Episode 145: Mailbag

[00:00:00] Welcome to Episode 145 of the Marine Layer Podcast. It's our Mailbag episode. We'll answer your guys' best mailbag questions and we'll close out the show with Speak Your Mind. Let's get it rolling.

[00:01:08] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network. Recording Thursday afternoon, July 11th, post-series from the Padre series down in San Diego.

[00:01:22] And it was nice to see the Mariners had one of their best offensive performances of the season in Game 1. And then they had a more normal Mariners offensive outing in Game 2 and still managed to win both games.

[00:01:34] And now, Lyle, the Mariners are setting themselves up with a pretty good chance to go into the break under-ratedly hot. Is that too optimistic of a take or do we need to be negative again?

[00:01:44] No, it's not too optimistic because if you win both games against the Padres, which they did, and then you win three or four against the Angels, that's when at five of your final six going into the break.

[00:01:55] That's a good stretch even if it's against what is mostly an unserious organ in the Los Angeles Angels. You take wins where you take wins. They all count the same.

[00:02:05] Now, to your point about the polar opposite days against the Padres, I feel like there's probably some correlation to that. Maybe not the starting pitchers that were on the mound each day for the Padres,

[00:02:16] a.k.a. one that's basically a triple-A starter and another that's had a really good year in Michael King. Yeah, I would say so. And let's say Julio's days epitomized both of those. Julio dominated on Tuesday. That was good to see.

[00:02:29] He had his best offensive game of the year, second fore hit game of the season, first game with four hits and multiple extra base hits this year is what he should probably be doing a lot more often. And he turns around on Wednesday and has a sombrero.

[00:02:42] So it's a start. It's a start. Wasn't it a golden sombrero? Wasn't it four strikeouts? It was a golden sombrero, four strikeouts, yeah. But hey, one golden sombrero and one best offensive game of the season is better than two bad offensive games. So, you know, we'll take it.

[00:03:00] This is true. Look, the Mariners swept the series, two game series, but they swept it against a team that's in a playoff spot right now in the Padres. They'll take your wins where you can get them. Hopefully this sparks something? Is it guaranteed to spark something?

[00:03:12] No, we're probably going to need to see what that Astro series looks like out of the break to really gauge what this team could look like moving forward. But still, you take your wins where you can take your wins.

[00:03:24] They're at 50 wins this year, a lot faster than they were in 2023. So that's another good sign. And if you want to stay on the positives here, shout out Jorge Polanco.

[00:03:34] Yeah, I was going to say shout out Jorge Polanco and why this is such an important stretch for him is because this is this upcoming series against the Angels is the last series where the front office isn't tied down essentially with something else or the draft.

[00:03:49] They're tied down with the draft. The draft's on Sunday. And that's very important to them, especially an organization like the Mariners, which has done such a great job drafting and is big reason why they're so successful right now.

[00:03:59] It's not 100% on Jorge Polanco's mind. He wants to play well no matter what, but he the Mariners will be more active with moves once the draft is over.

[00:04:13] And Jerry DePoto and Justin Hollander can put their full effort on this current roster opposed to drafting their future one, which is why it was probably important for Jorge Polanco to have a really good series in San Diego.

[00:04:25] I don't even know if him having an insane four game set against the Angels will save him. I feel like his fate for the most part is already decided based on the first 90 or so games of the season, but it wouldn't hurt.

[00:04:39] It certainly wouldn't hurt now later more than ever to break out and start hitting like we know he used to be able to hit because I'm sure the Mariners would much rather players on their own roster play significantly better and impact the offense rather than having to go dish out some of these prospects they really don't want to trade.

[00:04:58] So to start, does it continue? I wouldn't say Jorge Polanco is totally dead. I'm not saying he's in a great spot, but if we get close to the trade deadline and he's still hitting well and the Mariners still haven't acquired a second baseman, they may not do it.

[00:05:13] They may not go get a second baseman. They may stick with Polanco. Now he's really going to have to show signs. Some of the power is going to have to come back. Strikeouts are going to have to go down.

[00:05:22] He's going to have to consistently make real contact with the ball, all that stuff. But if he really has a good month of July, the Mariners may say, okay, let's shift our focus to going and getting outfielders.

[00:05:35] Let's go get outfielders. Let's potentially get a reliever. Christian Walker is out there. That's another potential option for a rental. We've talked about first base potentially.

[00:05:43] If Polanco really hits, they may say we can focus on other spots. Now, I don't think anybody's banking on the fact that Polanco is going to get hot, but we'll see.

[00:05:51] I wouldn't say he is totally dead in the water again. I would not say he's in a great spot. I would say these next two weeks are extremely important for him.

[00:05:58] So if not dead in the water, even though he had a really good two games in San Diego, his starting spot now is probably not guaranteed. There were many people after the off day on Monday saying, well, Jorge Polanco probably shouldn't be starting anymore.

[00:06:15] And I think that's totally fair. And I was in that boat as well. Now, his starts will probably be a little bit more mixed, but totally on the bench.

[00:06:22] Like say they start him tonight. We don't have the lineup yet. Say they start him tonight on Thursday. That idea for now would probably falter for Scott Service.

[00:06:33] Well, if he's going to continue to hit, we might as well leave him in the lineup because it's been pretty evident. They don't really trust Bliss, at least not at this point is development at the plate consistently. And they would rather that be Jorge Polanco.

[00:06:45] So there's some things to juggle. They're going to ride his hot hand, not certainly not benching him until they're forced to do otherwise. Right. I think in conclusion, the month of July is going to be extremely crucial for Jorge Polanco and especially these next two weeks.

[00:07:04] If he can prove that he can have a real turn around second half, maybe the Mariners will stick with him. If not, they'll probably go out and get somebody. I think that's fair to say.

[00:07:15] So does he need to have a good game you think like every single day? All the Angel series then all the Astro series as well to avoid any of that?

[00:07:23] Because if he goes out there tonight and has three strikeouts and looks terrible again at the plate, people are going to want him right back there on the bench.

[00:07:31] I don't know if he has to have a three hit night every night, but he's going to have to have good series after good series. He's going to have to look back at the end of each series and say, yeah, I was a contributing factor in the offense.

[00:07:42] I made an impact. Nobody gets a two to three hit night every night, but he is going to have to string together some good games consecutively. I think that's for sure.

