Episode 142: Who is Julio Rodriguez?

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 142 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We're going to have a real conversation about Julio Rodriguez here on this episode. I don't know if we really want to have it, but we have to have it. The sample size has been too long. We'll get into it.

[00:00:14] We also have a couple of updates for you guys, really fun updates regarding this show that you'll want to stay tuned for. Here's your guys reminder before we start this show. Stay on top of all of our stuff. Make sure to download these podcast episodes.

[00:00:26] That's on the audio platforms. Make sure to leave a five star review. All that good stuff. If you're watching on YouTube, you see the subscribe button. Hit that subscribe button. Leave a like on the video. Drop us a comment.

[00:00:35] Then on social media, you can check us out on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod. Let's get it rolling. And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network. Recording here on Monday, July 1st.

[00:01:04] Well, happy summer. And now I know you're not a huge fan of off days, but given how the Mariners have been playing. I think it's actually a plus at this point for you.

[00:01:17] Yeah, I think everybody needed another off day, which is exactly how we started the show for Friday saying everybody needed that off date Thursday.

[00:01:23] But all of a sudden three days later, I think people need another off day because we tabbed that series against the twins as possibly the worst offensive series of the year. And I don't think that's all that far fetched. No, it's not.

[00:01:37] And I heard this conversation floating around the internet of what really it like are we getting to the point where this is the worst offense in club history? Because we said worst offense in in the worst offensive series of the season and they had opportunities.

[00:01:53] They still had nine hits on Sunday, but it didn't matter because they couldn't hit with anyone in runners, runners in scoring position. And the only runs the Mariners got all game were by twins mistakes on routine plays.

[00:02:04] Balls that wouldn't left wouldn't leave the infield or balls that got hidden to the air directly to Byron Buxton, which he dropped. So like things like that. But then the discussion went past that where, okay, we're halfway through this season.

[00:02:19] Are we allowed to tab this as one of the worst in history? If not the worst. I'm like, there are some other ones that we can name the 2010 offense. Lyle was awful, less, less talent, pretty bad. But people were pointing out like batting average wise, which flawed stat.

[00:02:39] Yes, this team is worse than that one is and not good. Oh, I thought you were about to finish a sentence there. But yeah, not good. Not good at all. Somebody has got to turn this around. Mitch Garver had a good June.

[00:02:56] Luke Rayleigh has been solid, but somebody has to anchor this thing for the offense. Somebody has to get going so it's contagious for everybody else to get going. I don't know who that's going to be, but it's going to need to happen sooner rather than later here.

[00:03:08] Also shout out to Luke Rayleigh. He didn't even sugarcoat anything. I don't know if you saw his post game comments on Sunday, but he was like our offense and our bats with runners in scoring position. He said has been atrocious. So he's not sugarcoating it.

[00:03:22] He knows like the guys in that locker room know and Luke Rayleigh is a crazy hard worker. He really is. And I think he recognizes what's going on like everybody else does.

[00:03:32] So the question is just when are the players themselves going to start to turn this thing around? And think about from Rayleigh's perspective, he had a good day on Sunday. He used one of the most productive hitters in the lineup,

[00:03:42] but he steps the plate and he has an opportunity and he doesn't come through. And he's pissed about it. And that's not even again, counting the guys who are struggling in the lineup or the fact that the Mariners lose a key offensive piece on Sunday and Mitch Garver,

[00:03:55] which led to Louise Castillo hitting in that game, which his numbers didn't actually look too much different than the rest of the lineup. Unfortunately. Well, that's how you started that Sunday reaction. You're like if you want a synopsis of the Mariners offense this year,

[00:04:12] here it is in one photo and it was released in the batter's box. He looks kind of odd with a batting helmet. He just doesn't look like a hitter. Which, yeah, no shit TJ. He's a pitcher, but there are some pitchers. Zach Granke, Jake Arietta, Steppen the Box.

[00:04:31] They could swing it. Felix Grantslam to his name. Louise Castillo. I mean even when the National League let pitchers hit and Louise has had some hits in his career. I don't know if I see it.

[00:04:45] I saw our friend Jordan Schusterman tweet out a highlighted of Louise when he was with the Reds hitting a one hop double off the center field wall at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals a few years back,

[00:04:57] but it was also a few years ago for everybody that was somehow mad about the fact Louise Castillo didn't go up there and swing or bun. Chill out people because guess what if he takes a bun foul ball off the face

[00:05:10] and then all of a sudden he can't pitch. I guarantee you all the same people that were mad that he wasn't bunting all of a sudden would have turned their anger to well, why was he bunny? Why didn't he just stand there and not swing?

[00:05:20] So the Mariners made the right call with that one. Believe it or not for all of you that are mad about it. My favorite line of all that was in terms of the replies was he's a professional.

[00:05:31] Of course you should be able to but something like a professional. Well, yeah, he throws a ball hard. What was the last time do you think Louise Castillo picked up about honestly? When do you think? Not since 2020. Yeah, or they didn't pick up bats in 2020.

[00:05:51] So it would have been 21. But I mean, I'm even talking about like joking around. Do you think like this calendar year of 2024 he has physically picked up a bat? Like even to hold it in his hands. Why would he? Right. No. Exactly.

[00:06:09] But yeah, Joe Ryan's up there thrown in the 90s put a bun down. Incredible stuff. Really, really incredible stuff. I got to say it is we do have a couple of big announcements that we want to start off this

[00:06:22] episode with before we talk about Julio Rodriguez up first. Lyle and I have the pleasure this Friday, July 5th to be hosting on 710 Seattle Sports and we'll be hosting Brock and Salk on Friday from 7 to 10 a.m. We get to fill in for them on a holiday weekend.

[00:06:42] We're extremely excited about it. We announced it on Monday. So if you hadn't already seen it and you're popping this podcast in and listening to it. Yes, Lyle and I will be keeping up the regular programming schedule with a Wednesday episode

[00:06:54] of Friday episode, but we will also be live on the radio from 7 to 10 a.m. hosting Brock and Salk on Friday. I'm super pumped about this, Lyle. Do you know why? Not only is this a massive platform for us.

[00:07:08] It is like Seattle Sports is one of the biggest sports brand. If not the biggest sports, I guess media brand in the Northwest, which is crazy in of itself that again we get to host a show on there.

[00:07:19] The Brock and Salk show is one of the most successful sports shows the Pacific Northwest has seen, which is also another. Wow, that's that's a pretty cool moment and that's the show we get to host. But also you finally get to come into my element, buddy.

[00:07:35] This is my living right now on the radio. Now it's a little quiet here during the summer, but you know live radio when I'm not sitting here on this podcast is my thing. And now we get to do it for three whole hours together on Friday.

