Lyle and TJ welcome Jason Churchill, host of 'Baseball Things', to preview the Mariners 2026 season, who he's high/low on, whether or not the team will make the World Series, and more.
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00:00 --> 00:03 [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to episode number 381 of the Marine Layer podcast.
00:03 --> 00:11 [SPEAKER_01]: We welcome on a recurring guest, a friend of ours, Jason Churchill, for his annual interview previewing the Mariners 2026 season.
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00:44 --> 00:45 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's get it rolling.
00:59 --> 01:26 [SPEAKER_01]: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Lair podcast part of the just baseball podcast network recording here on Monday evening March 23rd this episode will come out the day before opening day so reminder to you all if you're going to opening day super exciting we're doing an event at ox dental hall both pre game and post game whichever jive is more your your speed we will be there will be partnering with our friends at the hall and with corona
01:26 --> 01:29 [SPEAKER_01]: to do a little pre game event or we'll be doing some content with fans.
01:30 --> 01:32 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll have some fun giveaways from Corona.
01:32 --> 01:35 [SPEAKER_01]: You can enjoy some smash burgers and some bruise.
01:35 --> 01:39 [SPEAKER_01]: Then after the game, Lawner will be taping our Friday episode live from the hall.
01:40 --> 01:40 [SPEAKER_01]: So that'll be great.
01:41 --> 01:41 [SPEAKER_01]: Please come by.
01:41 --> 01:46 [SPEAKER_01]: If you're going to opening gate, it should be a ton of fun and we'll kick off an awesome season of Mariners baseball.
01:46 --> 01:47 [SPEAKER_00]: How's it going?
01:47 --> 01:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Hey, that way.
01:48 --> 01:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Can you believe we're one day away from opening
01:52 --> 01:55 [SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be really weird seeing baseball played live again, but I'm very thankful.
01:55 --> 01:56 [SPEAKER_01]: Because now we'll have something to do every night again.
01:57 --> 01:59 [SPEAKER_00]: It's time for baseball to be back and we're here.
02:00 --> 02:00 [SPEAKER_00]: We are fired up.
02:01 --> 02:03 [SPEAKER_00]: We had a really fun conversation with Jason Churchill.
02:04 --> 02:07 [SPEAKER_00]: I will say for anybody that knows church or have listened to our past interviews with church.
02:08 --> 02:09 [SPEAKER_00]: He's very,
02:09 --> 02:10 [SPEAKER_00]: down the middle.
02:10 --> 02:11 [SPEAKER_00]: He calls it straight.
02:12 --> 02:13 [SPEAKER_00]: He tells you what he believes.
02:13 --> 02:21 [SPEAKER_00]: So he might not be quite as high on the Mariners as we all are, but he gives all reasoning for it.
02:21 --> 02:23 [SPEAKER_00]: And let's not totally deter the narrative.
02:23 --> 02:27 [SPEAKER_00]: He still thinks the Mariners are going to be very good, but he just outlines a lot of both sides.
02:27 --> 02:28 [SPEAKER_00]: And you hear it throughout the course of the interview.
02:29 --> 02:30 [SPEAKER_01]: We won't keep you guys any longer.
02:30 --> 02:32 [SPEAKER_01]: Church long winded.
02:32 --> 02:34 [SPEAKER_01]: So he, he's got a lot to say.
02:34 --> 02:35 [SPEAKER_01]: So we're not going to keep you guys any longer.
02:35 --> 02:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's get you to that interview with Jason Churchill.
02:41 --> 02:42 [SPEAKER_00]: All right, well, how about this?
02:42 --> 02:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Fourth year in a row, we're doing our Mariners season preview right before opening day with our friend Jason Churchill.
02:47 --> 02:54 [SPEAKER_00]: You can find him at future stars, at prospect insider, at baseball things, church, always, always love talking ball with you.
02:55 --> 02:56 [SPEAKER_02]: Are you ready for four years in rows?
02:57 --> 02:57 [SPEAKER_02]: Is that real?
02:57 --> 02:58 [SPEAKER_02]: We've done this four years in row.
02:58 --> 03:02 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so, okay, so this is year four of us doing the podcast.
03:02 --> 03:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Like this will be the fourth season of play while we've been podcasting.
03:05 --> 03:07 [SPEAKER_00]: We're a little over three years in total.
03:07 --> 03:11 [SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, every year, just like unintentionally, this is turned into a little bit of tradition.
03:11 --> 03:18 [SPEAKER_00]: So now it's by intention this year, turned into tradition where right before the season starts, let's have church on the preview of the year.
03:18 --> 03:21 [SPEAKER_02]: I can't believe you guys can stand me for a fourth year in a row.
03:21 --> 03:22 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's kind of the trend, right?
03:22 --> 03:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Like, two, three years is probably enough for Churchill, and then we can move on.
03:26 --> 03:28 [SPEAKER_02]: So I appreciate it, four years in a row, how about that?
03:28 --> 03:30 [SPEAKER_00]: And you can still stand us, it's even.
03:30 --> 03:31 [SPEAKER_02]: I wouldn't say that.
03:32 --> 03:33 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, and I always describe it this way, Church.
03:34 --> 03:37 [SPEAKER_01]: Your straight shooter, you'll hold Lao and I accountable if we have something stupid to say.
03:38 --> 03:39 [SPEAKER_01]: So, let me start off with this.
03:40 --> 03:43 [SPEAKER_01]: Has there been anything stupid we've said online that you'd like to bring up?
03:44 --> 03:59 [SPEAKER_02]: Man, I'm just not on social that much anymore, so I can't think of anything, but I know sometimes the intent of some of it is just a provoke thought and it's not necessarily that you believe everything that you're bringing up a question.
03:59 --> 04:06 [SPEAKER_02]: I've seen your posts on social words and it's kind of in question form and it's a provoke thought and conversation.
04:06 --> 04:11 [SPEAKER_02]: So I try not to jump to conclusions there, because I think we all do that to some extent.
04:11 --> 04:22 [SPEAKER_02]: And you're trying to ask questions that fans might ask and want answers to so so I get that So I try not to jump in but yeah, there's often some things that that you guys are talking about.
04:22 --> 04:30 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm like, all right And here's the funny thing I always wonder which one of these two guys is trying to be stupid
04:31 --> 04:43 [SPEAKER_02]: But I do understand that, you know, you're trying to book thought, you know, like, I don't know what it would be, but, you know, I just make something up, moving JP Crawford to second base, you know, or something, you know, there's nothing really stupid about that.
04:43 --> 04:44 [SPEAKER_02]: We know it's not going to happen.
04:44 --> 04:46 [SPEAKER_02]: We know an all-winner wasn't going to happen.
04:47 --> 04:55 [SPEAKER_02]: Um, so yeah, I just think, you know, there's a conversation there to, you know, to be had, I think, because it involves a lot of other things like Colt Amerson and Coli Young and things like that.
04:55 --> 05:01 [SPEAKER_01]: So I get, is it safe to say you weren't as disappointed as Lyle and Cal Tucker didn't sign
05:01 --> 05:12 [SPEAKER_02]: I think heading into the offseason, I think we all knew that was an happening, but were you actually pushing for that like you thought maybe they had a shot pushing for it.
05:12 --> 05:14 [SPEAKER_00]: I've been pushing for it for two and a half years.
05:14 --> 05:16 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, but were you thinking they actually had a shot too?
05:18 --> 05:24 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, so you can't put me on the spot with things like this now you're making me be honest like right here on the podcast like make me Tell the truth with true serum.
05:25 --> 05:26 [SPEAKER_00]: It was a great bit forever.
05:26 --> 05:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I actually if you were to make me drink true serum and and make me answer the question Did I think the Seattle Mariners were going to incile talker to a contract?
05:36 --> 05:37 [SPEAKER_00]: Probably not okay.
05:37 --> 05:38 [SPEAKER_02]: Do you think they had a chance though?
05:40 --> 05:46 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, that's different actually getting it done and you know, because I think everybody believe they had it had a legit chance to keep mailer.
05:47 --> 05:47 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.
05:47 --> 05:50 [SPEAKER_02]: We all thought that to trade for Donovan.
05:50 --> 05:50 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.
05:50 --> 05:52 [SPEAKER_02]: I think we all thought they had a chance to get that done.
05:53 --> 05:57 [SPEAKER_02]: But Kyle Tucker like, like, there was no conversation, right?
05:57 --> 05:59 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, unfortunately, you know, that that's kind of the way it is.
05:59 --> 06:02 [SPEAKER_02]: And we know that nothing's changed there with signing for agent hitters.
06:02 --> 06:03 [SPEAKER_02]: It's still very very difficult.
06:04 --> 06:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
06:04 --> 06:09 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's a difference between could they have done it financially and were they going to do it?
06:09 --> 06:10 [SPEAKER_00]: No, they were probably not going to do it.
06:10 --> 06:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.
06:11 --> 06:16 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's where the ownership versus front office plan comes into play come to completely different things.
06:16 --> 06:16 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
06:16 --> 06:20 [SPEAKER_02]: If I give you 10 dollars to make a steak dinner, it's going to be, it's not going to be steak, right?
06:21 --> 06:37 [SPEAKER_02]: It's going to be some other kind of kind of fake meat, sort of ground beef, you know, doctored up with some broccoli, you know, and that's what Jerry DePoto and Justin Honor have been doing, and they've kind of turned into some good things last four years, but yeah, it's really difficult to, like for the marriage to change,
06:37 --> 07:05 [SPEAKER_02]: like that narrative around them that they just don't have a chance to like I don't even know if it's possible I don't even know if it's possible from the did they go they go out they sign Robinson can know that big deal over pay right we know that was an overpaid versus the market and we actually know that for fact because the second biggest offer was under $200 million so we know that then they go out and they sign Nelson Cruz but it wasn't even that big of a contract they've extended players
07:06 --> 07:10 [SPEAKER_02]: I just, like, when you think about what's keeping hitters from coming to see us, never going to go away.
07:10 --> 07:19 [SPEAKER_02]: The weather, the way the ball travels, the ball park, you know, whether there's some sort of issue with the batters I or not, like, you know, 95% of it's just never going away.
07:19 --> 07:32 [SPEAKER_02]: They're just always going to be this club, which makes it kind of funny that they went out and early on in this regime went picture heavy early in the draft, you know, like I understand why people are wondering why they did that.
07:32 --> 07:33 [SPEAKER_02]: If it was so difficult to get hitters.
07:33 --> 07:34 [SPEAKER_02]: to come.
07:34 --> 07:41 [SPEAKER_02]: But I enter into every single off season, completely deleting every major offensive free agent.
07:42 --> 07:47 [SPEAKER_02]: And Josh Nailer was kind of the first exception to that in 10, 15 years, really.
07:47 --> 07:53 [SPEAKER_02]: I did not believe Kano was a remote possibility and cruised in become one until Kano was already there.
07:53 --> 07:54 [SPEAKER_02]: So,
07:53 --> 08:13 [SPEAKER_02]: yeah thinking talker was a possibility that's that's a that's a that's a tough one man like i'm not gonna say stupid but that's a tough one that's a great i say it's a great one but hey to matter opinion all right i just love that you had hope like i mean you know there's another only having hope right it's a Star Wars line rebellions or built on hope you got to have
08:14 --> 08:16 [SPEAKER_02]: Anyways, we're getting Star Wars quotes now.
08:17 --> 08:20 [SPEAKER_02]: The idea to deal with that a lot of TJD, you get the Star Wars quotes too.
08:20 --> 08:21 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, we talk about Star Wars all the time.
08:21 --> 08:24 [SPEAKER_01]: I thought I think I watched more Star Wars than he does.
08:24 --> 08:24 [SPEAKER_01]: Gotcha.
08:25 --> 08:25 [SPEAKER_00]: OK, yeah.
08:26 --> 08:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Stick it on for the agents though, since you brought up Nailer, how vital was it for the team to retain him this off season?
08:32 --> 08:34 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it turns out it was bigger than I thought at the time.
08:35 --> 08:45 [SPEAKER_02]: Um, obviously a big deal, you keep a good player, um, a player in his prime, a player that fits, um, that wants to be in town, um, that ballpark does not scare him at all.
08:46 --> 08:53 [SPEAKER_02]: Um, but it became bigger because I think the off season was, yeah, I think they barely got a passing grade for me.
08:54 --> 08:56 [SPEAKER_02]: They're still at least one bat short, I thought.
08:56 --> 09:06 [SPEAKER_02]: I love the Jose Ferrer acquisition, I love that, you get several shots to turn that guy into something he's never been before, but that he's flashed.
09:06 --> 09:07 [SPEAKER_02]: I like that.
09:07 --> 09:14 [SPEAKER_02]: It helps you avoid spending $10 million a year on the free agent market, those types, because you don't have it to spend.
09:15 --> 09:19 [SPEAKER_02]: But then you get to the end of the winner.
09:19 --> 09:23 [SPEAKER_02]: and they kind of race to get the Donovan deal done and you're still at least one back short.
09:23 --> 09:24 [SPEAKER_02]: You can argue there too, right?
09:25 --> 09:26 [SPEAKER_02]: Like we don't know what's going to happen right?
09:26 --> 09:28 [SPEAKER_02]: You feel lunar and what's going to happen to DH when Calarale is not DHing.
09:29 --> 09:39 [SPEAKER_02]: They could have problems in both of those spots and we're not even talking about what could happen if guys like Randy Rosarena and JP Crawford or both free agents to be take steps back.
09:39 --> 09:41 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, or get hurt like J.P. is right now.
09:41 --> 09:44 [SPEAKER_02]: Those are two guys that aren't in their prime really anymore.
09:44 --> 09:46 [SPEAKER_02]: They're 30 plus years old.
09:46 --> 09:47 [SPEAKER_02]: You just don't know what's going to happen to them.
09:47 --> 09:48 [SPEAKER_02]: J.P. had a bad year.
09:48 --> 09:49 [SPEAKER_02]: A couple of years back could happen again.
09:50 --> 09:52 [SPEAKER_02]: And now you might have three spots that need upgrade.
09:52 --> 09:56 [SPEAKER_02]: So it was huge to get nailer done for baseball reasons for 2026.
09:58 --> 10:00 [SPEAKER_02]: Let alone everything else, 2728.
10:00 --> 10:06 [SPEAKER_02]: And to kind of show, hey, we're still here and there are players that do want to play here and you can hit here.
10:06 --> 10:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, now I'm fascinated and we'll get to more of the actual 26 man roster talk here in a minute or two.
