Lyle and TJ chat about their No. 2 MLB Draft Spotlight: Kade Anderson from LSU (10:01). They then welcome Aram Leighton from Just Baseball to discuss the Mariners options at No. 3, the characteristics of the draft, current Mariners prospects, & more (24:23)
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00:00 --> 00:03 [SPEAKER_02]: Welcome to episode number two, sixty-five of the Marine Lair podcast.
00:03 --> 00:07 [SPEAKER_02]: We welcome on our friend and recurring guest, Aaron Layton from Just Baseball.
00:08 --> 00:12 [SPEAKER_02]: We talk about the Mariners options at pick number three in this upcoming MLB draft.
00:12 --> 00:18 [SPEAKER_02]: We ask also ask them about the character of this draft, what are some of the defining characteristics of it and much much more.
00:19 --> 00:22 [SPEAKER_02]: We also have our number two MLB draft spotlight.
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01:07 --> 01:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's get it rolling.
01:22 --> 01:31 [SPEAKER_02]: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Lair podcast part of the just baseball podcast network recording on Monday afternoon July seventh.
01:31 --> 01:32 [SPEAKER_02]: There's one storyline.
01:33 --> 01:42 [SPEAKER_02]: We need to tie up that we didn't get in Mondays episode before we spent the rest of today's episode talking about the upcoming major league baseball draft with our friend, RM Layton.
01:42 --> 01:45 [SPEAKER_02]: But while how a Dom can zone?
01:46 --> 01:47 [SPEAKER_02]: since he's been called up.
01:47 --> 01:51 [SPEAKER_02]: Let me read you these stats of Dom canzone since he was score called back on June ninth.
01:52 --> 02:04 [SPEAKER_02]: I think we're not talking enough about how good Dom canzone has been in his return to the Mariners and how he could potentially be a different bat and a little bit more developed than he was in his first couple stances the Mariners.
02:04 --> 02:08 [SPEAKER_02]: He's got a slash line of three oh six three thirty three five ninety seven.
02:08 --> 02:09 [SPEAKER_02]: He's got six home runs.
02:09 --> 02:11 [SPEAKER_02]: He's got an OPS over nine hundred.
02:11 --> 02:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Is it that much different?
02:15 --> 02:35 [SPEAKER_01]: This looks more like the guy that we were told he could be when they traded for him when they said he could be a twenty five home run a year twenty five home run guy a year he could really tap into the power he could mash right handers that's what we're seeing right now now it's pretty crazy to see considering the guy was starting the year in the minor leagues
02:36 --> 02:43 [SPEAKER_01]: was just mashing with Tacoma, felt like he was almost stuck down in AAA, twenty seven years old, and you're looking, you say, what's the role going to be for Dom?
02:44 --> 02:46 [SPEAKER_01]: Is this just what he's going to be long term?
02:46 --> 02:49 [SPEAKER_01]: Is he just going to be a depth outfielder for the organization?
02:49 --> 02:52 [SPEAKER_01]: All of this sudden, he's got another chance here and he's run with it.
02:53 --> 02:57 [SPEAKER_01]: It's at the point now where you can't take the guy out when there's a right hand around the mound.
02:57 --> 03:01 [SPEAKER_01]: Dom can zones, OPSing almost nine hundred for the season.
03:02 --> 03:03 [SPEAKER_01]: He's crushing it.
03:03 --> 03:07 [SPEAKER_01]: Now it's a small sample, but again, in the sample we've seen so far is crushing it.
03:08 --> 03:12 [SPEAKER_02]: And he's deserved to stay and stay in this lineup.
03:12 --> 03:23 [SPEAKER_02]: And you and I have talked about a couple of times how they approach the deadline if they look at Dom Kinzone and they believe what he's doing is sustainable and they think it's going to be a valuable piece of the soft ends in August and September.
03:24 --> 03:33 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it'll come down a little bit because there are still some of the things that Dom Kinzone does, that are pretty similar to what he was struggling with before.
03:34 --> 03:38 [SPEAKER_02]: First off, still chases a lot, swings at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone.
03:39 --> 03:42 [SPEAKER_02]: It's harder to sustain success if you're doing that.
03:42 --> 03:45 [SPEAKER_02]: His walk rate right now is below four percent.
03:45 --> 03:49 [SPEAKER_02]: That's also not very sustainable if you're not going to walk.
03:50 --> 03:53 [SPEAKER_02]: But if he keeps his strikeout rate, it's at a manageable spot.
03:53 --> 03:55 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, like there will be some good stuff here.
03:56 --> 04:01 [SPEAKER_02]: What's going to happen when pictures again, readjust and throw them some more pictures out of the strike zone?
04:02 --> 04:03 [SPEAKER_02]: How much success is he going to have?
04:03 --> 04:04 [SPEAKER_02]: How much chase is he going to have?
04:05 --> 04:07 [SPEAKER_02]: That's something the Mariners are going to have to sort of evaluate.
04:07 --> 04:14 [SPEAKER_02]: But I will say it's been nice to see this from Dom two years after they traded for him and wanted to see this profile from him.
04:14 --> 04:16 [SPEAKER_02]: He's showing them at least a little bit of it.
04:17 --> 04:20 [SPEAKER_02]: And what do you know, he's got like arguably the best raw power on the team.
04:20 --> 04:22 [SPEAKER_02]: You wouldn't think so, but he does.
04:23 --> 04:28 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he can absolutely just hit a tank of a baseball.
04:29 --> 04:33 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if I put it over Julio's raw power when Julio's at his best, but it's up there.
04:33 --> 04:36 [SPEAKER_01]: When Dom can't zone gets into a baseball, it goes a long way.
04:36 --> 04:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Dom does not hit cheap shot home runs.
04:38 --> 04:42 [SPEAKER_01]: What was it when he hit the home run last weekend against the Rangers?
04:42 --> 04:51 [SPEAKER_01]: So about a week and a half ago, there was that stat they put up on the screen on TV where they said, Dom doesn't have a home run this year that's less than three hundred and ninety-four feet.
04:52 --> 04:54 [SPEAKER_01]: He just crush his baseballs.
04:54 --> 04:59 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, it's also the fact that the home run he hit in Arizona was the hardest hit Mariners home run still this year.
04:59 --> 05:03 [SPEAKER_02]: And that includes beating what Cal Rally did against the pirates on on the fourth.
05:04 --> 05:09 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Dom's is what one fifteen nine and cows was one fifteen two.
05:10 --> 05:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Crazy.
05:12 --> 05:18 [SPEAKER_01]: Is there a world the Mariners would think about trading cans on at the deadline if they feel like his value is going to be the highest that ever will be?
05:20 --> 05:21 [SPEAKER_02]: would say it's the craziest thing.
05:21 --> 05:23 [SPEAKER_02]: You would think they're getting a bat back though, right?
05:24 --> 05:26 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm sure it would be in a package for somebody.
05:26 --> 05:32 [SPEAKER_02]: You're not, you're not, you're not trading dumb and not replacing planning to replace that production.
05:33 --> 05:36 [SPEAKER_02]: Trade dominant get Luis Robert would people be happy about that.
05:39 --> 05:42 [SPEAKER_01]: Honestly, no, at this point, I'm with you.
05:42 --> 05:42 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think so.
05:42 --> 05:45 [SPEAKER_01]: If you're asking what the reaction of the fan base would be, no.
05:47 --> 05:58 [SPEAKER_02]: trading dumb can zone and lasaramontes away will the fan base reaction be well you could be getting show hey back in the fan base would say no because it involves last
06:01 --> 06:06 [SPEAKER_02]: I actually don't think it's the craziest thing ever because he still got a bunch of control left and he's relatively young.
06:07 --> 06:09 [SPEAKER_02]: You could sell a team.
06:10 --> 06:14 [SPEAKER_02]: You could sell a team like what the Mariners were sold from the Diamondbacks when they went out and traded for him.
06:14 --> 06:16 [SPEAKER_02]: And what kind of player he could be?
06:17 --> 06:17 [SPEAKER_02]: Do you ever know?
06:17 --> 06:20 [SPEAKER_02]: I do think they'll have they're not planning on trading for an outfielder.
06:20 --> 06:23 [SPEAKER_02]: There's no chance Tom can't zone gets moved.
06:24 --> 06:26 [SPEAKER_01]: No, it would only be if you think you're gonna upgrade.
06:26 --> 06:33 [SPEAKER_02]: Because there's no other outfield ops, unless you're planning to move Rayleigh back to the outfield full time and trade for St.
06:33 --> 06:34 [SPEAKER_02]: Josh Nailer.
06:34 --> 06:35 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, that might be different.
06:36 --> 06:39 [SPEAKER_02]: Rayleigh doesn't play another inning at first base the rest of the season.
06:39 --> 06:41 [SPEAKER_02]: He goes back to right field.
06:41 --> 06:43 [SPEAKER_02]: Josh Nailer plays every day at first base.
06:44 --> 06:47 [SPEAKER_02]: Donovan Sloan who comes off the bench, and that works out a little bit better.
06:48 --> 06:48 [SPEAKER_01]: Right.
06:48 --> 06:49 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, exactly.
06:50 --> 06:59 [SPEAKER_01]: So there's some options, but the point being, Cam's own hitting the way he's hitting right now is a very much plus for this team, and they've needed the spark toward the bottom of the lineup.
06:59 --> 07:00 [SPEAKER_01]: They've gotten it from them.
07:01 --> 07:06 [SPEAKER_02]: And they'd be in much more restraint of a strain if he was not because if he wasn't doing this,
07:07 --> 07:14 [SPEAKER_02]: You'd have to sit here and make a decision on which position you'd want to major upgrade at, because say Domkin's own was doing what he was doing.
07:15 --> 07:18 [SPEAKER_02]: First few times he's been up at the big league level with the Mariners.
07:19 --> 07:22 [SPEAKER_02]: And you said there and say, OK, we have a negative and right field.
07:22 --> 07:24 [SPEAKER_02]: And we still want to go trade for our first basement.
07:25 --> 07:26 [SPEAKER_02]: What do we choose here?
07:27 --> 07:28 [SPEAKER_02]: What would the decision be?
07:30 --> 07:31 [SPEAKER_01]: Whoever the best bat available is.
07:32 --> 07:32 [SPEAKER_02]: at that point.
07:33 --> 07:33 [SPEAKER_02]: It would probably be for a space.
07:34 --> 07:37 [SPEAKER_02]: So you go on there, you do that, and then you shuffle your roster otherwise.
07:37 --> 07:39 [SPEAKER_02]: But Dom canzone does make it a little easier for you.
07:39 --> 07:40 [SPEAKER_02]: A little bit more defined.
07:41 --> 07:42 [SPEAKER_02]: So that works out.
07:43 --> 07:46 [SPEAKER_02]: It's still defined that you're going to go get genome and Josh Naler.
07:46 --> 07:48 [SPEAKER_02]: You should go get genome and Josh Naler.
07:48 --> 07:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't know if they will, but they should.
07:50 --> 07:52 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, they should.
07:52 --> 07:55 [SPEAKER_02]: What if they trade Dom canzone back to the Diamondbacks?
07:56 --> 07:57 [SPEAKER_02]: for genome.
07:57 --> 07:58 [SPEAKER_02]: Sure.
07:59 --> 08:00 [SPEAKER_02]: Everybody goes home.
08:01 --> 08:01 [SPEAKER_02]: We're here me out.
08:01 --> 08:04 [SPEAKER_02]: I know the Diamondbacks bullpen stinks.
08:04 --> 08:06 [SPEAKER_02]: You trade Carlos Vargas back as well.
08:09 --> 08:12 [SPEAKER_02]: And you can get seby out of retirement and trade him as well.
08:15 --> 08:16 [SPEAKER_01]: I think the Diamondbacks will be thrilled.
08:16 --> 08:19 [SPEAKER_01]: Just thrilled.
08:20 --> 08:22 [SPEAKER_01]: You just now have to work in the Guardians to get seawall back to.
08:24 --> 08:24 [SPEAKER_01]: And they're selling.
08:25 --> 08:25 [SPEAKER_01]: They stink.
08:27 --> 08:28 [SPEAKER_02]: J-Ram, question mark?
08:30 --> 08:34 [SPEAKER_02]: Dom canzone, Lazaro Montez, and Harry Ford to the Guardians.
08:36 --> 08:36 [SPEAKER_02]: Sure?
08:38 --> 08:39 [SPEAKER_02]: What's this guy?
08:40 --> 08:42 [SPEAKER_02]: It's not like J-Rams making a whole lot of money.
08:42 --> 08:44 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, how many years into that new deal is he?
08:44 --> 08:45 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm curious.
08:45 --> 08:49 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, he only signed for, was it seven years?
08:49 --> 08:51 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's got three and a half years left.
08:51 --> 08:56 [SPEAKER_01]: So to be honest, the argument around J-Ram would be the same idea as Akunia,
08:57 --> 08:58 [SPEAKER_01]: He's just older.
08:59 --> 08:59 [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously he's older.
09:00 --> 09:04 [SPEAKER_01]: So you would be getting Jram for ages, thirty two, thirty three, thirty four, thirty five.
09:05 --> 09:08 [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, he's older, but I don't know if he's exactly slowing down either.
