Episode 113: Jim Callis (MLB Pipeline) - Minor League Preview

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number one 13 of the Marine Layer Podcast. It's our minor league preview episode. We welcome on M.O.B. Pipelines Jim Callis to preview the Mariners 2024 minor league season will close out the show with Speak Your Mind.

[00:00:30] We welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network recording here on Wednesday March 20th some breaking news.

[00:01:00] Coming out right before this episode and we have to get right to it. Is show Hey O'Tonney about to be a Mariner again? Is it going to happen?

[00:01:08] Oh, people are going to be so pissed off at us on social media. You all thought we were done talking about show Hey to the Mariners didn't you? Well no, we're back because guess what? This man's going to opt out of his contract with the clause and he's going to say,

[00:01:24] I like that pitching staff in Seattle. I like that guy that plays center field. The Dodgers all of a sudden just weren't for me. Were they? I'm going to have a change apart.

[00:01:34] Yeah, I'm getting it for us but what's the music story? You know, major league baseball really needed a story like this. So in case you missed it, show Hey's trainer, sorry, his trainer, his interpreter, E.P. got fired for allegedly going let four and a half million dollars in debt to an illegal party.

[00:01:53] That to an illegal bookie gambling and apparently he was, he pay was just a dog shit gambler and he just kept losing and losing and losing and show Hey kept loaning a money to try and win his money back. And he never did so the Dodgers just fired him today and wow, what a story out of all of the people in major league baseball to get caught up in a gambling scandal.

[00:02:15] Show Hey was at the bottom of the list.

[00:02:18] Well, and again, show Hey's not really caught up in a gambling scandal. It's just the guy that is his interpreter that's caught up in it.

[00:02:25] I will say we say he's not but that's his money.

[00:02:29] Well, I guess look, this story came out what two hours ago. We don't have enough details to like firmly say anything other than he's going to be a mariner of course because he's going to opt out of his contract.

[00:02:41] But but yeah, with the actual story like we don't really know yet. I would be very shocked if he really did anything wrong and if you forget there's a clause in his contract where if there is a change of select personnel within the Dodgers organization, including E.P.

[00:02:57] He can opt out of his contract the whole thing.

[00:03:00] Okay, I will say I don't know if within the clauses of that contract. E.P. is actually included on guessing that means Andrew Friedman and the top people in the front office for the Dodgers is what it probably means just so he avoids any chance of having another angel situation but hey, I don't know the exact terms.

[00:03:19] I mean, no, actually, I shouldn't say that. I'm pretty sure E.P. is not included in this but can we speculate just for fun to say you know what he's going to go be a mariner in 2025. Sure.

[00:03:30] I'll tell you what like like you want to bring back some great ruthless replies segments. Let's start talking about that all the time all the time all of a sudden because so many of the comments that were just gold on a ruthless reply segment where people getting so mad that we were trying to will show hate a Seattle into existence.

[00:03:47] So let's bring it back. I will give Twitter credit. These are the days that Twitter is built for. I've been very entertained. Yeah, like there was one of saying like like E.P. seeing hobby buyers over under one and a half strikeouts or whatever.

[00:04:03] And he's like it's mattress Mac like walking up to the casino and just like shoving all his money at the guy running the.

[00:04:12] I mean, not a bookie but what is it the guy the casino?

[00:04:15] The teller. The teller. Oh, the dealer at the table is a dealer. Sorry. No, it wasn't the tape. It wasn't like it wasn't a poker table. Yeah, like casino teller. That's who walks up the teller and like pushes all his money out of her.

[00:04:27] There was there was another again, like I'm guessing in all seriousness. Show hate and do anything wrong but there was one saying like E.P. sitting in the stands at Dodgers Games this year as he takes the fall for show Hey O'Tani

[00:04:42] and it's a it's a video Frank the tank just losing his mind. At a Meta Metz games.

[00:04:49] Like you're right. These are the days Twitter is built for these are the days where like these are the days where people go online and are like yeah, this is why I have this app.

[00:05:02] I will say for as much as Major League baseball shot itself in the foot all offseason by being boring and dragged along by one Scott Boris.

[00:05:10] This has been a really nice touch to end the offseason get us back into the regular season.

[00:05:15] I will say like again, obviously in all seriousness like if this is affecting show Hey, obviously we feel very bad about it. Again, I'm guessing he did not do any wrong here.

[00:05:28] I'm sure it sucks for him that one of his closest friends won't be at his side anymore. So that part like again, of course like from a just a basic standpoint feel bad but if you're just talking about memes on Twitter

[00:05:42] like people have been online today. That's for sure. Like people are talking about Major League baseball. I was sudden if you want to look at it from that angle.

[00:05:50] I just have one last thing to say on this whole situation 1 800 gambler. They make it pretty easy.

[00:05:59] Well, this is see this is why this is why when TJ decides to bet he puts down $2 wages on like the national champion or a max hallway or like in 2019 for the national title Clemson LSU.

[00:06:19] We had like the Clemson over and this dude screamed at the top of his lungs when T Higgins got an off into passing or feelings called again. Some because TJ didn't win his $3.50 that he tried to bet on.

[00:06:31] And everybody in the apartment look at him screaming and we're like, well you lost $2.

[00:06:38] I will say I do have I feel like I have a lot of those gambling hotline numbers memorized. You know after every single gambling commercial you have to hear those every single one and there's a lot of them now.

[00:06:49] So I have the memorize I'm shocked e-pay didn't have his gambling hotline numbers memorized because maybe he could have gotten some help 4 1 1 2 half million how do you lose 4 1 1 1 2 1 $1.

[00:06:59] How do you do that? How like it just keeps going and going and going and going and you see more and more debt like maybe I should stop no I know.

[00:07:10] And I feel like he lived the life to like think about if you got to do everything a big leader would do like travel on private planes and stay in super nice hotels and go to ball parks and

[00:07:20] like have big league food all that stuff except he didn't have to go through the crazy workouts the big leaders were going through the grind of a 162 game season his job was basically hang out with show and when show

[00:07:31] Hey needs an interpreter he does his job and he interprets for show. Hey but like that was the extent of it like I don't know how in the world this was worth losing your career over what's remarkable like we think about how much e-pay lost like Phil

[00:07:46] make us in lost 10 times that much money. Yeah that well that he doesn't have the live tour to bail him out I was going to say Phil make us a mix a little bit more money than then e-pay does just a little bit anyway we talked about that for probably long enough this show is our Mariner's minor league preview even though

[00:08:07] that was very much in the news today so our Mariner's minor league preview show for that we were thankful enough to get Jim Callison again with us for the second year in a row to help preview the guys with us we ripped through the top eight or so in the Mariner's MLB pipeline top 30 and then we talked about a couple other guys too

[00:08:27] we're very interested in that Jim had some very high things are very good things to say about I would say the biggest takeaway I had from our conversation is Jim Callison seems to be very high on Colt Emerson.

