Episode 58: Breaking Down The Final 10 Days Of The Mariners Season

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number fifty eight of the Marine Layer Podcast. Today we're getting you ready for the final ten game stretch of the season for the Mariners. We're talking MS, Rangers, Astros, Blue Jay's. We're going to look at the pitching matchups, trends, stats, injuries, all that kind of stuff. The most important part of the season is finally here for the Mariners, and we're going to get you ready for it. It's a ten game playoff series starting today. I'm looking forward to it. 00:00:27 Speaker 2: It's gonna be a fun time and what could you do to make it even that much more fun? If you want to get some drinks in and find a good spot to watch, well, you can head over to Pagatcha's Pub eighty five. This show is brought to you by Pigatcha's Pub eighty five in Kirkland. It's on eighty fifth Street east of four h five with some great parking, the best pizza in town, awesome food and drinks, a great environment to hang out with a bunch of people there. They've got happy hour deals by the way, so if you want to go watch the Mariner games, get there a little bit early. You can get in on those Happy Hour specials, which are Monday through Friday two to six pm. That's three dollars, Domestic Fears four dollars, Manny's Blue Moons, four dollars, Mac and Jack's four dollars, Wells four dollar house wines. There's not going to be many better spots in the area to go watch these Mariners games over the final ten day stretch than at Pub eighty five, so check out the Gotcha's Pub eighty five in Kirkland. 00:01:16 Speaker 3: And as always, if. 00:01:17 Speaker 2: You guys want to follow us, you can do so on the audio platforms Apple, Spotify, Google and Amazon. Follow the show, download our episodes, leave us the five star review, the reviews, and the downloads. Help us out a ton. We've got a video side to the podcast too, that's over on YouTube. Hit subscribe, like comment, turn our notification bells on, and make sure to check us out on social media. We're always active Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube shorts. Follow us there at Marine Layer Pod. 00:01:45 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling and we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Lie Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording here on Thursday, September twenty first lyle are you ready no. 00:02:13 Speaker 2: Mentally, no, these are gonna be the most stressful games I've ever watched over a short period of time. 00:02:19 Speaker 1: We spent the entire month of September expecting this ten game stretch to be tough, but I don't think either of us expected this to literally be the start of the playoffs. The Mariners, quite literally, are entering a ten game series to get into the actual playoff field. If they tie or lose this ten game series to finish the season, they're done. Quite literally. 00:02:43 Speaker 2: What do you think is the mark to get in? We were talking about this a little bit pre recording. 00:02:48 Speaker 1: The mark to absolutely slam don't get in is seven and three. 00:02:53 Speaker 2: I would agree with that, and you probably need if you win both series against the Rangers, that probably does it. 00:02:59 Speaker 3: Right. 00:02:59 Speaker 2: If you get three or four and then two of three, I guess it's the other way around. They'll get two to three in the first weekend and three or four of the final weekend. 00:03:06 Speaker 1: I would say, as long as you don't get swept by the Astros. As long as if you get swept by the Astros, then that leaves the door open, because that's you losing three games in the standings and who knows what the Rangers are going to do with the Angels gonna be interesting, though, man it is. This is one of the craziest scenarios that Major League Baseball could have ever cooked up. We've talked about the NBA being rigged on this podcast. People have floated around conspiracies about the NFL script for years and years and years now. But if Rob Manfred went to Hollywood, put up a script, went to pick your producer Steven Spielberg, and said, hey, I want you to direct the twenty twenty three season, I think this is what he would spit out. 00:03:51 Speaker 2: Well, I think he went to Spielberg. He didn't go to Ryan Johnson, who directed episode eight of Star Wars, because that plot would not have been good. Spielberg's out here cooking up a masterpiece with the final ten games of the season. 00:04:04 Speaker 1: So as of today, the Blue Jays lost to Garrett Cole and the Yankees tonight. Now, if you look at the standings in chronological American League order, both the Blue Jays and the Astros are tied, and there are a half game ahead of the Mariners and the Rangers, who are tied. I mean, this is storybook stuff. Credit to Sarah Lanks for digging this up yesterday. This is the first time, just looking at the American League West, that three teams in the same division were all within half a game or fewer of first place, all having ten games or fewer left to play since divisions began in nineteen sixty nine, Lyle, how does it feel that your stress is part of history? 00:04:48 Speaker 3: Again? Not good? 00:04:49 Speaker 2: I know there's gonna be There's gonna be a lot of yelling one way or another the final ten days just because either I'm gonna be fired up or I'm gonna be livid. 00:04:58 Speaker 1: How relaxed must be to be a fan of one of the other twenty six franchises in baseball who's looking forward to the postseason, that gets to watch this race without a horse in it. That sounds great to me. 00:05:12 Speaker 3: Yeah, it does. 00:05:13 Speaker 2: Although I'd rather be in this position than be a team that's not gonna make the playoffs aka where the Mariners were for twenty years of our lives, twenty one years. 00:05:20 Speaker 3: I'm sorry. 00:05:22 Speaker 2: So it's fun to be in it in perspective, but actually having to go through the day to day, man, it's gonna be stressful because they're not gonna win all these games, and we can sit here right now and say whenever they do eventually lose a game in this stretch, you know we're gonna be texting back and forth and basically say season over. 00:05:40 Speaker 4: Now. 00:05:40 Speaker 2: We're not gonna say this on the podcast unless it's absolutely true if they lost like five in a row, But anytime they give up a lead or give up a game in this stretch, we're gonna lose our minds over text. 00:05:51 Speaker 1: There's a lot of scenarios that can play out. I don't know if we have quite all the scenarios laid out here on this podcast. I think we'll have a better sense the time we record next Wednesday's episode on really what the Mariners need to do to get into playoffs, the playoffs and what else happens. What we can nearly guarantee you today is probably six wins with both the Ranger series being wins, or a seven and three mark over these next ten games get you in the playoffs. No questions ask now Lyle, what's the mark they need to hit to win the division? 00:06:26 Speaker 2: I feel like it's close to seven and three, honestly, because we say it's seven and three to get in. But everything is so neck and neck, it could be right around that same ballpark. Where again, if you get three or four from the Rangers in the last weekend, two of three from the Rangers this weekend, and two of three from the Astros during the week that's seven and three right there. 00:06:45 Speaker 3: That might do it. 00:06:46 Speaker 2: Now, it might cut it close, but I think seven to three has got a chance to be the mark. If you're absolutely banking on the safe side, probably eight and two. 00:06:54 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd say eight and two. You do have the tiebreaker over the Astros right now. You don't have the tiebreaker over the Ranger. Which is also what makes me just a tiny bit nervous, Which means the Mariners, if the Mariners are going to take the season series from the Rangers, they need to What So the Rangers are five and one against the Mariners right now with seven to play, you would need to win. You need to go five and yeah, you'd have to go. 00:07:19 Speaker 4: No. 00:07:19 Speaker 1: Five and two would even do it. You need to go six and one against the Rangers to grab that tiebreaker back. So that's what makes this intriguing. You can gain the ground on the Rangers, but I would say worst case scenario is you go four and three against the Rangers, Rangers sweep the Angels, and all of a sudden, the Rangers get those three wins and it doesn't matter that you made up ground on the Rangers because they're still gonna hold the tiebreaker over you and have an extra game lead in the division. It's just fascinating stuff. Lyle, let's get into this breakdown. We've broken this up into we're gonna go team by team essentially in this We're gonna mix in Mariners stuff with this, but we wanted to talk Rangers primarily since that's seven of these ten games. Will also touch on the Astros and the Blue Jays and any other notes that go along with this. 00:08:09 Speaker 2: I just wanted to give one programming note before we dive into this. So we thought it was important to do this episode for Friday, because again, this is the start of a stretch that's that's as big as one has ever been for the Mariners and a lot of our lifetimes. So we figured this episode to do is important as a result of that. As our schedule sits right now, we are slated to have two guests next week. A little spoiler, one of them may or may not be our first big leaguer big leaguer we have on the show, so stay tuned for that, but schedule for two guests next week. We're doing the show today because we think it's important to do and again, what's relevant right now this this ten game stretch, so we wanted to do a full breakdown of it. 00:08:46 Speaker 3: So that's our schedule. 