Episode 68: Buying Or Selling Potential Free Agents, And Our World Series Preview/Predictions

[00:00:00] Welcome to Episode Number 68 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We're buying and selling free agents. These guys will be free agents in a couple of weeks. We've picked out three of them and we'll buy or sell their spot on the roster for the 2024 Mariners. We have our World Series Preview and we'll close out the show with Speak Your Mind.

[00:00:42] We'll see you next time.

[00:01:10] Welcome to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording here on Thursday, October 26th. And for the first time in quite a while, we actually haven't had a baseball game between episodes. It feels like there's this void of nothingness between Wednesday's episode and when we're sitting here recording now. So it's like, do I still talk about or am I opening with baseball?

[00:01:36] We can open with the fact that the discourse has not gotten any better on Mariners Twitter about this World Series. I know that's kind of similar to how we started Wednesday, but you want to start with an opener. There's your opener. That's what's been trending because there hasn't been games. So what do people talk about? Well, that. It's like a bottle of wine. It's like a bottle of wine. The bottle of wine was opened prior to Wednesday's episode. And then over the course of this week, it is aged masterfully for where we are now.

[00:02:05] I mean, it goes down so, so smooth to just scroll down and just continue to see all the things that we want to see. But I know I think some of the people would like to see some of the stuff we have in this episode. We do have buy or sell here in this very Friday episode of this podcast. I don't know if these people would totally be on board, though, with what some of the suggestions we have just to just a note before I think you have something else to add.

[00:02:32] These players are not top of the line players because you know why? Do you know why? Because every top of the line player, you know, Lyle and I would sit here and say bye. We want it. We wanted to be at least there to be at least a little bit of mystery. Again, we're going to try to save a bunch of Shohei talk and a bunch of discussion about some of the top free agents for just a little bit later in the offseason. Like when free agency really gets rolling, there's going to be more to talk about. So obviously, we're going to dive into some of those guys later.

[00:03:01] But these are guys that you can have some back and forth on would they help the Mariners or not. So we're going to dive into it and talk about it here. So let's get into our buy or sell and let's lead off with our first candidate, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. From the Arizona Diamondbacks, an outfielder. He is currently playing in the World Series as of this episode being out. Lyle, are you buying and selling the eventual free agency of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.?

[00:03:30] Can you buy and sell? I did also have an asterisk too, but I'd like to hear what you think. Okay. Well, you just you said buy and sell. So I was like, well, that would be a tough thing. Sorry, buy or sell. There we go. I am buying. I am buying, however, with the idea that he is about the third bat you'd bring in in free agency in terms of impact.

[00:03:56] If Lourdes Gurriel is a guy you bring in in free agency after a couple of marquee blue chip names. Yeah, great. This is a guy that's been above average as a hitter each of the last four seasons. He's played some good defense this year. The Mariners need outfield bats. As we currently sit, the Mariners have one proven outfield bat. It's Julio. So they have spots to fill. So Lourdes Gurriel would absolutely help. Again, with the idea that he would be the third or so guy that you bring in in free agency.

[00:04:25] If that's the barometer. Yeah. Bye. That's funny. That's exactly what I wrote. Third signing. Like exactly what I said. The thing I think about when I look at Lourdes Gurriel Jr., he looks like bat wise and overall production wise. He looks exactly like some players the Mariners already have on their roster. Like I was thinking about it. He's, you know, about a two win player. How many at their peak or like at an average season production, give or take the year 2024?

[00:04:55] How many two win players do the Mariners have on their roster? I mean, I can think of a few. And it feels like if you're just adding onto that pile, how much does that move the needle? Right. So if he was essentially going to replace Teoscar, they were about equal war players. If you look at Teos 2023 and Lourdes Gurriel's 2023. So moving the needle, probably not that much. But again, if you bring in some true impact guys ahead of them, great.

[00:05:23] Here's what he's done at the plate in the last four years. So in 2020, which was a shortened year, of course, he put up a 134 WRC plus. So three full seasons since he's gone 107 in 2021, 115 in 2022 and 106 in 2023. That's not a guy where you say, look at the headline move we made this winter. We brought in Lourdes Gurriel. No, but if you say we got Shohei Ohtani and then we traded for another bat on the market and

[00:05:50] also brought in Lourdes Gurriel, then people would say, okay, this is a guy that could hit around the six or seven spot in the lineup and provide some true value. And that's what I think his value bring. And that's what I mean by buy. If that's his role, yeah, I'm buying. So just to clarify, my buy was as a third bat as well. When I look at him, I don't think he would be a bat people would be extremely confident in could translate to T-Mobile Park.

[00:06:18] He doesn't hit the ball the hardest. His batted ball numbers really like barrel percentage, exit velocity, a hard hit rate is a little bit higher, but his average exit velocity is expected batting and slogging. His quality of contact are right around league average. That doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence. And he also doesn't walk a lot. He does not strike out, which is a positive.

[00:06:42] But when we're talking about a mix of soft contact and not a whole lot of reaching base on a free pass, some people might be like, well, that kind of sounds like Colt Wong a little bit with maybe a slightly better exit velocity profile. So it's yeah. At the very least, he plays awesome defense in the outfield. And you would think that you're getting a very, very good defensive outfield as well, which adds on to a lot of his value.

