Episode 112: Bullpen Preview

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[00:01:34] Welcome to episode number 112 of the Marine Layer podcast.

[00:01:38] It's our bullpen preview for the 2024 season.

[00:01:41] We'll take a look at how we expect the Mariners relievers to perform this upcoming year.

[00:01:46] If you're listening to the podcast, here's your reminder.

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[00:02:08] Let's get it rolling.

[00:02:19] And we welcome you to the episode of the Marine Layer podcast part of the just baseball podcast network recording here on Tuesday March 19th.

[00:02:32] And at least Blake snow is not an astro.

[00:02:37] Well, yes, this was best possible scenario for the Mariners.

[00:02:42] He's not only is he not in the American Lee West, not only is he not with the Astros.

[00:02:45] He's not in the American Lee period.

[00:02:47] So for him to go to the Giants, sure, but that's less of a takeaway I have.

[00:02:52] The bigger takeaway is just Scott Boris continues to have the off season from hell.

[00:02:58] This guy like this guy's going to start losing clients.

[00:03:01] I don't know how anybody can look at what he's done this off season and be like,

[00:03:04] yep, that's who I trust to get me my payday.

[00:03:07] And look at the the the the the waterfall, the snowball factor after there's a mutiny now within the MLB PA.

[00:03:16] I don't have the names in front of me, but the second in charge of the PA is buddy buddy with Scott Boris and the players are like, no.

[00:03:24] Like on the we're not this guy's not operating in our best interest.

[00:03:28] He's out of here.

[00:03:29] This is like this is like like any like any movie where you're trying to like overthrow government.

[00:03:36] It's like you start a mutiny you do all these like things like that's what's happening in the MLB PA and people might be saying Scott Boris is the reason of all of this.

[00:03:45] You got to be furious if you're Jordan Montgomery man.

[00:03:48] It is March 19th opening day is in nine days.

[00:03:54] Jordan Montgomery said I want seven years.

[00:03:56] Scott Boris says to all these teams, Jordan Montgomery is getting seven years and Jordan Montgomery is nine days away from filing for unemployment.

[00:04:06] God.

[00:04:08] Dude, he is so cooked Scott Boris.

[00:04:12] He like he was so sure he was going to get everybody their money and look what happened.

[00:04:19] He overplayed his hand and it cost him think about this.

[00:04:22] John who Lee has not played a game in Major League Baseball.

[00:04:26] This guy's essentially never played above double A if you consider the Korean League double A, the Japan to be triple A in the NPB

[00:04:34] and then the Major leagues.

[00:04:36] John who Lee's essentially never played above double A he got more total money on his free agent deal.

[00:04:42] Then the two time saw young winner Blake snail who just won it five months ago more money.

[00:04:49] Scott Boris cost Blake, snale $100 million by rejecting that Yankees offer from a couple months ago.

[00:04:55] I don't know what's going on in the head of Blake's now right now.

[00:04:57] Maybe he's just happy to be playing.

[00:04:58] I'd be living if I was him because he's gonna he probably if he has another great year.

[00:05:03] He's gonna opt out again and try again because he only has one.

[00:05:07] It's a two year deal and he can it's essentially the LeBron contract.

[00:05:11] Two year deal with an opt out after one and he can just hit the free agent market again.

[00:05:15] But there's no guarantee the teams are going to spend again right.

[00:05:19] I think Boris sits here and is pointing fingers at the team saying the RSN bubbles causing my clients to lose money.

[00:05:26] Wasn't on Scott Boris to like be a little bit smarter when you see $168 million sitting out there.

[00:05:32] You realize I'm not get a lot higher than this.

[00:05:37] You're just I don't even know what I'm I don't even know what the right word to put it into context is.

[00:05:43] But yeah, like other than he overplayed his hand.

[00:05:46] If you knew that RSN were going to cost teams money this off season, take what you can get.

[00:05:51] Like you're just getting greedy at that point if you're Scott Boris again $168 million versus $200 million.

[00:05:56] I know $32 million is a big difference.

[00:05:59] But in reality $168 million box sets up Blake's Nell's family for generations of wealth and Scott Boris and no,

[00:06:07] we're going to sit around.

[00:06:08] We're going to wait it out and then he was wrong.

[00:06:11] It's like that my brother tweeted out a clip about it.

[00:06:13] It's like that clip in Seinfeld where George just stands.

[00:06:16] It was so sure they were going to get he was going to get himself and Jerry more money only to find out.

[00:06:23] He held out to take less money and Jerry Seinfeld's like, I thought the point of a negotiation is for your price tag to go up.

[00:06:31] And George is like, well, I was wrong.

[00:06:34] You were right.

[00:06:35] Scott Boris is George Cassanza right now because he has cost his clients a lot of money.

[00:06:40] And if I'm Blake's Nell.

[00:06:41] So as we start to wrap this up, if you're serious about opting out and getting into free agency again next year, find a new agent dude.

[00:06:47] Like I don't know how you could go through this again with Boris at your side.

[00:06:52] And he's not even setting up smell for success this season.

[00:06:55] How are you setting up your client for success, signing him 11 days before the season starts?

[00:07:00] Oh, you're not.

[00:07:01] No, he's he's not ready.

[00:07:03] He's not going to be ready to go for opening day now.

[00:07:04] He may be in the rotation opening day.

[00:07:06] I'm sure he's been throwing elongated bullpen's and like as we saw he was thrown in front of scouts just a few days ago.

[00:07:12] But that's not real spring training work.

[00:07:14] He hasn't been there since mid February.

[00:07:16] What's Jordan Montgomery going to do when he signs?

[00:07:19] Like he's got a build up too.

[00:07:21] Blake's Nell is coming in like you said less than two weeks before the season and is not thrown in a spring training game.

[00:07:28] Yeah, not good.

[00:07:29] Not good for Scott Boris at all.

[00:07:31] Not good, but I'm sure Scott will play it off and it'll come up with some stupid quotes again next winter meetings to

[00:07:38] to claim that he's back.

[00:07:40] He's back and ready than ever.

[00:07:41] Let's get into our bullpen preview as we enter the final segment of the Major League roster to preview.

[00:07:48] Here for this 2024 season starting off with the flame thrower.

[00:07:52] How refreshing has it been?

[00:07:54] Wow to watch Andre Spunio's this spring coming off a season where he was good.

[00:07:58] He's still at a sub three year A he had good fit.

[00:08:01] He had a good strikeout rate.

[00:08:02] His walk rate was a little high, but overall watching Andre Spunio's last season.

[00:08:07] It was clear as day that he was not in the same place as he was in 2022 when he was one of the best if not the best reliever in the American League.

[00:08:17] I feel like this is a season now where Andre Spunio's can get back to that level coming up here in 2024.

[00:08:24] I think the number one reason for that may be health.

[00:08:27] Think about last year, the guy had foot surgery in the offseason.

[00:08:30] He basically didn't throw much in spring training last year because he had a lot of recovery time from that.

[00:08:37] Then pretty early on in April, he got injured and was out till mid-June.

[00:08:41] So he didn't have a lot of time to

[00:08:43] have his usual throwing program and get into the swing of things

[00:08:46] and as a result, again, like this is all in context.

[00:08:50] Right? Even last year, Munoz was still one of the best relievers in baseball, but maybe instead of being in the top five, he was more in the top 12.

[00:08:58] But now being healthy this year at spring training full off season everything.

[00:09:03] Oh, you can tell what the difference is.

