Lyle and TJ jump into the mailbag answering a range of offseason questions, whether or not they picked the best pitcher in the 2024 draft, potential reliever options, and more (16:08).
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00:00 --> 00:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to Episode 319 of the Marine Lair podcast.
00:03 --> 00:08 [SPEAKER_00]: It's a mailback episode so we'll open it up and answer your guys' bestless near questions.
00:09 --> 00:12 [SPEAKER_01]: You guys, reminder, just make sure you're staying on top of all of our stuff.
00:12 --> 00:16 [SPEAKER_01]: If you want to do that, everything's over at our website, marinelayerpod.com.
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00:52 --> 01:05 [SPEAKER_00]: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Lair podcast part of the just baseball podcast network recording here on Thursday evening October 30th Happy Halloween to all of you as you're listening to this on Friday.
01:05 --> 01:07 [SPEAKER_00]: What do you dress him up as?
01:09 --> 01:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Aaron Judge Christian the Alex.
01:11 --> 01:11 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
01:12 --> 01:14 [SPEAKER_01]: Do you have a jersey to back it up?
01:14 --> 01:19 [SPEAKER_01]: If I did, it would basically be an entire costume since I get told I look like those two guys all the time.
01:20 --> 01:25 [SPEAKER_00]: Hey, just need some baseball pants and you need a Brewers jersey.
01:25 --> 01:26 [SPEAKER_01]: Or you actually dressing up?
01:27 --> 01:30 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I have my costumes, like sitting over here to the left.
01:30 --> 01:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Don't guess what I mean.
01:32 --> 01:32 [SPEAKER_00]: What is it?
01:33 --> 01:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to be a Star Wars character, which one do you think I'm going to be?
01:38 --> 01:46 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's going to have to be one that doesn't require a ton of effort and get by costume.
01:47 --> 01:51 [SPEAKER_01]: Even still, I'm guessing you didn't go all out and spend thousands of dollars on a costume.
01:51 --> 01:53 [SPEAKER_01]: So I'm guessing you don't have some crazy Mandalorian costume.
01:54 --> 01:56 [SPEAKER_00]: No, it's like a $30 costume.
01:57 --> 01:58 [SPEAKER_00]: Is it 3PO?
01:59 --> 01:59 [SPEAKER_00]: No.
02:00 --> 02:00 [SPEAKER_00]: No.
02:00 --> 02:01 [SPEAKER_00]: More fun than 3PO.
02:01 --> 02:03 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, Han Solo.
02:03 --> 02:05 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to be Anakin.
02:06 --> 02:18 [SPEAKER_00]: That's not fun and it's fun and it gets an asshole so what he's objectively the most dynamic dynamic person yeah, but he's an asshole
02:19 --> 02:20 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I was about to be an asshole.
02:20 --> 02:24 [SPEAKER_00]: I was worried my lightsaber wasn't going to get here in time, but it literally arrived this afternoon.
02:24 --> 02:26 [SPEAKER_00]: So, thank goodness.
02:27 --> 02:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Wow.
02:28 --> 02:32 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so that's our brief two-minute synopsis on Halloween here at the Marine Lair podcast.
02:32 --> 02:34 [SPEAKER_00]: We're heavy Halloween celebrators.
02:34 --> 02:40 [SPEAKER_00]: So, clearly, we're really dressed up right now right now for all of you to watch.
02:40 --> 02:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Mostly bantering about Halloween because there's been almost nothing for the Mariners come out this week.
02:49 --> 02:59 [SPEAKER_00]: Unless there's two storylines that are honestly getting blown out of proportion, which one would you like to talk about first?
03:01 --> 03:05 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, is one of them fan graphs giving Dan Wilson an F for his bullpen decisions?
03:06 --> 03:07 [SPEAKER_01]: That was not one of them.
03:07 --> 03:09 [SPEAKER_00]: If you would like to include that, we can make it three.
03:10 --> 03:12 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it is like we said people.
03:12 --> 03:17 [SPEAKER_01]: Remember how we talked about just a few episodes ago that the man doesn't need an in-game strategist?
03:17 --> 03:19 [SPEAKER_01]: Fangraph seems to think the same thing.
03:20 --> 03:22 [SPEAKER_01]: He got an F for his bullpen decisions.
03:23 --> 03:24 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, this is fangraphs.
03:24 --> 03:25 [SPEAKER_01]: This ain't us.
03:25 --> 03:28 [SPEAKER_01]: This ain't Mariners fans on a Reddit chat.
03:29 --> 03:33 [SPEAKER_01]: This is a very objective, analytically driven baseball site saying that.
03:33 --> 03:44 [SPEAKER_00]: So, and that article, I learned a lot, I learned a lot more things about bullpen decisions than I thought I knew.
03:44 --> 03:45 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm serious.
03:46 --> 03:46 [SPEAKER_00]: I was I was learning.
03:46 --> 03:48 [SPEAKER_00]: I was like, oh, that was a negative.
03:49 --> 03:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Hmm.
03:50 --> 03:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Wasn't even thinking about it.
03:54 --> 03:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
03:54 --> 03:57 [SPEAKER_00]: So I guess you weren't, I'm gonna guess you weren't the only one not thinking about it.
03:58 --> 03:59 [SPEAKER_00]: That's that's probably safe.
04:00 --> 04:04 [SPEAKER_00]: I do think before we get into this mailback, we need to address this Josh Taylor comment.
04:04 --> 04:09 [SPEAKER_00]: We should have done it on Wednesday's episode, but I said in quote to Lala as we were before we were taping that episode.
04:09 --> 04:10 [SPEAKER_00]: I said,
04:10 --> 04:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, that's not a big deal.
04:12 --> 04:14 [SPEAKER_00]: There we finished recording and I opened my phone.
04:15 --> 04:22 [SPEAKER_00]: And we had six different DMs within the last hour, asking, what does this comment mean?
04:23 --> 04:33 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, by the end, we got what 20 plus DMs, couple of who are personal accounts, a lot to the podcast accounts, everybody be like, is he gone?
04:34 --> 04:40 [SPEAKER_00]: So let's address it, since I for some reason didn't think it was a big enough story to address on Wednesday's podcast.
04:41 --> 04:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Lyle is Josh Naylor leaving a comment like that on Cowrow's post, a good thing or a bad thing.
04:50 --> 05:02 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not anything, it's nothing, Josh Naylor has it made its decision before free agents is even started, he hasn't decided already, you know what, I'm out, I'm leaving Seattle.
05:03 --> 05:14 [SPEAKER_01]: For what we're going to guess he doesn't know what the Mariners best and final offer will be he doesn't know what other teams across the league are going to offer He doesn't probably even know all the teams that are interested in them yet.
05:15 --> 05:16 [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's a nothing burger.
05:16 --> 05:17 [SPEAKER_01]: It's fine.
05:17 --> 05:26 [SPEAKER_01]: I get it worth that point of the off season where it's really early and there's So little news to hang on to but I wouldn't get wrapped up in a comment on cow rallies in the Graham
05:27 --> 05:31 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we've been doing this for almost three years now.
05:31 --> 05:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think I've ever seen a comment get that much traction.
05:35 --> 05:36 [SPEAKER_00]: That much.
05:36 --> 05:38 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we've seen people be celebrated.
05:38 --> 05:40 [SPEAKER_00]: We've seen people get canceled.
05:40 --> 05:43 [SPEAKER_00]: I've never seen anything like that, truly.
05:44 --> 05:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Do we think Josh knows he's talking with people?
05:47 --> 05:49 [SPEAKER_01]: He's a smart guy, I bet you he knows.
05:50 --> 05:52 [SPEAKER_01]: I bet you he knew exactly what he was doing with that.
05:53 --> 05:58 [SPEAKER_01]: Whether he has full intention to reassign what the mariners are not, I bet you he knew exactly what he was doing.
05:59 --> 06:17 [SPEAKER_00]: My take on it is he can't show his hands that he's like on his hand to the Mariners that he's on his hands and he's wanting to come back to Seattle because that's bad negotiating 101 that's how you end up with like he comes to the Mariners and says oh I really want to sign here and the Mariners like great we'll sign you for a three-year deal for $30 million.
06:17 --> 06:20 [SPEAKER_00]: So I don't think Josh nearly wants to sign a three-year deal for $30 million.
06:20 --> 06:22 [SPEAKER_00]: So
06:22 --> 06:23 [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to play hard to get.
06:24 --> 06:30 [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to make the Mariners pay him a real amount, especially if other teams are going to come to the table and want to pay him a real amount.
06:30 --> 06:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Can't just say, I'll see him pure in next year, Cal.
06:35 --> 06:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Could be his agent too, getting in as he are saying, hey,
06:38 --> 06:42 [SPEAKER_01]: Just think of some ways to balance out everything you've said the last two months.
06:43 --> 06:51 [SPEAKER_01]: From everything you talked about with how much you love the fans, how much you love the city, how much you love the ballpark, ballpark, how easy you think it is to hit in this ballpark.
06:52 --> 06:53 [SPEAKER_01]: Just balance it out a little.
06:54 --> 06:56 [SPEAKER_01]: Don't play your hand like you said.
06:56 --> 06:58 [SPEAKER_01]: You gotta keep it a little bit neutral right now.
06:59 --> 06:59 [SPEAKER_01]: You're a free agent.
07:00 --> 07:02 [SPEAKER_00]: So do we think he's gonna come out and say, you know what?
07:02 --> 07:04 [SPEAKER_00]: I actually hate coffee.
07:05 --> 07:06 [SPEAKER_01]: That would be funny.
07:07 --> 07:14 [SPEAKER_01]: And then we'd know, you know, I might have said that I don't get excited about anything.
07:14 --> 07:18 [SPEAKER_01]: Whatever that Mariners social media thing was that they did with them is like, yeah, I don't have a favorite anything.
07:19 --> 07:27 [SPEAKER_01]: I just don't, it's like, I might not, maybe Josh Nailer will come out now, do his own social posts, get into the content world that's off season, be like, well,
07:28 --> 07:33 [SPEAKER_01]: I might not have anything that's my favorite, but let me list some things that are my least favorite.
07:34 --> 07:43 [SPEAKER_01]: Coffee, seafood, rain, and... Oh and humpy, yeah, those are my Mount Rushmore or least favorite things.
07:43 --> 07:46 [SPEAKER_01]: Josh Nealer out of Seattle!
07:49 --> 07:52 [SPEAKER_00]: The comment itself, the wording he used was incredibly weird.
07:52 --> 08:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it was probably the vaguest, most like complex, situational comment he could have left.
08:02 --> 08:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, seriously.
08:04 --> 08:18 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean it was you can go check out our social post on it where I was I was trying to break down the verbiage of it I mean he believes it completely like up in the air whether this is is it a immediate past tense Pit tense is it permanent past tense is it temporary past tense?
