Lyle and TJ react to the trade between the Mets and Rangers, and how it impacts the Mariners (2:30). They then discuss whether or not it's a good idea if the Mariners trade for Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu (11:28).
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00:00 --> 00:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Welcome to episode number 329 of the Marine Layer podcast show the Mariners consider trading with the Boston Red Sox more specifically, gerundoran or willier or bray you to address the Mariners corner outfield situation.
00:12 --> 00:16 [SPEAKER_02]: Lana dive into discuss how that would make sense and whether or not the Mariners should do it.
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00:51 --> 00:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's get it rolling!
01:05 --> 01:14 [SPEAKER_02]: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Lair podcast part of the just baseball podcast network recording here on Sunday evening November 23rd.
01:14 --> 01:18 [SPEAKER_02]: The first ever podcast from the state of Hawaii as I sit in.
01:18 --> 01:19 [SPEAKER_02]: Quiet right now.
01:20 --> 01:20 [SPEAKER_02]: Wow.
01:20 --> 01:20 [SPEAKER_02]: History.
01:21 --> 01:22 [SPEAKER_02]: We have made history.
01:22 --> 01:23 [SPEAKER_02]: The offseason is so slow.
01:24 --> 01:26 [SPEAKER_02]: We're making up new milestones.
01:26 --> 01:28 [SPEAKER_02]: So congratulations, Lyle.
01:28 --> 01:29 [SPEAKER_02]: That's not slow anymore.
01:30 --> 01:31 [SPEAKER_02]: So for the Mariners.
01:32 --> 01:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, yeah, it's slow for the Mariners.
01:34 --> 01:35 [SPEAKER_00]: That's fair.
01:35 --> 01:36 [SPEAKER_00]: After signing.
01:36 --> 01:40 [SPEAKER_02]: We did we did we did we did have quite a long discourse on what to talk about today.
01:40 --> 01:41 [SPEAKER_02]: Given it's like.
01:42 --> 01:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Is there anything anything recent to talk about there has been almost nothing and to their credit.
01:49 --> 01:55 [SPEAKER_00]: They got a lot of it done early with signing Josh Nailer, but after that it's been Nothing.
01:55 --> 01:59 [SPEAKER_00]: It's been a couple of polonco Tidbits here and there, but that's about it
02:00 --> 02:02 [SPEAKER_02]: So let's talk about then the current news of the day.
02:02 --> 02:21 [SPEAKER_02]: We do have the mock trades or the the ideas of trading with the Boston Reds I was coming up a little bit later in the episode, but there is a trade that happened today that will affect the mariner's because it happened within the American like West in a very rare a big league player for big league player one for one trade happened today here on Sunday.
02:22 --> 02:27 [SPEAKER_02]: The match traded Brandon memo to the Texas Rangers for Marcus Semion
02:28 --> 02:31 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of layers to this trade right now.
02:31 --> 02:40 [SPEAKER_02]: It's the Texas Ranger saying we need to shed salary, though, still adding a ton of salary over $100 million from Brandon Nemo.
02:40 --> 02:49 [SPEAKER_02]: And then the Met's clearing up long-term salary, so they could potentially sign someone long-term while acquiring Marcus semi and age 35.
02:50 --> 02:52 [SPEAKER_02]: You and I were sitting here talking about this trade when it happened.
02:52 --> 02:55 [SPEAKER_02]: It's like, what?
02:56 --> 02:57 [SPEAKER_00]: quick side note.
02:58 --> 02:59 [SPEAKER_00]: I would love to ask him this one day.
03:00 --> 03:04 [SPEAKER_00]: How many people in the world of baseball have Jeff Passing notifications on?
03:04 --> 03:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Because I think it's a lot.
03:05 --> 03:16 [SPEAKER_00]: And I ask this because all I had to do when that trade went down because you and I and plenty other people both have his notifications on, especially in the off season as we immediately see the trade that just goes down.
03:16 --> 03:20 [SPEAKER_00]: All I had to text you was what the fuck is that?
03:20 --> 03:22 [SPEAKER_00]: dot dot dot dot.
03:22 --> 03:26 [SPEAKER_00]: No context didn't have to send a tweet involving the tray or the yeah, the trade nothing.
03:26 --> 03:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I just have to send you the text knowing that I have the notification on knowing that you have the notification on and then the discourse just starts back and forth.
03:34 --> 03:37 [SPEAKER_02]: What's funny is actually I didn't see the notification because
03:37 --> 03:38 [SPEAKER_02]: You know this.
03:38 --> 03:40 [SPEAKER_02]: I haven't had my phone for a whole week.
03:40 --> 03:41 [SPEAKER_02]: It's just like it's just broke.
03:41 --> 03:54 [SPEAKER_02]: It's it's broken It's sitting it's sitting on my on my bedroom bedside table at home dead That we'll get replaced when I get back from Hawaii, but I legitimately haven't had a phone for a week last so notifications
03:54 --> 03:55 [SPEAKER_02]: Notifications do not exist for me.
03:56 --> 03:57 [SPEAKER_02]: I did see it on Twitter.
03:57 --> 04:23 [SPEAKER_02]: I was on Twitter when I saw it before I actually opened your text message But overall the sentiment of this yes, and Jeff makes it so easy because every big Move that ever happens with Jeff pass and gets all caps breaking yeah and not every not every newsbreaker does that Most the ESPN ones do the SPN ones have a pretty concise format for news breaking that is tailored for notifications
04:24 --> 04:25 [SPEAKER_00]: Jeff knows how to get people.
04:26 --> 04:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I will say because he knows how many people have his notifications on and he knows that when he tweets those what eight letters?
04:33 --> 04:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, people are glued to their phone.
04:35 --> 04:39 [SPEAKER_02]: Spinzone, the Jeff passing notification for Josh Nailer broke my phone.
04:40 --> 04:42 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that is when your phone broke.
04:42 --> 04:44 [SPEAKER_02]: It literally died at that moment.
04:46 --> 04:51 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a non-zero chance that's what that's what caused that that's what caused everything to snap.
04:52 --> 04:54 [SPEAKER_02]: But anyways, this treat does affect
04:56 --> 04:57 [SPEAKER_00]: yet does just because this is indivision.
04:58 --> 05:08 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not going to be the reason end all be all the mariners have or have a good or bad season and it's just a player they're going to see or not see in their division a little more often.
05:09 --> 05:16 [SPEAKER_00]: Instead of seeing Marcus semi and a second basement of a sign for a lot of money, help the Rangers win a world series has had some MVP level seasons in his career.
05:17 --> 05:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, as in his mid-30s, going to Queens and instead the Mariners are going to see a lot more of a good bat-to-ball, great play to approach, good defending, left-handed hitting outfield or in Brandon Nemo.
05:31 --> 05:35 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think this makes the Rangers better though, which is a positive for the Mariners.
05:37 --> 05:42 [SPEAKER_02]: It is harder to find good second-based production than it is to find good outfield production.
05:42 --> 05:47 [SPEAKER_02]: And the Rangers don't achieve their ultimate goal, which I thought it was by trading Marcus Simeon.
05:47 --> 05:55 [SPEAKER_02]: Their goal with trading Simeon, in my opinion, was going to save $26 million in 2020.
05:55 --> 05:58 [SPEAKER_02]: 25 or 26, not say $5 million.
05:58 --> 05:59 [SPEAKER_02]: That's how it nets out.
05:59 --> 06:03 [SPEAKER_02]: Brandon name also $20 million each of the next five seasons.
06:04 --> 06:06 [SPEAKER_02]: Marcus Simian is owed $26 million.
06:06 --> 06:08 [SPEAKER_02]: This season he's owed $26 million next season.
06:09 --> 06:13 [SPEAKER_02]: And then the final season of his contract, he's owed $20 million.
06:14 --> 06:21 [SPEAKER_02]: The Rangers don't really save that much, and have now weakened their infield, essentially.
06:22 --> 06:31 [SPEAKER_02]: Now Nimo does plug a hole in the outfield, because the Rangers have Evan Carter, who was solid last year in a little bit less than half a season, Langford is a stud, and he's just going to continue to get better.
06:31 --> 06:40 [SPEAKER_02]: But after that, I mean, they're running out Josh Smith, they were running out Marine
06:40 --> 06:51 [SPEAKER_02]: you remember September and late August, I quite a few words to say about the Ragtag group of Texas Rangers getting them to within half a game of the Mariners that Sam Haggardy.
06:52 --> 06:56 [SPEAKER_02]: Now, you know, they have a real outfiler in Brandon Nemo, which is good for them.
