Episode 410: Have The Mariners Finally Turned The Corner?

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 410 of the Marine Layer Podcast. The Mariners sweep the Diamondbacks over the weekend. They've now won six in a row. Lyle and I will react and give our biggest storylines from the weekend. Reminder to you guys before we start this podcast, just make sure you do us a big favor. Go download these episodes if you're listening on the audio side and go rate and review five stars. If you're watching on YouTube, make sure to hit that subscribe button. You see it right in front of you. Go hit subscribe. Also leave

[00:00:27] a like and drop a comment. On our website, marinelayerpod.com, you can find everything. You'll find our episodes there, Patreons there, Podcast Merch is there if you want some of your own Podcast Merch. We've had people ask us about it a bunch in the last couple weeks. Again, it's on our site, MarinLayerPod.com. Then you can find us on social media everywhere. We're posting content

[00:00:47] every day at MarinLayerPod. Let's get it rolling. And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording here

[00:01:10] on Sunday evening, May 31st. Exactly one week ago, we said the Mariners are going to need to take action to turn around their season. And one week later, they haven't lost. They barely allowed more than two runs in a game, and they have their longest winning streak of the season. Hmm. Thank goodness. And they've won two series in a row again. Wow. Just give it up.

[00:01:40] Yeah. What's next? Three series wins in a row? Man, that'd be like the old line from Major League Two, except you use it with series instead of games. All right, boys, we won a series this past week. You win another, that's two in a row. You win three, that's called a winning streak.

[00:02:01] It has happened before. And the Mets, looking at their roster, I'll just say this is probably a team the Mariners should beat, which means they're getting swept. What if they just keep the momentum up? I'm serious. Like, they got, they lost two or three to the Royals, a team 10 games under 500 a week ago, and then they played the first place A's, and they played the Diamondbacks, who had won

[00:02:31] 11 of 13 games entering the series, and they swept both of them. So now that they're playing a team that's chronically underperforming, and a team that Frank the Tank has called a bunch of losers, they're gonna get swept. Which, by the way, happy Frank the Tank series, Teej. And shout out to us that we had him on this podcast before the Mets series last year. We did. I think that's one of the greatest achievements we've ever had as a podcast.

[00:03:00] Just to have the timing work out for that, it's pretty great. We didn't make it work out this year, but the 10 minutes that Frank the Tank was on this podcast, I think, were maybe the 10 greatest we've ever had on here. Oh, I mean, he immediately said the Mariners were sweeping the Mets, and they didn't. He was wrong. Hashtag Frank was wrong. Frank was not right.

[00:03:23] Frank this year, though? He was right. Oh, yeah. By the way, the Mariners in this series against the Mets are facing... Well, they'll get Freddy Peralta in the finale, but they're facing Austin Warren on Monday, who's literally thrown 10... Hang on. Who? Yeah. He's thrown 10 innings all year in seven relief appearances, so... It's a bullpen game for the Mets on Monday. Correct. Yeah. And then Tuesday

[00:03:50] is literally TBD. They don't even know who's starting Tuesday. Well, the Mets were smart. They'd put a yank Sean Minaya out of the bullpen, and they'd start him. Oh, yeah. Just put a lefty out there. So, I don't see why the Mariners can't make this three series wins in a row. I mean, the Mets are really bad, man. They have not played well. They're not going to have Lindor. They're not going to have Polo. They're not going to have Luis Robert. I don't see why the Mariners shouldn't win this.

[00:04:17] What's up? They don't hit. No, they really don't hit. I mean, they've been, by the numbers, it was one of the worst offenses in baseball. Mm-hmm. So, yeah, you would think that a Mariners pitching staff, which, by the way, after this weekend, Lyle, now ranks fifth in baseball in ERA. This team never makes any sense. It really doesn't. Again, a week ago, we're talking about what action has to be taken, the way you started this episode. They don't do

[00:04:44] anything, and then they win every game since that podcast. Six straight. They got to cut they got to cut Ref Snyder. They got to call up Cade, who, by the way, spun another unbelievable start this week. Shout out to Cade Anderson. They need to fire assistant coaches. They need to fire Dan. And they just ripped off six in a row. The action was taken on the baseball instead of on the people in the roster. Colt Emerson seemed to help. I'll tell you that.

[00:05:13] But, I mean, Homer's... He's been on fire. Yeah. I mean, Homer's on Saturday. He... What else did he do? I mean, he's just had a really good week. Like, his OPS is sitting well above 800 right now. And he's been in the majors now for, what, two and a half weeks? Colt did something I didn't expect this weekend, Lyle, when he hit that home run. He bat-flipped the shit out of it. Colt Emerson, Mr. Professional. Good. Hit that pitch. Kept the bat up here with his right hand, and then went,

[00:05:42] flipped it up in the air. I hate to say it, but I saw Major League Baseball's Twitter account and some other people syncing up the swings. Did look a little grippy-esque. No, it didn't. Go to Major League Baseball's Twitter. I saw the video. The swings don't look that alike. It's just the follow-through and the finish. Colt doesn't normally follow through like that, though.

[00:06:08] Which is why it shocked me, and I think a lot of people saw the resemblance. Because, yeah, he doesn't. Usually, he's got a pretty flat swing, and he just does a pretty standard follow-through. But he really let it rip on that one. Do you remember the last time, if I'm remembering this correctly, the last time Major League Baseball did that for a Mariner who hit a home run? Oh, I think it was Dee Gordon. Exactly. Did that work out?