09:09 --> 09:14 [SPEAKER_02]: He's shown zero signs of slowing down.
09:14 --> 09:15 [SPEAKER_02]: And you wouldn't have to give up.
09:16 --> 09:19 [SPEAKER_02]: You would have to give up the same package for Jram as you would for a Kunya.
09:19 --> 09:19 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't.
09:20 --> 09:22 [SPEAKER_01]: You'd still have to give up a lot, but not as much.
09:22 --> 09:26 [SPEAKER_02]: No, because Akunya's six years or five years younger than Jay Ram.
09:26 --> 09:26 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.
09:27 --> 09:28 [SPEAKER_02]: That's interesting to talk about.
09:28 --> 09:28 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
09:28 --> 09:28 [SPEAKER_02]: Hmm.
09:29 --> 09:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Hmm.
09:29 --> 09:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
09:30 --> 09:30 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, maybe, you know what?
09:31 --> 09:35 [SPEAKER_01]: Now that I just brought that up in real time, that sounds like another podcast episode moving forward.
09:35 --> 09:36 [SPEAKER_01]: Who wants to talk about Jay Ram?
09:36 --> 09:37 [SPEAKER_01]: I do.
09:37 --> 09:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Mariners need a third basement.
09:38 --> 09:41 [SPEAKER_02]: There are some trade targets on the Guardians.
09:41 --> 09:45 [SPEAKER_02]: Their roster overall is not very impressive, but you got Jay Ram.
09:46 --> 09:47 [SPEAKER_02]: you got closet.
09:47 --> 09:55 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, there's other guys in that bullpen Kate Smith if you if you want to shell out prospects like there are some elite options there.
09:57 --> 09:59 [SPEAKER_01]: I think we may be talking about them in the coming weeks.
10:01 --> 10:04 [SPEAKER_02]: And you'll have a lot more ammo as of Sunday to talk about.
10:05 --> 10:08 [SPEAKER_02]: And guys, you could potentially trade with the subcoming MLB draft allow.
10:08 --> 10:10 [SPEAKER_02]: We've been highlighting before we get to RM here.
10:10 --> 10:13 [SPEAKER_02]: We want to do our number two MLB draft spotlight.
10:14 --> 10:22 [SPEAKER_02]: This guy might have the most helium of anyone we've talked about so far that Mariners fans look at and they say, I want to draft to this guy.
10:23 --> 10:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Our number two, MLB draft spotlight.
10:26 --> 10:31 [SPEAKER_02]: LSU left-hander, Kate Anderson, the biggest riser in this entire draft.
10:33 --> 10:36 [SPEAKER_01]: Would there be a single person upset about the Mariners making this pick?
10:37 --> 10:38 [SPEAKER_01]: I think the answer is no.
10:38 --> 10:43 [SPEAKER_01]: I think there would be a consensus celebration if the Mariners were to draft Kate Anderson at number three overall.
10:44 --> 10:50 [SPEAKER_01]: I think if the Mariners themselves seek Kate Anderson at number three overall, they are taking that name and running to the podium with it.
10:51 --> 10:55 [SPEAKER_02]: It is hard to poke any sort of hole in what Kate Anderson has to offer.
10:56 --> 10:58 [SPEAKER_02]: He's very durable this year.
10:58 --> 10:59 [SPEAKER_02]: He was a bulldog.
10:59 --> 11:01 [SPEAKER_02]: Just think about his last college star.
11:01 --> 11:09 [SPEAKER_02]: They threw a one, a hundred and thirty-pitch complete game shut out in the college world series against a really good coastal Carolina team on the biggest stage.
11:09 --> 11:16 [SPEAKER_02]: You love to see that from a guy who's only pitching in his second college season at the age of twenty he'll be twenty one on draft day.
11:16 --> 11:18 [SPEAKER_02]: My favorite thing about Kate Anderson.
11:18 --> 11:19 [SPEAKER_02]: He's got a plus fastball.
11:19 --> 11:21 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of really good traits there.
11:21 --> 11:23 [SPEAKER_02]: He throws it from this three quarters slot.
11:23 --> 11:24 [SPEAKER_02]: It's got some ride to it.
11:24 --> 11:25 [SPEAKER_02]: It's got some cut to it.
11:26 --> 11:27 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a really good pitch.
11:28 --> 11:32 [SPEAKER_02]: But if you look at the rest of his arsenal, it's hard to poke a hole at really whatever else he does.
11:33 --> 11:38 [SPEAKER_02]: I think people really like his sweeper, the best, but I'm looking at MLB pipeline.
11:38 --> 11:46 [SPEAKER_02]: They have his change up graded higher than his baby sweeper as our friends at just baseball put it on their draft profile for Kate Anderson.
11:46 --> 11:50 [SPEAKER_02]: The change up graded higher and his curve ball is also supposed to be plus as well.
11:50 --> 11:53 [SPEAKER_02]: You look at an arsenal like that with good command.
11:54 --> 12:01 [SPEAKER_02]: and it's hard to find any sort of negative in the repertoire and offerings of what Kate Anderson has to offer.
12:01 --> 12:05 [SPEAKER_02]: It is a very all-around profile of what he offers.
12:06 --> 12:15 [SPEAKER_02]: If you're going to draft him and you're going to put him in the minor leagues, that's why some people come out and say, yet the angels take him, Kate Anderson could be a big leader by September.
12:16 --> 12:20 [SPEAKER_02]: Because it's just, it's a profile where it already seems pretty polished.
12:21 --> 12:22 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, it's polished.
12:22 --> 12:25 [SPEAKER_01]: If the angels take him and do that, they're incredibly stupid per usual.
12:26 --> 12:27 [SPEAKER_01]: But yes, he is polished.
12:28 --> 12:30 [SPEAKER_01]: I think we can agree he should not be in the big leagues in September.
12:31 --> 12:33 [SPEAKER_02]: He shouldn't probably throw another pitch this year.
12:34 --> 12:37 [SPEAKER_02]: And I'll tell you why, but if you have something else you'd like to say, I'll let you get to that first.
12:38 --> 12:41 [SPEAKER_01]: I just love the fact that he's a four pitch mix guy.
12:41 --> 12:43 [SPEAKER_01]: All four pitches are already pretty solid.
12:43 --> 12:45 [SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned the good command.
12:45 --> 12:46 [SPEAKER_01]: I also
12:47 --> 12:49 [SPEAKER_01]: I also like the adversity he showed.
12:49 --> 12:55 [SPEAKER_01]: I know it's hard to quantify that, but he got lit up pretty good against West Virginia in the Super Regional.
12:56 --> 13:01 [SPEAKER_01]: And for some people that could be a red flag and for some pictures you could let that spiral, especially late in the year.
13:02 --> 13:03 [SPEAKER_01]: Kate Anderson didn't let that spiral.
13:04 --> 13:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Look, he had a great second half to his year at LSU.
13:07 --> 13:09 [SPEAKER_01]: He had one blip on the radar against West Virginia.
13:10 --> 13:11 [SPEAKER_01]: And then after that, what does he do?
13:12 --> 13:16 [SPEAKER_01]: He goes out and tosses seven innings, a one-run ball against Arkansas in Omaha.
13:17 --> 13:25 [SPEAKER_01]: Then he turns around in the college world series final and pitches the start that he's now famous for with the nine inning complete games shut out against Coastal Carolina.
13:25 --> 13:27 [SPEAKER_01]: And by the way, punched out ten in that game.
13:28 --> 13:30 [SPEAKER_01]: This is a pretty polished player.
13:31 --> 13:38 [SPEAKER_01]: top to bottom with the pitch mix with quality command with a fastball that rises by the way which you know the Mariners love.
13:38 --> 13:51 [SPEAKER_01]: They love those low slot fastball elevation like like induced vertical break type heaters and this could be another guy they added that mix and I'll tell you what if he's there at three
13:52 --> 13:53 [SPEAKER_01]: I bet you the Mariners jump on it.
13:54 --> 13:56 [SPEAKER_02]: And they loved it to work on that profile.
13:56 --> 13:58 [SPEAKER_02]: So here's the concern I have with Kate Anderson.
13:59 --> 14:08 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if this is the biggest red flag in the world, but he does have sort of a very small sample of what I guess he's shown and what he's performed.
14:08 --> 14:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Like what the results have said when he stepped on a mountain pitched at the college level.
14:13 --> 14:17 [SPEAKER_02]: Kate Anderson in April of twenty twenty two his junior year of high school.
14:17 --> 14:20 [SPEAKER_02]: I think midway through his junior year had Tommy John.
14:20 --> 14:22 [SPEAKER_02]: So he misses twenty two.
14:22 --> 14:24 [SPEAKER_02]: He misses twenty three his draft year.
14:24 --> 14:29 [SPEAKER_02]: He was going to be a pretty high pick as a high score if he didn't have Tommy John, but he ended up having Tommy John.
14:30 --> 14:31 [SPEAKER_02]: So he made it to LSU.
14:32 --> 14:41 [SPEAKER_02]: Then in twenty twenty four, he only threw thirty nine innings his freshman year with the Tigers before this upcoming season throwing a hundred and nineteen innings.
14:41 --> 14:42 [SPEAKER_02]: So that's great.
14:42 --> 14:43 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm glad he had the season.
14:43 --> 14:43 [SPEAKER_02]: He did.
14:43 --> 14:45 [SPEAKER_02]: He was one of the best pitchers in the country.
14:45 --> 14:51 [SPEAKER_02]: If not the best pitcher in the country in the best college baseball conference in America facing future pros every single weekend.
14:51 --> 14:52 [SPEAKER_02]: Fabulous.
14:52 --> 14:52 [SPEAKER_02]: Great.
14:53 --> 14:59 [SPEAKER_02]: The thing is, if you look at the essentially the three years prior, there's not a whole lot else to go off of.
14:59 --> 15:03 [SPEAKER_02]: So if you're making, you're making your evaluation of Katie Anderson on this year.
15:03 --> 15:03 [SPEAKER_02]: Great.
15:04 --> 15:07 [SPEAKER_02]: But understand, there is year to year variants and pitching.
15:07 --> 15:16 [SPEAKER_02]: And we haven't just seen a whole lot of it from Cade as he's grown up and come along as a prospect.
15:16 --> 15:16 [SPEAKER_02]: Think about it.
15:16 --> 15:23 [SPEAKER_02]: We have data from him as a twenty year old and then early I think sixteen year old and that's about it.
15:24 --> 15:32 [SPEAKER_01]: Can you think of anybody else that had one really big year down in Baton Rouge and propelled themselves into a number one pick or a top three pick?
15:33 --> 15:38 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, are you talking about the guy who won the John O'Rood Award the season before and Mr. Paul schemes?
15:38 --> 15:44 [SPEAKER_01]: I am, but nobody was even talking about him as a top five pick when he transferred to LSU.
15:44 --> 15:48 [SPEAKER_02]: But at least Paul schemes had thrown and pitched a decent amount.
15:48 --> 15:51 [SPEAKER_02]: Kate Anderson essentially didn't pitch for two years.
15:52 --> 15:53 [SPEAKER_02]: Not as much, not on a stage.
15:53 --> 15:58 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not that uncommon for a pitcher to have one big year and propel their draft stock.
15:58 --> 15:59 [SPEAKER_01]: That's what happened to Gerangelo last year.
16:00 --> 16:02 [SPEAKER_01]: Gerangelo's first year at Mississippi State.
16:02 --> 16:05 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm pretty sure his ERA started with a five and then he was great in twenty four.
16:05 --> 16:06 [SPEAKER_01]: The Mariners loved them.
16:06 --> 16:08 [SPEAKER_01]: They took them and he's been awesome.
16:09 --> 16:13 [SPEAKER_01]: And Liam, Liam Doyle's kind of a similar deal where he only had one big year at Tennessee.
16:13 --> 16:16 [SPEAKER_01]: He only had one big college year, but you know now he's gonna get drafted high.
16:17 --> 16:18 [SPEAKER_02]: And then it's a fair point.
16:18 --> 16:19 [SPEAKER_02]: Here's another guy I think of.
16:20 --> 16:24 [SPEAKER_02]: This isn't a perfect comparison because he played three years in college and not two.
16:24 --> 16:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Ace Alacie.
16:27 --> 16:28 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's a decent one.
16:29 --> 16:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, sorry.
16:30 --> 16:31 [SPEAKER_01]: Let me, let me rephrase.
16:31 --> 16:35 [SPEAKER_01]: Durangelo's ERA in, twenty twenty three in Mississippi State was eight ten.
16:36 --> 16:37 [SPEAKER_02]: Hmm, so it's not good.
16:37 --> 16:41 [SPEAKER_02]: It's not the, again, look, this doesn't mean Kate Anderson's gonna suck.
16:41 --> 16:46 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm just saying there's a smaller sample to evaluate off of than some other pictures.
16:46 --> 16:48 [SPEAKER_02]: And I mean, that's fine.
16:48 --> 16:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Sometimes guys as freshmen don't pitch as much as they do as sophomores and juniors, which is totally normal.
16:54 --> 17:01 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm just saying in the ramp up for Kate Anderson, you didn't get quite to see as much as maybe you get to see with some other guys.
