Episode 9: Picking A New Year's Resolution For The Mariners, Another Ludicrous Extension For The Braves, And An AL West Foe Gets Stronger

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number nine of the Marine Layer Podcast with TJ. Matthewson and Lyle Goldstein. On today's pod, we have new Year's resolutions for the Mariners. I'm gonna go to the gym more. I don't know what Lyle's is, but we have a couple of them specifically for the Mariners. We'll take a look around baseball at our MLB wrap around. Sean Murphy signs an extension with the Braves. Nathan Avaldi joins the Texas Rangers. He's now in the American League West. We will close out the show with speak your Mind. With that, let's get it rolling, and we welcome you into episode number nine of the Marine Layer Podcast here on Tuesday, January third. Happy New Year, Lyle Goldstein. 00:00:54 Speaker 2: Happy New Year to you too. And I gotta tell you know how we started off the new year by opening up twe seeing a good old controversial MLB player rankings today and Julio five or six spots ahead of yord On Alvarez. 00:01:13 Speaker 1: Like, is that wrong? It's not wrong. 00:01:17 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, okay, so objectively I might put jord On above Julio for now, but we saw astros fans, in typical fashion, screaming about it on Twitter. So we took the opportunity to post about it on Twitter because we said, you know what, let's just add fuel to the fire here. 00:01:36 Speaker 1: Well, if you think about it, Julio plays center field, right, that alone makes you more valuable on a top one hundred players list. I mean, I guess if you're just ranking hitters, and sure, yeah, I mean Jordon's probably top five in all of baseball in that category. But he's also you know, big lumbering corner outfielder who plays in a in a tiny left field and is you know, know fine in the outfield. So I mean you can ding him on that. 00:02:04 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, like there's an argument. I just thought it was hilarious to see Astros fans get so mad about it. And again the account that put it out, some of their stuff can be controversial when they put out these rankings sometimes, but you know what, it was in our favor, so we took the opportunity to capitalize on it. 00:02:21 Speaker 1: I do love those rankings, especially now it's the It's been pretty dead these last few weeks in terms of baseball news, so I really think it's a perfect opportunity for that account to be like, Okay, I'm just gonna I'm gonna make this nice looking graphic and I might swap a few players around there. I think he had Anthony Rendon as a top fifty player, right, was it top fifty even though he hasn't like played in three years essentially, and uh it really it really kicks the beehive and I get a good laugh at that. But was I right on that Rendome thing? 00:02:54 Speaker 2: He was somewhere in that top one hundred and I don't even know if I put him in there at this point. I mean when he's healthy share but he hasn't been on the field. 00:03:02 Speaker 1: No, he hasn't. No last lasting image of good Anthony Rendon was the World Series and you know that was three seasons ago now, So I don't know. I do appreciate a good list, though. I think maybe if our editing skills ever get good enough with just to make some clickbait, I think that would be really funny. I think that would be good. Anyways, New Year New Mariners, I like to say knew me as well. I was kind of joking about the gym. I already liked to try and go to the gym a little bit more as you do, so it's not necessarily my New Year's resolution. I honestly, to be honest, don't even have a New Year's resolution for this year, not like a specific one thing. There's things I'd like to, you know, get better at, but I don't know how it is for you, Lyle. But I really have trouble just picking one thing. 00:03:52 Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel like I'm not much of a resolutions person. I guess I'm not flip the calendar, flip your personality type of guy. I guess if there's something I want to work on with in the course of the year, I do it at the time being, I'm not the person on January first, I was like, all right, I'm gonna do this. I'm gonna make sure this happens. I'm gonna execute it like this. Yeah, I'm not big on the whole resolutions thing, especially on January first. 00:04:17 Speaker 1: It just seems like procrastination one on one. 00:04:20 Speaker 2: Especially because people don't keep up with it. Like there's a lot of people that say they're going to go to the gym as their New Year's resolution, and then by Valentine's Day they've given it up. 00:04:29 Speaker 1: While I was at the gym yesterday on January second. I think I was one of maybe like six people in there. So I think people are really hammering home their resolutions. I think they're doing a great job. But the Mariners, we have a couple of New Year's resolutions for them which would make their twenty twenty three season that much Betterle, what is your New Year's resolution for the Seattle Mariners? 00:04:57 Speaker 2: Oh, you know, I've been itching to talk about this and there's like no easier way to rile me up than get getting me going on this topic. But this one's pretty easy for me, and I would think for any Mariners fan this would be toward the top of the list. But my new Year's resolution for the Mariners in twenty twenty three is Jared Kalmick turns into the player he was always projected to be. We can break this down here in this segment because I've got a lot of notes on why I think it can happen and why it's it's certainly in the cards. It's by no means, you know, down the drain. But that's my resolution because if he's added to this lineup, or his production is added to this lineup in the sense of he turns into the player that we know he can be and the analysts, scouts, writers, players, everybody thought he could originally be. That makes this team drastically different. 00:05:52 Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever seen you more excited to go to a ballpark than when we were to go see his debut. I mean, that's like, that is the kind of player he was projected be. What we see in Julio now in center field is what we thought Jared was gonna do when he came up. Even as if it's unfair to him, I think that's what we expected. 00:06:12 Speaker 2: And he warranted that. This is the thing that kind of gets me when people just trash on him on Twitter, which I can't stand by the way he was a lead enough in the minor leagues to get called up at twenty one years old because he was a top five prospect. And yeah, it's been a tough transition. I'm not gonna sit here and say I've been thrilled with his play through the first two years. But if he was still a prospect at twenty three years old where he's currently sitting, and he had never touched the majors, everybody would be raving about him still, and he'd probably still be the Mariner's top prospect. But because he's played in the majors and at an age where he's still two years too young to run a car, he hasn't figured it out yet. Everybody's ready to trade this guy away or throw him aside. And I can't understand it, because if he can hit his peak, and I really think that this year might be the year that he starts to unlock some of that, that changes this offense entirely. 