[00:08:38] Yeah very high in cold Emerson the potential that Colt Emerson could be the number one prospect in the or whether you work could be it'll be like it's got the feeling that it's going to be him and Cole at that point the two short stops the two guys playing up the middle the two guys with a really good hit tools

[00:08:55] you know it sounded like he was leaning a little bit and I can't see him that surprise like they both got a lot of time playing and you know there's a lot of other interesting notes there given some perspective on the two young Dominican guys and Lass and and Felne and some of these other guys as well so it's it's going to be a very exciting minor league season.

[00:09:16] Yes it is now before we get to that interview we want to take a quick pause for just a minute we're going to talk to you about our friends over at Pagotches pub 85 that's over in Carclin you're going to keep your assay in it.

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[00:10:05] All right let's get to our interview with Jim callus.

[00:10:07] All right we welcome on Jim callus now recurring guests senior writer for MLB pipeline here to help us do our mariners minor league show and our prospect breakdown here for 2024.

[00:10:21] Jim we appreciate you coming on we're excited to have you back on from afar I think the way we look at this system is we say look it's a very young system but there's a lot of reasons to be very very excited

[00:10:33] and you guys a pipeline having ranked 18 is that about a fair assessment what we're kind of looking at for these guys.

[00:10:41] Yeah I mean I think they're on the upswing I mean they've obviously promoted so many guys to Seattle like if you look at the quality players they've promoted to Seattle in the last few years I mean these things kind of run in cycles where you build your system up.

[00:10:55] Yeah like I thought I want to say two years ago this time I think we had a rank number two and you know then they promoted Julio Gilbert Kirby and you know Kellan I cast pan out as expected but like a lot of big names so they're kind of replenishing and I do think.

[00:11:10] They're 18 but I'd say they have potential to move up a lot because as you pointed out you know most of the guys in their system you know like just looking at our list you know I don't think.

[00:11:21] Like I'm looking at our list now like you get down the Tyler Locklear we do kind of unofficial ETA is one these guys might first surface in the big leagues and yet to get down to the number eight prospect which is Tyler Locklear on our list that Jonathan Mayo did with Daniel Kramer to find a guy who's who's going to get to the big leagues this year and I don't think he might not graduate this year so I think when we look at the farm system a year from now you're going to see almost all these guys are still going to be in the farm system right in the big leagues.

[00:11:49] You know they're young hopefully they're getting better they're going to add guys from the draft you never know Jerry can make trades maybe don't trace come these guys but I do think that this is like if I'm a value in where they're going to be a year from now I bet they're close a lot closer to say 10 then they are to where they are right now.

[00:12:05] And the difference between a system like the Mariners and the system like the Orioles is the Orioles have their prospect list has a lot of older prospects two very position player heavy top tens but I was picking at the Orioles one when looking at the Mariners.

[00:12:18] One's the Mariners like three to seven and then Locklear is eight all teenagers and then you have a 21 and a 20 year old at the in the top two spots.

[00:12:27] The Orioles outside of Jackson holiday it is it's it's a bunch of older prospects ready to go for the big leagues and hence why they're I would say a little bit higher is that a more affair assessment.

[00:12:39] I mean I think we're looking at talent to and like you're talking with their guys you know your your Kobe Mayo and your Heston Kersteads and your Colton Calzars these are guys who performed all the way up through triple A so it's not so much that they're older.

[00:12:52] I think those guys have like a lot of tools you know Samuel but Sio is a younger guy.

[00:12:57] He might be in the top five when this year's over so most of the guys on the top of our top 100 are probably going to graduate this year.

[00:13:05] But I think it's that those guys have proven themselves against higher levels like like I gave you the glass half full on the Mariners the glass have empty on the Mariners would be that basically none of their top seven prospects is played above high a and only two of them have played in high a so they still have it like while they're young and you can really dream on them.

[00:13:25] They also have a lot to prove as well. But I do like their guys I mean I am very bullish on those guys and I think they will prove that they're good prospects they just have less track record than the Warriors.

[00:13:38] So we're going to start to jump into some of the Mariners guys like let's just start right at the top with Cole Young who first off had an unreal spring in Big Lee camp like he didn't look phased for the most part at all by big Lee pitching when he was in there.

[00:13:50] Like this is the number one prospect her pipeline guy that has a great hit tool doesn't strike out much walks a lot like is it I had an like maybe this is a fantasy but I said if Cole Young has a huge year assuming he starts in double A there's an outside chance that the Mariners are performing at the end of 2024 you could see him on the big Lee roster come like back into September like is that too aggressive or is that is that about right.

[00:14:17] I don't think it's too aggressive. I'd say that's more a possibility than a likelihood but hitters hit and Cole Young is just pure hitter. I think he's going to hit everywhere he goes.

[00:14:29] And like I think if you work called out like I think his back to ball skills are advanced enough that he wouldn't be an over his head. I mean, I think the two questions.

[00:14:37] We're still trying to figure out on Cole Young and look he is only 20 years old. He was drafted like like less than two years ago at a high school is one like like look we know he can hit like I don't think there's any question about that.

[00:14:50] And he's got solid speed. I think the questions with him are one.

[00:14:56] How much power is it going to be are we talking 12 to 15 are we talking 20 plus home runs per season and then two is he shortstop or is he a second based.

[00:15:07] And I think the jury's still on both of those.

[00:15:10] You know, and I think that you know obviously if we're talking that you know he's the hitter he is and he's a 20 home run guy and he's a shortstop then he's one of best prospects in baseball.

[00:15:20] And if he's more 15 home run guy and he's a second baseman and he's still very good hitter he's still a very good prospect.

[00:15:26] We wouldn't be like way up towards top of the top 100. So I think you know and again he's still 20.

[00:15:32] So he won't be 21 until the end of July.

[00:15:36] There's still time for him to develop and grow and get physically stronger.

