Episode 450: Does It Actually Benefit The Mariners To Miss The Playoffs?

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number 450 of the Marine Layer podcast. The Mariners get swept in embarrassing fashion in Toronto. We'll react to that and to Lazaro Montes getting called up to the Mariners this week. 00:00:11 Speaker 2: Reminder to you guys, before we start the podcast, make sure to go do us a favor and download these episodes if you're listening and rate and review five stars if you're listening. Go hit subscribe on YouTube if you're watching. You can also find all of this at our website. That's marinelayerpod.com. You can find our episodes, our merch, our Patreon. It's all on the website. And then find us all across social media too, at MarineLayerPod. 00:00:33 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling. And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording here on Sunday evening, August 30th. Another big series, another just flat, lifeless performance for the Mariners in Toronto this weekend. They get swept. Lyle? 00:01:07 Speaker 2: There's only one fitting way to start this, and it's the same way I did after the Brewers lost. So I'll just let the man take it away. What else would you like me to say other than that? 00:01:25 Speaker 1: I mean, can I remind people that the Mariners just got swept by a sub 500 team this weekend in Toronto? Like playoff contender technically, because this American league sucks, but it's like, oh, the Mariners are going to play a sub 500 team with nothing. Not the best roster in the world. Not the best pitching matchups in the world. Solid, but still not the best, especially given here on Sunday. And they absolutely dog walked the Mariners. Absolutely dog walked. I mean, just a lifeless weekend for this baseball team. 00:01:59 Speaker 2: I'm going to shrug my shoulders about Friday because you went up against the guy that might win the Cy Young and Dylan Seas. 00:02:05 Speaker 3: Look, has the Mariners offense been a absolute disaster? 00:02:09 Speaker 1: Yes. 00:02:09 Speaker 2: I'll shrug about Friday. I think we knew they weren't going to fare well against Soriano either. If you're a playoff team, you've got to hit guys like that, though. But yeah, say they lose the first two. 00:02:21 Speaker 3: Okay. 00:02:21 Speaker 1: I mean, they put themselves in position to win against Soriano. 00:02:24 Speaker 3: Yeah, they did. 00:02:25 Speaker 1: And then just went up 3-0, and then the life evaporated. 00:02:30 Speaker 3: Yeah, and we'll get to all that. 00:02:32 Speaker 2: But. 00:02:33 Speaker 3: Then on Sunday, I mean, that's the one I can't get out of my head. 00:02:36 Speaker 2: You let Unk Max Scherzer absolutely take you to the woodshed after throwing 50 innings all season, having an ERA. 00:02:47 Speaker 3: Of 7-7 as he started his outing. 00:02:49 Speaker 1: He had.... 00:02:53 Speaker 2: He threw seven innings for the first time in three years. And when you look at his final line for 42-year-old Max Scherzer, he had 10 punch-outs on one hit and one walk, 10 strikeouts against the team that had World Series expectations to start the year. Look, TJ and I are huge Max Scherzer fans. Max Scherzer has been one of the, maybe the coolest bullpen banner person we've gotten to do content with. 00:03:23 Speaker 3: And we love his game as a pitcher too. But I'm sorry. 00:03:25 Speaker 2: If you're just looking at the facts of the matchup, the Mariners should have been all over Max Scherzer on Sunday. And they got absolutely dog walked. 00:03:38 Speaker 1: Max Scherzer has struck out this season before today. 16% of batters, he walked 11%. And then he comes into the start with the Mariners. The Mariners backs up against the wall. The entire division face-planning around them every opportunity in the world to gain a game and give yourself some sort of semblance, like a slight increase in playoff hopes that are already dimming with every series that goes along, especially after the two big series wins the previous two series. You're like, okay. The first two games did not work out for us. We have a chance to redeem ourselves against a guy we should easily beat. And then Max Scherzer strikes out 10 and walks one and puts out his highest game score. Highest game score. I think it's a baseball reference that ranks game score. It's his highest game score in three seasons against you. At 42 years old, Lyle. 00:04:41 Speaker 3: TJ, I'm going to be real here. 00:04:43 Speaker 2: I don't have the exact data to back this up, but for as upper echelon and all-time pitcher as Max Scherzer is, because he is one of the greatest of all time, you put up seven innings of shutout ball, 10 punchouts, one hit, one walk. 00:05:00 Speaker 3: I'll flat out say it. 00:05:01 Speaker 2: That is likely one of the best starts of Max Scherzer's entire career. 00:05:05 Speaker 3: And guess what? 00:05:06 Speaker 2: He did it at 42 years old against the team that was told by everybody they could win the American League this year. And now we're at the end of August, and unk Max Scherzer is just burying you. 00:05:19 Speaker 3: Shout out to Max. Again, we really like Max. We do. He's been awesome to us. He's just an awesome dude. So you know what? Good for him. But for this Mariners team, my God, man. 00:05:31 Speaker 1: I was trying to look this up. Someone tweeted this out. I was trying to confirm and I couldn't find it. But someone did note that this game by game by game score for starting pitchers is top 20 in Max Scherzer's career today. I mean, he's got a 20 strikeout game. He's got a no hitter. He's got all these things. But no, at 42 years old, cooking the Seattle Mariners here on Sunday, August 30th, 2026, ranks in the top 20 of his entire career. It's just insane for a guy, even last year and the year before, you think, okay, he's on his way out. It's been a nice run for Max. The stuff is declining. He hasn't been able to stay totally healthy. 00:06:15 Speaker 3: Oh, no, man. 00:06:16 Speaker 1: He's still got more bullets in the chamber, and he came out there and shoved it down the Mariners' throat. You know, I thought I was pissed. I thought I would be more pissed after the ALCS start he had last year against the Mariners than I was today here on Sunday. But after that man completed seven shutout innings against the Mariners, you know what? At least the ALCS start he got pulled in the sixth inning. This man completed seven innings today. 00:06:42 Speaker 3: I can't say I'm more mad than after the ALCS. Because guess what? 00:06:46 Speaker 2: In the ALCS, you had a chance to legitimately win the pennant, and you got lit up by Max Scherzer at 41 years old. 00:06:54 Speaker 1: But also, if you remember, I tweeted out the clip again today of all the things I was mad at in that game. The list was long. You got individual thing after individual thing after individual thing that happened. Today it's like, no, you just got dog walked by Max Scherzer. 00:07:11 Speaker 2: Okay, yes, but the stakes of the ALCS I don't think can have you less pissed than this game. 00:07:19 Speaker 3: This team's cooked, let's be real. We won't officially.... 00:07:24 Speaker 2: Nothing's over till it's over, but this team's cooked. I can't sit here and be furious over Max Scherzer lighting them up today when they've just... shown for four months or five months of a season now that they just don't have what it takes. 00:07:38 Speaker 1: The most bizarre stat from today. I tweeted this out. I'm going to bring it back up here on the podcast. Entering today, Max Scherzer had a 14% whiff rate. So swing and miss rate on his fastball and a 21% swing and miss rate on his slider. The Mariners swung and missed at his fastball today. They threw almost half the time, 44% of the time. 44%, 30% more than his average. How does that happen? But the slider is worse. 21% average for the season. The Mariners swung and missed at that pitch. 71% of the time. A 50% increase swinging and missing against Max Scherzer's slider. The only thing that tells me, right there, Lyle, is that the Mariners did not show up ready to play today. They were not prepared for what was on the mound in Max Scherzer, and they could not execute a single thing offensively to save their lives. They did not know what was coming, and Max Scherzer, even at 42 years old, shows that he's still got it over whatever this Mariners lineup is right now. 00:08:51 Speaker 3: Yeah, tough one today. 00:08:53 Speaker 1: Well, tough series, actually. 