00:07:08 Speaker 1: It does. It lengthens the lineup. It gives you that guy you know in the middle to bottom of your lineup from the left side, which, if you think about it, the Mariners, you know, in terms of left handed bats, it's Cal Rawley. And then well, you thought last year Jesse Winker was going to be that guy from the left side of the plate to really unlock something for the Mariners, but he never did. And you're looking for that other guy from the left side of the plate to really really break out. And if Jared were to do it at age twenty three, he'll turn twenty four this season. You know, playing the defense he did in left field, he you know, hated watching his defense when he came up as a rookie, it was just a mess overall. I think he ended up being grated as the worst defensive center field they're in baseball. But you shift him over to left. He plays excellent defensive left field with Taoskar Hernandez in right field, and he puts up what a one TORC plus this year and shows good speed on the base pads and good gap to gap power with you know, twenty home runs over the fence. That's what you wanted from this guy when you called him up. 00:08:13 Speaker 2: No doubt. And I'm gonna pull up this tweet here because you mentioned his defense, because you're right, it got really good once he moved to the corners, because he played good right field defense too. But take a look at the stat. This is from Maverick or Mariner's mav on Twitter. He tweeted this out a while back. Jered Klnik had only one hundred and seventy played appearances in games where he played the outfield this year. In that time, he put up a defensive war of two point seven. Now, if you change that to six hundred plate appearances, that'd be a nine point five defensive war, which would rank fifth among all outfielders in Major League Baseball. So the defense is there. And then there's another Mariners Twitter account named Gravel who does some really good work. He's talked a lot about. He thinks Jared and cal are actually similar hitters. If Kelmick puts up cal Raley's offensive season from last year in twenty twenty two and plays that type of defense, that's an All Star. That's exactly what they could. 00:09:09 Speaker 1: Have hoped for. Yeah, that is. And I don't know if I totally agree with that, if they're the same time of hitter, because here's how I think about it. I think what Jared has been trying to do in the major leagues is what cal Raly has successfully done at the plate, which is a lot of power, a lot of eggs, a velocity, a lot of extra base hits, and good defense. But when Jared was coming up through the minors, that's not necessarily who he was. And I think the big reason for Jared's struggles is because he got away from what he was as a hitter, which was a guy with gap power a kate would hit the ball over the wall twenty times a year, be good on the bass paths, steal some bases and play good defense in the outfield. He got away from it a little bit once he got to the major leagues. There you know a lot of talk about, you know, his time working with Mark mcgwah and his agent, and a whole bunch of other things in his ear about how what kind of hitter he was, about him bulking up and really swinging hard for the fences and getting away from what he was at the plate, which is when he got drafted as a high school player. It's just, Hey, this guy who has great back to ball skills, spraying the ball around the yard, playing good defense, and operating on the base pats. That's the successful game plan for Jared Kelnick, I think, because when he's tried to do the other stuff. Yeah, I mean, he's had flashes here and there, but you know, Jared hasn't really had an identity at the plate. And if he finds that identity back what made him so successful in the minors and what made him a top five prospect, I think that's really what leads the way for him. 00:10:48 Speaker 2: And you started to see that a little bit in the final couple weeks of the season when he got recalled this year, I mean the end of his seasons. In both twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, he really started to unlock some stuff, and I I think twenty twenty two even more so than twenty one, despite his numbers in September of twenty twenty one being a little bit better. In twenty twenty two, his final couple weeks, he put up a WRC plus of one h nine, but with that he was incredibly unlucky at the plate in those couple weeks, despite putting up some real production. But to your point about using the gaps more, he started to do that, and in fact, he had a couple home runs that went the opposite way just from putting good swings on the ball. So that's a big reason I think in twenty twenty three he could really start to have some things click, especially because you've heard Jerry Depoto talk about how in twenty twenty two, those final five weeks between Tacoma and the Majors, it was the biggest strides that he's made at the plate, they said since being a member of the organization, and again he's twenty three years old. I'm gonna throw this stat out there because I've tried to use it a lot. Aaron Judge debuted at twenty four. He was more than a year older when he debuted, and Kelnick is right now. Aaron Judge put up a sixty one ops plus in his first season at twenty four years old. Now was in twenty sixteen. It was bad, and I gotta tell you it's a really good thing. The Yankees gave up on that guy because he's never amounted to anything. So for all the fans that like to just drag him through the mud on social media say he's never gonna pan out, he's twenty three. Again, imagine if they had listened to the Yankees had listened to Yankees fans with Aaron Judge when he struggled his first time up when he was older than Kellnick was. 00:12:34 Speaker 1: I'm sure the takes on New York Sports Radio were great after he got sent down and all this guy stinks he's too big to hit. 00:12:43 Speaker 2: Exactly. And again, I just think that development is not linear. Yes, he did not figure things out and has not figured things out as fast as Julio has. That doesn't mean he still can't be a great player. The book is out on his career he's still incredibly young. He's played less than a full season of games. Like, I just think the breaks have to be pumped a little bit on what people's vision of him is, because if it all clicks and again, he really started to take some walks the last few weeks of the season two. As approach got better, he laid off those change ups low in a way which he struggled with a lot of the time. I think you're gonna see some big jumps in twenty twenty three. So if he can be the player that he was once projected to be, or even somewhat close to it, the Mariners offense gets that much better. 