08:19 --> 08:19 [SPEAKER_00]: What what is it?
08:20 --> 08:22 [SPEAKER_00]: What does he mean is it not past tense at all?
08:25 --> 08:26 [SPEAKER_00]: No one knows
08:26 --> 08:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Just Josh Naylor, parent.
08:28 --> 08:29 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's a free agent.
08:30 --> 08:31 [SPEAKER_00]: He needs to play the process out.
08:31 --> 08:43 [SPEAKER_00]: So, of course, he's not going to just put his cards down on the table before the off season officially starts, which it could as soon as Friday night with the Blue Jay's win, which case.
08:43 --> 08:45 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, no, I'm on this episode.
08:45 --> 08:52 [SPEAKER_00]: It might not be the happiest of campers in the world, but we can address that problem we get there because that series is Is not over speaking of that series though.
08:52 --> 08:56 [SPEAKER_00]: We do have a male bad question about this But I do want to touch on it briefly here at the beginning.
08:57 --> 08:59 [SPEAKER_00]: Shouldn't we just save most of it?
08:59 --> 08:59 [SPEAKER_00]: You want to save it?
08:59 --> 09:00 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, we can say it.
09:00 --> 09:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, but let's let's it is going to come out of the world series and we will get to the mailback question on it.
09:05 --> 09:15 [SPEAKER_01]: We will we will save all of our analysis for it, but if you want to just present the topic, I will say in the last 24 hours since trade savages dominant game five start in the world series.
09:16 --> 09:25 [SPEAKER_01]: There's been a lot of Mariners fans out there talking about Jorangelow versus Tray Savage, which for those who don't remember, the Mariners picked 15th in the draft in 24.
09:25 --> 09:28 [SPEAKER_01]: You savage fell down boards, because there was some medical concerns.
09:29 --> 09:31 [SPEAKER_01]: The Mariners still took Jorangelow.
09:31 --> 09:32 [SPEAKER_01]: You savage win 20.
09:33 --> 09:35 [SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of discourse on that now in the last 24 hours.
09:36 --> 09:38 [SPEAKER_01]: So I'll leave it at that, and we will break it down much more in the mailbag.
09:39 --> 09:42 [SPEAKER_01]: Can I address one Josh and Taylor thing before we get to the mailbag?
09:42 --> 09:42 [SPEAKER_01]: No.
09:42 --> 09:42 [SPEAKER_01]: Sure.
09:44 --> 09:46 [SPEAKER_01]: They don't resign Josh and Taylor, they're fucked.
09:46 --> 09:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Hmm.
09:47 --> 09:49 [SPEAKER_01]: I was thinking about this more and more.
09:49 --> 09:52 [SPEAKER_01]: There are no options for the Mariners if they don't re-sign Josh Nailer.
09:53 --> 09:56 [SPEAKER_01]: If you don't re-sign him, the options become Petalonzo Boris guy, so forget it.
09:56 --> 09:57 [SPEAKER_01]: Not coming here.
09:57 --> 09:59 [SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about it plenty on this podcast.
09:59 --> 10:01 [SPEAKER_01]: The Scott Boris Mariners relationship is not good.
10:02 --> 10:04 [SPEAKER_01]: There hasn't been a Boris client that signed here in 25 years, roughly.
10:06 --> 10:10 [SPEAKER_01]: There's Cody Bellinger, who most of his value comes from being an outfielder nowadays.
10:11 --> 10:13 [SPEAKER_01]: Also Boris guy, so probably not.
10:14 --> 10:19 [SPEAKER_01]: and the rest of the guys that are gonna be free agent first basement are basically hanging on by a thread to their careers.
10:19 --> 10:23 [SPEAKER_01]: They're 39, 40, just about done, just in Turner.
10:23 --> 10:26 [SPEAKER_01]: You've got Paul Goldschmidt, you've got Carlos Santana.
10:27 --> 10:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Donovan's a lot of technically a free agent.
10:30 --> 10:30 [SPEAKER_01]: What about Routy?
10:31 --> 10:33 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, he's not quite 40, but him too.
10:34 --> 10:35 [SPEAKER_01]: And you look internally for the Mariners.
10:35 --> 10:37 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm thinking about this today.
10:37 --> 10:40 [SPEAKER_01]: And I'm like, what is their best internal option
10:42 --> 10:45 [SPEAKER_01]: throw Luke Rayleigh aside, which is not a good internal option for first base.
10:47 --> 10:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Hymn aside, who could be coming up the pipeline that could help?
10:50 --> 11:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Your best option is trying to have Michael O'Royo learn first base, and I say that that's not in a good way, Michael O'Royo's five-nine, like he shouldn't be playing first base.
11:01 --> 11:02 [SPEAKER_00]: He might be Donovan Solano.
11:04 --> 11:04 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
11:04 --> 11:10 [SPEAKER_01]: So, point being, we'll have plenty of off-season time to talk about Josh Nailor, or, or, or.
11:11 --> 11:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Last.
11:12 --> 11:16 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, except LAS is minimum, I'm going to spend another four to five months down in the minor league.
11:16 --> 11:19 [SPEAKER_01]: So, in terms of a plan for 2026, that ain't it.
11:20 --> 11:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe that's his position long term, this is what I mean.
11:23 --> 11:26 [SPEAKER_01]: And honestly, Michael Royale needs more time, too.
11:27 --> 11:29 [SPEAKER_01]: He didn't like the world on fire and double-A.
11:29 --> 11:32 [SPEAKER_01]: He can really hit, but he needs more development time, and he's really young.
11:32 --> 11:35 [SPEAKER_01]: So, point being, Maris don't sign Josh Nailer, they're fucked.
11:35 --> 11:37 [SPEAKER_01]: And I bet you as Agent knows that, too.
11:37 --> 11:41 [SPEAKER_01]: And he's going to try and drive up the price, because he knows the Mariners don't have
11:42 --> 11:51 [SPEAKER_01]: Ryan Bliss, I mean, I just said Michael Arroyo can't play first base, Ryan Bliss, Ryan shorter than Arroyo.
11:52 --> 11:53 [SPEAKER_00]: I know.
11:55 --> 11:58 [SPEAKER_00]: They're, and they're also, the thing about this is there is no other player.
11:58 --> 12:03 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the meritors are gonna spend the amount of money they would spend on Josh Nailer on an AAV basis.
12:04 --> 12:09 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, if they don't, if they don't spend that money on him, it's not getting spent, I don't think.
12:09 --> 12:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Not on players outside of the organization.
12:11 --> 12:14 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, I mean, I think it might be.
12:16 --> 12:16 [SPEAKER_00]: I hope so.
12:17 --> 12:18 [SPEAKER_01]: I think it might be.
12:18 --> 12:19 [SPEAKER_00]: Most likely though.
12:19 --> 12:20 [SPEAKER_01]: Now let's see, there's a spin zone.
12:21 --> 12:25 [SPEAKER_01]: What if Josh Nailer's already been told by the meritors?
12:25 --> 12:28 [SPEAKER_01]: Sorry to do it, but all your funds are being spent on Kyle Tucker.
12:30 --> 12:31 [SPEAKER_00]: I would make that set.
12:31 --> 12:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I think I'd be okay with that.
12:33 --> 12:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I'd be okay with it.
12:35 --> 12:37 [SPEAKER_00]: But, yes.
12:37 --> 12:40 [SPEAKER_00]: In a serious note, would you be okay with Jorge Planke playing first base?
12:41 --> 12:42 [SPEAKER_00]: He'd be cheaper?
12:44 --> 13:13 [SPEAKER_01]: not really and and that's not meant to say I don't want to pay plug I'm not a hang on hang on I want Jorge Polanco back that's not what I'm saying okay I don't want Jorge Polanco back to be your permanent solution at first base I want Jorge Polanco back to do what he knows how to do and I know he spent some time practicing some first base this year I don't care remember the last time they tried to have Jorge Polanco come back in and learn a new
13:14 --> 13:20 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, but say Josh Nailer signs of the Met's after Peter Lanzo walks, what do you do?
13:20 --> 13:22 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
13:22 --> 13:26 [SPEAKER_01]: Like, do you maybe that are a production at first?
13:26 --> 13:29 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, maybe that's what you have to do, but this is my point.
13:30 --> 13:41 [SPEAKER_01]: Get Josh Nailer back and then you can worry about Polo, have him come back in, have him be your D-H for the most part, and he can mix in its second base again, too, if you need him, too.
13:41 --> 13:44 [SPEAKER_01]: But don't fuck around with this, just sign Nailer.
13:47 --> 13:52 [SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't sound like right now they're going to fuck around with it, but I guess the results are going to tell us that.
13:52 --> 14:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I just hope, I hope they should, I hope they offer him $90 million like the Jim boat in production of four years for $90 million off for him that and make him tell you no.
14:03 --> 14:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Like make him say no to that.
14:05 --> 14:05 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a lot of money.
14:06 --> 14:08 [SPEAKER_00]: That's more money per year than Christian Walker got.
14:08 --> 14:09 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
14:09 --> 14:10 [SPEAKER_00]: and that they can turn that down.
14:11 --> 14:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, Nailer's agent is probably going to argue for exactly that, because Nailer had a better walkier.
14:15 --> 14:16 [SPEAKER_01]: He's younger.
14:16 --> 14:18 [SPEAKER_01]: He's got more.
14:18 --> 14:23 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's a lot of reasons Nailer's agent can argue that Nailer should be getting more than Christian Walker.
14:24 --> 14:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I certainly don't want to be hearing anything close to the lines of what's coming out of Detroit right now that the tiger's last offer to tarick scooble was Get this less money than that contract.
14:35 --> 14:39 [SPEAKER_00]: I just offered to just nail her So I don't want to hear that.
14:40 --> 14:45 [SPEAKER_01]: Let me let me look right into the camera and say this to any person that might be listening
14:47 --> 14:51 [SPEAKER_01]: Do not ever tell me the Dodgers are ruining baseball.
14:52 --> 14:53 [SPEAKER_01]: Don't ever tell me that.
14:53 --> 14:55 [SPEAKER_01]: Don't ever tell me that.
14:55 --> 15:04 [SPEAKER_01]: You've got the Detroit Tigers offering the best picture on the planet less than $20 million a year for four.
15:04 --> 15:05 [SPEAKER_01]: years.
15:05 --> 15:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Stop.
15:06 --> 15:10 [SPEAKER_01]: It's teams like that that are ruining baseball.
15:10 --> 15:16 [SPEAKER_01]: If teams like that actually invested the necessary money to keep their homegrown stars in town, guess what?
15:16 --> 15:23 [SPEAKER_01]: The Dodgers wouldn't have all these guys because when teams, when players that are superstars are left with no other options, where are they going to go?
15:24 --> 15:26 [SPEAKER_01]: The teams that'll pay them what they're worth.