[00:06:34] I think Colt's going to be a little bit more of an impact bat than Dee Gordon. I would agree, too, but safe to say that Dee Gordon after that didn't really resemble Ken Griffey Jr. Well, maybe Colt will do so more. Fun fact, that was a home run that won me money because right after that, one of our friends came to me and said, Dee Gordon's going to hit 10 home runs this year. I said, no, he's not.

[00:07:02] The friend made the bet to me, and Dee Gordon, I think, hit one home run the rest of the season. And then also walked like three total times. Very much like Ken Griffey Jr. Uh-huh. Dude, I'm serious. I think Dee Gordon had less than 10 walks all year that year. I mean, he never walked. What year is that? Oh, that was 2019? 18. 18. 18. Let me see this. I don't know what his walk rate was, but his total walks were so low.

[00:07:32] It was nine walks. I'm serious. He walked nine times. Nine times, as they like to say in Paris. In 600 plate appearances. That is a walk rate of 1.5%. Dude. And this is where, when someone says, oh yeah, Dee's doing pretty good because he's hitting 268. It's like, yeah, man. He has nine walks and 588 plate appearances.

[00:08:01] He's not getting on base that much. I was at the game at the end of the year where I think they officially got eliminated in 2018. I think they were playing the A's. I saw Dee walk and homer in the same game. And whoever I was with, I turned next to them and say, that right there, what you just saw, is rarer than the moon landing. Dee Gordon just walked and homered in the same game. I think you saw maybe the only game in his career where he did that.

[00:08:31] I don't even need to look that up. I just flat out think that's true. It has to be true. Yeah. I mean, maybe it happened one to two other times, but it can't be many times. Dee Gordon, good dude though. I mean, he was always liked. He was always liked in that clubhouse as far as we know. Hey, watch some of our bullpen banner stuff. Shout out to him. I was going to say, he's one of the few former Mariners that actually watches our content. He's watching on both channels, I think.

[00:09:01] Yeah, true. True, true. He'll leave us comments sometimes. So shout out to Dee. It is a goal, I think, of ours to have him on at some point. Yeah, hopefully to do both. Yeah. The trivia and the pod. And the fact since Gene Segura told the whole story about the fight in the clubhouse, we have to ask him about it. Listen, if Dee's willing to talk about it, especially since it's been about eight years now, brother, like open platform. Yeah.

[00:09:28] Eight years and the other guys already essentially told the entire story of it on another podcast. Right. But Gene was known for being the bad guy in that. Oh, yeah. Yeah. And it's known now that he was not the easiest person to deal with in that clubhouse by any stretch. Mm-hmm. So, Dee, the platform is open for you to come tell some stories here on the podcast. Yeah.

[00:09:55] What are some takeaways you had from this week, this weekend? Well, we talked about Colt a little bit. And obviously, again, he had another really good week. And to see him be far from overmatched in Major League Baseball is pretty impressive. By the way, he's really not striking out. Do we think the product of the higher strikeout rate in Tacoma might have just been the wrist injury? Totally possible.

[00:10:22] I also think it's possible he might have made an adjustment in Tacoma to sort of limit those strikeouts. Like that sample we gave when he got called up. What was it? The last three weeks? Last two weeks in Tacoma? He'd been performing really well and the strikeout rate was really down. It's possible that he makes either a mechanical change or a bit of an approach change down in Tacoma to limit the strikeouts and he's bringing it to the Major Leagues. That also works. Yeah.

[00:10:52] But also, he could just be comfortable. I mean, some guys just figure it out. He's in the big leagues. The stress of getting moved up is gone. And he's just playing like he has in the minors for the most part, which is why the strikeouts were such an oddity this year. Right. Maybe his strikeouts were just due to the fact he was A, hurt, B, pressing and wanting to come up. So, as much as Colt will tell you, yep, just focused on winning AAA games. Wherever they send me, I'm good. I'm good, coach.

[00:11:20] In the back of his mind, he's like, I'd love to be in the big leagues. Especially after he got the contract. I mean, that's only natural. I will say, to be fair, Lyle, his strikeout rate for the season is still 28%. Oh. A couple days ago, it was at like 21. I guess this is what happens with a small sample. He's got 43 plate appearances. And then after the game today, I don't know why it's not showing me the live update.

[00:11:50] Yeah. 43 plate appearances. It can swing a little bit. Sure. But he's been good. Because you have a WRC Plus of 142. You can strike out 28% of the time and be just fine. What stood out to me when I'm watching this, this was sort of something that just came to fruition. Especially this weekend against the Diamondbacks. The Mariners didn't really run into this against the A's. Because the A's intentionally did not let this happen.

[00:12:19] The more and more the Mariners face right-handed pitching, the more confident I feel in this line-up. Like, the one sort of like little X and L that the Mariners have gotten right this year. They haven't gotten a lot of them right. Because we talked about the defense, the base running, the managing, some other decision-making, the other side of the platoon. Those have not been very good. The left-handed platoon bats in this lineup are some of the best work that this front office has done.

[00:12:48] They believed in Luke Raley. They believed in Dom Canzone. And they were like, these guys are going to hit right-handed pitching all season this year. And these two have been two of the best corner outfield bats in baseball. If you adjust for their plate appearances because they're only playing half the time. When they have played, they've been about as good as you could ask for any player to play in Major League Baseball. That's a huge win. It's funny.

