Episode 5: Mariners Trade For Kolten Wong, Analyzing FA OF Brandon Nimmo, Jacob deGrom Signs With The Rangers, And Trea Turner Goes to Philadelphia

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome into episode number five of the Marine Layer Podcast with TJ. Matthewson and Lyle Goldstein. On today's pod, the Mariners make a trade. They trade for Brewers second baseman Colton Long. Our free agent profile of the week is former Mets outfielder Brandon Nimo. When our meetings are underway, their signings galore to talk about Trey Turner to the Phillies, Jacob de Gram to the Rangers, and then we'll close out the show with speak your Mind. With that, Let's get it rolling, and we welcome you into the Marine Layer Podcast here on Tuesday, December sixth, and shit is going down in San Diego at the Winter meetings. Aaron Judge was a giant for all of two minutes this afternoon, Lyle. 00:00:54 Speaker 2: But ourson Judge is still a giant. 00:00:57 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. What a classic here on this Tuesday. Whenever you might be listening to this Aaron Judge might be a giant by now whenever you are listening to this podcast. But quite a thrill this afternoon when John Hayman tweeted out at around two twenty in the afternoon Pacific time that Arson Judge was a giant. Then follows it up and says, actually, Aaron Judge is a San Francisco Giant, and then two minutes after that says, oh, sorry, team didn't confirm. 00:01:29 Speaker 2: It's like, I mean, the Mariners world, especially on Twitter, has to be rejoicing a little bit because for how much John Hayman likes to trash this franchise, it almost feels like karma got back at him a little bit. 00:01:46 Speaker 1: And he was just getting flamed in his Oh oops, sorry they didn't they didn't confirm with me. 00:01:52 Speaker 2: And then, like the. 00:01:53 Speaker 1: Quote, tweets are like five times the retweets and the reply, I mean a true just and the sense of the matter. He was just getting absolutely shredded, and I was, I was enjoying it so much. Always check your sources, folks, always check your sources. 00:02:13 Speaker 2: So was I I mean, and it was very apparent that he was trying to tweet it out as fast as humanly possible to be first, because somehow before hitting send on that tweet, he somehow never looked to see that he spelled it Arson like Aaron's. 00:02:31 Speaker 1: That is true, as you know, that is something I would do. When you try you're typing too fast and your thumb just your it goes a little bit too far and hits the r It's tough out there, but that was really really entertaining to see, uh, to see this afternoon. It's not gonna be the last time. I think we'll get some some sort of fake breaking news of the sort, but we'll have to find out. I think the rumors that they're up to three hundred and sixty million with Judge, which is an incredible number to think about it out he deserves all the cash he gets. We'll keep monitoring that as we go along, but right now, Aaron Judge is still a free agent, so we'll not be talking about it on this episode. Let's get into the Mariners' subjects. On today's pod, the Mariners make a trade this week. They trade for Brewers second baseman Colton Wong in a vacuum. I really like this trade. The full trade goes as follows. The Mariners get Colton Wong and one point seventy five million dollars in cash, and then the Brewers get Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro. And I see this return that what the Mariners are giving up here to Milwaukee, and I was like, wow, I'm gonna lost their words that you fill in need with two players who had no room on your roster for twenty twenty three. 00:03:51 Speaker 2: I know you've been grieving all week about the loss of Abe Toro. All week. 00:03:56 Speaker 1: I forgot he was the least valuable player on the entire roster to have. If we look at wins above replacement, Abe Toro this year was last among every Mariners player who put on a Mariner's uniform and played in a game this year, dead last, negative point seven wins above replacement. I'm sure Abe's a nice guy, but man, I'm glad he's They don't need an excuse to put him on the roster this upcoming year, Thank goodness. 00:04:25 Speaker 2: God. Well, let's put it like this. If you're a Mariners fan and you're upset that this is what the team decided on for their middle infield need instead of going after one of the big four shortstops, sure, I think your feelings are warranted if you wanted to see the team spend big and free agency. But this trade itself alone, with no other surrounding factors, how can you be mad about it? Colden Wong is a three win player and a valuable second baseman, and in return they gave up two players that lost the team games last year. I mean, there's no way, shape or form that anybody can be unhappy about. Just the trade itself. It's a good trade. 00:05:04 Speaker 1: Like you said in a vacuum, this is a good trade. Now, once this trade was made, you knew that you weren't getting one of those short stops. Barring just some miracle, you weren't getting one of those short stops. And I know a favorite amongst Mariner fans was getting Trey Turner. Well, the Padres, we'll get to this later offered Trey Turner forty one more million dollars than the Phillies did, and he still signed in Philadelphia. So that tells you everything you need to know about Trey Turner wanting to come to the West Coast. And Jerry maybe sees that and gets that inkling from them as like, Okay, well we need to do something we can control, and we can control getting a good fit on our roster in Colton Wong, who is an absolute upgrade at second base. So like, just look at his hitting numbers from this year. It's coming off his age thirty two season, one of his best offensive seasons of his career, slash two fifty one three point thirty nine four thirty with a one to sixteen WRC plus two and a half fangrafts wins above RepA placement, a walk rate of nine percent, a seventeen percent strikeout rate, which is really good. In a career high fifteen home runs. He was able to slug the ball a lot, and I think that's an area where the Mariners didn't get anything from their second basement last year, especially with Adam Frazier a very soft hitting second basement, and there's a little bit more upside here. 00:06:19 Speaker 2: With Colton Wong, there's no doubt, and I think the plan, while Depoto hasn't outwardly said it yet, is to platoon Colton Wong and Dylan Moore because Colton Wong is phenomenal against right handed pitching. This past year, Colton Wong put up an eight forty five OPS against right handed pitching. He was great. And Dylan Moore is a guy that hits lefties really well. So you combine those two together and play to their strength, you could combine for five to five and a half wins at the second base position, and if a Mariners fan saw that. I don't think anybody's complaining. 