15:26 --> 15:28 [SPEAKER_01]: The Dodgers are not ruining baseball.
15:28 --> 15:29 [SPEAKER_01]: The Pirates are ruining baseball.
15:30 --> 15:33 [SPEAKER_01]: The A is a
15:33 --> 15:34 [SPEAKER_01]: If the tigers are serious, what does that offer?
15:34 --> 15:35 [SPEAKER_01]: Are they ruining baseball?
15:36 --> 15:36 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not the Dodgers.
15:38 --> 15:40 [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's funny you put the Rockies in there.
15:40 --> 15:42 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think the Rockies are ruining baseball.
15:42 --> 15:43 [SPEAKER_00]: I just think they're awful.
15:44 --> 15:44 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean they to be fair.
15:44 --> 15:45 [SPEAKER_01]: They've spent some money.
15:45 --> 15:46 [SPEAKER_01]: They just do a terror.
15:46 --> 15:48 [SPEAKER_00]: They're just really bad at spending money.
15:49 --> 15:49 [SPEAKER_01]: All right.
15:49 --> 15:50 [SPEAKER_01]: The pirates.
15:50 --> 15:50 [SPEAKER_01]: How did I leave them out?
15:51 --> 15:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
15:51 --> 15:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
15:51 --> 15:51 [SPEAKER_00]: The pirates.
15:52 --> 15:55 [SPEAKER_00]: The pirates are the pioneer example of all of that.
15:55 --> 15:58 [SPEAKER_00]: But, Terek needs somewhere to play.
15:59 --> 16:00 [SPEAKER_00]: I have an idea.
16:00 --> 16:01 [SPEAKER_00]: I did too.
16:01 --> 16:02 [SPEAKER_01]: Sadly, that's not a male bad question.
16:02 --> 16:03 [SPEAKER_01]: It could be in future weeks.
16:04 --> 16:05 [SPEAKER_00]: It could be.
16:05 --> 16:05 [SPEAKER_00]: It was last week.
16:06 --> 16:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
16:07 --> 16:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we had a good talk about it.
16:09 --> 16:10 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's get to the mailbag.
16:10 --> 16:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Plenty of good questions on here.
16:11 --> 16:14 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to remind all of you as we get into this mailbag.
16:14 --> 16:18 [SPEAKER_00]: If you'd like priority for mailbag questions, the place to go is our Patreon.
16:18 --> 16:21 [SPEAKER_00]: MarineLair of Patreon.com slash MarineLair pod.
16:21 --> 16:23 [SPEAKER_00]: You can go check it out there.
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16:38 --> 16:41 [SPEAKER_00]: So with that, we'll start off on Patreon with Josh.
16:41 --> 16:46 [SPEAKER_00]: And Josh's question is, what are some bopin arms the Mariners should target this off season?
16:49 --> 16:50 [SPEAKER_00]: You can go first on this one.
16:51 --> 16:53 [SPEAKER_00]: There's one like runaway number one for this.
16:55 --> 16:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Do you agree?
16:57 --> 16:59 [SPEAKER_00]: I think we're going to be in the same boat with us.
17:00 --> 17:04 [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm thinking about everything the Mariners think of in the past.
17:04 --> 17:10 [SPEAKER_00]: Don't want to spend money, don't want to spend long-term on bullpen, because they believe so much in their development.
17:10 --> 17:16 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think they need to at least add one bullpen arm from the outside this year, and preferably one high end bullpen arm.
17:17 --> 17:18 [SPEAKER_00]: That guy's Devon Williams.
17:19 --> 17:26 [SPEAKER_00]: Devon Williams right now, according to Spotrack,
17:26 --> 17:34 [SPEAKER_00]: One year ago, if you were to give that guy a contract, it would have started with a two, $20 million a year, probably, for Devon Williams.
17:35 --> 17:37 [SPEAKER_00]: But he wants the Bronx, he had an era in your five.
17:38 --> 17:41 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that's reflective of who he is as a pitcher.
17:41 --> 17:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Before that year, this dude had an sub two era, the previous three years combined.
17:49 --> 18:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Sub two with nasty strikeout stuff mid 30% strikeout rate his airbender change it was one of the best pitches in baseball and he is right now in need of a one-year deal to go prove himself and get back out on the open market hopefully before the lockout happens and land a long-term extension with somebody
18:11 --> 18:13 [SPEAKER_00]: What better place to do that than Seattle?
18:13 --> 18:19 [SPEAKER_00]: He'll tell you what, after that season in New York, no one's handing him a five-year deal for $80 to $100 million.
18:20 --> 18:21 [SPEAKER_00]: That's not happening.
18:22 --> 18:27 [SPEAKER_01]: I would sign Devon Williams for six million bucks and run away not even thinking twice about it.
18:28 --> 18:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Even with Williams, E.R.A.
18:29 --> 18:35 [SPEAKER_01]: this year, everything about his season screams that he got unlucky and he's still as ridiculous stuff.
18:36 --> 18:37 [SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned the E.R.A.
18:37 --> 18:41 [SPEAKER_01]: was near five.
18:41 --> 18:43 [SPEAKER_01]: his FIP was 268.
18:44 --> 18:49 [SPEAKER_01]: By all accounts, all the expected stats say, Devon Williams should have had another border line of lead season.
18:50 --> 18:51 [SPEAKER_01]: Is that not enough?
18:51 --> 18:52 [SPEAKER_01]: You want to look at his actual peripherals?
18:52 --> 18:53 [SPEAKER_01]: You want to look at his savompage?
18:54 --> 18:56 [SPEAKER_01]: Strike out rate, 97%ile.
18:57 --> 18:59 [SPEAKER_01]: Top 3% of the league, again, this year.
19:00 --> 19:02 [SPEAKER_01]: With rate, chase rate, top 3% of the league.
19:03 --> 19:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Yet again, change up run value, actually higher in 2025 than it was in 2024.
19:09 --> 19:11 [SPEAKER_01]: What do I think about Devon Williams?
19:11 --> 19:13 [SPEAKER_01]: I think you had a couple of blow up outings.
19:13 --> 19:15 [SPEAKER_01]: I think he did not like pitching in the Bronx.
19:16 --> 19:18 [SPEAKER_01]: I think not everybody's fit to pitch in New York.
19:18 --> 19:21 [SPEAKER_01]: And I think he's going to look for a one-year deal to reset his market.
19:22 --> 19:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Where would you rather go, buddy?
19:24 --> 19:27 [SPEAKER_01]: Pitchers Park, team that was the third,
19:27 --> 19:47 [SPEAKER_01]: team that was the third from last team to be eliminated in all a baseball this year has a young core already has a good bullpen you're not expected to carry the entire weight load like you probably were too much so in New York when they expected you to come in and be the guy I couldn't think of a better situation for Devon Williams and I couldn't think of a better situation for the Mariners.
19:47 --> 19:51 [SPEAKER_01]: I would get this guy in a literal heartbeat and not think twice about it.
19:51 --> 19:55 [SPEAKER_01]: If I were the Mariners, honestly, before we even sign Josh Nailer, because that's going to take some time.
19:55 --> 19:57 [SPEAKER_01]: The second, the offseason starts.
19:58 --> 20:04 [SPEAKER_01]: I would be banging the drum to get Devon Williams signed, sealed, delivered, and into the city of Seattle.
20:04 --> 20:07 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I would pay him more money than that projection.
20:07 --> 20:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I'd pay him 8 million if he wants it.
20:09 --> 20:09 [SPEAKER_00]: I'll get him here.
20:09 --> 20:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Just think of how this fits in the Mariners bullpen.
20:12 --> 20:18 [SPEAKER_00]: Your leverage guys right now, your top leverage guys are fastball slider with Muno's throwing a sinker.
20:18 --> 20:19 [SPEAKER_00]: This guy's going to throw a changeup.
20:19 --> 20:21 [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be a different look.
20:21 --> 20:29 [SPEAKER_00]: One of the big things about the bullpen management in the playoffs is that the Mariners offered up the same look to line up too many times.
20:30 --> 20:35 [SPEAKER_00]: When you get into their leverage guys, what do their top three right-handed leverage arms all throw?
20:37 --> 20:38 [SPEAKER_01]: They all throw fastball slider.
20:39 --> 20:39 [SPEAKER_00]: Great.
20:40 --> 20:44 [SPEAKER_00]: And when you see that five times in a series, it gets a little repetitive.
20:45 --> 20:50 [SPEAKER_00]: The difference is Devon Williams is going to throw his change up, which is one of the best pitches in baseball about 60% of the time.
20:51 --> 20:53 [SPEAKER_00]: It works out so unbelievably well.
20:54 --> 21:04 [SPEAKER_00]: And it is just another like one A guy that you can use to load manage Andre's menu a little bit because he does tend to wear down if you overuse him.
21:04 --> 21:07 [SPEAKER_00]: So use Devon Williams, too, manage that all with Matt Brech.
21:07 --> 21:16 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's the fourth total true leverage arm, true top tier guy that you can put back there to really go lock down the ninth inning.
21:17 --> 21:18 [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to win you games.
21:18 --> 21:25 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it could win you two to three extra games by just having Devon Williams in there and just not having to worry about it overall.
21:26 --> 21:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I know you couldn't get you're on Doron, but getting Devon Williams is a two thumbs up for me.
21:32 --> 21:33 [SPEAKER_00]: It's so easy of a decision.
21:33 --> 21:35 [SPEAKER_01]: the first move I'd make this offseason.
21:35 --> 21:36 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm serious.
21:36 --> 21:37 [SPEAKER_01]: Naylor's going to take some time.
21:38 --> 21:40 [SPEAKER_01]: I would not mess around with this at all.
21:40 --> 21:44 [SPEAKER_01]: I would sign Devon Williams the second free agency starts and not.
21:44 --> 21:46 [SPEAKER_01]: Let me throw a couple other names at you.
21:47 --> 21:48 [SPEAKER_01]: Ryan Hellsley.
21:49 --> 21:52 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'd take a flyer on Ryan Hellsley for sure.
21:52 --> 22:00 [SPEAKER_01]: I know he had, I know he didn't have a great year, but again, relievers are fickle, history suggests he's a really, really good to borderline elite reliever big stuff.
22:00 --> 22:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
22:02 --> 22:03 [SPEAKER_00]: He was really bad with the Mets.
22:03 --> 22:07 [SPEAKER_00]: He was really, really, really bad with the Mets.
22:08 --> 22:12 [SPEAKER_00]: There is still plenty to believe though that he's still really good because he still throws really hard and that's his bread and butter.
22:13 --> 22:20 [SPEAKER_00]: The thing I also really like doesn't give up any homers despite the fact he throws the top of a fastball that lives the top of the zone.
22:20 --> 22:23 [SPEAKER_00]: A plus for a reliever, that's how you get blown up, he doesn't do it.