10:11 --> 10:17 [SPEAKER_00]: But since you mentioned that for you, the Mariners offseason only got a passing great or barely got a passing grade.
10:18 --> 10:24 [SPEAKER_00]: I feel like that's a little off the beaten path from what the, I guess cookie cutter grades have been for the Mariners this offseason.
10:24 --> 10:30 [SPEAKER_00]: TJ and I are not afraid to speak our minds, but we both gave them what we thought was a B plus offseason after the Donovan trade.
10:30 --> 10:33 [SPEAKER_00]: But you clearly don't seem to feel that way.
10:33 --> 10:40 [SPEAKER_00]: So if you were in the mayor's position, what would you have added if it was up to you for how you would have gotten them to a B plus A minus off season?
10:40 --> 10:44 [SPEAKER_02]: I think to get them to a B for me, you need one more everyday bat that's proven.
10:44 --> 10:51 [SPEAKER_02]: Even if you get a guy who's only in me around a year, I'll use a guy that wasn't really available, but fits this mold here just because he's off the top of my head.
10:51 --> 11:01 [SPEAKER_02]: Get a guy like Siasa Zukirian hat, whether that's DH or you play him in a corner outfield spot, a guy that can play there a guy you can leave in the line up every day and get production out of and just leave him alone.
11:01 --> 11:03 [SPEAKER_02]: That would have been huge because.
11:03 --> 11:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Now we have four players for two spots and we don't know what we're going to see from any of them.
11:08 --> 11:16 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, and that's two guys in right field, probably mostly going to be Rayleigh and Robless and Canzone and Ref Snyder or two others that can play right field.
11:17 --> 11:19 [SPEAKER_02]: But that also might see a bunch of DH time as well.
11:19 --> 11:20 [SPEAKER_02]: They're going to pinch it.
11:20 --> 11:24 [SPEAKER_02]: You have, when you have four players, you have two spots where you're essentially plattuning.
11:24 --> 11:43 [SPEAKER_02]: that really restricts your roster and you don't know what kind of production you're gonna get like if you just look on paper if everybody just repeats what they did last year and look at their splits it looks pretty good it just never works out that way and you're asking those four players to cover two positions that were covered a little differently last year right it was a little bit of a problem last year but DH was not
11:43 --> 11:48 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, D.H. was not when it wasn't cows, sometimes it was polanco, they mixed guys in there, they got production there, right?
11:49 --> 11:55 [SPEAKER_02]: And when you kind of couple that with some of the other things, like coal, young, unproven bat, we don't really know what we're going to see there.
11:55 --> 12:07 [SPEAKER_02]: And you had opportunities to go out in at least, you know, get somebody that was leg average or better for a year or two without breaking the bank and for you to see without breaking your farm system up anymore than you already did.
12:07 --> 12:08 [SPEAKER_02]: and you didn't do it, you know.
12:08 --> 12:12 [SPEAKER_02]: So they got CC minus grades for me over the last season.
12:12 --> 12:13 [SPEAKER_02]: I like the Donovan deal.
12:13 --> 12:14 [SPEAKER_02]: I like the Ferrargett.
12:14 --> 12:16 [SPEAKER_02]: They got the Nailer deal done.
12:16 --> 12:19 [SPEAKER_02]: This just wasn't enough else out there, you know, to kind of lean on.
12:19 --> 12:21 [SPEAKER_02]: So there's too much weight and see for me.
12:21 --> 12:28 [SPEAKER_02]: And when you're a team that's hoping the one in the world series, and everything else about your ball club suggest, you can get two and maybe even win the world series.
12:28 --> 12:29 [SPEAKER_02]: You gotta do more than that.
12:30 --> 12:32 [SPEAKER_02]: And I don't really think this came down purely to money either.
12:33 --> 12:39 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it came down to we don't want to take the risk of spending guys down in the farm system.
12:40 --> 12:41 [SPEAKER_02]: They didn't really like the cost.
12:41 --> 12:42 [SPEAKER_02]: They did the not even thing.
12:42 --> 12:43 [SPEAKER_02]: I thought it fit.
12:43 --> 12:45 [SPEAKER_02]: You get two years of him, the versatility there's amazing.
12:45 --> 12:51 [SPEAKER_02]: It's gonna help them next year in the year after having three spots you can start at, but they just needed at least one more.
12:51 --> 12:57 [SPEAKER_02]: If you'd thrown any in half or say a Suzuki in there for even one year, they would have got to be out of me.
12:58 --> 13:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Do you classify Donovan as an everyday bat?
13:01 --> 13:02 [SPEAKER_02]: Not really.
13:02 --> 13:04 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't even think that's how he's going to be used.
13:05 --> 13:12 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the impact he gives you is going to equal that because he's proving to be so good against right-handers.
13:12 --> 13:15 [SPEAKER_02]: But a third of the pitcher is he's going to see if not a little bit more, going to be lefties.
13:16 --> 13:18 [SPEAKER_02]: And he has a good with any consistency against lefties.
13:19 --> 13:22 [SPEAKER_02]: So there's in a way, yes, because the overall impact is going to be pretty good.
13:22 --> 13:24 [SPEAKER_02]: You're getting a two and a half win minimum player.
13:24 --> 13:26 [SPEAKER_02]: He's been a three-win player before.
13:26 --> 13:31 [SPEAKER_02]: That's a pretty good guy that you can throw
13:31 --> 13:39 [SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, there's going to be some times where you're wondering, why Dan Wilson isn't getting pinched, happy with Brendan Donovan.
13:39 --> 13:43 [SPEAKER_02]: And it's probably because you can't pinch it for everybody, you know, every single time.
13:43 --> 13:45 [SPEAKER_02]: You'll have so many options on the bench.
13:45 --> 13:47 [SPEAKER_02]: So yes and no on that one.
13:47 --> 13:50 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a good question because he has struggle against lefties.
13:50 --> 13:53 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's why he didn't fetch more in a trade.
13:53 --> 13:57 [SPEAKER_02]: That's why they couldn't demand a Kdan or Sinner Orion Sloan because
13:57 --> 14:02 [SPEAKER_02]: He's not that every day guy you just should leave alone somewhere at the top of the order and don't worry about it.
14:02 --> 14:08 [SPEAKER_02]: You absolutely should worry about when to let if Garrett Crochet is out there and Brendan Donovan is starting like that doesn't look great.
14:08 --> 14:09 [SPEAKER_02]: That's not a good matchup.
14:09 --> 14:10 [SPEAKER_02]: He should not be leading off.
14:10 --> 14:11 [SPEAKER_02]: He should be hitting seven.
14:11 --> 14:11 [SPEAKER_02]: There's something.
14:12 --> 14:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Do you think Josh Nailer figured out anything about Timole Park?
14:16 --> 14:22 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know, see, the one caveat here is like sometimes there's just types of hitters.
14:22 --> 14:35 [SPEAKER_02]: When you are a high contact hitter like nailer is when you hit a lot of line drives you don't hit a lot of fly balls, you're like at least on the surface it's going to look like you're going to be flying at Safeco or excuse me at team mobile.
14:35 --> 14:37 [SPEAKER_02]: Like that's been a conversation since it was Safeco, right?
14:37 --> 14:38 [SPEAKER_02]: We've talked about that.
14:38 --> 14:42 [SPEAKER_02]: More line drive guys, fewer guys that are strikeout hit the ball in the air, we saw
14:42 --> 14:50 [SPEAKER_02]: Amy Osouris, struggle at team mobile, we saw Teasker Hernandez, struggle at team mobile, and that's just in the last couple of years.
14:50 --> 14:54 [SPEAKER_02]: I do wonder though if the batter's eye is a problem for some guys and just not for others.
14:54 --> 14:58 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's a problem for certain righties and not really for lefties much.
14:58 --> 15:00 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's a problem for maybe it's a height thing.
15:00 --> 15:02 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it depends on where you stand in the box.
15:02 --> 15:04 [SPEAKER_02]: We know the time of day can impact that.
15:04 --> 15:07 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if there's a solution that or not.
15:07 --> 15:09 [SPEAKER_02]: But it's pretty clear that he's in that problem with it.
15:10 --> 15:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Like he's just as confidence.
15:11 --> 15:12 [SPEAKER_02]: There's nothing getting in the way.
15:12 --> 15:22 [SPEAKER_02]: He also is kind of one of those players who knows who he is and can deal with adversity.
15:22 --> 15:23 [SPEAKER_02]: Like he's gone in slumps before.
15:24 --> 15:25 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, he's had that problem.
15:25 --> 15:34 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know that like when you compare a teosca Hernandez from a mental standpoint, you know, how he deals with things.
15:35 --> 15:36 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's pretty clear now.
15:36 --> 15:44 [SPEAKER_02]: Nailor could go over 29 with 14 strikeouts and you're going to see a completely different approach to dealing with that versus a teosca Hernandez, a little bit more emotional.
15:44 --> 15:54 [SPEAKER_02]: It's going to get a little bit more frustrated and that's not, you know, trying to be, you know, negative or, or say the derogative things about tausker and ants, they just handle things differently.
15:54 --> 16:02 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think you just need hitters that are like Brendan Donovan that are like Josh Nailer who deal with adversity a little bit differently and they're different kinds of hitters.
16:02 --> 16:08 [SPEAKER_02]: They're not relying on getting the ball up in the air on a consistent basis and sacrificing contact.
16:08 --> 16:09 [SPEAKER_02]: to do it.
16:09 --> 16:10 [SPEAKER_02]: That was Hernandez.
16:10 --> 16:12 [SPEAKER_02]: That's that's Julio to to some extent.
16:13 --> 16:16 [SPEAKER_02]: But the funny thing about Julio is the one gripe we have.
16:16 --> 16:17 [SPEAKER_02]: He hits too many damn ground balls.
16:17 --> 16:21 [SPEAKER_02]: So he's really not the same guy as Teosca Hernandez or Union.
16:21 --> 16:33 [SPEAKER_02]: So it is kind of funny though how we it's been all this time and we really don't know what it is you know about some hitters and it gets in their head.
16:33 --> 16:37 [SPEAKER_02]: We don't really can't really point to it except it's just a kind of mental thing
16:38 --> 16:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Let me follow up on TJ's question with one more thing about Nailer.
16:41 --> 16:44 [SPEAKER_00]: Do you think him hitting in team I will park in August and September?
16:44 --> 16:45 [SPEAKER_00]: Did a lot for him?
16:45 --> 16:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Versus when he gets a taste of team I will park in April?
16:49 --> 16:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Could it look different?
16:50 --> 17:08 [SPEAKER_02]: sure but you know yeah the numbers are going to look different like he's not like he was unbelievable right and and we know that the warmer weather helps right but like I was saying like nailers a guy who's played in that cold weather before in in Cleveland that's not exactly a band box in Cleveland
17:08 --> 17:16 [SPEAKER_02]: So, and he doesn't rely on the ball traveling through the air that much, just hit a much of line drives, right, and hope for the best.
17:16 --> 17:26 [SPEAKER_02]: If he's sitting too 50 at the end of April, heading into May where you start to get where the weather and the air is a little bit different and certainly in June.
17:26 --> 17:27 [SPEAKER_02]: He's going to be fine.
17:27 --> 17:38 [SPEAKER_02]: But if you're Teasker Hernandez and hitting 250 or 260 is a good year for you, and you're hitting 2-11 with a 32% strikeout rate entering May, that's a different story.
17:38 --> 17:40 [SPEAKER_02]: Your frustration level is going to be different.
17:40 --> 17:42 [SPEAKER_02]: It's just because they're completely different kinds of hitters.
17:43 --> 17:45 [SPEAKER_02]: Brendan Donovan is basically Josh Nailov with less power.
17:45 --> 18:01 [SPEAKER_02]: right there's some other differences you know nailer actually chases more which is weird you know yeah side of the high chase rate um but he also knows who he is and what he can do but their line drive guys their contact guys um the relatively aggressive hitters they're not trying to walk 15% of the time
18:01 --> 18:21 [SPEAKER_02]: That's what Seattle needed more of and yeah, it's it is weird that we haven't solved the team mobile thing gran it the ball is not going to travel, but there are guys that just completely fall off the cliffs sometimes, you know, extended periods of time and you know, so we're just probably the best recent idea, you know, the example there, but, um,
18:21 --> 18:23 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the cold weather's, it's different.
18:23 --> 18:24 [SPEAKER_02]: It's different.
18:24 --> 18:34 [SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, we think that and, you know, we suggest Hayn Nailer hasn't done this whole two three months of cold weather and in Seattle at the beginning of the year.
18:35 --> 18:42 [SPEAKER_02]: But again, he's not the kind of hitter, the high strike out, you know, you know, bad chases on sliders down.
18:42 --> 18:45 [SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't do that a whole lot and he doesn't rely on the ball traveling in the air that much.
18:45 --> 18:46 [SPEAKER_02]: So I think he's going to be fine.
18:46 --> 18:48 [SPEAKER_02]: So even a bad month or two,
18:48 --> 18:51 [SPEAKER_02]: It looks like, you know, 253, 2400 or something for Josh Nailer.
18:52 --> 18:54 [SPEAKER_02]: That's a little easier for the player to go, okay, I can work with that.
18:54 --> 18:55 [SPEAKER_02]: I can build from that.
18:56 --> 19:12 [SPEAKER_01]: I find it interesting we're talking about flybowl hitters versus line drive hitters because one of the concerns I have going into this year is that if you look back at these last four years Jason, the more productive overall offensive teams the manors have had have hit more home runs and hit more home runs you need to hit more flyballs.
19:12 --> 19:15 [SPEAKER_01]: This team's not rejected to hit as many home runs as they did last year.
19:16 --> 19:18 [SPEAKER_01]: Are you worried there could be some offensive regression because of that?
19:18 --> 19:26 [SPEAKER_02]: There could be, there could be, and I think that's why you have to kind of, that's another reason why I think about, okay, what are you doing in right field?
19:26 --> 19:34 [SPEAKER_02]: Again, an opportunity to go at least find an answer either at DH or right field without spending a much money without spending, you know, much top 10 prospects and they didn't do it.
19:34 --> 19:42 [SPEAKER_02]: They went the platoon route could work could work ref Snyder has hit lefties About as well as dawnman is hit righties, right?