[00:07:50] So we've been in this zone together here, but now you're coming into my zone, buddy. Yeah, I am. I said to you the other day that we hadn't even really given it much thought until we had the realization of all the podcast episodes we've done

[00:08:04] and all the live streams we've done because this is podcast episode 142. Zero of them have been in person. So this will be the first live show the two of us have done together in affiliation with this podcast. So that's pretty cool.

[00:08:18] And yeah, like the fact that they wanted us to fill in and do this for a day is awesome. Like the two of us grew up listening to Brock and talk and grew up listening to Seattle sports,

[00:08:29] like whether it was driving to school or just in the car with your family wherever you were. Like this is always the station we had on not to mention listening to Rick Riz and Dave Nehouse all these years what listening to Mariner games.

[00:08:41] Like this is the station we grew up on. So to sit in those chairs feels pretty wild, maybe a little bit of imposter syndrome, but that's not to say we're not really fired up about it and we're not going to have a blast on Friday doing it.

[00:08:52] So there's not much to say other than like thanks to the people letting us do this.

[00:08:56] And honestly, like maybe on an equal level to if not more than that, like thank you to all you guys because if all of you guys didn't sit here and support us and listen to the two of us talk on a regular basis, we wouldn't be doing this.

[00:09:09] So this is like this is just as much your guys accomplishment and a testament to you guys as it is to us. And we hope you guys listen in and contribute sense of Tex in on Friday while we're live. I mean we'll be reading texts.

[00:09:24] I'm hoping we get a color segment so we can get some people on the air too. Like I think that'll be fun. Like we're going to try and put some podcast elements that we do here on this show on that show as well.

[00:09:34] We're also going to be doing all the regulars on Brock and Silk as well what they do. I'm excited to rank. Ranking is going to be fun. And we get to do it. We get to do it all.

[00:09:42] It's going to be a lot of fun and I'll tell you, I've told you that once like your live on the air like where there's no screwing up. We're recording here right now.

[00:09:52] But when you're live and there's no screw ups, I mean the adrenaline level kicks up a little bit and you feel it.

[00:09:59] So I think it's going to bring some good energy out for the people that do have to work on that Friday after the fourth of July and have to commute to work and listen to us. I think you guys are going to have a blast.

[00:10:09] I think we're going to put together a really entertaining show and it's super great. Thanks again. Thanks to Mike Salt. Thanks to Brock Hewer. Thanks to Kyle Brown, the program director for having us. It's fantastic. I'm very much looking forward to it.

[00:10:22] Yeah, I can't wait and let us be as clear as possible while there will be segments from Brock and Sock that we will take part in. It's very much going to be the Marine Lair pod on Seattle Sports.

[00:10:35] Like you'll hear like the way you hear TJ and I talk and interact and have fun on this show. We're going to try to do something as similar to that as we can on Seattle Sports mixed in with some Brock and Sock.

[00:10:47] So, for example, are we going to be talking about a certain hike on Seattle Sports Radio? I think it might come up. I think it's going to come up.

[00:10:57] I think it's going to the only thing I was worried about is that the Mariners would still be in first place at that point. I think they still will be. But regardless if they're in first place or not, it is coming up.

[00:11:07] We are going to work it in somewhere. Yes, we are. Now do we go? Are we doing Everest? Should we do Everest? Should we do Rainier? Oh, so I've got a I think I've got a perfect solution now.

[00:11:20] I think this is the perfect medium just to spend 30 seconds on this. I've had a few people tell me that Mount Sai is way too soft of a hike and you've got to find something else. I think the medium here is Mailbox Peak.

[00:11:33] It's a little steeper than Mount Sai still close enough where people were going to join in. They could join in but you don't have to train for it and get certified and go in a group like you would with Mount Rainier.

[00:11:43] So I think Mailbox Peak is the perfect medium here. So I think that's what I'm going to go with. I think that's what I'm going to say on the show. Okay, all right. Mailbox Peak.

[00:11:53] I don't think I've ever hiked it so I'm going to have to look it up. I haven't either. Well, you better get ready to hike it because when Kyle Talkers and Mariners are you're going to be blogging this along with me. So we're going to go.

[00:12:02] Oh, I will. I'm going to be fine on the hike. I'm worried about you. I hike. Yeah. You see me this weekend? I was out there training. Where were you? Getting content at the ballpark. You're welcome.

[00:12:14] Well, were you walking up and down the stairs to the legs won't train themselves? Well, you know what would be great content dog? You go out to left field. You start walking up and down the bleachers.

[00:12:27] You get the vlog sick out and you're like training for Kyle Talker training for Kyle Talker training for Kyle Talker training for Kyle Talker. That would be some good prep. I must say maybe next maybe next time if I if I can weave it into the schedule.

[00:12:40] Point being like I hope this right here shows you guys exactly what we're talking about. Like we're going to bring this to Seattle Sports Radio. Like we want we want to show you guys like it's going to be us.

[00:12:50] We're just on a different platform and a different medium. So yeah, so yeah, it's exciting. Yeah. So 7am to 10am Friday Seattle Sports. You can listen on their app Seattle at the Seattle Sports app. You can listen on Seattle Sports dot com. You can listen on the radio.

[00:13:05] You can listen on the podcast as well. We're going to try and get some clips from that show and post it on our own channels. I don't think we're going to get the show to post on our channel,

[00:13:13] but we will get some clips to post on on our socials which will be good. So in case you miss it and you haven't seen it, we're hoping to get to post some of those after the show is over. The other bit of news.

[00:13:25] I was just saying I think we will be able to do that. And last thing speaking of vlogs. We are for sure certainty going to vlog that day because we'll be hosting the show.

[00:13:36] And then we're also going to be at the ballpark that night for the Blue Jays series and the afternoon doing content and all that stuff. So if you want to see some of the behind the scenes stuff of what goes into us hosting the show that day

[00:13:47] and what we're up to and what goes into it all, we're going to do a vlog about it. So keep an eye out for that. Dude, I'm going to need an app to deal with Blue Jays fans. Most importantly our friend Troy in the pen.

[00:13:58] I'm like, I'm going to need a real power nap to rest up and get ready for the 35,000 Canadians. Our friend Troy last year gave us the most electric fan clip we've ever had. Who's a Blue Jays fan?

[00:14:13] We asked him about invading the park and he just went in. We're going to get him back on the mic. We hope this year as long as he's at a game. But that's for this weekend. We do have another update so I'll let you tee up for that.

[00:14:23] Second bit of news. We're going to All-Star Week in Dallas. So yes, we'll be jumping on a plane and we'll be flying to Dallas, Texas. We land Saturday morning and we'll be staying through the entirety of the All-Star festivities through Tuesday and they'll be leaving on Wednesday. Excited.

[00:14:43] We're going to do a ton of content while we're there. Get a lot of fan content trying to get on the field. We'll try. We're trying. So if that, even if that doesn't work out, we're hoping to meet a bunch of people.

