Episode 148: Ty France's Time In Seattle Is Over, And What Are The Consequences If The Mariners Miss The Playoffs?

[00:00:00] Welcome to Episode 148 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We've got a lot to talk about. JP Crawford hits the injured list. Ty Frances is gone. The Mariners have lost their lead in first place. And we'll also discuss with the Mariners recent slide what the consequences will be

[00:00:16] if the Mariners miss the playoffs. Let's get it rolling. Totally feeble. How about that? That's a good one. Pulling from a legend. Feeble. That's a good way to describe it. And I think it's properly used after Monday night's game. Holy shit. Holy shit.

[00:01:24] Like, I know sometimes we curse on the show. Sometimes we don't. I'm just giving people a warning right now before we even get further into this. This is probably going to be a cursing show. Like total fucking disaster on Monday night.

[00:01:37] How else do you want to say it? What's, you know what's so frustrating and why we would swear more on this? Like these games, there are seven games between now and the trade deadline.

[00:01:48] There are seven games between now and then when you actually have to decide what direction you're going. And you know what? It's really hard to justify right now looking at this team play. Oh yeah. This team needs to be added to.

[00:02:05] Because that's going to change a whole lot. It's going to change a whole lot. Except you can't sell because what are you selling? You have nothing. That's why it's the worst position in the world. Let me say this right now before we even get further into the show.

[00:02:24] I said this to you before we started recording. I want to bring this onto the airwaves. If the Mariners do not have three bats on this, three new bats on this roster by August 1st that are all higher than 100 WRC plus hitters.

[00:02:39] If so, if the Mariners do not have three new above average bats on this roster by by August 1st, I'm declaring the season over like I'm waiting over. Like I don't think anybody needs an explanation of what this offense has been this year.

[00:02:55] But just in case you're wondering like why do I think personally they need to go get three maybe four? New bats? Let's just read down the list here. So this is what the Mariners offense is up to as of late.

[00:03:08] We're going to get into JP Crawford here in a minute, but it encapsulates everything. Cal's been pretty good over the last month. Victor Robles has been a really nice shot in the arm for the Mariners. Those are the two.

[00:03:19] Aside from that, the Mariners are now going to start playing Jason Bossler at first base for the foreseeable future. A guy who has played less than 100 big league games and has a career 86 WRC plus on a first place team in the AOS. That's our new first baseman.

[00:03:37] Second base, Polanco pretty self-explanatory. He's had a career worst season. JP going over to shortstop broken pinky. Now he's on the IL. He's very much had a down year too. Third base. Remember Josh Rojas is red hot first month and a half.

[00:03:52] Since May 15th, Josh Rojas has a 59 WRC plus. That is a stretch of about two and a half months now. Oh no, by the way, Luis Arias, the other guy that was supposed to be playing third base for a majority of this year.

[00:04:07] He's been in the minors for weeks and weeks now. Luke Rayleigh last 30 games, 638 OPS. Mitch Garver last 30 games, 606 OPS. Julio currently hurt or he's day to day, but he's hurt. Dom Kanzon hurt. Mitch Hanegger entered Monday with a 12 weighted runs created plus against left-handed pitching for the year.

[00:04:30] And we've talked about he has been one of the worst qualified players in baseball by war. That is the offense they're rolling out on a nightly basis and it all gets encapsulated by Monday's one run performance

[00:04:45] where they lost to one nothing lead and dropped the game to the Angels. That's your offense right now. Nothing highlighted that more in the eighth inning. Classe gets on. Luke Rayleigh got a pitch 95 right down middle, right down the middle. Pop up into foul territory out.

[00:05:06] Then there was a there's a strike. I don't have the place pulled up, but you get my point. It was just inconceivable how that inning and the rest of Monday's game played out.

[00:05:20] Here's a question for you, Lyle, because we'll get into Ty France a little bit too later. If you're going to rank the Mariners current starting lineup one through nine, does Ty France rank in the top half of that lineup?

[00:05:33] So we're not including Julio in this like in the current moment because he's not playing? Correct. So for the like for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday's lineup, however many couple days Julio misses. He's not included. Well, you would have Robles, you would have Cal. I guess you would have Rayleigh.

[00:05:54] I guess. I don't know after that. Ty France is going to get DFA tomorrow on Tuesday. He's gone. His lockers cleared out. He's packed up. He's done. He's gone and he would rank currently. Any top half of a lineup you could put out right now.

[00:06:12] That is where the Mariners are at right now. That. Does that hurt? If you're listening right now, does that pain your ears to listen to? Because that's a team that is currently somehow tied for first place somehow, but they certainly don't deserve to.

[00:06:33] Like the amount of tweets online that we're referencing. They're playing like a team that gets people fired. That's true. How like how do you? How are you in first place and that is also true? How is that possible? I don't know. I really, really don't know.

[00:06:53] And that is going to be a big topic of this show about what this team and this organization looks like if they miss the playoffs this year. Like. What do they do from here? Seriously, what do they do?

[00:07:07] This is why I'm sitting here talking about they need three to four new bats. If you think that's crazy again, like we talked about on other shows, I am not sitting here and saying they have to go get Luis Robert and then Vladdy and then Esauk Parade.

[00:07:21] No, nobody's saying that do what the Braves did in 2021. Go get three, four dude. I don't care five bats. Go get five new bats all of them slightly above league average. And for the million time, I'll say this. That might not sound inspiring to people.

[00:07:38] You don't even like, no, Mariners fans know Mariners fans are smart, but like I just cannot stress enough. I'll put it like this. I cannot stress enough the vast drastic difference having five slightly above league average bats does for this team right now.

[00:07:55] Slightly again, if you go if you go and get Michael Confort or to play right field, that's like a 25% upgrade over Mitch Hannigar by WRC plus 25% is a lot. A lot. Like that would do a lot and there's a week till the deadline.

[00:08:12] So I really, really hope we see some new faces in the next week. Do you know what sucks? Sounds like the trade market is not popping. Sounds like there's not many players who are actually available.

