Episode 459: Is The Mariners Contention Window Closed?

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Hey guys, just another reminder that this Tuesday, so tomorrow likely when you're listening to this podcast, we have our next live event and we'll be taping a podcast live with our friends at the Emerald Queen Casino. Again, that's Tuesday, September the 22nd. We'll be there. We'll be watching the game with you guys. We'll be recording after with you guys. We'll likely have some things to give away. So it's going to be fun. Again, with the season winding down, our live events are starting to wind down for the year, but we do have this one again, and we'd love to see you out for it. So again, mark it on your calendars. It is Tuesday, September 22nd, 6.40 p.m. start when the game starts, and it'll be at the Emerald Queen Casino. Can't wait to see you there. 00:00:36 Speaker 2: Welcome to episode number 459 of the Marine Layer podcast. The Mariners win the series against the Rockies this weekend, albeit very little meaning. We'll also answer the question on whether or not the Mariners' contention window has closed or not. 00:00:51 Speaker 1: Your guys' reminder, just before we start this episode, do us a couple of big favors if you don't mind. We would love to see each and every one of you hit subscribe on YouTube. It is a huge way to support the channel and support the brand. If you're watching on YouTube, go hit subscribe. Make sure to download the episodes if you're listening on the audio form. And if you're downloading, just leave a five-star review while you're at it too. Our website is marinelayerpod.com if you want to find all our episodes there. It's another place to find them all. Our Patreon is there. Our podcast merch is all there as well. It's over at our website, marinelayerpod.com. And then you can find us all across social media at marinelayerpod. Let's get it rolling. Let's get it rolling. 00:01:41 Speaker 2: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Ladder Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network. Recording here on Sunday evening, September 20th. Mariners win the series against the Rockies this weekend. Doesn't mean that much. No, Kate Anderson pitched really well here on Sunday. I'd say the only real positive for me, Lyle, out of this weekend, besides seeing a couple of really cool home runs at Coors Field from Gal Raleigh and Lazar Montez, at least the Astros can't clinch the AL West at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday or Wednesday. 00:02:17 Speaker 1: So, I get what you mean by that, and I get the premise behind it, but at the same time, is that not exactly how the Mariners deserve their season to end for how this has gone? I know we don't want to give the Astros and Astros fans anything to celebrate and anything to hold over the heads of Mariners fans, but is there not a part of you with the way this season's gone, that says to yourself, that's exactly how this Mariners team deserves to have their season ended. 00:02:43 Speaker 2: A little bit, but that would also require the Astros being a good enough team to do that. And as we talked about at the beginning of the season, like they're not. No. 00:02:53 Speaker 1: Like they're just bad. Yeah. No, they're not a good team. Like the Mariners. 00:02:57 Speaker 2: The Astros, despite being ahead of the Mariners in the standings against this version of the Seattle Mariners, went two and nine. 00:03:07 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:03:08 Speaker 2: So, like, yeah, of course they weren't able to make that happen. But the Mariners still are probably going to get eliminated on Tuesday or Wednesday. Their elimination number right now is two. The only reason it's two and not one since the Rangers lead the division is that the Mariners hold the tiebreaker if it's a three-way tie atop of the division. 00:03:29 Speaker 1: That's it. 00:03:30 Speaker 2: Right. 00:03:31 Speaker 1: So... Some combination of one more Rangers win and one more Mariners loss or two more Mariners losses or two more Rangers wins. Whatever combination you draw, if that happens before the season ends, and I'm sure it's going to, that's how they'll be eliminated. But I don't know, man. Like, until just a few days ago, the Astros did seem like they could eliminate the Mariners at T-Mobile Park. I know you said because the Mariners struggled against the Astros this year that it felt unlikely. Astros struggled against the Mariners. Oh, sorry. Astros struggled against the Mariners. But again, until a couple days ago, that seemed exactly what was on a crash course to happen. And then the Astros had themselves a really bad handful of games, including getting dominated by the Braves over the weekend. 00:04:16 Speaker 2: Did you see the Astros put a congrats Braves on their scoreboard? 00:04:21 Speaker 1: No, they didn't. I think they did. For what? 00:04:25 Speaker 2: It said congrats Braves NL East champs. 00:04:29 Speaker 1: I mean, is that not? Loser behavior? It absolutely is. Could you imagine the scene if. 00:04:39 Speaker 2: The Mariners put on their big board that the Astros clinched. 00:04:43 Speaker 1: The West on Tuesday? Congrats, Astros, on clinching the AL West. You'd be like, all right. It's like, all right. 00:04:52 Speaker 2: This is an inside job. There's an industry plant here putting this in place. 00:05:00 Speaker 1: I mean... it would be the perfect bow tie to this 2026 season. That's for sure. But the Astros aren't doing that for the Mariners. They are doing it for a team that's not in their division. It's not even in their league. It's still loser behavior, but I don't think you'd ever see it for a division rival. I hope not. 00:05:19 Speaker 2: I don't, I don't think, I don't, nothing, nothing will ever top 2023 when the Rangers clinched their postseason spot, the Mariners got eliminated at T-Mobile park. And then, Corey Seager gets on the mic with Ken Rosenthal and it's like, oh, I just love how we're willing to spend anything to make things happen here with the Rangers. 