Lyle and TJ are processing the Mariners dropping a shocking series in Detroit, talking through the swings of the weekend (2:30). They then dive into some of the decision-making in the 9th inning (18:17), and then discuss how the Mariners proceed forward with their bullpen after another Andres Muñoz meltdown (32:38).
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00:00 --> 00:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to episode number 413 of the Marine Lairer podcast, we'll react to a shocking mariner series loss and Detroit that I don't think either of us expected.
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00:48 --> 00:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's get it rolling!
01:02 --> 01:07 [SPEAKER_01]: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Lair podcast, part of the just baseball podcast network.
01:07 --> 01:16 [SPEAKER_01]: Reporting here on Sunday evening, June 7th, when they say hashtag rewrite, as our friend Ryan Davis does all the time, this podcast episode
01:24 --> 01:33 [SPEAKER_01]: Hashtag huge disaster had all these wonderful positive things planned out was even going to talk about Luis Castillo in a positive light Or it's like look at the last month.
01:34 --> 01:48 [SPEAKER_01]: He's not been the worst-linking your rotation You're giving him some opportunities to start and my benefit the Mariners and now instead We're going to talk about the Mariners losing just a disaster series Which just essentially got worse is the game went on on Sunday.
01:48 --> 01:53 [SPEAKER_01]: The later it got in that game The more frustrating the Mariners made you until they actually blew it and lost the game
01:55 --> 01:57 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, it's just so bad, man.
01:59 --> 02:00 [SPEAKER_00]: Where do we want to start?
02:00 --> 02:02 [SPEAKER_00]: Do we even want to talk about the other two games?
02:02 --> 02:04 [SPEAKER_00]: They did win one game this weekend.
02:04 --> 02:05 [SPEAKER_00]: They won one.
02:05 --> 02:13 [SPEAKER_00]: They also lost one on Friday where Kerry Carpenter struck again against the Mariners and they ended up losing.
02:13 --> 02:14 [SPEAKER_01]: What happened?
02:14 --> 02:17 [SPEAKER_01]: Walk me through your night on Friday when that happened.
02:18 --> 02:19 [SPEAKER_01]: What was going on?
02:19 --> 02:20 [SPEAKER_01]: What was the reaction?
02:21 --> 02:22 [SPEAKER_00]: I was sitting watching the game.
02:23 --> 02:25 [SPEAKER_00]: Carrie Carpenter didn't do any damages first of bad.
02:25 --> 02:26 [SPEAKER_00]: I said, it's a miracle.
02:27 --> 02:29 [SPEAKER_00]: Second of bad, he leaves the fucking yard.
02:30 --> 02:33 [SPEAKER_00]: And I said, you have got to be shitting me with this.
02:34 --> 02:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, luckily, as we tweet it out, Brian Wu's OPS, the second time through the order is very good.
02:41 --> 02:43 [SPEAKER_00]: Carpenter just happened to get one up and out.
02:44 --> 02:50 [SPEAKER_00]: So it's not like it was a 10 or all the way to Carrie Carpenter level on the Carpenter meter, which by the way,
02:51 --> 03:09 [SPEAKER_00]: You want to pause it from this weekend for any of you that are on social media and I know a bunch of you are now the carpenter meter is officially official if you're watching on YouTube I'll pop it up on screen for you guys in case you haven't seen it yet, but it's officially official the carpenter meter is live the carpenter meter graph has been made and it will be used from here on out
03:10 --> 03:13 [SPEAKER_00]: That home run as maddening is it was to see in real time.
03:14 --> 03:18 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not like it's blow in the carpenter scale off the charts because it wasn't like.
03:19 --> 03:35 [SPEAKER_00]: Game one of the ALDS where George Kirby had zero negative business in any way whatsoever pitching in that abat Dan Wilson somehow miraculously decided to leave him in the game and then they lost it ended up going to five games instead of winning the series in three games but whatever that was last October and I hear I am still running and raving about it.
03:36 --> 03:39 [SPEAKER_00]: This home run is just simply carry carpet or torching the mariners.
03:39 --> 03:40 [SPEAKER_00]: It wasn't some egregious decision.
03:40 --> 03:41 [SPEAKER_01]: However, I was not happy.
03:42 --> 03:44 [SPEAKER_01]: Friday was I can't fucking stand this guy.
03:45 --> 03:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I don't know what he's like as a person, but just watching him as a baseball player against the mariners.
03:52 --> 03:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Madning, the guy has more home runs per a bat than I think anybody.
03:56 --> 03:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Against the mariners.
03:57 --> 03:59 [SPEAKER_01]: more than he might have passed my trout at this point.
04:00 --> 04:02 [SPEAKER_00]: He has less of bats than trout, so that helps, but yeah.
04:02 --> 04:11 [SPEAKER_01]: It's definitely less total, but on a per capita basis, especially last couple of years, it's, ugh, it's not good.
04:11 --> 04:15 [SPEAKER_01]: The big question I think most people want to know and I want to know, did you actually turn the TV off?
04:17 --> 04:18 [SPEAKER_00]: For about a minute, yeah.
04:19 --> 04:21 [SPEAKER_00]: I actually got so mad when it left the yard.
04:22 --> 04:24 [SPEAKER_00]: I picked up the remote and turned it off.
04:24 --> 04:26 [SPEAKER_01]: But did you call me caught as that bat, as you said you would?
04:29 --> 04:33 [SPEAKER_00]: No, I lied, I'm a loser in a liar.
04:33 --> 04:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I watched that stupid home run in real time.
04:35 --> 04:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe part of me just wanted to get mad, which is why I didn't really turn it off because I couldn't stay away from the pain, but I don't know, I watched that up close and it burned them.
04:48 --> 05:03 [SPEAKER_01]: We had a chance here on Sunday for I think of 10 out of 10 on the Carpenter meter or maybe 9 out of 10 because it wouldn't have given the Mariners the lead, but the Mariners in one of their just terrible scenarios here on Sunday, there were a lot of them which we will get to when we'll get to the biggest story here in a second.
05:04 --> 05:08 [SPEAKER_01]: But Carrie, I believe it's the bottom of the sixth inning, Castillo's out there pitching.
05:08 --> 05:12 [SPEAKER_01]: He's been pitching well, but it's the top of the Tigers line up up.
05:12 --> 05:18 [SPEAKER_01]: It's Carrie Carpenter and Kevin McGonagall as the first two batters to face Luis Castillo third time through.
05:19 --> 05:21 [SPEAKER_01]: They had Jose Ferrer ready in the bullpen.
05:21 --> 05:25 [SPEAKER_01]: He had already thrown all of his warm-up pitches and he was waiting to go in.
05:25 --> 05:27 [SPEAKER_01]: And the Mariners let Luis Castillo face.
05:28 --> 05:31 [SPEAKER_01]: Bo, carry Garbender and Kevin McGonagall.
05:31 --> 05:32 [SPEAKER_01]: It didn't burn them.
05:33 --> 05:34 [SPEAKER_01]: Castile got them both out.
05:35 --> 05:40 [SPEAKER_01]: But I'm sitting there on the moon, I mean, like, oh, this has a chance to, like, blow out some ear drums.
05:41 --> 06:07 [SPEAKER_01]: this seriously from if you're just if you're laying out the spreadsheets there's been a lot of talk about baseball spreadsheets this week and my like on a side note holy holy shit um if you were to roll out the spreadsheets and you were to say here's something that cannot happen in like a in like a deciding game of the series if you were to think all right out of the three guys who are throwing this weekend Brian will Bryce Miller Louise Castillo who's the one guy you
06:11 --> 06:12 [SPEAKER_01]: probably Luis Castillo.
06:13 --> 06:24 [SPEAKER_01]: Then not only to the Mariners, let him face those guys three times, but they do it while having a lefty ready to face them, available in the bullpen.
06:25 --> 06:39 [SPEAKER_01]: And the way the top of the, the tiger's lineup is structured, it went carpenter, magonagal, glaver torus, glaver torus has reversed splits this season, where he's been really good against righties and really bad against lefties.