00:08:49 Speaker 1: Let's start off with the Texas Rangers. It has been a while since we talked about the Texas Rangers. It has been what over three months since we last sat here on this podcast and had to worry about the Mariners facing off with the Rangers. In case you forgot last time, the Mariners played the Rangers Doomsday essentially for the Mariner's season, went down to Arlington at the first week of June and got swept and it wasn't necessarily close. These two ball clubs, though, since then, have gone in remarkably different directions. 00:09:25 Speaker 2: They have the Rangers have totally plummeted back to earth. Back then, it looked like they were gonna run away with the West all season. That's not the case anymore. And it was never more prelevant than a prevalent than when they lost nine in a row. Or sorry eight in a row for when the Mariners got up to even playing field with the with the Rangers, because that's what remember, everybody was tweeting out, like Jordan Chusman tweeted out how to lose a division in ten days, and it was that tweet of the Rangers losing all those games in a row, and it was the Mariners winning all those games in a row, and then they got neck and neck. Yeah, it's been totally polar opposite seasons in the second half for both of these teams. Because that's what's happened to the Rangers. Meanwhile, the Mariners have been just about as hot as anybody in the second half and highlighted by their unbelievable August to put them in the position they're now in. 00:10:09 Speaker 1: Overall, the Rangers since August sixteenth, when they still sat in first place of the American League West, they've gone twelve and twenty since that point, and their overall stats, I guess what really jumps out is they have a five and a half team era since that. It's been no surprise if you open social media and see the stats or the Rangers have blown thirty two of their sixty save opportunities this season, You're like, well, that probably makes sense. Yeah, that definitely makes sense. The offense has not been quite as dynamic as they were early. Overall, start to finish, the Rangers have had one of the three best offenses in baseball, but over that shortened stretch when their pitching has struggled, they've only got a one h three WRC plus in that sense, and that was insanely boosted thanks to law To pointing this out to me before the show so I could fix it. They raise their WRC plus over this stretch six points with their fifteen run outing on Wednesday, So credit to them for I guess turning it around. They've managed to hit better here recently. How is it going to be, though, against this pitching staff that, unlike the other two they're gonna face, is gonna be still rolling with a five man rotation. 00:11:25 Speaker 2: Well, they've got the easier half of the Mariners rotation if you're looking from the Rangers side of it. Obviously it's unfortunate for the Mariners, but the Rangers are not going to face either Luis Castillo or George Kirby in this series. It's gonna be Bryce Miller Friday, Logan Gilbert Saturday, Brian lou Sunday, And I'll say I think Brian los a lot different now than he was the first time he faced the Rangers during his debut. So this is definitely gonna be a challenge for both sides, but especially for the Rangers, who are gonna have to face a pitching staff that's as good as one they've seen in some time. 00:11:55 Speaker 1: Now, what makes me a little bit more optimistic, like I did just mentioned, the Rangers offensives come back down to earth some of those real breakout candidates. At the beginning of the season, Like you remember, we were sitting on here and wondering how Travis Jankowski had like a one thirty WRC plus and it just made no sense because he's a career bench guy. Well since August sixteenth, Frial, you'll be happy to know he has come back to earth his WRC plus and that stretches. Do you want to guess four? 00:12:23 Speaker 3: I was gonna say seven. 00:12:26 Speaker 1: Yeah, Well you were close. But he's not the only one. Guys like Josh Smith, who's a valuable role guy. Ezekiel Durant another breakout guy this year. Fifty two WRC plus over that stretch, and then a couple of notables a Dooley Scarcia has had some strikeout problems and overall just offensive problems since that, since that August sixteenth fifty eight WRC plus and another guy who was really a breakout guy this year, Jonaheim. People were really high on a fifty five WRC plus. So some of those guys who really rounded out the lineup, who made one of the most complete lineups in baseball, have really come back down to earth a little bit. And it'll be curious to see do they turn it on here of the final ten games of the season or is there going to be more of the Corey Seeger Show, which, in case you haven't missed, Yeah, I guess theoretically he cooled off in that stretch, a Loile. His WRC plus went down from his what season high of what around one to ninety all the way to one forty one. So he's he's cool, he's cool, and. 00:13:25 Speaker 2: Off got his paycheck in half. Yeah, So there's sides to both of the this. There's a side to both of these coins for the Rangers, just because a lot of their hitters have come back down to earth. But you look at their team's success as a whole at the plate, still good, especially their last two weeks. Since September tenth, this is still the best team in baseball offensively by WRC plus, and since September one, they're fourth sitting at one eighteen. So I don't really know how to judge the Rangers offense these days. There's a part of it saying, Okay, Durant's cooled off, cooled off. Adolies has been injured and is cooled off. But there's another side of it that says, oh, collectively, they're still hitting, So how does that fare against, say Bryce Miller on Friday, who has struggled to get swings and misses as of late. 00:14:14 Speaker 1: You know, these guys are going to be motivated to make up for their starts back in that series in June. In case you forgot, both Brian Wu and Bryce Miller started in that disastrous Mariner season series at the beginning of June in Texas, and they're going to get a chance to redeem themselves in the exact same spot. I mean, Wu went only two innings in his first career start, six earned runs. Bryce Miller went two and a third eight hit seven earned runs, you would have to imagine it's going to be a little bit better than that, and that there's going to be some extra juice knowing, hey, these are probably the last two starts we'll have to make this season. Bryce Miller and Brian Will. They'll each get one more after this Texas series, but this could be it for them this season pitching in general. They might get an opportunity in the bullpen during the postseason, but that's if the Mariners make the postseason. So you know they're here to empty the tank down in Texas, especially with their fastballs, and see if we can finally get that like amped up velocity, especially for Brian Wu, and see it maybe jump back up to his June levels. 00:15:17 Speaker 3: I feel like. 00:15:17 Speaker 2: I'm a little more interested to see what Bryce Miller does than Wu. 00:15:22 Speaker 3: I'm interested to see both of them. 00:15:23 Speaker 2: Don't get me wrong, I just I don't love the fact that Bryce Miller has not gotten swings and misses through most of his last couple of starts. Look at his last three outings against the Reds. He had five whiffs. Now he went five innings one or a run in that start. But we did not walk away from that outing saying he looks sharp against the Dodgers in his last start, five and a third shutout by the numbers on paper really good. He got six whiffs. I don't know, that does not spell success against the Rangers lineup that's been as good as anybody's throughout a lot of the season, and a lineup that's gotten really hot over the last couple of weeks. Now, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Because in the race start that Bryce Miller made, the start that Samdwich, those two aforementioned outings that I was talking about, he went five innings and gave up five earned runs, but he got fifteen whips in that start. Usually swings and missus lead to success. For whatever reason, for Bryce Miller, in the last couple outings, he's been lucky at points. But those starts that have featured less whiffs earned runs wise have been much better than the start where he was getting