00:06:56 Speaker 1: And that's like a dream scenario. And that's given the rest of the roster stays hell healthy and Dylan doesn't have to play somewhere else. I would imagine we're still going to see Demo in the outfield a little bit this upcoming season. But in the perfect world, you're right. You get a one thirty five WRC plus with Colton Wong versus righty's last year, Dylan Moore one thirty seven WRC plus versus lefties last year. That's, you know, an all star caliber second basement if you, you know, get it in a vacuum. Combine those two numbers. I like it a lot. In The defense can improve as well. Colton Wong coming off a poor defensive season, the worst one of his career, negative nine outs above average, negative seven defensive run saved. But you know, for his career he's sort of a hit and miss defender, So I don't know if that's really something that you have to be too worried about. He struggled with injuries like I had core. He was dealing with core injuries most of the year. He also had a calf injury in June, which could definitely limit his mobility at second base. 00:07:55 Speaker 2: That's what most people seem to talk about, as most people seem to credit Wong's down defensive season past year to injuries. He just wasn't fully healthy. He was playing hurt a lot of the year. If he's fully healthy in twenty twenty three, I think you'll see at the very least a league average defender and at best something much better than that, because most of his career he's been a really good defender at second base. 00:08:18 Speaker 1: Yeah, and to think how good he could be when he's healthy, I mean, we could just look at his first half and second half numbers at the plate. He had a one forty one w RC plus in the second half last year. Again, had that calf injury in June, but was healthy after that and had a one forty one WRC plus. That would have been been the second best mark on the Mariters last year if he carried that out over a full season. So you know, the enticement is there. And I think a lot of that maybe what Jerry noticed when he was looking at Colton Wong, and I think they were attempting to sign Colton Wong in the twenty twenty one offseason, but Colton Wong wanted this third season, which would have been this year, and they didn't do it, so he ended up going to Milwaukee instead. But he had a career high fly ball rate last year. The Brewers wanted him to hit the ball in the air more and hit for a little bit more power, and it really played off in a sorry paid off in a good way on the offensive end. 00:09:15 Speaker 2: On almost all fronts of this trade, it's a plus for the Mariners. The only thing is he only has one year left on his deal, so I know we're getting a little ahead of ourselves here, But you trade for Teoscar Hernandez, who has a year left on his contract, you trade for Colton Wong, who has a year left on his contract. They will have to go back to the drawing board at this time next year again, unless they extend one or two of these guys, which may happen, it may not. But for the twenty twenty three season alone, they're off to a good start. They've added two very productive, valuable offensive pieces to improve the lineup. So it's it's going to be exciting. 00:09:53 Speaker 1: I think the cost of this really it's not what you gave up, because, as we mentioned, abrah him to own Jesse Winker off the roster already net positive for the Mariners. The reports came out after the season that Jesse Winker wasn't a big clubhouse hit. It had worn thin. You could sort of see the frustration in Scott's press conferences with Jesse Winkers as the year rolled on with Jesse and it just never really seemed like it was going to work out here. And I credit Jerry for essentially admitting he was wrong on both Abe Toro and Jesse Winker. Abe Torr remember, and the Kendall Graveman trade is like, oh, We're so high on this guy. I really love his upside, his versatility at the plate, being a switch hitter, and then you just watch him. He's just so bad. Just did not produce at all. And the fact that Jerry is able to acknowledge he got it wrong and ship them both off to a fresh start in Milwaukee is good to see, thankfully, Jerry. But to the cost I was talking about low, I saw this floated around on Twitter, and I agree Opportunity Cost was probably the most post affected by this trade, because again, that meant you weren't going to get that big bat in the endfield, which could linger could not depends how this all works out. 00:11:13 Speaker 2: They're not going to see one of the big four short stops in a Mariner's uniform. That's almost guaranteed. But I'll tell you this one guy who's not out of the question yet, Brandon Neimo. That's gonna be our free agent profile this week as we transition into it. This is a guy I've been very high on for a long time. It's a guy I've really wanted the Mariners to circle, and we're going to highlight him this week. Because he is unsigned, there have been some rumors, light rumors over the last few weeks that the Mariners have checked in on him. I think he is a perfect perfect fit for this team. But I'll ask you, TJ, why do you feel the same way? Because we've talked about this. 00:11:51 Speaker 1: Mariners love to say how much they like guys controlling the zone and such, and that's exactly what Brandon Nimo does. His on base percentage is really good for his career, three sixty seven on base percentage this past season, sixteen home runs, one thirty seven WRC plus, and he's a leadoff hitter. They don't have a true leadoff hitter on this roster. Put Julio there. I would rather Julio hit second or third, preferably second, And I think Brandon Nimo would be the perfect guy to put in front of him. Not the biggest power guy in the world, but man, this guy walks a ton. Before this season, where he had a ten percent walk rate, he had a walk rate of over fourteen percent every season of his career. Every season fourteen percent is really good. So he lowers that to ten percent this past season. But he also has a career low strikeout rate as well, seventeen percent, which just shows you he's controlling the zone and a perfect guy you want to top your lineup. 00:12:49 Speaker 2: He walks a ton, and like you just said, you hit the nail right on the head. He's a table setter, he's on base. He can help Julio drive in runs. You mentioned the power. Yes, his home run totals have never been through the roof. That doesn't mean he has a lack of offensive production. In fact, it's very very far from it. You want to look at his ops plus over the last few years twenty eighteen, one, forty eight that's forty eight percent above league average twenty twenty in a shortened season, one forty five, that's forty five percent above league average, one thirty one in twenty twenty one, and then one thirty this past year in twenty twenty two. That is an offensive producer. In fact, his ops plus would have been the second highest on the team other than Julia. 