00:05:39 Speaker 1: It's just, it's just so great. It's amazing. I love that. Gee, where'd you hear that, Corey? And by the way, Corey Seager does not do a lot of interviews at all. So it almost felt like he had a motive to go and do that interview and to say something like that while standing on the dirt of T-Mobile Park's infield. Yeah, I mean, I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that Kyle said to Corey, hey, if you guys win this weekend and clinch and eliminate the Mariners, feel free to take some jabs. And I think Corey did. I truly don't. 00:06:12 Speaker 2: Think we appreciated that week of content enough, Lyle, looking back at it. Like we were still pretty young in the podcast and content game at that point. That was about our one year mark as a podcast. Within the next seven days of Corey Seager getting on the mic and saying that, we had that. We had Cal Raleigh calling out the Mariners front office in the clubhouse. 00:06:31 Speaker 1: Just great stuff. No, no, no, no, no. Sorry. Nope. The, the owners. Yep. Owners call that a calling out ownership. 00:06:39 Speaker 2: Then like 18 hours later, apologizing, saying he didn't mean what he said. And then Jerry said 54% a few days later. 00:06:49 Speaker 1: Well, not just 54%. 00:06:51 Speaker 2: You got to remember that he's doing the fans a favor. 00:06:54 Speaker 1: Yeah, he still is. He's still doing the fans. How's that going? How's that going? Well, again, having a sustainable winner is doing the fans a favor. The Mariners are sustainably winning, right? They've done a lot of winning. 00:07:04 Speaker 2: Winning 85 games. 00:07:08 Speaker 1: Well. Except for this season. Well, it's like our buddy Jake put out the other day on social media. Jake's takes, if you guys know him from the Mariners content world on social media. He said, just a fun fact, if the Mariners were winning 54% of their games this year, they'd be up in the division by six and a half games. That's all. Have a great day, everybody. Oh, and then he added the clip. He's like, and just remember before we move on. And then he added the clip of Jerry saying, we're actually doing the fan base a favor. God, that video never gets old. More than the 54%. That line, it never fails to amaze me. 00:07:52 Speaker 2: You and I keep going back and forth on how they're going to handle the end of season press conferences. Oh, there's like, there's like two different scenarios here. There's two different ways this plays out. If you missed the prior conversations about this, let me try and explain it here really quick. 00:08:08 Speaker 1: So they'll usually. 00:08:10 Speaker 2: Handle end of season press conferences, usually with the manager and the president of baseball operations in a couple of different ways. Sometimes they will do a proper press conference like they did in 2023 when Jerry Stepped all over himself with 54%. We're doing fans a favor. We missed the playoffs, but this season has been such a great success. 00:08:33 Speaker 1: Can't get out of that. Again, could you imagine if we were at the stage of our content journey that we're at right now when all this went down? I mean, if we were at the stage we're at now with all that going down, I think we would have been hashtag cooking. throughout that week. Like we'd see every single one of those things go down. We'd text each other. It's like, Oh, it's time to cook. And we'd start reacting to all of it. Yeah, exactly. 00:08:58 Speaker 2: Um, so there's the formal press conference version where everyone sits at a table or there's the version Jerry did a year later after they let go of Scott service. He did a more informal in dugout end of season presser where it's just him sitting and answering questions to the media, more impromptu. So there's less of a crowd if he does it at the stadium before a game, which he did in essentially the last series of the season, which if they were to play the same playbook, that's how it would work out this year. Of course, the Mariners made the ALCS last year, so they did have a bit more of a formal postseason press conference for both Dan Wilson and Jerry Napoto. Well, right now, Lyle, every indication shows that Dan Wilson will not be the Mariners manager next season. And they'll probably move on whether they announce that he resigns or they fire him or whatever. However they want to spin it, the Mariners let go of Dan Wilson probably by... probably eight days from this podcast coming out. 00:10:02 Speaker 1: Let's call it anywhere from eight to 10 days. Cause could it happen on Wednesday or Thursday of the next week? It's possible. But if you are somebody that is sitting and just waiting on the news to that, I say, I hear you brother. Oh, I'll say what Dr. Strange says. We're in the endgame now. I think it'll be Monday. Well, then.... 00:10:31 Speaker 2: Let me explain myself. Let me explain myself. So, on to this point. Everything would line up this year for Jerry to do his traditional end-of-season press conference in the dugout and talk to media there. What's the number one thing Jerry DiPoto is going to be asked about Assuming Jerry's going to be employed for next year, which we have every indication that he will be. What's the number one thing he's. 00:10:54 Speaker 1: Going to be asked about? It's going to be Dan Wilson's job. Right. It is. 00:11:01 Speaker 2: Would Jerry DePoto do a press conference where he's fielding questions about Dan Wilson's job security with Dan Wilson 30 feet away working with infielders? 