[00:09:05] And the main thing you can tell the difference of is how sharp that slider looks again, which again, I think all comes back to health and being able

[00:09:13] to be on the field all winter and all spring.

[00:09:16] Think of the difference between his last two off seasons.

[00:09:18] So the last offseason where he had foot surgery is after the playoff run in 2022, he got foot surgery and like he said

[00:09:25] he couldn't throw.

[00:09:25] We couldn't really work out as much as he wanted to.

[00:09:29] And then he gets into spring training dealt deals with injuries doesn't really get up to full speed until June.

[00:09:34] Well, this off season he said he did.

[00:09:36] He took like a week off.

[00:09:38] That's it.

[00:09:38] And then he went back to his hometown of Mexico and just started running.

[00:09:43] He ran a lot.

[00:09:44] I think his family is a bunch of a bunch of track athletes and he goes out there and he just runs a lot and he gets

[00:09:51] he stays in good shape and he continues to throw and continues to work out.

[00:09:55] And he said, I feel amazing.

[00:09:56] Like I feel great.

[00:09:57] And it's apparent this student February was dialing 101 on his fastball in February like barely into spring was up to

[00:10:04] almost full speed on his fastball.

[00:10:06] And all the signs that we've seen here in spring have just been dominant.

[00:10:10] It's been dominant.

[00:10:11] The biggest the biggest difference between his 2022 season and his 2023 season.

[00:10:17] I think comes down to the location of his slider.

[00:10:19] Have you do you look at his freight charts at all in baseball?

[00:10:23] I know that like if you're talking about like pitch by pitch and the value of it or you talking about the bubbles,

[00:10:29] like which part of baseball some on the the the spray charts, the heat maps for his pitches in location.

[00:10:37] Probably not as closely as you did.

[00:10:38] It's I mean, you clearly have something to say about it to go ahead.

[00:10:41] It stands out when we're done recording.

[00:10:43] I want you to go to baseball.

[00:10:44] So I want you to take a look at those heat maps, the his 2022 heat map.

[00:10:49] I mean, it is the hard read like the deep red, which is high frequency of the slider in the lower outside corner to right hand hitters.

[00:10:59] And it is almost a perfect circle.

[00:11:02] It looks like he has that spot dialed in to the maximum extent, whether it be into lefties out to righties.

[00:11:08] He had it dialed in and it was arguably the best slider baseball outside of Nwindie as in 2022.

[00:11:13] It was amazing.

[00:11:15] Last year, that thing sprayed everywhere.

[00:11:18] He had a lot of trouble throwing that thing for a strike now partially because he was not 100%.

[00:11:25] I don't think during the season.

[00:11:27] I think you was still dealing with something during the season.

[00:11:30] But also again, he couldn't really dial it in and he didn't have a chance to dial it in during the offseason and really get right.

[00:11:37] So that led to that pitch taken an immense step back and we saw what happened when he couldn't put away batters as effectively.

[00:11:44] And I say that as a guy who had nearly a 32% strikeout rate, oh, he couldn't get couldn't put away batters.

[00:11:50] He could not as efficiently as he did in 2022 when that slider was dialed in.

[00:11:56] He was just he became less efficient last year.

[00:11:59] And it showed with the walk rate allowed more opportunities and overall you could tell he was not quite as effective.

[00:12:09] The walks is the big thing like in the command for that matter, I like.

[00:12:14] Munoz is going to be a great relief or no matter what likely but what can turn him into the 2022 Munoz versus more of the 2023 Munoz is the walks like look at the difference between 22 and 23.

[00:12:27] In 22 he was basically in the top 20% tile of the league in terms of walk rate like he didn't really walk guys.

[00:12:34] Last year was a lot different. He was all the way down in about the 22nd percentile to lead.

[00:12:40] That's a massive difference. You're talking over 50% difference in terms of your walk rate compared to the rest of the league year by year.

[00:12:47] So if you can get back to throwing a lot more strikes this year, I like that and landing the slider which is kind of all tied into one.

[00:12:55] Can be the big difference of who Andre's Munoz can be in 2024. I will say if you want to look at a positive from last year because he had issues with the slider.

[00:13:05] It forced him to throw that sinker a lot more and you know what that sinker did a lot for him last year while the slider wasn't working.

[00:13:12] He found a second pitch to go with his basketball in the sinker.

[00:13:16] And it and I don't want to say did wonders for him like it wasn't like the best the best pitch and baseball or anything like that.

[00:13:23] But it was a very good pitch. I get helped him a lot last year and it's a reason he still had a good year last year.

[00:13:28] Now imagine healthy Andre's Munoz with the slider return his 103 mile an hour fastball and the sinker that is a recipe for success.

[00:13:37] The biggest thing out of the gate is when he couldn't throw a slider for a strike you couldn't get hitters off of his fastball.

[00:13:43] And if there was a negative from his 2022 season, no matter how hard he threw his fastballs fastball is still pretty hittable by the numbers.

[00:13:50] But the sinker with the ball running away from the barrel and the the arm side direction.

[00:13:55] Well, he couldn't throw his slider as often for a strike when he wanted to.

[00:13:59] The sinker would could go for a strike and go off the barrel and help mitigate the damage on on that fastball.

[00:14:07] So if he's going to dial if he feels good about a slider and he starts throwing it back up to the percentage he did in 2022.

[00:14:15] I'm like the sinker is fine.

[00:14:17] But if Andre's Munoz can essentially just go replicate his 2022 season again, that would be great.

[00:14:22] Like he doesn't need he honestly does not need to improve anything past that if Andre's Munoz says 10 seasons like his 2022 season.

[00:14:29] This dude might go to the Hall of Fame.

[00:14:30] So yes, go go back like find a way to get back to the 2022 version of Andre's Munoz.

[00:14:37] If that means hey, I might tune the sinker down to about 10% of the time.

[00:14:42] And the slider is going back from the mid 50s, percents of throwing it back up to 65% because it's the best pitch.

[00:14:51] I'm going to throw it the most.

[00:14:53] So I think that's what I'm looking for is like the usage of that slider is going to tell us a lot of how he feels about that pitch and how he feels about locating it and how effective it's going to be because he's going to have to right out the gate here.

[00:15:06] He is going to be leaned on as the clear cut one not oh on a night there could be a brush

[00:15:12] or there could be a Justin Topa to put out the fire at the end of the game.

[00:15:15] No, no, it's going to be it's going to be Andre's Munoz who's the guy to close things out at the beginning of the season is going to be a little bit of pressure there in April.

[00:15:23] I agree.

[00:15:24] And we keep talking about April is going to be key for the man is getting off to a hot start is important in the bullpen which is going to be a little bit shorthanded to start the year.

[00:15:36] We're going to need Munoz a lot before we talk about a couple of the guys that are going to start the year on the shelf let's take a quick pause talked about our great friends over at Pagot just pub A five that's over in Kirkland you guys hear us talk about it.

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[00:18:09] So reliever number two you will not start the year on the team that is Matt brash the second guy we're going to talk about in the segment.

[00:18:18] 78 appearances the dude made last year he served as the bridge guy for the Mariners they leaned on him a lot didn't phase them put up an ERA just the tad over three over two wins above replacement by fan graphs which is one of the best numbers in baseball in terms of reliever war.

[00:18:36] And how much can you say about Matt brash obviously his slider is ridiculous he has a fastball that's extremely firm.

