Episode 334: Harry Ford Trade Reaction + Live Updates From The Winter Meetings

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number three thirty four of the Marine Layer Podcast, Live from the Winter Meetings in Orlando. We have a Harry Ford trade to discuss. We have some rumors to talk about that we were discussing earlier today. 00:00:11 Speaker 2: Recording this lyow Man. 00:00:12 Speaker 1: It's late, but we have plenty to get into here at the Winter Meetings in Orlando. 00:00:16 Speaker 3: It is buzzing a lot to talk about. 00:00:19 Speaker 2: Reminder to you guys, just stay on top of all of our stuff. Just make sure you're downloading these episodes. If you're listening, go rate and review five stars. It really helps. Same thing on YouTube, Just go like comment and go hit subscribe. It's the best way to support the channel. Then you can check us out on our website marine layerpod, dot com, merch, Patreon, it's all there, and then you can follow us across social media at marine Layer Pod. 00:00:38 Speaker 3: Let's get it rolling. 00:00:52 Speaker 1: And mean Welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball podcast network, Recording here on now Monday morning, December eighth, twelve, fifteen a m from the Winter Meetings from the Signia here like we're in Disney World right now. 00:01:09 Speaker 3: How does it feel to be back at the Winter Meeting style. 00:01:11 Speaker 2: I don't see a lot of Epcot. I don't see a lot of drinks around. 00:01:14 Speaker 1: Well at Epcot's right behind us, like it's literally across the street. You do have to you had to drive through the Disney World gates to get here. In fact, there was like a Disney there's one Disney World gate in front of where we're staying, which is not like not in this building. We did have to drive through a big gate to get here. Maybe Mickey Mouse will show up tomorrow. 00:01:35 Speaker 2: Great, great is the Dodgers twenty twenty roster showing up with them? 00:01:38 Speaker 1: Oh that's a that's a great question. But there's been, you know, plenty of people around. We see all the big news hitters we've seen. Haven't seen Jeff Pass and heard Jeff Pass And this here John Hayman, Ken Rosenthal. We're sitting here essentially between there's two hotels, the Signia and then the Waldorf. A Story is to our right, the Signia is to our left. We're just watching like people walking by. And this is better than are set up I think in Dallas last year when we were sitting and recording, because that was just at one hotel this one is between two and I'm getting the I'm getting the vibeliles sitting here that the players are in the players and the team executives or in the waldorf Astoria. 00:02:15 Speaker 2: I don't think that many players are here. I think it's a lot of executives that are that. 00:02:19 Speaker 1: Team employees are over in the waldorf Astoria. The media members seem to be hanging out in the signia, right, So well, you know, we'll split, We'll divide and conquer and try and split our time between the two, the two sides to hear and learn as much as possible. We did spend a lot of time talking to media members today. 00:02:39 Speaker 2: Yeah, if you're watch on YouTube and you can see us media that way, executives that way. So we're sitting right in the middle. We'll see who walks by as we're recording. I mean, people are walking by. It's kind of the fun and recording these pods at the Winter Meetings is you get to do some people watching. And when you're under the same building as the whole Baseball World for the next three days, I mean, chance to talk to a lot of people. I think we're going to do that. I think we already I think we've already done that to some extent, and if we had started recording maybe thirty minutes or earlier. 00:03:05 Speaker 3: We tried. 00:03:05 Speaker 1: We walked over here about ninety minutes ago to set up to start recording, but one way or another, it took us almost an hour and a half to get going. But Jordan Schusterman, obsessed with his family barbecue, purpose walked by us and then had the intention of coming back. We had hit we're going to hit record, and he was gonna stop buying. He was going to be here live on the podcast. But we missed our chance. And he walks by again and goes, huh, you're loss. 00:03:29 Speaker 2: Yeah, well maybe for Wednesday's pod'll come back. Well, we'll plant the tea leaves for Wednesday's pod. We'll probably record on Tuesday. 00:03:36 Speaker 1: If we can get a Mariner's guest to come by here and sit down with us and chat, we will make it happen. 00:03:43 Speaker 3: We could definitely make it happen. 00:03:44 Speaker 2: We want to come sit down on the fly. We'll adapt on the fly. It's that easy. 00:03:47 Speaker 1: Well, thankfully, Jerry Depoto, Justin Hollander, who are here somewhere in this vast, expansive hotel situation stirred up a little bit pre winter meeting stirred up some trades. We have a hair Ford trade to talk about here. Harry Ford gets traded to the Washington Nationals alongside pitching prospect Isaac Lyon for a reliever. 00:04:10 Speaker 2: What do we think? There's two parts of this, so I'm gonna let you decide do we want to break down the trade first or do we want to react to the fan reaction first. 00:04:19 Speaker 1: Let's break down the trade first and then we can because I feel like there's just more branches of the of the discourse around Harry Ford that we can talk about after that. We've talked about in tiny spurts when there's been suggestions made or mailbag questions asked about Harry. But now we actually have something to talk about. So let's talk about the trade itself first. Number one, the player they're getting back in, Jose Ferrer, has a lot to like. He's young, he throws really hard, he's a lefty, and he does some things really well. The Maritors like looking at elite trades and relievers, and they now have one, and now they have this pairing in their bullpen. If you want a summary of like what Jose Ferrer is really good at. By the way, he generates a ton of ground balls. He's among the best in all of baseball getting ground balls. And he does not he does not walk guys, right, So he's gonna throw a lot of strikes. He's not gonna get hit very hard, and there's gonna be a ton of contact on the ground for Mariners infielders to scoop up. And it's a pretty successful strategy. I mean, Zach Britten was when became one of the best relievers of all time by employing that same strategy. 