17:01 --> 17:08 [SPEAKER_02]: So Aceilacy's the guy I bring up here because they're both college SEC lefties drafted probably in the top four.
17:09 --> 17:14 [SPEAKER_02]: Aceilacy as a freshman at Texas A&M through thirty nine innings.
17:14 --> 17:14 [SPEAKER_02]: He was really good.
17:15 --> 17:19 [SPEAKER_02]: In twenty nineteen is a sophomore through eighty eight innings as a starter.
17:19 --> 17:20 [SPEAKER_02]: It was really good.
17:20 --> 17:28 [SPEAKER_02]: And then his junior year at Texas A&M at a point seven five year and twenty four innings before going number four overall to the royals.
17:28 --> 17:32 [SPEAKER_02]: And Acealacy is not made it very far at all in the minor leagues.
17:32 --> 17:38 [SPEAKER_02]: To say like we have a we drafted Acealacy number four based off of twenty four innings.
17:39 --> 17:47 [SPEAKER_02]: He threw his junior year not totally off of but those twenty four innings were a big part of him going number four overall in his is helium of his draft stock.
17:48 --> 17:53 [SPEAKER_02]: Kate Anderson's got more than that but it is just that year we're going off of.
17:53 --> 17:58 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, you're seeing exactly why this draft class has no slam dunks.
17:59 --> 18:03 [SPEAKER_01]: Even at number one, because you're even pointing out faults here with Kate Anderson.
18:04 --> 18:09 [SPEAKER_01]: This is why it is not clear who's going to be the first pick off the board, the first two, three picks off the board.
18:10 --> 18:11 [SPEAKER_01]: It could go in number of ways.
18:11 --> 18:14 [SPEAKER_01]: We don't know how this is going to shake out on Sunday night.
18:15 --> 18:17 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, we previewed Liam Doyle at ten or eleven on our list.
18:18 --> 18:22 [SPEAKER_01]: There's a world the Nationals like Liam Doyle so much that he's their favorite guy in the draft and they took him at one.
18:23 --> 18:25 [SPEAKER_01]: There's a world Eli Willets could go one.
18:25 --> 18:27 [SPEAKER_01]: There's a world a lot of guys could go number one.
18:27 --> 18:28 [SPEAKER_01]: Kate Anderson obviously is one of them.
18:29 --> 18:39 [SPEAKER_01]: But it is so spread out and there is no consensus in this draft class that makes it all that much more exciting for this weekend is we don't know how this is all going to play out.
18:39 --> 18:43 [SPEAKER_01]: But if the Mariners C. Kate Anderson at number three, I bet you they're jumping.
18:44 --> 18:54 [SPEAKER_02]: for the skins comparison you throw out by the way in case you're curious, twenty six innings his freshman year, eighty five and two thirds his sophomore year, then when he went to LSU through hundred twenty two.
18:54 --> 18:59 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so more, more sample, but it was not projected to be a top five pick when he transferred.
19:00 --> 19:03 [SPEAKER_02]: He, yeah, I mean, he was going to go high, but right, he's not going to go number one.
19:04 --> 19:04 [SPEAKER_02]: That's true.
19:04 --> 19:06 [SPEAKER_02]: That part's absolutely true.
19:07 --> 19:14 [SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see, and according to Jay Johnson, Kate Anderson's head coach, he says this is the best picture in the country, and this is the easy number one pick in the MLB draft.
19:15 --> 19:16 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, the nationals take them up on that.
19:17 --> 19:17 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
19:18 --> 19:20 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, an interim general manager feel differently.
19:20 --> 19:21 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll see.
19:21 --> 19:22 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, how weird is that?
19:23 --> 19:24 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
19:24 --> 19:25 [SPEAKER_01]: It is very weird.
19:25 --> 19:30 [SPEAKER_02]: Do you think they keep the, do you think the nationals keep their draft board?
19:31 --> 19:37 [SPEAKER_01]: Probably because I'm sure the assistant GM was working on this very very closely with Mike Rizzo even before Rizzo was let go.
19:37 --> 19:38 [SPEAKER_01]: So I would assume.
19:40 --> 19:43 [SPEAKER_01]: I will say this for Mariners fans.
19:44 --> 19:46 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how much you want to put stock into this.
19:47 --> 19:48 [SPEAKER_01]: I will just throw it out there.
19:48 --> 19:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Kate Anderson is a Scott Boris guy.
19:51 --> 19:53 [SPEAKER_01]: So take that for what you will.
19:55 --> 19:57 [SPEAKER_01]: And look, TJ and I might see this a little bit differently.
19:57 --> 20:03 [SPEAKER_01]: I will say we know what Boris' relationship happens to be with the Mariners and it's not a positive one.
20:04 --> 20:08 [SPEAKER_01]: There are not a lot of high profile Scott Boris clients in the minor leagues for the Mariners right now.
20:08 --> 20:09 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if that's a coincidence.
20:09 --> 20:12 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if that was intentional, but it is something to note.
20:13 --> 20:17 [SPEAKER_02]: Who are the current high profile Scott Boris guys in the minor leagues if you know off the top of your head?
20:19 --> 20:20 [SPEAKER_02]: For the Mariners?
20:21 --> 20:22 [SPEAKER_02]: Not no, just in general.
20:25 --> 20:41 [SPEAKER_01]: off the top of my head, I might have to go look, and it's not always as public when they're in the minors, but Joe Doyle, our friend, that tweeted on Sunday that both Kate Anderson and the guy we will talk about for our final draft profile for Friday show, our Scott Boris guys.
20:41 --> 20:43 [SPEAKER_01]: The guy we're going to get to at the end.
20:44 --> 20:44 [SPEAKER_01]: There's no shock.
20:44 --> 20:49 [SPEAKER_01]: He's a Scott Boris guy, because well, he may have some family members that were also Scott Boris people.
20:49 --> 20:51 [SPEAKER_01]: So I would say that
20:52 --> 21:04 [SPEAKER_01]: Look, if you want some off the top of my head, Ellie De La Cruz with Scott Boris guy all the way back in the minors, he was wearing Boris stuff back when I saw him in Dayton when he was in high A, Spencer Torkelson was a Boris guy when he was drafted, and he got his way through the minor leagues.
21:05 --> 21:09 [SPEAKER_01]: There were a lot of these high profile guys that become Scott Boris guys, so they're out there.
21:10 --> 21:26 [SPEAKER_02]: I'd be curious to ask how much of it is based off of of the Boris relationship with the Mariners and how much of it is just it just so happens the Mariners guys not a Boris guy like Torklson for example the Mariners had no shot at drafting Spencer Torklson right so how would that have worked?
21:27 --> 21:27 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.
21:27 --> 21:28 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
21:29 --> 21:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, I don't know.
21:29 --> 21:32 [SPEAKER_02]: So that's why this draft I think will be will be very interesting.
21:32 --> 21:45 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it is different from my perspective in terms of an agent dealing with an organization in the draft where again, if Boris still sets a number for his guys in the draft of what they'll sign at and the mayor is offered that amount.
21:46 --> 21:47 [SPEAKER_02]: Is he going to tell him no?
21:49 --> 21:49 [SPEAKER_02]: Probably not.
21:50 --> 21:51 [SPEAKER_02]: Probably not.
21:51 --> 21:55 [SPEAKER_02]: If it comes down to an extension eight years after the draft, that's a little different.
21:56 --> 21:56 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.
21:56 --> 21:57 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.
21:58 --> 21:58 [SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see.
21:59 --> 22:00 [SPEAKER_01]: It'll be a bit of something to think about.
22:00 --> 22:01 [SPEAKER_01]: It'll be interesting.
22:01 --> 22:07 [SPEAKER_01]: I think that Rinkle has an interesting effect, and we'll see if that plays any factor or not.
22:07 --> 22:09 [SPEAKER_01]: We don't know, but something to note.
22:10 --> 22:23 [SPEAKER_02]: Now, it does help the Mariners have such a big bonus pool in this because they have the thirty-fifth pick as well that if Boris tries to strongarm them a little bit, they do have the money if they want the player that bad, they have the money to make it happen.
22:24 --> 22:24 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.
22:25 --> 22:34 [SPEAKER_02]: And I'm mostly talking about our last guy on this list because I feel like he has the most leverage for for money in this draft.
22:35 --> 22:35 [SPEAKER_02]: Mr. Ethan Holiday.
22:36 --> 22:36 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
22:36 --> 22:37 [SPEAKER_01]: So we will shock her.
22:37 --> 22:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Spoiler.
22:38 --> 22:39 [SPEAKER_01]: There's one guy we haven't gotten to.
22:39 --> 22:40 [SPEAKER_01]: You haven't heard his name yet.
22:40 --> 22:42 [SPEAKER_01]: He's probably the most famous guy in this draft.
22:42 --> 22:44 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll get to him on Friday.
22:44 --> 22:45 [SPEAKER_01]: But we'll see.
22:45 --> 22:47 [SPEAKER_01]: And honestly, we'll see with Kate Anderson too.
22:47 --> 22:49 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know exactly how that's going to play out.
22:50 --> 22:51 [SPEAKER_01]: If the Mariners want him that badly though, you're right.
22:51 --> 22:55 [SPEAKER_01]: They could just sign him for the money that they, that his camp asks for.
22:55 --> 22:56 [SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see.
22:57 --> 22:58 [SPEAKER_01]: That's number two.
22:58 --> 23:00 [SPEAKER_01]: And like I said, we're getting real close.
23:00 --> 23:01 [SPEAKER_01]: I can't wait for Sunday.
23:01 --> 23:02 [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's going to be a blast.
23:02 --> 23:03 [SPEAKER_01]: So it's going to be fun.
23:03 --> 23:04 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm looking forward to it.
23:04 --> 23:06 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, quick word before we get to arm.
23:06 --> 23:10 [SPEAKER_01]: We're going to talk to you about, you guys know our friends over at Pagotchus Pubade E-five.
23:10 --> 23:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Awesome spot to hang out.
23:11 --> 23:12 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you want to watch the draft this weekend.
23:12 --> 23:13 [SPEAKER_01]: You can head over there.
23:14 --> 23:15 [SPEAKER_01]: It's twenty TVs in that place.
23:15 --> 23:16 [SPEAKER_01]: You want to watch the mariners.
23:16 --> 23:18 [SPEAKER_01]: You want to watch a bunch of sporting events.
23:18 --> 23:19 [SPEAKER_01]: You want to watch the draft.
23:19 --> 23:20 [SPEAKER_01]: It's all there for you.
23:20 --> 23:21 [SPEAKER_01]: There's pool, darts, there's great food.
23:22 --> 23:27 [SPEAKER_01]: And you guys, if you go during happy hour, there's drinks that are three and four dollars all the way from two to six p.m.
23:27 --> 23:28 [SPEAKER_01]: on Monday through Friday.
23:28 --> 23:32 [SPEAKER_01]: A long happy hours, great specials, really good deals.
23:32 --> 23:33 [SPEAKER_01]: And there's a bunch of things to do.
23:34 --> 23:38 [SPEAKER_01]: So if you want to plan a time with your friends, head over there, Pagaches, Povey, five in Kirkland.
23:39 --> 23:54 [SPEAKER_02]: So you just heard us talk about Kate Anderson, arm, latent of just baseball, our friend, friend of the podcast, recurring guests also has some to say on Kate Anderson, but we, you know, pretty much go rapid fire around the draft with Orom to get his perspective on
23:54 --> 23:57 [SPEAKER_02]: What are some of the defining traits of these players?
23:57 --> 24:02 [SPEAKER_02]: What the benefit would be of the Mariners taking a high school shortstop versus say Ivar Kett?
24:02 --> 24:05 [SPEAKER_02]: What the gap is between all the college bats?
24:05 --> 24:07 [SPEAKER_02]: What the gap is between all the college arms?
24:08 --> 24:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Arms pretty plugged in.
24:09 --> 24:16 [SPEAKER_02]: He knows what he's talking about and he I think will give you guys a really good preview of what to expect when the draft comes up on Sunday.
24:17 --> 24:18 [SPEAKER_01]: Every big name we hit on with arm.
24:19 --> 24:22 [SPEAKER_01]: Every guy that the Mariners might be tied to at the top of that draft.
24:23 --> 24:24 [SPEAKER_01]: we talk about with arm.
24:24 --> 24:30 [SPEAKER_01]: And arm does it as good as anybody in the business man, which is pretty awesome considering he's our age.
24:31 --> 24:39 [SPEAKER_01]: He's not that far out of college like we are, so he hasn't been doing it forever, but in such short time, he's worked his tail off at this, his analysis is great, and you guys are gonna learn a lot.
24:40 --> 24:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Like you've heard TJ and I talk about a bunch of these guys, but arms really gonna go in depth and give everybody even more perspective, and it'll hit on some mariners prospects in this too, that people should be on the lookout for in the second half.
24:51 --> 24:52 [SPEAKER_02]: We won't keep you guys any longer.
24:52 --> 24:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's give you to the interview with Arm Layton.
24:54 --> 24:57 [SPEAKER_01]: All right.
24:58 --> 24:59 [SPEAKER_01]: We've got our friend Arm Layton on with us.
24:59 --> 25:01 [SPEAKER_01]: He's the co-founder of Just Baseball.