06:56 --> 07:02 [SPEAKER_02]: But it doesn't, it doesn't provide them with that flexibility to make themselves
07:02 --> 07:11 [SPEAKER_02]: that much better and bring themselves closer to the Mariners, just a good thing, and we'll help out the Mariners as they try and win their second straight division crowd next year.
07:11 --> 07:13 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm not, I will officially say this right now.
07:14 --> 07:21 [SPEAKER_02]: This trade is not causing me to be concerned about the Texas Rangers affecting the Mariners playoff chances in 2026.
07:22 --> 07:23 [SPEAKER_00]: No, I'm in the same boat.
07:24 --> 07:26 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't really think the Rangers got better with this deal.
07:27 --> 07:30 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, Marka Semi in the last two years has not been great, offensively.
07:30 --> 07:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's cooked either.
07:32 --> 07:38 [SPEAKER_00]: I still believe in Marka Semi and I still absolutely think he is a type of player who'll turn this thing around.
07:39 --> 07:41 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's just cooked by his mid 30s.
07:42 --> 07:42 [SPEAKER_00]: But,
07:43 --> 07:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Clearly the rangers wanted to shake some things up and they clearly didn't want to keep paying everybody that they had on their payroll so they switched some things up and set them out to Queens.
07:52 --> 07:53 [SPEAKER_00]: They set them to the meds.
07:53 --> 07:57 [SPEAKER_00]: You don't see this that often anymore big league player for big league player trades.
07:57 --> 07:57 [SPEAKER_00]: It's rare.
07:58 --> 07:59 [SPEAKER_02]: It's an NBA trade.
07:59 --> 08:02 [SPEAKER_02]: for sure minus the first round picks.
08:04 --> 08:15 [SPEAKER_00]: What the range of us trade Cory Seager there was that smoke this week like what they actually do that I mean if they do they're really signaling our run is over and worse and we're resetting
08:15 --> 08:17 [SPEAKER_02]: And they're not getting anything real back for Cory.
08:17 --> 08:21 [SPEAKER_02]: Are they like Cory still been really good, but he is owed so much money.
08:22 --> 08:24 [SPEAKER_02]: So much money is not getting younger.
08:24 --> 08:30 [SPEAKER_02]: We were talking pre-recording about how much you could get back for Fernando Totes Jr. if you're the poddraise and we
08:30 --> 08:31 [SPEAKER_02]: A promise.
08:31 --> 08:32 [SPEAKER_02]: We're going to learn.
08:32 --> 08:39 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to talk about the idea of trading for Fernando Totty's Jr on this podcast and the Mariners should do it and what that would look like.
08:39 --> 08:43 [SPEAKER_02]: The thought trees could actually get stuff back for Fernando Totty's because he's so young.
08:43 --> 08:45 [SPEAKER_02]: Corey Seeger is over the age of 30.
08:45 --> 08:49 [SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't have a sterling health record and he makes 32 and a half million dollars a season.
08:49 --> 08:52 [SPEAKER_02]: it's really hard to get anything back for him.
08:52 --> 08:53 [SPEAKER_02]: If you train.
08:53 --> 08:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
08:54 --> 09:01 [SPEAKER_00]: Although you're looking at a guy that the last three seasons and his OPS plus goes from 174 to 149 to 151.
09:01 --> 09:06 [SPEAKER_00]: I would think you could get something significant back for see.
09:06 --> 09:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Not someone we know that money.
09:09 --> 09:22 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, the ranger might have to eat two thirds of it, but if they want to get something back, sure, in which case they will you're right in which case they will get something back, but if they're truly trying to dump money, then you're not dumping as much as you.
09:22 --> 09:49 [SPEAKER_02]: really want to actually give yourselves the upgrade to this season because you're not going to be able to if you if the Rangers eat two thirds of that money, which is only about let's do math about eleven million dollars of that for eleven million dollars you're not making up Corey Seger's production and the same goes that they try and dumb Jacob DeGrom's contract by the way is going to be making nearly forty million dollars for the next three years total per year by the way and he's not getting any younger.
09:49 --> 09:51 [SPEAKER_02]: It's the same idea.
09:51 --> 09:59 [SPEAKER_02]: If you'll eat two thirds of Jacob DeGrom's money to move off of him, you're not replacing Jacob DeGrom's production for $13 million.
10:00 --> 10:01 [SPEAKER_02]: That's not happening.
10:01 --> 10:06 [SPEAKER_02]: So the Rangers are in a tough spot, but they won the World Series.
10:06 --> 10:07 [SPEAKER_02]: So the Mariners have not done.
10:07 --> 10:16 [SPEAKER_02]: So like they took a calculated risk, spending all this money, and while they're not set up great for the future right now, they have the ultimate goal.
10:17 --> 10:17 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they won.
10:19 --> 10:25 [SPEAKER_00]: Why does it feel like if they're going to dump all these contracts that DeGrom's just going to go back to the Metz and Cory Seeger's going to go back to the Dodgers?
10:27 --> 10:28 [SPEAKER_02]: But that's not the Mariners problem.
10:29 --> 10:29 [SPEAKER_00]: No, it's not at all.
10:29 --> 10:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm just saying those are two teams that would absolutely take on money.
10:34 --> 10:36 [SPEAKER_02]: make for good store lines.
10:37 --> 10:37 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
10:38 --> 10:40 [SPEAKER_02]: And then the fit is really, really good.
10:41 --> 10:42 [SPEAKER_02]: Not even just eating money.
10:42 --> 10:44 [SPEAKER_02]: Dodgers don't have a short stop technically.
10:44 --> 10:45 [SPEAKER_02]: You can say mookies.
10:45 --> 10:50 [SPEAKER_02]: They're short stop, but if they want the max value for him, he should be playing out field.
10:50 --> 10:52 [SPEAKER_02]: Not a right field, not tausker Hernandez.
10:52 --> 10:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Tausker Hernandez cannot play right field.
10:55 --> 10:57 [SPEAKER_02]: And then the mats don't have any starting pitchers.
10:58 --> 11:00 [SPEAKER_02]: It doesn't matter how old the gromm is.
11:00 --> 11:01 [SPEAKER_02]: And they can afford it.
11:01 --> 11:01 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
11:02 --> 11:03 [SPEAKER_00]: So that's that's Raid.
11:04 --> 11:07 [SPEAKER_00]: It certainly was not one we were expecting here on this Sunday afternoon, but we got it.
11:08 --> 11:18 [SPEAKER_00]: You don't see Big League player trades that often anymore, but yeah, again, I think this is, I don't want to say a wash, but I just don't see the Ranger significantly upgrading from this.
11:19 --> 11:21 [SPEAKER_02]: That's one Big League for Big League trade.
11:22 --> 11:26 [SPEAKER_02]: Shall we suggest two potential Big League or for Big League or trades?
11:28 --> 11:31 [SPEAKER_00]: How about, I think that's what we've got dialed up on this episode, so let's dive into it.
11:32 --> 11:39 [SPEAKER_02]: How about a potential Mariners Major League starter to the Red Sox for either Jaren Doran or Willier or Brayou?
11:42 --> 11:45 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, so we're just jumping right into the idea of a starter.
11:45 --> 11:49 [SPEAKER_02]: I thought maybe we were going to get to that point, but I thought that was a good transition.
11:50 --> 11:58 [SPEAKER_02]: Because that just to lay it out flat before this, you're thinking you're talking yourself into potentially doing either of these two ideas.
11:59 --> 12:05 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's lay out the price right at the start, and then we'll make the case whether or not you should pay that price as we go.
12:06 --> 12:10 [SPEAKER_02]: The price for Jared Doran or Rollier or Braille will be a mariner starting pitcher.
12:10 --> 12:13 [SPEAKER_02]: That is in the big leagues, and I'll be one of your four homegrown guys.
12:14 --> 12:15 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
12:15 --> 12:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, there's no doubt, and really it's probably more like two or three, because they're not going to trade Brian Wu, no, no, and yeah, they're not going to trade Wu.
12:28 --> 12:41 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's talk about the cases for training each of the three at the, like once we actually get to the meat of yes or no of this, let's go player by player here and let's start off with Jared Randran, I also want to thank the mailback question that.
12:41 --> 12:47 [SPEAKER_02]: Spurned this conversation from Friday's episode for us to talk a little bit more about it today.
12:47 --> 12:48 [SPEAKER_02]: Root, it's an interesting discussion.
12:49 --> 12:53 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of cases for and there's a lot of cases against for this as well.
12:53 --> 12:55 [SPEAKER_02]: So let's start off with Jared Doran.
12:55 --> 13:00 [SPEAKER_02]: Jared Doran, of these two players, the more complete offensive profile.