00:11:10 Speaker 1: Like, no, right? I guess they could do it somewhere else. They could do it in one of the interview rooms that they have in the ballpark. 00:11:18 Speaker 2: I don't even think that matters. It's Jerry doing a press conference while Dan Wilson's employed. It's the same thing as Jerry going to Ken Rosenthal and saying, well, anything's up for discussion while Scott Service is still employed. And we know how that looked on him last time. I doubt they make the same mistake again. 00:11:37 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:11:40 Speaker 2: Which would rule out an end-of-season press conference during the season. It would need to be after the season. 00:11:46 Speaker 1: Let me add, too, you said every indication is that Jerry will be employed again next year. That is just the indication of what the Mariners intend to do. That's, we're not saying we're in favor of that, but it's what the Mariners seem to be indicating. 00:11:59 Speaker 2: And no newsbreakers have said anything about Jerry not being here next year. 00:12:04 Speaker 1: Like the people who would know, like. 00:12:06 Speaker 2: The Ken Rosenthal's or the Jeff Passon's, like Rosenthal Weekly is doing his updates on who will be employed next year and who won't. 00:12:14 Speaker 1: Jerry's name has never come up. Yeah. It would be a bit of a bombshell, and it also would have made sense if they did it earlier because with the lockout coming, it feels like if you were going to hire a new GM or president of baseball operations, you need more time to really evaluate the roster and get your bearings and talk to enough of the right people. Where if you were to let the front office go now and try to hire somebody new, that doesn't give you a lot of time ahead of the lockout to not only– evaluate your roster properly, but then make necessary transactions before December 1st. They would have to hire an entire new front office, I would assume. That's kind of what I'm getting at. And I don't think they've given themselves enough time for it. I honestly believe that there is a world that the lockout could be saving the jobs of the front office this year. I don't know if that's the full reason, but I think there's a legitimate chance that that's the case because they feel like they're not going to have enough time to overhaul everything before the work Stoppage begins. 00:13:17 Speaker 2: Where, and that's even if the bosses, the owners, John Stanton and Chris Larson think that the front office has not been doing a good enough job. They've not given any indication that that's what they think. 00:13:28 Speaker 1: Well, we don't know if they they've given an indication that they think they're doing well. They don't ever talk. They never put themselves in public. The only time they have was when Stanton gave a couple of speeches this year for Randy and for the 50th anniversary. And both times he was booed. 00:13:45 Speaker 2: If they were, I think if they were at the beginning of this year, really, really like down on what Jerry and Justin had done, like maybe while they would have done something, but the Mariners were still optimistic at the time that something would have happened. So yeah, with all the other circumstances that have gone on, I find it hard to think that anything would change, right? 00:14:09 Speaker 1: Well, Of course, they were optimistic at the start of the year. At the start of the year, everybody thought they could win the World Series. But again. 00:14:17 Speaker 2: Which is, again, why... But you said that's when it needed to happen. 00:14:22 Speaker 1: Not at the beginning of the year, not May, but probably. 00:14:25 Speaker 2: But even in the middle of the year, the middle of the year, there's still plenty of... Even as down bad as we were, looking at how the league and the division is, you play slightly better baseball than you did in the first half, and all of a sudden you're in the playoffs and anything can happen when your opponents... And the playoffs are like the White Sox and the Rangers. That's like, all right, like anything can happen. But the Niners didn't even give themselves that chance. 00:14:51 Speaker 1: I think the timeline would have been more middle to the end of August, where if by the end of August you've realized, oh, wait, Taylor Ward's a complete disaster. None of the deadline moves are doing anything. The team continues to spiral. They just got blanked by 42-year-old Max Scherzer. That would have been around the time where I think it would have happened. 00:15:08 Speaker 2: But you remember we had this conversation last year as well, where if you don't believe in this front office for the future, where if you're going to, if you were to let them go at the end of August, then you probably didn't really believe in them to operate the trade deadline either. You already had that thought in your mind. So then why would you let them operate a trade deadline and trade your prospects away? 00:15:27 Speaker 1: Well, but if you let them go in early July, you're essentially looking back at your tail for the draft and the trade deadline. But then you don't have a front office in place for the draft or the deadline. 00:15:39 Speaker 2: That's why it's a tough decision to make. That's what the Nats did. 00:15:43 Speaker 1: Remember that? 00:15:47 Speaker 2: A week before they took Eli Willis number one overall, they fired their front office. 