00:08:55 Speaker 3: Oh, my bad. Sorry, yeah, Dan didn't say tough one today. He said tough series. You're right. 00:09:00 Speaker 1: No, he didn't say tough one. I thought he did say tough one. 00:09:02 Speaker 3: No, I think he said tough game, tough series. See, he's evolving. 00:09:06 Speaker 1: So he's changing around his verbiage a little bit. 00:09:09 Speaker 3: He's evolving, people. Earlier in the week, we got a tougher one today. 00:09:13 Speaker 2: So my question here is, as we're seeing the evolution of Dan Wilson press conferences all of a sudden from tough one to tougher one to tough game to tough series, the day the Mariners get eliminated, are we going to get a toughest one from Dan Wilson? 00:09:28 Speaker 1: But we're not going to hear from him. Oh, wait, no. On the last day of the season? 00:09:33 Speaker 3: Oh, yeah. 00:09:33 Speaker 1: Yes. 00:09:34 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:09:35 Speaker 1: They let him have an end-of-season press conference? Yeah. 00:09:39 Speaker 2: I even mean the day they get eliminated from contention. Like, that press conference after the game. Are we going to get a toughest one? 00:09:46 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:09:47 Speaker 3: Yeah. Are you saying yeah in your voice, or is that the Dan voice? Yeah. 00:09:51 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, if I was Dan's voice, it would be, yeah, you know. 00:09:55 Speaker 3: Oh, yeah. I forgot. My bad. 00:09:57 Speaker 2: Dude, the video of his press conference. today was a brutal watch. I mean, that looks like a man defeated. He's not making eye contact, and he's swaying, and he doesn't have answers. It just kind of shows you the life of this team at this point, dude. 00:10:17 Speaker 1: That was one of the worst series of the season. Objectively. I don't know how else we're supposed to like talk about this series. Well, actually, sorry, we haven't even talked about maybe as bad as Sunday was. Well, I think what happened on Saturday was just as bad with Edward Bazzardo. I mean, there, the lack of awareness has cost the Mariners so much this season. So when Edward Bazzardo was the bases loaded and, And he throws a ball to the backstop and he's covering home plate. 1-1 run already scores. Cal throws him the ball. And Bizzardo has no idea the other runner is coming around to score. And slides right by him. He catches the ball. And he's just standing there. Not tagging. And it's like... I was... So I was running some errands at this point. I had the game up on my phone in a men's warehouse. dead silent in there, dead silent. I let out one of the loudest laughs that echoed throughout the entire store as that play happened. I'm like, cause you're like, there's no way this is going to keep happening. There's no, it can't, it cannot get worse. And then it keeps getting worse. 00:11:28 Speaker 2: Have we considered the possibility that Edward Bazzardo was actually just trying to imitate Dan Wilson in real time. Because then on Sunday, this clip gets tweeted of Dan behind the plate in the ALCS back in 95, essentially doing the inverse of Bizzardo. It was just at the catcher's position where Dan let a pass ball get by him 30 years ago. One run scores, a second run comes around and scores. And Dan like doesn't even realize the runner's coming until after he's crossed home plate. 00:11:56 Speaker 1: You're able to chalk these things up as just things that happen. If they don't happen all the time, But now it's still like every single week in these huge, massive games that swing the game. That run, by the way, that Bazzardo could have very easily tagged out at home plate was the difference in the game. The Mariners lost by one run. Edward Bazzardo catches the ball, turns around, and tags the runner. Then it's a tie game. And the Mariners maybe could even squeak out that in extras. And the Mariners only lose two of three. We're still talking about a pretty pitiful performance here on Sunday. Regardless, it seemed like that's destined to happen. But at least you could have a game, and you would have gained a game this weekend. Dude, the AL West has lost 16 consecutive games as a division. It's like being handed to you on a platter where if you literally, in these series, you're either winning two of three or only losing two of three, you're still gaining ground on all these other teams because everyone's bad. But they can't even do that. 00:13:03 Speaker 3: It was 16 in a row entering Sunday because now here on Sunday. 00:13:06 Speaker 1: Until the Astros won. 00:13:07 Speaker 2: The Astros won and the Rangers won here on Sunday. So the Mariners are now five back in the division as they enter the 31st of August. So, yeah, because the Astros beat the Mets in two or three. Astros are taking care of business against bad teams. 00:13:21 Speaker 1: Are they? 00:13:23 Speaker 3: I mean, enough. They won two or three against the Mets. 00:13:26 Speaker 1: They're 500 at this point. That's all it takes. If the Mariners lose here on, when's their first game against the Red Sox? Tuesday? 00:13:33 Speaker 3: Monday. Oh, Monday. Yeah, okay. 00:13:36 Speaker 1: If they lose tomorrow, they're 10 games under. 00:13:39 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:13:40 Speaker 1: And then you're asking the Mariners to overcome of, at that point, it could be a six game. Did the Astros play tomorrow too? 00:13:50 Speaker 3: Do they play tomorrow? 00:13:50 Speaker 2: Regardless, you'd be having to come back from 10 games under. 500 entering the month of September. 00:13:55 Speaker 1: You would have to be coming back from 10 games under. 500 and either a five and a half or six game deficit. They do play tomorrow against the White Sox. So does that sound like something that's realistic? Even as bad as your schedule is, you would essentially have to repeat what you did last year in September to have any chance. And you can count on one hand how many times the Mariners have won 20 games in a month. as a franchise, you would have to bank on an outlier happening again for this to be salvaged in any way. And they've not shown us any ability to do that. 00:14:29 Speaker 2: They haven't had a stretch like that all year. I know they're about to play the worst teams in the league here in September, but again, you've had plenty of chances against bad teams all year to make your mark and to gain separation. 00:14:40 Speaker 3: They haven't done that. 00:14:42 Speaker 2: Like at this point, why would there be overarching belief that they can do that in September. Maybe they put together a winning record in September, but why in the world would anybody believe they can go 12 over 500 for the month? 00:14:57 Speaker 1: They can't even match last year's win total now. 00:15:00 Speaker 3: That's insane. 00:15:01 Speaker 1: They're at 74 losses right now. The most wins they can have on the season right now is 88 wins. September hasn't even started. 00:15:09 Speaker 3: Dude, that's nuts. 00:15:11 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:15:11 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:15:12 Speaker 1: Dude, I was shocked when I saw on Friday, I was like, oh, Shit. Yep. 00:15:17 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:15:17 Speaker 1: That's just how it is right now. 00:15:19 Speaker 2: When there's mental mistakes like that happening constantly, I don't know how many different times and different ways we can say this because we've said it a million times throughout the course of the year. Lack of focus comes back on the coaches. There's physical things that you can chalk up to the players, strikeout rate or defense that is not up to par. That just might be a player's profile and that you can put on a player. 00:15:45 Speaker 3: Lack of focus? 00:15:45 Speaker 1: It could be on the coaches to put him out there. 00:15:48 Speaker 3: Well, sure. 00:15:49 Speaker 2: But look, we're going to talk about Laz Montez a little later, right? And for those waiting around to hear about Laz, we'll get to him. 00:15:57 Speaker 1: I mean, I was even thinking about J.P. Crawford today. 00:16:02 Speaker 3: Well, sure. 00:16:03 Speaker 2: But at this point, J.P. Crawford's defense is what it is. And Colt Emerson's hurt and Donovan's hurt. there's not many other options other than having JP Crawford out at shortstop. So that's that you can put on a player. Cause he just doesn't have the physical capabilities to be the shortstop. He once was JP Crawford, but lack of focus and ill prepared baseball. That's on the coaches. 