Episode 21: Mariners' Season Predictions

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number twenty one of The Marine Layer Podcast with TJ. Matthewson and Lyle Goldstein. On today's pod a bonus episode. It's our season predictions episode. We have some Vegas odds. We have some fangrafts projections for the Mariners for twenty twenty three. We'll take a look at those see if anything sticks out, overs unders, however else you want to look at the twenty twenty three season, we'll give our predictions for how we think it will roll out. That's all we got, so let's get it rolling. Amy, welcome you into this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast on Wednesday, March twenty second. When this episode comes out on Friday the twenty fourth, the regular season opener will be less than a week away, which also means emotion free takes and analysis on this podcast will also be one hundred percent gone. 00:01:02 Speaker 2: Be revered. 00:01:05 Speaker 3: You see, we've been sitting here all calm and stoic all off season breaking things down from an analytical standpoint. When this season gets going like there will still be some of that, but you'll probably see more emotion from us be poured into this pod on a weekly basis. I mean, for our listeners. You should see some of the texts that TJ and I'll send back and forth to each other over the course of a season. I'm trying to think we've almost started our own two person code and language over text during these Mariners games. And nothing more I can think of than either when there's an injury or somebody gives up a nuke of a home run and one of us will just send about ten periods dot dot dot dot dot dot dot in a text to each other, and we both know what it means. 00:01:49 Speaker 2: It's it's Morse code, exactly. 00:01:53 Speaker 1: It's it's what if you had to think, what would have episode has sounded like on let's say, like June seventeenth, twenty twenty two, I mean, I probably would have cussed a lot, right. I think the Mariners were trending towards I think that was right before they lost what four or five at home to the Angels and fell twenty or sit and fell I forgot how far under five hundred ten. They had their worst record of the season on June twentieth last year, before you know, going on that, going on the twenty two of twenty five, and and and putting that all behind them, But I just just prepare yourselves. I remember April especially right, I think April is a time for a lot of a lot of hot takes, to say the least. 00:02:42 Speaker 2: There were, There were some, there were, there were some. 00:02:45 Speaker 1: I can very remember specifically one week thinking the Mariners offense last year was going to be a top five unit in baseball, to then the next two weeks after that in April where they they couldn't score a run it you know it to let let's just say things might get off the rails. They might, they might, but hey, fans perspective, that's what we bring. 00:03:13 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm interested to see where it goes. Yea, if we've been talking last June, we'd be talking about how the season was destroyed. So thank god we started it in the off season. 00:03:21 Speaker 1: I know a little more stoic, and the only thing that really gets us riled up is spending. But I think that's that's the case to everyone. Let's look at these numbers, lyle for our preseason predictions. I want to start right off the top with the one that everyone is most concerned with. Draftking says the Mariners over under win total at eighty seven and a half, a little bit higher than their number from last year, which I do not remember off. 00:03:43 Speaker 2: The top of my head. 00:03:44 Speaker 1: But eighty seven and a half after two consecutive ninety win seasons is what Draftking sets the Mariners number at. I know what I'm I would pick for this number. But what would you say looking ahead to this twenty twenty three season. 00:03:59 Speaker 3: Okay, so we're going right to the projected win total. I would have to think this is over right. I mean, the last two years they've won ninety games. The twenty twenty one roster was not as good as the twenty twenty two roster, and I would say the twenty twenty two roster is almost certainly not as good as the twenty twenty three roster. So look, you can't project injuries. We don't know if the starters will stay healthy all year, but just looking at the team on paper, it feels like they should absolutely be over eighty seven and a half wins. 00:04:28 Speaker 1: I'm with you on this. I think it's a pretty easy over even if they're not quite as healthy. Like, the roster's better, right, The Mariners got to ninety wins last year, not only because the roster is better than twenty one but because they had the best health of any starting rotation in baseball, which will not repeat itself this year. There would be a Mariners starter that misses that misses a start with an injury, no odds on that. I would have hammered that if that was an option, but DraftKings does not make that an option. Regardless though the Mariners, even with the balance schedule, they are going to win over eighty seven and a half games, I would be very floored if they're not. They don't win eighty seven and a half games this year. So I guess that's easy, a quick, easy thought. I mean, if you want to hear our thoughts on why that, I mean, just go listen to literally every other episode we've done, so I think we do a pretty good job of breaking it down and this is this is just our predictions here. So another thing to that, Lyle, I mean adding on they're minus one fifty to make the playoffs. That means betting one hundred and fifty to win one hundred to make the playoffs, which is a favorable number, which means DraftKings thinks, yes, the Mariners will be making the playoffs again this year. I agree, And you could probably say in two seconds that yes, you agree to. 00:05:45 Speaker 3: I would agree. There's going to be six playoff spots. You would have to think the Mariners can grab one of them. Whether it's the division or not, we'll get to that in a minute, but they should absolutely be one of the six best teams in the American League. 