19:42 --> 19:51 [SPEAKER_02]: So you have to buy that to some extent, you know, he's gonna be above average there You know, what happens against righties can can zone do anything like you did a year go can Rayleigh bounce back a lot of questions there
19:51 --> 20:18 [SPEAKER_02]: Right and some of those guys do like really hit for no power last year was the weirdest thing you just have to buy that the The core injury that he had just completely sat this power and kill the season But that's like I was gonna have 15 20 homers even if he's only playing 60% of the time So maybe get a little bit of a bit of a bump there my argument here is this team is going to make more contact Hit for higher average and get on base more You can easily make up for like a loss of 40 bombs by doing that
20:18 --> 20:27 [SPEAKER_02]: Absolutely, you can't, and it's the better, more predictable, it's easier to see them being consistent that way too.
20:27 --> 20:31 [SPEAKER_02]: You can score two runs one night, ten the next, and you go one and one.
20:32 --> 20:40 [SPEAKER_02]: But if you score five one night and five the next, you have a better chance to go two and those two games, and that's the same over any sample size throughout the season, and that's obviously what they're trying to do.
20:41 --> 20:43 [SPEAKER_00]: could Hulio make up for some of those home runs.
20:43 --> 20:48 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's basically my segue here of saying, is this the year form for as good as he's already been?
20:49 --> 20:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Can this be the year we see the eight nine when year out of Hulio?
20:52 --> 20:54 [SPEAKER_00]: After what we saw in the second half of the last one.
20:55 --> 20:57 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's all going to come offensively, right?
20:57 --> 20:59 [SPEAKER_02]: He's already pretty lead on the basis.
20:59 --> 21:00 [SPEAKER_02]: He's already pretty lead out in the center field.
21:00 --> 21:04 [SPEAKER_02]: So when you're talking about eight nine 10 when seasons, it's got to come with the plate.
21:04 --> 21:14 [SPEAKER_02]: He's on this path I think to incrementally get better in important areas without making drastic changes to a swing.
21:14 --> 21:16 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that's on the menu.
21:16 --> 21:18 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that's what they started with last year.
21:18 --> 21:21 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's Edna Martinez and Kevin Sites are saying, hey, you're a big leader.
21:22 --> 21:29 [SPEAKER_02]: We need to avoid taking risk with your swing that might send you backwards.
21:29 --> 21:36 [SPEAKER_02]: Because there's no difference in this swing and the biggest thing with Julio and run production extra-based power Things like that is he it's a balling around too much
21:37 --> 21:44 [SPEAKER_02]: I haven't seen anything in the swing mechanics in the WBC or down in Arizona that suggests he's done anything different to do that.
21:45 --> 21:51 [SPEAKER_02]: So it still looks right now that the approach this year for him is just like last year, get a little bit better at the chase.
21:51 --> 21:53 [SPEAKER_02]: Don't chase as badly as you have before.
21:53 --> 21:55 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he did a better job of that last year.
21:55 --> 21:58 [SPEAKER_02]: We saw the strikeout rate, you know, drop a little bit.
21:58 --> 22:03 [SPEAKER_02]: We saw certain areas, one thing that used to drive me crazy, still does when I see it, but he did it far less last year.
22:03 --> 22:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Guy has a really good two-seamer throws a two-seamer that looks like it's going to be middle-in.
22:08 --> 22:10 [SPEAKER_02]: You know he has a good two-seamer.
22:10 --> 22:12 [SPEAKER_02]: You know that pistol looks like it's going to be middle-in.
22:12 --> 22:13 [SPEAKER_02]: It's going to run in off the plate.
22:13 --> 22:14 [SPEAKER_02]: You can't do anything with that.
22:14 --> 22:15 [SPEAKER_02]: What are you swinging at that?
22:15 --> 22:19 [SPEAKER_02]: Julio drives me crazy when he does that more than the slider away.
22:19 --> 22:22 [SPEAKER_02]: He didn't do that much last year that did not happen as much last year.
22:23 --> 22:33 [SPEAKER_02]: And if you look at the zones and the chase rates, he knocked a couple of percentage points off two or three of those zones in terms of chasing in terms of what he did with two strikes as well.
22:34 --> 22:37 [SPEAKER_02]: His slugging percentage with two strikes went up 56 points last year.
22:38 --> 22:42 [SPEAKER_02]: It's still not good, but you look around the league when I hit or asked two strikes, the slugging percentage is very good, right?
22:42 --> 22:46 [SPEAKER_02]: You're protecting a little bit, you're chasing a little bit, the pitchers in control.
22:46 --> 22:54 [SPEAKER_02]: But he's looked 288 in 2024 with two strikes and he added 56 points to that last year, and some of that is better pitch selection.
22:55 --> 23:01 [SPEAKER_02]: If he does that again this year, he's going to be up in that 135 to 140 range WRC plus wise.
23:02 --> 23:16 [SPEAKER_02]: And while that doesn't necessarily make him a 9 or 10 win player, that's going to add a win and a half at least, you know, to his total depending on how the base running and the defense hold up.
23:16 --> 23:23 [SPEAKER_02]: I just don't know that this is going to be the, I think we're still going to see incremental improvements with Julio this year.
23:24 --> 23:28 [SPEAKER_02]: A few of those homers could come from Julio, but we're going to have to see, you know, what happens.
23:30 --> 23:31 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't see any swing changes.
23:31 --> 23:37 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't see depth and box changes that are significant enough to suggest.
23:37 --> 23:41 [SPEAKER_02]: He's much more easily going to produce line drives and fly balls versus ground balls.
23:41 --> 23:43 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he's still going to hit ground balls and it's going to drive us crazy.
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24:49 --> 24:57 [SPEAKER_01]: To remind ourselves and some of our listeners, why was he more productive offensively his rookie year than he has been the past three years?
24:57 --> 24:58 [SPEAKER_01]: What was he doing differently?
24:59 --> 25:20 [SPEAKER_02]: Uh, I think that was a lot of he didn't know any better to some extent and the league didn't know him to some extent, what was he going to chase on a regular basis, what was he right, like what was he going to hit well on a regular basis, there was so much we didn't know and he spent so little time in the upper minors, right, didn't play in AAA.
25:21 --> 25:25 [SPEAKER_02]: So you only had double A and then he gets to the big leagues.
25:25 --> 25:32 [SPEAKER_02]: Notice that, I believe this is, I don't know the numbers up in front of me, I believe his rookie year was his highest walk rate of his career.
25:33 --> 25:40 [SPEAKER_02]: And while it hasn't sunk big time, it's down like, you know, one to one and a half percentage points, I believe down around 6.2 the last couple years.
25:40 --> 25:43 [SPEAKER_02]: So he was walking more that year, a little bit more patient.
25:43 --> 25:53 [SPEAKER_02]: And I just think now, the league is found ways to get him out in the zone, to get him to chase in the zone on pitches that he really can't do much with, and he's still trying to figure those things out.
25:55 --> 25:57 [SPEAKER_00]: What's a reasonable expectation for CalRally?
25:58 --> 26:07 [SPEAKER_00]: Somewhere between, what he did in 22, 23 and 24, and his season last year, like I'm getting somewhere in between there, what's that pair of expectation?
26:08 --> 26:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think it depends on what you're trying to accomplish with this.
26:11 --> 26:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Are you just trying to predict it to guess it?
26:14 --> 26:20 [SPEAKER_02]: Are you trying to kind of determine what the rest of the team has to do to kind of make up for it?
26:20 --> 26:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Because I wouldn't bet on anything more than what CalRolley did a couple of years ago, except for one thing.
26:26 --> 26:30 [SPEAKER_02]: The batting average, which obviously impacts the on-base percentage.
26:30 --> 26:33 [SPEAKER_02]: It's tough for me to see cow hitting 210 to 220 again.
26:34 --> 26:37 [SPEAKER_02]: He was sitting 260 for a good portion last year and ended up hitting what 247.
26:39 --> 26:41 [SPEAKER_02]: That's a number when I'll talk about batting hours a lot.
26:41 --> 26:42 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't anyway.
26:42 --> 26:44 [SPEAKER_02]: That's a number that's pretty important and pretty telling to cow.
26:44 --> 26:45 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's up to cow.
26:45 --> 26:51 [SPEAKER_02]: Do you want to hit 260 with 30 homers or do you want to hit 220 and maybe try to hit 40 or 50?
26:51 --> 26:54 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think 60's probably out of the question, but we thought that last year too.
26:54 --> 26:57 [SPEAKER_02]: So I don't want to completely throw that in the zero chance pile.
26:57 --> 27:00 [SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, we have to expect home run regression.
27:01 --> 27:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, my big thing there too is let's say cow hits 240 on base percentage is about the same batting average about the same even if just a little bit of a drop.
27:08 --> 27:17 [SPEAKER_02]: It's not like the 30 homers that we're going to see drop from cow from 60 to 30 are all outs, right?
27:17 --> 27:20 [SPEAKER_02]: So maybe those are walks, maybe those are singles, maybe their doubles.
27:21 --> 27:22 [SPEAKER_02]: So I think it's really up to cow.
27:22 --> 27:25 [SPEAKER_02]: We'll kind of hit her to see actually want to be.
27:25 --> 27:32 [SPEAKER_02]: And I find it just fascinating that the basically is entire improvement last year over the year before it was right at it.
27:33 --> 27:51 [SPEAKER_02]: absolutely crazy what he did right handed and you know that's going to be very telling I think a couple of months in is going to tell us say look what he's doing right handed maybe the fact that he's doing this again tells us 40 pluses legit and if he's not maybe he just kind of reverts back to the reform what do you think you need to get better at
27:53 --> 27:55 [SPEAKER_02]: That's tough too.
27:55 --> 27:56 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that's all about attack plan.
27:57 --> 28:00 [SPEAKER_02]: He's a guy who wants to hit the home run every single time with the plate and I understand it.
28:00 --> 28:04 [SPEAKER_02]: He's got that kind of power both sides of the plate and hit the ball out to left center as a lefty.
28:05 --> 28:14 [SPEAKER_02]: He's mostly pull as a righty, but we've seen him get better at that as well being able to hit a few doubles as a righty, even a couple of home runs as a righty that were on the other side of center field last year.
28:15 --> 28:20 [SPEAKER_02]: To me, it's aggression early in the count because he's hoping to get a fastball.
28:20 --> 28:22 [SPEAKER_02]: And when he does, he offers at it.
28:22 --> 28:24 [SPEAKER_02]: And sometimes it's just not a great location.
28:24 --> 28:30 [SPEAKER_02]: And it's not really about pitch recognition, like pitch type, it's about finding that location that works for him.
28:31 --> 28:33 [SPEAKER_02]: And doing that with two swings makes it harder.
28:33 --> 28:40 [SPEAKER_02]: I was talking about this yesterday with founding Celston, you know, you get a 19-year-old K with two swings, it's hard.
28:40 --> 28:45 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, you're looking for that pitch, you know, down and in, that's low and away, you know, on the other side of the plate.
28:45 --> 28:50 [SPEAKER_02]: So here we are, cow, 28, 29 years old,
28:50 --> 29:14 [SPEAKER_02]: If it were me, and I were choosing without, you know, knowing what the plan is and how Cal thinks about is it bats really all that much, I would hope that Cal goes into this thinking, I want to hit 260, I'm going to hit 30 homers on accident, I want to get the best batting average, make the most contact, you know, I can without sacrificing, you know, power and get on base a lot and see what happens there rather than I'm going to hit 60 again.
29:14 --> 29:18 [SPEAKER_02]: because he went, he's gone into every season in the big leagues, trying to hit 60 home run.
29:18 --> 29:20 [SPEAKER_02]: It just happened last year.
29:20 --> 29:24 [SPEAKER_02]: So he's always willing to take his walk and I think that's going to be really, really important this year.
29:24 --> 29:34 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's another reason why I've kind of reversed my thought on cowhitting second instead of third, because Rodriguez Donovan's going to get on and Julio's going to ground into a double play.
29:35 --> 29:38 [SPEAKER_02]: More often than Calis, hilariously because Julio's a lot faster than Cal.
29:39 --> 29:42 [SPEAKER_02]: I've reversed that and I think Cal is just going to be able to draw that walk a little bit more.
29:42 --> 29:44 [SPEAKER_02]: So it just really depends on what
29:44 --> 30:00 [SPEAKER_00]: I think part of what peaks my curiosity with that question, paired with the Julio question we just asked you a couple minutes ago, is if Julio was going to take the big jump this year, I'm just kind of curious and thinking out loud about how much value does Julio have to make up when Cal likely has some regressions.
30:00 --> 30:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Still probably going to, I mean, we'll still almost definitely have a good year, but how much does Julio have to make up or the wind just made up by the pieces they've added to the roster and getting a full season of nailer and this team being leaps and bounds better than it was at the start of last year.
30:12 --> 30:21 [SPEAKER_02]: Right, what was who the last year in terms of wins about to play almost six, if you use the fan grasp version, I think it was almost six, like five, seven, five, eight or something like that.
30:21 --> 30:23 [SPEAKER_02]: And he was a 126 WRC plus.
30:23 --> 30:26 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's reasonable to expect him to get over 130, maybe even up to 135.
30:27 --> 30:32 [SPEAKER_02]: But expecting or thinking that it's probable that he's gonna get up into the 150s, I don't see it.
30:32 --> 30:40 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the value is going to come from having Nailer all year, having Donovan all year, getting something from Koliang.
30:40 --> 30:40 [SPEAKER_02]: Because that's the thing.
30:40 --> 30:46 [SPEAKER_02]: If they don't get something average or better from Koliang, they basically have another hole in their lineup to deal with.
30:46 --> 30:48 [SPEAKER_02]: And they might have a hole in right field in a DH anyway.
30:48 --> 30:51 [SPEAKER_02]: That's why gave them a barely passing grade over the off season.
30:51 --> 30:52 [SPEAKER_02]: There are too many whatiffs.
30:52 --> 30:53 [SPEAKER_02]: There's too much hope.
30:53 --> 30:59 [SPEAKER_02]: too much of the jacks of Rensick approach to things, you know, especially considering where they are.
30:59 --> 31:00 [SPEAKER_02]: No, don't be wrong.
31:00 --> 31:00 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a better team.
31:00 --> 31:02 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a significantly better front office.
31:02 --> 31:10 [SPEAKER_02]: It absolutely chaps my hide that every time you see a GM ranking out there, Prelar is in the top 10 and cashmen is ranked ahead of Jerry DePoto.
31:11 --> 31:12 [SPEAKER_02]: Don't get me started on that.
31:12 --> 31:24 [SPEAKER_02]: But I think they're in a spot where they can buy themselves some time and see what some of these guys do and then make some midseason, you know, adjustments and changes if they need to.