[00:08:25] So you know what happens if there's not a lot of guys available and the Mariners can only swing one trade for someone that we would deem good enough. They're not making the playoffs. This is not a playoff team. Well, it's not a playoff offense to play off rotation.

[00:08:42] Sure, like lost in lost in all of this here on Monday night is Bryce Miller was awesome. He went seven shutout. I know it's the angels, but he went seven shutout.

[00:08:52] Bryce Miller was really good and that's now gotten totally overshadowed by an offense that has been totally incapable a lot of the year, but especially in the last month and a bullpen that has blown a lot of leads as of late.

[00:09:07] And it gets so much more complicated to now, Lyle, because if JP's out a month, you need a shortstop. You cannot run a backup out there for a month. Not during this stretch. You need production.

[00:09:20] If the Mariners want to make a run in the playoffs, it does not involve a month of Leo Rivas playing shortstop. No, no, you need it doesn't need to be a superstar and you know there's not superstar shortstops available at the deadline.

[00:09:34] You certainly need someone who is a valuable big leaguer above average. Like that's what you need even if JP Crawford comes back because I'm sorry the entire regime, the entire roster cannot wait a month. They cannot.

[00:09:50] Like, let me say this, if there's still people mad, worried, concerned about any clubhouse issues jazz chism might bring, throw them aside because they kind of need that guy right now. You want to talk about somebody that could potentially play some shortstop.

[00:10:09] He's not good defensively at shortstop, but he is an athlete who can hit, who can steal a lot of money.

[00:10:17] He can hit, who can steal bases who has a little bit of power and he could fill the void to some extent because Polanco is not going anywhere at this point.

[00:10:26] You could have jazz come in and play a little bit of short, play a little bit of outfield if you need some days at second, he plays second. Like something like put the whole clubhouse thing aside.

[00:10:37] Again, like the gripes people have about jazz chism in the clubhouse are things like, there's a little self-centered reportedly. Like it's things like that.

[00:10:48] And I'll tell you what, I think the Mariners could manage having jazz in the clubhouse, especially if he was going to help the team win. I would be saying the same thing if Julio was on the injured list too right now.

[00:11:05] If he was out, if he had actually hurt himself running into the wall, sounds like he's day-to-day, his mild ankle sprain for Julio. If he was actually out for any semblance of time, like jazz would also make sense for that.

[00:11:16] Like say, he's available, you almost have to take the risk of if it doesn't work, if it flames out, what's worse? You try and everything flames out, you acquire bad players, it's a bad mix for two months.

[00:11:30] They don't produce coming up to Seattle and you miss the playoffs. So is that worse than waiting for your players to get back and you also miss the playoffs? Because there is really only one option right now. We've thrown out every, we've talked about most options on this.

[00:11:47] We've floated the option that the best, if the front office thought the only way this team makes the playoffs is if the guys on the current roster turn it around and play better?

[00:11:57] I'm sorry, that option's out the window right now because as we said, this current roster most likely will not make the playoffs on its own. They're not good enough. They're flat out not good enough. So that's why you would need to take a risk like that.

[00:12:14] And if jazz is the only guy who's available, then you got to suck it up. Whatever the price may be, you have to make it happen. If making the playoffs is the ultimatum of this season, then it has to happen. 100% has to happen. This is frustrating, man.

[00:12:32] God damn. I was waiting to record this after a 1-0 victory, good performance. The Mariners are rolling in the right direction, but man, the bricks are falling down right now. They're falling flat on their face.

[00:12:46] Would it really be all sunshine and roses on this podcast if they won 1-0 against the Angels? I don't know about all that. If J.P. Crawford didn't break his pinky, yeah. There would be a slightly more positive tone than what we are.

[00:12:59] Oh, it would be slightly more positive. But I think we'd be saying the same old story about the offense. Here's the thing though. Again, I'm going to come back to number. There are seven games between now and the deadline. Seven games.

[00:13:13] How do you treat the next seven games? Well, you better win. Yeah. And then you better go and acquire players. You know, Nico Horner sounds a little more enticing than he once did with this J.P. Crawford injury. I got to be honest. Yep.

[00:13:30] I want to double check this. Doesn't need to be amazing. Right. He's about a 95 WRC plus hitter, which is not unbelievable by any means. That's about what J.P. did this year.

[00:13:43] It's probably right around with J.P.'s been, or it's probably a little better than what J.P.'s been. Yeah. So that would be fine? I'm just checking as we currently speak. I believe Horner has played some shortstop. I just want to get that right.

[00:13:59] He was a college shortstop. Yeah, he played shortstop. What was I going to say? Yeah. I mean, he plays second and he's played short. Yeah, he could play short. So. So like you go get Horner. Like that's the answer to your question, DJ.

[00:14:11] Like how do you treat the next seven games? You got to win and go get guys. Go get Nico Horner to play shortstop and fill the void. Like when J.P. comes back, he can move around a few different places because Horner can play some third too.

[00:14:22] He can even play a little bit of outfield. He's actually decently versatile. But you go get Horner because the Cubs said as of Monday they are going to sell. You go get Jazz. You go get Lane Thomas.

[00:14:34] I can't imagine the Nationals are going to keep him and they're not in the playoff race really. I mean, if you want to call four and a half out being slightly on, I mean,

[00:14:43] being a few games under 500 competing, I guess, but like Nationals aren't making the playoffs this year. Lane Thomas isn't going to be a part of their future. They're going to have a young 30 and they've got a young core coming up.

[00:14:53] They're going to have wood crews, et cetera, playing the outfield. Like they're going to have a new outfield. Lane Thomas, another very, very sensible target. Like there's three guys right there and go get Kim Porto too.

[00:15:04] Like there's four bats and oh, by the way, none of those guys are going to cost you significant pieces from your farm system. None of them. And even if the teams are balking and make you give up more than what you want to? Too bad.