00:13:34 Speaker 1: I think all you have to do, really, Lile is just look at his strikeout rates in the minors, because that's another thing he did really well. I was talking about just being a good athlete and spraying the ball around the yard. He also just didn't strike out that much when he was in the minors, and that's what made him so valuable. The bat to ball skills is just so important. Like his minor league numbers. I mean, I'm just gonna read off some seasons nineteen and a half percent, twenty one and a half percent, twenty and a half percent, twenty five and a half percent, eighteen and a half percent, fifteen percent, and then his two major league you know stints twenty eight percent and thirty three percent. I mean, it's just enormous. And if that gets cut down, then I think we start seeing the Jared Keelnick that we always envision. I think that's key, right, you know, we we have embraced the fact that great players, if they're gonna slug a lot, will strike out. However, as we we've mentioned, like, we just don't necessarily think that's who Jared is. He's not an A or any of Suarez who can get away with striking out thirty percent of the time because he's got that thirty five homer power. That's not really, at least at this point of his career, the player that Jared is. And I think it just it's to get back to the player he was that made him such a good prospect, And that's what I'm also so excited to see my New Year's resolution for the Mariners. Lyle was the guy who was called up alongside Jared on that May day. I forget exactly which day in May it was. While you would remember which day was it. 00:15:06 Speaker 2: I believe it was May thirteenth, because it was kel Nick, Logan Gilbert, Paul Seawald all on the same day. 00:15:12 Speaker 1: Oh you guess it, Low, Mine was Paul Sewald. No, I'm kidding, kidding. My New Year's resolution for the Seattle Mariners is for Logan Gilbert to take that third year step forward. It was a mixed bag for Logan Gilbert this year, even though I didn't even always finished with a three to two ERA, which you look at that and you said at the beginning of the year, Okay, Logan Gilbert in his second major league season is going to throw one hundred and eighty five innings with a three to two ERA, make all thirty two of his starts, and record three wins above replacement. That sounds pretty good to me. We'll take it. But I think there's a little bit more in there for Logan Gilbert if he refines the pitches that we think he should over the course of this season. I think Logan Gilbert can take that next step forward this season. He's got, honestly that I think people aren't talking about quite as much. I think we hear just so much about George Kirby. Now he's the shiny new toy, but Logan Gilbert was a high rank prospect than George Kirby was coming up in the minors. He was the number twenty eight prospect in baseball when he was called up by MLB pipeline. That upside is there in Logan's right arm. And while we haven't seen everything we'd needed to from Logan, I think a third year breakout would make the Mariners a static. 00:16:30 Speaker 2: How much of it do you feel is fatigue and getting adjusted to a big league workload over his first couple of seasons, because you look at both of his first two years in the big leagues, he has struggled in the second half, specifically, that month of August has totally tanked his era two years in a row. Along with the idea that you look at twenty twenty two, he was the pitcher of the month. In April, he put up an forty er. He was unreal. But then August and that second half of the season kind of started to fall off a little bit. He picked it back up in September. That was the good news. But how much of it do you feel as fatigue? 00:17:09 Speaker 1: It could be it it could, but that September makes me think it's not well. He had a two ERA in September in thirty six innings, his second highest inning load of any month. Like it's it's like, okay, so you were tired in August, but you managed to throw almost forty innings in September with a two ERA. I mean, maybe a little bit, But I think it's all about adjustment. There's a couple things with Logan that we look at, and I think most of it has to do with the fact that he doesn't have a true good secondary pitch. He likes his curveball. He like, well, sorry, let me rephrase that he liked his curveball a lot in the minors. He's really started to shy away from it when he's gotten to the big leagues and he's sort of leaned on his slider a little bit more. But it hasn't been really an elite pitch, and his fastball can get hit around a lot. His fastball was the pitch he got a majority of his strikeouts with, but it's also the pitch that got hit the hardest, had the highest you know, hit it most in the air, hit it the hardest, like a ninety two average eggs at velocity's fastball, which is pretty bad but not unusual for a guy who throws ninety six. Usually when you throw the ball hard, the ball also gets hit hard when they make contacts, So I mean that's sort of a skewed number a little bit. But I think the big key for Logan is he really just needs that better. He needs that number two out pitch is what he really needs, and then I think he can sort of bail himself out of some of these situations where he can't put guys away. 00:18:43 Speaker 2: There were a lot of times in that rookie year where he just didn't have any of his three off speed pitches on a certain night, and he would have to get through games solely relying on his fastball. You didn't see that as much with them in twenty twenty two, and that was the good news. He definitely took jumps, but yeah, you're right, there were times where his off speed pitches just weren't up to the level that they can be when Logan's at his peak. I'll tell you the team always talks about they really like his change up. I know he prefers both of his breaking balls, but you've heard Jerry Depoto talk a lot about they really like Logan Gilbert's change up. He just doesn't throw it a whole ton, so it's kind of on the back end of his arsenal. But that's another pitch that when he throws it, it works for him. 00:19:23 Speaker 1: And I'd like him to throw it a little bit more. He threw it two hundred and forty one times this year, you know, for comparison through his fastball sixteen hundred times, so you know it's by percentage, it's just not really there. But that's sort of a pitch that, again, you want. He doesn't have any of his off speed pitches like a like a really elite whiff percentage like wiff meaning swing and miss, which would also correlate to strikeouts. You know. For example, like a guy like Robbie Ray gets hit pretty hard, but his slider still has like a whiff rate of over forty percent when he throws it because guys just struggle to hit it. So if Robbie, you know, really needs that out, he could just go to that slider and eventually he'll get a swing and miss on it because he knows the bite on it is there. But there's not as much bite on Logan's pitches, which can lead to trouble. He's third percentile and hard hit rate in fifth in average exit velocity, which is again just not really sustainable. And why you think, Hey, I'm trusting this guy to develop that secondary pitch and bring down those hard hit balls because most of the guys that had those same peripherals as Logan didn't have a three two ERA, So that showed how he was able to sort of get around that. 00:20:39 Speaker 2: Yeah, if you look at his Baseball Savant page, there's a lot of blue in there with those numbers, which, for those who are not familiar with Baseball Savant, if you're in the red that means good, if you're in the blue that means not so good. There is a lot of blue on Logan's page. And then when you look at some of his numbers, like his FIP, his XCRA, they were higher than his earned run average, And what those stats tell you is low probably got a little bit lucky throughout the course of the year with some quality defense behind him. So you're right, he absolutely has the ability to be a top end starter, and we've seen it plenty, but just doing it on a more consistent basis. If he can do that in twenty twenty three, with how Kirby's progressed, with how good we already know Luis Castillo is, Robbie Ray at the very least can be a quality start guy. This Mariner's rotation can be that much better if Logan can take another step. 00:21:29 Speaker 1: And there's nothing like you look at with Logan to say that he can't do it. I think there, you know, there's some mental things in there. Probably usually that is the way it is with most pictures. There's some grit purposes, there's you know, just his feel for the baseball, and you