00:15:52 Speaker 1: It's true. So, again, it feels like, again, whether we necessarily agree with it, because I think we're pretty open-minded to anything at this point with overhauling the organization. Uh, cause again, like it's been, it has been some pretty brutal sledding as of late for a lot of different people. So that paired with anyway, I'm going on a tailspin here. The point is they have likely bought themselves one more year. And the likelihood of that is because a lockout is playing a factor into that, where if things go badly next year, again, I don't know how they'd possibly stick around. or if things go badly halfway through the season next year, I don't know how they'd possibly stick around, but the work stoppage is likely buying them time. 00:16:40 Speaker 2: So to finish up the original point about the press conferences, it's to me seems unlikely that they do a in season end of season press conference because of the questions about the manager, because of the questions about Dan Wilson and knowing the org has had so much bad PR in the past. I just have a hard time seeing them do that. And then they're not like the press or then after they let go of Dan are going to want more answers on the decision because they didn't get them at the end of season press conference. And it would make it a lot more of a headache for the Mariners. So therefore they just wait until the Wednesday after the season's over. 00:17:23 Speaker 1: Here's still the question I have about the end of season press conference is how many people are at it? Because is it going to be a free for all where anybody in the Seattle media landscape can show up? Or is it going to be, hey, Divish, Adam Jude, Daniel Kramer, Shannon, like you guys can ask all the questions and that'll be our end of season press conference because you guys are the regular reporters on the beat every day. Like, are they going to let everybody show up to this? They should. Well, whether they should and whether they do are two completely different questions. Like, are the Mariners going to let Softee and Aaron Levine roll into this press conference just ready to fire? 00:18:04 Speaker 2: I think if they do a formal press conference, they will announce it as a formal press conference. I mean, if you have a seasoned credential, you can get in. 00:18:16 Speaker 1: Right, but that is announcing it to the media masses. 00:18:24 Speaker 2: I think if they're doing a formal press conference, they will do formal press conference procedure. As opposed to when they do it in the dugout, it's just like whenever Jerry feels like doing it. 00:18:37 Speaker 1: I'm still going to sit here and say we'll see. Because I can't imagine that for, again, an organization that's shown no levels of accountability on basically any level this year... They want a lot of hard-hitting questions. I'm sure they don't. I'm sure they don't. 00:18:52 Speaker 2: But, again, if you do it as a press conference, like, it's just usually how it goes. 00:18:59 Speaker 1: Well, it could be pretty informal. Maybe one day we just see some quotes tweeted out from some of the main beat reporters because Jerry just popped on Zoom one day with them. And, again, saying this is what happens, this is no knock on any of the main beat reporters, Divish, Jude, Shannon, Kramer. They're all great. And they all do their jobs really well. This would be more of a knock-on if the Mariners decide to operate like that. That's not letting the rest of the media in Seattle have every question on their mind asked. It would just be... It would very, very much be controlling a narrative, and not in a good way. 00:19:37 Speaker 2: No. Well, and if you don't let people ask questions, then people are going to come up with their own answers. 00:19:43 Speaker 1: Right. Which, if that's not.... 00:19:46 Speaker 2: That might not be the narrative you want spun either. Well, which again comes back. It's like the Dan Wilson thing. When you don't answer the question, we have to come up with our own answers and you might not like our answers that we're talking about. 00:20:00 Speaker 1: Well, it's not just don't answer the question. You, you royally fuck up and then don't have an answer for it every time. 00:20:06 Speaker 2: That's what it is. 00:20:07 Speaker 1: So yeah, if, if the, if the Mariners don't let all the media come out to this and ask their questions, then yeah, I can only imagine what the narrative is going to be when a lot of people are like, wait, there was an end of season press conference and we knew nothing about it and didn't get an email. And I'm not even really talking about us. Cause like, that's not really our format. Like, you know, we're not big question askers and diggers. Like that's not really what we do. Like other people are more interested in that than we are. if we have somebody on the podcast, we want to dig into questions and ask questions, but not like when I say we're not diggers, not in a, not in a big media landscape and a big scrum, but there are other people that certainly would want to ask their questions. I can guarantee you softy has got things teed up that he wants to ask. But again, if people like that, aren't given the notice of a press conference, then I'm sure there's going to be narratives around that too. 00:21:00 Speaker 2: I will make my official prediction that if they wait until after the season, it will be full attendance. 00:21:06 Speaker 1: And I'm going to say it won't. So we'll see who gets the final say and ends up getting bragging rights. All right. 00:21:13 Speaker 2: Before we get into the main topic of this episode, I want to tell you guys about Emerald Queen Casino's upcoming entertainment lineup. Matt Matthews visits EQC on September 27th. Sons of Legion are there October 4th. Gary Allen on October 9th. And WFC 199 on October 17th. Get your tickets today at EmeraldQueen.com. Emerald Queen Casino is the entertainment capital of the Northwest. And while you're there, you can take your night to the next level at Slough Hall Steakhouse. 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It inspired me to make a social media post about it and has inspired our podcast here today that we're releasing to you. Lyle, after what we've seen this season, and it being year 11 of Jerry DiPoto, is it fair to ask whether or not the Mariners' contention window is closed? 