Episode 57: Failures In Extra Innings Could Cost The Mariners A Playoff Spot

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number fifty seven of the Marine Layer Podcast. Today we'll talk about the Mariners failures and extra innings this season and how that could be the reason they miss the postseason. Speaking of the postseason, we'll give our confidence level on how confident we are that the team is going to make it to the finish line and get into the postseason field. We'll go down on the farm and big out a standout Mariners minor leaguer, take a look around baseball at their MOLB rap around. You guessed it. There's more Angels news this week, so we have to talk about it. We'll close out the show with our Russell Wilson umpire for the week and speak your mind. 00:00:33 Speaker 2: And I'll reminder to you guys before we start the show, make sure you're watching us on YouTube. If you're listening on our audio side, head over to YouTube, hit subscribe, like comment, and turn the notification bells on that way you know when we post anything. And if you're watching us on YouTube, check us out on the audio side too on Apple, Spotify, Google, and Amazon. If you do so, follow us, download our episodes, leave us a five star review. I know we stress it every show, but we really mean it. The reviews and the downloads help us out a lot, and then check us out on social media. We're always active there. Those of you that follow us on there, you know that Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube shorts. Find us there at Marine Layer Pod. 00:01:13 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling and we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording postgame here on Monday, September eighteenth. And despite the Mariners win tonight, while I've come to a conclusion in the month of September, the American League West is engaged in an old fashion mid off. 00:01:48 Speaker 2: What you weren't inspired by the Astros losing series to the A's and Royals. I thought that was pretty inspiring. 00:01:54 Speaker 1: I'm just thinking about this because people were bitching and complaining about the Mariners performance in September, and good reason. The Mariners have played like shit in September, and we'll highlight a little of that in our first storyline. But think of this, lile, just think of some of the series losses the American League West has had this month. They have been the American League West, that is, have been swept by the Yankees, swept by the Guardians, have lost series to the A's Royals, Twins, Reds, Mets, Rays, and swept by the Dodgers. 00:02:31 Speaker 2: The Dodgers series this weekend was for a word we often like to use, not only so much on this podcast, but I'm gonna bring it here, feeble. That was a feeble weekend out of the Seattle Mariners. 00:02:44 Speaker 1: How do you lose on Sunday when half the Dodgers' rosters hung over. 00:02:49 Speaker 3: Look, we don't know if they were hungover. 00:02:50 Speaker 2: Obviously we're gonna joke that they were, because well, they clinched the NL West on Saturday night after beating the Mariners, and there were apparently shots on the Dodgers broadcast of players taking shots in the clubhouse. So you can only assume not to mention the fact that hungover or not. They were giving guys off days, and it was all the main guys. It's Mookie off Day Sunday, Freddie Freeman off day, Sunday, Will Smith off day, Monsey off day, Logan Gilbert on the mound with the Dodgers essentially going with a sort of bullpen day. They had Yarborough go a few, they had Gavin Stone go a few and you lose handedly like it wasn't even close. That was the game where you think, oh, they'll salvage the series. One of three isn't great, but the Dodgers are a good team. It's not the end of the world if they lose the series. No, they they got swept and they lost the Logan Gilbert start. 00:03:39 Speaker 1: Colton Long drove in a couple of runs over the weekend. Austin Barnes, one of the worst hitters in baseball, with a two run home run on Sunday. It's just been quite the performance for the division this month. I mean, I was telling you, if someone wanted to win this thing and essentially do what the Mariners did in August in the first two weeks of September, I think the division would be out of hand by now. But instead, to the Mariners benefit, all three of these teams have managed to be some sort of anept over this stretch. And now here we sit on a Monday night, the Mariners are tied with the Rangers and a game and a half back of the Astros, with that ten game stretch still looming later on this week. It is about to get bonkers. 00:04:29 Speaker 3: Yeah, we were. 00:04:29 Speaker 2: Saying seven or eight days ago that despite the Mariners being within two games of first we said, oh, well, looking at the Astro schedule, they have the A's and the Royals upcoming. In other words, they're not winning the West, so let's just focus on the wildcard. 00:04:43 Speaker 3: We said that, and. 00:04:44 Speaker 2: Now here we sit, despite the Mariners not playing even close to their best baseball over the last week, nowhere close to it, they still have a shot to win the AO West. Yet that being said, they have no cushion in the wildcard standings either. So I'll just double up on what you said. You better buckle up Mariners fans, cuz come Friday, every game is gonna start to feel like a playoff game. 00:05:08 Speaker 1: And there was more of that voodoo Orioles magic for how the Astros lost tonight. I mean, it's just your like the Meritors fans have seen this this season, and we talked about it with Derek Van Riper last week we previewed the playoff field. By the way, if you haven't listened to that, go back and listen to that episode with Derek more of a national view of the American League playoff field. We did talk a little about the Orioles, but it's so fascinating watching them on how they win games. I mean, it was just classic tonight. They are down two runs, seven to five in the ninth inning. One of the best relievers in the American League, Grian Presley, is on the mound. He's just nails, and it just doesn't matter because the Orioles come up with a three run, go ahead home run in the top of the ninth inning and boom, they've already clinched a playoff spot. Doesn't matter. That's exactly what they did against the Mariners and their four wins against the Ms of the season. They do it to the Astros again and to the M's benefit. So at this point you're done playing the Orioles. So do it again tomorrow. 00:06:09 Speaker 2: And let's hope the Mariners win again tomorrow against the A's and then on Wednesday against the A's considering they won Monday start where Brian Wuz obviously had his good starts throughout the year, but he's also we've touched on it a million times now, way over his career high in season innings, so he's it's expected that maybe he'd start to get a little bit fatigued although I will say his start here on Monday gave him a chance to win with the five shoutout innings, and he was he was certainly good enough. I called his start above average. You have Luis and George Kirby going the next two days, You've got to win those games against the A's. There's no reason not to sweet to. 00:06:44 Speaker 1: Win like fifteen nothing combined, probably, you would think, and they you know, you got to re least you got to rest Brash and Topa as well tonight or sorry, Brash and Munoz tonight. So yeah, yeah, yep, and then you can an off day on Thursday Day and then the real games begin. Like we sat here after Sunday and the Mariners just got swept by the Dodgers. But still like because of all these other results from around the American League West, it really, no matter what happened in this month of September, was always gonna come down to those ten games at the end of the season. No matter what they did against the Dodgers, no matter what they're gonna do this week against the A's, it all comes down to the final ten games of the season. And that's where Brian was next start is gonna be oh so important. I'll get one extra day of rest for his next start, But the Mariners are gonna have to in this first series against Texas. I'm gonna start two rookies in that series, and two rookies the last time those two teams played in that ballpark had tough outings. It's gonna be it's gonna be a measuring stick performance when the Mariners really need it the most. Later on this week, they're all. 00:07:53 Speaker 2: Gonna feel like playoff games. I'll say it again. They've been on a crash course for this now, for weeks. These games like we've had a circle on the schedule for weeks and weeks now. Even when the Mariners were red hot in August, we said it's gonna come down to this, It's gonna come down to those ten games. It's gonna come down to that that week and a half, and it is. Nothing's changing in the next couple of days that would alter that narrative. So I'll just say it again, Strap in and get ready, because come Friday, every game is gonna feel like a postseason game. 00:08:24 Speaker 1: Let's get to our Mariners' storylines. We're talking postseason and if the Mariners take care of business the next ten games games, they will most likely make the playoffs. Now a reason low they might not make the playoffs. Their performance in extra innings might be a reason they don't make the playoffs. Mean, their performance in extra innings this season has been atrocious. 00:08:46 Speaker 2: So remember how they thrived in extra innings in both twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two. You always figure there was gonna be some regression with that, but I never thought it would get to this level. Because here they sit this season. They are six and fourteen in extra inning games this year, six and fourteen, So not only is their sample size as large as just about anybody's in baseball, but they have not capitalized on it in any way whatsoever. 00:09:14 Speaker 1: Fourteen extra innings losses. Just think of it. If you were to even out that record and say, okay, every team is essentially balanced and extra innings with the runner on second, you'll be ten and ten with twenty games, And if the Mariners have four extra games for extra innings, you flip four outcomes of extra innings towards the Mariners. They have a three game, two and a half game lead in first place right now. 00:09:40 Speaker 2: And you talk about four games. If anybody's sitting there thinking themselves, well, four games is kind of a lot. You want me to throw a couple out there for you. How about the Nationals game where they had bases loaded, nobody out, did not score the Angels just this past week, bases loaded, nobody out, did not score. How about the Twins game after the Colton Wong home run, which they then coughed up. And then how about that Guardians game all the way back in April that went twelve innings and they had their chances time after time after time to win that game, and they lost that game too. There's four games right there that make all the difference in the world in this season. 