00:16:30 Speaker 1: Yep. I think this is going to lead into our discussion that I think we were trying to save until after the Red Sox series, uh, to see where the Mariners were in the playoff race. But I think this conversation is now appropriate to have after the Mariners get swept by the Blue Jays. Before we get to that conversation, I want to tell you guys about Emerald Queen Casino's upcoming lineup of shows. 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Do you think the Mariners benefit at all by making the playoffs this season? 00:17:51 Speaker 2: I'm honestly going to let that question just sit in silence here for a minute for people, so I'll give it five seconds or so. Does it benefit the Mariners in any way to make the playoffs? It's a very good question. Because as we just saw, the Mariners played a sub-500 team that are not even in the American League playoff picture in the Blue Jays and got swept. They let 42-year-old Max Scherzer eat them alive. So I want people to ask themselves a very real question. And I will preface it with this. I'll say the same thing we said Friday when we previewed this idea a little bit. Is this loser talk? Yes, but let me make it very clear. 00:18:27 Speaker 3: I am a loser. 00:18:30 Speaker 2: And number two, there is actually a real discussion to be had here. And the discussion is, do the Mariners benefit from making the playoffs? Because I know they haven't made the playoffs many times at all in the history of the franchise, but this year was never supposed to be about just ending a drought or making the playoffs. That's what 2022 was about. 22 was about ending the drought. This year had World Series expectations written all over it, and now it's chalked up to be the worst season in the history of the franchise. So if you were going to make the playoffs this year, would you rather have this team just make the wild card round and lose? 00:19:12 Speaker 3: Because be realistic with yourselves. 00:19:14 Speaker 2: Could any team get hot in baseball and go on a run? 00:19:17 Speaker 3: Sure. 00:19:18 Speaker 2: But be realistic with yourselves. Look up and down at the rest of the teams in the American League. If the Mariners were to win the West, they would get a series right now against the Guardians, who have played really, really well in the last couple weeks. And even if you win that series, then you're going up against one of the wildcard teams in the Yankees or the Red Sox. So if that's the case, is it worth a wild card exit or a division round dumping from one of those teams because the goal is to reach the mountaintop i'm going on here but if if the goal is to reach the mountaintop i don't know if you're going to see the changes necessary that are going to need to be made to get to the mountaintop if they just make the wild card round and lose. 00:20:03 Speaker 1: The only thing that makes this worth it is if they in my opinion win the world series Because let's think about this. Ask yourself this question. If this team even makes the World Series for the first time in franchise history, based on what we've seen from now a large sample of this coaching staff and this front office regime in these two seasons, do you trust their ability to make it back? Let's lay out the facts of what has happened the last two seasons. The Mariners in 2025 got a historic season from Cal Raleigh, which made them a I'd say good team from April through the end of July. Then they acquired Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. It took them about a month to get on track and that turned them into an arguably pretty good to great team, I'll say. Like pretty hard to poke holes in that team last year at the end. And then everything seemed to come together in a perfect storm with two guys fitting you as well as possible at the trade deadlines. And you made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS. Now we have the 2026 season, where the Mariners have largely been under. 500 a lot of the season. The trade deadline did not shake out in their favor. There were not a lot of good players available, which means the roster is left at crunch time in a state of being well below average, with players across the board underperforming, with the team as a whole playing sloppy defense, and ultimately being unfocused and seemingly lifeless in too many situations. Too many different ways. Well, on top of that, it seems like across the board, the coaching staff and their ability to improve the play on the field has taken a step back, which has led to a lot of these things. And then when people ask the questions on what's going on with this team, we don't get that many answers unless the front office is talking. And this team is now lining up to miss the playoffs for now the ninth time in 11 seasons under Jerry DiPoto. So you ask yourself, is that worth running back again? Even if they lose a World Series, are you confident that they're going to get back to that mountaintop? 00:22:23 Speaker 2: I mean, if they got to the World Series, I don't know if I could have that much argument because that would be going to places the franchise has never gone before. 00:22:30 Speaker 3: But let's be real. Look at how they've played all year. 00:22:34 Speaker 2: You're trusting them to get through three different series to get to the fall classic? 00:22:38 Speaker 1: No. No. 00:22:39 Speaker 3: No, I'm not. 00:22:41 Speaker 1: I'm just saying, even if they were to get to that point, I mean, the goal is winning the World Series. Right. 00:22:51 Speaker 2: And I want to stay more in the bucket of wild card to divisional round. 00:22:56 Speaker 3: Sure. Because if they were to get into the play. 00:22:57 Speaker 1: That's the more realistic one if they make it. 00:22:59 Speaker 2: Much more realistic. And that's where this conversation gets interesting. Because, look, if they make the World Series, I think you'd find a lot of fans that say, that was the most fun I've ever had, similar to last season. They took us on this magical ride. I hope they can do it again next year. But if they simply lose in the wildcard round or lose in the divisional round, That would spark a whole lot of conversation, because that is not even close to meeting the goals that were set at the start of the year, and it brings up conversations about necessary changes that this roster absolutely would need to make ahead of 2027. Unfortunately, knowing how this franchise operates, here's where this gets difficult. Not for fans, not for us sitting here talking about it, but probably difficult on. 00:23:40 Speaker 3: The people that would make the decisions. 00:23:42 Speaker 2: And this is not what we would do, but definitely We know this franchise by now. You know this franchise by now. I don't care if they got in with 80 wins. If it were me, I'd say treat it like an 80 win season. Do what you do in the offseason of an 80 win season. But you know this franchise. If they got into the playoffs, don't you think they'd try to spin the narrative of, well, with this roster and with this manager, this team's made it to the postseason back to back years for the first time ever. 00:24:11 Speaker 3: Don't tell me they wouldn't spin that narrative. They would. 00:24:14 Speaker 1: Oh, they would. 00:24:14 Speaker 3: They would. Even at 80 wins. Like, they wouldn't care. 00:24:18 Speaker 2: And us sitting here, and I bet a lot of you listening would say the same thing, which is, no, you don't get to use the back-to-back postseason card as reasoning for running the roster back next year. 00:24:29 Speaker 3: Not at 80 wins. No way. 00:24:31 Speaker 2: You win 80 games, you better treat it like an 80-win season. But that doesn't mean that's what the Mariners organization will do. And if they simply got into the wildcard round and lost... Got into the divisional round and got boat raced by one of those AL East teams. There's a real world they try to run this thing back. And I just do not see a world where any of that makes sense. They need significant changes on the roster. They need significant offensive upgrades. And most of all, I think the bucket everybody is essentially all in unison on at this point. 00:25:04 Speaker 3: You need a better manager. 00:25:06 Speaker 2: And if they were to make the post, if they were to coaching staff as a whole, but it all, it all starts and stops with the manager. 00:25:12 Speaker 1: Right. 