06:39 --> 06:44 [SPEAKER_01]: So if you were to put Ferrarian at the start of the sixth inning, he would have the advantage against all three batters.
06:44 --> 06:47 [SPEAKER_01]: But the mayors decided not to do that for some puzzling reason.
06:49 --> 07:01 [SPEAKER_01]: That was I think our closest chance at a 10 out of 10 on the carry carpenter meter this entire weekend I'm going to be honest I mean it would have been a it was a terrible process.
07:01 --> 07:15 [SPEAKER_00]: It didn't burn them But I don't think it goes to full carry carpenter on the carpenter meter I don't think it gets to 10 our carpenter level and the reason is because as crazy as it would have been Castillo's numbers the third time through the order this year aren't
07:16 --> 07:17 [SPEAKER_00]: crazy awful.
07:17 --> 07:24 [SPEAKER_00]: They're not great, but entering Sunday is numbers the third time through the order, Saturday about a 714 OPS.
07:24 --> 07:26 [SPEAKER_00]: So, not egregious.
07:26 --> 07:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe it would have ranked it about a 7 or 8.
07:28 --> 07:32 [SPEAKER_00]: If I were to personally grade that on the carpenter meter, I would have said about 7 or 8.
07:33 --> 07:35 [SPEAKER_01]: But that's why it's like closest to a ten.
07:36 --> 07:37 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, no, this is close.
07:37 --> 07:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, but again, the re, this just highlights how absurd the decision was in game one last year to let Kirby have that at bat because the numbers were so awful the third time through the order.
07:50 --> 07:52 [SPEAKER_00]: His numbers against Kerry Carpenter were so awful.
07:52 --> 07:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Carpenter's numbers against Kirby were so good and then so awful against lefties.
07:57 --> 08:00 [SPEAKER_00]: and they still let that a back go through.
08:00 --> 08:07 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, dude, it's gonna take a lot to ever get to full carry carpenter level on the carpenter meter.
08:07 --> 08:09 [SPEAKER_00]: Because again, I said it on the last episode.
08:10 --> 08:13 [SPEAKER_00]: It's the worst decision by the numbers I've ever seen made on a baseball field.
08:13 --> 08:23 [SPEAKER_00]: So maybe that move on Sunday, had it burned, would have ranked it in around the seven range, but I don't think it comes close to game one last year.
08:24 --> 08:25 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
08:25 --> 08:31 [SPEAKER_01]: Fairpoint, so a 10 is only going to be a replica of what we saw on the ALDS.
08:32 --> 08:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Or ALCS with moody and bazaar, no?
08:34 --> 08:35 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, fairpoint.
08:35 --> 08:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, it has to be, look, it has to be the egregious of all egregious decisions, especially with empirical data to back it up, and it happens anyway.
08:47 --> 08:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, what happened in game one of the ALDS?
08:49 --> 08:54 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's hit on a couple positives before we spend pretty much the rest of the episode talking about negative things.
08:54 --> 08:55 [SPEAKER_01]: Because there are plenty of negative things.
08:56 --> 09:02 [SPEAKER_01]: Positive number one that jumped out to me this weekend was Bryce Miller's continued dominance.
09:02 --> 09:04 [SPEAKER_01]: And he's got a sub 2 ERA.
09:04 --> 09:09 [SPEAKER_01]: He is absolutely dominating, he's not giving up hits, he's not giving up walks and he's striking out batters.
09:09 --> 09:16 [SPEAKER_01]: We said it last time he started and I'm just going to repeat it again and again and again I'm going to sound like a broken raccoon until he eventually has bad start.
09:16 --> 09:18 [SPEAKER_01]: This is the best version of Bryce Miller we're seeing.
09:19 --> 09:24 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm so happy here in year number what this is year number four for Bryce.
09:24 --> 09:26 [SPEAKER_01]: He is achieving his peak self.
09:26 --> 09:37 [SPEAKER_01]: It's the velocity, his off-speed stuff is as good as it's ever been and he is just on total cruise control up there on the mound and the manners have to be over the moon with what they're seeing from him.
09:38 --> 09:43 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not been perfect for any of the other manners starters this season and a Bryce Miller has not had as many start to them.
09:43 --> 09:45 [SPEAKER_01]: So there is time for him to struggle a little
09:48 --> 09:55 [SPEAKER_01]: But his record so far has been flawless, and he just looks different, then he is looked at any point in his majorly career, and I could be happier.
09:56 --> 09:58 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you put up a one, three ERA.
09:58 --> 09:59 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't care how many starts it's three.
10:00 --> 10:00 [SPEAKER_00]: You're doing something right.
10:01 --> 10:06 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think a lot of it goes to a lot of the positive weight that you put on this past winner.
10:06 --> 10:07 [SPEAKER_00]: And he's talked about that.
10:07 --> 10:09 [SPEAKER_00]: He put on some really good weight over the off season.
10:10 --> 10:21 [SPEAKER_00]: That and being healthy now and taking necessary time to get back from the injury that held him out of bit and spring training at the start of the year, he is clearly all systems go at this point.
10:22 --> 10:26 [SPEAKER_00]: The arm and the elbow and the loose bodies from last year do not seem to be bothering him.
10:27 --> 10:28 [SPEAKER_00]: he is really letting it rep right now.
10:30 --> 10:34 [SPEAKER_01]: And then I'd say the second positive is just more cult Emerson excellence.
10:34 --> 10:35 [SPEAKER_01]: He just keeps doing it.
10:36 --> 10:39 [SPEAKER_01]: He's so, I can't like, I can't understand how young this guy is.
10:40 --> 10:47 [SPEAKER_01]: He's not even 21 years old yet, and he is setting records for extra base hits within first X number of games.
10:47 --> 10:48 [SPEAKER_01]: But it's
10:48 --> 10:51 [SPEAKER_01]: The home runny hit and Detroit on Friday.
10:51 --> 11:01 [SPEAKER_01]: The other way is a really impressive swing in a tough one for a lefty to hit a home run the other way in that ballpark, which is not a small park, especially not a small park down the line.
11:01 --> 11:05 [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's 345 down East line, which is about as long as it gets a majorly baseball.
11:06 --> 11:13 [SPEAKER_01]: And Colt ever since able to hit a home run the other way, and then he's able to show that even when JB Crawford's coming out he's playing shortstop in the
11:13 --> 11:16 [SPEAKER_01]: or getting even better on the infield as well.
11:16 --> 11:22 [SPEAKER_01]: It's been, it's been nice to see that Colt Emerson and we're just continuing to see this is not getting overwhelmed when he comes up.
11:23 --> 11:28 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not been some of the fears we had when they called him up as Brennan Donovan's quote unquote injury replacement.
11:29 --> 11:32 [SPEAKER_01]: He has looked, he's looked ready.
11:33 --> 11:35 [SPEAKER_00]: He left out one part of that home or two.
11:36 --> 11:36 [SPEAKER_00]: Off a lefty.
11:37 --> 11:37 [SPEAKER_01]: Hmm.
11:37 --> 11:38 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh yeah.
11:38 --> 11:39 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
11:40 --> 11:46 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, off-electy, other way, 345 feet down the line and he rides it out.
11:47 --> 11:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Every series he just continues to do something that makes you stop and just marvel at him.
11:52 --> 11:53 [SPEAKER_00]: It's pretty ridiculous what he's doing.
11:55 --> 11:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Is that all the positives?
11:58 --> 12:03 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Josh Nailer seemed to get in the head of a lot of Tiger stands and Tiger's players this week, and that's for sure.
12:05 --> 12:10 [SPEAKER_01]: I think the tiger's and tiger's fans need to just chill a little bit.
12:11 --> 12:14 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think there's a single thing Josh Newler did that was dirty.
12:14 --> 12:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Not a single one.
12:16 --> 12:26 [SPEAKER_01]: I feel like when his sliding mitt and game two came out of his hand and went into Dingler's body, that didn't look intentional to me.
12:26 --> 12:31 [SPEAKER_01]: I think it just fell out of Josh Newler's hand and he's while you're running like this,
12:34 --> 12:37 [SPEAKER_01]: Right, and it's not it's not like he threw his helmet at him.