[00:15:18] And by making you give up more than what you want to is like it's all perspective. It's all firms, but like a certain point of view, right? Right. More than you're asking for or like making you give up more than you're trying to give

[00:15:33] up is not giving up Felne or Colt Emerson. It's giving up guys in the mid tiers of your prospect rankings. Right. But something like that better not hang up anything. I, here's the last statement on this. I don't care about 20, 25 right now. I don't know at all.

[00:15:51] I care about, I care about what these next two months in town. You cannot waste this rotation. They've been too good, too dominant and most of them, aside from Brian Wu have essentially made every turn in the rotation. Give them some help.

[00:16:07] And even if you somehow lose this series to the angels and then you go on the road and you also lose a series to the White Sox. I don't care. You still have to buy.

[00:16:16] There's a nothing to sell and B there's no, there's no win in staying flat. There's, there's none of that. There's none of that. Something tells me before we move on that next Wednesday's podcast, if they don't make some substantial moves is going to sound very similar

[00:16:35] to this one. And honestly, if you think the tones are brash now, it might get worse in a week if they don't make some moves. We're going to be on pins and needles next week. Next Tuesday at 3pm Pacific is the deadline. So buckle up. Yes, buckle up.

[00:16:51] Okay, we've still got a couple other things to get to in the show before that let's talk to you about our friends over at Pagotius Pub 85. You guys know, we'll continue to talk about it's an awesome spot

[00:17:01] to go hang out, have some great food, drinks, play some games, watch sporting events, whatever you want. It's, it's the whole nine yards for you. So if you want to have an awesome time with your friends, head over there. You want to get some great happy hour specials.

[00:17:14] Head over there. It's Monday through Friday from 2pm to 6pm, three and four dollar drinks. Head over early, get some great happy hour deals. Plan a night with your friends, go watch some sporting events. It's a really, really fun time. All that over Pagotius Pub 85 in Kirkland.

[00:17:29] Where do you want to go next? Do you want to go tie? Do you want to go JP? Do we want to go consequences? How do we want to order this? We can do JP first because this is the most recent news.

[00:17:40] He took a ball off his finger. He got hit by a pitch tonight. Didn't take long for them to diagnose it. And he got to first base. They took him out of the game. And now he's on the IL for a few weeks,

[00:17:54] few weeks the Mariners don't have for him to sit on the injured list. But he's going to have to if he's going to get healthy for the stretch run of the season. What are they, what do they do? Like now, as we talked about earlier,

[00:18:08] shortstop and middle infielder is now circled on your trade that deadline to do because it wouldn't hurt to have another infielder. It could probably make the rest of your infield better too, given the bats at both third base and second base this season.

[00:18:24] So that like that's got to be the strategy right now with JP Crawford being out. Yeah, I feel like there's not that much more to cover with this than what we just talked about in the first part of the podcast.

[00:18:34] You're going to have to go trade for somebody if you're serious about winning. It cannot involve playing a backup for a month straight. Can't even be playing Dylan Moore for a month straight. That's not Demos role.

[00:18:47] Demos meant to be moved around and play certain matchups and be versatile. He's a bench player. He's a really good bench player. I don't think he's meant to start a month straight of games at shortstop.

[00:18:57] So that means they're going to have to go get somebody from outside the organization. So that much more to say on it than that. I feel like we covered a lot of it. It's been a bad day for the Crawford, Ty France best friendship bad day.

[00:19:09] Yeah, it has. Lockers right next to each other. JP was quoted in the Seattle Times articles like I can't believe his locker is not going to be next to mine. And now they will both not be in a mariner uniform for the next month. At least.

[00:19:22] And tie for a bit longer again. Like I don't know how much else there is to say on JP other than injury sucks. It's really bad luck. It's awful timing. And you just hope he gets back on the field healthy as soon as he possibly can.

[00:19:35] Let's get to Ty France. So he was placed on. Let me pronounce this correctly. Irrevocable waivers. No, that right? No, no, no, vocable. Yes, there you go. Irrevocable waivers. Okay. I tried. I tried.

[00:19:50] So he was placed on waivers yesterday on Sunday after the game by the time this podcast is out. He will have gone through those waivers. I'm guessing he's going to get DFA. I don't think he's going to get claimed, but I could be wrong.

[00:20:07] So here's how those waivers work. So they put him on waivers for 24 out 48 hours. Sorry. A team has 48 hours to claim him. If they do claim him, all they have to do is take on Ty France's remaining salary, which is about two and a half million dollars.

[00:20:22] And he can go play there for the rest of the season without costing the Mariners anything. He can clear waivers and the Mariners can DFA him. They can outright him to Tacoma.

[00:20:32] He could accept an outright to Tacoma and go play in the minor leagues or he could decline an outright and outright and be a free agent where he is therefore free to sign with a team and play for the major league minimum.

[00:20:44] The Mariners would owe him the rest of his salary for this season. So we don't know exactly what will happen with Ty France, but that's what happened. After Sunday's game, Ty France will now no longer be the first baseman of the Seattle Mariners.

[00:20:59] It all turned a while that injury in Oakland in 2022 all turned the collision at first base. He's not been the same hitter since since the all star break of 2022. Ty France has a 100 WRC plus not getting on base a ton, not hitting for a lot of power.

[00:21:20] And this is a guy before that that 138 WRC plus I lost them a number for a second 138 before that 100 after and it's sad. You don't think that injury is still lingering do you? I don't think it is.

[00:21:40] No, but it certainly was a didn't help that season because he was having a really good year had to go on the I L ruined his momentum.

[00:21:51] I don't know if there was an injury that hampered his training in the off season as he got ready for 2023 had an ultra disappointing 2023. And this year, as Ryan Divish noted that he was not finding the amount of success he wanted to with his driveline stuff.

[00:22:11] And he was reverting back to a little bit of what he was doing in the past before he went to driveline and certainly that didn't help.

[00:22:17] So I don't know, but ultimately, ultimately he has not been the same since that moment, which stinks because the version of Ty France the Mariners got before that was exactly what they need right now. Exactly. Got a bunch of hits.

