Episode 244: Will Harry Ford Get The Call Soon? + Joe Doyle (Future Stars + The Over-Slot)

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number two forty four of the Marine Layer Podcast. We welcome on recurring guest friend of the show, Joe Doyle from The Overslot and Future Stars. We talk about the Mariners first couple of months of this twenty twenty five season. We have some updates on Mariners prospects. Harry Ford, call Young Jurangelo Sana and we talked a little bit of draft with Joe as we're under two months till the Mariners pick at number three. 00:00:25 Speaker 2: Here's your guys reminder. If you want to stay on top of all of our stuff, just head right over to our website. It's all there, you guys. That's marinelayerpod dot com. That's our website. Go get your merch, Go sign up for our Patreon. We'd love to have you over there. Make sure to go like download, subscribe to all these episodes, whether you're watching or listening, you can do that all at our website. And you can check out our live shows. And a reminder for you guys, our live show. Next live show is this Saturday, May twenty fourth, twelve pm at Queen Anne Beer Hall. We're also doing a watch party immediately following that to watch the Mariners astro so all of that, it's all over at our website. You can go check it out and then follow us all across social media at marine Layer Pod. 00:01:06 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling, and we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast network, recording on Tuesday afternoon, May twentieth. So Lyle, I'm gonna lead this episode off, and I'm gonna ask you a question. So we're recording pregame of Game two between the Mariners and the White Sox. There's inclement weather in the forecast today. Prediction do the Mariners play Game two today? Or do we not miss a game before this episode comes out. 00:01:49 Speaker 2: If they miss a game, you know what's going out on social media. I'll tell you that much. 00:01:53 Speaker 1: Build a roof. 00:01:56 Speaker 3: Good god Man like inclement weather all the time. 00:02:03 Speaker 1: I understand not building a roof on Wrigley, but Rapefield stinks. The least you could do is put a roof on it. Yes, you and I have both been to rape Field before. It's not this most. It's not a glamorous stadium by any means. We'll make it a lot better. Is if you had a nice little retractable roof that kept this wacky weather that the Mariners just so happen every year to play in when they go to Chicago and keep them drying. They can play, you know, play the series, and then I get to watch a bullpen game of Casey Legamina, Casey Lawrence and maybe Jonathan Diaz too, Yes, because I know that's what we really want to watch. 00:02:42 Speaker 2: Rapefield is a bottom five ballpark in baseball, and that might be generous, it is. 00:02:47 Speaker 3: It is a bad stadium. 00:02:49 Speaker 1: And for all of you who have not been to rape Field, not only is the ballpark pretty bland. I think we said this on this podcast before, I'll remind you again. The policy at rate Field is if you don't have a lower level ticket, you cannot walk around on the lower level. They legitimately kick you out of the lower level and make you walk on the level where your ticket is now. 00:03:09 Speaker 2: Can't go explore, dude, not even kick you out. It's you can't even get into the lower level. They like, they push you toward the three hundred level entrance and make it impossible for you to get down to the first level. It's not like there's just stairs you can walk down like a Timobi park or a ramp or an escalator. It's just totally blocked off. It's like, wouldn't you think you would want as many fans as possible down on the lower level these days when you have one hundred people showing up at your games? But no, no, Like if you get a three hundred level ticket, I guess I would understand if you can't sit there, like if they're not gonna let you sit there, and they're close about checking access, access and stuff, which is still dumb, But I guess the fact you cannot walk around the concourse on the one hundred level is nuts. 00:03:55 Speaker 1: You don't want people paying for your best concessions, which all the best concessions at every ballpark or are on the lower level. You don't want people buying that expensive good ballpark food. You don't want people buying beer on the lower level. 00:04:07 Speaker 2: Dude, I guarantee you those insane campfire shakes, which has to be the best thing about the White Sox organization as a whole at this point, are not on the third level. 00:04:17 Speaker 1: And don't you want people buying them? 00:04:18 Speaker 3: Yeah? 00:04:19 Speaker 2: I mean you've seen you guys have all seen the pictures of those insane campfires. 00:04:22 Speaker 1: And they got a new one this year too. 00:04:24 Speaker 2: Yeah, I've never called I've never had one because I think they came out after I saw the stadium and went to a game there a few years ago. But yeah, it's ridiculous the White talks. The White Soxs are an awful organization, and we saw that on Monday when they rolled out the team that they did, the lineup that they did. Luise absolutely diced them up and Julio hits a Grand Slam and that was kind of your Monday game. 00:04:46 Speaker 1: I laughed at the fact that Luis two years later went with the exact same attack plan against the White Sox or he was gonna only throw fastballs, and he rolls into this game as like, yeah, the White Sox are twenty ninth in base against fastballs. I might not throw forty seven fastballs in a row, but I'm gonna throw twenty three and they're not gonna hit them. Even though my fastball doesn't I'm not I don't throw it as hard as I used to, but it's still that much more effective. And even though Luis's had his struggles at some point this year, I mean, dude, you and I could get up on the mound and throw it down the middle to the White Sox and they would struggle to hit it. 00:05:21 Speaker 2: Luisa's fastball was up a little bit in that start. If you want one positive. 00:05:25 Speaker 1: Yeah it was. It was averaging ninety five, which is still down from where it was last year though just for some context. 00:05:31 Speaker 2: Right, although, oh my god, the movement on a couple of those fastballs. I couldn't even believe what I was watching because they got they got red and calculated as forcing fastballs. There's no way that was a for sing fastball. That one that ran way into. I forget which right handed hitter it was one of them ran way in. It was on pitching ninja. It got the swing and miss that that's not a forcing fastball. How was that a foresting fastball. 00:05:57 Speaker 1: It's a forcing fastball with a heck of a lot of armside run, That's what it is. Yeah, I guess it works out, and it's good good for the bearers that they got that to save most of their bullpen for well, they might just have an off day today on Tuesday to be determined at this point, but save most of their bullpen going into Tuesday, and they have a lot of games in a row remaining before they get a day off on Monday when they get home after the Astro series. But that's a good positive given the fact they're gonna have the break in George Kirby this road trip. They're gonna have a bullpen game this road trip, and you know, Logan and Emerson are gonna pitch on the road again. For as well as they have pitched, they are gonna have to pitch away from the most pitcher friendly bullpark in baseball, so you never know what's gonna happen, and your bullpen has had to pitch some higher leverage, higher volume innings like they did on Saturday against the Padres. So it was good to see that from Luis that he got sort of that bulken. He looked comfortable and good and did what he should against that franchise. 00:06:54 Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, and then Julio hit a big Grand Slam. You could kind of feel it coming and that was your game's out. Much more to update about Monday's game other than the Mariners beat up on a really bad team and did what they were supposed to do. And as we sit and record this therefore and oho on the road trip, how much. 00:07:08 Speaker 1: Did you know about Davis Martin entering this. 00:07:11 Speaker 2: Game, so I knew he had had a decent start to the year. I knew the underlying numbers did not exactly scream that it was going to keep up, but. 00:07:23 Speaker 3: It kept up on Monday. 00:07:24 Speaker 2: If you want to ask what I know about the White Sox, you know, aside from the Luis Roberts and the Edgar Carrows, whose actual prospect guys like that, the one guy is Shane Smith because he's been unbelievable this year, and that's who the Mariners are going to see Wednesday. But Davis Martin, to answer your question, yeah, not a lot. 00:07:43 Speaker 1: Yeah, I had none either, in the fact he was pitching into the eighth inning. I didn't take Davis Martin as the guy who'd have the longest start against the Mariners so far this year. 00:07:53 Speaker 2: No, no, And I'll be interested to see what Shane Smith does on Wednesday. So actually, which is why it's important the Mariners actually won the first game of this series because the rubber match of this series isn't gonna be easy. I'm not saying they shouldn't win, but it's not gonna be easy because Shane Smith is almost definitely going to be the White Sox All Star if this keeps up, and. 00:08:12 Speaker 1: They might have to if they don't play the game today, that either they play a double header on Wednesday, which would just screw up the road trip and make this road trip just an undeniable hell, or they're gonna have to dump it to mid August, in which case they throw in a row, they burn a road off day in Chicago. Yeah, I think I ahead that right, and that would not be good. Again, I saw someone tweet it out. It's like fifteen games road games in a row at that point, or just fifteen in a row, which now there's a lot of games again. 