[00:07:51] Well, he might need to based on how bad he was the first three months lost a lot of ground. Right. Yeah, we there's still some time before the deadline. There's about three weeks.

[00:08:02] So I think I think there's still some times with some time for things to play out, especially considering the trade deadline and the moves that get made at the trade deadline seem to get pushed further and further back every year.

[00:08:14] So if the trade deadline doesn't really get crazy till 48 hours before that gives Jorge Polanco a lot more time.

[00:08:20] If it starts early this year, it may not. But if it's the former, we may see Jorge Polanco get a lot of playing time until August 1st to see can this truly turn around or is this just not going to work? We'll have to see. That's right.

[00:08:35] Okay. Before we get to our mailbag, I wanted to give everybody a quick little programming update for next week's show. So we talked about TJ and I are going to be in Dallas. We're going all star week. We're fired up about it.

[00:08:45] We'll probably talk about that a little more later in the show, but we're going to have a little bit of a change for this upcoming week and when we release our podcast, especially with the all star break going on.

[00:08:55] So instead of Wednesday and Friday this week, we're going to put out an episode Monday and then a normal episode Friday. Monday's episode will be probably a somewhat short one, but it'll be all about the Mariners first round draft pick.

[00:09:09] It'll be about whoever the Mariners selected in the first round. We're going to do a dive into them, who the player is, what he can bring to the table and kind of our instant reactions to the pick.

[00:09:17] That'll be out first thing Monday morning after the draft Sunday night.

[00:09:20] So that'll be Monday and then Friday we'll recap all star week and we're also planning at least as of now to have Joe Doyle on with us to recap the entirety of the draft and break down a bunch of the Mariners picks with us so we can get some expert insight from him.

[00:09:35] So Monday, Friday, those are when the podcast are coming out this week. After that it'll be back to normal.

[00:10:07] I must want to turn this back to you because you texted me as we're doing prep for the show and said, have you seen some of the other Mariners bats against left handed pitching?

[00:10:18] So let's cover that. So let's start with Mitch Hannigar himself as a lefty masher because this is why this question was burned. Why does Scott Service use Mitch Hannigar as a lefty masher when Mitch Hannigar this season has a 17 WRC plus against lefties?

[00:10:36] Not 117, 17, meaning that is 83% below league average against left handers. That's not very good. Now here's an idea. Let's start based off of Mitch's past. Mitch in his past in 2022 his last season with the Mariners and his last somewhat healthy season had a 120 WRC plus against lefties.

[00:10:59] In 2021, Mitch Hannigar had a 148 WRC plus against lefties. So there's a bit of a track record that Scott Service wants to go off of in hopes that Mitch Hannigar hits better against lefties.

[00:11:13] The problem is for Scott's sake he doesn't have much else to go off of when looking at right handed bats to fates lefties or left handed.

[00:11:24] We'll get to start with the righties and then we'll go to lefties in terms of outfielders the Mariners have available to them to hit against lefties.

[00:11:30] So let's run through the other right handed hitting outfielders. Julio is playing every day no matter what so that doesn't even matter what he does against lefties because he has to play anyways.

[00:11:39] Victor Robles has played well in his small sample as a Seattle Mariner but it's not like he's crushed lefties in his query.

[00:11:47] He has a 103 career WRC plus against lefties. Not amazing, not terrible but not great so there's no over the top inclination to play Victor Robles over Mitch Hannigar against lefties.

[00:12:01] You can make the case especially right now based on how Hannigar is hitting but career wise there's no real incentive for him to do that.

[00:12:09] And Dylan Moore out of the 76 games he's played this season has only played 19 in the outfield so saying he should be a realistic option to replace Hannigar in the outfield as this roster is currently constructed is not how Scott's service wants to roll at this point.

[00:12:27] So remember 76 games 19 games he's played in left field not even right field left field for Dylan Moore and Demos hit against lefties but they've needed demo on the infield more than they've needed him in the outfield this season.

[00:12:41] So that's why he's not the option or place it. Now what about the lefties because this question frames well guys like Luke Rayleigh are hit better against lefties than Mitch Hannigar does.

[00:12:51] Well the lefties have not been great against lefties this year. Not a very shocking development but they haven't been. Luke Rayleigh has a 76 WRC plus against lefties this year.

[00:13:06] Dominic Kanzon Lyle against lefties this year has a negative 65 WRC plus against lefties this year. In case you're curious the combined WRC plus of those two against lefties is 11.

[00:13:23] So that's why those two won't get nods over Mitch Hannigar against lefties. What about the guys in the minors. Well Jonathan Clauss say who's got just got called up this week is unproven and most people I would say still don't believe he's ready ready as a big league hitter so that's why he doesn't get the nod.

[00:13:43] Samod Taylor has a career 61 WRC plus against lefties. Cade Marlowe is a lefty himself and has a high strikeout rate so that also wouldn't work. So ultimately it comes down to the Mariners don't have enough options to hit lefties in their in at the big league level and at triple A level for what they need Mitch Hannigar to do.

[00:14:08] So Scott service really has no choice at this point. He doesn't because the other options are not good enough to hit against lefties. We should probably preface the Kanzon thing with he has a very, very small sample size against left handed pitching.

[00:14:22] That's why is WRC plus is pretty low. But Luke Rayleigh there's an argument there like 76 versus 17. That's a fair argument right. Not really it's still not productive. But if you're talking about why is Mitch playing over certain guys.

[00:14:43] Well Luke Rayleigh plays every day anyways now so he has to sometimes sometimes sometimes yeah but Luke Rayleigh is your best offensive back.

[00:14:52] So I think that's an easier argument. What about what what about other guys besides Luke Rayleigh because you have to fill two corner outfield spots and the other options I just listed don't make a compelling case.

[00:15:06] Okay so this is under the assumption Julio and Rayleigh are playing every day and then everybody else is fighting for that last spot. Correct. I think we should think about this over the last few days.

[00:15:17] And again like we always have to preface these Mitch Hannigar talks with these are not fun conversations to have because Mitch Hannigar's loved here by the Mariners in the Pacific Northwest by the fan base for good reason.

[00:15:29] He's been here a long time fan favorite works his tail off guys in the locker room and the clubhouse love him.

[00:15:34] But if we're talking about on field production it is really really been tough and especially here in 2024 or more here in 2024 obviously the majority of his career has been very good.