[00:18:43] But he's going to first off he's going to start the year on the injured list and the teams going to have to find a way to maneuver through it without although he is on the right path to get back.

[00:18:52] How do you replace that I mean how are you going to replace the combination of volume and stuff for the first month let's say month let's say he's out the first month safely.

[00:19:02] How do you replace that every time there was a fire at the end of a starters outing last year, brash the first guy in every single time it seemed like.

[00:19:11] And if he's not there for a month.

[00:19:14] That's a lot of appearances to replace it's literally every other game for the most part that you have to replace an appearance from that brash yeah it's not something you just snap your fingers and will be fine.

[00:19:26] No, when George Kirby would go six and a third not giving up a run or maybe giving up one run but he'd exit the game with a guy on base you know what happened that door and left center with swing open you hear fire man by little Wayne come on you see Matt brash run out.

[00:19:40] And you feel good about it because you know yeah nobody scoring here and usually nobody did because he shut it down you don't replace a Matt brash you're going to have to get by without them and they're going to be guys that are going to have to step up.

[00:19:52] But you don't replace a Matt brash that's why I was so nervous when the injury happened and yes like relievers can be very up and down year to year and you don't always know what you're going to get.

[00:20:02] And is a reliever as valuable as center field or a shortstop like no of course not objectively but it wasn't just any old reliever you were potentially losing.

[00:20:12] You can't just replace a Matt brash and for the first month you're not going to you're going to just have to rely on the guys that you do have to step up in those situations and have.

[00:20:22] Match ups be play play the match ups and have different guys come in in those situations to shut the door that you don't replace them.

[00:20:28] Like a fully healthy version of this bullpen we'll talk about Ryan Stanik in a little bit like Stanik seems like the guy that will take this role I think early on he's going to be the first first high levered situation out of the bullpen whether they be at the starter exits or it's from a start of an inning.

[00:20:46] Oh and then when Matt brash comes back Stanik will he might still come out first or brash might come out first depending on the day and depending on the reliability.

[00:20:55] Does Matt brash still pitch as much with a fully healthy bullpen does he still make 78 appearances in this knowing what we have with the Mariners have with the rest of this this bullpen.

[00:21:08] He shouldn't have to.

[00:21:09] I don't know if it was really good last year but especially this year he should not have to.

[00:21:13] No not 78 appearances and we're going to talk about some numbers with some of these other guys and reason why they should probably like you can rely on almost any one of these six regulars.

[00:21:24] To get the job done if you need to there are a lot of things I really liked about Matt brash was season last year like yeah he's filthy but there's you're going to hear some common themes when we're talking about the relievers and why they're successful no Matt brash did last year didn't give up home runs you know what else Matt brash didn't do last year.

[00:21:39] Walk as many guys as people thought he would for the first time in his career he had a walk rate under 10% at any level under 10% it was like 9.9 but still accounts under 10.

[00:21:49] That's pretty pretty remarkable for the kind of stuff he has when you can combine the fact that his slider moves a bajillion inches horizontally and he throws 100 miles an hour yet he's still able to throw it in the strikes on enough

[00:22:02] To be effective and even though he doesn't throw a sinker he somehow does not allow home runs somehow he throws as it's been described to us it's a flat hard fastball and usually flat hard fastballs get hit and hit pretty hard but he didn't give up give up any home runs last year.

[00:22:20] Well the guys just filthy I will say the straight fastball could be the one thing you kind of key in on with Matt brash and say okay if you were going to get even better than you already are what could you do that much better.

[00:22:34] I would say it's that like when you look at his fastball results they're not off the charts the run values usually slightly in the negative not that it's a bad pitch but it just like again it doesn't garner some of the results that

[00:22:49] other fastballs in this bullpen do or that the Matt brash slider does his slider obviously is his best pitch and you don't need us to tell you that but yeah I would say if he was going to take another jump this year.

[00:23:02] Well you can look at the command and you can look at the walks I just with the pure stuff that brash has I don't know if he's ever going to be a guy that's putting up a crazy low walk rate that just may not be who he is it's probably part of the reason

[00:23:14] he is no longer a starter but I would say if there's anything he could really hone in on to get even better than he already is and again we're nit picking here this is one of the best relievers in the sport.

[00:23:24] But if you're going to get even better I would say

[00:23:27] like you just can't wish upon a star and just have more life on your fastball so to speak but

[00:23:33] just a way to keep hitters a little more off balance with it because it would get hit sometimes it didn't get hit for home runs but the fastball would get hit if you're going to look for one area of improvement for Matt brash

[00:23:45] or he just see more of his cutter that would be good which is hearing about that cutter lot yeah I was going to say we kept hearing about that cutter last year but he barely threw it.

[00:23:53] So if he's not like you said you can't magically get more life on your fastball sometimes it just is who you are at your hand size at your release point at your delivery it's your height it's all these things.

[00:24:06] But what he can control is throwing his cutter a little bit more now as long as Matt brash keeps throwing 100 miles an hour with his forcing fastball I'm not totally sure the manner is going to be like okay Matt sorry it's still like sometimes gets hit hard so we're going to have you through your cutter more

[00:24:20] because the cutter is going to be a decent bit slower than that so if he's throwing 100 miles an hour they're going to keep having him throw his fastball and they're going to accept the fact that hitters would be sitting on his slider so much that when the fastball does come they'll just accidentally foul it off or something like that and his home run rate will stay low it's going to be really hard to replicate this home run output like almost impossible.

[00:24:44] Because it's just exceptionally low number but the more he throws his slider the better like just to put comparison we talked about Munoz and what he how often he threw his slider in 2022 brash threw at 14% less of the time as Munoz did in 2022 last year.

[00:25:04] They're different sliders I will say Munoz's slider doesn't move quite as much or just moves enough to get a swing and a miss brashes is a sweeper that sweeps more than any slider in baseball.

[00:25:15] A little bit less a little bit harder to throw his strike but it lost my turn of thought here but he still throws it like for as good of a pitch as it is you think you would throw it a little bit more and he could throw more if he feels like he needs to this year so there's still some

[00:25:33] room there yeah yeah there is but you know what when at the end of the day obviously like if he repeats what he did last year nobody's complaining about that we're simply just

[00:25:44] like looking at areas where he could improve because like that's what the point of this preview is here's what he did really well here's what he could still do a little bit better

[00:25:52] at the end of the day the most the most important thing with Matt brash is he is on the field healthy and he continues to be effective which if you've watched what he's done the last two years there's no reason he shouldn't be

[00:26:03] Another guy who might not be ready for opening day probably not ready for opening day now that he's been shut down for a couple weeks with a mild lat strain

[00:26:12] Gregory Santos acquired over the offseason in a trade with the white socks coming off a season where he appeared in 60 games

[00:26:18] and he earned a little bit above three and he throws hard man were we excited to see this guy get added

[00:26:25] to this mariners bullpen in 2024 with all their respect in the world to our guy Justin Topa friend of the pod

[00:26:33] the mariners brought Gregory Santos in the day at the day I believe it was about the day after they traded Justin

[00:26:39] Topa was it the day after it was like I was like three or so days after same week

[00:26:45] so within the within the same week that they trade Justin Topa away

[00:26:48] You could say they filled Justin Topa's role with Gregory Santos if not added a little bit more that that role could provide

[00:26:58] Just with what Santos like can do with his slider yeah like that sliders ridiculous

[00:27:06] Absolutely ridiculous like nobody hit it last year ever

[00:27:11] Like

[00:27:12] The guy

[00:27:14] You want to talk about sliders in this bullpen if Munoz is on top of his game with a slider and brash is on top of his game with a slider

[00:27:20] And Santos is on top of his game with a slider. We talk about this three headed monster

[00:27:24] That's a three headed monster that can just wipe guys out

[00:27:29] With sliders

[00:27:31] Like that's what stands out the most about Gregory Santos like obviously throws hard. He's an imposing reliever

[00:27:36] That slider is going to be what gives him all his success

[00:27:40] Do you want to have a stat that blows your mind?