[00:22:37] That's a ball guy perfect to hit her hit for a high average had 17 to 20 home run power was an all star. Remember in 2021 he was like, he was basically robbed of being a gold glove finalist because he had a really good year defensively.

[00:22:52] I think he's do a lot of things really, really well and it's all kind of gone downhill since and it's tough to say it. It's not fun to say because he's been a fan favorite here for a few years now for good reason. Like really good dude.

[00:23:06] He's loved in that clubhouse again all for very, very good reasons, but production just wasn't there.

[00:23:13] It really, really wasn't there again when you can't break a league average weighted runs created plus over a two year stretch at a position that is in dire need or not just in dire need of offense.

[00:23:24] It is a position that's a premium offensive position and you are expected to have a guy there that can flat out hit and hit with authority. Sadly, since that injury in Oakland in 2022, Ty France hasn't done that.

[00:23:36] And finally here in late mid to late July now in 2024 the Mariners say we've reached the end of the road and it's again, it's really too bad, but I don't think it was unexpected either. I don't think either of us were totally shocked to see it happen.

[00:23:53] I think a lot of people figured it was going to happen and now it happened. This was the right move. Yeah. Ty France is the only only move they could have made. And as we talked about earlier, Ty France is not the worst hitter on this roster.

[00:24:07] The problem is he's at a more replaceable position without bringing value elsewhere and without money attached to him. So that made it, that made him first of what I would imagine a couple of Domino's that would fall especially between now and when the deadline is.

[00:24:26] So what is this signal now because they call up Jason Vossler to take his spot at first base? Not Tyler Locklear. It's Vossler instead. They could have called up Locklear and they didn't.

[00:24:36] We expected Locklear would get a majority of that bats down the stretch at first base, but instead at first at least it's going to be Vossler. So what does this tell us?

[00:24:48] The first thing I think it tells us is that Tyler Locklear has not been lighting the world on fire down in Tacoma since he got sent down. He has a 97 WRC plus since he got sent down. Not the end of the world.

[00:25:01] That's still over an 800 OPS, but alas still not good enough and not enough of a indication that the Mariners are trying to call Tyler Locklear back up as soon as humanly possible. So that's number one. Number two, they like what Vossler has done in AAA.

[00:25:18] He's got an 884 OPS in AAA despite his lackluster big league performance and are willing to give him a shot. Okay. At this point for what the Mariners have gotten at first base, you're willing to try whatever. But here's what I think is the most likely scenario.

[00:25:32] They don't want to put Tyler Locklear on the big league roster and have him play every single day until they know they're not going to trade him. I think that's the most likely scenario.

[00:25:43] You don't want to bring Tyler Locklear up to the big league roster, plant him at first base, put him in the lineup and have him play each of the next seven games and then trade him without knowing what his future will be. Yeah.

[00:26:00] And I think that makes the most sense. It's easier to trade someone in AAA than it is to trade them off your big league roster. I think that's all right.

[00:26:09] And the fact he has not lit it up in AAA since being option probably has something to do with it too. He hasn't had that many games in Tacoma. We talked about before his debut, he'd only had 10.

[00:26:21] Obviously he was injured for a part of 2023 which is why he didn't get to AAA faster. But it's probably part of it. Paired with yeah. They're probably right.

[00:26:31] They probably don't know exactly what this trade deadline is going to look like and if he is going to get packaged somewhere. Now, if the Mariners still hold on to Tyler Locklear post trade deadline, and I actually think they will, he's going to be the first baseman.

[00:26:47] Now it might not be right on August 1st, but I don't think it'll be that long after assuming he continues to progress in AAA and has some good games in the next week, week and a half, two weeks, whatever it is.

[00:26:59] He'll be on the big league roster because here's the other thing too. By sending Ty France out of town, you are signaling one of two things. Either you are going to go make a big acquisition for a first baseman.

[00:27:12] Maybe that means Vladdy although I'm not really sure he's available. Or you are saying to people our first baseman of the future is Tyler Locklear.

[00:27:20] So after the trade deadline, if they do not have a Vlad Guerrero Jr. on their roster, Tyler Locklear is probably going to be the first baseman. Again, it might not be right at August 1st.

[00:27:30] Maybe it's August 10th, but Tyler Locklear is the first baseman of the future and for good reason. He's got some like his upside is very real. He's got real power. He got Compto Piedolonzo when he was drafted.

[00:27:43] He's tore it up through the minor leagues in his career so far. There's a lot to really like about him, but you're right. Could he be involved in a trade package?

[00:27:51] We don't know, but after like after the deadline ends probably won't be long until we see him in the big leagues. If he was up playing every day from August on, would you be confident enough in the offensive production you'd get from first? Well, he's unproven.

[00:28:07] So in that sense, you don't know for certain what you're getting. But again, I really like what Tyler Locklear has the potential to do. I think I think he'd be better than what Ty France has done this year. So is that a yes or no? Okay, you're right.

[00:28:24] I kind of dodged around that question. Yes, the answer is no because again, by a technicality he is unproven. He has not played in a long-gated like amount of time in the big leagues.

[00:28:35] And I'm with you and I think he had hit a few fun home runs, but ultimately him and Ty France offensively even though Locklear's sample is smaller. It's about the same. If we're just looking at WRC plus it's about the same.

[00:28:47] And I told you that I'm not convinced that Tyler Locklear over these next two months, not talking about 2025 or 2026, just these next two months in his first big league season, I'm not convinced he would put up better offensive production than Ty France would.

[00:29:04] Now the Mariners are willing could be willing to roll the dice and bank that he would. He could as possible offenses down across the league. All he needs to do is essentially get on a hot home run streak and he'll have better production than Ty France. That's it.

[00:29:18] Doesn't need to walk a ton, doesn't need to hit for a high average, just need to crush a few home runs and that slugging percentage will jack all the offensive numbers up enough that they need to.

[00:29:27] However, I still think from the move that was made with Ty France going on waivers and Vostler coming up instead of Locklear is that they are first prioritizing adding a first baseman at the trade deadline. First baseman at the trade deadline first and then Locklear second.