[00:15:46] But Kate Marlowe started to get pretty hot over the last week in Tacoma he's had a really good start to July is OPS for the years starting to climb up it's about 730 now.

[00:15:57] And I'm starting to think about the idea of him being on this roster over Mitch Hannigar until the Mariners make a trade for another outfield bat.

[00:16:05] And I say that because one Marlowe is now swinging it to you know he's going to be a better defender than Mitch Hannigar.

[00:16:13] Mitch Hannigar is almost a negative one-war player this year and a lot of that's because of his defense and Hannigar for the year also has an 83 WRC plus. So I think about it like this.

[00:16:23] Do you trust Marlowe to be essentially an 80 WRC plus bat in the big leagues and put up better than a 17 WRC plus against left handed pitching. The answer that's yes and I feel like a lot of people will answer that question with yes might be worth it.

[00:16:39] Mariners are in first place. I know it's a tough thing to swallow the money.

[00:16:43] I know it's a tough thing to let go of a fan favorite but I'm just looking at the way Kate Marlowe is starting to play and the fact that we know he is a fine outfielder.

[00:16:53] And say just feels like he provides a little more value at this point.

[00:16:58] I think he's more valuable at this point too but I think that just kind of gets still overall just gets away from the question like how the Mariners operate organizationally they're not going to call up Kate Marlowe so we can hit lefties. So.

[00:17:12] And ultimately that's what the that's what the question is searching for. So but yeah Kate Marlowe would make the Mariners better. That is a correct answer. He would make the Mariners better than what Mitch Hannigar is currently putting up in the same position right now. That is correct.

[00:17:28] But it's not in terms of answering finding a guy to hit against lefties currently in the organization that currently does not exist. OK. Yes I agree with that.

[00:17:39] But if it's more of a broad question of Hannigar on the roster versus Marlowe I'm starting to think Marlowe might do a lot for this team early. That's a strong word but be a be a positive contributor.

[00:17:49] Or I mean essentially he could just be a replacement level player and be more valuable than Mitch like zero war. That's all you need. Sure exactly. OK. Let's get to our second question here.

[00:18:03] This is on YouTube from Daniel Fleming and he says if you could add any concession stand to T-Mobile Park what would it be and why. I have an answer for you ready. Mm hmm. Skyline Chile because it's the greatest.

[00:18:16] Food on planet Earth and we need the heart of the Midwest inserted into T-Mobile Park. I mean what do we park is really missing is average to crappy chili doused in cheese you put over spaghetti hot dogs whatever whatever you want to put it on.

[00:18:37] That's what T-Mobile Park is really missing Midwest values baby. Dude Skyline Chile is not food. Dog food more like it. I'm actually kidding that's not what I would have put in there. I actually went significantly higher quality stuff.

[00:18:55] Now I'm not going to some top tier restaurant saying they should put that in T-Mobile Park because you know that's not what the average fan can do. Have you seen these Italian focaccia sandwiches. Have you seen them looking around on some videos. No.

[00:19:09] No OK well they are like Florentine a cave they're from Florence I think in the U.S. I think that's where they originated from if I'm not in your Italian you could please leave a comment and tell me I'm an idiot and that's OK.

[00:19:22] But they've opened a few of these in New York one of the great food cities we have in this country.

[00:19:27] And they have the they have these sandwiches all over Italy but they made their way here to America so now most Americans who don't travel internationally can have them. And they have these focaccia sandwiches that are just first of all massive and they're packed.

[00:19:42] At T-Mobile Park would probably cost twenty five dollars. But if you're curious you can look up this place it's called a try and pronounce this correctly all in Tico via V.I.N. A. I.O.

[00:19:57] I'm not going to try and pronounce that I'll let you spell it out A.L.L. apostrophe A.N.T. I.C.O. space V.I.N. A.I.O. And now my Italian ancestors are rolling over in their graves and that's totally fine.

[00:20:11] But the sandwiches are insane they look really good focaccia is amazing and I think it would be a very authentic thing to add to T-Mobile Park. I think it would be a lot of fun and now that they're a chain it works out so.

[00:20:23] Hey for people say that that'll say that's a crazy idea there's din ty fung at T-Mobile Park so people can get bougie in Seattle with their food options at T-Mobile Park. You want to you want to have something like crazy Italian sandwiches. Why not.

[00:20:37] It's like there's crab in the outfield you can you can get moto pizza which is already high quality pizza upstairs. It's not like they're not high quality. Yeah but the real moto pizza is really good like it is it is specialty pizza.

[00:20:52] And I think a focaccia sandwich is on the level of specialty pizza. I think it's the same I same idea same level of food.

[00:21:00] All right I went a little more simple with my answers. If there's going to be pizza in the ballpark I said Joe's pizza another New York City staple it is amazing.

[00:21:09] It needs to make its way out its way out West it needs to make its way to T-Mobile Park other than that I just picked two chains that Seattle doesn't have but desperately needs raising canes which is coming to Seattle here soon enough.

[00:21:20] I can't wait and then in and out. That'll be good those would be the first locations in a ballpark for those foods that'd be fun.

[00:21:27] I get I get behind that so I thought about Joe's. I did think about it which is the best pizza I've had however T-Mobile Park already has ballard pizza in the park which is the exact same thing not the same quality.

[00:21:41] And remember when you bring a pizza chain into a ballpark or any food into a ballpark it's not going to be as good. So right with the exact same the exact same thing.

[00:21:54] I don't know if there like resonate maybe it's not the right word but there's already be something almost exactly like it. However there won't be something exactly like raising canes and there won't be something like in and out there so that I'm buying. Yeah hey sign me up.

[00:22:11] Listen ballard pizza is fine but nothing Joe's pizza. If we even get 75% of Joe's pizza T-Mobile Park sign me up.

[00:22:18] Yeah. Oh I'm in for that. Let's get to the next question this is on YouTube from at the Conner Joe trade and he says aside from the obvious sellers White Sox Marlins etc.

[00:22:31] Who are the most two most intriguing sellers from each league and who's your number one trade target from each.

[00:22:38] So I tried to branch out a little bit with this because because the question states aside from the obvious team so not the A's not the White Sox not the Marlins teams like that. I'll start with the ale.

[00:22:53] I said blue jays and rays for the ale or sorry I thought about the blue jays and rays I kept the rays and said Brandon Lau who we've talked about that would be a fit that makes a lot of sense.