00:06:00 Speaker 1: Oh, Glenn DraftKings agrees with US winning the division plus three point twenty. They are second behind Houston, who's minus one seventy five. To win the American League West a bit of. 00:06:09 Speaker 2: A tall task. 00:06:12 Speaker 3: Yeah, this one is where it gets not even tricky, but just a little more uphill. My money's on. No, look, Houston lost Erlander, they still added Jose Abreu. There's still going to be a really, really good team, probably the best team in baseball. You never know. But if I had to put my money somewhere, it would be on the Astros to win the division. 00:06:33 Speaker 1: Sixteen games is a lot to make up. Jerry Depoto, if we had them on here would say, well, you know, it was sixteen games, but you look at this here, and you look at this there, and you look at all this and these factors, and it really wasn't like sixteen games. But in reality, the Mariners, even with luck factor and health factor for both teams, so we'll probably not gain sixteen games on the Astros. That's that's a pretty tall task asking them, and it's a pretty big gap between plus three twenty and minus one seventy five. So DraftKings and all the all the people in Vegas who build those nice, big hotels make a lot of money, understand that the Astros are probably with about ninety five percent certainty winning the American League West this year. 00:07:16 Speaker 2: I would I would be. 00:07:17 Speaker 1: Really floored if anybody besides Houston wins the American League West. I don't know if people think that's a hot take. It's it's not a hot take, so I'm not meaning it to be a hot take. That's that's that. That is what will probably happen. A couple other more long shots. Lyle that we could really just dream of plus nine hundred to win the American League plus nineteen hundred to win the World Series. It's just it's steep, right, We're not out where. I don't think either of us are gonna are gonna say in this episode the Mariners are winning the World Series this year, because I think we're a little a little more, a little more resolved than that. 00:07:54 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I'd love to see it, but seems like some tall odds. I mean, just counting the odds here, there's one, two, four, six, eight nine, they'd be like tied for tenth and odds to win the World Series. So some impossible and you never know what can happen in October. But again, if you're just going off early season projections and where you want to kind of spend your money toward, feels like a tall task. 00:08:19 Speaker 1: And you can always cook up a scenario where it's like, well, if the Mariners did this and matched up with this and pitched this guy and ran their bullpen like this, and the lineup hit like this, and well, yeah we could. You could probably cook your way into the World Series. But as we see the team right now, have not seen them play this twenty twenty three team play in real live games together that matter. Spring training does not count real live games that matter. I don't think we can make that assumption here on this on this episode of the podcast. So I guess to wrap all this, you know, win stuff up, Lile, What is your projection of what the Mariners do this year? Win wise, and where they would end up. 00:09:03 Speaker 3: People can hold me to this, because again, it's probably gonna be wrong. I wouldn't say my early season projections are usually really good. Last year I thought the Yankees might miss the playoffs, and they did not. I'm gonna say, though, when ninety three games finished second in the AL West and lose either in the ALDS again or the ALCS. 00:09:28 Speaker 2: I'll go a little bit below you. 00:09:30 Speaker 1: I'm gonna say ninety one and seventy one probably grab the first wild card, host a series, host a wildcard series, losing the division series again, probably to Houston. 00:09:43 Speaker 3: So let me just say this. Do I think there's a real world this year where the Mariners could be the second best team in the American League? Yeah? I do, behind the Astros. I mean, the Yankees are already already pretty banged up. The Blue Jays, I mean, are good, but the Mariners beat him last year. I think there's a world of the Marria be the second best team in the AL. But again, everything runs through Houston. That's gonna make or break it. 00:10:06 Speaker 1: And if you can't beat Houston, especially down the stretch of the season, we saw in the second half of the season, I mean you put the two teams on the same fields and Houston won nine of ten right from All Star break on against THEMS. 00:10:18 Speaker 2: Is that the right number? 00:10:21 Speaker 3: I think so, I mean that sounds about right. And then obviously went three to zero in the divisional series. I mean they're a. 00:10:26 Speaker 1: Tough that was including the divisional series. 00:10:29 Speaker 3: Oh, then, yeah, that does sound right. I mean we've seen it. I mean you see it when you watch these games live, Like I always say it, playing against the Astros, trying to beat them in one game legitimately feels like climbing Mount Everest, Like every single out you have to earn to get feels like the hardest out you've ever worked for. That's how good they are. 00:10:50 Speaker 1: So ninety three wins for you, ninety one for me, I think that's where we're set at, which I think is I think a pretty reasonable expectation. Again, I think the Mariners roster is better, which could shoot them over the ninety wins they had the last two years, but in a little bit of injury regression could bring them back a little bit and you might see some starts from a guy who's not scheduled to start again. The Mariners did not have a single starter who was scheduled to start miss a single start last year. That is almost unheard of, and that's gonna change. And that's one of the biggest factors in terms of of win of of of a win total swinging for a team as the season goes. 00:11:28 Speaker 3: Yeah, and the good news is they do have some more depth this year between flexen side note don't trade them, Bryce Miller, a couple other minor leaguers, so that would be good. But yeah, those guys may be relied upon. Okay, moving on here over to some of the player projections. These are kind of fun and I've got one that I'm really kind of eyeing at here. They have Julio at thirty and a half home runs here in twenty twenty three. Where are you feeling on that regard? 