[00:29:50] Yeah, it's possible. But again, there's going to be some position post trade deadline. Well more than one. People are not going to feel the utmost confidence in.

[00:30:01] So somewhere you're going to feel like that because again, I would love to see the Mariners make a bunch of new trades, but they're also not trading for seven new bats, a.k.a. every position except catcher and center field. They're just not going to do that.

[00:30:18] Well, we actually counted earlier. I think nine would be the right number. Nine. Let's see. Well, one, you're not moving to three, four, five, six, seven. Okay, seven. Yeah, you're right. Sorry. Had to go back and recount.

[00:30:36] The numbers get all mixed up, you know, just who just blends together. Well, you know there's nine positions on a baseball field, right? Well, yeah, but you need bench players too. Bench players haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire either.

[00:30:48] Victor Robles has, although he might not be a bench player at this point. No, he's your two hitter. Yeah. Which is you get a kick today out of the lineup comps to that famous San Diego line, famous San Diego lineup from 2021.

[00:31:02] So in case you forgot, let me find this lineup. I'm going to read that. I think this would be good podcast content here. Let me find this lineup. But the Mariners lineup today was in short, not very good. Is that a way you describe it? Not very good.

[00:31:17] Yeah. Seeing that lineup car get released here on Monday might have been the most brutal one of the whole year. So yeah, like here's the only thing like. And now that JP's out and Fulio is out tomorrow, tomorrow's will look worse. Yeah. Yeah, well, okay.

[00:31:35] So here's the last thing before you read this lineup. I'm sure you're right. The Mariners probably want to go find a first baseman. It's not Vladdy. Who is it? I don't think there is one.

[00:31:46] So that means they either want to swing a huge trade for Vladdy, which people would be fired up about or pray for Lamont Wade. Yeah. Yeah, that's true. Lamont Wade's another which have to fight through the platoon. But again, at this point, you can't care about that.

[00:32:01] No, you just got to try. Right. So today's lineup, I thought, compared very well to this. What day was this? This was, I think it was a June or late May Padres game. It was Mariner Padres game. It was May of 2021 in San Diego.

[00:32:16] Kalnick had about two weeks of service time about something like that. Yeah. And he was, yeah, he was, he had this game off. Right. Yeah, he did because I think this was in the middle of his over 39. Mm hmm. So here's the lineup.

[00:32:31] I believe this was a Sunday getaway day lineup. So Justin Dunn was on the mound, but remind you it was 2021. So Justin Dunn was in the lineup hitting in this game. Donnie Walton let off Mitch Hanna, Gerbette second, Kyle Segar,

[00:32:44] bat third, Kyle Lewis fourth, Jose Godoy hit fifth, Sam Haggerty, six Jacob Nottingham, seventh, Jack Mayfield, eighth and Justin Dunn hitting ninth pitching. You want to know, you want to know what's going on. So you want to know the magnitude of that lineup.

[00:33:03] That lineup was such a content worthy lineup was such a hilarious lineup. It got talked about for about five minutes straight on part in my take, like that's the like that's, that's the number one sports podcast in the world that talks about all sports and that

[00:33:24] lineup was so jaw dropping that those guys actually spent about five minutes talking about that lineup and the Mariners as a franchise as a whole saying, wow, you until you look into it, you really don't realize just like the sadness of it.

[00:33:36] And Jake Marsh who I believe pulled it up first of all, he's like, did you guys see the Mariners lineup today when they're talking about that? It's like, all right, let's name how many Mariners, how many players we know in this lineup.

[00:33:46] And I think the only two they knew were Hanna, Gerbette, Segar. So that's what today's lineup comp to in rest assured tomorrow's lineup, which we haven't seen yet while because we're recording here on a Monday. I think it might be it might be worse.

[00:34:03] So yeah, there's going to be no JP. Obviously ties going to be gone. Probably no Julio. No Julio. So if we're going to try to map it out assuming Cal catches bosslers at first polos at second Demos at short Rojas

[00:34:19] is a third and the out place in center Robles Ray Lee and either Glasse or Hannigar. I mean, it's not that different from the lineup today post first inning. It's basically what it is. But we get the graphic. Yeah, we do get the graphic. I'm sure there's good.

[00:34:39] Oh, there will be comments. There will be comments. If anyone else listening to this has a worst lineup in Mariners history, drop a comment and let us know that it is send the reply with the lineup. I'm curious. I forget what it was.

[00:34:53] But my brother nailed it perfectly on the head today. He sent it. He sent it to me and said 2010 ass lineup here. I was like, well, yeah, that sounds about right. And that 2010 team finished with how many wins like 65? Yeah. Could you believe that lineup?

[00:35:11] I just read off that phone 190 games. I know 2021. Yeah. Where where was tie that day? Did he have a day off too? Might have been hurt. We got hit on the wrist. Oh, was it after that Dodgers game when when does it might have been there in SoCal?

[00:35:32] No, no, no. Dustin may hit him at home that Dodgers game. But yeah, that might have landed in 21. No, it was that was in Dodger Stadium. Doug, I'll bet you I'll bet you like my life that I got hurt at home against the Dodgers.

[00:35:44] I'll take your word for it. Yeah. Dustin may it was it was May who hit him pretty hard. I remember because I was at that game. Ty tried to go back out to third base back when he was still playing

[00:35:55] third base the next inning and he was trying to make some throws and he just couldn't do it and they had to they had to take him out of the game. Let me look at the 2010 Mariners lineup really fast just to see

[00:36:07] exactly what that record was because when your brother says, oh, this feels like 2010. Yeah, here we go. The Mariners won 61 games in 2010 61 and 101. Do you like to read off the players at each position? Yeah, who got the most who got the most playing time at each position?

[00:36:25] Oh boy. I'm looking at this in our lab. Okay. Okay. Before Laugh reads this, you need to sit there and ask which lineup is worse? Okay, go ahead. Adam Moore was the catcher and I'm going to be totally honest with you.