00:08:41 Speaker 3: Just build a roof, dude, build a roof. 00:08:45 Speaker 1: Well, what do you think happens first, Jerry Reinsdorf spends one hundred million dollars on a player, or he builds a. 00:08:50 Speaker 2: Roof, the earth ends, the Earth explodes, dude? Talk about talk about Michael Jordan being the biggest save. 00:09:00 Speaker 3: You're on that guy? 00:09:00 Speaker 2: Ever, what would like people already look at him in a terrible light to begin with? Could you imagine if the Trail Blazers had just taken Michael Jordan at too instead of Sambooie and and the ball, Like, what would the Bulls be and how would they be view now? What would the White Sox look like? Now, it'd be just awful all around. 00:09:18 Speaker 1: The Bulls and Timberwolves have probably switched spots now or they'd be on the same tier. 00:09:22 Speaker 2: Yeah, which, Look, if there's any basketball fans listening to this, I'm sure there's some that are gonna say, okay, but the the Timberwolves already or. 00:09:32 Speaker 3: Sorry, the Timberwolves, we were just talking about them. 00:09:34 Speaker 2: The Blazers at the time already had Clyde Drexler, who was a Hall of Fame point guard. They weren't going to necessarily take another guard. Look, make all the arguments you want, I think Blazers fans would be perfectly okay with a backcourt of Michael Jordan and Clyde Drexler instead of having Sambouoi. 00:09:49 Speaker 3: It was a bust. 00:09:50 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean like the Blazers, the Blazers, and I feel bad for any of our friends in Portland that might be listening to this. 00:09:56 Speaker 3: I like, I hate to do this. 00:09:58 Speaker 2: The Blazers have had in their hands, like fanos with infinity stones, the chances to change the entire course of their franchise twice and they fumble the bag twice. Imagine what that franchise looks like if they have Michael Jordan instead of Sambuuie and Kevin Durant instead of Greg Otin. 00:10:15 Speaker 1: Would have been pretty good for them, unfortunately. 00:10:17 Speaker 2: But anyway, I guess that's our basketball talk for this episode. We're gonna get to the bulk of our podcast, which is a really really fun conversation with our friend Joe Doyle where we cover a bunch of stuff. But before that, we're gonna take a quick pause. We're gonna talk to you guys about our friends over at Pagatcha's Pub eighty five, because with baseball season in full swing, we know you guys need spots to go watch games with your friends, So head right on over there. There's awesome food, drinks, games like pool darts, there's a big jukebox in the place. Really, it's a fun spot to hang out. It's a really cool neighborhood bar. Have some awesome specials like the food, and especially like their happy Hour deals, which are three and four dollars drinks, you guys, those are Monday through Friday deals. Happy Hour runs all the way from two to six pm, so you've got more than plenty of time to get in there, get your three and four dollars drinks, plan a time with your friends, go watch them games. That's all over at Pigatcha's Pub eighty five in Kirkland. 00:11:09 Speaker 1: There's a lot of great stuff we covered with Joe. If there's one thing I want you listeners to pay attention to with Joe Doyle, listen to what he mentions about the draft. We last talked to Joe about four months ago on this podcast. We did a little light draft talk in that episode. I remember we dive in a little bit more with him. At the end of the conversation with Joe, listen to what he says about how the what he thinks the Mariners could do in their approach to this draft and how that shapes because of how the board is in this draft and where the talent is distributed in this upcoming Major League Baseball draft that's in a little less than two months. It is i'd say a different perception than what a lot of people and casual followers of the draft will see online. So I'd pay attention to what Joe has to say on that, just so there's sort of less of a surprised when you see some of these names starting to pop up as more mock drafts come out in the next couple of months. 00:12:06 Speaker 2: Let me say a couple things first, on the draft, absolutely, and when Joe throws out names again, he's not just throwing names against the wall, you guys. Joe's plugged in and he is as good about the draft as almost anybody like TJ and I pretty religiously read his stuff every year when it gets to draft season because Joe really knows what he's doing. So when he drops these names and when he drops the opinion or not even opinions, just the information he shares about the draft, listen close. I Am going to guess some of you that know a little bit about the draft and this draft going into the summer probably have some names in your head that you have drilled in there. Just keep an open mind, that's all i'd say. Like, like the popular names, the household names, like we all we all know him, we've all talked about him, and we're gonna talk about him more as the draft approaches. 00:12:54 Speaker 3: Don't worry. 00:12:55 Speaker 2: But in terms of what Joe says, like just keep the open mind, is what i'd say. The other quick thing i'd say is listen to Harry Ford. We talk about Harry Ford. That was actually going to be a bulk of our conversation, but we got into it so much with Joe where we just said, all right, we'll just let the three of us all talk it out, because it was more of the three of us talking through it than just like us asking interview questions. So he, like Harry Ford's a very very popular topic right now in the Mariners world for good reason because he's on a tear in Triple A. So listen to that conversation, listen to the draft part. It's all great. Joe's our most recurring guests at this point by far. I think he's I think this is the fifth time we've had him on in our two ish years of doing this, and I'm sure it'll be six when the draft ends. So look, there's a reason we're friends with Joe. There's a reason we have him on a lot. 00:13:42 Speaker 1: So and he holds a very special place in our heart because he was number one. 00:13:45 Speaker 2: He's the first one, first guest ever, and he's our most recurring guest by a decent margin. 00:13:50 Speaker 3: These days. And again that's for good reason. 00:13:52 Speaker 1: We won't keep you guys any longer. Let's get you to that conversation with Joe Doyle. All right, we got our friend Joe Doyle with us recurring guests, host of the Overslot podcast and an analyst for Future Stars. Joe, thanks so much for taking some time for us today. Let's throw you a loaded question to start. What's been your biggest surprise with the Mariners this year? 00:14:14 Speaker 4: Oh, it has to be the hitting. I mean, it has to be the fact that it's a top eight offense in baseball and consistently the bottom of the lineup is a bunch of guys that were here invited on league minimums or minor league deals or you know, we're just just nondescript throw in pile guys. And the fact that the Dan Wilson approach of just like put the ball in play ball in plays a hell of a drug, good things can happen. I think that's been the biggest surprise by quite a margin. 00:14:46 Speaker 1: Do you buy it for the next four months in change that that's going to continue. Do you look at it and say this is sustainable? 00:14:55 Speaker 4: That's a good question. I don't even know so I think the approach is sustainable. I don't know if the level of talent is sustainable. Like do we think Leo Rebos is going to be a three thirty three hitter when they decide to play him for the whole year? I don't know, Like is Master Bony really this like key cog in a lineup that keeps things moving? I don't know. I mean, you're seeing guys like JP Crawford have a resurgent year, like one of the best years of his career to this point. Cal Rawley is putting together massively impressive season. Julio Rodriguez is running a strikeout rate like six percent lower than his career norm. So you have to look at it from the standpoint of clearly things are different with even the best players in this organization. My question is will the league be able to adjust and figure out the back of this lineup, the bottom half of this lineup, and kind of neutralize their ability to do the Congo line thing. I don't know, but it's clearly had an effect on the Raleighs and the Julios and Thes, and you know, if this team was gonna find success in twenty twenty five, they certainly needed those guys under extended contracts to have this sort of a bounce back year, So I know that's kind of hedging. I think it's yes and no. I believe that it's sustainable at the top front half of the lineup. We'll see whether or not the back half of the lineup continues to produce at this level. 00:16:22 Speaker 2: Is there one guy of those set hitters at the bottom of the order that's been your biggest surprise if you had to pick. 00:16:27 Speaker 4: One, I don't think so, don't I don't. I mean Leo Revoss is probably the easy answer. I mean, he was running a five hundred on base through like May tenth. It was unbelievable. And that's the sort of production that you need from the bottom of the lineup to set up the top of the lineup. I know this has been talked about ad nauseum for different podcasts and blogs and everybody in between. I don't know why he's not playing, especially when it calls for a left handed second basement at second base, they choose Master. I understand if you know you want to put Master Bony in right field to get someone off their feet, But I can't figure out why Leo Revos isn't consistently on the lineup when they need a swingman. 