25:01 --> 25:05 [SPEAKER_01]: He's also the co-host of The Just Baseball Show, The Call of Podcast.
25:05 --> 25:07 [SPEAKER_01]: He's getting all set and ready for the MLB draft.
25:08 --> 25:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Arm, first off, it's been way too long since we've actually had you on the podcast.
25:11 --> 25:12 [SPEAKER_01]: So thanks so much for hopping on.
25:13 --> 25:15 [SPEAKER_01]: And also, is this like your Christmas?
25:15 --> 25:16 [SPEAKER_01]: Were this close to draft time?
25:17 --> 25:18 [SPEAKER_00]: It's exciting.
25:18 --> 25:19 [SPEAKER_00]: It's up there, man.
25:19 --> 25:20 [SPEAKER_00]: It definitely is.
25:20 --> 25:20 [SPEAKER_00]: I think
25:21 --> 25:28 [SPEAKER_00]: There's something about the process of just getting to know all of these players that you hit a point where, okay, there's no more games being played for the most part.
25:28 --> 25:29 [SPEAKER_00]: The combine's done.
25:30 --> 25:33 [SPEAKER_00]: You feel like you've no most of what you need to know on the top guys.
25:33 --> 25:36 [SPEAKER_00]: And then I just, it transfers to, well, what do the teams think?
25:37 --> 25:38 [SPEAKER_00]: Where are these guys actually going to get drafted?
25:38 --> 25:41 [SPEAKER_00]: Because now I know at least I have my opinions, and then I get super eager.
25:41 --> 25:44 [SPEAKER_00]: So, well, first of all, so thank you so much for having me on again.
25:44 --> 25:46 [SPEAKER_00]: It's, uh, I was waiting for the invite.
25:46 --> 25:47 [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm fucked up to be back on.
25:47 --> 25:48 [SPEAKER_00]: It's always an honor.
25:48 --> 25:51 [SPEAKER_00]: And, uh, yeah, this is, uh, this is a really fun time.
25:51 --> 25:58 [SPEAKER_00]: And I imagine from Mariners fans, it's got to be super fun, uh, with a top three pick here to have in your back pocket.
25:58 --> 26:00 [SPEAKER_02]: And everyone's really excited for it.
26:00 --> 26:02 [SPEAKER_02]: They haven't picked this high and quite a while.
26:02 --> 26:04 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Mike Sinino was the last time they picked this high.
26:05 --> 26:06 [SPEAKER_02]: So throw back name.
26:06 --> 26:08 [SPEAKER_02]: There are a me out Florida guy.
26:08 --> 26:10 [SPEAKER_02]: Here's a good general question to start with this draft.
26:11 --> 26:12 [SPEAKER_02]: What is the theme of this draft?
26:13 --> 26:29 [SPEAKER_00]: I would say it's funny because I'm going to say I think it's a little bit more prep heavy and then there's a real scenario where three college arms go off the board and then top three but I would say it's high school bats and high school short stops because I think it's also relative to last year as well.
26:29 --> 26:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you could maybe compare it to some other drafts and maybe it wouldn't feel as high school heavy but it's kind of like when you
26:35 --> 26:39 [SPEAKER_00]: get out of the hot tub and then you jump into the pool and like the pool wasn't cold but then it feels cold.
26:39 --> 27:05 [SPEAKER_00]: I feel like that's almost what we're here with this draft because like last year you had the two prep short stops in Connor Griffin and Bryce Rainer but it was so college heavy that now this year there's so many different high school bats that could go in the top ten that it feels even more extreme I think with compared to what we had last year so I would say that's the big theme here is is just a lot more high school bats that could go in any spot and then the other I'd say is
27:05 --> 27:35 [SPEAKER_00]: lack of clarity and in a fun way where it's just not that we knew for sure how things were going to run off last year but I think this year you could probably make a case for any assortment of outcomes from number one to number ten and no one would be able to say whether you're right or wrong and that's that that's the craziest part and of course draft is unpredictable by nature but you've got a list of like ten different names that could be considered in the top three maybe more than that which we don't usually have it that wide
27:36 --> 27:43 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so with that, and there being so much lack of clarity at the top of the draft, how many guys have truths star potential in this draft?
27:43 --> 27:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Because I think it's fair to say this draft isn't like, twenty three, for example, when you have schemes, crews, lying for et cetera, just all roll off the board.
27:50 --> 27:55 [SPEAKER_01]: Is there a bunch of true star potential in this draft class or is that lacking a little bit in your opinion?
27:55 --> 27:59 [SPEAKER_00]: It's funny because like amateur scouting is so nuts.
27:59 --> 28:00 [SPEAKER_00]: I want to talk about this like where
28:01 --> 28:09 [SPEAKER_00]: It can change so quickly, especially with the high school guys, where, I mean, I don't think anybody was looking at Cam Smith as a college guy, even for example.
28:09 --> 28:14 [SPEAKER_00]: Your draft eligible sophomore, as a potential star, was a guy that we loved out of the draft.
28:14 --> 28:20 [SPEAKER_00]: I know Adam is a top ten draft prospect force, but I liked him a lot because I just thought the hit tool was underrated.
28:20 --> 28:22 [SPEAKER_00]: The defense was underrated and he just can be a really well-rounded player.
28:23 --> 28:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Now he looks like he could have that star potential if it all comes together with what he's already doing out there.
28:27 --> 28:29 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's a guy that's slipped out of the top ten.
28:30 --> 28:32 [SPEAKER_00]: So you never necessarily know even Connor Griffin.
28:32 --> 28:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I think people saw the star potential, but was he going to hit enough?
28:35 --> 28:36 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know clearly now.
28:36 --> 28:38 [SPEAKER_00]: He looks like he could be the number one prospect in baseball.
28:39 --> 28:45 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if there's anybody that tools he though when you look at the Connor Griffin archetype in the Rainer, even archetype with the power there.
28:46 --> 28:51 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you could probably make the case for a couple high school guys, but like a Jojo Parker, for example.
28:52 --> 28:56 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's ever going to be a star, but he is such a good chance to be a good big leader because he hits.
28:57 --> 28:58 [SPEAKER_00]: But I would get like an eighth in holiday.
28:58 --> 29:03 [SPEAKER_00]: There's some hit tool questions, but that guy can be a star with the power, especially if he goes to Colorado.
29:04 --> 29:12 [SPEAKER_00]: And then it depends on how you define a star pitching wise, but I think any of the three lefties you could make the case of them being able to put it all together and achieve that ceiling.
29:13 --> 29:14 [SPEAKER_00]: But I would argue that
29:14 --> 29:20 [SPEAKER_00]: There may be, isn't quite as high of a ceiling with a lot of these guys here, but there's a lot to like.
29:20 --> 29:30 [SPEAKER_00]: And then, of course, Seth Hernandez, you're going to have a ton of concern around a high school variety, any, any time you're taking them in the top ten, but that guy could truly, truly be a star.
29:30 --> 29:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you could argue you guys as high of a ceiling is anybody in the draft.
29:33 --> 29:45 [SPEAKER_00]: But I would say that depending on your patients on the high school short stops, because anything can happen there, I would say it's kind of hard to see that sky high potential that maybe some of the guys have had in the last few drafts.
29:46 --> 29:51 [SPEAKER_02]: The guy I think a lot of mariner fans have looked at and a lot of prospect analysts and draft analysts have looked at.
29:52 --> 29:58 [SPEAKER_02]: To have the most helium in the trip this draft has been Kate Anderson and I think that's made people want him more at number three.
29:59 --> 30:02 [SPEAKER_02]: But the more we go on in the more mock drafts that come out.
30:02 --> 30:05 [SPEAKER_02]: You see that he's probably not going to be available at number three.
30:05 --> 30:07 [SPEAKER_02]: Still could happen, but it seems more unlikely.
30:07 --> 30:10 [SPEAKER_02]: Why has he shot up so much this year to the point where.
30:11 --> 30:18 [SPEAKER_02]: as many people thought earlier in the season he'll be available at three if you want him if you would get picked in the top three but now it doesn't even seem like it.
30:18 --> 30:21 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean the live look I got in in Omaha was was pretty nuts.
30:21 --> 30:40 [SPEAKER_00]: I just positioned myself behind home plate and just watched this guy go to work and I'm imagining if you know the scouts that were all out there seeing what he was able to do it wasn't just the fact that he was dominating it was how he was dominating where like you're watching a guy just just pitch with polish and of course the fastball
30:41 --> 30:56 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, it has good characteristics, so at ninety three, ninety four he was touching some five and sixes, but it was the assortment of secondary is off of that that really impressed me and he would go like from edge of the rubber on the inside for like a left hand hitter and then to the other side of the rubber.
30:56 --> 31:13 [SPEAKER_00]: for a right hand and hitter and then just execute an execute and execute as fast ball slide or curve ball change up and I think when you look at a left hand or like that that can throw four quality pitches for a strike has good fast ball characteristics and it was maintaining his velocity deep into starts it was just one of those scenarios there where
31:14 --> 31:19 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you can just envision that playing at the Big League level so soon.
31:19 --> 31:26 [SPEAKER_00]: And again, maybe there's a world where you have Liam Doyle of put it all together and he has a higher ceiling who knows.
31:26 --> 31:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that's the crazy part about the draft, especially with pictures, a couple little tweaks.
31:32 --> 31:36 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Brian Wu, for example, you see the secondaries that he has found and
31:36 --> 32:04 [SPEAKER_00]: all of a sudden he looks like he could be one of the better pictures in the game when he's going right and it was just fastball for a while and it was a really unique fastball but it was very fastball heavy I think with Anderson it's like you don't have to do much here you barely have to touch him like you could just drop him in a pro ball and say go and I think that part of it was a big reason why he kind of flew up the ranks and I think another thing that was really encouraging to to evaluators was he had that rough start against West Virginia it gives up six earned
32:04 --> 32:12 [SPEAKER_00]: And just flips that back around, next start out, dominate against Arkansas, and then does what we saw against Coastal Carolina on a hundred thirty pitches.
32:12 --> 32:22 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think seeing that moxie and that ability to just bounce back, you did that earlier in the year as well against Alabama, I gave up four homers and right back with seven innings, seven and a third of eleven k's.
32:22 --> 32:27 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think having that ability to just turn the page and bounce back, he just, he screams big leager.
32:27 --> 32:30 [SPEAKER_00]: Even if it's not an ace, he's going to be a really good big legarm for a long time.
32:32 --> 32:53 [SPEAKER_00]: of those three lefties is his upside the highest I think is for the highest personally I think the upside is is also probably right there I think you could argue with Liam Doyle's just ridiculous fastball characteristics and sheer velocity that if if you can develop his secondaries a little bit further
32:54 --> 32:58 [SPEAKER_00]: He could have the highest ceiling just in terms of how electrifying he can be.
32:58 --> 33:04 [SPEAKER_00]: But I'm of the belief that if you can execute four pitches, even if you're a little less stuffy, he's going to execute.
33:04 --> 33:09 [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to have a seventy percent strike rate across most of his secondaries, or at least that's what he had this past year.
33:09 --> 33:12 [SPEAKER_00]: That may end up still pushing the ceiling, quote unquote, higher.
33:12 --> 33:14 [SPEAKER_00]: It's like the George Kirby conversation, right?
33:14 --> 33:17 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think Doyle in terms of raw stuff, it all works out.
33:18 --> 33:19 [SPEAKER_00]: Could have the highest ceiling.
33:19 --> 33:23 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think when you blend ceiling and floor, I think K and Anderson still comfortably the best.
33:24 --> 33:32 [SPEAKER_01]: I think with teachers really trying to find out here from you is of these three lefties, which one is the angel is going to take and put in the baked leagues by September.
33:32 --> 33:36 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, as Kate get a fall to three because they take one of the other lefties and then just place them right in the baked leagues.
33:37 --> 33:43 [SPEAKER_00]: I think they would dream of taking, the angels would dream of taking Kate Anderson because they could, they might just skip the minor league period.
33:44 --> 33:53 [SPEAKER_00]: But then when I look at what where the angels may pivot from there, you know, I think there's, there's a lot to like about Jamie Arnold and the funkiness and everything that he has going on.
33:53 --> 34:04 [SPEAKER_00]: And I know some people have made the case that, oh, that could be a guy that you also fast track because of what he has with the slider and just the deception and the strike throwing over all that he's had.
34:04 --> 34:06 [SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that that's a player that
34:07 --> 34:22 [SPEAKER_00]: I'd actually want to work a little bit slower with because I love the fit potentially in Seattle as a guy that funky release, nasty, nasty slider, things that you could probably tighten up in a just really smart pitching mind, really enjoyed talking to him actually on the call up.
34:22 --> 34:27 [SPEAKER_00]: And I guess that I think would be receptive to tweaks and adjustments, whereas Liam Doyle
34:28 --> 34:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Even if he's sixty percent fastball usage, the angels could just throw him in the bullpen tomorrow and say, let's go.
34:33 --> 34:36 [SPEAKER_00]: Or they could just throw him in the rotation and say, I don't care what you throw.
34:36 --> 34:40 [SPEAKER_00]: If you're getting out, five innings, we're cool with it.