22:25 --> 22:47 [SPEAKER_00]: his price will be more expensive though but like some of these next guys their price will all be i believe over ten million dollars in fact many of them might be over fifteen million dollars you think healthly is going to be more than devil lambs yeah uh... no i don't think healthly is gonna have to take a one-year deal i mean somebody might give devil Williams more especially if you look at the peripherals
22:50 --> 22:51 [SPEAKER_00]: We'll see how this plays out.
22:51 --> 22:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Spottrack doesn't seem to think.
22:53 --> 22:54 [SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't seem to think that.
22:55 --> 23:03 [SPEAKER_00]: They think Hellsley is going to get more money than Devin Williams, how about Robert Suarez?
23:04 --> 23:07 [SPEAKER_01]: So now you're getting into the real big fish.
23:09 --> 23:13 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if the Mariners would ever commit real dollars to a bullpen arm.
23:13 --> 23:17 [SPEAKER_01]: With Robert Suarez, this is one of those relievers where you're talking about $20 million a year.
23:18 --> 23:20 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's really good.
23:20 --> 23:20 [SPEAKER_01]: What do you want me to say?
23:20 --> 23:21 [SPEAKER_01]: He's an all star.
23:22 --> 23:25 [SPEAKER_01]: He was part of a Padre's bullpen that was elite this year, especially post deadline.
23:26 --> 23:31 [SPEAKER_01]: But look, if the Meredith had an unlimited budget, I'd say absolutely.
23:31 --> 23:34 [SPEAKER_01]: Promise, I think we all know how that goes.
23:34 --> 23:37 [SPEAKER_01]: So I might have to choose to allocate it elsewhere.
23:38 --> 23:41 [SPEAKER_00]: Not a big strikeout artist, and he's going to be 35 next year.
23:41 --> 23:44 [SPEAKER_00]: So like, if your paint, I can't
23:45 --> 23:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Let me make sure we're this correctly.
23:47 --> 23:52 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't feel like paying a 35-year-old reliever $20 million a year is the best strategy in the world.
23:53 --> 24:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, if his price comes down a little bit, I'd be interested, but not $20 million a year, and not if he's looking at multiple years, probably not.
24:00 --> 24:02 [SPEAKER_01]: Can I throw a nostalgic name out there?
24:02 --> 24:04 [SPEAKER_00]: I have an nostalgic name too.
24:04 --> 24:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's see if we're thinking of the like right person say person.
24:06 --> 24:09 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna guess we are, but I was gonna say what about an Eddie reunion?
24:09 --> 24:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, not who I was thinking of.
24:13 --> 24:15 [SPEAKER_00]: He's gonna be even more expensive than he was last time.
24:16 --> 24:17 [SPEAKER_00]: He's old as though now.
24:19 --> 24:30 [SPEAKER_00]: He's still going to get four years for 20 million a pop probably I mean he just put up another one ERA season so yeah, I would love a the Mariners wanted to pay Edwin Diaz I'd be totally okay with it I just got it.
24:30 --> 24:36 [SPEAKER_00]: He he is so much better now than he was when they traded him away and he was so good then
24:37 --> 24:41 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that paired with, I was always such an eddy fan.
24:41 --> 24:46 [SPEAKER_01]: I think he was my favorite mariner of that like 2016 to 2018 era.
24:46 --> 24:48 [SPEAKER_01]: I was just such a huge Edwin Diaz fan.
24:49 --> 24:54 [SPEAKER_00]: If some of you sort of forget Edwin Diaz right now is like a 50% strike out guy.
24:54 --> 24:57 [SPEAKER_00]: It's like coin flip weather, not he strikes the guy out at the plate.
24:57 --> 24:59 [SPEAKER_00]: Imagine how that got out of the back of your bullpen.
25:01 --> 25:04 [SPEAKER_00]: I would bump, I'd bump Mooney down to the eighth inning in a heartbeat.
25:04 --> 25:05 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
25:05 --> 25:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Or again, you can just not have one guy before it's to close all the time and just play matchups.
25:11 --> 25:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Imagine that.
25:12 --> 25:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Sounds good to me.
25:13 --> 25:15 [SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't matter what Edwin Diaz throws.
25:15 --> 25:16 [SPEAKER_00]: He's just gonna strike everyone out.
25:16 --> 25:19 [SPEAKER_00]: The nostalgic day my had was not nostalgic to the Mariners.
25:20 --> 25:22 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, I think I know where he might go with this, but let's hear it.
25:23 --> 25:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Ken Lee.
25:25 --> 25:27 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, also not where I was gonna go.
25:27 --> 25:28 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
25:28 --> 25:32 [SPEAKER_01]: You want that guy picking up, packing up, and leaving the team with five days ago in the year.
25:32 --> 25:34 [SPEAKER_01]: But that's the angels.
25:34 --> 25:35 [SPEAKER_01]: Can you blame him?
25:35 --> 25:41 [SPEAKER_01]: No, that haven't with the red socks.
25:42 --> 25:45 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he spent too much time with the angels and got some bad habits.
25:45 --> 25:49 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to say the culture of the Mariners will keep him in track.
25:49 --> 26:03 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm floating canly out there because he'd probably only get a one-year deal and he wouldn't be as expensive and he has posted every year even as he's aged because VLO isn't as good as it used to be but his cutter is still pretty effective.
26:03 --> 26:06 [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to get guys out and he's going to make a lot of appearances.
26:07 --> 26:15 [SPEAKER_01]: The nostalgic name I was gonna go with, it wasn't Kenley, and again, he's really aging, so we'll say he had a two six year A last year.
26:15 --> 26:21 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's still a good year, but I think there might be some internal stuff there that maybe the Mariners don't want to deal with.
26:21 --> 26:26 [SPEAKER_01]: I just, I don't know if he's supposed to be an all-world clubhouse guy, at least anymore.
26:27 --> 26:30 [SPEAKER_00]: So he's not at the top of my list, so I can't blame you.
26:30 --> 26:36 [SPEAKER_00]: But in terms of fits for how they play on the baseball field, that made me look.
26:36 --> 26:37 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, last one.
26:37 --> 27:02 [SPEAKER_01]: I know this is we've gone into a little deep on this topic here because we're thinking about nostalgic relievers You only made 15 or 16 outings with the mariners two years ago, but what they think about Luke weaver Oh Hmm, I mean now he wasn't really making appearances as a reliever with the mariners He was kind of a swing man and he didn't really break out until he left the mariners But now now he's a reliever.
27:03 --> 27:05 [SPEAKER_01]: He was he's been really good the last two years
27:05 --> 27:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Um, like what is his value?
27:08 --> 27:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Like how much is he worth?
27:10 --> 27:11 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, but he's going to be 32.
27:12 --> 27:15 [SPEAKER_01]: I can't imagine he's going to get Edwin Diaz Robert Suarez money.
27:15 --> 27:24 [SPEAKER_00]: 32 solid strike out to walk numbers gets a lot of chase does not get groundballs at all, which is something the Mariners really like with their relievers.
27:26 --> 27:29 [SPEAKER_00]: And maybe like it, I'd give him like a two year deal maybe.
27:30 --> 27:32 [SPEAKER_00]: It's like it's been good.
27:32 --> 27:33 [SPEAKER_00]: He's not as good as he was last year though.
27:33 --> 27:37 [SPEAKER_00]: I'll say this year, yeah, which hurts him in that department.
27:37 --> 27:39 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think that's interesting.
27:39 --> 27:46 [SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of names out there that they can go, but I think the Mariners need to start with Devon Williams and then worry about everyone else after that.
27:46 --> 27:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Cause they're starting Devon Williams, they can run back the rest of that bullpen.
27:49 --> 27:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
27:50 --> 27:53 [SPEAKER_01]: Also, I just looked, look, we were, Scott Boyz guys.
27:53 --> 27:54 [SPEAKER_00]: So nope, forget it.
27:54 --> 27:58 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, well, Scott Boyz guys were cheaper, I guess a little easier.
27:58 --> 28:02 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, I don't think worth it at anybody's sign here.
28:03 --> 28:09 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe there's clients only making $15 total million dollars, like in the manager's offer it, they'll sign.
28:10 --> 28:18 [SPEAKER_00]: All right, I mean, maybe we're we're talking about the
28:19 --> 28:19 [SPEAKER_00]: Fair enough.
28:20 --> 28:20 [SPEAKER_00]: All right.
28:20 --> 28:30 [SPEAKER_00]: Next question comes from Graham on Patreon and Graham's question is, can you see the Mariners taking a pun or I guess a stab at Kazuma Okamoto?
28:31 --> 28:31 [SPEAKER_00]: I said that right.
28:31 --> 28:32 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
28:32 --> 28:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, I did for for the Mariners next year.
28:35 --> 28:36 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
28:36 --> 28:37 [SPEAKER_01]: So this is an interesting name.
28:37 --> 28:40 [SPEAKER_01]: He's not the headline bat to be coming out of Japan this winter.
28:40 --> 28:43 [SPEAKER_01]: That's somebody will get you later in this mail bag.
28:43 --> 28:45 [SPEAKER_01]: Man he's flying under the radar.
28:45 --> 28:50 [SPEAKER_01]: He's really good you guys and truthfully he might be a safer bet than
28:50 --> 28:52 [SPEAKER_01]: the other guy will get to later coming over from Japan.
28:53 --> 28:54 [SPEAKER_01]: So who's Kazuma Okamoto?
28:55 --> 29:00 [SPEAKER_01]: If you're the Mariners and you don't resign Josh Naylor, this is probably where they're going to look to.
29:00 --> 29:06 [SPEAKER_01]: If I had to guess, because again, Belinger, Piedalonzo, probably not coming to Seattle, not a ton of other options.
29:07 --> 29:11 [SPEAKER_01]: He's coming over from Japan, and there's a lot to like about his profile.
29:11 --> 29:12 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you look at what he's done.
29:12 --> 29:15 [SPEAKER_01]: I'll give you his home runs by season over the last couple of years.
29:17 --> 29:19 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'll even go back to 2018.
29:19 --> 29:20 [SPEAKER_01]: I'll just read them out.
29:20 --> 29:27 [SPEAKER_01]: 33 31 31 39 30 41 27 and then this year Because he was banged up.
29:27 --> 29:29 [SPEAKER_01]: He only hit 15, but you pro-rate that.
29:29 --> 29:31 [SPEAKER_01]: He probably would have had another 30 home or season.
29:31 --> 29:45 [SPEAKER_01]: Has power Can really hit Draws some walks and the big thing with him is he's not a big strikeout guy in Japan and in Japan You have to keep your strikeout rate down
29:45 --> 29:53 [SPEAKER_01]: for at the very least the two of us, but I think a lot of evaluators to feel confident that you can come over to Major League Baseball and have a translate, and Okamoto doesn't strike out a lot.