00:25:13 Speaker 2: And if they were to make the post season again, this year, there is absolutely a world where an organization that has been as unsuccessful as the Mariners would look at it and say, even, even knowing everything we've seen out in front of us this year, like it's all been right in front of everybody, all the problems that lie in front of this roster that the organization would say, well, they made the playoffs back to back years. 00:25:35 Speaker 3: Let's just keep it going. And that just can't happen. 00:25:38 Speaker 2: If you want to win the World Series, there's necessary changes that need to be made to get to said World Series. And they may not be made if you simply go to the wildcard round. 00:25:48 Speaker 1: I can't deal with the process as a whole for this organization for another year, I don't think. It doesn't work. You're talking about the coaching staff and the players on the roster. I think it extends up and down, this team right now. I do. And there will be some notes coming in when we talk about last year in a few minutes. But, like, honestly, Lyle, do you trust another year of this process for the team as a whole, up and down? Coaching, players, front office, ownership. Are you okay with the same thing we've had since 2016 here again for next season? No. 00:26:29 Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean the Mariners would totally clean house. I think it's realistic they make a managerial change. I think it's, given what happened last year, a little less likely they'd overhaul the front office. And I'm not saying that's right or wrong. 00:26:44 Speaker 3: I'm really not. 00:26:45 Speaker 2: Listen, I think there's a totally, totally valid argument for the notion that this front office has made the playoffs twice in 11 years, fell short of massive expectations this season, and as I've seen on Twitter a few times, rightfully, they have more Baseball America banners than they do post-season banners and championships. 00:27:04 Speaker 1: Great at prospect development, not great at building a big league roster. Like their prospects have all worked out pretty good, I would say. And we're still sitting right here having this conversation. 00:27:16 Speaker 2: Listen, Dave Dombrowski can be a bit of a polarizing GM for a lot of different reasons because usually the teams that Dombrowski puts together blow up eventually. And I know the Mariners have been very set on their process over the last decade about building a, they call it sustainable winner, but you know what? Dave Dombrowski wins. The Mariners have built something sustainable. They have not built a sustainable winner. They have built a sustainable wildcard contender, not a sustainable winner. 00:27:45 Speaker 1: Sustainably mediocre is the right term. 00:27:48 Speaker 3: Correct. Which is what the definition of a sustainable wildcard contender is. 00:27:53 Speaker 1: Right. So that's where we're at. It's not. 00:27:56 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:27:57 Speaker 1: I was going to say, I don't think it's worth it for them to make the playoffs at this point. They might still. And if they won the World Series, I'll happily eat crow. But anything less than that, I think I would feel really uncomfortable with repeating this same process again next season, expecting different results. 00:28:16 Speaker 2: And if you're somebody that's saying to yourselves, well, there's no guarantee there's changes if the Mariners miss the playoffs either. 00:28:21 Speaker 3: You're right. Nothing's a guarantee. But it feels a lot, though. 00:28:25 Speaker 2: But it feels a hell of a lot more likely that they would sit down and recognize the changes that need to be made if they miss the playoffs in the highest expectation season in the history of the franchise versus making it. Even if it's just losing in the wildcard round. They'd say, well, we still made the playoffs. Still got there. Just didn't– ball didn't bounce our way. I'm not going to listen to narratives being spun like that. Like it needs to be made. And I know it sounds ridiculous to some people because I'm sure there's people listening saying, well, the Mariners should know that regardless. And no matter what happens this year in the playoffs, they should recognize it and make the changes. 00:29:00 Speaker 3: You are right. 00:29:02 Speaker 2: Doesn't mean they're going to. And they need to, like, it almost feels like drawing it out for a kindergartner here in some ways. But I honestly believe for the people that ultimately make the biggest decisions, that's what it's going to take. It is going to take a slap in the face to see no playoffs in front of them in October to sit down and realize this isn't working. And I want to see them win a World Series. I don't want to consistently see them just be in playoff contention, be in a wildcard round. And I think everybody listening is in that same boat. And if you want to see them win a World Series versus, oh, just make the playoffs and see, not for this year, man. there needs to be significant organizational changes in philosophy come this offseason and it's been made clear as day with what's happened this year and I don't think that happens unless they physically are not in the playoff. 00:29:52 Speaker 1: Field Not even just a World Series this year, Lyle. It's your best chance at a World Series in the future. We want the Mariners to have the best chance to win the World Series now and in the future. And this is what it's going to take. Because what they're currently doing does not equate to winning World Series. 00:30:10 Speaker 3: I think I've said this on a previous episode. I'll say it here again. 00:30:12 Speaker 2: I don't think the Mariners are winning anything significant with Dan Wilson managing this team. I think I made that pretty clear. I don't think they will win anything significant with him managing. But that's not the only potential change. 00:30:25 Speaker 1: You're right. 00:30:25 Speaker 2: And from what you're spelling out here, you think there's a hell of a lot of overhaul. 00:30:30 Speaker 3: That has to be done this offseason. 00:30:36 Speaker 1: I think that the Mariners can do better than winning 90 games. It has been shown in different organizations with less resources that you can win more games. The Mariners do so well with their player development, and it's still not good enough. 00:30:54 Speaker 3: I mean, they have. 00:30:55 Speaker 1: Wow, they've had... They have the potential to have three top 10 Major League Baseball prospects all debut this year, and it won't mean shit. Correct? Top 10. Not even the Brewers are doing that. Not even the Rays are doing that. So, like, something is working right, but not everything. I think at this point, if World Series is your expectations, then you need to be open to everything. Everything. 00:31:23 Speaker 3: Not another. 00:31:23 Speaker 1: 90 wins, maybe it'll be enough. I just don't think that is something that you can just continue to churn out going forward. So Jason Churchill told us something at the beginning of the year in our interview with him that absolutely rings true. Jerry DiPoto is the best general manager in Mariners franchise history. Absolutely correct. The problem is the bar for that is really low. 00:31:51 Speaker 3: Would you put him ahead of Pat Gillick? 00:31:53 Speaker 1: They might be like on the same level. Pat Gillick built a great major league roster that wasn't like sustainable for its long term and then left when it all kind of fell apart. Jerry has a very healthy organization from the minor leagues up to the big leagues where they're generally good. You know, Pat Gillick's teams were, I think, more talented at the big league level than this current team is. And we've seen where that puts the Mariners right now. It just probably depends what you prefer. It's like the Dombrowski thing. Pat Kilke is the Mariners version of Dave Dombrowski, right? So it just depends what you would prefer there. 00:32:34 Speaker 3: Sure. 00:32:34 Speaker 1: Anyways, even if we were to think that is true, and honestly, like, I buy that. Yeah, Jerry is the best they've had. The problem is you can be the best in Mariners history with still not being good enough. And this franchise has shown it over and over and over again. No World Series. It just says it all. 00:32:51 Speaker 3: They've never been. Not even just no rings. They've never been. Right. 