12:37 --> 12:48 [SPEAKER_01]: It's a harmless little soft mint Okay, so that's number one number two was Josh Nailer having to when he made contact with Maghada go at first base and game one
12:49 --> 12:57 [SPEAKER_01]: Like, that's on, nailer bobbled the ball, which is why he ran to get their himself, but also that happens all the time and it's never dirty.
12:57 --> 12:59 [SPEAKER_01]: No, he's now running to the base.
12:59 --> 13:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, nailer probably should have just flipped it to be honest.
13:02 --> 13:05 [SPEAKER_00]: He should have thrown it to woo covering, but whatever.
13:07 --> 13:11 [SPEAKER_00]: This is also another reason, majorly baseball probably needs the safety base at some point.
13:12 --> 13:13 [SPEAKER_00]: College baseball uses it.
13:13 --> 13:15 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't really know what the harm is against it.
13:16 --> 13:20 [SPEAKER_00]: It would save a lot of collisions at first base and doesn't seem like much extra effort either.
13:20 --> 13:22 [SPEAKER_01]: No, it doesn't.
13:22 --> 13:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe some egos?
13:24 --> 13:24 [SPEAKER_01]: We don't need that.
13:25 --> 13:25 [SPEAKER_01]: Soft.
13:26 --> 13:26 [SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
13:26 --> 13:33 [SPEAKER_00]: It feels like a decent price to pay of some a few egos to make sure nobody's getting destroyed out there.
13:35 --> 13:40 [SPEAKER_01]: The only people who did something dirty this weekend was Kader Montero throwing at the head of Josh Nailer.
13:40 --> 13:40 [SPEAKER_00]: That was it.
13:41 --> 13:41 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
13:41 --> 13:42 [SPEAKER_01]: That was the dirty.
13:42 --> 13:43 [SPEAKER_01]: The dirty play.
13:43 --> 13:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, and then I guess they're- Oh, then Framber Valdez laughing at Josh Nailer after the fact.
13:49 --> 13:50 [SPEAKER_00]: What?
13:50 --> 13:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Frammer, what are we surprised at?
13:52 --> 13:53 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean Frammer would never do something like that.
13:53 --> 13:54 [SPEAKER_00]: What are you talking about?
13:54 --> 13:56 [SPEAKER_01]: Frammer's only thrown out the marital is intentionally what?
13:56 --> 13:58 [SPEAKER_01]: Like, three times in his career.
13:58 --> 13:59 [SPEAKER_00]: That's it.
13:59 --> 14:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, like three times, then crossed up his own catcher, heading into free agency, and then he was thrown at the Red Sox earlier this year.
14:06 --> 14:07 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, to the Frammer wouldn't do that.
14:07 --> 14:09 [SPEAKER_01]: No, never.
14:10 --> 14:10 [SPEAKER_01]: Hmm.
14:12 --> 14:18 [SPEAKER_00]: To hear he was laughing and pointing when Nailer got nearly hit in the head, sounds on brand for Framber.
14:18 --> 14:19 [SPEAKER_01]: And Josh knew we were right away.
14:19 --> 14:20 [SPEAKER_01]: He's getting thrown out.
14:20 --> 14:23 [SPEAKER_01]: He had the biggest smile on his face after he picked up his head after he got thrown out.
14:24 --> 14:24 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
14:25 --> 14:26 [SPEAKER_01]: This is the game we're playing.
14:27 --> 14:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
14:27 --> 14:31 [SPEAKER_00]: I was going to say, I think the quote he said to Dylan Dingler is he's picking up his helmet.
14:32 --> 14:33 [SPEAKER_00]: We're playing this baseball game today, huh?
14:34 --> 14:34 [SPEAKER_00]: It's like all right.
14:35 --> 14:38 [SPEAKER_00]: It is very Josh Nailer to be laughing after he nearly hit in the head.
14:40 --> 14:41 [SPEAKER_00]: knew it was coming at that point.
14:41 --> 14:45 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, probably someone someone on the tiger's might have told him, hey, watch out.
14:46 --> 14:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, could be as a threat.
14:49 --> 14:52 [SPEAKER_00]: The other thing was the slide into second base on which was a merchant.
14:52 --> 14:55 [SPEAKER_00]: He slit he he was that was a legal slide.
14:56 --> 15:01 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, true because his hand was still in like a Jason to the base, which is the Ranger allowed to be at.
15:01 --> 15:07 [SPEAKER_01]: You are allowed to break up a double play as long as you're sliding to the base and he slid perfectly
15:11 --> 15:18 [SPEAKER_00]: I was going to say, compare that slide to the chase-hotley slide in the ALCS against Miguel to hot, not Miguel to hot.
15:18 --> 15:19 [SPEAKER_00]: With the Rubin to hot.
15:19 --> 15:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the DS with, it was, yeah, was Rubin to hot.
15:23 --> 15:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Who's that?
15:24 --> 15:26 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, yeah, broke his leg.
15:26 --> 15:27 [SPEAKER_00]: That slide was nowhere close.
15:28 --> 15:29 [SPEAKER_00]: Like the oddly slide.
15:29 --> 15:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that's about as intentional as it gets.
15:32 --> 15:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Also, he only half slid.
15:34 --> 15:38 [SPEAKER_00]: He almost, he almost kind of went like partially headfirst into Todd, back then.
15:39 --> 15:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, the nailer slide wasn't ill intended.
15:43 --> 15:45 [SPEAKER_00]: Again, he tried to break up the double play.
15:45 --> 15:46 [SPEAKER_00]: He didn't even make contact with him.
15:53 --> 15:57 [SPEAKER_01]: There was only one team that did dirty stuff this weekend, and that is the Detroit Tigers.
15:58 --> 15:59 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
15:59 --> 16:01 [SPEAKER_01]: I could not lay it out there any simpler.
16:01 --> 16:07 [SPEAKER_01]: All the things the Tigers are accusing Josh Nailer of doing, they did to Josh Nailer.
16:08 --> 16:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's correct.
16:09 --> 16:10 [SPEAKER_01]: Like, take a look in the mirror, please.
16:11 --> 16:11 [SPEAKER_01]: That's it.
16:13 --> 16:15 [SPEAKER_01]: I love that he's just under their skin, the entire weekend.
16:16 --> 16:16 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, yeah.
16:16 --> 16:18 [SPEAKER_00]: And then again, wouldn't shock me if,
16:20 --> 16:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, actually, I was going to say it wouldn't shock me if he was under their skin.
16:23 --> 16:24 [SPEAKER_00]: He wasn't under their skin.
16:24 --> 16:33 [SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't shock me that Framber had a heavy part in all that, that he's got, you know, that he's caught laughing at him and he's caught pointing at him because, again, he's got a history of it.
16:33 --> 16:36 [SPEAKER_00]: And then there's one other point I was going to make.
16:36 --> 16:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, well, then AJ Hinch was asked about a post game and he's talking about how, look, you're not so, he said the rule now is you're not supposed to slide through the base and he left a quote in there that said,
16:48 --> 16:50 [SPEAKER_00]: I almost forgot what Arrow we're playing in.
16:50 --> 16:55 [SPEAKER_00]: Look, let me say this, I really, really do like AJ Hinch as a manager.
16:56 --> 16:57 [SPEAKER_00]: I've always thought he's a very good manager.
16:58 --> 17:10 [SPEAKER_00]: I still think that, but when he puts out a quote like that, it's pretty low hanging fruit for any of the other 29 fan bases to say, hey, man, are you sitting here talking about morals?
17:11 --> 17:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's not play this game.
17:13 --> 17:41 [SPEAKER_01]: let's not go back to 2017 and talk about morals and he's he's making up situations that never happened did you actually was slide through the base and you'd be the judge I don't know he did not okay yeah he's like anyone would slide into second is sure yeah yeah yeah a.j.hitches is just talking about things that did not happen well so those my those made for some fun theatrics this weekend i thought there was a
17:43 --> 17:52 [SPEAKER_01]: There would have been more entertaining for us, given what actually happened on on Sunday instead.
17:53 --> 17:59 [SPEAKER_01]: We should talk about that because I think people have waited long enough for that, but before we get to that level, let's pause here for a nap.