[00:13:16] Canzone was on a stretch there for a couple weeks where things really weren't going perfect. He hadn't had a home run in a while. And I was starting to wonder, are we seeing the downturn again? Are we seeing him play hot for the first month or so of the season? And then he starts to tail off the wrong way. Kind of like he did toward the end of the year last year and certainly in the postseason. No, he really didn't. I mean, because then you look at what he's done in the last week. Especially what he did this past weekend. Oh, he totally turned it on again.

[00:13:45] Here we sit. And right when I started to think there could be some questions about can this canzone thing last. 826 OPS. I mean, he continues to just crush righties. And he'll take it. And then Luke Raley's been even better. Yeah. And we know how good he's been. No, he should not be hitting lefties. I appreciate everybody that wanted to talk to us at the park this weekend about, well, can we just play Raley more? Can we let him play every day? No.

[00:14:12] I can absolutely promise everybody Luke Raley would not be running a 900 OPS if he was facing all the lefties. I don't even know if his OPS would be at 800 if he was facing all the lefties. But because they've utilized his strengths perfectly, he is now looking like what Kerry Carpenter has been for the Tigers. He is demolishing right-handed pitching and just thriving in the role that he's been given. And his spot this year was not guaranteed because of last year being so lost for him. He was hurt.

[00:14:40] And can we rely on this guy in the lineup? Yeah. And then now, if you look at guys with as many played appearances as he has, 161, the only five guys in Major League Baseball that are more productive by WRC Plus in front of him are James Wood, Carlos Cortez, Juan Soto, Ben Rice, and Jordan Alvarez. Like, that's pretty good. Is that a good list? That is a pretty good list. Shout out Luke Raley. Who needs Jordan Alvarez when you have Jordan Alvarez at home?

[00:15:11] Well, that's what people say about Laz. But Luke Raley's playing in the big leagues. No, I know. I'm just messing around. We love Laz. We want Laz to be great. But people really like to hang on to that Jordan thing with Laz. Anyway, I don't want to get sidetracked here. Is there any feeling that this could be redundant as the year goes on? Like, are Raley and Canzone's roles on the team going to get redundant at any point?

[00:15:39] Or can they just be utilized together all year? As long as the Mariners don't add any more left-handed bats, which as of now, I can't think of any left-handed bats they're going to add unless it's Laz. Right. Which it won't be this year, I don't think. Are there any lefty trade bats available that are going to push those guys out of their spots? The main trade bat we've talked about is Wilson Contreras. He's a right-handed hitter. Yeah.

[00:16:08] And Taylor Ward, also right-handed hitter. Now, to be fair, if you're trading for those guys, you'd probably want them to play every day. You're not platooning them. The reason Dom Canzone plays so much is because he is in a platoon with Rob Refsnyder. And Rob Refsnyder has not earned an opportunity to hit against both righties and lefties, based on how he's performed definitely this year, and almost certainly in his career.

[00:16:33] But if you were to acquire Wilson Contreras, maybe it does get a little bit redundant. And then you have to choose, and the Mariners are probably choosing Luke Raley. Because his bat's just been better. But before the season, I could say, yeah, and Luke Raley also plays defense. But after seeing some of the defensive numbers on Luke Raley this year, no, he's not playing defense. Him and Dom are, neither of them are playing any defense. But it's okay, because they're mashing. I mean, nobody in this outfield is really playing defense at this point.

[00:17:03] No. And I think, yeah. No. They're not. It's incredible the efficiency they're not playing defense in this outfield. Didn't cost them this weekend, though. Which, thank goodness Victor Robles is back. Which we hit on a little bit on Friday's episode. But they really, really needed him back. Because look at what he did. Again, we mentioned it a couple days ago. But look at what he did in that last game in Oakland. Just talking about the six-game win streak.

[00:17:31] He made a couple of really nice plays out in right field that were not easy to make. And those are plays that the rest of the crew out there, especially, like, I'm talking about the right fielders, are not making. Those are not plays Rayleigh and Canzone are likely getting to. So Robles just adds such a different element when he's out there. It gives him more speed, more defense. Which, you know, this is part of the redundancy question we can ask. Because where does Robles' role fit into all this?

[00:18:00] Likely it would just be when the lefties are on the mound, he's in right, and refs that are DHs. But, you know, I mean, is there a world where he plays every day? Two years ago, when he had his career a year, he was actually mashing righties. I don't think he hits enough to play every day. He's going to have to hit to do that. Right. I don't think the last year version of Victor Robles hit enough to play every day. He didn't play that much last year, to be fair.

[00:18:29] But if Victor Robles is just like a league average to like 90 WRC plus bat, then no, he's not going to play every day. Right. And he didn't hit much when he was playing last year. His defense is good. He's not, you know, Alex Gordon in a corner good. Right. He just kind of looks like Alex Gordon compared to the other corner outfielders the Mariners have. Yeah. No, he's not each your own right field.

[00:18:56] But it might benefit the team if he starts hitting and plays every day. Right. Then you'd find some value. Right. But then you have Ray Lear, Canzone coming off the bench, which maybe isn't the worst thing because, man, the Mariners get very, very platoon happy with their pinch hit decisions as the game rolls on. So just because somebody doesn't start in that game doesn't mean they're not going to be heavily utilized later. But the point being on these right hand or on the left handed bats for the right handed side of the platoon.