more strikeouts. So I hope there's a way he can kind of combine both where he can get some of these Rangers hitters to strike out and also put together five strong innings given up tow and runs or less. But I think I'm more interested to see what Miller does than Wu. We can get through Wu here in a second, but Wu has gotten swing and miss. 00:16:42 Speaker 1: Bryce has had some starts this year though, like out of nowhere, he will just start getting guys to swing and miss. I mean you mentioned that last race start. How about his first race start where he had the blister and he had to come out. It was the game while you remember it before disaster, before they really started turning it around in July. Was it June thirtieth? He goes out there three and a third innings and the exact number is twenty Is it like twenty whiffs and three innings? Like pretty pretty ridiculous stuff from Bryce Miller. Was a shame he had to come out of the game, but he was just chewing up the raised lineup. And then he did the same thing later a month and a half later down in Anaheim where he only went five innings, but he was getting the Angels to swing and miss at everything. So like it's there for Bryce Miller, he can do it. And again I'm thinking that they can see on the horizon that their workload is coming to an end and they can just go and unload the tank. Like the pitchers understand what's at stake here, Like failure is not an option against the Texas Rangers. I'm curious to see how Bryce is gonna mix it up. Is he gonna try and just force his fastball down the Rangers throat again, or is he gonna like is he gonna just try and junk it up a little bit more and just just keep them off balance. I don't know. I think I think this is interesting, and I think this is the This is definitely the series on the most nervous for because I just don't know what to expect from the starters. 00:18:05 Speaker 2: It's gonna set the tone too, because the fact you don't have Louise and Kirby going in this series also parlayed with this will determine a lot this weekend because if you go out and lose to A three, you're way behind the eight ball. You've got way more ground to make up all of a sudden than you would if you win two a three, And they're gonna need either Bryce Miller or Brian wo to truly bring it this weekend because they have to win one of those games. So I think this series is gonna tell a lot. And like you said the fact they have both of the rookies going in this series. Yeah, it's gonna be pretty, it's gonna be pretty fun to watch, and it's well, it's gonna be interesting at the very least. Now Brian wu on the other side, Oh, he's gotten swing and miss. If you remember Brian Woo in his first start against the Rangers, that's not the Brian Wo we're seeing now. Look at what he's done over his last few outings. Honestly, since the month of August, this guy's had a two twenty seven ERA since August first and his last couple of outings against the Angels and in the A's yes to inferior teams. But he had twenty whiffs against the Angels two starts ago, career high, and he had fourteen at Oakland. So give Brian Wood credit for a guy that is way past the inning limit, that pretty or not limit, but total anybody expected him to go. He still really brought it, even if it was against teams that aren't very good. He has turned in some really awesome starts in his last couple outings. 00:19:21 Speaker 1: And he's gotten better and he's evolved as well. We've talked about it here on this podcast on how his pitch mix has really evolved over the course of this season, and it's gonna be different than what the Rangers saw early on. I'm very fascinated with how Brian Wu was gonna approach this start, what his stuff is going to look like, and again, how much velocity he has. We've detailed how' velocity has gone down this season, but can he bring it back up for two starts? Can he get get a little bit extra juice for two starts and help help his stuff play up a little bit better? Because Brian's gonna have to start against the Astro the Rangers twice now, the team that lit him up in his Made League debut. He's going to get to face them in his final two starts of the season. How much is he going to adapt between start to start. They're gonna have to win one of his starts. They're getting in. They gotta win one of those Brian Wu starts, which means he needs to give them a chance to win. So this is fascinating and a very very good opportunity for Brian here at age twenty three, to be leaned on to pitch them into the playoffs. 00:20:28 Speaker 4: This fall, stream your favorites and discover more with Disney Plus, Hulu and ESPN Plus together. Watch the highly anticipated new season of Loki and see the ghost materialize in Haunted Mansion on Disney Plus. Catch more frights with The Boogeyman, an American horror story delegate, on Hulu and on ESPN Plus. Get into the action with college football and NFL. All of these and more streaming now. Get the Disney Bundle with plans starting at nine to ninety nine a month plans with esp Plus starting at fourteen ninety nine a month. Terms apply. See Disney Bundle dot com for details. 00:21:09 Speaker 2: Now here's the caveat with WU when talking about how good he's been since since August, because not only has he had the two twenty seven era since the start of August, but for the month of August as a whole, one six ninety RA so far here in September two eighty seven, two pretty awesome months. Now the caveat, here's who he's faced. He has faced the Angels twice, the A's twice, and the White Sox once. The Rangers are going to be a little bit of a different test than those three teams that he has faced over the last couple of months. I think he's made some awesome progressions throughout the year, but this is gonna be as battle test that as Brian Wu has been in his young big league career. Because you said it, they can't drop both of those starts, and they certainly cannot lose all four combined starts that him and Bryce Miller are gonna make. You have got to win at least two of those outings. 00:21:57 Speaker 3: So what is it going to. 00:21:59 Speaker 2: Take for him to continue what he's built over his last couple outings, find ways to get the Rangers to swing and miss, continue missing bats, and can he go five strong innings? I think that's about a fair bar to set for both wo and Miller, right. I don't think you're looking for six, seven, eight innings out of those guys. I think if you can get five strong, five and two, you take it. 00:22:21 Speaker 1: I think so too, especially when you have you have both those off days to help your bullpen over the last week. Let's look at the Rangers rotation. Now, Lyle we didn't mention it at the beginning, but both the Astros and the Rangers have shuffled their rotations to face the Mariners. They're pitching guys on short rest just to face the Mariners, so the Rangers are essentially I was curious who they were going to start because it was their number five spot in the rotation coming up on Sunday, and I was curious, like I think it was Cody Bradford who started in that spot a week ago and he wasn't very good. But they're just going to cut out the fifth starter here for this series, and it's going to be Nativaldi starting on Sunday. Dane Dunning's gonna start on Friday. Jordan Montgomery is going to start on Saturday. So that's a like. Nativaldi has not been very good since he's come back. He was injured for a lot of August, and he he had his best start since coming back, at least innings wise, against the Red Sox. He went five innings, four hits, three runs. But in the three previous starts in September, I mean we're talking an inning and a third, four earned runs, two and a third innings. He just went two and a third inning sorry against the A's where he had to leave that start, and then three and a third innings two or two runs, against the Toronto Blue Jays, like it just hasn't really been there for a wall that he's really kind of fallen apart here down the stretch, and I wonder like and he dominated the Mariners last time he faced them in June. He had one hit allowed through six innings, sorry, six and seven innings, so that was the ones that didn't write down fun. 00:23:54 Speaker 3: He threw a lot. 00:23:55 Speaker 1: Yeah, it was, it was. It was a really good start. So this I'm curious to see how the Mariners hit a depleted version of Nativaldi when his velocity is down, his off seat speed stuff isn't as sharp, and he's just tired. 00:24:10 Speaker 3: Some of it may have to do with the injury. You know. 00:24:13 Speaker 2: The question I have for you is this is confirmed right that that's their weekend rotation, Because if you were a fan that looked up on the MLB app, it currently still says Dunnings Friday, TVD Saturday, TVD Sunday. 00:24:25 Speaker 1: I'm gonna pull up the texts strangers pr I'm about ninety nine percent shirt. 00:24:30 Speaker 2: I believe you, and I think I saw the same tweet. I'm just helping out any fans that may might use the MLB at bad. 00:24:36 Speaker 1: App lot Dunning, Friday, Montgomery Saturday of Aldi Sunday. 