[00:07:12] Spotrak, if you're listening to his, their prediction for what they think he'll get, they think he's going to get five years for $73.4 million, which is an AAV of $14.6 million. I don't think I'd be signing him to a five-year deal if I'm Jerry. I was going to say five years. That sounds like a lot. I would go with three. Maybe you could argue four. Five sounds like a lot for Lourdes Gurriel. If it's five, I'm selling. Yeah, same. Now, if it's three, I'm buying.

[00:07:42] And especially because he can play some solid defense and especially because, okay, so you look at his strikeout to walk numbers like you just referenced, right? He looks like in terms of those two categories, he looks like a former teammate of his and maybe future teammate in Dom Canzone, who we've highlighted, where we say, yeah, he doesn't strike out that much, which is great, but he also doesn't really walk, which is kind of an interesting profile. But you know what? The Mariners need to cut down on strikeouts. So if Lourdes Gurriel is going to come in here and he's not going to strike out, then sure.

[00:08:11] And again, with a three-year deal, yeah. Does he have the Mariners philosophy of power really, though? Because he's a dead pole power hitter. He hasn't been that much of a power guy in his career. His best power season was in the juiced ball season of 2019. Outside of that, it's about average. And when you take average power and you put it in T-Mobile Park, it usually turns into below average power. And then how valuable is your bat?

[00:08:40] When you see Teoscar Hernandez have his issues here, who hit the ball as hard as anybody in baseball or just about. Yeah. Look, we're going to have trust issues with anybody the Mariners bring in here on forward. Because if Teoscar Hernandez's profile can't beat T-Mobile Park, it's going to be hard to say that anybody you bring in of this caliber has a profile where you're confident. Yeah. Lourdes Gurriel has his flaws. There's a reason he's not getting some mega deal in free agency.

[00:09:06] But we also know this free agent class is not stacked in terms of bats. And you're going to have to pick somebody because you need offensive improvements. So when you get past, of course, Shohei and even some of the other names, the Bellingers, the Matt Chapman, some of those guys, it becomes players like Lourdes Gurriel. So you have to do something. And if you're going to look to find some improvements, is Lourdes going to put up five wins? No. Is he going to hit 35, 40 home runs? No way. But I don't know.

[00:09:36] Could he hit 17 to 18 in a Mariner season? I feel like he could. The other thing about this is if you do sign him, he's starting. He's definitely starting in the outfield. And that leaves one of Dom and Jared out of luck and out of a spot to play in if they're not DH-ing that day. I don't know which one it would be. They would have to sign it in this case. But I'm just mentioning that one of those guys would not be playing every day if Lourdes was signed.

[00:10:05] This is a guy who you would play every day. You'd run good. You'd probably hit him towards the top of the lineup. I don't know exactly which spot in the top, but he would be hitting towards the top of the lineup. And he'd be playing in left field every single day and probably playing pretty good defense. You're not going to keep him out of the lineup. No, he'd be playing defense every day. I don't know if he hits toward the top of the lineup. Again, in my world of vision, he'd hit toward the six or seven spot just because if you already

[00:10:31] have JP and Julio at one and two, and then we're fantasizing the idea of bringing in two better bats ahead of him, I feel like that pushes him down. So I feel like that six or seven spot would be about ideal for him. But yeah, he'll play the field every day. He'll probably play left field. Yeah. So that's a good point. Okay. So in summary, we would buy a three-year contract with him as the third signing. We're selling if he's getting the SPOTRAC projection, five years, $73 million, an average of a little under $15 million. That's a little high.

[00:11:00] I was honestly kind of surprised. And if he gets that money, good for him, man. He's earned it. Jung Hu Lee or Lourdes Gurriel? Lourdes Gurriel. Agreed. I mean, he's a proven big league talent. So same here. Yeah, that's not a tough decision. Before we get to our second player here, quick word from our friends over at Pogaccia's Pub 85. So Pogaccia's Pub 85 in Kirkland, east of 405. It's got some great parking. They have some really good pizza.

[00:11:29] Obviously, what can you do over there? You can watch a bunch of sports. They've got 22 TVs in the place. They've got a bunch of drink items. They've got all the drink items you could ask for. They've also got some really good food, especially that pizza. So go in there, try the pizza, watch some sports with your friends. And if you go in during the weekday during their happy hour specials, well, you can get some really good deals. Their happy hours are Monday through Friday, 2 to 6 p.m., which include $3 domestic beers,

[00:11:54] $4 Manny's Blue Moons, $4 Mac and Jacks, $4 Wells, and $4 Housewines. Go eat some great food. Have some great drinks. Watch some sports with your friends over at Pogaccia's Pub 85 in Kirkland. Okay, second player. Guy we have talked about on the program before. We're bringing him back up. Jamer Candelario. Buy or sell? I'm selling on this. He had a very good season. In the two out of the last three seasons, he's had a very good season.

[00:12:22] However, if we go look back at 22, he was actually pretty bad with a 78 WRC+. And usually, profiles like the baseball savant page I'm looking at right now with Candelario where I'm seeing a whole lot of gray and a whole lot of blue. Not good in that case for a lot of his expected stats across the board and his strikeout rate and his walk rate and his chase rate and his whiff rate. I mean, there's nothing that really stands out. So, excuse me. I blame our vacation for that.