00:17:10 Speaker 2: We gave up on it, Like, I don't get it. It was, you know, home road splits are normal enough. It's not like he's drastically worse than one place. Platoon splits are normal enough. So we said, yeah, I don't know. I don't know what the reason is because I've I've looked up and down and I don't have an answer. So I think we kind of just gave up on trying to figure out why he's just constantly riding the bench. But yeah, he's been great. 00:17:31 Speaker 4: Yeah. You know, another thing is Leo Revos has been one of the better hitters in this lineup in terms of like eating up the pitch count of the starting pitcher on the other side. Now, to his credit, Master Bony's also been really good at extending at bats. But you know, for a team that prides itself on getting the starting pitcher out of the lineup and prides itself on putting the ball in play and running on base percentages, he just seems perfect for the very very bottom of the lineup. And we'll see whether or not he's able to work himself into more games going forward. But you know, I look at it and we might talk about this, but I look at a guy like Cole Jung down in Tacoma, and if he continues on his toward ways, I don't know if there's gonna be a lot of opportunities for Revos here in the next three or four weeks if Cole gets called up. 00:18:17 Speaker 1: You're talking about the approach and how it has impacted at a number of these Mariners players. There's a couple of guys we could go to. But I'm curious because we've talked to you about this before with Cal and what his offensive future is and what more he has left in the tank. I think, at least at for at least the start of the season, Joe, we're seeing a little bit more of what Cal Rawly has to offer. What have you made how he has evolved offensively? I would say to start this season. 00:18:44 Speaker 4: The biggest thing for me is he's identifying the change up from right handers. I mean that was always kind of his biggest thing, was the change up away from right handers and the slider, the back foot slider from right handers. He's seeing those out of the hand and he's spitting on them like consistently. Cal is not going down one, two, three like he did in twenty twenty four. He's working longer at bats now. There's always going to be exceptions where he does punch out in three or four pitches, but he's seeing more pitches. And I think if you're a guy like cal Rawley who understands how you're getting pitched to, he understands what the opposition is trying to do to you. He understands scouting reports better than any other hitter in this lineup. The more pitches that you can see and the more examples of how they're trying to get you out you can see, the better you're going to be for later in the at bat and the second played appearance of the game and the third played appearance of the game. And it really points to the fact that, you know, cal Rawly has been nails at the end of games. Offensively, He's hit some big home runs, some home runs and some doubles that have put the game away in the seventh and eighth inning this season. I really like that he's seeing more pitches, he's willing to work longer at bats, and he's just he's just gaining a better understanding of what the plan is for him that night. 00:19:57 Speaker 1: What about him as a righty. 00:20:01 Speaker 4: I think it's much of the same with Cals already. I can't believe how good he's become as a right handed hitter. It's a much flatter swing. He's probably not going to be the power hitter that he is from the left side from the right side because it is, like I said, flatter, it's more gap to gap. But there's not really a lot of holes in cal rawley swing from the right side as and the left side. Like the guy hits everything. He's not a liability as a switch hitter in any way, shape or form. There were times in his career as recent as twenty twenty three I think where they would take him out of the game that they would literally platoon him and not bat him as a right handed bat because they thought that there was better opportunities with whoever their backup catcher was to see left handed pitching. So it's getting harder and harder not to play cal Rawley like one hundred and fifty five games out of the season, even if he's dhing a bunch, because I think and you guys would probably agree with this. Cal Rawly is your best offensive player, Like he is your or organizational pillar, bedrock in the lineup that is in there night in and night out, and when he's not in there feels like a gaping void. 00:21:10 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean, I think he's the best offensive player on the team at this point. 00:21:13 Speaker 3: Maybe TJ feels otherwise. 00:21:15 Speaker 1: No, I'm I'm there with you. He makes it pretty hard to dispute, right because we're not taking Julio over him right now. 00:21:21 Speaker 4: Well, and like I'm not saying he's a better player than Julio. Like Julio's path to a five F four season is so straightforward. He doesn't have to do incredible things to be a five win player. The same can't be said about cal Like cal Is is a very good defender, but he's not a good runner. Like he's not as good a runner as Julio. He doesn't play as premium a position as as as Julio does. But in terms of just like from a WRC plus an impact in the box, I think cal Rawley is probably the most impactful stick this lineup. 00:21:55 Speaker 1: Hass, Julio's current pace right now is a five win player and he hasn't. Even he's been solid offensively, I'll say, but he's not been like world beater, not August twenty three or the end of last year, or even the final five months of his rookie season, and it really hasn't been that. But I think he's still, at this rate been a five win player. I've Joe, I don't know how you feel about Julio right now. I've been totally okay with what I've watched at the beginning of this season. A lot of our comments have been said the same. But I'm sitting there and watching what he does for this team and day in and day out, and I say that's totally fine. 00:22:27 Speaker 4: Yeah, And you know, also, expectations can be a really dangerous thing. It's so hard to find a five win player, like they are so hard to fight. I would bet you Julio is coming off his I could be wrong on this. I think he's had three consecutive five win seasons. I could be wrong on that. There may be a four point something in there or three point six. 00:22:49 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it was like three point eight last year. 00:22:52 Speaker 4: Okay, but still he's got a couple of five win seasons. I think I may get fact checked on that, but that's fine. My point is like, it is so very difficult to have a five win season, and I know people want to look at Julio Rodriguez and go, he's not the superstar that everyone thought he was going to be. He's not the you know, he's not the guy that wins a game for you on his own, even though he pretty much did win that Chicago game on Monday. Five wins is the equivalent of by war making forty million dollars a year. Forty million dollars a year is what you would pay on the free agent market for five f war. 00:23:25 Speaker 1: Julio is not going to. 00:23:26 Speaker 4: Make anything close to forty million dollars for the foreseeable future. And the only way that he's going to get there is if he finishes in the top three in MVP voting I think twice in the next like six years. So if he gives you a five win season, even though that's by the way, that's all star quality, if he gives you a five win season, you should be really happy. Now, Julio is capable of a six and a half or a seven win season, but man, like a five win center fielder is just so rare. 00:23:57 Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, So to contextualize this and just to let the people no, because I just looked it up. So, Julio's war by year five point eight in twenty twenty two. This is by fanografts five point eight and twenty twenty three, three point nine and twenty twenty four, which we can round that up and call it four if we want. And then right now he's at a win and a half. So yeah, he'd be on he'd have another five win season if this keeps up. 00:24:20 Speaker 4: Is he over sixteen point five for his career? Then if you go to his career, is he because I'm just the only reason I'm saying that is because is he pacing? 00:24:31 Speaker 1: He is? 00:24:32 Speaker 4: So he's he's on average over a five win player over the first three years of his career. And what they're paying him, I mean, what's Julio making like twenty three mili and. 00:24:42 Speaker 1: This was less seventeen million dollars. 