[00:27:43] No, I'm ready. What do you think the stuff plus on braches slider is

[00:27:48] Oh, so I mean I look I'd look this up before the show too like I've stuffed plus down on my note

[00:27:53] So that's not this is not a fair comparison

[00:27:55] But I will let you inform the listeners that don't have stuff plus currently sitting right up on the computer what it is

[00:28:01] Okay, so the stuff plus on Matt braches

[00:28:04] Sliders 138 that means it's 38% better than a league average slider by movement or stuff how they qualify it

[00:28:12] Gregory Santos is 159

[00:28:16] Yeah

[00:28:17] The Matt braches slider which people call the best pitch of all time

[00:28:23] In baseball

[00:28:24] V best pitch ever of Matt braches slider and Gregory Santos's

[00:28:28] By the metrics of stuff plus

[00:28:31] blows it out of the water

[00:28:33] You know who it ranked behind last year I'll give you the list

[00:28:36] Ryan Presley a manual class A

[00:28:39] That's it

[00:28:40] Those two guys I'd say those two guys are pretty good relievers and those are the only guys who were said to have had better

[00:28:47] Pure stuff sliders than Gregory Santos like even more than Matt braches

[00:28:52] He threw 551 sliders and allowed one extra base hit all season

[00:28:59] Okay, that's

[00:29:01] The most bonkers thing he only had a 31% strikeout rate on that pitch and

[00:29:06] So like let me fill in some context here

[00:29:09] Like a truly elite strikeout pitch that should probably be like 50% you ever take that truly elite strikeout pitch

[00:29:16] That sliders should have a strikeout rate of 45 to 50% but for Gregory Santos it was only 31%

[00:29:24] And his his overall strikeout rate was only 22%

[00:29:28] With a pitch that good

[00:29:32] It should be way higher like it should be and that's what makes you excited about what the Mariners do with relievers of

[00:29:38] Really unlocking this pitch and

[00:29:41] Not maybe not unlocking the

[00:29:43] The the pitch itself and the delivery it will be where he throws it and when he throws it

[00:29:48] Which will be which is what the Mariners are really good at that's something to be really excited about

[00:29:54] Yeah, it is

[00:29:56] you know

[00:29:57] He really started to

[00:30:00] Use a second offering last year because like the slider is his pitch he uses it more than anything else like you said

[00:30:07] The other thing he started to throw as a sinker which he started to learn last year

[00:30:11] And if you just look at the results

[00:30:13] It will not allow you like his result on a sinker last year. We're not pretty that being said

[00:30:19] He had never thrown it before last year and it was like it was a work in progress all season

[00:30:25] now

[00:30:26] How much time he's had in the offseason to really refine it because we know he came into camp a little bit behind

[00:30:33] He was a bit injured to end the year

[00:30:35] We'll see

[00:30:36] But that being said you have another full

[00:30:39] Season to have a year two of using your sinker you would think he's gonna learn a lot from what he did in year one

[00:30:46] And can implement it in year two because again like like you're not going to throw the slider every single pitch

[00:30:51] He doesn't really throw the forcing fastball that much anymore like the sinker's going to be a secondary pitch

[00:30:55] So I'm very interested to see what that can look like in year two and even more so

[00:30:59] What it can look like when he gets healthy when he gets into the mariners pitching lab and what they can help him do with it

[00:31:05] I mentioned those heat maps earlier

[00:31:07] The heat map on its sinker is not fantastic. The red dot was right down the middle

[00:31:12] That's not really a good thing. There's probably reason why hitters hit 340 against that pitch last year

[00:31:18] Even though he was touching 100 the other thing that

[00:31:22] Kind of blew my mind

[00:31:23] He had more trouble against varieties than lefties last year, which should not be a thing with that slider

[00:31:29] Should be impossible for righties to have more success than lefties bit

[00:31:33] But they did by a pretty substantial amount that made me raise an eyebrow at that so

[00:31:40] The reverse splits are

[00:31:42] Interesting with Gregory Santos. I'll say that but with better slider usage. I would have to imagine that flips

[00:31:47] Yeah, you would think so and again like

[00:31:53] The other thing even getting past like the

[00:31:55] Like nerdy analytics here just time

[00:31:58] He like he hasn't thrown it very long

[00:32:01] He just started throwing it a year ago and I would bet you like we don't we don't have all the data in front of us

[00:32:07] Right like what the mariners have internally in their front office and in their database is so much more than what the general public can look at like

[00:32:14] More than baseball so far more than fan grabs everything

[00:32:17] I would bet you there is something about his sinker that they see and they say

[00:32:22] Yeah, we can fine tune this and we can help it be a really good pitch because if they thought Gregory Santos was only gonna have one pitch

[00:32:30] And nothing else was going to be effective like I don't think they would have traded for him

[00:32:34] I don't think they would have traded for a guy with one singular pitch and that

[00:32:39] Can't do much else. I bet you they see something in that sinker that says we will help him get better with this

[00:32:44] We will help him make that a really good pitch

[00:32:46] I agree

[00:32:48] All right next guy Ryan Stannick is that name ring a bell? Well, we just talked about him one short week ago on our podcast

[00:32:54] So I would hope it does

[00:32:56] But this is a guy that as we highlighted you should be very excited about this is a guy with a decorated careers or a lever had some great years in Tampa

[00:33:04] Had some phenomenal years

[00:33:05] In Houston

[00:33:07] Now he's a mariner when everybody's healthy. He's gonna be the fourth guy in this bullpen

[00:33:11] Which is pretty crazy to think about himself

[00:33:14] But this is a number four guy that can pitch like a number one reliever if he can find his old form

[00:33:20] I would say

[00:33:21] Yeah, I would say so too. So he's gonna serve a very important role

[00:33:25] He as we talked about with the in the brass checkman

[00:33:28] I think he's gonna at the beginning of the season. He's gonna occupy

[00:33:31] Brasius role. I think first guy to the bullpen when it matters the most

[00:33:35] What's he gonna do after that? Well, it's got service prefer him in the eighth inning Gregory Santos in the seventh inning

[00:33:41] How what part of the lineup do they want? Stanic in like it's gonna be

[00:33:46] I think there are gonna be a couple of factors of how they decide how to use them

[00:33:49] By the way, I thought we did a really good job of breaking down Ryan Stanic last week episode 110 our

[00:33:55] podcast with Goldie

[00:33:56] If you want a refresher on what we've talked about with Stanic

[00:34:01] Like we did a really good job that episode. So if you haven't already go back and listen to that one but

[00:34:07] There's gonna be a couple of factors with Stanic to determine where he pitches and when he pitches

[00:34:12] Is he gonna throw enough strikes? He's had problems in his career walking guys and also

[00:34:17] What's the home run's gonna look like as I touched on and last Wednesdays episode

