams that you should have been beaten up on, and you didn't. The Orioles, the Nationals, the Pirates. I mean, you had chances. You had the Red Sox when they were down bad. You didn't capitalize. You're really going to have to play your best stretch. 00:54:29 Speaker 1: I'll take 3-3 then. That's fine. 3-3 is a survival. I don't think 2-4, though, is season ending. 00:54:36 Speaker 2: Maybe not. But... The Mariners cannot go 1-5 or 0-6. That's for sure. 00:54:43 Speaker 1: No. They can't get swept in any of these series. Like, for example, if you get swept in that Blue Jays series, like, wild card's done. 00:54:50 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:54:51 Speaker 1: You just lost six games on the Blue Jays. The Mariners are currently sitting how many games behind the Blue Jays specifically? All right. Well, the Mariners are right now tied with the Blue Jays in the sandings. So then they would lose all of– they would fall three games back. 00:55:07 Speaker 2: Yeah. who didn't play better ball in august man so they're they're starting to figure it out too that's not going to be an easy series and okay let me correct myself from earlier the mariners did win the fenway series last year but that was the first time since 2014 history has not been kind to this franchise at fenway park. 00:55:26 Speaker 1: No and definitely not against a team a good red sox team which last year's red sox team was not that good yeah. 00:55:34 Speaker 2: Well they made the playoffs They made the playoffs. The Red Sox? The Red Sox? Yeah. Remember, it was Red Sox-Yankees in the wildcard series. And then Cam Schlittler happened. Oh, okay. 00:55:48 Speaker 1: Well, I kind of barely... Yeah, I mean, wildcard series, meh. 00:55:53 Speaker 2: Might be what the Mariners are playing for this year. 00:55:55 Speaker 1: Yeah, the 80-win Mariners in the wildcard series. 00:55:58 Speaker 2: Whoop-dee. Well, exactly why I say if this team either wins... a wildcard berth and loses in the wildcard series, or they win a terrible American league West and get boat race. Like this should be treated like a under 500 season or a 500 season in the off season. It should not be treated like, Oh, you made the playoffs. 00:56:17 Speaker 1: You need to treat it. How every other team in major league baseball treats wildcard series. 00:56:21 Speaker 2: Yes. 00:56:22 Speaker 1: Alex Cora for the red Sox made a wildcard series last year. And then look what happened to him this year. 00:56:27 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:56:29 Speaker 1: And I don't think, I don't think, uh, I don't think Craig Breslow was like, Oh, Great, great. We made the wild card last year and lost. What a success. 00:56:39 Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree. I am happy for a lot of the players that are starting to play better ball. I really am. I'm happy Andres Munoz has really found his footing in the second half. I'm very happy for Cal Raleigh. I'm glad to see that Cole Young has had such a good sophomore season and is getting close to 20 homers. I'm very glad to see some of these players really figuring it out in some stretch or another. Because you know these guys want it for as badly as they play. You know they want to win. But we're going to need to see a lot more. I'll leave it at that. I'm happy for the players and the success they've had. Don't get that twisted. We root for these guys. For the players specifically, obviously. Let's say that. 00:57:25 Speaker 1: I'm in 100% agreement. 00:57:26 Speaker 2: Yeah. So good for those guys. 00:57:28 Speaker 1: Seriously. 00:57:29 Speaker 2: Especially Cal. Because we love Cal. And obviously nobody... has had a tougher year than he's had. And I'm sure he's been incredibly tough on himself. So I'm happy to see him start to climb out of this. Not all the way. He's not back. We're not proclaiming that, but I'm glad to see him have a nice few games. 00:57:44 Speaker 1: Were you trying to make a pun with that? 00:57:46 Speaker 2: Oh, what did I say? Tough. 00:57:48 Speaker 1: Like Cal's been having a, Cal's been having a tough one. 00:57:52 Speaker 2: No, sorry. You know what? We haven't had to hear a hashtag tough one tonight in the last couple of days. It's always fun. But then again, The memes are also fun when that happens. 00:58:06 Speaker 1: Well, lucky you, dog. I'm sure we'll get one here soon. 00:58:09 Speaker 2: Yeah, probably. All right. We'll see how they go from here. We'll see how they wrap up the Philly series. Obviously, they're going to embark on a pretty important road trip, and that will tell us a lot. The end of August will tell us a lot. I think that's fair. All right, that'll just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full-form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure to download these episodes if you're listening. Go rate and review. Please leave it five stars. It helps a ton. Make sure you also go hit subscribe on YouTube if you're watching. You can find all our stuff at our website at marinelayerpod.com, between our podcast merch, Patreon. It's all over there. And then follow... Follow us on social media, all our platforms, at MarineLayerPod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. Talk to you soon.