00:13:37 Speaker 1: And another thing I didn't even realize Lyle is you know he he has over a full major league season had a four hundred on base percentage. You know how hard that is to do. He had a four h four on base percentage as a twenty five year old in twenty eighteen. That's that's not very easy to do. To have a four hundred on base percentage. That's, you know, an elite territory of the true profile of offensive player of reaching first base four oh four and twenty eighteen. I didn't realize that he had a four to oh one last year. I'llbeit, in just ninety two games in the COVID season, fifty five games had a four to four on base percentage. I just couldn't think of, you know, a guy who is a better fit both you know, in the lineup and in the outfield as well. He's a center fielder grades out about an average center fielder if you look at the different defensive metrics of defensive runs saved and outs above average. But he wouldn't even need to play center field. He would go out there and he'd probably play left field, which would give you a pretty good fielding outfield as well. 00:14:41 Speaker 2: Be a great fielding outfield. This past year he had a really good gear Defensively, he put up six outs above average. For the most part, he's been averaged to slightly above league average in his career, But like you said, he doesn't have to cover as much ground and can play left field. With Julio and center how could you not be signed up for that. The reason I like so much is because he seems like the most realistic of the star free agents that the Mariners could bring in. It never seemed like they wanted to give an eight nine year deal to one of these shortstops. It feels could give or eleven. It feels like you could give Nemo a five year deal for around one hundred to one hundred and five million dollars and he'd be open to it. 00:15:25 Speaker 1: And five year deal I think would would be great because if we're talking about these eleven year contracts, like Trey Turner will be making twenty seven million dollars when he's forty and Bryce Harper, I think will his contract will have expired the year before. But like, that's the kind of example here. But you don't have to pay Brandon Nemo until he's forty years old. I think that's the big plus here. And in terms of AAV, it's not going to be much more than twenty million dollars for a Brandon Nemo. You know, it could be twenty two to twenty three, but it's not nothing really out of this world, nothing this team can't afford for the most part. So when you combine the five year deal with the you know, low ish AAV with the quality fit, I just don't see how you don't give Brandon Nimo your best offer. He's also a West Coast Ish guy. He's from Cheyenne, Wyoming, which I didn't know they produced major League Baseball players. I wrote down this note he is one of only twenty five players ever from the state of Wyoming to play Major League baseball. That was an interesting nugget. Was a first round pick out of high school in Wyoming. I didn't I didn't dive in that much, but I could imagine he is one of maybe a handful. I probably you could probably count on one hand how many first round picks out of that state there have been. But it's a cool part to see, so we would hope maybe he wants to come back to the Great Frontier of the West. 00:16:46 Speaker 2: So the story with him is he had to play a lot of travel ball in high school because obviously Wyoming, the weather's terrible, especially early in the spring, so you have to find other solutions. So he was on the travel circuit a lot of his high school career. I remember that because when Jared Kellnick got drafted by the Mets back in twenty eighteen, they were actually comparing him in Nemo because Nimo was already met by that. Kelnick had to do the same thing growing up in Wisconsin, where he couldn't really play a lot of baseball early in the year, a lot of the year as a hole in Wisconsin because the weather was so bad, so he was on the travel circuit. So I always remember those two getting compared because they were both first round draft picks from bad weather States. Now, let me sell you this with Brandon Nemo in twenty twenty two, he had a higher war than Trey Turner, Rafael Devers, Vlatdie, Alex Bregman, just to name a few. If that doesn't sell you, I can't help you. 00:17:40 Speaker 1: Now. The only caveat here is that Jery Dipoto came out this week and said they're looking for a right handed bat, which I'm like, a right handed outfield bat. Brandon Neimo is not right handed. He is not. However, if we're talking about balance one thirty seven WRC plus against right hand pitchers, one thirty WRC plus against lefties, Jerry, don't let the handiness fool you. 00:18:10 Speaker 2: He can do both. Go get him. I agree, I'm all for it. I'm with you, I think do I think Jerry Depoto is lying with that. 00:18:20 Speaker 1: No. 00:18:21 Speaker 2: I also don't think he wants to get everybody's hopes up saying oh yeah, we're gonna sign Brandon Nemo, because, like we always talk about, the Mariners are pretty good about not leaking their plans and ideas. They don't like, they don't like stuff to get out, So if they signed Nemo would probably be out of the blue and we just see it one day and Passing would basically bomb us with a tweet. I think it's still possible they could bring bring a Nemo. 00:18:46 Speaker 1: Yeah, and John Morosi was like sort of leaking us information on Twitter that the Mariners had checked in on Neimo. Again, they check in on a lot of guys. I'm sure I would still be flabbergasted if Brandon Neimo is not near the top of their list. They have all these numbers too. They can look at his production versus rightis and lefties. They know he's a good fielder, they know he would fit this roster, they know he would be a good leadoff hitter here, and they know he would probably be comfortable coming back to the West Coast. That's all I hope Jerry is looking at right. I don't think you can back yourself into a corner here looking for a right hand hitter, especially when you have two other righty's out in the outfield. 00:19:24 Speaker 2: I agree, And especially when you look at somebody like Brian Reynolds, who's on the trade block, who we might get to later here in the show. That would cost a haul of prospects. Brandon Neimo, you just have to sign them I mean, the fit seems so obvious. Whether it happens or not, I can't promise you, but the ball's in their court with this one. 00:19:45 Speaker 1: All I have to say is, please, don't go cheap. Don't don't don't limit your don't limit to yourself to a number. Right. And if someone blows Brandon Nimo away with an offer of thirty million dollars a year, oh well, but if it's an affordable price, I think you have to do it. You absolutely have to do it. Let's go a little more national, and let's look around baseball with our mob. Wrap around the news coming out earlier this week, which pained me. Really just paid me to look at this. Jacob de Gram is a Texas Ranger. Let me repeat myself, Jacob de Gram is a Texas Ranger. Lyle. 00:20:34 Speaker 2: Now the positive, if you're looking at this from a Mariner's perspective, they don't have to play the Rangers as many times this year because the schedule's changing. Now you play everybody. That is the one positive. 00:20:48 Speaker 1: I'm waiting for the butt, but I'm not happy he's a Texas Ranger. Yeah, there we go, there we go. De Gram signs a five year one hundred and eighty six million million dollar contract with the Rangers earlier this week. He will get thirty million dollars this season, forty million in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five, thirty eight million and twenty six thirty seven million in twenty seven. Deal also contains a conditional option based on factors of health and success, and as a full no trade clause. So the Rangers, in the blink of an eye, after ahead of the A's but still having a very terrible pitching staff by Al West standards, now have the best pitcher in the division, which just just frustrates me that the that they're able to spend this money. They signed Corey Seeger and Marcus Simeon last offseason and then they lie, excuse me, they land the biggest fish in the pond this offseason with Jacob de Gram. Question is is he going to be healthy? 