13:01 --> 13:02 [SPEAKER_02]: He's got more tools.
13:03 --> 13:05 [SPEAKER_02]: He's had better overall seasons.
13:05 --> 13:10 [SPEAKER_02]: and he would make the Mariners better if you acquired him because he does a lot of things well.
13:10 --> 13:15 [SPEAKER_02]: He's as close to a five to a player without actually being a five to a player as you can get.
13:15 --> 13:16 [SPEAKER_02]: Is that fair?
13:16 --> 13:17 [SPEAKER_02]: It's 2024.
13:17 --> 13:19 [SPEAKER_02]: He had a five to a caliber season.
13:21 --> 13:23 [SPEAKER_02]: But he's not my trout.
13:23 --> 13:24 [SPEAKER_02]: Five to a caliber player.
13:24 --> 13:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Does that make sense?
13:25 --> 13:30 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I don't think he quite has the raw power to be a true five tool player.
13:30 --> 13:38 [SPEAKER_00]: Because when you think about five tool players, I think you think about guys that have significantly more power than Jaren Durand does 30 to 40 homers more like
13:39 --> 13:40 [SPEAKER_00]: I'd say more like 30.
13:41 --> 13:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
13:42 --> 13:44 [SPEAKER_02]: And during 2020, Homer hit her.
13:44 --> 13:45 [SPEAKER_00]: Exactly.
13:45 --> 13:55 [SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't have the raw power of a lot of guys that you think about in the Mike Trout category of five to a player where it's significant raw power.
13:55 --> 13:57 [SPEAKER_00]: Jared Arannell hit 20 to 25 Homer's a year.
13:58 --> 13:59 [SPEAKER_00]: Actually,
13:59 --> 14:00 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't even know if he's hit 25.
14:00 --> 14:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I think 24 is his career high.
14:02 --> 14:03 [SPEAKER_00]: So he's like a 20 home or a year guy.
14:03 --> 14:05 [SPEAKER_00]: This past year I hit under 20.
14:05 --> 14:06 [SPEAKER_00]: But he does everything else.
14:06 --> 14:08 [SPEAKER_00]: He runs really well.
14:08 --> 14:10 [SPEAKER_00]: You know he can play the field when he's at his best.
14:10 --> 14:12 [SPEAKER_00]: He certainly plays left field well.
14:12 --> 14:14 [SPEAKER_00]: And he hits for average.
14:14 --> 14:17 [SPEAKER_00]: So there are tools about his game that really check out.
14:18 --> 14:22 [SPEAKER_00]: But I don't know if he's ever going to repeat 2024.
14:23 --> 14:49 [SPEAKER_02]: No, but you can marvel at the fact that he had a quote down year from 2024 this past season where instead of having a 130, one WRC plus he had a 11 and instead of having a 6.8 F4 season, it was still 3.9, 3.9 would have made during the ram the third most valuable mariner this past season by a pretty clear margin, only behind Julio and behind Cal Raleigh.
14:50 --> 14:51 [SPEAKER_02]: like that's objectively valuable.
14:52 --> 14:55 [SPEAKER_02]: There's so many things he does to provide value.
14:56 --> 14:59 [SPEAKER_02]: The defense I got a little wrong on Friday's episode.
14:59 --> 15:01 [SPEAKER_02]: I said, Darren Durance defense was really volatile.
15:02 --> 15:03 [SPEAKER_02]: I'll tell you what is volatile.
15:03 --> 15:05 [SPEAKER_02]: His center field defense.
15:05 --> 15:09 [SPEAKER_02]: His center field defense is very up and down.
15:09 --> 15:17 [SPEAKER_02]: He had 17 defensive run saved in 2024, which was very, very, very, very good.
15:17 --> 15:23 [SPEAKER_02]: In 2025, did not play quite as much centerfield because the Red Sox mostly puts it on rough fail out there.
15:24 --> 15:26 [SPEAKER_02]: His defensive run saved was negative too.
15:26 --> 15:28 [SPEAKER_02]: That's a 19 run difference.
15:28 --> 15:29 [SPEAKER_02]: 19 runs.
15:30 --> 15:38 [SPEAKER_02]: If you look at just left field specifically though, it was 11 last year in about as twice as many innings as this year, where he had six defensive run saved in the outfield.
15:38 --> 15:43 [SPEAKER_02]: On a rate basis for defensive run saved as a metric, it's about the same.
15:44 --> 15:45 [SPEAKER_02]: You do see these wonders in the outfield.
15:45 --> 15:46 [SPEAKER_02]: Don't get us wrong.
15:46 --> 15:48 [SPEAKER_02]: He misses some flyballs.
15:48 --> 15:49 [SPEAKER_02]: He takes some bad routes.
15:50 --> 15:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Sometimes he gets in his head out there in the outfield and that can cause him to fuck up.
15:54 --> 15:57 [SPEAKER_02]: But overall it's good.
15:57 --> 16:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Overall it's good in the outfield and on top of the hitting the ball on the gap, hitting for a high average or getting on base or stealing bases or creating extra value by taking extra bases on the base paths.
16:10 --> 16:12 [SPEAKER_02]: He has a lot of paths to being a valuable baseball player.
16:13 --> 16:17 [SPEAKER_02]: The only other guy on the Mariners that does that is Julio.
16:18 --> 16:22 [SPEAKER_02]: Has everyone else has some sort of physical limitation that keeps
16:23 --> 16:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Julio's another good example of somebody who's much more a true five-tool guy when everything's clicking.
16:28 --> 16:29 [SPEAKER_00]: Then, Duran.
16:29 --> 16:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I was a little off on Duran's 24-home run total.
16:32 --> 16:35 [SPEAKER_00]: In 2024, I mean, I think I said he had 24-homers, he hit 21.
16:35 --> 16:42 [SPEAKER_00]: So really, his powers more like JP Crawford, I would say, where you know JP can lean into a baseball.
16:43 --> 16:45 [SPEAKER_00]: but he doesn't leave the yard at a crazy rate.
16:45 --> 16:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Neither does the ramp.
16:46 --> 16:52 [SPEAKER_00]: But Jairan to be fair hits a lot more balls in the gap and creates extra bases a lot easier than JP Crawford does.
16:52 --> 16:54 [SPEAKER_00]: And that has to do some with his bat, some with his speed.
16:55 --> 16:58 [SPEAKER_00]: There is more ceiling there by a lot with Jairan to ramp.
16:58 --> 17:01 [SPEAKER_02]: Less raw power, but that's game power right there.
17:01 --> 17:07 [SPEAKER_02]: There's only four players in Major League Base while who had 150 extra base hits the last four seasons.
17:07 --> 17:09 [SPEAKER_02]: And two of those guys are show-hain air judge.
17:11 --> 17:14 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, look, Jiren Derandon is best season back in 24.
17:14 --> 17:18 [SPEAKER_00]: He led the league in doubles and in triples, and then this pastary led the league in triples again.
17:19 --> 17:20 [SPEAKER_00]: He creates extra bases.
17:20 --> 17:21 [SPEAKER_00]: There's no doubt.
17:22 --> 17:30 [SPEAKER_00]: I would also acknowledge that this is a Platoon hitter, which the Mariners already have two of, Platoon hitting left-hand abats.
17:30 --> 17:37 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I'm not exactly comparing all three in terms of, am I saying, Jiren Derand is an equal level of player to Luke Rayleigh and Dom Canzone?
17:37 --> 17:40 [SPEAKER_00]: No, he's obviously better than those guys,
17:41 --> 17:49 [SPEAKER_00]: It is a situation where you're probably going to have to take them out of the line of a decent amount against left handed pitching, or you'll just play them for his defense and knowing your sacrificing some offense that day.
17:49 --> 17:56 [SPEAKER_00]: You want the exact numbers, Durano PS-852 against righties this past year, but he OPS-600 against lefties.
17:56 --> 18:09 [SPEAKER_00]: So again, it's a very good athlete who does a lot of things very well, but if we want to start to balance some of the gerendoram positives and some of the gerendoram concerns, this is
18:10 --> 18:31 [SPEAKER_02]: and there's nothing fluky about this platoon his strikeout and walk numbers against right is 23% strikeout rate 10% walk rate which you would take every day of the week against lefties that strikeout rate spikes to 27% and is walk rate plummets to five so not only
18:31 --> 18:46 [SPEAKER_02]: or is the raw production worse, not only is he by WRC plus over twice as good against varieties than he is against lefties, but he's also just flat out not in control of the counties, not in control of the abat and he's not comfortable against lefties.
18:46 --> 18:48 [SPEAKER_02]: And he's 27.