[00:34:23] Ryan Stanics best season of his career came

[00:34:27] When he just didn't allow any home runs in 2022

[00:34:29] And that was because he had an extremely low home run to flyball race

[00:34:34] Well below league average like an outlier low something that's really hard to repeat and he's not a sinker baller

[00:34:39] By the way, so it's not something that you can just say oh well

[00:34:43] He throws a lot of sinker. So obviously didn't give up that many home runs. Well

[00:34:47] No, he just didn't he just didn't give up that many home runs

[00:34:49] So

[00:34:51] Is he gonna be able to manage that now? This would be the ballpark to do this

[00:34:54] This would be the division to do this

[00:34:56] It would be the situation where Ryan Stanic does not need to be the closer to have to worry about something like this

[00:35:02] But man, I'm fired up to watch this guy pitch because I really hated when he came came into faceless mariners all these years

[00:35:08] And now finally we get to root for that mullet coming out the back. I mean true reliever hair

[00:35:14] If we get the chance to talk to maybe one of the questions

[00:35:17] We'll have to ask him is which marinor he is most looking forward to not facing anymore because genuinely

[00:35:22] I'm curious there has to be somebody in this lineup who gave him

[00:35:26] Thits lots of look up the numbers against Ryan's line. Let me guess tie friends

[00:35:31] I actually I actually tie who at the walkoff double against him in 21. You remember yeah, yeah

[00:35:36] That was I was gonna say but you type rances high on that list

[00:35:39] But I am genuinely curious

[00:35:42] Anyway, so

[00:35:43] T.J.'s right we did a very full breakdown of Ryan Stanic a week ago

[00:35:47] If you want the very abbreviated recap here like here's a couple of highlight point

[00:35:51] or here's a couple of bullet points that tj hasn't

[00:35:54] That or aside from what tj just talked about he is very atypical for most mariners relievers because

[00:36:00] He can get a radic at times with his command. That's that's not typical for a marinor's reliever

[00:36:06] But he is a guy that when he is at his best

[00:36:11] Can be one of the best relievers in baseball

[00:36:13] We saw him start to dip some of his numbers down last year like some of his numbers started to kind of trend the wrong direction

[00:36:19] But as we know

[00:36:20] relievers can be very fickle from year to year so there's a very good chance

[00:36:24] Stanic to get into this bullpen and just figured out and turn back to is at least 2021 form if not 22 form the biggest thing

[00:36:31] I would say

[00:36:32] This is I think the biggest thing we highlighted with the Ryan Stanic thing last last week

[00:36:37] Watch for his slider and slider usage because his slider just by run value last year was not an effective pitch

[00:36:45] By stuff plus it's a ridiculous pitch like it's got crazy movement on it

[00:36:49] It just didn't get results

[00:36:51] Maybe it was being thrown in the wrong spot

[00:36:53] So I would say watch how much he uses his slider this year and see what the mariners can do with it

[00:36:58] I word of guess you were gonna see that slider play up in 2024

[00:37:03] I'm glad you mentioned the the location part because so we did we talked about that. We did really good detail that last week

[00:37:10] But I'm gonna bring up the heat map again

[00:37:13] The heat map like it tells the whole story he threw it everywhere like literally everywhere

[00:37:18] And that's not what you want like he legitimately threw

[00:37:21] Three quarters of the it covered nearly the entire plate and well outside of the plate too

[00:37:27] And that's that's not a good that's not a good usage weren't when it can go literally anywhere

[00:37:31] No, you want it dialed into one spot and one good spot only so there's a I'm glad

[00:37:37] I'm glad you brought that up. That is like that's the key because to be honest like he's known for

[00:37:42] Hundred-mile in our fastball in a splitter

[00:37:44] Not as hunt not as slider for the most part

[00:37:47] It is the splitter in the fastball they get the most love because those are the two pitches he throws the most

[00:37:52] Right don't sleep on a slider. Don't sleep on a slider

[00:37:56] Let's get to now the two lefties

[00:37:59] Gabe Spire coming off the best season of his career pitching his first full season in a mariners uniform last season

[00:38:06] Get some of these numbers live

[00:38:07] He pitched in 69 games, which is nice in of itself

[00:38:12] Of the year eight barely under three eight and think of some of these rate stats a

[00:38:17] 29% strikeout rate a 5.1% walk rate an expected year

[00:38:22] A lower than his actual year eight a ground ball rate of nearly 56

[00:38:27] Percent for someone who had yet to pitch full time in the big leagues to come to Seattle and do that is just

[00:38:34] Remarkable and he's our guy so it's all all that much better

[00:38:39] I was gonna say is anybody shocked to hear that we were probably most looking forward to this portion of the episode

[00:38:44] The part where we talk about the two lefties like shocker right big shocker

[00:38:49] We tweeted this out today

[00:38:51] So I'm gonna I'm gonna bring up this point here on the podcast for those of you who don't

[00:38:55] Staird our Twitter timeline all day and wait for us to tweet

[00:38:58] What if you do? I mean shout out to you guys you guys are awesome, but if you don't

[00:39:02] Let me rehash

[00:39:04] This stat I dug up yesterday this thing blew my mind

[00:39:09] I mentioned the rate stats. Let me let me rehash them again

[00:39:13] Hit a strikeout rate last year of 29.6% a walk rate of 5.1% and a ground ball rate of 55.9%

[00:39:22] Those are pretty good numbers pretty good lots of strikeouts no free passes and a lot of ground balls so less damage

[00:39:31] I

[00:39:32] Plugged those rate stats into fan graphs and I set the innings marker at 50

[00:39:38] And I went all the way back to

[00:39:40] 2002 when fan graphs started pitching started tracking bad at ball data

[00:39:45] Do you know how many left-handed pictures with at least 50 innings pitched struck out at least 29% of their batters

[00:39:52] Walk less than 5.5% and had a ground ball rate above 55%

[00:39:57] Do you want me to act and pretend as if we didn't talk about this before we started recording?

[00:40:02] And I wasn't the one who hit send on this tweet

[00:40:04] I think the way to phrase this is why don't you inform our awesome listeners how many there are

[00:40:10] Just one keeps fire. That's it

[00:40:13] Truly remarkable and you know what I'd be willing to bet he

[00:40:17] I'm be willing to bet he's the only lefty in history to do that

[00:40:20] I'm dead serious like think about that strikeout rates are as high as they've ever been right

[00:40:26] Now do you think there was a lefty that hit all those benchmarks who struck out 30% of the batters back in the day

[00:40:31] through at least like

[00:40:33] What if they were what are we talking about co facts?