00:24:41 Speaker 3: Okay, so there we go. 00:24:42 Speaker 1: Jorge Montgomery, though, has been pretty good. He is quite an acquisition by the Rangers, the one like one of the acquisitions that's actually really worked out for him so far. 00:24:52 Speaker 2: Which is funny because he's not a guy that gets a whole lot of swing and miss. Jordan Montgomery basically thrives off of getting weak roundball contact. But credit to him, he's at a the World War season by the way, which I would not have expected, especially when you look at his peripherals and his whole profile. He's a good pitcher. He doesn't feel like a four win pitcher to me, but since he's gotten traded over to Texas, he's been pretty nails for those guys. I've got to say three eras sub three to three sub three to three ERA for the whole by the year as a you know, in total. And also he had a rocky start to September where he gave up a lot of earned runs In his first two outings of the month. He went six earned runs against the Twins and eight earned runs against the A's. But he's peeking upward at the right time because Montgomery's last two outings, oh, he's gone fourteen scoreless. So which version are they. 00:25:40 Speaker 3: Going to get? 00:25:41 Speaker 2: Because again, it's been a good move. He was great in August and his last two starts have been really good. So you would figure Montgomery's going to turn in a good outing. But he's had his bumps in the road too. 00:25:52 Speaker 1: He's not faced the Mariners this season. He did spend most of the season with the Cardinals. He did not face the Mariners when the car most came to Seattle way back early on in the season. And then Dame Dunning is the guy who gets the ball on Friday for the Rangers. Overall in the season, he's been pretty good a three seven eight ERA and twenty three games starts. He has one game against the Mariners this season. He's a pretty good one back on May tenth. Six inning, six hits, two runs, five strikeouts. Another guy, though, has been kind of shaky recently. So and again, these guys are all going to be pitching. To think about this, all these guys are going to be pitching on one less day of rest when they face the Mariners the second time, one less day of rest because of the Rangers shaking up their rotation to get these guys in line against the Mariners. So now officially, for the first six games of this stretch, you're gonna get You're gonna get Dunning, Montgomery, Avaldi, Verlander, Framber, Javier. It's a pretty good, pretty pretty stout six game stretch. 00:26:53 Speaker 2: Yeah, buckle up. Although I will say for Dane Dunning, his second half's been pretty bad. This guy was lighting the world on fire in the first three into the year. Since July, it's been pretty tough sledding for the guy. Four ninety one ERA since July. First five h six ERA in the month of July, four oh one ERA in August, where he was a little bit better. He's got an ERA over six here in September. Now that's from a blow up start he had a couple weeks ago. He's actually had some better starts in his last couple so same thing. But his profile is somewhat similar to Montgomery's, only from the right handed side, where he's not going to strike a whole lot of guys out. He thrives on getting ground balls and weak contact. But unlike Montgomery, Dunning has had more problems in the second half than Jordan Montgomery has. So if you want to look at this glass half fall for the Mariners, you say, oh, well, we're getting Nativaldi and Dane Dunning, but those are two guys that have not pitched well at all. 00:27:46 Speaker 1: You should capitalize I think goodness. I would say from a Ranger side that they made that trade with the Cardinals for Montgomery, and then they got Chris Stratton as well. Those have been two of their I would count three good pitchers in the second and half. Martin Perez, by the way, I will note they moved him to the bullpen. He's actually been pretty good at in the bullpen. He's only allowed he hasn't allowed a run over his last eleven innings. But I'm looking at their era since August sixteenth, since their slide started. I mean, if we're talking guys who have been good, I would say Jordan Montgomery's been good, jose Le Clerk has been good. Surezer was fine, but he's hurt, he's out for the year. And then Chris Stratton's been good. He's got an ERA of two and a half, but that's it. Like the literally the rest of the Rangers pitching staff has been atrocious. Since then, we want to talk about some atrocious guys. Let's go to their bullpen. Their bullpen has been an abject disaster. Let me just drop this stat. We keep talking about it, so I'm just gonna throw it back out there. The Rangers have only converted twenty eight of sixty saves this season. Think about that, twenty eight of sixty save opportunities they have converted. That's less than fifty percent major league bullpen where they all throw hard. Just bizarre, just just absolutely bizarre. And it's been in large part to guys like a Roldis Chapman being awful here down the stretch. Brock Burke has given up thirteen earned runs over his last eleven and two thirds innings pitch. Will Smith is given up eleven earned runs and just ten and a third innings pitch. We think the Mariners relievers struggle at times. The Rangers this is where the actual struggle bus is. 00:29:30 Speaker 2: So it sounds like man Rangers are having bullpen problems. They're going with a four man rotation. He could use a starter. They should call Kansas City and see if Cole Reagan's is available. 00:29:40 Speaker 1: Oops. At least they at least they did trade for a for a good, upstanding citizen in society in a worldish Chapman. 00:29:48 Speaker 3: Who's been terrible by the way. 00:29:50 Speaker 1: Yeah he I'll give it to him. At the beginning of the season, he really had me. I was like, wellh he's throwing one h two again, he's looking and he's flexing on guys. After he strikes him Mount and I'm like, oh, wow, he's back. But then we look here and down the stretch. His average fastball velocity is where is it? Only ninety eight and a half miles an hour? Which if a oldest chapman's averaging under one hundred miles an hour on his fastball, he's in trouble. That the sign of a oldest chapman's struggling throwing a ton of off speed pitches and his fastball is under one hundred miles an hour. Watch out. 00:30:25 Speaker 2: And even a guy like brock Burke. Even though the Rangers as a team were not good last year, rock Burke was awesome. They relied on that guy a ton. Not the case here in twenty twenty three. Just another sign, by the way, that shows you how fickle bullpens can be and why the Mariners doing what they've done the last three seasons. 00:30:41 Speaker 3: You don't see. 00:30:43 Speaker 1: Since August sixteenth, file the Rangers have blown thirteen of seventeen save opportunities. So even like think about this Mariners fans, as long as the Ranger, as long as there has not been twenty seven outs on the scoreboard, the Mariners will have a chance in all seven of these games against the Rangers until they prove us wrong. The Rangers have just been so inept at holding leads down the stretch. The depth of their bullpen just really isn't there the key in this series. You gotta get the starters out, get the starters out, which these guys haven't really outside of Jordan Montgomery, haven't shown the ability to stay in games long. Once you get those guys out and get into that bullpen, it like then the Mariners bats might wake up. You might be bitching about the Mariners' bats here in the month of September. I think they'll look pretty good against this Rangers team. 00:31:35 Speaker 3: They have to. 00:31:36 Speaker 2: So we did a social media segment this week outlining three keys to the series against the Rangers. We did it over at Pagotcha's Pub eighty five. By the way, and we headlined what the three biggest keys for this team are this weekend, I'd say number one of all of them. You have got to hit this bullpen. You have to for every reason we just aligned and I should say outlined and put in front of you. With that, these games are probably going to be close. Considering these two teams are fighting neck and neck for a wildcard spot and a division spot. These games are going to be close, and they're both playing for a ton. So when it comes down to the end of the games and you look at Mariner's bullpen versus Rangers bullpen, you have to take advantage of that bullpen. You have got to hit that Rangers bullpen, especially if games are going to be close late, because that's going to be the difference maker. 00:32:26 Speaker 1: A couple injury notes on the Rangers. We did mention Max Scherzer is out for the season. He tore I forget exactly the muscle a terrorist. Major didn't know that was a didn't know that was a muscle. Probably should have paid attention more in school. Then again, we went to Arizona State, so why bother. Also, Josh Young came back this week and immediately hit a home run. He was an All Star this year for the Rangers. That's not a good sign for the Mariners. Are writing Masher and then Doley Scarcia came back on the same day as well. This You'll be probably about as healthy as the Rangers have been for the most part over this stretch run of the season, sans Jacob de Gram and Max Scherzer, which if they were in this rotation, I would be quite a bit more concerned. But I think we're doing okay at this point in that sense. Gonna be a fascinating series though. Against the Texas Rangers. 