00:32:54 Speaker 1: So, like, Jerry DiPoto doesn't need to win a World Series to be the best GM in Mariners franchise history because no one else has won. 00:33:01 Speaker 3: Correct. 00:33:05 Speaker 2: And they need to take some serious looks at their overall big league roster come this offseason. You know what I've come to the realization on, too? They need another middle-of-the-order bat. Like, true impact star bat. 00:33:20 Speaker 3: Because. 00:33:22 Speaker 2: We could get into this on a more deeper level come the offseason or when we have more time. But unfortunately, I think we've reached the point with Julio to say he's a really good major league player. But continuing to try to bank on him, going back to being the offensive player that he was in his rookie year, I think we've just learned at this point it may not ever happen. 00:33:44 Speaker 3: He is. 00:33:45 Speaker 2: That rookie season he had offensively is an outlier. In the last three seasons, if you extrapolate Julio's numbers and look at all the players across the game that have had... I did this the other day on Fangraphs. Minimum 1,500 plate appearances. Julio's like the 42nd best hitter in Major League Baseball over a three-year stretch. His WRC Plus in that time is roughly 110. He's a really good Major League player. 00:34:11 Speaker 3: But. 00:34:12 Speaker 2: Continuing to build your roster around him playing like a superstar bat is becoming less and less realistic. And if that's the case, then you need another middle of the order bat. So if you're going to go trade one of your starting pitchers this offseason, go get a serious thumper in the middle of the order. Or, God forbid, these owners actually open up their checkbooks and went and signed a middle of the order bat in this offseason. Unfortunately, it's not a very good market. So it may come through the trade route. But if you're going to look into trading a starter this offseason, go get a legit game changer in the middle of your order. Because Julio will always play a major role on this roster. He will always be one of the best players on the roster. He may be the face of the team for the entirety of his career. But we need to have a look in the mirror about who he is as an offensive player. Because the idea of Julio Rodriguez... is now being put on a higher pedestal than the actual offensive production of Julio Rodriguez. And the offensive production of Julio Rodriguez in the last three years is a guy that hasn't surpassed an OPS of 800 in that time. 00:35:17 Speaker 1: Just look at how the lineup looks next year. You're going to lose Randy. Julio, as you just laid out, you just can't rely on him to be that middle of the order bat. You can rely on him to be a bat and be a productive bat. but not the aircraft carrier in the middle of that lineup. And then your other star player is going to be a 30-year-old catcher who's coming off an injury-marred season. What is there to rely upon in that lineup next year that you can solidly sit down and say, I'm confident in this for the lineup? The other guy in that lineup next year, Lyle, is Dom Canzone. But Dom Canzone... is a DH that I think more people are believing in now. But if that's the most confident thing going into next season for the Mariners, then that's a problem. And maybe, Lyle, it is going to take someone with no emotional ties to the current set of big leaguers to make the changes to this roster that actually need to be made to take them to that next level. 00:36:22 Speaker 2: Dom Canzone is a DH who for half a season has proven he can be an everyday player and hit lefties. I hope it continues. It may very well continue, but it's not a long history. He's going to have to continue to prove it. And by the way, every World Series winner seems to find some version of their Max Muncy at some point in time. Let's say that Dom Canzone long-term is the Mariners' Max Muncy. 00:36:44 Speaker 3: That would be awesome. 00:36:46 Speaker 2: Because every team needs somebody like that, a hidden gem that overperforms your expectations for them and really, really plays a significant factor into a championship team. But your best player and your best hitter can't be Max Muncy. And Max Muncy's a better bat at his peak than Dom Canzone is right now. Like, Max Muncy's made all-star games. Max Muncy's had 900 OPS seasons. But even say Dom Canzone's Max Muncy, great. Like, if he's their Max Muncy, it can't be the best hitter. So as you said, the guys you're relying on in this lineup are an injury-riddled catcher coming off what may go down as a historically bad season in Major League Baseball, a center fielder that is a very good player, a very good defender when he's at his best, and a solid offensive bat, but not an aircraft carrier, and then your near $ 100 million first baseman who, despite being more productive in the last few weeks, is going to put up less than a full win for the season. Where is the identity of your offense? 00:37:50 Speaker 1: It's not Cole Young. It's not Colt Emerson. We don't even know if Colt can consistently hit at the big league level yet. Yeah. 00:37:58 Speaker 2: Your headline acquisition of the offseason and Brendan Donovan's played 45 games. 00:38:03 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:38:04 Speaker 1: Who has never in his career shown an ability to stay on the field consistently. 00:38:09 Speaker 2: Who do you trust in this lineup to be your aircraft carriers going forward? Even if a lot of it's still built on Cal and Julio and Naylor. 00:38:15 Speaker 3: Okay. 00:38:17 Speaker 2: But you need another middle of the order bat. That's been made abundantly clear to me at this point. You need another middle of the order bat. 00:38:27 Speaker 1: And we're going to spend quite a bit of this offseason talking about that. And you could honestly give the offseason a failing grade if they don't do that next year. Because it's the one thing that they have not been able to successfully do. The last time they even attempted something like this was to get Teoscar Hernandez, and that didn't work at all. They tried to put him in the middle of the lineup, and he was average. Yeah. 00:38:52 Speaker 2: He was like a 105 WRC plus bat. So to the expectations they had for him, no, it didn't work. You need a middle-of-the-order bat. 00:38:59 Speaker 3: And you're right. 00:39:00 Speaker 2: When you're in a position of power and leading a baseball operations department for a decade, of course you're going to have ties to the belief in the product you put together, and you're not going to feel like you have to go make significant changes. But maybe it takes somebody that hasn't been there and done that in the Pacific Northwest for the last 10 years to go out and make those changes. 00:39:23 Speaker 1: Think about the mindset of it, too. Say if Jerry goes out there and he's shuffling around his roster. he might think, oh, if I screw up, I'm fired. Assuming Jerry's good into next season, which I think every indication that we have right now, he is. Jerry might think in the back of his mind as he makes this, if I shake up this roster and it doesn't work, I'm done. I'm done. Meanwhile, if someone new comes in, he goes to John Stanton and Chris Larson and says, I want to make this roster how I want it to look. Not how Jerry DiPoto made this roster. I want it to be my roster. This is what I'm going to do. It's a different perspective because Jerry DiPoto can't tell John Stanton and Chris Larson, oh, I want to make the roster how I want it to look. And they're like, wait, but you just did that multiple times. It doesn't work, which is why sometimes new voices can make a little bit more impact. 00:40:22 Speaker 3: Correct. 00:40:23 Speaker 2: And by the way, when TJ says a new GM and a new front office would want to make the roster look how they want it to look, no, they're not going to trade Julio and they're not going to trade Cal and they're not going to trade Naylor and they're not going to trade Colt Emerson or Kate Anderson. 00:40:35 Speaker 3: Not like that. 00:40:37 Speaker 2: But there's a lot of other things that they may maneuver to say, this is how we believe we can get this team over the top because what was happening here before wasn't working. 00:40:48 Speaker 1: So let us know your answer down in the comments below. Is the Mariners making the playoffs worth it? I'm fascinated to read the YouTube comments when this goes live in the morning. 