Episode 131: Reacting To The Mike Baumann Trade, And Is There A Sure-Fire Trade Bat The Mariners Can Acquire This Season?

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 131 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We have our two Mariners storylines,

[00:00:05] the Mariners trade for former Orioles reliever Michael Blomman and we'll discuss is there a

[00:00:11] surefire bat on the trade market this year. We'll go down on the farm and pick out a standout

[00:00:16] Mariners minor leaguer. We have a Russell Wilson umpire of the week and we'll close out the show

[00:00:20] with Speak Your Mind. Here's a reminder to all you guys, all the Marine Layer Pod fans,

[00:00:26] make sure you download these podcast episodes. If you're listening on Apple, on Spotify, wherever,

[00:00:30] hit download, leave us a five-star review, leave a written review, yet you're helping us out a

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[00:00:43] and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod. Let's get it rolling. And we welcome you to this

[00:01:00] episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network,

[00:01:04] recording Thursday afternoon, May 23rd. And if you were to ask a random Mariner fan today,

[00:01:12] Lyle, could you tell the Mariners split a series in the Bronx?

[00:01:17] Probably not. If you were to ask a Mariners fan before the season,

[00:01:21] did you ever think Dylan Moore and Luke Railey would be hitting two and three?

[00:01:24] What would the answer be?

[00:01:26] No. What a strange lineup today.

[00:01:29] Very strange. Very strange.

[00:01:31] Yeah. And look at that. You'd say, okay, let's frame it this way, guys. It is late May. The

[00:01:37] Mariners are in first place. They have their biggest lead in first place in the AO West

[00:01:42] since 2003. They have taken the first two games of a series in New York. And the two

[00:01:49] and three hitters in the lineup this day are Dylan Moore and Luke Railey, while the lineup

[00:01:55] is at full health.

[00:01:58] It's crazy. It's not fair to say Jorge Polanco has become a bench player. It's just the fact

[00:02:04] that he was dealing with the hamstring thing and Dylan Moore has been really hot, but

[00:02:07] it is weird to see it's May 23rd at time of recording and Polanco is essentially not

[00:02:12] playing a ton. Julio gets moved down to six.

[00:02:15] Hold another discussion there. After we talked about Julio last week doing well, which

[00:02:22] still applies, but he's actually been pretty ice cold since then. And the Mariners have noticed

[00:02:27] bumping him down in the lineup. It's just, you're right. It's strange to look at. I will say

[00:02:31] circling back to our note from Wednesday or Wednesday's podcast, we tried to guess where

[00:02:37] JP would be. He is right back there in the leadoff spot. No hesitation. The Mariners

[00:02:42] plopped him right back down at the top of the lineup and he's been fine. He's going to

[00:02:46] get a while up there to unentrench himself if he continues hitting poorly like he did before

[00:02:52] he got hurt. But that's time to see. So the only normalcy of the lineup is really,

[00:02:58] it's JP and that's it. Right. And Rojas has been scuffling a bit, which look people,

[00:03:03] at some point this was going to happen at some period of time during 2024 for Josh Rojas.

[00:03:08] It was awesome. The start he was off to, he just wasn't going to hit 350 all year

[00:03:12] because nobody really does. Now the key for Rojas, right, is getting out of this and turning it

[00:03:18] around. He doesn't have to be a 150 WRC plus guy, but if he can be the 115 to 120 guy,

[00:03:24] walk a decent amount and be a force out of the bottom of the lineup,

[00:03:27] that's a great role that he can play. So sure people are starting to adjust to him

[00:03:32] a little bit opposing pitchers. Now Rojas will just have to adjust back a little bit.

[00:03:36] Let's get to our Mariners storylines into the bullpen while the Mariners were in New

[00:03:41] York. They made a trade. Mike Bauman of the Orioles was DFA'd by Baltimore earlier this week

[00:03:46] and the Mariners swing a trade for him. They acquire Michael Perez alongside him,

[00:03:51] a minor league catcher, and they send triple A catcher Blake Hunt to Baltimore. They had to

[00:03:56] make a move like this. You and I have talked about for episodes here that just watching

[00:04:01] the bullpen, it didn't feel comfortable. Leeds didn't feel comfortable. It didn't feel like

[00:04:07] there were enough leverage, enough leverage arms. It didn't feel like there was enough

[00:04:12] good stuff in the bullpen and it just kind of made you feel a little bit nervous with

[00:04:16] the bullpen either trying to keep a game close or hold the lead. And Jerry went out and made

[00:04:22] his first transaction. He made another one today claiming eye-off waivers, but Bauman

[00:04:27] traded for from the Orioles yesterday. Good stuff, not a whole lot of control,

[00:04:34] not a whole lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks.

[00:04:38] The other move they made today just very quickly, they claimed Eduardo Salazar off

[00:04:42] waivers from the Dodgers. They, the Mariners DFA'd Sammy Peralta as a result who was down

[00:04:46] in triple A. That was the other move. Yeah, the more highlight of the two is making the

[00:04:50] trade for Mike Bauman who throws a pretty firm fastball, has a good slider. The key for him

[00:04:58] is similar to somebody like Ryan Stanek. He's going to have to be in the zone.

[00:05:02] Yeah, in the zone. He's the difference between him and Stanek is Stanek at least still

[00:05:08] maintains a high strikeout rate and you and I both believe Stanek has elite stuff. I

[00:05:12] think Bauman has good stuff. Van Graaf's grades him out as fastballs above average,

[00:05:18] his sliders about average, his change up is below average, and his knuckle curves

[00:05:23] his best pitch with the stuff plus a 1-21 making it 21% better than league average.

[00:05:29] His percentages of how he throws those pitches are as accordingly fastballs the most. He

[00:05:34] throws a snuggle curve nearly 30% of the time. I don't know if there's like a pitch mix thing

[00:05:39] the Mariners see. He had his debut today, was not very good, didn't even make it through

[00:05:42] a whole inning, walked a couple of batters and wasn't particularly in the strike zone

[00:05:46] a whole lot. I think the Mariners hope that he throws in and around the strike zone. He's

[00:05:50] just sort of like as an Oriole, this has been his profile. He's walked a lot of guys

[00:05:55] and he's not struck a whole lot of guys out. So as a pitcher, that's the worst combination you

[00:06:02] can have. Not striking guys out, allowing a lot of guys on base, and it's reflective in his

[00:06:07] fielding independent pitching, his expected fielding independent pitching. It's pretty high,

[00:06:12] but at this rate where the bullpen is, the Mariners can't really afford to pick and choose

[00:06:19] unless they're really willing to overpay for someone they deem as an elite bullpen arm.

[00:06:25] That wouldn't really fall in line with much of what Justin Hollander and Jerry Depoto have done

[00:06:29] in their time here in Seattle. They're not one to go out and get marquee names in the bullpen

[00:06:34] because they just don't feel like it's worth it. That's why Ryan Stanek was maybe not a

[00:06:37] surprise, but it was out of line from what they normally do adding to this bullpen. Bauman

[00:06:44] is more like the guys they add to this bullpen and hopefully they see something in his

[00:06:48] repertoire that they can use to their advantage.

[00:06:52] Gregory Santos was a household name too, but usually they don't go out and make moves like that.

[00:06:57] He had only been in the big leagues for one year. I was maybe thinking of a more veteran one,

[00:07:01] if I were to be more specific.

[00:07:03] Veteran, yeah. We talked about it at the time, and I'm sure we'll get back into this

[00:07:08] when Santos eventually gets back on the field, but I think the Mariners really like

[00:07:12] Gregory Santos because to go out and get an arm like that, they don't usually do. He's

[00:07:17] so good and already established himself as such a good big league reliever.

[00:07:20] But anyway, more about Bauman. There are things to like about him. He doesn't get hit very hard.

[00:07:25] This year he's not getting hit very hard. That's something that I'm sure stood out in

[00:07:28] the Mariners profile is barrel rates in the 90th percentile. X-Lag favors him very, very

[00:07:34] well. So there are pieces of his game that are right now thriving. So I'm sure that popped

[00:07:43] off the Mariners a little bit. I'm sure there's things internally they like about

[00:07:49] Bauman too. I bet you they like his slider a bit. I'm sure there's something about his

[00:07:53] pitch mix that they see and say, we can work with this because usually the Mariners don't

[00:07:57] acquire guys who have issues with walks. What's their whole philosophy? Everybody

[00:08:02] knows it, right? Dominate the zone. They like guys are going to throw a lot of strikes,

[00:08:05] first pitch strikes, be around the strike zone. Bauman hasn't really done that,

[00:08:09] but between not getting hit hard, having a couple pitches that do seem to play,

[00:08:12] having a fastball that can sit 96, 97. I think there's something here the Mariners are saying,

[00:08:19] yeah, we can work with paired with to your point. The trade market's not heating up yet.