[00:23:04] Rental bat second base WRC plus is close to 130 hits the ball hard. That makes too much sense for the Mariners if they're going to need a second baseman.

[00:23:14] The other one I will admit this one's a little bit of a pipe dream but with the Rangers being out of it or not out of it but they're not playing well they're under 500 there's still seven back in the division.

[00:23:27] If they keep losing and they get got to the point of the deadline where they actually thought about doing some selling.

[00:23:34] Again I'll say this is a pipe dream idea but Nathaniel low would be a pretty sick addition so if I'm just talking about good fits for the Mariners first baseman two and a half years of control like a 110 WRC plus hitter walks a decent amount doesn't strike out a ton.

[00:23:48] Love to get that guy in Seattle now again it's probably a pipe dream but would love to see Nathaniel low.

[00:23:56] Now this question was tricky because when he when he says aside from the obvious sellers the problem is there are so few sellers and major true sellers in major league baseball because of the third wildcard.

[00:24:09] So note just because we are picking these teams as sellers does not mean these teams will sell because most of these teams are within five games of the wildcard or less right now which for some teams is very doable.

[00:24:23] So let me say this to one I agree with you to I did my al guys give your al guys and we can do the and all guys after.

[00:24:31] So my al guys I did choose the blue jays because I think they can have the most impact of any team on this deadline if they're selling they can buy they can swing pennant races with the pieces they have available to them.

[00:24:43] Whoever they decide to trade with and for the blue jays I think Vlad he was too obvious in it again just doesn't really sound like he's going to get traded so I'm going to choose the guy I've been hammering for a while and I think would make the Mariners better and that's Danny Jansen.

[00:24:57] I think they need to catch anything they need another catcher I really think they do and then the other team I chose the Detroit Tigers they might sell they might not they have a couple of intriguing options Jack Flaherty's on a rental will be a rental if you trade for him.

[00:25:10] The Mariners don't need starters though but they do have Mark Kana who if you want someone that would be a soft buy what we were talking about last week or sorry earlier this week soft buying and improving in an outfield spot instead of having Mitch Hanna you have Mark Kana instead and you upgrade quite a bit.

[00:25:29] Yeah you know when I was looking at the blue jays I thought about the idea of Justin Turner even though he's 39 years old I thought to myself could play the corner infield could DH if you need him to has been a great bad over the majority of his career but then I dug into some of the peripherals and he is in the first percentile of bat speed so I said you know what that's probably not a great fit which is why I ended up pivoting somewhere else so.

[00:25:52] Thought about it didn't didn't go through with the idea National League I said Giants and Diamondbacks again will these two teams sell we don't know the NL wildcard is so up in the air but if they do my two guys on the list or two players we talked about LeMont Wade Christian Walker Christian Walker would be a great great great addition for this team at the deadline should have been an all star power bat 133 WRC plus hitter OPS is 840 rental wouldn't have to give up on that.

[00:26:22] And you could roll with Tyler Lackler in 2025 if you don't resign Walker in the offseason so I saw Walker for the Dimebacks and I said LeMont Wade for the Giants who we've talked about is sort of a platoon bat but you know what when your WRC plus thing either nearly 160 and you're walking almost 20% of the time I'm interested.

[00:26:41] I had the Diamondbacks as well and I chose the Cubs and said although the Cubs.

[00:26:48] This news came out right before we hit record with Cody Bellinger going on the IL because that would have been my most intriguing target I know you're not a huge Cody Bellinger guy but I think he could have had some sort of value if you acquire him at the deadline who knows if he's going to be back and playing by the time the deadline rolls around which will a impact his value be could incline him no matter what now to.

[00:27:10] Pick up his player option next year which is $27.5 million so I'll keep the Cubs with the Diamondbacks though outside of the Blue Jays their pieces if they decide to sell can impact that it can swing a pen race if they want like Christian Walker is that good we talked about Randall Gritchick he is in terms of a soft buy.

[00:27:29] He would make a massive impact if you put him in the outfield as a right handed bat for how he's hit this season Paul Seawalds also an option as well so those are I think those are two pretty good ones right there Diamondbacks Cubs.

[00:27:41] There's a lot of teams you could choose the nationally because they're all bunched right together.

[00:27:46] I agree and that nationally wildcard race is going to have some impact here in the next few weeks we will start to see some teams fall out of it a little bit more we've already seen it a little bit.

[00:27:55] I know the Cubs are technically about three and a half back now but Bellinger goes out they're still way under 500 some of these teams will sell because some of these teams will look at their roster and say we are not quite a playoff team and because of that they'll be willing to ship some pieces away.

[00:28:11] Before we get to our next question let's hear a word from game time summer is here we're in the swing of it and that means it's time to get out to T-Mobile Park and watch the EMS want to get out to the pen grab a drink and watch the game with your friends.

[00:28:23] Let game time help you get there with killer last minute deals all in prices views from your seat and their lowest price guarantee game time takes the guesswork out of buying MLB tickets.

[00:28:34] It'll be the biggest series to date right after the all star break when the Mariners get home when the Astros come to town get in prices $35 on Friday $31 on Saturday and $27 on Sunday all on the game time app.

[00:28:47] Get a panoramic view of your seat and toggle the all in pricing feature so you know how much you're paying and what the view is before you buy your purchase is covered with the most flexible customer service policy in the ticketing industry.

[00:29:00] Take the guesswork out of buying MLB tickets with game time download the game time app create an account and use code just baseball for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again create an account and redeem code JUSTBASEBALL

[00:29:17] for $20 off download the game time app today last minute tickets lowest price guaranteed.

[00:29:23] Let's get to our next mail bag question this comes from Ellen Rhodes on Instagram and her question is unpopular opinion Munoz has had too many walks have seen a lot of blown saves from him dot dot dot. So is Andres Munoz walking too many batters.

[00:29:40] I think the blown saves thing might be a little bit out of proportion but sure if if you're watching Andres Munoz and saying I would like to see him be more in the strike zone that is a fair take.

[00:29:53] Andres Munoz had a really really good command back in 2022 and since then it's gone downhill a bit now that doesn't change the fact that he is that doesn't change the fact in saying that he's not one of the games elite relievers because he is.