[00:36:43] I consider myself and you two of the biggest Mariner fans in the entire world. I sit here and trust tree full honesty say, I do not know who that is. I'm not kidding. I don't either. So that's where we're at.

[00:37:01] Casey Kottman played first one of Ryan Divishes all time favorite Mariners as he famously likes to talk about. Sean Figgins second base, you know, another Mariners legend. What a great contract. Josh Wilson at short, Jose Lopez at third, Michael Saunders

[00:37:17] in left, Goody and center each year on right, Russell Branian, D.H. And oh and Milton Bradley was on that team too. Don't forget. Hey, what was their team OPS? I'm curious. Their team OPS that year was 637. Do we think the 2024 Seattle Mariners? Let's see. I'm actually curious.

[00:37:40] While you look this up of the nine starters, I just read two of them had a WRC plus over 100 each year and Russell Branian. Everybody else actually the third highest before you read this, the third highest WRC plus on this team of the starters was Franklin Gutierrez at 87.

[00:38:02] Oh, sorry. That's that's I mean OPS plus but close enough. The Mariners right now have a 666 team OPS, which is before today of course, but that's actually kind of surprising. I thought it'd be a little closer. No, that 2010 team was really bad.

[00:38:21] Well, which lineup would score more runs? Well, again, that 2010 lineup has two hitters in it that have a WRC plus above 110. I don't think the current Mariners lineup have that today. One. I don't think they have one not with Rayleigh and Robles sample size. I don't know.

[00:38:47] Yeah, this is where we're at people. This is where we're at. All right. I think I think we've got one more storyline for this podcast to talk about before we call this a night. Man, this has been Debbie Downer of a podcast.

[00:39:02] I got to tell you it's giving us some laughs. I'll tell you that but it's been a Debbie Downer of a podcast. Oh, you think it was Debbie Downer before? Wow, let's get to that last storyline. What happens if the Mariners don't make the playoffs?

[00:39:15] I don't know how at this point they could miss the playoffs and absolutely nothing changes. Something's going to change if the Mariners don't make playoffs this year. It's inevitable. Now, there's four different options for what could change. I think we're going to go through the possibilities

[00:39:33] of all of them. And then we'll talk about at the end like what we think is the most likely. The four options are before we dive into them. The front office and coaching staff go. They clean house. There's the option of the front office stays. Coaching staff goes.

[00:39:48] The third option is the coaching staff could stay. The front office could go. Or the last option is everybody stays. Is there one we want to break down? Like, like, there's pieces to each of this. So if we were going to start at the top where they

[00:40:02] truly cleaned house, first off that'd be a pretty bold decision. That'd be a lot. For as poor of a tone as this podcast has been painted in, because for good reason it's been some really, really bad sledding over the last month for the Mariners.

[00:40:18] They're still on pace to be a high 80s wind team. To totally clean house after that probably feels like a lot. And that would also mean the organization believes that they need a brand new regime to help turn the tides and start fresh, which if you

[00:40:36] want to use the 54% method doesn't really line up with what we know are ownership's belief, which is listen, the like ownership's going to tell us that I mean sorry they won't tell us this, but there is probably an internal belief.

[00:40:52] We can't say this for certain, but we are saying probably an internal belief that they're still competitive. They're still getting people out to the ballpark. It's good enough to keep people excited. And because of that they would not totally clean house. Am I right about that? Sure.

[00:41:08] But ownership could also sit there and think oh our average fan, we're down on average 3,000 fans a game this year. Are they? They say that's significant. Yeah. I was curious. I went and looked 33,000 last year, 30,000 this year. An ounce of crowd of 22,000 tonight, that number will go down.

[00:41:26] Could be. It's not an ultra significant number, but it's notable 3,000 people is a lot per game. That's a lot of people. Ultimately, I don't think scenario one will happen. No. I don't think scenario one will happen. You know why I don't think it will happen?

[00:41:43] Because despite everything that's happened on the Big League roster, especially this season with just utter lack of performance across the board, it's not a hot take to say the Mariners have never drafted and developed better than they have under this regime. Never in their franchises history.

[00:41:59] And before you say, Tija, that's pretty bold. First of all, let's just remember what franchise we're talking about. If the Mariners had drafted it and developed well in their entire history, we wouldn't be sitting here and saying they've made the playoffs five times in 47 seasons.

[00:42:12] Am I out of line? No. Because if the Mariners knew how to draft and develop, they would have taken Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer or even Tim Linz to come back in 2006. They would have taken Troy Tulaewitzky in 2005. They would have taken either Anthony Rendon or Francisco Lindore

[00:42:30] in 2011. The list goes on. Like if they knew how to properly evaluate talent, they wouldn't have missed on all those draft picks and instead drafted Brandon Moro, Danny Holtzen and Jeff Clement. Right? And there's a bunch of others. Yeah. So I don't think that's a hot take.

[00:42:50] You could even, don't even have to pay attention to the offense at all. All you need to do is look at the Mariners' rotation and realize no other team in baseball has pulled off the achievement that this regime has done. You could put that rotation alone.

[00:43:03] That puts people in seats. So that's why the decision makers at the top would sit back and say, I think that would be a little irrational despite everything else that is happening. I don't think that would be the best idea. And why?

[00:43:18] Because you could say, oh we can, because there's so much information available now, we could hire someone else who will do just as good of a job. And if you decide to take that risk, you can do it. But here's what you do know.