00:40:57 Speaker 3: So am I. So am I. 00:40:58 Speaker 2: And just to make it clear again, as we wrap this part of the segment up, yeah, my answer is no. And again, that may sound like loser talk to some people. That's totally fine. But believe it or not, we are thinking about a longer term outlook here. We really are a bigger picture. Because I just think them getting into the wildcard round is going to repeat a lot of old habits come next year and this offseason that we've seen a million times already. And I don't know what playing three extra games in your season really does for anybody. 00:41:30 Speaker 1: We are trying to increase the Mariners' odds at winning the World Series for the coming years, including this year. So that's how this comes around. Just know. That's the basis of everything we do. Okay, before we get to the final news of this podcast, let's pause here for an ad. 00:41:50 Speaker 2: Let's compare two players. 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What do you think? 00:43:34 Speaker 2: I mean, we just spent so much time on a lot of negative, and there's going to be some checks and balances to this conversation. But I will say, just to start off, I'm very happy for Laz. We've gotten to know Laz a little bit in the last few years since we started doing the podcast, since we've been at spring training, since we've been in Everett a little bit. And let me just tell you guys how he is from afar and on TV and on highlight clips when you see him is how he is in real life. He is incredibly nice. He's always smiling. He's just a bolt of energy all the time. He is like his personality is infectious. And hopefully that has some effect on the clubhouse a little bit who clearly could use some energy in that clubhouse. So I'm very happy for Laz. Big league promotions and big league call-ups are such a culmination of all the hard work that a guy puts into everything. And Laz has put his time in. And he's really, really produced in the minor leagues. So I'm very happy for him because it's a huge day in his life. So I do want to make sure I say that, that Lazaro Montes getting promoted is really cool. 00:44:34 Speaker 3: And I'm happy for him. 00:44:35 Speaker 1: The Mariners are promoting their best offensive minor league player. on Tuesday. That's what they will be doing. He's been more productive than anyone, maybe outside of Boston Smith, but he has not been in the Mariners minor leagues for the entire season. So that crown's going to go to last. He has 38 home runs this season. At the very least, can we celebrate how exciting it is that the Mariners have a potential 40 home run bat in their minor league system and that you'll see him for the first time this upcoming week? Because there is one thing that Lozaro Montes will do when he comes up to the big leagues. He's going to hit home runs. No matter how much contact he makes, when he does make contact, the ball is going over the fence. And he's going to hit some really majestic ones when he comes up. And who doesn't love a big, powerful home run hitter when you get to watch it? Like I do. 00:45:25 Speaker 3: Boomers. Boomers who want bunting back in the game of baseball. 00:45:29 Speaker 1: But also those people got to watch Adam Dunn. 00:45:33 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's true. They did. So happy for Lazs. Very happy for Laz. 00:45:38 Speaker 2: And he will provide something because he draws walks and he has power and you know he has the ability to run into one at basically any given point. But there is balance to this conversation. And as I put it in our social media reaction on Sunday night, there is a part of this that feels like the Mariners are essentially just spamming buttons on the Xbox controller at this point. 00:46:02 Speaker 1: Just a little bit. Because the two options we thought were... Michael Arroyo or Lazaro Montes. Laz has been more productive at AAA. Michael Arroyo seems to be a little bit better fit for what the Mariners need offensively. But it's Laz instead getting the promotion. It's like, oh, another left-handed hitter with swing and miss in his game. But if I'm... So here's the thing. Laz is going to swing and miss a ton at the big league level. I think he improved his contact rate in Tacoma a bit. When we were talking to Joe Doyle... in the middle of the season. I think he has AA data. We don't. The only public data available is AAA data on Prospect Savant. When we were talking to Joe about this, Laz was making contact in the zone at a 60% rate, with the lowest rate in MLB being about 65%. And I think that was Nick Kurtz, or Kurtz might have been the second lowest, but he was the most productive of someone who had made contact that little contact. Laz has improved that in AAA to 65%. When you translate that to the big league level, you're going to knock some percentage points off of that because the pitching is going to get significantly better. The main worry with Lazaro Montes is always going to be, can he make enough contact at the big league level? And in this month of September, Lyle, maybe he won't. The reason I think he's on this roster is because on a day like today, or even especially a day like Saturday, where the Mariners' offense goes quiet and they need literally anything, Laz could put the barrel on a baseball and it goes over the fence. And you're more confident in that than any other guy in your lineup right now, including Cal Raleigh. 00:47:53 Speaker 2: You're more confident in Laz than Julio and Cal to hit big league home runs already? Probably. 00:48:01 Speaker 3: I don't know if I'd say that. 00:48:03 Speaker 1: Probably. 00:48:03 Speaker 3: But Laz has never played in the big leagues. So here's where the Laz conversation... But. 00:48:07 Speaker 1: Laz has a better power tool than both of them. That's why I'm saying that. 00:48:11 Speaker 3: Raw power, sure. 00:48:12 Speaker 2: But here's where the conversation about Laz becomes a fascinating one. And it's up for debate. Because Laz Montes still has to make contact with the baseball to put it over the fence in the big leagues. And Laz's contact rate, his zone contact rate in the minor leagues is. 00:48:34 Speaker 3: extremely low. It's about 61%. Or you know what? 00:48:38 Speaker 2: Contact rate's not enough of isn't enough common knowledge to get into the weeds of that. 00:48:42 Speaker 3: So let me just say this. 00:48:44 Speaker 2: Laz ranks incredibly, incredibly low in making contact with pitches in the zone. 00:48:50 Speaker 3: And this is in the minor leagues. 00:48:52 Speaker 2: Laz Montez, also in the minor leagues, is still striking out 31% of the time. And that is without making the biggest jump of his baseball life in terms of competition. Because there is no jump that prepares you from AAA to the big leagues, the jump that he's about to make. And if he's still striking out 31% of the time in AAA, What's going to happen when he gets to the show? Who's to say his strikeout rate is not legitimately 43% in the majors in the month of September? And that's not tenable. No big leaguer strikes out 40% of the time. 00:49:26 Speaker 1: But what if Laz just hits seven home runs in the month of September? Is that then worth it? 00:49:30 Speaker 3: I mean, I think that's worth it. 00:49:32 Speaker 2: It depends on what his September OPS is. Does he hit seven home runs, but his OPS is 600 because the rest of his at-bats are strikeouts? 00:49:40 Speaker 1: I mean, maybe, but what do you have to lose at this point? Your offense sucks right now. 00:49:49 Speaker 3: Okay. 00:49:49 Speaker 1: So I know you could use a guy that gets on base and hits for power because this offense has had too many guys not getting on base enough and not hitting for enough power. 00:50:01 Speaker 2: So I know we've talked a lot about this season has to be all about 2026 and the way you operate. I think The call-up of Laz Montes is where the line in the sand gets drawn a little bit. And you having to decide as a fan, as a front office member, as a coach, as whoever type of observer you are, which side of that line you stand on. 00:50:23 Speaker 3: Because I. 00:50:26 Speaker 2: Am not sure, with the contact rate that Laz was making, if this is the sound move for him to be up in the big leagues in September or not. 00:50:33 Speaker 3: Because, again, I think one more offseason. 