Episode 2: Profiling FA SS Xander Bogaerts, Mock Chris Flexen Trades, And The Firing Spree In Houston

00:00:00 Speaker 1: On episode two of the Marine Layer Podcast with Lyle Goldstein and TJ. Matthewson, We'll take a look at what a potential Chris Flexen trade would look like for the Mariners. We'll look at the free agent profile of one of the four major free agents shortstops, former Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogarts. We'll take a look around all the latest Major League Baseball news in our Major League Baseball wrap around, and then we'll finish the show with speaking our minds on well, whatever Lyle and I have cooked up for today should be a good show. 00:00:34 Speaker 2: And with that we'll get it rolling and welcome you into. 00:00:46 Speaker 1: Episode two of the Marine Layer Podcast. 00:00:48 Speaker 2: TJ. 00:00:48 Speaker 1: Matthewson and Lyle Goldstein here on Tuesday, November fifteenth. Lyle Buddy been an entertaining week, especially with free agencies charding to just kick off this episode and congratulate Julio Rodriguez and Scott's service on taking home some hardware in the past forty eight hours from when we were recording this. Scott a few hours ago finishing third in the Ale Manager of the Year Award voting. He finished with one first place vote, which I can't believe it's only one eight second place votes fourteen third place votes. Julio winning American League Rookie of the Year yesterday, Buddy, that's some good achievements for some guys we've been rooting for all season. Not what we thought they deserved, especially in Scott's case, but really good to see. 00:01:38 Speaker 2: Buddy. 00:01:38 Speaker 1: Also, how are you? How are we doing? 00:01:41 Speaker 3: I'm doing great. It was great to see Julio win Rookie of the Year. He takes it home unanimously. Oh wait, he didn't. 00:01:48 Speaker 1: Yeah, it was sound. It was sound reasoning. I thought, I forget the beat writer's name. It was decent. It was decent reasoning. I disagree with some of it. I didn't think all of the points necessarily matched if you actually compared to what Julio did in the exact same thing. But regardless, Adlie Rushman was phenomenal this year, so I can't I can't take too much to offense to it. It was a historic rookie year, so Julio, while we thought he should have been unanimous, you know, the vote went to a good player, so I can't disagree too much with that. 00:02:25 Speaker 3: This was one of the most loaded rookie classes in forever. So yeah, I mean, if somebody else wants to vote for Bradley Rushman, a guy who might already have an argument as the best catcher in baseball, yeah, it's understandable. I'm mostly just giving him a hard time. In all seriousness, it's pretty cool to see Julio win Rookie of the Year. That's two of the last three Mariners that have taken home the Ale Rookie of the Year, So it's pretty cool. And with all the expectations that surrounded Julio coming up, he lived up to all of them. 00:02:51 Speaker 1: And it's not really part of our show, lou going just a tiny bit offscript here, but from the five rookies we saw this year that were really just phenomenal, the two on the Spencer Strider Michael Harris, and then Adlie, Stephen Kwan and Julio Rodriguez in the American League, it's been a while since we've seen this many rookies be this good right out the gate. 00:03:12 Speaker 3: All five of these guys might have taken home the award had they been in their own rookie class last year. I guess these guys are in separate leagues. But for example, Stephen Kuan's a rookie last year. I think he wins it over Randy a Rose Arena, don't you. 00:03:25 Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty easily too. He might have been unanimous, I agree. 00:03:30 Speaker 3: So it just speaks to how good this rookie class was. 00:03:33 Speaker 1: It really was a good rookie class. But we'll move off the rookies for now to our first subject of today's episode. Not really a polarizing subject, Lyle, but Chris Flexen's name has been thrown out there throughout the offseason. If you've looked at Twitter throughout the past week, especially John Morosi reporting from general manager's meetings, Chris Flexen's name has been thrown around in a lot of circles for the Mariners to potentially trade the right hander coming off the season. He threw one hundred and thirty seven innings but was relegated back to the bullpen when the Mariners acquired Luis Castile, which makes his spot a little more expendable. And he's coming off a three and a half win season, which leaves him has his value probably in a pretty good spot after pitching in Korea in the COVID season and such like that. So Chris Flexen's name been thrown around. We've seen some rocky stuff and some other things as well. But Lyle and I have each chosen one trade partner for Chris Flexen this offseason and a good return player on the other side that would help Chris Flexen and the Mariners. It would be a win win on both sides. So Lyle, I'm gonna hit go to you first. What is your trade decision for what the Mariner should do with Chris Flexen. 00:04:50 Speaker 3: Well before we get into what a potential trade would look like, just to outline why he's being shopped around, and you can give your thoughts on this too if you. I think when you look at the Mariners pitching where it stands right now, we know one through four is pretty solidified Castillo, Gilbert Ray Kirby, and then some combination of the five spot between Marco Gonzalez and the expectation that at some point in twenty twenty three we'll see Emerson Hancock and Taylor Dollars. So you never want to have I mean, you always want to have a surplus of starting pitching. Every team wants a surplus of starting pitching. But it does feel like right now there is a potential for a logjam, which maybe why is getting shopped around exactly. 00:05:34 Speaker 1: And if you think of Dollard and Hancock, two guys that really excelled at Double A this year, I don't know if they gain much by going to Triple A because I don't really think there's anything that deters a pitcher's confidence, especially a young pitcher's confidence, more than pitching in the PCL. If you look at most of any pitchers that go down and pitch in Tacoma. I mean George Kirby's one start in Tacoma this year, near the All Star Breaker, only went two innings. It wasn't a good start. He got hit around a little bit. It's just such a hitters environment that I don't think it really benefits you to have Dollard and Hancock down there. And you want to see what those guys would do in the big league rotation, which would make the two guys on the back end, Chris Flexen and Marco Gonsalez a little more expendable. 00:06:18 Speaker 2: Right. 00:06:18 Speaker 3: And we saw George Kirby go right from Double A to the majors. Last year. We saw Matt Brash go right from Double A to the majors, which, by the way. There's another guy that may fight for a spot in the rotation is Matt Brash. So it's great that the Mariners have all these arms, but you can only use so many of them. So we're seeing Chris Flexen start starting to get shopped around. So as a result, the two of us cooked up some proposals for this show. So there's a couple of ways we could have gone with this. Now with what I went with was looking at the Chicago Cubs, a team that may or may not spend big in free agency this winner, but has one specific player with one year left on his deal that could be very intrigue to the Mariners, and that would be Ian Hap. Well with Ian Half, this is a guy that put up over four wins last year. He can play the outfield, he can play second base, and the Cubs are a team that look when you look at what their rotation looks like for next year, Drew Smiley's hitting free agency. Kyle Hendricks has one year left on his deal and he didn't have a great year last year, so the Cubs may be a team that look for some starting pitching, and Ian Happ with only a year left on his deal, they haven't given them a new contract yet. We saw them not extend Wilson Contreras, who's now a free agent, So it doesn't seem like they're exactly keen on bringing him back either. 