[00:14:53] If some of you guys are out there, maybe some of you live in Dallas. Hopefully that would be a great reach. Come say hello. Get to meet you guys. If you're traveling to Dallas for the All-Star game, we'd be hoped to run into all you guys

[00:15:06] and hoping to do some fun content along the way and meet some of the baseball community, which will be really fun. So we're looking forward to that and that's coming up in about two weeks. It's two weeks from today. We'll be in Dallas. Busy July for us.

[00:15:19] We've got, yeah, we've got Brock and Salk. We've got home games for the Mariners to do content. Do a bunch of stuff that, then we're going to All-Star Week and I say busy in the best

[00:15:28] of ways because I'm looking forward to these next couple of weeks more than I can even speak on. Yeah, I was thinking about it. I've been in different city five, it'll be five consecutive, or six technically consecutive weeks, weekends. Or it could be seven technically.

[00:15:45] So it'd be Corvallis, Seattle, Nashville, Corvallis, Seattle, Dallas, Corvallis. It's eight I think actually. Wow, not bad. It's busy. Yeah. So hey, that's what we like. This is supposed to be my slow season, but it ain't slow anymore. So I'm looking forward to it.

[00:16:04] It should be an entertaining product. I've never been to Dallas, you know, even if it's not baseball. Well, I'm excited to see Jerry World from the outside. I've seen it a lot on TV and it'll be right there next to the All-Star Village.

[00:16:18] So I think that'll be pretty cool and it'll be pretty cool to get back there for All-Star Week. Yeah, I've never been to Dallas either. So I'm excited. Like I said, we are going to be busy in the best of ways.

[00:16:29] Like I said, I could not be looking forward to these next couple of weeks more.

[00:16:32] So if you're going to be at All-Star Week, just how we always say, if you happen to be at the ballpark and you see us or you know we're going to be there, flag us down. Same thing.

[00:16:40] If you were going to be in Dallas for All-Star Week, please, please let us know because we're one looking to do content with people and two, even more than that. We're just looking to meet up with people, talk to people, do a bunch of different stuff.

[00:16:49] So if you're going to be there, tell us. I would say, okay, I would say that wraps up our updates here. We're going to get into the bulk of the show here in just a minute. Before that, let's take a pause here.

[00:17:02] We're going to talk to you guys about our friends over at Pegaches Pub 85. That's your go-to spot in Kirkland. If you need a place to, you don't have to just be in Kirkland.

[00:17:10] You can be anywhere on the east side in Seattle and you want a good spot to go hang out with your friends and watch the games. There's 20 TVs in the place. There's great food.

[00:17:17] There's pool and darts if you want to do that, or if you want to just sit and watch some sporting events. Guess what? There's more than 20 TVs in that place. So everything you need is over there.

[00:17:27] There's also great drink specials for happy hour Monday through Friday, two to 6 p.m. It's three and $4 drinks. So all of that, everything you need. It's over at Pegaches Pub 85 in Kirkland. So the bulk of the show.

[00:17:43] I think we've been talking about this potential episode occurring now for a few weeks. We were hoping things would turn around. We were hoping we wouldn't have to do this show and let's say that to start. We don't want to be having this conversation. We really don't.

[00:17:57] This is not going to be a fun conversation to have because I don't think anybody wishes anything other than Julio Rodriguez was in the MVP race and in the thick of it right now. That's not happening.

[00:18:07] And the sample size has now gotten large enough where we have to sit here and ask some real questions about the Mariners center fielder. Like just, I think it was so we set a benchmark at the beginning of this month when Julio had a tough first two months.

[00:18:25] We said a benchmark that he had to hit for us to not do this episode. He felt pretty fault pretty well short of that. So here we are today having this conversation and the question Lyle like.

[00:18:38] We have a question that needs to be asked and I don't think people don't want to hear what the answer is. Is Julio Rodriguez a superstar? It's hard to make an argument that he is right now. Where do we even want to start with this?

[00:18:55] There's going to be a lot of layers to this conversation. If you want to just start with the season numbers 625 OPS on the year, seven homers, 84 WRC plus.

[00:19:06] He also in the last week to magnify this thing even more in his in his last seven games put up a 188 OPS. That's a real stat not not batting average, not on base percentage. 188 OPS.

[00:19:23] And it would be so easy to write to when you heard that question I proposed asking if he's a superstar to say, OK, you guys are over it. He's having a bad year.

[00:19:36] This is a bit of an overreaction to a bad season when you take a look at Julio Rodriguez who had a 146 WRC plus as a rookie 126 last year and he's down to 84 this year. So OK, so he's been great, good and bad in his three seasons.

[00:19:52] Guys stop overreacting. This is a ridiculous question. He just has some mechanical flaws which he does right. This isn't why Julio Rodriguez has been bad this season. We could spend a whole nother episode trying to figure out why he's been so bad. We've tried to talk about it.

[00:20:07] He's got a swing coach in town this week trying to help him fix it and I hope it does because frankly the Mariners are not good without him being good. They're not good enough without Julio Rodriguez being what he was in 2022.

[00:20:20] That's what we want from Julio Rodriguez, but he's not. But here's some cold hard facts about what Julio Rodriguez is. He has played 15 months as a big leager. He has been by WRC plus a good to great hitter.

[00:20:37] Seven of those months good to great meaning 110 to 125 being good and that's by months by the way 110 to 125 is good 125 or greater is great. He has said seven months in his big league career with a WRC plus of at least 110.

[00:20:57] He has had eight months in his career with an average to bad WRC plus in a month. That is 109 or worse total the average ones is 109 to 100 bad is 99 or less. Let me say that again. He has played 15 months in a major league baseball uniform.

[00:21:20] Seven of those months he has been a good to great hitter. Eight of those months he has been either average or bad. That's not a superstar. I'm sorry, that's not superstar production.

[00:21:35] And speaking of production, if somebody is going to say well look he still finished fourth in MVP voting last year. He still had nearly a six war season. He still put up a WRC plus close to 130.

[00:21:47] That's all true and we know he's a great defender and we know he's fast. So he's always going to have that to his game. But his numbers are a little skewed from last year and here's what I mean.

[00:21:58] Julio Rodriguez had five weeks last year where he was hotter than the sun like it was scorched earth hot from July 25th till the end of August. He was the second best hitter in baseball in that time.

[00:22:13] He hit 414 1192 OPS and a 230 WRC plus from late July till the end of August. That only trailed Mookie Betts which by the way Mookie Betts put up a 252 WRC plus in that stretch. Good Lord.

[00:22:30] So outside of those five weeks, it's been pretty brutal in terms of his offensive production from the start of 2023 until now. And here's how I want to break it down. Right. If you look at who there's a couple layers to this.