[00:19:26] Yeah, they've gotten that right. Because both Ray Lear and Canzone have really, really mashed through the first two months of the year. They've been focal points in the offense when there's a righty on the mound. I think there's a huge storyline for me that's jumping out, especially today from this Sunday's game that I want to talk about. But before that, let's pause here for an ad. We always want our listeners to be informed about the game of baseball and the Mariners. Believe it or not, there was a time where we had to learn what catch probability was

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[00:22:15] Well, I think this is the best version of Bryce Miller we have seen as a professional. He looks better than I've ever seen him before. I mean, he just continues to absolutely carve it up. I wonder how much those extra few weeks of rest did for him. I know he had to come back from an injury, but I almost wonder if the extra rest time in the late start did him some good. I think he does this no matter what. I'm serious.

[00:22:44] I think this is the version of Bryce Miller that he trained to be in the offseason. They floated the story out there that Bryce put on some good weight this offseason in an effort to be probably a little bit more sustainable over the course of the season and give him his body more support with more muscle, but also has allowed him to unlock what he does best, which is throw his fastball and eat in the strike zone with his fastball.

[00:23:11] It's allowed him to do so many things this season with what he's done with his heater. He's throwing his fastball two miles an hour harder this season than he has in his previous high, which was back in 2024. It's 97 miles an hour on that heater now. And that feels like a product of both being healthy and putting on the good weight.

[00:23:37] And I think he tweaked a little bit of mechanics, too, to help unlock some of that. But what this does for Bryce Miller is when he throws hard, he's pretty unhittable. And he's pretty aggressive in the strike zone, which showed this weekend. I mean, he's ended, he ends his first four starts of the season with a walk rate of 3.8%. It's better than Kirby. It's better than Wu.

[00:24:03] He's just taking his four-seam fastball and he's ripping it in the strike zone. He's saying, I dare you to hit it. And guys, when Bryce Miller throws the fastball hard, they don't hit his fastball. Listen to these splits of Bryce Miller's fastball when he throws it above 95 and below 95. Above 95 miles an hour, Bryce Miller allows a slash line of 196, 230, 349.

[00:24:29] When Bryce Miller throws a pitch less, or throws a fastball less than 94 miles an hour, the slash line is 429, 520, 1000. 1500 OPS when he throws a fastball less than 95 miles an hour. But when he throws it more than 95, the OPS is 579. That's a thousand points of OPS.

[00:24:57] Dude, those are ridiculous splits. Legitimately ridiculous splits. Which, sure, it's not that surprising. It's not that surprising when you say, when you throw your fastball harder and with more spin, you're going to get more swing and miss. But you're talking about a thousand points difference in OPS by two miles an hour on your fastball. And maybe Bryce went into the soft season and said, I'm the most effective when I throw hard.

[00:25:26] I need to find a way to throw hard more consistently. The thing that has showed that is he's not thrown a pitch under 95 miles an hour of... It's not a pitch, a fastball. He's not thrown a fastball under 95 miles an hour all season long. And you wonder why he hasn't gotten hit. I mean, remember when Bryce first came up and he had that ridiculous stretch to start his career? This was what was making him back then. This was his bread and butter.

[00:25:54] It was that he was throwing fastballs 65-70% of the time. And guys were not hitting it. He was just ripping that foreseem by people. Now, we've seen him change a little bit and alter his arsenal a little bit since that time's gone on. And since the league's adjusted to him a bit. But it doesn't shock me that when healthy, and especially after adding some good weight this winter, he's at his best when he's absolutely firing that fastball above 95 miles an hour.

[00:26:23] Because that's what he was doing when he got up. And that was still arguably the best stretch of starts we've seen from Bryce. I guess outside of that second half of 24 when he was also pretty dominant. But for him adding the splitter and how good that's been when it's been at its best, and the breaking ball that Bryce often, you know, the sweeper that Bryce often throws that has a bunch of effect. I mean, he is at his best. I guess I should say slider, not sweeper with Bryce. Or is it a slider? No, it is a slider, right?

[00:26:53] It's his bullet slider that has been really effective this year. Woo throws the sweeper. Bryce throws the slider. Bryce does throw a sweeper, it's just not as effective. Right. No, no, no. He throws it. And whatever. I'm getting all mixed up. Woo throws two sliders, but I think mostly he uses a bullet slider too. Bryce's bullet slider has been very good. The splitter he added a couple years ago has been dominant when it's been at its best.

[00:27:21] But yeah, at his core, he is a fastball guy, a fastball heavy pitcher that gets a lot of swing and miss on the four scene when it's really at its best. Through four starts this year, it has been at its best. The difference between this version of Bryce Miller and the rookie version of Bryce Miller that is dominating with his fastballs, this fastball feels like it has more support behind it to sustain itself through the season.

[00:27:44] Bryce Miller's problem early in his career has been holding his velocity with his fastball deep into starts, which he has not always done. He would start out in the first couple of innings, go in 96-97. But then by the fifth or sixth inning, he's throwing 94-95, maybe mixing in a couple of 93s. And we especially saw that last year when he was dealing with the bone spurs in his elbow, and he wasn't able to fully get through his mechanics, and he wasn't throwing hard at all.

[00:28:13] This year, I mean, the velo is so impressive that I would be surprised if we see a velocity dip if he stays healthy. Because he's just throwing the ball that hard, and it showed exactly how effective it's been. And on top of that, it's not that he's getting swing and miss, Lyle. He's allowing an exit velocity four miles an hour slower than his career high before.

[00:28:42] Four miles an hour lower now through four starts. And then what did he do here on Sunday? Despite the Mariners only letting him go 71 pitches, which... Let's just let the whole thing... Let's save that for the end. We can save that for the end. Yeah, like, now that the piggyback's finally going to end and they're going to go back to a six-man rotation, maybe this is an episode where we can just let it go and we don't need to harp on it. It might just be wasted effort since they're finally getting rid of it.