00:07:37 Speaker 1: No, they wouldn't. And the thing is, with and Wilson Contreras, you would think Lyle would be it would have been their number one option to bring back. So if they're not willing to bring him back and pay him, as you know, sort of the last piece of that twenty sixteen cores it does, it wouldn't make any sense to sign Ian Hap on top of that. Now they might they the options were presenting now would be for them to trade him in the offseason. But I think, you know, his value might be highest at the trade deadline, when someone might be getting a little anxious on that. So that's just sort of a way to think about that. But Ian Happ would be a good name to have in the Mariners lineup, and his power especially would be good. 00:08:18 Speaker 3: Yeah. So when you look a little bit closer what Ian Happ did this past year, he had a career year. His war was nearly five and a half and most of that stem from his outfield defense. And again with only a year left on his contract before free agency. The Mariners made a similar trade last year when they went and got Adam Fraser, because Fraser the year before he was traded to Seattle put up a four point one war in twenty twenty one compared to HAPs four point four war in twenty twenty two. Now that being said, I don't quite think the Mariners can get away with giving up as small of a package in return to get Halp as they did for Fraser, because if you remember TJ, the package they gave up for Fraser was pretty light, at least it felt like a the time. 00:09:01 Speaker 1: Yeah, I remember you and I talking about that trade package when it happened. It's like, well, they just traded for an all star second basement for a couple of really nobodies, And I think, well, we'll get into that with my trade as well, though the one I have proposal, which we'll get to here in a couple of minutes. But you think the value of these stars, even stars good players, would be a lot higher than they are, but then you see what it actually takes to acquire them, and it's a lot lower than you would normally think, which is sort of puzzling for fans, but in the end it usually works out well for an organization and unfortunately is usually lopsided in favor of the team trading for the good player. 00:09:44 Speaker 3: And that's exactly why for this trade package, I feel like I went on the side that may be considered a heavy package. You can be the judge of my trade yourself, but the actual package I put together here is the Mariners trade for Ian Half alone and going back to the Cubs would be Chris Flexen and then left hander at a Maco who has some upside that's really really good, and he's a starting pitcher, a south past starting pitcher that the Mariners really like in the minor leagues, and he's a top ten prospect in the system. I just tried to think about this in the sense of what would cost more than Frasier, because I'm assuming that's what Half would cost, and somebody like Maco thrown in with a good starting pitcher like Flexen feels like it would probably be enough to get him. But I don't know what your thoughts on that are. Is it too high of a package, is it too low of a package, is it the right package? What do you think I. 00:10:35 Speaker 1: Think it would probably from I guess from our perspective, I think it would be a little bit low of a package. But I think we might be underrating at a Maco just a little bit when he was a little bit younger in the minors. Will go not this past season. Let's go back to the season Prior was around the plate a lot more than he was this past season. He struggled preventing runs this season. He also he walked a lot of guys as well. The strikeout stuff wasn't really as consistent in this season, But there's a lot to like from him. Whenever you have a lefty like him who throws hard and has strikeout stuff, that stuff always has value in a minor league system, and that's why the Cubs could have a liking to him, as well as getting a quality major league starting pitcher in Chris Flexen. 00:11:23 Speaker 3: So you feel like this trade is on the low side, because I feel like it was on the high side, just comparing to giving up Corey Roser and Ray Kerr to get Adam Frazier. 00:11:34 Speaker 1: Well, the thing is, it's only really one prospect you're giving, I mean, not giving multiple. You're giving up one and it's from an area in your system that you can afford to trade from. Now, if the Marits were actually going to go after blue chip players, they're trading guys. You know, if they're trading pitching in their system, they're going to be trading guys like Dollard and Hancock to go get those blue chip players. We're not projecting them the trade for blue chip players on this podcast. We're projecting them just to get good players that fit the roster. And I think you know, a major league starting pitcher who can throw one hundred and eighty innings alongside a high upside guy in the minors, is the is the right price I think for Ian Hap. 00:12:17 Speaker 3: And Half, the guy who's been pretty good with the bat in three of his last four years. I mean, in twenty nineteen his ops plus was one twenty eight, it was one thirty one, and twenty twenty it was one nineteen. This past year, but he played some really good defense to go along with that ops plus just as a refresher measures offense one hundreds league average, So this past year, Halp was nineteen percent above league average. Yeah, the tricky thing about this trade is that's a career year that he just put up like we talked about, but he's only got a year left on his deal. If hap had two years left on his deal, this trade may look different. But I think the Mariners won't have to give up as much because he doesn't have as much time left on his contract. 00:12:56 Speaker 1: It just depends how the Mariners system view Adam Maco. We don't have as much insight to that. We have an outside view to this system. We see the top guys all the time. We keep very close eyes on Harry Ford, Taylor, Dollard, Emerson, Hancock, Cole Young, et cetera. On those guys at the top of the system. But when you start getting getting to a Maco, we'll see the highlights pop up across our Twitter feed. But there's real no you know, we're not there at the park getting to watch Adam Maco, So there's only so much I guess we can evaluate on his stuff. So you saying maybe that's a bit of an over cell. It could be if somebody who is at the park watching Maco stuff saying, well, that's big league stuff, I wouldn't depart for this guy. For a guy on a one year deal, that makes sense for me, the outsider. I, you know, haven't gotten to see that yet, So that's why I'm not, you know, too concerned with a you know, from a ten to where's he ranked on the top thirty? 00:13:54 Speaker 2: Is he seven? 