know, it could be any number of those things. I mean, hell, Logan could come out this year and start throwing a splitter and be the nastiest picture on earth. So we don't know. But again I think the big key I did I wrote down a to do list for Logan here to achieve his new Year's resolution. So again I mentioned the hard hit rate developed. A true out pitch could be any one of the current pitches he has throw over two hundred innings, strike out two hundred batters. That would be quite an achievement for Logan. I think if Logan reaches two hundred innings, he's probably going to strike out two hundred batters because his career K for nine is literally about nine, so that makes it pretty easy. I also want to note a couple guys who had third year breakouts. Just some guys you wouldn't you know, you'd know, but you're like, oh, hey, third season. I mean, he really just found it after a good to average second year in the baseball Three guys. A guy who we're going to talk about later on this podcast, Corey Klueber in his third full season one a Cy Young after being okay his first two seasons in Cleveland. Robbie Ray, his own teammate was okay with the Diamondbacks, had a two eight nine ERA in twenty seventeen, his third full MLB season, and he made the All Star Game. One final guy, Blake Snell, had a one eight nine ERA at age twenty five, his third full season in Tampa Bay. So it's not like a direct correlation that a third year is a ultimate breakout year for pitchers. Some guys are great right away, some guys take until there's fifth, sixth season to really turn into a great pitcher. But also there's an example like there is an option there for a third year starter to take that leap forward, and I think that would be my important for Logan Gilbert this. 00:23:45 Speaker 2: Year he does all that, I'll tell you what. That's what you call unlocking Walter. 00:23:52 Speaker 1: Oh, I'm down, I'm down. He I just the one thing he already has done to embrace this next step forward is embracing Walter because I think it suits him. 00:24:03 Speaker 2: Oh, it suits him. For those who don't know, Logan Gilbert was given an alter ego by I believe his teammates. They call him Walter, and I think the reason they gave him the nickname is because it was his alter ego, but it usually resulted in wins. So with the w I believe that's where it's stemmed from. 00:24:24 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't remember exactly who came up with it, but he's I know, off the mound, he's normally like this, just big quiet guy. But when he gets on the mound, I mean he like every picture. You know, it's like, don't talk to me on my start day, don't don't do it, don't do it. So that's because. 00:24:44 Speaker 2: He's locked in, and we certainly saw it and flashes during twenty twenty two and points at twenty twenty one too, so he does it for a more consistent, on a more consistent basis than twenty three. I think that'll be pretty exciting. So those we'll go ahead. 00:24:58 Speaker 1: I was gonna say, just like just thinking about from a big picture perspective, right, the guys everyone likes to talk about when it's like future, it's like, Okay, Castillo, Kirby, I mean, and you have Ray under contract for four more years. I mean, I just feel like Logan gets kind of forgot a little bit because it's like he's not striking out the world. He's you know, he gets hit kind of hard a lot, and I think it's just a lot of people just overlooking and he can just almost jump up on people this year, and I think they'll just be great. 00:25:28 Speaker 2: It would be great because again, there's been times where he's looked like the best arm on the roster. He's just got to do it a little bit more consistently. And just to clarify, we're not saying Logan's been bad by any means. He's been very good. We just know he can be even better. And if he can do that, if the two former roommates, Jared Kalnick and Logan Gilbert both hit their potential here in twenty twenty three, the Mariners all of a sudden, you could see that wind total up a significant amount. Before we move on to our next segment, we asked you guys, the listeners on our social media counts this week. We said, what are your New Year's resolutions for the Mariners in twenty twenty three because we wanted to hear from you guys, which, by the way, if you're not following all of our social media channels yet, you can do that over at Marine Layer Pod, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube. We got a few answers. We'll read a couple of them. We got one from Ryan that says twenty twenty three Mariners New Year's resolution Julio for MVP. Well, not only would I be very all in for that, it doesn't feel that out of the question either. 00:26:31 Speaker 1: No, I mean, what does it take probably to a division win in forty five homers you. 00:26:39 Speaker 2: Think something like that. I think Jeff Passen put the ALMVP award well when he talked about it. I think he stated it well when he talked about it. A few weeks ago, he said that it's basically going to be show Hey Otani, Show Heyotani's award to lose every single year, and somebody's going to have to do something really special to beat him out. And I think that's very true, but I also think Julio could do it. 00:27:03 Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be some voter fatigue though, because before Show Hey, I mean, it was also Mike Trout's Award to lose, and he didn't win it necessarily every year he would get hurt and not saying it's gonna happen to Show Hey, but he does play more baseball than any other player on Earth, So it's always the opportunity, right, And a Show Hey misses a month, then that leaves the door wide open for Julio. 00:27:28 Speaker 2: Yeah, it does. And our other answer that we another answer that we got, the last one we're gonna read out here on the podcast from Jordan, he said, successfully execute a suicide squeeze Now, TJ, we haven't had many opportunities on this podcast to touch on this subject yet, but the more people start to listen to us, the more they're gonna learn. We're big proponents of banning the bunt in baseball. So all respect to Jordan. If you're a big small ball guy, power to you. I personally have no interest in watching any suicide squeeze plays. 00:28:03 Speaker 1: I mean unless like Evan White's up there, or I would say abe at this rate, but at least suicide squeezes are like fun. At least you didn't say execute a sacrifice fun in that case to be like, well, we're gonna take this take and throw it over there in the trash can. I guess you know, there's a little there's a little bit of spice, and you know if they're trying to have a little bit of fun with it. I was there even a suicide squeeze attempted in the whole league last year. 00:28:33 Speaker 2: It's it's a lost art, and I think there's a reason for it, because sure, if you've got a Sam Haggerty up there, or like you said, Evan White, or a bench player, and you think it could work with a fast runner on base, like if Dylan Moore is at third or Julio's at third. Sure, but you look at the Mariners lineup. If you've got Julio up there, ty Gino cal the list goes on. Do you want any of those guys losing in a bat for dropping down a bunt and pushing a ball two feet in front of a plate. 00:29:05 Speaker 1: A bunch of guys that have not been asked a bunt in probably at least half a decade, right, It's not like they're practicing it. And you're like, okay, So now we're gonna send a guy stealing home from third base, and a guy's gonna be throwing ninety seven miles an hour at you, and we're gonna ask you to turn around and not pop this bunt up or miss it. It's gotta be a perfect bunt right out in front of the plate, no pressure, because if you mess up, we're not scoring a run. Yeah, great idea, I'm good. I'm good, rather than just swing. 