00:50:37 Speaker 2: of adjustment period and one more spring training could have done a lot for him. 00:50:40 Speaker 3: I mean, a lot might be a strong term. 00:50:43 Speaker 2: Done something for him in attempting to cut down the strikeout rate a little bit more. Because what's going to happen with Laz is to some level this month, whether he has success or not, he is going to strike out a lot. And he, unfortunately, is probably going to get exposed against left-handed pitching. Because the other side of Laz Montes is he really, really has not had a lot of success against southpaws. 00:51:06 Speaker 1: But what are the odds of those things changing? For us to feel confident in Laz's ability to do all of those things next year, what? He would need to have like a 10% decrease in strikeout rate. His zone contact percentage would have to go up like 10%. And then his OPS against lefties would need to go up like, what, 200 points? How is that going to happen in the offseason? 00:51:34 Speaker 3: Just more development time. just more time to get your footing. 00:51:37 Speaker 1: You could do the same thing this off season, even though he's in the big leagues. 00:51:42 Speaker 3: I guess you can. I just think that I think there is a. 00:51:47 Speaker 1: Certain, there's a certain things happening. 00:51:52 Speaker 2: To have your OPS against lefties raised 200 points in one off season, probably low, but the, the idea, okay. 00:51:59 Speaker 3: But there is some level and some threshold that. 00:52:03 Speaker 2: That has to be put in place for any player, any prospect to say, okay, this is not tenable in the big leagues. There is still work that needs to be done here. Honestly, maybe with more AAA at-bats. The guy's still only 21 years old. 00:52:15 Speaker 1: Maybe the Mariners don't believe those problems will get that much better in AAA because the pitching in AAA stinks. The same reason they didn't send Colt Emerson down because they thought the issues he needed to fix before he revealed he had an injury that he was hiding for a lot of the season. Or against big league quality stuff, not AAA quality stuff. And that might be the same thing for Laz. Where it's like, if he's only going to make contact at 65% of the time against the soft stuff in AAA, and they don't have much confidence it's going to get better, then you might as well try it out at the big league level and see what you got. 00:52:53 Speaker 2: So you're essentially just letting him sink or swim at this point. And you're saying you're okay with that? 00:52:57 Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think the odds of Laz improving on all of those things enough for you to feel confident that he's going to do it at a capable level consistently at the big leagues is going to happen between now and next May. But between now and next May, if you left Laz in AAA and he just continued to match, you'd be like, I think it would be most of the same thing. His walks would be high. His strikeout rate would be between 27% and 30%. And his zone contact rate would probably be within 5% of where it is right now. That wouldn't change anything. And either of our, our, our belief in him next season to do all the same things that he's currently doing right now at the big league level, when he does do it at the big league level, in my opinion. 00:53:37 Speaker 2: And the numbers against lefties probably aren't going to change that much in one off season either. 00:53:41 Speaker 1: No, no, I don't think so. Now we get to this point where you have an extra roster spot. You don't have to cut anybody. You don't have to take anyone's playing time away. If you don't have, if you don't want to, if Laz ends up really struggling against lefties, take them out of the lineup. Only hit him against righties when he's up this September. 00:54:02 Speaker 2: Well, he's probably only going to play in a couple of games against the Red Sox. So Monday he won't be playing anyway. But on Monday, when the Mariners face off against the Red Sox, they're going to go up against Peyton Tolley. So I think there's almost no way the Mariners would have let Laz make his debut against Peyton Tolley, who is a very, very tough lefty. Now you want to fast forward to Tuesday when Laz will be officially called up. Boston's TBD on their starter so far for that Tuesday. And on Wednesday, they're going to get Patrick Sandoval lefty. I think Tuesday is going to be Sonny Gray. They haven't announced it, but I think. But I would guess Laz probably only plays in one of those two games in Boston because, again, I don't know how much they're going to just let him see lefties with the way he's hit against lefties so far. 00:54:49 Speaker 1: And you have a lot of right-handed hitting outfielders, so it's a pretty easy call to sit him when there are lefties on the mound. 00:54:56 Speaker 3: Yeah, there is. 00:54:57 Speaker 1: Now, maybe against a bad lefty, they might put him in there to see what he does. The Mariners are going to face a lot of bad pitching in the final three and a half weeks of the season against all the soft part of their schedule. At the very least, like, you're going to get the Angels, you're going to get the A's, you're going to get the Astros, you're going to get the Rangers. Wow, I just named the whole American League West. 00:55:15 Speaker 3: Funny. 00:55:16 Speaker 1: They all suck. And then the Rockies, et cetera. Like, there's a lot of bad teams on the schedule. I feel like it's not exactly like a hard landing for Laz... When he's facing all these teams in September, it's like one tough series. 00:55:32 Speaker 3: Yeah, and hopefully that benefits him. 00:55:34 Speaker 2: Maybe the Mariners view the soft part of the schedule as the way to start to get Laz acclimated to the big leagues for next year. And I hope it works to some extent. I'm obviously rooting for it to work. We love Laz. I would just say to temper expectations a little bit. For anybody that looks at Laz and says, well, he's going to be Jordan Alvarez. Jordan never even came close to striking out at the rate that Laz struck out in the minors. They're not a comparable player. I really hate that that comp was ever made because it's not fair to Laz. Those are ridiculous expectations that some fans have now set for him. But, I will say the one note that I think is worthy of making is for anybody that says, well, by calling up Laz now, is that going to affect him next season if there's a lockout because now that he's on the 40-man, he doesn't get the same development work in spring training and when the season starts? Not with Laz, no, because the Mariners actually have to put Laz on the 40-man roster come this offseason, and they have to do the same thing with Arroyo because how it works in minor league baseball is once you get to five years of minor league service time, If you're not on your team's 40-man roster by then, you're eligible for the Rule 5 draft, where another team can take a player off another team's minor league system and put them on their own. 00:56:50 Speaker 3: 40-man roster for next season. 00:56:52 Speaker 1: Big league roster. 00:56:54 Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, they have to be on the 40-man. 00:56:56 Speaker 1: No, I think they have to be on the big league roster. Okay. 00:57:00 Speaker 3: Well, anyway. 00:57:01 Speaker 2: If the Mariners didn't put Laz on that 40-man roster this offseason, another team could poach him away. And the Mariners were obviously going to put Laz and Arroyo on the 40-man regardless because they're not going to let those guys get taken away by another team. 00:57:13 Speaker 3: But since they were going to have. 00:57:14 Speaker 2: To put him on the 40-man this winter anyway, maybe they said, okay, soft part of the schedule coming up. 00:57:22 Speaker 3: He's hit 38 homers in the minors. 00:57:24 Speaker 2: Maybe the swing and miss isn't going to get that much better with more minor league development time. 00:57:28 Speaker 3: Let's just see what he has. And now he's here. 00:57:32 Speaker 2: That all being said, it still feels like they're spamming buttons a little bit, the Mariners, because this essentially says this is our last-ditch effort to get any possible offense on this big league roster. So, hey, to the guy that's been swinging and missing a ton and striking out 31% of the time in the minors, hey, come give our offense a jolt. 00:57:52 Speaker 3: Come do something for us. We need it desperately. 