00:33:22 Speaker 2: Yeah, I keep saying I have a buckle up. Maybe it's me trying to talk to myself and tell myself to buckle up, But I bet you there's listeners and fans out there I feel the exact same way I do, and are trying to breathe in, breathe out, and get themselves ready. 00:33:34 Speaker 3: The other key. 00:33:35 Speaker 2: By the way, we didn't even talk about Logan Gilbert in this segment. They better win that start because we talked about the two rookies a ton and how much they mean to this series. You've got to win that Logan Gilbert start, and Logan should have a bounce back outing after what he did against the Dodgers, which was not a good start. That's the game you gotta win. You have got to put yourself in good position by getting that start and getting that win on Saturday. 00:33:56 Speaker 1: And one of Logan's best starts of the season came against the Rangers. You might remember us all the way back in May six and two thirds. He struck out ten, walked one. Believe he was he had a no hitter in that game into that sixth inning. He was doing pretty well in that game. And I think we'll be looking forward to facing this Rangers lineup again. 00:34:13 Speaker 2: I think we're just about ready to transition to the Astros here. That'll be the second team we preview before that. Quick note from our friends over at Columbia Athletic Club. 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So the Houston Astros, while they didn't play like it for a lot of the season, second half as a whole, they have looked much more like the Houston Astros, although they haven't played all that great in September, which has opened the door for both the Mariners and Rangers to crawl their way back into the Al West Race. 00:35:13 Speaker 1: Which is flabbergasting because their lineup Liile is mashing. Oh my god. We were kind of wondering throughout the season, man, when are all the Astros gonna click? They haven't all been healthy at once. Aw two of they missed the first bit of the season after his injury in the World Baseball Classic, and it just they were kind of they weren't weren't hitting like they usually do. Last two months, they have a team WRC plus of one thirty four team WRC plus of one thirty four, and like we watched the Mariners face them, this season, and it's really been no issue for the Maritors' pitching staff going against that lineup and shutting it down. I have a sneaking feeling it might be a little bit different when they face them Monday, too day Wednesday next week. 00:36:03 Speaker 2: I am happier than can be that the Mariners have had the success that they've had against the Astros. But in these type of games, this is where Houston thrives. Man they've been there, they're used to this now that the Mariners haven't. They were in the postseason last year too, But this group of Astros has a ton of experience and workload in high pressure game. This is the type of games that they'll thrive in. Along with the fact that their offense has been so red high. You mentioned their team WRC, plus they've been great in September, they've been great since August. They're gonna hit, especially now that they have yored on Alvarez back. You know, this lineup's gonna hit. While Alex Bregman, by the way, has quietly had one of the best seasons of his career, so this is not going to be an easy out for the Mariners. 00:36:47 Speaker 3: It will help that they. 00:36:48 Speaker 2: Have Luis Castillo and George Kirby pitching at home, but it's not going to be an easy series. 00:36:54 Speaker 1: And the third guy that will throw for the Mariners will be Bryce Miller, and Bryce has pitched pretty well against the Astros the season. Shockingly enough, with that formidable lineup, he has really not had that much issue with the Astros. And you mentioned his lack of whiffs. I mean he didn't even his first start against the Astros, he got more whiffs than his second start, but regardless, both very successful starts. Let's touch on that in a couple of minutes. But first, I mean, just to put some context of this Astros lineup last two months, Jose Al Tuve one seventy five WRC plus, Alex Bregman one fifty, yord On one sixty eight, Kyle Tucker won twenty nine, and then a whole bunch of death pieces around it. Jeremy Panna, who you and I like to trash quite a bit, had a one twenty five WRC plus the last two months. How about you Near Diaz, one of the real surprises this year in the American League, looking like one of the better just depth players in baseball, has also continued to hit really well in this stretch. I mean, one sixty WRC plus the last two months. This does This lineup does not have a weak spot, unless, of course, Dusty Baker insist on sitting Chas McCormick for whatever reason. That one of the funniest things ever. That's just a total sidebar for me. But reading some quotes about him, just like, yeah, Jazz needs to earn it. Despite the fact Chas McCormick here in the second half is one twenty one WRC plus sole playing pretty good defense in centerfield. So good job, Dusty. 00:38:21 Speaker 2: Oh, he's been far and away their best centerfielder. He's had a phenomenal year. What you like, What is he talking about sitting him on the bench. Yeah, I don't know. That's just like you said. Maybe that's a side note here. The Astros are gonna hit. They are gonna hit. Now, are they gonna pitch late in games? Because here's a note similar to how the Rangers have not faredwell will in their bullpen all year. The Astros haven't been that bad, but since August, bullpen hasn't fared well since September first. For eighty nine Era A collectively and since August first, it's just over four and a half. That's not great. 00:38:57 Speaker 1: They do have, excuse me if they do have the visual guys in the bullpen, who over the last two months have still been pretty good. I mean Ryan Presley, philm Ayton, Kennel Graveman, Brian Abray You brianon RAYU by the way, has not given up an earned run the last two months. That dude scares me. He throws cheddar as as everyone likes to say, sheddar, and he's shredded through the Mariners lineup a number of times. So individually, I think they still do have some good pieces in that bullpen. We saw Ryan Presley give up that three run home run to Cedric Mullens earlier this week. But outside of that, the pitching staff, you're right, hasn't been quite as good overall. As a staff, they have a four and a half e er the last two months. Some of that has been rotation instability as well. They have they bullpen has struggled lile, but yeah, back half of their rotation has really just limped to the finish line. Chris, I don't know how else to describe Christian hobby Er JP France and Hunter Brown over the last two months. Besides, they've just been terrible. 00:39:55 Speaker 2: They've been awful, Which is funny that the Ashers have played this well in spe of all that, in spite that they've had struggles as a collective unit in their bullpen, despite that overhalf their rotations not pitching well. I guess that just speaks volumes to how good their offense has been and how much that jord On Alvarez guy kind of means to this team. Maybe just a little bit, But they have not pitched well. So again, glass half full for the Mariners, there will be spots in this Astros pitching group where you can take advantage. Now they've jumbled their rotation around, like the Rangers have to set it up to face the Mariners. So you're gonna get Justin Verlander, you're gonna get Framber Valdez, and then you'll get Hotty Air. Similar to how I said the Mariners need to win that Logan Gilbert start, they probably need to win that Stark Face in Hobby air because we'll see what Frambur and JV do. But as a whole, it has not been great on the pitching side for the Astros. It's not been their strong suit as of late. 00:40:49 Speaker 1: Mariners haven't had much trouble though with Valdez this year. I mean, really, you remember the last start, very memorable start thanks to fram Or for kicking the horn nests and throwing at the Mariners. Because I wrote it down here as this, He's like, well, yeah, August nineteenth, Framber only went five innings, ten hit, six earned runs, and one hissy fit on top of it. 00:41:13 Speaker 2: And they've had success against Justin Verlander too. Now, they haven't seen him since he was reacquired by the Astros, but they had a couple starts last year where they let him up. They certainly let him up in that playoff game despite not winning that game. They can hit Justin Verlander again. There are opportunities for the Mariners to totally take advantage in all of these games. And you're right, they have hit Framber Valvez. It's it has not been the same guy as a season ago, who the Mariners just could not put a barrel up against. They can hit all these guys. 00:41:41 Speaker 1: And Verlander really is showing