[00:30:07] But if you would like if you're saying I would like to see one of the games best relievers also throw a few more strikes. Yeah that's a fair take because Andres Munoz also throwing more strikes would only do that much more for him.

[00:30:19] You know at this point I view his 2022 command as an outlier because the rest of his career he's been about a 10% walk guy about 10% and that's not horrible. That's only the 45th most in terms of percentage among all relievers.

[00:30:37] For example the leader in walks most walks his oldest Chapman is over 20% so he's not the worst he's almost middle of the packs the wrong term but you know it's fine.

[00:30:49] I don't think it's the end of the world when you have stuff that moves like his does remember his sinker moves drastically arm side.

[00:30:55] It's sometimes hard to get that pitch in the strike zone and if you compare that to his 2022 season where he only had to really worry about two pitches one his slider breaks the same direction every time and his fastball is straight.

[00:31:09] So he didn't really have to worry about his pitch moving too much out of the strike zone.

[00:31:14] If Andres Munoz tries to paint inside corner to ride he's now at the sinker that pitch could just take off and run inside way more and it'll be a ball no matter what.

[00:31:22] So you know it's just a little bit more difficult for him now his pitches move more and if your pitches move more more likely than not you will struggle to throw strikes at times.

[00:31:34] That's normal for reliever I don't really think it's the end of the world because ultimately is also still striking out over 30% of the batters he faces and as long as there's enough separation between your walk rate and your strikeout rate I think you'll be okay.

[00:31:49] No it's not the end of the world and to that point into your logic it's the same thing with Matt Brash when he's healthy.

[00:31:56] His stuff is so ridiculous that he's probably never going to be an elite command guy because his stuff just moves too much to sometimes have real real command over his pitches like those Matt Brash sliders have a mind of their own.

[00:32:10] You can't always know where it's going because they break too much so yeah with the Munoz sinkers and his new arsenal now because it's different than what it was in 2022 he may end up having stuff that moves so much that he just doesn't always command the zone as much but I will say if you want to get him throwing a few more strikes again I don't think that's a crazy opinion like for example right now he's in the 18th percentile major league baseball.

[00:32:40] He's in the 18th percentile in walk rate he doesn't have to be in the 80th percentile the way he was in 22 but maybe around league average maybe in the 50th percentile something like that. But that number compares him to starters too.

[00:32:54] Yeah so for relievers he's more middle of the pack but again it like just a little bit more I'm not saying he's going to be George Kirby with his command he's not but if you are a person again I'm not that concerned about it and you're not that concerned about it.

[00:33:08] I'm just playing the side of if you are a person that says I would like to see Munoz throw a few more strikes I will say OK like that is not the hottest take in the world that is like you have a fair fair backing point with real data to say OK I'd like to see him throw a few more strikes.

[00:33:26] Is it the end of the world now I'm just saying it's not the hottest take in the world. So what at his best we'll get him down from 11 percent 8 percent that'll be good. Sure. Yeah that'd be great.

[00:33:38] All right next question this is from Cardi Rave also on Instagram he says which prospect would you be most sad to see leave via trade.

[00:33:47] My answer is Colt Emerson there have been people talking about that he could eventually be named the number one prospect in all of baseball.

[00:33:56] He has immense upside he plays a premium position and ultimately when it comes to the Mariners farm system he's going to be the first to go. He is farther along than Felene Celestine is which is the only player in the farm system talent wise he compares to.

[00:34:11] So that's why my answer would be that because you'd see Colt Emerson a year before you'd see Felene.

[00:34:18] Isn't it crazy that while it's not fair to do the Corey Seeger comp for Colt Emerson the fact we've heard people say that number one and then there's the similarities of Corey Seeger was picked in the 20s left handed high school bat shot his way through the minors jumped up

[00:34:35] the prospect rankings and was a top three prospect when he debuted kind of feels like Colt Emerson has a chance to do the exact same thing and that's wild.

[00:34:45] I can't promise and I don't think anybody can promise he's going to be Corey Seeger and to put those expectations on him just isn't fair but the fact there's people out there saying yeah Colt Emerson could be the number one prospect in baseball here soon enough is is crazy.

[00:34:58] And Mariners fans should be fired up about it. I actually pick Felene Celestine is my number one.

[00:35:04] Now Colt Emerson was a very very close second but I feel like Felene's got a chance to be a number one prospect in baseball at some point too and the fact he's got a 984 OPS in the complex league right now.

[00:35:16] I know it's the complex league but we're seeing our first glimpse of Felene Celestine stateside this year and what he can do and I'm sitting there watching and saying wow so we Mariners have two guys who I don't want to see them go anyway.

[00:35:29] They're going to be the best players you can be anywhere with. They better stay in this system. Yeah they can both stay. That's fine. We covered the base we use this segment to say please don't trade those players. Thank you. Yes correct. Yep.

[00:35:45] The next question comes from Asher underscore Aver Butch on Instagram and this question is who's one current player you would love to have on the 116 win 2001 Mariner team.

[00:35:53] We just talked about him but can I say Andres Munoz if you're going to look at that 01 roster it was really good.

[00:36:02] It wasn't perfect if you go down position by position but number one there weren't a lot a lot of relievers that were throwing the way Munoz was throwing back then there might not have been any to be totally honest with you.

[00:36:13] And when you look at the Mariners bullpen Kazuhiro Sasaki was phenomenal Arthur Rhodes was phenomenal but if you had a true true dynamite closer ahead of those two to form a three headed monster that year I would do a lot.

[00:36:28] That shortens games to six innings and when you already have guys in your rotation like Freddie Garcia like Aaron Sealy like Jamie Moyer who can easily go six strong give it right off to a bullpen after that.

[00:36:39] Munoz was my pick too I mean he would be talked about in lore if you pitched on that team with the stuff he currently has like the one player in baseball who throws 103 miles an hour back then the one guy out of the bullpen he's got this insane slider and all this stuff like that.

[00:36:56] That would be pretty insane I think that's the easy one I think if we saw Brash this year Brash you could make a case for him too just because I mean legitimately they would talk about him in the history books.

[00:37:05] It's like could you remember seeing this guy he was absolutely insane right and then my other my last honorable mention if you wanted a little bit more upside in the rotation I know the rotation was insane it was the best in baseball all five guys made every single start that season which is insane

[00:37:24] and they like legitimately didn't have to worry about the rotation at all but I think that rotation if they added a current day Logan Gilbert would they wouldn't complain about that because that dude has unbelievable stuff that outside of a select few guys just wasn't a thing in 2001.