[00:22:47] If you look at Julio Rodriguez from the start of 2023 till this very second, he has a 112 WRC plus and a 753 OPS in that time period. That ranks 58th in baseball in that time.

[00:23:04] Here are some names that also put up a 112 which by the way that 112 number includes his five insane weeks. He is right in the same category as Nathaniel Lowe, as Andrew McCutcheon and he is 1% behind Teosker Hernandez.

[00:23:22] So there's more to go into this but like when you hear that, when you hear he's the 58th best hitter in baseball since the start of 2023, I'll ask you like what does that say? A fine hitter with great defense which is what he is.

[00:23:36] Well not right now actually he's not a fine hitter. But that sample size says fine hitter could be valuable with great tools and great defense. That's what he is. Right. But superstar, no. He was a superstars rookie year. No like that rookie year was superstar play.

[00:23:56] Everything after that point has not been. And you say well that's nitpicking. Well that's the majority of his career now. There's more months after his rookie season than there was in his rookie season right now. We're talking a year and a half versus one rookie year.

[00:24:16] Look and from May and on in his rookie season he was one of the five best hitters in baseball by the numbers. That is a fact. He was that good. He was a superstar as a rookie. It hasn't been the same since 23.

[00:24:29] So I just gave you the broad outlook of started 23 till right now. I'm going to tighten the lens a little bit. From the start of 2023 until July 24th of 2023. So right before that five week hot stretch started. Julio had a 100 WRC plus.

[00:24:43] He had a 709 OPS in that stretch. So right at league average that ranked tied for 95th in all of baseball in that time span. The names that he was next to during that stretch. Brian De La Cruz, Jonathan India, Andrew Ben attendee, Kyle Schwerver. Those are not superstars.

[00:25:02] I don't even know if those guys qualify as stars. They are productive players on middling teams. Are they good players? Is that fair? Are they even good? They are above average maybe. Really? 100? Well no. Okay, 100 league average. I like all factoring in.

[00:25:24] Like Jonathan India has been hot recently. So I don't know how you want to qualify him. Well, and over what those numbers tell me is like average players. But like recently those numbers you're accounting for or not including recent time. Right. No, that is by definition league average.

[00:25:42] 100 WRC plus that's a league average player. So he does that right up until that really hot five week stretch where again he was one of he was the second best hitter in baseball over those five weeks behind Mookie.

[00:25:53] That is what propelled him to finish fourth in MVP because then when you look at the start of September of 2023 until now, which is when he started to cool off from that time.

[00:26:04] Julio Rodriguez has a 663 OPS and an 89 WRC plus the names he is in bunch with in that time stretch Jeff McNeil who has not been a favorite in Mets world this year by any stretch Nolan

[00:26:21] Shanwell South Relic Gavin sheets as a spot ahead of him with a 90 WRC plus. These are the names that Julio Rodriguez was centered around from the from September of last year until now.

[00:26:34] So from he had five great weeks from the end of July till the end of August but outside of that again like this isn't a fun conversation to have like I hate to say this, but what those numbers say is outside of those five weeks.

[00:26:48] He has been a below average hitter since the start of 2023. I think this is a good way to good transition into it not player comps, but who Julio is I'd say related to over these

[00:27:04] stretches of time. Let's get the ultra elephant out of the room that I tweeted about earlier today that directly rate relates to this franchise and that I don't know if you would have paraded it but it would have been

[00:27:16] good for the franchise if you would have told everybody in 2022 that this would be the case this year not mentioning what teams these players are on. In case you weren't aware since the start of the 2023 season Julio Rodriguez and Jared

[00:27:30] Kellnick are the exact same offensive player they each have a 112 WRC plus. These two players are portrayed completely different Julio got the mega extension. Kellnick got salary dumps. Jared Kellnick gets called up in 2021 has some like one of

[00:27:50] the worst starts to a career you could ever have he was horrendous to come up in the 2021 and 2022 seasons Julio comes up in 2022 lights the world on fire and you and I are sitting here our jaws are on the floor but after that all cleared

[00:28:07] up after Jared's tough start and Julio's rocket ship rookie season outside of Julio's better defense in center field the same player that same player and we're remember folks they were right next to each other in the prospect

[00:28:23] rankings when they're in the Mariners system they are right next to each other then and here we are July 1st 2024 this podcast episode and they are right smack dab next to each other again again like this is happened to this to this extent

[00:28:41] and the two the two portrayals of these players and there's really not that all that much difference. Is there one person in the baseball world right now that would call Jared Kellnick a superstar even me like one of his

[00:28:56] biggest fans on earth you can't call that guy a superstar he hasn't earned it he's had a good season this year it hasn't been a superstar season and you just outlined it offensively these two are the exact same player since the start of 2023

[00:29:09] and if Jared Kellnick is not a superstar which I don't think anybody's calling him I don't know how in the world you call Julio a superstar I just don't know how you do it the offense doesn't speak for itself.

[00:29:21] Even off the superstar point here for a second I'm just thinking of how these players have been treated over this this that same stretch Jared had one of the all time fuck ups that he could have in his career when he kicked the water cooler he broke

[00:29:39] his foot when he was turning it around and he missed a big chunk of time and probably it probably contributed costing his team a playoff spot contributed because they could have used him his continuity in that lineup and in the clubhouse

[00:29:52] but he wasn't there but it a lot of the fans didn't don't like Jared didn't period and some of that was because of that some of that is because when he came up he was brash he was outspoken good looking it just sometimes it rubs people

[00:30:08] the wrong way and then you come up and you suck right away some people just write you off right there and they looked for any excuse to trash you any excuse and maybe it created some ill will online perhaps I don't know I do know

[00:30:22] that or it was it was pretty evident publicly that there was ill will within the Mariners organization for for Jared and I think in the sense of the two parties were not compatible and was a reason why he got traded this off season that was

[00:30:37] the case for Julio he was more universally loved by the fan base and still is he got the massive potentially $470 million contract which we'll talk about here in the segment eventually from after his rookie season he gets you know all the

[00:30:55] money he's got he's got like a public relationship with like that's famous like all the stuff that comes in to completely different portrayals of two former Mariners top prospects in those 2021 prospect rankings and here we sit July 1st and right the starting point again

[00:31:18] like if you want to add a little more context that like you know who has got all the endorsement deals he had a chance to be on

[00:31:25] the cover of MLB the show they talked about like he's one of the faces of baseball at this point with how they market him he was

[00:31:31] on the shop with LeBron for example like again I know this isn't exact I know this is a little bit apples and oranges but

[00:31:39] for anybody that's seen the shop and the people LeBron has on that show like could you imagine if Jared Kelnick showed up on shop one day

[00:31:47] like people be wondering why he's there yeah and again it's not a totally fair comparison but again like what you're outlining here is