18:48 --> 18:55 [SPEAKER_02]: if he was going to all of a sudden figure out hitting against lefties, he probably would have done it by now.
18:55 --> 19:00 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to see if I can get the get his splits by year.
19:00 --> 19:03 [SPEAKER_02]: So I have a better better idea of that.
19:05 --> 19:17 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I would say while you're talking about that, I think it's fair to say and maybe this is a blanketed obvious statement, but if you're going to trade for
19:18 --> 19:19 [SPEAKER_00]: which is what I figured.
19:19 --> 19:31 [SPEAKER_00]: If you're going to trade for gerendoran though, you are most likely rerouting one of it's not both Luke Rayleigh and Dom canzone elsewhere because you can't have four right fielders on the roster.
19:31 --> 19:34 [SPEAKER_00]: You can't have Doran canzone Rayleigh and Roblese all on the roster.
19:34 --> 20:01 [SPEAKER_00]: somebody's probably getting rerouted elsewhere could somebody go back to the Red Sox in this deal sure if if Boston likes one of it would likely be one of the left-handed hitting right-fielders because both those guys have significantly more control than Robles does and it's another left-handed bat so you're essentially swapping a left-handed bat for a left-handed bat but I think if you're trading for Doran somebody's got to go either back to the Red Sox in the seal or be rerouted somewhere else
20:01 --> 20:05 [SPEAKER_02]: And also, if you're trading for Jared and Ryan, are you seriously gonna platoon him?
20:07 --> 20:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Even if it's the right decision, even if it's the right decision.
20:09 --> 20:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Do you think optically that would look good?
20:13 --> 20:14 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think you kind of have to.
20:15 --> 20:17 [SPEAKER_00]: You can't run his 600 OPS out there against lefties.
20:17 --> 20:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, you might be able to give him some starts against lefties, but he can't play 160 games.
20:23 --> 20:25 [SPEAKER_00]: Not if you want to get the best version of Jared and Ryan.
20:25 --> 20:28 [SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, there's a lot more righties than lefties in the game.
20:30 --> 20:45 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, yeah, now I was I was I was buying in so much more on this gerundoran idea until I just saw those lefty splits It just doesn't really fit for what the mayor is gonna forward in the outfield
20:45 --> 20:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, and this is what I was getting at here.
20:47 --> 20:50 [SPEAKER_00]: We're going to get to our final conclusions later about this whole idea.
20:51 --> 20:55 [SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, this is one of the first things that jumped out about both Duran and William Ray.
20:55 --> 20:57 [SPEAKER_00]: And we'll dive in on William here in a couple minutes.
20:58 --> 21:01 [SPEAKER_00]: Both these guys are platoon hitting lefties.
21:02 --> 21:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, let me say it again.
21:03 --> 21:08 [SPEAKER_00]: Do I think both these players have higher upside than the two lefties and right field for the Mariners right?
21:08 --> 21:15 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, yeah, because William is a better defender, Duran is obviously a better defender.
21:15 --> 21:28 [SPEAKER_00]: But how much better can each of these guys get you in terms of bringing up your overall value of the team and overall value of your win total paired to the two guys you have right now?
21:28 --> 21:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Luke Raylee, Dom Canzone, and Victor Robles, combine those three.
21:32 --> 21:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Combined for about one and a half wins this past year.
21:35 --> 21:37 [SPEAKER_00]: Now what do those guys do?
21:38 --> 21:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, what would Jared Durand do if it was all him out there?
21:41 --> 22:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, let's let's say he does more what he did this past year in in 25, which is not his absolute 100th percentile year like he had a season ago, but it's probably more who he's gonna be throughout the rest of his prime He's about a four-win player, which is really good So you're improving by two and a half wins if you were to sacrifice everything you've got right now and right feel for Jared Durand about two and a half wins
22:04 --> 22:22 [SPEAKER_00]: is that worth potentially giving up one of the starters from your rotation and having to pay them the eventual money he's going to make an arbitration and oh by the way for this year you're likely not saving any money through this trade if you take on gerend around who's set to make a little over seven million bucks this year.
22:23 --> 22:34 [SPEAKER_00]: you're probably adding to the payroll, which is fine, but you have to understand that you may have to sacrifice and spot to elsewhere because if you were going to trade a starter back, it's probably somebody who's not making a ton right now.
22:35 --> 22:38 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's summarize this Doran idea.
22:38 --> 22:41 [SPEAKER_02]: Just brief before again, we're not saying yes or no yet.
22:41 --> 22:42 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's summarize this.
22:43 --> 22:51 [SPEAKER_02]: You would get roughly the same splits left right from what your roster currently is for your right fielders.
22:52 --> 22:55 [SPEAKER_02]: What do you have Doran or you have Dom Kinzone and Lou Grayley out there?
22:56 --> 23:04 [SPEAKER_02]: You would roughly have the same handiness split facing a righty versus facing a lefty.
23:04 --> 23:05 [SPEAKER_02]: Yes?
23:05 --> 23:07 [SPEAKER_00]: Just about roughly.
23:07 --> 23:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
23:08 --> 23:09 [SPEAKER_02]: You would be better base running.
23:10 --> 23:11 [SPEAKER_02]: You would be better on defense.
23:13 --> 23:27 [SPEAKER_02]: Your the offense would though improve when you're facing right is because gerund ran facing right is is brings more to the table than Luke Rayleigh a Dom can zone combined as good as can zone was for a couple months this year.
23:28 --> 23:31 [SPEAKER_02]: What gerund ran does is better so you would get better in that aspect.
23:32 --> 23:42 [SPEAKER_02]: And you would add money to the payroll is what you would do right and to be fair and right and let me add the last thing and you'd be without one of your forehome grown starters.
23:44 --> 23:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Now to be fair and anybody saying that cam zone had an OPS that was through the roof this past year.
23:48 --> 23:50 [SPEAKER_00]: He did you're right and it was higher than gerendorands.
23:51 --> 23:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's acknowledge that for anybody that would say to this idea how could you even entertain this.
23:57 --> 24:00 [SPEAKER_00]: Canzone was great offensively last year and he was.
24:00 --> 24:18 [SPEAKER_00]: But when we say Doran's a better offensive player than Camzone, there's more of a track record, there's more elements to Doran's game, and by being the athlete that Doran is, there's so much more value he adds overall, because as we've talked about with Camzone, he is going to liver die in his vaguely career by what he does against right-handed pitching.
24:19 --> 24:22 [SPEAKER_00]: He has to not just hit righties, but he has to do significant damage against righties.
24:23 --> 24:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Like he did this past year for a couple months, because when Camzone's not doing that, he doesn't hit lefties.
24:28 --> 24:36 [SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't run, he doesn't walk, his approach is hit or miss at best, and he doesn't really play the field.
24:37 --> 24:41 [SPEAKER_00]: So he is going to live and die by what he does against right hand pitching and the damage he does.
24:41 --> 24:44 [SPEAKER_00]: There are more elements to derands game that make him a better overall player.
24:45 --> 24:48 [SPEAKER_02]: The floor with Jiren Duran is so much higher.
24:48 --> 24:53 [SPEAKER_02]: Jiren Duran would be a two-in player if he had a WRC plus of a hundred.
24:53 --> 24:54 [SPEAKER_02]: He might even be higher than that.
24:54 --> 24:56 [SPEAKER_02]: Based on everything else he does.
24:56 --> 25:02 [SPEAKER_02]: If Dom can't zone as a WRC plus of a hundred, his war is zero.
25:03 --> 25:22 [SPEAKER_02]: I did not make it if yeah if not if not negative right that's the difference between these two and that's what the price comes in a play but we'll get to the price at the end of course last thing on Doran because we mentioned this on Friday's episode and we'll bring it back up again do the past character concerns of jaren Doran cause any issue
25:24 --> 25:26 [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to have to factor into some extent.
25:27 --> 25:37 [SPEAKER_00]: There's no doubt it's going to be something that is talked about inside those mariners front office buildings and the inside those cubicles when they're discussing the idea of this deal if it comes to the table.
25:38 --> 25:40 [SPEAKER_00]: It like will it stop a trade?
25:40 --> 25:43 [SPEAKER_00]: We don't know, we don't have any way to know that for sure.
25:43 --> 25:50 [SPEAKER_00]: But I would bet you anything that I have to my name that when discussing this idea, if it hasn't already been discussed,
25:51 --> 26:13 [SPEAKER_00]: there has been a bullet point on their list of talking points when going through this is gerendorans clubhouse presence and who he is in terms of the character of a baseball player there's no doubt that plays a factor into it and there's no doubt that it's being discussed there is no way the mariners are any team are discussing gerendoran without at least talking about this side of it
26:13 --> 26:32 [SPEAKER_02]: and that the mayor has been very consistent that they like high character or at least publicly high character players whether they acquire with a sign that they've been pretty consistent about that i mean i mean look they had jessie winger but i guess there was no way to really know it was just weird
26:33 --> 26:35 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he just, I mean, he didn't, he was a bad person.