[00:37:43] Yeah imagine Logan Gilbert pitching at the top of that rotation with Freddie Garcia and you have Aaron Sealy and Jamie Moore behind him. A lot of teams use four starters in the playoffs now.

[00:37:53] Imagine if the Mariners had that luxury back then and you talk about Munoz being discussed in lore. Logan Gilbert might be too. You're talking about it due to 6'6 has insane extension and gets right on top of you he throws 99 he's got six pitches in his arsenal that wasn't a thing back then.

[00:38:09] Nope. That would be a lot of fun maybe they would beat the Yankees wouldn't be so traumatized. Stupid Derek Jeter flip the Mariners should have gotten to play the A's that year and if the Mariners played the A's they would have beat them so.

[00:38:23] Yeah what do you want the world also.

[00:38:25] That dying vaccine was pretty good with Randy and Kurt Schilling like I won't say for sure but better chance that's for sure. Also shout out my friend Alex when you were talking about Matt Brash how you said Brash would have been talked about in the lore.

[00:38:39] He put out a tweet last year on opening night that kind of blew up and I think it was hilarious he tweeted that video about Brash striking out Jose Ramirez when Ramirez fell on his backside and my friend Alex captioned it with if Matt Brash threw a baseball in February of 1692 he'd be burnt.

[00:38:54] At the stake which well is there a point there maybe probably like yeah but yeah that's a fun question that that oh one team it's fun to reminisce on but I'd also like to see a current version of the Mariners do something like the

[00:39:10] oh one team that would be awesome. Nice and relaxing you know yeah exactly okay next question we have two more to go this is from BDN 55540 on Instagram he says since Jerry's contract hasn't been extended will the M's be more aggressive at the deadline.

[00:39:30] I think the M's should be aggressive at the deadline no matter what Jerry DePoto's contract status is and I don't think just because of what Jerry DePoto's contract status is they will be more aggressive.

[00:39:43] If this was a real thing if this what would actually happen and Jerry didn't believe he would be part of the Mariners next year he would trade Colt Emerson or Felonine Selston or both in attempt to massively upgrade the roster.

[00:39:56] I don't think he's going to do that therefore I don't think because he doesn't have a contract yet that we know of that he's going to trade those guys that would be more of a jacksy thing that would be more of a more of a different incumbent.

[00:40:12] President of baseball operations move opposed to what Jerry DePoto will do ultimately we'll see but I don't think so I think they should be aggressive no matter what it is because frankly the Mariners us as Mariners are going to be more aggressive.

[00:40:26] I think these fans deserve an aggressive deadline in a push to the playoffs because you and I know what happens if they don't make it.

[00:40:33] I think they should be aggressive I think they should go out and get some real pieces but Jerry DePoto is also not AJ Prelar and Jerry DePoto will never do what AJ Prelar does that's not his style it's not a sustainable style and with the Mariners knowing

[00:40:48] that they're a franchise that doesn't have unlimited payroll there are other ways they have to build a great team and part of that is through the draft through international signing and having good farm systems.

[00:41:00] So because Jerry understands that and he very well does like if the two of us understand it we know Jerry DePoto and Justin Hollander understand it that contract or not they're not just going to ship all these guys out of town for two months to have a potential run.

[00:41:14] They're just not going to do it so I don't think Jerry DePoto is going to do that.

[00:41:19] I think the Mariners should be aggressive like you I don't think they're going to be irresponsible but to the point of the contract that being said like the Mariners need to get this done.

[00:41:30] I know they've gotten it done in September a lot of years but I don't know what we're waiting for like I know not everybody out there loves Jerry DePoto.

[00:41:37] I would challenge anybody who doesn't to tell me who you feel comfortable like who you'd want to see get brought in instead and do you trust the group that would be responsible for hiring the new president of baseball operations and the entire staff to do a successful job with a new hire.

[00:41:54] I think Jerry DePoto has done a lot for this organization. I think they're headed in a good direction. I think they have a window that's going to stay open for a while with all these prospects and all the bats they have coming.

[00:42:03] So I hope they get this contract done. Yeah. And still again hope they're aggressive at this deadline because they need this roster needs it.

[00:42:11] It needs it contract or not the final mail bag question we have is from Micah B. Millard on Instagram and his question is make a convincing case for Felix Hernandez to be inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame. So you can make a case.

[00:42:31] I don't think Felix is going to end up getting in. I just don't know if he quite sustained dominance for long enough to do it.

[00:42:39] But if you do want to make a case most 50 war pitchers seem to get into the Hall of Fame more often than not that happens. Felix was a couple percentages shy of 50 wins above replacement for his career. Here's an example. Jim Cat of the twins.

[00:42:55] He pitched through the 60s the 70s tiny bit into the 80s. He pitched for 25 years. He threw a lot more innings and pitched for a lot longer than Felix did yet the two had nearly the same career war.

[00:43:08] Felix has the lower career era Felix has a Cy Young where Jim Cat doesn't Felix also has six top 10 Cy Young finishes. Cat had to.

[00:43:19] So if you want to compare Felix Hernandez to some other guys that are in the Hall of Fame you can do it and there are cases but it's still going to be a tough case. The difference is now that Felix will get hurt because he didn't pitch enough.

[00:43:35] I would say back in the day they were back in the day. I mean you go back into the 1900s anytime there when guys were getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. I think the bar was a little bit lower to make it in the Hall of Fame.

[00:43:47] There are some players in the Hall of Fame who are in fact average players. So if you go off of that theory sure but modern day we have a lot of statistics available to us and the process to get into the Hall of Fame is evolving.

[00:44:03] That it just is less likely based on the volume that Felix has pitched it is less likely. There's a few stats you could cherry pick and make a case for Felix. For example he has more strikeouts than a notable modern Hall of Famer Roy Halliday.

[00:44:19] He's got more K's than he does. He's got more K's than my namesake in the Hall of Fame Kristi Matheson. Pitched in a different era however he's got more strikeouts than him. More strikeouts than Jim Morris and a bunch of other Hall of Famers.

[00:44:32] How about a true modern example these guys have been compared quite a lot when they were pitching. He has pitched more innings than Clayton Kershawd you know that. Clayton Kershawd has a slam down Hall of Famer. That's actually kind of crazy. More innings than Kershawd.