[00:31:57] these two guys offensively been the same player for the last year and a half and they are not even remotely looked at in the same way

[00:32:03] part of that is the personality part of that is some things outside of baseball sure it's part of that could be how they were perceived in the clubhouse

[00:32:10] we don't know exactly how Kelnick was perceived in the clubhouse we do seem to know that Julio is pretty universally loved but yeah just by production same player they have offensively been the same player

[00:32:22] and isn't a little heartbreaking because like if a lot of us feel that Kelnick should still be a mariner and that he still should have gotten an opportunity especially you

[00:32:34] yeah I mean look I know I know we thought there was going to be some changes to the roster this off season but I was pretty shocked when he got traded I know not everybody was but I was pretty shocked

[00:32:47] I like like I mean we were we all kind of had our jaw on the floor that night when we got the pass a notification that he was just gone because it wasn't like there was rumblings about it just kind of happened

[00:32:57] and yeah like you're like what person doesn't want Jared Kelnick on the Mariners right now because he'd be their best player right now he's their best player yep yep I have some more comps yeah so these are guys that Julio debuted with

[00:33:14] that we can confidently say are superstars that debuted the same year he did they were all in the top three of the MLB pipeline rankings prospect rankings the three Julio Gunnar Gunnar Henderson that is Bobby Whitjr trajectory wise Julio had the best first season of all of them

[00:33:37] he had a 146 WRC plus 5.7 wins above replacement Gunnar 128 was worth less than one win in just 34 games Bobby Whitjr was a below league average hitter by WRC plus was worth two and a half fan graphs wins but then Julio goes down to 126 in year two

[00:33:56] five and a half wins above replacement Gunnar Henderson a 123 WRC plus but he was worth four and a half in his age 22 season and Bobby Whit improved a little bit especially defensively with a 115 WRC plus and was worth nearly six fan graphs wins above replacement in year two

[00:34:14] now in year three when you're really supposed to see prospect breakout Julio's having the season he is Gunnar Henderson right now with his 180 WRC plus has amassed more fan graphs wins above replacement a little bit past the halfway point of the season

[00:34:31] then Julio has in a season yet he's at 6.1 right now and then Bobby Whitjr having an unbelievable year as well 141 WRC plus 4.6 fan graphs wins above replacement so they all debuted in their early 20s all high school slash international players

[00:34:49] all were in the top four of the same prospect ranking all debuted in 2022 all are in their third major league season this year all are tasked with being at the forefront of their respective franchises and there's a stark difference between the three

[00:35:06] and did you mention all three of them are all 23 years old as well? yep which quick side note for a minute Gunnar Henderson has a six war on July 1st there's three months to go in the season this dude's on pace for 12 wins are you kidding

[00:35:25] like Gunnar Henderson is going to come into town this week and as we saw when the Mariners played him in Baltimore that dude is a superstar by every sense of the word he does it with the glove he doesn't with the bat he doesn't strike out a lot

[00:35:38] he walks at a decent rate he's got close to 30 homers already it's July 1st and this guy I don't want to say carried the Orioles because top to bottom it's a really good roster but that's an MVP candidate right there it's probably Judge

[00:35:57] Judge is probably the winner of the season ended today isn't Gunnar right behind him I think so it's going to be close I do want to note in this prospect class Lyle it's not all slam dunks

[00:36:11] the guys I used were I think the two best players in this this rookie class Adley Rochman is also in that rookie class as well but I didn't include him in here he's a bit of an older player, he's a college player so different vibe

[00:36:26] because overall there's other guys in the top 5 that haven't totally worked out Spencer Torklison is right now in AAA cause he can't figure it out Riley Green has been good this year with 5.5 wins in a little over 2 seasons he's got a 136 WRC plus this season

[00:36:43] he was the number 4 prospect in the pre-season rankings and was supposed to be a Julio like prospect coming up he hasn't been quite as good so it's not all slam dunks but these three guys were good to compare cause again they're all 21 when they debuted

[00:36:59] they all debuted in 2022 they're all at the front of their franchises they all play premium positions two of them are progressing a little bit more naturally than Julio who's right now going the opposite direction right yeah it's true and like it's not a fun conversation to have

[00:37:21] but we see Gunnar putting up 6 wins right now I think we're all sitting here thinking this is what we all thought Julio was going to be doing Julio was going to be the 6 win player he'd have 30 homers at the All-Star break

[00:37:31] he'd be fighting judge for an MVP spot but it's not happening right now like what does the Mariners offense look like if he had Gunnar Henderson season right now I mean not only is it way leveled up and they probably have more than a three game lead

[00:37:47] at the time of recording this podcast but I bet you a bunch of other guys' numbers look a lot better cause if Julio was such a threat other guys would have to see more pitches I'm not saying Jorge Polanco would 100% be fixed

[00:38:01] his numbers could be a little bit better maybe JP's numbers are a little bit better maybe Garver didn't get off wouldn't have gotten off to the slowest start we can't say that for certain but when you have an anchor like that in an offense it changes things

[00:38:17] it's not a coincidence that the rest of the Orioles offense is as good as it is now there's some phenomenal other hitters in that lineup and that is part of the reason why they're so good but don't you think Gunnar Henderson setting the table the way he does

[00:38:29] is only help the rest of the lineup I think so don't you think Bobby Whit Jr. setting the table for the Royals has helped the rest of the lineup I think so I think that's the time that will go unnamed today regarding the Mariners offense

[00:38:43] which has been terrible they're a bad offense for a reason and Julio is a huge part of why they are so bad but again the way these messages were perceived was that the Mariners are doing exactly what they should be right now and I'm sitting there thinking

[00:39:03] well Julio should be worth at least 3.5 to 4 wins right now that's what he should be doing based on what his talent is so how is that like how are we on expectations right now how are the Mariners on expectation right now

[00:39:17] how's the offense doing exactly what they should right now it's not this is what should be happening right now and this is where us as Mariners fans will get riled up about this because I do have one more big point about all of this

[00:39:35] when it comes to Julio and the importance of him needing to be good he needs to be good for this all to work out for us to have enjoyable baseball to watch in October there is no other option for this he needs to be

[00:39:51] Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt he's paid to be that way and based on everything the Mariners have put on his plate and the talent he has like there is no other option we talked about this a little bit and I'll bring it up now

[00:40:07] because while we're on the topic of Bobby Witt and Gunnar Henderson for this example I'll use Gunnar because Gunnar doesn't have a big contract yet but 23 years old he's lighting the world on fire he's in the MVP race if there was another 23 year old

[00:40:21] even with the pedigree of a Julio of a Gunnar Henderson etc if they were playing like this and didn't have this contract attached to them what would it look like right now where would they be Tacoma? now the Orioles might be saying