00:21:54 Speaker 2: That's been the out the last couple of seasons. He has not been healthy. Now, his injury history before over the last couple of years has been pretty good, but all of a sudden, as he's aged a little bit, it's been up and down. Now, if he's healthy, that's gonna be deadly for the Rangers, and to be honest, their pitching staff all of a sudden is shaping up. Okay, I'm not gonna sit here and say it's elite, but between de Gram, Martin Perez who had a good year, John Gray who they signed last year, and now Andrew Heeney after landing him today, who's fine. I mean he's a four to five starter. It's better than it was, that's for sure. 00:22:29 Speaker 1: Yeah, depth wise, I think is the biggest thing we were looking at with their pitching staff. De Grom this past season a three to eighty orra and sixty four and a third innings for God has strikeout to walk number slyile one hundred and two strikeouts to eight walks. It's pretty good. He averaged ninety nine miles an hour on his fastball, which is more than most relievers average on their fastball. When I always watch Jacob deGrom pitch, I wonder if he's ever going to dial it back a little bit to try and preserve his arm health a little bit, because it seems like as his velocity is jumped by the way his he has gone up every single season since I think twenty sixteen. The injuries have piled up as well, so I wonder if he'll tamper that down a little bit to try and keep himself healthier. But man, when this guy is on, I mean you're talking one hundred, one hundred and one through six innings on his fastball and a slider that is nearly unhittable. He has a change up and a curveball too that he doesn't even use because he doesn't need to. He doesn't need to. That's just how good he is. And that's what just pains me, the fact that the Marinders are going to have to face him in their own division this year. 00:23:31 Speaker 2: Do you think any part of Jacob de Gram chose the Rangers because he wanted to keep a lot more of his money than he was keeping, And what I mean by that is there's no state income tax in Texas, where in New York you obviously have to fork over a lot of your yearly salary. Do you think that played a factor at all? 00:23:48 Speaker 1: Yes, I think it plays a factor with a lot of guys. That's probably why Corey Seeker Marcus Simon were so enticed to go there, and also the Rangers are just aggressive. Do you think anyone else gave Jacob de Grom five guaranteed years. I don't think so, probably not. It's unlikely. I mean, I guess we'll get to the Mets in a minute, so I'll hold off any Mets talk. But yeah, I would think four years. 00:24:11 Speaker 2: Is more in the range of what de Grom mostly heard and was being offered. Maybe the Rangers went that extra year and were able to land them as a result, so that would make sense. The only thing about the Rangers is I still don't think this team is even quite a five hundred team after adding to Grom. This was a sixty eight win team last year. If they add to Grom and he's healthy all year and puts up a six or seven war, that's still a seventy five to seventy six win team. I think they still need another couple of real moves to get themselves over the hill here, because they do not have a great farm, and so far a lot of their young prospects haven't been all that great. 00:24:49 Speaker 1: Yeah, they brought Josh Young up. He was okay. Actually he's pretty bad at the plate this year in his larger sample size in the big leagues. Nathaniel Lowe is really turned into a good first baseman. Jonah Hims turned into a really good catcher as well. But man, outside of like a Doley Scarcia on that outfield, there's there's not much on that roster and their bullpen too. I mean, they have the clerk at the back, but otherwise there's it's pretty thin. Right, So there's a lot of star power on this Rangers team. They're gonna draw well, they're gonna make a ton of money off of him, and I don't think they're out of the rest of free agency. I really think they could go sign another big name if they wanted to. They've shown that they are willing to pay these guys. Just to note, their payroll this year is the highest it has ever been in franchise history. But it doesn't seem like they'll slow down with this signing. They'll be fun to watch, doesn't necessarily mean they'll be good. 00:25:45 Speaker 2: Yeah, they're probably not done, and they kind of can't be done if they're serious about competing, because this roster has more needs that they need to fill out. 00:25:53 Speaker 1: Well. 00:25:53 Speaker 2: From the best picture on the market being signed to what's been so far the best hitter on the market to sign, Great Turner signs an eleven year, three hundred million dollars deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, signed through his age forty season and no opt outs. Man did he get paid, TJ. 00:26:14 Speaker 1: He did a lot of This makes sense right. His wife is from New Jersey, close to Philly. Trey's from Florida. The Phillies train in Florida in the offseason. In the spring, the two of them live in Florida. The Padres offered him I don't remember if it was eleven years, but they offered him three hundred and forty one million dollars guaranteed forty one million more dollars guaranteed in San Diego than Philadelphia. And Trey Turner still chose Philly because it was on the East coast. So I followed that up, not Lyle, with a note that says so much for that pipe dream of the Mariners signing Trey Turner, because after seeing those numbers, it was apparent he never was going to go to the West coast. I mean, what would the Padres have to offer Trey Turner to go there? Four hundred maybe five four hundred, right, you would think, I. 00:27:05 Speaker 2: Would think so. I mean, if he's turning down that much money just to go back to the East Coast. He must really want to be there. 00:27:13 Speaker 1: He also reunites with Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long, who was with the Nationals from twenty eighteen to twenty twenty one. Really helped Trey, and Trey said this become a better hitter at the big league level, credits a lot of his growth to Kevin Long. And Kevin Long is the current Phillies hitting coach. So I'm happy for Trey gets his money. He gets eleven years. When I saw that number, I just thought, I sat here and I thought, that is Dave Dombrowski. That is peak Dave Dombrowski. I mean, he's just done this multiple times now. He did it with the Marlins, not to this extent really back in the early two thousands because they didn't really have the financial means. Both the Tigers in the early twenty tens, and he built up this old, expensive win now roster. They get old, they start stinking, He gets fired, goes to Boston, does the same thing, an older roster but expensive. They win a World Series, then start sucking in. Debrowski leaves. Now he goes to Philadelphia, signs Bryce was Did he sign Bryce Harper? I think he did. 00:28:25 Speaker 2: I believe think so. 00:28:27 Speaker 1: It would makes sense if he did. Regardless, you could just look at the sightings last offseason, right Nick Nick Costiano's old, right, old expensive bat. Now Trey Turner, and he'll probably you know, he's gonna have to extend Aaron Nola again eventually. And Zach Wheeler they've already signed to an expense expensive contract. And now you have Trey Turner for eleven years eleven I don't think anyone else was going to offer Trey Turner eleven years. That that's insane. Good for Trey man that that's a lot of a lot of years. 