[00:44:48] Now Kershawd is the better pitcher no doubt. He's got four side-youngs he's got an MVP. I wouldn't argue that for a second. Clayton Kershawd will go down as one of the three greatest left-earing handing pitchers of all time. He's insane. Correct.

[00:45:02] But if we're talking about volume I mean Kershawd is getting in without much of an issue. He's going to get in the high 90s of votes when he gets on the ballot. When he eventually retires and he'll retire soon.

[00:45:12] He could retire with less innings than Felix but Felix has pitched more innings than him believe it or not. How about a higher here's a knee stat. It's called adjusted war seven so war seven takes your seven best your best seven year stretch of war

[00:45:29] and accumulates it together into one number. That stat is helped use to calculate Jaws which Jay Jaffe came up with where you add a player's career war his war seven you add them together and you divide them by two so you can measure

[00:45:47] how much better was this player outside of their peak seven years and it helps I'd say raise the bar for guys who had an amazing seven years and lowers the bar for guys who had great long careers but weren't as good at their peaks.

[00:46:02] So that's what that number does so adjusted war seven accounts it tries to adjust the pitchers used to throw 350 innings it essentially caps your season for the old guys at 250 innings and makes it more favorable for modern pitchers who don't throw 250 innings.

[00:46:21] Here are some guys who Felix has a higher adjusted war seven where he ranks 65th after adjusting for some of these in-n-counts by the way 65th all time and there are 66 pitchers in the Hall of Fame might I know 66 and Felix on this list is 65th.

[00:46:40] Do you think Kerkol's going to be Hall of Famer? He's trying in that way. He's trying in that way well Felix has a higher adjusted war seven than he does that's one thing to note.

[00:46:51] He's got a higher adjusted war seven than you might have heard of this guy Nolan Ryan. Yeah, that guy was half decent. And plenty of other Hall of Famers Felix has a higher adjusted war seven then. So it's not impossible to make a case for Felix.

[00:47:06] It's not I don't think it's a slam dunk case he probably could have used three to four more peak Felix seasons or close to peak Felix seasons then he would have an almost certain case for the Hall of Fame.

[00:47:20] The problem is Felix spent a few years in the middle and then a couple of really bad seasons at the end which left a sour taste in many of our mouths in terms of how he's getting in the Hall of Fame but it's not impossible.

[00:47:36] You know there's only 28 guys who have appeared in as many or more of the top five in Sayang voting appearances. That's it. That's something. It's really good. Yeah, I mean if you want to just use the Herald Banes meter Felix is getting in.

[00:47:53] I've seen people on Twitter talk about that a lot when any player passes the Herald Banes meter meaning you surpass 38.8 career wins above replacement aka war. Like people will be like he passed the Banes meter.

[00:48:06] He passed the Herald Banes meter because Herald Banes got in with less than 40 wins above replacement for his career. I think a lot of people feel like Herald Banes probably wasn't a Hall of Fame caliber player but if you want to use that for Felix you can.

[00:48:18] Herald Banes played 22 years. Felix played 15 and when you look at Felix's peak even though he probably could have used more of a 10-year stretch of dominance. That seven-year stretch of dominance he had from 09 to 2015. He was one of the games best.

[00:48:33] He was in the top three to four pitchers in baseball year after year. It's right up there with Kershaw. He was right up there with others and the fact he has six top ten Sayang finishes says a lot.

[00:48:45] I do wonder if his case would be elevated had the voters actually gotten it right in 2014 and given him that Sayang over Corey Kluber. If you have that second Sayang right now, you think people will look at him different? It would help because that list is pretty exclusive.

[00:48:59] I think there's less than 10, right? Less than 10 guys who have won multiple? Well yeah and Blake Snell is one of them. Yeah which makes it a really interesting game. Blake Snell is not a Hall of Famer but which is why it's a really interesting list

[00:49:12] because Corey Kluber is not a Hall of Famer but he's won multiple Sayang's and was one of the best pitchers of his decade. He unfortunately didn't have that length. Felix had more length than Corey Kluber did. Yeah so there is a case.

[00:49:26] If you just heard the two of us dive into it and TJ really dove into it, there is a case but I think both of us are in agreement here and saying it will be tough. Yeah it'll be tough for him. We hope he makes it.

[00:49:38] It'll be pretty cool. His speech would be pretty amazing but unfortunately I think Felix right now lands in the Hall of Very Good. I would agree with that. Hey if he gets in are we going to Cooperstown? I'm down. I'm down. Are you having fun?

[00:49:53] It was really fun. What was the last time you were there? Yeah. I've been twice. I think the most recent time was in high school. I was 10. It's been a while. Long time. If he makes it, if he makes it I'm in. Yeah. We tried. Yeah same here.

[00:50:14] Same here. All right let's close out the show now. That was great mail bag questions as always guys. I'll talk to you guys in a minute. I'm going to talk to another mail bag in about a month. Good range of questions.

[00:50:27] I thought that was a lot of fun but let's close out the show now with Speak Your Mind. Speak your mind Spock. That would be unwise. What is necessary is never unwise. What's on your mind Lyle?

[00:50:47] You know I was talking to you last Friday when we got done hosting Brock and Salk and so focused on preparing for that show and doing that show and making sure it went smoothly to really see much of what was coming in days past that

[00:51:04] and weeks past that. And the second we got done with that show I kind of this realization once we were done with it we felt good about it. I don't want to say it was a weight lifted off our chest because we were excited about it

[00:51:14] but I think both of us were very, very detailed about wanting to get it right. So once that was over I sat there and thought to myself, well we're going to Dallas in a week for All Star Week and now sitting here recording this podcast

[00:51:27] it's a day till we leave. So I think that's what's mostly on my mind right now is this is our second All Star Week. It's our second in two years. It's also the first one we've traveled for and I'm really, really excited about it.

[00:51:41] I think we've got a lot of fun stuff in mind. I think we're going to do a lot while we're there and yeah I've been thinking about it basically since we ended hosting the show on Brock and Salk last week that sitting here

[00:51:52] thinking about that yeah I can't wait to go. And I can't blame us for doing that on Brock and Salk because think about it like in just to peel back the curtain for some of our listeners in reality it's an audition is that that's what we were doing.