26:35 --> 26:36 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying he had.
26:36 --> 26:38 [SPEAKER_00]: He just, he did not gel in that clubhouse.
26:39 --> 26:42 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think his work at the totally leveled up to the rest of the team.
26:42 --> 26:48 [SPEAKER_00]: And he didn't seem to like get along extremely well with that entire clubhouse.
26:48 --> 26:53 [SPEAKER_02]: There was nothing he did off the field or something that had nothing to do with baseball that made the fans dislike him.
26:54 --> 26:54 [SPEAKER_02]: I'll say that.
26:55 --> 26:58 [SPEAKER_02]: Everything the fans dislike him for was on the baseball field.
26:59 --> 26:59 [SPEAKER_02]: Is that fair?
27:00 --> 27:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, the defense, the lack of offense, the, I mean, yeah, just about all of it.
27:05 --> 27:23 [SPEAKER_02]: Meanwhile, the main beef that I think a lot of our listeners would have with trading for Jared and that has nothing to do with the baseball field is a certain word he used on the field that people feel is just flat out unacceptable for any, any adult playing a game of baseball that you just, you can't do and that would be a deal breaker for a lot of people.
27:24 --> 27:28 [SPEAKER_02]: And while maybe that's a deal breaker alone for the Mariners, where they're like,
27:28 --> 27:54 [SPEAKER_02]: If you, at this point of your career, still think that you can, like, on a field with mics and cameras, have no problems just going bam, and saying that, then how do we trust your judgment?
27:54 --> 27:56 [SPEAKER_00]: issues pop up throughout the court of the year.
27:57 --> 28:06 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he talked about in that Red Sox documentary about a bunch of things, including how sometimes he can let things spiral a little bit when he gets in his own head too much.
28:06 --> 28:08 [SPEAKER_00]: We've seen it happen with his defense.
28:08 --> 28:12 [SPEAKER_00]: We've seen it happen at the plate a little bit that Red Sox documentary on Netflix was really good, by the way.
28:12 --> 28:18 [SPEAKER_00]: But there was a lot of Jared and Iran stuff in there, and one of the things that he talked about a lot is he admitted
28:18 --> 28:22 [SPEAKER_00]: that sometimes he can let the mental side of the game get the best of them.
28:22 --> 28:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Which look, I mean, it takes a lot for an athlete to be able to admit that and and be forward with that, which he deserves a lot of credit for, but if you are talking about baseball production and trading potentially a lot to get this guy,
28:34 --> 28:42 [SPEAKER_00]: There is a talking point to that, too, is our things going to spiral on him at any point of the year when the team really needs them.
28:43 --> 28:53 [SPEAKER_02]: What happens if we trade for you, we make we are putting this great marketing campaign together where you are the next star of this team and you can't handle the spotlight.
28:53 --> 29:02 [SPEAKER_02]: Jared Durin right now is in a spot where he is one of the best red socks players, but he's not even the most popular guy in the outfield anymore.
29:02 --> 29:07 [SPEAKER_00]: No, there's a, there's a certain 21 year old phenom embossed and who's about to be the face of that franchise for the next decade.
29:08 --> 29:20 [SPEAKER_02]: So the, the pressure is still there, but it's not there as much as it was if Geron was number one on the Red Sox roster in terms of here's our best, here's our best players.
29:20 --> 29:38 [SPEAKER_02]: In Seattle, the pressure might not be the same, but if you're trading some of them, if you're trading George Kirby away, for Jared and Iran, are you okay with making that deal for someone who could potentially be mentally fragile in a moment and let that affect his season?
29:38 --> 29:39 [SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot you have to take into that.
29:39 --> 29:40 [SPEAKER_00]: There's no doubt about it.
29:41 --> 29:50 [SPEAKER_00]: For anybody, for anybody who didn't get the reference, the 21 year old phenom, I'm referencing is Roman Anthony, just in case anybody didn't get the reference off first hand.
29:51 --> 30:01 [SPEAKER_00]: But yes, there is a lot you have to take into this trade and it's not just the on field production and the on field production has question marks in its own right with the platoon splits and with
30:01 --> 30:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, a bunch of different things.
30:02 --> 30:07 [SPEAKER_00]: He's also a pretty decent swing in misguide, like there's real whiff in his game.
30:07 --> 30:08 [SPEAKER_00]: That's another aspect.
30:09 --> 30:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Jair and Doran's issues aren't unique only to him.
30:11 --> 30:20 [SPEAKER_02]: There are plenty of other players in Major League Baseball who go through the same issue he does, but not everyone admits that in a public setting.
30:20 --> 30:26 [SPEAKER_02]: And once you admit that and it's out there in the open, the team can 100% use that against you.
30:26 --> 30:27 [SPEAKER_02]: There are players.
30:27 --> 30:49 [SPEAKER_02]: that teams have traded for, I mean, Jesse Winker could be the example there, while where, you know, maybe the Mariners are unaware of some of these concerns that happen and pop up with him until he enters the Mariners Clubhouse, but Jaren Doran talks about this openly on Netflix, which it's great and I commend him for doing that, but when we're talking about trade leverage, that can be used against you.
30:50 --> 30:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I don't want to downplay that.
30:52 --> 30:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, during the ran, having the internal confidence to be open about that stuff, it's a big deal.
30:56 --> 30:58 [SPEAKER_00]: Because a lot of baseball players won't.
30:58 --> 30:59 [SPEAKER_00]: It's a very big deal.
30:59 --> 31:08 [SPEAKER_00]: But when you're just talking about the X's and O's of a baseball trade, it weren't like, again, we come in gerendoran a ton for doing that.
31:08 --> 31:18 [SPEAKER_00]: But when you were talking about GM's and baseball executives, talking about spreadsheets and X's and O's of trade value, that may be something that plays into it in their minds.
31:19 --> 31:21 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's talk about the other outfielder for the Red Sox.
31:22 --> 31:26 [SPEAKER_02]: Not all these extra points to talk about, but still an interesting profile to discuss.
31:26 --> 31:27 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's while you're a brave.
31:28 --> 31:32 [SPEAKER_02]: Summary, the ceiling is not as high offensively.
31:32 --> 31:34 [SPEAKER_02]: The defense is much better.
31:34 --> 31:39 [SPEAKER_02]: No off the field issues that we know of to talk about.
31:39 --> 31:42 [SPEAKER_02]: He's got an extra year of control and he's one year younger than Jaren Duran.
31:43 --> 31:45 [SPEAKER_02]: But he would also cost you a starter.
31:46 --> 31:52 [SPEAKER_02]: The floor is not quite as high, the ceiling is also not quite as high, and there's less external factors.
31:52 --> 31:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Is that worth trading a starter?
31:56 --> 32:02 [SPEAKER_00]: So if you want to highlight Willier Brayou here for a minute, I mean, there are parts of his game that are pretty fascinating.
32:03 --> 32:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Number one, I think he does have more true raw power than Jaren Durand does, but maybe not as much game power because he can't do all the base paths with Jaren Durand can do.
32:13 --> 32:21 [SPEAKER_00]: Willier Brayou hit 22 homers this past year, he slugs 470, the guy's got real pop, and by the way, he draws his walks, but
32:21 --> 32:27 [SPEAKER_00]: This is another Platoon bat that's got some fairly drastic splits against Wrighty's versus lefties.
32:28 --> 32:32 [SPEAKER_00]: He also had a tale of two halves last year where he totally fell off in the second half of the year.
32:32 --> 32:37 [SPEAKER_00]: And like you said, this is somebody with four years of control.
32:38 --> 32:41 [SPEAKER_00]: So he's a good player and also plays good defense.
32:41 --> 32:49 [SPEAKER_00]: But when you're talking about four years of control for somebody where the Red Sox would almost certainly say to get us to give up this guy we want a big league starter.
32:49 --> 32:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Are you comfortable doing that?
32:51 --> 32:58 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if William or Bray you raises the overall win total of your team if you were to have to trade one of your starters to get them.
32:59 --> 33:00 [SPEAKER_00]: You might lose out.
33:01 --> 33:02 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
33:02 --> 33:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Especially if Kirby has a, let's use Kirby as the example as a fully healthy season, a fully healthy season of George Kirby.
33:10 --> 33:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Straight off the numbers is worth more than 2.4 fan graphs wins.