00:10:16 Speaker 1: And it's not just those opportunities you mentioned the ultimate crippling factor in this version of extra innings that Major League Baseball has, where there's a runner on second base, if you don't score a run, you're kind of fucked. The Mariners have gone scoreless in extra innings ten times this season. Being given a runner on second base with nobody out, They're only scoring that guy fifty percent of the time. 00:10:47 Speaker 2: You would think, I mean the way so the way things were set up when the runner on second rule was implemented, you thought that the first run wouldn't matter all that much. It's not like you want to give it up. But the idea is that first run isn't gonna matter all that much because when you have a guy on second base nobody out, the probability suggests that he's gonna score fairly. Often, where it starts to make a difference, usually in extra innings, is if a second run scores in that top half of an inning, because that's where the distance starts to separate the two teams, because that second run is the key run because obviously the opposing team's going to get a shot with a runner on second base. 00:11:25 Speaker 3: Two. 00:11:25 Speaker 2: Well, that hasn't seemed to matter for the Mariners this year because what's happened is for as good and nails as their bullpen's been. Yeah, with a guy on second nobody out, sometimes you're going to give up a runner or a run to score. But what happens when that situation plays itself out is the Mariners will get up to the plate they need to run. They have a guy on second base with nobody out, and they just won't drive him in. We've seen that happen time after time this year. 00:11:51 Speaker 1: I misspoke, actually, because one of those ten games they didn't score in multiple extra innings, So it's less than half the time, I would say, like to put it percentage wise, and that just shouldn't happen. And we're looking at just margins of making the playoffs, and throughout the course of a long season, you can pick one thing here, one thing there that can change the course of a whole season. And you go back and watch some of these extra inning games the Mariners have played, and it's just kind of sitting there in front of them. There's all this bitching about the roster and the money spent and the performance of guys on the field throughout the course of this enormous one hundred and sixty two game regular season. But we sit here looking at this sample of twenty extra inning games, and how many total innings have they even played an extra innings this year? I think it's like twenty. It's around twenty innings they've played in a little over twenty, a little over twenty innings they played an extra innings this year. That's the difference right now between them making and missing it. Just those twenty innings, and that's a little annoying. 00:13:03 Speaker 2: It's gonna be a little bit more than that, right because they've played twenty extra inning games. 00:13:06 Speaker 1: It's probably like twenty six, twenty seven to twenty eight, regardless, the number is not that large. And yet that those results right there in those innings changed the course of a season as we see. Imagine if the Mariners had a twelve and eight record extra innings right now, the West would be almost one at this point, which is entirely possible. 00:13:31 Speaker 2: Again, even if they even if they just win the four games I outlined, they're not a slam dunk to win the West at this point, but they have a lead, and it would be theirs to lose. They'd be in pretty good shave. I'll tell you what. They won those four games again, that early that April Guardians game in Cleveland, the Twins game with the Colton Wonghomer, the Nationals game where they stranded the bases loaded with nobody out, and then the Angels game just a week ago where they left the bases loaded with nobody out. You win those four games and you are more than sitting comfortable to at least get a wild card spot right now, that's not the case. And you know what the root of the issue here is on the offensive side of the ball. I'm about to tee up for something. They don't hit with two strikes in extra innings. 00:14:15 Speaker 1: No, they don't. It's it's remarkable. They have ready for it. A WRC plus. 00:14:24 Speaker 3: Of four. 00:14:27 Speaker 1: In extra innings with two strikes four. So you get these guys to two strikes in extra innings and it's done. You only need to throw essentially sixty six percent of the strikes you need to to get yourself out of an inning against the Mariners in extra innings this year sixty six percent. How is that not I'm not even the over So the league performance is a four forty six WRC plus with two strikes four percent. 00:15:06 Speaker 2: So on the one hundred scale, that's ninety six percent below league average. But on the two strike scale, where forty six percent of the league average, they're forty two percent below that. 00:15:18 Speaker 3: Yeah that's insane. 00:15:19 Speaker 1: Yeah that's bad. And here's another thing I thought of. Could it be bad luck, because again we're looking at a sample of like thirty innings right here that could dictate the Mariners season. No, I don't think so, because here's how I'll look at luck one run losses or your win loss record in one run games. 00:15:45 Speaker 4: Remember how in beginning the season the Mariners were really struggling in one run games. It was it was a little troubling. People were like, oh, regression is coming. They've been so good in one run games the last two seasons. It's gonna come. 00:15:56 Speaker 1: Around on them. They're twenty three and twenty five and one run games sounds pretty even to me. So it really comes down to execution. 00:16:10 Speaker 2: Then, not to mention, we know this team's had its strikeout issues this year and combine it with the fact that it's happened in crucial situations. It's not the pitching in extra innings. It's not that the relievers are never to blame in an extra innings loss, but more often than not, it has been the bats. This bullpen has been a top five group this year. The offense, as good as they've been over the last month and a half or so, we've seen the strikeout issues and we've seen them have issues late in games. 00:16:39 Speaker 1: It's just kind of annoying. Look, the pitching staff goes from a good step like it doesn't regret. It's kind of odd. They don't even regress that much in extra innings. They have a four to h three ra you know, on a rate basis. In extra innings they allow no ps of about eight hundred, which is a little so high, but a lot of that is inflated by the fact that intentional walks are much higher in extra innings because they just want to fill up the base pads and get a force out. The hitting is use I think where the problem mostly is in extra innings. They because you know, they hit one eighty seven, they have an eighty five WRC plus overall. I mentioned with two strikes, it's four. That's just bad. Now here's the worst thing. I texted you about this yesterday. Let me bring this up. I think we brought this up before the run expectancy matrix run expectancy because we every single inning in extra innings you have a runner on second and nobody out. That is certain, every single extra inning you play that is the case. The run expectancy with a runner on second and nobody out is a run A little over a run like you said you said earlier, but now like this is the number to back it up. A run is expected to be scored in extra innings by both teams, and it's whoever scores that second run that pushes the team over the top. And they managed to de fly the chart, the almighty fangrafts run expectancy chart. The Mariners flipped two birds at and said, you know what, we're not listening to you. We're instead we're instead gonna go scoreless in ten of our twenty extra inning games. That's incredible stuff. 00:18:31 Speaker 3: We can't stress it enough. 00:18:32 Speaker 2: You think it's not gonna be the difference maker it will be if they don't make the playoffs. 00:18:36 Speaker 3: This is what it's gonna boil down to. 00:18:38 Speaker 2: I will say, though, it is a little interesting to look at the extra inning records of the other teams they're fighting with, because especially the other teams in the Al West, the Astros, by the way, they're one in eight in extra innings this year. The Texas Rangers they're two and eight. I kind of scratched my head at that. I was not expecting to see those numbers. 00:19:00 Speaker 1: So maybe it is like, see, it's kind of odd when you bring those numbers up, because then it's like, well, the Rangers are like, okay, well what if we flipped our extra inning records, say four games, and then the Astros flip their record four games as well. I think the thing that's most annoying about the Mariners, though, is fourteen extra innings losses in a season is pretty bad. First of all, that's a lot of extra inning games to begin with, let alone fourteen times that you've actually lost in extra innings. So those teams at least take care of business in regulation. 00:19:37 Speaker 2: Oh and just from a fans perspective, the fact we've had to sit through more than a Baker's dozen extra inning losses this year, some of which have just been gout wrenching losses, have been no fun whatsoever to watch. 00:19:54 Speaker 1: It's gotten to the point where every time the Mariners are in extra innings, I expect to lose. Like that's what it is. They go to extra innings against the Dodgers on Saturday night and I said game over every time, especially after the eighth inning. Right the eighth inning, they have the perfect opportunity in the world to score, put themselves ahead. Don't do it. Oh, by the way, Low, would you like to now, since you were there and Scott already talked about it, tell people why bunning and extra innings ain't it well? 00:20:27 Speaker 2: Scott explained it pretty well. On Sunday, they said, oh, why isn't JP bunning? And I love Scott's answer about well, first two guys got on. If JP were to bun and Julio comes up, Scott, these are Scott's words, not mine. He goes, what do you think is gonna happen with Julio with a free base open at first and two guys in scoring position? And Scott goes, because, I'll tell you what. I think they'd just thrown fastballs right down the middle and just attack them. As his sarcastic way of saying, yeah, of course, they'd put him on first base. And then he says, and then the guy coming up after him, are they going to face that same lefty on the mound. No, they would go get the right hander that fares much better against the Mariners right handers than the aforementioned south pot. That's why you don't bunt with JP. Crawford and extras. Not to mention JP's been your clutches hitter all year. No, you're not taking the bat out of his hands. 