00:12:01 Speaker 2: That's tough. 00:12:03 Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to go. I'm gonna go unders. That's are you really it is a tall task? Yeah, I'll you can mark me down is under. 00:12:11 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:12:12 Speaker 1: I don't call me a hater, but I feel like he just might get pitched. People are gonna start respecting enough to pitch around him. 00:12:19 Speaker 2: I think. 00:12:19 Speaker 1: So there's not me hating on Julio he's He's projected for five and a half wins this year, which is incredible, but thirty it's a lot. It's a lot of Homer's. Maybe if Manfred deadens the baseball more this year with like his little his little gremlins behind the scenes, like do everything possible to make it impossible to hit home runs. If he hits twenty nine, like, I'll be right, and I would still say, man, that's a really good season. 00:12:48 Speaker 3: How he gets pitched is a fair take to have on this. So yeah, I mean he may get way way more respecting guys may pitch around him more. So that's something to take into account. And yeah, nobody can predict what Rob Manford's gonna do behind seeds. I mean, good luck. I guess my theory on it. And the reason I'm going to go over here is Julio played one hundred and thirty two games last year. He hit twenty eight balls over the fence. Feel like if he plays one hundred and fifty to one hundred and fifty five and stays healthy this year, feel like another two are in the cards, especially considering he basically didn't hit a home run until the month of May. I like if it's up to me, I'm going over. 00:13:27 Speaker 1: Okay, that's like, that's a fair assumption. I do have one, an over under total I like a little bit better than Julio's hom run total, which seems about where he will be this year, like within the margin of error. Do you know one that I think is kind of absurd given he stays healthy. Robbie rays strikeout total is two hundred and five and a half. Take your mortgage and put it on that and you're done. You're good, You're in the clear, and you're going over yo. 00:13:59 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean that is what Robbie Ray does best. He strikes guys out, and especially with this new splitter, you'd have to think some more are going to accrue for him. So I'm with you. I'm going over on Robbie Ray strikeouts as long as he's healthy. 00:14:15 Speaker 1: I just don't I don't see a world where Robbie Ray pitches one hundred and seventy innings and doesn't strike out over two hundred and six batters. That that does not compute how he wouldn't do that. I mean last year had an off year and struck out more guys than that. I mean, you're just asking for him to go out there every fifth day and start I don't know, twenty eight games. I mean, even in his bad years, Robbie Ray, if I can, you know, find his season by season strikeouts, which Fangrafts loves to throw their numbers all over the place. 00:14:46 Speaker 2: I mean, look, I got it. 00:14:47 Speaker 1: An off year last year, I got it. I mean two hundred and twelve, two forty eight, two thirty five to eighteen two eighteen in seasons he has pitched a full healthy season and has started at least twenty eight games. He's eclipse that mark every time. I'm banking Robbie Ray to start twenty eight games for the Mariners this year, so I'm also banking on him to go over and oh, by the way, he's been his velocity has been up in spring training two, which bodes very well for his fastball and getting strikeouts. 00:15:14 Speaker 3: Yeah, let's remember this guy, entering twenty twenty two had the highest k per nine in the history of baseball. I mean even now it's come down a little bit and he doesn't hold it anymore. But this guy's averaged eleven strikeouts per nine over his career. He should absolutely hit two hundred and six or more if he's healthy. Okay, another total I like on here Luis Castillo's strikeout odds he's got. They've got him at one ninety and a half for twenty twenty three. This probably feels around the ballpark he's in. But where do you lean on this one? 00:15:49 Speaker 2: This one is really tough. 00:15:51 Speaker 1: I'll giving he's healthy, I'm gonna probably go over, but it is this is actually within the margin of era online Robbie Ray, I don't. I don't think Robbie Ray's really within the margin of era. I think this is right smack on for Luis, because Luis has the strikeout stuff but doesn't necessarily always get the strikeouts as the as this course of a game goes along. So I'll lean over because I'm high on Luis's stuff, but I'm not put my mortgage on this one. 00:16:24 Speaker 3: That's probably where I stand. I'm gonna go the slide over. Just what he's done with his fastball over the last year, which we've talked about so much over the last few weeks, Like I just don't get it. I don't get how it's improved that much, but it has. It's right on paper, right in front of you it has, and if that sustains into twenty twenty three and his change up gets any better than it did last year, because usually that's his best pitch. So if that returns to form a little bit, I feel like he should go over as long as he's healthy. 00:16:53 Speaker 1: Probably because then you're you're you're saying two plus strikeout pitches and that usually leans over over two hundred strikeouts. And even again, even pitching one hundred and seventy innings, that's like that's a slightly above average strikeout right nowadays for that, So that yeah out, Probably that's probably right. Okay, here's some more things like, oh, you were going to seg we were segueing to the same thing. Another thing that might be worth a full time investment. I don't think this would be it for me, judging what I said about his home run total. But MVP odds, Julio is plus seven hundred for MVP this year. Wow, what do you think about that? 00:17:39 Speaker 3: Just for people's perspective, look at how Vegas and just third parties are viewing him. All of a sudden, here are the guys that have better MVP odds than Julio, who's twenty two years old entering twenty twenty three, Aaron Judge, the raigning winner, shoe Heyo Tani the best player in the world, and last, but not least, Mike Trout maybe the best player of this generation. Those are the three guys that are about Julio. I don't think he wins it in twenty twenty two, but if you wanted to take somebody that wasn't the main three, I mean plus seven hundred, there are decent odds. So honestly, I wish Julio was a little bit lower. If he was like seventh or eighth, that might be worth a bet. 00:18:22 Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be a little bit better value per se. The only problem is he's not beating a healthy show Hey in an MVP race. Even if even if the Mariners win like ninety eight games and Julio hits forty five home runs, if Shohy plays full time as a pitcher and a hitter again this year before he hits free agency, He's winning it like it doesn't matter. If the Angels wins seventy nine games again, He's he's winning MVP, which doesn't lead me to put real cash down on Julio's future MVP value. But I mean, it is a thought, and it would make me feel a lot better about huls chances of winning an MVP if show Hay left the American League. 