34:40 --> 34:45 [SPEAKER_00]: So I could see them being a little bit more comfortable fast tracking Liam Doyle just because the stuff's going to play right away.
34:45 --> 34:47 [SPEAKER_00]: And if it does go one to that way,
34:48 --> 35:00 [SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't be upset if I'm the Mariners with the opportunity to develop a Jamie Arnold and get him to a point where he could end up having the most unique arsenal with the most unique release characteristics and ends up playing really well from the last time.
35:01 --> 35:04 [SPEAKER_02]: Jamie was supposed to be the number one pick preseason.
35:04 --> 35:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Now it's likely he's not the number one pick anymore.
35:08 --> 35:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Was that more reflective of the players around him?
35:11 --> 35:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Did people learn something new about Jamie this year?
35:13 --> 35:13 [SPEAKER_02]: What was it?
35:14 --> 35:17 [SPEAKER_00]: I think he was a consistency of the secondary or not even secondary.
35:17 --> 35:19 [SPEAKER_00]: I would say the consistency of everything besides the slider.
35:20 --> 35:22 [SPEAKER_00]: The slider is almost like the primary for him.
35:22 --> 35:36 [SPEAKER_00]: So when you're playing MLB the show and you have a picture come in and you click A or whatever the button maybe for your thing and it's a slider and you're like oh wait I thought I was throwing a fastball but it's because the pitchy throws the most like that's kind of where Jamie Arnold was at this year where like
35:37 --> 35:50 [SPEAKER_00]: It was about forty six percent fastball usage and then like forty two percent slatter usage, but he would find himself in spots where later in the season it was like fifty percent slatter usage and forty percent fastball usage.
35:50 --> 35:58 [SPEAKER_00]: So the slider was so darn good that I think he was able to just lean on that really heavily, but he did become a little bit dependent on that.
35:58 --> 36:02 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think part of that was, hey, I need to go out there and dominate a lot of these games to try to
36:03 --> 36:05 [SPEAKER_00]: put the team on my back and help us make a run here.
36:06 --> 36:12 [SPEAKER_00]: But it did also maybe take them away a little bit from what the scouts wanted to see, which was fastball command and consistency.
36:12 --> 36:23 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think there's a little bit of concern if you're splitting hairs with his ability to get consistent platoon splits, to get righties out at the same clip that he gets lefties out.
36:23 --> 36:26 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's natural when you have that high slider usage.
36:26 --> 36:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I think it was predominantly that the strike rate across everything other than the slaughter, which was about fifty seven percent, slaughter strike rate was like seventy one percent.
36:35 --> 36:41 [SPEAKER_00]: So it was more of a consistency thing, and you see a guy with a unique release, and you say, oh, well, maybe he can't sink it all up.
36:41 --> 36:47 [SPEAKER_00]: I think he can, but the execution just wasn't quite there as much as it was at the end of era of points of last year.
36:48 --> 37:00 [SPEAKER_01]: I want to throw a couple of superlatives at you to hopefully give people listening, kind of a decent idea of what to be looking for when the draft rolls around and about, well, a week and a half at the time of recording this, there'll be a few days when we release it.
37:00 --> 37:07 [SPEAKER_01]: But I'll start with this, best fit for the Mariners is who does that to be the best player in the draft, but in your mind who's the best fit?
37:07 --> 37:14 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think Kate Anderson is the dream obviously, because I look at the situation also for Seattle, right?
37:14 --> 37:21 [SPEAKER_00]: Where I, of course, they've got all these arms here, but what, Castillo and Gilbert are two years away from free agency?
37:21 --> 37:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Is that right?
37:24 --> 37:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Logan would be two and a half right yeah Logan's two and a half right now Castile are on my think they're trading as soon as the calendar flips yeah and so I think from that perspective and you look at the farm system there's some intriguing arms but nothing I think where you're plugging in and saying hey like this is this is a guy that can be another you know key piece for us moving forward so I think in arm makes it makes all the sense in the world I know people are interested in a of our cat and things like that and I don't know I think when you look at the bats that they have throughout that farm system right now
37:53 --> 37:58 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you obviously go best player available, but you're going to have one of those arms available.
37:58 --> 38:04 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think you could pretty much make the case for any of the three being a great fit because I like Kate Anderson because
38:06 --> 38:08 [SPEAKER_00]: It's as close to can't miss.
38:08 --> 38:10 [SPEAKER_00]: I hate saying that the draft is as you can have.
38:10 --> 38:16 [SPEAKER_00]: But then I also am excited about the idea of the Mariners being able to get more out of a Liam Doyle or a Jamie Arnold.
38:16 --> 38:23 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think either way it's a win-win, but I think any of the left-handed pictures is a great scenario for them.
38:24 --> 38:27 [SPEAKER_00]: And again, I still really am intrigued by the Jamie Arnold fit.
38:27 --> 38:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I know it's a very different type of low release, but I do love that low release and it's extremely low.
38:32 --> 38:33 [SPEAKER_00]: It's like sub five feet.
38:35 --> 38:36 [SPEAKER_00]: sometimes generating that carry.
38:36 --> 38:40 [SPEAKER_00]: He struggled with the foreseamer at points this year, which is interesting from that low release.
38:40 --> 38:44 [SPEAKER_00]: It got hit really hard, but I think that's something that you get the Mariners pitching minds together.
38:45 --> 38:51 [SPEAKER_00]: They can help make some subtle tweaks to Arnold and unlock that what we thought would be number one overall pick.
38:51 --> 38:54 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think plan B, I like the Jamie Arnold fiddle lot.
38:55 --> 38:57 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so perlative number two, like I said, I got two more of these for you.
38:58 --> 39:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Most upside in the draft.
39:00 --> 39:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Who do you think?
39:01 --> 39:02 [SPEAKER_00]: most upside.
39:02 --> 39:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I think it would be Seth Hernandez, and it's also the lowest floor.
39:09 --> 39:11 [SPEAKER_00]: It's really scary taking a prep arm in the top ten.
39:12 --> 39:27 [SPEAKER_00]: It really is, but when you have a player like Seth Hernandez who, I mean, the feel for a change up he already has, and we're talking about a kid that six four, two hundred pounds, works down the mound so comfortably already, fastball that can
39:28 --> 39:29 [SPEAKER_00]: I low effort get into the upper nineties.
39:30 --> 39:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I feel like that's a guy that with with that arsenal, you can just dream on a ridiculous amount of upside.
39:35 --> 39:37 [SPEAKER_00]: So I would say Seth Hernandez.
39:38 --> 39:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, actually, you kind of answered both the next couple of superlives in one right there because I was going to ask you who you feel like the biggest risk is or who warrants the most concern toward the top of the draft.
39:47 --> 39:48 [SPEAKER_01]: So let me follow up with this.
39:50 --> 39:52 [SPEAKER_01]: I think Seth Hernandez is super interesting.
39:52 --> 39:56 [SPEAKER_01]: I think like his upside is something you can dream on, but just so people have both sides.
39:57 --> 39:59 [SPEAKER_01]: What warrants what people would call a potentially low floor?
40:00 --> 40:10 [SPEAKER_00]: just the archetype to be honest and maybe that's not fair to Seth Hernandez, but just high school hard throwing right handers have a rough track record.
40:10 --> 40:14 [SPEAKER_00]: It's the same way that high school catchers in the draft have a rough track record.
40:14 --> 40:17 [SPEAKER_00]: Does that mean every high school catcher is going to be a bad traffic?
40:17 --> 40:17 [SPEAKER_00]: Of course not.
40:17 --> 40:20 [SPEAKER_00]: We've seen some really good high school catchers that drop to it.
40:20 --> 40:26 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you look at Harry Forty's turning out to be a nice piece, but even that's been a bit of a roller coaster and he's a really good player.
40:27 --> 40:33 [SPEAKER_00]: So it's more the archetype than anything between the health, between the volatility and general, Dylan Westco, for example.
40:34 --> 40:38 [SPEAKER_00]: I know he underwent Tommy John Surgery prior to the draft, but that was a guy that was
40:39 --> 40:45 [SPEAKER_00]: The biggest thing that I think people loved about him was, oh my gosh, that might be the cleanest delivery we've seen since Josh Beckett.
40:46 --> 40:48 [SPEAKER_00]: That guy just fills up the zone.
40:48 --> 40:52 [SPEAKER_00]: He can't throw strikes right now, and it's actually it's tough to see.
40:52 --> 41:06 [SPEAKER_00]: So if you just never know, and I think that's why that archetype ends up coming with so much volatility, but I'd also say you can holiday too, because it's massive power, but there's a chance he could move off of short, and there's the swing and misconception relative to the other guys.
41:06 --> 41:08 [SPEAKER_00]: So if he's moving to third,
41:09 --> 41:10 [SPEAKER_00]: and it's power over hit.
41:11 --> 41:14 [SPEAKER_00]: He's got a really, really mash, and that all of the sudden puts in pressure.
41:15 --> 41:21 [SPEAKER_02]: For those who aren't familiar, tell us the difference between Ethan and his brother Jackson, who went number one overall few years ago.
41:22 --> 41:30 [SPEAKER_00]: It's funny, they're actually like quite different, which is cool, because I think it makes it easier to separate them a little bit, though it's, you know, it's never going to happen.
41:31 --> 41:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Jackson, of course, a lot more hit tool driven.
41:34 --> 41:41 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you're seeing the power starts to come through a bit more, but it was always about the hit tool in the approach.
41:41 --> 41:43 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why Jackson moves so quickly through the minor leagues.
41:44 --> 41:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Whereas Ethan, I think it's going to be a bit more of a project.
41:47 --> 41:48 [SPEAKER_00]: He's a bit more physical.
41:49 --> 41:51 [SPEAKER_00]: And you see that in the EVs and in the impact.
41:51 --> 41:57 [SPEAKER_00]: And he's made, I think, a steady improvement in terms of the hit tool side of things.
41:58 --> 42:10 [SPEAKER_00]: But I would say, holiday, you're looking at more of that big body left side of the infield guy that gets a powerful, but somewhat lofty swing off with Ethan, I should say, with Jackson, it's more of that
42:11 --> 42:18 [SPEAKER_00]: hit tool driven speedy can stick it short, but even him, it was more of the second base profile if he moved off the short as we saw.
42:19 --> 42:21 [SPEAKER_00]: Whereas holiday, it's the third base profile if he moves off the short.
42:22 --> 42:32 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think that almost is a great way of summoning up really simply, but it's what makes I think Ethan a little bit more risky, but also a higher ceiling potentially as well.
42:32 --> 42:35 [SPEAKER_02]: So that's one of the options for high school short stops.
42:35 --> 42:38 [SPEAKER_02]: There are four others, Lou and I have talked about that could be an option there.
42:38 --> 42:42 [SPEAKER_02]: Number three, Eli Willitz, Jojo Parker, Steel Hall, Billy Carlson.
42:42 --> 42:47 [SPEAKER_02]: What would be a reason the Mariners would pick any of the, any of the four could give me one for each of them?
42:47 --> 42:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I would say ceiling on holiday, right?
42:50 --> 43:01 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you have an opportunity here to grab a power bat who I think is made progress to make his case to be able to potentially stick a short and they'll get a coat Emerson and his progression to short stop.
43:01 --> 43:04 [SPEAKER_00]: He's turned himself into such a solid defender there.
43:04 --> 43:07 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe that was all cold Emerson, but you got to give the Mariners some credit there too.
43:07 --> 43:12 [SPEAKER_00]: So maybe they have some confidence in their ability to develop guys on that left side of the infield now and potentially stick it short.
43:12 --> 43:15 [SPEAKER_00]: So that could be an encouraging aspect.
43:15 --> 43:21 [SPEAKER_00]: But I would say the ceiling because you have a lot of good bats in the system right now and you could go with a hit tool driven guy like Jojo Parker.
43:23 --> 43:26 [SPEAKER_00]: If he puts it all together, it could look a lot like Cole Young.
43:26 --> 43:27 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's fine.
43:27 --> 43:28 [SPEAKER_00]: That's still a really good player.
43:28 --> 43:28 [SPEAKER_00]: I like Cole Young.
43:29 --> 43:31 [SPEAKER_00]: But at three maybe you want to shoot a little bit higher.
43:32 --> 43:37 [SPEAKER_00]: So with Joe Joe, I think he's a good candidate because the floor is a little bit higher perceived to be.
43:38 --> 43:39 [SPEAKER_00]: They hit to was so darn good.
43:40 --> 43:44 [SPEAKER_00]: And it seems like he's going to have a great chance to be that Cole Young type.
43:44 --> 43:53 [SPEAKER_00]: When you look at any lie willets, I think he's that some of the parts, you know, some of his parts kind of guy, which is why I think he might be the best of the bunch in the short stops.
43:53 --> 44:00 [SPEAKER_00]: There might be, you know, Ethan Holiday puts together, he might have a higher ceiling, but I like to be across the board well-rounded player.
44:01 --> 44:07 [SPEAKER_00]: And as we've seen, power has become easier for teams to develop in guys.
44:07 --> 44:08 [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, if you're
44:08 --> 44:13 [SPEAKER_00]: five foot eight, and don't have a much projection physically.
44:13 --> 44:16 [SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to be able to get a guy like that to start producing more power.