00:23:56 Speaker 1: Definitely fair to ask. Because you just followed up a season to the ALCS where you're going to finish 9 to 10 games under. 500 and miss the playoffs by a lot. in a really, really bad American league. I think there is layers to this because when you hear a contention window's closed, a lot of the time you think that means a lot of the core pieces of your roster are being shipped off elsewhere or leaving in free agency, and in a lot of ways you have to start over. I think there's a difference between the era of Mariners baseball we're in and the contention window being closed. Is that fair? 00:24:31 Speaker 2: Yes, because it depends what you define as a contention window. I define a contention window as giving yourself a chance at the World Series. And now that I've seen 11 seasons worth of this, of Jerry DiPoto-led Mariners baseball, I just can no longer say that this current group is a World Series caliber team. It's not a World Series caliber focus, and there's not World Series caliber investment. So there's no reason for me to look into the future and And say that the contention window for winning a World Series is still open. Because if it was going to be open in any year, it was going to be this year. And the Mariners, I mean, just fucked it up so bad. For me, it's got to be closed unless major change is going to come on a multitude of levels. 00:25:26 Speaker 1: Sure. I mean, you can put last year into the bucket, too, of that contention window being wide open because the American League was really awful last year also. 00:25:35 Speaker 2: And they got close. And then what happened, Teej? And then Dan Wilson happened and Edward Bazzardo happened. But the difference between this year and last year, Lyle, is last year they did something that they don't really do that often, that they haven't been able to pull off successfully that often, and that's add multiple all-star caliber bats to their lineup in the middle of the season. The Mariners probably don't make the World Series, or make the ALCS, if they're not able to do that. And that was, you know, it was in their control, but fate just happened to have the fact your two worst positions... had all Stark Halber players available for you to fill at the deadline, where the same strategy this year didn't work at all. And we've seen without additions like that to the roster at the deadline, you can go back to Luis Castillo in 2022 as part of that, without that being available to you, this Mariners core has not shown the ability to contend for a World Series. So if we're going into next year and you lose your best player, And the rest of the core is just intact. No, I don't think this team competes for a World Series. 00:26:44 Speaker 1: I'm with you. Look at what they've done by year. Usually when you hear World Series contention window, it means you are handedly winning games in the mid to high 90s for each season. The Mariners haven't come close to doing that. They've won 90 games three separate times since the turn of the decade. One of those years they missed the playoffs. One of those years they got swept in the ALDS. And one of those years is the year they had their real run but still didn't even make the World Series. And then they followed it up with what's going to be a 75 to 76 win season. So what are we talking about here? The one year they had their real run, like you just said, they added multiple true impact bats in the middle of their order at the trade deadline to put the roster over the top. But when you look at what the roster is from within, they haven't proven that this roster alone is capable of competing for a World Series. They haven't proven that at all. Again, the one year where they really did that was when they added significant talent from outside the organization. And otherwise, again, Go through the years. 21 missed the playoffs. 22 swept in the ALDS, so in the quarterfinals. 23 missed the playoffs. 24 missed the playoffs. 00:27:56 Speaker 2: In 22, they added significant talent from outside the organization. Right. 00:28:02 Speaker 1: One piece. Yes. 00:28:03 Speaker 2: It was pretty significant. 00:28:05 Speaker 1: Very significant. And Luis did a ton, and the trade was 100% worth it. And the start that he spun in Toronto is a huge reason the Mariners even won one series in that playoff pool that year because he dominated the blue Jays in that start. But you're right. Look at the other years where they didn't do that. I mean, 2023 at the deadline, they went and essentially sold. I mean, they, they didn't do it. I mean, they went and traded Paul Seawald for Dom can zone and Josh Rojas and Ryan bliss, and then didn't do much else either way. 24, they added Randy, which again, that that's done some significant things for them. at points throughout the last couple of years. And then they added Justin Turner, but it still wasn't anywhere close to enough to pushing them over the top. And then this year when you did as little as you've ever done at the deadline, well, I guess paired with 23. 