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19:10 --> 19:12 [SPEAKER_01]: We got to talk about how Sunday ended.
19:13 --> 19:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Andres Muñoz blows the save.
19:15 --> 19:27 [SPEAKER_01]: The Mariners looked like they were going to win the series and instead here we are sitting on Sunday even in talking about a Mariners series loss to a tween that has been really bad for a lot of the season, especially after Terrick Scoobal went out.
19:28 --> 19:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Where do we want to start?
19:31 --> 19:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh.
19:33 --> 19:34 [SPEAKER_00]: You picked.
19:34 --> 19:35 [SPEAKER_00]: Do you want to start with the 9Dening?
19:35 --> 19:36 [SPEAKER_00]: Do you want to start with it?
19:37 --> 19:38 [SPEAKER_00]: How it all unfolded?
19:38 --> 19:41 [SPEAKER_00]: Because I think there's conversations to be had after we get done with the game itself.
19:44 --> 19:50 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I would say how with how the ninth unfolded, uh, obviously, Munoz is the right choice there.
19:50 --> 19:54 [SPEAKER_01]: This is his inning as, you know, organized between him and the team.
19:55 --> 19:56 [SPEAKER_01]: He's always going to pitch the ninth inning.
19:56 --> 20:08 [SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be the De facto Closer and he gets the bottom third of the lineup and what Andre's Munoz did is that after he threw strike one to Spencer Torkelson, he was behind every single batter that he faced.
20:09 --> 20:18 [SPEAKER_01]: And if you want to main reason, like yeah, he walked a bunch of guys, but Andre's moonuous is not does not put himself in good situations this season to succeed.
20:19 --> 20:29 [SPEAKER_01]: And he, I think this was the worst version of that for what we saw on Sunday afternoon, where he's just not in the strikes on and off, and the Tigers.
20:31 --> 20:51 [SPEAKER_01]: Can just sit there and take until they get the right pitch and then Kevin McGonagall makes him pay I think the situation you're referring to when we're talking about the ninth inning specifically is Whether or not they should have intentionally walked Kevin McGonagall because there is runners on second and third with two outs and Glabre Torres on deck Remunius is much better against varieties than he is against lefties.
20:51 --> 20:56 [SPEAKER_01]: That's not really a surprise and The runner the run it first doesn't matter.
20:56 --> 20:57 [SPEAKER_01]: So if you walk him
20:58 --> 21:05 [SPEAKER_01]: you give yourself more options for outs, and you get a face more favorable matchup for on-draised moonios.
21:06 --> 21:09 [SPEAKER_01]: They decided not to do that and chemical made them made a pay.
21:10 --> 21:18 [SPEAKER_01]: My opinion on that is I don't think it's as big of a deal as I think you and I see this a little bit differently.
21:21 --> 21:26 [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's a big deal because there's two things that are true and this way agreed on.
21:26 --> 21:29 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not the end all be all reason they lost.
21:30 --> 21:33 [SPEAKER_00]: It might not even be in the top two reasons that they lost.
21:33 --> 21:34 [SPEAKER_00]: But it is a big deal.
21:35 --> 21:36 [SPEAKER_00]: And it's not a good decision.
21:37 --> 21:43 [SPEAKER_00]: Because again, man, I understand Muno's had been really rough in that inning.
21:43 --> 21:46 [SPEAKER_00]: And it was a rough inning overall, especially with the way it ended.
21:47 --> 21:49 [SPEAKER_00]: And yes, he should have gotten the earlier batters in the inning out.
21:50 --> 21:54 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, do you have that tweet in front of you about the WRC plus hitters to start the inning?
21:54 --> 21:55 [SPEAKER_00]: Or no.
21:55 --> 21:55 [SPEAKER_01]: No, but I could pull it up.
21:56 --> 21:58 [SPEAKER_00]: here.
22:00 --> 22:00 [SPEAKER_00]: I can get it if you need it.
22:01 --> 22:01 [SPEAKER_00]: Want me to pull it up?
22:02 --> 22:03 [SPEAKER_01]: No, I could find it.
22:03 --> 22:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
22:04 --> 22:04 [SPEAKER_00]: So.
22:06 --> 22:14 [SPEAKER_01]: The hitters that gave Munoz to start that inning to start the inning their splits versus Rites this season by WRC+.
22:15 --> 22:19 [SPEAKER_01]: Spencer Torkelson has a 91 WRC plus against Rites this year.
22:19 --> 22:20 [SPEAKER_01]: Zach McHenstree has a 35.
22:21 --> 22:30 [SPEAKER_01]: When Seal Perez has a 21 in Matt Verling has a 40, Andre's Munoz was pitching behind all three of those four guys and walked to of them.
22:30 --> 22:58 [SPEAKER_00]: some competitively uncompetitively so that is Spencer Turkelson who is a below average hitter against rites and three guys who are not just below average they are atrocious against rites and it was and they were non-competitive at that that had very very little command featured at Andre's Minus and those at that that is all true all of that being said all of it there were two outs in the inning there were one measly out of way from getting a series win
23:00 --> 23:03 [SPEAKER_00]: I know Muno's had not been good, but I'm sorry, man.
23:03 --> 23:06 [SPEAKER_00]: How many times do we talk about this team on the margins?
23:06 --> 23:08 [SPEAKER_00]: We do it all the time.
23:08 --> 23:14 [SPEAKER_00]: They are a bad team on the margins with the base running, with the defense, surely with things like this.
23:14 --> 23:20 [SPEAKER_00]: And when you get put into those situations, you have got to put your players in the best position to win.
23:21 --> 23:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Yet, again, that doesn't happen.
23:22 --> 23:23 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, seriously, like
23:24 --> 23:27 [SPEAKER_00]: every fucking week with this thing.
23:27 --> 23:33 [SPEAKER_00]: There's decisions like this that go south and there's things that blow up and potentially cost them games.
23:33 --> 23:35 [SPEAKER_00]: This one ultimately did.
23:35 --> 23:38 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, Munoz deserves a big share of the blame, but in that moment.
23:38 --> 23:40 [SPEAKER_01]: Biggest share of the blame.
23:40 --> 23:41 [SPEAKER_00]: Biggest, biggest, biggest.
23:41 --> 23:43 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, you should have gotten the earlier batters in the innings out.
23:44 --> 23:48 [SPEAKER_00]: But once that unfold, you're in that situation.
23:48 --> 23:50 [SPEAKER_00]: And you still have a chance to win the game.
23:50 --> 23:52 [SPEAKER_00]: If you walk McGonagone, get Labor Torres.
23:53 --> 23:55 [SPEAKER_00]: Everything is forgotten about.
23:55 --> 24:00 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we're still going to sit here and have a conversation about Munoz looking shaky in the 9th.
24:00 --> 24:09 [SPEAKER_00]: Sure, but ultimately we're sitting here talking about a mariner series win, and we are going through more of Luis Castillo's good month and Bryce Miller's dominant outing, and maybe more Cold Emerson talk.
24:10 --> 24:10 [SPEAKER_00]: And not all this.
24:11 --> 24:15 [SPEAKER_00]: Despite Labor Taurus having the reverse splits, because yes, it is true.
24:15 --> 24:18 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what's going on with Labor Taurus this year.
24:18 --> 24:24 [SPEAKER_00]: Why his splits are so drastic as we said here in early June, but they are what they are.
24:24 --> 24:29 [SPEAKER_00]: Labor Taurus this year is OPSing 812 against right-handed pitching.
24:30 --> 24:33 [SPEAKER_00]: And for whatever reason, he's hitting 103 with a 633 OPS against lefties.
24:35 --> 24:37 [SPEAKER_00]: Torres has hit right as better.
24:37 --> 24:40 [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm sure that played some factor into this.
24:40 --> 24:42 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure like you would think it did.
24:43 --> 24:45 [SPEAKER_00]: But that's only one part of the three step equation here.
24:46 --> 24:57 [SPEAKER_00]: The Gleiber Torres factors one, the second factor is the Kevin Magonigal part of this, which is first and foremost, who's been the tiger's best player this year, and best header.