29:54 --> 30:02 [SPEAKER_01]: So there is some part of his profile here that says, yeah, his game should translate to some extent.
30:02 --> 30:08 [SPEAKER_01]: So what I rather sign of over Josh Naylor know, because he's unproven, you don't know exactly what you're going to get, and there's going to be a bidding war for him.
30:09 --> 30:12 [SPEAKER_01]: But if Naylor were to go somewhere else, yeah, I'd look here.
30:14 --> 30:19 [SPEAKER_00]: So you can hit like he definitely can hit and the profile is a little bit more complete.
30:20 --> 30:30 [SPEAKER_00]: So the strikeouts, the walks like we're talking about those rates for this year, it was 11% for both of them, along with the 992 OPS and 70 games.
30:30 --> 30:32 [SPEAKER_00]: That sounds really good.
30:32 --> 30:38 [SPEAKER_00]: You're gonna have to lock some of that off when he comes to Major League Baseball because the pitching here is that much better.
30:38 --> 30:44 [SPEAKER_00]: And now let me address the concern with him.
30:44 --> 31:07 [SPEAKER_00]: uh... eric long and hang in a fan graphs don't into him and said once the pitch be gets to ninety four miles an hour his stats fall off a cliff so he does a lot of damage against an average and pb fastball which is between ninety nine ninety one miles an hour once he gets over ninety four he has a lot of trouble
31:07 --> 31:11 [SPEAKER_00]: If you want to look on the optimistic side of that, he doesn't since he doesn't see that much philosophy.
31:11 --> 31:13 [SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't get to practice much against it.
31:13 --> 31:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Therefore, comes over to Major League Baseball sees a thousand pitches over 95 miles an hour, or 94, that it's going to get a little bit better at it because he's going to get some practice.
31:24 --> 31:26 [SPEAKER_00]: Problem is, he's not really in the learning stage of his careers.
31:26 --> 31:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Going to be 30 years old next year.
31:29 --> 31:31 [SPEAKER_01]: In other words, he's not getting the show.
31:31 --> 31:32 [SPEAKER_01]: Hey, Roki's Saki contract.
31:32 --> 31:33 [SPEAKER_01]: You're going to have to pay him.
31:33 --> 31:37 [SPEAKER_01]: So you're going to have to pay him on the idea that he's going to come over and be productive.
31:37 --> 31:38 [SPEAKER_00]: Pay him how much.
31:38 --> 31:47 [SPEAKER_00]: If you're going to have to pay him 15 million dollars a year, that just doesn't feel like you're getting as much value as you are paying Josh Nailer 23.
31:50 --> 31:52 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, get Nailer's field done, please.
31:54 --> 32:00 [SPEAKER_00]: The projected contract form is about three to four years 15 to 17 million dollars.
32:02 --> 32:13 [SPEAKER_00]: If you have to, I guess, I'm just not totally comfortable with signing a 30-year-old first time vaguely girl making that much money because it could blow up in your face.
32:13 --> 32:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
32:13 --> 32:14 [SPEAKER_00]: Could be Masataki Oshita.
32:15 --> 32:26 [SPEAKER_00]: Could be like, say a Suzuki, for example, crushed in the MPB way better numbers than Okamoto had and he's been really, he's been good in Chicago and got paid a lot more money.
32:26 --> 32:28 [SPEAKER_00]: He was also younger when he came over.
32:28 --> 32:32 [SPEAKER_00]: When he came over, locomotives, again, can be 30 years old.
32:32 --> 32:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Here's something you also might not like, Lyle, as long and hang and dove into his scouting report on him, in terms of fit with the Mariners, specifically the ballpark.
32:42 --> 32:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Do you want to guess which majorly hitter he compared his spray chart to?
32:47 --> 32:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Don't tell me Jesse Wanker.
32:50 --> 32:50 [SPEAKER_00]: No.
32:52 --> 32:54 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, who has called this player a gimmick?
32:55 --> 32:56 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think I've called any player a gimmick.
32:57 --> 32:58 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, no.
32:59 --> 33:00 [SPEAKER_01]: The thief stock parade isn't it?
33:00 --> 33:03 [SPEAKER_00]: That is exactly who he compared him to.
33:04 --> 33:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh boy.
33:05 --> 33:09 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a little bit more of a tough sell, isn't it?
33:09 --> 33:12 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so I must have not seen long and hagin' right that part of it.
33:14 --> 33:17 [SPEAKER_01]: So that means he hits a lot of wall scraping homers.
33:18 --> 33:21 [SPEAKER_01]: Pollside flyballs is his specialty.
33:22 --> 33:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, if he crushes Poleside fly ball is great, if he's hitting wall scrapers like E-Sock Parades, yeah, he's going to OPS 600 in the small park.
33:30 --> 33:31 [SPEAKER_01]: But it's a different ball.
33:31 --> 33:32 [SPEAKER_01]: We can stick for pictures.
33:33 --> 33:34 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's true.
33:36 --> 33:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, this is why they have to get Nailer done.
33:38 --> 33:45 [SPEAKER_01]: It is an interesting case, and I would legitimately rank him as the second option for the Mariners at first base behind Nailer because there are no other options.
33:45 --> 33:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Especially not ones that are realistic.
33:48 --> 33:48 [SPEAKER_01]: But,
33:49 --> 33:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, there is valid concerns.
33:50 --> 33:52 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll just about any player that'll come over from Japan.
33:53 --> 33:54 [SPEAKER_01]: An Okamoto has concerns.
33:55 --> 33:57 [SPEAKER_00]: Before we get to our next question, do you want to read that?
33:57 --> 34:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, how about our friends over at Pagotchus Pub85?
34:00 --> 34:01 [SPEAKER_01]: You guys hear us talk about it?
34:01 --> 34:02 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll keep talking about it.
34:02 --> 34:04 [SPEAKER_01]: It's an awesome spot to go hang out with your friends.
34:04 --> 34:11 [SPEAKER_01]: If you want to watch some games, there's 20 TVs in the place for all the college football, NFL football, basketball, hockey, it's all in full swing now.
34:11 --> 34:13 [SPEAKER_01]: This is really the peak of the sports calendar.
34:13 --> 34:16 [SPEAKER_01]: So get on out and watch some games with your friends over there.
34:16 --> 34:19 [SPEAKER_01]: You can have some great food and drinks that are during happy hour.
34:19 --> 34:20 [SPEAKER_01]: Awesome deals.
34:20 --> 34:24 [SPEAKER_01]: When I say awesome, there are three and four dollar deals from 2 to 6 p.m. on Monday through Friday.
34:24 --> 34:27 [SPEAKER_01]: Those are happy hours and there are awesome, awesome specials.
34:27 --> 34:30 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, three to four dollar drinks, 2 to 6 p.m. Monday through Friday.
34:30 --> 34:33 [SPEAKER_01]: You can catch all of that at Pagaches Pub 85 in Kirkland.
34:34 --> 34:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Next question is from Zander on Patreon and Zander's question is, has this season changed opinion on ownership investing in the team or this offseason again be make or break for the regime?
34:47 --> 34:48 [SPEAKER_01]: No, it hasn't.
34:48 --> 34:49 [SPEAKER_01]: They need to go out and prove it.
34:49 --> 34:53 [SPEAKER_01]: This winner, I was thrilled with what the Mariners did at the trade deadline.
34:54 --> 34:55 [SPEAKER_01]: Let me be very clear about that.
34:56 --> 34:58 [SPEAKER_01]: That's a gerian Justin thing.
34:59 --> 35:04 [SPEAKER_01]: Most of that is credit to them and their staff in the front office for going out, pulling the trigger and making the moves that they did.
35:05 --> 35:15 [SPEAKER_01]: If they were not allowed to pull the trigger for Josh Nailer and AUH Neoswar as this summer,
35:16 --> 35:18 [SPEAKER_01]: That's a problem in its own right.
35:18 --> 35:24 [SPEAKER_01]: Like I'm sorry, I can't sit up here and parade the owners for taking on $8 million of the trade deadline.
35:24 --> 35:25 [SPEAKER_01]: You want to go out and change your narrative?
35:26 --> 35:27 [SPEAKER_01]: You better go get some stuff done this winter.
35:27 --> 35:29 [SPEAKER_01]: It starts with Josh Nailer.
35:30 --> 35:35 [SPEAKER_00]: We either need like a 10-year sample of spending or they need to win a world series, one of those two.
35:35 --> 35:36 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
35:36 --> 35:47 [SPEAKER_00]: No, those are those are the things to for them to make it and for us to not hold this cloud over them, which I think there should always be expectations for the fans to hold the organization to the highest standard.
35:49 --> 35:52 [SPEAKER_00]: It just depends like is your process working.
35:53 --> 35:59 [SPEAKER_00]: For example, like teams that don't necessarily go out and spend in free agency that much, but of one.
35:59 --> 36:04 [SPEAKER_00]: For example, the Atlanta Braves.
36:04 --> 36:14 [SPEAKER_00]: but they've won a world series and they're winning strategy is pretty similar to the Mariners to be honest, it's draft-developed train, but they're payrolls in the top ten.
36:15 --> 36:21 [SPEAKER_00]: Correct, because they also pay all their stars as well, which helps, and they're active to go out and pay players from other teams.
36:22 --> 36:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Mariners haven't really done that, you're right, there is a difference, but again, that's like seeing, like let's use the brave's example again for this offseason, like they
36:32 --> 36:35 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, you're brave-spensing, like, got to go out and spend in free agency.
36:35 --> 36:37 [SPEAKER_00]: It's like, well, no, they have their process down.
36:37 --> 36:40 [SPEAKER_00]: So they're going to trust their process to work.
36:40 --> 36:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Their process has worked.
36:42 --> 36:43 [SPEAKER_00]: Mariners' process has not worked yet.
36:44 --> 36:44 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
36:44 --> 36:46 [SPEAKER_00]: So, like, that's, again, what they need to show.
36:47 --> 36:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Winner World Series, or you got 10 years where your process is really good, but the results just aren't there, unfortunately.
36:53 --> 36:55 [SPEAKER_00]: So that's how I would look at it.
36:55 --> 36:56 [SPEAKER_00]: You can't.
36:56 --> 37:00 [SPEAKER_00]: They signed Josh Nailer and they signed Jorge Polanco and they signed Devin Williams.
37:02 --> 37:04 [SPEAKER_00]: The ownership has made it for the soft season.
37:04 --> 37:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we'll have no bad words to say big and I guess it doesn't have to be Devin Williams specifically.
37:09 --> 37:11 [SPEAKER_01]: But you go bring those two guys back and you go get a real bullpin arm.
37:12 --> 37:13 [SPEAKER_01]: Great.
37:13 --> 37:25 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not saying you're going to be paraded by the national media saying you won the off season because whatever team makes a couple of ridiculous flashes is going to be the golden child of the off season and people are going to hype them all up.