[00:15:40] So I think we'll get more answers to those questions this year.

[00:15:43] But yeah, I do think the bat is gifted enough that if the if the marriage weren't contentioned and they had an ead and he has a year I expect he'll have then yeah, I could see him getting shot and see out by the end of the year.

[00:15:54] Has he filled out at the plate as expected when he was for his profile when he was drafted?

[00:16:01] Um, I guess I mean I'll be honest. I didn't get the pure the spring so I haven't seen what I don't know what he looks like this spring.

[00:16:08] I mean, I don't think he's I mean he's like six feet tall, you know, 5 11 6 feet tall. So I don't think we were thought he was going to be like a 220 pounder.

[00:16:15] Like if you look at him, I mean just video from last year, he doesn't look skinny.

[00:16:19] I think he has a lot of strength. I mean, I don't think he ever was going to be a slugger.

[00:16:23] It's just but I mean that's a question with all these guys is exactly how much powered you know, like you could say the same thing.

[00:16:29] He's in the same boat as Jackson holiday but same thing with Jackson holiday. Are we talking 20 home or power?

[00:16:35] Are we talking 30 home or power like these guys are so young you just don't have quite a feel for how much power they're going to have.

[00:16:42] Like most of these guys were gifted young hitters, the power does come last.

[00:16:46] But then there's also guys like like the cautionary tale like I mean this is going to take me back for years, but Sean burrows like it was great pure hitter and like the power never came and he didn't have a big

[00:16:56] career we thought it was going to have. And I'm not saying that's how cool young I'm just saying those, those are still the two questions I call young news.

[00:17:02] How much power exactly are we talking about and where is he going to play?

[00:17:05] What gives him the nudge over Harry Ford at the number one spot if you were to think of reason.

[00:17:11] Yeah, we have those guys like pretty close to each other on the top one. I think we may even have them back to back right.

[00:17:16] Like I'm looking here. I don't have all the placements memorized. Yeah, we do have back though. We have call young at 37 and Harry Ford at 38.

[00:17:24] So essentially it's a coin flip. I think and I don't do our manners list so I don't set the exact order for all the mariner's prospects.

[00:17:32] I think I think you can make a case obviously for either guy when they're back back.

[00:17:36] And I think the reason call young probably has the edge is like what's the most important tool?

[00:17:42] The most important tool is hit and not the Harry Ford can't hit just call young call young is probably the best hitter in the Mariners organization and one of the best pure hitters to model baseball now if you want to flip it.

[00:17:53] And say look Harry Ford's a catcher and he can stay there and he's athletic. And I think even though he's a catcher, I think he's probably half step quicker than call young and he's got more power than call young.

[00:18:04] He's tools to be a pretty good catcher. You can make that argument.

[00:18:09] I go back and forth like to me, they're one eight and one B. And it's just it's a that that's more you know what's your preference. Do you want to bet on the guy who you know is the better bat?

[00:18:21] Or do you want to bet on the guy who is more positional value and probably has more a better power speed combination which that said the longer Harry Ford catches, it is going to eventually drain him of some of that speed.

[00:18:33] Now as we go to Harry, I think the one thing we think about with Harry Ford is when's the power going to come come along.

[00:18:44] I think that because in the right up on MLB pipeline, there's plus power in there and Perry just had his best home run season at 15.

[00:18:53] But we're still waiting to see really see the plus power from Harry Ford. Is that like on top of the checklist for this year?

[00:19:01] Yeah, I mean, I think with these guys and you're drafting us out of high school, you're not you want to see the power develop. You're not like asking for Harry Ford, hey Harry, we need to see 25 homers from you this year. I mean, I think he's got 25 home potential.

[00:19:14] You know, I think what you're looking for is progress and we saw from 22 23 he went from 11 homers to 15 homers.

[00:19:22] I mean, the slugging percentage, I think stayed, you know, isolated power stayed roughly the same.

[00:19:27] You know, I think the step for him is I mean, he draws a lot of walks which is good.

[00:19:32] And I think, you know, and again, we're talking about subtle adjustments here is like you like the patients but you probably want to see him.

[00:19:40] You know, he'll be 20. I guess he's 21 this year. He's still super young also. He's 21 this season.

[00:19:47] Like, like maybe looking to attack a little bit more that like yeah, it's good to work out so if you get like an early count fastball in your wheelhouse that you can drive turn turn to loose or you get a first pitch that you know that you can attack.

[00:20:01] You know, don't be afraid to do that.

[00:20:02] Not that there's an I'm not suggesting anything wrong with this approach. He's still incredibly young and I don't think you can overstate how difficult it is just when you're young catcher coming out of high school like just to to polish as a catcher and you're catching much better pictures than you ever had caught when you were in Georgia high school.

[00:20:21] And the demands of you know catching 70 80 90 100 games a year like that takes a toll on your back. So I actually think the fact that he walked 100 times last year and hit 15 homers is very positive.

[00:20:34] I do think we'll see more power. It's just it's going to be like the catchers take longer to develop so like, you know, I think Reece box expectation would be maybe hits 20 homeers this year.

[00:20:44] And I think that would be a really good year for him. You know if he could use to dress together parts of his game.

[00:20:49] So I remember we talked about this a little bit last year, but I do want to follow up on it a year later.

[00:20:54] I know you're not in the Mariners for an office, but if you had to best guess like how do you think the Mariners will continue to manage Harry Ford and how much he catches because if they just let him catch all through the minors which they very well might at some point there's going to be some wall he run into with Cal Raleigh.

[00:21:13] So like do you think it's until he gets to the big leagues, they would wait to play him at other positions or do you think at any point they would start to move him around in the minors.

[00:21:23] Well, I mean, I don't think you can just.

[00:21:26] I think it would be for idea to bring him to the big leagues and then say, OK, now you're an outfielder or something like like if you're going to have him play other positions in the big leagues, you have to have him just some of that in the minor.

[00:21:39] I like Cal Raleigh and Cal Raleigh is good.

[00:21:42] Like I'll give you glass, I'll play devil's advocate on Cal Raleigh.

[00:21:47] And look, he hit 57 homers last two years.

[00:21:49] He's also career 217 hitter with the 27 on base percentage whose 26 years old.

[00:21:55] I only carry four to be ready for a couple more years.

[00:21:58] You know by time let's say Harry Ford's ready to like be a everyday player in the big leagues.