24:58 --> 24:59 [SPEAKER_01]: Kevin Magonigal.
24:59 --> 25:00 [SPEAKER_00]: It's been Kevin Magonigal.
25:00 --> 25:02 [SPEAKER_01]: And in Riley Green, but yeah, Kevin Magonigal.
25:02 --> 25:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Kevin Magonigal has been their best player.
25:05 --> 25:15 [SPEAKER_00]: And when you throw every other number out, every other number, and just focus on this specific point, it is the Mariners decided to pitch to the Tigers best hitter with an open base.
25:17 --> 25:17 [SPEAKER_00]: What?
25:18 --> 25:19 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that doesn't make any sense.
25:20 --> 25:29 [SPEAKER_00]: then you look at McGonagall splits and McGonagall on the year has an 829 OPS against Rites and an OPS against lefties of 732.
25:29 --> 25:32 [SPEAKER_00]: It's about a 100 point difference.
25:32 --> 25:35 [SPEAKER_00]: He is worse against lefties than Rites.
25:36 --> 25:39 [SPEAKER_00]: But then on top of all of that, there's the Muno's factor.
25:40 --> 25:45 [SPEAKER_00]: And the Muno's factor is what does he do in these situations against each side of the plate?
25:46 --> 25:47 [SPEAKER_00]: It is not close, man.
25:47 --> 25:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Andre's Muno's on the year.
25:50 --> 25:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Against, I mean, it's been like this most of his career.
25:52 --> 25:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Muno's against lefties this year is getting crushed.
25:55 --> 25:57 [SPEAKER_00]: He's given up in 863 OPS against lefties.
25:58 --> 25:59 [SPEAKER_00]: and against righties it's 536.
25:59 --> 26:22 [SPEAKER_00]: That is more than a three hundred point difference for moonios against righties than lefties and despite a really really brutal start to the inning it could have all been wiped away by potentially just giving them the right match up to succeed and all he needs is one to three pitches, one to three good pitches and everything's wiped away.
26:23 --> 26:24 [SPEAKER_00]: But no, you don't do that.
26:25 --> 26:31 [SPEAKER_00]: You let him throw to the lefty, who's been the best hitter on their team, who also hits righty's better than lefty.
26:31 --> 26:34 [SPEAKER_00]: His moonios is way worse against lefty's, and it opened dates.
26:35 --> 26:38 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, I'm sorry, man, things like this, we say it all the time.
26:38 --> 26:39 [SPEAKER_00]: It pops up way too often.
26:40 --> 26:42 [SPEAKER_00]: It did it, it happened again this weekend.
26:42 --> 26:44 [SPEAKER_00]: And you talk about being bad around the margins.
26:45 --> 26:53 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure anything is more prevalent, even with the defense than when these decisions get made and they blow up in their face.
26:54 --> 26:57 [SPEAKER_00]: And it has every, again, it can every fucking week.
26:57 --> 26:59 [SPEAKER_00]: There are decisions like this that happen.
27:00 --> 27:06 [SPEAKER_01]: I think all of that can totally be true with all of that sediment, but none of it matters if Andre's menu says does a job.
27:07 --> 27:24 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, but can't both be true, but I can't be true, but I will say from the perspective of the argument you're making right now, there is a greater share of your energy being spent on this decision, instead of on Andre's Munoz.
27:24 --> 27:34 [SPEAKER_01]: who ultimately was tasked with facing four below average to bad hitters against right handed pitching and unable to get them out.
27:35 --> 27:44 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, that's how I'm looking at this and he was and he was not performing up to anywhere near his standards in those abats There's there's no question about that.
27:45 --> 27:46 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know how much else.
27:46 --> 27:52 [SPEAKER_00]: There is to say about what he did in those abats He didn't have command those guys don't hit righties at all.
27:52 --> 27:57 [SPEAKER_00]: He wasn't in the zone and it costed them the game like like yes that all happened
27:58 --> 28:00 [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not, I'm not denying that.
28:00 --> 28:01 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm acknowledging that.
28:02 --> 28:08 [SPEAKER_00]: Monio should have gotten those guys out before it ever got to the heart of the order with with McGonagall and with Glebert Torres.
28:08 --> 28:11 [SPEAKER_00]: But it got to where it got to, unfortunately.
28:11 --> 28:13 [SPEAKER_00]: And once it gets to that point,
28:15 --> 28:19 [SPEAKER_00]: like you have to attempt to put your players in the best position to win.
28:19 --> 28:24 [SPEAKER_00]: Why the hell are you letting their best hitter hit with an open base when you're up a run with two outs.
28:25 --> 28:28 [SPEAKER_00]: And then you get a right on right match up for Munoz on deck.
28:28 --> 28:32 [SPEAKER_01]: And it's seen the Mariners were unprepared for that, which is a problem.
28:34 --> 28:39 [SPEAKER_00]: and how often are we saying things like that every single week.
28:39 --> 28:43 [SPEAKER_00]: They were unprepared for a certain situation where a crucial decision has to be made.
28:43 --> 28:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Again, every week we talk about this.
28:46 --> 28:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Something pops up every week and it doesn't really seem to ever improve.
28:51 --> 28:52 [SPEAKER_00]: No.
28:52 --> 28:57 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I'm not expecting it to ever improve until the decision makers change.
28:57 --> 28:59 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how it's supposed to improve.
29:01 --> 29:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Dan Wilson could get better at making decisions.
29:04 --> 29:27 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if it's whether it's what I mean I feel like he would buy now Right, I mean yeah, you would think But again, so this day to this day we still do not have legitimate explanations from anybody on why the Kirby versus Carpenter about was deployed in game one of the ALDS last year nobody's given a reasonable explanation for that and more importantly and probably more Prudently
29:28 --> 29:35 [SPEAKER_00]: there's still been an explanation from nobody on why moonios was not in the game over bizarre and game seven last year
29:36 --> 29:37 [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, I'd say that.
29:38 --> 30:01 [SPEAKER_01]: I was just going to mention that I think you and I have talked to enough people that I just don't really feel confident and decision making change it, changing like I just think again, just literally think about Think about the situation we laid out earlier in this game, which was on paper a worse decision than the Kevin McGonagall versus Andre Spunios, because ultimately, again, Andre Spunios is supposed to be the mayor's best reliever.
30:01 --> 30:04 [SPEAKER_01]: And theory, it should not matter who he's facing.
30:04 --> 30:11 [SPEAKER_01]: If you need to, if you need your best reliever to intentionally walk somebody because you can't get him out, then you're not the best reliever anymore.
30:11 --> 30:12 [SPEAKER_01]: Is that fair?
30:13 --> 30:16 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it is, yes.
30:16 --> 30:17 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, let me finish this point.
30:18 --> 30:24 [SPEAKER_01]: The Castillo against Kerry Carpenter and Kevin McGonagall in the sixth inning on paper.
30:25 --> 30:41 [SPEAKER_01]: is is a worst decision, maybe it's not as high leverage because it's the 6th inning and not the 9th inning and it's a 3 run game instead of a 1 run game, but sitting there and looking at that when you have flair up ready in the bullpen and for some reason the decision is not made.
30:42 --> 30:49 [SPEAKER_01]: to put them in against the one outlier platoon lefty in the in the tiger's lineup is a little confusing.
30:49 --> 30:50 [SPEAKER_01]: That one actually doesn't make much sense.
30:50 --> 30:57 [SPEAKER_01]: That one is is literally like, okay, it seems like the Mariners have planned for this and it's the move still doesn't get made.
30:58 --> 31:04 [SPEAKER_01]: With your team's war starter for the for the year on the mound, that one doesn't make much even even less sense than the
31:06 --> 31:08 [SPEAKER_00]: No, no, it doesn't make any sense.
31:08 --> 31:14 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm just saying, again, with this matchup, I understand there is a factor of this, that Labor Taurus does have reverse splits this year.
31:15 --> 31:19 [SPEAKER_00]: But of the three part equation, two of them are in your favor.
31:20 --> 31:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, two of them are in the favor of make the move, man.
