Episode 162: Have The Mariners Found A Simpler Approach To Hitting?

[00:00:00] [SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to episode number 162 of the Marine Layer Podcast.

[00:00:04] [SPEAKER_00]: We have some musings about the final stretch of the Mariners Pass Road Trip.

[00:00:08] [SPEAKER_00]: We'll mention a couple of comments that Edgar Martinez made this week about the differences in hitting philosophy he's trying to implement.

[00:00:14] [SPEAKER_00]: And we'll take a look at Julio's second half and some of the improvements he's made.

[00:00:19] [SPEAKER_01]: Here's your guys' reminder. Stay on top of all of our stuff.

[00:00:22] [SPEAKER_01]: The best things you guys can do to really help support us is download these podcast episodes.

[00:00:26] [SPEAKER_01]: If you're listening, rate and review 5 stars.

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[00:00:40] [SPEAKER_01]: Let's get it rolling.

[00:00:54] [SPEAKER_00]: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network,

[00:00:59] [SPEAKER_00]: recording on Monday evening, September 9th.

[00:01:02] [SPEAKER_00]: And it was very on brand for the Mariners to wait for week one of the NFL season to mask the fact they won a road series.

[00:01:13] Boom.

[00:01:15] [SPEAKER_02]: Boom.

[00:01:17] [SPEAKER_02]: Boom.

[00:01:18] [SPEAKER_00]: Isn't the funniest thing about that video, by the way, to totally sidetrack is now that there's instead of instead of the meme being AJ flexing his muscle in front,

[00:01:28] [SPEAKER_00]: the new meme is zooming in on the Rizler clapping.

[00:01:33] Yeah.

[00:01:34] [SPEAKER_01]: And and then doing whatever he does at the end, the whole like the oh, like quiets the crowd thing.

[00:01:41] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. Yeah.

[00:01:42] [SPEAKER_00]: Like yeah, his thing like his thing.

[00:01:44] [SPEAKER_00]: Do you think any of our non-gen Z audience knew what we just referenced?

[00:01:49] [SPEAKER_01]: No, but you've given me some inspiration.

[00:01:51] [SPEAKER_01]: I should bring this up on Brock and talk and quiz the rest of the show.

[00:01:53] [SPEAKER_01]: Do you have any idea who the Rizler is?

[00:01:56] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you should.

[00:01:58] [SPEAKER_00]: And so next time you guys do answer the question, Jerk, you should bring you should bring that up.

[00:02:02] [SPEAKER_00]: Submit it as your own question.

[00:02:05] [SPEAKER_00]: Or also you should bring you should grab the sound bite of AJ doing.

[00:02:10] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. Bring the boom.

[00:02:12] [SPEAKER_01]: After either a good Seahawks defensive performance or when the Mariners hit a few home runs in a game.

[00:02:17] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:02:17] [SPEAKER_00]: Or just like whenever you I mean, you have control the soundboard.

[00:02:20] [SPEAKER_00]: You can drop it whenever.

[00:02:21] [SPEAKER_00]: That's true.

[00:02:22] [SPEAKER_01]: Now I might have to do that.

[00:02:23] [SPEAKER_01]: All right.

[00:02:23] [SPEAKER_00]: Like if they're talking about someone being physical, it's like, yeah, guys.

[00:02:27] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. Yeah. Like this.

[00:02:28] [SPEAKER_01]: Like this. Yeah.

[00:02:29] [SPEAKER_01]: Bring the boom.

[00:02:33] [SPEAKER_01]: But who gets a doom?

[00:02:35] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, actually not even the Mariners get a doom after this weekend because yeah, they won their first road series that was not against the White Sox or A's.

[00:02:44] [SPEAKER_01]: That was also three games or more in four months.

[00:02:47] [SPEAKER_00]: It's brilliant.

[00:02:47] [SPEAKER_00]: They played two of their best offensive games of the season and managed to sandwich around their worst one.

[00:02:53] [SPEAKER_00]: It's incredible.

[00:02:54] [SPEAKER_00]: And they managed again, mask it behind just a wall of football.

[00:02:58] [SPEAKER_00]: Mm hmm.

[00:03:00] [SPEAKER_00]: Was that on purpose?

[00:03:02] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's a good question.

[00:03:06] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it'd be fitting.

[00:03:08] [SPEAKER_01]: I'll say that would be fitting because I mean, how much of the Mariners did you watch on Sunday?

[00:03:11] [SPEAKER_01]: I only watched a little bit.

[00:03:13] [SPEAKER_00]: I watched more of Saturday.

[00:03:15] [SPEAKER_00]: I picked the wrong game to watch this weekend.

[00:03:18] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I watched a decent amount of Saturdays, which yeah, like you said, that was a mistake.

[00:03:22] [SPEAKER_01]: The Thanos would say I would have rather watch Sunday, but.

[00:03:26] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we got engulfed in week one of the NFL season just like the rest of the world.

[00:03:30] [SPEAKER_01]: Shocker.