00:19:04 Speaker 3: Here's how I look at al MVP voting, or just show hey Otani MVP voting for the rest of his prime going forward and tell me if I'm off on this, But this is basically how I view it. Every single year, Otani's basically got the MVP in his hands, unless somebody does something ridiculous enough to snatch it away from him, like Aaron Judge hitting sixty two home runs and breaking records. Other than that, I think it's Otani's just about every year. 00:19:31 Speaker 2: Or voter fatigue. 00:19:32 Speaker 1: I mean, we see it in the NBA all the time with voter fatigue, but we don't know quite to the level of voter fatigue that baseball writers have. It hasn't been we haven't had an example like a Lebron James to have voter fatigue on in Major League Baseball. It's really kind of bounced around. When Mike Trout has been healthy for a full season, it's usually been him, so that would be the closest example. But that's something we'll have to see as we go down the line. 00:20:02 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agreed. Okay, Cy Young odds here, al Cy Young odds here where the Mariners stand. Robbie Ray actually is the best odds of any of the five in the rotation at plus sixteen hundred. Lis Castillo is plus seventeen hundred, Logan Gilbert's plus eighteen hundred, George Kirby's plus five thousand. I've got one on this list that jumps off the page to me, but I'll throw it to you first. 00:20:26 Speaker 1: Well, I know what yours is, so I'll just say it. I'll say, and you can add on behind me. George Kirby at plus five thousand, I think is pretty absurd. I think it's just because they're low on his innings, to be honest. If you go look at Fangrafts, they have George Kirby projected for in the ballpark of one hundred and thirty innings this year, which does not win you the sign Young. However, if George Kirby pitches one hundred and eighty innings, pitches fifty more innings than that, that plus five thousand value is incredible for George Kirby because he's probably he does probably have a better chance to win cy Young than at least Gill a very least Logan Gilbert in front of him. Nothing against Logan at plus eighteen hundred, but Kirby at plus five thousand to Gilbert at plus eighteen hundred is kind of silly, to be honest. You compare the two and their their repertoires. So at the very least Kirby's in front of that. Otherwise, I mean, it's kind of hard for me to would be actual to actually be confident in Robbie Ray Luis Castillo to win the Cy Young. I mean, the way I look at it, are any of these guys going to be better than Garrett Cole, Jacob de Gram, sho Hey O Tani, Dylan Seze, Carlos Hordan, Shane Bieber or Shane McClanahan. 00:21:34 Speaker 3: I mean, if every single thing clicks for Castile, I guess there's an outside outside shot. But obviously first answer is probably not. 00:21:45 Speaker 2: Right. So that's how I think about it. When Robbie Ray won his Cy. 00:21:48 Speaker 1: Young, it was a very down year for those you know headline guys. I mean, Shohy wasn't in the cy Young conversation. It was essentially him and Garrett Cole, and Ray had the edge on him in the final month of the season, and that really pushed it over the edge. It would take a Robbie Ray performance kind of like that in his twenty twenty one season to even sniff it. But even I don't even know if say, Robby Ray puts up that exact season he did hadd in twenty twenty one this year in twenty twenty three, I don't think that wins the cy Young over over at Garrett Cole. I don't think he would win it over a show Hey, I don't think it would if de Gram's healthy, I don't think it would win it over Jacob de Gram. I mean, Dylan Cees this year arguably had a better season than Robbie Ray did in twenty one. So there's a lot of factors there. And it's not because the Merinith pitcher aren't good enough. I just think the American League has some very, very very good pitchers. 00:22:48 Speaker 3: That's about right. The one I was looking at. You said it, George Kirby at plus five thousand odds. I mean, we talked to Jason Churchill, which that interview is gonna air this upcoming Wednesday, and we talked about George Kirby for a bit, and he was calling him modern day Greg Maddox of everything clicks. I mean, Greg Maddox is one of the best pictures of all time. And I'm not saying that's gonna click in your two for Kirby, I'm not saying it's not either. So if it does. Plus five thousand odds for a guys that throws one hundred miles an hour, doesn't walk anybody, and has like six to seven pitches feels like a decent bet, especially for like five bucks. 00:23:26 Speaker 1: Yeah, if you have five bucks and you're a true degenerate, then go ahead. So I think that does it for our that that does it for our DraftKings projections. 