00:13:55 Speaker 3: I think I believe he's eight. He ended the year at eight, so he's in the top ten. 00:14:00 Speaker 1: Okay, So you know, I don't think that's like a huge price to give up for I guess one year. And hey, if you like Ian Happ, you can always extend him. 00:14:10 Speaker 2: You know. 00:14:10 Speaker 1: We will talk more about the Mariners needing to add payroll, but you know, one of the best ways to add payroll is to trade for guys you like and then pay them. That that's a great way to build payroll. And if Ian Happ is a guy they like, they would do that. 00:14:26 Speaker 3: I agree, And we'll see if the Mariners would target a team like the Cubs. Again, mostly we've heard the Rockies. Mostly, we've heard some rumblings about a couple other potential suitors. But you put together a trade package too, So what did you kind of cook up here? 00:14:40 Speaker 1: So mine's a bit more of a buy low. I think it's funny enough because it actually wasn't supposed to. 00:14:47 Speaker 2: Be a pun. 00:14:48 Speaker 1: But the Mariners are going to buy low for Brandon Lao. Now if we pronounced his last name differently, like Nathaniel Lowe of the Texas Rangers, great first baseman by the way, a really good hitter. But Brandon loo of the Tampa Bay Devil Ray Devil Rays, Tampa Bay Rays, coming off just a one win season, a guy who put up five wins last year in twenty twenty one, hit thirty nine home runs a WRC plus of one thirty seven last year in Tampa coming off a year we're only played sixty five games and again was only worth one win. Couldn't really get the average really up there. Again, we try not to use batting average, but you know, a guy hit two twenty one and he only slugged three eighty three last year, so a very down year in his age twenty seven season. And for an organization in Tampa Bay, they did just sign him to an extension through twenty twenty seven, a really low money extension. Six years, twenty four million dollars on that extension. And then sorry, I have my years mixed up on the sixth mentioned six years, twenty four million dollars from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty four and then a twenty five and twenty six team options, So we have that under control. But regardless, a guy on a cheap contract which would make his his value a little higher. But for the Rays, maybe they don't really believe as much in his future. 00:16:25 Speaker 2: I'm not sure. 00:16:25 Speaker 1: Again, these are all hypothetical trades for Chris Flexen, but I like the idea of Brandon Lao on the Mariners. I do know that he would fit great, and he would fit exactly what they need at second base and lyow That's why I think he would be a good trade target. 00:16:40 Speaker 3: Look, second base is a gaping hole on this team, so a guy like Brandon Lao, who two of the last three seasons has finished top ten in MVP voting, it makes a lot of sense. My only question is would the Raise trade a guy like that with that much club control, who historically has been one of their best players. 00:17:02 Speaker 1: The thing is with franchises that are cheap, Raise, you know are do not pay much money to the roster at all, and that's what I always wonder. But you're right, the club controls the biggest thing, which is why I think my trade might be a little bit of an under sell. Yours was a bit of an over sell, and the Chris Flexen for Ian Happ trade mine may be a bit of an under sell. But here's what I'm offering the Tampa Bay Rays for Brandon Lao. It is going to be Chris Flexen, number ten prospect in the system, Zach DeLoach, and a player to be named later. So I've not scoped out what that player to be named later would be. It would be I think it's relative whatever value of what the Rays deem to decide on for that player to be named later. It could be someone extremely valuable. There's someone on the raise forty man roster, actually twenty six man roster right now, who is a player to be named later, and he ended up being a top five prospect in Shane bought Now. I don't know if the Mariners would be giving up quite that much for Brandon Lowe, a very good player, But I don't know, again to the you know, the extent of what that that trade, which was just an all time fleece for Chris Archer Pirates, I'm not sure what you were doing there, But that's why I think this would be good for Tampa. Now a little bit about Zach de Looach, second round pick in twenty twenty. Low and I, when we both entern On the Cape got to see Zach DeLoach play when he was in college. His junior season at Texas A and M hit four to twenty one before in only eighteen games before he got drafted in the second round by the Mariners. His entire twenty three year old season in Double A, So I would imagine DeLoach would play a little bit better in in Triple A. As we said, the PCL is just an absolute bambox of a park. And I realized that I did not write down Zach Deloch's stats on my stats page. I wrote down everything else of his that I would need, but didn't write down his stats. But regardless, he had a WRC plus just over one hundred this year that I know in Double A Arkansas, So he was fine. But there's some upside there in the bat. I'm just curious if the Rays would like that. Also, the Rays don't have much outfield depth in their system at all. They only have four total outfielders in their top thirty, and their top rated outfield prospect is Brock Jones, who's not even a top one hundred prospect. He's a former Stanford Cardinal, got drafted in this past year's draft, and he's played a grand total of nineteen career games. So I think it would be good for them to have an outfielder in their system who has plenty of minor league experience and someone that could be on the fringe of the majors within a year. 00:19:54 Speaker 3: Look, it's certainly a possible trade, and the Mariners in the Rays, I feel like, basically stand off to the side of the rest of Major League Baseball during these GM meetings and Winter meetings and basically just propose back and forth this trade and then that trade and then the next trade, because the Mariner's trade with the Rays more than anybody. I gotta be honest, though, I don't love trading with the Rays because those guys are so analytically sound and seem to not that the Mariners aren't, but they really seem to have cracked the code on something that For example, when they gave up Diego Castillo last summer with multiple years of club control, I remember listening to Ryan Divish talk about that screams something that could be trouble to me because the Rays don't just trade guys like that with all that club control. I almost think the same thing with Lao in the sense of, if they were to give them away, they may see something that maybe others. 00:20:45 Speaker 1: Don't, and I would just be curious, I guess lile of what they would see. So again, we're not promising Brandon law gets traded by any measure, because what I like most about Brandon Lao is his walk rate is in double digits and this past season, despite playing just sixty five games, the lowest strikeout rate of his career just twenty three percent, which is right at league average. And if you can take a power guy and have him only strike out twenty three percent of the time, that is extremely valuable. By the way I have Zach Deloach's numbers, I just couldn't see them. In the masha of text, I wrote down two fifty eight three sixty nine four h nine fourteen home runs in Double A Arkansas this year, a one TOZH three WRC plus for the twenty three year old outfielder. And one last thing on Deloch Lyle. If we're talking analytics, that's why, you know, sort of just a pitch to the Rays is because a big reason they drafted Deloch, who didn't have a whole lot of track record in college, was because they liked so much of what they saw in his changes and how he morphed his swing in his shortened twenty twenty season at school to decide to draft him in the second round. I don't know if the Rays would see the same thing, but he's got a good eye again. Got on base thirty seven percent of the time in Double A this year, and if he would go to Triple A I would imagine that number would be pretty good as well. Facing you know more of the Major League, you know Quad A players in Triple A. So I see room for improvement there from Deloch, who will be twenty four this upcoming season, but still an opportunity for an outfielder there. 