37:25 --> 37:40 [SPEAKER_01]: But if you're the Mariners and your Mariners fans and your organization goes out and does exactly that and they essentially run most of the group back from last year and you add to the bullpen a little bit and you give yourself some wiggle room to still add at the deadline, which we know is a part of their process.
37:41 --> 37:43 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we'll say they did a good job.
37:43 --> 37:51 [SPEAKER_01]: We will say they are set out and ready to compete for a pen and yet again, because if they go do those things, they will be, and there will be no bad blood.
37:51 --> 37:56 [SPEAKER_01]: And again, not every position has to be figured out, set and stone on opening day.
37:56 --> 37:59 [SPEAKER_01]: If there are bases a little bit of an experiment for the first half of the year, okay?
38:00 --> 38:04 [SPEAKER_01]: If it's really a problem, you can go out at the deadline and do something about it.
38:05 --> 38:14 [SPEAKER_01]: I would love for them to go get Cal Tucker as I've made very clear, but let's say for some reason that I have foreseen my prediction wrong somehow, I'll be insane.
38:14 --> 38:19 [SPEAKER_01]: And he goes somewhere else, and you have to figure out right field again, all right, let it play out for half a season.
38:19 --> 38:21 [SPEAKER_01]: If you have to go add somebody at the deadline, you can do that.
38:22 --> 38:27 [SPEAKER_01]: But if the Mariners go out and again, kind of, if they go out and do what we highlighted, they've done their job.
38:28 --> 38:31 [SPEAKER_01]: But we hear $15 million, again, there's going to be problems.
38:31 --> 38:35 [SPEAKER_00]: This is a juicy next question.
38:36 --> 38:42 [SPEAKER_00]: This is from Mitchell on Instagram, and this is going to highlight the subject we're talking about beginning of the episode.
38:42 --> 38:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Where would the Mariners be right now if they took trace savage at number 15 instead of
38:51 --> 39:10 [SPEAKER_01]: So we did preview this a little bit earlier in the episode because yeah, there's been a lot of discourse on this here in the last day or so after trade savage through an unbelievable game five start in the world series you punched out 12 that's a world series record for a rookie when seven innings anchored the blue jays to a game five win as we're recording this or one went away from a world series title.
39:12 --> 39:14 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm sorry guys week week go ahead.
39:14 --> 39:18 [SPEAKER_00]: I was going to say let's answer the question first and then do big picture things second.
39:19 --> 39:19 [SPEAKER_01]: All right.
39:20 --> 39:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Where would the Mariners be if they had drafted tray of Savage over Dr. Angela?
39:23 --> 39:25 [SPEAKER_01]: They would be sitting right where they're sitting right now.
39:25 --> 39:29 [SPEAKER_01]: TJ and I would be sitting here doing this very exact episode, doing an offseason male bag.
39:29 --> 39:30 [SPEAKER_01]: The Mariners would not be in the world series.
39:32 --> 39:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Why?
39:33 --> 39:40 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm right there with, actually, well, would they be in the world series by subtraction?
39:40 --> 39:48 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, because instead of facing tray of Savage, they would have faced Jose Barrios or Chris Bassett instead.
39:50 --> 39:54 [SPEAKER_00]: There's no guarantee that that changes, but, okay, I mean, the odds were playing a what if game.
39:54 --> 39:57 [SPEAKER_00]: So actually, let's go with yours and just say it's the exact same.
39:57 --> 39:59 [SPEAKER_00]: Which I'm on there with you on.
40:00 --> 40:04 [SPEAKER_01]: Because Trace Savage, if he was in the Mariners organization, would have ended the year in AA.
40:04 --> 40:07 [SPEAKER_01]: He wasn't going to replace any of those five guys in the rotation.
40:08 --> 40:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Who was there to replace?
40:09 --> 40:21 [SPEAKER_01]: those guys are about a set in stone is anybody in baseball when they're all healthy that's the rotation so you savage would have spent the year on the miners which is fine you would have had a good year I'm sure the miners but the mariner's aren't in a different spot right now
40:23 --> 40:32 [SPEAKER_00]: And during those numbers in the minors are not that different from trade savages, no, no, not really.
40:32 --> 40:33 [SPEAKER_00]: So, uh, like, sorry.
40:33 --> 40:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to, let me answer the question.
40:35 --> 40:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Mariners would be nowhere different because the Mariners, unlike the blue jays, have a set five in the rotation when it's healthy and there's not going to be a single prospect that's going to bump any of those guys out of the rotation unless they trade out of their rotation.
40:49 --> 40:52 [SPEAKER_00]: That's the only way there's going to be a spot open injury or trade.
40:52 --> 40:53 [SPEAKER_00]: That's it.
40:53 --> 40:58 [SPEAKER_00]: And at the end of the season, when Traias Savage debuted in the middle of September, Marissa had five stars.
40:59 --> 41:08 [SPEAKER_00]: And they sure as heck, we're not going to say, oh, yeah, let's put a rookie who, we just drafted last year throwing on fumes probably.
41:09 --> 41:11 [SPEAKER_00]: to throw our biggest games of the season.
41:11 --> 41:13 [SPEAKER_00]: No, it's not what the Mariners are gonna do.
41:13 --> 41:21 [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, Mariners would be no different right now with Trace, Avenger, Angel, Sange, in fact, we'd probably be talking about the two pictures the same right now.
41:21 --> 41:32 [SPEAKER_00]: Whether or not you had to Rangel or Tray, you'd be very excited to see them next year and they'd most likely be debuting for the Mariners sometime next season when a spot opens up.
41:33 --> 41:36 [SPEAKER_00]: The only real difference between the two of them this year to be on a slow.
41:37 --> 41:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Treyah Savage did strike out batteries other than much higher rate in the minor leagues.
41:41 --> 41:45 [SPEAKER_00]: He had a 41% strike out rate in the minors this year.
41:46 --> 41:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's really good.
41:47 --> 41:48 [SPEAKER_01]: Nysplitter's been nasty.
41:48 --> 41:49 [SPEAKER_01]: There's no denying that.
41:49 --> 41:52 [SPEAKER_01]: He had a great first year overall minor leagues and big leagues.
41:53 --> 42:02 [SPEAKER_00]: But also, these eight starts he's made at the big league level in no way have convinced me or convinced Lyle, but Mariners made the wrong decision.
42:02 --> 42:05 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm sorry, everyone watched that start against the Dodgers.
42:05 --> 42:06 [SPEAKER_00]: It's great.
42:06 --> 42:09 [SPEAKER_00]: He was fantastic in that start.
42:09 --> 42:14 [SPEAKER_00]: The Mariners should have kicked his ass to starts in a row in the LCS, but rolled over and didn't.
42:14 --> 42:16 [SPEAKER_00]: Like that's it.
42:16 --> 42:18 [SPEAKER_00]: Then what's the reputation of Tray's avidch?
42:19 --> 42:30 [SPEAKER_00]: that he was a rookie, pitching as deep in a season as he's ever pitched in his career, facing a team in the ALCS that is an incredibly talented lineup and just got overratched.
42:30 --> 42:31 [SPEAKER_00]: That's what we'd be talking about.
42:32 --> 42:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Not that what if they took St. John's stead, no, wouldn't be talking about that.
42:40 --> 42:43 [SPEAKER_01]: And again, there's still a real world, Dr. Angela's upside is higher.
42:43 --> 42:45 [SPEAKER_01]: This was always the expectation.
42:45 --> 42:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Dr. Angela was never supposed to move as fast as you savage.
42:47 --> 42:48 [SPEAKER_01]: That was always the idea.
42:49 --> 42:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Your savage was gonna move quicker.
42:50 --> 42:52 [SPEAKER_01]: Floor was a little bit higher.
42:52 --> 42:58 [SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, he shot his way through the minor leagues.
42:58 --> 42:59 [SPEAKER_01]: But guess what?
42:59 --> 43:03 [SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have the pitch, he doesn't have the pitch mix that Dr. Angela has.
43:04 --> 43:09 [SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have the, like the upshoed on the fastball that Dr. Angela has.
43:09 --> 43:14 [SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have, again, he doesn't have a slider like Durangelo.
43:14 --> 43:16 [SPEAKER_01]: It's just, it's different profiles.
43:16 --> 43:26 [SPEAKER_01]: And Joe said this, Joe Doyle, our friend, who comes on a few times a year with us, he said that for the Mariners, Durangelo Sanger made more sense for them than Trayis Savage.
43:27 --> 43:28 [SPEAKER_01]: There was more to work with.
43:28 --> 43:30 [SPEAKER_01]: There was a little bit more raw talent there.
43:30 --> 43:37 [SPEAKER_01]: And again, with what the Mariners like in their pictures, that's what Durangelo presents.
43:38 --> 43:41 [SPEAKER_00]: If there's a viral clip from a guest of our podcast, it's most likely Joe.
43:43 --> 43:58 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, we've talked to them about this, or it's like, every time he comes on, there's always that one clip that usually rubs to you for the wrong way, and this one is 18 months old.
43:59 --> 44:01 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, you know what?
44:02 --> 44:07 [SPEAKER_01]: The post-K to Anderson draft podcast, he's done great, so far, there's nothing about that.
44:08 --> 44:13 [SPEAKER_00]: He's still got a full year for that to come back around and get dug up again, I've never got.
44:14 --> 44:24 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, yeah, people, again, people in like is takes about lads before the start of this season, but Mariners fans don't like to hear anything about lads other than he's going to be Babe Ruth.
44:27 --> 44:40 [SPEAKER_00]: I just want to offer a public apology on half of the Marine Lair podcast to one Joe Doyle for causing him much more angst than he probably should by doing the gracious thing and coming on here.
44:40 --> 44:43 [SPEAKER_01]: But again, like his analysis on that is right.
44:43 --> 44:46 [SPEAKER_01]: If you go and listen to the clip, we tweeted it out here on Thursday.
44:46 --> 44:48 [SPEAKER_01]: The analysis on that's right.
44:49 --> 44:55 [SPEAKER_01]: He had, and he showed it on Twitter, he had you savage ranked ahead of Jerangelow, but he talked about four of the Mariners.
44:55 --> 45:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Jerangelow's a pick made much more sense, and he didn't just, I just don't think he wants to go viral anymore, which is don't think he wants to look up.
45:05 --> 45:07 [SPEAKER_00]: He's got 30 mentions.
45:09 --> 45:15 [SPEAKER_01]: If we've learned anything about Blue Jays fans in these playoffs, man, or they have feisty group on Twitter, good Lord.
45:15 --> 45:19 [SPEAKER_00]: And I don't just mean they are led by the feistyest of them all.
45:19 --> 45:20 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I was going to say it.
45:20 --> 45:23 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not even really talking about friend of the pod Johnny June's.