00:05:22 Speaker 3: This guy throws about that hard too. It's very exciting. 00:05:25 Speaker 1: Speaking of the Sesspec, his family barbecue guys, both of them walked up to us today and said that tree is fucking awesome. 00:05:32 Speaker 2: Yeah, they said, I love this trade. Both of them totally separate. Like we talked to Jake and Jordan both separately today and they said, love that deal. And it's not about loving the deal for the Nationals. They said, no, I love the deal for the Mariners. This is why it's important, I think for a lot of people to see to look more into just sorry, to look more into things that are not just era. When you acquire a reliever specifically, really any player, because there's so much more to tell about the story of a player in twenty twenty five than just their batting average. They're eer. There's so much more that goes into it, and for rare, especially with relievers like this that encompasses that philosophy where when you look into what he does and who he is as a pitcher, the Mariners are acquiring him because they think there's a very specific role that he can fill on this team, and the role is a chance to be a really good reliever. Like I think people are almost sleeping on how good this how good this guy can be, And people we've talked to you around here at the meetings seem to think the same thing that almost he's not being appreciated enough. 00:06:33 Speaker 3: No, no, he's not. 00:06:35 Speaker 1: And when you're on a team like the Nationals and you're stash away in their bullpen and you're not racking up saves, it's fair to say it's harder to get recognized. It's the same reason why non closer relievers rarely ever get selected to the All Star Game, because it's just it's hard when you're in a group of eight others of the exact sort of same position on your team. And you're not lighting up something some you're not striking out the most in baseball, you're not recording the most saves, you're not having the most appearances without allowing a run. It's really hard to get recognized. And Jose Ferre doesn't like he's not going to strike a ton of guys out, he doesn't get saves, right, and he plays on a bad team. How are you gonna get recognized that way? That's where you know, the extra level of scouting comes in for the Mariners to identify someone who they think is gonna fit in their bullpen. Off the thing I was talking about earlier, the Mariners now have two lefties with two drastically different profiles in their bullpen. They have a high leverage, high volume lefty who's gonna strike a bunch of guys out that you can use to go after, say a yord On Alvarez, Ora Carry Carpenter, or you have a guy that feels like he could be balanced against both sides, but most importantly, he's gonna go out there and he's going to get a ground ball when you need it. 00:07:47 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, And I think the Mariners just wanted the ability to deploy two lefties that they really like in their pen. Now they're gonna be able to do that. And by the way, if Farrera's not a leverage guy when he first opens up on the roster, that doesn't mean he can't turn into one. This is guy with four years of control and he has big stuff, doesn't walk people, and gets ground balls. I'm not saying pencil him in to be a leverage reliever, but he's got the tools to have the upside to do so. It's twenty five years old. You throw hard, you get ground balls, you don't walk people like that's that's the formula right there. 00:08:21 Speaker 1: There's so much room for this guy to grow. And the most important thing is he. 00:08:25 Speaker 3: Has elite He has elite traits. 00:08:27 Speaker 1: You can always work with elite trades, and the Mariners have been able to find elite traits and utilize them great in their bullpen. The other thing to come with this trade. While I still do think the Mariner should be targeting an upper echelon reliever for this next year twenty twenty six, because there's a solid chance that Jose Ferrer is not that leverage guy this next year, and the Mariners need another leverage guy this next year. 00:08:52 Speaker 2: But it's not totally out of the cards. 00:08:54 Speaker 1: When you have a guy who can throw a hundred, does throw lefty, and has a pitch that's among the best in baseball at any. 00:09:00 Speaker 2: Of his position, sure there's no doubt. Now, I think the flip side to this is I think some of the discourse around us, which is fair discourse. We can get into some of the other discourse in a few minutes. But I think some of the potential concern people had with this deal is how does this benefit the Mariners when you have a high ground ball pitcher that relies on getting weak contact, when you have a middle infield that graded out extremely poorly in terms of out's above average and in terms of a lot of their overall defensive value. Totally fair, And we can get into that, And I think what that comes down to is, Yeah, along with the addition of Farrara, some of the things that the Mariners are going to need in twenty twenty six includes a middle infield that has shored up defensively a little bit more. And we're not saying things are going to change in terms of the players that are playing there. This is more about they need Cole Jung to take a jump defensively in twenty six. They could use a little more from JP Crawford defensively in twenty six. Could they see more of Cole t Emerson at shortstop in twenty twenty six if they really feel like his value and his defense plays better there in the long run, and even if he starts out at third when he gets called up. 00:10:03 Speaker 1: So and you're not gonna have four months of Solano and Rowdy Tellez at first base or somebody else. You're gonna have one hundred and sixty two games, hopefully of Josh Naylor, which is you just hope everyone's gonna feel comfortable in that, which is great. 