[00:08:25] The Mariners need bullpen arms right now and there are not Ryan Helsley's out there right

[00:08:30] now available for trade. It's May 23rd when we're recording this. So the Mariners have

[00:08:35] to make do with what's available right now. And if they still need bullpen help come closer

[00:08:39] to the deadline, you may see some more household names get brought in here. But for now,

[00:08:44] this is the best they've got. Ryan Helsley, if you're available,

[00:08:47] blink twice and I'll send a down payment over to St. Louis, please. Thank you.

[00:08:52] Here's the interesting thing. Here's how I kind of frame this one. Looking at,

[00:08:55] I was looking at his heat charts too. He pitches like and has the arsenal of a

[00:09:00] strikeout pitcher yet the execution of it is just not there. Like he throws a four

[00:09:04] seam fastball that pitches on the top rail of the strike zone. There was a knuckle curve

[00:09:08] that aims low in the zone slash out of the zone. And yet there's no results for the strikeouts,

[00:09:15] which is odd. If you're, if that's what you're trying to do and you're not achieving it,

[00:09:21] and that just opens you up to other things because that means the ball's getting put in

[00:09:25] play. And we know about four seam fastballs, right? If you're not swinging missing at a four

[00:09:29] seam fastball, that's the most likely pitch to get hit for damage. And that the results

[00:09:33] of his reflect that he's, his fastballs got hammered every year of his career. He has not

[00:09:38] been able to get much swing and miss on that pitch. And yet he throws that pitch about half

[00:09:42] the time on the top rail of the strike zone. I don't know if there's an adjustment tweak there.

[00:09:47] I know the Mariners in the last couple of years, especially have really,

[00:09:50] really bought into throwing more sinkers, keeping the ball on the ground,

[00:09:54] keeping it away from damage areas and letting the fielders take care of whatever you can't

[00:10:00] strike out, especially in the bullpen. Remember that 20, the 2021 bullpen, the first sort of

[00:10:05] quote unquote rag tag group they brought together of Casey Sadler, Drew Stechenreiter and Paul

[00:10:10] Seewald. They all threw, well, Sadler was a sinker roller, but Stechenreiter and Seewald,

[00:10:15] two of the high leverage arms in that bullpen, four seam fastballs top of the strike zone,

[00:10:19] attack, attack, attack, strikeout at the top. But then as it, as it's evolved, right?

[00:10:24] You know how Andres Munoz with a sinker, Gabe Spire with a sinker, Taylor Saucedo

[00:10:28] with a sinker. I think Thornton throws a stinker, right? He throws a sinker.

[00:10:32] Trey Lockerbie – Gregory Santos certainly throws a sinker.

[00:10:34] Greg Spire – Yeah, Gregory Santos throws a sinker too. Like it's a definite philosophical change.

[00:10:40] Stanik doesn't throw a sinker, but again, he's a veteran, so not expecting him as much to

[00:10:46] just pick up a sinker in his thirties. But Bauman could be different. He could be,

[00:10:50] he could keep his four seam fastball or he could, he could switch up his arsenal.

[00:10:55] I'm not totally sure. It would be strange to see someone's arsenal change in season. That's not

[00:11:00] very normal, but nothing's unexpected.

[00:11:02] Trey Lockerbie – I think his fastball has some decent rise to it too or in nerd terms,

[00:11:06] induce vertical break. So maybe that's something the Mariners like and feel like

[00:11:10] it's something they can work with. But yeah, Bauman has a profile that said, look,

[00:11:15] there are things to like about him. And for where the Mariners are at right now,

[00:11:19] they needed to do something. So I'm glad they did something. Although,

[00:11:23] doesn't seem like everyone was thrilled about it. Some people seemed less than

[00:11:29] thrilled about the idea of giving up Blake Hunt, which I understand the guy's going off in AAA.

[00:11:34] But I just like to remind people, we talk about the PCL being just a bam box of a hitters league

[00:11:40] all the time. And we love Brian O'Keefe. He was awesome when we got to talk to him last year.

[00:11:46] But Brian O'Keefe put up about an 840 OPS in AAA last year and it didn't exactly translate

[00:11:52] to the big leagues. So I know Blake Hunt's younger. He's currently OPSing over 900.

[00:11:59] But it doesn't necessarily mean he's going to come up and be a Danny Jansen number two

[00:12:04] type catcher in his prime. Yeah. And like was Blake Hunt even like,

[00:12:09] was he over Harry Ford? The organizational depth chart maybe barely. But like,

[00:12:14] could you argue right? Like this second, you mean this second? Yes. But like,

[00:12:19] if we get to August, is he still? I don't know. I know we're talking about Harry Ford later in

[00:12:25] the episode. That dude is currently doing things that most would consider illegal in AA

[00:12:29] to the baseball. He's been, he has been that good at the plate. So like thinking about

[00:12:34] it in that terms, like what was the difference there really that much? Like to be determined,

[00:12:40] we don't know how Harry would hit in AA, but it didn't like, it didn't feel like if the

[00:12:45] Mariners truly thought Blake Hunt was better than Sebby Savala and he'd be better served on

[00:12:48] the big league roster, then he'd be in the big leagues. Correct. Pretty quickly.

[00:12:54] I have one last note on that topic before we move on to our next subject. Because Blake

[00:13:00] Hunt's gone, I don't make many demands to a front office on this podcast. Now I've got one.

[00:13:05] Oh boy. The Mariners better start playing Matt Scheffler. And that's all I have to say.

[00:13:10] Now that Blake Hunt's gone, doors been opened, get them behind the plate and let

[00:13:15] them play. So for those who don't know Matt Scheffler, who's a catcher in AAA,

[00:13:20] longtime friend of mine, grew up playing little league high school together,

[00:13:25] and he was our first player to ever be on the podcast. So with that, start playing them.

[00:13:30] If you're a Marine layer pod fan, you're a Matt Scheffler fan. And I'm putting that

[00:13:33] notice out there to everybody listening. So if you, if you're listening to this,

[00:13:39] get on, get on the, uh, get on the hype train and start telling the people

[00:13:44] play Matt Scheffler because now that Blake Hunt gone, why not? Like Michael Papierski's

[00:13:49] not hitting at all in AAA. They just acquired Michael Perez, who's like a 30 year old with

[00:13:53] a little bit of big league time, who's also not hitting in AAA. Let's chef start playing

[00:13:59] and give him his time. That's all I've got to say. Start a chant. Let chef cook.

[00:14:03] Let chef cook. That's what I'm saying. Get like, let them start playing the two games he's

[00:14:11] played in so far. Oh, we had two great games at the plate and he's also known for being a

[00:14:15] very good defensive catcher. So Mariners need a new AAA catcher, new main guy. Let it be him.

[00:14:20] That's my demand. I don't, I don't demand many things out of the Mariners front office,

[00:14:23] but that's my demand. You have my endorsement. Yeah. And again, if you're,

[00:14:27] if you're a Marine layer pod fan, you're a Matt Scheffler fan. So get on board people.

[00:14:32] That's all we've got to say. Start endorsing it like we are. Okay. Before we hit our next

[00:14:38] subject here, let's take a quick pause. Let's talk to you guys about our friends at Pagachas

[00:14:42] Pub 85. You want a place to watch the game with your friends? You don't have to look any farther

[00:14:46] than that. Head over there. You can do a flurry of things. You want to play some darts. You

[00:14:50] want to play some pool, eat some great food. All that's over there. And they've got some

[00:14:54] great drink specials during happy hour too. It's a long happy hour. It's two to 6 PM.

[00:14:59] The drinks are three to $4 all of them on the happy hour menu. So show up a little before

[00:15:05] the game, have a couple of drinks with your friends. Watch the Mariners. It's all there.

[00:15:09] It's over at Pagachas Pub 85 in Kirkland. So second storyline here, there's a lot of talk

[00:15:16] these days about the trade deadline, the Mariners acquiring bats and understandably so

[00:15:21] it seems like the Mariners are trending in a direction where they are going to need to get

[00:15:26] a bat. But Jeff Passon was on rock and salt this week on seven 10 Seattle sports.

[00:15:31] And he was talking about how he feels like the Mariners have had to try to thread the needle

[00:15:36] with a lot of trades with him now saying if they go get a bat at the deadline,

[00:15:41] it can't be a trade where they attempt to thread the needle. It needs to be a surefire

[00:15:46] guy. Those are the words he used surefire guy. So TJ and I started to sit here and think

[00:15:51] about who's a surefire guy. And as we dive into this subject here, I'll kick it off with

[00:15:57] this. I'm not sure there is one. The only surefire guy it feels like in the last two seasons is

[00:16:04] Juan Soto, right? Like total surefire trading for a bonafide future. In that case Hall of

[00:16:13] Famer but at least All-Star guaranteed. That's it. And the way Passon framed it,

[00:16:18] I like how he framed it was like, okay, think about Jerry DePoto and their competitive

[00:16:22] trade deadlines. The deadlines, the one deadline the Mariners went out and swung big

[00:16:28] for a big piece. Luis Castillo went to the playoffs immensely successful.