45:23 --> 45:31 [SPEAKER_01]: They have gate 14 because he might clap back at a lot of Mariners fans, but since we're all in good graces, like it doesn't usually come our way.
45:32 --> 45:37 [SPEAKER_01]: It's all the trolls on Blue Jays Twitter that get all fired up and are ready to attack people.
45:38 --> 45:39 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, it's crazy.
45:39 --> 45:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they should probably just focus on the world series and not on the mariners.
45:43 --> 45:49 [SPEAKER_00]: There's plenty of big Dodgers accounts out there that you guys feel free You need a plug.
45:49 --> 45:51 [SPEAKER_01]: We have a friend that's got a massive Dodgers account on Twitter.
45:51 --> 45:56 [SPEAKER_00]: You can go at him at Blake Harris Exactly.
45:57 --> 45:57 [SPEAKER_00]: All right.
45:57 --> 45:58 [SPEAKER_00]: That was a good one.
45:58 --> 46:00 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's get to our next question.
46:00 --> 46:04 [SPEAKER_00]: This is on YouTube from Gavin and Gavin's question is
46:04 --> 46:07 [SPEAKER_00]: Why is nobody talking about Luis a rise anymore?
46:07 --> 46:08 [SPEAKER_00]: He's a free agent.
46:08 --> 46:11 [SPEAKER_00]: You wanted to add some contact to the bottom of your lineup.
46:11 --> 46:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Why not?
46:14 --> 46:19 [SPEAKER_01]: I think nobody's talking about Luis a rise because he was a below-league average header this year.
46:19 --> 46:22 [SPEAKER_01]: He had a 99 OPS plus, but he hit 292.
46:23 --> 46:26 [SPEAKER_01]: So all the boomers are going to jump in here and say,
46:26 --> 46:43 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, batting average will never die, this is how you build a winning baseball team, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,
46:44 --> 46:47 [SPEAKER_01]: There's a reason he doesn't rack up value by wins above replacement.
46:47 --> 46:50 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the last two years, he's been a one-wind player.
46:51 --> 46:55 [SPEAKER_01]: He's not going into free agency with the ability to command a lot of money.
46:55 --> 46:56 [SPEAKER_01]: Somebody will sign them.
46:57 --> 47:00 [SPEAKER_01]: But the Mariners, one, I don't know where in the world you play them.
47:01 --> 47:05 [SPEAKER_01]: And I don't really have any interest in allocating any money toward Luis O'Riz.
47:05 --> 47:13 [SPEAKER_01]: I guys who's not going to be a well above average hitter.
47:14 --> 47:16 [SPEAKER_00]: Gavin is referring to.
47:16 --> 47:18 [SPEAKER_00]: So Gavin wants to add more contact, right?
47:18 --> 47:24 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think there's a big difference between just adding contact and adding the type of contact the Mariners saw against the blue chase.
47:24 --> 47:28 [SPEAKER_00]: The blue chase version of contact was crushed baseball and open spot on the field.
47:29 --> 47:30 [SPEAKER_00]: Who's the right?
47:30 --> 47:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't really crush baseballs.
47:32 --> 47:32 [SPEAKER_00]: That's the thing.
47:33 --> 47:34 [SPEAKER_00]: He needs to get a little lucky.
47:34 --> 47:36 [SPEAKER_00]: He needs to put the ball over the yard.
47:36 --> 47:43 [SPEAKER_00]: And it's worked out very well for him in his career because he's got a swing that puts the ball right in the spot in the outfield that drops in first
47:44 --> 47:49 [SPEAKER_00]: But he's also, like, taking steps back and things that he's good at.
47:50 --> 47:51 [SPEAKER_00]: I watched someone break this down.
47:51 --> 47:53 [SPEAKER_00]: I can't remember who, but it sticks to me in my mind.
47:54 --> 47:58 [SPEAKER_00]: This dude watches first-pitch fastballs right down the middle more than just about anybody.
47:59 --> 48:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, the prime pitch of an at-bat, the best pitch you're ever gonna see.
48:04 --> 48:05 [SPEAKER_00]: It's got his bad on his shoulder.
48:05 --> 48:08 [SPEAKER_00]: Ball goes right by him, right down the middle.
48:08 --> 48:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, that's supposed to be someone who's in control of the strike zone, and that doesn't...
48:14 --> 48:24 [SPEAKER_00]: Just because you want to battle with two strikes, like no, like no, that part doesn't sound very good and also he used to slug a little bit.
48:24 --> 48:26 [SPEAKER_00]: He had multiple years with a slug over 450.
48:26 --> 48:34 [SPEAKER_00]: If he was going to hit 301 in slug 450, regardless of the fact he walked or not or how many singles he hits.
48:34 --> 48:37 [SPEAKER_00]: That's fine, but his slug lasts two seasons, or his under 400.
48:37 --> 48:39 [SPEAKER_00]: He's not slugging at least a little bit?
48:40 --> 48:41 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a problem.
48:42 --> 48:44 [SPEAKER_00]: And that makes him that much less valuable.
48:45 --> 48:46 [SPEAKER_00]: But you're right, I don't know where you plan.
48:46 --> 48:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Where do you plan?
48:48 --> 48:55 [SPEAKER_01]: And if Nailer leaves, I guess that's a first-based option, but don't go look at Louisa Rises defensive metrics there.
48:55 --> 48:55 [SPEAKER_01]: Awful.
48:56 --> 48:58 [SPEAKER_01]: If you want contact just sign Josh Nailer.
48:59 --> 48:59 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, exactly.
48:59 --> 49:00 [SPEAKER_01]: That's what he does well.
49:01 --> 49:03 [SPEAKER_01]: How many times do you have to keep coming back to this conversation?
49:03 --> 49:05 [SPEAKER_01]: Get the fucking Josh Nailer deal done.
49:06 --> 49:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Good Lord.
49:07 --> 49:10 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Louisa Rises is a really bad defender.
49:10 --> 49:12 [SPEAKER_01]: By Ots above average, he is in the fourth percentile.
49:12 --> 49:14 [SPEAKER_01]: And it's been like that basically,
49:15 --> 49:16 [SPEAKER_01]: his entire career.
49:16 --> 49:18 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, do you want to go by year old?
49:18 --> 49:21 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, since 2019, I'll just read it really fast.
49:22 --> 49:24 [SPEAKER_01]: First, 12, 10, 15.
49:24 --> 49:25 [SPEAKER_01]: First, first, fourth.
49:26 --> 49:27 [SPEAKER_01]: He's a terrible defender.
49:28 --> 49:30 [SPEAKER_00]: What would you be comfortable signing Louisa Rice for?
49:30 --> 49:32 [SPEAKER_00]: $5 million here.
49:32 --> 49:34 [SPEAKER_00]: That's what I was going to say, $4 or $5 million.
49:35 --> 49:37 [SPEAKER_00]: You want to guess what SpotTrack projects him to get?
49:38 --> 49:38 [SPEAKER_00]: What?
49:38 --> 49:41 [SPEAKER_00]: $14 million.
49:41 --> 49:46 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, whatever team gives him that, you might as well just take that money and piss it down the drain.
49:49 --> 49:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you.
49:50 --> 49:51 [SPEAKER_00]: That's exactly my thought.
49:51 --> 49:52 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm sorry.
49:52 --> 49:56 [SPEAKER_00]: A rise comes with a star next to it depending on how much he costs.
49:56 --> 49:57 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm sorry, Gavin.
49:57 --> 49:58 [SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully you're still listening.
49:58 --> 49:59 [SPEAKER_01]: It's still a good question.
49:59 --> 50:04 [SPEAKER_01]: I understand the intrigue with Luis O'Rides, and obviously there's not a lot of guys in today's day and age that hit for a crazy high average.
50:04 --> 50:05 [SPEAKER_01]: It's a good question.
50:06 --> 50:08 [SPEAKER_01]: You just, unfortunately,
50:08 --> 50:11 [SPEAKER_01]: triggered the wrong button.
50:11 --> 50:17 [SPEAKER_01]: At least for me, maybe for TJ a little bit too, where Louise the Rise, it's not about your question.
50:17 --> 50:32 [SPEAKER_01]: If very much becomes a new school versus old school battle when you start talking about Louise the Rise, and you often have to fight these boomers that think he should win the MVP because he hits 300 in a day and age, or nobody just hits for contact anymore.
50:32 --> 50:34 [SPEAKER_01]: And it's like, well, he's not actually a valuable hitter.
50:35 --> 50:35 [SPEAKER_01]: Any more.
50:35 --> 50:37 [SPEAKER_01]: He will not only contact us.
50:37 --> 50:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Right, exactly.
50:39 --> 50:41 [SPEAKER_01]: So I don't think the mayor should signarise.
50:41 --> 50:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Next question comes from YouTube, Nathan is asking, What is the estimated market for Breigman?
50:49 --> 50:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Would that possibly be worth it?
50:52 --> 50:54 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's worth it, but we have to say it again.
50:54 --> 50:55 [SPEAKER_01]: Scott Boris client.
50:57 --> 50:57 [SPEAKER_01]: With that,
50:59 --> 51:01 [SPEAKER_01]: makes things really tough.
51:01 --> 51:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, I love to sit here and say the Mariners should fix whatever ridiculous strained relationship they have with Scott Boris at this point because how is this going on for 25 years?
51:12 --> 51:13 [SPEAKER_01]: But somehow it has.
51:14 --> 51:21 [SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know if they fixed it in one off season or not, and I don't know unfortunately if the Mariners are going to pay Alex Braggman or ridiculous amount of money or not.
51:22 --> 51:22 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
51:22 --> 51:25 [SPEAKER_01]: To me, it feels like he might just end back in Boston.
51:25 --> 51:27 [SPEAKER_01]: And the Red Sox give him another
51:27 --> 51:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Short-ish term deal.
51:29 --> 51:31 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe there's some more years attached to it.
51:32 --> 51:36 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe the AA deal be a little bit lower than it was this past year when it was at 40 million a year.
51:36 --> 51:43 [SPEAKER_01]: But Braggman feels like he's going to play in the decently size market with a team that
51:44 --> 51:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I mean, the Mariners do win.
51:47 --> 51:49 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they look at what they did this past year.
51:49 --> 51:50 [SPEAKER_01]: It's, I don't know.
51:50 --> 51:52 [SPEAKER_01]: It feels unlikely, Breckman would go to Seattle.
51:52 --> 51:53 [SPEAKER_01]: It feels like Boston's going to be in play.
51:53 --> 51:56 [SPEAKER_01]: It feels like I'm sure the Met's will be in play again.
51:56 --> 51:58 [SPEAKER_01]: I bet you the Tigers and AJ Hanch will be in play.
51:58 --> 52:03 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I just, it doesn't feel likely he'd come to Seattle.
52:03 --> 52:05 [SPEAKER_01]: The market, I mean, there's going to be teams interested.