00:10:15 Speaker 2: But I think this is a lot about the middle infield, which for Jose Ferrer to be his best self, you do need a good defense. 00:10:22 Speaker 1: So you're saying that the Mariner's going out and acquiring Bobaschet to play second base behind Jose Frere right now is not the best idea. 00:10:30 Speaker 2: No, that won't help him. Now, it'll help because Bobashet is gonna mash and he's gonna be great offensively, for whatever team signs him. 00:10:36 Speaker 1: So instead of a three run lead he's pitching in, it could be a five run leader or a six run lead. 00:10:40 Speaker 2: Yeah, because Bobashett not a great defender. Again, Cole Young, they he could play quality defense in the minor leagues. They just need a little more from him in year two at second base, which I think he can give them. Again, rookie years are a lot of not trial and error, but obviously just development. 00:10:57 Speaker 3: And we saw that. 00:10:58 Speaker 1: I mean, he got a development month at the end of the season. However, I do think that mindset though, of thinking, why are you acquiring a single bar sin sinkerballer when your infield defense isn't great. Well, I mean we're talking about someone who's gonna throw three to four innings a week. I don't think you make a decision you make this a blanket statement like that based off of someone who's gonna throw such a small percentage of your innings. It's different than say the Mariners deciding that we're gonna build our entire team around sinker ball ground ballers, which they do have plenty. Brian Moo's a sinkerballer, George Kirby's a sinkerballer. Bryce Miller throws a sinker ball, right, Like, all of these guys can be sinkerballers or are sinkerballers. But the Mariners aren't dead set on one sort of ground ball philosophy. What they like is utilizing guy's strengths. Sure, and that just happens to be those guys strengths. That does not mean that you know Jose Ferre pitching. The training for Jose Ferrer is a bad trade because you have J. B. Crawford as your shortstop, like no, no, no, and. 00:12:01 Speaker 2: Those situations will only pop up occasionally. It's not like every ball he puts into play and every pitch he throws is going to turn into a ground ball at the sixth hole where jps the range to his left. Again, especially when he's throwing three to four innings a week, it will be sporadically. It'll be occasionally where you've got to buy process and you've got to buy tools to eventually get the ultimate results that you want. And when you're getting in, Jose Ferrara is again guy has got a chance to be really good. 00:12:28 Speaker 1: This is a guy right now, I think for twenty twenty six slots in the Edward Bizardo equivalent role in your bullpen, maybe one step below it. Maybe Bizardo still is that if you want to designate an inning a seventh inning guy. 00:12:42 Speaker 3: Because even though he had his moment in. 00:12:45 Speaker 2: Game seven, which is not great, it was the worst pitch in the history of the franchise. 00:12:48 Speaker 1: He never should have been in there. He never should have been in there. You're right, but he did throw the pitch that ultimately led to that. He has still probably earned his spot for next season, and for over the course of season, might earn that spot away from him. But for now, I think this is going to be a guy the first lefty out of the bullpen what Caleb Ferguson was supposed to be this past season but ended up not being. 00:13:10 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think people should be excited about Jose Ferre. That's what this boils down to. Don't just look at the era. It does not even close to tell the full story. Go look at some of the other things that involve Jose Ferrer's entire profile, and I think you can come away with the conclusion of, Oh, this guy's a chance to be really good. And again, just talking to people here at the winter meetings or like the early reports on Jose Ferrera seemed to be people really like the guy. 00:13:36 Speaker 1: What are we going to do about this Harry Ford discourse? 00:13:39 Speaker 2: Now, so let's say this. Let's before we even get into that, let's first say that if the Mariners had the opportunity to trade Harry Ford for let's say, Brendan Donovan, right, we're gonna get to him in a few minutes, if they had a chance to really do that one for one and his value was still truly that high, I think the Mariners are doing that in a heartbeat, you guys. If they had a chance to trade for an everyday infielder that is a two and a half to three win player on the regular for a backup catcher, they would have done it in a heartbeat. Because a lot of the discourse has to do with, yeah, they didn't get enough back for Harry Ford. I think this is what the industry says he's worth. If the Mariners aren't getting more back than this for Harry Ford, there's probably a reason. 