[00:03:31] [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you know, maybe Lyle, the reason the Mariners started playing a little bit better over the last half of this road trip, which it's actually kind of funny to think about this road trip that they finished five and five.

[00:03:41] [SPEAKER_00]: It was probably the worst five game start to a road trip they had or sorry, second worst after the stretch that got Scott Service fired.

[00:03:48] [SPEAKER_00]: But the second worst start to a road stretch this season, the first five games of that road trip where they got walked off three times.

[00:03:55] [SPEAKER_00]: And then the final five games were actually, you know, were good, especially offensively.

[00:04:01] [SPEAKER_00]: So that leads to some some writers, Adam Jude and Daniel Kramer writing some pieces about the Mariners offense today.

[00:04:08] [SPEAKER_00]: And there were some quotes from Edgar Martinez.

[00:04:10] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to quote from Daniel Kramer's article about some of the things the Mariners have been doing different offensively when Edgar Martinez has been leading it.

[00:04:21] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna throw this out there.

[00:04:22] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna get your thoughts on what he says in this.

[00:04:27] [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm not going to try and take this quote out of context too much, but the premise of the article was, you know, the Mariners processes and how, you know,

[00:04:38] [SPEAKER_00]: Edgar's trying to communicate that to his players and how they're trying to simplify their offensive progress.

[00:04:45] [SPEAKER_00]: So here's a quote from Edgar Martinez when talking about sort of the advanced stuff of hitting that we know the Mariners have looked at quite a lot this season,

[00:04:53] [SPEAKER_00]: and especially things that Brandt Brown looked at.

[00:04:56] [SPEAKER_00]: So Edgar said, quote, I don't look at that stuff that much.

[00:04:59] [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, for me, batting average runs scored, RBIs on base percentage.

[00:05:06] [SPEAKER_00]: Those are the stats I look at.

[00:05:08] [SPEAKER_00]: The other ones, exit velocity, launch angle.

[00:05:11] [SPEAKER_00]: They're two examples he uses.

[00:05:12] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't care if you have an exit velocity of 120 miles an hour, but if you have the wrong swing, you're going to hit for a low average and the production is not going to be that great.

[00:05:22] [SPEAKER_00]: So he adds on after that before you react.

[00:05:25] [SPEAKER_00]: Because the game today is so mechanical, there's so much emphasis on mechanics and that sometimes hitters are thinking too much in mechanics like hitting the ball in the air for at a high exit velocity.

[00:05:37] [SPEAKER_00]: Hitters are thinking too much where they should be focusing on a plan and approach and just squaring the ball up.

[00:05:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Not where my hands are all this stuff mechanics.

[00:05:46] [SPEAKER_00]: When you think too much about mechanics, it can be difficult to hit the baseball while.

[00:05:54] [SPEAKER_01]: Edgar Martinez was one of the greatest hitters to ever play this game.

[00:05:57] [SPEAKER_01]: I think he's the greatest DH to ever play this game over Poppy, believe it or not.

[00:06:01] [SPEAKER_01]: He's a Hall of Famer took him way too long to get in and clearly the Mariners offense has turned around in the last two and a half weeks.

[00:06:08] [SPEAKER_01]: That all being said, sad.

[00:06:11] [SPEAKER_01]: Fuck batting average and RBIs.

[00:06:15] [SPEAKER_00]: Here's my counter.

[00:06:17] [SPEAKER_00]: We know the Mariners weren't at least outwardly to the media telling us that when they were looking to evaluate good offensive performance, they were not looking at batting average,

[00:06:31] [SPEAKER_00]: RBI's on base percentage to evaluate their offense.

[00:06:35] [SPEAKER_00]: Now, what exactly were they're doing?

[00:06:37] [SPEAKER_00]: It was a mix of jargon.

[00:06:38] [SPEAKER_00]: People like saying control the zone.

[00:06:40] [SPEAKER_00]: We think of it as just a very detailed, very strategic offensive approach.

[00:06:46] [SPEAKER_00]: Like that's the premise of what Brent Brown was trying to bring in.

[00:06:49] [SPEAKER_00]: You know what happened with that approach while what happened with that approach?

[00:06:54] [SPEAKER_01]: They didn't hit for a high batting average, but they didn't do anything well.

[00:06:58] [SPEAKER_00]: No, they didn't.

[00:06:59] [SPEAKER_00]: So what like so here's the thing.

[00:07:02] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not with this argument here, arguing that batting average and RBI's are good stats.

[00:07:06] [SPEAKER_00]: They are extremely flawed statistics.

[00:07:10] [SPEAKER_00]: But if Edgar's literally his goal here is to try and simplify things to the most basic level possible because when they've tried to complicate things with this offense this year,

[00:07:22] [SPEAKER_00]: it has not worked.

[00:07:23] [SPEAKER_00]: It got two hitting coaches fired and the manager fired is simplest as being more simple in having this experiment for a month and change.