[00:12:53] But in the end, I'm seeing a sell profile here with Candelario. Also, the Spotrak prediction, three for 34, nearly 35. That I would consider if the Mariners had an open spot. And again, he's not the premier signing. I wrote this down as I am cautiously buying. That's what I described for Jamer Candelario. Like, so this is very much on the brink of sell or buy.

[00:13:20] I called it cautiously buying because, again, the Mariners need bats. Two of the last three years, he's had three war seasons or better. He plays a corner infield spot, an area that we have talked about they may need some upgrades at. But to your point, it cannot be the headline guy they bring in. Again, it probably should be about the third guy they'd bring in offensively. And it's going to have to be the right price.

[00:13:43] Now, it's interesting that's what Spotrak, Spotrak, however you phrase that site, tabs for his contract projection. Because if it's three for 35, yeah, I'd consider that. In fact, what I wrote down here is I would give him a two-year deal. I'd consider three. Three years for about 12 million AAV. There's feels like fair value for a guy that can put up a three war season. But I'm not going much longer than that on a contract.

[00:14:09] And because of all the peripherals, where not a lot stands out and suggests there could be a real chance for some regression. Oh, and by the way, he doesn't play good defense. There are reasons to be concerned. So that's why I said I very cautiously buy. And the thing about his underlying statistics as well is that the statistics between his good seasons and his bad seasons are very similar. When we're looking at the baseball savant numbers, that's not usually a good thing. That leads to some variance.

[00:14:39] And if the Mariners go out and sign a free agent that puts up a 78 WRC plus and you gave him a three-year deal. I mean, talk about a disaster class after what they've done in the offseason in the last two seasons. And some of the guys they brought in, they can't whiff like that again. And I see too much risk in this signing right here to justify giving him a three-year deal. I think I said buy earlier. I'm kidding. I'm changing my mind.

[00:15:06] If I said anything earlier, disregard that. If you're giving him a multi-year deal, I'm selling because I don't think the upside is quite high enough to offset the risk of him potentially regressing back to what he did in 2022. Now, he would have been an excellent addition at the deadline. I thought this year, if they were going to buy, he didn't end up costing all that much.

[00:15:31] He cost, I think, two lower-level prospects from the Cubs organization to go to Chicago from Washington. So if that was the case, I would have said, yeah, you didn't have any long-term commitment to him and he would have lengthened your lineup a little bit. But in this case, if you're giving him a three-year deal, yeah, I'll pass. So a shaky offensive profile, didn't have a good year in 2022, doesn't play great defense.

[00:15:58] It sounds like we're not exactly sold on Jamer Candelario. Again, I said cautiously buy, you said sell, but I think we both have our concerns. Yeah, there's definitely some concerns here. I don't know what they would really be selling me on if they were trying to sign him. But, you know, he's out there, he's an option, so we'll see what Jerry thinks. Our third candidate for buy or sell, Lyle. Joey Votto, are you buying or selling?

[00:16:27] Woo! Look, it's a nice idea. This would probably sell some season tickets and tickets in general. It would probably lead to some very quotable interviews, as we know Joey Votto's great at that. It would certainly provide some veteran leadership in the clubhouse. But if we're talking about production, even if it was a backup first baseman and a bench bet, it's not moving the needle. I'm selling. And for the record, I think Joey Votto's a Hall of Famer. That's a whole different conversation in itself.

[00:16:55] I think he has absolutely done more than enough in his career to get into Cooperstown when it's all said and done. For what he'd do for the Mariners at age 40, not much. No, he wouldn't do much. I mean, this dude, MVP. Well, a guy who at his peak would walk more than he'd strike out and he'd hit for good power. And he played in the band box. That is great American ballpark. But he's had back-to-back sub 100 WRC plus seasons.

[00:17:23] If he were to play this season, he would be in his age 40 year. His walk rate is down. His strikeout rate is up. And he's giving every single sign of an aging first baseman. And so I just said here at the bottom, let him retire and go into the Hall of Fame without a Seattle detour. Just seems a little bit off his brand to come up here to the Pacific Northwest after being in the Midwest for so long. Just finally getting out of a 10-year deal that he signed. Oh, what?

[00:17:51] It would have been after the 2013 season would have signed that deal. So there's nothing really there for Joey unless they really think, man, he's coming here and he's going to light it up as a 40-year-old. He's missed 168 games over the last two seasons too. So the bill of health is not on his side. Like you said, there's nothing wrong with what's happening to Joey Votto. This is what happens to every great player. Father time's undefeated.

[00:18:20] So he's just starting to tail off as his career is aging toward the end. And he's played 17 years. He's now 40 years old. I know he wants to play one more season like he's talked about, which is why we're sitting here talking about it. Saying that whether it's with the Reds or not, I'd like to give it one final go. With the Mariners, I don't know if that makes a lot of sense. That might be a guy where if they signed him, he wouldn't make it a full season on the roster.

[00:18:44] Would it change your mind if I said his projected contract was one year, five and a half million? One war is worth what? About eight million? Do we think Joey Votto even puts up one war or a 0.7 war in 2024? I'm not sure. No, he doesn't. He was worth exactly zero last year and he was worth negative one the year before that. And again, that's in limited time with missing 168 games.