00:29:02 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:29:02 Speaker 1: You've proven that your roster in house was not good enough at all. There is a difference between the era of Mariners baseball going away in the contention window closing. And I thought Adam did a good job when he wrote about this in, uh, in his article where he's saying the same thing we're saying, like the team needs outside talent to come in and make this team better. Cause the, the. 00:29:27 Speaker 2: Current iteration of the Mariners going into next season with 30 year old Cal behind the plate, Naylor coming off of a bad, almost career war season at first base Cole young being solid at second and Cole Emerson unproven at shortstop, by the way, won't swing a bat all offseason, and he might just be penciled into shortstop unless the Mariners go sign a shortstop. Third baseman is Brendan Donovan, who's never been able to stay healthy in his career. Left field is wide open. Julio Rodriguez coming off a career-worst season in center field. Right field is also a question mark. And then you have Dom Canzona DH. That's not a World Series team. 00:30:04 Speaker 1: No. 00:30:05 Speaker 2: But the era of Mariners baseball does continue because your core's in place and you have your pitching staff in place. But just because the era of Mariners baseball continues does not mean the contention window that Jerry DiPoto sold to the fans is a while back, is still open. Because if it was going to happen, it probably would have happened last year. And the tough truth, for a lot of people to understand, most cores only get a crack or two at it before you have to reset, before you have to ship big pieces away or move on from people in the organization. That's just kind of what happens in baseball. The Astros, the difference between, excuse me, the Astros' 2017 World Series run and the 2022 World Series run, they essentially overhauled a good chunk of their pitching staff from 2017 to 2022. 00:30:58 Speaker 1: How many years is that? 00:30:59 Speaker 2: That's what? 18, 19, 21 to five years, right? 00:31:05 Speaker 1: Oh, and by the way, in 22, you let your former number one pick all-star shortstop in Carlos Correa walk out the door and he wasn't playing for you. Like, that was Jeremy Pena's year at shortstop. That was his rookie season. So that was a big subtraction they made, and they made up for it. 00:31:23 Speaker 2: By the way, they had to do it with a new GM and new manager. Hmm. 00:31:29 Speaker 1: That's interesting. Yeah. So, anyway. 00:31:33 Speaker 2: Where, for the Astros, the core pieces stayed the same, but a lot else from the organization changed. Significant pieces changed from 2017 to 2022. 00:31:45 Speaker 1: Right. And they were able to make it work. And even with that, look at the difference between the Dodgers. I'm not going to use them as an example because they're such an outlier. 00:31:55 Speaker 2: Because they just reload on talent year after year after year. 00:32:00 Speaker 1: They live in their own world. The two examples here are the Braves and the Astros. And again, let's go through what the Mariners did one more time this decade. 90 wins missed the playoffs in 21, 90 wins lost in the ALDS in 22, missed the playoffs in 23 and 24 with wins in the mid to high 80s, lost in the ALCS in seven games last year, and are going to miss the playoffs with a sub 500 record this year. The Astros, I guess we can just do since the turn of the decade, but obviously this is a team that was winning 100 plus games in the late 2010s and won a World Series in 17 and nearly won a second World Series in 19. But yeah, here are 2021, 95 wins, got to the World Series. 22, 106 wins, won the World Series. 23, 90 wins, lost in seven games in the ALCS. Then in 24, 88 games, lost in the wildcard. Last year, missed the playoffs. This year, we'll see. But you see the difference there? With a team that has a closing contention window versus what they were doing when it was wide open and the type of runs they were making, even with teams only getting certain cracks at it, In this decade, even despite the Astros winning a World Series in 17, losing in the ALCS in 18, and barely losing the World Series in 19, this is a team that made the ALCS three separate times this decade, won a World Series, lost another, and truly had their window open. Mariners haven't come anything close to that. Not close. By the way, the Astros are about to overhaul things again. They're going to get a new manager and a new GM. Because finally, with this window closing, they're saying, okay, it's time for change. Now, okay, so we got that part of it. 00:33:45 Speaker 2: Oh, how about the Rangers, Lyle? Rangers window was open for one season. 00:33:50 Speaker 1: And they capitalized on it, didn't they? They won it all. They did, yep. 00:33:54 Speaker 2: But my point is, windows aren't open for very long. It's not like the Mariners didn't have a contention window open. 00:34:00 Speaker 1: I think they did. 00:34:02 Speaker 2: I think the window for them was open in 2024, but the roster was not built correctly, so they wasted a historic pitching staff to. 00:34:12 Speaker 1: Which they remedied... Remedy? Remedy? 00:34:16 Speaker 2: Yeah, close enough. For 2025, the problem is they had a manager who was not good enough at his job, and ultimately, when the season was on the line, messed up their opportunity at a World Series. So then we get to a season later... where everything you could name has been bad, and they again squander the talent and the opportunity in front of them, where now we go on to 2026, where the American League will almost certainly be better, and your talent will be worse than it was a season ago. 00:34:48 Speaker 1: How much better will the AL be? I don't know, man. 00:34:52 Speaker 2: You would assume the central teams have to be a little bit better. At least the division leaders are better than they are this year. 00:34:59 Speaker 1: Maybe. I don't think the West is getting much better. No, I don't think it is. By the way, a manager who wasn't good enough is the friendly way to put it. I think it was more than not good enough. Well, yes. He's going to get let go in a week. So yes, I think that's pretty self-explanatory. Incompetent would be the word. Correct. You don't put Edward Bazzardo in that situation. Anyway, we've hammered that drum a million times, but it's worth a million more times hammering the drum because it should never stop being talked about because it's utterly ridiculous. Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is for the Mariners to keep selling their fans on just stay with us and be patient and wait for the window. Well, that's wrong. That's malpractice talking about that at this point. Because again, compare yourselves to the Astros. or compare yourselves to the Braves. I haven't done the Braves comparison yet, but I'll do it right here. Since the turn of the decades, in 2021, 88 wins in 21, but they went on a run and won the World Series. I'm sure that is forever and always what the Mariners are hanging their hats on and latching onto. It's like, well, we can just do what the Braves did in 21. Well, you haven't done that. Most teams don't do that. And the Braves lost their star right fielder that year in Ronald Acuna. They were already playing down, but they made up for it regardless. Anyway, beside the point. After that, 101 wins lost in the NLDS, 104 wins lost in the NLDS, 89 wins lost in the wildcard, had a down year last year with just 76 wins, and then have won 92 games so far this year and are going to win the NL East. We'll see what they do. Now, the Braves have not made any historic runs in the postseason since they won the World Series. Again, they haven't been past the quarterfinals because they've lost in the NLDS. But they have shown much further signs of a contention window being open than the Mariners. This is a team in this decade that won 100 games in back-to-back seasons. They won 101 games and 104 games in 22 and 23. Their offense in 23 was historic. They unfortunately just tripped on their own selves come October. But they have shown much, much clearer signs of having a contention window open than the Mariners. And the Mariners keep selling people on this window. But you're not even close to what a contention window is supposed to look like. You've made the run once with significant talent being added outside your organization at the deadline. Because as you pointed out, Teej, the market just happened to shake out where you had And even if you were to look at the pitching staff, like, I think the pitching staff for the Mariners is very, very, very talented. Yeah. 00:37:58 Speaker 2: But it's not never been enough to win on its own. Even in their best season, it was not enough. The Mariners missed the playoffs in 2024. And the staff was by far the best in Major League Baseball across the board. And then we've seen what happens when they're not the best in baseball. The Mariners need better play from elsewhere. They did not get that this year. And looking at the roster next year, I don't see where that comes from. It's just not collectively enough. which is where it gets to the point of the conversation of what does it take to open the contention window for next season? It's going to take what Lau and I have talked about of like serious outside addition to this team talent wise for that contention window to be open. Cause otherwise there's just not enough to buy in on, in my opinion, from this current core to say that they're contending. Cause I, I don't see it. It's like, It's very, very, very small window right now. 00:38:55 Speaker 1: Correct. And honestly, now that we sit here talking about it, we should pinpoint this topic. We should pinpoint this topic of conversation for some other episode, maybe at some point in the offseason, because I think even deeper into this conversation is what is going to be the driving force of the Mariners next year if they're serious about winning a World Series? What is going to drive them? Because again, the things that the organization continues to sell people on are wrong. You're overselling the talent you have. You're going to sell people on Julio Rodriguez? Well, he's regressed every year of his career, and now this year is having a career-worst season. at 25 years old and could finish with an OPS plus below 100 and an OPS below 700. So selling people that he's your driving force is wrong. He can be a piece of it like we've talked about. He has to be a really key piece of it. But selling people on him being the driving force? 00:39:47 Speaker 2: No. 00:39:48 Speaker 1: Selling people on the road. And then, and then to your, to the other point, selling people on the rotation being the driving force. Well, they haven't been the driving force in two years. They were injured last year and have not proven to be a driving force this year paired with the fact that because you're probably going to have to trade a starter next winter to get significant offensive upgrades, you're going to be putting a lot on two rookies to drive your rotation next year. And I don't know if the pitching staff's in the same spot that it would have been in in 2023 and 24 when they were putting up these crazy numbers. So if it's not going to be Julio and it's not going to be your rotation, which they are proving that they need significant outside help around them to be at their best, what is going to be the driving force of this team? 00:40:32 Speaker 2: 30-year-old catcher coming off an oblique injury all season? 00:40:39 Speaker 1: The Mariners should look long and hard in the mirror about this question this offseason. So should every fan. What is going to be the driving force of this team in 2027? Because selling people on Julio and the rotation at this point ain't it. And I don't think people should continue to just sip the tea and buy into that. Because they're not proving on the field that that's the case. No, they're not. 00:41:02 Speaker 2: If that contention window is going to be open next year, the roster is going to need to look a lot different. There's going to be a lot of the Seattle Mariners that needs to look different next year to, I think, have a solid basis of a contention window. It doesn't have to end this era of Mariners baseball. There just needs to be more. 00:41:23 Speaker 1: Because. 