00:14:24 Speaker 1: Harry Ford did improve his value this year, Don't get us wrong. Like he was arm Layton, who we'll see here at the winter meetings and we'll chat about this straight. He was in the camp of no, he was not quite as on board with this trade because he was buying a little bit more into harry Ford as a prospect. He said, look, Harry's hitting the ball better this year. He's making more contact and the defense improved, which are all things he needed to do. 00:14:47 Speaker 3: Even with all of that, I just. 00:14:50 Speaker 1: Don't think the value was there for harry Ford in a number of ways. Let's start with way number one that the value was not there. Harry Ford to the Mariners is not as valuable as Harry Ford to another team. It is a math equation. You have one starting catching position and you have one backup catching position. The starting catcher in this case, Cal Rowley is going to play ninety to ninety five percent of the games. So where does that leave harry Ford. Even if it's Harry Ford turns out to win nationally Rookie of the Year this year, how are you going to be able to find playing time for Harry Ford on this roster which needs more proven players to take the at bats that people want harry Ford to take, whether that be the backup catch at bats would have been fine for him. The people suggesting he dh no, I'd rather them sign Jorge Planco and have him DH as opposed to Harry Ford, who has eight played appearances at the big league level. It's we're past the development stage of this Mariner's process. What they're in right now is a contention window, and Harry Ford. You could not walk into opening day having him being your DH. So even with Harry Ford being as good as possible in this trade, the value does not line up for the Mariners. 00:16:01 Speaker 3: He could, it could not happen here. 00:16:04 Speaker 2: I think in a lot of ways, the Harry Ford future ended in Seattle. The minute cal Rally inked his name to that contract at that set him that that kept him a Mariner for the next six years. The minute cow Rally put pen to paper on that deal, that was the end of the Harry Ford future in Seattle. The most he was ever going to be from that point forward was a backup catcher. 00:16:25 Speaker 1: Now, another way to think about this when talking about Harry it's why his value is where it is because there were a lot of comments that we got that were really shocked about this return for the Mariners and thought the Mariners were not getting enough in return. 00:16:45 Speaker 2: Yeah, did we want to get into that for a second. There. 00:16:50 Speaker 1: Let's just say there were some ideas thrown out there of what the Mariners should have gotten for Harry Ford. There's multiple comments that Harry Ford should have been a headliner for Derek Scooball instead of Jose Ferrera. There was a comparison of this trade for the Mariners being the Clippers trading shake Gil just Alexander to the thunder who just won MVP this past year. 00:17:14 Speaker 2: Yeah. Else Like, there were real comments saying the Mariners just traded away a future MVP for reliever which spoiler I'm gonna put a hot take here on this podcast. No, No, Harry Ford's not winning an MVP. And even to what TJ was possibly alluding to earlier, I don't think Harry Ford's won a National League Rookie of the Year this year. 00:17:30 Speaker 1: It is unlikely. He could be he could be good, he could be valuable. But let's say on the Nationals he's worth two wins. He's not worth two wins to the Mariners. No, he can't play. He will be playing maximum twice a week in Seattle. Again, when you have the best catcher on the planet playing every day, how is this guy getting his reps cal Cal's best catcher in the world. 00:17:53 Speaker 2: Yeah, that guy knows who's walking by. I see. This is a great thing about recording at the Winter meetings. 00:17:56 Speaker 3: Oh a lot of a lot of input. 00:17:58 Speaker 2: A lot of input, just people walking by, people watch interact. It's fun. But yeah, Harry Ford, just again, when you have Cal on the roster, there was no way Harry Ford was gonna put up a two to two and a half win season. There was not enough volume. 00:18:12 Speaker 1: No on top of this for Harry There were some comments as well, saying, okay, guys, what the Mariners might have done right now is they sold that Harry Ford when his value was not very high. Why wouldn't the Mariners sit on him for his value to come up? Let me ask you, this was their potential for Harry Ford's value to come up if he stayed on the Mariners. 00:18:34 Speaker 2: I don't know how he wasn't gonna play. 00:18:36 Speaker 1: The only place he could really play would be in Tacoma. How would his value go up if he was in Tacoma. I just I don't see a way that that's possible. He could be the greatest triple A catcher of all time. Next year hit like a forty five homer season. How's this value gonna be high? He's not in the big leagues, right. 00:18:55 Speaker 2: There's just no way to maximize even higher value on this thing. There's just not and you can't. 00:19:00 Speaker 1: His value will not go up if you just sit him on the bench and make him the backup unless you are actually inserting him into dh which I told you at the beginning is not an option. You cannot do that if you're trying to go win a World Series next year. His value will not go up. So it's unfortunate that this is the scenario for Harry Ford. If anybody else was the starting capture for the Seattle Mariners, this would be a totally different discussion with Harry Ford, and the Mariners might not make harry Ford available because solid young catching is hard to come by, it really is. But this is a scenario where there's no way to raise Harry Ford's trade value. You don't see a way for him to meaningfully contribute to this roster next year and anything beyond being a backup catcher. And I think fans overvalued what Harry Ford's trade value was because someone told us last year in the off season, Like I mentioned, like Arham said, he made big jumps this year, so this sentiment might have changed. There are people last offseason that said harry Ford was not a top one hundred prospect. If he's not a top one hundred prospect house, he cannot be a headliner. In fact, getting a reliever who throws one hundred miles an hour from the left side and has an elite ground ball rate is an incredible return package