00:22:25 Speaker 3: For Tampa Bay, they clearly liked some of the Mariners' bats in their system. They traded for Austin Shenton last year, they could potentially trade for Zach de Loach this winner, and if the Mariner's got Brandon Lowe or low I should say I think it's safe to say that, even despite the down year last year, that is an upgraded second base. Adam Fraser had a down year. Brandon Lowe's kind of due for some progression back to the mean, and I think a lot of people would be excited about that because his ceiling is one of the best players in the American League. 00:22:55 Speaker 1: Right I agree with that, And I was trying to look at it through another lens. Lone. Me and you were brainstorming on how we're going to look at these trades, and I wanted to compare it to something. Give me another example of a guy who was a good big leaguer but wasn't gonna stay with his team, and I thought of Andrew Benintendi. 00:23:16 Speaker 2: Now I look at this Ben. 00:23:18 Speaker 1: And Tende trade, which took place back in twenty twenty one. I did not write to date down, but he was traded from the Red Sox to the Royals. So the Royals acquired Andrew Benintendi in a three team trade. But I'm just gonna say what the Royals had to give up to get him. They gave up Khalil Lee, who I believe was a top one hundred prospect at that point, and Francis Cordero, who was not, and then pitchers Grant Gambrel, and Luis de la Rosa just not much there that they really gave up. Franchie Cordero has been worth negative half a win in his big league career. Khalil Lee has played a total of thirteen big league games with the Mets. Grant Gambrell did not pitch in twenty twenty two and as a six point two minor league eerra for his career, and Luis dila Rosa is in a nineteen year old in a slash rookie ball has only thrown forty eight innings in his career. So you know, that's sort of the package it would take to get, you know, an everyday formally good, somewhat young player that the Royals give up. Again, not the same scenario, the Mariners could make a three team trade. In this scenario, we're only mocking a two team trade, but more of an example that it really doesn't take all that much to get a quality player. 00:24:37 Speaker 3: That's true, and they may do it this winner here because they like again, they trade with the Rays a lot. Brandon Lao is a guy that could potentially be on the trading block and the reason that we picked the Rays in one of our mocks here is because there's reports that the Raids are shopping a lot of guys around, and a lot of people are suspecting that despite all that club control, Brandon Lao could be on that list. So it'll be interesting to see what the Rays do moving forward here because they have some potential pieces to trade. But speaking of middle infield bats, that's going to be a topic of today's show, because moving on here, we're going to start profiling at least one free agent per show going forward throughout most of this offseason. Now, the free agent class is mostly headlined by shortstops, four big shortstops to be exact. None of them have signed yet, so we're going to start with one of those guys. We're going to start with former Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogarts, who this past year put up an OPS plus of one to thirty three, so thirty three percent better than league average, a five point eight war, which was first among all shortstops including the other three guys that are in this free agent class, and he also was top thirty total in WAR. In twenty twenty two, he put up an ops of eight thirty three. Defense has been pretty up and down at best most of his career. This year he made some improvements. So certainly an intriguing player, a guy that a lot of teams are going to be interested in. So, TJ, how would he fit with the MS, Well, I. 00:26:09 Speaker 1: Think you would be a good fit. We keep saying that the Mariners and Jerry Echoes this too, that the best fit for the Mariners is to get one of these shortstops and move them to second. Now, I think there's a lot of interesting stuff here about the defense of Xander Bogertz that we can dive into and why he would actually be a really good fit at second base. So with the with the Red Sox this year, he actually had a really resurgent defensive year. He hasn't he has, I did not. I'm trying to take a look at where the where the defense is. But regardless, his defense this year was as good as it has ever been. So from twenty fourteen to twenty twenty one at shortstop for the Boston Red Sox, he clocked negative fifty five defensive run safe. He was negative in the defensive run saved department every single season, and defensive run saved is the Fangrafts metric for grading defense by a position by Statcats Out above average, Lyle. From twenty sixteen, when they started tracking this, to twenty twenty one, he was the second weekest shortstop at negative forty one outs above average. Now we look at this year, he was plus five and plus five outs above average and plus four defensive run saved, the first time in his career that he has been plus in those categories as a defender. Now, I'm going to bring up this point to you, Lyle, because I think there's there's a reason for this. Xander bogarts when he's playing the shortstop position. So if you're looking towards home plate, the right side of second base this year was negative one in outs above average, but when he shifted over in the second base area, he was plus five in the outs above average. That was some interesting stuff. Credit Mike Petriolo OFMLB dot Com for digging those numbers up, and the numbers well get even starker since twenty sixteen. One last note before I'll let you comment on this. In the shortstop area since twenty sixteen, he's negative forty one outs above average, but in the second base area he's plus seven. So it's some interesting stuff to look at and stuff I didn't expect to see when looking at Xander Bogart's. 00:28:48 Speaker 3: So that right there pretty much answered the next question I was going to throw to you, is do you sign a guy to play shortstop based off one good defensive season when his track record is I mean, at best up and down, I think, but at worst, it's a liability his defense. He has never been a good defensive shortstop. He's a guy that started his career playing some third base, then he moved over to shortstop. Along with the shift being banned next year. That's a guy that if you pay him, you're basically going to have to plug at shortstop every day. Do you want to give a guy thirty million dollars to play you way below average defense? 00:29:28 Speaker 2: Well that's a good question. 00:29:29 Speaker 1: So at this point, if we're going to just judge based off of last two year's numbers, if you you were to sign Xander Bogarts, you would have him and his plus I have the number plus five outs above average at shortstop. Or would you play JP Crawford, who is near the bottom of shortstop defense last year in the shortstop position. 