33:14 --> 33:14 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
33:15 --> 33:17 [SPEAKER_00]: And to be fair on William or Bray,
33:17 --> 33:23 [SPEAKER_00]: really good defender, and when we say really good, he was in the 94th percentile of the league this year by Alts above average.
33:23 --> 33:27 [SPEAKER_00]: He is a really good defender with a strong arm and he plays right field.
33:27 --> 33:30 [SPEAKER_00]: So if you're looking to upgrade right field, he plays right field.
33:30 --> 33:32 [SPEAKER_00]: We didn't even really mention that with Jaron Duran.
33:32 --> 33:34 [SPEAKER_00]: He is mostly a left fielder.
33:34 --> 33:44 [SPEAKER_00]: So if you were to trade for Duran, either he's going to have to go play right where he's barely played, or you're going to have to move Randy arose around at a right where he's also barely played.
33:44 --> 33:53 [SPEAKER_00]: but what I took away from William's profile is he's basically Dom Canzone, except he's just a way better defender and has had a little more sustained success.
33:54 --> 33:55 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he walks a little bit more, too.
33:55 --> 34:00 [SPEAKER_00]: But, sorry, so that was the overall, which was, yeah, draws more walks.
34:01 --> 34:10 [SPEAKER_00]: but and plays better defense, but overall these are left handed hitters who play right field who hit right handed pitching, willier is just a better defender with a better arm.
34:10 --> 34:13 [SPEAKER_00]: But Kim's own was about a one and a half win player last year.
34:13 --> 34:15 [SPEAKER_00]: A bra you was about two and a half.
34:15 --> 34:27 [SPEAKER_00]: So, is adding one extra ward or right field, worth trading an arm for, and deciding you want to totally overhaul your right field spot for that guy.
34:27 --> 34:40 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if it is, and then think about it this way too, would you be okay trading a starter for somebody who's not one of the three best outfielders on their own team?
34:42 --> 34:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, which is crazy to say in its own right, because if you're counting Sadon Raffiella as an outfielder, which most people are at this point, even though you can play a bunch of different spots.
34:51 --> 34:59 [SPEAKER_00]: that's crazy because the red socks have kind of been on the line of mediocrity to slightly above average for the last few years now.
35:00 --> 35:03 [SPEAKER_00]: But their outfield has four really good outfielders.
35:04 --> 35:04 [SPEAKER_00]: They just can't pitch.
35:06 --> 35:12 [SPEAKER_02]: So which is why this trade they would think the mariners could line this up well for them right in this in this scenario.
35:13 --> 35:17 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think for Willier, Brey, you can trade a starter.
35:17 --> 35:19 [SPEAKER_00]: Durand, you can hold the percent in the same boat.
35:20 --> 35:22 [SPEAKER_00]: And look, I like Willier, Brey, who's a player.
35:22 --> 35:22 [SPEAKER_00]: He's good.
35:22 --> 35:25 [SPEAKER_00]: By the way, crazy little Willier, Brey, you nugget.
35:26 --> 35:29 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, he absolutely hit the piss at a curveballs this past year.
35:30 --> 35:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Like this man slug 900 against curveballs for 2025.
35:33 --> 35:35 [SPEAKER_02]: How many did he face?
35:36 --> 35:38 [SPEAKER_00]: It was actually a decent portion.
35:38 --> 35:41 [SPEAKER_00]: It was not like he saw Kerbals 2% of the time.
35:41 --> 35:44 [SPEAKER_00]: Like he saw a healthy dose of Kerbals and pissed on him all year.
35:44 --> 35:45 [SPEAKER_00]: He had a 900.
35:46 --> 35:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, did I say 900 OPS?
35:47 --> 35:48 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm sorry.
35:48 --> 35:49 [SPEAKER_00]: 900 OPS.
35:49 --> 35:50 [SPEAKER_02]: No, you said 900, it's like.
35:51 --> 35:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 900's log against Kerbals, which is crazy.
35:55 --> 36:04 [SPEAKER_00]: So he's a good player, but again, had an OPS under 700 and the second half is a platoon bat, would cost you a starter,
36:05 --> 36:07 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think this one lines up for the Mariners.
36:08 --> 36:12 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's talk to Package now, because we got a pretty good idea for both of these players.
36:13 --> 36:16 [SPEAKER_02]: For Jaron Duran, just give me a yes or no.
36:17 --> 36:19 [SPEAKER_02]: We'll go for each of these players.
36:19 --> 36:22 [SPEAKER_02]: For Jaron Duran, would you trade George Kirby?
36:25 --> 36:26 [SPEAKER_00]: Can we circle back to him?
36:26 --> 36:31 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, where I lean is more on the no side, but let's circle back to him.
36:31 --> 36:34 [SPEAKER_02]: Would you trade Logan Gilbert for Gerundran?
36:34 --> 36:35 [SPEAKER_02]: No.
36:36 --> 36:39 [SPEAKER_02]: Would you trade Brian Wu for Gerundran?
36:39 --> 36:40 [SPEAKER_00]: No, let me just stop you, mid sentence.
36:40 --> 36:42 [SPEAKER_00]: No, absolutely not.
36:42 --> 36:45 [SPEAKER_02]: Would you trade Bryce Miller for Gerundran?
36:46 --> 36:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Probably not, and I know Bryce didn't have a great year this past year, but again, he was so injured, and he's got so much club control.
36:53 --> 36:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Like he's still got four years of control.
36:56 --> 37:00 [SPEAKER_00]: When he's already essentially almost pitched the free full season and seasons and the big leagues.
37:01 --> 37:03 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's go to the minor leagues.
37:03 --> 37:06 [SPEAKER_02]: Would you trade Ryan Sloan for Jaren Derem?
37:10 --> 37:17 [SPEAKER_00]: This is where it gets hard with prospects because you know that Sloan's ceiling might be the highest in the organization among any pitcher.
37:18 --> 37:22 [SPEAKER_00]: But he's a little further away.
37:23 --> 37:37 [SPEAKER_02]: Again, you never know with a prospect and if you want to counter argument with the Red Sox even want a Ryan Sloan, I would think they want if they're trading Jaren Durant away, they're trying to reshuffle their resources on the roster to win this next year after just making the playoffs.
37:38 --> 37:39 [SPEAKER_02]: Like they traded Rafi.
37:40 --> 37:46 [SPEAKER_02]: to to to essentially reorganize the roster to better suit themselves to make the playoffs.
37:46 --> 37:54 [SPEAKER_02]: And trading gerundoran for a prospect who's a year and a half at least away doesn't help them make the playoffs next year.
37:54 --> 37:57 [SPEAKER_02]: Now here's another option.
37:59 --> 38:03 [SPEAKER_02]: Would you trade gerangelo sanger for gerundoran?
38:03 --> 38:08 [SPEAKER_00]: This is where I probably start to dip into more of the, yes, category.
38:08 --> 38:11 [SPEAKER_00]: And obviously, he's much closer to the big leagues and can help the Red Sox.
38:11 --> 38:14 [SPEAKER_02]: Would you trade Kate Anderson for Sharon Doran?
38:18 --> 38:21 [SPEAKER_00]: See, Kate is a chance to be really good, right?
38:21 --> 38:25 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think people say that his ceiling is more like a number two starter.
38:25 --> 38:30 [SPEAKER_00]: And number two starters are really, really, really, good, big league starters.
38:30 --> 38:33 [SPEAKER_00]: All I'm getting out with Kate Anderson
38:35 --> 38:39 [SPEAKER_00]: So, where do you lean on Kate Anderson?
38:42 --> 38:44 [SPEAKER_02]: For Sharon Duran, I would do it.
38:46 --> 38:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
38:46 --> 38:48 [SPEAKER_00]: I can be talked into either side of that argument.
38:48 --> 38:50 [SPEAKER_02]: Odds are here so I think about this right now.
38:51 --> 38:55 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think Kate Anderson is gonna be a big leager in 2026.
38:55 --> 39:23 [SPEAKER_02]: the value alone that gerend ran will provide for you at a seven million dollar contract platoon aside for you all kt Anderson is most likely developing in the minors outweighs whatever you know the disappointment you have in the future if he comes up with the red socks he ends up being really really really good but you know what else you have you have Ryan Sloan and gerend slow sanger and hopefully an extended Logan Gilbert and extended Brian will and you can figure out the fifth rotation spot
39:24 --> 39:39 [SPEAKER_00]: in the end your rotation still ends up really fucking good anyways right and you have jaren doran yeah yeah so when you dip into more of the prospect pool i think the mariner's listen much more here when you're talking about trading big league starters
39:39 --> 39:41 [SPEAKER_00]: man that makes it hard especially in 2026.