signs of Ain's age. Run prevention for him is still pretty good, but the velocity's down, the walk rate is up. The strikeout rate is down. There's a lot of things across the board where Verlander's just you know, you can see the age kind of getting to him. And there's a reason, like once guy's hit forty usually you start to fall. Often you don't sign them to pay him forty million dollars. But you know, to be honest, the Astros just wanted to win. And I don't know where they'd be without Justin Verlander, because as we mentioned, the rest of the rotation rotation has either been injured or really struggling here in the second half, and they just were able to offload a little bit of payroll and give up a prospect and return they get Verlander back in a crucial spot that they need. I'm curious to see how they'll play against Javier as well. I mean, Christian Xavier came into this season as a sleeper cy young candidate, but he hasn't been that at all. As he been close. He's been pretty terrible this year. And I remember watching him last year as that sixth guy in that rotation thing, and man, dude could be like a two on another team. But this year he's barely stayed in that Astros rotation. It's the bearess have their work cutout for him against this against this rotation, you know highlighted before they get the six best starters they will face over this ten game stretch, all in the first six games. 00:43:00 Speaker 2: I think now, if the Mariners can hold serve with the Astros throughout the first weekend, not when the two play each other, but while the Mariners are playing the Rangers, and while the Astros are playing the Royals, which by the way, Cole Reagan's will start in the Friday game, so hopefully that's an opportunity for Kansas City to steal one. If the Mariners can hold serve, they've got a real shot to win the West. And I say that because not only will they face off with the Astros, but Houston, aside from Seattle, has the toughest remaining schedule because they will get the Mariners for three and then they finished with the Diamondbacks, who are fighting for an NL wildcard spot for their lives, so they're going to be playing for something. So the Astros don't have an easy schedule that final week. If they can find a way, the Mariners that being to stay neck and neck with the Astros, through this weekend, it's all out in front of them. If the Royals could find a way to steal two of three and win this series again, which they just did recently against the Astros by the way, and you have Cole Reagan's going, it's very possible. And we know the Royals, despite being a bad team this year on paper, they give teams fits, major fits. 00:44:04 Speaker 1: They are annoying as fuck, is what you meant to say, Lyle. 00:44:07 Speaker 3: Yes, they are annoying as fuck. 00:44:10 Speaker 1: Mano. So in this series for for the Mariners, I mean, this is about as good of a pitching lineup as you could ask for us, not only just what they've done this season, but also what they've done this season against the Astros. I mean, Luis Castillo has had two remarkably good starts against against the Astros, bitch fourteen innings, only giving up five earned runs ten total hits between the two low strikeout totals. But regardless, Mariners, I believe one both of his starts very effective. George Kirby went six and two thirds innings against the Astros this series before the break, just one earned run on six hits, and then I highlighted Bryce Miller's two starts six innings back in May with five strikeouts six and a third innings on August eighteenth against the Astros just two hits across two strike outs. We talk about the other team shuffling of the rotation, but the Mariners don't need to shuffle their rotation in this aspect to give themselves the best chance at winning this series. And then again on top of it, like Bryce Miller's already pitched well against the Astros this season, there is a chance he regresses a little bit against the Astros and they finally see him a little bit better. But in terms of the three guys who have had the most success against the Astros this season, and Lougan Gilbert also had a pretty good start against the Astros. But like, this is what you want it and they're gonna have the opportunity to do it. 00:45:34 Speaker 2: Yes they are. I'm probably not as nervous for the Astros series as I am for these two Rangers series, and you're picking between the lesser of two evils. Obviously I'm nervous for all ten of these games. But just the fact that the Mariners have had success against Houston, it's at home, there's signs that Houston may be vulnerable and the Mariners could get to him, and the Mariners care more about the Rangers than anybody else. Pick the lesser two evils. It's about Houston feeling a little bit less pressure. But it's gonna be a tough series either way. 00:46:07 Speaker 1: We've seen it though, we've seen their success against the Astros. We know this team can beat the Astros and beat them pretty handily as well, So there's not really as much worry when you go in there to face the Astros because you know that roster has beaten the other roster handily eight out of ten times they've played this season, and you could absolutely it doesn't worry your mind that they can go in there and they can also win two of three at home with your two best starters throwing in the same series, So that work ends up working out pretty okay. And then those two starters turn around and they'll start the final two games of the season, two games you absolutely could need to win if you're sitting five hundred in that ten game stretch at that point four and four, you need those two on the bump. Fascinating series, though, with Houston, I'm looking forward to it. The Astros bats again very good, struggling back half of the rotation, kind of shaky pitching staff here down the stretch, gonna be. They've been mostly healthy too, They've gotten those guys back from injury, and they should be primed to go for the playoffs as well, should they should they make it. So it's some that's good, yeah, man, so much, so much to look at. 00:47:14 Speaker 2: There's a lot, and we will say this is not the same Astros team as the one in years past. They're still good, but they are not as lethal as they were a year ago or just over their last six years or so. In general, this is probably the weakest Astros team in a few years. Not to say that they're not good. They are and they are not to be taken lightly by any stretch. But they don't feel like they're sitting on Mount Olympus the way they have been in some other years. 00:47:37 Speaker 1: No, the depth has shown that, and really, as you said that, the pitching has not quite been there for them. But they've been pretty good here down the stretch. They still mash. I still have an image of yord On Alvarez burned into my brain that won't go away. Anytime soon, and the Mariners are going to need to beat them here down the stretch to have a chance to get into the playoffs. Before we get to our final segment and talk about the Toronto Blue Jays, it's your word from simply Seattle. You guys can use our code Marine fifteen for fifteen percent off all at simply Seattle. You can go check out their entire collection at simply sattle dot com. If you want the best Mariners gear, Seahawks, gear, Huskies, gear, Pacific Northwest theme gear, they have it all for you. You saw a couple of mozodes ago Lyyle Goldstein wearing his come to Seattle shirt. You want to support that cause you want to get show hey out to Seattle. You can go buy one of those shirts at simply Sattle dot com. Use our code Marine fifteen and get fifteen percent off your order. Again, that's Marine fifteen at simply Sattle dot com. Third team will look at here one that the Mariners do not have any influence over and have no direct way of affecting how the Blue Jays end this season. They are fighting though a spot with the blue Jays at half up on the Mariners and the Rangers in the wild card hunt and a difficult team to get a grasp on. If I will, if I'm gonna put it in a broad stroke. 00:49:08 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a team that's thrived on their offense all season. They've been awful at the plate as of late. If you look at the last two weeks, the Blue Jays have not hit at all. You're talking about a team that's got a seventy one WRC plus since September ten. Where does that rank in Baseball twenty ninth. They only rank ahead of the Angels in that time in terms of offense. In terms of WRC plus, they have not hit in any way, shape or form. Yet they're gonna have to over this last ten game stretch. 00:49:38 Speaker 1: They're really the only offense that has made the Texas Rangers pitching staff look good this month. The only one they got swept if you, in case you missed it, the Blue Jayson a four game series at home against the Texas Rangers, got swept last weekend, and yet they still managed to be a half game up on Texas. Go figure. Welcome to the playoff race, everybody. 