[00:43:32] You do know this regime can draft and develop. And if there's one thing we do know about this ownership, they don't like paying money to people who are not in the organization, players, executives, coaches, etc. They don't like doing that. So why would they want to pay all

[00:43:48] this money for buyouts and stuff? I know there's some contracts expiring too, but as we've mentioned multiple times, it's not just Jerry that goes, it's not just Scott that goes well, because the new people would want their own people. And for an organization that prides

[00:44:04] itself on drafts, develop and trade, while the trades are hit or miss, the draft and develop's been pretty good, and you would use that as your rationale to keep at very least the front office around it, which leads us, Lyle, to scenario number two, and the one

[00:44:22] I think is most likely. You could sit here and think that Jerry DePoto is doing a good job, but you don't think the coaching staff has got enough out of their players, which to be honest, based on the performance on the field this season,

[00:44:37] if that's your opinion, I think that is a rational take. The front office and the ownership could say these players should be playing a whole lot better than they are currently playing right now, and Jerry can't control how well those players play when he acquires them,

[00:44:56] but the people who are down there on the field coaching, certainly can. I would say that's my rationale for why I think scenario two would be most likely. And I'm not a, I'll say comment section, not listening to you guys. That was my own opinion.

[00:45:12] Not listening to all the fire service comments we get. It's like any time I post anything from a Scott Service Media session these days, it's like, it's like walking through the ring of fire in those comments. Good lord, man. But anyway, yeah,

[00:45:29] I think you're right. Like I think the front office is pretty safe to be honest because here's what I keep circling back to despite Jerry's contract not yet being renewed. One, if you get a new front office regime breaking news people,

[00:45:47] I'm sure most of you know this, but I'm going to say it anyway, a new front office doesn't mean you're getting a new payroll budget. Ownership's not changing. So, I don't know what you expect out of a new front office. Again, Scott Braun said

[00:46:01] this to us way back in the off season and I think he's been right as rain about it. Jerry DeBoto is the right person for the job here in Seattle. There are not a lot of other GMs out there, president of baseball ops out there

[00:46:13] that are given this strict of a budget and say and are told do something with almost no resources and as a result have been able to do something with it. I don't know how many other regimes are out there that are open and available for hire

[00:46:31] that could actually level up what DeBoto's been able to do with essentially hands tied behind his back and here's the second point. If this regime goes do you trust the people that are responsible to make the decision for hiring the new front office

[00:46:47] to do a good job of it? I'm going to be honest, I don't really that because it would fall on the ownership group to do so. I'm going to be honest, I do not have confidence in them to make a hire that would level it up. I don't.

[00:47:03] Here's another point on this side of scenario number two here is that you and I are in agreement the hitting strategy needs a complete system-wide overhaul in the off-season. System-wide. There's no way you could put out offensive production like they have this year and not make drastic changes

[00:47:25] and this isn't just a hiring a brand brown from outside the organization by the way, in case you were curious exact same offensive production before he was fired and after he was fired exact same. So, in case you're wondering about that but also

[00:47:41] it's not just adding one coach complete revamp complete and that plays right into scenario number two because unfortunately that means people were going to lose their jobs because of that if you're making a drastic change like that someone's going to lose their job because of that so that's

[00:47:59] that just feels like the most likely scenario it feels like even if Scott is not the main scapegoat of all of this maybe the players just do need a new voice maybe they need a different communication style Scott's pretty laid back with his players maybe this group needs

[00:48:17] a different tone maybe they need someone a little more aggressive a little more a little less laid back a little more I'd say intense not every player vibes with that but if this group meshes with that more then perhaps that's the voice you need

[00:48:37] which leads to scenario number three which I honestly think is the least likely of all four which is the coaching staff stays and the front office goes I would be pretty shocked if that was what happened like I think it's far in a way of these four scenarios

[00:48:53] the least likely to happen of all of them yeah I agree with you and usually if front offices go the new front office wants their own coaching staff so even if the lame duck coaching staff stayed they would get fired by the new regime

[00:49:09] and then there's scenario number four where everyone stays I don't see a scenario where I'll put it as blank as this of Scott's service and Jerry DePoto both being employed at the end of the after this season if they miss the playoffs I don't see it

[00:49:27] even if you want to find a reason why you believe in them I think there's plenty of reasons to believe in them there are some pretty clear numbers that would work against those guys 100% they will have made the playoffs once in nine seasons as the regime

[00:49:45] if you want to come and say TJ they haven't really been in their contention window allowed to go Jerry's way until you know 2019 when they started their rebuild it's like okay I'd even call it 2021 because when they started okay so the rebuild started in 19

[00:50:03] the contention window opened in 2021 even if you do that that's one playoff appearance in four seasons of any organization that seriously cares about winning like from the top down winning is the number one priority and you're at a contention window is one playoff appearance

[00:50:23] and two total playoff wins in a four year stretch good enough no you wouldn't see the Yankees do that it's true yeah even though the Yankees have had Brian Cashman for a long time but most other organizations would not do that like Heimbloom got last off season

[00:50:45] for not being good enough in the Red Sox and you can go to other organizations that would do the exact same thing so ultimately even if you want to give Jerry a break for the first few years where they had a bunch of vets on the roster

[00:50:59] he didn't have a lot of resources to add he didn't get to do things his way well he's finally gotten to do things his way and if they miss the playoffs it'll be once in four seasons and that's just unacceptable you have to win more

[00:51:13] you have to win more if winning is your number one priority which is unfortunate and then the case for some people Lyle would also be why why scenario four is unlikely that in the front office sense there are plenty of people out there who think that you could

[00:51:31] find somebody who could build with a smaller payroll better than Jerry DePoto like Eric Neander with the Rays for example they win a lot with a payroll half as big as the Mariners I don't know what their payroll is this year

[00:51:45] it's quite a bit smaller than what the Mariners have this season so someone could say well scenario one or scenario three one of those scenarios I would be in for because I feel like you can find a front office that can build

[00:52:01] within the margins of a smaller payroll better than Jerry DePoto has and maybe it's because Jerry DePoto thought it was going to be bigger and the rug got pulled out from under him and he it struggled to adjust because the contracts were already signed but at this point

[00:52:15] fans say oh well doesn't matter to us yeah the Rays are 28th in baseball and payroll just over nine so they're just over $94 million the Mariners as we currently set are 17th $141 million that's a pretty significant gap now there's not many Eric Neander out there I'll say that

[00:52:39] which again you can make the argument of there are people out there that could do more with less like in terms of payroll DePoto's done the follow up to that is do you trust this ownership group to find that person do you trust them to do that