31:25 --> 31:28 [SPEAKER_01]: Do you think Cole Young is going to be a hole?
31:28 --> 31:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Do you think he's going to be average?
31:29 --> 31:30 [SPEAKER_01]: What do you think?
31:30 --> 31:32 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that a pretty good chance to be around the average.
31:32 --> 31:36 [SPEAKER_02]: I think there's some ups and downs, but I'm not, I'm not a spring training guy.
31:36 --> 31:41 [SPEAKER_02]: I certainly don't look at stats in spring training, but he has found the barrel a lot in spring training.
31:42 --> 31:58 [SPEAKER_02]: And that suggests to me that he's made some adjustments, made some improvements, we'll see how that plays on a daily basis against big league pitching, because even in spring training, you might get 50, 60, 70 plate appearances, but a lot of times they're against triple egg guys, depth guys.
31:58 --> 32:01 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, guys that are going to get cut from their organization and up somewhere else.
32:03 --> 32:03 [SPEAKER_02]: So we'll see how that plays.
32:04 --> 32:05 [SPEAKER_02]: But he got a taste of it last year.
32:06 --> 32:07 [SPEAKER_02]: He's a very determined guy.
32:07 --> 32:10 [SPEAKER_02]: He's added strength every single year since the draft.
32:12 --> 32:13 [SPEAKER_02]: And I've always said you guys might have seen me on social.
32:13 --> 32:16 [SPEAKER_02]: I've always hated the Adam Frater Cop with Colleon.
32:17 --> 32:18 [SPEAKER_02]: It's always been garbage.
32:18 --> 32:20 [SPEAKER_02]: Adam Frater is five eight.
32:20 --> 32:24 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, Cole Young is a clean 510 and with Cleats on he's almost as tall as I am.
32:25 --> 32:29 [SPEAKER_02]: So this is not a tiny guy that needs to hit the ball on the ground and hit line drives.
32:29 --> 32:30 [SPEAKER_02]: He actually can't drive the ball.
32:30 --> 32:32 [SPEAKER_02]: We've seen that right now.
32:32 --> 32:39 [SPEAKER_02]: That's not going to play the same at team mobile, but we've seen that that there's there's more strength there he's going to find the gaps a little bit more
32:39 --> 32:46 [SPEAKER_02]: Whether it happens now or next year or we see a little bit of an up and down a little bit of both this year I don't know.
32:46 --> 33:01 [SPEAKER_02]: It's really hard to be consistent You know particularly when you've never done it before and one of the most difficult things to project and analyze is when does a player that's had a lot of success in the minors Have some of that success on any sort of consistent basis at the big league level
33:01 --> 33:03 [SPEAKER_02]: It's really difficult to do.
33:04 --> 33:05 [SPEAKER_02]: No team is good at it.
33:05 --> 33:06 [SPEAKER_02]: You hope.
33:06 --> 33:07 [SPEAKER_02]: You hope that he's ready.
33:07 --> 33:08 [SPEAKER_02]: You hope that you've attacked the right things.
33:08 --> 33:11 [SPEAKER_02]: You hope that he thinks about things the right way.
33:11 --> 33:23 [SPEAKER_02]: You hope that he can handle hitting 190 for the first three weeks and still climb out of it and not dwell on it and not, you know, kind of get out of your your your ways and and impact how you're going to perform in the future.
33:23 --> 33:25 [SPEAKER_02]: But Cole Young is one of those questions, right?
33:25 --> 33:27 [SPEAKER_02]: Cole Young is absolutely one of those questions.
33:27 --> 33:28 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
33:28 --> 33:54 [SPEAKER_01]: Do you think that power eventually will be a positive development for him or is it going to be a detractor for what made him so good as a prospect and I'm going to make a comparison here that I think will make a little bit more sense to both of you, I think of Jared Kalnik as a prospect when he was at his peak in 2019 is more of a gap header not as much of a bulky whole power header that he was when he finally debuted in twenty one twenty two and twenty three.
33:54 --> 34:03 [SPEAKER_01]: Cole doesn't look like that, but Cole young went from ten home run, one ten OPS plus Ish hitter at like double A.
34:03 --> 34:05 [SPEAKER_01]: To last year, I mean, he had the longest home run on the team.
34:06 --> 34:09 [SPEAKER_01]: And he's hitting ball's 480 in spring training.
34:09 --> 34:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
34:09 --> 34:10 [SPEAKER_01]: What do you think?
34:10 --> 34:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Here's what I like about it.
34:11 --> 34:13 [SPEAKER_02]: His swing path hasn't changed that much.
34:13 --> 34:14 [SPEAKER_02]: He's driving the ball.
34:14 --> 34:16 [SPEAKER_02]: There aren't tons of flyballs.
34:16 --> 34:21 [SPEAKER_02]: I think even in the game on was it's Sunday or Saturday, I can't remember which day it was.
34:22 --> 34:27 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he went over, but he hit some line drives to the outfield for outs.
34:28 --> 34:29 [SPEAKER_02]: They weren't lazy flyballs, right?
34:29 --> 34:35 [SPEAKER_02]: Like he got wood on it, mostly line drives, and that's his thing when he hits home runs, they're driven.
34:36 --> 34:39 [SPEAKER_02]: They're not these skyballs.
34:39 --> 34:43 [SPEAKER_02]: 50% of the time and starts getting these and filled, you know, higher and filled flyball rates.
34:44 --> 34:49 [SPEAKER_02]: That's when you know there's like an approach problem, attack plan problem, maybe even a swing issue that it needs to climb out of.
34:49 --> 34:50 [SPEAKER_02]: And we haven't seen that yet.
34:50 --> 34:52 [SPEAKER_02]: It's essentially the same.
34:52 --> 34:53 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he knows who he is.
34:54 --> 34:55 [SPEAKER_02]: He knows he can drive the ball.
34:56 --> 34:58 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think it helps him more than her to at least for now.
34:58 --> 35:09 [SPEAKER_02]: The adjustment that he wants pitchers to make is be more careful with me because I'm not conswing at bad pitches, so therefore I'm going to get the 2-1-3-1-3-0 more often.
35:10 --> 35:18 [SPEAKER_02]: That's the message you're sending to pitchers when you can drive the ball at the ball, park a little bit more than just a punch and duty kind of guy.
35:18 --> 35:23 [SPEAKER_02]: You'll throw Adam Fraser strikes all day, and Cole Young does not want to be that guy.
35:23 --> 35:24 [SPEAKER_02]: He wants to be able to draw walks.
35:25 --> 35:31 [SPEAKER_00]: which is why hitting the fastballs is going to be so crucial for him this year because last year he really struggled with hitting the fastball.
35:31 --> 35:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, you can't take spring training results too seriously, but I think there's something that's encouraging about the fact he's been time it up heaters a lot better down in Arizona.
35:40 --> 35:44 [SPEAKER_02]: Sure, and you know, it's tough to gauge like where they good fastballs, right?
35:44 --> 35:45 [SPEAKER_02]: Like that always comes into play too.
35:46 --> 35:52 [SPEAKER_02]: But not getting caught in between, like understanding what pitchers are trying to do to you, sometimes
35:52 --> 36:02 [SPEAKER_02]: And the hitters that tend to succeed anyway, we just talked about Julio in this way, are just massive, they have a massive advantage in physical tools.
36:02 --> 36:05 [SPEAKER_02]: Like, Col Young does not have elite bat speed, right?
36:06 --> 36:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Julio Rodriguez does, right?
36:08 --> 36:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Those guys have an advantage.
36:09 --> 36:17 [SPEAKER_02]: They can make up for some of the other things, the things that are mental, pitch recognition, pitch selection strikes on judgment, things of that nature.
36:17 --> 36:19 [SPEAKER_02]: They can make up for that because they have massive bat speed.
36:19 --> 36:20 [SPEAKER_02]: They can,
36:20 --> 36:27 [SPEAKER_02]: you know, if a guy's got a good cutter and he's throwing at 92, they can actually sit cutter and still be okay if the guy throws 97 mile or four steamer.
36:27 --> 36:28 [SPEAKER_02]: Cole Young not so much, right?
36:29 --> 36:34 [SPEAKER_02]: So he knows who he is though and until that it looks like he's trying to be someone he's not, I wouldn't worry about the power thing.
36:34 --> 36:36 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the power is coming the way that it should.
36:36 --> 36:39 [SPEAKER_00]: I've got one more position player question for you.
36:39 --> 36:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Unless TJ's got any more after that.
36:40 --> 36:43 [SPEAKER_00]: I figured after this one, we could switch to pictures.
36:43 --> 36:54 [SPEAKER_00]: But while we got you on here, I figured we got to ask, especially as somebody who's a big prospect guy, within reasonable expectations, what does a successful rookie year look like for Cold Emerson?
36:55 --> 36:57 [SPEAKER_02]: Uh, it's a good question.
36:58 --> 37:00 [SPEAKER_02]: I think just being average at the plate would be a successful season.
37:01 --> 37:04 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he's going to be an asset in the field, whether they ask him play third or short or second.
37:05 --> 37:06 [SPEAKER_02]: Uh, he'll be at least average there.
37:06 --> 37:08 [SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't have a lot of experience at third or second.
37:09 --> 37:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Um, running being average.
37:12 --> 37:14 [SPEAKER_02]: It is, you know, because I think we're going to see some ups and downs.
37:14 --> 37:16 [SPEAKER_02]: And I, I mentioned and coal young is included in this.
37:17 --> 37:19 [SPEAKER_02]: If coal young starts the year.
37:19 --> 37:37 [SPEAKER_02]: any struggles right and then he's okay and he shows has some you know has a has a good week or two the overall numbers still might not be good if he ends the year and he's like a 94 WRC plus hitter but he was a 70 the first two months of the season you're gonna feel pretty good about that season even though the overall numbers don't look great right you're gonna be like cool youngs a dude
37:37 --> 37:42 [SPEAKER_02]: struggled early for a couple months, the last four months of the season, he's been good and more consistent.
37:42 --> 37:44 [SPEAKER_02]: The same thing could happen for Emerson.
37:46 --> 37:47 [SPEAKER_02]: Emerson is really interesting.
37:47 --> 37:50 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think he's near as ready as some people think he is.
37:51 --> 37:57 [SPEAKER_02]: I think when a pitcher goes up there who is either seen him or really understands what he's trying to do,
37:57 --> 38:17 [SPEAKER_02]: He'll he'll struggle and just like we saw Cole Young in the big leagues last year and I would rather see Emerson go to AAA and he's going to to go to AAA stay down there a couple of months no matter what the numbers look like Whether he's hitting 220 with no power or he's hitting 350 with power to go down there for for a couple of months
38:17 --> 38:32 [SPEAKER_02]: enough to give pitchers a second and third look at him so he can learn to deal with that because you don't really get a whole lot of that with guys that have like you think about what's happening in the California League and even the Northwest League from a from a pitcher standpoint.
38:32 --> 38:40 [SPEAKER_02]: The turnover doesn't give you the opportunity to see the same pitchers two, three, four, five times as often as it would in some of the upper levels and certainly the big leagues.
38:41 --> 38:43 [SPEAKER_02]: Then you got to think about the talent level.
38:43 --> 38:47 [SPEAKER_02]: What was actually going on in your guys that
38:47 --> 38:51 [SPEAKER_02]: But guys that have fastballs and plus sliders, or they're still working on their slider, right?
38:51 --> 38:57 [SPEAKER_02]: And hardly ever, you're going to see a three-pitch starter that shows well with all three pitches.
38:58 --> 39:00 [SPEAKER_02]: And even if you do, maybe in Everett, right?
39:00 --> 39:06 [SPEAKER_02]: If Kate Anderson starts in Everett, you got a guy that has four pitches that has pretty decent control command.
39:06 --> 39:10 [SPEAKER_02]: But you're only going to see that guy once a month.
39:10 --> 39:17 [SPEAKER_02]: But then, how about a guy that, if you're Emerson, you're facing a bunch of righties, too?
39:17 --> 39:19 [SPEAKER_02]: How many lefties are you seeing that do that, right?
39:20 --> 39:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Even if Emerson was going to start this year and ever it, there'd be probably one guy in that league that had at least three pitches that he could command.
39:26 --> 39:28 [SPEAKER_02]: And a guy would be on his team, right?
39:28 --> 39:31 [SPEAKER_02]: So that's what the time in the miners actually does for these hitters.
39:31 --> 39:40 [SPEAKER_02]: It gives them opportunities to come across all the things that he's eventually going to come across and fail in the miners first,
39:40 --> 39:46 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the Jackson holiday situation is probably the best example.
39:47 --> 39:55 [SPEAKER_02]: I think if holiday stays down in the miners for another couple of months, they probably could have avoided this extended or we're not getting out of them what we thought.
39:55 --> 40:00 [SPEAKER_02]: We've saw a lot of guys over the years here in Seattle rushed to the big leagues.
40:00 --> 40:02 [SPEAKER_02]: or not get sent back when they should have.
40:02 --> 40:07 [SPEAKER_02]: Like Zanino was both rushed and then not sent back and left there for long enough.
40:07 --> 40:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Acle should have been sent back, right?
40:09 --> 40:19 [SPEAKER_02]: You probably could say the same thing about Hazard's Montero and Bryce Miller and guys like or excuse me, Brad Miller and guys like that who probably needed to go back for a little longer.
40:19 --> 40:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Um, this player development staff is better, but even Cal Raleigh had to go back, right?
40:26 --> 40:27 [SPEAKER_02]: And figure some things out.
40:27 --> 40:37 [SPEAKER_02]: I just want to see Cold Emerson on the right timeline and not push to the big leagues because JP Crafters hurt, or because he's sitting 350 for six weeks in AAA.
40:37 --> 40:46 [SPEAKER_02]: I want the skillset to be ready and Cold Emerson upstairs ready to handle failure, and until he fails somewhere.
40:46 --> 40:51 [SPEAKER_02]: especially higher in the miners to some extent where he has to change some things.
40:51 --> 40:55 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm not going to be confident in that and while you can do some of that, the Big League's Cole Young's going to have to do that.
40:56 --> 41:02 [SPEAKER_02]: The mayor's had the opportunity to let Cole Emerson do that in April, May, maybe even part of June before that happened.
41:02 --> 41:06 [SPEAKER_02]: So I don't think Emerson's as ready for the Big League as some people think he is.
41:06 --> 41:12 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he's more on the, you know, you look to Cole Young last year about when he came up that makes a lot of sense.