[00:19:10] It is pretty remarkable that he had near a career season in 2021 when he was 37. But again, when you look at his two seasons after that, he's just doing what every great baseball player does. He's aging with time and it's just starting to come to the end from him. Maybe somebody signs him. Maybe there's some contender out there that would pick him up and see if he's got any juice left for one final year. I just don't think it makes a lot of sense for the Mariners. Again, it'd be fun. It's a nice idea. And he'd probably give some great quotes in interviews.

[00:19:39] Maybe on some of the mini mic stuff, if we ever asked him to do it, he'd give us some laughs. But on-field production, yeah, I've got to sell. So selfishly for us, we'll say bye. But for the Seattle Mariners, we're going to say sell. Just for a tiny bit of context. So he struck out 25.5% of the time last season in 2023. At his peak, he's striking out anywhere from 16% to 11% of the time.

[00:20:07] So just want to give you some context of where his bat speed is at. It is not at his peak levels. And his baseball savant page also at his peak would be highlighted in all red. And this year it was no comment. No comment for Joey. I don't think he wants us sharing those numbers, especially as someone who probably looks at his baseball savant page quite often. If I'm going to say he, I would say among players in baseball, he probably looks at it more than everyone else.

[00:20:35] Oh, he's a big Sabermetrics guy. He's probably on the Mount Rushmore of guys that would look at their baseball savant page. Him, Brent Rooker. There's probably a couple others. Off the rip, I don't know if I can give you four this second. But there's definitely some guys that look at it a lot. Votto would be one. Look, we're big Joey Votto guys. DJ and I both think he's a Hall of Famer. But again, for what he'd do for the Mariners, it just wouldn't make much sense.

[00:21:00] It was my favorite segment ever on MLB Network when he was just sort of reciting Ted Williams' book on hitting to, I think it was to Brian Kenny. That was fabulous television. And I'm sure every old person watching their TV there was like, uh, what? What are you talking about, dude? And that's Joey Votto. He'd be a great guest on this podcast, I would say that. So, Joey, when you retire, we got you. We got your media appearances locked in right here on this show.

[00:21:28] Before we get to our World Series preview, let's hear a little bit about Simply Seattle. We're happy to work with Simply Seattle. And if you want to find all the best Pacific Northwest gear, Huskies, Mariners, Seahawks, some throwback-themed gear, you see those new throwback uniforms, Lyle, that were debuting this week. And now the Seahawks are going to get two weeks of that throwback gear. Well, Simply Seattle has some of the best gear around.

[00:21:53] Again, for Huskies, Mariners, Seahawks, Sonics, Pacific Northwest-themed clothes, gifts, all those other things. So, if you want that and you want to get 15% off, you can use our code MARINE15 for 15% off your order at SimplySeattle and SimplySeattle.com. Let's get to our World Series preview, Lyle. Do we just start off by saying, for the second time, man, this is fucking sad?

[00:22:23] It is. It is sad. And again, it has caused a rift on social media. I wouldn't expect anything less. Because there are players on the Diamondbacks that now people are trying to argue the Mariners should have kept. And the Rangers, a lot of Mariners fans think, were the model of success. And I can't stress this enough. The Rangers very easily could have spent all that money on Xander Bogarts and Javi Baez. They signed the best two free agents. And it's worked out. But that doesn't mean it is the only way to build a roster. Credit to them.

[00:22:52] They have done what they needed to do to build a World Series contending roster. It doesn't mean it's the only way. I'm just going to start with that. I will say, it is kind of interesting that we did post a clip today, recording here on Thursday. When you're listening to this, it'll be yesterday. When we posted our show clip from Wednesday's episode, where you and I were saying, this is the worst World Series for Mariners fans. You've checked our comments, right? I have. Still a lot of Astros in there, which I can't say I'm shocked.

[00:23:21] I'm not shocked. But I thought there would be a little more agreement. Well, people just really don't like the Astros. I guess we know that. I just, my take on it, and I think yours too, is we've just gotten used to the Astros being in the World Series by now and this core of players having success where it just is a little painful to see another team in the AL West not name the Mariners, pass the Astros by in less time than the Mariners tried to do it. That's where it stems from.

[00:23:51] Like, basically admitting defeat. Slight detour from our World Series preview. I know you were just floored that the Astros threw at another player. We forgot to mention that on Wednesday's episode. Absolutely floored that they threw at somebody after pimping a home run. What? Them? No. No, they didn't. He never throws at people. Dusty Baker? One of the most respectable guys ever.

[00:24:18] There's so many people out there too that are saying there's no way this was on purpose because why in a game this tight, this close, would they be throwing at guys? Would they be wasting opportunities to put guys on base? Well, if you watch the Houston Astros ever, like, do they seem to give a single fuck about that? No, because they do it all the time. And then their broadcast team likes to do things like blame other teams and say, oh, people like the Mariners, they have a reputation for stuff like this. It's like, oh, that's funny.

[00:24:47] I just looked at my watch and then scrolled through some past box scores and the Mariners have been hit by the Astros double the amount of times. Well, how is that possible? Oh, in the last three years, they've been hit double the time. Yeah, no, I'm sorry. Unless this gets literally proven to be false, I am 100% believing this was on purpose. At least Dusty Baker retired. And that reputation will... We'll... See ya. See ya. Okay, let's actually get to the World Series preview.

[00:25:16] So game one is, as of recording, it'll be today. Today on Friday. And... Very fascinating storylines because these two teams are really built differently, right? The Diamondbacks are a... They're a throwback. They're a speed. They're a defense team. The Rangers are a slugging team. What are your early impressions of this World Series? That is something to note about the D-backs.