00:57:56 Speaker 1: You know, the more time I've had to think about this, I just don't think the Mariners have much to lose by putting Laz on the big league roster. And I'm excited to watch him hit because he might hit a few tanks. And it gives me more reason to watch the Mariners because they themselves are not giving me much incentive at all. 00:58:15 Speaker 3: No, they're not. 00:58:17 Speaker 1: You will probably tune in to Lazaro Montes' at-bats and watch a little more keenly than you would with Julio Raquel's at-bats right now. Fair? 00:58:26 Speaker 3: Well, certainly more than Weston Wilson and Patrick Wisdom's at-bats. 00:58:29 Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. 00:58:32 Speaker 2: Yeah, I am excited for Laz. I'm happy for Laz. It's really, really cool that he's getting the chance. I just hope the Mariners are not pulling the trigger on this too soon for the sake of Laz's development. That's where my whole side of the argument comes from. It's not a Laz thing. I'm fired up for Laz. I just hope they're doing right by him. There is an argument to say they still are, as you very clearly just made. I just hope it works out. 00:58:58 Speaker 1: To quote the great Aaron Rodgers, Lyle, in terms of Laz's development, I will just say, relax. 00:59:05 Speaker 3: I'd relax if he was striking out a little less. 00:59:09 Speaker 1: I guess we'll just have to see. He's going to strike out at the big league level. He's probably always going to strike out. The question is, can he get that down to 28% with a 13% walk rate and 30 home run power? That's a productive big league player. That's an all-star right there. If he can do that. 00:59:30 Speaker 2: I will say, if people want to get fired up, I hate the Jordan comp for Laz because I think it's a really bad one, to be honest. I will say, if everything works for Laz, the 100th percentile outcome for Lazaro Montes as a big leaguer would be Kyle Schwarber. If you want to see Laz become a star, that's the profile because Schwarber walks a bunch, strikes out a ton, but hits 40 to 50 homers every year. If you want to dream on a comp for Laz and a player he could become like, Kyle Schwarber's the comp. Now, the more realistic outcome is he's probably more like Luke Raley, except he has more power. But we'll see how it all develops. 01:00:09 Speaker 1: And Kyle Schwarber, I mean, Kyle Schwarber wasn't like the, I guess he was the Kyle Schwarber at about 24 years old, where in his first, like his 24-year-old season in 2017, Kyle Schwarber struck out 31% of the time, walked 12% of the time, and hit 30 home runs. I mean, in that season, that only came out to a 103 WRC +. I think if Laz did that in the year 2026 instead of 2017, different hitting environments, that might be closer to 120. Man, that's bizarre. That's only a 103 back then. Offense was so much better back then. But if Laz were able to repeat that kind of stat line, I think you'd be pretty happy with what you had. And maybe the Mariners think with a season or two at the big league level, that'll be possible. You know who didn't get a whole lot of minor league time? Kyle Schwarber. 01:01:00 Speaker 3: No, he didn't. He got moved pretty fast. Now, Schwarber was a college bat. 01:01:05 Speaker 1: He was, but even a college bat with a ton of swing. How much did he strike out in the minors? 01:01:10 Speaker 2: Let's see. 01:01:11 Speaker 3: I will say, while you're looking that up, while you're looking that up. 01:01:15 Speaker 1: Not a whole lot. 01:01:17 Speaker 3: He didn't strike out a lot in the minors. 01:01:18 Speaker 1: No, not really. 01:01:20 Speaker 2: I will say in 2027, if Laz puts up 30 homers, a 105 WRC plus with a 12% walk rate and a 30% K rate, I'd be happy with that because that would show at 22 years old, Laz Montez has a chance to really be an offensive force in the league. 01:01:37 Speaker 3: In his first season, he hits 30 bombs. 01:01:39 Speaker 2: Even if he strikes out 30% of the time, that shows you that he's got a chance to really build on something. 01:01:45 Speaker 3: I just hope it doesn't get ugly. 01:01:49 Speaker 2: And what I mean by that is I hope the strikeouts are not absolutely spiraling out of control or it's not translating to home runs. And there's obviously not a lot of value that he provides in the field or on the base pads. So he really has to hit and he's really going to have to hit righties. I hope he looks something like Schwarber. 01:02:07 Speaker 3: That'd be amazing. 01:02:08 Speaker 2: I just hope he is able to manage the strikeouts in the big leagues and the swing and miss in the big leagues to the point where it's not, it doesn't get out of control. 01:02:16 Speaker 1: I think your concerns make a lot more sense next season. If he's like penciled into a starting role as opposed to September, where again, if everything you just said happens in the worst case scenario of him in September happens, he's just on the bench. It doesn't play. It's like Cole Young last year. It just doesn't play at all. Yeah. 01:02:35 Speaker 3: And then, and then I'll have time in the off season to make his adjustments. So, right. So I'm, I am excited. I'm excited for Laz. 01:02:41 Speaker 2: I am. 01:02:42 Speaker 3: I just, I just hope he's ready for it. That's all I'd say. That was a fun episode. Vibes are high, right? 01:02:50 Speaker 1: We have so many nice things to say about the team these days. 01:02:53 Speaker 3: I know. It's all right. 01:02:55 Speaker 1: We just need to be more positive sometimes. 01:02:57 Speaker 2: Well, how do you want us to do that when the team is playing like this with the expectations like this? 01:03:04 Speaker 3: Unfortunately, there's no way to. 01:03:07 Speaker 1: You know, so you said like, oh, I just don't want it to spiral and get out of hand and be ugly with Laz. You know what's spiraling ugly and out of hand right now? The 2026 Seattle Mariners. 01:03:17 Speaker 3: Well, they've been spiraling out of control since July. So yeah. 01:03:22 Speaker 1: So you already got it. 01:03:23 Speaker 2: But it's at about the worst it's been right now. 01:03:26 Speaker 3: There's no doubt. 01:03:27 Speaker 1: Yeah, that is definitely for sure. 01:03:30 Speaker 2: Again, people want positivity. I will close it out with this. I'm very happy for Laz. And yes, 100th percentile outcome is he could be Kyle Schwarber. 01:03:38 Speaker 3: I will say that. 01:03:39 Speaker 1: The next like wall-to-wall positive episodes is if the Mariners like win every game the rest of the season or spring training next year. 01:03:48 Speaker 2: But if they win every game the rest of the season, it comes back to the combo we just had throughout the majority of this podcast. 01:03:54 Speaker 3: Which is, is that worth it? 01:03:57 Speaker 1: Well, they win the World Series, it is. 01:03:59 Speaker 2: Oh, you say win every game the rest of the year and include the World Series in the playoffs. 01:04:03 Speaker 3: Okay, yeah. Well, that's different. 01:04:05 Speaker 1: That would probably be worth it to me. 01:04:07 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, of course. 01:04:08 Speaker 1: I'll eat crow on that one. 01:04:09 Speaker 2: Of course winning the World Series would be worth it. But I thought you meant win the rest of their games for the regular season. 01:04:15 Speaker 3: Because, eh. We just had a conversation about that. 01:04:18 Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe, or maybe the day, maybe the day the lockout breaks, that'll be the next ultra positive episode. No. 01:04:26 Speaker 1: Yeah. Probably. I mean, probably in the, cause then spring training would probably start right after that. 01:04:30 Speaker 3: Right. And people would be all high on the idea of baseball being back. So yeah. 01:04:34 Speaker 1: Yeah. 01:04:34 Speaker 2: Hey Mariners, if you want to give us a bunch of positivity episodes, feel free to do it. You just got to start winning games. So that'd be great. All right, that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full-form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure to download these episodes if you're listening. Please go rate and review Five Stars on Apple or Spotify or the audio platforms. Go hit subscribe if you're watching on YouTube. You can also find our website, marinelayerpod.com, where everything's over there. Again, you want the one-stop shop with all the episodes and the podcast merch and the Patreon and a bunch. 01:05:09 Speaker 3: Of other things. 01:05:10 Speaker 2: It's all over our site, so it's marinelayerpod.com. Then find us on social media. We're posting content every day, and we're everywhere at marinelayerpod. That's TJ. 01:05:20 Speaker 3: I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon. We'll talk to you soon.