00:24:43 Speaker 4: I'm still making seventeen So yeah, I'm thrilled with Julio. I do want to see him have that breakthrough season. And we may be like, listen, here's the thing. We may be watching it and we don't even know it, like he's running a nineteen percent strikeout rate. The biggest way to destroy f war, the way that Fangrafts does things is to strike out a ton, and Julio used to strike out a ton. If he does the exact same thing he's done every single year this year, but strikes out nineteen percent of the time and he runs like a nine percent walk rate like he's doing this year, I think his numbers will probably end up closer to like six point two six point four f war at the end of the season. But he's been really, really good and he's last I looked, he was a top thirty player in the sport all things considered by f WAR, I'm perfectly satisfied with what Julio has provided so far. 00:25:34 Speaker 1: What are good stats for a player who's really good at attacking the first pitch, Because he's been good this year against the first pitch, and I think that's a big reason why strikeout rate is down. But does that number need to be higher because you are only giving yourself one pitch and at bat, say a quarter of the time thirty percent of the time. 00:25:54 Speaker 4: Well, there is an adage in baseball that the best pitch that you're going to see is the first pitch of an at bat. A lot of players JP Crawford subscribes to it. It's the first pitch of the game, it's the first pitch of an ad bat. It's a pitcher trying to get ahead. So yeah, I mean, you can go into fangrafts. You can go into Savant Baseball Reference and do splits by the first pitch of a plate appearance and see what his you know, zone contact rate is. You can see what his WRC plus is, what his slugging is, what his ISO is. There's a number of different ways that you can quantify how he is performing with the first pitch. But the way that I would answer that is, I don't know if Julio, the way that Julio swings the bat. I don't know if Julio seeing like seven pitches per played appearance is necessarily as advantageous as cal Ra. I think Julio is more of an like a reactionary hitter, whereas cal ralely is a little bit more pragmatic and he's trying to understand how he's being pitched. To listen, Like, the biggest complaint that everyone has had with Julio Rodriguez over the first three and a half years of his career is he's slow to adjust. He's slow to adjust, like pitchers are pitching him the same way for a month. He's slow to adjust. And if he is slow to adjust, then maybe he doesn't need to see more pitches. Maybe he just needs to at times take the first pitch work himself into a hitter's count. But hey, listen, like when you are facing a team that is all about throwing a first pitch strike, and you're as talented a hitter as Julio, you know, let her ride, let it fly. 00:27:20 Speaker 1: For context for everyone listening, he has an eleven hundred ops and a slugging of about seven to sixty on the first pitch. 00:27:27 Speaker 4: So does it hurt when you hit a first pitch Grand Slam on Monday? 00:27:31 Speaker 2: You can kind of feel that coming too, at least I thought. The way they loaded the bases and he comes up, and you know, the White Sox have their trash. 00:27:39 Speaker 3: Bullpen in there, you can kind of feel it coming. You know. 00:27:42 Speaker 4: The one thing that is interesting watching Julio is it's very clear he at least in most situations, is going to get a breaking ball on the first pitch of an at bat after the first at bat of the game, because teams know he's a fastball hunter. If you get him a high fastball on the zone first pitch of that, he could do real damage. But more and more you're seeing these teams try and throw a first pitch breaking ball out of the zone and when they hang it to Julio with the first pitch like right down the middle, very rarely, at least this is how it feels to a casual observer, he's not missing it. I mean, he's hit some absolute moonshots on the first pitch breaking ball this year. So yeah, we're I mean, listen, we're at that point of the season now where teams are going to adjust again to Julio the way that he's the way that he's attacking pitches. I think we're probably overdue for a three or four week stretch where Julio is getting a ton of sinkers in off the plate and we'll see if he can react to that. But I mean, I guess, going back to the question that initially started all this like five or six minutes ago, with what he's done so far, I think you have to be pretty excited. 00:28:51 Speaker 1: Where are his swing mechanics act compared to this time last year? 00:28:57 Speaker 4: Man, I spent so much time in my younger years. I know, I say that like I'm this old man, But like I used to write about swing mechanics and stuff. Dude, every three weeks I would write an article about Jared Kelnick's swing. And I'm talking about like in Arkansas and in West Virginia, and you know, when he was in the low minors. I was obsessed with Jared kelnick swing when he was playing for the West Virginia Power. I try not to pay as much attention to the swing mechanics themselves, and I just try and see our guys on time. There are things that you can point to. Julio's not sinking into his hips as much as he used to. I think that's very very clear. He holds the bat further away from his body than he used to. It's lower, it's more neutral to his shoulder than it is above his shoulder. But all of these things work differently for different hitters. Everyone just moves differently. So right now it's working for Julio. Yes, he looks different. I think he's clearly made some adjustine adjustments with Edgar and kevn insights here. But to get too prescriptive, I think he might look different two weeks from now, So who knows. 00:30:06 Speaker 2: Let me ask you this because there's plenty we want to get to with you between a little bit of prospect talk and certainly the draft, because this is about as exciting a Mariner's draft as where we have seen in a decade plus, and it may be as exciting as one as we're going to see in some times. So we want to spend some time on that and start talking about it early here to get everybody informed and educated. But before we get to that, I did want to ask you this because Emerson Hancock has had. First off, he's had a really nice run of start since he came back up from Tacoma. I even want to focus on his last two the Yankee start, which look, he had one tough inning where it got away from him. The Yankees were on him, and ultimately that was kind of the end of that one. 00:30:46 Speaker 3: You look closer at. 00:30:47 Speaker 2: That one, and he had fifteen whiffs in that outing. 00:30:51 Speaker 3: He had fifteen whiffs. 00:30:52 Speaker 2: Stuff was playing up and the first few innings of that start were really good before one bad inning kind of got him. Then you fast forward to San Diego and he's pumping ninety eight miles an hour. If you want to use ninety seven point six, fine, but I'll call it ninety eight miles an hour. My question is this as somebody who's evaluated plenty of talent. Let's say Emerson has a eight to ten start stretch where the stuff stays up like this, and it continues to play up and he continues to miss bats. Is there gonna be some sort of reevaluation process that people are gonna have to do on Emerson Hancock because forever now people have just kind of accepted the fact that what the injuries he's had, he was a low nineties guy that didn't get a lot of swing and miss. Are we approaching potential territory where we could reevaluate this? 00:31:39 Speaker 4: Yes, Like without question. The first thing, the first place my head goes when I see Emerson touch ninety seven ninety eight is and I know this sounds crummy, but is the lat gonna hold up? Because every time we hear like Emerson Hancock is brushing big numbers here, Emerson Hancock is brushing big numbers there, it's the lat it's an oblique like something something starts to bother him. So you know, we've seen elevated velocity from Emerson Hancock now over the course of the last month. And with that, you know, he's always been a low slot righty going back to Georgia, and that has worked tremendously for guys like Brian Wu. You're seeing Emerson Hancock keep a little bit of carry on his four seamer. There were times when I don't know if mechanically his body just wouldn't let him stay behind a foreseamer and get carried through the zone from that low slot, and we just saw like change up, cutter, slider, two seamer, like everything was low in the zone. Everything was like kind of generic from Emerson Hancock. He is like ninety five to ninety seven, touched in ninety seven to six at the top of the zone from that slot, Like you can miss buckets of bats if you can keep that shape, if you can keep that command, if you can keep that velocity. If this is the new Emerson Hancock, which I hope it is, because we have not seen this version of Emerson Hancock like at all. This could be a number four starter or it could even be a little bit better. I still have some questions about the secondaries, like the four seam fastball quality has taken a drastic jump. I still have questions about the breaking ball quality. Although he is getting more sweep on his breaking ball than he was in late March and April, I think you do have to reevaluate this if this velocity is for real, so it'll be interesting to see and track whether or not Hancock is able to keep this velocity and keep the shape on his four seamer. But the version of Emerson Hancock that Seattle is throwing out there right now is by far the best version of Emerson Hancock that we've seen, including what we've seen from him at any point in his minor league career. Like this is the Emerson Hancock that I was watching in twenty nineteen at Georgia. Now back then it was even like ninety three to ninety five, touch ninety seven, but you know, that's essentially what we're getting. So we may be well on our way to yet another Mariner's player development success. 00:34:04 Speaker 1: Story if I have this right. Based off of what I'm taking from that answer right there, the velocity makes a bigger impact than say the addition of a sweeper to compliment the change up the pitches breaking arm side instead. Now he has one going hard glove side on top of the fastball, But the velocity would be more important. 00:34:25 Speaker 4: The velocity would be more important, I think for any starting pitcher in Major League baseball, velocity, specifically fastball value. Everything is built around fastball value. Look at the rotation in Seattle. Luis Castillo has built an entire career on outlier release traits and fastball quality. Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Brian wu and to a lesser extent, George Kirby are all in the position that they're in because of fastball quality. You see guys like Marco Gonzalez who have to live on a thread, like threading the needle, trying to get batters out because they don't have fastball quality. It's gotta be command, command, commit. You see a guy like Logan Evans who doesn't have a ton of fastball quality, isn't missing bats, isn't striking anybody out, but he's surviving and the keyword is surviving with his breaking stuff. If you have a ninety five to ninety six mile an hour four seemer with interesting release traits, some shape, and you can command it at the top of the zone. You have a foundation to get hitters out at Everything in your arsenal can play off of that. A sweeper is nothing if it doesn't fool the batter that ninety six is coming at the top of the zone to begin the at bats. So that's going to be the key. We can talk about the improved breaking ball, we can talk about the better command for the change up, we can talk about this and that and everything in between, the improved strike throwing ability, but the fastball quality for Emerson Hancock is by far, by a mile, the most important development from his point of view. From his player, I. 00:35:51 Speaker 1: Wanted to shift gears now Joe down to the minor league system, and there are a few guys who are performing really well down on the farm for the MS that I want to get your thoughts on where they stand right now. I guess what their timeline is to the big leagues. I want to start with Harry Ford because I feel like he is among the hottest hitters in that minor league system right now, and he's the one in Triple A. Is there any way they can fit him on this roster if he hits, say he hits like he's currently hitting for a month, he's been on an absolute tear since the middle of April. Is there room do you think on this roster for him to come up at some point? 00:36:33 Speaker 4: I mean, here's my issue with Harry Ford. They haven't committed to giving him standard reps anywhere in the field besides catching, like and he's also twenty two years old. Like, I think it's very very very very clear, abundantly clear, Harry Ford is going to be the backup catcher in Seattle in twenty twenty six when Mitch Garver is no longer in the organization. I think it's obvious. So until they commit to putting him in left field, which, as you will remember last season, it didn't go great. He looked very uncomfortable in left field last year. And you just can't call Harry Ford up unless you have a spot for him in the lineup consistently, because then you know you're really thwarting his player development by you know, only playing him once or twice a week. So to answer your question, like, short of a Mitch Garver injury, short of a Cal Rawley injury, I just don't think you will see Harry Ford in Seattle, because I just don't think you will find a place for him to play. I don't think the bat is special enough to call him up to give him regular DH played appearances. 00:37:42 Speaker 2: I'll put it that way, all right, quick follow up to that, And then I did have an additional thing I wanted to ask you on Harry which is when you say you don't think we'll see him in Seattle, is that in the sense that they're probably going to trade him at some point or you just mean they won't see him this year because this year plenty of people have talked about the idea of him being in a trade package. 00:38:00 Speaker 4: Right, yeah, I mean probably this year. I do still think that it makes sense to trade Harry Ford this summer, just because, like I don't know, Like how excited do you should you be to plan on having your platoon catcher in Seattle in twenty twenty six. Like, Harry Ford is young, he's cheap, he's controllable, but he's not going to play in front of cal Rawly at any point. So and you have cal Rawley locked up for six and a half years, You have cal Ralely locked up through Harry Ford's control years, and so if that's. 00:38:34 Speaker 2: Which quickly on that after the Cal extension, is it not a little odd that they haven't started to play started to have him play anywhere else. 00:38:43 Speaker 4: I don't think so, because I don't and I don't mean this as a hit on Harry Ford. I'm trying everything that I can not to become a SoundBite this time. I mean this in the most respectful way possible. I think Harry Ford's best defensive position and most valuable position is behind the plate. I don't think he is comfortable enough in left field to play left field at T Mobile Park, which is a tall ask. So because of that, I think you just keep catching him and plan on him being the backup catcher and potentially a DH a platoon DH in Seattle in twenty twenty six. And if someone comes calling and he just keeps like tearing the cover off the ball over the next two months, someone comes calling in July at the trade deadline and you can get a piece that makes more sense for the structure of your organization, then I think you do it. But to your point, like, if Cal's going to be here for the next six years and you can get a backup catcher off the scrap heap like Blake Hunt is plenty capable of being a backup catcher, or you can get any veteran on a veteran minimum. If that's the case, your resources may be better used by moving Harry forward to a team that believes he can catch at a full time basis in Chicago, in Colorado, in wherever. 00:39:58 Speaker 1: Let me jump in here really quick before where you get your next Harry question in because people have asked I would like to get your answer on this show. Can Harry Ford play first base? 00:40:07 Speaker 2: This was this was gonna be my question, So there you go. I was actually pressing to ask you this because I'm trying to avoid again what you just said, avoid having you be a SoundBite again. 00:40:17 Speaker 3: But I still want to ask. 00:40:19 Speaker 2: Because Donovan Solano's five eight, two hundred and ten pounds right, and like the Mariners have had no issues playing him at first base. I know Harry Ford has not played an inning of first base basically in well, certainly in his professional career. 00:40:31 Speaker 3: I'm going to assume basically in his life. 00:40:34 Speaker 2: I still wonder, like if they give him a couple handfuls of games down in Tacoma at first base. Like there's no way they could work them into some role where he catches once a week to give Cal a day off his feet. He DH's maybe once or twice a week and he plays first base once a week, something like that, just as a way to, you know, give him a little versatility. And if in four weeks or so, Donovan Solano is still not hitting, like that. 00:41:00 Speaker 3: Could be the roster replacement something like that. 00:41:03 Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's worth a look. I think it's worth a shot. I in the what has it been five years that Harry Ford. By the way, you have to add harry Ford to your forty man this offseason anyways, so like he's going to be You're going to have to do something with Harry Ford this winter anyways. I have never heard once harry Ford took ground balls at third base, Harry Ford took ground balls at second base, Harry Ford took ground balls at first base. Haven't heard it once. Haven't heard it in spring training, haven't heard it in instructs, haven't heard it in the Arizona Fall League when he did that. I have not heard him take ground balls, even though when he was drafted. Some reports were saying, Oh, you could move him to third base. He's a good enough athlete, he can move him to second base. He moves laterally pretty well. Still to this day have not heard him take ground balls one time. Taking ground balls is not an easy skill to just learn on the fly. I don't think it's something that he just learns in three weeks. And the other piece of that is he's five nine, Like, you're not only going to be He's not only going to be susceptible to a hard hit ground ball. That is going to be something that he's going to be exposed to for the first time. He's also a small target. I don't think if you polled the infield JP Crawford, Ben Williamson, I don't think if you polled them, they would be like love thrown to Donovan Solano. He's such a big target, Like you know how difficult it is going from rowdy t Lez to throwing to Donovan Solano, Like that's got to be that's got to be an adjustment, right, Yeah, And I think Harry Ford would be much of the same. And the other the last piece that I would say is I would hate to see them throw away what value four does have behind the plate by giving him all of these reps at first base and eventually changing his outcome, because I think the writing would be on the walls, like if you're giving him reps at first base, he's going to play a decent amount of first base in the foreseeable future. And then you're just taking a guy at a premium position and moving him to the worst defensive value position on the field. And I'll say one like, the last thing I'll say is maybe you guys want to answer this, is Harry Ford's bat big enough and impactful enough that you want to force it to first base just to get him to the big leagues? Like, I think that's maybe a more important question. 00:43:27 Speaker 1: Yeah, so objectively in a vacuum, if we're only looking at Harry, no basing it on the in house options at first base. 00:43:36 Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, And I'm. 00:43:38 Speaker 2: Not necessarily asking them to stunt his development as a catcher. I'm just saying, like, could they add one more piece to his game where he has the ability to do it honestly of anything, I would wonder if that just ups his trade value because say the Maritters still want to go get an actual first basement at the deadline. If Harry Fords up for a few weeks and hits a little bit and shows he can still catch and he can play another position, and you know, just ups his value. 