00:21:20 Speaker 3: Please. 00:21:21 Speaker 2: This podcast, as you know, is an anti bunting podcast. I don't want to see any player on the Mariner's roster bunning. Ever, I don't care who it is. I don't fund just swing away. 00:21:32 Speaker 1: And yet we were just not shocked at all to see that discourse come up on Saturday when it was the eighth inning. It was that the like you said, the two guys on JP and Julio coming up after and then they strike out the side. Unfortunately, but it can't always work out. You know, JP could have popped out bunting and then people would have bitch that why did JP bunt? 00:21:54 Speaker 2: Oh that's the other thing Scott said about bunning. The the probability on you successfully dropping down a bun is about thirty percent. It's not some slam dunk. It's not some high percentage outcome. It's really not because guys don't practice bunny. JP Crawford, who's been one of your best hitters, needs to be swinging away. 00:22:13 Speaker 1: So well, why doesn't JP practice bunning? He should? Everyone should know how to bun. 00:22:19 Speaker 3: No, this isn't. 00:22:20 Speaker 2: Middle school baseball. Nope, these are professional ballplayers. Like I don't know what to tell these fans their their lost causes. I will say though, back to the extra innings thing, really quick The Blue Jays, to be fair, have pretty much taken care of business and extras this year. 00:22:35 Speaker 3: They're ten and eight, so they've done what they're supposed to do. 00:22:39 Speaker 1: Regardless. The Mariners, if they have any extra inning games here down the stretch, like they gotta do it, they like they have to. There is no more room for failure in extra innings this season because it is getting to the point where it could cost them a playoff spot. It absolutely could, and this is them needing to make up for the failures earlier on in the season. 00:23:04 Speaker 2: Before we get to our second storyline, here, quick word from our friends over at Pagotcha's Pub eighty five. That's Pigotcha's Pub eighty five in Kirkland. It's on eighty fifth Street, just east of four oh five. It's got good parking, great food, great beer, and all the sports you could want to watch on TV. There's twenty two TVs inside the bar, so go hang out with your friends, grab some family members, you want to go watch some live sporting events, head over to Pub eighty five and you can get a great meal out of it with some great drinks as well. Speaking of drinks, they've got some happy hour deals too, So Monday through Friday they're happy hour hours are two to six pm, which will include three dollars domestic beers, four dollars Manny's Blue Moons, four dollars Mac and Jack's, four dollars Wells, and four dollars housewine. So again, Pagotcha's Pub eighty five and experienced food drinks. It's all you could ask for on eighty fifth Street in Kirkland. 00:23:57 Speaker 3: Go check it out. That's Pagotcha's Pub eighty five. 00:24:02 Speaker 5: This fall, stream your favorites and discover more with Disney Plus, Hulu and ESPN Plus together. Watch the highly anticipated new season of Loki and see the ghost materialize in Haunted Mansion on Disney Plus. Catch more frights with The Boogeyman, an American horror story Delegate on Hulu and on ESPN Plus. Get into the action with college football and NFL. All of these and more streaming now. Get the Disney Bundle with plans starting at nine to ninety nine a month. Plans with ESPN Plus starting at fourteen ninety nine a month. Terms apply. See Diisney Bundle dot com for details. 00:24:43 Speaker 2: Okay, second storyline, TJ. We just talked about what could cost the Mariners a playoff spot, and that is how they fared an extra innings. But let's just get to the root of the issue right here. Where is your confidence level that the Mariners are in the dance at the end the regular season after Game one sixty two. 00:25:03 Speaker 1: If we're rating it on a scale of one to ten, I'm at a five, And that's kind of a I kind of hate that answer because this is me not taking a side, and it frustrates me. I hate not having to take a side because I also just watch the Mariners crush the A's and I can easily see them do it each of the next two times. My pessimism, my pessimism I pronounced that right, stems from the fact I think the pitching staff is running on fumes and that there is no reinforcements left. We touched on this last week, and the final ten game stretch of the season is really gonna push them. It's really gonna push them to the edge of what this pitching staff can possibly do. But then I'm on the other side, and I just watched this team in August dominate, just absolutely dominate. We know they can hit, we know they can pitch. We know this pitching staff is the best in baseball. We know it would be the best rotation in the playoffs if they managed to make it. So why can't that team go in a ten game stretch and go win seven or eight of those ten games against teams that you probably can and should beat at this point from how they've shown you that they've played here in the second half, why can't they do that? I'm just so torn at this point, lyle, I don't know what side to pick, and this seems like just life as a Mariners fan. 00:26:31 Speaker 2: We're pretty close on our grades and full transparency here. I wrote this out and gave out my confidence level on paper before the Monday game today against the A's, so I gave it a six out of ten. We're pretty close. I'm a tad more optimistic than you are. And look, the two sides of this coin are if you want to look at the negative side, there are reasons to have pessimism. This team has not farewell against teams with records about five hundred this year. Last year that wasn't an issue. By the way, the Mariners had a record better than five hundred when they played teams that were over five hundred last year. Sometimes their deal last year was they would just play up or down to the level of competition, and they would lose games that they should not have lost. Well, this year, they haven't fared as well against teams above five hundred. They're not playing great baseball right now. We just saw what happened against the Dodgers. We remember the extra innings loss about a week ago to the Angels. But I don't know the other side of this coin is I just have this odd feeling that for how cold they've been over the last week or week and a half, or really September as a whole, something's gonna click when it matters most. Is there's no analytics behind this. There's no numbers, there's no saber metrics. This is just a gut feeling that something's going to click for this team when it matters most down the stretch, along with the fact that if it is going to boil down to them and the Rangers. We talked about this with Derek Van Rper last week. The Rangers, outside of a short winning streak just a few days ago, have played awful baseball over the last five or six weeks. As we currently speak, they're not playing good baseball at all. There are rotations depleted, their bullpen is awful, So the Mariner's fare better in both of those categories. And if it's going to boil down to that and the Rangers trying to hold leads in close games against the Mariners when they play over these seven games, I like the Mariner's chance is much more than I do the Rangers. So I'm not giving it a nine out of ten, but I'm a little more optimistic and went with the six out of ten. 00:28:25 Speaker 1: My pessimism stands mostly from this performance in September. There's some troubling trends here, especially with the pitching staff. Not just do they have nearly four or five EIRA for this month. The FIP is near five at four to seven five. The walk rate is up, the strikeout rate is down. The weighted on base average, which we've talked about here before, up forty four points. The slugging percentage is up sixty points this month. Those are all trends the Mariners have been very good at negating, especially on the pitch side this year, and they're all going in the wrong direction and it's not like you faced elite, elite, elite offenses this month. The Reds are a good offense. The Dodgers are a pretty pretty darn good offense. But the Dodgers didn't even have an unbelievable offensive series I thought. I thought they just for the most part, executed well. Besides that, I mean, the Mets and like the Rays hit pretty well. But it's just some trends that I do not like. I do not like, and that's that's coupled with the fact the team has hit a WRC plus seventy of ninety seven this month. 00:29:39 Speaker 2: Does a factor in at all for you that not only do the Rangers have an atrocious bullpen, but they also no longer have Max Scherzer. Obviously they don't have Jacob deGrom of all, they just got off the IL and guys like Martin Perez have not pitched well this year. Like that rotation is hanging on by a threat in Texas. 00:29:57 Speaker 1: I think most of my grade came from looking at the Mariners and less around them, which is probably a mistake on my part because the playoff picture is it is about the Mariners, but it's also about who they're competing with. For these playoff spots. It's gonna be interesting to see. I'm really fascinated. I cannot wait for these next couple of weeks. It's it's it's gonna be it's gonna be great. It's really gonna be great. 00:30:23 Speaker 2: As a baseball fan, it's all you can ask for. I mean, if it if you're not a Mariners fan and you're just looking in at the AOS and the AO wild Card, you'd say, sign me right up. This is what baseball is all about. It's gonna be as exciting as it can possibly be in the last couple of weeks. 00:30:36 Speaker 5: Here. 00:30:37 Speaker 2: Now, let's twist the narrative like this, as we sit here on Monday night, after the Mariners just want against the A's, can they go eight and for the rest of the year, and that includes the next two games against the A's, because if they do that, they're at ninety wins, and ninety wins is usually that magic number that gets. 00:30:52 Speaker 1: Yet, yes, they can wait for yeah, okay, so. 00:30:57 Speaker 2: Then if they if they can sweep the A's, which let's stress again with Luis Castillo and George Kirby going Tuesday and Wednesday, they should, there's no reason not to. Then it turns into six and four and those ten games. If they can go six and four, that should do it. 00:31:12 Speaker 1: Here's a little bit more where my nerves come from of my pessimism for my grade again being a five out of ten against the Texas Rangers, who we know still can hit. That that's the one thing that has stayed with them throughout This hasn't been quite as elite as the first half of the season, but they still do have a number of quality big league hitters, including what San Shoheo Tani is the American League MVP, and Corey Seeger. Brian wo and Bryce Millers will start three games against Texas. Three of the seven games upcoming over this final stretch of the season will be started by Bryce Miller and Brian wu who both faced the Rangers at the Rangers Peak in June and got obliterated. So we're hoping this time around there will be some adjustments made and that those two can pitch better. It's been a shaky stretch for those for both of them, we've highlighted it. It's definitely been a shaky stretch down here as their innings have been stretched out a little bit more and relying on those guys for nearly half of your starts against the Texas Rangers, the team you need to beat, does lean for some more pessimism. 