[00:53:01] they're not taking Neander away from the Rays I'd be shocked if they did so if it's not Eric Neander who like is this ownership group baseball savvy enough to find that person that's why you hire a search firm like college football

[00:53:17] Mariners are going to have a college football off season it'll be a wild off season also could you imagine the discourse on twitter if absolutely nothing changed just totally status quo you and I would be pissed they cannot miss the playoffs again they cannot no

[00:53:37] which goes back to the first part of this podcast go add it doesn't have to be Bladdy and Luis Robert go add go get Conforto, go get Lane Thomas, go get Horner, go get Brandon go get all of them

[00:53:51] those four guys aren't going to cost you that much and they're likely available so go make the playoffs do I have to scream it do I have to scream it into the microphone to whoever do I have to scream it to the world if you just get

[00:54:09] into the field you don't know how much your rotation could do they could take you the whole way the Diamondbacks didn't have that much last year in terms of a roster nobody thought the Diamondbacks were going to the World Series

[00:54:21] they did not have the rotation the Mariners had that's for sure the rotation can take you a long way but you have to get into the field and qualify to give them the chance to do that no by the way

[00:54:33] if you qualify you've got to have a league average offense they can put out more runs than this current team is putting up because it's I mean we don't have to say for the million time it's not pretty so whatever happens this

[00:54:46] off season we just hope the one thing happens that really hasn't happened all that much in our life they fired coaches they fired executives they swapped ownership they swap chairmans they've had multiple decision makers change around but what's the one thing loud this franchise is almost

[00:55:02] never done for us is make the playoffs that's it that's what we want we'd rather none of those other things happen and that they just make the playoffs and the reason that's so important we touched on it in the off season touch on

[00:55:14] it again I mentioned they're down 3000 fans a game it might seem like T-Mobile park is full but the attendance is down from last season if you don't make the playoffs again when be shocked if attendance goes down again playoffs is an ultimate boom for attendance but

[00:55:28] not if you're not if you're not making the playoffs it's hard to get people in seats no matter how many fireworks nights you have and you also got to sell people on whatever your new television distribution packages wherever it is how the hell are you gonna sell it

[00:55:42] if it's all you how like you're not gonna sell it if you don't make the playoffs not as well I'll tell you how go sign one so though yeah that would now 100% they're not we will see that they're not going to do that but I that would sell

[00:55:58] the new TV package you think Mariners fans would miss an opportunity to watch one so to play every night despite what the new TV package was on no way nope but nope but I like is the kind again like this is what's frustrating like so when we were

[00:56:14] all star week we were talking to Trevor may about this I know we talked about it in in the vlog that we're going to put out we talked about a little bit on the live stream all that like we we hung out with Trevor for a while

[00:56:24] at all star week and had a really fun conversation like ranging from baseball the content to YouTube all this stuff he's like he's the man we've talked about that and we were talking about the whole Juan Soto thing for a couple minutes and basically coined it as

[00:56:40] if the Mariners could make an effort like he's going to be a tough guy to land like why in the world would he leave New York at this point he doesn't really have a reason to but it's like it's the fact that a guy like that is not

[00:56:56] a risky free agent he's not Xander Bogarts he's not draw up whoever you want one of these guys that got a huge contract who dance be dance be like I mean dance be a little younger but in the sense of like guy in their

[00:57:10] 30s got a huge contract is probably only going to be good for half of it no it's not like that Juan Soto is going to be 26 and is one of the greatest hitters we've ever seen in our lifetimes and that's not a that's not a stretch

[00:57:24] statement either so we talked about it's like it's the fact that Mariners fans for good reason have already accepted the fact of well he's not signing here in fact it's not even going to be it's not even going to be a discussion that's what drives people crazy

[00:57:40] like the fact that like it's not even going to be a thought because he's going to cost quote unquote too much money even if they have to over pay for him it'd be worth it but the fact that it's not even a consideration in people's heads

[00:57:54] because people know how this organization operates you want to talk about how you could sell people on that TV deal you get a player like that in here and you tell people they're going to put him right next to Julio

[00:58:05] and those are your two three hitters for the next decade but they're not going to do that it's got to be someone besides Julio because people know people know what they're getting with Julio they want something new but unless you're trading for

[00:58:20] Vladdy at the deadline which doesn't sound like he's getting moved how is that going to happen how what are you going to sell what are you going to sell if you can't get one of those players and you don't make the playoffs

[00:58:30] what are you what are we selling people on I don't know I don't know that's where we're stuck right now and that's why making the playoffs is of the utmost importance why this deadline seven games from now eight days to eight whole days technically

[00:58:48] from right now when we're recording here on Monday it is of the utmost importance because not making the playoffs is not an option for the future for wanting the team to spend money on players you know it's not they're not going to spend money on players

[00:59:04] if no one is watching the games and no one is going to the games and the only reason people want to watch or go to the games is that the team is good and they have fun players and they're exciting right now not very good

[00:59:14] you don't want to go to the game on Tuesday or Wednesday to be honest I can't blame you can't well we've hit about an hour and I know we went a lot of different ways a lot of different ways on this episode but

[00:59:28] hopefully we resonated with some people and related to people I think we did I think a lot of people are feeling the way we're feeling so hopefully people took something out of this episode and hopefully we can all sit and hope together

[00:59:44] that the next time we record a Wednesday podcast we might as well have a lot of new phases in town that's all we can do is hope we can just hope so with that that will just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast

[00:59:56] you guys know the drill you want to listen to the full form podcast you can do so wherever you get your audio pods make sure to download, leave a 5 star review leave a written review it all really does help us out

[01:00:06] if you're watching on YouTube make sure to like make sure to comment, make sure to subscribe and then follow us on social media on Instagram, on TikTok, on Twitter and on YouTube Shorts at Marine LayerPod that's TJ, I'm Lyle as always we thank you guys for tuning in

[01:00:20] we'll talk to you soon