52:05 --> 52:05 [SPEAKER_01]: There's no doubt.
52:06 --> 52:07 [SPEAKER_01]: He's the top third basement on the market again.
52:07 --> 52:12 [SPEAKER_01]: But it feels like the teams that were interested in him last winter
52:13 --> 52:17 [SPEAKER_00]: by far the biggest conundrum of this is not even the other teams involved in this.
52:18 --> 52:20 [SPEAKER_00]: As it usually as it comes down to the money.
52:21 --> 52:21 [SPEAKER_00]: There's two roadblocks.
52:22 --> 52:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Roadblock number one.
52:25 --> 52:26 [SPEAKER_00]: You don't want to sign them to a long-term deal.
52:26 --> 52:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Great.
52:27 --> 52:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he would take a short-term deal.
52:30 --> 52:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Short-term deal A.A.V.
52:31 --> 52:35 [SPEAKER_00]: would probably be about what it was last year, which was $40 million.
52:35 --> 52:42 [SPEAKER_00]: As much as we'd like the Meredith's assigned someone for $40 million a year, they're not going to do it.
52:43 --> 52:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, cow Tucker, but Kate talked my, get less of that.
52:48 --> 52:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's true.
52:50 --> 52:50 [SPEAKER_00]: So the now.
52:50 --> 52:52 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, A, A, V, Y, yeah.
52:53 --> 52:58 [SPEAKER_00]: The other option is to sign him for an A, V. That is the little more manageable.
52:58 --> 53:00 [SPEAKER_00]: How about below $30 million a year?
53:00 --> 53:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Spotchack projects him to get $27 million a year.
53:04 --> 53:10 [SPEAKER_00]: To do that, you need to sign a 31 year old to probably at least in eight-year contract,
53:11 --> 53:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Again, we're not gonna do.
53:14 --> 53:17 [SPEAKER_00]: That leaves not much to sign how experiment.
53:18 --> 53:19 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, do you find, is there a way around that?
53:20 --> 53:26 [SPEAKER_01]: And again, everything you just listed out, you didn't even mention the Scott Boris part of it and dealing with Scott Boris versus the Mariners.
53:29 --> 53:30 [SPEAKER_01]: No way around that.
53:30 --> 53:32 [SPEAKER_01]: No, it just feels unlikely.
53:33 --> 53:36 [SPEAKER_01]: And by the way, despite what I'm sure some people feel,
53:36 --> 53:43 [SPEAKER_01]: who are listening to this and some people who will probably let us know in the comments how they want no part of Alex Braggman he should be banned from baseball he's a cheater, etc.
53:43 --> 53:44 [SPEAKER_01]: etc.
53:44 --> 53:54 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean I don't really care about that if you had a chance to get Alex Braggman on your team doing it in a heartbeat but for every roadblock the teacher just listed I think that's why it won't happen.
53:55 --> 53:57 [SPEAKER_01]: I hope I'm wrong but I just doubt it.
53:58 --> 54:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Last question here comes from Ben on Instagram and Ben's question is does Kate Anderson have an
54:06 --> 54:21 [SPEAKER_01]: possibility to yes, do I think he does know because for as polished as he is and his greatest season at LSU as he just had, I think what it might be easy for some people to forget is Kate Anderson at Tommy John when he was in high school.
54:21 --> 54:24 [SPEAKER_01]: He missed essentially his entire first year at LSU.
54:24 --> 54:30 [SPEAKER_01]: His first season on the field, aka true sophomore year,
54:31 --> 54:39 [SPEAKER_01]: He threw 38 innings, and then he had the big year as a junior and shot up draft boards to land him at number three to the Mariners when he could have gone at number one.
54:40 --> 54:49 [SPEAKER_01]: So what that's saying is Kid Anderson really had one year of a full season and productive college baseball since his junior year high school.
54:50 --> 54:54 [SPEAKER_01]: Could he project really fast and get to the big leagues quickly next year and help down the stretch?
54:55 --> 54:58 [SPEAKER_01]: I won't really out, certainly possible, he's got the talent to do it.
54:59 --> 55:02 [SPEAKER_01]: But I wouldn't rule out the Mariners slow playing him either.
55:02 --> 55:05 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's remember, they didn't have him throw any innings once he got drafted.
55:05 --> 55:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Shot him down, he went to Arizona, took it easy.
55:08 --> 55:14 [SPEAKER_01]: I think they may be a little careful with him because, again, he hasn't been that far removed from Tommy John.
55:14 --> 55:17 [SPEAKER_01]: And I think they want to build up a little bit of a workload first.
55:19 --> 55:22 [SPEAKER_00]: I look at their path to him being in the big leagues.
55:22 --> 55:23 [SPEAKER_00]: And I also to answer your question, Ben.
55:24 --> 55:26 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he has an impact on the Mariners next year.
55:28 --> 55:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Could you think of a path for him to get to the big leagues?
55:31 --> 55:36 [SPEAKER_00]: Because I can't, next year, I really can't, because here's the math you're dealing with right now.
55:37 --> 55:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, this second, this second, the mayor said five starters in the rotation.
55:43 --> 55:46 [SPEAKER_00]: They could trade one of them, but we don't know that yet.
55:47 --> 55:49 [SPEAKER_00]: So right now they have five established starters.
55:49 --> 55:50 [SPEAKER_00]: No open spots.
55:51 --> 55:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's say they trade Luis Castillo.
55:54 --> 55:57 [SPEAKER_00]: First man in that rotation next is Logan Evans.
55:58 --> 56:05 [SPEAKER_00]: We'll guess what, he's pitch many more professional innings, so he's going to get a chance before Kate does.
56:06 --> 56:09 [SPEAKER_00]: Kate is also probably going to be an Everett at this point, right?
56:09 --> 56:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Just consider how far away he is, you need to get his feet under him from a professional level.
56:14 --> 56:18 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's say it gets to mid season and Kate has 70 innings under his belt.
56:18 --> 56:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's say just graduated Everett and he's on to Arkansas now.
56:23 --> 56:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's say someone else gets hurt or let's say Logan struggles and they want to try somebody else But that's not going to happen because Logan Evans is our dude needs going to crush next year, but in this hypothetical Let's say that spot opens up Would you take Kate Anderson who just got into AA Or would you take Jorangelo St. Joe will who will be on his fourth or fifth month of AA pitching also a first round pick
56:52 --> 56:53 [SPEAKER_01]: Who could also be in Triple A by that point?
56:54 --> 56:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Correct.
56:56 --> 56:57 [SPEAKER_00]: It'd be Dr. Andrew.
56:57 --> 56:57 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
56:58 --> 57:02 [SPEAKER_00]: So the only way Kate Anderson, I think, gets to the big leagues next year.
57:02 --> 57:07 [SPEAKER_00]: So if the Mariners have three injuries, long-term injuries in the rotation.
57:09 --> 57:10 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think that's right.
57:10 --> 57:14 [SPEAKER_00]: And Kate is not the strikeout guy.
57:14 --> 57:27 [SPEAKER_00]: I think at least from a stuff perspective that someone like a tray of savages, I would be shocked if Kate Anderson shows up and rolls out that 41% strikeout rate that tray of savages had in the minors this year.
57:27 --> 57:30 [SPEAKER_00]: If he does, then maybe you think about it.
57:30 --> 57:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe Lyle, you put him in the bullpen for the post season.
57:33 --> 57:40 [SPEAKER_00]: you who knows how well like a really solid multi-ending high-levered reliever could do in the playoffs, free at that point.
57:41 --> 57:45 [SPEAKER_00]: But besides that, the math is just not mathing on this one.
57:45 --> 57:48 [SPEAKER_00]: On top of the fact that he just needs to build up innings.
57:48 --> 57:50 [SPEAKER_00]: The Mariners want to get him to 140 innings next year.
57:50 --> 57:56 [SPEAKER_00]: And the easiest way to do that is to structure everything out for him in the minor leagues.
57:57 --> 57:58 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that's all lined out pretty well.
57:59 --> 58:02 [SPEAKER_01]: And this is not a anti-KD Anderson thing by any means.
58:02 --> 58:09 [SPEAKER_01]: It's just a build-em-up sort of thing, and it's a number of spots on a roster sort of thing, and in a rotation thing.
58:10 --> 58:14 [SPEAKER_01]: KD Anderson's gonna get his time, and when he's ready, he's gonna be in the rotation, one way or another.
58:15 --> 58:16 [SPEAKER_01]: But we gotta get there first.
58:16 --> 58:26 [SPEAKER_01]: And it just may not be as rapid-fast as people want to see it be in 26, which is okay.
58:28 --> 58:32 [SPEAKER_00]: So we'll see, but we'll get a better sense of this next year.
58:32 --> 58:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I just think it depends how aggressive they're going to be with him.
58:35 --> 58:36 [SPEAKER_00]: It does help.
58:36 --> 58:37 [SPEAKER_00]: They have other guys in front of him.
58:37 --> 58:40 [SPEAKER_00]: And we're also not even including Ryan Sloan who will.
58:40 --> 58:45 [SPEAKER_00]: He will essentially be toe and toe with starting next season as well, both of them being an Everett.
58:45 --> 58:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Who's going to move faster?
58:47 --> 58:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, Kate will move faster.
58:50 --> 58:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe than a high school arm, yeah.
58:52 --> 58:54 [SPEAKER_01]: More likely, but it's not.
58:55 --> 58:56 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not guaranteed.
58:56 --> 59:05 [SPEAKER_01]: No, it's not guaranteed, but I think for again, for his caravals, they'll be with Kate Anderson, even more so with Sloan.
59:05 --> 59:07 [SPEAKER_01]: With high school arms, you got a really developed one.
59:08 --> 59:10 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not even thinking of terms of putting them in the big leagues.
59:10 --> 59:14 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm thinking of terms of where they are in the system.
59:15 --> 59:18 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Sloan will have a chance to get up at some point in twenty seven.
59:18 --> 59:36 [SPEAKER_01]: I think if everything projects the way it's supposed to project, so in that way, him and Cade could be on similar trajectories, but college arms just naturally usually move faster, especially somebody like Kate Anderson, and I'll also remind people there's not room for all of these arms unfortunately.
59:36 --> 59:40 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they'll figure it out at some point, but across that bridge, when you get to it.
59:40 --> 59:41 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
59:41 --> 59:43 [SPEAKER_00]: So as of right now, it's just a little bit of development.
59:43 --> 59:44 [UNKNOWN]: Yeah.
59:44 --> 59:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Alright, good mailbag, as always good questions, you guys always bring it if you guys want to get priority on these.
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01:00:03 --> 01:00:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, that's just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Lair podcast.
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01:00:37 --> 01:00:37 [SPEAKER_01]: That's TJ.
01:00:37 --> 01:00:38 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Lyle.
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