[00:16:33] They knocked the trade out of the park. Every other deadline has been

[00:16:38] try this, try that like this might work out and ultimately has it right? Not totally not

[00:16:45] enough to push them across the finish line. I personally thought their 2021 deadline was

[00:16:51] awesome. Just personally. Oh, okay. Any bias there? Do you have any bias there? A lot. Yeah,

[00:16:59] actually a lot. Yeah. Anyway, Passon is right though now getting back to a serious note.

[00:17:06] The trade they made a big swing. Yeah, they went to the playoffs. They got Luis Castillo.

[00:17:12] They traded up. They traded a decent, not a decent amount of good amount to go get them,

[00:17:16] but it worked. They went and extended them shortly after Mariners went to the playoffs

[00:17:20] and broke the drought. So yeah, Passon's right. They better go get a guy if they're really going

[00:17:24] to trade prospects that they know is going to help them and actually level up this offense.

[00:17:32] Let's start with candidate number one for seeing like total surefire. Vlad Guerrero Jr.

[00:17:37] He's been a hot name this week. The idea sounds great. Former number one prospect.

[00:17:42] The dude had a historic 2021 season. He was an OPS over a thousand crushing the baseball

[00:17:48] in the air. A ton of home runs, an unbelievable baseball player. Like what every team dreams

[00:17:56] of in their number one prospect doing is what Vlad and I think that's what you like. We

[00:17:59] thought Vlad was eventually going to do when he got to the big leagues was what he did in 2021.

[00:18:04] Like son of a Hall of Famer and potentially a future Hall of Famer. Well, he's gone in the

[00:18:09] complete opposite direction since then. He's been a good hitter since then, but perhaps

[00:18:14] not good enough and not especially not good enough in the light of Blue Jays fans.

[00:18:19] If you look at his baseball savant page, you can tell one thing. He still hits the ball

[00:18:23] extremely hard. He doesn't strike out a whole lot and he walks at a well above league

[00:18:29] average amount. In fact, below league average strikeouts above league average walks. So when

[00:18:34] I give you the combination of that, he hits the ball extremely hard. He walks a lot and he

[00:18:39] doesn't strike out a lot. You'd say slam dunk easy. He's been average to well below average

[00:18:47] in value in both batting, base running and fielding this year. Like the value as a player

[00:18:56] is not really there. He's not launching the ball at all. Passon said this in his interview

[00:19:02] this week too. He's got the Julio effect right now. He's hitting the ball hard.

[00:19:06] Nothing's elevated. Nothing's in the air and his savant profile backs that up. That's why he's

[00:19:11] only got four homers. So I wrote all these guys slash lines out for guys we're going to talk

[00:19:15] about just to give people a little bit of a synopsis of what they're up to right now.

[00:19:18] So Vlad is a 757 OPS, four homers, 123 WRC plus. 123 WRC plus is good. Vlad is having

[00:19:31] by league standards a good year. Now the reason he is 23% above league average right now with a

[00:19:37] 757 OPS is because of the reasons we've talked about for a while now. Offense is way down

[00:19:42] in baseball this year. That being said, if the Mariners pick up the phone to call Ross

[00:19:48] Atkins and the Blue Jays and say we're interested in Vlad, the Blue Jays are not

[00:19:54] going to respond with okay, he's been a 120 WRC plus guy this year. Let's think of a fair

[00:20:00] trade package. No, they're going to be asking for this is Vlad Guerrero Jr. the star. This is

[00:20:07] going to cost you a lot. So he has a year and a half of club control. And for doing what he's

[00:20:12] done in the past. I don't think the Blue Jays at least in terms of a starting point of a

[00:20:17] trade package are going to start with okay, give up a couple of middling prospects or

[00:20:22] whatever it would cost. Consider this too. He's not going to be cheap next year.

[00:20:27] Forget the trade package. He's going to cost at least $26 million next year, if not more.

[00:20:33] Right? The record because he's a super two guy, which means you get an extra year of arbitration,

[00:20:38] two years of league minimum, four years of arbitration. He's making 20 this year.

[00:20:43] And he's still got a year of arbitration left to go. The Seattle Mariners have been well

[00:20:48] documented of not paying obscene amounts, obscene amounts of money to players they don't

[00:20:53] deem worth it, especially. And next year, given budget constraints, the future of root sports,

[00:21:01] whatever reshuffling the Mariners will eventually have to do on the business side this off season

[00:21:06] to make things work as their business model evolves a $26 million first baseman. Yeah.

[00:21:12] A 123 WRC plus is good. Is it worth in the eyes of Jared Apoto and Justin Hollander,

[00:21:20] who look at these things in a value sense? Would Vlad Guerrero Jr. right now make the Mariners

[00:21:26] lineup better? Absolutely. I think he would. If the price was not over the top, I would

[00:21:30] absolutely deal for Vlad Guerrero Jr. But this isn't just a this year thing for Vladik because

[00:21:35] you would have him on your roster next year as well. And as I mentioned, he offers no value

[00:21:39] defensively. He offers no value on the base paths and he can only play first base right

[00:21:46] now as he is. So that leaves you having to play him, having to pay him and pay an

[00:21:54] exorbitant amount of prospects for a first baseman in today's day and age slugging 385.

[00:22:01] Right? You get that right now. Do you feel like wow, Ty France figures things out? I'm

[00:22:07] not saying Ty Francis Ladgaro Jr. but Ty France can slug 385. Right? Yeah, for sure.

[00:22:15] There's no doubt about it. Yeah. So OK, so let's conclude with this right? And we can kind of

[00:22:20] conclude this way with every guy we talk about. Like you said, would he make the Mariners

[00:22:24] offense better? Yes. Is he right now a surefire guy? My answer is no. No, and not on

[00:22:30] the ballpark either. People have legitimate concerns of how hitters adapt to playing in

[00:22:36] T-Mobile Park. I honestly don't know how Vlad Guerrero Jr. would adapt to T-Mobile Park.

[00:22:41] Some people be very scared to find out. Very scared to find out the worst thing that can happen

[00:22:46] is that you trade for you trade for a guy in his physical prime and technically hitting prime

[00:22:54] to come to T-Mobile Park and struggle even more. A guy who already struggles to elevate

[00:22:58] the baseball when he does elevate the baseball, realize the ball's not flying anywhere.

[00:23:02] Right? It's not going over the fence. It's getting caught on the warning track.

[00:23:05] And as we can see, it affects guys a lot. So we're going to go through about six guys on this list

[00:23:13] and then there will be one additional one at the end. But we're going to go through six guys.

[00:23:16] So far, the answer is no for me, no from TJ on Vlad E. So candidate number one,

[00:23:23] it's a double well. Can I just say, I'll say, am I allowed to say maybe? Like I would.

[00:23:27] Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a surefire? No, he's not a surefire. OK, that's

[00:23:33] the question. Yes, that's the question. So not not would we acquire it? Right.

[00:23:37] We are collaborative one for one. So with that, let's move on to candidate number two.

[00:23:42] But we're not traveling very far to find them. In fact, we're not even traveling outside

[00:23:46] the Rogers Center. We're just moving over to his infield mate and Bo Bichette, who was also

[00:23:50] rumored to be on the trade block because the Blue Jays aren't winning games or 10 out of the

[00:23:54] A.L. East. They're not playing great. This roster feels like it's aged. It doesn't feel

[00:23:58] like it worked out. I'm not saying the Blue Jays are going to totally fire sale, but they may re

[00:24:03] tool some things here in the next year or so. And that could be at the deadline.

[00:24:08] Here's what Bo Bichette's done so far this year. He has a six thirty eight OPS three

[00:24:13] home runs in eighty four WRC plus six percent walk rate, fifteen percent K rate.

[00:24:19] He has a year and a half of club control just like Vlad. He does now.

[00:24:24] Bo Bichette has not had a good year defensively. Has he had good defensive

[00:24:27] years in the past? Yeah, he's not playing well defensively this year. However,

[00:24:32] because his overall package would entail and and and bring more defensive value period just

[00:24:41] because he's a middle infielder, not a first baseman and has played well defensively in

[00:24:44] the past. The asking price on Bichette may be higher than what it is for Vlad.

[00:24:49] The difference is Bichette's been about 30 percent worse as a hitter than Vlad so far

[00:24:54] So here we go again with yet another guy who is a household name, but isn't playing like it right

[00:24:59] now. He's a coin flip of what you get defensively at shortstop before we get to his bat.

[00:25:05] If you look at his defensive run saved by season, it's since twenty twenty one plus two

[00:25:11] minus sixteen plus five minus three. What are you getting? Like what are you getting?

[00:25:17] And again, these are peak physical years for Bo Bichette. What are you getting at shortstop?

[00:25:22] Right. So that's question number one, because if you trade for Bo Bichette,

[00:25:25] he's playing shortstop. You didn't trade for him to play second base.

[00:25:29] Are you sure? Are you sure they don't make him play second? Yeah, I'm pretty sure.

[00:25:34] And they don't have you on if you are giving up the capital, it's going to be required.

[00:25:39] Then I would assume so because Bo Bichette when he hits free agency is going to be a

[00:25:43] shortstop. So he's not I don't think going to a new team going to just step aside.