[00:41:11] he needs a little bit more time that's not going to happen with Julio again we're not saying it should we're just making a point here and if you want to use another example the name we're about to use is nowhere near the pedigree of the three

[00:41:25] we've been on the topic of Julio, Henderson, Witt but I want to use Edward Julien as an example especially because the twins were just in town and he was not present why? he was sent back to the minor leagues

[00:41:37] Edward Julien is not on the major league roster right now now he's 25 the other three are 23 but the point here still stands Edward Julien is somebody that the twins view as a real piece of their future a second baseman with power who can really hit

[00:41:53] and is going to be one of the anchors in their lineup if everything pans out for the guy we've seen it in flashes already since he's been up but he was sent back to the minors Edward Julien has a 97 WRC plus for the year and an 0.9 fangraphs war

[00:42:07] Julio Rodriguez for the year has an 84 WRC plus and an 0.8 fangraphs war Julien has been a worse player than Edward Julien this year Julien's in the minors I'm not saying Julien should go to the minors but I think it does speak some volumes to again

[00:42:25] there are a lot of other 23 year old players out there right now that if they were playing like this you may see them get optioned I don't think it's going to happen with Julio but you'd see it with other guys we saw it with Kelnick

[00:42:41] worse with worse offensive production but that is what happened and it would make sense because he would be under no pressure to perform in Tacoma he would literally just need to fix his swing that's it and why not go hit in the PCL

[00:42:57] it does not benefit the minors right now to send them down there because then they get significantly worse and they're already bad lineup loses its highest upside period so that's not going to happen but to sit here and I'd say blindly

[00:43:11] say that a 23 year old with an 84 WRC plus has no shot of going to Tacoma would be like a little naive on whoever says that yeah I just don't think it's going to happen like I don't think that would do that no it's not and

[00:43:31] he could go down and destroy Triple A because Triple A pitching sucks so what does he gain from that the issues with big league breaking balls would still remain right again let's make this clear we are not suggesting he should be sent down

[00:43:47] we're just saying there's a lot of cases out there where you might see other players unfortunately have to go through that again we use the Julio example because even though he's a little bit older hasn't had as much time in the big leagues as Julio

[00:43:59] like he's by the numbers had a better year so far now Jackson Holiday like another example he's had nowhere near the amount of sample that Julio has Holiday's only had 50 and he wasn't hitting well they sent him back but that was a guy that everybody

[00:44:13] figured he's just going to come up light the world on fire and he'll never go back but Oriel sent him back wasn't ready that's not as good of an example as somebody like Julien I'm just saying another high pedigree prospect in baseball everybody thought

[00:44:27] he's never going to turn back he went back to the miners there's one other thing about this one other thing I have about this and this relates to Mariners history when you think of talent in Mariners history and I think of the three most purely like God

[00:44:47] given talent Mariners hitters of all time Griffys 1 A-Rodds 2 Julio Rodriguez is 3 and before someone attacks me about leaving Edgar Martinez about there Edgar took a while to figure it out I'm talking about steps on the baseball diamond and has it Edgar had to work his ass off

[00:45:09] to make things work so Edgar Martinez, Hall of Famer the greatest DH of all time but we're talking about stepping on the field as a near teenager and being the best player on the field it goes Griffy it goes A-Rodd it goes Julio Rodriguez that's the kind of

[00:45:29] not an unfair expectation to hold Julio Rodriguez too and it has been 20 years since the Mariners had made a playoff game and he steps on the field as a guy here locally in Corvallis and I went on the radio before the opener when he debuted

[00:45:49] they have not had a prospect like this since Alex Rodriguez, talent-wise they have not and I think this still checks out talent-wise but then to look at their age 23 seasons A-Rodd at a 136 WRC Plus in his age 23 season 4.5 fan grafts wins above replacement Griffy was worth 8.5

[00:46:09] wins as a 23 year old and Julio Rodriguez is doing this and I'm just like my heart's breaking I know like this we have been through the damn ringer watching this baseball team in this franchise year after year after year and we get

[00:46:34] the most talented player to step on the field in the 2000s in Julio Rodriguez step on the field will throw A-Rodd out when he was a Mariners in 2000 throw that out but everyone else Julio Rodriguez steps on the field in 2022 and he

[00:46:54] is the most talented player you have had in two decades on the field and the fact that less than three years later we're sitting here having this conversation like this cannot this should not have happened like we have been through too much for this to be the case

[00:47:12] not only should it not happen it can't happen and we've invested way too much money in him like ownership talk about like I've heard Divish and Adam Jude talk about on extra innings when the off season was going on

[00:47:25] and they had to ask the questions about spending money and going out and getting free agents the answer that ownership often times gave was listen we've invested a lot of resources into our superstar center fielder and as a result of that because of that contract

[00:47:39] we can't go out and just spend all the money in the world now that's a whole other conversation itself we could get into how we spend a lot more money but this is a hoolio topic if your quote unquote superstar center fielder has got an 84 WRC plus

[00:47:53] and is OPSing 620 then like I mean obviously you're starting to have worries about the contract but if look and we've somehow gotten to this point in the show and not said this obviously there's still a chance he could just hit the second half turn it around

[00:48:11] get really hot and this is all forgotten about and this single person is hoping that's exactly what happens because they really need it to happen but if this continues do the maritors have to think about going out and spending significant money

[00:48:25] to go get another star now they should do that anyway but the answer should be unequivocally yes if this continues especially if he has a whole year like this hoolio like do you have to go out and try to spend on one soda which will probably

[00:48:41] never ever happen but the conversation is still fair because you need a true anchor superstar bat in a lineup we talk about Kyle Tucker all the time why do you think we talk about him because he's one of the best hitters in baseball

[00:48:53] and the mariner's need a lot of offense so like the idea of trading for him giving up whatever it takes and then giving him a massive extension because you need that guy in the lineup that superstar the guy that is

[00:49:05] always going to strike fear into the opponent's eyes because they can do damage at any point it's supposed to be hoolio it's not happening right now and to your point you outlined what A-Rod and Griffey did at age 23 if you want to go even deeper into that

[00:49:19] yeah like Griffey had a 1025 OPS with 45 homers A-Rod had his second consecutive 40 homerun season at 23 years old he had 42 homeruns in back to back years 943 OPS hoolio's at a 620 OPS like if this continues and I really hope it doesn't again this really has not been a fun conversation

[00:49:37] we have to have it but it's really not a fun conversation if that continues to happen like the mariner's organization has to come together and say how do we fix this we might have to go shell out the money to get another absolute superstar player and hoolio is

[00:49:55] second fiddle he's the robin to Juan Soto's Batman he's the robin to Kyle Tucker's Batman because this iteration of the offense cannot continue a lot of this offense depends on hoolio being hoolio and if this is going to be a continuous trend then