39:42 --> 39:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Honestly, the one that might warrant the most conversation in the Big League starters would be Kirby because Kirby and Iran have the same amount of club control.
39:50 --> 39:51 [SPEAKER_00]: It's three years.
39:51 --> 39:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Do you think Kirby is going to sign the extension?
39:53 --> 39:56 [SPEAKER_00]: We've always said he feels least likely the bunch to do so.
39:56 --> 40:02 [SPEAKER_00]: And, unfortunately, on George Kirby, he still hasn't really taken that step from good to great.
40:03 --> 40:06 [SPEAKER_00]: He hasn't taken the Logan Gilbert step that we saw in 2024.
40:06 --> 40:10 [SPEAKER_00]: He hasn't taken the step that we saw from Ryan Wu in 2025.
40:10 --> 40:13 [SPEAKER_00]: He's been good and had good years, but he is not.
40:13 --> 40:15 [SPEAKER_00]: He still doesn't miss a ton of bats.
40:15 --> 40:17 [SPEAKER_00]: He still doesn't have that true outpitch.
40:17 --> 40:20 [SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes starts to get away from him when he's too much in the zone.
40:21 --> 40:21 [SPEAKER_00]: So,
40:22 --> 40:25 [SPEAKER_00]: But there's more of an argument that you could listen to on that one.
40:26 --> 40:32 [SPEAKER_02]: He still hasn't even taken a gerundoran like outlier good, see one good season and then back to the norm yet.
40:33 --> 40:33 [SPEAKER_02]: He hasn't done that.
40:34 --> 40:35 [SPEAKER_02]: No.
40:36 --> 40:52 [SPEAKER_02]: And you and we're not sure if he signs an extension, which if he's not going to sign an extension and you'd rather sign Logan Gilbert and you've decided between those two you're signing one of them and Logan's the one you made your mind up on, well Kirby's going to have to get traded either.
40:52 --> 40:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Serious return package.
40:54 --> 41:10 [SPEAKER_02]: The one year of control for a guy who's good, but not insane You're talking less than Corbin burn Scott and Corbin burns as we talked about when discussing the Terkscubal situation was Joey Ortiz and Deal Hall, right?
41:10 --> 41:10 [SPEAKER_02]: Do I have that right?
41:11 --> 41:19 [SPEAKER_02]: Yes, so they're like they're oh like they're solid big league players But not some insane return that raises the ceiling of your baseball team
41:19 --> 41:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Those guys were back and top 100 prospects when they were traded.
41:23 --> 41:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
41:23 --> 41:27 [SPEAKER_00]: So think about that, but you'd get less for Kirby with one year to go on his deal.
41:28 --> 41:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
41:28 --> 41:33 [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, the only thing about that is I don't know where that sets your rotation up in 2026.
41:33 --> 41:35 [SPEAKER_00]: If you trade Kirby, things start to get frisky.
41:36 --> 41:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Either you're really banking on your prospects and you're banking on our guy Logan Evans, or you're going to have to go find another starter from outside the organization either by trade or by free agency.
41:46 --> 42:10 [SPEAKER_00]: But you could do because team mobile parks very nice to pitch in and the Mariners have not I'll double negative not not been aggressive for acquiring starting pitching or I were for getting pictures they have been like if you're going to trade Kirby for Deran the Mariners probably have to at least dip their toes into the Tatsuya email market which right now I would think they're not really going to be in.
42:10 --> 42:16 [SPEAKER_00]: But if you're gonna give up a starter like Kirby, you have to look to a level of a caliber starter that could potentially replace them.
42:16 --> 42:19 [SPEAKER_00]: And EMI's ceiling is supposed to be pretty good.
42:20 --> 42:22 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I'd be okay with that.
42:22 --> 42:25 [SPEAKER_02]: And again, the goal is to win next year.
42:25 --> 42:31 [SPEAKER_02]: So you replace the production and the rotation and you make your big league starting nine better, which is good.
42:32 --> 42:42 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's do the same exercise before we wrap up here with a bra you, but we're obviously we're not doing the starters because I am going to just take a, take a, take a gander allow that if I float at any one of the mariners.
42:44 --> 42:47 [SPEAKER_02]: For homegrown starters as it's trade for will your a bra you would say now.
42:48 --> 42:49 [SPEAKER_02]: Correct.
42:50 --> 42:58 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I'll tell you what if the mariners offer Luis Castillo for will your a bra you the red socks would say no because they wouldn't they wouldn't be taking on that kind of money.
42:58 --> 43:00 [SPEAKER_02]: So let's do the prospect game again.
43:00 --> 43:03 [SPEAKER_02]: Would you take, would you trade Ryan Sloan for Willier, Brayou?
43:04 --> 43:05 [SPEAKER_02]: No.
43:05 --> 43:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Would you trade Drangelo St. Jeff for Willier, or Brayou?
43:11 --> 43:15 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe like I don't want to give Jorangelo a short trip.
43:15 --> 43:19 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean this guy has a chance to be really damn good Really good.
43:19 --> 43:36 [SPEAKER_00]: I almost feel like he's slept on on a lot of prospect rankings this year because even though the numbers weren't Perfect and a lot of that has to do with it was ballooned by the left side I mean you're talking about a guy that was pumping a hundred and a couple of his secondaries were awesome in his first year He's only had one year in the mine or so far
43:38 --> 43:40 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think you have to listen, but I don't love it.
43:41 --> 43:43 [SPEAKER_00]: So by default, here, Kate Anderson's a no, too.
43:44 --> 43:45 [SPEAKER_02]: OK.
43:45 --> 43:51 [SPEAKER_02]: It sounds like William Ray who's off the docked for you, for at least with a pitch of the red socks or acquiring pitching, it's a no.
43:53 --> 43:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I like the player, but yeah.
43:56 --> 44:00 [SPEAKER_02]: The only one I would trade is to Rangelow.
44:01 --> 44:05 [SPEAKER_02]: I would say to a package of prospects with D'Rangelow headlining it for William Rao.
44:05 --> 44:09 [SPEAKER_00]: But see, even you, I can hear the hesitation in your voice when saying that.
44:10 --> 44:30 [SPEAKER_02]: your ceiling's not gonna get raised in insane amount but you will be better you're gonna overall make your team better you struggle on defense last year you will get be better defensively your floor offensively will raise a little bit your power will be good he's young he's controllable is everything you'd like
44:30 --> 44:47 [SPEAKER_02]: there are pluses to doing that and for a prospect package in an organization that has too many prospects and needs to trade some of them, I think you can justify that one.
44:48 --> 45:11 [SPEAKER_00]: than any of the prospects not only because he's big league ready or sorry he's not big league ready getting closer to being big league ready is he's right handed the red socks and the rotation they're going to roll out in twenty six is a lot of lefty so you got care pro chase obviously going to be your opening day guy Brian Bayo is going to pitch behind him right now is the number two who's good and he had a solid year but
45:11 --> 45:14 [SPEAKER_00]: Brian Bale, I don't really think is a number two starter.
45:14 --> 45:21 [SPEAKER_00]: I think he's more like a number three or a number four and again, he's good But he's not quite a top-end pitcher.
45:21 --> 45:30 [SPEAKER_00]: So when you get past those two, this is where you dip into the total territory of a known for Boston where it's going to be some combo of Connolly early.
45:30 --> 45:33 [SPEAKER_00]: He will probably be in the rotation Peyton told me
45:35 --> 45:45 [SPEAKER_00]: He throw Kyle Harrison into that mix too, who was one of the main pieces back in the Rafi Devers trade, and then some combo of Tanner Hauk and Richard Fitts, essentially.
45:45 --> 45:54 [SPEAKER_00]: If it's crochet and then bail, and then the three prospects, like I'm talking about, early, totally Harrison, that's four lefties in a variety.
45:55 --> 45:57 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the red socks need a right handed starter.
45:57 --> 46:04 [SPEAKER_02]: Just to a two unknown for them as well, like they're the anti-mariners when it comes to
46:06 --> 46:34 [SPEAKER_02]: and and and again you get past crochet and I guess they owe man it looks muddy in that rotation all those all three of those guys have high ceilings but you don't know that they're all gonna pan out they're not proven at all not and even even if they will be good eventually does not mean they'll be good next year think of the the mariner starters in their current rotation brine will is work here first full year bad no no not bad yes first he's not great
46:34 --> 46:40 [SPEAKER_00]: He had his, he had his ups and downs like any rookie, but again, like he didn't pitch deep into games and he crumbled and stepped out.
46:41 --> 46:42 [SPEAKER_02]: He was not very good.
46:42 --> 46:44 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think he was very good.