[00:25:49] Now, that's a question. Again, that's a bridge the Mariners would eventually have to cross. But

[00:25:53] inner feeling it feels like that he would he would be playing shortstop just just OK.

[00:25:59] But anyways, so money wise, he's making twelve this year. He's making seventeen and a

[00:26:04] half next year before he hits free agency. So like Flattie, he has a year and a half.

[00:26:08] And this is the conundrum the Blue Jays are in. They need to decide which one of their

[00:26:12] stars they're paying if they're going to pay starts. They have a pretty high payroll

[00:26:16] at this point. Anyways, they paid a lot of guys and now they have their two young stars

[00:26:20] coming up towards free agency. And if they want to get a deal done, they get a deal done.

[00:26:24] If they don't want to get a deal done with these guys who, like I said, are not trending

[00:26:29] necessarily in the right direction to earn themselves historical money at premium positions,

[00:26:35] it's not great for them. If you look at Bo to he's been a really good offensive player for

[00:26:40] most of his career. He's fallen off a cliff offensively this year in a year where he should

[00:26:45] not hit like his bat speeds, not declining really. But all of his quality of contact

[00:26:50] stats this year have been bad. I will note he had a terrible April, but he's

[00:26:54] been a little bit better in May is 114 WRC plus in May. That's good. But much like Vlad Lyle

[00:27:02] below average value in hitting fielding and base running by baseball Savan all three for

[00:27:10] someone who's not supposed to be slow, not supposed to be a bad defender and not supposed

[00:27:14] to be a bad hitter. And yet he is below average in all three. Boba Shet was a four F four player

[00:27:21] in 21 22 and 23. And now here in 2024, like you just highlighted, it's all trending down.

[00:27:27] You want to talk about his bat? He's not barreling anything up right now. He's not

[00:27:32] hitting the ball hard. And honestly, even if you want to put aside what the trade package

[00:27:37] would cost for a second, because it's still going to be a lot. Is Boba Shet a Mariners

[00:27:42] blueprint type of hitter? My answer to this is honestly, not really. Now if something

[00:27:47] drastic changes where he's just hitting flat out, like flat out hitting the crap out of

[00:27:52] the ball period, that's a different story. And if he had a 130 WRC plus right now,

[00:27:56] the Mariners may have a different opinion. But because he's not hitting and also paired with

[00:28:00] the fact that he does chase, he doesn't walk a lot. And the reason he doesn't walk a lot

[00:28:05] is because he swings at just about as many first pitches as anybody in baseball.

[00:28:10] It's not really what the Mariners preach offensively in terms of team philosophy.

[00:28:14] So between Bo not playing well right now, not really fitting the Mariners blueprint

[00:28:18] of a hitter and the fact he's going to cost a ton in a trade, maybe more than Vlad E.

[00:28:25] Is this your surefire guy? Here we go again. My answer is no.

[00:28:29] No, he's not. No. And a person like Bo has to make a lot of quality contact for his

[00:28:34] profile to be valuable because he doesn't have obscene power when he swings and he swings a lot.

[00:28:40] So if he's not making contact on all of these swings and he's not hitting for power,

[00:28:44] then you get what he's doing right now. He's slugging 349. He's not even getting on base

[00:28:48] 30% of the time. 30% of the time. Like this is an all-star, a past all-star bat

[00:28:55] who's getting on base has a 289 on base percentage right now because of his swing

[00:29:00] decisions. And his swing decisions aren't going to change. The Mariners are going to

[00:29:03] say, Hey, turn into Juan Soto and stop swinging. It's not, that's not his offensive

[00:29:07] profile. If he hits for a higher average, he's going to get on base more because he's

[00:29:13] getting more hits, not because he's walking more and it's going to be the same relative

[00:29:16] to his power. It's not like Vlad E. Vlad E. when he had his 2021 season, he hit,

[00:29:22] I think he hit above 300 that year, but he got on base a lot and he slugged a lot.

[00:29:28] And even if Vlad E's average goes down to 270, Vlad E still slugs a lot as long as he's

[00:29:33] elevating the baseball. Bo's not really that kind of hitter. So when we look at sure fire,

[00:29:40] this is a, this would be a risk. This would be almost a bigger risk than Vlad E. Even,

[00:29:44] even when you think about Vlad E, you'd say, okay, he's not elevating the ball,

[00:29:47] but again, still 23% better than league average as a bat. And we can see year after year

[00:29:52] after year, it is one 10 or above, but Bo doesn't, Bo with this year doesn't have that.

[00:29:57] Right. So no, he is not a sure fire, not, not even close.

[00:30:02] We're a collaborative two for two, two of the six guys so far we've only highlighted two

[00:30:08] so far in the episode, but two of the six guys were collaborative no one. So

[00:30:13] also before we get to number three here, very quick, how crazy is it that in the span

[00:30:17] of a few months, the blue J's have gone from Shohei is on a flight to Toronto to sign his

[00:30:21] contract to Vlad E and Bo might get traded. Someone needs to, someone needs to check on the

[00:30:27] whole country of Canada. See if they're doing all right. Yeah, they do. Okay. Let's get to

[00:30:33] our third guy here. Luis Robert, another guy that has a chance to be traded. He has more

[00:30:37] club control than both Vlad E and Bo. He has two and a half years of club control.

[00:30:42] We're not going to read a slash line because he's played seven games this year.

[00:30:46] It's got a 104 WRC plus in those seven games, which leads to the whole topic of this

[00:30:51] part of the conversation. Doesn't it? Luis Robert is a risky acquisition, not because of who he is

[00:30:57] as a player. Sure. He strikes out a decent amount. Doesn't walk a lot. You can probably

[00:31:02] live with that given everything else. Luis Robert does, because the profile itself outside

[00:31:07] of those two areas probably is the most sure fire thing. The issue is how often are you

[00:31:14] getting that profile? He's never on the field. Luis Roberts played over a hundred games

[00:31:20] once in his career. That was last year. He's played seven so far this year. He's been on

[00:31:26] the IL and he is going to cost probably more than both Vlad E and Bo because he's got more

[00:31:33] club control. He's probably got more star power and he plays fantastic outfield defense.

[00:31:40] So this is a polarizing player. We've talked about them in the past. Where are we at now?

[00:31:48] Do you think they take Brian Wu for him right now? Hell yeah, they take Brian Wu for him.

[00:31:53] We're never offering that again for all the white socks at fans and people that got in our

[00:31:57] replies and jumped in our DMS. Guess what deals off. This would be a, this would be a risk, man.

[00:32:06] I don't know if it would be a true all in push. If you're pushing like all your chips would be on

[00:32:14] the table at this point, if you're trading for Luis Robert, you can't rely on him to be on the

[00:32:18] field for more than 80 games a year and you need them on the field, man. We're like Mariners

[00:32:24] are trying to win baseball games and win a lot of baseball games. They've had a relatively

[00:32:29] healthy year lineup wise, a few dinks here and there, but for the most part again,

[00:32:34] now that they're back in May, they're healthy. But Luis Robert played for a week and has missed

[00:32:39] every game since, every game since he was just back on a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex

[00:32:44] league of all places, hitting home runs against poor like 19 year olds this week. But

[00:32:51] as much as it, as much as it excites me and he's, he said past seasons where he doesn't

[00:32:55] strike out a whole lot while the power stays there. He's incredible defensively in center

[00:33:00] field. He wouldn't play center because Julio is just as good in center as he is. You put him in

[00:33:05] the corner if you trade for him, you would have one of the best outfield defenses in baseball,

[00:33:09] which I cannot tell you how valuable that is to a pitching staff to cover all that ground

[00:33:13] with that defense. But you have to, you would have to justify a monumental trade package

[00:33:20] for someone you might see for half a season until he proves it. It's like Mitch Garver

[00:33:24] until he proves it. You can't rely on him to play more than 80 games a year. And at

[00:33:28] least all you had to do for Mitch Garver was sign him to a contract and pay money to him.

[00:33:32] Luis Robert, you'd be paying. He's not overly expensive due 12 and a half this year, 15 next

[00:33:38] year. He's got two club options after that for 20 million a piece. So you have to pay him

[00:33:44] and you would stomach, you would have to stomach an unbelievable trade package for him

[00:33:50] to acquire him. Is he available? Probably the white sucks are awful. They are horrendous.

[00:33:56] They have no direction right now. And I think many of White Sox nation would accept a Luis

[00:34:02] Robert trade at this point, because his contract's going to run out before they're competitive,

[00:34:07] or before they're totally competitive. And for how they're set up, I think they would be

[00:34:12] kind of naive to not get a monumental trade package to kick off a rebuild

[00:34:17] for him. Question is, do the Mariners want to do it? And I, to be honest, I don't know,

[00:34:23] because you and I are both in agreement that the Mariners do need impact, absolutely need impact.

[00:34:28] It is there's no more skirting along the margins. But as Luis Robert surefire? No,

[00:34:34] no, he's not. This is the last chip the White Sox have in their hand at the table.