[00:25:46] They're bottom 10 in payroll. So again, like, there are more than one... There's more than one way to build a roster. But, okay, World Series talk. Rangers have the offensive advantage. I don't think that's any question. I would give the Rangers the advantage in the rotation. Not by as much as you think, but slightly. And then the Diamondbacks absolutely have the better bullpen. And that trio of bullpen guys that have kind of carried them through the postseason here with Thompson, Ginkle, and obviously Paul Seawalds have really made leaps and bounds of difference for them.

[00:26:15] So that's where I look at it off first glance. And I think the Rangers are going to have the advantage. But the Diamondbacks have been the underdog in every series they've played. And it hasn't mattered. So even though logic's going to say pick the Rangers, you just don't know. There's a couple of notes here. This is the third World Series ever featuring two wildcard teams. Arizona's trying to become the second team ever with the 1987 Minnesota Twins to win the World Series with a negative run differential.

[00:26:45] And what I think is going against the D-backs here a little bit for how their roster is built. Postseason, for the last probably 10 years, has been built around hitting a bunch of home runs. Well, I don't know. How do they outslug the Texas Rangers in this series? If we're just stacking up bat by bat in the lineup, there's no way someone's taking the Diamondbacks to out-home or the Rangers when we look at it that way.

[00:27:11] The postseason success has just slanted so much more towards the teams that hit a bunch of home runs. If you were to compare position by position for Diamondbacks, Rangers, oh, let's compare the two catchers, first baseman, second baseman, etc., etc. I'm trying to even think about how many Diamondbacks you take over Rangers in the lineup. I think obviously you take Corbin Carroll. Left field, maybe you take Lourdes. Maybe. That might be a wash.

[00:27:41] Yeah, it's not a lot. I mean, maybe you take... Actually, no, I was going to say Cattell over... No, never mind. Because I was going to say, do you take Cattell, but over Marcus Semien? No. So, yeah. It might just be Corbin. Yeah, it might just be Corbin. So, yeah, that does not give the Diamondbacks much of an advantage. Although, you could have said the same thing when they played the Phillies, who are pretty similar to the Rangers. They're slug a ton, have some pretty good starting pitching.

[00:28:07] And the D-backs' philosophy and the way they've built their team doesn't feel like it's going to match up all that great. Didn't seem to matter because the Diamondbacks won anyway. So, it feels like almost another Phillies series in that sense where the Rangers are going to be favored and they play modern baseball where they slug, they pitch well. Their bullpen's obviously not good, but that's beside the point here. But the Diamondbacks kind of defied logic. So, can they do it again? It's kind of been a team of destiny here in the postseason. So, maybe.

[00:28:36] This pitching also lines up very, very well for the Texas Rangers. They're going to get four starts out of Evaldi and Jordan Montgomery, who have just been lights out in these playoffs. And just to mask that bullpen, getting the length out of those two has just been immense. They both tossed over 25 innings and barely have ERAs under two. I wrote it down and I lost where I put it. But they've both been unbelievable here. 2-4-2 ERA in 26 innings for Evaldi.

[00:29:04] And then Jordan Montgomery, a 2-1-6 ERA in 25 innings. And those two are going to start four of the seven games for the Texas Rangers. And I assume we're going to see one or both of them out of the bullpen at some point. Now, the only question for Texas. If Texas just had a third starter in the series, oh, I don't know, like Jacob DeGrom, it would be really hard to pick the Diamondbacks because that's six starts from the two who have pitched very well and one of the greatest pitchers of all time.

[00:29:32] But the problem is that's three games for the Diamondbacks that could get Max Scherzer, who's gotten blown up in these playoffs. For Andrew Heaney, who has been awful down the stretch. I mean awful. And then perhaps Dane Dunning, maybe? It could be someone else. It could be a bullpen day for the Rangers, too, if that's what they decide to go with as well. So those three games right there are so crucial to the Diamondbacks. No, sorry.

[00:29:58] So crucial to the Texas Rangers that it's going to be hard to win the series unless they manage to win every single one of those Montgomery or Evaldi starts, which that's difficult. You can't always win all of those. Well, I was going to say, you kind of reference how, oh, if the Rangers had DeGrom, one of the best pitchers of all time, this series would be different. The Rangers do have one of the best pitchers of all time as their third guy in this World Series. The problem is he doesn't look like it these days.

[00:30:27] Max Scherzer is probably pitching injured. He has not been built up and he has not looked good in the postseason at all. So behind Montgomery and Evaldi, it causes questions. And truthfully, if John Gray was healthy, this could be a different story, too. It doesn't even have to be DeGrom. If they just had John Gray, this could be different. But they don't. And because of that lack of third starter and guy you can rely on, it does give the Diamondbacks a little bit of leeway back into this race here. Because, look, Brandon fought for being a third starter.

[00:30:57] He's been really good. I think he has absolutely penciled himself in as their three starter going forward behind Gallon and Merrill Kelly. And for what he's done in the postseason, despite some struggles during the regular season, he's been awesome. Zach Gallon's been surprisingly bad in these playoffs. A 5-2-4 ERA. And both his starts in the National League Championship Series were pretty atrocious. The Diamondbacks are facing a different beast in this offense with the Texas Rangers.