00:29:01 Speaker 2: Let's retract. Dombrowski did not sign Harper because he came on in twenty twenty one. But even still, it's still a very Dombrowski type move. 00:29:09 Speaker 1: He probably he would have signed off on that deal. 00:29:12 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, one hundred percent. They're gonna have to win a World Series within the first four to five years of this Trake Turner contract. I would imagine, because these contracts between Harper between Turner, it's gonna build up to the point where they're not gonna have a lot of roster flexibility, so they better win when all these guys are in their prime, because to sign this guy through his age forty season, to be paying him twenty seven million dollars at age forty, you better capitalize on the front half of that contract. 00:29:42 Speaker 1: I can't wait for me and you to like sit there and look at this Phillies roster in twenty thirty one, let's say, and we see old Bryce and old Tray still making about twenty seven million dollars each, probably both neither good health, etc. And it's like, Wow, remember when they signed those contracts. That's crazy. So and it's it's good for good for Trey though, I'm happy for him. 00:30:08 Speaker 2: And by that time, Julio will be what twenty nine and still in his prime. 00:30:13 Speaker 1: And still in the middle of his contract. 00:30:15 Speaker 2: Yeah, exact centially. And that's the thing. Jerry does not like giving out contracts like this. So when I saw what Trey Turner got, that only confirmed. Yeah, the Mariners are not getting any of these shortstops, because even if all four of these guys don't get eleven years, it's not going to be that far off. And I don't think Depoto wants to pay nine ten years to any of these guys. He saw what happened when he took this job and had to inherit. The Robinson Cano contract was a nightmare. 00:30:42 Speaker 1: They just paid that off. 00:30:44 Speaker 2: Just they got this year. 00:30:47 Speaker 1: They sent they sent the final three million dollars to Mets. 00:30:50 Speaker 2: Yeah, shout out our TikTok account. If you want to hear more about that, you can go over there. 00:30:55 Speaker 1: Yeah at Marine Layer pot on TikTok. Make a bunch of short form content. I'm sure this will be there in some way or form. Yeah, I didn't think while of all the things to be popular, some you know, kind of irrelevant news now of Robinson Cano's contract getting paid off by the Mariners would be a big hit on this day where Aaron Judge is a giant for two minutes. But what do I know? Right? Yeah, so Trey Turner is now a Philadelphia Philly for the next eleven seasons. Man, eleven years from now, I'm going to be thirty five years old. No, I don't want to think about that. Another signing taking place this week, just a matter of hours after Jacob de gram signs with the Texas Rangers justin Verlander. As we had mentioned earlier, sign was the Mets plan B option for Jacob de Gram, and Steve Cohen follows through on his promise. Justin Verlander signs with the Mets a two year, eighty six point six million dollars deal on Monday. An average of forty three million dollars a year ties him with Max Schuzer for the highest annual average contract of all time. Big money in Queen's. 00:32:13 Speaker 2: Huge money. And we talked about this a couple weeks ago. We said, I don't really want to pay a forty year old forty three million dollars. Well, Steve Cohen doesn't really seem to give two shits what we have to say, because he's going to pay Justin Verlander forty three million dollars for the next two years. Now. To be fair, it's not three years like we originally thought it was going to be, because that's what Verlander was asking for. But the Mets needed a replacement for deGrom. They got one, and a guy who just won the cyon. 00:32:43 Speaker 1: And joins his former Tigers teammate, Max Schuzer. I almost forgot about this aspect, but he does indeed join Scherzer, former Tigers teammates from twenty ten to twenty fourteen, two of the oldest and most expensive starting pitchers in baseball. Schurzer will be thirty nine in July, Justin Verlander will be forty in February. And I'm sitting here thinking about this contract and you have a forty year old making forty three and a thirty nine year old making forty three. I'm like, what is ever the age and the value of the contract ever been so close than these two. I mean, at this old age, it just kind of crazy to think about. 00:33:23 Speaker 2: It is and talk about when now because this is an older roster to say the least, especially in their rotations. So similar to the Phillies, the Mets need to capitalize on these contracts now because they're not going to be around forever. Can you help me understand something though with this Mets process. Help me walk through this, because for the last couple of days, I just can't understand it for the life of me. We just talked about de Gram, right. De Gram's contract is six million dollars less per year than Verlanders. The Mets said no to paying Jacob de Gram until he's thirty nine years old. That's when his contract ends. But they're Okay, paying Justin Burlanders starting at age forty, How does that make any sense? 00:34:11 Speaker 1: I couldn't tell you. I don't know. Maybe that we don't know because this stuff didn't come out. Maybe the Mets did offer him five years. It's entirely possible they did. And Jacob de Gram's like, well, there's no state tax in Texas, so I get more of my money, and that's why I go. It could have been that simple. It really could have. Maybe Jacob de Grim was tired of living in Queens. Maybe I don't know, but in a vacuum, the way you think about it, it does make no sense. Justin Verlander has come off two of the best old pitcher seasons of all time, winning the Cy Young at thirty seven and thirty nine, with two years off in between, essentially for Tommy john Surgery made one start in twenty twenty and then missed the entire twenty twenty one season, comes back and wins the cy Young again in twenty twenty two. But Father Time is undefeated, especially for pitchers. Johnson defied it for a while, but he eventually fell off, and Justin Verlander's thrown over three thousand innings in his career. Eventually, it's got to catch up to him. And if he falls off during this contract, I mean, you're talking about a forty three million dollar dead weight in your rotation. That's a lot. 00:35:20 Speaker 2: It's a gamble, there's no doubt. It's a gamble. Really quick here, before we wrap this up, you mentioned is one start he made in twenty twenty before he got hurt. Do you remember that start? 00:35:29 Speaker 1: Oh? I do. I was sitting in front of a TV watching it. Kyle Lewis took him deep in the second inning. 00:35:34 Speaker 2: Took him onto the train tracks. 00:35:36 Speaker 1: Yeah, he's Caul Lewis. Hope, he's hope. He's soaking up the sunshine while we're freezing up here in the Northwest. 