[00:34:41] Now it's a $100 chip, because he is a very, very valuable player. But all the more reason

[00:34:47] that if the White Sox move on from him, I think Chris gets in that front office. No,

[00:34:52] they have to get that one right. Because like you said, the White Sox have no direction.

[00:34:56] They are not set up for success anytime soon. Honestly, the return they got for Dylan Cease,

[00:35:02] at least from afar, didn't seem all that great. Which makes the reason of trading Luis Robert

[00:35:08] so important in terms of if they're going to get players back, they have to get it right.

[00:35:13] Which makes me think if the Mariners were going to call, they would ask for three of

[00:35:17] the Mariners top 10 prospects or something like that. And if that's the case, can you give that

[00:35:22] much up for a guy who might play 150 games over the next two and a half years? That would be a

[00:35:28] disaster if the answer is yes. Speaking of White Sox outfielders, do you remember when

[00:35:33] people wanted to sign Andrew Benentendi? Do you remember that? He's been terrible.

[00:35:37] He's on pace to be the worst to have the worst season ever by war. Yeah, by the way,

[00:35:42] do you remember that? Like we're on the topic of White Sox outfield. Yeah, so had

[00:35:45] to throw that in. Trading for Luis Robert would be the riskiest trade Jerry DePoto and

[00:35:51] Justin Hollander have ever made. I don't think that's even a hot take. Yeah. So and and and

[00:35:57] I joked about at the beginning they wouldn't if Luis Robert had a proven track record of

[00:36:02] playing 120 to 140 games a season. Abs like absolutely I think a starting pitching pitcher

[00:36:08] would be on the table for this, not for Luis Robert playing 80 a year. So in conclusion,

[00:36:15] he's a really exciting player. If this trade hypothetically happened, I'm sure I'd twist my

[00:36:20] brain to get myself excited because I know how good he is. Everybody knows how good he is.

[00:36:24] But to once again answer our one liner question, is he a sure fire guy? Because

[00:36:31] of his health? My answer is no. Yeah, so with you. So now we're three for three.

[00:36:37] We're we're half we're sort of half the way through again. We have one extra guy at the

[00:36:41] end. But here let's jump to guy number four here. Here's who I've got for the fourth guy on our

[00:36:45] list. It's Brent Rooker of the Oakland A's. Brent Rooker is lighting the world on fire

[00:36:51] right now. He's got a 952 OPS 11 home runs 172 WRC plus he walks a little over 9% of the time

[00:36:59] strikes out over 31% of the time that K rate is high and he's got four and a half years

[00:37:06] of club control. This is a guy that if you trade for him, he is going to be in your long term

[00:37:12] plans. He will be a Mariner for a very long time. If the Mariners pull off this trade,

[00:37:17] and because he's not a household name and does not have the track record of the aforementioned

[00:37:21] guys in this subject or in this podcast topic, he shouldn't cost as much as the others.

[00:37:28] The question though becomes again, we'll leave the one liner for the end but do you trust

[00:37:34] him because this is also a guy that's bounced around in his career. He didn't even really find

[00:37:40] his footing in one spot till he was 28 years old. He played about 80 big league games before

[00:37:44] making an all star game with the A's last year and he strikes out a lot and he doesn't

[00:37:50] play great defense. So I'm rambling on a little bit here, but point being do you trust them?

[00:37:56] One percent more that that strikeout rate makes me nervous.

[00:38:00] Like the Mariners already have so much. He is a really good player. I mean, really,

[00:38:05] really good 172 WRC plus this season. He's nearly slugging 600. That's unbelievable.

[00:38:10] Mariners would kill for that in their lineup right now. I mean, seriously,

[00:38:14] but the profile itself like he walks at an average rate and strikes it a lot and does

[00:38:20] not play defense. He's a DH. So maybe, maybe long term because again, if you trade

[00:38:26] for Rooker, he'd be with you for a long time. Maybe over an off season, you try to transition

[00:38:32] them to first base just have him play first base because his outfield defense is really bad.

[00:38:36] Yeah, his outfield defense is horrendous. So you could try that. You have to have a long

[00:38:40] term vision with Brent Rooker. I'm also not totally sold. He would be cheaper. He wouldn't

[00:38:46] cost what Luis Robert would cost but cheap is not a word I would throw around for someone

[00:38:50] with four years of control. The A's would hold the chips in this because they don't like

[00:38:54] they don't have to move them. Like I said, they're they have them. They'll have him until

[00:38:58] they're in Vegas. At this point, you think about it four years, they will probably be in

[00:39:02] Vegas. They don't mess mess it up before then. But that's a long time. So there's no pressure

[00:39:11] on the A's to do anything with Brent Rooker. So the Mariners would have to make it worth

[00:39:16] their time to move someone like him into vision. Strikeouts are kind of concerning,

[00:39:21] judging what we've seen from the Mariners lineup and strikeouts this season, given

[00:39:26] that he holds up the fact that yeah, I love hitting in T-Mobile Park. This is my favorite

[00:39:30] place to hit. And he backs that up with actual good play at T-Mobile Park opposed to

[00:39:36] outside hitters like Teoscar Hernandez coming into T-Mobile Park and really struggling

[00:39:40] and not being able to get the ball up and over the fence and hit consistently.

[00:39:43] Consistently. That's it. The offensive profile is there. It's not perfect but

[00:39:49] for this season, it's pretty good. He's an outlier when it comes to offensive performance

[00:39:54] in 2024 given from what we've seen for the rest of the league.

[00:39:58] So in conclusion, strikes out a lot, doesn't play good defense, may not have an exact

[00:40:05] position if he were traded for with the Mariners already having a DH and Garver.

[00:40:09] So here's the one liner once again, is this your surefire guy?

[00:40:15] No, you would also be trading for him at his value as a one. He probably won't be at 172 by

[00:40:21] the time if he's available at the deadline, but they would sell him above where he is. He is

[00:40:26] not a 172 WRC plus hitter. He's probably at his peak more like of what he did last year at

[00:40:32] 127. 127 is a lot cheaper than 172. Right. He's a good hitter. He loves Seattle. I

[00:40:42] love talking to Brent Rooker when we did the content with him for whatever it's worth. Awesome

[00:40:46] dude, but in terms of what the Mariners would have to probably give up for a little over four

[00:40:50] years of him and he strikes out a lot and the defense isn't great. Honestly, I had to think a

[00:40:56] little bit more about this one than the others funny enough just because he doesn't have injury

[00:41:01] risk at least as of now. He isn't totally falling off a cliff like Bo Bichette. So I gave

[00:41:06] it a little more thought. And again, I expect him to be cost a little bit less than somebody

[00:41:11] like Robert, but sure fire again considering he didn't really find his footing till so late

[00:41:17] in his career. Yeah. My answer is no to this. He could be a good player, but he's not the

[00:41:22] sure fire Jeff passing definition that he gave at least in my opinion. Yeah, I'm with you.

[00:41:28] That would be, this would be someone I would be interested in if he was available,

[00:41:31] but sure fire. Absolutely not. You can't, you can't stamp him in.

[00:41:35] So now we're four for four collaborative on what will be six guys. We break down.

[00:41:41] Here's the fifth guy. Now we're going to get into some rentals a couple.

[00:41:45] Pete Alonzo, he has a seven 79 OPS this year with the Mets 11 home runs 123 WRC plus

[00:41:53] 9% walk rate 19% K rate and he is a free agent at the end of the year.

[00:41:59] Jerry DePoto and Justin Hollander do not make rental trades. They really haven't

[00:42:04] for impact guys at least. So would they change their line of thinking this year

[00:42:10] to go get two months of Pete Alonzo? He will, he won't cost a ton because he's

[00:42:15] going to be here for two months, but does he move the needle and is this worth it?

[00:42:22] He moves the needle. If you really, if, if it gets to the point where you feel like you

[00:42:26] need to replace Ty France at first base, then yes, he moves the needle. Pete's defense at

[00:42:31] first base is not great, but you stick them at first base for two months to attempt to

[00:42:35] go win the division and go make the playoffs. Cause he could absolutely be an impact. He's not

[00:42:40] what he once was. He's declined a little bit as he's gotten closer to 30. Well age 24,

[00:42:46] he had 144 WRC plus 25 to 27, 134 age 28 and 29. He's been at 121 still good,

[00:42:55] but not quite as good as he was in the past. He has slug 40 homers each of the last

[00:42:59] two seasons. He could still reach 40 homers this season. He might end up a little bit below that,

[00:43:04] but he has got solid 35 plus home run potential. And for the sake Lyle,

[00:43:09] that that's exactly what the Mariners need. They don't need, like they don't need like

[00:43:14] Wonsodo would be great. You and I would like take Wonsodo, but for the price of what Pete

[00:43:20] would take and what they need offensively. If we're like, if we're talking sure fire,

[00:43:28] not many guys who hit as many home runs as Pete Alonzo. So I would say for a two month rental.

[00:43:32] Yep. Yes. He is sure fire. I feel a little differently. A lot of bad at ball profiles,

[00:43:38] not great. His WRC plus is the same as Vladdy right now. I know he doesn't strike out a lot.