00:44:03 Speaker 3: Say it happens that. 00:44:06 Speaker 4: Let me counter that. Okay, what if he doesn't hit and he's playing first base and all of a sudden, you've taken a hitter from Tacoma that's playing catcher, that's hitting three hundred in the PCL, and you've moved him. You've given him a five week look for big league scouts at first base and he's not hitting. Like, I think that's a great way to tank his draft value. Like if I were, like, if Seattle was really wanting to get Harry Ford up and they really wanted to get him at bats man, I would put him in left field way before I would put him at first base. I would just have him tracking fly balls as much as as possible, because if you can play left field, you can play right field as like as a pinch. You also keep your athleticism by running around a little bit. So yeah, like I would rather they give him played appearances in the outfield or reps in the outfield and have that be the backup plan to get you know, one of these other guys off their feet. Maybe you don't want Tavaris in there against left handed pitching. Well, then you know, maybe you can put Randy in right field, Harry Ford and left field, and then you can catch Randy on on the off days. I wouldn't even mess with putting him at first base because it's I think it's a good way to tank his value. 00:45:20 Speaker 1: What have you mean? How Cole Young's adjusted to triple A. 00:45:23 Speaker 4: Dude, Cole Young looks different. I tweeted about that earlier this week. He his swing is different. He's coiling harder, he's keeping his front shoulder closed, he's sinking into his hips, he looks stronger like. Cole Young legitimately looks like a more adult professional baseball player at the plate than he did last year. And the exit velocities and the I mean, look at the four hundred and sixty foot home run like he he looks like a different player now. It's also been like a thirteen game sample where he's actually tearing the absolute cover off the ball. But I will say, having watched Cole Young going back to when he was a junior in high school, this is a different version of Cole Young than I've ever seen. He looks more violent, more impactful at the plate, and I'm sure the Mariner's staff is seeing the exact same thing. I hope he continues this and to everyone that says, call him up, call him up. Like we've seen guys have unbelievable We've seen toughy Guswitch have an unbelievable thirteen game stretch. Doesn't mean he's a big leaguer. So let's just see Cole Young do this through like the middle of June. Let him get comfortable and confident in the PCL in the Pacific Northwest, and then you know, he's also hitting two forty right now for the season, So like when this guy's hitting two ninety two eighty five, hitting homers, getting comfortable with this level of pitching, and then call him up. But I'm in no rush personally to get him into the lineup in Seattle right away. 00:46:52 Speaker 2: I'm glad we're on the same wavelength about that, all three of us, because I think TJ and I's words about Cole Young in the way he's heading is let's see this for a month and then then make your decision, like, don't rush it, make sure he's fully ready to go, and then call him up. 00:47:04 Speaker 4: Yeah, the stats don't matter to me too much. What my eyes tell me about Cole Jung and the way that he looks in the box is a more encouraging development. He does not look like a slap hitter anymore. He legitimately looks like like he can turn and burn on some mistake pitches at the big league level. 00:47:22 Speaker 2: HM, of this effort group, what do you think the timeline is for the main core of them to make the transition up to arkansasuse and every guy is going to be an individual case, but you know, Colt Emerson's been red hot in the last month. Las is an interesting case because there's still the strikeout rate thing, but overall the numbers have been good this year. You know, I thought Royal was close to double A at the end of last year. But you know, you're the expert on this stuff. So what do you think the timeline with some of these guys are to go to double A? 00:47:55 Speaker 4: I think Seattle likes to do things in phases. They just like to move guys up in buckets in tiers, and I think that they're going to do that here. You're gonna see the draft on July thirteenth. Those guys are gonna sign. They're going to be pushed in to h They're going to be pushed into Modesto or the Complex leagues. The guys from Modesto are going to move up to Everett. You know, you may see felnin Celestin move up to Everett at some point close to the draft. And when that happens, you're probably going to see one or multiple of the Emerson's or the Monteses move up to Arkansas if they are still hitting, if they have proven capable of making that jump. If Seattle were to draft a college outfielder in the draft that they think is capable for High A right away, they can just go right to Everett. You move him in, You move Montese up to Double A, and see how that goes. Felnan Selson, when he's ready to move up to Everett, because there's a high school shortstop that they drafted that's going to go right to Modesto, It's just like it's a congo line, right like, they just move up in order. So I don't expect any of these guys in Everett to move up to Arkansas until a right around the draft, probably late July. And I wouldn't expect to see felmin cellistin in Everett until the same time. 00:49:12 Speaker 1: Even with Johnny's restrict the restrictions Johnny Farmelo, you'd expect him out to I think. 00:49:18 Speaker 4: That one is I would say the same thing with Tye Pete, like both of those two guys are still having to adjust to hi A. Like I was stunned when Johnny Farmelo went right to Everett the amount of played appearances that he got in Modesto didn't scream he's ready for hi A and he didn't have a spring training and Typete had a lot of holes in his swing in twenty twenty four, especially against left handed pitching, and they said, hey, let's get this guy, you know the reps that he needs in Everett with his group of guys. So this is the point in player development where they start to space guys out. You may not see all of them go together, but you will see some of them move. Might not be all of them, but you will see some of them move at the time of the draft because they need space for the new guys that they've acquired. 00:50:05 Speaker 2: Okay, so likelihood is then you think Johnny Farmelo, for the most part, would stick in hi A all year, give or. 00:50:14 Speaker 4: Take, not necessarily. I mean, if he's hitting like this and he's just proving capable of handling hi A, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he went up to Arkansas and followed. I think col Timmerson is a pretty good bet to go up to Arkansas if he continues on this pace and Johnny could follow him. I think ty Pete is going to need a little bit more seasoning down in Everett. He may stay the whole season down there. But yeah, I think this is a better question to be asked like a month from now or two months from now when the draft takes place, because generally the draft is the key cause and effect event with this organization. They always do most of their moves in the middle towards the end of July, and I will throw one more guy in just because he's been so good. It wouldn't surprise me if Durangelo Saintia moves up to Arkansas a little bit earlier than the other guys. He looks like he's just bullying guys on most appearances that he does down at effort. So if you saw Saintja in Arkansas in four weeks wouldn't stun me at all. 00:51:18 Speaker 2: I'm glad you brought him up because I didn't want to forget to ask about him, which would make total sense. No, I thought the same thing about Farmelo that like, if he's gonna hit like this for a prolonged stretch and effort, it's gonna be hard to keep him down all year. I just thought your original answer made it more seem like they may slow play it with them and leave them down in hi A for an extended period. But okay, No, Yeah, Like, I'm all for the idea of him going to EVERT and I think it's absolutely or Sorry Arkansas, I think it's absolutely possible. 00:51:43 Speaker 4: I also don't think the injury has any restrictions on Johnny Farmelo because he played center field like the first or second game that they activated him. He is clearly physically ready to handle a a high impact position like center field. So I don't think they're worried at all about the knee, to be totally honest with you, and they haven't. They it doesn't seem like they've been moving Johnny in and out of center field and DH and centerfield and DH like they've been given him his reps at the eight. So yeah, if he just continues to hit, I wouldn't move these guys up. I don't think there's any rush, Like, I wouldn't move any of these guys up to Arkansas until until we're closer to the draft, with the exception of Saint Jet, because you know, you can you can fill innings at Everett without the draft. So that would be kind of what I'm looking for. Maybe maybe far Melow in July, probably, Emerson in July. Probably, I mean he's going through a little bit of a slower stretch right now and he is just twenty years old. Maybe Laz in July. Yeah, they've got a really talented team and evert like, if you haven't gone up there and watched a couple of games, I know you guys have certainly encouraged everybody to go up there. 00:52:58 Speaker 2: For those not watching on YouTube right now, tejs make a throwing motion. 00:53:01 Speaker 1: Gonna throw a little bit harder next time, just a little bit, yeah, just just a little bit. Kind of like Durangelo, U Joe, what when you say bullying, what is the most overpowering thing about him. Is it the fact he's throwing nearly one hundred miles an hour or is it that slider. 