if that's the case. 00:20:16 Speaker 2: For sure, Again, harry Ford's value has gone the wrong way the last year or so. Even with the improvements that he made, he just isn't valued the same way that he once was when he was drafted. There's still questions about his defense. Obviously, hasn't played a ton of big league games despite being drafted in twenty one. He's a guy that still questions about the power. Never learned another position. I just don't know what you were going to do with them, which is all the more reason why I can't understand for the life of me, how we're getting comments from people saying this is like the Clippers trading SGA. We're getting comments saying this is the Adam Jones trade all over again for Eric Badaj yeah, we're getting people telling us that again, if not Schooble, he should have been traded for Jose Ramirez, Like, I don't like see, I don't know how to respond to that. I don't know either. This is where I run into a wall, Like we try to have a conversation about it, but then we're getting dms and comments saying, well, they just traded away an MVP. Most of this is first round, Like it has to just be like first round gloss and glitter on this for Harry Ford, because if you look at his stats in the minor league, stats don't tell the whole story. 00:21:22 Speaker 1: There's the athletic part of it. There's there's his catching, his framing, which just does not get measured in the minor leagues. But his stats were like fine in the miners for the most part on his way up. They're not world beating, like dominating Julio Rodriguez level stats in the miners like he was. 00:21:40 Speaker 3: Harry Ford was very good and took over in this year. 00:21:42 Speaker 2: Very good. Unbelievable. No, no, Also, he had an unbelievable month, one unbelievable month that was really good, but the rest of it was it was it was fine, it was good. Can I throw one more important piece into this puzzle here? We haven't talked about it on social media. I do want to hit at home here on the podcast. But this trade also signals is the Mariners really like Luke Stevenson, you guys. That means the Mariners probably think Luke Stevenson has a higher ceiling than Harry Ford does. I think there's a reason they drafted him last summer, and I think there's a reason they were okay with trading Harry Ford away. Now. Luke Stevenson's not going to be in the big leagues this year, but if you need another catcher down the line, clearly they value him higher. And by the way, in the little bit that he played in Modesto this year, he was awesome. 00:22:25 Speaker 3: And Cal's got. 00:22:28 Speaker 1: Three four years probably of playing every day behind the plate. I'll say three because Cal honest, he could be but everyone ages differently. But you could run into a situation where Salvador Prez still catches a bunch even though he totally shouldn't because he's terrible at defense and his body is broken down. There's always scenarios like that. But let's say Pete col Raley will exist behind the plate for three more seasons. Ye, that's probably the median one as that at that point Luke Stevenson would be pretty developed and ready. And that doesn't account for the fact the Mariners could draft another catcher, they could trade for another catcher, they could trade their prospects for somebody to go go acquire. This doesn't take the Mariners out of the catching market. This just means the Mariners didn't like this specific catcher enough to put put them on their roster for next year over a reliever like Jose Ferrara. 00:23:20 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. It's about winning now in twenty twenty six, right, Jose Ferrere's probably got a better shot to help the Mariners win in twenty six than Harry Ford does, especially because there is a path for Jose ferrer to play and succeed. There is not a path for Harry Ford to play baseball games for the Mariners. 00:23:36 Speaker 1: We've been very consistent on now is the time to trade your prospects, and this is a trade where you're trading your prospects to get better. The Mariners still do need another leverage bullpen arm. I want to see in Andre's Munjo's Matt brash Gapespier level reliever acquired by the team. 00:23:51 Speaker 2: Now, it might be hard to get a Muno's level guy because that would involve signing Eddie or signing Robert Suarez, but go get another leverage arm. I mean, we talked about Devin Williams forever. We talked to aut Amelia Pagan. He signed a few days ago. But yeah, somebody else that can throw late in games. 00:24:05 Speaker 1: And it could be at the point while where they just do this by bulk, where they'll go out there and they'll acquire another very high upside young reliever from another team and hope that half for two thirds of them hit like they did in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three, when all that stuff really works out for them, that might have to be the strategy. 00:24:25 Speaker 3: And they're on their way to doing that right now. 00:24:27 Speaker 1: But right as we sit here at the Winter meetings, and there's plenty of transactions to go down and there's plenty of conversations to be had, the goal should still be a top tier reliever. 00:24:35 Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. And it could come at the deadline. I hope it comes earlier than that, and I hope they do it this offseason. But they get to the late July and they think they need another leverage arm, they could trade for it, then it's always another route again. I hope not. I'd like to see them get it done before opening day, but just something to think about. 