[00:43:44] Also doesn't play great defense. You're not acquiring them for his defense. Yes. But

[00:43:48] like again, you just pointed out he's declining. He's not the same guy he was when he was putting

[00:43:54] up a 130 to 140 WRC. You don't have to worry about his future at all. This is this would be

[00:43:59] a straight rental. He's a Boris guy. He is hitting free agency and he is going to seek the

[00:44:03] highest contract, the biggest contract he can get. And most likely it's not going to be from

[00:44:08] Seattle because this isn't their player, but for what they need this season to make a playoff

[00:44:14] run surefire for two months of a 35 home run 35 plus home run guy at first base

[00:44:23] for a lineup that needs an infusion of power. I like for two months. Yes.

[00:44:30] That's why I'd be more I'd be more inclined to say yes about the next guy we're going to

[00:44:33] talk about to be honest with you too. I would say both can both can be yes.

[00:44:38] Yes.

[00:44:40] My whole thing is does he does he make the offense better? Yes. Does he level them up?

[00:44:46] I honestly don't know. I guess the launch angle is not great right now. He's not hitting

[00:44:50] the ball as hard as he has in years past. Again, his profile is just not as good right

[00:44:54] now and you're talking about moving them into T-Mobile Park and that's if Jerry

[00:44:58] and Justin even agree to trade for a rental. I have my questions about Pete Alonso too.

[00:45:03] Seyfield's not the best hitters Park though. I will say no, it's not like he's it's not

[00:45:08] like he's coming from Philly or Cincinnati or something like it. He is not going to

[00:45:13] give you much value elsewhere in shirt maybe like a total level up while like

[00:45:18] I like to you frame that no but better. Yes and the Mariners do need better.

[00:45:24] They do. But again, I don't think this really fits the passing description surefire.

[00:45:31] He can be good. I don't know if he's a superstar for two months. I don't know if the Mariners

[00:45:37] acquiring Pete Alonso would be the equivalent to when the Rangers acquired Jordan Montgomery

[00:45:44] at the deadline and he was awesome for them for two months. I don't know if it would be

[00:45:47] the equivalent of that. I really don't. So yes, I have my hesitations about it. He would

[00:45:52] still certainly cost you something and ultimately again, I can't stress this part enough. I don't

[00:45:56] even know if Jerry and Justin consider this. Yeah, I don't know if they do either but

[00:46:00] if we're just answering the surefire question, I would put Pete Alonso in that bucket.

[00:46:06] Okay, so that brings us to our last guy and then we kind of have one honorable mention

[00:46:12] Christian Walker, the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's got an 816 OPS 10 home runs 133 WRC plus

[00:46:19] 13% walk rate about a 23% strikeout rate and he like Pete Alonso is also a free agent at

[00:46:27] the end of the year. Now Walker's profile looks much better right now than Alonso's

[00:46:32] does. It's a ton of red hitting the ball hard, hitting the ball in the air. Awesome

[00:46:36] defender by the way for a guy who plays first base he's in the 99th percentile

[00:46:42] about above average. He's racked up seven so far this year. So again, two months

[00:46:49] but is this something you're interested in? I said Pete surefire. This guy is definitely

[00:46:54] surefire if he's available for the Diamondbacks. They're sitting at 500 so it's not even a

[00:47:00] guarantee he's available. They could push for a wild card spot and they keep him and he continues

[00:47:06] to be a valuable part of their team because he's a valuable player. There's not many holes

[00:47:10] in his offensive profile and he's got good, not Pete Alonso power but 30 plus homer power.

[00:47:16] Yes, your defense at first base will be held down. Yes, he'll walk. Yes, you won't strike out

[00:47:22] an absurd rate. Yes, that's everything you want from a first baseman. That's in terms of all the

[00:47:27] guys we've looked at like this is it. This is it. Of the guys we have highlighted,

[00:47:35] this is the guy I feel most comfortable trading for but it's not something Jerry and Justin

[00:47:42] usually do. Again, don't usually trade for impact rental pieces and then you only have

[00:47:47] him for two months too. If you're talking about trying to win in 2024, sure Christian Walker can

[00:47:53] help you but if you're going for the long-term outlook of the Mariners needing bats moving

[00:47:59] forward too, you're kind of out of luck with that because if the two guys you're most

[00:48:05] confident in are Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, in my case Christian Walker,

[00:48:09] that's only for two months. Then you have to go back to the drawing board. You hope Tyler

[00:48:13] Locklear can come up either late 2024 or 2025 and be your guy. Maybe you sign somebody in

[00:48:19] free agency, maybe you trade somebody for somebody in the off season but this is not a long-term

[00:48:24] plan. This would be go for it in 2024. You and I have talked about this at some point.

[00:48:33] It doesn't need to be, the question needs to stop being asked, can this guy win for us now

[00:48:37] and in the future? The philosophy of Jerry and Justin of wanting to just give themselves a

[00:48:45] chance year after year after year after year, as many bites of the apple as possible, is the

[00:48:49] Dodgers example. They have the best team in baseball nearly every single season yet they

[00:48:53] have one World Series and a shortened season to show for it because it is really,

[00:48:57] really hard to win but eventually you have to take a risk to make your roster better

[00:49:06] because if you put up the guardrails to saying the guy needs to help us this year, next year,

[00:49:11] and the year after that, that shortens the pool of what is available and those guys are

[00:49:16] more expensive. So if the Mariners arrive in the middle of July and they look, man we

[00:49:23] really need first base production, like really need first base production, if we can get first

[00:49:27] base production this year, we really have a chance. Look at this rotation. At that point

[00:49:34] you get to mid-July and you see your rotation, like we can win a World Series with this rotation,

[00:49:39] you go and say I'm okay with the rental at this point. It's okay. Test free agency,

[00:49:45] we'll make him an offer. We'll have a two month sales pitch to him to play here in

[00:49:49] Seattle. He'll play some really exciting baseball. At some point I think it has to become an

[00:49:54] option. You can't just say no to one of the most important parts of this market every

[00:50:01] single year and that's the rental guys available at the deadline. They can be absolute difference

[00:50:06] makers. Like you said Montgomery, look at Jordan Montgomery and the impact he made with the Texas

[00:50:10] Rangers. Was that a swing? Absolutely it was a swing but Jordan Montgomery was an enormous

[00:50:17] piece of the Texas Rangers winning a World Series last season. They don't regret for a second

[00:50:22] trading for him. It's true. However we are not Jerry DePoto and Justin Hollander so if

[00:50:29] you happen to be listening to this and you're in the boat of people that doesn't like the idea of

[00:50:33] a rental trade then every guy we just outlined, at least from TJ and I, is a collaborative no

[00:50:40] on is this player a surefire guy. If you are in the boat of okay I'm good with the rental

[00:50:46] then even still your surefire guy isn't going to be here long term. This is the guy we're

[00:50:52] going to end with and it's somebody we've talked about in past episodes. People can rip

[00:50:56] on the Kyle Tucker idea all they want but you just heard TJ and I throughout the course of most

[00:51:01] of this podcast list out just about every guy that's a really good bat that might be on the

[00:51:07] trade block this summer and every single one of them has hesitations whether it's time length

[00:51:14] on their contract, injuries or their offensive profile trending down. Rip on it all you want. You

[00:51:21] want to rip on the Kyle Tucker thing fine. Give us another bat that either we didn't talk about

[00:51:28] or one of the guys we talked about that you feel more confident about for the Mariners trading

[00:51:32] forum. You want to talk about surefire Jeff Passon's surefire guy right saying you can't

[00:51:39] thread the needle on a trade, you can't miss on a trade, you've got to make it happen and

[00:51:43] make sure the guy is going to do it not just do his job for you be a stud for you. That's

[00:51:50] it. That's the guy. Now there's a million roadblocks they'd have to jump by making that trade. I get it

[00:51:56] we know that we're not dumb believe it or not but if you're talking about who's the surefire guy

[00:52:02] yeah it's him. It's him. That's my take. Yeah well he has been the best hitter in

[00:52:08] baseball this year arguably so that helps. He's on Facebook like 60 bombs. Now let me say

[00:52:14] this too if the Mariners were to make that trade which again is very unlikely even to begin with

[00:52:21] if they were to make that trade and give up the king's ransom that it would probably cost to

[00:52:26] get Kyle Tucker I would bet you that means they think they have a chance to extend them

[00:52:31] because I'm going to be honest I don't think Jerry DePoto and Justin Hollander are trading

[00:52:35] a ton of guys away from their farm that they really trust and believe in for just a year and

[00:52:40] a half similar to Luis Castillo who was traded for and shortly after extended and them talking

[00:52:45] about they very clearly had a vision to extend Luis once they got him. I think it'd be the same

[00:52:49] thing here if they were to trade for him if the trade were to go through you get the pass

[00:52:55] a notification saying Mariners are in agreement for a trade for Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker

[00:52:59] that would signal to me the Mariners think they can extend them and I know some of you