00:23:40 Speaker 2: I try. 00:23:40 Speaker 1: I was hoping there were some more Lyle, but there's really the Draft Kings only does so much. They highlight a couple guys from each team usually in all of these in all of these rankings. So now we have to go onto our projections and see what fan Grafts and the Zips projections thinks of the Mariners in twenty twenty three. There's a lot of really interesting things here. 00:24:00 Speaker 2: Lyle. 00:24:01 Speaker 1: Let's start off with the wins above replacement leaders scheue. We yeah, we'll start off with that. I mean they have Julio five and a half wins this year. The thing that stuck out to me the most in wins of replacement. They think JP Crawford's going to be the third most valuable position player on the team and have over three wins above replacement this year. 00:24:21 Speaker 3: So they're banking on his defense going back up, and they're banking on Colton Wong's defense going back up too, because Wong is fifth at two point seven. So look, you can rack up a lot of war defensively, and if those guys are gonna do it with the glove, they'll do it with the glove. But yeah, like tay Oscar doesn't play great defense, right, which is why his projected war is a little bit lower. The one that stood out to me is call it three wins. I mean, he put up four last year, only hit like two ten. He's gonna get some help from the help from the shift going away. He feels like he should be higher than that. That's the one of those five that stood out to me was cal Raleigh at three wins. I bet he goes over. 00:25:04 Speaker 1: It just seems like they're not as high in as power this year, as you can see. If there's anything you want to take over and zips, we'll get to Aohney O swaz here in a second. But they project cal Raley for twenty two home runs this season. I mean, he struck out nearly thirty percent of the time last year and essentially stunk until June and still managed to hit, still manage to lead the Mariners in home runs last year. So I would say there's a pretty good chance cal Raly hits over twenty two home runs this year. 00:25:38 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you. Or well he led catchers, right, he let Mariners catchers or no, sorry MLB catchers and home runs because Julio hit twenty eight and right I. 00:25:48 Speaker 1: Was blanking on the number. I'm going to click over to it here in a second. 00:25:53 Speaker 3: Yeah, so Raley led MLB catchers and home runs last year, and if he hits twenty two home runs next year's I mean, this year, that's a good year. But yeah, I would probably take the over on that ro they project him. 00:26:06 Speaker 1: What's the projection if I'm at one hundred and seventeen games this year on Steamer on zips, they have him at one hundred and seventeen games and twenty two home runs and one hundred and nineteen games. Last year he had twenty seven with a twenty nine percent strikeover right, See, he cuts down on that strikeout rate two percent and plays just as many games. You're not telling me he's gonna he's gonna He's not gonna eclipse twenty seven home runs. 00:26:32 Speaker 3: Yeah he should. I mean, I guess you can't ever project for sure, like you never know, you can't say it definitively this second, But yeah, I would think he goes over twenty two home runs. And again he was still like one of the team leaders last year, between Julio hitting twenty eight and Suarez hitting thirty one, Like, those guys all have real power. And there's I mean, there's a chance Riley could leave the club and home runs this year. So yeah, if it was up to me, I'm going over on his home runs. He plays good defense, I'm going over on the three wins. But next category here, WRC plus leaders for the Mariners. Okay, we'll start to rip through some of these categories here a little bit more quickly. Julio is projected to lead the Mariners at one thirty seven. Ty France has won twenty eight, Taoscars won twenty three, Dylan Moore's one thirteen, Colton Wong won ten. Are there any of those that stood out particularly in your eyes? 00:27:23 Speaker 1: They're pretty high on Colton Wong, to be honest, I mean, so they have him. If we're taking a look at the leaderboards, they have Colton Wong up near the top in WRC plus and wins above replacement right, I don't even know if we highlighted him early in that top five. They have him top five on the MS this year this upcoming season, wins above replacement and WRC plus. That's a good thing for the Mariners. If he actually plays up to his projections by zips, then I think Mariners fans will be very happy, especially with this injury to Dylan Moore. Then he'll miss time when Opening Day rolls around next week. 00:27:59 Speaker 3: Three last four years, Colton Wong has put up a WRC plus of one oh nine or better. I know he doesn't have a ton of home run power, but he does produce offensively, so I guess I wouldn't be shocked if he was fifth or sixth on the team and waited runs created plus I guess the one that stood out in my mind or not stood out, but just looking at ty France because so one twenty eight right, which is right about where he's been each of the last two years, and I it's just so hard for me to predict which ty France were gonna get. And maybe it's the ty France that puts up a round a one twenty five to one thirty WRC plus again. But I just wonder, could we see a full season of ty France of what we got from the first half of twenty twenty two, or are we gonna see more of ty France in terms of what we got in the second half of twenty twenty two where he was really out of his approach and missing a lot of pitches. So I don't really know where that's gonna land. 00:28:53 Speaker 1: I think that's more of a safe guess from fangrafts. I mean, they're they're guessing that it might it's probably gonna be a similar trajectory for him, but don't be fooled. I mean, there's upside in ty France's bat this year to go like one in that category, which would be incredible for the Mariners if they could get a one forty out of them. 00:29:11 Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, I mean that would that would be the difference maker in the world. I mean, if he's second on the team behind Julio, and there's two guys with one forty, WRC pluses are better and then Taoscar's not far behind or Col's not far behind. Again, this lineup could get deeper this year, and we've talked about it a lot over the course of the offseason. So stolen bases isn't a category where the EMS have exactly thrived, especially last season. Their projections are a little low, which is to be expected. Julio's projected twenty seven, Dylan Moore twenty, Sam Haggerty nineteen, Colton Long fourteen. I guess I'll same thing here. What are you looking at among the MS guys in terms of stolen bases? 