[00:52:05] We were auditioning to get more opportunities because you don't get, you don't always get opportunities like that. So if you do get it on commercial radio, on big market radio, you want to do well. Like you really want to put all your effort into it.

[00:52:24] You want to sound right even if you aren't. Of course there are some people with some of the clips we posted in the last couple of days who say we weren't

[00:52:31] which is you know it's fine that doesn't matter but ultimately you want to spend all the energy possible to make sure an opportunity like that comes out again and which I think it will by the way

[00:52:40] based on some of the feedback we've gotten but anyways so like it makes sense we spent all that time on that but now you're right we get the we get the sort of clearance of that and now the opportunity to go

[00:52:51] to mull around in Dallas and meet some fans hopefully some of you will be out there in Dallas as well. That would be super awesome if we get to run into some of you and you know network among the content community

[00:53:01] and some of the more legacy media community some of the guys people we ran into at All Star Week last year in Seattle that we hope to also run into here in Dallas.

[00:53:10] I've never been to Dallas so like checking off new cities so that'll be a fun part of it as well and yeah it should be a lot of fun it'll be a little hot which is fine but it's gonna be a blast.

[00:53:21] I'm really looking forward to it we got some fun content ideas that I don't think we've done yet which is nice so we get to try some new things I know people always like new things

[00:53:29] and new ideas and we're hoping to use them so it'll be a lot of fun. We'll try and vlog the entire thing. I'll be on our YouTube channel you guys can come along for the ride with us whenever we get to get around to posting those

[00:53:40] so that should all be a lot of fun too so I'm really looking forward to it as well. Yeah we were sitting brainstorming this week about what type of stuff we wanted to do at All Star Week

[00:53:49] and I think the two of us put our heads together and thought of some ideas that like you said we haven't done yet both for social media for YouTube vlogs and we think people are really gonna enjoy them so hopefully you're keeping your eyes peeled

[00:54:01] on our social pages and our YouTube pages to see all that stuff and yeah I think as long as we have the opportunity to do it which we will since we're going

[00:54:11] it's gonna be really fun and I think we're gonna connect with a lot of the people too that we've had on this podcast even to be what we haven't had on the podcast that we've connected with in the past that are big in the content community

[00:54:23] or just in the baseball community it's fun. Like All Star Week is one of the two times of the year where the whole baseball world really comes together and All Star Week even more so than the winter meetings.

[00:54:34] The winter meetings is the other time where you kind of have the whole baseball world together but All Star Week there's so many people there. You have all the players that come into town, you have all the legacy media that comes into town,

[00:54:44] you have all these content creators that come into town, you have all these celebrities that come into town. Like the opportunities at All Star Week to do a bunch of content, to meet a bunch of people

[00:54:55] and really to have a bunch of fun it's endless so we're really excited about it. We'll get a celeb on the mic. Which celeb should we get? I hope so. Sydney Sweeney? Why would she be at All Star Week? Why not is the real question.

[00:55:11] I think there's a better chance she would throw out a first pitch at a Mariners game than being at All Star Week because I'm pretty sure she's from Washington. Yeah, it'll be good so we'll get her on the mic then.

[00:55:21] But any other celebrities that decide to show up there like Dua Lipa shows up getting on the mic. Yeah, whatever you say. Listen if you want to talk about celebrities that could be content people

[00:55:32] like two guys we really like are the broadcast boys who have a huge channel. They're going to be there. They're playing in the celebrity softball game so the potential to run into them would be really fun. But if you're thinking of real celebrities.

[00:55:45] Well there are real celebrities in that the celebrity softball game too. Actors and singers. Exactly. So who are we going to see? Again like you kind of don't know and that's kind of half the fun of it.

[00:56:01] There's people we're already planning to meet up with, like to meet with and to meet up with but there's also the unknown factor of who you might just run into and talk to

[00:56:10] and might get on the mic for some social media stuff so yeah I think we're excited. Yeah we are excited. The other thing I have for Speak Your Mind I just want to give a shout out to

[00:56:20] the people creating House of the Dragon. They have done a phenomenal job. Me as one of the biggest Game of Thrones snobs on this planet who has watched the original series four times through. You know it's when I do that it's hard for a spin-off series

[00:56:38] to meet my expectations in the same realm and yeah they've done it. I'm not going to spoil anything but the last episode they did episode four halfway through their second season I mean it's just phenomenal.

[00:56:49] It was it is so good. Just the fact that you're able to consistently make good episodes after you messed up season eight of Game of Thrones just so bad you just ruined it. And to come back make a spin-off on a different storyline earlier in the timeline

[00:57:05] and make it really good with all the CGI and stuff with the dragons. It's just amazing so I need to give them a shout out. They've done a phenomenal job they made my Sundays significantly better. Yeah it's been really good and I've been watching too.

[00:57:18] I don't want to spoil anything either but there's not a lot of TV series out there or movie series that make spin-offs and just nail it. They have nailed it and I hope it continues to be a really really good show

[00:57:30] because it seems like it's trending that way. Yeah they have four seasons too so and you know they they're going to do a lot. I think they're filming another spin-off right now so as long as the same people keep directing it I think it'll still be pretty good.

[00:57:42] I'm interested to see if they were to make a show without dragons in it how it would do because the lore of dragons make it they just they make it it makes it look a lot better.

[00:57:52] I'll say the current like House of the Dragon as you would imagine has so many dragons and it's so beautifully shot and the graphics of how they create these things is just amazing so to have a show without that would certainly be more interesting.

[00:58:08] So let's see how they do it. I think the next spin-off they're doing does not have dragons in it so I'd be curious to see how they do it. Yeah me too. I'm sure I'll watch that one also whenever it comes out

[00:58:18] but hopefully they've got a plan for it. Hopefully they've got some ways to keep people engaged and interested. I guess we'll see. Yeah we will. Alright I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast.

[00:58:32] One final reminder episodes this upcoming week are going to be Monday and Friday instead of Wednesday and Friday after that it'll be back to normal programming normal Wednesday Friday episodes so you guys know the drill you want to listen to the podcast make sure to download these episodes

[00:58:49] leave a five-star review leave a written review make sure if you're watching on YouTube to like comment and subscribe then check us out on social media we're on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer pod.

[00:59:00] That's TJ I'm Lyle as always we thank you guys for tuning in talk to you soon.