00:35:43 Speaker 2: I agree. Final topic here on the MLB wrap around. Not an official move, but it got leaked this week that Pirates star outfielder Brian Reynolds has requested a trade out of Pittsburgh. This is something you often don't see in Major League Baseball. Essentially, Brian Reynolds is out here pulling an NBA move. He's trying to have all the power, all the control and say get me off this franchise or get me away from this franchise, get me off this team. I want to play for a contender. So do we think the Pirates give into this. 00:36:19 Speaker 1: Well, they're losing leverage at this point. It might not be this offseason, but he's gonna eventually get traded. It just seems like there's riding on the wall. I mean, we how much we spent some time last week talking of attraction the Pirates for not signing any free agents, right, Carlos Santana being their most expensive signing since the twenty sixteen offseason. So of course, you know, Brian Reynolds probably sits down at the table, is like mapping it out with them. It's like, yeah, if you guys are serious about this, I'm probably expecting seven eight years, around twenty to twenty five million dollars a year. And the Pirates front office sits there with their jaws on the floor, like, h that's a lot of money. And he's like, that's not that much, and they're like, we can't do that. All right, I'm out. You know, I think there are some things baseball could take away from the NBA, and I think players being petty and demanding trades would be one of them. So hat tip to you, Brian Reynolds and Jerry. I wouldn't be opposed to making this deal. It could be expensive, but it would work out quite well. 00:37:23 Speaker 2: What are you willing to give up for him? If the Mariners were to trade for him? Because they've been rumored and linked to Brian Reynolds since last year. I'm sure they're interested in this. So what would you give up? 00:37:33 Speaker 1: So here's some background on Reynolds this year two sixty two, three forty five, four sixty one one five WRC plus. Oh, we have some breaking news here, dog, right here on the show. Mitch Channicker, Oh my goodness, and the San Francisco Giants three years, forty three and a half million dollars. Say that one more time, Mitch Chaneger and the San Francisco Giants have agreed to a contract three years, forty three and a half million dollars. So I think we have a replacement subject here for Brian Reynolds. Good for Mitch. I'm happy for Mitch. I'm very happy for Mitch. Forty three and a half million dollars for three seasons. Yeah, stays on the West Coast, went to cal Poly. Happy for Mitch. That's great, yeah, glad. I'm glad he got his money he did. 00:38:24 Speaker 2: I mean, he deserves it, and the Mariners probably didn't want to go three years. If I had to guests, I would assume they were trying to resign him within within what you'd call like a two year contract or somewhere around those limits, I guess. But yeah, I mean, if San Francisco is willing to give him more and he's got a chance to go back to California and he's gonna make his money after waiting a long time to hit free agency, yeah, you're definitely happy for him. I just wonder how the players in the Mariners clubhouse are going to react, because you remember some of those quotes at the end of the year, they said, I can't even imagine this team without Mitch Haniger. Now we had started to imagine it, but it's it may take a toll on some of these players here. 00:39:07 Speaker 1: It might, But again, guys understand, this is a business, and guys want Mitch to get paid. They're probably very happy he finally got that pay day. I mean, this is a guy who's been injured to shit for his career, and you know they want him to be they want him to be financially well off. I mean, every time he's going into arbitration while he's been with the Mariners, he's been getting hurt. So it just tanks his value, and we hurt it on you know, through many sources. When the season was coming to an end. It's like Mitch wants to test the market, he wants to get that payday, and finally he has that wealth that'll set him up for the rest of his life. Forty three and a half million dollars to play for a really good franchise in the San Francisco Giants. So I'm happy for him. Now here's the question I have, How does this affect Judge because we see them signing a right handed outfielder, not the right handed outfielder we expected with this trade. 00:40:08 Speaker 2: So I don't know. 00:40:09 Speaker 1: That's just a question I have here after seeing that live. 00:40:12 Speaker 2: I don't think it affects Aaron Judge. One bet the Giants need multiple outfielders. Mitch handers can play left field. If if they signed Judge, Judge will play right, Mitch can play left. They'll both get to DH some days. They'll make it work. I'm sure Judge was not going to be the only move the Giants made if they even sign them, so I'm sure they always had secondary options and additional plans to their offseason blueprint. 00:40:38 Speaker 1: Yeah, happy for Mitch. He's gonna look great in that uniform. I'll say, hey, look great, and he will. Another note to this which I can tie in, I think the Giants are one of the teams that would have been interested in Brian Reynolds. I assume if they're chasing after Judge, this takes them out of the Brian Reynolds sweepstakes. 00:40:58 Speaker 2: It probably does. The Ta Tas that I've seen are interested or the Mariners, the Blue Jays, and the Yankees. So those will be three teams to circle and keep an eye on. The blue Jays especially, are looking for a center fielder. So if we want to tie this back to Brian Reynolds for just a minute to wrap up on him, Brian Reynolds should probably not be playing center field for whatever team he goes to. If he goes to the Blue Jays, he might because they're looking for a center fielder. He does not grade all that well defensively, at least in defensive run saved. It's funny enough outs above average have actually favored him in some years, but I think he's better suited in a corner outfield spot, which if the Mariner's trade for him would be perfect because he'd go to left field, just for some perspective. 00:41:38 Speaker 1: Defensive run saved had him at negative fourteen this season. Jesse Winker was at negative sixteen if we're talking comparing two different positions, but that they graded a you know, not great quality for Brian Reynolds, and he wouldn't have to play centerfield in Seattle. He would be in left which I think would suit him perfectly and give the Mariners a very good athletic outfield. And Reynolds as a switch hitter, that's great. I mean, you get the right and left handed hitter. What you know, Jerry was talking about wanting a riety well at both with Brian Reynolds, and the upside for Brian Reynolds is really good. So what he did last year three zero two, three ninety five one WRC plus as a center fielder, He'll take it. And that's about as values as valuable as it gets in Major League Baseball. 