31:22 --> 31:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Besides, and I'm not even factory in just the idea that McGonagall's their best player.
31:27 --> 31:32 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, it's just the idea of McGonagall's worst against lefties and Muno's is better against righties.
31:32 --> 31:35 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, and there's an open base, and McGonagall's their best player.
31:37 --> 31:39 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm taking my chance against Glaver in that situation, man.
31:39 --> 31:41 [SPEAKER_00]: He's not the hitter that McGonagall is.
31:44 --> 31:45 [SPEAKER_01]: No, no, he's not.
31:46 --> 31:49 [SPEAKER_01]: So, it can all be bad.
31:49 --> 31:51 [SPEAKER_01]: I think it can all be very bad.
31:51 --> 31:52 [SPEAKER_01]: Munoz was bad.
31:52 --> 31:55 [SPEAKER_01]: Dan was bad, and the mayor knows we're just bad in that night inning.
31:55 --> 31:57 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, we haven't actually mentioned that a night inning, by the way.
31:57 --> 31:58 [SPEAKER_01]: You talk about the margins.
31:59 --> 32:01 [SPEAKER_01]: What are the mayor's doing the top half of the night inning, while?
32:02 --> 32:08 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, usually Josh Nailer is really, really good about reading pictures and getting these crazy jumps.
32:08 --> 32:14 [SPEAKER_00]: Unfortunately, he did not have a good enough read in the top of the 9th inning because he got himself thrown out at the second base.
32:15 --> 32:21 [SPEAKER_00]: Then Randy Arrows Arena gets picked off again on a back pick at first base and then Luke Rayleigh strikes out.
32:23 --> 32:36 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, and then if you want to add on some marginal issues too, I mean, Patrick, wisdom hat his errors in the game, so that cost it on, uh, there's Naylor's defense, which is all the sudden taking a massive dip in the last month.
32:36 --> 32:39 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it just, it just catching the ball at first base and he's not doing it.
32:40 --> 32:46 [SPEAKER_01]: That's, that's, that's troubling for an infield that doesn't have perfect throwers all over the place.
32:47 --> 32:48 [SPEAKER_01]: It seems a little troubling.
32:49 --> 32:54 [SPEAKER_01]: Like there was a ball I think wisdom through to him that it didn't even skip and nail or missed it this weekend.
32:55 --> 32:56 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
32:56 --> 32:58 [SPEAKER_01]: That's a little troubling to me.
32:58 --> 32:59 [SPEAKER_01]: Mm-hmm.
32:59 --> 33:01 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's definitely troubling.
33:01 --> 33:02 [SPEAKER_01]: A lot of stuff on the margins.
33:02 --> 33:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's Dan Wilson's decision making, but again, some of these issues just continue to pop up.
33:08 --> 33:16 [SPEAKER_01]: Like the Mariners could have definitely used another insurance run in the top of the night dating and they had two runners on base and they both got themselves out.
33:18 --> 33:20 [SPEAKER_00]: It's so hard to win when you do that.
33:20 --> 33:23 [SPEAKER_01]: It is so so hard to win when you do that.
33:24 --> 33:29 [SPEAKER_01]: And the Mariners man managed to run themselves into more outs and they end up losing this game and just in just royal fashion.
33:30 --> 33:33 [SPEAKER_01]: It's that night thing it was about as frustrating of an ending as I've seen this season.
33:33 --> 33:35 [SPEAKER_01]: Just with a total self implosion.
33:36 --> 33:37 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not the other team beating you.
33:37 --> 33:38 [SPEAKER_01]: No, it's just you beating yourself.
33:39 --> 33:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, complete self implosion.
33:41 --> 33:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, which I think leads to now a bigger picture question that we now have to get to, but before that, let's pause for a night.
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35:13 --> 35:38 [SPEAKER_01]: more specifically how do they manage Andres Munoz so Andres Munoz has been ever since Dan Wilson took over he has been their closer they have shifted from the Scott service model of throw your best relievers in the highest leverage situations to going to a more traditional bullpen a more traditional bullpen structure with someone who only pitches the night
35:40 --> 35:42 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, Andre Spunio's in the ninth inning this year has been terrible.
35:43 --> 35:45 [SPEAKER_01]: His ERA is now five and a half.
35:45 --> 35:50 [SPEAKER_01]: He is throwing the fewest amount of strikes he's ever thrown in his major league career.
35:50 --> 35:55 [SPEAKER_01]: He's normally in the zone about 47 to 48% of the time-low when he's at his best.
35:55 --> 35:56 [SPEAKER_01]: This year it's 40%.
35:57 --> 36:24 [SPEAKER_01]: too many pitches outside the strike zone and it's really hurting him being consistent in a situation like today where he's just way too out of the strike zone and it's a real shame because this slider is about as good as it's ever been this season but the problem is some of his other pitchers have been out of the strike zone a little bit too much which is causing hitters to really zero in on the pitches that they can do damage on like when he throws this fastball down the middle of them then those who damage on or they'll let himself
36:25 --> 36:40 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think a, a big issue here is, is, is Andre smoothness is just not performing well in the ninth inning and people may ask in guys, it's time to move Andre smoothness out of the ninth inning and I say totally fair, but I think it's so much more complicated than that.
36:42 --> 36:46 [SPEAKER_00]: It is way more complicated than that and give us 60 seconds before we even get further into it.
36:46 --> 36:50 [SPEAKER_00]: I do just want to mention for people because it probably wouldn't show up at face value.
36:51 --> 36:51 [SPEAKER_00]: It's crazy.
36:52 --> 36:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Munoz is walk rate, at least entering Sunday.
36:55 --> 36:59 [SPEAKER_00]: It's actually way better this year than it was last year, which is crazy.
37:00 --> 37:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Like his walk rate this year, entering Sunday ranks in the 71st percentile of the league.
37:06 --> 37:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Last year it was in the 11th percentile, he was walking way more batters last year than he walked this year, at least entering Sunday's outing.
37:14 --> 37:24 [SPEAKER_00]: And he's still getting a ton of swing and miss, I mean a ton of swing and miss, where he's run into problems this year, is he is getting hit really hard.
37:25 --> 37:39 [SPEAKER_00]: And like something is not fooling opponents this year because he's getting barrel that and then you pair it with the erratic command and control on like you've seen an outings like Sunday and like some others that's where it can get really problematic.
37:41 --> 37:46 [SPEAKER_01]: Here's why moving Andre's Munoz out of the closer role is a little tricky.
37:47 --> 37:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's look at this Sunday scenario for a second.
37:50 --> 38:00 [SPEAKER_01]: And the reason people are saying this is because it's like let's put Andre's Munoz in situations with less leverage than he saw here on Sunday.
38:01 --> 38:16 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Andre Spunio came into the game here in the ninth inning, again, as a closer so he's blank it, pitching the ninth inning no matter what, no matter he's pitching the middle of the lineup or he's facing the, uh, he's facing the bottom of the tiger's lineup which today, he got to face the tiger's lineup.
38:17 --> 38:26 [SPEAKER_01]: If I were to say to you, while I think the goal here for Andre Spunio is going forward is to get him into more situations where he's facing the bottom of the lineup and low pressure situations.
38:26 --> 38:26 [SPEAKER_01]: Is that fair?
38:28 --> 38:28 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that'd be great.
38:28 --> 38:41 [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, especially if he gets his confidence on track, hypothetically, but then here today on Sunday, he's facing the bottom of the tiger's line up against three hitters who don't hit right handers.
38:41 --> 38:43 [SPEAKER_00]: Isn't this the scenario you want him to pitch in?
38:44 --> 38:53 [SPEAKER_00]: You would think, you would definitely think, now there's the equation of, do you want Muno's throwing at an earlier inning?
38:53 --> 38:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Do you want Muno's throwing in a situation that isn't as high leverage?
38:56 --> 39:00 [SPEAKER_00]: Do you want him throwing in a situation where they have a bigger lead?
39:00 --> 39:07 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe that's how you get it back on track, but as we're gonna unravel here, there's problems that come along with that too.
39:09 --> 39:12 [SPEAKER_01]: number one, so this is let me start off on this.