[00:29:09] Well, we don't need to harp on it, but they did make a decision what they're doing going forward. Yeah, it's going to be a six-man. Right. It'll be a six-man. But in the 71 pitches Bryce threw here on Sunday, 17 whiffs. I mean, that's a ridiculous rate. He had 17 whiffs on the day in 71 pitches. And by the way, seven of those 17 were on the four-seam fastball. I'd say that's pretty good, Lyle.

[00:29:36] And you know how I said the average exit velocity was down four miles an hour? Well, his exit velocity that he allowed today against the Diamondbacks, an average of 75.4. Yeah, that's ridiculously low. Yeah. The highest exit velocity Bryce Miller allowed in this game today was 83.2. You don't do damage when you hit a ball 83.2 miles an hour. So let's check this out for Bryce Miller. He's throwing harder than ever.

[00:30:06] He's allowing softer contact than ever. He's built his body up better than he has in the past. This kind of feels like the best version of Bryce Miller we've seen. I can't wait to see 25 starts of this and then look back at the end of the year and see what his numbers look like. Because he's got all the ingredients to put together an even better season so far from what we're seeing than he did in 2024.

[00:30:36] We're going to need to see the start stretched out and we're going to need to see a lot more than four of them. But man, through four has he been good. I think the conclusion here is he needs to be in the rotation. He is too good to be piggybacked. And thank God that's ending. Because he needs full starts, Bryce Miller. He's worth it. He's earned it. He's proving it every time he's gone out so far this year. And that's what the Mariner said. They said, we're going to a six-man rotation. Yeah. As they should.

[00:31:06] Agreed. I guess the other storyline from this weekend, I mean, and there's been some really good ones. I mean, we haven't even mentioned that Randy Rosarena walked it off on Friday night. And he, again, just comes up clutch and continues to hit and continues to be a catalyst offensively while Cal's been out. We've harped on that a bit, but it is the truth. I mean, Randy has been so, so, so invaluable offensively for these guys while Cal's been out.

[00:31:34] But while we're staying on the pitching side, if I'm going to pick one more big storyline from this weekend, Brian Wu really is just unreal. I mean, he goes seven scoreless with no walks and nine punch outs and two hits on Saturday night. Remember when he had those two clunkers a few weeks ago? And everybody's like, oh, no. What's going on with Brian Wu? And do we need to be concerned? And I'm sitting there and I'm saying, no. Like, okay, he can have a couple bad turns through the rotation. It happens to the best of them.

[00:32:05] And then he's proved sense that that's exactly what it was. A couple of clunkers. Because this guy still has every possibility in his back pocket to go win the Cy Young. He really does. His ERA is sitting at three fours. We sit here on June 1st. There's four months left to go. And he's going to put together plenty more starts where he dominates the way he did on Saturday night. Brian Wu, when he's at his best, is one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball. And we saw that this weekend. Well, he did it against a pretty good offensive team, too.

[00:32:35] So, they had the efficiency that it's pretty hard to achieve against a team like that. Especially what they did to George Kirby the night before. And George Kirby was living in the strike zone and the Diamondbacks were hitting him a little bit. And Brian Wu was like, good luck. Good luck, guys. I don't think you're going to hit me tonight. And they certainly did. This pitching staff has, I think, turned a bit of a corner.

[00:33:04] Like, they've really, really stepped up this last week. Like, this last week, outside of that Friday game against the Diamondbacks, the Kirby game I just mentioned, they've allowed two runs or less in all of them. Starters have been a huge part of it. It's not just the starting pitchers, though. This also goes to a bullpen, which is now getting healthier with Brash back and Spire back. We checked in with Gabe this week. Like, hey, Gabe. How you doing? Like, we saw him at the ballpark. He's like, I feel great, guys. Like, this feels good to be back. And it feels good to be healthy.

[00:33:32] That should make you feel pretty good about what you're seeing with this pitching staff. I know Munoz had one clunker on Friday. But besides that, it's been check marks across the board. I mean, isn't that what Gabe Spire is leveraged to do? And then when he's at his best, makes him so dominant? Look at the way he was deployed this weekend. They said, okay, Gabe. Gabe, we need you in a leveraged spot against the Diamondbacks' best hitter, who's a lefty in Corbin Carroll.

[00:34:00] And Gabe goes in there, and he just absolutely blows his doors off. Blew it right by him. And he got out of a key spot. And he's fired up, too. He looked like those college kids playing in the regionals this weekend. Yeah. Yes. Which is when Gabe's at his best. Again, when he's got that mid to high 90s fastball. Elevates it. Gets a bunch of lefties out. Gets swing and miss against the lefties. And he's fired up. Gabe can get himself really fired up, especially when he gets out of big spots. And that was a really big spot he got himself out of.

[00:34:28] Because Corbin Carroll is no pushover by any stretch to get out. And that's putting it lightly. Corbin Carroll is one of the best players in the league. And Gabe really got him on Friday. I'm going to need a prediction from you. So as the Mariners have now gotten through this series against the Diamondbacks. We talked about this on last episode, but let's talk about it again.

[00:34:49] The Mariners are going to go on a stretch where they face the Tigers, the Orioles, the Nationals, the Orioles again, the Red Sox, and then the Pirates. That is what? 3, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19 games against teams that are... I believe that... Oh, Pirates are above 500. But I'd put them in the mediocre bucket.