[00:22:04] It might be towards the end of 25.

[00:22:06] We're realistically we're talking about for a full season 26.

[00:22:09] You know, at that point Cal Raleigh is going to be 29 years old.

[00:22:12] There's gonna be a lot of wear and tear on him as a catcher.

[00:22:14] He's going to be I think a third year arbitration guy maybe a second arbitration guy might be I might be off on that.

[00:22:20] But like you know catchers age quickly.

[00:22:24] And again, I'm not saying Cal Raleigh that's going to have to Cal Raleigh but by time Harry Ford's ready in 2026.

[00:22:31] Cal Raleigh might not be the Cal Raleigh you saw in 2023 if that makes sense.

[00:22:34] Like catching is just a hard position.

[00:22:36] I don't think there's any plans to not have him develop as a catcher.

[00:22:39] I also would say what say he's ready to be a full time catcher in 2026 and Cal Raleigh is still pretty good.

[00:22:47] Then there's nothing wrong with having like saving the wear and tear on both guys and Cal Raleigh catches 80 games.

[00:22:55] And they both play 40 games at the age or you know first base for Cal Raleigh or you know an outfield maybe for Harry Ford.

[00:23:05] Like like it's it's this isn't the days of Carlton fist where one guy is going to catch 130 games.

[00:23:11] So I don't even think if Cal Raleigh is still good that that's even an issue.

[00:23:15] You just would you know they timeshare it a little bit and then at some point you know like Cal Raleigh I guess I'm looking at this will be a free agent after the 27 season.

[00:23:24] When he's 30 31 years old.

[00:23:27] You know and maybe that maybe they timeshare for a couple of years and then you're like, yeah, 31s old for a catcher we don't I know how he's going to play out or next three or four years.

[00:23:36] But you don't want to invest a long term contract in him and then Harry Ford becomes the lion share the catching in 2028.

[00:23:43] So I don't think.

[00:23:44] I don't think they're going to I don't think they're worrying about Cal Raleigh.

[00:23:47] You know getting in Harry Ford's way right now and I don't think there's really any plans to develop them at a different position for now.

[00:23:55] At least minor standing moving on to one of the first of three first round picks from this past years draft Jim Colt Emerson feels like the guy with the most helium in this organization in the minor leagues.

[00:24:09] Is that a fair statement?

[00:24:11] Yeah, I think it could be. I mean, I think like when you compare him to Cole Young.

[00:24:16] Like I think Cole Young's got a better chance to play shortstop than then Colt Emerson he's quicker like Colt might wind up a third base.

[00:24:24] But I think Cole Emerson a year from now like is Colt Emerson plays more or even by mid season we might have an argument.

[00:24:31] Okay, like who's the best pure hitter in the matter system is a Cole Young it might be Cole Emerson he's that good and I think he's got more power than Cole Young.

[00:24:39] Yeah, I just think he like I do think he has helium. I do think a lot of scouts talk about him.

[00:24:45] A lot of guys loved him in the draft last year. I mean they took it with the 22nd pick.

[00:24:50] And you know there was talk that he could even go a little bit higher than that and he just I think he can really hit.

[00:24:55] I think there's going to be power in there.

[00:24:57] He's pretty athletic. I mean, it's more baseball athleticism than stopwatch athleticism if that makes sense.

[00:25:04] Yeah, I think they're going to keep him in shortstop and see if that works for a while.

[00:25:08] He can maybe play second. I think there's a chance that he can maybe be like six one two 10 when all of a sudden done and just be like a really good third baseman.

[00:25:18] But yeah, he's he's I mean, there's a lot of guys talking about Lazaro Montez too and you know then you have guys like you know some of the pictures were younger.

[00:25:28] I think he's experienced like like a jean or Martinez in the Logan Evans, but I know we've talked internally like I don't again.

[00:25:34] I don't have our top 100 ranking for where we have cold Emerson our list like around 90 or so.

[00:25:39] I think that's on right on the top 100. I know that yeah, I know this terrible. I like there's 100 guys on the top 100.

[00:25:45] My mind's fried to run on 87. He's 87 so like.

[00:25:50] I think if we were put together a list of top five players on like the bottom half or bottom third of the top 100 who could rock it way up the list in 2024.

[00:26:01] He'd be one of them because he can really hit like he's one of those guys every area is gotta talk to love that guy.

[00:26:07] Crossed everybody saw the guy last year loved him and I think he flew to the middle of the night from Ohio, you know what reason you know flew in the radar a little bit.

[00:26:16] But I don't think that's gonna last for too much longer. I grew these healing like and like Cole Young and Harry four can have the seasons we expect.

[00:26:25] And it's not all the question that by the end of 2025 that cold Emerson, I mean I'm sorry, end of 2024 going to 25.

[00:26:33] The cold Emerson is the best regarded as the best prospect in the system. He's got that kind of ceiling.

[00:26:39] So what happened with him after the draft kind of an a positive way. I mean, I guess at least from your perspective and from people you've talked to internally it sounds like a lot of people were very high on Cole Young and look the guy was the first rounder at ice cool clearly did a lot of things right but it felt like at least in some mariners circles that once he got down to Arizona after the draft and once he started playing in complexly game.

[00:26:59] It felt like all the sudden like a switch was flipped with a lot of people saying oh like this guy's upside is crazy.

[00:27:06] I think it's more of a fan perception really. I think everybody knew he was pretty talented like I could set everybody talked to loved him.

[00:27:13] And I think it's just I mean we can debate how much Arizona league or Arizona complex league numbers matter. I mean hit five it was eight games but he hit five 36 with like a 14 15 ops.

[00:27:25] And I think that like it's dumb. It shouldn't work that way, but just those those eight games were so ridiculous.

[00:27:31] I think mariners fans also are like whoa like like like years ago two years to so put this probably 20 years ago in the mirror system.

[00:27:40] Everybody's like oh this guy could be really good and it and he he was a big bonus guy. He's a guy who's a quarterback University of Washington.

[00:27:47] He's like $2 million when that was like easy first round money and he didn't want to be in that kind of big league player.

[00:27:53] And I think colormsons a better prospect. He was more highly regarded coming out of the draft but I do think the numbers were so insane and then he hit 300 in low a.

[00:28:00] So like he ends his his product you hit 374 with a 10 45 ops and like he'd be the same player, but if he hit 274 with a 45 ops.