00:29:50 Speaker 1: Well, I don't know if Dylan Moore is getting twenty now, he's going to miss time. And it's it's so hard to look at to really judge this because there's one full time player on this list in top five, it's Julio and he's gonna lead it, right, So this is kind of like a oh well, duh list when you really think about it. 00:30:12 Speaker 3: I guess I'll kind of answer a question with a question, because Julio is the one that stood out to me the most on this list, just in terms of how much are they gonna let him steal? Are they going to kind of reel it back this year to try to avoid injuries and not let him slide head first a bunch and maybe we see him steal fifteen bases? 00:30:29 Speaker 1: I would say probably twenty bases is a good mark for Julio. I mean, he gives the speed to steal forty if he wants, But I think I would say that outside the base at like twenty, that's what I That's what I pretty commonly say. It's not like they're not gonna let him steal, but they are gonna be able to just a little more cautious. 00:30:46 Speaker 3: That's probably right, okay. Pitcher war next category. Police Castillo's has the highest projection three and a half, George Kirby's at two and a half, Logan Gilbert to two point three, Robbie Ray at one point six, Ryce Miller at one and a half. Those are your top five mariners. Pitcher War projections. 00:31:06 Speaker 1: DraftKings a little bit higher on Robbie Ray than fan grafts is, So you know, I'd be kind of disappointed if Robbie Ray came out had a one point six wins above replacement this year, especially for how good he's looked in spring and how we think he's really set in and become comfortable with the Mariners. Otherwise, I mean, this is probably right in the ballpark. You really to be a high war pitcher, I mean, you really really need to be good. So they kind of just have middling predictions for George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. I can't too confidently say Gilbert will jump that mark. And again on Kirby's innings. The fan grafts is pretty low on Kirby's innings, so it's that one you can just shrug app of Bryce Miller at one and a half. I mean, they think he'll be at least an above a replacement level pitcher when he comes into the majors, depending on how much he pitches in the BIGS. That has yet to be seen. Zips projects him have pitchers pulled up, I have hitters will click the pitcher's button, and Bryce Miller is they have him. I think a little bit over one hundred innings this year, but I'll get you that actual number here in a second when it loads. 00:32:11 Speaker 3: Okay, while you're looking that up, while you're looking at. 00:32:14 Speaker 1: An innings one hundred nineteen for Bryce, and. 00:32:17 Speaker 3: So it's just a matter of where he gets the innings, because there's a chance he just comes up this year and pitches out of the bullpen. The way he gets those innings and a cruise. That type of war is either if there's an injury or if the Mariners get sick of Marco Gonzalez, which I mean either possible, and Bryce Miller may find his way into the rotation at some point this year. Also, if he found his way into the rotation and a crew to one and a half woar as a rookie, that means he had a really good rookie year. So that one jumped off the page to me. I guess I have my questions about where that war stems from, but hey, don't let me hold him back. If he's going to be another Mariner's arm that comes up and dominates this year for the third year in a row. Between having a Logan Gilbert and twenty one on at George Kirby in twenty two and Bryce Miller in twenty three. Look, sign me right up, okay overall for. 00:33:06 Speaker 1: Okay, I'll say just one last note here on Bryce Miller. So they have him tab for like a three eight three ERA one hundred and nineteen innings. They don't have this. This is I will say the fangraft's outlook is a little just a slightly bit clunky. I wish there were more numbers here on one tab. So they have Bryce Miller at one hundred and thirteen strikeouts in one hundred and nineteen inox I I would say if he comes up, it'll probably be a little higher than. 00:33:36 Speaker 3: That strikeout totals. Robbie Ray leaves it at one ninety five, Castillo projected one seventy seven, Gilbert Won sixty four, Kirby one thirty two. Is there anything I mean, we're kind of rolling through these now, and we've talked about a lot of these guys in depth already. I mean, is it safe to say Robbie should be the team leader in strikeouts? 00:33:58 Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean that looks right. 00:34:00 Speaker 1: I mean you can correlate it out to innings projections as we've said, but overall, I mean that looks right. I would bump Kirby up maybe a little bit, but again that's just tied to his innings. 00:34:10 Speaker 3: Let's just tie in innings here to this segment too, because we're talking about projected strikeouts, the projected innings as it has Logan Gilbert leading at just under one seventy five, Castillo just under one seventy two, Robbie Ray just under one sixty eight, Marco one fifty five and two thirds, and Kirby won thirty six and two thirds. Yeah, so to that ratio, Ray doesn't throw the most innings, but one hundred and sixty seven innings probably still means about twenty five to twenty eight starts, and like you said earlier, if he makes that many starts, he should strike out two hundred and five or more guys. 00:34:45 Speaker 1: They have Robbie Ray tads for twenty nine starts this year, so I mean, right, that's right, that's right in the ballpark. But they haven't given up twenty nine home runs. So that's probably where the the wins above replacement gets gets a little dropped. 00:35:01 Speaker 3: Well, that is kind of his hamstring. He strikes a lot of guys out, but sometimes he gives up hard contact and we'll see if that comes down at all this year. Er. Now, this is including everybody, starters and relievers, Andres Munos is projected to lead the team at two to eighty, Luis Castillo at two ninety nine, Diego Castillo at three forty nine, Kirby at three point fifty six, Brash at three sixty three, Gilbert at three sixty six. So this might give us a chance to talk about a couple of the reliever projections here. 00:35:32 Speaker 1: Diego Castillo very very interesting. We said we were still a little bit skeptical of Diego in our reliever preview, but Fangrafts tabs him to having a pretty decent reliever season on a three and a half ERA for a reliever is eh, it's okay. But in terms of these projections, I mean, he's top three on the MS, So that's that's a that's a good thing for Diego Castillo. And then Matt Brash that's again probably where he'll be at if his fast gets hit around a little bit, I would say from here and hearing from Chris lang In about his fastball is really just kind of flat, and if he leaves it over the plate a few too many times, that could lead to some home runs, and then that era I would be sitting about three point six. I mean, really good relievers are anywhere from two and a half to one. Right, So go off of that metric. 