41:12 --> 41:14 [SPEAKER_00]: That's exactly the time I'd have you as the call.
41:14 --> 41:15 [SPEAKER_00]: Young timeline.
41:15 --> 41:18 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, didn't Colt experience failure last year.
41:18 --> 41:24 [SPEAKER_01]: It was the middle of the season and he had an OPS sitting in the 700s and then he introduced the totap and then he exploded.
41:25 --> 41:27 [SPEAKER_01]: I feel like that is an example of him.
41:27 --> 41:30 [SPEAKER_02]: Did he struggle or did he just hit the ball on the ground too much?
41:30 --> 41:38 [SPEAKER_02]: Do you see no I'm saying like there wasn't like tons of swing and miss it was like wow I'm struggling with the left hand at breaking ball there was really none of that It was I'm making contact.
41:39 --> 41:50 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm just not hit line drives Right, so then he changed things up he tightened things up You talked about the toe tap he changed the thing or two with his hands and where he starts and it took off Did he actually struggle though?
41:50 --> 41:54 [SPEAKER_02]: What did he have a difficult time mentally figuring out what was going on?
41:54 --> 41:56 [SPEAKER_02]: That's going to happen at the Big League level.
41:56 --> 42:02 [SPEAKER_02]: You don't think Cole Young was rethinking just about everything last year at some point and then frustrated that he couldn't get in the line up because of that?
42:02 --> 42:03 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that happened.
42:03 --> 42:06 [SPEAKER_02]: So he went through that and it didn't hurt the Mariners last year.
42:06 --> 42:11 [SPEAKER_02]: And I just think if you're doing that with Cole Demoson, you have an opportunity for him to get most of that out of the way.
42:11 --> 42:14 [SPEAKER_02]: And so Cole Demoson is further along at this point.
42:14 --> 42:21 [SPEAKER_02]: right now than Cole Young was a year ago, but not by enough to where he should be in the conversation before June.
42:22 --> 42:32 [SPEAKER_01]: So if I'm going to throw the question out here, what I wrote down is an expectation for Colt Emerson going to be closer to 225 Cole Young or 222 Julio, it's Cole Young by Lancelind.
42:34 --> 42:34 [SPEAKER_02]: man.
42:35 --> 42:36 [SPEAKER_02]: Julio is awfully good.
42:36 --> 42:43 [SPEAKER_01]: Um, I would say about this question is that Colt ranks way closer to Julio as a prospect.
42:43 --> 42:45 [SPEAKER_01]: Then he does, then he does the Coli on.
42:46 --> 42:47 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's true.
42:47 --> 42:48 [SPEAKER_02]: That's absolutely true.
42:48 --> 42:50 [SPEAKER_02]: The upside is significantly higher.
42:50 --> 42:55 [SPEAKER_02]: We're talking about a guy who could be a 60 player for 10 years because, and here's what's great.
42:55 --> 42:57 [SPEAKER_02]: And here's where I'm going to tune my own little bit.
42:58 --> 43:05 [SPEAKER_02]: Colt D'Amerson comes in a league and people are like, yeah, this is a guy who has a chance to get 280 with 12 to 14 home runs and I'm like, you're absolutely out of your mind.
43:05 --> 43:06 [SPEAKER_02]: You're absolutely out of your mind.
43:06 --> 43:09 [SPEAKER_02]: You watch one round of batting practice with this kid right before the drafts.
43:10 --> 43:14 [SPEAKER_02]: And you're like, if they do this right, this is a 20 home run short stop.
43:14 --> 43:16 [SPEAKER_02]: And that is an absolute game changer, right?
43:17 --> 43:20 [SPEAKER_02]: Then he got big and I was like, maybe short stop, not the thing.
43:20 --> 43:23 [SPEAKER_02]: And then he answered that question last year, but that's the big difference, right?
43:25 --> 43:29 [SPEAKER_02]: That first part of that, 280, 12 to 14 numbers, that's cool young now, right?
43:30 --> 43:33 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's 15, 17 in his prime, but that's pretty much cool young now.
43:33 --> 43:36 [SPEAKER_02]: That was the thought process around Col. Emerson.
43:36 --> 43:39 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, after they were drafted, and I was like, all you guys are absolutely nuts.
43:39 --> 43:42 [SPEAKER_02]: And I didn't hear anybody else talking about that until last year.
43:43 --> 43:49 [SPEAKER_02]: You see those hands, you see the bats beat, you say how quickly you get some in on a fast balls in, he can get to that pitch.
43:49 --> 43:50 [SPEAKER_02]: He's just going to need time to grow.
43:51 --> 44:00 [SPEAKER_02]: Years ago, had a scout tell me about Felix Hernandez, you know, it was in AA, I think about to start the year in AAA at 19, 20 years old or whatever.
44:00 --> 44:03 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, I asked, you know, what do you think of Felix this year?
44:03 --> 44:04 [SPEAKER_02]: And he's like, there's nothing to see.
44:04 --> 44:05 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm not going to go, not going to go watch.
44:05 --> 44:06 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm like, what do you mean?
44:06 --> 44:07 [SPEAKER_02]: He's in AAA.
44:08 --> 44:10 [SPEAKER_02]: He's like, I need to do his make sure that guy gets enough water.
44:10 --> 44:13 [SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, he's going to be what he is.
44:13 --> 44:17 [SPEAKER_02]: We're not there with Cold Emerson quite yet, but it is a matter of time.
44:18 --> 44:24 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, we're, we're going to have enough confidence because he's facing up or level, minor league pitching where you're like, all right, like, let's see it.
44:25 --> 44:27 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Cold Emerson's going to make some all star teams.
44:27 --> 44:27 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think Cold Young is.
44:28 --> 44:30 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Cold Emerson's going to make some all star teams.
44:30 --> 44:34 [SPEAKER_00]: All right, we're going to transition to pitchers a little bit.
44:35 --> 44:43 [SPEAKER_00]: I got a couple of questions on these guys, and then we can finish with a couple of questions that are a little more generic, but how can Brian Wu take another step forward in 26?
44:43 --> 44:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Because each of the first couple of years in the big leagues, he's done it.
44:46 --> 44:52 [SPEAKER_00]: It went from Kenny get left east out, answered it, Kenny be an innings eater and Kenny worked deep into games, answered it.
44:54 --> 44:55 [SPEAKER_00]: What's still left for him to do this here?
44:56 --> 45:02 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the quality of the breaking balls he's throwing can get better.
45:03 --> 45:08 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the consistency of the off-speed stuff in terms of the change up can get better.
45:08 --> 45:12 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think the pitch usage can get better.
45:12 --> 45:14 [SPEAKER_02]: I think sometimes there are too many fastballs.
45:15 --> 45:22 [SPEAKER_02]: I think sometimes he overthrows the slider because the last time he faced this hit or I remember last year they were facing Oakland.
45:22 --> 45:31 [SPEAKER_02]: And the Wilson, the shortstop, you know, first time up threw him a lot of fastballs and he's like singled up the middle or something like that.
45:31 --> 45:32 [SPEAKER_02]: Nothing hit hard, but he's singled up the middle.
45:33 --> 45:36 [SPEAKER_02]: Next time up it was slider, slider, slider, and he walked him.
45:37 --> 45:40 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think to just little things, there are little things that he can get better at.
45:40 --> 45:44 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the limit with who is you're always going to think about.
45:44 --> 45:59 [SPEAKER_02]: the workload within because he's had multiple injuries, including last year that, you know, like how different would the Mariners postseason have been with Brian Wu, who was their best pitcher last year, ready to roll in some form of fashion and he wasn't.
45:59 --> 46:08 [SPEAKER_02]: But I also think I'm glad you went to pitchers here because you asked about how do they make up for the offense, the regression mostly from Calarali.
46:09 --> 46:11 [SPEAKER_02]: I think having better pitching is going to help doing that.
46:11 --> 46:12 [SPEAKER_02]: It is going to help do that.
46:13 --> 46:15 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that starting rotation wasn't great last year, right?
46:16 --> 46:27 [SPEAKER_02]: Certainly compared to 2024, and it's not looking great with with Bryce Miller not ready to start the season, but Kirby can be better, Gilbert can be better, because steel can be a little better.
46:27 --> 46:50 [SPEAKER_02]: So we'll see what happens with the the Brice Miller spot in that rotation and how much they have to get from members in Hancock and or Cooper Chriswell, and how soon they maybe get to Kate Anderson later in the year, but I think there's a good chance that starting rotation is noticeably better than they were a year ago, and that's going to make up for some of the offense, they may not get this year that they did a year ago.
46:51 --> 46:53 [SPEAKER_01]: Does Brian will have a 30% strikeout rate in them?
46:53 --> 46:54 [SPEAKER_01]: Is he that kind of picture?
46:56 --> 46:56 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe.
46:56 --> 46:58 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's the thing.
46:58 --> 47:02 [SPEAKER_02]: If you're telling me, he bumps his slider up a half a grade, right?
47:02 --> 47:03 [SPEAKER_02]: And he bumps this change up a half a grade.
47:04 --> 47:05 [SPEAKER_02]: And nothing else goes backward.
47:05 --> 47:06 [SPEAKER_02]: Command doesn't go backward.
47:08 --> 47:10 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, two seamer, four seamer doesn't go backward.
47:10 --> 47:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
47:11 --> 47:12 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, what was he at last year?
47:12 --> 47:12 [SPEAKER_02]: 26?
47:12 --> 47:14 [SPEAKER_01]: 27%.
47:14 --> 47:14 [SPEAKER_02]: 27.
47:14 --> 47:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
47:15 --> 47:15 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think so.
47:16 --> 47:18 [SPEAKER_02]: And whether that happens this year or next, I think that could happen.
47:19 --> 47:20 [SPEAKER_02]: That absolutely could happen.
47:20 --> 47:25 [SPEAKER_02]: He was pretty dialed in against the white socks, but you saw the location on a lot of those pitches.
47:26 --> 47:32 [SPEAKER_02]: And that was a pretty good performance by Brian, with regardless of the actual results in a game.
47:32 --> 47:36 [SPEAKER_02]: throw the pitch where you want and he has good control, command can always get better.
47:36 --> 47:48 [SPEAKER_02]: I always think like Gilbert's command can get better, Kirby's command can get better, because that's one thing that a pitcher can always add to the arsenal and it's just where do you throw the pitch, do you hate your spots, do you throw it where you're supposed to?
47:48 --> 47:58 [SPEAKER_02]: One of the things with Wu and Miller both is the location of their breaking walls that I always
47:58 --> 48:04 [SPEAKER_02]: They kind of rely on the hit or not being able to say when he throws his breaking ball, it's going to be down in a way from a righty and down into a lefty.
48:05 --> 48:08 [SPEAKER_02]: They throw that back up one, sometimes up in the zone, betting on purpose most of the time.
48:09 --> 48:14 [SPEAKER_02]: And while it's valuable to do that on occasion, that's very dangerous as well.
48:14 --> 48:14 [SPEAKER_02]: You can hang that pit.
48:14 --> 48:16 [SPEAKER_02]: So just little things with Wu.
48:16 --> 48:22 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's got all that fastball value who has a better fastball in terms of the results.
48:22 --> 48:28 [SPEAKER_02]: That actually throws both fastball types in all the baseball right now.
48:28 --> 48:48 [SPEAKER_02]: Joe Ryan maybe does he throw both to that to that level like maybe maybe Ryan just throws the force hammer yeah but either way we don't know for sure we're not throwing out like five guys right and that's how good Brian we has it from a fastball standpoint if you outlawed all non-fastballs Brian would be about the best picture in the game
48:49 --> 48:57 [SPEAKER_00]: How high on your list of priorities, personal, Jason Churchill priorities of extensions would Brian would be on that list.
48:57 --> 49:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Because Jared Apoto just a couple days ago was on MLB network and said he feels like there's some confidence in getting some more internal extensions done.
49:04 --> 49:10 [SPEAKER_00]: He obviously didn't say who, but of the guys that remain on extended, how high would we be on that list?
49:10 --> 49:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Yes, so what's his worst third season?
49:12 --> 49:18 [SPEAKER_02]: So he's got four years left, including this year of control.
49:19 --> 49:32 [SPEAKER_02]: the the Logan Gilbert conversation is different but I think with with woo at this point you're just like how do we account for the free agent years and how do we account for the next couple of years based on the injury we saw last year.
49:33 --> 49:42 [SPEAKER_02]: How much are we worried about that right is this a guy is going to turn into a 32 start to underneath I consistently how worried about that actually are we
49:42 --> 49:51 [SPEAKER_02]: because he would be the ideal candidate to do because you're not talking about seven years and $160 million because he's got four years left, right?
49:52 --> 49:58 [SPEAKER_02]: If it's still early enough in the year where you could get an agent and majorly based on the okay with it, including 26 in an extension.
49:59 --> 50:03 [SPEAKER_02]: So if you're doing a six year deal, for example, you're buying out two for eight in the years.
50:03 --> 50:07 [SPEAKER_02]: And if you value that at around $25 million give or take, that's $50 million dollars.
50:07 --> 50:10 [SPEAKER_02]: Now it's just how do you value the rest of the way?
50:10 --> 50:10 [SPEAKER_02]: Right?
50:10 --> 50:11 [SPEAKER_02]: How do you value the next several years?
50:12 --> 50:13 [SPEAKER_02]: And the advantage to Brian, who there is?
50:14 --> 50:21 [SPEAKER_02]: The risk, there's a lot of risk in it for the player to not take $80 million or $100 million right now.
50:21 --> 50:26 [SPEAKER_02]: So I think if you went to some of these guys with that, Wu included, he'd have to take it.
50:27 --> 50:34 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he would be the one that I'd be prioritizing even over Logan Gilbert right now because I want to make sure Logan Gilbert is fine.
50:35 --> 50:43 [SPEAKER_02]: I think there are ways you can protect yourselves in that contract, but I still want to see what version of Logan Gilbert we're going to get was not efficient last year.
50:44 --> 50:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, what should Logan take from his 20, 25 season or what should he leave?
50:49 --> 50:50 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's a good one.
50:50 --> 50:57 [SPEAKER_02]: If I'm Logan Gilbert, I'm thinking, you know, almost the bolder I'm taking.
50:57 --> 51:01 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, every once in a while, I just have to think strikeouts are fascists.
51:01 --> 51:05 [SPEAKER_02]: Like, let's get some ground balls, right?
51:05 --> 51:07 [SPEAKER_02]: That strikeout rate spike last year, but I don't think it helped them.