00:53:16 Speaker 4: You know, we've talked a lot about low slot righties. Gerangelo is another low slot righty with the launch height low, like below league average. It's it's it's not as low as Brian Wu, but you know it's it's it's that flat approach angle fastball that just blows up at the top of the zone. And he's been threwn like he's not thrown with this with his left arm too much. If honestly, I think one of the reasons he's still in ever it is because Seattle is working hard to like find the proper cadence like how they're gonna use him, and they're kind of using Everett as like the test tube. Right if it was just, hey, Gerangelo is gonna be a right handed pitcher. I don't know what more he needs to do in Everett to prove that he's ready to take on double A hitters. 00:54:06 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a pretty ringing endorsement. I gotta say that's pretty exciting. Speaking of the draft, and you mentioned the draft a couple of minutes ago, this is gonna be quite the draft for the Mariners, which most of you don't need me to tell you that, because they have the third overall pick, and there's there's so many ways we could go about this, and we've got plenty of time to do so with about two months before the drafts will take place, let me just start here. You put out your first mock draft of the year pretty recently, and I will say, like Joe is, like, you know, he does homework on this stuff. He's super knowledgeable on this stuff. It did jump out to me though, you win a little bit against the grain if a such thing exists an MLB mock draft for what the first few picks could look like, because in your first mock draft you had the Mariners taking Jojo Parker, who's a high school shortstop, which I feel like maybe the consensus has I'm taking somebody a little bit different. So, like I'll just start there, your first mock draft that you put out, like what goes behind it? 00:55:06 Speaker 3: What goes behind it? But behind the Mariners pick. 00:55:10 Speaker 4: So I want to stress that I'm going to have several mock drafts that are coming out as the draft as we lead up to the draft, and what's important is I prefaced this mock draft by saying, let's do just things a little bit different. I feel like the industry as a whole, at least in May, is always going with let's give this team someone close to the top of our board. Let's give this team a player that checks the boxes that this organization has usually valued. I mean, I had Ike Irish going number two to the Angels, like I did some really wonky things. And the reason I wanted to do that exercise and it's not. You know, that mock draft was not indicative of what I've heard or am hearing, or what I think is going to happen on July thirteenth. But this is an interesting The separation between player two player three in this draft and player nine or ten in this draft is pretty marginal, Like there is not a huge tier list as we've seen in other drafts. So I just wanted to do something a little bit different. I think if there was ever a draft where you could see a team do a huge underslot deal with an early pick so they could spend a ton of money with their later picks. On the strength of this draft, which is high school infielders in high school position players I think this would be the year to do it. And that applies for me too, and how I've evaluated these players, Like the separation for me between say, I've Arquette, who is currently I think number three on my board, and who like I could just start, like Liam Doyle who is number nine on my board. The separation between three and nine on my board is really really raisorin. So I just think there's gonna be opportunities for Seattle at the top of this draft to do something creative. And also the other piece of that is when has Scott Hunter or Jerry Depoto just gone for the famous name, Like maybe Ethan Holiday is there at three, maybe they're interested. Maybe Seth Hernandez is there at three, and maybe they're interested. But I also think they're pragmatic people that try and pull the most value out of drafts that they can and beings that they have a monstrous bonus pool and they can get creative and they have a comp a pick. It would not surprise me at all if they elected to go the route of, hey, let's grab like two top twenty players on our overall draft board instead of like this famous player at three and like a guy that ordinarily does fit like a college guy at thirty five. So that's a long winded way of me saying it was just me going against the grain. It's not what I think is necessarily going to happen, but it is a constructor a framework that I think could happen. 00:58:06 Speaker 1: For them to get to top twenty players, that number three pick would have to be a college player, no, because those are the players more likely to take underslot. 00:58:14 Speaker 4: I don't think so. I mean, if you take a player at three that knows and his agent knows that they don't have a landing spot until like pick eight, for example, you can offer that player. 00:58:25 Speaker 3: You know. 00:58:25 Speaker 4: The thing about picking at the top of the draft that's so unique is the slot bonus differences between like pick three and pick four is so wide. I mean, the slot value for three is over three is over nine million dollars. The slot bonus for pick five is eight million dollars. So I mean you kind of see what I'm where I'm going with this. Like if you told Jojo Parker that you would give him seven million dollars and Jojo Parker's representation knows, hey, we could take seven million at pick three, and we know we're not going to get picked until pick eight, then the small art thing to do would be to accept seven million dollars at pick three. So to answer your question, ordinarily, yes, when you're picking fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, and then the separation in slot bonuses in those picks is so much smaller when you're picking at the top. And this is the biggest thing with landing this number three pick. You have an immense amount of leverage at the top of the draft. So I do think whoever Seattle takes, even if it's seth Rnandez or ethan Holiday, they're gonna do an underslot deal. 00:59:28 Speaker 2: Okay, So let me let me ask you this then, because and you just perfectly explained why a lot of people know this, maybe some don't that why the MLB draft is so different than the NFL draft and the NBA draft. So let me just ask you this, because we could get so far into the weeds of this, but obviously we're still two months out, so I figured I'd just start with this. 00:59:48 Speaker 3: Give people three names. Three names. 00:59:51 Speaker 2: Where the Mariners are at the third pick, they're on the clock. Who could we who could fans be circling and say let's keep an eye out for these guys. 01:00:00 Speaker 4: Okay, Well, before I do that, I'm gonna do a quick shameless plug because I think this is a good opportunity. On Thursday of this week, two days from the time that we're recording this, I'm releasing my ninety minute overslot MLB Draft comprehensive preview for the Seattle Mariners. So an hour and a half. If you're really interested in the Mariners in the draft, check that out. But three names that I think would certainly be in play for Seattle. I do think Jojo Parker is in play for Seattle. I wouldn't just like throw a name there that was totally unaffiliated with the team, that was totally unattached to the team if I didn't at least think that the team was pretty interested in it. I'm going to throw another one that I think is very, very interesting that you guys probably might not have heard. Steel Hall is a shortstop out of I think, oh man, I don't have my notes in front of me. I think he's out of Mississippi. But steel Hall is the fastest player in this draft. He's an eighty runner. He's a guy that reclassified up from twenty twenty six into twenty twenty five. So he's young, he can hit, he's smaller framed, but I think he is in along the same lines as Jojo Parker. If Seattle wanted to stretch its money steal Hall with the number three pick. I think is really interesting the guy that I think people should be paying attention to and listen. The team took Jorangelos Angel last year. I just put out a tweet about this kid. I would watch out for Kate Anderson with that number three pick. He's a left handed pitcher out of LSU. He's young, it's five pitches, it's tons of strikes, it's projection. I mean he checks just about every box that Seattle used to seek when they picked guys like Gilbert and Kirby. And I think this farm system is now in a place where they need to restock the cupboard a little bit with pitching because they've got a lot of very, very expensive pitchers that are going to become free agents in the next three, four or five years. So I would watch out for Kate Anderson. I think Jojo Parker is an interesting name that checks a lot of the boxes that they have usually coveted and steel Hall would be the guy that I would just look at and say, you know, this is really really unique. It's an elite tool in a draft that can be kind of difficult to find many elite tools, and he affords you the ability to save some money and then take another expensive high schooler at pick thirty five. 01:02:22 Speaker 1: Last thing for me, Joe, I agreed with you that the Mariners do need to sort of restock on pitching. A little bit to your idea that the Mariners could try and aim for two top twenty players. If Jamie Arnold was sitting there at three, I'm going to take they could not do that if they picked him there. 