39:13 --> 39:20 [SPEAKER_01]: There's a reason I don't like traditional closers anymore, because I think the thinking of traditional closers are so flawed.
39:20 --> 39:25 [SPEAKER_01]: You want your best relievers facing their best players, because that gives you your best chance to get them out.
39:26 --> 39:35 [SPEAKER_01]: As you see, if you were to just lay it out, Andre's Muno's being the best reliever, you would rather him throw in inning before against the middle of the tiger's lineup,
39:38 --> 40:02 [SPEAKER_01]: the bottom of the tiger's lineup you'd rather a bazar to pitch the ninth inning today if you're doing it based on a on a like a leverage scale and how good of a reliever you are because you think that would be more worth it then using moonios and using his pitches against guys who are just frankly not as good as some of the other guys in that lineup but instead the mariners just stick to their guns and put undress moonios in the ninth inning against the bottom of the lineup
40:04 --> 40:14 [SPEAKER_01]: So like that like does that that doesn't make much sense to me and in like a closer world like oh, this is your highest leverage guy was that ninth inning the highest leverage situation of the game.
40:14 --> 40:15 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't really think so.
40:15 --> 40:24 [SPEAKER_01]: I know what was the final three outs of the game, but the only reason that was a leverage scenario is because Andre's moon you was made at a leverage scenario when he was not throwing enough strikes.
40:25 --> 40:25 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
40:25 --> 40:29 [SPEAKER_01]: So it's just not you can't just move Andre's moonios out of the ninth inning.
40:29 --> 40:33 [SPEAKER_01]: You say, okay, the leverage is going to get the leverage is going to get lower.
40:33 --> 40:36 [SPEAKER_01]: He's going to fix and he's going to fix himself and he's going to get a lot better.
40:36 --> 40:45 [SPEAKER_01]: The only way this changes from Sunday is if you're throwing him in like the seven thinning against the bottom of the lineup, not in the ninth inning against the bottom of the lineup.
40:46 --> 40:50 [SPEAKER_01]: And that's kind of like a really narrow window to throw Andre's moonios.
40:51 --> 40:52 [SPEAKER_01]: He can only pitch
40:53 --> 41:03 [SPEAKER_01]: But like eight thinning in before against not the middle of their lineup because he needs to learn he needs to really learn how to throw more strikes that doesn't that sound oddly specific for one of your leverage guys.
41:03 --> 41:14 [SPEAKER_01]: I think that sounds like a headache for a for coaching staff that already struggles to make correct decisions with their relievers asked them to make that one I think they would get wrong.
41:15 --> 41:17 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it creates a huge headache.
41:18 --> 41:25 [SPEAKER_00]: So, and it's too narrow with scenario to be putting Munoz into, because there's only so many situations where that pops up.
41:25 --> 41:31 [SPEAKER_00]: And that leads to the final part of this, which is if Munoz isn't gonna throw the ninth, who is?
41:31 --> 41:36 [SPEAKER_00]: And of your options, I think you and I see this eye to eye, which is,
41:37 --> 41:49 [SPEAKER_00]: You don't want one of your lefties closing games and being stuck to the ninth inning, because there's too many scenarios earlier in the game, where you need those two dominant lefties against specific lefty pockets to get you out of situations.
41:50 --> 41:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Look at, I mean, look at Gabe's buyer, for example, in Sunday's outing.
41:53 --> 41:54 [SPEAKER_00]: He got him out of a jam.
41:55 --> 41:58 [SPEAKER_00]: He had to come into a tough situation and bail him out and he did.
41:59 --> 42:02 [SPEAKER_00]: If Gabe's buyer's not pitching there, maybe the game already unravels earlier.
42:03 --> 42:05 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you need those lefties to be facing lefties.
42:06 --> 42:13 [SPEAKER_01]: I think they need to be situational pitchers, they need to be put in in specific pockets of the lineup to maximize their efficiency.
42:14 --> 42:17 [SPEAKER_01]: It's just so inefficient to just pitch someone in the ninth inning.
42:18 --> 42:21 [SPEAKER_01]: You're leaving so much on the table by just doing that.
42:22 --> 42:30 [SPEAKER_01]: What I think the Mariners need to do while is I think they just need to throw the idea the clothes are out and then just use Muñoz against matchups they think best suit him.
42:31 --> 42:31 [SPEAKER_01]: Right.
42:31 --> 42:32 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's what I think.
42:32 --> 42:37 [SPEAKER_01]: I think they need to ditch this closer thing and I think they need to just throw him whenever.
42:37 --> 42:44 [SPEAKER_01]: I know this is Muñoz and the team deciding this is how it best suits him, but he's the only guy in this bullpen that gets that kind of treatment.
42:45 --> 42:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Right, that he, he only throws the 9th inning and nowhere else.
42:48 --> 42:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, brash doesn't do that.
42:49 --> 42:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Bizarro doesn't do that.
42:51 --> 42:54 [SPEAKER_01]: Ferrar and Spire don't do that and certainly hoppy and Chris will don't do that.
42:54 --> 42:55 [SPEAKER_01]: Right.
42:55 --> 42:55 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
42:56 --> 42:57 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, that's another factor today's game.
42:57 --> 42:59 [SPEAKER_00]: We don't have to spend a bunch of time on it.
42:59 --> 43:01 [SPEAKER_00]: But Cooper, Chris, well, Oof, not as best outing.
43:01 --> 43:03 [SPEAKER_01]: The Mariners saw this 7th inning.
43:03 --> 43:12 [SPEAKER_01]: It's a 4-1 game and they said, okay, we can either go to brash here and go to Cooper, Chris, while and they tried to roll the dice with Cooper, Chris, well, and he got Sheldon didn't get it now.
43:12 --> 43:13 [SPEAKER_01]: That was a problem.
43:13 --> 43:14 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it won't.
43:14 --> 43:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Why that is a problem.
43:15 --> 43:18 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, let's we can get to that at the end because let's stick on the moonios thing.
43:18 --> 43:24 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, we've gone through two of the options to close and it's not going to be either the lefties or two valuable and other spots.
43:25 --> 43:51 [SPEAKER_00]: there's the Edward Bazardo potential to close but nope no I'm I'm gonna be honest you guys Edward Bazardo's been a very good reliever for the role he's been in if you look under the hood with Edward Bazardo and some of the profile that he presents it's not a closer profile man he's got a 212 ERA right now or an ERA about 210 to 220 like I weren't at end after today it might it might be to
43:53 --> 43:54 [SPEAKER_00]: whatever.
43:54 --> 43:55 [SPEAKER_00]: It's barely above two.
43:55 --> 43:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Barely above two.
43:58 --> 44:01 [SPEAKER_00]: Everything under the hood does not suggest that's where his ERA should be.
44:01 --> 44:04 [SPEAKER_00]: His expected ERA is almost 200 points higher.
44:04 --> 44:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Same thing with his expected FIP.
44:06 --> 44:13 [SPEAKER_00]: And then when you look at his baseball civ page, there's nothing in his profile that says, Oh, this guy should be pitching in high leverage.
44:13 --> 44:15 [SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't have a great strikeout rate.
44:15 --> 44:16 [SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't have a great ground ball rate.
44:16 --> 44:18 [SPEAKER_00]: He gets hit decently hard.
44:18 --> 44:20 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he doesn't get a bunch of swing and miss.
44:21 --> 44:22 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not a closer profile.
44:22 --> 44:24 [SPEAKER_00]: Edward Bazar no can't be closing games.
44:24 --> 44:26 [SPEAKER_00]: He's he's a good middle reliever.
44:26 --> 44:27 [SPEAKER_00]: He's not a leverage reliever.
44:28 --> 44:29 [SPEAKER_00]: I've kind of always believed that about him
44:31 --> 44:37 [SPEAKER_01]: If you cannot close games with a 20% strikeout rate and a ground ball rate, that's just 30%.
44:37 --> 44:38 [SPEAKER_01]: That's not going to work.
44:39 --> 44:44 [SPEAKER_00]: That's ground ball rate, by the way, to put it in context for people, 6% tile a major league baseball.
44:44 --> 44:45 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not good.