00:32:30 Speaker 2: I like how we're going back and forth on the optimism pessimism here, because I'm about to throw another punch of optimism at you. Brian Wo's last two starts have been pretty good. Bryce Miller start on Saturday against the Dodgers was pretty solid. And let's be fair to Brian Wu. As we said all the way back when when they played the Rangers in that series you're referencing, that was Brian Wu's debut and it was on pretty short notice. He didn't have his best stop. I think Brian Wu was a little different now than he was back in June. 00:32:56 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna like, I'm not trying to be a pass I'm really not, but I'm going to stress the difference between the Angels lineup Brian Wu face last week, the A's lineup he faced tonight, and the lineup of the Texas Rangers. It's like, that's fair. 00:33:15 Speaker 3: That is fair. I can get behind that. 00:33:17 Speaker 1: So Brian's gonna need to pitch better, that's for sure. I don't even know what to expect from Brian Woos, like five innings in three or four runs acceptable. I guess if like the Rangers pitching staff really is in tatters, that in theory should be enough. 00:33:35 Speaker 2: But I don't know, five and four might be cutting it close. If you can go five and two, you take. 00:33:40 Speaker 1: It five and two. Yeah, Okay, Well, I'm at the point where I'm a see and believe at five and two against the Rangers, at least against the Rangers against the Astros. I mean, notice how we haven't even talked about the Astros, the team currently in first place. Well, the Mariners have handled them this season like no issue at all, and I'm not. I don't know if I'm really nervous about the Astros. They lose two of three to the Astros. It's more of an oh well at this point because they've taken care of business against the Astros this season. They haven't against the Rangers. 00:34:12 Speaker 2: The aos at this point is a luxury first and foremost. You have to get into the playoffs. And I will say Bryce Miller's last start was against a very good team in the Dodgers. Five and a third, shutout, one walk. That's something to build on. I know Brian Wu hasn't faced the toughest opponent. In his last couple outings. Bryce Miller went five and a third shutout against the Dodgers. Maybe he's building. 00:34:35 Speaker 1: Remember his starts don't even need to be good anymore, as I highlight it, it just needs to be good enough. And at that point this point, good enough is always require. Okay, So officially I'm at a five for my confidence level. You're at a six. It is funny how two weeks ago we did this. I mean we'd probably be what three points higher each? 00:34:58 Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, Baseball do that to you want it. It takes you on a roller coaster all season long, especially when you're a Mariners fan. You get swung on that roller coaster in all different ways. By the way, if you're listening, let us know in our comments what you'd grade the Mariner's confidence level of making the playoffs or what your confidence level is in the Mariners to make the playoffs. You can tag us on Twitter, on Instagram, YouTube, whatever you want. Let us know where your confidence levels at. 00:35:27 Speaker 1: Before we get to on the farm, let's hear a little bit from Betterhelp. Is something interfering with your happiness or preventing you from achieving your goals. 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Clicking that link helps support this podcast, but also gets you ten percent off your first month of Betterhelp, so you can connect with a therapist and see if it helps you. So if you're struggling, consider online therapy with Better Help click the link in the description or visit betterhelp dot com slash Marine layer Pod. Okay, let's go down on the farm. Who do you got this week? 00:36:50 Speaker 2: Lyle So, Riley O'Brien's when pretty lights out into Cooma just about all year, but especially over the last month and a half or so. So the season is vra sits at two thirty eight with the Rainiers. He has allowed one earned run since the start of August. This is somebody we haven't highlighted a whole lot who deserves his shine. Has pitched really well on Triple A this year. And what's another reason I'm highlighting this. They have got to find somebody to replace dominant leone. They just have to do it. And if it's not going to be Prelander Barrea, who would probably be our first vote, as we've talked about, then here's Riley O'Brien, who's twenty eight, a little bit older. He's a level above Baroa. He's a short car ride away from t Mobile Park. I don't see why you wouldn't give him a shot. Le owns look pretty shaky every time he's been out there. O'Brien's look pretty sharpened. 00:37:43 Speaker 3: Tacoma. 00:37:44 Speaker 1: Yeah, how many more home runs do we have to watch Don Leone give up before the decision gets made? 00:37:51 Speaker 2: I don't know, but I would not feel comfortable with him on a postseason roster. Now, maybe he never pitches, but if you're going to get to the last guy in a bullpen, I'd probably rather have it be Riley O'Brien, or just somebody that's already pitched in the big leagues this year. If it's Ryder Ryan, if it's well, Devin Sweet's gone because they decided to claim dominant Leon And you know, I was a Devin Sweet guy. Somebody that's pitched in the big leagues this year, right, Even if they were to call up Want, then again, I would feel better about that than Leon. 00:38:24 Speaker 3: So it's got to be somebody. 00:38:25 Speaker 2: And Riley O'Brien deserves to be in the spotlight here because he's been really good. 00:38:30 Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a few guys in Tacoma they could too. I mean, Casey Sadler, he's just there. He's there, and he's he's a fan favorite. And at this point, I know, I think I was downer a few weeks ago about Casey Sadler. I'm like, well, Okay, pump the brakes there, Lyle, pump pump the brakes a little bit on a Casey Sadler reunion this year, but realizing dominic leone is still on the roster, It's like, yeah, Casey Sadler, I'll drive up to Tacoma from Corvallis, pick you up and drop you off at t Mobile Park if that's what it takes my guy this week, Lyle. Johnny Farmelo just activated this week the Mariners first round pick twenty ninth overall this past MLB draft, finally made his professional debut for the Modesto Nuts in the playoffs, and man, this dude hit his first professional home run in Saturday's Cal League Final versus Rancho Cucamonga. He had a fantastic swing on that pitch. It was a middle middle fastball and he took it out to left center. Three hits through his first fifteen professional at bats, and man, he joins a Modesto club. Lyle that I wanted to work in this as a shout out as well. After winning that game on Saturday thirty seven and nine. Since July first, thirty seven and nine. 00:39:47 Speaker 2: Hottest team in Minor League Baseball, I mean, good grief. The Modesto nuts have been absolutely on fire. Oh I gotta tell you what. 00:39:56 Speaker 3: You know what. 00:39:56 Speaker 2: The first question I had that popped into my head after seeing Farmelo hit that home run was right, is Ty gonna let him drive his Mercedes? 00:40:04 Speaker 1: Yeah? Is Ty going to try and show him up? Ty tried in hitten RBI double instead, which works. 00:40:13 Speaker 3: Hey, he'll take it. 00:40:14 Speaker 1: He'll take it, Yeah, he will take it. But next home run that gets hit between the two Ty is hitting, he's hitting. He's not only going to hit it farther out to left center field, but he's also going to look at the dugout, like he said, likes talking to the dugout, and then he's gonna do a pretty lead bat flip. 00:40:34 Speaker 2: It's fun to have all three of those first round picks in Modesta together, and it's gonna be such a good experience for him too. The fact that Colt Emerson type Johnny Farmelo, they're all eighteen years old, they're just getting their first crack at minor league baseball, and what's been basically their first experience. A few weeks in, go play in the Cal League playoffs, go play in high level, high pressure baseball games, you're playing for something. 00:40:57 Speaker 3: I think it's a great experience for him. 00:41:00 Speaker 1: This is the most fun Mariners minor league team in terms of talent on a roster since what the nineteen Travelers probably, Yeah. 00:41:11 Speaker 2: The nineteen Travelers had Jared Cal, Kyle Logan, Evan White, Yeah, I think Logan. Yeah, they had a bunch of those guys. So yeah, Cal was on that team right in twenty nineteen. 00:41:24 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah he was. And I'm also thinking of the twenty twenty one Everett Aqua Socks. 00:41:31 Speaker 2: They were loaded and that that was Julio Noelvie Rattle, lots some others. For me, I'm trying to remember who else was on that twenty twenty one team. 00:41:41 Speaker 3: Those two were the big ones. 00:41:42 Speaker 1: Yeah, those two were the big ones. But that, like I remember Carter Binns was on that team. I think Jack Larson, I don't know, but they were just torching the Northwest League and it was like it wasn't even close. They were beating teams by eight to nine runs every night. And and a lot of those guys have now moved on obviously aren't there. But that team I remember was fine. 00:42:04 Speaker 2: What Oh Everson Hancock was on that team. There's one and Isaiah Campbell was on that team. I'm pretty at least at one point. Yeah, that was a good team too. Yeah, this nuts team. Other than the three first rounders, you've got Aiden Smith, who you've heard the Mariners say they were extremely high on and they think in a more normal draft would have gone closer to the end of the first round. Not to mention, Oh that lazarro Montes guy who just hits tanks. Michael lo Royo is on the team. Yeah, that's a fun team. 00:42:32 Speaker 1: Your boy Luis sweet spell him too. 00:42:35 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a really fun team and all that and all that talent. 