[00:40:37] Yeah, gave spire and sandy co-facts

[00:40:40] Like two equal level pictures if you asked me

[00:40:44] Totally agree. I agree. I would agree

[00:40:46] Like games got the nickname little unit like of course him and sandy co-facts or

[00:40:51] Sit in hand and but I'm dead serious like who the hell is matching that and by the way if you go to all

[00:40:56] Handedness pictures. There's only one other. It's Ryan Presley in 2021

[00:41:00] He was unbelievable that year

[00:41:02] Those are the only two guys since they started

[00:41:04] Tracking bad at ball data did hit those benchmarks

[00:41:07] And I would I would be I'd be willing to say Gabe

[00:41:11] Gabe it might be on a mount rush more of lefties to do that ever

[00:41:16] Yeah

[00:41:17] Like obviously we're always gonna talk up Gabe because like as we do on this podcast

[00:41:22] He's our guy like he's awesome

[00:41:24] But I'm dead serious like like now getting into just actual baseball mode and talking about what he brings to the table as a pitcher

[00:41:31] Like how much can this guy even get better with here's what I highlighted

[00:41:35] He could get hit a little bit less hard in 2024

[00:41:38] That's about it

[00:41:39] Here's what this guy does as you mentioned. He strikes guys out. He doesn't walk anybody

[00:41:43] He gets ground balls and I would say it gets like you can take it even further than that

[00:41:48] Like you look at the guy's Savon page

[00:41:49] Like I used to talk about his chase rate all the time last year because it was in the

[00:41:54] 100

[00:41:56] Percentile of the league

[00:41:58] Like he gets a ton of chase on his pitches. He throws more first pitch strikes than anybody in the league

[00:42:03] Again, like we talked about his ability to avoid like to get a lot of ground balls

[00:42:09] He's got multiple pitches like he threw a fastball a sinker and a slider last year for the most part

[00:42:14] Now he's adding more pitches to his arsenal which most relievers don't have just a flurry of offering

[00:42:19] I'm really not sure how much more this guy can

[00:42:22] Continue to do to get even better. I think he just has to basically maintain what he's doing because like

[00:42:29] That is about as sustainable of a profile for relievers you can buy

[00:42:33] He's the ideal modern-day reliever

[00:42:36] Yeah, like he when when you sit down if you go to reliever class in school

[00:42:40] And I know you're a huge fan of schools

[00:42:42] You sit down and you get your notebook out you sit at the little desk right here and you're getting out and you're taking notes and

[00:42:47] And the teacher goes up on the chalkboard and draws okay

[00:42:51] I want the ideal modern-day reliever and they're gonna have three things

[00:42:55] They're gonna have a high strikeout rate

[00:42:57] They're gonna have a low walk rate and they're gonna have a high ground ball rate

[00:43:01] Therefore you don't give up a lot of fly balls won't give up a lot of homers

[00:43:04] You strike out a lot of guys and you don't give up free passes

[00:43:07] What more can you ask from a reliever? He is a unicorn

[00:43:12] He's literally a unicorn man. He has the fucking horn on his head

[00:43:16] That's his nickname now if you want to new one this year. I'm gonna call him the unicorn

[00:43:21] That's great. I'll let I'll let you yeah when you go to the field opening day let me know I told him the that's his new name

[00:43:29] There we go. Is it is it unicorn or little unicorn?

[00:43:32] Just no he's just eight unicorn. He's a full-size unicorn unicorn. Okay, dude

[00:43:37] I was gonna say if this is the shit they were talking about in class when I was in school back in the day

[00:43:41] I would have been the fucking valedictorian a lake Washington high school

[00:43:44] Instead when we were when we were sitting in the middle of history class and

[00:43:49] I was on my school computer just ripping off mock fantasy baseball draft after mock fantasy baseball draft

[00:43:57] And was not the valedictorian. Oh, maybe this is why they should have found more interesting subjects like

[00:44:02] Gabe Spire's walk rate ground ball rate and Shrek out rate

[00:44:06] If you went to school like a hundred years from now if you were in history class and they're in the sports section

[00:44:11] They'd have to talk about game no one's done what he's done. That's historical

[00:44:15] Huh, I say put it. I'll say put it in textbooks if you ask me

[00:44:19] Oh, I'll say but yeah, that rings we're gonna call him the unicorn from now on

[00:44:23] That's what that's what he is. We'll see it. We'll see if it sticks

[00:44:26] Okay, do or can you have two nicknames because like high key. I like the little unit a lot

[00:44:31] He can yeah, he can switch off okay

[00:44:34] I mean one of them he is a small version of it one. He's a full-size

[00:44:40] That's true

[00:44:41] Like in all seriousness again here

[00:44:44] In the short time between when they traded Justin Topa and when they added Gregory Santos

[00:44:50] Like there's a reason when Jared Topo talked about all this he said

[00:44:54] Yeah, we're perfectly comfortable having Gabe Spire throw and leverage its situations like

[00:45:00] This is before they added Santos and

[00:45:03] This is when the bullpen look like it was gonna be brash moonyos and then for a while

[00:45:07] Gabe would be the third guy

[00:45:08] But there is a reason Jared Topo said yes

[00:45:12] Gabe Spire will throw and leverage its situations his profile

[00:45:16] Back up the idea that he can do it and he's right and to be totally honest with you

[00:45:20] Gamespire still gonna throw in leverage says you situations this year because there's gonna be points during the year where

[00:45:26] Brasch is unavailable or Santos is unavailable especially actually here early during the year

[00:45:32] He's gonna be throwing in high leverage big time like there's gonna be moonyos

[00:45:35] Stannic and you're gonna see Spire throwing high leverage honestly

[00:45:40] Well, it's interesting. I was gonna say can we see Gabe be the leverage guy a little bit more over or the bridge guy over

[00:45:46] Stannic I guess it depends on what the lefty matchups look like that night because what he is great at obviously is getting left

[00:45:51] He's out amongst a lot of things so I guess it depends

[00:45:54] But anyway point being as I stop rambling here you will see Gabe Spire even with a fully healthy bullpen throw and leverage this year like you will

[00:46:03] That's our guy right there that yes are

[00:46:06] come

[00:46:08] Well, we've got another one to piggyback off of with that. Oh yeah

[00:46:12] Let's follow the north star here to our final

[00:46:15] Contested of the bullpen breathing. You know as they always say like they always say relievers are the really good personalities on a baseball team

[00:46:22] Not that there's not other good personalities

[00:46:24] Of course there is especially on this mariner's team

[00:46:26] But not only do they like isn't a kind of general consensus that that's the case with relievers

[00:46:32] They often say with lefty relievers. That's the case and well

[00:46:35] I would say that plays right into our narrative with with these two

[00:46:39] So let's get to sauce here with Taylor sauce say no and to try to hone it in here

[00:46:45] When he's not

[00:46:46] Teenage already laughing. I will say when he's not busy talking about following the north star home and

[00:46:53] Babe Ruth being fake and taking Josh Rojas

[00:46:56] 475 feet up to the 10 volume sign like when you put all that aside

[00:47:01] With the awesome personality the Taylor sauce. They know is this is

[00:47:05] Genuinely a very very good reliever. This is a guy who put up a three five 90 R a last year

[00:47:11] They lean on him heavily made over 50 appearances

[00:47:14] He gets a ton of ground balls similar to how Gabe Spire does and he doesn't get hit hard like I'm like

[00:47:21] The one thing with sauce is he does walk more guys than Spire does but this is again a profile of a very

[00:47:29] Very solid reliever that does a lot of things well that plan of open

[00:47:34] And he's

[00:47:35] He's not like average in any sense

[00:47:38] Just think about like think about how he throws

[00:47:41] Think about his pitch profile. He is so unique

[00:47:44] He's such a different look than everyone else the Mariners having this bullpen coming out

[00:47:49] And he still throws pretty hard that makes it like pretty tough

[00:47:52] Could you imagine like you come in and you face Stanic the first time through the bullpen and they he you know

[00:47:57] He's buzzing 100 out by your nose and

[00:48:01] He's throwing a splitter and you have to keep track of that and you're like oh

[00:48:04] Scrambled your brain is scrambled then you go back out there the second time

[00:48:07] And there's this lefty up there who's what six five he throws like all the way down here

[00:48:15] When he throws it like he said it's

[00:48:18] Over the ball not under the ball

[00:48:21] Don't go check our social media pages. You don't get that reference

[00:48:25] But I'll say I'll go check the latest the Sausage opposed yeah as I'll say I'll double up with TJ here one more time