[00:35:17] 19 games against mediocre to bad teams in a row. What should the Mariners do in this stretch now that we kind of feel like they've turned the page? If they keep this up, handle business, and do what they're supposed to do, I'll say 12-7. I'm hoping for a 12-7 or 13-6 in this stretch. Because they're two games over right now, two games over 500.

[00:35:45] You go 12-7 in that stretch, and you'll be 7 over by about the middle of June. That's pretty good. So they have a series against Cleveland right after that. But then, as we talked about, then they go to the Angels, and then they play the Blue Jays, and then they play the Marlins. So that's nine more games against teams that aren't exactly succeeding this year. And then they close with the Rays before the break. It's a pretty good stretch of games. Although, are the Blue Jays going to be healthy by then?

[00:36:16] I think we're going to need to see what the Blue Jays look like a month from now before we say, Oh, you can just go take that series. They're about where the Mariners are right now. I think we're going to need to see what the Blue Jays look like in a month. The other teams, I think you know what they are for the most part. The Blue Jays have just been so injured that I'm in a little bit of wait-and-see mode with them. And a run differential update, Lyle. The Mariners are still in second in the whole American League.

[00:36:44] It's just the Yankees and the Mariners at plus 30 or above now. That's so ridiculous. I mean, how is the AL this bad? It doesn't make any sense. I know there's some players over the last couple years that have left the AL for the NL. But for it to be so lopsided compared to the National League is just crazy. Of the teams that are above .500, the White Sox are 32-27. They have a run differential of plus 8.

[00:37:12] The Guardians are 34-27. They have a run differential of plus 1. The Yankees are 36-23. They have a run differential of plus 98. They've been very good. The Rays are 36-20 and have a run differential of plus 19. The Rangers are 28-31 and have a run differential of plus 7. And then the Mariners, 31-29 plus 30. Yeah. Great job, guys.

[00:37:43] If the season ended today, the White Sox are in the playoffs. Think about that. It's good for the Mariners. Or is it good for the Mariners? Actually, maybe that's not good for the Mariners. I mean, they should beat that White Sox team in a playoff series. I mean, you would think. Let's also see what they do without Murakami for what could be, unfortunately, two months. He's going to be out, they said, six to eight weeks with a hamstring. So we'll see what they do without him. It's a bummer. Yeah, it is. It's a bummer for them. Definitely.

[00:38:11] By the way, one little other Brian Wu note before we start to wrap that part of it up and start to put a bow on any other points we want to hit from this weekend. I guess this could be a deeper conversation for another day if we choose to have it be that. But have you noticed his two-seam usage is down this year? For the first time, he's not throwing that two-seamer in the mid to high 20% range.

[00:38:34] So Brian Wu, for the most part of his career, has always been 70-plus percent fastball between the four-seam and the two-seam. I mean, his rookie year, he threw that two-seam fastball a fourth of the time, 25%. 2024, he threw it 23%. Then last year, it was back up to 25.5%. Like, he's really leaned on that throughout the course of his young career. All of a sudden this year, and maybe because it's getting hit a little bit harder, he's gone away from it a bit. It's down this year.

[00:39:04] 18%. He has started to use less of the two-seam. He still relies heavily on the four-seam for very good reason because it's his best pitch. But for a guy that really didn't always lean into his secondaries early on, he's starting to do that a lot more now. Like, the usage of his two breaking balls are up, and the two-seam usage is a little bit down. This might be just Brian Wu's evolution as a pitcher.

[00:39:30] At some point, you've got to be able to be flexible with what the matchup is in front of you. I honestly think that's a little bit more of what it is as opposed to just like he doesn't believe in his two-seamer anymore.

[00:40:17] No, that's not what I'm saying. He's going to throw 30 pitches if it was up to him. He would have 30 different pitches in his arsenal. He loves to tinker. He loves to add. Wu's never been that. Wu is pretty set on, yeah, this is what my arsenal is, and you're going to go and try and hit it. So he hasn't added a pitch, but maybe his version of tinkering and his version of adapting is just toying around with the usage of his pitches and the amount that he throws certain pitches rather than adding something.

[00:40:47] Because now he's starting to lean on his sliders a lot more, his breaking balls, than the two-seamer because the usage is down a little bit this year. Yeah. So sinker's not really getting, if I'm looking at the movement of it, it doesn't look like it's getting as much downward movement this year. So honestly, maybe he doesn't have as much of a feel for that pitch. And by slug, it's getting hit as hard as it's ever been.

[00:41:15] And guys are elevating it a little bit more too. Right. So if it's getting slugged, then sure, yet another reason you might move off of it a bit. I wouldn't say it's that much of a concern, though. So yes, it's dropped, but 18%, I think, is still a pretty solid percent to throw a sinker. Oh, I didn't even bring this up meaning it's a concern.

[00:41:38] I just brought it up saying, is it interesting that he is now really starting to lean more on his breaking balls for the first time in his career? Because again, he's been so fastball heavy, and he's still very fastball heavy. When it's all said and done, Brian Wu is still throwing his fastballs about 65 plus percent of the time. A little bit above 65 percent of the time. It's still a lot. But the usage of both that sweeper and the slider is up from where it's been throughout most of his career.

[00:42:08] So he is starting to rely on some of his secondaries more. I'd say it's notable if we're seeing outlier positives in certain areas. Brian Wu's just been flat out good, like he's been in his career. I don't know if we're seeing any outlier things that we haven't seen before. Yeah. Like his ground ball rate is not as high as it usually is. It has sat pretty much exactly at 40 percent each of his first three seasons.