00:42:39 Speaker 1: They're at modesto and the guy with the highest ceiling in the organization still hasn't even really played yet. Like, think of how exciting that is, Like what what next year entails for this minor league, this minor league system. It's it's fascinating. Man. I hope Saliston gets healthy and gets to affiliated ball next year and just arts raking. I really hope. 00:43:01 Speaker 2: So I was gonna say, for those who maybe didn't pick up exactly what you were saying, by the guy with the most upside in the entire org you do mean Felman. 00:43:08 Speaker 3: Seliston, right, Yes, yeah, So he's. 00:43:11 Speaker 2: Finally healthy, which is really exciting. He's starting to get going in Arizona here. I really hope he's up in Thedesto next year. If he's up there with all those guys together, what a team. I hope anybody in the California area that's a Marinus fan gets out and goes and sees the nuts next year, because at least to start the year, all the guys we're talking about should be back with Emerson, Ty, Parmelo, etc. 00:43:32 Speaker 1: What do you do with that infield if that's the case. 00:43:35 Speaker 2: Well, we talked to Joe Doyle about this, remember, and he and when we asked about Celiston specifically, he said, he's probably gonna be the priority shortstop, even though Colt Emerson was a first rounder, even though Ty can play shortstop. It's probably gonna be Celestine for the most part, and then you'll mix other guys in where you can. 00:43:53 Speaker 1: So looking at cult right now, it's a small sample size, but Colt seems like a dude who's going to be an Everett bo I may of next year. I would say the way he's hitting, I wouldn't be surprised if he's he's already an ever it. I don't know if he's the one I would say you have to worry about if you have Colt Emerson, who you're gonna play at shortstop every level of the miners he's at, and then Selliston is the same way. I mean, Selliston I think would really need to like turn on the rockets to catch Colt at Emerson at this point. But otherwise I think it really mostly you're right, just kind of shakes out for itself. 00:44:27 Speaker 2: So maybe that's the direction you go long term, is to start next year. You have Cole Jung starting Everett. You have Emerson start in Modesto. Sellaston's probably in Arizona for a bit, get some more work, and then May June or whenever the guys are ready. Most importantly, you get Cole Young up to double A, because again he played a good amount of effort this year. He could probably still use a little bit more time in Hi A. But Cole Yung would go to Arkansas. You move Emerson up to Everett, and then you get Selliston in Modesto. That would probably make sense to keep those guys separate so they can all play short. 00:45:02 Speaker 1: Probably would be. Yeah, god man, what a loaded, loaded, loaded farm system full of young talent. It's a really exciting time to be a fan of the minor leagues, especially if you're a Mariners fan. 00:45:14 Speaker 2: Okay, transitioning to our MLB wrap around here, first topic, Oh, what a surprise TJ. Back to Anaheim we go. It was announced on Friday night that Shoheo Tani cleared out his locker at Angel Stadium and then was later placed on the IL with that oblique strain to end this season. But the big story here is all the hullabaloo going around the social media world the Friday night that he packed up his locker. 00:45:50 Speaker 1: So this probably happens more often than we would think. Now, how often does this happen with a high profile athlete, a high profile Major League Baseball player. I wouldn't be shocked if, say, like a swingman reliever between the majors and Tria, packs up a backup catcher, a guy going on like paternity leave or something like that. Guys who get traded, all of this kind of stuff. This probably happens more often than you think. But the most famous guy in the entire sport, the beat writers of the team that cover him. Let's restart that sentence, because my English sucks. The beat writers that cover the team that has the most famous player in baseball has to find out that he's out for the season by walking into the clubhouse after a game and seeing an empty locker, not a press release, not a statement, an empty locker that he packed up mid game and left. 00:46:55 Speaker 2: And let's be clear here, the Angels did not give an explanation to the reporters. The reporters asked and said, do you have an explanation for this, and they said, well, no, we'll have something tomorrow. And they said, you know, if you don't give us something to report, we are going to report that he cleared out his locker and that's the extent of it, and that is going to cause drama on social media and in the baseball world. And the Angel still said, yeah, we'll provide something tomorrow. And as a result, look at what ensued. Look at what ensued as a result. It was chaos. 00:47:28 Speaker 1: So's he's shelved with an oblique injury. He has his torn ucl that he's gonna get surgery on, and it makes sense. He goes on the aisle and now He's probably gonna go get Tommy John or whatever. He's gonna get as soon as possible, so he's healthy and good to go by end of twenty twenty four on the mound or in twenty twenty five. But where was I going with this? 00:47:51 Speaker 5: Man? 00:47:51 Speaker 3: It's late. 00:47:53 Speaker 2: Well, we were just talking about how again, not just the fact that not just the fact that his life was cleared out and the fact that he decided, and not just the fact that it kind of just happened on a whim is what it seemed like from afar, but just the fact the Angels let this happen. Yeah, show Hay's probably going to go get surgery. This has probably ended his season. And by the way, this was blown out of proportion a little bit because the Angels didn't provide that explanation because show Hay was still on the dugout this weekend and he was still hanging out with his teammates and watching the games. It's not like he has straight up left the organization before the season to end. He's still there. But the fact the Angels let this get out of hand just seems pretty crazy. 00:48:36 Speaker 1: I think the words you were looking for Lyle was ghosted them. 00:48:40 Speaker 2: Oh, he ghosted them, or at least you know what. To us, that's how it seemed when everything first got reported out, is yeah, he ghosted them. He essentially said, yeah, you know what, I've had enough. And we think that that's exactly what's going to happen in free agency anyway, that he's basically going to say, yep, I've had enough of this organization. I'm not coming back. And it basically seemed like he was doing that premature. 00:49:01 Speaker 1: I'm curious. Here's the point I was trying to make. So he had an MRI on Friday for his oblique and the MRI results confirmed he's done for the season. He's not coming back. So why did show Hay? Why was Showhy and his agent able to come to the conclusion he's done for the season, and yet the Angels still needed time to decide or type out a press release. They had the same information show Hey did, And yet they're the ones that said, oh, I don't know. A Major League Baseball organization to one of their own players, which they coordinate MRIs and medical information for, said I don't know. 00:49:42 Speaker 2: I'll tell you why. Because they are the second words franchise in Major League baseball. I cannot stress it enough. We cannot stress it enough. 00:49:51 Speaker 1: And this isn't even the only medical mishap they've had this week. Lot, would you like to take the second one away? 00:49:57 Speaker 2: I would because stop me if you've heard this before Marine Layer pod listeners, if we start talking about the Angels, we can't go through an Angel segment without going through another edition of but bum What in the world is going on in the life of Anthony Rendon? Because guess what, another week goes by and we've got another chapter to this ridiculous novel. So Anthony Rendon this past week finally decided that he wanted to speak to reporters and he said, yeah, it was revealed I actually have a fractured tibia. In fact, I've known this for a few weeks, and that's why I have him been playing and progressing. I don't know why the Angels didn't tweet that out. You would have to ask them. But I don't know why the Angels didn't tweet out that I was actually injured with a fracture in my leg, because they've known just like I have. And I'm sitting here thinking to myself, Huh, did the Angels really not announ did they gatekeep this? And then I see a tweet a few minutes later from some Angels fan that says, you know, I'm not a doctor, but I'm pretty sure you can't do this on a fractured tibia. 00:51:12 Speaker 3: And what was it? 00:51:13 Speaker 2: It was a video I had completely forgotten about from a couple of weeks ago of Anthony Rendon doing running in the outfield. 00:51:23 Speaker 1: So I don't even know what's more incompetent at this point is did Anthony Rendon make up an injury or did the Angels not know that he had a fracture tibia because Phil Nevin never said what his injury is. It's the usually the mayor the manager's job to say, hey, this dude broke this or toward this, he's done for the season, or the general manager does it. And yet we have to hear from Anthony Rendon, the man who two weeks ago went to the media and brandished one of the greatest clubhouse quotes of all time saying, no obla ingles. Today that man volunteered information that he had fractured his tibia and the Angels did not. 00:52:15 Speaker 2: Arm had a great tweet about this. Arm Layton, who friend of the pod we've had him on. He hosts the Just Baseball Show Our Mothership podcast. He quote tweeted this whole saga about how Rendon said he had a fractured tibia and said, I don't know why the Angels didn't announce it. Arm quote tweeted it and said, how would he know if they didn't announce it? 00:52:33 Speaker 3: He doesn't speak English. 