51:08 --> 51:09 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, there were a lot of games.
51:10 --> 51:17 [SPEAKER_02]: I can't remember the numbers exactly now, but he had two or three times as many games last year where he failed to get to the sixth inning than the year before.
51:17 --> 51:19 [SPEAKER_02]: It was like astronomical difference.
51:20 --> 51:22 [SPEAKER_02]: I think you in 2024 at the Gali at eight.
51:23 --> 51:24 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think you only have to be starts.
51:24 --> 51:26 [SPEAKER_02]: Right, and that's not Logan Gilbert.
51:26 --> 51:28 [SPEAKER_02]: That's not the Logan Gilbert we've gotten used to here.
51:29 --> 51:35 [SPEAKER_02]: So I think being more efficient getting through the fifth and into the sixth and even through the sixth more often should be his goal.
51:35 --> 51:36 [SPEAKER_02]: He's going to have to be more efficient.
51:36 --> 51:38 [SPEAKER_02]: They're not going to let them throw 125 pitches a night.
51:39 --> 51:39 [SPEAKER_02]: You don't want to do that.
51:39 --> 51:40 [SPEAKER_02]: It's not going to happen.
51:40 --> 51:41 [SPEAKER_02]: He knows that's not part of the plan.
51:42 --> 51:43 [SPEAKER_02]: So he has to be more efficient.
51:43 --> 51:46 [SPEAKER_02]: So how can he use the arsenal he has?
51:46 --> 51:48 [SPEAKER_02]: He almost pitches like a reliever.
51:48 --> 51:51 [SPEAKER_02]: from from the first batter all the way through.
51:51 --> 51:57 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think they're just adding, you know, pitches to his total, and he's only allowed, you know, only allowing himself, you know, so many batters.
51:57 --> 52:06 [SPEAKER_02]: So, and then I think sometimes when he's trying to be more efficient, throw more strikes, like he doesn't necessarily have the arsenal that fits that perfectly, so I think he's still trying to figure that out.
52:07 --> 52:08 [SPEAKER_02]: You throw four seamers.
52:08 --> 52:12 [SPEAKER_02]: I know he's got the extension, but that fastball doesn't move a lot.
52:12 --> 52:19 [SPEAKER_02]: and you throw four seamers, first-pitch, second-pitch, trying to get ahead, and guys are going to hit that in a gap, and I think we've seen that.
52:19 --> 52:23 [SPEAKER_02]: We saw that plenty last year, and that just adds even more pitches to your total.
52:23 --> 52:24 [SPEAKER_02]: So just efficiency.
52:24 --> 52:30 [SPEAKER_02]: How can he be more efficient and be that six-seminating guy this year that he was a couple of years ago?
52:30 --> 52:41 [SPEAKER_02]: Um, without completely giving away and getting away from the ability to punch out hitters in key situations, and oddly enough, it actually reminds me of Jose Ferrer.
52:41 --> 52:48 [SPEAKER_02]: Everybody's like, oh, he only struck out 22% of the batters, yeah, but when runners were on base and they were in high-leveled spots, that's spike to 25% to 28%.
52:48 --> 52:53 [SPEAKER_02]: I think if Logan Gilbert can figure out a way to do that a little bit more, he'll be fine.
52:53 --> 52:55 [SPEAKER_02]: And I absolutely agree with him being the opening day starter.
52:55 --> 52:56 [SPEAKER_02]: That's what I would have done too.
52:58 --> 53:02 [SPEAKER_00]: for George Kirby, and this is the last picture question at least I have, but
53:03 --> 53:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Is this who he is at this point?
53:04 --> 53:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Or is there more left in the tank?
53:06 --> 53:07 [SPEAKER_00]: Somebody gave us a comp the other day.
53:07 --> 53:09 [SPEAKER_00]: It was himbo from ESPN.
53:09 --> 53:10 [SPEAKER_00]: I actually thought it was a pretty interesting comp.
53:10 --> 53:24 [SPEAKER_00]: And he's given it to us, too, in the past, where he said he reminds him a lot of Aranola, where Aranola in 2018 had the one huge year, every year, all the stuff under the hood always seems to favor him, things like FIP.
53:24 --> 53:30 [SPEAKER_00]: He obviously doesn't walk a ton of guys, but he's more of a strike, the rower than a strike creator.
53:30 --> 53:41 [SPEAKER_00]: So are we at the point where Kirby's essentially thrown five big league seasons, and we know who he's going to be at this point, or is there still room left in the tank to hit what people once thought he could had of being a sion container?
53:42 --> 53:45 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think the difference is.
53:46 --> 53:48 [SPEAKER_02]: First of all, Noah got to that good.
53:48 --> 53:51 [SPEAKER_02]: What would he say was like 2018 where, you know, he kind of went nuts or what?
53:51 --> 53:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, he had like eight or nine wins season.
53:53 --> 53:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
53:53 --> 53:53 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.
53:54 --> 53:59 [SPEAKER_02]: But he even had some really good years after that, where he was significantly better.
53:59 --> 54:11 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, it's, Noah was more of an up and down instead of on the three win guy, four win guy, four win guy than eight win and then back to three four, like he had some, I think he had a six win season two years ago or three years ago.
54:11 --> 54:14 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, maybe right before the contract or maybe two years before the contract.
54:15 --> 54:17 [SPEAKER_02]: So he's bounced around a little bit and hasn't quite been a lead.
54:18 --> 54:19 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that could be it for Kirby.
54:19 --> 54:24 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he's struggling with how do I, because there's not a lot of deception in that delivery, right?
54:24 --> 54:27 [SPEAKER_02]: So he has to be, again, here's that word again, really efficient.
54:27 --> 54:30 [SPEAKER_02]: He has to command his pitches, and it's mostly with the breaking stuff.
54:30 --> 54:39 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the best way George Kirby could move forward is stop tinkering with
54:38 --> 55:00 [SPEAKER_02]: And perfect the change up splitter, whichever one of those two things you want to run with and do it Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have done and I think he has an opportunity to do that and he can throw us from that kind of a slot where he can hide that pitch where it'll, you know, it's a fastball slot, it's a fastball, you know, releasing a lot of ways and, you know, take eight to ten miles an hour off the 90s of a mile an hour heater and that might be a strike out pitch.
55:00 --> 55:03 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he's tinkered so much with the breaking ball.
55:03 --> 55:07 [SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, last year we saw him trying not to be in the zone so much.
55:07 --> 55:12 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, I think the whole don't be in the zone so much should be about the fastball, not the breaking stuff.
55:12 --> 55:14 [SPEAKER_02]: Like the breaking stuff was already, you already don't want to do that.
55:14 --> 55:16 [SPEAKER_02]: You don't want to throw a ton of sliders in the strike zone, right?
55:17 --> 55:20 [SPEAKER_02]: You want them to tease the zone, break out of the zone, get the hitter to swing.
55:20 --> 55:22 [SPEAKER_02]: And he just isn't able to do that as much.
55:22 --> 55:28 [SPEAKER_02]: So we're still seeing, though, what did we see from Kirby last year from a strikeout, right?
55:29 --> 55:30 [SPEAKER_02]: It's still good.
55:30 --> 55:37 [SPEAKER_02]: He's certainly not Logan Gilbert, but he was at, I'm looking at 26% a career high, right?
55:38 --> 55:40 [SPEAKER_02]: So we know he can do that.
55:40 --> 56:04 [SPEAKER_02]: But did he do that at the expense of some other things that caused some of those underlying, you know, numbers not to look as great, but when you look a little deeper, I'm big on I kind of grouped together like ERA with FIP and XBIP and XRA and all that stuff that the runs allowed metrics the ERA didn't look great right for 21 for Kirby, but that's a 337 fit but 325 XFIP.
56:04 --> 56:06 [SPEAKER_02]: That 325X fit best of his career.
56:07 --> 56:09 [SPEAKER_02]: So we did a lot of things last year that were actually really good.
56:09 --> 56:18 [SPEAKER_02]: I think maybe we're staring a little too much at the ERA, maybe we're staring a little too much at things that were dictated by him being out of the lineup.
56:18 --> 56:20 [SPEAKER_02]: He didn't miss six weeks, he only made 2223 starts.
56:21 --> 56:22 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm really interested though.
56:22 --> 56:23 [SPEAKER_02]: I curb he wants to...
56:23 --> 56:26 [SPEAKER_02]: to do things a little bit differently this year.
56:26 --> 56:29 [SPEAKER_02]: I just think the tinkering with the breaking balls has gone far enough.
56:30 --> 56:39 [SPEAKER_02]: I just think, be calm a two-seem, four-seem, splitter guy, and mix in the breaking balls instead of the breaking ball being the second thing you go to.
56:39 --> 56:41 [SPEAKER_02]: I just, they're not going to fool anybody at this point.
56:41 --> 56:42 [SPEAKER_02]: And it can keep working on them.
56:42 --> 56:44 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, that happens, you know.
56:44 --> 56:46 [SPEAKER_02]: And we're talking about guys what, 27, 28 years old.
56:47 --> 56:48 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, barely 28.
56:48 --> 56:50 [SPEAKER_02]: He's still got time.
56:50 --> 56:52 [SPEAKER_02]: And a guy that throws strikes,
56:52 --> 57:05 [SPEAKER_02]: at 95 plus that easily, you're kind of never done getting better, you always have that extra opportunity to do some things, different from Regalic Robby Ray who had to come from struggling throwing strikes to throwing more strikes.
57:06 --> 57:08 [SPEAKER_02]: That's probably the scene, we've seen the best from Robby Ray.
57:09 --> 57:10 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't necessarily think that's too much towards Gary.
57:11 --> 57:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Can you give us a breakout prospect in this system for 2026?
57:16 --> 57:16 [SPEAKER_02]: break out.
57:17 --> 57:28 [SPEAKER_02]: So, you mean somebody who doesn't rank very high right now, who other than the guys that are the first time in the organization, that's a good, how about Corbin Dickerson?
57:28 --> 57:29 [SPEAKER_02]: I haven't been my top 15.
57:30 --> 57:34 [SPEAKER_02]: Some other places have them about the same spot, but nobody really talks about them because he hasn't.
57:34 --> 57:46 [SPEAKER_02]: I think this is a guy who couldn't have been, you know, I've thrown some, some cops out there that people have asked about with Dickerson and the first one that I thought it was Austin Hayes.
57:46 --> 57:51 [SPEAKER_02]: with Dickerson, can play a little center field early in this career at least, you know, has some pop.
57:52 --> 57:59 [SPEAKER_02]: If you can avoid the 30% strikeout rates, he's going to have some seasons where maybe he's worth two, three wins in the big leagues.
57:59 --> 58:03 [SPEAKER_02]: So I think maybe Corbin Dickerson, Griffin Hugus, though, would probably be my first choice.
58:03 --> 58:08 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that development model is very price-miller to me.
58:08 --> 58:12 [SPEAKER_02]: I really like that pick, and I like what the Mariners have planned for him.
58:12 --> 58:17 [SPEAKER_02]: So as long as he stays healthy, I think that's a guy who can move from the top 15 into the top 10.
58:18 --> 58:23 [SPEAKER_02]: There's still some reliever risk there, but there was with price-miller too.
58:23 --> 58:27 [SPEAKER_02]: And we had no idea Brian who had much of a chance to get to the big leagues when they took him.
58:27 --> 58:29 [SPEAKER_02]: a couple of years back and look where he is now.
58:29 --> 58:32 [SPEAKER_02]: This club still knows what they're doing with pictures.
58:32 --> 58:34 [SPEAKER_02]: So I'd say Griffin Hugo's first and maybe Corbin Dickerson's second.
58:34 --> 58:45 [SPEAKER_02]: And all those young guys, those international guys, they all Landra Romero's probably the one that made the biggest leap last year, but we're going to see Batista, take a big leap this year.
58:44 --> 58:50 [SPEAKER_02]: I think, you know, if you, if you watch the spring breakout game, you saw a boutique to do.
58:50 --> 58:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Every single abaddy look good, you know, and I think we're going to see more of that this show.
58:54 --> 59:02 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a bunch of strikeouts last year in low batting hours that were at some people, but he's so tooled up and he just needs to get his feet underneath them and he'll be good.
59:02 --> 59:04 [SPEAKER_02]: But those guys are always candidates for that.
59:04 --> 59:06 [SPEAKER_02]: So I'll go with Huggies and Dickerson, couple of college picks from last year.
59:07 --> 59:11 [SPEAKER_00]: In the AL West, can anybody hang with the Mariners?
59:11 --> 59:13 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'm just looking up and down this division.
59:13 --> 59:14 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, you're not in, yes.
59:14 --> 59:15 [SPEAKER_00]: See, I'm looking at the division.
59:16 --> 59:17 [SPEAKER_00]: You can give your intake here in a second.
59:17 --> 59:26 [SPEAKER_00]: But I see Houston and I see a roster that's aging with their stars and a rotation pass, hunter-brown, that has a lot of question marks.
59:26 --> 59:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I look at a Texas team that kind of looks like a jumbled roster in a lot of different ways, offensively, with a couple of good arms and adding Mackenzie Gore, who's obviously very good.
59:34 --> 59:39 [SPEAKER_00]: A is a pretty one dimensional with their offense and not a lot of pitching and then the angels are the angels.
59:39 --> 59:40 [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm just looking up and down the west.
59:40 --> 59:43 [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm like, can anybody hang with the Mariners?
59:44 --> 59:44 [SPEAKER_02]: If we
59:46 --> 59:48 [SPEAKER_02]: injuries can be the equalizer.
59:48 --> 59:49 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that's the problem.
59:49 --> 59:51 [SPEAKER_02]: Seattle's dealing with some guys coming off injuries.
59:51 --> 59:52 [SPEAKER_02]: What is Logan Gilbert going to be?
59:53 --> 59:55 [SPEAKER_02]: What is Bryce Miller going to be?
59:57 --> 01:00:00 [SPEAKER_02]: Not really worried too much there, you know, with Brian Wu.
01:00:00 --> 01:00:05 [SPEAKER_02]: And if the Rangers getting in luck with injuries, what a Corey Seger plays 140 games.
01:00:05 --> 01:00:07 [SPEAKER_02]: What if Jacob DeGrom gives them another full season?
01:00:07 --> 01:00:12 [SPEAKER_02]: What if you've all
01:00:12 --> 01:00:16 [SPEAKER_02]: I do think the Rangers are going to need the injury luck on their side to stay in the game there.