00:29:52 Speaker 2: What would you do? 00:29:57 Speaker 3: I think I have more confidence in proffered to have a resurgent year at shortstop, then I do bogarts to keep his defense up. Again, especially with those numbers that you just read out that most of those outs above average came from him playing in the shift that doesn't scream like a guy that's gonna absolutely lock down the six hole and play you goal glove defense. Now, he's mostly being paid for his offense, but you can't have him losing. You can't have him losing you games on defense either, So it's a tough line to kind of toe. 00:30:32 Speaker 1: And let's remember he's also gonna be thirty, and for guys who are not great defenders in their twenties, it's almost assured they're not gonna be at better defenders in their thirties. So that's something to keep in mind when we look at his arm strength as well. At short arm strength isn't the end all be all of being a shortstop, but he's only thirty first percentile in arm strength. The average is about eighty two miles an hour throwing across the I'm in, which again is fine. JP Crawford doesn't have the strongest arm in the world, but it's just something to think about when ranging deep in the hole at short and as that would also be something that would age as you go along. 00:31:14 Speaker 3: Now, what Xander Bogarts is going to be paid for, whether it's by the Mariners or one of the other twenty nine teams, is what he's done on offense, because he has been one of the best offensive players in baseball and close to the best one at his position over the last five years. You look at it one thirty five ohps plus in twenty eighteen, one thirty nine and twenty nineteen, one twenty eight in twenty twenty one, twenty nine and twenty one and one thirty one this past year in twenty twenty two. But a guy who's going to be entering his age thirty season, do we expect him to keep that rate up? 00:31:51 Speaker 1: I don't know, Lyle, I'm trying to figure. I'm trying to take a read on Xander Bogarts because I think this might be very much affected by where he goes and what ballpark he's playing a majority of his games in. So on Baseball Savant, you can look at his hit spray chart and see where a lot of his power goes. You know where a lot of his power went lyle over the Green Monster, which is shorter for a right handed hitter to just loft the ball up in the air and get it over the fence. But if we look at some other trends from Xander Bogarts that are troubling, as we you asked, will he keep it up? I'm not so sure because even though he won the Silver American League Silver Slugger at shortstop this year, he set five year lows in home runs, hard hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity over this last full season. That's not great. That's concerning. 00:32:48 Speaker 3: His batting average on balls in play sat at three sixty two this past year. Now, what that says is he's probably due for a little bit of regression. And looking at another metric, which shout out to Jeremy Crome, a member of Mariners Twitter, he tweeted this out early in the offseason, so away from Fenway, Xander Bogartz's WRC plus was one oh seven. Now, WRC plus and OPS plus are made to take out ballpark factors, but that being said, those numbers kind of scream that he used the Green Monster to his advantage a lot. I mean, he hit a ton of doubles off the Green Monster, which is of course very short, and clearly his numbers away from Fenway Park were not as great as they were at home. So that's a little concerning. 00:33:37 Speaker 1: And another thing to think about, low with a lot of those doubles off the wall, how many of those doubles are flyball outs in different ballparks like t Mobile Park, which would knock down a lot of those. 00:33:48 Speaker 3: That's kind of the point I'm getting at here, is you worry that those translate into a lot more outs ops could go down. And if he's not playing good defense, or if he's not playing good offense, you already know he's likely not going to be the world's greatest defender. Then all of a sudden you're worried, what do we just get ourselves into, right? 00:34:10 Speaker 1: And then if his power SAPs it's well, not totally this way, But is it a right handed hitting version of Adam Frasier who makes a lot more money with slightly more power. 00:34:21 Speaker 2: I don't know. It's quite the top. 00:34:24 Speaker 1: I just thought of that at the top of my head. But I guess one last thing, lyle one last stat here to throw out. You you know what x wOBA is, but expected weighted on base average is essentially measures his quality of contact. So there's a stat weighted on base average which, as I mentioned last episode, measures every you know, every sort of hit differently, singles weighted different than doubles, triples, homers, et cetera. So expected weighted on base average takes into context of your quality of contact and what are you expected to do based on how you are hitting the ball. His ex wOBA has been trending down and now this past season was at three twenty three, which is fifty eight percentile, which is fine but is not great, and it was significantly lower than his weighted on base average, which was probably helped, as you mentioned, by his batting average on balls in play, which was in the top ten percent. Another couple of things since twenty seventeen this past season, expect lows in expected batting average and expected slugging again, which would relate to his quality of contact. So the more and more lyle I dove into this, the less I'm intrigued about in Xander Bogart's bat, which, coming into this free agent cycle, you could argue behind Trey Turner was probably the second safest, but after looking at this, I'm not so sure. 00:35:57 Speaker 3: Oh. Going into the off season, I started to play a bunch of DMX because Xander's walk up song was x is gonna give it to you, And I'm hyping myself up like he's gonna come to Seattle, he's gonna sign here, he's gonna save this offense, he's going to rejuvenate him. And then you look and there's a lot of signs that his contract may go the way that I think Marcus Semions will eventually go. Who by the way, both of those guys are Boris clients in the sense of it'll probably work out for half of it, maybe, if you're lucky, two thirds of it, but you're gonna be sitting with a lot of dead money toward the end of that contract, when likely his offense goes and he already isn't playing defense. 00:36:37 Speaker 1: And by the time his contract is over, say Zander Bogart's want wants your standard shortstop contract, Say I don't know, eight years. I think somebody out there will give him eight years, because that's what Scott Boris is going to ask for. He's going to be thirty eight as a poor defender at shortstop or maybe not poor. I've seen worse but below average with the bat dwindling in power, and you're like, Eh, it's probably not the best use of our money. And I don't know if there's no way the Mariners would do an eight year contract with a shortstop. We're profiling these shortstops because we think there are good fits on this roster. However, if the demands for Xander Bogarts is an eight year contract, I do not see it. 00:37:22 Speaker 3: Jerry Depoto almost never gives contracts like that out. The only one he's given out is to Julio who's a twenty one year old superstar and his ceiling is the best player in baseball. I don't think the Poto has much interest giving an eight year contract to a thirty year old shortstop who historically has not played good defense. 