44:16 --> 44:23 [SPEAKER_00]: But any who I will, it's type who can stick at shortstop, who has the field to hit, who I think flashes a little bit more power, potential than a parker.
44:23 --> 44:26 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a guy that I think you can mold and push forward.
44:26 --> 44:29 [SPEAKER_00]: And again, I look at what the Mariners have done with some of their guys.
44:30 --> 44:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I think Emerson fits the mold a little bit too, where well, it could be a good example of maybe somebody that they could get more out of.
44:36 --> 44:39 [SPEAKER_00]: And then Billy Carlson, I think that's the other guy that has that upside.
44:39 --> 44:53 [SPEAKER_00]: So if you wanted to roll the dice on upside and the fact that you could probably save money because I think Carlson's camp would see that, hey, if we don't go here, there's a lot of other teams that are probably going to call and do their due diligence, but if he doesn't give a little bit of a discount,
44:54 --> 44:58 [SPEAKER_00]: He could find himself sliding down to that eight, nine, ten spot kind of quickly.
44:58 --> 45:03 [SPEAKER_00]: So Mariners could get creative and probably carve out the most savings with the corals in there.
45:03 --> 45:09 [SPEAKER_00]: I least that's how I see it because there's more risk with the hit tool and he's a free gathlete with an AD arm.
45:09 --> 45:12 [SPEAKER_00]: So that would be the role of the dice tools he play that could save you some money.
45:13 --> 45:16 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think Will, it's gives you that some of his parts really well around a game.
45:17 --> 45:17 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
45:17 --> 45:20 [SPEAKER_02]: It's steel hauled not going at three.
45:21 --> 45:23 [SPEAKER_00]: That would be another savings option.
45:24 --> 45:25 [SPEAKER_00]: I would be very surprised.
45:25 --> 45:28 [SPEAKER_00]: But nothing, I think, is purely shocking there.
45:28 --> 45:36 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think when you look at what Steel Hall is capable of as just a guy that can absolutely fly and stick it short, I wouldn't rule anything out.
45:36 --> 45:39 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think that other group is just ahead of them.
45:40 --> 45:51 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so, I mean, so, and what you mentioned there about somebody like Carlson makes sense, especially when you're a team like the Mariners that, for example, last year, got creative to overslaught Sloan to get him in the second round.
45:51 --> 46:05 [SPEAKER_01]: Personally, I hope when you're picking it a spot like this, you just take the swing on the guy that's gonna, like, has the best chance to be a star, but if you're the Mariners and you like to get creative, there is a world they could underslaught somebody at three, try to shoot a little bit higher when they get back to the end of the first round.
46:05 --> 46:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Let me follow up with a couple of the answers you just gave.
46:08 --> 46:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Number one would be,
46:10 --> 46:27 [SPEAKER_01]: can you tell us a little bit more about Eli Willets because he feels like a guy that has just consistently been there in every mock draft, but he feels like he's almost so much less famous at this point than someone like anything holiday and a couple of the other guys that have been talked about at the top of the draft like Kate Anderson, but again, he's always right in that conversation.
46:27 --> 46:28 [SPEAKER_01]: It's like why do people like this guy?
46:29 --> 46:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's just the well-rounded nature of his game.
46:32 --> 46:40 [SPEAKER_00]: And I look at a Cooper Pratt right now who just gets rave reviews in the brewer's organization for what he does and nothing jumps off the page there.
46:41 --> 46:52 [SPEAKER_00]: But every scout you talk to, every team in their internal lists, they seem to have this guy's top-fifty prospect in baseball because of the way that he is able to impact the game in so many different ways.
46:52 --> 46:57 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's something that really takes a lot of pressure off of
46:58 --> 47:06 [SPEAKER_00]: When you're looking at it from this perspective, Jojo Parker, for example, hit tools his best is his carrying trade.
47:07 --> 47:10 [SPEAKER_00]: You don't know if he's going to stick it short, you don't know how much power is going to be there.
47:10 --> 47:13 [SPEAKER_00]: If that guy doesn't hit, like you think he's going to hit,
47:14 --> 47:18 [SPEAKER_00]: It's a very up-it-steep uphill battle to be that two-three-war player.
47:18 --> 47:28 [SPEAKER_00]: With Willet, it's like, okay, maybe the glove wasn't as good as we thought, but if they hit in power and speed and everything else plays, that's gonna be just fine, or vice versa.
47:28 --> 47:38 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think it gives you more opportunity to be right, and I think that's a huge part of it where you can look at a guy here that's fifties to fifties across the board, potentially a six-year runner.
47:38 --> 47:41 [SPEAKER_00]: And even if you misjudged one aspect of his game,
47:41 --> 47:45 [SPEAKER_00]: Your confidence interval is higher because he can impact the game in so many different ways.
47:45 --> 47:49 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think what he's really proven to do here is that you can stick a short stop.
47:49 --> 47:59 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think once he really showed that side of things and that the hit tool was above average, I think people were willing to say, hey, we don't see sky high ceiling or tools off the charts right now.
47:59 --> 48:03 [SPEAKER_00]: But we didn't see that with a lot of other guys in the prep ranks that have made a leap so over the last couple years.
48:03 --> 48:09 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's the big thing is even if one aspect of his game maybe isn't as
48:10 --> 48:11 [SPEAKER_00]: prevalent as you thought.
48:12 --> 48:22 [SPEAKER_00]: There's so many other areas where he can make an impact that I think it makes scouts and amateur just scouting departments feel a little bit more comfortable about taking a guy like this.
48:23 --> 48:50 [SPEAKER_01]: My other follow up to that was just so people here both sides of the Ethan holiday argument because for people that aren't as tuned in on the draft is you are you obviously hear the name you know his family ties you know he's got the chance to be really good and you talked about his upside is high and his ceiling could be a thirty to thirty five home run type third baseman but when you say there is some risk associated with them if things were to not work out with holiday are you talking something like a two twenty hitting high strike out type third baseman
48:51 --> 49:03 [SPEAKER_00]: that is the concern right like is he's six four like hundred ninety five pounds like it it's it's big and so like yeah if he moves a third now it's like okay you really need to mash but he could he could be that
49:05 --> 49:07 [SPEAKER_00]: Kyle Seagre type and you feel good about that, right?
49:07 --> 49:10 [SPEAKER_00]: And like that isn't even I think a peak outcome.
49:10 --> 49:13 [SPEAKER_00]: So there's still ways that he can be successful.
49:14 --> 49:20 [SPEAKER_00]: But what does make me feel confident in the fact that even if the hit tool was forty grade or forty five grade.
49:21 --> 49:28 [SPEAKER_00]: the plate discipline, the feel for the strike zone is so solid that, you know, he can be that three true outcome soccer.
49:28 --> 49:29 [SPEAKER_00]: So it gives him a good backup plan.
49:29 --> 49:35 [SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that ultimately is the concern is that the hit tool won't totally be there.
49:35 --> 49:42 [SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that when you see what he can do from a power perspective, or he's at already physically, I think that's really encouraging.
49:43 --> 49:48 [SPEAKER_00]: The other side of it too though is, well, it's just like eight months younger than an eighth in holiday.
49:48 --> 49:50 [SPEAKER_00]: So when he's talking about draft models and things like that, of course,
49:50 --> 49:55 [SPEAKER_00]: That's going to bump up Willet a little bit more too, especially for a holiday who's a little bit more physically.
49:55 --> 49:58 [SPEAKER_00]: I think mature at this point as well.
49:58 --> 50:06 [SPEAKER_00]: But when you have the improvements at least that he's slowly making with his left hand at swing and the potential power wise, I think there's a lot to like there.
50:07 --> 50:10 [SPEAKER_00]: But you just got to be willing to handle the risk.
50:10 --> 50:18 [SPEAKER_00]: The other side of it, too, is I don't know if Ethan Holiday is going to be as willing to take a pay cut at three as maybe some of the other targets may be.
50:19 --> 50:21 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's throw another hypothetical at you, Aaron.
50:21 --> 50:27 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's say the Mariners want a short stop, but instead of one of the high schoolers, they end up deciding they want Iva Arcette.
50:27 --> 50:29 [SPEAKER_02]: Why would they be making that decision?
50:32 --> 50:33 [SPEAKER_00]: I think I think it would be price dependent.
50:34 --> 50:40 [SPEAKER_00]: I think if you have an opt because I love the way that the Mariners are maneuvered the draft to last couple years.
50:40 --> 50:42 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think for Arcette,
50:43 --> 50:51 [SPEAKER_00]: You could have an opportunity here to potentially save a little bit who knows though, because you could end up having a situation where our cat has team right behind them.
50:52 --> 50:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe the Cardinals are all over it, or maybe the Rockies are all over it, and maybe you aren't able to save much money.
50:56 --> 51:04 [SPEAKER_00]: But if there's some other guys that they like that they think that they can over slot, you know, later, like I don't think Cason Cunningham would fall, but they could buy him down.
51:05 --> 51:08 [SPEAKER_00]: So then you have a prepster there and you're able to get your college guy.
51:08 --> 51:16 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the main way that I would be pushed in that direction would really be because of the savings.
51:16 --> 51:24 [SPEAKER_00]: Otherwise, given where the Mariners farm system's at and the talent that they have in general, I would probably lean toward to prep kids because our kid, he's great.
51:24 --> 51:26 [SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a lot to like there.
51:26 --> 51:28 [SPEAKER_00]: There's still always the chance any moves off of short.
51:29 --> 51:35 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think there's a little bit of swing and miss there for a college bat that there's still some risk to be implied there.
51:35 --> 51:42 [SPEAKER_00]: You six, five, two, twenty long levers, like there's still some risk for potentially the first college bat off the board.
51:43 --> 51:50 [SPEAKER_00]: And so if you're not really saving any there, I may lean towards the high school guys that could maybe have a little bit more while rounded of a game.
51:51 --> 51:54 [SPEAKER_02]: And what's the gap between him and the rest of the college bat?
51:54 --> 51:55 [SPEAKER_02]: So let's say I Irish.
51:57 --> 52:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I would say still a decent gap, nothing crazy.
52:03 --> 52:16 [SPEAKER_00]: I think Irish has done a great job of closing that gap, but I think there's still more power to dream on with our cat, and I think that's what really ends up pushing him up, and if he does move to third, I think it could be a really good third, whereas Irish
52:17 --> 52:21 [SPEAKER_00]: If he catches, that would be great, but it doesn't look like he's really going to be doing that.
52:21 --> 52:24 [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be corner outfield and he's got a really mashed there.
52:24 --> 52:29 [SPEAKER_00]: So I also look at Irish with a little bit more underlying swing and miss and a little bit more ground ball.
52:30 --> 52:36 [SPEAKER_00]: I think I feel a little bit better about the hit tool translating for our cat and the raw power is right there if not slightly above.
52:36 --> 52:44 [SPEAKER_00]: So you get a little bit more defensive value, a little bit more hit hit I think confidence, and then the power is right there if not slightly more prevalent, at least in the raw territory.
52:45 --> 52:58 [SPEAKER_01]: You're not going to have a perfect answer on this, but I am still curious to see about the ballpark you're in when getting on this topic, but you talked about if the Mariners were to take I've arched at three, there would be potentially some money saved.
52:58 --> 53:01 [SPEAKER_01]: How much, under slot do you think they'd saved by drafting them?
53:02 --> 53:08 [SPEAKER_00]: It really depends on what the other teams are or thinking, you know, and where they're gravitating towards.
53:08 --> 53:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Because if I do think that we could see a scenario where, you know, if
53:16 --> 53:18 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's say they want to go the arcade route.
53:18 --> 53:19 [SPEAKER_00]: That means that one of the left handed arms fell.
53:19 --> 53:20 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
53:20 --> 53:24 [SPEAKER_00]: And if one of the left handed arms fell, that very well could be a Rockies pick.
53:25 --> 53:30 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the Rockies would love Jamie Arnold, the way that they target funky, weird throwing lefties.
53:30 --> 53:34 [SPEAKER_00]: And then you're telling me that the Cardinals are going to pass on a holiday.
53:34 --> 53:37 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if they would do that because that'd be another presumption that
53:38 --> 53:40 [SPEAKER_00]: you would be able to get a holiday there.
53:40 --> 53:43 [SPEAKER_00]: So then that means all of a sudden our cat could be slipping to six or seven.
53:43 --> 53:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Does he want to play for the pirates or the marlins?
53:46 --> 53:47 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
53:48 --> 53:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Especially with their infrastructure hitting development wise.
53:51 --> 53:52 [SPEAKER_00]: I know Connor Griffin's been great.
53:52 --> 53:53 [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's more credit to Connor Griffin.
53:55 --> 53:57 [SPEAKER_00]: All of a sudden, you could be slipping to that six, seven spot.
53:57 --> 53:59 [SPEAKER_00]: So I would say probably
54:00 --> 54:05 [SPEAKER_00]: The savings would be the difference between the third spot and probably the sixth spot.
54:05 --> 54:11 [SPEAKER_00]: So I would say somewhere between the fifth slot value of the fifth selection and the sixth selection.
54:11 --> 54:16 [SPEAKER_00]: So I don't have that exactly in front of me right now, but I'd imagine it's still a pretty nice chunk of change there.