01:00:17 --> 01:00:23 [SPEAKER_02]: But when I look at the, when I look at the Astros, I think I'm a little higher on the Astros than most.
01:00:24 --> 01:00:26 [SPEAKER_02]: Hunter Brown is obviously really good.
01:00:26 --> 01:00:27 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Burrows is going to help them.
01:00:28 --> 01:00:31 [SPEAKER_02]: In my, I think is going to help them quite a bit.
01:00:31 --> 01:00:33 [SPEAKER_02]: hobby areas, you know, starting the season healthy.
01:00:34 --> 01:00:41 [SPEAKER_02]: We'll see what happens at the back of their their rotation, but eventually spent to air a getty who's flash pretty good trending up.
01:00:42 --> 01:00:45 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't count Lance McCulloch for anything that guy always gets hurt.
01:00:45 --> 01:00:50 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that bullpen still has a chance to be really really good, maybe the best in the division, maybe the best in the division by far.
01:00:50 --> 01:00:54 [SPEAKER_02]: And I still see a lineup that is going to be paying in the ass to be honest with you.
01:00:55 --> 01:00:58 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't expect Christian Walker to struggle like he did last year.
01:00:58 --> 01:01:03 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't expect him to have an MVP season or anything, but you're talking about hitters in that lineup, Walker Parades.
01:01:04 --> 01:01:08 [SPEAKER_02]: I'll too be still good, even though he's not as good as he used to be.
01:01:09 --> 01:01:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's see what Carlos Correa can give the astros, right?
01:01:11 --> 01:01:11 [SPEAKER_02]: We'll see.
01:01:12 --> 01:01:15 [SPEAKER_02]: Jeremy Payne yet, pretty good player, had a good year last year.
01:01:15 --> 01:01:17 [SPEAKER_02]: He might be a regression candidate, but he might not be, too.
01:01:17 --> 01:01:18 [SPEAKER_02]: He might still be heading north.
01:01:18 --> 01:01:23 [SPEAKER_02]: You're done Alvarez being back as huge, and obviously an injury risk that gets hurt a lot.
01:01:23 --> 01:01:30 [SPEAKER_02]: So if you're telling me Cory Seeger gets 140 games, maybe Alvarez gives them 140 games, those two teams are completely different ball clubs, right?
01:01:31 --> 01:01:36 [SPEAKER_02]: And if those two teams, and I know the Astros tried, they didn't do much at the deadline last year.
01:01:36 --> 01:01:41 [SPEAKER_02]: But if the Rangers stay in it, and they add aggressively at the deadline, they're going to be able to stay with the Maristate to some extent.
01:01:41 --> 01:01:48 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm not saying they're 95 when team, but that's a team with a lot of talent,
01:01:48 --> 01:01:54 [SPEAKER_02]: As long as they can find a way to keep that rotation pretty healthy, they're going to be a pain in the ass.
01:01:55 --> 01:01:59 [SPEAKER_02]: I would not be surprised if we looked up in May and the Astros lead the division by four games.
01:01:59 --> 01:02:04 [SPEAKER_02]: I think they're good enough for those kinds of ups and downs during the season to have enough ups to stay with Seattle.
01:02:04 --> 01:02:06 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think the Mariners are a juggernaut.
01:02:07 --> 01:02:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Here's where the problem comes.
01:02:09 --> 01:02:11 [SPEAKER_02]: While the Mariners have some injury stuff, right?
01:02:12 --> 01:02:21 [SPEAKER_02]: The Astros have more, and the Rangers have even more, and we know the athletics, well, they're probably going to be a pain, particularly offensively, the angels aren't very good again.
01:02:21 --> 01:02:25 [SPEAKER_02]: I do think at the end of the day, the Americans have a significant advantage.
01:02:25 --> 01:02:29 [SPEAKER_02]: They have more avenues to winning 90 plus games than those other clubs.
01:02:29 --> 01:02:40 [SPEAKER_02]: They need less luck, they need less health luck, they need less randomness, they need less acquisitions during the season to get to 90 plus and win the division.
01:02:40 --> 01:02:45 [SPEAKER_02]: those three teams are kind of neck and neck, you know, at least the first half of the season.
01:02:45 --> 01:02:48 [SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, if you're a management, you probably don't want to hear that.
01:02:49 --> 01:02:59 [SPEAKER_02]: But there's also this, if you're rolling the dice 100 times, there's a pretty good chance that 60 plus, you know, rolls of that dice, Seattle wins that division by five plus games too.
01:03:00 --> 01:03:03 [SPEAKER_02]: And if they have bad luck with injuries,
01:03:03 --> 01:03:04 [SPEAKER_02]: they're going to get buried.
01:03:04 --> 01:03:06 [SPEAKER_02]: Like Seeger can't miss 90 games.
01:03:07 --> 01:03:09 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, Alvarez can't miss half the season.
01:03:10 --> 01:03:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Hunter Brown can't miss Jack, right?
01:03:13 --> 01:03:17 [SPEAKER_02]: Like everything they do is kind of magnified.
01:03:17 --> 01:03:20 [SPEAKER_02]: Every injury they have is magnified even more than Seattle.
01:03:20 --> 01:03:23 [SPEAKER_02]: So Seattle is the best team.
01:03:23 --> 01:03:26 [SPEAKER_02]: I think they're pretty clearly the best roster in the division.
01:03:26 --> 01:03:30 [SPEAKER_02]: But there are a lot of paths that, you know, long season, injuries are big, acquisitions are big.
01:03:31 --> 01:03:45 [SPEAKER_02]: And when there are things that can happen, you know, if you're talking about Houston, don't you look at like what happens if, you know, someone jumps like as that coal or a decenzo or, you know, someone like that jumps and it is better this year.
01:03:45 --> 01:03:49 [SPEAKER_02]: because they have their own co-yungs and cold Emerson's to some extent, right?
01:03:49 --> 01:03:57 [SPEAKER_02]: Even if it's not a top prospect, they got a guy who can take a jump or two guys who can take a jump versus what they did a year ago that nobody's really including in their projections right now.
01:03:57 --> 01:04:00 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's very real, particularly for the Houston Astros.
01:04:02 --> 01:04:19 [SPEAKER_01]: Even with all of that, I think all the projections and a lot of people's opinions at the beginning of the season as this Mariners team has good of a chance as any Mariners team in history to make the world series so can you get me a reason why the Mariners will make the world series and a reason why the Mariners won't make the world series.
01:04:19 --> 01:04:22 [SPEAKER_02]: This is really easy for me on both ends.
01:04:22 --> 01:04:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Number one, if they're the healthiest team in the league.
01:04:26 --> 01:04:31 [SPEAKER_02]: If you tell me they're the healthiest team in the league, they have the best chance to go to the world series.
01:04:32 --> 01:04:38 [SPEAKER_02]: Having the players, they have available to them at a max rate is so huge.
01:04:38 --> 01:04:39 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's huge for every team.
01:04:40 --> 01:04:46 [SPEAKER_02]: But I don't know that you can say, hey, if the Minnesota twins are the healthiest team in the league, they're going to the world series.
01:04:46 --> 01:04:47 [SPEAKER_02]: That's not true, right?
01:04:47 --> 01:04:48 [SPEAKER_02]: We don't feel that about Cleveland.
01:04:49 --> 01:04:55 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't even really feel that about the Detroit Tigers, even though they've made some moves that make them very, very interesting in the favorite in that division.
01:04:56 --> 01:04:56 [SPEAKER_02]: So that would be it.
01:04:57 --> 01:05:05 [SPEAKER_02]: I think health, if you get 30 plus starts out of at least the four guys that are going to start the season healthy and maybe get 25 at a Miller.
01:05:07 --> 01:05:13 [SPEAKER_02]: I think you're going to get some semblance of a return to 2024 performance as a group from the rotation.
01:05:13 --> 01:05:18 [SPEAKER_02]: I like that, that's the key first Seattle getting to and maybe even winning the world series.
01:05:18 --> 01:05:24 [SPEAKER_02]: The thing that might keep them from it is how they run their team on the field during games, and that's Dan Wilson.
01:05:25 --> 01:05:26 [SPEAKER_02]: That's it.
01:05:26 --> 01:05:29 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think he lost the mate games last year.
01:05:29 --> 01:05:34 [SPEAKER_02]: That's a lot of games for a manager to lose a team and I'm not even including the postseason, the big one in the postseason.
01:05:35 --> 01:05:47 [SPEAKER_02]: One fun thing, I don't know how you guys feel about this, but you know, it's the whole sky is falling, the Dodgers buy all the players, you know, and they did it again with Tucker and you know, like whatever, but
01:05:47 --> 01:05:51 [SPEAKER_02]: I've been getting a lot of questions like, okay, let's say the matter to get to the world series.
01:05:51 --> 01:05:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Is it like the worst time to get to the world series?
01:05:54 --> 01:05:56 [SPEAKER_02]: Not they don't want to, but is it the worst time to get to the world series?
01:05:56 --> 01:05:59 [SPEAKER_02]: Because the daughters are so good, and they just won't beat them.
01:05:59 --> 01:06:01 [SPEAKER_02]: And I'm thinking, where did this line of thinking come from?
01:06:02 --> 01:06:06 [SPEAKER_02]: First of all, did the Blue Jays, who you took to seven, and should have been?
01:06:06 --> 01:06:07 [SPEAKER_02]: Did they not?
01:06:07 --> 01:06:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Have a three to lead in that series last year?
01:06:10 --> 01:06:12 [SPEAKER_02]: Did they not get the game seven against the Dodgers last year?
01:06:12 --> 01:06:15 [SPEAKER_02]: What in the world is this conversation, guys?
01:06:15 --> 01:06:16 [SPEAKER_00]: All right, here's my take on that.
01:06:17 --> 01:06:21 [SPEAKER_00]: The BlueJays infinitely matched up better with the Dodgers than the Mariners did.
01:06:21 --> 01:06:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, because the BlueJays don't strike out, they put the ball and play.
01:06:24 --> 01:06:26 [SPEAKER_00]: I think that Dodgers rotation would have carved the Mariners line about.
01:06:27 --> 01:06:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I don't.
01:06:28 --> 01:06:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Really?
01:06:28 --> 01:06:29 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I don't.
01:06:30 --> 01:06:30 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
01:06:30 --> 01:06:33 [SPEAKER_02]: Look where that Dodgers rotation, maybe Yamamoto.
01:06:33 --> 01:06:37 [SPEAKER_02]: But look where that Dodgers rotation struggle.
01:06:38 --> 01:06:38 [SPEAKER_02]: the long ball.
01:06:39 --> 01:06:40 [SPEAKER_02]: The long ball.
01:06:40 --> 01:06:41 [SPEAKER_02]: That's what keeps you in the games.
01:06:41 --> 01:06:48 [SPEAKER_02]: So I'm not saying the mirrors would have done it exactly like the blue jays or even beat the Dodgers, but you're not getting wiped in five games in that series.
01:06:48 --> 01:06:49 [SPEAKER_02]: That's not happening.
01:06:50 --> 01:06:53 [SPEAKER_02]: And you have a little bit better team this year, at least to start the season than you did to start last year.
01:06:53 --> 01:06:57 [SPEAKER_02]: And we'll see where they are after the deadline this year with some of their young guys coming up.
01:06:58 --> 01:07:00 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe Emerson will see the development of Cole Young.
01:07:00 --> 01:07:01 [SPEAKER_02]: We'll see if that ups.
01:07:01 --> 01:07:02 [SPEAKER_02]: We'll see what they do with the deadline.
01:07:02 --> 01:07:05 [SPEAKER_02]: But I just don't understand
01:07:05 --> 01:07:12 [SPEAKER_02]: that process that I got probably 10 questions that were kind of the same like isn't this just the worst time the daughter is so good we're just never going to beat them.
01:07:12 --> 01:07:16 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm like I think you play that series 10 times you beat them two or three times at least.
01:07:16 --> 01:07:18 [SPEAKER_02]: I just don't understand that line of thinking at all.
01:07:18 --> 01:07:21 [SPEAKER_02]: And obviously you want to get to the world series regardless.
01:07:21 --> 01:07:22 [SPEAKER_02]: and get that off your back.
01:07:22 --> 01:07:24 [SPEAKER_02]: But that's just a weird one to me.
01:07:24 --> 01:07:26 [SPEAKER_02]: And well, yeah, it's a good argument.
01:07:27 --> 01:07:36 [SPEAKER_02]: The BlueJays lineup matched up with the Dodgers pitching better than Seattle would have, because it just makes it much contact.
01:07:36 --> 01:07:41 [SPEAKER_02]: But you could say that about the Mariners rotation in the BlueJays lineup too, and if Dan Willson's not your manager here in the world series.
01:07:43 --> 01:07:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you have a, I mean, most people have it.
01:07:46 --> 01:07:49 [SPEAKER_00]: We have it, but you haven't let that game set and go, have you?
01:07:49 --> 01:07:52 [SPEAKER_02]: No, Dan Wilson should not be the manager of this young man's.
01:07:53 --> 01:08:06 [SPEAKER_02]: That is a fireable offense right there alone, but because we live in Seattle and because owners are about the happy totals and the bobble heads and the familiar faces, here we are.
01:08:07 --> 01:08:09 [SPEAKER_02]: And I'm not saying Dan Wilson is the worst manager in the game.
01:08:10 --> 01:08:13 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if that's true, but he's not one of the best.
01:08:13 --> 01:08:20 [SPEAKER_02]: And this club went as far as they did last year, even though Dan Wilson was a manager.
01:08:20 --> 01:08:23 [SPEAKER_02]: It was like in spite of him, not because of him.
01:08:24 --> 01:08:25 [SPEAKER_02]: And the whole league sees that.
01:08:26 --> 01:08:28 [SPEAKER_02]: Like I got, you know how many text I got?
01:08:28 --> 01:08:40 [SPEAKER_02]: One Bazarto came into the game and was warming up from people that are like special assistance, consultants, former GMs that are in media now going, what's your boy doing?
01:08:40 --> 01:08:41 [SPEAKER_02]: I got that from someone.
01:08:41 --> 01:08:42 [SPEAKER_02]: I was like, dude, stop.
01:08:42 --> 01:08:43 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know, man.
01:08:43 --> 01:08:43 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
01:08:44 --> 01:08:47 [SPEAKER_02]: And then 10 seconds later, boom, in the game has changed.
01:08:47 --> 01:08:49 [SPEAKER_02]: Um, there was a lot of that.
01:08:50 --> 01:08:51 [SPEAKER_02]: And it's like, I can't explain it, man.