00:24:52 Speaker 1: So we're sitting here at the Winter Meetings right now, and we've gotten plenty of time to sit down and chat. We saw our friends at Bucko Banner on the Just Baseball podcast network. They're here Cesspitus Family Barbecue is here. A lot of the beat writers that we've talked to from different teams at that have come through Seattle and that we've chatted with over the time. 00:25:10 Speaker 3: So we've here on day one. 00:25:11 Speaker 1: We you know, we arrived about six thirty this afternoon to the hotel and here we're are recording six hours later. 00:25:17 Speaker 3: Have gotten plenty of conversation to be had. 00:25:19 Speaker 1: So within that time, what has stood out to you the most about what we've heard? 00:25:25 Speaker 2: Yeah, just from people we've talked to in conversations that we've had about guys that the Mariners could be interested in, right, because this is what a lot of This is a lot of what goes down at these winter meetings, a lot of transactions, or at least a lot of talk of transactions, and who's kind of in the Mariner's circle right now? The big ones can tell Marte there's also been Brendan Donovan. We can start with Donovan and then we can get a little more into Kateel. I would say the overall, the overall conclusion or not conclusion, because that's not fair. Nothing's conclusive. What we've grasped so far on day one is these asking prices are high. 00:26:00 Speaker 3: And Donovan is a really good baseball player. 00:26:03 Speaker 1: He's versatile, he gets on base, and he's very consistent. But the asking price for him is a starter to begin right at least that's what it is right now. 00:26:18 Speaker 2: Could it eventually come down after some negotiations when you get down the line, it's possible. But if you're the Cardinals and you want pitching and you need pitching, you've got the leverage in the Brendan Donovan trade because you don't have to trade him. He's controllable. So what are they asking for? Yeah, if it's the Mariners, from what we understand, they want a. 00:26:36 Speaker 1: Starter, and the starter would be I guess in the words of what we heard. It doesn't need to be an ace that would not be an ace starter, And the Mariners wouldn't trade an ace starter for Brendan Donovan, who again is a fine base he's a good baseball player, but he's not someone that you'd have to trade Brian Wou for you would have to trade Bryce Miller at this point. 00:26:55 Speaker 2: Sure that would be the price. 00:26:56 Speaker 1: It would be more of that line, right, Miller and Miller are in some auxiliar, auxiliary pieces to send over to the Cardinals, and the math on that. There's a lot of Mariners fans that would sit and think about this right now and instantly say no. And honestly, I can't blame them. Just start with the years of control Donovan two, Miller four and Miller has not totally been healthy, but he showed what he could be in twenty twenty four. Are you sure you want to not experience any more of that for Brendan Donovan, who you'd only get for half the amount of time. 00:27:30 Speaker 2: Yeah, let's just say this. If that's the price, I'm saying no. 00:27:34 Speaker 1: I'm saying no too, And the Mariners would say no as well. There wouldn't be a scenario where they would say yes to that. What about George Kirby? 00:27:44 Speaker 2: Still no, because if you're gonna trade Kirby, it's got to be for something more than that. Well, first off, I don't think they're very intent on trading any of their four homegrown starters to begin with. But if they were even gonna consider it, I think it's got to be for a player that's better than Brendan Donovan, who again good baseball player, but I don't think the Mariners would trade one of their four homegrown starters for him. 00:28:04 Speaker 1: And that's where we get into this conversation where I don't think we got a very clear answer on whether or not they would say yes to a prospect. 00:28:11 Speaker 2: A prospect would be possible. 00:28:13 Speaker 1: If the Mariners aren't willing to trade any of the four starters in the rotation for Brennan Donovan, then I would ask you, okay, Ryan Sloan for Brennan Donovan. And that's a really tough conversation to have because Ryan Sloan is arguably an untouchable prospect. He might be untouchable for you. I don't know if he's quite untouchable for me. 00:28:31 Speaker 3: Because if the. 00:28:32 Speaker 1: Mariner's trade for for for could tell Marte, for example, I would be willing to have that conversation. But for Brennan Donovan, like you really are pushing in to win this year, like you are, Like that's the kind of move. 00:28:46 Speaker 3: But man, Ryan Sloane's really good. 00:28:48 Speaker 2: I just he would be untouchable to me, And honestly, I think he's untouchable to the Mariners. I can't know that for sure, but just the way he's talked about and how good he was year one and the upside he has, he feels to me like somebody that the Mariners have no intention of trading away, and for somebody like Brendan Donovan, who again I don't want to call him a role player because he's obviously not a bench player, but he is not anchoring an offense. He will compliment an offense, he's not anchoring it, and. 00:29:17 Speaker 3: He'd fit very well on this Mariner's team. 00:29:19 Speaker 2: And for what it's worth, by the way, if the Mariners were to trade for Brendan Donovan, they could still trade for Donovan and sign Polanco, Like there is a way they can do both. Where Polanco's the DH he comes in and plays second base at points, and Donovan can play third, and then when you need Donovan to slide over to second, he could do that. I mean, Donovan hasn't played as much third base in the last couple of years, but could do it. There's a way to do it. 00:29:42 Speaker 1: What about the other name we were talking about, and this would be Katel Marte. 00:29:45 Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, I'm trying to think there's anything else we want to wrap up on Donovan before getting to Kutel. 