[00:28:10] I think he'd get as much hype in prospect media as he does.

[00:28:17] Which again, I'm not saying that even makes sense.

[00:28:20] So I just think those numbers are so loud that it just opened again not scout size and not the mariners eyes and like I'm not trying to act like I'm Mr. No at all.

[00:28:31] But I do a high off the draft and I knew cold Emerson was really really good.

[00:28:35] I think when the guy goes out and even though it's like a 35 game debut and he puts up crazy numbers like that.

[00:28:40] It opens a lot of people's eyes if you hit 274 like I said with the 8 45 ops, I think people will be like, I have colorms since a nice player.

[00:28:47] And again, I'm not using any sense but I'm just saying how to cover this for 30 years. It's just the way it goes.

[00:28:52] Like we have a first round pick and he goes out and picks up huge numbers and like you know great.

[00:28:56] I mean, this is a high school player from Ohio wasn't like he was a big time name.

[00:29:00] He wasn't like in the college old series. People didn't know who he was.

[00:29:03] I just think the performance really opened the eyes to what kind of player he is.

[00:29:07] Okay, Jim. Plenty of people in Seattle are very, very excited already about what Lazaro Montez could do and I know last year when we talked you said,

[00:29:15] look, I think a big key for him is going to be cutting down the strikeout rate in 2023 and see how he can do that.

[00:29:21] And he did cut it down a decent amount for a guy who's really not that old.

[00:29:25] He got it from 33% and all the way down to 25% and he for the levels he was at, he really did hit.

[00:29:31] So for 2024 like what is a fair expectation for what Lazaro Montez could do?

[00:29:38] I think you just hoping that he does more of the same. Like you said, he cut it down like with his power.

[00:29:45] You know, I mean, I think you'd love to get this breakout right down to 20% of the miners and it'll probably, you know, obviously it's going to probably be higher than the majors.

[00:29:51] But like you said, while he's 18 years old, you know, he got, you know, some time in low A last year.

[00:29:58] Not only did he cut the strikeout rate down, but like the strikeout to walk ratio went from more into a little bit over two to one to more like three to two.

[00:30:06] Like he drew more walks.

[00:30:08] He cut down the swing and miss and the power with him is so good that like, I mean, he's type of guy.

[00:30:15] I'm not saying he's going to be a 40 home run guy. He's got 40 home run upside.

[00:30:19] And if he hits 30, 40 homeers a year, he strikes out 180 times. You're going to take the strikeouts.

[00:30:24] So you just want to see him like, you know, continue and maybe get a little bit like I said, it'd be ideal if you could get the strikeout right down to 20 to 22%.

[00:30:35] And maybe draw a few more walks, but he did make a lot of progress and he's still so young. He's going to be 19 all seasons.

[00:30:40] So I think honestly, you're just hoping they stay healthy.

[00:30:45] You know, like there's no fluke injury or anything he gets 500 bats this year, 500 played appearances and continues to make progress because he's still, I mean, we're still, he's probably three years away from big leagues realistically, which would, you know, still put him in the big leagues, when he's 20 years old.

[00:31:01] But like, I just think you have to be really encouraged by what he did last year.

[00:31:05] And you just hope he continues on that path much like last week.

[00:31:09] As we talked about, we talked about Felnean Celestin a lot last year about what his path to the big leagues would look like.

[00:31:17] And here we are a year later he's yet to actually play in a professional game this year for Felnean, it's going to be DSL.

[00:31:24] It might be a little bit of complex if I'm going to guess.

[00:31:28] I bet he comes over here sooner rather than later like he was a guy, you know, had the hamstring injury last year.

[00:31:34] So he didn't get to play.

[00:31:37] And well, it'll be interesting because you know, they've changed the complex leagues begin in May.

[00:31:46] I actually think like he was a guy who was considered fairly advanced and I don't know I'm just speculating here.

[00:31:53] So how advanced they thought he was a year ago, I wouldn't be shocked if he started the year in the complex league in May.

[00:32:01] And the hope was that he got at least a little bit of time in single day because I think he's considered pretty advanced for an national guy could be solid or better tools across the board.

[00:32:12] So I think they're going to know like it's not pushing him but I think they're going to try to try to move him pretty quickly.

[00:32:21] Okay, to get to a couple more guys here is we continue to go down this list like another couple guys that haven't played a time they've played more than Felnean has but Johnny Farmillo type the other two first rounders at the Mariners took last year.

[00:32:34] Like they got a little bit of time in low a last year.

[00:32:37] Jerry DePoto seems to be very high from the ways talked about Johnny Farmillo.

[00:32:41] Like again kind of with these guys like what is another kind of reasonable outlook on the two of them as they enter their first year of real professional baseball in a full season extent.

[00:32:54] Yeah, I mean, I think they're both talented guys like I think like compared to cold Emerson.

[00:33:00] I just think cold Emerson's like on a different level as a hitter so I think we call like he's probably going to move quicker.

[00:33:07] I could see Farmillo and type P who are really interesting guys need a little more time to adapt to Pro Ball.

[00:33:15] You know, they might you know, I don't think they're going to come in 374 like Farmillo didn't play last year.

[00:33:21] Peak did play a little bit you know, he struck out 30 times in 24 games.

[00:33:24] So I think that they're going to need more polish.

[00:33:27] They're more raw at the plate now they both have interesting ceilings.

[00:33:31] I mean, you know, Farmillo can really run. He's probably the quickest player those three guys.

[00:33:36] There's some power in there.

[00:33:39] You know, it's just the swing.

[00:33:42] The swing isn't like your pictures left handed swing and so like there's some quiet like guys love the athleticism.

[00:33:49] Some scouts question the battle a bit you know type P has like monstrous bat speed like I mean he's some potential you know 2020.

[00:33:58] You know, Homer steel guy down the road like really big arm.

[00:34:03] You know but like I think like I said like I think both of those guys.

[00:34:08] I like them both like Cole Emerson like I said I think hold on just going to jump up our top of her prosthicle is this year.

[00:34:14] I think Farmillo and Peak like are going to need longer to develop a plate.

[00:34:18] I don't necessarily think they'd be top 100 guys by the end of 2024.

[00:34:22] You know, maybe by the end of 2025 they both have upside but I think they're going to need more time to develop.

[00:34:27] The eighth guy in the MLB pipeline top 100 is Tyler Locklear guy you mentioned out of this entire group that we've talked about today is the most likely to make it to the big league this year.