54:17 --> 54:20 [SPEAKER_00]: If they're able to save that much, that could help you buy down a guy.
54:20 --> 54:26 [SPEAKER_00]: But I would say probably about two spots there worth of slot value would be my uneducated guess.
54:27 --> 54:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that is interesting just because
54:29 --> 54:47 [SPEAKER_01]: like I think a lot of people and not that you're ever drafting a please a fan base but I'm just thinking about what the general perception would be I feel like a lot of people would be very happy to see our cake had taken it three and if the marina's did that but then they also saved enough money to really overslaught somebody at that late first round peck in the in the compound
54:47 --> 54:57 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, I think like I guess I had the mindset of they're going to have to really understand somebody at three if they want to save if they want to save and really get creative at the end, but maybe that's not true.
54:57 --> 55:01 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe even just somebody liking our cat saves you enough to get what you want to get later on.
55:01 --> 55:10 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, the slot, so slot values nine point five at the third overall pick and quickly drops to eight point one million at the fifth pick.
55:10 --> 55:16 [SPEAKER_00]: So even if you wanted to go slightly about, you could go eight five, you're saving a million bucks there and if I'm him,
55:17 --> 55:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I think I'm jumping on the opportunity to like there's a big drop off between the Mariners to the Rockies of course the Cardinals will be a good opportunity but who knows the Cardinals may be more and I think I would guess that they'd be more in on on high school bat there they haven't done that in a while but it could make sense in this draft for them especially with the way things could shake out
55:36 --> 55:44 [SPEAKER_00]: And then again, would you rather be excited with the Mariners or ending up potentially making less money anyways with the pirates or the marlins.
55:44 --> 55:49 [SPEAKER_00]: So I do think they can end up saving a million bucks potentially and still taking an arcette there.
55:50 --> 55:53 [SPEAKER_00]: And unless there's a lot of steam for our cat to the angels or
55:54 --> 56:12 [SPEAKER_00]: still to the cardinals and at that point the leverage kind of gets lost but the team the leverage what you always have is you really want to roll the dice and see what happens runoff wise here look at what happened to JJ weather hold last year right like he didn't take that that full discount with the guardians niece left all the way to seven like that stuff always happens so you never know
56:13 --> 56:26 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and then with our cat too, one, you'd be playing for a better organization, but two, like, not that this factors everything into account, but familiar with the area, you know, played at you, duh, played at Oregon State, like, has the Pacific Northwest ties, all that.
56:26 --> 56:28 [SPEAKER_01]: I, that doesn't hurt, it really doesn't.
56:29 --> 56:40 [SPEAKER_02]: The later we get in the draft arm, the more random it gets, but if you're to give your best guess at thirty five, the Mariners second pick in the draft, could you give us a couple ideas what the Mariners might be looking at?
56:41 --> 56:59 [SPEAKER_00]: I want to I want to I guess they buy somebody down and I just they do a great job of doing that right and so I think of course depends what they do with the first pick but let's operate under the assumption they go arm with the first pick and don't save as much that's where I could see maybe
57:00 --> 57:06 [SPEAKER_00]: I like, I don't know if they'd be able, I don't think he's going to slip there, but like a Caden Bowdoin would be a fun pick.
57:06 --> 57:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I know that they have Cal Raleigh, but that'd be a hard player to pass on.
57:09 --> 57:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Slider to Braun, I think, is had a lot of helium as well.
57:12 --> 57:16 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's another kid that's from the Northwest area, if I'm not mistaken, right?
57:17 --> 57:19 [SPEAKER_00]: Slider to Braun makes a lot of sense for me.
57:19 --> 57:28 [SPEAKER_00]: He actually gets some, like, some Corbin Carroll comps, and because he's a little bit more compact, toolsy, I think a fun player that
57:29 --> 57:32 [SPEAKER_00]: you could potentially snag if he slips a little bit further.
57:33 --> 57:40 [SPEAKER_00]: But I also think if they could find a way to buy down case in Cunningham, that's a hit over everything guy, but I love the swing.
57:40 --> 57:46 [SPEAKER_00]: And if you go, let's say you go bat earlier and you save some money, but you go kind of higher risk, higher variance bat.
57:47 --> 57:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Cunningham could be a guy that you buy down as a higher floor bat as well.
57:50 --> 57:52 [SPEAKER_00]: And we've seen them not shy away from going.
57:52 --> 57:54 [SPEAKER_00]: three prepster bats in one draft.
57:54 --> 57:56 [SPEAKER_00]: We were together when they did that a couple years ago.
57:56 --> 58:02 [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I could see that case in Cunningham would make a lot of sense if they could save enough to buy him down.
58:02 --> 58:10 [SPEAKER_00]: But I do really like the slider to run fit as a high school kid that they've probably gotten as many looks at as just about anybody and does seem to be like a good fit.
58:10 --> 58:11 [SPEAKER_00]: And then
58:11 --> 58:13 [SPEAKER_00]: I would say cruise schoolcraft is well.
58:13 --> 58:16 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, just another lefty who's had a lot of helium.
58:17 --> 58:24 [SPEAKER_00]: There's some first round discussion to him, but if he slips just a little bit, I could see the Mariners being all over that as well.
58:25 --> 58:26 [SPEAKER_01]: Super interesting.
58:27 --> 58:28 [SPEAKER_01]: Man, I can't wait.
58:29 --> 58:35 [SPEAKER_01]: We're getting so close to the draft that I'm just ready to see it all play out because we've talked about these names now forever and we've gotten to know the class, but
58:36 --> 58:41 [SPEAKER_01]: It's going to shake out here in just a few days when it's episode releases so I'm fired up for it.
58:41 --> 58:52 [SPEAKER_00]: And the feedback that I keep getting from some teams and just people involved in the process right now is basically once you get outside of the top five
58:54 --> 58:55 [SPEAKER_00]: That all hell is going to break.
58:55 --> 58:57 [SPEAKER_00]: Looks like no idea what could happen.
58:57 --> 59:09 [SPEAKER_00]: If a decent feeling about who the candidates are for the top five and then the net that you could cast outside of the top five apparently like when you get from five to fifteen could be a pool of like thirty players.
59:10 --> 59:15 [SPEAKER_00]: It is wide, wide, wide open, which then I think does trickle all the way down to that compensation pick.
59:15 --> 59:17 [SPEAKER_00]: Because there's always that player that slides out.
59:17 --> 59:19 [SPEAKER_00]: He might think he's going to college.
59:19 --> 59:20 [SPEAKER_00]: You say enough money, you can change his mind.
59:20 --> 59:29 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think with the bonus pool situation here, Mariners could have a little bit more to work with, but they still, I think have more than enough to be able to get creative and make something happen.
59:30 --> 59:34 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's crazy because you say there's more clarity in the top five.
59:34 --> 59:38 [SPEAKER_01]: There is about the general consensus of who will be up there, but nobody knows who's going one right now.
59:38 --> 59:39 [SPEAKER_01]: It's like a total smoke screen.
59:40 --> 59:42 [SPEAKER_01]: It could be Kate Anderson, but I don't think anybody's confident about it.
59:42 --> 59:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Nope.
59:43 --> 59:46 [SPEAKER_00]: They just know that at least it's one of a few names, whereas then you get to six and seven.
59:47 --> 59:49 [SPEAKER_00]: It could be one of fifteen names.
59:49 --> 59:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
59:49 --> 59:53 [SPEAKER_00]: That's why this draft is going to be so fun, but also so hard to predict.
59:56 --> 01:00:03 [SPEAKER_01]: We can get into some prospect stuff if we want to transition a little bit because we did want to hit on some guys that the Mariners have in the system before we let you go here.
01:00:03 --> 01:00:11 [SPEAKER_01]: If you were to take a look, which I know you know this system up and down, is there somebody you're pointing at and you're saying, I think this guy's really going to have a breakout second half.
01:00:14 --> 01:00:20 [SPEAKER_01]: Or it could even even even be one of the blue chip guys and one of the higher in prospects that just has a really good second half.
01:00:20 --> 01:00:32 [SPEAKER_00]: It's funny because like I it's such a chalk answer, but just watching what he's been doing and looking at the battle ball quality, I do think that you're about to see Cole Emerson really take that step that we've been waiting for.
01:00:32 --> 01:00:35 [SPEAKER_00]: He's already elevating the ball much more consistently of late.
01:00:35 --> 01:00:40 [SPEAKER_00]: I've already talked about the defense and where I think he's out there and I think just the fact that he's more comfortable and short and general.
01:00:40 --> 01:00:47 [SPEAKER_00]: It's probably just allowing the game to come more easily to him and he's not as overwhelmed and can kind of focus on hitting and that's how the things.
01:00:47 --> 01:00:52 [SPEAKER_00]: But when you look at the numbers, through his first thirty games, this year he had a sixty percent ground ball rate.
01:00:52 --> 01:00:55 [SPEAKER_00]: Since then, that ground ball rate has dropped to forty five percent.
01:00:56 --> 01:00:58 [SPEAKER_00]: The the eggs of velocities have been there, right?
01:00:58 --> 01:00:59 [SPEAKER_00]: The contact rates have been there.
01:00:59 --> 01:01:04 [SPEAKER_00]: It's just been the launch angles and the spray and for that to already be getting better here,
01:01:05 --> 01:01:19 [SPEAKER_00]: At nineteen years old, I think he's going to have a monster second half and not only just in the system, I think he's a candidate to I think be one of the better hitters in mind of baseball over the second half with again what you already had underlying and what he's already starting to do here.
01:01:20 --> 01:01:31 [SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a lot to like in terms of of the offensive ability there and then I'm trying to think of maybe a lower a lower on the rankings kind of name that that could
01:01:33 --> 01:01:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I guess break out or show them a little bit more.
01:01:36 --> 01:01:49 [SPEAKER_00]: I just want to healthy Johnny Farmello so about because I know that once he's healthy and ready to go, he's going to be putting up some monster numbers and he was already doing it before he hit the IL again and had that rib issue.
01:01:49 --> 01:01:54 [SPEAKER_00]: But I'm trying to think of another player that could really make that leap.
01:01:54 --> 01:02:01 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think the Colt Emerson shout is just, I think he's going to go nuts over this next couple months here.
01:02:02 --> 01:02:10 [SPEAKER_02]: I want to ask you about the guy that I think besides Colt would be the most popular name in the Mariners Farm System right now as Lizara Montes.
01:02:10 --> 01:02:12 [SPEAKER_02]: He got promoted to AA a couple weeks ago.
01:02:12 --> 01:02:14 [SPEAKER_02]: He's already been crushing some home runs.
01:02:14 --> 01:02:16 [SPEAKER_02]: He's still showing the power up there in AA.
01:02:16 --> 01:02:22 [SPEAKER_02]: The way loud and I have approached it given he's so young at that level is that you can give him an entire year in AA.
01:02:23 --> 01:02:33 [SPEAKER_02]: then you even start thinking about what you're going to do next with them because he'll still be one of the youngest players at that level and if you want to promote him, he'll be one of the youngest players at the next level you promote him to as well.
01:02:33 --> 01:02:45 [SPEAKER_02]: When you see him as a prospect and how he's developed this year last year, what you keep looking for in him at AA that he's going to need to clean up to go higher and what have you liked and what's been positive.
01:02:45 --> 01:02:51 [SPEAKER_00]: What I like is he's getting back into the strength again, like in terms of I think last year and it was a good
01:02:52 --> 01:03:05 [SPEAKER_00]: step to take, I think we saw him a little bit more contact oriented for his standards and in terms of just like he wasn't getting his A swing off as consistently as you'd want, which sounds crazy because he hit twenty one home runs, right?
01:03:05 --> 01:03:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Like this isn't an indictment on him.
01:03:06 --> 01:03:07 [SPEAKER_00]: It's more of just
01:03:08 --> 01:03:17 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you saw him surviving a bit more and then he'd have these towards stretches where he got really comfortable but then there'd be stretches where it just seemed like he was on his heels a little bit and there's a lot of bee swings.
01:03:17 --> 01:03:21 [SPEAKER_00]: The good news is his bee swing is still the home run a lot of times like if he catches it right.
01:03:21 --> 01:03:26 [SPEAKER_00]: But this year I'm just seeing him get that a swing off way more consistently.
01:03:26 --> 01:03:28 [SPEAKER_00]: His hard hit rate is jumped by fourteen percent this year.
01:03:28 --> 01:03:31 [SPEAKER_00]: It's a fifty percent which is outrageously good.
01:03:31 --> 01:03:36 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think part of it, too, was, okay, I need to hit Breaking Balls better, which I get.
01:03:36 --> 01:03:38 [SPEAKER_00]: And that was a big part of it for him.
01:03:38 --> 01:03:41 [SPEAKER_00]: Let me recognize Breaking Balls won't be able to still hit Breaking Balls hard.
01:03:41 --> 01:03:45 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think this year, of course, he's still trying to improve in that regard.
01:03:45 --> 01:03:47 [SPEAKER_00]: But it was also, I crush heaters.
01:03:48 --> 01:03:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Let me get back to just demolishing heaters, as well as anybody in the minor leagues.