00:50:00 Speaker 3: Now. 00:50:00 Speaker 2: The other side of this is when they have not hit, they have pitched, because their pitching has been pretty good over the last month and a half or so. You look it since August first or fourth and Starter's era, that rotation has pitched well. And our old friend yuse Kakuchi's he's been pretty good when they needed him the most. 00:50:19 Speaker 1: How much of that can win credit to his sleep schedule? 00:50:22 Speaker 3: Yeah? Do we want to talk about that for a second? 00:50:24 Speaker 2: What a what a wild story that? Just the other day he talked about having a little bit of what was it neck. 00:50:31 Speaker 3: Pain right after he was starry cramps? 00:50:33 Speaker 2: Right, yeah, and he said, Oh, it's because I only got eleven hours sleep, not the thirteen to fourteen hours that I usually get. And I'm thinking to myself, it's like double the sleep I get, dude, how much? 00:50:46 Speaker 3: How do you possibly sleep. 00:50:47 Speaker 2: For that long? Did he do this in Seattle? By the way, I don't ever remember hearing about this. 00:50:52 Speaker 1: I don't know They're gonna have to change the title of Sleepless in Seattle though, because someone's definitely getting their sleep in. How do you how do you have time to sleep fourteen hours a day, especially as a professional athlete. How much work do you have to put in? Think about it? You spend what a third of every single day of your life. If you're sleeping a healthy amount asleep, how do you where do you find fourteen hours to close the blinds, get in bed, and do nothing but sleep? 00:51:21 Speaker 2: Like, Okay, this actually doesn't shock me that much. Sorry, not shock me is not the right word. It shocks me to hear you say Kakuchi sleeps this much. If you were actually to plan out a schedule, they probably do have time to sleep. Because let's say you get out from a game. Game ends at ten o'clock, You get back to the hotel or your house depending on you're at home or on the road, at eleven thirty. Roughly, let's say you go to bed around eleven thirty twelve. No, if your game ends at ten, you get back at like eleven thirty. 00:51:51 Speaker 1: Then you wake up at two o'clock. 00:51:54 Speaker 2: Yeah, but pitchers get there later often times than hitters, so you probably could do it. If you got to bed at twelve, you wake up at let's say one, Because that does the student. 00:52:02 Speaker 1: Now go to the grocery store or anything, or have to run any errands, go go pick up his mail, like anything, like anything that requires extra time during the day. Away from the ballpark. 00:52:14 Speaker 2: How often are big leaguers going to the store during the season. Half the year you're on the road, and then when you're at the park, you're there so many hours of the day. 00:52:21 Speaker 3: I don't know. 00:52:22 Speaker 2: You could probably manage it if you wanted to. 00:52:25 Speaker 1: Could you fit a fourteen Could you fit sleeping fourteen hours into your schedule? 00:52:31 Speaker 2: Absolutely not. But I'm not a professional athlete. 00:52:35 Speaker 1: You think of all the work professional athletes too, that seems like less likely that they would find fourteen hours to sleep. I mean, you're literally talking about driving home from the ballpark, going to sleep, waking up immediately, having to get back in your car and go back to back to the clubhouse because you literally just slept through everything else. How much you missed by sleeping until two of I'm I'm a good sleeper. I have never slept until two o'clock, not once. But you're telling me a thirty year old professional athlete sleeps fourteen hours. I'm jealous, man, I credit to him, man, Like, I don't know how you feel. 00:53:17 Speaker 3: Well. 00:53:17 Speaker 1: I can't even sleep past usually like nine hours. Now I have to get up. I can't do it. 00:53:22 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm the same way. 00:53:23 Speaker 2: I don't sleep all that long, so I guess you say, finds a way to do it. Which, listen, let's hope he gets only ten or eleven hours sleep this next week or so, because the Mariners could use him turning in a clunker or two, especially considering when you look at who's pitching for the Rays in this weekend series against the Jays. You got Tyler Glass now Friday, which obviously he's really good, but then it's Zach Lyttel Saturday, and it's TOADJ. Bradley on Sunday. Yeah, this feels like a series that could favor the Jays. Now they haven't hit. Maybe they'll continue to not hit. But if you just look at the pitching matchups with the Jays throwing basset Friday, hunging Saturday, you say on Sunday, shapes up well for him. 00:54:05 Speaker 1: The Jase have had some just puzzling names, like as you mentioned, they don't hit, some puzzling names that just have not hit. Here in the second half, Matt Chapman is putting up a tough he Ghosa Witch line. Over the last two months forty eight WRC plus last two months, Matt Chapman, the guy people were crowning the MVP in the first month of the season forty eight. But it's not just him. I mean, how about the dude who has won the American League hit title the last two years, Boba shit the last two months, sixty two WRC plus. And then one other is wet Merrifield, who they rely on to hit, and he's not a great hitter. But fifty four WRC plus what what? That's crazy? And all of that is stacked on top of the fact that vlad Guroow Junior can't do anything this year that's not average anything. 00:54:57 Speaker 2: Well, if you're our friend Peter Apple, he needs to continue hitting for average. Have you seen him freaking out over this Vlattie hit total? 00:55:04 Speaker 1: What kind of bet? Oh? So he has a season he has a season hit total for Vladdy, doesn't he? 00:55:09 Speaker 3: Yeah? 00:55:10 Speaker 2: So, Peter Apple, friend of the pod who much like ARM, hosts our mothership podcast, the Just Baseball Show. We've had him on. You can go check out that interview he's got so yeah, he did what. He had a few season bets and they're all parlayed and all of them have hit except for the Vladdie over hit total, which he needs I think it's thirteen more at the time of recording, and there's ten or eleven games to go, and Vladdie just got banged up recently. Now it seemed like there was a chance that he wasn't gonna play for a little bit. Sounds like he's just day to day instead, so he will continue to hit. 00:55:44 Speaker 3: But I've just seen. 00:55:44 Speaker 2: Peter freaking out about it on Twitter because by the way he put I think two hundred bucks on this at the start of the year. If Laddie gets thirteen more hits, he cashes out to what I believe is about sixty five hundred bucks. 00:55:56 Speaker 3: So geez, he's. 00:55:58 Speaker 2: Been freaking out and I don't but yeah, I mean, it hasn't been Blatty's best season, but I have enjoyed watching Peter's discourse on Twitter about it. 00:56:07 Speaker 1: This is another bit of a sidebar, But have you dove much into this vlad Guerrero junior season of why he's struggling. I mean, this dude is in the ninetieth percentile and above in quality of contact, expected batting average, expecting slugging average, eggs of velocity seventy second rate, and barrel rate ninety first percentile and hard hit rate and yet he is a replacement level first baseman this year nearly. 00:56:36 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's crazy. It's part of it because he plays bad defense. 00:56:40 Speaker 1: His defense sucks first percentile. 00:56:43 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I mean, and I figured that was part of it. Yeah, he's never he's never really been a great defender, but his defense. 00:56:49 Speaker 1: Is like overall, this year is like if ty ty France had this line, people would like, ty France is worse this year. We've we've highlighted that. But if ty France put up a zero point eight F four and a one to fifteen WRC plus with a two sixty four three forty two four forty slash one at first base, people would want ty Frantz replaced. 00:57:12 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:57:13 Speaker 2: Now, I don't think people are saying that about Laddie. They're probably saying, look, he's kind of had a down year. You would expect that he'd pick it up next season. But it has been an interesting year for a Blue Jays team that obviously is fighting for a playoff spot but also has hit so badly over the last few weeks. You could kind of use the guy that's expected to be your best bat to heat up here at the perfect time. But it just hasn't happened for Vladdie. 00:57:38 Speaker 1: No, it hasn't, thankfully though. For the Mariners, they are playing the Rays and the Yankees, and the Yankees have played the Blue Jays pretty well this season, and honestly, the Yankees, for being out of it, they've played pretty well here down the stretch. We Garrett cole was phenomenal today. He's probably gonna win the cy Young. It's unfortunate for Luis, but Garrett cole is it looks looks like he's on his way to winning his first Sye Young and he's going to get another start against the Blue Jays. Yeah, he will get another start against the Blue Jays next week, I believe. So it's very interesting stuff. And then Tampa, like Tampa still is trying to win the division on their side, they're still chasing down the Orioles. So there's a lot to play for opposite of the Blue Jays against teams who are have clearly have the players to beat Toronto. So it very well could end up that all three Al West teams get in if Toronto turns has a bad pitching week and the offense continues to struggle. 