[00:34:36] Does he have anything left that he actually needs to prove in the minors?

[00:34:40] Yeah, I mean, yeah, I think Tyler you kind of know what you're getting.

[00:34:44] You know it's power over hit.

[00:34:48] You know, there's there's going to be some swing and miss with Tyler.

[00:34:53] You know he you know will draw some walks.

[00:34:57] You know he was banged up last year so he really hasn't played that much above high a he got 22 games double a play in the fall league.

[00:35:04] So I think he's got to hone the approach a little bit more.

[00:35:08] I think realistically like I know they've tried him in third.

[00:35:13] I think he's you know realistically a first baseman at the big league level.

[00:35:18] You know played first base exclusively in the AFL.

[00:35:22] So I don't know if they're just going to keep them you know solely first base and.

[00:35:28] You know what the back develop I mean, I think what you're kind of hoping with him honestly is that you know he becomes a player similar to what type France is right now in the big leagues.

[00:35:37] But you know he really only has.

[00:35:40] You know I think 20 or so games above high a so I think he probably needs.

[00:35:44] Like to face upper level pitching.

[00:35:47] You know, I think he could be up at the end of the year but even realistically I don't think he's going to get if he comes up.

[00:35:53] I don't think it's going to be like it's an everyday player getting a lot of that bats.

[00:35:56] I think it'd be more like he'd come up late in the year or you know if they have an injury and they need him.

[00:36:00] You know I think he does need a full year of that bats against upper level pitching to prepare him for the big list.

[00:36:08] So the last guy we want to get to with you Jim and we're jumping way down here because we just did the top eight or jumping all the way down toward the back end of the Mariners top 30.

[00:36:17] It's Logan Evans like so a guy that was drafted in the 12th round last year.

[00:36:22] To me like from afar I'm not saying like the profiles exactly the same but from the way he's pitched in the spring the way people have started to talk about him.

[00:36:29] The way people have hyped up his stuff it almost feels like some similarities are there between him and Brian Wu in the sense of like numbers in college were not good.

[00:36:38] Mariners clearly identified something with his stuff and now that he's gotten into pro ball in a very, very short sample.

[00:36:44] He's starting to draw some eyeballs like is it fair that he's warning some decent hype all of sudden?

[00:36:51] Yeah I mean I think people are excited. I mean you will see how it holds up a full season but I think he's he's thrown a lot harder like the pitch shapes are better.

[00:37:01] You know you're looking at a guy who could be plus or better fastball plus slider.

[00:37:07] You know when you see guys stuff take a jump like that you know and he was he pitched pretty well for 15 innings last year after the draft and the pitch and fun.

[00:37:14] I think the biggest question is like the hype's definitely wanted like okay like he threw well at the end of last season in 15 innings and.

[00:37:23] He's been really exciting in spring training and it looks really interesting how's the stuff hold up over a full season you know he's fresh out of college where he pitched once a week now he's going to be pitching every five or six days he's going to pitch more innings they're a pitch before so does this stuff that looks great.

[00:37:41] Is that is that going to hold up over a full season like I think that's a question when it might it is funny I mean between him.

[00:37:48] Another guy who's down our list is Jeter Martinez is 18th on a list and Jeter Martinez's stuff has looked you know really really good I think he's been up to 98 like the secondary stuff got it seems like it's making a jump and again it's the same thing okay okay like his stuff jumped a lot from you can

[00:38:06] be a little bit more than that and then he's going to be able to get it from 89 to 90 to 93 94 last year.

[00:38:13] If now he's touching 98 spring like okay like let's see how you know he's still young I guess we're going to see him prime the complex lead to start maybe we'll see him a little bit in a ball toward the end of the year but like okay like every

[00:38:22] years between there's guys like wow their stuff looks great.

[00:38:26] Okay now let's see what it looks like four or five months from now you can they sustain it and it's it is exciting both both Logan Evans and Jeter Martinez I think have opened eyes

[00:38:35] with the mirrors are excited I know it's got some other teams are curious like okay like these guys have made it jump in spring training you know what's going to look like in the regular season.

[00:38:44] Last thing for me Jim you mentioned Jeter and you mentioned Logan Evans down down outside the top eight of which we mostly highlighted here here in this interview who else outside

[00:38:56] of the top eight if there is a guy or two year to pick that could jump up these rankings or look a lot better than they had in a previous season this upcoming season who would

[00:39:07] be. Yeah I think the biggest name for me would be Teddy McGraw who the Mariners drafted in the third round last year out of wake forest and pitch all year because he had Tom and John surgery you know it was I mean it's interesting you think about

[00:39:21] the pitch in the head they had the best pitching staff in the country last year because they had red louder one seventh overall they had said Sullivan one high said Tina one high came to

[00:39:32] Manachi their closure one high tell me I'm forgetting somebody else too and you know and Teddy went in the third round you know you

[00:39:40] pitch all year and there was talk going into the year that Teddy was going to be a first round pick.

[00:39:45] When it was healthy it was mid 90s it really promising change up he had a solid I mean it's three pitch guy you want to see a few more strikes but I do think and I don't know I feel like

[00:39:57] you have the surgery early last year which will put him in position to maybe pitch somewhere by the end of this year a few innings.

[00:40:06] And I do think like I don't think he got me and I don't think he has talked about much now because you know he's come off time John didn't pitch it all last season nobody saw him third round pick you know they had all the three high school guys took him the first round but I do think he's a guy who once he gets going.

[00:40:21] It has a lot of upward mobility like like he was he had a chance to go in the first round last year if he hadn't gotten hurt like he was pitching really well in inner squads right before the season started when he blew out so assuming it's healthy you know it's not automatic

[00:40:35] a lot of guys times guys come back from time John stronger thrown harder than never like he could be he could be really interesting.

[00:40:43] Jim this has all been great as always we always appreciate you breaking everything down for us certainly Mariners fans are excited to see a bunch of these guys I'm sure after listening to you talk about a bunch of them they should be even more excited so we appreciate all the information and we hope to talk to you against them.

[00:40:58] Yeah that would be great like I said at the top I do think either the rank 18th right now they they we probably have the numbers somewhere I don't know from front of me they probably have one the youngest top 30s out there like they just have like they brought in a lot of super young guys internationally through the draft the draft some high school guys who I think you're going to be in the system for a couple years so I really do think it's usually runs in cycles they were two a couple years ago now they're 18.