46:44 --> 46:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, but remember how good all the underlying stuff was on him that year and how many things.
46:49 --> 46:52 [SPEAKER_02]: Other lines don't win games underlying stats allow you to project for the future.
46:53 --> 46:58 [SPEAKER_02]: But when it comes to winning baseball games in a year, it's the results.
46:58 --> 47:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, his, his area is a rookie was 421 and his ERA plus was 94.
47:03 --> 47:06 [SPEAKER_00]: So he was below average by ERA plus ERA.
47:06 --> 47:07 [SPEAKER_00]: He was fine.
47:07 --> 47:07 [SPEAKER_00]: He wasn't great.
47:08 --> 47:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.
47:09 --> 47:11 [SPEAKER_02]: And in the big games at the end of the year, he was not good.
47:12 --> 47:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Just same as Bryce Miller, right?
47:13 --> 47:17 [SPEAKER_02]: That was the big storyline going into 2024 was them fixing that issue.
47:17 --> 47:20 [SPEAKER_02]: And they both of them did in fantastic fashion.
47:20 --> 47:22 [SPEAKER_02]: But that's my, that's my point.
47:22 --> 47:27 [SPEAKER_02]: Even if your guy is a top prospect, Bryce Miller was a top 100 prospect.
47:27 --> 47:43 [SPEAKER_02]: who was who would top 100 prospecting Dave uter was he not I think he never was I don't think so I'm not Bryce was either even even Logan Gilbert who was solid his first couple of years he was much better his second year but was far from dominant
47:43 --> 48:11 [SPEAKER_02]: in two his first two full seasons in MLB even you can even say his first three full seasons in MLB far from dominant really so no matter how good those guys are you just can't trust fully trust young guys until they've gone out there and they've proven it and that's that's why the red socks would be so interested in guys who have proven it in the Mariners rotation yeah yeah no doubt I will so I'm gonna take away our answers from this is Doran
48:13 --> 48:15 [SPEAKER_02]: at a certain price, a bra you know.
48:16 --> 48:17 [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's where I'm at.
48:18 --> 48:30 [SPEAKER_00]: And a bra you just more has to do with there's nothing I'd feel comfortable with the Mariners giving away that lines up acquiring them and I just don't think he raises the ceiling enough in right field from the group of guys you already have out there.
48:30 --> 48:39 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the combination of canzone Rayleigh Roblese isn't that different in terms of overall production you'll get in 2026 and you get from willier bra you.
48:39 --> 48:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Jared and Iran, that's a little different.
48:42 --> 48:47 [SPEAKER_00]: He will raise the floor, and you know he's got aspects of his game, but none of those right fielders have out there right now.
48:48 --> 48:50 [SPEAKER_00]: But it has to be a certain price.
48:50 --> 48:53 [SPEAKER_00]: I would not be comfortable training most of those starters away.
48:54 --> 48:55 [SPEAKER_02]: Yep.
48:55 --> 49:01 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, that is, I'd say a pretty good breakdown on if the Mariners are going to make a trade at the Red Sox.
49:01 --> 49:03 [SPEAKER_02]: It feels like this is what it would be.
49:04 --> 49:04 [SPEAKER_02]: But we'll see.
49:05 --> 49:10 [SPEAKER_02]: I would be kind of surprised if Luis Castillo's name gets floated to them again this off season.
49:11 --> 49:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Like I know what almost happened last off season for Cossus.
49:14 --> 49:16 [SPEAKER_02]: Mariners have no need for Tristan Cossus anymore.
49:16 --> 49:19 [SPEAKER_02]: So that one doesn't make quite as much sense.
49:20 --> 49:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Could it be Luis and the
49:25 --> 49:26 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's talk to take on money though.
49:27 --> 49:31 [SPEAKER_02]: Would you trade Luis Castillo and Ryan Sloan for Jared Drain?
49:34 --> 49:35 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, you think it would cost that.
49:35 --> 49:36 [SPEAKER_02]: Yes.
49:36 --> 49:38 [SPEAKER_02]: If you're sending money, yeah.
49:41 --> 49:58 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean that is a lot I know that is a lot the marins would have to sacrifice for a right field or with some question marks I know and you and I don't have to be the only one to think about this maybe the red sox think this tous loose would loose cast you be as good pitching at Fenway oh well now
49:59 --> 50:03 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think so, not at this point of his career, not with his strikeout stuff declining.
50:04 --> 50:07 [SPEAKER_02]: The profile doesn't fit very well for him.
50:07 --> 50:09 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I'm just the numbers on the road overall.
50:10 --> 50:18 [SPEAKER_02]: And he fills the rotation spot, but he's, I don't think at this point of his career, he's that slam dunk number two, they're looking for behind Giro Crochet.
50:19 --> 50:20 [SPEAKER_00]: That's probably right.
50:23 --> 50:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
50:23 --> 50:24 [SPEAKER_00]: So, what was fun?
50:24 --> 50:25 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a good breakdown.
50:26 --> 50:55 [SPEAKER_00]: a prediction sushi we talk about next week do uh... maybe we should do the guys you suggest it let's do well when's day okay let's give everybody a reminder here when they were gonna have a point we're having a review episode on Wednesday which will be fun as should we to say that we'll have to be on the same who is who is a recurring guest and we're gonna have them back on for Wednesday's episode to talk about a bunch of different stuff which is always fun
50:55 --> 50:57 [SPEAKER_00]: And then Friday, we're going to be off.
50:57 --> 50:59 [SPEAKER_00]: We're going to just, yeah, no episode Friday.
50:59 --> 51:01 [SPEAKER_00]: We know everybody's going to be busy with Thanksgiving weekend.
51:01 --> 51:03 [SPEAKER_00]: So we're going to do no episode Friday.
51:03 --> 51:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Then back at it is usual next Monday.
51:05 --> 51:07 [SPEAKER_00]: But this week, just two episodes.
51:07 --> 51:11 [SPEAKER_00]: But it will be essentially next Monday.
51:11 --> 51:15 [SPEAKER_00]: We could potentially profile somebody else unless the Mariners have many moves by then.
51:15 --> 51:16 [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah.
51:16 --> 51:17 [SPEAKER_02]: Belinger?
51:17 --> 51:18 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe on Monday.
51:19 --> 51:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe, let's not stamp anything official here yet.
51:23 --> 51:24 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, no.
51:24 --> 51:26 [SPEAKER_02]: Because let's let the turkey settle in and then make a decision.
51:27 --> 51:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Will that?
51:28 --> 51:33 [SPEAKER_00]: And you never know, if there starts to be a name that's hot on the market, that's who will be trending to talk about.
51:33 --> 51:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Like if all of a sudden, Boba Shet's name gets really hot, or Bellinger's name gets really hot, or the Mariners get linked to somebody in reports.
51:40 --> 51:41 [SPEAKER_00]: That's another thing.
51:41 --> 51:42 [SPEAKER_00]: We start breaking them down.
51:42 --> 51:45 [SPEAKER_00]: So let's see how everything plays out in the next week.
51:45 --> 51:48 [SPEAKER_00]: And we can make a judgment call before next Monday's episode.
51:49 --> 51:50 [SPEAKER_00]: All right, well, I like that idea.
51:52 --> 51:54 [SPEAKER_00]: All right, well, hopefully you guys enjoyed that breakdown.
51:54 --> 52:02 [SPEAKER_00]: If you guys have any thoughts on Jaren Duran, or will you, or the Mariners starters, or their prospects, as always, you know, drop them in the comments, lead us to DM.
52:02 --> 52:03 [SPEAKER_00]: We always like hearing your guys' thoughts.
52:03 --> 52:04 [SPEAKER_00]: We always want to hear,
52:05 --> 52:10 [SPEAKER_00]: What the other fans and mariners people are thinking about all this and how opinions might differ from ours.
52:10 --> 52:11 [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, tell us.
52:11 --> 52:13 [SPEAKER_00]: We always like hearing it with that.
52:13 --> 52:16 [SPEAKER_00]: That'll just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Lair podcast.
52:16 --> 52:17 [SPEAKER_00]: You guys know the drill.
52:17 --> 52:21 [SPEAKER_00]: If you want to listen to the full foreign podcast, you can do so anywhere that you get your audio pod.
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52:30 --> 52:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Let us know what you think about deran or will your brain you?
52:33 --> 52:35 [SPEAKER_00]: or anything else we talked about in this episode.
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52:49 --> 52:52 [SPEAKER_00]: That's TJ, I'm Lyle, as always we thank you guys for tuning in.
52:53 --> 52:53 [SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk to you soon.
53:32 --> 53:33 [UNKNOWN]: Thank you.