44:46 --> 44:46 [SPEAKER_01]: Not peripherally good.
44:47 --> 44:48 [SPEAKER_01]: And that leaves you with one option, Lionel.
44:48 --> 44:54 [SPEAKER_01]: It's map rash, which people are probably going to say is the number one favorite to replace Andre's Minuses Gloser.
44:55 --> 44:56 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know about you, Lyle.
44:56 --> 44:59 [SPEAKER_00]: I like Matt Brash pitching before the 9th inning and big spots.
44:59 --> 45:02 [SPEAKER_01]: I think that role best suits him and I think it helps the team win the most.
45:03 --> 45:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Because you got to have an opportunity to win in the 9th inning.
45:06 --> 45:12 [SPEAKER_01]: You need to have quality relievers before that as well, keeping the lead and Matt Brash has done great.
45:12 --> 45:24 [SPEAKER_01]: And his entire career, he's been a guy who's been proven that he could enter in the middle of innings and get his team out of jams and I like having that option available as opposed to just leaving Matt Brash to the 9th inning.
45:25 --> 45:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Matt Brash is a phenomenal pivot guy.
45:27 --> 45:28 [SPEAKER_00]: He's been that since he's become a reliever.
45:29 --> 45:35 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I don't want to lose that either, because again, then you're potentially losing games earlier than the 9Dening.
45:35 --> 45:38 [SPEAKER_00]: If you start to move guys out of the roles they're best suited in.
45:39 --> 45:49 [SPEAKER_00]: So because of that, if you're not going to use the lefties, you're not going to use Bizarreau and Brash is too pivotal in his own role, then that leaves you with essentially two options.
45:49 --> 45:52 [SPEAKER_00]: And honestly, deploying both would be in their best interest.
45:53 --> 45:57 [SPEAKER_00]: which is get more leverage arms at the deadline because you're gonna need them.
45:57 --> 46:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I think we've said that for months on end, we've said it at the start of the year that there were a leverage arm short at least.
46:02 --> 46:04 [SPEAKER_00]: We're saying it now undoubtedly.
46:05 --> 46:12 [SPEAKER_00]: And along with that, to the point you made throughout this episode, like scrub the whole defined role thing.
46:12 --> 46:17 [SPEAKER_00]: Go back to the Scott Service formula where it's, you don't have a defined closer.
46:17 --> 46:20 [SPEAKER_00]: You put guys in situations the best suits them.
46:21 --> 46:22 [SPEAKER_00]: That's what I would do.
46:22 --> 46:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
46:23 --> 46:23 [SPEAKER_00]: And guess what?
46:23 --> 46:29 [SPEAKER_00]: In that scenario, there will be games where brash will close because it'll sometimes work itself out that way.
46:29 --> 46:36 [SPEAKER_00]: But when you need him in the sixth inning, when there's two guys on and one out, and you're going to face the Orioles this week, right?
46:36 --> 46:43 [SPEAKER_00]: If they've got two on and one out, it'll one or two run game in the sixth or seventh inning, and you've got Gunner Henderson coming up, and you've got Peter Lanzo coming up.
46:44 --> 46:56 [SPEAKER_00]: That's where you want Matt Brash, because if you opt to let Brash be saved till the 9th inning and you put Cooper Chris while in there and he gives it up, there is no Brash in the 9th inning, because it's not a situation you're winning the game anymore.
46:57 --> 46:59 [SPEAKER_01]: No, I'm totally with you.
47:00 --> 47:02 [SPEAKER_01]: It needs to be match up based.
47:03 --> 47:10 [SPEAKER_01]: And if there's like push back from Andre's moonios, you can tell them like, look man, we're doing what is most comfortable for you.
47:11 --> 47:19 [SPEAKER_01]: You said pitching the ninth inning only makes the most is knowing when you're pitching, allows you to prepare to pitch in this spot, but you're not performing.
47:20 --> 47:26 [SPEAKER_01]: So you can't get the treatment of only pitching in the ninth inning if this is how you're gonna pitch because clearly this season it's not working out for you.
47:27 --> 47:31 [SPEAKER_01]: So we got to do what's best for the team, not just what's best for Andre's Munoz.
47:31 --> 47:37 [SPEAKER_01]: Unfortunately, if it worked out where Andre's Munoz threw like he through last season, he only pitched the ninth inning.
47:37 --> 47:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's kind of hard to argue it.
47:38 --> 47:48 [SPEAKER_01]: As much as I hate the strategy of it, if he puts up a one five ERA and allows what the two home runs he did last year and 12 total earned runs, which by the way, wow.
47:50 --> 47:58 [SPEAKER_01]: Andres Munoz has now already allowed more earned runs this year on June 7th and he allowed all of last year if he does that then yeah, you can't argue it.
47:58 --> 47:58 [SPEAKER_01]: That's like all right.
47:58 --> 47:59 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll just roll with it.
48:00 --> 48:16 [SPEAKER_01]: If he's not performing then it's like I'm sorry like this this just can't go This just come yeah all this comes around to the fact that it's not as simple as moving Andres Munoz out of his closer role because you don't have a closer replacement a great
48:18 --> 48:23 [SPEAKER_01]: another problem that pops up with this is the Mariners pitching down a reliever.
48:24 --> 48:38 [SPEAKER_01]: I think you know I Cooper Chris Wallace pitching in the seventh inning because the Mariners had to use lever germs on Saturday as well and they're already pitching a man down in the bullpen so they realize oh we might need a lever drum on Monday as well.
48:38 --> 49:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and too say in so many games in a row and what their strategy is with their starting rotation Hey, you want to build in days of rest for these guys in this long stretch of games all on the road Well, they're doing the opposite to their relievers Yeah, it is a downside to the six-man rotation and we're both much more on board for the six-man than the piggyback.
49:00 --> 49:00 [SPEAKER_00]: Don't get us wrong
49:01 --> 49:05 [SPEAKER_00]: But by still not committing to a five man, this is what happens.
49:06 --> 49:12 [SPEAKER_00]: You have a lot of games, not a lot of off days, all on the road, all in a row, you do have to save some lever germs.
49:12 --> 49:18 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm guessing brash wasn't fully available Sunday, which is why he probably didn't pitch.
49:18 --> 49:22 [SPEAKER_00]: They were probably trying to save him to be able to be used in Baltimore to start this week.
49:23 --> 49:26 [SPEAKER_00]: But because of that, yet to use somebody else to try to bridge it, and it didn't work.
49:27 --> 49:28 [SPEAKER_00]: You're a real reliever down, man.
49:29 --> 49:29 [SPEAKER_00]: Nope.
49:30 --> 49:33 [SPEAKER_01]: At some point, they're going to have to make decisions on all of these things.
49:33 --> 49:43 [SPEAKER_01]: And I hope sooner rather than later, because as the common saying goes, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting things to change.
49:43 --> 49:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, Andre Smuno is can't keep pitching like this the rest of the season, but should he be anchored to the 9th inning anymore, I don't think so.
49:52 --> 49:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's going to be a question.
49:53 --> 49:54 [SPEAKER_00]: They're going to have to work out here, man.
49:54 --> 49:58 [SPEAKER_00]: They really are, especially maybe as soon as on this road trip, because it's an important road trip.
49:58 --> 49:59 [SPEAKER_00]: And it's a road trip.
49:59 --> 50:00 [SPEAKER_00]: They can't just let go by the wayside.
50:01 --> 50:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's totally fair to say.
50:03 --> 50:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, let's hope they find a way to win a ball to more, man.
50:06 --> 50:10 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's hope they turn this around, because if they do, that's still winning three of their last four series.
50:10 --> 50:13 [SPEAKER_00]: That would be a nicer note to be able to pick yourself up on.
50:14 --> 50:15 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's hope they find a way to do it.
50:16 --> 50:19 [SPEAKER_00]: With that, that's just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Lairer Podcast.
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50:53 --> 50:56 [SPEAKER_00]: That's TJ, I'm Lyle, it's always with you guys for tuning in.
50:57 --> 50:57 [SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk to you soon.
51:35 --> 51:37 [UNKNOWN]: Thank you.