00:42:26 Speaker 2: We're gonna have to dive into these defensive metrics at some point one day because you look at his twenty twenty one season, which was his career year, he had negative five defensive runs saved but ten outs above average. That's a drastic difference. Obviously they're measured differently. But one of these days, maybe we'll have to have a saber metrics session on this podcast or something and just dive into it and do some reading or something, because that is that is night and day when looking at a player's metrics, And. 00:42:56 Speaker 1: It's kind of hard to grade defense really because defense this is not like I wouldn't say, it's like, it's not like grading defense in the NBA, where every minute you're on the floor that you're on defense, you're playing defense essentially, but in baseball, like you're only playing defense as the ball is hit at you, and the ball's only hit at you maybe two to three times maybe a game, depending on where you play, especially in the outfield. You could see one ball, you could see fifteen balls. You know, it's not set in stone. So that's why it's sort of inconsistent because it's not a great sample size to look at. But I guess that would be something we could look at. I like that idea. We'll have to pocket that one for a slow news week. This is not a slow news week. So we got not a lot to talk. 00:43:44 Speaker 2: Yeah, not at all. I mean, so, just to look at the Mariners outlook here as we quickly wrap this up, they are now going to need an outfielder. There's no question about it. They needed one before, but now that Mitch is a giant. Jerry was talking about the right handed bat, Well, you think about the free agent outfielder's left Kenfordo lefty, Nemo lefty, Brian Reynolds if you trade for him, switch hitter. I don't really know what right handed outfielders they'd be looking for. If you want to throw out some other names like Joey Gallo lefty, it's a lot of left handed hitting outfielders. I get why they want to righty, because they're trying to offset Jared Kalmick, assuming he's going to get some real playing time in left field, try to get him against more righty's. But a lot of lefties out there. 00:44:26 Speaker 1: But the thing is, when you think about Jerry's like thinking here, all the big bats in the Mariners lineup currently are right handed. Julia righty, ta Oscar righty Suarez, righty like those are your big boppers ty righty right though, like Dylan moore power right hand hitter, Sam Haggerty's good side right hand hitter, like it's it's pretty right hand heavy. So it was a little puzzling to see Jerry say that we won't know until they officially make their move on what they want to add on. What true? How you know, Stark that line in the sand is before we move on, Lyle, because we got interrupted by the trade and I thought you were going to bring up a really good point. What does a trade package for Brian Reynolds look like? 00:45:17 Speaker 2: I would guess if it's not involving major league players, I would guess it probably starts with Emerson Hancock. You probably have to include Bryce Miller. I don't think you'll have to include Harry Ford in there, which is the Mariner's top prospect. But I think you'd have to include at least two pitchers, and you'd have to throw in some type of position player, probably an outfielder, whether it's a Zach de Lowe, Chikaid Marlow, somebody like that. 00:45:49 Speaker 1: What's that Evan White? 00:45:52 Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, we. 00:45:54 Speaker 1: Don't even know if he's healthy, but hey, here's Evan White, still young, still Spry, still hasn't played that much. Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. If we're going off the major league roster, you'd have to assume Jared Kelnick is going back to Pittsburgh, and that might be the guy they you know, Steadfast asked for in this deal. And maybe Jerry says no because he wants to keep JK, which I respect. But in the end, it's like, well, Brian Reynolds is an All Star, a switch hitter and would make your club considerably better for this year, so that might be worth giving up Kellenick. So it would probably be you know, Kellnick, Hancock and maybe a lower level prospect. I think that would do it, because you're giving a major leaguer, a top pitching prospect and then someone else. I think that'll be enough to get Brian Reynolds. And with those who don't I'm thinking about this, I just don't think the price for him is going to be as high. I really don't. 00:46:46 Speaker 2: The only thing to think about, and for those who don't know, Brian Reynolds has three years of club control. That is a lot of team control for a player and a guy that you get to keep on your team for three competitive seasons if you're the Mariners. So that that's why the Pirates are probably asking for a king's ransom back. But I'm with you. I don't think any team's really going to give them what they are asking for. I mean, when the Mariner's inquired about him last year, the Pirates told him, yeah, it starts with Julio, and the Mariners hung up the phone. So I don't think it's going to be anything like that. I think some package of something along the lines like Hancock, Miller and a position player can get it done. But we'll have to see. 00:47:26 Speaker 1: Could you imagine Mariner's Twitter right now if they did that trade? 00:47:30 Speaker 2: Oh my god? I mean I would have been livid back then. 00:47:36 Speaker 1: Yeah, me too. 00:47:38 Speaker 2: Oh man, Yeah, I'm good. 00:47:41 Speaker 1: Something to think about. Thank goodness, Jerry didn't do it. Thank you, Jerry. Okay, and I think that'll do it for us. On the MOLB wrap round, let's speak our minds. Speak your mind spot. That would be unwise. 00:47:58 Speaker 2: What is necessary is never unwise. 00:48:02 Speaker 1: Okay, Lyle, I'm gonna lead with you first. What is on your mind this week? 00:48:07 Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep my trend and theme going here because it feels like every week on Speak Your Mind, I've done something along the lines of movies or TV shows or music. I'm gonna stick on music again this week. A couple of weeks ago I talked about I was excited for Roddy Rich's album to drop, and I liked it. There was a few good songs on there. But this past Friday, metro Boomin, Hello, my goodness, he dropped a new album. It was awesome, like multiple multiple hit songs on the album. I've listened through multiple times already. My couple of favorite songs on the album, which are probably Superhero and rain Drops. Those are the names of the songs. They've been on repeat on my phone for days since they've dropped. There was a kind of a long drought there. I feel like throughout the summer where we didn't have a whole lot of new music. We're getting a ton of it now. And metro Boomin's album was so good. 00:49:02 Speaker 1: It's been a while since we've gotten a drop of really good, like pure trap, like trap music, and man, he knocked this out of the park. I don't want to go as far as saying like album of the Year, but listening I don't remember the last album I listened through from song one to song I don't fifteen all the way through. I'm like, that is masterful. That really was great. I mean the transition from song to song is just, oh, it's so good. Then the samples used in there. I mean you look at this first song. He it featured John Legend, but he had samples from Have you watched The Boys on Amazon prime Lyle? 00:49:46 Speaker 2: I have not? 00:49:48 Speaker 1: Okay, do you know who Homelander is? 00:49:51 Speaker 2: I've heard of it. 00:49:52 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so homelanders like the main superhero slash bad guy in The Boys. He samples Homelander in that his speed at the end. That's what that was. And I realized that until I went back and I looked. I was like, oh, that's insane. And I mean, you talk about the transition from like song one, like I could go through the first probably nine songs and you could think they're all one song and the beat switch and all and oh man, he knocked it out of the park. Probably my favorite album of the year, and it's been out for what four day? Five days? I mean, straight Gas, thank you, Metro Woman, thank you, we needed. 