00:29:38 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm out on that again. If you're a small ball fan, that's all fine and good. However, this podcast is about elevating and celebrating. 00:29:50 Speaker 1: I'm down. 00:29:53 Speaker 2: All right, let's transition into our MLB wrap around here. That was a good segment of New Year's Resolutions, but now to look across Major League Baseball. Our first segment TJ Sean Murphy after being traded from the A's to the Atlanta Braves. He signed an extension with Atlanta this past week, six years for seventy three million dollars, with a club option in twenty twenty nine. That would make the contract seven years for eighty eight million dollars. The Braves did it again. 00:30:31 Speaker 1: It just seems really low. I I know the guarantee at the total guarantees eighty eight million dollars if that option is exercised. That seems really low. Because Sean Murphy was worth five wins this year, and if you do the money factor, that a win is worth about eight million dollars. Sean Murphy was worth forty million dollars to the Oakland A's this year. And you're telling me he's gonna he would he he only needs to put up The Braves only need him to put up like twelve wins for this contin No, not even twelve eleven wins for this contract to pay itself off. That doesn't seem like too much from a guy who's pretty young, a good hitter, you know, about twenty percent better than league average that he did this year. I think he had a yeah, one twenty two WRC plus this year. He's a plus framer a solid defender behind the plate, he's about league average and defensive run saved, but framing is where his true value comes from. And he's gonna be hitting behind just a slew of more guy of guys, I mean, I just can't believe the number. It's just so bizarre. How like, how do they how do they do this? I don't get it with. 00:31:51 Speaker 2: Every guy too, Like every fucking Braves contract is like this, and I don't get it. I like, just because some of these players are getting their arbitration years bought out, they take these these extensions. But if you play that well, you're gonna get more money than your extension in arbitration anyway. So I never understand how they pull off these deals and how they've done it with every player. To your point, Sean Murphy is a defense first catcher, but he's a defense first catcher that also ranked fourth in all of baseball or all of baseball among catchers in WRC plus by war he was the second best catcher in all of baseball this year. You know who the most valuable catcher was? 00:32:34 Speaker 1: It was JT. 00:32:35 Speaker 2: Realmudo with the Phillies. He's on a five year one hundred and fifteen million dollar contract, So he's making a little over twenty three million bucks a year. I'd say that's a little more compared to the sixth year, seventy three million dollar extension that Sean Murphy just got as the second best catcher in all of baseball. 00:32:54 Speaker 1: I'm just trying to wonder how this like negotiating process goes. It's like, thankful to already be getting an extension, so I'll accept whatever number you offer me. Like where this is the one time where I'm gonna ask where is Scott Boris? Where? Like where is he? He would never let his clients sign these deals. It's just absurd. Are any of these braves deals like actually like above market? Austin Riley, Michael Harris, Matt Olsen, Murphy Streider, Akunya Grissom, Who that's just club control, Albi's Kyle Wright, Max Freed, all under contract through twenty twenty four. 00:33:34 Speaker 2: All of them, Riley and Olsen are making the most money among those guys. I still don't think those guys are being paid market value. I mean, Austin Riley is legitimately one of the best players in baseball at this point. I think he's being underpaid. I'll tell you the worst contract of all of them. A lot of people used to think it was Ozzy Albi's, and for a while there maybe it was. I think it's Michael Harris. You're making on average nine million bucks a year on that contract again in arbitration. If he keeps playing like this, he would make more than that in his arbitration years, and then he'd hit free agency. I have no clue how Alex and dal Anthopolis and the Braves get away with these deals, but it works for him, and they seem to convince every player to sign one. I'll tell you what, I'm pretty jealous as a Mariners fan watching what the Braves do because Cal Raleigh. While we're on the topic of catchers, who happens to be a Scott Boris guy. I guarantee you if he signs an extension with Seattle, it's it's not going to be six years for seventy three million dollars. 00:34:35 Speaker 1: Especially how the free agent market was this offseason. If you how much, it's not like that even hard to figure. If you put all of those guys who signed extensions on the free agent market this offseason, they would have gotten deals fifty percent hire at least right definitely, And I'm looking at this Harris one. I mean, you're you're right. It's it's not great, but you know, three of those years he was gonna or five of those years he was gonna be under club control regardless. So balances out a little bit. And he's only he's not missing too much a free agency. I mean, he'll still be a free agent when he's well two club options. He'll be a free agent when he's thirty two years old, which is not terrible for him. But man, I think there was this like roller coaster of this. First it was like, okay, what is Ronald Acuna doing? Second, what is Ozzy Albi's doing? And now we're to the third wheel of the spot or the third spoke of the wheel, And what is Michael Harris doing? Just to think It's like it's it's okay to bet on yourself, guys. I know, ninety million dollars is a lot, but Michael Harris puts together, what did you say so five he would have five years left until he's a free agent. Say you're good to elite for three of those years, you don't even have to be great all five years. I'm mean, you're talking, you know, good center field defense. He's gonna net at least one hundred and eighty million dollars at least. 00:36:08 Speaker 2: Right, I mean, do I think Julio is a better player than Michael Harris. Yeah, but I'm gonna be honest. You compare the rookie seasons. They're not that different, and Michael Harris played less games. If Michael Harris had started the year on the Braves roster, their numbers might look fairly similar. Again, Michael Harris's contract is going to average about nine million dollars a year. Julio Rodriguez has the chance to make the most money in American sports among all contracts. If that four hundred and seventy million dollars all maxes out, well, this. 00:36:42 Speaker 1: Guy didn't really get underpaid. Next guy we'll talk about, Nathan Evaldi is a Texas Ranger. Two years, thirty four million dollars to go to Arlington, and the Texas Rangers rotation is good. 00:37:00 Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta be honest. I didn't want to believe it for a while, but I think I'm finally ready to say if the Rangers rotation stays healthy, I think they might be competitive. It is a very good rotation if everybody stays healthy. I mean it's de Gram, Martin Perez, who was unbelievable last year, Avaldi, Andrew Heeny. It's a really really good rotation. Oh and then John Gray that's a good starting five. 00:37:31 Speaker 