01:03:52 --> 01:03:53 [SPEAKER_00]: I'll crush hangers.
01:03:54 --> 01:03:57 [SPEAKER_00]: And if I get beat by Good Breaking Balls here and there, I'll get beat by Good Breaking Balls here and there.
01:03:57 --> 01:04:01 [SPEAKER_00]: He's a Fortune-Hundred OPS against Four Seamers and Sankers this year.
01:04:01 --> 01:04:06 [SPEAKER_00]: You can make a living off of crushing four seamers and hanging breaking balls and that'll work.
01:04:07 --> 01:04:09 [SPEAKER_00]: And as you get more reps in, you'll hit breaking balls better and better.
01:04:09 --> 01:04:14 [SPEAKER_00]: But the reality is that the big league level, you can have, you can be as primed up as possible to hit breaking balls.
01:04:14 --> 01:04:20 [SPEAKER_00]: And if it's a good pitch and it's well executed and well located, you're just gonna have to tip your cap a lot of the time.
01:04:20 --> 01:04:24 [SPEAKER_00]: So it's been nice to see Lazarot hedge those weaknesses and he took a big step in doing that last year.
01:04:24 --> 01:04:28 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think now he's gotten comfortable enough to where he's leaning back into the strengths again.
01:04:28 --> 01:04:29 [SPEAKER_00]: And it's, I'm gonna ambush heaters
01:04:30 --> 01:04:34 [SPEAKER_00]: But I'm also, okay, getting deep in accounts and trying to survive there too.
01:04:34 --> 01:04:37 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think it was a little passive at points last year.
01:04:37 --> 01:04:43 [SPEAKER_00]: And now he's getting that ace wing off and we're seeing the contact quality make a huge leap this year.
01:04:44 --> 01:04:49 [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm excited to see if he's able to keep doing that in double A where the stuff is going to be a little bit better.
01:04:49 --> 01:04:51 [SPEAKER_00]: And so far, he has.
01:04:51 --> 01:04:53 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's been awesome in the early going in double A.
01:04:55 --> 01:05:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Last one I've got for you is for all the time we've spent talking about this year's draft.
01:05:00 --> 01:05:15 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm curious where your where your evaluation is now a year into the guys the mariners took in last year's draft in the two big arms in georangelo sanger and Ryan Sloan because both guys have some serious helium so from your perspective what's jumped out to you about those two.
01:05:16 --> 01:05:25 [SPEAKER_00]: Um, and also I just thought of a name real quick that I think is going to hopefully if he's healthy.
01:05:26 --> 01:05:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I, I, I'm trying to remember which hitter I was watching tape on, but he got soul snatch.
01:05:32 --> 01:05:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm pretty sure it was, it was Charlie Condon.
01:05:35 --> 01:05:37 [SPEAKER_00]: I got so snatched by Teddy McGraw.
01:05:37 --> 01:05:40 [SPEAKER_00]: And then that just led me to go back to watching more Teddy McGraw again.
01:05:40 --> 01:05:43 [SPEAKER_00]: And I know last time how he wasn't great, but finally, healthy.
01:05:44 --> 01:05:46 [SPEAKER_00]: As long as he's healthy, that stuff's going to play.
01:05:46 --> 01:05:47 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't care if it's as a reliever.
01:05:47 --> 01:05:48 [SPEAKER_00]: However, they want to use him.
01:05:48 --> 01:05:50 [SPEAKER_00]: The stuff is just too darn good.
01:05:50 --> 01:05:54 [SPEAKER_00]: So that's a guy that I think could really burst onto the scene if he gets the opportunity to stay healthy.
01:05:54 --> 01:05:56 [SPEAKER_00]: But to answer your question.
01:05:57 --> 01:06:01 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think you've got to be thrilled with the results so far, especially with Ryan Sloan.
01:06:02 --> 01:06:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Sloan was a guy that after I watched a couple of starts this year.
01:06:05 --> 01:06:09 [SPEAKER_00]: He pitches way on to our top one hundred list because it's what you can dream on, right?
01:06:09 --> 01:06:15 [SPEAKER_00]: He's six, five, two, twenty, nineteen years old and already is filling up the strike zone at a ridiculous clip for a prep righty.
01:06:15 --> 01:06:16 [SPEAKER_00]: You know what you're talking about?
01:06:16 --> 01:06:18 [SPEAKER_00]: The volatility of prep righty's and things like that.
01:06:19 --> 01:06:21 [SPEAKER_00]: You wouldn't know it with Ryan Sloan the way that he's looked.
01:06:21 --> 01:06:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Five percent walk rate.
01:06:22 --> 01:06:24 [SPEAKER_00]: The fastballs averaging ninety five.
01:06:24 --> 01:06:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Now the characteristics could be a little bit better and that's something that you can improve over time.
01:06:28 --> 01:06:30 [SPEAKER_00]: But that sweeper is disgusting.
01:06:30 --> 01:06:32 [SPEAKER_00]: Like that is a plus pitch already.
01:06:32 --> 01:06:37 [SPEAKER_00]: And then he's flashing this splitter that I'd like to see him throw a little bit more and he started to
01:06:38 --> 01:06:40 [SPEAKER_00]: I think included a bit more, it's about ten percent of the time now.
01:06:41 --> 01:06:42 [SPEAKER_00]: And that pitch is looked really good as well.
01:06:43 --> 01:06:45 [SPEAKER_00]: So that looks like that can be in above average offering.
01:06:45 --> 01:06:46 [SPEAKER_00]: He's mixing a cutter also.
01:06:46 --> 01:06:52 [SPEAKER_00]: You have the potential for a quality four pitch mix here from a six, five, right, if you throw strikes at a plus clip right now.
01:06:53 --> 01:06:54 [SPEAKER_00]: That guy could be a monster.
01:06:54 --> 01:07:02 [SPEAKER_00]: And then Duranjo is saying, it's funny because it feels like he's almost a little bit more of a project than Ryan Sloan, which isn't the worst thing in the world because
01:07:03 --> 01:07:04 [SPEAKER_00]: He hasn't been pitching that long, right?
01:07:04 --> 01:07:10 [SPEAKER_00]: He's been throwing with both arms, but he was also a switch hitting position player in the early going of his collegiate career as well.
01:07:11 --> 01:07:12 [SPEAKER_00]: We've talked about it before we hit record.
01:07:13 --> 01:07:15 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the left handed throwing thing is fun.
01:07:15 --> 01:07:20 [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's entertaining, but I think it's also just taking away from his development as a righty at this point.
01:07:20 --> 01:07:21 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's
01:07:22 --> 01:07:24 [SPEAKER_00]: somewhat more of just an entertainment factor.
01:07:24 --> 01:07:30 [SPEAKER_00]: I'd love to see him just lean into the right, you know, the right arm and see where that goes because that's a potential seventy-grade heater there.
01:07:30 --> 01:07:32 [SPEAKER_00]: And then we've seen the ability to spin the baseball.
01:07:32 --> 01:07:34 [SPEAKER_00]: He just doesn't have the confidence quite yet.
01:07:35 --> 01:07:38 [SPEAKER_00]: I think to do it as consistently, but you're seeing the stuff there.
01:07:38 --> 01:07:42 [SPEAKER_00]: And so I think between Sloan and Sanjay, you've got to be really excited so far.
01:07:42 --> 01:07:43 [SPEAKER_00]: The results will come with Sanjay.
01:07:43 --> 01:07:50 [SPEAKER_00]: I think especially as you just focus is on the right arm, but I think the fact that Sloan was the other pick and he's looked as good as he's looked.
01:07:50 --> 01:07:52 [SPEAKER_00]: You've got two exciting arms on the way.
01:07:53 --> 01:08:01 [SPEAKER_02]: Last thing for me, Arm, we've seen Harry Ford this year tap into about as much powers we've ever seen him do as a pro and AAA.
01:08:01 --> 01:08:07 [SPEAKER_02]: How much of that is him hitting in the PCL and how much of that is Harry Ford taking that next step forward as a hitter?
01:08:08 --> 01:08:14 [SPEAKER_00]: It's funny, I would actually say more taking the step forward and it's so tough when you have that environment out there.
01:08:14 --> 01:08:19 [SPEAKER_00]: But if he was still hitting the same way he was last year, I would say,
01:08:20 --> 01:08:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Ooh, okay, this might just be the change of environment.
01:08:22 --> 01:08:29 [SPEAKER_00]: And I say that because in the past, he very much was, okay, I'm not going to hit balls one, ten consistently.
01:08:29 --> 01:08:33 [SPEAKER_00]: So I need to pull the ball in the air and I need to have some loft in my swing.
01:08:33 --> 01:08:34 [SPEAKER_00]: And that created some miss at the top.
01:08:35 --> 01:08:37 [SPEAKER_00]: He would swing and miss on four seniors at the top of Bunch.
01:08:37 --> 01:08:40 [SPEAKER_00]: But he had a thirty-seven percent ground ball rate last year because he was trying to elevate.
01:08:41 --> 01:08:43 [SPEAKER_00]: But he's still only hit seven home runs anyways.
01:08:43 --> 01:08:45 [SPEAKER_00]: So I felt like that swing was
01:08:46 --> 01:08:51 [SPEAKER_00]: geared for lift, but not even really in the right way, and it was resulting in some whiff at the top of the zone.
01:08:51 --> 01:08:59 [SPEAKER_00]: This year he made some adjustments to be, I think, a little bit flatter through the zone, which can be okay to a certain point I think it can actually be helpful, especially when you're short or lever guy like Ford.
01:08:59 --> 01:09:03 [SPEAKER_00]: And you're seeing the power shine through anyways, because it's actually hitting the ball harder.
01:09:04 --> 01:09:05 [SPEAKER_00]: The EVs are up this year.
01:09:06 --> 01:09:10 [SPEAKER_00]: The contact rates are up, and he's covering four seamers at the top better than he ever has.
01:09:10 --> 01:09:12 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think it really was a matter of, okay,
01:09:13 --> 01:09:17 [SPEAKER_00]: You don't need to sell out for a loft to try to slug more than your frame would imply.
01:09:18 --> 01:09:20 [SPEAKER_00]: Just get your best swing off as consistently as possible.
01:09:21 --> 01:09:23 [SPEAKER_00]: And you're going to end up hitting home runs on accident.
01:09:24 --> 01:09:25 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's what we're seeing.
01:09:25 --> 01:09:27 [SPEAKER_00]: He's pulling line drives that are leaving the yard here.
01:09:28 --> 01:09:30 [SPEAKER_00]: But now you're seeing him use the whole field more effectively.
01:09:30 --> 01:09:34 [SPEAKER_00]: You're seeing him just get to the top more and cover all different pitch types more effectively.
01:09:34 --> 01:09:39 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think you're just seeing a much more well rounded hitter, which you make more consistent contact.
01:09:40 --> 01:09:41 [SPEAKER_00]: And it's a little bit harder.
01:09:41 --> 01:09:42 [SPEAKER_00]: You're going to hit more home runs anyways.
01:09:43 --> 01:09:49 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's what he's leaning into here and regardless of environment, it's been a tangible improvement from him.
01:09:50 --> 01:09:51 [SPEAKER_01]: It's good stuff.
01:09:52 --> 01:10:17 [SPEAKER_01]: arm as always you do this as well as anybody and we don't just say that because you're a friend of ours but your stuff is awesome for anybody who doesn't already know which you should if you don't already to this point but we'll give it a plug again go listen to the call up go listen to the just baseball show go check out just baseball dot com arm in the whole staff over with our friends it just baseball doing awesome awesome stuff so thanks for hopping arm arm thanks for hopping on arm there we go and um... can't wait to see you in a minute
01:10:17 --> 01:10:18 [SPEAKER_00]: I can't wait as well.
01:10:18 --> 01:10:19 [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you guys for having me.
01:10:19 --> 01:10:44 [SPEAKER_00]: Of course you guys are doing as good of a job as anybody cover in the Mariners and we're just talking about I'm rooting so hard for a Mariners playoff appearance a little run for you guys because it's just been so fun to watch little you guys keep me up to date with the Mariners as well as is anybody so I feel like I'm tapped in on the team by just following your guys as socials and tuning in every time so I always appreciate you guys having me on and hopefully we'll be talking about some deadline moves
01:10:44 --> 01:10:47 [SPEAKER_00]: So even if it means some prospects going the other way, I think that's a necessary evil.
01:10:48 --> 01:10:49 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's keep our fingers crossed.
01:11:07 --> 01:11:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Hope you guys enjoyed the interview.
01:11:08 --> 01:11:13 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, draft is now just five days away from the time you're listening to this.
01:11:13 --> 01:11:14 [SPEAKER_01]: Four, five, give or take.
01:11:15 --> 01:11:15 [SPEAKER_01]: And we can't wait.
01:11:16 --> 01:11:17 [SPEAKER_01]: So shout out arm.
01:11:18 --> 01:11:21 [SPEAKER_01]: That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Lair podcast.
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01:12:13 --> 01:12:13 [SPEAKER_01]: That's TJ.
01:12:13 --> 01:12:14 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Lyle.
01:12:14 --> 01:12:16 [SPEAKER_01]: As always, thank you guys for tuning in.
01:12:16 --> 01:12:17 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll talk to you soon.