00:36:20 Speaker 3: Where Diego Castillo's FIP and XCRA sit. I don't know at the end of twenty twenty three, but I mean it's it's sure possible he could have a three four to three five VRA. That's where he's been in the last couple of seasons. I mean, I'm gonna be honest, Brash might not have the best fastball in terms of run value, but I'm sorry, projected three sixty three era, I'm going under that. I mean, he put up like a two thirty five as a reliever last year, and he was throwing fastballs out of a bullpen. Didn't seem to affect him that much. Yeah, I'm going under. 00:36:51 Speaker 1: All right. And then Moonyo is leading. I mean that doesn't really surprise me. 00:36:54 Speaker 2: He is. 00:36:55 Speaker 1: He is unbelievable. It's I think it'll be closer to two than it'll be to two eight. 00:37:01 Speaker 3: I'm pretty confident in that. For Munos, I would agree. Okay, the last category we have to get to here, and it's a little bit broader in terms of Mariners, season projections, players standouts. Okay, there's a there's a couple guys on here that we tabbed Gino, ta Oscar Calnick, Tom Murphy. I don't know if there's one guy you want to talk about specifically or not. 00:37:28 Speaker 1: I don't like how low they are on Gino. I'm not sure what about gino season last year gave them a sense that he is going to regress mightily and jump from a one thirty WORC plus that he put up last year to a one O eight this year. I mean, they really must think his strikeout rate is going to be is going to stay above thirty percent. I think Gino could bring it down a little bit, uh for this year, maybe not over thirty. So I mean that's where my optimism comes from. But they have Fangrafts as a swares at two oh nine, three oh two four thirteen twenty eight home runs two and a half wins above replacement, which if you just look at those two three numbers in the end, one O eight WRC plus twenty eight home runs two point five wins above replacement. Yeah, okay, but I don't think Gino Swarz is only gonna have an on base percentage of UH three to OHO two. I think that's kind of it's it's a little bit low. 00:38:23 Speaker 3: And a one o eight WRC plus. Again, if these were betting odds, give me the over. Like I mean, guy had the second highest WRC plus on the team last year. I don't expect it to drop that much, especially considering toward the end of the year his strikeout rate did drop. I mean, he started leaving a lot more pitches off the plate and his strikeout rate went down. So there's a world that could go down to the twenty five percent area in twenty twenty three, I guess. 00:38:53 Speaker 1: You know, say, how about ti Oscar hernandez Lyle. I mean they have him as a that's a pretty good season, I would say. I mean, again, I always like the on base percentage to be a little bit higher, which I think they might be a little bit low on a slash line. In terms of what the Mariners expect, and especially just being a contract year for him as the premier bat in the next year's free agent class, I think he has his expectation set a little higher than has projected two fifty three, three oh eight, four sixty two, one twenty three WRC plus, twenty nine home runs and two and a half wins. 00:39:23 Speaker 3: About replacement, it is crazy with Machado signing the extension that after Otani, Taoscar really might be the top player on the market next year. I mean in terms of position players, it's a week class after Otani. 00:39:36 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:39:37 Speaker 3: The thing about Taoskar is he doesn't walk a whole lot, so it's hard for him to ever have a really high on base percentage. I'm with you that I think it should be higher than about three oho eight. I'd also think is WRC plus in total can be higher than one twenty three, although that might correlate with a higher on base percentage. I would again, this is another one where I mean, if he puts up a one twenty three WRC plus, that's like, that's a good year. But I think fangrafts in general seems to go a little low on their projections. That's what I've always noticed about looking at Zip's projections. They aim low, So I wouldn't be shocked if he outperforms it. 00:40:13 Speaker 1: Right a little bit more on the safer side. They're not out here to make a bold prediction. They're here to set probably the median of what a good season looks or what a season would look like for him, which fine, right, a median season, I would say for Tioskarnandan's there's probably be one to twenty three. 00:40:30 Speaker 3: And the last guy on here is we wrap this up, Jared Kelnick. They project him to put up a slash line of two twenty three, two ninety four forty three a one zho five WRC plus twenty two home runs, one point four f WAR and a twenty five point four percent strikeout rate. Look again, fangrafts airs on the side of caution, and to be honest, if this is what Kelnick does this next year, that is an above average season and a real big league player. I do think he can be better than that, especially the way he looked this spring. I don't know why Fangraft doesn't love his defense, but he is a good defender. So yeah, this is another guy where again like you'll take that season to the bank, just like you would with the projected year for Taoscar But again, I think he can do better. 