1: Yeah. Martin Perez unlock some stuff this year. Andrew Heiny did as well this past season. And Avaldi, you know, throws ninety seven to ninety eight and he's had some really good seasons with the Red Sox. So it's not a out of the question for you know, the Rangers to they I don't think they're a better rotation than the Mariners per se because they're older. I think they're all some more injury prone. But it's not too absurd to say that they would close the gap on the Mariners a little bit in terms of rotation. I still think the Astros would have the best rotation in the American League West, probably the best rotation in baseball. I don't think that's a question. Watched the World Series run, that's pretty obvious. Just had to watch the games. But the Mariners were second, and now the Rangers being healthy, I mean, there's not an easy day when you would face the Rangers with those five. 00:38:23 Speaker 2: Yeah, especially if everybody stays healthy. Now, Evolve wasn't great last year. He wasn't bad by any means, but he had a four four to thirty one XCRA. His era was a little bit better at three eighty seven. And I think he got a decent amount of money being the best starting pitcher left on the market at seventeen million bucks a year. But that also is the going rate for decent to good starting pitchers and free agency a lot of the time these days, and we know he can also be better than that. So the Rangers credit to them. They're doing a lot more than their division rival, the A's are doing when you're talking when you're talking about going for it. They're doing a lot more than a lot of teams are doing when you're talking about going for it. So are they going to make the playoffs? It's to be seen. But they're trying to win and that's a lot more than a lot of teams can say. 00:39:12 Speaker 1: Remember, a low baseball is not profitable. 00:39:15 Speaker 2: It's never profitable. Ever. Well, to move on to our last guy here, after of all these signed with the Rangers, he leaves the Red Sox Boston fills that slot somewhat as they bring in Corey Klueber on a one year deal. He has a club option in twenty twenty four, but he's only guaranteed one year. They needed to do something with a Valdi leaving, and I guess this is something since Kluber was healthy all of twenty twenty two. 00:39:46 Speaker 1: I think it's just kind of puzzling what the Red Sox are doing. I got the notification earlier today that the Red Sox endeavors agreed to avoid arbitration with a contract. But everything we see from Boston now is like like that they're like cutting corners. It seems like with everything, it's just so strange. They let Bogarts walk, they trade Mookie to save money, and everyone it seems as like so paranoid that they're gonna they're gonna let Raffie Devers walk or trade him. Is so you know, when it comes to signing, I mean, I feel like Red Sox fans would have been perfectly happy just resigning Nathan Evaldi for a little bit more, but you know, the Red Sox decided, well, I guess we can get Kluber on a ten million dollar contract instead of you know, probably seventeen plus for Nathan Evaldi and he ends up going to Texas instead. It was interesting. I guess with Kluber this year. 00:40:41 Speaker 3: He he was okay with the Raids, but you know, he he sort of transformed himself less of a strikeout picture picture, more of a contact guy. 00:40:53 Speaker 1: Uh and threw his cutter a ton. He hadn't He had start using his cutter a little bit, but he threw his cutter more than any other pitch in twenty twenty two third about thirty four percent of the time. I don't know if that works at Fenway Park. Maybe it will if you just pitch to contact in Kluber not really going to blow you away anymore so in a tough American league. East don't really know Boston. I'm not sure. 00:41:21 Speaker 2: He didn't have a great year as a whole. Last year he didn't put up a full win is XCRA was about four. I mean put up a four to thirty four era that Red Sox rotation. I gotta tell you, they went out and spent some money on Yoshida this offseason to add to their offense, and I know they lost boguards, but you look at the Red Sox rotation right now. It's Corey Klueber, Nick Pavetta if he's healthy, Chris Sale but they've talked about trying to shop him around, James Paxton if he's healthy, but he didn't pitch at all last year, and after that, Tanner how Brian Bellow. I mean, this does not sound like a rotation that's gonna be pitching in the postseason. It sounds like what they're doing with their off season. 00:42:11 Speaker 1: Gonna be honest, sounds like the Red Sox are finishing and last That's what it sounds like. I mean, what who are you, like, what team are you putting them over in the Al East? With the with the current you know, set of players they have. 00:42:26 Speaker 2: You can't. I would. I would take all of the four other teams to finish above Boston right now. 00:42:32 Speaker 1: I know. And it's like it's just puzzling. I mean, they have the resources. They could have signed Bogarts, not like they don't have the money to sign Xander Bogarts, but and you know, they could have gone after a guy in the they really wanted to shore up their rotation. They could have gone after one of the free agents too. I know, Fenway's not a great pitcher's park, but you know it's Boston. You can pay guys and they haven't, so it's kind of strange. You know what else is strange? We heard anything from Korea. 00:43:03 Speaker 2: Who in the world knows what's going on with that. Ken Rosenthal this afternoon said that his contracts still being worked on, but all of a sudden, it sounds like whatever his new contract is going to be is going to be drastically different than the twelve years, three hundred and fifteen million dollars he was originally supposed to get with the Mets, So it sounds like there's some progression, but it also sounds like he's going to lose some money. 00:43:30 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:43:31 Speaker 1: I mean, man, Jerry, two years, one hundred million dollars, just stew it. 00:43:38 Speaker 2: Stew it three for one twenty. Like we said on one of our last episodes, I'm down. 00:43:42 Speaker 1: And if he wants higher per year, okay, fine, we'll knock a year off and we'll knock up the average annual value. That sounds fine. I don't see why not. It's just so puzzling. I mean, it's been radio silence for two weeks. 00:43:56 Speaker 2: It doesn't make any sense. 00:43:57 Speaker 1: They agreed to the deal, and then a couple of days later, I mean, and it comes out that the same issue popped up and we have heard nothing, absolutely nothing. I mean, how many other teams are now throwing an offers to Scott Boris? 00:44:10 Speaker 2: Do we think, Well, that's what I'm wondering. Is there a chance Korea could actually sign with a third team this offseason? 00:44:19 Speaker 1: Well, that'll be a first, to say the least. I mean, a guy agreeing to a contract with three separate teams. I mean, the like, the only thing I can think about. 