00:52:41 Speaker 1: Do we think we're getting anything else before the season ends? I mean, this is too good. I almost don't want this Angels season to end. 00:52:48 Speaker 2: What can Anthony Rendon do possibly between now and the last day of the season to make this even better? I don't know. I don't think this could possibly go any further. But every time I think that, he takes it essentially as a personal challenge to one up what everybody's expecting. So I hope you've got something in your back pocket, Anthony Rendon, because I truly, truly cannot get enough of it. 00:53:12 Speaker 1: Let's get to our second subject here in our MLB wrap around, what's set up to the northeast. Heim Bloom has been fired from the Red Sox. They are now looking for other candidates. He doesn't even finish his fourth season in charge of the Boston Red Sox. 00:53:31 Speaker 2: Yeah, letting the GM go and doing it before the off season started too, which was an interesting time to let him go, although maybe they wanted to try to find a candidate with enough time to get off season moves going and get prepared and be ready to make acquisitions once the off season begins. Look, the Red Sox have finished in last place in the AL East back to back years. Now, it's been a juggernaut AL East, but they are set up to finish in last place back to back years. He will also be forever known as the GM who traded away Mookie Bets. When you think of him, blumin Boston, that is gonna be the first image that pops into your head. He traded away Mookie. But did he deserve to get fired? This is where I've kind of gone back and forth about this. 00:54:16 Speaker 1: Did he deserve to get fired based on the results of being the general manager of the Boston Red Sox. Yes, but I think I think he was He was set up to fill from the beginning, because yes, he traded Mookie Bets. But any GM with half a brain cell doesn't walk into an organization and say, yup, I'm gonna trade our future Hall of Fame right fielder for peanuts for pennies on the dollar and rebuild that way. No, you don't do that. It like imagine this, Lyle, Imagine Jerry Depoto and the Mariners missed the playoffs this season, missed the playoffs next season, Jerry gets fired, Someone walks in here and trades Julio for Alec for do go or is equivalent? Is he set up for success? 00:55:05 Speaker 2: No, of course not. And we should be clear that was an ownership decision. Heim Bloom was the one that actually had pen to paper on the deal, but that was an order given by John Henry to try and shed payroll. The Red Sox owner said, we've got a ton of big contracts on the books. We can't afford anymore. We've gotta let move, which is a lie. Yeah, of course it's a lie. It's a lie from every owner. Every owner could spend all the money they want to, they choose not to, especially John Henry, by the way. 00:55:34 Speaker 1: It's especially a lie in Boston that like, if we're talking about the juggernaut money making markets of baseball, that is one of them saying you cannot afford to keep Mookie Bets is just a fucking lie. It's it's an absolute lie. And we think about when I mentioned set up for failure. Wasn't just the Mookie trade? When he joined the Red Sox did the highest payroll in baseball that they wanted him to shed, and they also had the thirtieth rated farm system. And then they're like, okay, well, no pressure, we also expect you to win while doing all this. Well that's kind of hard, isn't it. And you know Red Sox fans aren't going to just sit through a rebuild, and the ownership knows it, so they just need a scapegoat. Was Heim Bloom a perfect GM? No? We both know some Red Sox fans who didn't think he was very good at his job. And if you look at the major league product on the field and year number four, it is lacklustering. By year number four of a GM, especially one that comes in and is rebuilding, you should have some fruits of your labor out there on the field, and he has Tristan Kassas and like getting else. 00:56:46 Speaker 2: Here's why I leaned toward I didn't think Bloom should have been fired because he wasn't just asked to shed payroll. The Red Sox essentially wanted him to turn their ball club into a mid market team, So that is massively shedding payroll, which is why they traded Mookie. So he's already given a pretty unfair task from the beginning. And also the Red Sox farm has massively turned around in that time. Yes, you're right in terms of guys on the big league roster right now, you're looking at Tristan Cassas. 00:57:17 Speaker 3: But I'm looking at the. 00:57:17 Speaker 2: Fact he drafted Marcella Meyer. I'm looking at the fact that their farm system is massively replenished. I mean, if a bunch of these Red Sox farm hands in two years get up and thrive, those will behind Blooms guys. If Marcella Meyer turns into a perennial All Star, which he might, that's Bloom's guy, and then the new GM is gonna get credit for it. Now, you can't keep a GM around forever and just say, oh, we're waiting for his prospects. We're waiting for his prospects. But I think it was a little bit of a short leash that Bloom had in an unfair situation where like you said, he was expected to win and replenish the farm all at once, which is pretty hard to do. 00:57:59 Speaker 3: Not everybody's the. 00:58:01 Speaker 1: He had a mid He had a big market responsibility, big market expectations, big market like a big market what's the hot seat lever or something like that. But they wanted a mid market plan of this. I mean, these things don't mix right. So that's that's like where this conflict comes up. I thought the strangest thing about this whole story is that they let him operate at the trade deadline. Why. I mean, he thinks that he's trying to set the rod Sex up for future success, both now and in the future. He is thinking that he's gonna be with this organization for another couple of seasons to see all this go through, and then all of a sudden, the ownership a little a month after the trade deadline, just like, no, we're good. 00:58:51 Speaker 2: See it doesn't make much stunts at all. They essentially wanted heim Bloom to turn the team into the Rays. Well news flat, there's only one team that's like the Rays that operates on such a low payroll with that much success. 00:59:05 Speaker 3: And we should throw in there too. 00:59:06 Speaker 2: By the way, the Red Sox made the Alcs in twenty twenty one. They lost in six, but they were competitive in the series and that was a good team. It's not like him Blooms had no success with this Red Sox franchise. It's just maybe not to the level of winning World Series after World Series that is kind of expected there in Boston. 00:59:27 Speaker 3: I would have given him more time. I really would have. 00:59:29 Speaker 2: I thought he had the farm in the right direction. I had thought he had core players locked down, like Devers, for example. He gave Devers that extension. He didn't have to do that. They could have let Devers walk in free agency. He locked Evers down. 00:59:43 Speaker 3: I would have given I wouldn't given one more time. 00:59:46 Speaker 1: They did sign the correct infielder. He did make that correct decision. Oh remember how just. 00:59:53 Speaker 2: In shambles Red Sox fans were when they let Bogarts go. No, they picked the right guy. Not only is Devers younger, he is significantly better. 01:00:01 Speaker 1: Yeah. What was that stat the other day? There was this like measure on contracts of which contract is most likely to fail over the next decade from free agents of this class? And I think Xander was number one most likely to fail, which would not shock me at all. 01:00:19 Speaker 2: If you are an og listener of this podcast, have you've been listening all the way since the start? You know, we highlighted this way back when in free agency, that we talked about with Xander back in November that in his walk here he had a babbit that was through the roof. A ton of his peripherals were bad, he didn't play good defense, and he thrived in a hitter's park and also playing in the Al East. And now look what's happened. 01:00:47 Speaker 1: Oops, and the Padres now have him for another decade grad San Diego. 01:00:55 Speaker 2: Hey, the Mariner should have signed him. That would have just changed the entire outlook of the franchise for the next decade. 01:01:00 Speaker 1: Wild the Mariners would have been in the playoffs by now if they just would assigned him, just purely based on the fact the payroll would have gone up. It's just that easy. 01:01:08 Speaker 3: It's that easy man, all right. 01:01:11 Speaker 2: Last storyline here, another story out of the GM world, But it's a hiring, not a firing. The Mets make a splash and they hired David Stearns as the new GM coming over from the Milwaukee Brewers, a guy that a lot of people have tabbed as being one of these young and up and coming gms that feels like he could be on the Andrew Friedman route. 01:01:33 Speaker 1: That's what I was about to mention. This is the one of, probably one of the probably the biggest executive move since Freedman went to the Dodgers. And look what's happened since one of the brain trusts of the Rays went to an organization who fully believed in his talents and gave him free reign to operate. Look at the fucking machine that Andrew Freeman has built in LA. That's what Steve Cohen wants. Steve Cohen is already tried building his way with some guys that he thought could get the job done. He's like, you know what, Billy Appler not good enough. We need someone who not only is going to sign quality major league talent, but is also going to develop guys and to scout guy and is going to properly evaluate guys to trade for that are controllable, that are disregarded by other teams that they think that they can make something successful. I think I would be so excited if I was a Mets fan, because this what Steve Cohen wants is what the Dodgers have, and I think David Stearns could do it like he has unlimited resources. 01:02:45 Speaker 2: Now, the Brewers were consistently a postseason contender with Stearns and under a low payroll. This is what I always talked about with Billy Bean when he had his rumors swirling out there that he might think about taking the Mets GM job a couple of years ago. Is I always said, I would be really interested to see a GM like Billy Bean combined with a team that is willing to spend endlessly, and now probably even more so than where Billy Bean's at, because I feel like Billy isn't exactly on the same level that he once was. I feel like a lot of his draft picks, a lot of his development have gone down in the last few years. Were David Stearns, you combine him and his blueprint with Steve Cohen and Steve Cohen's willingness to spend all the money in the world, this is what could turn into a juggernaut out in Queens because what Steve Cohen wants to do, like you said, is just spend. He's okay spending on anybody, but if he is somebody as his right hand man, that says, Okay, Steve, spend all the money you want, but here are the players to rightfully spend it on, and here's why and outline it. 01:03:54 Speaker 3: That's what could change the mets here. 01:03:57 Speaker 1: I think this twenty twenty three Dodgers team is like the prime example of why Steve Cohen needs a David Stearns. We highlighted it with Blake on our Friday episode last week of how decimated the Dodgers' rotation is, how their they're one their star shortstop that they were expecting to have a breakout season, Gavin lux this season out for the year, and it hasn't mattered at all. The Dodgers are still gonna win one hundred games and they're going to be a favorite to win the World Series this year. And Steve Cohen looks at that and says, Okay, we are in market one. I have the deepest pockets in baseball. We have the ability to draft, develop, sign, trade, everything that a team could ever want. Why can't we do that? Why can't we be in a situation where everything goes wrong and we're still elite? Something more importantly