[00:41:22] I can see them a lot closer to 10 by the end of this year and it wouldn't surprise me if they had a you know close to say you know unless Jerry goes and makes a bunch of trades these trained prospects for veterans that you know in a couple years we could see them you know pushing up in the top close to top five again because there is a lot of exciting on talent in the system.

[00:41:40] Well I think people are excited to hear that so thanks so much and we appreciate a ton.

[00:41:44] Yeah anytime I always quick talking to you guys it's fun talking about the marriage just awesome stuff from Jim call us before we get to speak your mind let's hear a word from our friends at simply Seattle opening day is nearing like Lyle said earlier in the episode in the best way to go to opening day is have some fresh gear and simply Seattle make some of the best gear the best Mariners gear in the Pacific Northwest

[00:42:06] West you can find them online at simply Seattle dot com and use our code marine 15 for 15% off your order your a Mariner fan see off fan Husky fan they have you covered go check them out at simply Seattle dot com user code marine 15 at checkout let's get to speak your mind.

[00:42:23] Okay Lyle what is on your mind this week so I've been wanting to save this one for till we got a little bit closer to the start of the year and now it's a pretty good time to talk about this but

[00:42:36] for most of you that listen to the podcast I would guess a lot of you also watch our stuff on social media I'm guessing the way some of you found us is because you'd see our stuff on social media.

[00:42:46] Well if you notice when we post show clips from the show there's usually a song that we use pretty regularly like this we usually use the same instrumental version of a song in all of our clips all right say at least like 90% of them so that song for those who don't know as a song called teal sleeves it's a song by a guy name

[00:43:05] Don dishes who is a local artist who we've gotten to be friends with over the last year or so T.J.'s never actually met him in person but you know we've talked over Instagram DM's and I have met him a few times out of the ballpark during the year awesome dude he's about our age like local artists trying to make his way through the music industry which you know anybody who has a passion like that

[00:43:29] and wants to put their head down and try to do what they love kind of like the two of us are trying to do with what we're doing in our careers like not always resonates with me so it was cool to meet him when we met him at the ballpark and he was telling us hey I'm a local artist this is all the way back in like July and he says you should check out some of the music I do some of its mariners related

[00:43:49] and he sent us the main song that he does that he made his prey is most popular one today it's called teal sleeves it's all about the mariners like hip hop song tone like the beat of its really good the lyrics of it are really good and we said look I we really like this song it's really cool the only thing about it is I don't know if the words would work to use in our song because they would be like musical lyrics of a song talking over us but we said if you send us the instrumental version

[00:44:16] we definitely use it so he sent us the instrumental version we started using it we've used it ever since we think it's a really good tune and the actual lyrics of the song like when you want to just go listen to the song on Apple or Spotify it's awesome like I think this should be like the official song of mariners fans and they play it throughout the ballpark sometimes so I'm rambling on here a little bit my opening monologue about it but point being like this is just our chance to support to support a local artist a little bit and also let you guys know like there's a cool song about the mariners out there if you want to go listen it's about the

[00:44:46] current guys on the team too well when I get to the ballpark lyle you'll have to introduce me because I know I know I know the beat like the back of my hand because we use it so often so and yeah and the song is really good so I look forward to getting to meet Don dishes hopefully this season it's all about you know

[00:45:03] we talk about like this space we have here on this podcast it's like it's about community building like that certainly part of the community right it's all like local people trying to make it in around a certain venue and like you said it one of his songs is around the baseball team in town just like this podcast is around the baseball team in town and you know that's where the communities intertwine and it's really cool to see stuff like that.

[00:45:28] It's very cool like again I remember listening to it was like oh this is really cool like and a bunch of the guys follow him on Instagram too like like clearly there's players on the team that have heard it and I'll stress us again they play it in the ballpark.

[00:45:41] I don't know if they play it during the game but it's absolutely been on the PA system pregame during batting practice when people start to file into the stadium in fact I've seen some of his Instagram stories where he'll post himself at the ballpark like a video of him

[00:45:56] and you can hear the song playing throughout the ballpark which is super cool that has to be super cool for him it's like that's my song playing for my favorite baseball team and players know it so I would encourage all of you guys that if you're looking for some more mariners content in a way like this is mariners content it's a song about the guys on the team

[00:46:13] like go check it out I genuinely think it's a very good song I think he's a very talented artist that's trying to just make his way up in the music world and again if we have any chance to support people in the local community we want to take the chance to do it now we're doing it right here so shout out to you Don dishes I'm sure we're going to see with the ballpark this year

[00:46:31] he's always in a lot of games and you know what keep making all the music you do because it's really it's it's good stuff and for those listening to this podcast listen forward at the ballpark so that was my speak your mind hopefully that resonates with some people.

[00:46:44] My speaker behind this week I'm a hypocrite. Do you want to know why? Oh I'd love to know why. Hmm you'll find no bigger anti college basketball fan than me, me.

[00:47:00] I think I think college basketball is unwatchable for the most part. I just like not my jam I don't even watch the NBA and they actually make the baskets now you take away the basket making ability of a lot of these teams and it's kind of kind of hard to sell but this week's been rolling around here we are recording on Wednesday the first the round of 64 of the NCAA men's basketball tournament starts tomorrow.

[00:47:24] And I'm going to say I'm actually kind of looking forward to watching the games. I said hello to enough. I am actually looking forward to watching the first round of games tomorrow what?

[00:47:36] What and more importantly, you know I watch a lot of TikTok and I've really found this week I've gotten back into the niche of the bracketologists and the championship predictors.

[00:47:48] I love like the fact that people have figured out that the last like 25 national champions are like top 57 offense top 37 defense on Ken Palm.

[00:48:00] They're ranked in the top 12 of the week six AP poll they don't lose in the first round of their conference tournament they don't have a first year head coach and all those parameters everything checks out.

[00:48:11] Everything perfectly checks out and I'm like you know we're baseball nerds like we sit here and ramble on about this stuff people don't like actually look at when they evaluate baseball but we try and interpret it for you here on this podcast.

[00:48:24] And these these college basketball guys are doing the same thing to me while I'm watching their stuff and I'm like this is so interesting it's like all numbers they have boiled it down to the stats and analytics of college basketball and it's so interesting.