[00:42:36] This year it's down to 35 percent. But this pitch split literally explains that. The pitch that generates all the ground balls, he's throwing 7 percent less than he usually does. Therefore, his ground ball rate, by the math equation of how many pitches he's throwing at home plate, is going down 5 percent. But it doesn't mean he's been less productive. You would think if he's throwing his breaking balls more, he's aiming for more strikeouts. Strikeout rate is lower than it was last season.

[00:43:06] And roughly about what it is for his career average. If he's expecting to see different results from this pitch split, if it's like truly intentional and this is going to be a season-long thing, we haven't seen it yet. But the results are still good, so I'm just not going to complain. No? I'm not complaining about much Mariners-wise this week. They won all their games. Swept the what was first place A's. Swept the Diamondbacks.

[00:43:34] Set to face a team that they should absolutely handle in the Mets. They're not running out a very tough rotation in these three games against them. Freddy Peralta will be tough, but the first two games are not tough. At least on paper. All of a sudden, they're sitting in a pretty good spot. I do want to close out this podcast by talking about the storyline of this piggyback and what they're going to do going forward with this rotation.

[00:43:57] But before that, Lyle, I want to tell you guys that Jim Jeffries is coming to the Emerald Queen Events Center on Thursday, June 18th at 8 p.m. Whether you're in town for the World Cup like he is or just need some laughs, the Emerald Queen Events Center is the place to be. Before the show, you can check out his specials on Netflix or the Jim Jeffries Show on Comedy Central. Get your tickets today at emeraldqueen.com. And while you're there, you can take your night to the next level at Slahal Steakhouse. Rooftop dining at Emerald Queen Casino gives you mountain-to-sound views.

[00:44:27] Paired with premium steaks and creative cocktails, you'll just have to see it to believe it. Come by Friday and Sunday from 4 to 10 and Saturday from 4 to 11. You can get your reservation today on OpenTable or by calling 253-441-3101. That's 253-441-3101. Today, Lyle, might have been the last time we saw the piggyback. Period.

[00:44:53] And I will say, and this is what the Mariners would tell you if you asked them about it. But baseball production-wise, through three starts of the piggyback, the Mariners blew their own expectations, I'm sure, out of the water with how well it worked. They dominated on the mound all three times they deployed the piggyback.

[00:45:13] But I think rightfully so, they're going to a six-man rotation to achieve that goal that they pretty much set out of, we want to keep all these guys stretched out. I think today showed that. As effective as the piggyback was, there were multiple occurrences late in the game where you would go to a Matt Brash or an Andres Munoz to get Luis Castillo out of trouble. And the Mariners in a close game were like, nope, we're moving Luis Castillo's pitch count up instead.

[00:45:43] Worked out because he got out of it. But baseball strategy-wise, it probably works out better if you put Munoz or Brash in in spots like that. And they didn't end up doing that. Now Luis is going back into the rotation in a six-man rotation, at least for the next couple of weeks. I don't think we or anybody else ever argued that it wasn't working by run prevention. That was never the story.

[00:46:08] What we were arguing is you cannot win meaningful, like you cannot have a meaningful season and go on the road the Mariners want to go on with a pissed-off clubhouse. You just can't. Teams don't win World Series with a bunch of disgruntled players. Very, very rarely. So that's more what it was about. Yeah, by run production, it was working. I don't think we ever said anything otherwise. Now, we despised how the first game of the piggyback was managed because it wasn't Munoz in the ninth.

[00:46:38] But it wasn't because – but again, it wasn't driving us crazy because of the simple run prevention. Like by run prevention, it's been good. But you also – again, if you're serious about trying to keep everybody happy and everybody stretched out, you can't do the piggyback thing forever. Which I'm glad at this point they're just going to do the six-man.

[00:46:59] And they said they were able to finally communicate to Luis and Bryce, which is a story in and of itself, before this third time they piggybacked. But the way I think about this, I don't even know if there still was full buy-in from those guys to do this again, which is why they're going to a six-man rotation and they feel like it's better. Like they'll spin it as we're playing 16 games in 17 days.

[00:47:26] We could give these guys all an extra day off and prep them for later in the season. But also like given the results we've seen on the field, if these guys were truly like, yeah, let's do it. I'm fine with the piggyback. Like they'd continue to do it. But I still don't feel like even after those conversations were had with Justin Hollander – it sounds like the coaching staff, Jerry DiPoto and Justin Hollander met with both of the pitchers to try and talk them through this.

[00:47:55] And they still end up going to a six-man rotation. Again, who are the ones that said everything's in a good place and the message has been relayed well and they're all set? Jerry DiPoto and Dan Wilson. Not Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo. Well, Bryce and Luis did say that like on Thursday. Well, they said, okay, now it's been communicated better and we're in a better place.

[00:48:19] And I'm guessing the reason they said that is because I'm sure it was communicated that, hey, we're going to do this one more time. And now we're going to go to a six-man, meaning you're going to get to start regular games. You don't have to prepare late and come in out of the bullpen, etc. That's why I bet you they said they were in a better place about it. If they had kept this going, I'm not sure those are their quotes. There were no public outcries of distaste of the strategy today on Sunday that we could see.

[00:48:49] But as we just talked about with Bryce Miller's start, I'd be hard-pressed to think Bryce was over the moon that he got pulled out of the game after the fifth inning today. And Bryce Miller was essentially throwing well enough to go for a complete game and got pulled after five innings. Maybe he wouldn't have gone a complete game, but he could have gone seven or eight, that's for sure. Seven or eight dominant innings and seven or eight dominant innings is about the best start of Bryce Miller's career. Yeah.