00:41:19 Speaker 1: They have him behind Taoscar Hernandez and aj Pollock in terms of defensive projection, just like it's really hard to project defense at the beginning of the year, but that's what we're looking at, Like that's really, uh, that's really where he at. Where he's at. They project him to at the same wins above replacement as Mason McCoy and behind Colton Wong's brother, believe it or not, which I think they kind of just act as if everyone was playing on the big league roster for an entire season and then and then average it out, which okay, that's fine. I think the biggest part was the strikeout rate twenty four and a half percent, or sorry, twenty five point four percent, which would be a revelation. That's probably the biggest number. If that number actually gets hit, then I think the Mariners have really done their job and helping Jared Kinnick along. And I think he's done a good job of really limiting his weakness. And again, if he ends up slugging over four hundred this year and knocking twenty two home runs, I don't really think ye if he does that and puts up plus defense, I really don't think there would be much of a complaint. 00:42:25 Speaker 3: If he puts up plus defense, which again I think he will, considering he was really good in the outfield last year when he was playing the corners. He's just not a center fielder. Like his rookie year. He was playing center field and it was kind of a tough go for him. But in the corners he really profile as well. So, like you said, if that's his offensive profile and the good defense, he's probably closer to three wins than he is to a win and a half. So sign me right up for that slash line if that's what he puts up, although again, he could do better than that, so it'll be pretty fun to see. But is there anything else you kind of want to touch on here, because I think we've covered just about all the Yeah. 00:43:00 Speaker 1: I'm trying to comb and see if there's anyone that I think we might be a little too high on our fangrafts might be, but I don't think so. I mean, they have Tom Murphy. I mean we could touch on this last line. Tom Murphy playing seventy eight games this year, which would be really good for the Mariners if they can get Tom Murphy in there and put up one point eight wins above replacement, that would be that would be a godsend. I mean, I'm not saying I'm down on Tom Murphy, but for a guy who we haven't seen play in a considerable chunk of time in quite a while, they you know, they like his offense and his defense. Despite striking out thirty one percent of the time, they still project them ten homers and about two hundred and seventy at bats. That's, you know, that's pretty good. The walk right of about eleven percent. 00:43:44 Speaker 3: If he's on the field, he's a perfect second catcher, especially because he crushes lefties, which is the theme of a lot of Mariners guys this year. I mean, Murphy's gonna hit lefties. Taoscar will hit lefties, Dylan Morrell hit lefties. A J. Pollack will hit lefties. But the question for him is Kenny stay on the field. That's the If he's on the field, I think he's a perfectly fine second catcher. You can throw in at DH sometimes and if that's the line he puts up. If he plays half the year and puts up that projected profile again, that's totally fine with me. 00:44:15 Speaker 1: I'm it's just so funny with these projections. I mean, they project it all as if they spend all year on the major league roster, like Zach DeLoach is projected to have three tenth three tenths of a win above replacement this year for in how many games? 00:44:30 Speaker 2: How many games? One hundred and nine. 00:44:33 Speaker 1: So yeah, it's just kind of weird to look at. That's why, like when like ranking it, it's like who's ranked. It's like, so when like Colton Wung's brother is ranked ahead of Jared Komig, It's like, it's like, we'll put a grain of salt with this. 00:44:46 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, you and I got to see Zach de Looach win a Cape Cod League batting title live back in twenty nineteen. But is he gonna be on the MS roster at some point this year? I'm not so sure. 00:44:58 Speaker 2: I don't know if I ever saw it, Actaloach get a hit. I don't remember. I don't. 00:45:02 Speaker 1: I think we I think our team played him once, so I oh, I don't, and I don't remember if he really did anything in that game. 00:45:09 Speaker 3: To be honest, Oh, he absolutely destroyed us when we'd play him, Like he hit a ball in one of our games, which was at our home park. In Hyennas. It was like one of the farthest hit balls I saw in the league in my two seasons there. Then again, the team I was calling games four was like historically one of the worst teams in the history of the league, and Delotes was just absolutely teeing off on him. But but yeah, look, i'd love to see him do that with a wood bat in Seattle instead of in Hyennas. But I'm just not so sure we'll see it in twenty twenty three or not. But look, this has been a fun show going through some of these projections. We're doing it because, you know, we thought it'd be a good show to do to kind of divvy up where some of the odds are before the start of the season and kind of show where people are looking at the Mariners. But you guys have heard it here. 00:45:51 Speaker 2: First. 00:45:52 Speaker 3: TJ thinks ninety one wins, I said, ninety three wins. Now, where's the actual total going to be? That's what we're gonna have to wait and find out here. But I think that'll just about wrap up this bonus episode in this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. Thanks as always for sticking with us, and thanks for sticking with us for some extra time this week because we thought it'd be a good episode to get in You guys know the drill by now you want to listen to the full podcast, It's on Apple, Spotify, Google, and Amazon. On social media, we're on Twitter, TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod. I am really looking forward to the start of the season. We are almost there. We've got a bunch of fun content coming out for when the season starts. We're going to do a lot more video content. We're going to try to be out in the community. We might have some food reviews coming from the ballpark and maybe some other places as well. We might talk to some fans and do some interviews throughout the year. Like go follow our social media accounts because I think we're going to do some pretty cool stuff when the season starts, and we'd love to have you guys along for the ride. So for TJ. Matthewson, this is Lyle Goldstein. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you next week. 00:47:00 Speaker 1: S