00:37:41 Speaker 1: So that'll be interesting to see how the Xander Bogart saga shakes out. We'll take a look at the other shortstops and other free agents as the weeks go along, given they haven't signed yet, so as long as players are available, we will preview them here on the Marine Layer podcast. Let's switch gears and take a look around base with the MLB wrap around. So, first up this week, Rafael Montero signs a three year, thirty four and a half million dollar contract to return to the Houston Astros. We'll get to this point here in a second. I'm curious who ended up signing Rafael Montero with them currently without a general manager. Rafa this past season a two to three seven ERA, a one sixty three ERA plus on his way to a twenty twenty two World Series. Well, I didn't know much about Robert Suarez before this postseason, but the thirty one year old rookie signs a five year, forty six million dollar contract to stay with the Padres. There's an opt out after three seasons. 00:38:45 Speaker 2: Uh. 00:38:45 Speaker 1: He recorded a two to two seven ERA and a three two two fip UH in his thirty one year old rookie season, rocking a thirty two percent strikeout rate for the San Diego Padres. Anthony Rizzo just announced today here on Tuesday, a two year, thirty four million dollar contract with a seventeen million dollar club option for a third year and a six million dollar buyout with the New York Yankees. Resote returns to the Bronx, where he had a very good season, a one thirty one ops plus for the first baseman. So that's a few of the signings that took place later this week. But as I mentioned with Rafa here Lyle, I'm curious who signed him and there's a reason for that and some speculation down in Houston. 00:39:33 Speaker 3: Were they negotiating with Jeff Bagwell or Craig Bigio because they currently don't have a GM. If you saw this week, James Klick not brought back by the Astros. This is a guy who took over in twenty twenty after Jeff Lunau was let go via the sign stealing scandal. In Click's tenure, they made the Alcs three times, they made the World Series twice, and they won it once this past year. In twenty twenty two, Click was offered a one year extent. He wanted something more than that. They couldn't come to terms on an agreement and they've parted ways. I don't know about you. I was pretty shocked to see this all transpire, considering it felt like he'd done a pretty good job. 00:40:15 Speaker 1: It did feel like he had a pretty good job. It just wasn't It seemed like him and Jim Crane, the owner of the astros didn't see eye to eye, which is sort of puzzling because Crane had to hire Click after Jeff Lunau was fired following the cheating scandal in twenty nineteen. So I was reading, I did check the source, and I did look at this information low before you leaf. Bob Nightingale wrote an article on this, and it had a couple of interesting tidbits here that Crane already was already trying to have a potential succession plan in place from this past off season where he privately interviewed several candidates to replace Click last winner, which they would work under Click for a year, then they would fire him and hire the assistant instead. James Click was permitted to hire his own assistants, and I presume they were fired alongside him this. 00:41:17 Speaker 2: Past week. 00:41:18 Speaker 1: Another note from that article allile just detailing sort of the roster that Click inherited. Nineteen players of the twenty six man roster that won the World Series this year were all acquired by Jeff Lunau. So just a couple interesting notes there. 00:41:34 Speaker 3: I was gonna say, to be fair, Lunau did put together most of this roster, but it certainly didn't feel like Click drove it into the ground or anything like that. I mean, you win a World Series and make three straight ALCS says you have to do something right. For example, they brought back Justin Verlander last year on the one year deal. Who you might say, oh, well, that's a slam dunk move. He was coming off Tommy John surgery. Then he goes out and did what basically, I mean, he couldn't have done any better. He's going to go out and win the cy Young here in a couple of days when it's announced. So Click did something. But like you said, I think there was just some disconnect there between both him and Crane and him and Dusty Baker. 00:42:15 Speaker 1: That's what I was about to say. I'm sure there might have been. There might have been some infighting about who deserves credit for this. That could have That could have absolutely been. It was as simple as a hey, I'm suggesting you do this, and Dusty sort of chuckles it off and doesn't do anything, and James Click was getting frustrated by that. I'm not sure. I just think it's pretty telling when an owner is only willing to give you a one year contract. A one year contract that is an insult. I don't blame James Click for deny it, for turning down that contract, because you can't. You can't work on a one year contract. You can't do it. You're building for the future when you don't even know what your future is. So I think that's super interesting and something we'll have to keep an eye on as we go here in the offseason. I would imagine James Klick will have plenty of suitors, either in an assistant or a full time role as the offseason rolls on. Will another former Mariner signed earlier today, Lyle Tyler Anderson signs a three year, thirty nine million dollar contract with the Los Angeles Angels, going into his thirty eight thirty three season. He'll be thirty three on December thirtieth. He put up a season that me and you for much of the season watching him, really couldn't believe. A two five seven e and one hundred and seventy eight and two thirds innings, ninety eighth percentile average eggs at bloss he wasn't giving up any hard contact at all, ninety first ranked and walk rate ninety fifth and chase rate. I mean, he was really really good this past season. For the Dodgers. 00:43:47 Speaker 3: He had a phenomenal year, but this contract and this player just screamed to me Buyer's remorse. On the Angels side, Like you said, it was a great year for Anderson. In fact, it was a career, but for a guy that's never really put together this type of season ever in his career before this year. Mixed in with the fact that he's a left hander that throws about ninety miles an hour, there's not gonna be an allowance of the shift next year. There's gonna be a lot more open holes for hitters. It just feels like he's probably gonna regress way back to the mean. 00:44:23 Speaker 1: It seems like co regress a little bit. The thing I was most impressed with peaking into this, I didn't realize how good is change up. God, I'm not sure what the Dodgers unlocked in Tyler Anderson. 00:44:35 Speaker 2: They unlock a lot. 00:44:35 Speaker 1: There's a reason they have won the National League West almost every season for the last decade. But there was something they unlocked in his changeup to make him a more successful pitcher that I was just peeking at. The run value. Run value is runs prevented above average. I believe is the official the official terminology for run value, and his change up this year is the best pitch he has had in his career for a whole season. If you market by his quality of contact, his expected batting average against the hard hit rate against that change up, it was really supreme. So maybe the Angels saw something there that is likable and a little bit more sustainable. And you know, I can't blame them for it. An organization that needs more pitching got one of the better by low or by high. I guess you're saying by high on this. I honestly don't know. After doing a little bit more research on this, I think it's not the worst signing. 00:45:36 Speaker 2: In the world. 