[00:49:18] And instead he got pulled. Yeah. I'm sure Bryce is ready to put this behind him, like a lot of people are, because I'm sure he's now in a better headspace that this is going to be a six-man rotation and he's just going to start. But yeah, if you were to get into the mind of Bryce Miller and make him take a polygraph test, I wouldn't imagine he was thrilled about getting pulled after 71 pitches when he's just dicing it up. Yeah. And I don't think Castillo does either.

[00:49:47] I feel like both of them think the exact same thing about this. I know we view them both very differently as pitchers nowadays. In terms of how they view this, they're like, this does not help us. No. No, it doesn't. So, at least this is going to be over and done with. For now. They still seem pretty noncommittal of what they're going to do.

[00:50:08] After these 16 games, at least publicly, it sounds to me still they're a little noncommittal about how they're going to handle all six of these guys. At some point, you cannot run a six-man rotation the entire season. And you can't run a piggyback the entire season. I get, like, trying to kick the can down the road as far as possible. But as of right now, it feels like they haven't really committed to a long-term plan.

[00:50:37] I mean, by that point, when this stretch is over, if Luis has still not turned this thing around, then you're talking about three months of very subpar production. If you're at the halfway point of the season, and that's where Luis is at, or his ERA is still in the fives or even sixes, and he's still not turning the corner, is it not at that point you just move him to the bullpen? Because at that point, you know who your five best starters are.

[00:51:04] And then if somebody goes down, this is where Kate Anderson factors into this. Because the man just does not stop dominating Arkansas hitters. I don't know how much more Kate Anderson has to prove in the minor leagues, which is crazy to say after only nine professional starts. But that's how good he's been. He doesn't walk anybody. He's striking out 14 batters per nine in the minor leagues. His ERA is in the ones.

[00:51:29] By the end of June, do you not just move Luis to the pen, and if somebody were to get hurt, that's when it's Kate's turn? Sure. Yes. Seems like a pretty logical solution. And it also seems like a potentially realistic solution. I think that would work out.

[00:51:53] But the thing they're going to try first is they've given Luis Castillo some of his confidence back with this piggyback. He's pitched well when they've done this. Is he going to translate that back to starting full games in the rotation? Well, if Luis goes back to pitching really well, yeah, then you're in for an interesting conversation. Because if Luis has a really good month of June, then it is going to be a difficult decision on what you do with six really good starting pitchers.

[00:52:21] But if he doesn't turn the corner, I feel like that's the solution that makes the most sense. And as we've talked about, Kate needs to start games. He's not coming... Until September, he's not coming up to the big leagues and pitching in the bullpen. No. But he's got to start. He can be in the bullpen in September and certainly in the playoffs because you just want all your best arms on the roster. But yeah, you don't want him in the bullpen in July. He should be starting.

[00:52:48] We've done this entire podcast episode and talked about multiple different excellent starting pitchers and how good they've been throwing. And didn't mention the guy Lyle in this Mariner system who had the best start this week in Ryan Sloan. Six perfect innings on 61 pitches and 11 strikeouts. Dude, there's a world that he's just the best pitching prospect in minor league baseball right now. Him and Cade. Cade. He... Sneak peek.

[00:53:17] He's ranked above Cade in the newest Just Baseball Top 100 update. He has been... Let me just lay that out simply for people. The guy who is already too good for the minor leagues is ranked behind Ryan Sloan. Dude, what an embarrassment of riches. Seriously. You've got six legit big league starters right now and then maybe the two best pitching prospects in minor league baseball.

[00:53:48] That's a good problem to have. I mean, Ryan Sloan, by no shock, had a couple of rocky outings here and there as he weaved his way through the early parts of the double-A season. Which, again, isn't that surprising. He didn't make that many starts in high A last year. They pushed him hard because of how good he was, how advanced he was, how sharp he looked in spring training. And they put him at double-A at a very young age. And early on, sure, he got hit around a bit. But now in the last few weeks, he is really locked in.

[00:54:17] He is really starting to find his footing and settle in in Arkansas. And nothing more so than that start he just put out this weekend with six perfect innings. He has been awesome. Can you remember the last team to have a problem the Mariners might have a year from now? No. We've said it's a good problem. But we're talking about...

[00:54:40] There's eight probably major league pitchers, major league starters vying for five spots. Because by this time next year, you're talking about... Wu, Kirby, Gilbert, Castillo, Bryce Miller, Kate Anderson, Ryan Sloan, and Logan Evans. Those are the eight? Oh, you missed Emerson. No, I said Emerson, didn't I? No. Oh.

[00:55:09] Well, then nine. What do you do? Yeah, I don't know. Like, there are... Unfortunately, there are going to be some feelings hurt. Or guys are getting traded. Right. Yeah. It is going to be... Next year is going to be fascinating. When we get to that point next year, it's going to be fascinating. No. Great. It's been a great month for the farm system. We're overdue to do an update on the farm. It has been...

[00:55:38] It's been crazy good. Very, very good. All right. I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full-form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure to download these episodes if you're listening. Go rate and review five stars on the audio platforms. It helps a ton if you do. Same idea over on YouTube, but go like, comment, and please, most importantly, go hit that subscribe button on YouTube. If you're on our website, you can check it out at marinelayerpod.com.

[00:56:07] You can find our merch there. All our episodes are there. Patreon's there. It's a big one-stop shop. That's marinelayerpod.com. And then find us across social media. We're posting content every single day at MarinelayerPod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.