00:29:50 Speaker 1: So I would then, actually before we get to Kateel Martes. So then it sounds like the pro the pitching prospect, because the Cardinals needs starting pitching. The prospect you and I would settle on to give up for Brennan Donovan would be dur Angelo Sanda based on what we heard, I don't think the Cardinals would have any interest in acquiring dur Angelos for Brendan Donovan. 00:30:10 Speaker 2: I think they just feel like they're selling too low on the guy. And again, if the industry tells the Cardinals that what they are asking for will not be met in terms of a price, then that's how prices start to come down. But here's sitting at the Winter meetings. It doesn't sound like prospects are getting traded for Brendan Donovan. It sounds like the Cardinals want big leagu pieces. And by the way, I would take this note too. The Cardinals director of pitching used to work for the Mariners. It's a guy by the name of Matt Pierpont. So if the Cardinals are targeting a starting pitcher, I'm going to guess it's somebody that he likes, and I'm gonna guess it's somebody that he has interest in bringing into the Cardinals organization. 00:30:46 Speaker 1: Right now, Katel Marte, as high as the Brennan Donovan suggested trade package was, there was a higher trade package for Kateel Marte. 00:30:57 Speaker 3: As you would know. 00:30:59 Speaker 1: In the these direct words, it would take a quote one SODO level package right now to acquire Kateel Marte. 00:31:06 Speaker 2: Again from people we talk to, that's our understanding. So this idea of packaging some prospects and some really good prospects for Ktel, you're not even close to meeting what the Diamondbacks are seemingly asking for, which makes sense because again about the whole leverage thing, I mean, this is their golden ticket right here. If you are trying to seriously set your franchise into a spot where you are young and exciting and good for the foreseeable future. Because the Diamondbacks are not rebuilding. They want to stay young and they want to get club control, but they're not rebuilding. So if they're going to trade catel Marte, they want young, controllable big league pieces back. So when you hear that and then you hear things like one Sodo trade, that means that they are looking for something like a Mariner starting pitcher, one of their top prospects, maybe probably two of their top prospects, and then make potentially. 00:31:57 Speaker 1: A Mariner's young infield. They're cool young, So especially if you're trading ktel Marte Cole Young would need they need a second basement. 00:32:05 Speaker 2: So that makes it sound like it would be something like Kirby Cole Young one of their top prospects. I mean, who do you want to call it? 00:32:13 Speaker 3: Kate Anderson? They need, they need starting pictures, right, and. 00:32:17 Speaker 2: If Sloan is their most untouchable guy, like if the Mariner's value Sloan is the number one pitcher in the org. Let's say they do, then it becomes Kirby, Kate Anderson, Cole Young and maybe a contributor on top of that that has some control. That's a lot of the marriage better. 00:32:33 Speaker 1: If they do that trading, you're talking about subtracting one of your starting pitchers. You're projected everyday second baseman, and someone, let's say it's Tom Canzone gets traded back to the Diamondbacks in this deal. That's three regular contributors. 00:32:49 Speaker 2: Or let's even call it Luke Rayley because say the Mariners want to keep Kenzone because they played well at the end of the year. 00:32:53 Speaker 3: That's three regular contributors. 00:32:55 Speaker 1: Still, if the Mariners are not going to go acquire another outfielder, those are three people who will play a decent role on the Mariners next year, all the way up to a great role. 00:33:05 Speaker 2: Tell her he's the best second basement in baseball. 00:33:07 Speaker 1: He's really good. Are you better though? Are you better not having Kirby pitching every fifth day? Not having Luke Raley to supplement? 00:33:16 Speaker 2: And it's like the gap between Cole Young and could tell that big to be worth that. Look, it's a lot. And I gotta be honest when I hear Wan Soto trade for a guy that is in his thirties and look at contract Juan Soto, No, he's not won Soto. He's now Look, he's been a top ten hitter in the sport the last two years by WRC plus, Like, let's not sell him short. But no, he's not Juan Soto as a hitter. And again he's in his thirties. They're a little bit of questions about what he's like in the clubhouse, right. That came out last summer. 00:33:48 Speaker 1: And Jan Sota was twenty three when he got traded. Yeah, I mean we're talking a world of difference. We're talking nearly a decade difference a so to expect that kind of that kind of return is crazy. This contractor is doing so much work, Kat tells a great baseball player, this contract could tell marte is On is doing so much more work to drive up his price for the Diamondbacks because they know he is the best bang for your buck you have in Major League Baseball for how much you're paying somebody that's not on a pre arm contract. 00:34:18 Speaker 2: So as a result, they're trying to ask for the world. 00:34:22 Speaker 1: So please let us know in the comments, guys, if we throw a suggested trade package of either Bryce Miller, George Kirby, Cole Young, Kate Anderson, and Luke Rayley for kateel Marte. 00:34:34 Speaker 2: Can we make something, Claire, It's not Miller and Kirby. 00:34:37 Speaker 1: Kirby, Yeah, well obviously not if you trade both of them. You have to trade both of them. But yes, one of them, Kate Anderson, Luke Rayley, Cole Young. Would you do that right this second for the Mariners? Knowing there are still other options out there for you to go upgrade aka Brendan Donovan or other free agents. 00:34:56 Speaker 3: I just I cannot see that. I can't do it. 00:34:58 Speaker 2: So look at it like this. But before we wrap this pot up, you ask, so the Mariner's better if they give up all of that for kaateel Marte? Even look at it like this, are the Mariners? How much better are the Mariners giving all of that up for kateel Marte or keeping all those aforementioned pieces and resigning Jorge Polanco. 