00:45:37 Speaker 1: We won't know until he throws a pitch in an Angel's uniform. 00:45:41 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true. I was just looking at his ERA plus throughout his career, which is measured basically the same way OPS and WRC plus are accept It's for pitchers, where one hundreds league average, and the higher your number is, the better. Tyler Anderson's ERA plus this year was one sixty three, which is sixty three percent better than league average. He's never even come close to that at any other point in his career. So maybe he really unlocks something with the Dodgers, and maybe the Angels aren't done spending. Maybe this is their b move in their rotation and they have plans to go out and try and sign de Grama Rodin. But if this is their move to try to keep show Hey Otani and Anaheim and save their pitching staff, I just have my questions. 00:46:21 Speaker 2: I think. 00:46:21 Speaker 1: And if they do go out and sign one of those A plus guys, I think it honestly shapes up pretty well for the Angels. I was just doing some in light of Tyler Anderson's signing. There's a lot of praise of the Angel's rotation, something I didn't really pay too close attention to over the course of this season with the Angels, you know, having another forgettable season and just wasting Mike Trout and show he Otani yet again. But the rotation over the second half of the year was really really good. Tyler Anderson had a two week ra in the second half Show Hey of two to two eight, Patrick Standibal two five three, Jose Swarrez a two eight one, Readebtmer's a three to three six. So there's almost a vision here. It seems like for the Angels to sort of stack out the rotation a little bit, and if they're getting one of those A plus guys, I could see it as it being a little bit easier to let Show Hey go along and move along in free agency next year, potentially here to the Mariners. So I guess we'll have to see. 00:47:23 Speaker 3: Yeah, it'll certainly be interesting, and the Angels really need to win next season if they want to keep Otani somewhat happy, and if they want to kind of turn around what's been a tumultuous last couple of years for them. So we'll see what direction they go for them. They're hoping Anderson's just the start of that. That'll just about wrap up our MLB wrap around. So we'll get into our last segment of the show here, which is we're going to speak our minds. 00:47:49 Speaker 1: Speak your mind spot. 00:47:54 Speaker 2: That would be unwise. 00:47:56 Speaker 3: What is necessary is never unwise. So TJ away from baseball today, or it can be baseball, usually it's not, but throughout your week of life, what's been going on, what's on your mind? 00:48:11 Speaker 2: Right? 00:48:12 Speaker 1: So I think the Royals really for bringing the baseball aspect of this back. I wasn't going to do anything baseball. I honestly don't want to do baseball in this segment because I feel like this segment should be separate from baseball. However, the Royals released rendering for a potential new stadium in downtown Kansas City today with their owner. What's their owner's name. I'm trying to look. I don't see his name. What is it, Oh, John Sherman. They're chairman and CEO. So they released renderings, and you had all these bullet points on what a potential new park could do. Two billion dollars currently envisioned for construction costs, creates twenty thousand jobs, one point four million in labor income, YadA, YadA, YadA. But I see, I see these renderings, and it's great. I love downtown ballparks. I think every ballpark should be downtown because I really think it just breaths so much life into a city to have a major sports team downtown. I was in Baltimore this past summer in July, and I got to see Camden Yards in the first really modern park situated in a downtown area, and it was beautiful. It integrates into the city perfectly. There's restaurants and bars all around. People can walk their mass transit. It makes the whole operation a lot smoother than putting a ballpark on the middle of a you know, two square mile chunk of concrete in the middle of nowhere, which has you know, no life, And you would think the ballpark would be a little bit boring, but when it's in the city, I think it's a lot better. So they really knocked it out of the park with this. However, I have one beef, and you know what my beef probably is with this. There's no roof on the stadium. It is twenty twenty two, and teams are spending two billion dollars on stadiums and not putting roofs over them, so that when a rain comes along, people shrug their shoulders and say, well, we can't play today. 00:50:05 Speaker 2: It's raining. 00:50:06 Speaker 1: I wonder how we could have prevented this, So I thank the Royals for giving me some more content in that respect. Beautiful ballpark, though I think it would look fine with a retractable roof over home plate. I just don't understand why they don't do it. 00:50:22 Speaker 2: Why not? Well, why not? 00:50:25 Speaker 3: Listeners are going to learn a couple of things on this podcast. We want to ban the bunt in baseball, we want to talk about batting average as little as possible. We're super pro robo umps and roofs better beyond stadiums like those are our Mount Rushmore takes that you better believe anytime one of those four things are brought up, we're probably gonna agree unanimously on it. We're probably gonna go on a tangent about it, because yeah, I mean, how has a stadium proposal even approved without a roof these days? 00:50:53 Speaker 2: How I don't understand is it? 00:50:55 Speaker 1: Major League Baseball makes billions of dollars of revenue every single year, and yet when it lightly rains and the field gets a little muddy, they don't play. Like people pay money for tickets to go to those games, you can't play because the field is wet. I mean, that's just that's just unbelievable. So that's my first point of speaking my mind. The second speaking of my mind, I'm currently in my fourth walk watch through of Game of Thrones, and I'm approaching season eight again, and I've liked to just take this moment before I get to season eight and really get riled up again to say it is unacceptable that a show ends that way for season eight of Game of Thrones. I think I'm two episodes into season seven and I already can feel it going downhill. I know the plot is just getting crumbier and crumbier and crumbier, and I know by season eight, I'm just gonna be all pissed off again. So it just it really is unacceptable stuff. I'm thankful for, how so the Dragon for reviving a little bit of that decency that the Game of Thrones saga has, because season and eight really almost threw it all right in the garbage. 00:52:05 Speaker 3: I think it's just so hard to end a show. And I'm not defending Game of Thrones, because obviously there's a reason it was almostimously unanimously hated in the final season, but I think in general, it's just very, very difficult to try to put the right cap on any TV show, Like The Office is probably one that stands alone for how well they capped it off. But yeah, I mean some people say these days they just get to season eight and just stop because they don't want to watch the end again. 00:52:33 Speaker 1: But you're gonna watch it for you said, Oh, I'm gonna watch it. There's no way on missing that. The thing I guess with this show is you can't like when a show is labeled as one of the greatest shows of all time, which I think many people would agree Game of Thrones is on or near the Mount rushmore of greatest television shows of all time. To end to show that poorly, to poorly plan the final season like that bad, To to really just screw it up that way and leave your fan base who has hung with you for nearly a decade to watch this show and just to sort of throw your reputation away because you wanted to save some money on the final season. 