[00:53:03] are going to say well that involves Mariners ownership plopping down a 250 million dollar

[00:53:08] contract for him yes all the more reason sounds good well sounds good to us but yes you saying

[00:53:14] the Mariners ownership would never do that yes all the more reason this is unlikely right

[00:53:18] but I'm saying if in this hypothetical situation this trade were to happen and it went through

[00:53:25] that's your signal that the Mariners think they can extend them because they're not

[00:53:28] giving up everything they'd have to give up in their farm for just a year and a half so

[00:53:33] if you want to talk about surefire unlikely as it is in my opinion that's the guy and guys

[00:53:39] if you miss if we missed anyone that you think we should have highlighted for surefire or that

[00:53:44] you think is surefire please leave us a comment in the youtube section if you're listening go

[00:53:48] over to youtube leave us a comment on the episode send us an email send us a dm open to ideas

[00:53:55] but I think that was a general sense of what we think will be available at the deadline

[00:54:00] August yeah and I know we're still about two months away but there's plenty of talk about

[00:54:04] it right now and I think we did a pretty good job of breaking down all the different guys that

[00:54:09] could be available that are household names and why or why not they make they might be suitable

[00:54:13] so yeah if you've got any other ideas tell us drop a comment in the youtube comments like

[00:54:18] tj said dm us whatever you want not only is it good to talk about but it is pretty clear

[00:54:23] the Mariners will need it not not even it is clear as day now in May that the Mariners

[00:54:28] will need to make a trade if not make a big trade coming up as August gets near if they

[00:54:34] if they want to be a serious competitor for a world series it's going to need to happen

[00:54:39] let's go down on the farm who you got this week Lyle so I know we spent a lot of time

[00:54:47] on that last segment so we can try to rip through these a little bit and I do have

[00:54:51] somebody I do just want to quickly highlight before that however how good Harry Ford and

[00:54:55] Lazaro Montez have been those are not our guys because they were so blatantly obvious

[00:54:59] we wanted to give some other guys some some love and a shout out but my god those two are just

[00:55:05] lighting the world on fire Lazaro Montez by the way for everybody concerned about a strikeout rate

[00:55:10] at least back when he was in the DSL is now striking out 16 percent of the time in Modesto

[00:55:15] while walking 15 percent of the time is that good pretty good is that good yeah I

[00:55:21] refuse to put the pressure on him by saying Jordan Alvarez it's not fair it's not fair

[00:55:25] to him it's not fair to anybody to anybody however I will say this his time with the

[00:55:32] Modesto nuts he has hit like Jordan Alvarez I will say that and he's got a long way to go too

[00:55:38] but love what we're seeing from Laz he you know he's due for a promotion here soon

[00:55:43] so that's good for him and shout out to Harry Ford man holy crap yeah his OPS is now over

[00:55:50] 900 in double yeah that's great oh I mean ever since that cold streak that he began the season

[00:55:55] with he's well over a thousand like yeah this is this dude's first venture into double A and

[00:56:00] he he's got an on-base percentage I think over that stretch of 500 it's crazy yeah anyway

[00:56:07] two of the guys we actually want to highlight as our guy on this segment I pick Cole Young

[00:56:11] for this because I think a lot of people saw him get off to a slow start in Arkansas too

[00:56:15] 20 years old it's not that shocking to be honest you have to jump from high A to double A

[00:56:20] that's the hardest jump in the minor leagues to make it's an adjustment but now look what he's

[00:56:25] done in the month of May he is slashing 283 368 483 that's an 851 OPS for the month

[00:56:34] and three home runs so yeah I'm not shocked the first few weeks were a bit of a struggle

[00:56:38] for him I also know he's an incredibly good hitter and if you give him some time to figure

[00:56:42] it out he'll figure it out now he's settled in now he's figured it out and he's looking like the

[00:56:48] Cole Young that Mariners fans have gotten used to seeing since he was drafted yeah super super

[00:56:52] exciting for him just remember how young he is too like he's a year behind Harry Harry's

[00:56:58] torching double A himself with a year more of experience than Cole Young has so

[00:57:03] to see Cole Young doing this and while again playing an extremely valuable defensive position

[00:57:08] is good to see and he'll finish out the year in double A and he'll get his licks against all

[00:57:13] these double A guys to get him ready for the big leagues hopefully sometime next year

[00:57:17] my guy I don't think I hadn't heard of Will Schomburg before I looked him up because I

[00:57:23] was thinking like who should we shout out this week so Will Schomburg signed with the Mariners

[00:57:28] as an undrafted free agent in last year's draft played at Davidson in college he was

[00:57:33] fine he's a starter his senior year but otherwise he was a fine college pitcher

[00:57:39] signed an undrafted deal with the Mariners comes over he starts in Modesto as a 23 year old a

[00:57:43] little bit older but Will Schomburg has a 1 8 9 ERA and 38 innings he's made all eight of

[00:57:50] his starts this year in Modesto leads the team in strikeouts he struck out 48 while walking

[00:57:56] just 17 he's really good control the strike zone overall and yeah shout out to him like

[00:58:04] he's not any top 30 lists he's not like not not making headlines he's been good if not like

[00:58:13] a full step better than most of the other pitchers on that Modesto roster Modesto is

[00:58:17] having an unbelievable season their offense gets a lot of love the pitching's been fine

[00:58:22] but Will Schomburg has been really good for that rotation so shout out to him Will why don't you

[00:58:26] give you a little bit of love yeah it's awesome hopefully he gets a promotion to Everett this year

[00:58:31] hopefully he keeps pitching well you never know right not everybody is a blue chip prospect when

[00:58:36] they debut obviously guys find their ways up to the big leagues in other ways we'll see how

[00:58:41] he progresses 1 8 9 ERA and in his time in Modesto that's noteworthy I'm sure the Mariners

[00:58:47] have seen it I'm sure they noticed so awesome in a hitters league too yeah not not easy to do

[00:58:53] one last quick little minor league note and this sucks but Colt Emerson is going to be out

[00:58:57] four to six weeks I said it's an ankle thing so in his first season full season of pro ball

[00:59:03] he's had an oblique issue now an ankle issue that really sucks hopefully recovers quickly and

[00:59:09] gets back on the field so you know we'll see how he recovers hopefully yeah it's a recovery

[00:59:14] I know it sucks and Ty Pete's been out a few days too I think he's close to returning but

[00:59:20] yeah there's been some injuries throughout the system this year that's for sure

[00:59:22] it's too bad anyway let's get to our Russell Wilson up of the week and shout out to John

[00:59:29] Boy for this breakdown because he did it just the other day the game itself he broke down

[00:59:35] is from about a week and a half ago but we just had to highlight this so Ben May is our

[00:59:42] winner this week you want to break this one down teach so Ben May in this Marlins Tigers game

[00:59:48] makes a couple of bad strike calls like well off the plate strike calls and the Marlins dug

[00:59:54] out was chirping at him he's like all right stop stop stop enough stop chirping at me

[00:59:59] and eventually someone says something else I think was one of their bench coaches says it

[01:00:05] and the umpire turns and just says you're gone now notice I didn't use a name there I

[01:00:10] just said you're gone so skip Schumacher comes out of the dugout Marlins manager he's like

[01:00:17] well I didn't say like I didn't say anything who got tossed and he's like

[01:00:20] and the umpire points to the dugout has said whoever just said that and skip goes

[01:00:26] who who said that and the umpire Ben May points again to the dugout is like whoever

[01:00:31] just said that and essentially that's the gist of the video that John Boy titles umpire

[01:00:36] has no idea who he ejected a breakdown and essentially it results in Ben May asking skip

[01:00:44] Schumacher to choose which one of his bench coaches gets tossed out of the game how

[01:00:53] like is there going to be repercussions for this you're gone but nobody's specific

[01:00:58] yeah like like pick somebody on your roster on your coaching staff to be ejected out of the

[01:01:04] game it's your pick skip Schumacher will actually let you choose your choose your guy here what

[01:01:12] how how like if you should at least know who you're tossing out of the game before

[01:01:17] you toss someone see this is like like the untapped power of the ejection in baseball

[01:01:22] it like unlike football unlike hockey unlike basketball like you say one wrong thing you're

[01:01:28] done you're done you have no chance to save yourself in the game but the fact that like

[01:01:33] you don't even need to see who like what who is actually like doing something that warrants

[01:01:38] them getting tossed out of the game and you just toss them without even looking

[01:01:43] just it you know i think ben may should have like learned his lesson from who's the umpire

[01:01:49] who tossed Aaron Boone for what the fan said do you remember who that was hunter Wendell

[01:01:52] sat hunter when i'll say yeah he should have taken a note from hunter Wendell stat maybe

[01:01:57] looking to see someone say something physically but we're just throwing it out otherwise you

[01:02:01] know you throw someone out for something someone else said and then you just say oh

[01:02:06] oh well not my problem umpires are always on such a power trip i like this is why these

[01:02:13] things need to be publicly announced if umpires face repercussions just how when players are