[00:31:23] I mean, the Rangers are probably going to score double-digit runs at least twice in this World Series. I would say that's probably pretty safe bet. At least twice in this World Series. They are just going to be on fire and they're going to light up Diamondbacks pitching. So that means when Zach Gallon's taking the mound and he has by far, no offense to Merrill Kelly, the most upside and the best stuff of anyone in this Diamondbacks rotation, he's going to have to shove. Because otherwise you're kind of teetering on the edge against a lineup that will punish any mistake.

[00:31:51] If you're relying on Merrill Kelly and Brandon Fahou, in these playoffs, haven't seen an offense quite like that. I mean, yeah, because the D-backs did not... No, the D-backs didn't have to play the Braves. That's right. They played the Dodgers, who stunk. Yeah, and they played the Phillies, who were not the offense, at least in the regular season, that the Braves were. But that is a tough lineup to carve through. And credit to Arizona. They did do it. But nobody in that lineup has been as hot as Adolis Garcia.

[00:32:20] That guy's the hottest hitter on the planet right now, who doesn't look like he can be stopped in any way, shape, or form. That's what Corey Seager looked like in the first series for the Rangers. Well, I guess the Orioles series, I should say. And Marcus Semien hasn't really gotten going this postseason. So it feels like only a matter of time before he starts to click. And maybe the World Series is going to be his time to shine. Because it felt like it was Corey Seager in the wildcard round and ALDS. It was absolutely Adolis Garcia in the ALCS. And maybe it's going to be Semien's turn here in the World Series.

[00:32:49] But point being, this Rangers lineup is not easy to go through. And the D-backs are going to have to bring their A game. And that's obviously a simple, cliche statement. But you're in the World Series. You're going to be underdogs. You're outmatched in a lot of ways. You're going to have to play close to perfect baseball. How many games are we going to see Kevin Ginkle and Paul Seewald in? Six? I was going to say all of them. And probably Ryan Thompson, too. Yeah. It's going to be.

[00:33:17] And it's going to be the same thing for Jose LeClerc on the other side. I'm digging through the Rangers' bullpen to see who had a good playoffs. I mean, it's been LeClerc. They really leaned on him late in games in the ALCS. And then after that, it's, ooh. Story of the season for them. They had LeClerc and absolutely nobody else. And we kind of talked about, would this bullpen eventually come back to bite the Rangers in the ass at some point? And truthfully, it did in the ALCS. Because what happened in that game five?

[00:33:46] Altuve sucked the life out of that building in Texas, took the lead on that go-ahead home run. And it looked like everything was kind of shaping the way of Houston. Because they were going back to Minute Maid Park with the Astros up 3-2 when Altuve took that bullpen deep and won them that game. I thought that was going to be it for Texas. But they managed to come back. So now the question remains again. Is that bullpen going to hold up for them for another four to seven games? Or is it going to totally collapse?

[00:34:15] Because outside LeClerc, they don't have anybody they can really rely on. In fact, Raldis Chapman in multiple outings this postseason has looked just awful. Yeah. He's looking not quite in his prime. I'll say that much. Can I throw out one more take here? Go ahead. And this goes back to some of the starting pitcher talk. So the Jordan-Montgomery trade saved the Rangers' entire season. I'm going as far to say as if they don't make that trade, not only are they absolutely

[00:34:43] not in the World Series right now, I don't even think they get in the playoffs without Jordan-Montgomery. Because they don't make that trade. You have next to no starting pitching. Scherzer, hurt. Gray, hurt. Heaney, bad. Dunning, whatever. You would have had Evaldi, who was also hurt for points of the second half with a lot of his velo down. And then nobody behind him. So Jordan-Montgomery, the way he's pitched, not only since they traded for him the last two months of the season, but in the postseason too.

[00:35:11] I don't even think the Rangers are in the playoffs right now without him. So for everything they did in the offseason and building up their farm system, without Montgomery, I don't even think they're close to the spot they're in right now. And that's why you buy at the deadline. Because you gotta supplement your weakness. And it just so happens that Jordan-Montgomery, they caught him at one of the best stretches, if not the best stretch of his career. Mm-hmm. Oh, he's been great. This is the best stretch of his career. Yeah. Do you have a prediction? I said Rangers in six.

[00:35:41] And again, this could be totally wrong. I'm trying to use logic here. Even though logic has not worked at all when talking about the Diamondbacks this whole season because they've defied every series they played in. But yeah, I'm going to say Rangers in six. This series does defy all logic though. I mean, we have a five seed versus a six seed in the World Series. I have Rangers in seven.

[00:36:06] I don't see how the Rangers offense will not outslug the Diamondbacks over the course of a seven game series. It seems pretty hard to think anything else because they have done it to literally every other pitching staff in baseball. We don't get many game sevens in the World Series. So if this World Series wins seven, oh, sign me right up. I was even trying to think about the last time we had one. There was 2019. And then other than that, it didn't happen in any of the years past that. Didn't happen in 2018.

[00:36:36] It would happen in 2017. So yeah, it's been a few years since it's happened. I guess it happened in 2016 too. Okay. So let me rephrase. In the last few years, there have not been many game sevens. And who doesn't love a game seven, especially when you're a neutral fan? So sure. Sign me up for seven games. Yeah, let's get it. It's good for TV ratings too, because I did see some people that were worried about the television ratings with a Diamondbacks Rangers World Series. Where are the Yankees and the Dodgers?