00:53:14 Speaker 2: Is just just bad. 00:53:16 Speaker 1: It really is bad, and I'm going to get all riled up when I finish it, probably over the weekend. 00:53:21 Speaker 3: Well, I don't blame you. And the tough thing for us is neither of us watch Game of Thrones in real time, where now we're both watching House of the Dragon, and we realize we have to wait like two years for the next season. So that's fun. 00:53:35 Speaker 1: That's twenty twenty four is really really far away. I think the only game of I watched season eight of Game of Thrones live, and I watched the finale of season seven live. Otherwise it was all binging. 00:53:46 Speaker 3: Yeah, for me, it was. I ripped right through all of it in the span of a few weeks, and then I rewatched it again during COVID, so I've seen it a couple of times, but not quite as many as you might speak. My mind is probably a little bit on the upbeat side. I know both of yours were a little on the angrier side. But for me, you and I are both big hip hop fans, and Roddy Rich, who's one of my favorite artists, has a new album dropping this week, so I'm pretty excited about that he's dropping Be the Streets three. There's actually not a whole lot of features on it, which is not a good or bad thing. I like Roddy Rich's music just as a whole, and I like him single. I don't think he needs features, so he's taken an approach where most of it is going to be on his own. But I'm pretty excited to hear it because I get pretty fired up for any of his albums. 00:54:38 Speaker 1: I'ven't listened to a whole lot of Roddy Rich recently. I was actually listening to a little bit at the gym yesterday. Once you mentioned that that could be your speak your mind, so I honestly I listened to a little bit of Roddy Rich got back in the mood a little bit. I'm not sure if I'll listen to it. I've been pretty terrible at listening to new music recently. I think the last new album I listened to when it came out was Post Malone's new album at the beginning of June, and that's, you know, five months ago now pretty much, so that'll be interesting to see one I definitely will be listening to when it comes out. Metro Boomin is going to have a new album out in two weeks I think, and Travis Scott will be on it, so that is an instant listen for me. So I'm really happy that that crew is going to be back together again because I really enjoyed that first album as well. And maybe Roddy Rich will be on there as well. 00:55:24 Speaker 3: I think that's you and me both, Travis Scott for both of us, for those who don't know, pretty close to the top of our listen artists, so that'll be exciting. I think there's been a lot of good hip hop music that's come out the last few months. DJ Khala dropped an album that was pretty good. I mean it. 00:55:40 Speaker 2: Was okay, it was okay, Okay. 00:55:42 Speaker 3: There was a few good songs. How about that. 00:55:45 Speaker 1: The funny thing about DJ Khaled, it's like, none of it's actually like his music. He just wants to tag other people's music, and I'd think just looking at the internet content on about him like deciding to it's like, look at this perfectly good song, and then DJ Khaled comes in and just yells. 00:56:04 Speaker 2: Djay God on his song. He's like, all right, it's mine now, good luck. 00:56:10 Speaker 3: So he's got the easiest. 00:56:11 Speaker 2: It's pretty funny. 00:56:13 Speaker 3: Yeah, his music career is I'm gonna scream my name in the first ten seconds of every song and then let all the other artists just do their thing while I sit back and take some credit. 00:56:22 Speaker 1: I respect the hustle, to be honest. If I could spend my entire life making millions of dollars doing ten seconds of work a song, I would absolutely do it. 00:56:31 Speaker 3: I'm with you. But I'm excited for Roddy Rich And there should be some more good albums in the hip hop world coming out in the next few months, so good news for us. 00:56:40 Speaker 1: That is some good news for us. Yeah, that'll be good. You got one more. 00:56:46 Speaker 3: Uh, actually, that's about it. I think that's that's the only Speak my Mind on my mind this week, So. 00:56:51 Speaker 1: We have one more thing. There is one more thing. Lalanar are playing in the College Fantasy Championship this week. Know, I think one of our speak your mind if someone gets sick, injured and doesn't play, and one of us accidentally starts a running back who doesn't play this upcoming weekend, I think that'll be one of the first things discussed on Speak your Mind next week. 00:57:17 Speaker 2: I think it should be. 00:57:18 Speaker 3: I was gonna save this topic for next week just because see how the results kind of play out, and then either start the show with that or Speak your Mind next week with that. But yeah, while we're sitting about it, or while we're sitting talking about it here at the end, I'm excited for it. And I've had some pretty bad luck in the playoffs the last couple of times we've played College Fantasy, so I'm just crossing my finger is that maybe luck goes my way this time. But playing your team isn't exactly a walk in the park either. 00:57:49 Speaker 1: No, but this isn't the first time have been the highest scoring team in our by the way, college fantasy not fantasy football, not NFL fantasy. This is college fantasy, so a little bit more of a of a ram aspect to it, some more mystery injuries, some more vague coach talk regarding who's starting and who's not and how healthy guys are. So we're really out here playing the guessing game leading up to kickoff. And you, honestly, you know, it's so nice. In NFL fantasy, you can just type a guy's name into availability on Google. It'll tell you instantly are they playing or not? Okay, great, But in college fantasy, I'm literally here, you know, typing Zach Charboney's name into the Twitter search bar and seeing if you know, if like swag Dude four twenty has any update, sitting in the second row with a rose bowl, if Zach Charbonay's warming up or not. Like that's that's what we result to. And I've now, I think I've started Zach now twice this year where he has sat out a game, it's been listed as available and he's warmed up, and then he just hasn't played on the field, and us fantasy owners are sitting there like, thanks, Chip, you're doing you're doing great, pal. Thank you for protecting Zach. I'm sure he was very appreciative of that production. But it would be a good matchup highest scoring team in the league, second highest scoring team in the league with you. That's how all championship should be. 00:59:10 Speaker 3: I agree. I'm looking forward to it and I'm sure it'll be discussed next week. 00:59:15 Speaker 2: I'm sure it will. 00:59:16 Speaker 1: Now that'll wrap it up for this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast. 00:59:20 Speaker 2: You get a force of course, follow. 00:59:22 Speaker 1: Lyle and I on social media at TJ Matthewson for me, at Lyle Underscore Goldstein. For you. You can follow the podcast on all forms of social media at marine Layer Pod. If you go on our Twitter account and click the link tree, it has the links to all of our podcasts and all of our social media for you to follow along as well. For Lyle Goldstein, I'm TJ Matthewson. We'll talk to you next week on the Marine Layer Podcast. St