[00:50:13] there's all these people talking about well they have to go out and get a ton of new players they have to change the entire lineup which they obviously can't do and because of that not only will they not do that at the trade deadline

[00:50:23] they will not change the entire roster in the off season either the easiest way to fix that is going to spend the money on an absolute elite level bat they probably feel like they needed it in the past because it was supposed to be built around hoolio

[00:50:37] but if this does not change and I hope it does they better be having as real conversations as ever about how in the world they put together all the money they have in the organization to go back up the brink trucks for Juan Soto

[00:50:51] despite not knowing what their rsn deal looks like in the future because again this offense cannot continue if you don't want to waste this pitching staff and you want this quarter win a world series all we want is excuse me

[00:51:05] all we want is Mariners fans is a world series that's it only franchise to never win one no, to never win one sorry, only franchise to never only franchise to never be to a world series it's all we want it's all we've been focused on

[00:51:21] that's all anyone ever wants it is really hard to see this franchise winning a world series with this roster if hoolio Rodriguez is not a superstar like that is about as clean and cut and dry as I can put it he needs to be a superstar

[00:51:41] for them to win a world series even with this pitching staff even with guys like Cal Raleigh even with other exciting players on this roster the only way they win a world series is with hoolio Rodriguez being a superstar if he's what he's been

[00:51:59] since the start of last year they will not win a world series and they will have to do what you said and they will have to do things that they have never done in franchise history and that's pay a guy like Juan Soto

[00:52:11] and pay him probably over market because realistically as a Scott Boris client would Juan Soto ever want to come to play in Seattle? ever no shot I was gonna say if you're Juan Soto how in the world are you thinking about anything right now

[00:52:29] other than staying in New York Yankee that team has all the money in the world it's the highest it's the most historic franchise in baseball they have all the championships they're in the biggest city in the U.S like the biggest market in the U.S

[00:52:43] and he's thriving there that New York media and that New York pressure isn't facing Juan Soto one bit they love him like there's not even a Batman and a Robin on that team him and Aaron Judge are both Batman so don't you think the Brian Cashman

[00:52:59] and the Steinbrenners are looking at that right now and saying yeah we shouldn't let that guy take one foot out of town we're certainly not letting him go across across town to Queens we're certainly not letting him go back to D.C we've got to keep him here

[00:53:13] and if the Yankees say we'll pay you $600 million the only way Scott Boris says hey Juan Soto I know you love New York I know you prefer the East Coast I want you to go play for the Seattle Mariners all the way across the country

[00:53:25] is if the Mariners say well I see your $600 million offer Hal Steinbrenner here's $700 million here's $750 million which the Mariners have never ever even come a fraction close to doing with a free agent especially this regime has never done so if you don't want to go shell out

[00:53:45] that type of money then the core you put together is the Mariners that play like it and it involves Julio playing like the guy that you paid him to be and not being an 84 WRC plus hitter and the Mariners don't have time to wait around

[00:54:01] for him to figure it out this pitching staff is getting more expensive by the year I saw the idea thrown out there today that maybe Julio is just the grizzled vet on a roster with the other players currently in this farm system that are actually the superstars

[00:54:17] how many pitchers would be left if that was the case? one so maybe Bryce Miller and Brian Wu but you wouldn't have two of Gilbert, well Castee would probably be gone you would probably only have one of Gilbert or Kirby I would say probably Gilbert would be here

[00:54:37] and then I think Bryce and Brian would still have control at that point would they be in the rotation would they still be on the roster and if you get it at that point I don't know there's nothing you could guarantee in that case

[00:54:51] like the main reason the Mariners have a roster that can win a World Series right now is because of that pitching staff but if you have to wait any length of time to adjust the roster or let your prospects develop so they can be the superstars

[00:55:07] instead of Julio you're not winning anything there is and it's honestly started to have some of these thoughts I hope it does not come true that they have this idea that okay for the next couple years we can shoot to get into the playoffs and this rotation

[00:55:23] can take us on a run to win and that's the way they assemble the roster based on the resources that they have because as we know they're not given an unlimited payroll budget Jerry just in the front office man there's part

[00:55:35] of me that wonders if that's the route they're trying to go and then they hope to get a couple of years where all these bats in the farm right now are up paired with a couple years with this rotation still here

[00:55:47] before they all hit free agency in other words do you get one to two years of this rotation paired with obviously Julio is still here but then Colt Emerson Felne Celestino, Lazaro Montes Cole Young those guys and you hope that in that time you

[00:56:03] have an Orioles type season where all your young prospects are thriving at the plate and with good pitching and you make a run I really hope that's not the route they go but there is a part of me that worries about that because you have no guarantee

[00:56:17] that all those guys one are going to pan out and you don't know if Colt Emerson is going to be ready by age 21 by 22 by 23 as we're seeing with Julio. Are we talking 2028? Right by ups and downs like I hope that's not the route they're going for

[00:56:33] I really do and I think the last layer to hit on this there's not a ton to do on this one because I think we've covered a lot and I know we're getting close to the hour mark here but there is like the definition

[00:56:47] of what defines a superstar right? And in Julio's contract which in writing says he has the ability to make up to $470 million throughout the length of this deal what that deal says and what the Mariner said by handing him that contract is we believe

[00:57:03] and we expect you to be one of the games elites for a long time and what do the games elites what does the games elites mean? That means you are in the conversation of the judges, the Mookie Betts the Ronald Acunhas, the Juan Sotos of the world

[00:57:17] you can throw in some others. I'm not even including Shohei in this because he's such a unicorn that he's on his own so those four guys who all happen to be outfielders by the way he's supposed to be in that category and I think it goes without

[00:57:29] saying that like it's not even close right now one judges career low WRC plus in a full season is 141 in 2020 it was 140 that's his career low Juan Sotos is 143 Acunhas is 115 but he followed that up the next year by winning the MVP and Mookie Betts which maybe we

[00:57:49] can compare a little bit here his career low was 107 in terms of a WRC plus in a season that was back in 2017 yet he still had nearly almost five wins above replacement and he also wasn't expected to be the bat that Julio was expected to be

[00:58:03] now Mookie's turned into the bat that people expected Julio to be but he didn't start off that way he wasn't expected to be some huge power guy so without it it almost goes unsaid those are the games elites those are what they do those guys are

[00:58:17] all top 10 in baseball in WRC plus since the start of 2023 where Julio's 58 so the Mookie cops the easiest one he's like a Swiss Army knife he's an infielder he's an outfielder his value was playing all over the place for the Red Sox

[00:58:36] and I don't even think the Red Sox knew really what kind of hitter he was he was a good hitter when he came up but he was a lot of contact some pull power over the monster and then he has the 2018 season

[00:58:46] the year after that career low season where he wins the MVP and he was unbelievable that they realize oh he's got a little bit more in him but Mookie was never a blue chip prospect so the expectations were never there it rings back to what