[00:37:04] You know what Rob Manfred was thinking as soon as the Diamondbacks won the National League pennant. He's sitting there. I mean, we call him Rob Manfred. Obviously, we're talking about Rob Manfred, commissioner of baseball. You know this dude was looking at his TV and inside his lair, his man cave, just absolutely pissed. He's like, why is some dude named Kevin Ginkle on my TV right now over Bryce Harper? Sorry, Rob.

[00:37:33] He should have called a fix in. He works with the umpires. Throw him a sweeter deal for their union and they'll throw the game for you. Yeah, exactly. Well, it should be a good World Series. It's a unique World Series and not one we get all that often, but it should be a fun one. So let's see how right our predictions are. And definitely not one we would have predicted. But no, here we are not not in a million years. OK, let's get to speak your mind. Speak your mind, Spock.

[00:38:03] That would be unwise. What is necessary is never unwise. What are we thinking about this week? What is Halloween next week? And I was curious what your thoughts of this is. And I think it's different for everyone. Like, is Halloween like, is it still like, is it an adult holiday? Is it truly?

[00:38:31] Does it depend on who I'm talking to? Because I feel like Halloween is an adult holiday. But I don't feel like it's an adult holiday here in the middle of nowhere, Oregon. I mean, if you have things to do on Halloween weekend, then it's more of a holiday because that's for adults or people our age in our 20s. That's what people usually do to celebrate Halloween. They're usually not doing anything crazy if it's in the middle of the week, right? Like on October 31st, if it's on some Tuesday or Wednesday.

[00:39:01] Because what day is it this year? Tuesday, right? It's a Tuesday. Yeah. So people would be celebrating this weekend. But the problem is when you work in sports, like I work both Saturday and Sunday. So, so much for so much for celebrating. So I guess in my current position, it's not really a holiday, which is kind of annoying. I'm not going to lie. And I'm going to open Instagram this weekend and I'm going to have some FOMO, I'm sure, of people having fun on Halloween. And I'm working. But, you know, that's what I've signed up for so far. So that it is what it is.

[00:39:30] But I just thought it was kind of curious because I know that I'm going to be thinking about that this weekend of, man, should I be celebrating this? Should I be dressing up as something and going to a party or something or going out to a Halloween themed bar? I remember our senior year at ASU. I mean, I went out to Mill Avenue on Halloween and holy shit, there's so many fucking people outside. And I would say that would probably be a pretty fun place to spend Halloween this year. But unfortunately, I'm about a thousand miles away from Mill Avenue. So that won't be happening.

[00:39:59] I think even less about the fact that you're working and more, even if you weren't working, like what in the world is going on for Halloween weekend in Corvallis, like you were saying? College parties, but I'm not in college anymore. So it's kind of weird for me to show up. So if that's not a notion to eventually branch out and go somewhere else, I don't know what is. Yeah, I think if you were in a major city, it would be much different. And if you weren't working, there would be plenty to do.

[00:40:28] So I think it's a kid's holiday first. I think first and foremost, it is a holiday for trick-or-treaters and people like that. Adults can celebrate and have fun with it. But it does depend on your location for sure, your occupation for sure. And if you really enjoy Halloween or not, because some people may shrug their shoulders about it. I feel like I remember hearing some people talk. I can't remember it was people our age talking about that.

[00:40:57] Like Halloween's an overrated holiday. I'm not quite sure if I'd call it overrated. I just probably say it's like to each and everyone's taste. I can't remember exactly if it was New Year's or if it was Halloween. I can't remember. Regardless, I'm probably going to have some FOMO this weekend. So it is what it is though. I mean, I like Thanksgiving a lot better than Halloween. I don't do that much for Halloween. So that's my take. I mean, personally, I would like to.

[00:41:26] But again, my options are limited because there's a 7.30 p.m. kickoff on Saturday. So that's going to be the day most everyone will be celebrating Halloween. That's a 20-something year old. And I will be watching college football instead. Yeah, but you're watching a playoff contender. That is true. That is true, man. It is getting the nitty-gritty. I can add this onto your speaker mind. I didn't really think.

[00:41:51] When I accepted this job to come down here and cover Oregon State sports and work at a radio station. And, you know, busiest time of year is always football season. People are super into football, obviously. College football is a big deal. I definitely didn't think I'd be covering a potential playoff contender. That's for sure. And, of course, those words can come back to bite me as they go down as only a field goal favorite to the desert in Tucson this weekend. So that'll be kind of interesting. They win this weekend. I mean, people got to prep themselves.

[00:42:21] They do. We got to check in on Matt Calkins, too, actually, if they win this weekend. Because then we're really getting into the good stuff. Then I might have to hit him up and remind him, hey, by the way, my Venmo is TJ-Matthewson. If you feel like paying up. The ever gargantuan sum of five bucks. Yeah. Well, you know, that buys me a drink down here. So that works. It does.

[00:42:48] I guess I would also caution Beaver fans if they're out there listening that, you know, their final two games are Oregon and Washington. Well, I guess in order, Washington and Oregon. But yeah. Yeah. Well, you got it. You got to win big games to get in the playoff. You can't just beat like a you can't only and then after that, obviously, they'd have to win the the Pac-12 championship as well against another probably one of those two teams. So they probably have to beat those two teams that combined three times in three weeks to make it, which would that would end up probably being three top ten wins in a row.