00:50:30 Speaker 2: I'm with you. I'm with you. Okay, so two my two favorite songs on the album are, like I said, Superhero and rain Drops. Do you have favorites yet? 00:50:41 Speaker 1: Man, I don't think I could say I have favorites yet. I'm gonna need to listen through it some more. I really lyle just love the first probably like I like the whole the first I can count here one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine to ten, like until the Weekend, like that stretch of songs. I don't know if I could pick a favorite from those because I like it. Really. It's really just so intertwined and good, all of them, and they're all different in you know, different ways, like from from Travis who Travis Scott, who haven't heard from him forever. He's featured I think four times on this album. You know, you go from Future to Travis Scott, back to twenty one Savage, to Young Thug to Don Tolliver to the Weekend and twenty one Savage. I mean, oh, like for trap music, it was phenomenal. It's such a good mix. 00:51:45 Speaker 2: Let me finish it up with this before we turn it to you. I would bet significant money that there's gonna be at least a handful of major leaguers. They use Superhero as their walk up song this year. Like the beat for it, the way it drops, it just feels like your hip hop walk up song in in baseball for any player that's trying to hype themselves up before in at bat. We'll see if a Mariner uses it. We'll see who. We'll see if anybody uses it. But my money's on that there's gonna be at least a few guys that use it as a walk up song. That's a good bet. 00:52:17 Speaker 1: That's a good bet. 00:52:18 Speaker 2: Man. 00:52:18 Speaker 1: If I need to get hyped up to in my car, that's that's what I'm gonna play. It's really phenomenal. Okay, now, mine, we're gonna be in sports. It's not gonna be baseball. I am pretty sick and I'm gonna use what I wrote down. Sick and fucking tired of the Heisman Trophy voters and the process. My God, yesterday the finalists renounced of the Heisman Trophy. Caleb Williams from usc Max dug In from TCU, CJ. Stroud from Ohio State, and Stetson Bennett from Georgia. I don't think you need to be a college football expert. To look at this list and say one guy does not belong here. I have no personal quarrels with Stetson Bennett. He won a national championship next year. He has played very well this year. He has twenty touchdowns this year, seven rushings, twenty seven total. And you watch a Georgia game, are you looking at Stetson Bennett as the guy who's like he deserves to be one of the four finalists for the most Outstanding Player in College football? 00:53:38 Speaker 2: You are you telling me that, no, it's Jalen Carter. 00:53:42 Speaker 1: Right. Is Stetson Bennett even number one on his own offense for Heisman? Like? Would you not say Brock Bauers or Darnel Washington the two tight ends are more valuable or his offensive line. 00:53:55 Speaker 2: Probably. 00:53:56 Speaker 1: I have a list for you, Lyle. I told you I was gonna do this, and I did it. I'm gonna read you the name of every single quarterback and the Power five who had more total touchdowns than stets and Bennett this season. Ready, it's a long list, Oh boy, Caleb Williams, Drake May, Bonick, c J. Stroud, Sam Hartman, Dorian Thompson, Robinson, Max Duggan, Jaron Hall, Will Rogers, Michael Pennix, Hendon Hooker, Cam Rising, Riley, Leonard, Bryce Young, Jordan, Travis Dyll and Gailor Gabriel, Jaden, Delora, dj Uyung, Galile kJ Jefferson, cam Ward. Those are only the power five quarterbacks. Those are twenty one of those guys. There are fifteen more group of five quarterbacks who had more total touchdowns and stets and Bennet did. That's thirty six more quarterbacks just on touchdowns who are better than stets and Bennet this year, let alone, actually more outstanding than Stetson Bennett. 00:54:51 Speaker 2: I mean, what are we doing. He's not gonna win, obviously, but he should not be in New York. So let me ask you. Would you replace them with Hendon Hooker, Michael Pennix. 00:55:04 Speaker 1: Probably Hendon Hooker, but you know, I think both have a very good argument. I was thinking Hendon Hooker, Bo Nix or Michael Pennox, But I think those are pretty three, pretty easy choices. Or I mean, Drake May, Drake May, We'll do three or four, right, Bonnicks, Drake May, Michael Pennix, or Hendon Hooker. I think any of those three could have been great. But the fact that Stetson Bennett is there. I mean some of these voters are like, are you You're not even watching games? 00:55:38 Speaker 2: Are you? Like you're not? 00:55:40 Speaker 1: Like what are we doing here? I mean I talked to a Heisman voter here in Uh you're in Corvallis, Oregon, where you know I work, and it's like, I voted for Michael Pennix. I didn't, Uh, I didn't, you know, I didn't vote for stets Man. 00:55:55 Speaker 2: Like what a joke? 00:55:57 Speaker 1: Like what are like? What are we doing? It's like when we'll in Orson got snubbed last year, Like come on, like, what what's the point of having an award of it that of the most outstanding player? If you're not gonna you know, reward the most outstanding players, it's really disappointing. And I feel bad for these guys, right, and it's yeah, it's terrible. 00:56:18 Speaker 2: Just invite three guys to the ceremony instead, Like, if you're not gonna include Panix or Hooker, just leave Bennett off the list, Like, just invite Doug in Williams and Stroud. 00:56:29 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I agree. I don't know. I'm just I'm at a loss forwards to that. I couldn't believe that when I saw that yesterday. It's I think really embarrassing for for the Heisman Trophy voters that that that is. And again no disrespect to Stetson Bennett, but you don't deserve to be there. And I think you would agree you don't deserve to be there over some of these other quarterbacks or running backs or wide receivers, pick anything. But you know, just because you go twelve and zeros a starting quarterback doesn't mean you should be invited to you or one last thing before we wrap up, how many quarter over under fifty percent of quarterbacks at the FBS level could have gone undefeated at Georgia this year? A lot over under fifty percent. 00:57:14 Speaker 2: I'll say, I'll say slide under. 00:57:20 Speaker 1: I was gonna say over, But I can see the sides like, Okay, I've done enough ranting on that that. 00:57:29 Speaker 2: Never forget you go ahead, Never forget that Justin Fields left Georgia or he was never given a chance to start at Georgia. 00:57:37 Speaker 1: That's a crying shame. You weren't at practice, though, Lyle, so you couldn't have known. M Kirby smart sock want to keep that in the perspective here. Just like Stetson Bennett beating out JT. Daniels by the way in the portal for the one one to no third time, JT. Daniels is in the portal now officially as of today, so the auxiliary effects of Stetson Bennett beating out in our quarterback still ripple throughout the college football world. That'll do it for us on this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast. You can follow us on all of our socials at marine Layer Pod, Twitter, Instagram, all the listening platforms Spotify, Apple Music, Google podcasts, Amazon Podcasts. You can find our short form content content on TikTok, on YouTube, on Instagram, and wherever else you might consume your information. Well, that'll do it for us here on the Marine Layer Podcast. We'll talk to you next week here on the PODi