00:41:24 Speaker 2: the status quo is just, it's just not been enough. And everyone around this team, covering this team, talking about this team every day has just seen enough to where you say like, you can be a good team. You can be a talented team. It doesn't mean you're a contender. And if contending is the goal, yeah, I absolutely think there needs to be more. So yeah, I thought that was a fun question about the contention window. There could be a 1%, 1%, perfect scenario that happens and the mariners current core wins a world series next year but this is the seattle mariners let's be real is the one percent thing ever happening no never. 00:42:04 Speaker 1: Well it got close and then you employed a manager doesn't know how to manage a bullpen and george springer hits one to the moon. 00:42:12 Speaker 2: Last year wasn't a one percent what the braves did in 21 is a one percent. 00:42:18 Speaker 1: Oh, OK. 00:42:18 Speaker 2: It's like if like if Julio was out for the year and the pitching staff was decimated and they they brought together like a rad tag group of guys to go go and win a World Series like great. But no, like the Mariners won. The Mariners won the West last year. They had a top 10 offense by run scored. 00:42:36 Speaker 1: Yeah, like that's fair. No, that's fair. They were pretty talented. Yeah, that Braves team, now I see what you mean. Because that Braves team went at that deadline and traded for Jock Peterson, for Adam Duvall, for Eddie Rosario, for, yeah, a lot of players on the margins who all came together and helped that team win it all. 00:42:53 Speaker 2: It's like Rob Refsnyder being the driving force behind the Mariners winning the World Series this year. 00:43:01 Speaker 1: Yeah, it would have been like Ref Snyder being that type of player and then trading for Taylor Ward, who was also that type of player. And then if they had traded for IKF, who happened to OPS 900 for two months and just catch lightning in a bottle, it would have been something like that. But yeah, so now I see what you mean by the 1%. By the way, we were talking about this pre-recording. This is a topic for this offseason and for another day. But we were talking about what other players the Mariners could go out and try and address this off season for how they get this team that much better. I'll just throw it out there. We'll have the full conversation to some other point. I'm sure. I don't know if he's really going to be available, but I would give up a lot to go get Geraldo Perdomo and the Diamondbacks need starting pitching. And Diamondbacks are also due for a reset. Correct. Cause they're likely going to let, let Cattell go in some sort of fashion. Tori Lovello may be gone as the manager. I mean, Some of their rotation's pretty old. So, yeah, they need pitching. 00:44:00 Speaker 2: They get a haul back for Perdomo. The problem is he's got a lot of control. 00:44:04 Speaker 1: He's got three years and then a club option, so really four years of control. But whatever, man. Again, we can talk about it on a different episode, but I would give up one of the starters and serious prospects for Perdomo. Not Sloan, not Cade, but a big league starter and some serious position player prospects to go get Perdomo. Yeah. he does a lot of things that this team desperately needs. So I'll leave it, I'll leave it out there. 00:44:30 Speaker 2: I want to hear what you guys have to think about the Mariners contention window being open or closed. I'd love to see what kind of discussion you guys have down in the comments out. 00:44:37 Speaker 1: There on YouTube. 00:44:38 Speaker 2: You can leave one on Spotify. You can send us an email, leave a comment on the quote cards in the morning. I'd be curious to hear. 00:44:45 Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll cut, I'm sure we'll cut a couple of these parts of the conversation into social media clips too. So if you see us put anything out on social media around these topics, let us know there. But, I am curious. I don't think it's as cut and dry as people think, where if people's answers are, well, no, it's not close. You have all the same players. I think there's more to it than that. I really do. 00:45:05 Speaker 2: It depends what your definition of a contention window is. Contention to be good or contention to win a World Series. I think are two very different things. The Mariners are definitely in a window of being good. Like they could be good next year. 00:45:16 Speaker 1: Yeah, right. But I don't want good. We've seen good. 00:45:20 Speaker 2: Good has left us frustrated the last five seasons. How are you going to dethrone the Dodgers or the Braves? Because if you want to win a World Series, you're going to have to do that. How are you going to build a team to do that? 00:45:32 Speaker 1: That's the question. All right. That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full-form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure to download these episodes if you're listening. Go rate and review. Please leave it five stars. It helps a ton. Go hit subscribe on YouTube if you're watching. If you're... online go check us out at our website which is marine layer pod.com you can find our episodes there also podcast merch is all there go get yourself some marine layer pod merch if you haven't done so already especially with fall and winter season coming into play with hoodies and long sleeve shirts being the type of clothing wear i'm sure you'll be wearing now in this season and we've got a bunch of it over at our site so you can check that out you can check our patreon out And then you can also go follow us anywhere on social media at Marine Layer Pod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.