[00:48:39] And so in summary I'm just like I'm a massive hypocrite for I hate on the sport 11 months out of the year and then one month it's pretty cool.

[00:48:51] It's very cool again I like college basketball as a whole I probably didn't watch as much regular season college basketball this year just because like again like with this podcast and with the other things that we're busy with like there's not always as much time for me to sit down and watch.

[00:49:08] Any more nothing I watch none but yeah March madness is great. I like college basketball.

[00:49:13] I think the hate that you give to it is very are telling me you didn't sit down and watch Virginia last night.

[00:49:19] Well we were recording an episode for the Wednesday show weren't we on Tuesday well you didn't then break off and go rewatch the whole Virginia basketball game in the first four.

[00:49:30] Absolutely not because now that I will say Virginia basketball is unwatched like when I picture college basketball I'm not going to say Virginia basketball is unwatched.

[00:49:36] But when I picture college basketball I picture Virginia slow inefficient and boring.

[00:49:45] And it checks out you know 14 points in the first 20 minutes of a basketball game. I mean you should be kicked off the court at that point you should for fit.

[00:49:53] That's a case that does not happen in other sport at least in like college football the teams like though you know you'll have your option teams so those teams can actually score in college baseball.

[00:50:04] Offences are great like you don't have to worry about that college basketball it's amazing how some some division one athlete you give them a wide open three pointer break.

[00:50:16] Break break.

[00:50:19] It's incredible.

[00:50:22] Yeah that that that doof team was Zion RJ bear and Cam Reddisch was terrible like they're all players dude all in the you watch Zion on the court and you tell me that that dude was a college basketball player no he wasn't okay even there's there's teams in other years that are plenty fun and like with really good athletes and sharp shooters and all that set like there's a lot of amateurs every year that just knock down three after three after three like there's like you're picking.

[00:50:51] Like the team at the absolute one end of the spectrum that is yes the unwatchable brand of college basketball in Virginia there like that's not a fun brand of basketball there are fun brands of basketball though in the college game.

[00:51:06] Yeah I will say though like these are for my favorite days of the year upcoming like the Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday of March madness when there are games all day especially the first two days those Friday Saturday days.

[00:51:20] Where the round of 64 games are going on not only is their games all day but like there's always games getting toward the tail end of the second half so you can always tune in on those games coming down to the wire I think it's so fun like you've got non stop entertainment all day.

[00:51:35] Those were my favorite days of the school year aside from the last day of school every year my favorite days of the school year were the days of March madness because I would sit and watch March madness games all day like and like all day.

[00:51:48] I didn't I didn't have to worry about much else because you're winner.

[00:51:52] I have Houston over Illinois in the final that you have you can you back that was another of the parameters that I laid out earlier in the speak your mind going back to back was also one of the parameters but you cons the best team so I'm picking them yeah I mean they are the best team on paper I just best team doesn't always win so like right I think Illinois is very good like there are three like you can see

[00:52:16] you can pick all one seeds right like anybody knows I mean you don't need me to tell you that anybody makes a bracket knows you can't pick chalk because it never goes like that so Illinois is a three seed with two very good scores like Terran Shannon's one of the best players in the country and that's a team that again like opposite of what you tried to preach very good teams scores a lot like has playmaker they don't play defense though I don't believe

[00:52:42] play a lot of events but they do score so I have them and then I do have a one seed in the final with Houston and I've Houston winning but yeah that's my national title who do you have you come beating.

[00:52:52] I think I had a meeting Houston I like like you con it seating was was on the best team last year but once they started playing they were the best team there wasn't even close with them playing the tournament last year yeah if you put them against every one seed they would have won by 15 last year

[00:53:10] so probably true so if that same thing happens this year they do I will say they have a very tough region how many try how many conference champions do they have in the region it's like four is that many yeah they got a lot and if I remember right yet so Illinois and you cons region and that's like and that's again why I tried to make a little bit of a different pick because again you have to go with the unpredictable things sometimes like I'm almost positive I've you can't am I lead eight in fact no I do have them in my lead eight but I just have Illinois winning the elite eight.

[00:53:38] So I think we'll have to have a check in speaker my next week when the lead eight games is incoming I'm sure by next week my brackets going to be in like the fourth percentile just be terrible but you know what the best part about picking brackets as you can always feel good about it when you submit it's like yeah I watched college basketball I know what I'm doing I can make some decent picks and then the first five game start you get like four the five wrong and you're like this sports just stupid like maybe it's the reason why I'm not sure if you're going to be able to do that.

[00:54:06] Maybe it's the reason I like this time of year the best because the college basketball postseason is the thing you can watch absolutely zero college basketball throughout the season and do just as well as someone who watches college basketball every single weekend right that's hundred percent so it's it's fun Mark madness a lot of fun so yes let's circle back to that into a check in next week with how our brackets are doing I will be very interested for now I think that'll wrap up this edition of the Marine layer podcast you guys know the drill actually made it

[00:54:36] I just realized when we do our check in next week on speak your mind it'll be opening day like the when that podcast gets released it'll be opening day we made it we made it so let's go dude actually let's let's let's make a slight note about that here before we totally finish off the show little bit of a programming re uh programming note for next week we're gonna put it on social media too

[00:55:00] we're gonna for just next week have a little bit of a different schedule because of opening day so on Tuesday we're gonna release an episode instead of Wednesday we're gonna release our you know pre opening day show with Jason Churchill he's gonna be back on with us friend of the pod who's awesome as you guys know very very baseball smart he's gonna break down

[00:55:20] basically everything with us to get us ready for the start opening day and then on Thursday like Thursday morning we're gonna release a show instead of Friday where we're gonna put out our season like our season predictions like either like some wind

[00:55:33] totals some home run totals like who's gonna lead the team in certain categories all that stuff so check that out that's just a note for you guys Tuesday Thursday shows this next week and

[00:55:43] after that we'll be back to the normal Wednesday Friday so just wanted to make a quick note of that but other than that yes not a wrap it up for this edition of the marine layer podcast you

[00:55:51] guys know you want to listen to the full podcast make sure to download subscribe download the episodes leave a five star review if

[00:55:58] you're listening rate review and if you're watching on YouTube make sure like comment subscribe and go follow us on social media where

[00:56:04] we're always doing a bunch of stuff that's Instagram TikTok Twitter and YouTube shorts at marine layer pod that's TJ I'm

[00:56:11] wild as always we thank you guys for tuning in talk to you soon

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