00:58:37 Speaker 2: Although the pitching has been what's carried and as of late, not just the rotation, but their bullpen's actually been pretty good too. They're eighth in bullpenny ra since August first, so for the bulk of August in September, it's carried them. Now the other side of that, they have struggled in the month of September. So as a whole last couple of months it's been good. They had a great month of August. They're twenty third in bullpen eras in September first, so it's been a little topsy turvy for the Blue Jays and if it continues that way, they're going to be in trouble because if you're not hitting and you're not pitching well late in games, that doesn't bode well. 00:59:14 Speaker 1: It's fascinating what happens when you when you add a month to a sample and then take a month off a sample, because you just list that twenty third in bullpen eras since September first, but since August first, if you just look at just era numbers for a bunch of their key guys in their bullpen, Tim Masa, Eric Swanson, Jordan Romano, Jordan Hicks all have eras under two two five since then, and that's that's pretty nails. And that's all different styles of pitching and different angles and different velocities and all sorts of guys out of the bullpen, which makes bullpens harder to hit. Shout out Derek Swanson, that dude continues to pitch really well. Nice guy. Was a great Mariner and glad to see him have success in Toronto though, Eric, you want to have a few to foutings here down the stretch Ustin Seattle would appreciate it, thank you. 01:00:05 Speaker 2: He's still sitting in the Astros bullpen. 01:00:08 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, he probably is waiting to face jord On. It's like, when is Scott gonna When is Scott gonna put me in? Hm? Oh wait, wait, Robbie, why are you jogging in? Are you sure? Are you sure? That's what he said? Oh oh okay, oops, game over. 01:00:26 Speaker 3: Look. 01:00:27 Speaker 2: I think the trades worked out pretty well for both sides. Now, seeing what tay Oscar's done the last couple of months, I'm very glad he's on this team, and like we've talked about, I would be more than happy for the Mariners to bring him back next year because they need depth in that lineup. But Eric Swanson's been good for the Blue Jays too. He hasn't fallen off, He's continued to be really good and he's helped a Blue Jays bullpen that for the most part of the season's been good. 01:00:49 Speaker 3: Just as a whole. 01:00:50 Speaker 2: Over the last month, they've kind of had their ups and downs. Man, it's gonna be fascinating what they do because their schedule is not it's not a gauntlet, but it's not easy. 01:01:00 Speaker 1: My final note here on the Blue Jays that if you told me this, I don't know in April that a lineup of George Springer, Brandon Bell, Kevin Kiermaier, Vladgerer, Junior Boba, Schett, Matt Chapman, Witt Merrifield, We're all gonna be lapped and carried here down the stretch by Davis Schneider. I would have laughed. But David Schneider, like remember that name. This dude over the last two months is slugging over six thirty an on base percentage over four hundred and a one eighty seven WRC, plus walking nearly sixteen percent of the time, relying on the young guy to carry them through like any good veteran squad would let the young guys do all the work. 01:01:43 Speaker 2: He's thrived out of nowhere too. He wasn't some huge prospect. He's just popped at the perfect time for a team that was in major need of a spark of offense. 01:01:52 Speaker 1: Yeah. Very interesting, and I'm curious if any of these any of these regulars are going to heat up for the Jays down the stretch. It's so weird to see these guys so bad, Like these are all star caliber players that just aren't playing well. I feel like this Blue Jays team is way too talented to be where they are right now. I feel like the Blue Jays should have like five more wins than they do right now, but they don't. And I've seen on Twitter that Blue Jay fans are frustrated and this team is just not playing up to up to par. And can't say I blame him. 01:02:25 Speaker 3: No, I can't either. 01:02:26 Speaker 2: Also, if the Blue Jays actually missed the playoffs, I feel like I'm gonna have to tweet out that video again. Of those fan interviews I was dealing with those Blue Jays fans, including the first guy that just let us and Mariners fans totally have it. He goes you know all we do in this ballpark. We hit home run, we hit home runs, we went home run derbys. This is our home park. These bums in Seattle they got nothing. You know what their name is, the Seattle Bums, is what he said. 01:02:51 Speaker 3: Now. 01:02:51 Speaker 2: When the Mariners took over the Blue Jays and the wild card standings a few weeks back, I tweeted that out because I just thought it was so on brand. If the Blue Jays actually missed the playoffs, I think that's gonna have to go out again. 01:03:00 Speaker 1: I think so too. Yeah that, yeah, that's good. That was quite an interaction, and as Blue Jays got throttled that. 01:03:06 Speaker 2: Night, Man Blue Jays, that was probably the best fan interview, one singular fan interview we've had all year. We've had some great people, but that one was just totally off the rails, which Blue Jays fans get get into it when they're at Timo Will Park. 01:03:20 Speaker 1: Yeah, you mix Canadian with alcohol and a big three game set in Seattle and boom, there we go. 01:03:27 Speaker 3: There you go? Is that just about it? 01:03:30 Speaker 2: Are we ready to kind of turn the page over to the week and weekend and kind of sift our way through all this? 01:03:38 Speaker 1: I think yeah, yeah, I think so. 01:03:41 Speaker 3: Well. 01:03:41 Speaker 2: I will say the same thing to all you listeners, all your Mariners fans out there that I did in our Layer talk on social media here on Wednesday night, is buckle up, get some good sleep, get some Useay Kakuchi level sleep, eat some comfort food, do whatever you've got to do to get yourself mentally prepared for the next ten games, because it's gonna be as stressful and high pressure as we've ever seen for some of our lifetime as Mariners fans. 01:04:08 Speaker 1: So before we wrap up prediction, what's the record here over the next ten games. 01:04:14 Speaker 2: Yeah, So we'll have some more podcasts to break more of this down obviously before then, because we'll do another Wednesday show, another Friday show before the season ends. But as we sit right here, I will say they go six and four and they will get in. 01:04:29 Speaker 1: I'm gonna say, I'm gonna say they go six and four as well, and they also get in. Well, two biased Mariners fans can't ever trust. 01:04:37 Speaker 3: You, No, you can't. 01:04:39 Speaker 2: And let's hope they live up to it or not in the sense that they go eight and two and blow everybody out of the water, because that'd be awesome. 01:04:45 Speaker 1: So six and four, though you is this would boil down to the last game of the season, whether they get in orund If they're going six and four, that's how long it's gonna take. So you better have ten days worth of anxiety pills alcohol however you like to cope with stress, make sure you stock up because we're in for a ride. 01:05:06 Speaker 2: That would be the third season in a row where the Mariners win ninety games, because if they go six and four, they win ninety. Now will they make the playoffs for the second straight year or will that be a situation where they win ninety games three straight years and miss the playoffs two of those three years? Because man, that doesn't sound like a fun scenario. 01:05:26 Speaker 1: That sounds like that sounds like the Mariner. So that sounds on brand. 01:05:31 Speaker 3: Yeah, it does. 01:05:32 Speaker 2: Well, Buckle up, we're certainly going to and above all, let's hope for some good Mariners baseball here down the stretch. That's all we can do at this point. We're gonna sit back and watch and hope the boys get it done. So that'll just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full form podcast. You can do so on Apple, Spotify, Google and Amazon. If you're listening, make sure to follow us, download our episodes, leave us that five star review. Really, the reviews and the downloads help us out so much. Only takes a couple extra seconds too, so make sure to go do that. We've got a video side to the podcast on YouTube. You can watch over there, like comment, subscribe, turn the notification bells on and go, and follow us on social media. We've got a bunch more content coming. We're going to continue to roll it out as the weeks go on into the playoffs, hopefully and certainly during these last ten games. Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod. That's tj Im Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.