00:35:19 Speaker 1: Signing Jorge Planco. Yeah, in twenty twenty six, they are better. I can't promise the years after that, because Jorge's health hasn't been perfect and he's getting up there in age and he's already mostly going to be dh a DHF you sign him, which would hamper your roster. And you can also have to pay him roughly fifteen million dollars a year, that being said, in twenty twenty six, which to hold myself accountable, I'm in a moment where I care about next year next year only. So in that case, that requires signing Jorge Planco, not trading for kaateel Marte. If if one of those pieces gets knocked off, this hypothetical Katel Marte deal, let's say it's Kirby, no Caden, Kirby coleong Luke greatly alone, they take Kate Anderson out because Kid's eventually gonna take Kirby's spot in the rotation that they've now cleared. 00:36:07 Speaker 3: How about that? 00:36:08 Speaker 2: I think then you have to listen a little bit more because in that scenario, look, you're gonna have to fill a starter's role in twenty twenty six, but you are adding a superstar second baseman. And again, we've talked about the whole Kirby thing. We just is he gonna sign an extension? Is that big jump gonna happen for him? We're still waiting on both of those things, and you're gonna have to If you're not gonna sign Kirby long term, you're probably gonna have to trade them either this winner or next winner if you want to maximize the value. 00:36:36 Speaker 1: Otherwise you're gonna get back a fraction of the cost of what Corbyn Burns was traded for, which was Joey Ortiz and dl Hall, which isn't that much. 00:36:45 Speaker 2: I mean, they were prospects, but it's not like didn't move the needle the Brewers roster all that much. 00:36:50 Speaker 1: Unless the Mariners are gonna spend money like the Mets, like the Yankees, like the Dodgers, they're gonna have to make some trades that look bad optically, And to be fair, the Maryor have made plenty of trades that look bad optically, so you know they've they've already done this before. But you're gonna it's just a bullet you're. 00:37:07 Speaker 2: Gonna have to bite. When you have all your pitching plan works out so well that you. 00:37:11 Speaker 1: Have this problem, which kind of is a problem, kind of is a benefit that you have four young starters who clocks almost line up simultaneously, all pitching in your rotation at the same time, and all are good, so all are going to get paid by somebody, and you have to make the decision on who to pay The only team that could really afford to do this and pay all of them are the Dodgers. The Mariners would have to invest nearly one hundred million dollars in their rotation to keep all of these guys, and they're not going to do that because if they're going to keep their budget at about one hundred and seventy five ish million dollars, there's just not room for that. 00:37:47 Speaker 2: No, no, there's not. 00:37:50 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:37:50 Speaker 2: Look, I mean according to fans, you're talking about bad optic trades. They're courting to fans in our comments, Harry Ford was a terrible optics trade. 00:37:57 Speaker 3: There are suggestions Jerry should get fired. 00:37:59 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean at SGA. If you can listen to our comments, Yeah, it's ridiculous. Anyway, Anyway, happy off season, Lyle. This this this trade was really like a welcome to the off season. It really was because you get all the discourse, right, get all of the commenters, and you get all the reactions, and you get all I mean, I know people were attached to Harry Ford man, but I think it's gonna be okay. 00:38:26 Speaker 1: Harry Ford could have been better than let's say the Mariners re Son Mitch Garver, Harry Ford could have been better than Mitch Garver technically, but how much better is a better backup catcher making you yeah, like like one inning diss one inning swing throughout a year. It's just it's none. It's note enough agreed. 00:38:45 Speaker 2: Now, I'll say this as we start to wrap up the pod. We'll record again on Tuesday at some point, so we'll have basically two full days of us being here at the Winter meetings, talking to people, trying to gather information. Hopefully some moves will go down at some point in the next couple of days. That's always fun. And when we record again on Wednesday, we'll bring you everything we've got. If we learn things and we talk to people, we'll tell you right here. 00:39:07 Speaker 1: So it's been fun so far, Doug. This is a beautiful hotel that we could not yet afford. Soon soon we'll be able to afford a lot of great people out here. The weather was not great when we got in, but hopefully it's better the next couple of days, and hopefully we learned a lot, and hopefully we get another splash here for the Mariners while everyone is under the same roof at the same time. 00:39:26 Speaker 2: Now, with that, learn a lot and get a chance to talk to all you guys about it. So I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. If you do, make sure to download these episodes. Please go rate and review five stars. It really does help. Same idea over on YouTube, like comment, Please hit subscribe. Then you'll know whenever we go live, whenever we're posting content. Hey, you'll know when we post our Wednesday podcast episode. We'll have more to tell you about from here at the Winter meetings. So again, go hit subscribe on YouTube. You can go check us out on our website marine layerpod dot com. Our merch is there, Patreon's there, and then you can follow us all across social media at marine Layer Pod. That's t J. I'm Lyle. It's always we Thank you guys for tuning aga in Little Talk to you 00:40:51 Speaker 1: M