00:44:31 Speaker 2: Do you remember that. 00:44:33 Speaker 1: In the NBA? DeAndre Jordan I think in twenty fifteen agreed to sign with the Mavericks and it took the Clippers to go, like sit in his house and lock themselves inside to force him to change his mind. I mean, that's what it kind of feels like in a sense right now, where it's except you know, Carlos Correa and Scott Boris are locking themselves in their own house because they're, you know, trying to Korea paid more, and teams don't like the medicals they see. It's just so puzzling. We don't see this. 00:45:09 Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't. I don't know what's gonna happen. If I have to guess, he's gonna stay a met But we've never seen a situation like this where there is this much hold up with a contract. And I understand why, because the contract is so long for a player that you want to invest a lot of money in. But to have the potential that he could agree to a deal with a third different team in an offseason, I mean you could write a book about that. 00:45:39 Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know. I think at this point he's just gonna sign something shorter. I just don't think he's gonna get that long term deal, not with this two separate teams telling him no, essentially with the medicals. It's bizarre, but sometimes that's just how it is. And if I'm Korea, like, I mean, if one hundred and eighty over, you know, four years, one hundred and eighty over five years, I mean, I guess if that's what it's gonna take. 00:46:07 Speaker 2: As we wrap this up, will he be signed or not when we record our next podcast? No? Still, now, wouldn't we have heard something. 00:46:16 Speaker 1: We would have heard something. 00:46:19 Speaker 2: He posted something a little bit not cryptic but maybe telling on Instagram today he took a picture with his kid and it said like taking my kid to work with me today, and he had a glove in his hand. I don't know if that signals to a deal potentially being close to getting done. Some people were speculating that maybe it is. 00:46:41 Speaker 1: Because regardless of if he's under contract or not, he's still gonna go train right. Yeah, he would, so that's probably I think that's what he was doing it unless he's he took a picture of himself like with Steve Cone and Scott Boris in the same room hammering out contract details. Yeah, I don't know. It's just it's strange. We haven't seen it. 00:47:03 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, and. 00:47:04 Speaker 1: We will close out this episode finally, time for Speak your Mind, Speak your Mind spok. That would be unwise. 00:47:16 Speaker 2: What is necessary is never unwise. 00:47:20 Speaker 1: And it was an entertaining week with Lyle and I back for New Year's did allow us an opportunity to get our first I believe our first Speak your Mind subject. I actually know. I think we're gonna save that one for last. But Lyle, I have an idea of what you're gonna do, so I'm gonna let you go first. What is on your mind? 00:47:41 Speaker 2: There's a couple of things this week, but to start out as two people who are also big college football fans, I was just so thrilled to finally have two good games in the college Football Playoff this year. I mean, those are the best duo of games we've gotten in the Playoff in the semi finals since the new format started. And I know it's been less than a decade since we've had the new format, but finally, I mean, these games are always blowouts, at least one of them, and finally we got two really really entertaining games with teams that matched up pretty competitively against each other, and I was pretty happy to sit there and watch. 00:48:20 Speaker 1: It seems like we get a good game on the semi final weekend about one every other year, it seems like, which is kind of strange to think about, but that's really how it's been. I mean, it's unfortunate, but usually the top two in college football are exponentially better than everyone else, and that's just kind of how the talent breakdown goes when you look at recruits and recruiting rankings and such across the country. But finally, it seemed like we had four teams who are somewhat equally matched. Although don't think the national championship is going to be very good a week from yesterday on the ninth. However, I'm gonna appreciate the weekend that we had because you know, you think you just think about all the storylines, right, I mean, first, you have Jim Harbaugh, who's finally, like you know, second season beats beats Ohio State, excuse me, second time in a row, after we thought he never was going to beat them, and he's riding high. He's a touchdown favorite against a plucky TCU team that's wasn't even ranked to start the year and had five come from behind wins, and we're you know, all over the place, and people were doubting them, and they still made the top three, lost their conference title game, and then TCU goes out there and spacks Michigan in the mouth in a crazy back and forth game, and then the next game, we didn't think anything with top Michigan TCU. The next game was arguably better, and the best collection of talent we'll see on a football field all season was Georgia Ohio State. The matchup of just the pure talent of Georgia and the just offensive execution of Ohio State and those wide receivers they have, Marvin Harrison Junior, a Mecca Abuka, I mean, just unbelievable to play a CJ. Stroup playing the game of his life in just an overall just phenomenal weekend. I couldn't have been happier. I really couldn't have. 00:50:19 Speaker 2: It's too bad Ohio State didn't win because it felt like Ohio State TCU had a chance to be a pretty evenly matched national title where we obviously sit here and think Georgia is much more talented than TCU is, And I'll tell you Georgia has a chance to go back to back and win two straight national championships. But they always say there's luck involved in every championship run. Georgia's had some luck the last two years, as good as their roster's been. Last year's national championship, Jamison Williams, maybe the best player on the field for Alabama, goes out with an injury. Georgia wins. This year against Ohio State, Marvin Harrison, arguably the best player on the field, goes out with an injury in the fourth order, and Georgia comes back and wins. So Ohio State had a little bit of a tough break. Of course, Smith and Jig but wasn't playing. He's barely played all season. But Georgia, again, they're really good, but they caught some breaks. 00:51:14 Speaker 1: Well, sometimes that's just how it is. I mean, in sports, winning is partially luck, not as much in college football because sometimes twenty nineteen LSU, you're literally just that much better than every single other team and it doesn't really matter what happens. But in the case of Georgia, yeah, you're right, and it seems like that's going to help them to a second consecutive national championships. Last time I checked, Vegas a two touchdown favorite for Georgia. So my expectations for Monday are low. To keep with the theme of the college football bowl games, really appreciative. The last traditional Rose Bowl was this weekend. The game was okay itself, speaking of best players leaving with injury. Cam Rising looked so good again the Utah quarterback and then for the second consecutive Rose Bowl to scramble and gets knocked out of the game and Penn State goes on and wins that game. So it was unfortunate, but the setting really, you know, Big ten Pac twelve. Such a historic matchup at that venue with on taking place on usually on New Year's Day two o'clock, and it's just a beautiful setting. It's now going to be part of the college Football Playoff for as long as the playoff is a part of college football, which is unfortunate because it sort of it does take the history out of the game and college football is really you know, I'm not a huge tradition guy, but college football is a traditional sport and I think that's what makes it great. But yeah, it was nice to see that one final display of the Rose Bowl. 00:52:45 Speaker 2: I'm gonna be honest, I didn't watch a whole lot of it. As you know, I just can't really get motivated about ballseason, even the New Year's six games. I love college football. My eyes are glued to the TV every Saturday during the regular season. Obviously I watched the playoff in the National title. These ball games just don't do it for me. It just feels like you're playing for a participation trophy. And I know a lot of people feel differently, but that's why I can't personally get excited about ball games. 