that Steve Cohen finally thinks he can stick it to the Yankees. I mean, think about that. There could be a new king in town. The Yankees have all the rings, they they have all the banners, they have Monument Park. So Steve Cohen's like, well, they did it their way, why can't I do it my way now? Why can't I get a guy who's thirty eight years old in here to run my franchise for the next two decades and put some World Series banners up? 01:05:19 Speaker 3: And that's what he's doing. I'll tell you what. 01:05:22 Speaker 2: I'll tell you the best word to describe the Bronx right now, it feels stale to me. It's same front office group. Aaron Boone's been there a while now. It feels like whatever product they're running out there year by year feels like they're just trying to throw something against the wall. They're trying to throw the same thing against the wall every single year, because it feels like they roll out a similar roster every year. Just doesn't do anything. The Mets, You're absolutely right, the Mets could be the talk of the town on the Diamond in New York moving forward, especially with David Stearn's there and what he's said to implement, and we should add by the way, just as a little just as a little note, I don't think we said give him the exact title. David Stearns is going to be the President of Baseball Operation. So he was hired by the Mets. He was previously the GM of the Brewers. He is getting a promotion in Queens. He's going to be the president of Baseball Ops. Billy Eppler is still going to be the GM, but Stearns is running the show. 01:06:17 Speaker 1: No, he actually was also the president of Baseball Ops in Milwaukee. He stepped down. He was an advisor this year, right. Remember, So we had Jolly Olivan the three weeks ago now ish and we talked about this. He said that it was the worst kept secret in Queens that this was going to happen. Stearns is was born and raised in Manhattan. One of his first internships ever was with the Mets. Here's what he did lie on his first internship with the Mets, because he was down there with the Brooklyn Cyclones. He pulled tarp he fixed seats, he painted fences, he powerwashed bathrooms, YadA, YadA, YadA, all that while he was at Harvard looking to get his foot in the door at in Major League Baseball, and now it has eventually come full circle and he's going to get to take one of his hometown teams and do his thing with it. 01:07:08 Speaker 2: Sorry, let me do that one more time. I didn't word that right. He did start as the GM with the Brewers. In twenty nineteen, he was promoted to the President of Baseball Ops. Now he's being hired by the Mets to be their President of Baseball Ops. Billy Applo will still be the Mets GM, but it's Stearn's running the show. 01:07:26 Speaker 1: This is going to be exciting to watch. And we think about how the Mets structured this season. Now they came in as World Series contenders, an old roster, a veteran Leyden roster, and a lot of those guys are gone. Now it's a lot more of a young core. I mean, we saw like guys like Ronnie Mauricio and when the Mariners were there at the beginning of this month, there at like some of this young talent there and some of the young talent that's replenished the farm system in New York. And now you're going to bring in David Stearns, really with mouldable Clay to work this Mets roster, and I think it's going to be very exciting. And I think in a couple of years, this Mets roster is gonna be good. It is going to be good, it's going to be young, it's gonna be athletic, and I think it has a really good chance to be the closest thing to the Dodgers outside of LA. 01:08:13 Speaker 2: It's not just Ronnie Mauricio too. You're talking about Francisco Alvarez, who in a couple of years has a chance to be a top three catcher in baseball. You got Brett Bady, who's still not had all that much experience and could still pop at any time. And then you're talking about the mid level guys, not mid level and talent, but just an age with lindoor code I sanga. If you extend peed Alonzo Alonzo. The pieces are there, and the farm's getting better with every passing day. Yeah, the Mets are going in the right direction here. 01:08:44 Speaker 1: If you're curious, why, just one blank reason why David Stearns accepted this job outside of the factories from New York, outside of the media market, YadA, YadA, YadA. The Milwaukee Brewers during his time, never ranked higher than seventeenth in payroll, never. Never, And then he's going now going to an organization that had a tax created to stop the owner from spending more money. 01:09:11 Speaker 3: Man, it's going to be exciting. 01:09:12 Speaker 1: Okay, let's move on. I've been looking forward to this for quite a while. Let's get to our Russell Wilson umpire of the week, Lyle, I think we have some history today with this. 01:09:26 Speaker 2: One, Angel Hernandez. Who else but Angel Hernandez, step forward because you are this week's winner, far and away. This past week, he was umping a nationals Pirates game back on Thursday. Are you ready for these numbers? Eighty eight percent is the expected league average on called strike accuracy. Angel Hernandez ranked at sixty five percent for the game. That is twenty three percent below league average. I don't even know how that's possible, but Angel Hernandez did it himself. Not to mention his relative accuracy was nearly nine percent below expected. I don't know how that's possible, but he takes it as a personal challenge to do so. 01:10:19 Speaker 1: So. Not only was it a personal challenge to suck in this game. For Angel Hernandez, the single game accuracy of this game is the lowest of any MLB umpire in the last five seasons. Five. I think we gotta put Angel Hernandez on the Russell Wilson Umpire of the Week Mount Rushmore right now, he's got a permanent spot. We're gonna also give him a parking spot at the monument so he can go look at himself up on that monument and realize, wow, I am one of the four best in terms of honoring these on our Russell Wilson Umpire of the Week. Just got to give it up to him. 01:11:05 Speaker 2: He was always gonna be there one day. The only reason he wasn't there immediately is because he essentially was either relegated or on a hiatus the first three fourth of the season and not umping big league games. And now that he's back, Oh, he's established his presence with some fucking authority, dude, because he is back and better than ever stamped right on the Russell Wilson up of the Week Mount Rushmore. And for good, by the way, are we given CB a spot on there? Does he still have more proving to do? 01:11:34 Speaker 1: Oh? He can earn a spot on there. I think has earned a spot. But the problem is I don't know, like his CB earned like a permanent spot. M. 01:11:46 Speaker 2: He's always bad, but he's never had a game like this that we at least the one that we've highlighted this year. It's never been like this. And considering this is the worst ump game in five years, yeah, it hasn't quite gotten to this level for Cebe Buckner. 01:12:00 Speaker 1: I can't believe this dude sees this and then complains about being left off of postseason umpiring cruise, Like, yeah, dude, we now have evidence, public evidence. The league has always had private evidence, but now it's public. 01:12:21 Speaker 3: Just unbelievable. 01:12:23 Speaker 2: The fact that you know, we talked, you know how there's those pictures in the NFL that say, I can't believe these dudes play in the same league, and it's a picture of DK Metcalf and then Rodrigo Blancanship. You've seen those two like standing next to each other, and it gets put on Twitter. I can't believe we're in a world where Angel Hernandez and Pat Hoburg I'm in the same league because Pat Hoberg is maybe the best umpire in the game right now. He is pinpoint good. And then you have Angel Hernandez. 01:12:51 Speaker 1: You couldn't tell me there are Triple A umpires worse than Angel Hernandez. 01:12:56 Speaker 2: Oh, they're absolutely And I go as far to say half the Triple A umpires are better than Angel Hernandez. 01:13:05 Speaker 1: And yet one has a job said. 01:13:09 Speaker 2: Incredible stuff. Okay, let's get to speak your mind. 01:13:14 Speaker 1: Speak your mind, Spock. That would be unwise. 01:13:21 Speaker 3: What is necessary is never unwise. 01:13:25 Speaker 2: While I've been delayed on my homework assignment, they do say better late than never. And a couple weeks later, now that I've finally had some free time TJ, I'm caught up on Ahsoka, so we can finally do this recap here the Flora's Peace. 01:13:38 Speaker 1: So we let's make sure we don't spoil it for anyone. So if you have not, if you want to watch the Ahsoka Show on Disney Plus and you don't want it to get spoiled, this is your spoiler warning three two one. Okay, cool, Now, if you're still here, don't blame us. I love it. What'd you think of episode four? I thought that one was that like a masterpiece. I thought it was was special. 01:14:05 Speaker 2: You did give me a warning before watching episode four that you thought it was really good, so I was expecting something pretty good. 01:14:10 Speaker 3: In the first half of that I thought, yeah, it's a good episode. I'm enjoying it. 01:14:15 Speaker 2: And then the second half of episode four is when it really gets good. I certainly didn't expect Sabine to just give up the map and like go away to find Thron. I'll tell you that much. 01:14:28 Speaker 1: So well, it was just like we could always tell that, like she had the soft spot for Ezra, so notice, like I forget the droid's name, But at the beginning of the episode, he's like, First of all, he's like, first, make sure you two don't get separated. They obviously didn't listen to that. Second of all, Ahsoka is that they were training outside and she gets back on the ship and she's like, are you like, are you ready to make a tough decision if you have to? And notice how like Sabine didn't answer the question, and then later on in the episode they just pay it off. I thought it. It was so fascinating in that episode four, all of the backstory between Balen Skull and Ahsoka's they're fighting and all these little like background jabs at Anakin and all these things while they're fighting, and Ahsoka for the first time in live action, we've seen her get totally overmatched in a fight and then all of a sudden, look who shows up. 01:15:26 Speaker 2: I think that's what I enjoyed more than Episode four was Episode five and seeing her in live action with Anakin, and then the fact she calls Anakin out too is she's like, oh, you turned out to be way worse of a dude than anybody expected. And then that's what triggers Anakin, at least in Ahsoka's dream or whatever world metaverse they were in at that point, to turn Anakin into Darth Vader. And you start seeing like panaway shots for a second it's Anakin, and then it's Vader, and then it's Anakin again. Then a lightsabers read, Oh that's that's the episode I enjoyed the most. Not that, not just them going through more training and having these old flashback memories from the Bone Wars, but Ahsoka actually seeing Anakin turned to Vader. 