[01:02:19] sent down to the minor leagues it's publicized we should we should have the right to know this

[01:02:25] because otherwise we have no idea if these umpires ever have any ability or show any

[01:02:31] willingness to learn from their mistakes because this is so ridiculous that this happened just

[01:02:36] pick somebody to throw out of the game because i don't like what somebody said who was it i have

[01:02:41] no idea sad sad what a group of guys what a group of guys all right let's get to let's

[01:02:49] close out the show and get to speak your mind speak your mind spoke that would be unwise

[01:02:59] what is necessary is never unwise what's on your mind this week lyle this one's short

[01:03:06] because i know you have a little bit of a longer talking point but in terms of music

[01:03:12] this song million dollar baby that's out right now by tommy richmond i'm in this

[01:03:17] phase with it we're currently at this very moment i really like it and it's very it's it's clearly

[01:03:22] a very popular song it's all over tiktok it's all over social media just a song that's being

[01:03:27] played a lot in general right now i'm trying to figure out how long i'm gonna like it for

[01:03:33] because this very very quickly seems like it's going to be one of those songs that gets

[01:03:38] insanely overplayed to the point where it's going to drive people crazy so that's what i

[01:03:42] say june 15th over under yeah that feels about right it's going to be one of those songs it's

[01:03:49] one of those songs of the summer right where it's going to be non-stop everywhere you go

[01:03:53] whether it's on the radio whether it's at a restaurant whether it's at a sporting event no

[01:03:57] matter where you go you're probably going to hear this song that's how it feels right now

[01:04:02] so as we sit i really like the song i think it's a good song i think very quickly people

[01:04:08] are going to wear it out well welcome to music i know where have you been well i know it's just

[01:04:14] too bad because again we're sitting right now i like the song but i i know it's going to get

[01:04:18] way over played so here's an idea then you should just only talk shit about the song and

[01:04:22] just badmouth it to everyone around you so they stop listening to it and then eventually

[01:04:26] hope that it gets into other people and you start a movement and they play it less than

[01:04:32] you can listen to it more that's not a bad idea but we'll see how many people i could

[01:04:36] actually convince with a movement like that i don't know well you started movements before

[01:04:41] oh that's true however again if it's on at t-mobile park for example right i can't go up i can't

[01:04:48] tell the people playing the music just shut it off well you could try it might be the last

[01:04:52] time you do that but you could try so that's the thing it's going to be played in all these

[01:04:57] public settings you know that it's just like it's one of those songs you can tell it's

[01:05:00] going to be very popular so yeah i like it for now we'll see how much longer

[01:05:06] my speaker mind this week uh is a bit of a larger topic so some background the nba media rights

[01:05:13] deal is done now i think it's gonna be espn and nbc primarily nbc is gonna bring back their

[01:05:18] saturday night game of the week i believe it was in this new package so that means a couple

[01:05:24] things one turner sports aka tnt and tbs are no longer gonna carry the nba and that made me kind

[01:05:31] of sad that the inside the nba with shack kenny charles and ernie johnson won't be the same

[01:05:40] i guess it sounds like charles sparkly wants to hire everybody to his own production company

[01:05:46] and they essentially sell it as an independent show to go on i don't know amazon or something

[01:05:51] i think amazon was what i heard floated out there amazon's also in this new nba rights package

[01:05:56] so that's kind of sad because i was thinking about it this way now that the nba rights package

[01:06:01] is done you know what that means right lial expansion's coming like it will happen the

[01:06:07] sonics like almost assuredly will like the the ball is rolling now to get teams expanded

[01:06:14] into the league and get the league up to or sorry the association up to 32 teams it'll be

[01:06:19] vegas and it will be seattle the arena is already there they're ready to go it's just they just need

[01:06:25] to cross the t's and dot the i's and exchange billions of dollars of expansion fees to get this

[01:06:31] stuff done so it's kind of like it's kind of sad i will get to hear charles barkley mock

[01:06:35] anything about the sonics when katie eventually comes back and he sits at a game oh i can't

[01:06:41] wait now i think the inside the nba guys should absolutely do that if they go independent

[01:06:46] people will absolutely still listen to them they're the most popular pre-game post-game show out

[01:06:50] there period by far yeah if if they go independent people are going to follow them they should yeah

[01:06:57] but the sonics coming back dude i can't wait i've had that take forever and it sounds like

[01:07:03] the two of us were in unison about it i don't know if it's going to be for one year i don't

[01:07:06] know if it's going to be for two years i don't know if it's going to be for longer but my

[01:07:09] take for a long time has been when the sonics come back for at least one year maybe

[01:07:14] the last year of his career katie will be in seattle fully believe that i'm pretty sure katie

[01:07:19] has said that he wants to come back when they come back if he's still playing it makes sense

[01:07:25] let's get katie and brawny on the team i think that would be extremely fun

[01:07:32] is is brawny going to be the 12th guy on the roster sure that's fine think of the marketing

[01:07:38] that's true you won't be able to stop talking about it

[01:07:41] it will be more attention than any seattle team has ever gotten and that includes the legion of boom

[01:07:47] i can only imagine like scrolling on twitter to then pop up a storyline that's from skip

[01:07:55] bales that says did brawny james give a fan the stink guy on the bench last night in seattle

[01:08:01] next on undisputed because he's not going to plan all that much but is skip bales

[01:08:06] going to find ways to talk about lebron and brawny yep and if he's in seattle it's going

[01:08:10] to be something like that did he give a fan a bad look in the stands next on maybe i think

[01:08:15] that's the only chance we'll get stephen a on the mini mic for an interview if we eventually

[01:08:20] make our way down onto the court for sonics games the only way we'll get stephen a will be

[01:08:25] if the sonics are in town and brawny is there we got it like get brawny here get the media

[01:08:30] attention focused on seattle it's going to be an absolute like mess like i an absolute mess of

[01:08:38] storylines and stuff i don't know if we're all ready again for the drama

[01:08:42] of the nba to come back wow i don't know if we're ready but at least it will mean that

[01:08:47] stephen a comes back and he's going to be spewing off some just garbage hot take

[01:08:52] on the live nba pre-game show maybe when the nicks are in town the the the if espn wants to

[01:08:57] roll that back again what they did against the pacers last week but just to just to have that

[01:09:03] i think that would the idea of that is uh is really fun speaking of those storylines like

[01:09:08] can you met like the the idea of like an nba storyline back in seattle not like dead serious

[01:09:15] about the nfl not major league baseball or complaining about bullpen decisions and roster

[01:09:20] churn and all that no we're going to be talking about like like why is kd sitting out

[01:09:25] a third straight game i feel like the two of us would probably get back into basketball a

[01:09:30] little bit more i know the two of us don't sit and at least in the regular season watch

[01:09:34] too many nba games but i bet you with the sonics back actually i know what the sonics back

[01:09:39] i would yeah and the town would too like the the economy of it would thrive right so much

[01:09:45] people miss it so much the amount of people that would buy season tickets like that because

[01:09:49] the nba is back and i'll and i'll say it again when the thunder come to town they are going to get

[01:09:55] booed like no other and you're gonna see shay gilder's alexander and chet homerun looking

[01:10:00] around being like dude we were 10 years old or less when they got shipped out of town how are

[01:10:05] we getting booed but it doesn't matter to these seattle fans when the thunder come to

[01:10:09] town they're getting booed hard what are the odds they know why they're getting booed

[01:10:14] do you think they do well do you think any do you think there will be a player on the oklahoma

[01:10:20] city 12 the the 12 guys on the roster do you think there will be someone who actually has no

[01:10:24] idea why they're getting booed i would say yes but i bet you somebody would inform them

[01:10:29] pretty quickly but probably before the game it's like hey guys if you didn't know you

[01:10:34] actually used to be the sonics so you're but i think entering maybe entering the road

[01:10:39] trip before anyone gets any background i guarantee you someone doesn't have just has no idea

[01:10:45] probably just because it's such a young team to the thunder so yeah man it's fun to think

[01:10:51] about i'm like it's probably going to take at least two years at least if not longer maybe

[01:10:58] three i would say three sounds about right right can't go any faster like think what happens

[01:11:03] three years from now so in two years for example we'll have world cup games in seattle that'll be

[01:11:10] unbelievable while the sonics like they were probably been announced by them that they're

[01:11:16] coming back and and the the the ramp up is going to be so cool so cool i'm still going to

[01:11:24] have to set my expectations because i know the mba is basically a soap opera with a bunch

[01:11:29] stupid drama and the regular season super predictable all right like i'm not going to

[01:11:34] let any of that go but it will still be very very fun all that being said to have the sonic

[01:11:39] pack hey we can at least get into more greatest of all time debates it's true that'd be good top

[01:11:46] five's greatest of all times so the nba lives on lives on it we'll get to be a part of it

[01:11:54] part's great i'm excited yeah all right i think that'll just about wrap up this edition of the

[01:11:59] marine layer podcast you guys know the drill you want to listen to the full-form podcast you can

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[01:12:24] lyall as always we thank you guys for tuning in talk to you soon