[00:48:30] It's over the ball ball who's not under the ball not under the ball

[00:48:34] But he's like coming at you with sinkers and sliders coming out of this just funky arm slot. It's hard to hit

[00:48:41] Like it's it's truly a different look in or really it makes him so effective

[00:48:46] He can get some extension on that and gets just a lot of ground balls

[00:48:49] He he lifts up to the profile of just not giving up hard contact and like when it is hard contact

[00:48:55] It's pounded right into the dirt

[00:48:56] It's hard to score on guys like that because you got a string more hits together

[00:48:59] You got to string more opportunities together, and that's not very easy

[00:49:03] No, it's not

[00:49:04] It's not and the sinker did wonders for him last year. That was his best pitch

[00:49:09] You know, it's funny

[00:49:10] Maybe this is a product of a small sample size his curveball actually garnered some good results last

[00:49:16] He didn't throw it very much

[00:49:18] I don't know if that's a pinch that they'll want him to throw more moving forward or not

[00:49:21] But just in the short sample size he threw it like you guys didn't really hit it

[00:49:25] I don't know if that's something he'll throw more but I was just kind of looking at that saying oh that's interesting

[00:49:29] Something I wonder with both Spire and Sausage what they get they have so much so much

[00:49:33] Groundball contact that they give up and that they rely on to get outs

[00:49:37] With this Mariners defense this year

[00:49:39] These two could be the ones affected by it the most if the Mariners do have a step back in defense because Jorge Polanco

[00:49:45] Not created as a plus

[00:49:47] Defender the Mariners third base platoon does not grade

[00:49:51] The same as aohenios war as does first base is graded about average

[00:49:55] And then jp Crawford we've detailed his struggles that shortstop especially going to his right

[00:49:59] How are these guys how is there numbers going to reflect

[00:50:05] Like similar or will they take a step back because of the amount of balls that can put in play on the ground and

[00:50:12] Not as good defense behind them so sauce for example out of 197 average on ground balls last year against him

[00:50:17] Which is really good by the way does that number creep up?

[00:50:20] What if that number creeps up the 240 because the Mariners just have less range in their infield

[00:50:24] Unless ability to get outs on grounders like that

[00:50:28] Well, then he'd be a proponent of some bad luck because like all the expected data would still say oh

[00:50:33] He's doing what he's supposed to do

[00:50:35] but if

[00:50:36] The defense is not up to the same level that it was a year ago then it is possible. I would say

[00:50:43] I would say it was it would affect sauce a little bit more than it could give fire because spire strikes a little bit

[00:50:50] Spire strikes more guys out like that's the big thing like I like

[00:50:54] Not that they both wouldn't be affected in some way

[00:50:58] But like gave strike out right. Obviously as we just talked about is ballooned up a little bit more

[00:51:03] So yeah, it'll be interesting

[00:51:04] Hopefully we're just totally wrong about this Mariners defense parry hills work with them

[00:51:08] Jorge Polanco takes a step forward the third base platoon can be at least average over there and

[00:51:13] It helps the pitching out a lot because with ground ball guys like sauce and spire

[00:51:19] And with somebody like George Kirby too when you look at the rotation who gets a lot of ground balls like

[00:51:23] It would be very beneficial to have a defense that can really play well behind these guys

[00:51:27] so hopefully they do but

[00:51:30] No matter like no matter what the case is with the defense

[00:51:33] Sof's had a great year last year and his profile says he should have another very good year this year

[00:51:38] Like that's what's that's what's pretty crazy about the first six guys we've outlined

[00:51:42] And these are gonna be the main six guys in the ballpan or so we believe at least entering the year

[00:51:47] That

[00:51:48] Like all of their profiles say it's sustainable now you never know what's gonna happen

[00:51:53] You can't like you can't lock anything in right like baseball is unpredictable things could happen

[00:51:58] But when you look at all the data it says

[00:52:01] These guys should carry this over and that's what's pretty incredible

[00:52:04] There's other ball pens with guys who had good years

[00:52:06] There's a lot of data that says are they gonna take a step back

[00:52:10] With these guys with these six it says they should keep going

[00:52:14] Another remark will think like

[00:52:16] Sausage's first full big league season

[00:52:19] Yeah, so like we're talking about that in a sense of

[00:52:22] Oh, that was only his first full big league season like what is he gonna do to get better next year

[00:52:28] It's fun to think about very fun to think about

[00:52:31] Maybe it start with giving him a bat to let him hit

[00:52:34] I think they should let him hit if there is one pitcher

[00:52:37] They're gonna let hit it should it should be Sausage

[00:52:40] Like yeah, I to be honest. I can't think of anyone else that rather see swing

[00:52:44] Like

[00:52:45] We can talk about Bryce Miller like I'll give him like the fact is swings and batting practice in the miners looked pretty solid or

[00:52:50] If you want to go back to Marko Gonzalez last year like he obviously hit in college

[00:52:54] But if you're talking about to blow out one way or another

[00:52:57] And just for like shits and gigs you're gonna let a pitcher go up there and hit like that too

[00:53:01] It has to be like if we're talking from a content perspective for people on twitter for people sitting at home for the two of us like

[00:53:09] No, it has to be Sausage because either he's somehow gonna get hit

[00:53:12] And we'll never for the rest of time here the end of it or like

[00:53:17] Cal said I guess this I guess this part of our

[00:53:20] Social media interview with them hasn't come out yet. It will at some point, but as Cal said

[00:53:24] If he starts seeing spin he's done and Sausage just like flails out at a slider and looks ridiculous

[00:53:30] Well then that's gonna be content for us too

[00:53:33] So yeah if there's gonna be one pitcher that hits

[00:53:37] My votes my votes going to him

[00:53:39] Let's wrap this up and

[00:53:42] And in touch on the guys who are right on the edges of this bullpen right on the margins

[00:53:47] Are there anyone anyone's you necessarily want to highlight it seems if I were to guess

[00:53:52] That Tyson Miller has a really good shot to make this bullpen that Cody Bolton has a really good chance to make this bullpen

[00:53:59] And then Trent Thornton would also be a guy who's well in the mix for that. They're gonna

[00:54:05] Am I forget I don't I think I'm guessing Carlos Vargas from what I were what Shen and Draer was talking about earlier this week

[00:54:12] It sounds like the manners would prefer he's starting the minor league so he can work out his

[00:54:17] Control and throw more strikes. So that's why I'm not really putting him on that list

[00:54:23] Because I think if they have the options they will put him in the minor leagues at least from what I've heard

[00:54:28] So any of those stick out to you

[00:54:32] Well, I think Thornton's one absolutely gonna be in with the injuries

[00:54:36] But to be honest with you even if brash and santo's were healthy

[00:54:40] I think Thornton would be in there no matter what to be honest with you

[00:54:42] If there were no injuries

[00:54:43] I think this bullpen would be already set for opening day

[00:54:46] I think it'd be the six guys we outlined it'd be Thornton and it'd be Austin both to have a longer lever

[00:54:51] Because like it's it's kind of easy to forget with Trent Thornton right because they're we like the first six guys were so good last year

[00:54:58] And there's so much firepower at the top end of this bullpen

[00:55:01] Trent Thornton had a 201 ERA last year

[00:55:05] Like 201 and he actually has some decent stuff like I like what he brings to the table. So

[00:55:12] Again, at least to start the year

[00:55:15] I would say even if this bullpen was fully healthy he'd absolutely be in there

[00:55:18] And I think he is for sure going to be in there with the injuries

[00:55:22] So like I almost put Thornton into different category

[00:55:25] I think he proved it up last year to warrant his spot to start the year and then it's everybody else you're looking at

[00:55:31] That's yeah, that's a good point

[00:55:33] There are a couple like Paul Seawold types though

[00:55:36] At this group Tyson Miller's one of them

[00:55:38] He legitimately looks like Paul Seawold

[00:55:40] Like I think dude were we watching him throw

[00:55:42] He was starting a bullpen right?