01:02:39 Speaker 4: Listen, I don't know. I'm not man. This is how do I stay away from being a SoundBite Jamie Arnold is. He's not a name that is keeping the helium that he had coming into the season. I think because he's so unique and he's an outlier and he's got those Chris Sale traits. He's not having the year that a lot of people kind of expected him to do. He hasn't taken another step. His fastball quality has actually fallen off a little bit in terms of like swing and miss and Chase. So I actually I think if they did Jamie Arnold at three, I don't think Colorado's gonna take Jamie Arnold at four. Saint Louis could take him at five. So I just gave you guys the numbers. The slot value for pick three is nine million. The slot value for Saint Louis at five is eight million. If you told Jamie Arnold in his camp, we'll give you eight point two five million to be the number three pick, We'll save seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars on the pick. We know Colorado's not going to take you, so that's not a good landing spot. Take it or leave. At eight point twenty five, we save three quarters of a million dollars. You can apply that to pick number thirty five. I do think that that is in is in the cards. But I just have questions as to whether or not Jim Amy Arnold fits the philosophical like for. 01:04:05 Speaker 1: Like fit for Seattle. 01:04:07 Speaker 4: Like. They've been so prototype in terms of like a delivery and fastball quality and things like that that I almost wonder whether or not they would just prefer to take someone that's a little bit more cookie cutter in terms of arsenal. And that's why I would look at a guy like Katie Anderson or you know, maybe even like a Kison Witherspoon from Oklahoma before Jamie Arnold, but who knows. It's May twentieth. 01:04:32 Speaker 2: I have two more like quick hitters Bory and then we'll wrap this up. When you mentioned steel Hall and you mentioned the trade of the elite speed and not being able to find a ton of elite traits in this draft because Joe doesn't have to say, like, I'll say it it is. It is a draft that has not been as strong as other draft class. For example, if the Mariners were drafting in twenty twenty three, like we're having a whole different conversation right now, because that was Scheme's cruise Wyatt Langford, Max Clark, et cetera. That like that class was loaded. This class is a little different. So when you talk about Hall speed, is it Chandler Simpson level? Is that what we're getting at. 01:05:04 Speaker 4: It's in the same conversation. Yeah, and it's shortstop. Chandler Simpson doesn't play shortstop. Chandler Simpson plays a really good center field. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's not a good glove. But if you get an eighty runner at shortstop, who's that bringing to mind? 01:05:21 Speaker 1: Bobby Witt? 01:05:23 Speaker 4: Well, okay, so Bobby WIT's like way bigger, and Bobby Whitt is like, Bobby Witt is like this distinguished hitter that has, you know, going back to his high school days. I wouldn't put the Bobby Wit thing on him. I wouldn't put the trade turner thing on him. But the guys that are eighty grade runners at shortstop you tend to talk about him. You know, they've got like this this aura around their value. So the thing is Scott Hunter, Jerry Depoto, Justin Hollander. They've always gone for guys at premium positions. They've gone for athletes, They've gone for guys that are gonna stay up the middle. They've gone for left handed hitters. Steel Hall is alrighty, So that's one kind of notch against him. But I just think in a draft that you know, it's it's so hard to find huge, huge tools in the run category, in the power category, even though Holiday and Xavier Nine's have huge power, you might just take the fastest guy in the draft who has hit well all Spring is young and play shortstop and say, man, let's just take a let's take a shot on this guy and save two million bucks with the number three pick, and then that would afford you the ability, this is what I'm talking about, Like, that would afford you the ability to spend six million dollars at pick thirty five. You could do Steel Hall and Cruse school Craft in this draft, and you could still have money to play with at fifty nine. So I think when you have as much money as Seattle does, people are gonna look at this draft and go, you have so much money, just get the famous name because it's the it's the name that people always want to attach themselves with. It's the name that's on the front of Sports Illustrated and stuff. A lot of times, the more valuable way to attack a draft is not to take the guy that's really expensive at full slot at the top of the class. 01:07:14 Speaker 2: So you basically answer what my last question was going to be, and I did just want to hit on it, and then we can wrap this up, which is, yeah, if you're a more casual baseball fan, or not even baseball fan, a more casual MLB draft fan, that only knows baseline level about the draft and some of the names in each class. I'm guessing we might have some listeners that are at this point in the podcast who Well, before I say this, let me preface, like, first off, you should absolutely go check out Joe's podcast that's coming out on Thursday over at the Overslot. You should absolutely go listen to it. And it's not a shameless plug. It's a good plug. And Joe's not throwing these names out there just to throw names against the wall. 01:07:50 Speaker 3: Like if Joe's throwing this out there, like, you know, he knows what he's talking about. 01:07:54 Speaker 2: But for the fans that are sitting here toward the end of the podcast and saying, well, when I hear the draft, I know j Arnold, did TJ talk about? I know even Holiday? I know say I know Seth Hernandez, I know Ivar Kett. The Mariners have the third pick, how could they not take one of those guys? And if a general fan is saying that, you would respond to them. 01:08:12 Speaker 4: With those guys are famous on social media and Twitter because of highlight reels and because of because they've been famous names entering this season, and for good reason, they're very good players. But, as I kind of said at the beginning of this, the separation between iv Ar Rkett and let's say, Jojo Parker. I have Jojo Parker as number seven on my board right now and Ivarrkett at number three on my board. I can tell you that the level of separation between those two talents is very, very thin, and it really just depends on like what's your flavor. Do you want the six foot five in shortstop who might move to third base and has some swing and misconcerns, or do you want the six foot two inch left handed hitting shortstop with immaculate bat to ball skills and some projection. Like I put it this way, like why don't we do this from like a comparison perspective, Like Ivar Kette is like the Mike Morse on the on the high end of the scale, it's like the it's like the Troy to Lewitzki, It's like Corey Seeger. Those are all really really good players. Of course, Jojo Parker is being compared to like Chase Headley's and Kyle Segers and guys like that. So I just think you need to weigh every option, and a lot of times when you have this much money to spend in the draft, it's not who you land in the first round with the first pick, even though the number three pick is so critical to defining the overall health and value five years from now on how you did in this draft. We've seen what Seattle can do with the Johnny Farmelos at pick twenty nine, with the tie Pets at pick thirty, with the with the Ryan Sloans at pick fifty three, not to mention the Brian wo and Bryce Millers. Like these guys can identify college talent later in the draft. A lot of times the health of a draft is dictated morse so after the first round than what you land with the first pick. Now, all of that being said, I cannot ignore the fact that this is the first time that this Jerry Depoto and Scott Hunter regime have picked this high. Emerson Hancock is the only time they've ever picked in the top ten, and the history of this organization with Mike Zanino and Dustin Ackley and picking inside of the top three over the last thirty years has not been good. But I think even if they don't take even if Ethan Holliday is on the board, at pick three and they don't take him, or Seth Hernandez is on the board and they don't take him. I mean, you have ten years of evidence to suggest this scouting department knows exactly what it's doing in terms of identifying talent and developing talent. So whatever they end up doing on July thirteenth, I would stand behind it. 01:10:51 Speaker 1: Joe, this has been awesome. As always, we appreciate your insight on everything to do with this organization. You're the best. You're og podcast guest. Thank you so much for taking some time for us today. 01:11:02 Speaker 4: Hey man, this has been fun. I don't think I did anything on this podcast. It's gonna get me flamed and crashed out on the internet, which is great. I'd consider that a win. TJ Lyle, You guys are the best. To keep doing good work. 01:11:16 Speaker 2: It is always great to sit down and talk with Joe. Hopefully you guys learned something. Hopefully you guys enjoyed the conversation. 01:11:22 Speaker 3: Man. 01:11:22 Speaker 2: I am itching to get more and more into draft season because this is such a unique year for the Mariners in the draft. It's about two months out now. We've started to get into it a little bit now here I can't wait to dig into it more as time goes on. All right, that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to find all of our stuff, it's right over at our website marine layerpod dot com. You can find it all there. Big reminder to all you guys again, our next live show is this Saturday. This Saturday, you guys over at Queen Anne Beer Hall in Seattle, May twenty fourth again. This Saturday starts at twelve pm. That's our live show. We're going to do watch party as well right after at one pm for mariners astros. We would love to have you there. If you've got time, mark it on your calendar and come on out. Also, go get your merch, go sign up for our Patreon. That's all over at our website. You can like, download, subscribe to our episodes everywhere. Also at our website as well, so go check it out marine layerpod dot com and you can find us all across social media at marine Layer Pod. 01:12:25 Speaker 3: That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.