[00:59:00] we talked about with Gary Hill last week Julio plays under the light of expectations because of his prospect status because of where he signed in the international campaign for all the PR and the attention he got

[00:59:16] coming up through the minor leagues for all the incredible things he did at the plate and in the field is transformation from a corner outfielder to a super star level talent wise center fielder who could cover an insane amount of ground while also combining power that's only

[00:59:32] matched by a very few in major league baseball like Mookie didn't have all of that he's worked his tail off and he's proven that he's had that otherwise but for what we've seen from Julio it's not been the Mookie case because Mookie came up

[00:59:46] he hit it right away and if Julio finished this season at 107 you and I would be doing back flips because that means he'd have an insane second half we're talking about a 20 point swing in WRC plus over the second half of the season it's not easy to do

[01:00:02] to get up 20 points like that or sorry it would be 23 20 is short changing it it's tough to look at man I like the judge one they're not they're different both technically play center field both are supposed to be legitimate aircraft carriers in the middle of the lineup

[01:00:22] and Aaron Judge was always very good and then the last three seasons he has been Hall of Famer essentially there is that fear when he steps to the plate that you don't want to face you never you don't want him stepping into the plate

[01:00:40] you're scared where the ball's gonna go same with Juan Soto, same with Mookie Betts Freddie Freeman all these guys Julio hasn't placed that fear in anyone in a year and a half right outside of those five weeks in 2023 that short little time span

[01:00:58] and again if you want the exact numbers these guys are all top 10 in WRC plus since the start of 23 Juan Soto's third let's just start with Judge, Judge Lee's all a baseball with a 192 over the last year and a half Soto's third, Betts is fourth

[01:01:12] Acunha's seventh despite the 115 mark in 2022 well that was before this timeline but yeah Acunha's seventh you want to throw some other names in there in that top 15 ish range that are after those guys well in the mix Jordon, Freddie Freeman Bryce Harper, Corey Seeger, Kyle Tucker

[01:01:32] Gunnar Henderson like we've obviously talked about so not only is Julio not one of the games elites right now in the Judge, Betts Soto category despite being paid like it I don't even know how you make an argument how he's in the second tier right now

[01:01:46] with the Corey Seegers the Gunnar Henderson's I don't want to call Kyle Tucker second tier the Bryce Harper's I'm not even sure how you could put him there I don't think you can and again this sucks this whole conversation is sucked

[01:02:02] all I want is Julio to win the MVP I wanted to carry this team I wanted to bring him his first world series but we're sitting here having this conversation because the numbers are what they are we're not making anything up we're not falsely putting out

[01:02:16] numbers and stats and it's all in front of everybody and we're just reading it and it sucks but it's the case this is also a warning to teams doing pre-ar long pre-ar extensions because I think you and I, especially after Tattis got paying for his PED

[01:02:34] suspicious and he's come back and he's played very well but Fernando Tattis early in his career signed a 14 year $340 million contract then he has the motorcycle accident then he gets popped for PEDs and I'm sending some texts over this like couldn't be our superstar

[01:02:52] that's exactly what we said and here we now set like the other example I threw out there he who shall not be named from Tampa Bay signed a 11 year $182 million contract which I doubt he'll get much of given his situation but a mess up on the raised part

[01:03:10] I don't know if the pod rays I think are fine with the Tattis pre-ar extension still but not, I don't know how much they trust him to be honest not after all the stuff he's done and all the trouble he's gotten into then we have the Julio one

[01:03:26] which you and I paraded at first and now we look up at it this thing can be a real anchor on any chance of success in the future unless the parameters change monetarily yeah it's true and we'll see what other guys may get

[01:03:42] at the end of the day and I'm not sure if you have any suggestions here in the future but sure you do wonder if other teams will look at how some of these deals have played out and be a little more hesitant going forward every player is different

[01:04:00] it's tough to say no organization knows nobody knows each player better than their own organization and the people that see them on a regular basis will see and again hopefully Julio just turns this thing around and we look back at this conversation in September

[01:04:16] and we're laughing I really really hope that's the case but as we said at the start of this segment it's gone on too long now we didn't want to have the conversation we weren't going to do it in April we weren't even going to do it in May

[01:04:30] because we saw him turn it around last year obviously and have the really good August but between the way he started last year it's only it's only fair to bring it up and I think a lot of people have questions right now

[01:04:44] I know we certainly have questions for why the struggles have been this tough and we're sitting here talking about it like I know we're starting to wrap up most of our closing thoughts here and most of our and most of our final thoughts but

[01:04:58] yeah it hasn't been fun and I really hope he turns us around because I don't want to keep having conversations like this all I want is for him to be great and for him to carry this city to a world series it would be

[01:05:08] naive of me to tell you to not be worried because as we've highlighted here we have a large sample of Julio underperforming for his career he's spent more time as a average to bad hitter than a good to great hitter and that is concerning

[01:05:26] especially for what the Mariners need him to be there is almost no other option for the Mariners franchise for us as Mariners fans for the success of the team than to him to be a superstar because if he's not we're talking about things that are like everyone's

[01:05:42] worst nightmare worst nightmare in terms of having someone who you think is the savior and it turns out they're just not no it's true and again I'll say it again I'm going to keep repeating it let's just hope he has a really good second half

[01:06:01] and can have everybody forget about this but that's what happens hopefully the all star break gives him a little time to reset to get refocused and comes out hot to start that series against the Astros and doesn't look back but yeah is that just about

[01:06:15] wrap up all our thoughts a good hour on this I think well it's not technically an hour we didn't start the podcast with this but yeah look there's no one right answer to this if you are out there and you have some of your own thoughts

[01:06:31] and your own opinion is with Julio if you feel differently about this tell us you can leave a YouTube comment, you can DM us you can let us know how do you feel about the situation right now how are you feeling about him right now as a player

[01:06:45] again we don't have all the answers to this we're not even necessarily saying everything we're saying is 100% correct these are just our thoughts the way we formulated these thoughts and we're trying to use a lot of numbers to back it up but if you have different thoughts

[01:06:57] please let us know everybody's having conversations about it right now so we want to do the same and we want you to do the same so that's that okay I think we're ready to end this episode because again I think we'd

[01:07:11] love to have some more positive conversations going forward so I'm looking forward to that hopefully the Mariners have some good games this week we have some positive things to talk about for Friday's podcast and it's a much happier Friday episode so yeah with that

[01:07:23] that'll just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast you guys know the drill if you want to listen to the full form podcast you can do so wherever you get your audio pods make sure to download leave a 5 star review, leave a written review

[01:07:35] if you're watching on YouTube make sure to like comment and subscribe and then check us out on social media we're on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer pod that's TJ, I'm Lyle as always we thank you guys for tuning in we'll talk to you soon