01:16:10 Speaker 1: The visuals of this live action series, and I'd say and or two is just phenomenal. I love the the visual effects they that Disney and Dave Filoni the director, and and all the people who go into deciding these things have brought out like I'm I'm thinking of episode three or sorry, episode four where they bring the ring out of the clouds and you see it getting ready to jump and then all that and then we see the Purgles as well, like the space whales, the just the coolest thing ever. Yeah, and this is also my reminder to you again to watch the cartoons, to watch the cartoons, to see the see the Purgles in a little bit, a little bit more action there, like. 01:16:57 Speaker 2: I know the the jet, like the general storylines of rebels, Like did I know who Ezras when they were when they were talking about him? 01:17:06 Speaker 3: Yes? 01:17:06 Speaker 2: Do I obviously know the Sabine was, Yes, Soka and I've watched some of the Clone Wars and then from Mandalorian two she's in it, so not like I know nothing about her. 01:17:16 Speaker 1: So now there's this theory. So you remember in Mando season three, episode one, when they're they're jumping in in hyperspace and they see the pergols. M hmm, right you remember that? 01:17:28 Speaker 3: Yeah, now now that you mention it, Yeah. 01:17:31 Speaker 1: So there's this theory. I don't think it's actually true, but I think it's fascinating that those are the same pergols carrying Ahsoka to the next galaxy to go see Throng. 01:17:42 Speaker 3: That is interesting. 01:17:43 Speaker 2: M hm. 01:17:44 Speaker 3: When do you think we see Thrown by the Way next episode? 01:17:48 Speaker 1: Yeah, yep, so that episode will have been out by the time this episode drops, which you and I will, I'm sure watch as soon as it comes out. If if it's not this episode, it it's gonna be. They need at least two episodes of screen time of him in it, at least one with him flashing, and then one hole because the second season still needs to get set up. We still need to understand what's on the precipice for season two. I'm just wanted that there's only three episodes left, so they're gonna have a lot to pack in. There's still a lot to see. I don't know what other cameos we're gonna get. I don't know what other characters they're gonna bring in, but I think it's gonna be fascinating. I've been a big fan of the show. I love seeing all the Rebels characters in live action, and I think the attention to detail is fantastic, and I've I've been blown away for the most part, even though, like you said, at the beginning. I think it might have started a little slow. The action was good, but the story really wasn't there. And then the story picks up and then you're like, yeah, yep, I like this. I like this a lot. 01:18:54 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's good. I guess said. 01:18:56 Speaker 2: I know Sabine was conflicted, but quite the decision to aventually let another war start so she could go find one friend. It's quite the decision. 01:19:05 Speaker 1: But that's like, that's on brand for her character, so it's not like. 01:19:11 Speaker 3: It is. 01:19:11 Speaker 2: I'm just saying that's quite the decision to essentially let a war ensue. But again, we'll see how it all plays out. You think we see Mando at some point in the show, I wouldn't be shocked. Hmmm. 01:19:26 Speaker 1: So here's my thing about this, because I think the end goal for all of these Star Wars series is they're going to come together and make a movie about it, and Thron is going to be the bad guy. Oh so I would say yes eventually, maybe not in this season, but I think, yeah, I think, yeah, I've seen that theory. Doesn't that sound fun? 01:19:46 Speaker 2: That would be really fun if you combine Mando and Boba Fet and Ahsoka all that stuff and make it into a movie. 01:19:54 Speaker 3: That'd be great. 01:19:55 Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be pretty good. This is gonna be off subject, but I man, I just really I can't await for the next season of and Or to come out because I because I know this Ahsoka season is gonna be done before we know it. And you and I both really really liked the and Or series and it's it's gonna be good. 01:20:11 Speaker 3: Yeah. 01:20:12 Speaker 2: I guess the only other thing I had on speak your mind for this week is I thank goodness the Seahawks gotta win. I would not have been happy if they'd started zero and two, and I did not think they were gonna go into Detroit and win, but they found a way. 01:20:23 Speaker 1: Wasn't it interesting that Pete said that like he didn't feel like they were like mentally ready for week one and that they weren't like motivated enough or something like that to full of themselves, and then Bobby Wagner made sure Bobby Wagner made sure of like week two that they were like good to go. And then despite you know, some still some gripes with the defense pass rush isn't good enough. I I was kind of worried when we saw the second half of Gino week one. I like I was. They had twelve yards in the second half, but all of a sudden, Gino comes out on the road and dices up what many think is a division winning playoff team on the other side. So like yep, and they had a ten point second half lead, probably should have won outside of overtime, but regardless, they give the ball to Geno and ot and they said, all right, we paid you money, go win us the game. It's exactly what he did. 01:21:17 Speaker 2: And they've got the Panthers this upcoming week, so there's no reason they shouldn't be two and one. 01:21:22 Speaker 1: We did. We did say that last year. 01:21:24 Speaker 3: Too, Yeah we did, and we said it about the Rams. 01:21:27 Speaker 2: But I think they should beat a rookie quarterback making his third career start. 01:21:31 Speaker 3: I think that's I think they. 01:21:33 Speaker 2: Should That's probably fair. I gotta say Tyler lockett Man. Everybody calls him underrated, and he is. I think he's the most underrated player in the entire game. But that almost feels like a disservice this guy is. This guy's a star, and he has been a consistent star for years, and people don't ever give him the recognition he deserves. I don't think I'll ever get it, but he deserves it. 01:21:54 Speaker 1: He's like borderline elite. There's there's a The only knock you could ever have on Kyler Locket is that he's not tall enough. 01:22:01 Speaker 3: That's it. 01:22:02 Speaker 1: Like he does everything else, it's it's so fascinating to see as a receiver. I'm so happy that he's that cool, constant presence in that wide receiver room. I love DK, But that dude, you never know week to week what he's gonna do. He could just totally come out and lie about knocking some dude on his ass and getting a personal foul. You never know. 01:22:26 Speaker 2: They're They're Yin and yang in that way. And it's cool because those guys are such good friends. DK and Tyler and they fit each other well. DK's got all the fire and all the energy, and then Tyler, you know, you never know if he was angry or not. He just keeps it cool, calm and collected. Kind of like you said, but yeah, let's hold let's hope this is the start of something a lot better. Also, I will say last thing, while he did get burned on the Flea Flicker, I liked what I saw out of Game one out of Devin Wetherspoon, I will say. 01:22:52 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I did too. I'm I'm looking forward to him finally getting some practice time. Like, remember he didn't even play in the preseason, so that his first game reps. So keep the expectations, mellow. I think he's gonna turn out. Okay, I'm talking to myself to throw the Jeff Okuda jokes out for now, especially now that they've already played the Lions, Like, get the Jeff Okuda jokes out of there. I do have one more thing. I did not miss getting fucked over in college fantasy. What a fucking joke. I did not miss it. Like fantasy sports in general, yes, but talk about an all time bad beat this weekend in college football fantasy only put up two hundred and seventy points this week lyle and lost at last game on Saturday night, lost on a fourth quarter touchdown. 01:23:43 Speaker 3: Not great. 01:23:44 Speaker 2: I'm finally having my first bad year college fantasy ever. And I've had a stretch of just good year after good year after goodyear, even though I've never won. And I don't know if I didn't draft well, our guys are just off to the slow start or what. But yeah, I'm owing three I'm off to a bad start. 01:23:57 Speaker 1: And that's tough for you because the league we play in is two quarterback and it's it's best ball, So you utilize your entire roster and it picks the two best players points wise from each position and starts them for you at the end of the week. So not only like your whole roster sucks. 01:24:19 Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I don't even feel like it sucks. Like I look at it up and down. It's like, well, I like the quarterbacks I have. I like the receivers that I have. I don't know, like it hasn't been off to a good start. I mean, obviously, I'm gonna try to pick some guys up, which is something you do every week in college fantasy. 01:24:32 Speaker 3: But I don't know. I hope it turns around. 01:24:35 Speaker 1: At least you're like the second highest scoring team in the league and you're one and two. 01:24:40 Speaker 2: Oh. 01:24:41 Speaker 1: You hate to see like losing money on bad bets. I mean, my bet, like, I'm doing everything right, I'm scoring all the points I need to, and I'm still gonna lose money because well, I just so happen to face everyone the only person in the league scoring more than me that week. 01:24:58 Speaker 3: Welcome to fantasy football dog. That's all I can say. 01:25:02 Speaker 2: All right, I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. 01:25:07 Speaker 3: You guys know the drill. 01:25:08 Speaker 2: If you want to listen to the full form podcast, you can do so on Apple, Spotify, Google and Amazon. If you're listening on our audio side, make sure to follow us, download our episodes and leave us that five star review. The reviews and the downloads they really do help us out, So take the extra couple seconds and do that. Then go watch us on YouTube, like, comment, subscribe, turn the notification bells on when you're watching on YouTube, and then head over to social media. Always active on there every day on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube shorts. Follow those channels at Marine Layer Pod. That's TJ. 01:25:41 Speaker 3: I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. Talk to you soon,