[00:43:18] But to make the playoff, that's what you got to do. You got to beat top ten teams to make it. So that's what it is. You do. Okay. My speak your mind this week. I don't know if you saw this article or not, but I saw it this morning and my jaw just hit the floor. And I said, you know what? I'm going to save this and I'm going to bring it all up on the podcast here on speak your mind. So this was written in the L.A.

[00:43:43] Times and the title of the article, or at least the tweet was the Dodgers need an owner who treats them as a passion, not just one of the countless assets under his control. Some thoughts on the team's out of touch owner, Mark Walter. I swore this was clickbait. And then I click on it.

[00:44:04] And the article absolutely was because this entire article is ripping an owner of a team that wins 100 plus games every year is the model of success of the last decade. Honestly, outside of Houston is the best franchise of the last decade has superstars throughout the lineup spends in free agency makes huge trades like is a destination spot for players. Great reputation. Great farm system. What the literal fuck are we talking about? I'm glad you haven't seen this yet.

[00:44:34] I can tell by your facial expression. You can go read this article later if you want. I could not believe this was actually written. It's like, dude, try being a fan of a team that has, I don't know, John Stanton is their owner. If you want to go even more extreme, John Fisher of the A's, the Castellinis of the Reds, Dick Monfort of the Rockies, the Orioles owners. You can go on and on and on and on. The Dodgers might have the best owner in baseball, or if he's not, he's in the top five.

[00:45:03] What are we talking about here? Talking about, oh, he's out of touch and treats them not as a passion, just as an asset. Get out of here with that, dude. What a terrible take. Speaking of Matt Calkins, you remember when he mentioned, it's like, sometimes it's a little tough to come up with, what, 300 bylines a year? 300 titles, 300 ideas. I think this might be one of those for whatever his name is at the LA Times.

[00:45:31] I don't even need to dive into all the Dodgers' accomplishments to say their owner doesn't care enough. The Dodgers are, I believe, the only organization in baseball that has a chef truck with every single one of their minor league teams. A full-time chef truck that follows the team wherever they go. So all of their players are fed, what, three meals a day, eat healthy food, get protein shakes, all these things.

[00:46:01] Everything they could ever want with a chef truck for their minor league players. Do I even need to say anything else? Nobody else does that. Oh, a lot of the meal plans in the minor leagues for a bunch of these teams are terrible. Like, absolute shit. Yet the Dodgers have chefs that travel with them. Yeah, that's an owner who doesn't care. Doesn't spend resources. Doesn't, you know, tries to penny pinch.

[00:46:28] I really would love to see Dodger fans have to be fans of a team like the Mariners, the A's, the Reds, the Rockies, the Orioles, any of those teams, for even a day. And see what you think of their owner. You know what Mariners fans have the misfortune of? Our owner lives rent-free up here in all of our heads. Like, all the time. Because what we don't have the ability to do is be the Dodgers. You know why? 100,000% because our owner will not spend money.

[00:46:56] And there's a lot of teams out there that feel the same way. Get out of here with the Dodgers. Owner doesn't care. I think it was within the past, like, 10 years. The Dodgers once carried a $300 million payroll and $100 million of that was dead. $100 million was not on their roster. And they were willing to shelf that price to do what they needed to do. I, like, what's Mookie Betts' contract again?

[00:47:22] Oh, it's 13 years for, I believe, just short of $370 million. Yeah. Doesn't care. Here's some of the players the Dodgers have had on their team over the last decade, just to rattle off a few. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Scherzer, Trey Turner, Cody Bellinger. I guess Cody never got a big contract. But Clayton Kershaw, multiple big contracts. Who am I forgetting? There's so, like, there's, I mean, there's just a few. Oh, Ryu. Yeah.

[00:47:49] But you could list a ton of guys who have gotten massive contracts on this team or A-level superstars that have been Dodgers. Oh, they traded for Manny Machado. There's another trade. They have had star after star after star after star. And, like, A-list stars that other teams could only dream of having. But no. Oh, oh, and by the way, that Shohei Otani guy, yeah, he might be a Dodger here soon. But no, they don't care. They don't want to win. That's a good dig, dog. I'm glad you're up on reading the LA Times. Oh, my God.

[00:48:18] I saw somebody retweet it today. And I was, like I said, jaw was on the floor. I was like, this cannot be a real article. And who wrote that article? His name was Dylan Hernandez. That was the name of the author. So it didn't quite get ratioed to the level I was hoping it would get ratioed at. However, there are people saying exactly what we were saying in the comments, being saying things like, I know this isn't the Dodgers talking about their owner. Yeah.

[00:48:48] Incredible stuff. That's a good poll. We try here, don't we? Well, if you haven't read this article and you haven't heard about it and you're listening to it, I encourage you to go read it. Because if you think we're exaggerating, we are not. So there's some homework for you. Okay. I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. You want to listen to the full form podcast. You can listen on Apple, Spotify, Google, and Amazon.

[00:49:14] If you're listening to us, follow the show, download our episodes, leave us a five-star review. The reviews, the downloads, they help us out a ton. So make sure to go do that. Watch us on YouTube too. We've got a full video side to the podcast on YouTube. You can like, comment, subscribe, turn the notification bells on over there. All those things help us out too. And then follow us on social media. We're on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.