[00:55:44] Yeah, and he looks just like Seawold

[00:55:46] And that's exactly what Scott serve has said

[00:55:49] He said like he is very much of the Seawold breed

[00:55:52] Like the like his release point and the arm angle and everything

[00:55:56] Like it reminds him a lot of Paul Seawold

[00:55:59] And guess what Tyson Miller hasn't let up a run this spring. He's been really good

[00:56:04] And I think he used the same comp for Cody Bolton too

[00:56:06] I think he's also out of the the Seawold mold

[00:56:09] Pretty sure

[00:56:11] So have

[00:56:13] Have we figured out what the second rider bucket is like him

[00:56:16] Like I hear that talk on Twitter like there's some reference point for it

[00:56:20] So the second rider bucket is essentially

[00:56:23] Essentially they're referencing like this current

[00:56:26] Like iteration of the bullpen of how they've

[00:56:28] gotten relievers out of guys who haven't been that successful in the big leagues before

[00:56:33] And Drew second rider is what Scott service likes to use as the best example of that

[00:56:37] Because stack was a one year like he was really good for one season

[00:56:41] Right pick him up like unknown guy

[00:56:44] Plugged into the system works out really well

[00:56:46] And he's a guy they bring into camp without much expectations

[00:56:50] Just want to see what you have work with your stuff a little bit and all of a sudden it turns out well

[00:56:53] And you can pick relievers year after year after year after year that that has been successful for the Mariners

[00:56:58] Seawold and stacker rider I think were like the two poster childs of that to start off in 2021

[00:57:05] So I figured that's what the definition was. I'm just so why is it stuck in rider like wouldn't Seawold make the most sense for that?

[00:57:11] Because like he like Seawold carried it over

[00:57:14] Stacker rider was only good one year

[00:57:16] Maybe because it's only he was only good one year

[00:57:19] Maybe that's what they mean. Okay

[00:57:21] Anyway, we're getting sidetracked

[00:57:23] It looks like so for where the bullpen sits for opening day

[00:57:27] I think it is very safe to say that the guys with secure spots are moonyo's

[00:57:31] Stannic sauce spire

[00:57:33] Trent Thornton Austin both

[00:57:36] And then it's two spots that are up for grabs now if you're right

[00:57:40] That

[00:57:42] Starting in the Carlos Vargas will start the year in triple A

[00:57:45] Then you look at

[00:57:47] Tyson Miller and Cody Bolton right yeah, that's that's what it feels like

[00:57:51] It feels like those those two guys are probably are in their spot

[00:57:54] Right. That's what it sounds like and then depending on how many strikes Vargas throws

[00:57:58] He could be up if brash or santa does it taking longer to get back

[00:58:02] And I'll say this too like

[00:58:05] Tyson Miller and Cody Bolton they're going to have their opportunity here with

[00:58:08] With brash and santa's down when those guys get healthy it is

[00:58:12] Non-negotiable, but they're getting back into the bullpen obviously

[00:58:16] But Miller and Bolton have a chance to prove themselves in the first couple weeks to stick around and to earn their spot

[00:58:22] If they're pitching flawlessly

[00:58:25] They'll stick around if like if they if they really get out of the gates hot

[00:58:29] And and they're not giving up runs

[00:58:32] They're not going to get moved down. They'll stay so it's it's an audition for them these first few weeks

[00:58:37] And just remember what this was like for spire and sasato last year as well

[00:58:41] So like in terms of in topa how they had to prove themselves and they did and they continued to pitch well and that happened like

[00:58:47] We talked to spire and sasato when we were down in puria

[00:58:51] And like joked with them a couple times like so man

[00:58:54] It's got to be so relaxing this year right compared to last year and and spire

[00:58:59] Just known to us like it's like man like I gave up a couple runs last yesterday, but I felt good

[00:59:04] So it's like you know, I'm chill like I'm chilling right now

[00:59:06] But he's like if this was last year. It's like I'd be pissed right now that I did that because you got

[00:59:11] I'm trying to make the team right now spire has made the team and now sasato has made the team

[00:59:15] And I'll imagine those guys Tyson Miller and Cody Bolton sort of feel that way

[00:59:20] If they were to have a poor spring training outing

[00:59:22] But see what one season can do for them

[00:59:24] They could all of a sudden find themselves as established

[00:59:27] It'll be interesting like it'll be interesting to see where those guys get plugged and played in bullpen situations

[00:59:33] When the season begins obviously they'll be toward the back end because they're the least proven of the group

[00:59:37] but

[00:59:38] Very very interesting duo of guys that have some opportunity to be good

[00:59:43] And we'll see what they do in the month of April because again, it's going to be an audition for them

[00:59:47] And I'm interested to see

[00:59:50] Yeah, it'll be good. I think that about covers our bullpen

[00:59:53] We yeah, I think we covered yeah, we talked about everybody

[00:59:57] Obviously there's guys in the miners that will get their chances when the season

[01:00:01] Comes about because obviously like the bullpen that starts the year just like a roster as a whole is never the one that finishes

[01:00:07] You'll see guys get changed around a little bit there could be injuries

[01:00:10] There could be guys just pitching well in the miners. Yeah, I'll be interested to see who else

[01:00:13] Who else gets their chances this year? Yeah, we'll

[01:00:16] You never know you never know like the Mariners just think about it this way the Mariners bullpen for each of the last three seasons

[01:00:22] It has not looked at the same on opening day as it did at the end of the season

[01:00:26] Never usually there's of like two or three pictures worth of turnaround that go from oh like established

[01:00:34] Opening day versus establish yeah, we're making a run of the postseason

[01:00:37] This is who we want on the roster

[01:00:40] Yeah, yeah, it'll be interesting to watch but we know this is their strength

[01:00:43] It's been their strength the last three years. It looks like it's gonna be their strength for the fourth year in a row

[01:00:47] I can't wait to watch all these guys get back up back up on the mound this year so

[01:00:52] There's our previews. There's our major league previews

[01:00:55] We should say as we talked about on

[01:00:58] Yeah, on Fridays episode for this upcoming Friday

[01:01:01] We'll do our minor league preview or Jim Callis back on returning guests second year in a row to help us do our minor league preview

[01:01:08] Best in the biz. We're excited about it where we can't wait to have him back on

[01:01:12] So hopefully you'll tune in for that that'll be a fun show Friday because there is like

[01:01:17] There is a flurry of guys to talk about like this farm system is a bunch of fun

[01:01:22] And there's guys you're gonna they're gonna take some steps this year

[01:01:25] So we'll break it all down with Jim net

[01:01:28] For now that'll wrap it up for this edition of the marine layer podcast

[01:01:33] You guys know the drill if you want to listen to the full form podcast

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[01:01:58] That's TJ. I'm Lyle as always. We thank you guys for tuning in talk to you soon

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