00:53:12 Speaker 1: Would you watch it more? If the Bulls are cutting checks to the players to play in the games. 00:53:17 Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think it takes an incentive for me to watch the game, AKA it has to feel like they're playing for something, AKA they're playing for a title. I think that's what it would take. I think the players deserve a check no matter what. But I think it's the incentive that does it for me. 00:53:34 Speaker 1: Yeah, I get that, which is why I know you're a bigger fan of the expanded playoff than I am. Personally. Don't think it bounces out the sport that much more at all. It just makes for some entertaining early games. But regardless, that's the road we're going down, so we're going to accept it, and the Rose Bowl will be part of that. I'm excited for some of the potential matchups we're gonna get. We're going to get some matchups we've never seen in the Rose Bowl, which I think is really intriguing. But you know, it's now the concept of well to all the pack twelve teams that have never made it our school rival to a Rose Bowl. They will now never most likely never get that opportunity to go into a Rose Bowl game because there's no guarantee at all if you win the Pac twelve, you're going to be in that game. So that's just a thought. 00:54:20 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair. My second speak your mind, we hung out this week when you were back home from Oregon for the holidays. We watched those college football playoff games. We also went out in Seattle for New Year's Eve, which was fun. But the second speak to your mind I have is the uber surge on New Year's Eve is real. I mean, I know everybody talks about it every year, but every year you're reminded how bad it gets. Because when we were ready to leave and go back home eventually, not only did we spend probably close to an hour trying to wait for an uber, only to have a few of them just not show up because so many people were requesting ubers, but there were also points where it said it was gonna be about one hundred dollars to go two miles, which led the two of us to walking some of the distance off, including walking up some big hills in the middle of the night, and finally waiting it out to call an uber that was reasonably priced to go back home. Man, those uber surges are real, and again they talk about it every year, but when you actually live through it, it's more of a slap in the face. 00:55:31 Speaker 1: And the thing is, it's not even as bad as some of the ones I saw. I saw a video of Epcot in Orlando, part of the Disney World park that people went there to watch fireworks and they were all trying to get home after the fireworks, and I swear there was probably four hundred people waiting on a curb for their ubers. I'm like, wow, that seems even worse than what we had to go through. But yeah, it's just it is absolutely absurd how much those surcharges are and it makes you think, well, maybe cabs weren't that bad. To be honest, maybe they're not, because you know what cabs don't do. There's no surcharge, not usually, not to that extent. It's like a it's probably like a gradual percent up, but not like Uber where it's like, oh, if X amount of people are requesting in this area, I mean we're literally gonna quadruple the price. It's like, no, no, no, I did float to you dog. We could have walked home. 00:56:25 Speaker 2: That would have been a long walk. 00:56:27 Speaker 1: Honestly, not that bad. I've done it. It's not that far. 00:56:31 Speaker 2: Well maybe if it was the middle of the afternoon it would have been. 00:56:34 Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, well it's unfortunate. That could be an adventure for another time. I am one who's experienced in long, late night walks, as you know, but this one I think we avoided quite well. My final speak your mind here today, I'm just happy that the NHL yesterday announced the Winter Classic is gonna be at T to Mobile Park New Year's Day, twenty twenty four. I'm very much looking forward to that. It'll be the Cracking and the Golden Knights from T Mobile Park does relate to this podcast. I went to my first Cracking game last week on Wednesday, Beautiful Arena. But now they're going to get to play an outdoor hockey game at T Mobile Park. And the incentive was, Hey, we can build this rink under the roof in case it rains, and if it's a nice day on New Year's Day, we'll open the roof and if not, well we'll just close it like they do for all the baseball games. So I think that'll be super cool and a really cool visual And Doug, you can go hang out in the pen and watch that game your favorite. 00:57:36 Speaker 2: Oh there's another topic we haven't had a chance to talk about on this podcast yet. I will spend zero time in the pen, ever, I'm good. 00:57:46 Speaker 1: Think of how cool it would be to watch an NHL game from the front row of the pen. You know, you just gotten your nice craft beer from a local Seattle brewery, talking with all the bros about you know, Meriter's prospects and how much you know of hockey. I mean, doesn't it just sound great? Yeah? 00:58:04 Speaker 2: As Ryan Devis joins everyone and starts blasting Pitbull, Yeah. 00:58:09 Speaker 1: Pretty much. But I think it's awesome that the NHL is gonna come out to a you know and host the two expansion teams in the final two expansion teams in the NHL. So that'll that'll be super cool and it will go. I know they played in Fenway yesterday, and I know it'll go significantly better than when they put it in Lake Tahoe a couple of years ago and the ice couldn't stop melting. That was a funny visual. But I don't think they'll have that problem with a more climate controlled place. 00:58:38 Speaker 2: And you're gonna get the chance to see people absolutely file into that place. That was something I didn't think about because when this guy announced, I guess I didn't really understand what the big deal was since I never grew up much of a huge hockey fan. But then thinking about it more and the idea of it could be forty thousand people at this event will be pretty awesome because in a normal you're not getting forty thousand and plus it's outside, it's at a baseball stadium. Yeah, it's got a chance to be pretty cool. So I'm looking forward to it too. 00:59:09 Speaker 1: Wonder if it could help the Mariners afford a free agent m H. 00:59:13 Speaker 2: I would hope so, and maybe one next year who pitches and hits. 00:59:18 Speaker 1: Oh that's a good idea. 00:59:21 Speaker 2: Well, that'll just about wrap us up for this week's episode of the Marine Layer Podcast. If you want to continue to follow us, you've got a bunch of ways to do it. We're on Apple, We're on Spotify, Google Podcasts, Amazon and YouTube. For the video version of our full podcast, you can get the audio forms on again, Apple, Spotify, Amazon, Google, video forms on YouTube. If you want to follow us on social media, we're on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, shorts, and Twitter at Marine Layer Pod for TJ. Matthewson. This is Lyle Goldstein. Thanks, as always for tuning in. We'll talk to you guys next week.