01:08:51 --> 01:08:52 [SPEAKER_02]: I can't he's got free reign.
01:08:53 --> 01:08:54 [SPEAKER_02]: I can't explain it.
01:08:54 --> 01:08:56 [SPEAKER_02]: Scott serviced did not have free reign like that.
01:08:56 --> 01:08:59 [SPEAKER_02]: And even if he did, he would have trusted the numbers more than it's got.
01:08:59 --> 01:09:01 [SPEAKER_02]: That's just not the game has managed.
01:09:01 --> 01:09:05 [SPEAKER_02]: Even the worst managers in the league that I can think of still don't go to their gut like that.
01:09:05 --> 01:09:06 [SPEAKER_02]: I just, I don't know, explain it.
01:09:06 --> 01:09:10 [SPEAKER_00]: Listen, you would play your personnel, people in front of office, people texting you during that.
01:09:10 --> 01:09:13 [SPEAKER_00]: We had a bunch of our Arizona State friends and group chats texting us the same thing.
01:09:13 --> 01:09:16 [SPEAKER_00]: So who really has the more credible information on that?
01:09:16 --> 01:09:21 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think Arizona State University has the more credible information on that.
01:09:21 --> 01:09:27 [SPEAKER_02]: It's just, it's nuts that, to me, I know we got, I know we got roasted, I understand that.
01:09:27 --> 01:09:28 [SPEAKER_02]: It went away too fast.
01:09:29 --> 01:09:37 [SPEAKER_02]: And wait, to me, it's, it's, it's not exactly the same, but it's akin to throwing the ball and not handing it to Marshall.
01:09:40 --> 01:09:43 [SPEAKER_02]: and peak carol was shredded for that and still get shredded for that.
01:09:44 --> 01:09:52 [SPEAKER_02]: So I exactly the same, but it's close enough to that where every single time the mariners come up as long as Dan Wilson is the manager, that should come up.
01:09:53 --> 01:09:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, Dan Wilson is your manager.
01:09:54 --> 01:09:55 [SPEAKER_02]: Has he changed?
01:09:55 --> 01:09:58 [SPEAKER_02]: Is he gonna trust the matchups and get a trust the numbers?
01:09:58 --> 01:09:59 [SPEAKER_02]: Or is he gonna go with his gut feel?
01:09:59 --> 01:10:00 [SPEAKER_02]: Cause that was just a trotius.
01:10:01 --> 01:10:06 [SPEAKER_02]: That's just, I think it's, and by the way, I'm the guy who thinks you don't have to run the ball on that down.
01:10:06 --> 01:10:08 [SPEAKER_02]: You just don't throw a low percentage
01:10:08 --> 01:10:09 [SPEAKER_02]: pass like that.
01:10:09 --> 01:10:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Correct.
01:10:09 --> 01:10:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Your number four receiver.
01:10:11 --> 01:10:15 [SPEAKER_00]: You could have rolled out on play action and thrown it away, like out of it.
01:10:15 --> 01:10:15 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
01:10:15 --> 01:10:17 [SPEAKER_02]: A fade something, right?
01:10:17 --> 01:10:19 [SPEAKER_00]: You can only think of that.
01:10:19 --> 01:10:19 [SPEAKER_02]: Just so weird.
01:10:19 --> 01:10:25 [SPEAKER_02]: So it was the play called, but you could, there are multiple things you could have done in that, that's series against Toronto as well.
01:10:25 --> 01:10:26 [SPEAKER_02]: It didn't have to be moon yet.
01:10:26 --> 01:10:27 [SPEAKER_02]: So could have been brash.
01:10:28 --> 01:10:29 [SPEAKER_02]: It could have been something else.
01:10:29 --> 01:10:33 [SPEAKER_02]: You could have done a lot of things differently in that position, but each.
01:10:32 --> 01:10:41 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, yeah, that's it's a tough one for me to to get through, you know, and and to make sense of and I just don't think I think we're too nice.
01:10:42 --> 01:10:47 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the media is too nice about it because they've never made the world series still and they should have been in it.
01:10:47 --> 01:11:02 [SPEAKER_02]: They were in the driver seat and they had, you know, I can't remember exactly but guys were ready to, guys were available at least and ready to go and you guys were telling me earlier, moonios wasn't even in the plan right there
01:11:02 --> 01:11:04 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if you guys allow swearing on your show.
01:11:04 --> 01:11:05 [SPEAKER_00]: You can say whatever you want.
01:11:05 --> 01:11:08 [SPEAKER_02]: But that was such a dog shit thought process guys.
01:11:08 --> 01:11:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Like I just, I don't understand it.
01:11:10 --> 01:11:12 [SPEAKER_02]: And right now I don't have any confidence that's going to change.
01:11:13 --> 01:11:16 [SPEAKER_02]: But I will acknowledge it was this first full year managing.
01:11:16 --> 01:11:17 [SPEAKER_02]: Never done it before, right?
01:11:17 --> 01:11:19 [SPEAKER_02]: And maybe that can change.
01:11:19 --> 01:11:30 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe he got to know Maniakta and Woodworth Insightser and some of the other people that he talks to down there on the field and maybe his experience changes him.
01:11:30 --> 01:11:38 [SPEAKER_02]: I think if you're a mayor's fan, you have to hope to some extent that that's what happened because a manager is more likely to hurt you than he is to help you.
01:11:38 --> 01:11:40 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's what happened in 2025 for the Seattle mayor.
01:11:40 --> 01:11:44 [SPEAKER_01]: Last thing for me, church, what would the indicators be that he has changed?
01:11:44 --> 01:11:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Like what if a fan is watching a game, what is going to be the indicator of that?
01:11:49 --> 01:11:58 [SPEAKER_02]: Um, things like I don't automatically, um, pull Rob Reft Snyder, like in the sixth inning when a right hand a reliever comes in.
01:11:58 --> 01:12:04 [SPEAKER_02]: If the other team has one or two good lefties, that they're almost certain to go to in a close game.
01:12:05 --> 01:12:10 [SPEAKER_02]: If he leaves them in thinking, I'm okay to sacrifice this one because they have two lefties down there.
01:12:10 --> 01:12:11 [SPEAKER_02]: That they're going to go to.
01:12:11 --> 01:12:12 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's Josh Hader.
01:12:12 --> 01:12:13 [SPEAKER_02]: We know Josh Hader's down there.
01:12:14 --> 01:12:18 [SPEAKER_02]: Do I want Luke Rayleigh facing Josh Hader in the eighth or ninth inning?
01:12:18 --> 01:12:26 [SPEAKER_02]: or do I want Rob Ress Snyder doing that, you know, if we see some change in that, you don't automatically just write away and that's what happened in 2025.
01:12:27 --> 01:12:33 [SPEAKER_02]: Rob Ress Snyder would have been ripped out in the sixth inning, Rayleigh would have come in the game or cans only would have come in the game.
01:12:33 --> 01:12:38 [SPEAKER_02]: And then later Josh Hader comes in and can's on a really has to face Hader instead of Rob Refts Niner.
01:12:38 --> 01:12:45 [SPEAKER_02]: I think weighing those two situations has to change the way that gets weighted out.
01:12:45 --> 01:12:55 [SPEAKER_02]: If there's a guy on second and third with one out and they bring in a bra you, you're playing the answer, they bring in a bra you and it's the six or seven thinning and it's tied.
01:12:55 --> 01:13:04 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, I see the argument for not allowing refs 90 face a Brady right there, right, or some other tough righty and go into Rayleigh.
01:13:04 --> 01:13:06 [SPEAKER_02]: But if there's a runner on first,
01:13:07 --> 01:13:07 [SPEAKER_02]: Like what are we doing here?
01:13:08 --> 01:13:18 [SPEAKER_02]: We're prioritizing runner on first, down three, two, and the sixth inning, over a close game in any situation and having ref Snyder face Haydor versus Haydor facing Rayleigh or Orcanson.
01:13:18 --> 01:13:20 [SPEAKER_02]: We saw that a thousand times last year.
01:13:21 --> 01:13:21 [SPEAKER_02]: So that would be one.
01:13:22 --> 01:13:23 [SPEAKER_02]: We'll see how he handles Brendan Donovan.
01:13:23 --> 01:13:25 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that's gonna be somewhat telling as well.
01:13:25 --> 01:13:28 [SPEAKER_02]: Guy should not just be the lead off hit or period every game.
01:13:28 --> 01:13:31 [SPEAKER_02]: Even if you're gonna, if you're gonna start him, that's one thing, although I don't even love that.
01:13:32 --> 01:13:33 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know that you have another option.
01:13:34 --> 01:13:39 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think you go to reboss at third against a bunch of lefties.
01:13:39 --> 01:13:45 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know that that's necessarily better than just having Donovan in the lineup, but you can't be your lead off hitter against Garrett Crochet and three school.
01:13:45 --> 01:13:46 [SPEAKER_02]: You can't do that.
01:13:48 --> 01:13:49 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's what we're going to see.
01:13:49 --> 01:13:53 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's just a huge disadvantage, particularly over time.
01:13:53 --> 01:13:54 [SPEAKER_02]: And so we'll see.
01:13:54 --> 01:13:55 [SPEAKER_02]: We'll see how that develops.
01:13:55 --> 01:13:56 [SPEAKER_02]: Those would be a couple of things.
01:13:57 --> 01:13:59 [SPEAKER_02]: I think another one would be,
01:14:00 --> 01:14:05 [SPEAKER_02]: You guys mentioned in George Kirby thing, you know, earlier in the playoffs, leaving him into long.
01:14:05 --> 01:14:07 [SPEAKER_02]: There's really no argument for leaving him in the game, right?
01:14:08 --> 01:14:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Left hand hitters coming up.
01:14:10 --> 01:14:11 [SPEAKER_00]: You're talking about Kerry Carpenter, yeah.
01:14:11 --> 01:14:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes.
01:14:12 --> 01:14:16 [SPEAKER_02]: Kerry Carpenter coming up who absolutely torches right hand at pitching anyway.
01:14:17 --> 01:14:20 [SPEAKER_02]: How many times through the lineup are you going to let George Kirby go, right?
01:14:20 --> 01:14:21 [SPEAKER_02]: Doesn't have a great history of that.
01:14:21 --> 01:14:23 [SPEAKER_02]: Didn't have a good year with that last year.
01:14:23 --> 01:14:24 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a terrible match.
01:14:24 --> 01:14:27 [SPEAKER_02]: There's no argument for leaving him in and yet it happens.
01:14:27 --> 01:14:29 [SPEAKER_02]: there better be an explanation for that.
01:14:29 --> 01:14:32 [SPEAKER_02]: My bullpen was absolutely taxed, right?
01:14:33 --> 01:14:35 [SPEAKER_02]: And if he's not answering questions like that, nothing's changed.
01:14:36 --> 01:14:38 [SPEAKER_02]: Like he's got to have a reason he can't just talk around it.
01:14:38 --> 01:14:41 [SPEAKER_02]: And I just don't have a whole lot of confidence that's going to change to be honest with you.
01:14:42 --> 01:14:42 [SPEAKER_02]: We'll see though.
01:14:42 --> 01:14:46 [SPEAKER_02]: I have a little bit of hope just not a lot of confidence.
01:14:46 --> 01:14:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's try to end this on a slightly positive note.
01:14:48 --> 01:14:51 [SPEAKER_00]: So as we do last last question, do you have a win prediction?
01:14:53 --> 01:15:05 [SPEAKER_02]: I do am going to hold out maybe you're going to hold out because I'm doing a preview episode on Tuesday at baseball things, but I will tell you this, it's not real aggressive.
01:15:05 --> 01:15:06 [SPEAKER_02]: It's not real aggressive.
01:15:08 --> 01:15:11 [SPEAKER_02]: The team is very much like it was a year ago.
01:15:12 --> 01:15:18 [SPEAKER_02]: They're different, but in terms of how good they are, it's very, very similar, at least to start the season.
01:15:18 --> 01:15:21 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm most curious if I got the fast forward and learn anything.
01:15:21 --> 01:15:25 [SPEAKER_02]: I'd fast forward to the day after the trade deadline to see what that roster looks like.
01:15:25 --> 01:15:26 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's gonna be fascinating.
01:15:26 --> 01:15:32 [SPEAKER_02]: There could be five new players on that team, a couple from the system, and a couple from the trade market, so really interesting team.
01:15:33 --> 01:15:56 [SPEAKER_02]: church always fun love having you on always great talking ball with you and can't wait to do it again soon four years in a row we make it a five next year I hope to go five next year and hopefully there's an opening date this time last year and that's that's that's a good point to talk about that ending it on a sour note thanks to you thanks guys appreciate it
01:15:59 --> 01:16:01 [SPEAKER_00]: always love talking to church shout out to him.
01:16:02 --> 01:16:05 [SPEAKER_00]: I will say I think TJ and I and a lot of us are higher on this team.
01:16:06 --> 01:16:09 [SPEAKER_00]: Then church is, but very, very unique perspective.
01:16:09 --> 01:16:16 [SPEAKER_00]: I think he highlights some of the very, very nuts and bolts, things about all these different players and the division and the Mariners in general.
01:16:17 --> 01:16:21 [SPEAKER_00]: You get some very unique perspective from church, which is why we love having them on.
01:16:21 --> 01:16:22 [SPEAKER_00]: but opening day is a day away.
01:16:22 --> 01:16:29 [SPEAKER_00]: We really do believe this is going to be an awesome Mariners team that's going to be a ton of fun to watch that's going to be really exciting and we cannot wait for the year to get started.
01:16:30 --> 01:16:32 [SPEAKER_00]: So the next time you hear us
01:16:32 --> 01:16:36 [SPEAKER_00]: We will be having games played and you'll hear us live from a ox dental hall.
01:16:36 --> 01:16:39 [SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully you guys come by after the game and watch the podcast taping.
01:16:39 --> 01:16:42 [SPEAKER_00]: We'd love to have you or come pregame or both seriously it's going to be a blast.
01:16:43 --> 01:16:54 [SPEAKER_00]: With that that just about wraps up this addition of the marine liar pod cast you guys know the drill if you want to listen to the full form podcast you can do so wherever you get your audio pods make sure to download these episodes if you're listening you guys
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01:17:20 --> 01:17:21 [SPEAKER_00]: That's TJ, I'm Lyle.
01:17:21 --> 01:17:23 [SPEAKER_00]: It's always me, thank you guys for tuning in.
01:17:23 --> 01:17:24 [SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk to you soon.