[00:07:34] [SPEAKER_00]: You don't have much to lose by just trying it a different way, trying it Edgar's way and see if something clicks because even if our opinions on batting average and RBI's is correct

[00:07:50] [SPEAKER_00]: and like we point out the clear flaws in using those stats to evaluate offensive performance.

[00:07:56] [SPEAKER_00]: Well, if it doesn't resonate with the team that it doesn't matter what we think because then the team can't hit.

[00:08:01] [SPEAKER_00]: If they did, if it does not compute the way that it's community like in a more advanced, a more advanced teaching of hitting.

[00:08:11] [SPEAKER_00]: If that doesn't compute, then you got to try something else.

[00:08:16] [SPEAKER_00]: And this is clearly something else.

[00:08:20] [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, in all seriousness, it's obviously working and Edgar makes some valid points in what he's saying.

[00:08:26] [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, the guy's an incredibly smart hitter and insanely smart about hitting in Major League Baseball.

[00:08:33] [SPEAKER_01]: He knows way more than I know.

[00:08:35] [SPEAKER_01]: So in all seriousness, yes, there's there's valid points being made to everything he's saying.

[00:08:40] [SPEAKER_01]: However, there's there's bits and commitments we have to stick to on this podcast.

[00:08:45] [SPEAKER_01]: So obviously, I sit here and say, fuck batting average and RBI's because well, once again, like pretty much it's going to reply in the comments because there's going to be some of you there always is.

[00:08:56] [SPEAKER_01]: How is judging a player by RBI's valid in any way, shape or form?

[00:08:59] [SPEAKER_01]: It is totally dependent on who is on base for you.

[00:09:03] [SPEAKER_01]: You know what? You know who doesn't get on base a lot?

[00:09:06] [SPEAKER_01]: The Mariners. They strike out more than anybody in the league by a time.

[00:09:09] [SPEAKER_00]: He did say he was focusing on on base percentage too.

[00:09:12] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's fine.

[00:09:14] [SPEAKER_00]: That's so and Edgar probably can look.

[00:09:16] [SPEAKER_00]: So we understand RBI's a flawed stat, but we can also look at the Mariners stats this year while and notice that Cal Raleigh is legitimately.

[00:09:24] [SPEAKER_00]: Has twice as many RBI's as the next closest Mariner this year.

[00:09:29] [SPEAKER_00]: When you look at that and you say, well, that doesn't quite look right.

[00:09:33] [SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's not good.

[00:09:35] [SPEAKER_00]: How are we going to fix this?

[00:09:37] [SPEAKER_00]: Well, it starts with Lyle just getting on base more.

[00:09:41] [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, you know, it's really funny about all this.

[00:09:45] [SPEAKER_00]: We essentially have teleported back to Jack Z Baseball with that sentence, which is why, which is why I'm here by rejecting all of this.

[00:09:53] [SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to go back to Jack Z Baseball.

[00:09:56] [SPEAKER_01]: Does anybody have fond memories of the Jack Z era?

[00:09:58] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't. You know, there are going to be people in our comments who said they brought in more hitters.

[00:10:05] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he signed them.

[00:10:06] [SPEAKER_01]: He was allowed to go out and sign Robinson Cano to a two hundred and forty million dollar deal of free agency.

[00:10:12] [SPEAKER_01]: Are those type of deals even on the table at this point?

[00:10:15] [SPEAKER_01]: My answer is no.

[00:10:18] [SPEAKER_01]: So if Jerry DePoto has a chance.

[00:10:20] [SPEAKER_00]: He is smiling somewhere reading that quote.

[00:10:22] [SPEAKER_00]: Who, by the way, Edgar started in 15, right?

[00:10:26] [SPEAKER_00]: So he would have been he would have had a little bit of overlap.

[00:10:29] [SPEAKER_00]: Mm hmm. Yeah.

[00:10:31] [SPEAKER_00]: I wonder what I wonder what they talked about batting average RBI's notice.

[00:10:36] [SPEAKER_01]: Edgar didn't say home runs though.

[00:10:38] [SPEAKER_00]: Jack Z was a big home run guy.

[00:10:40] [SPEAKER_01]: Mm hmm. No, it's true.

[00:10:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. I mean, Jack Z got nervous in 2015 and traded for Mark Trumbo.

[00:10:46] [SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, I will say so on.

[00:10:51] [SPEAKER_00]: Let's go back to that first paragraph I read what Edgar is talking about.

[00:10:54] [SPEAKER_00]: So this sentence right here, I don't care if you have an exit velocity of one hundred and twenty miles an hour.

[00:11:00] [SPEAKER_00]: But if you have the wrong swing, you're going to hit for a low average and the production is not going to be that great.

[00:11:05] [SPEAKER_00]: Who is the one player who pops right into my mind on this team when he says that sentence?

[00:11:12] [SPEAKER_01]: I would say that would be the guy playing centerfield.

[00:11:14] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. And is he wrong?

[00:11:18] [SPEAKER_01]: No, and we can get to him in a minute here.

[00:11:20] [SPEAKER_01]: But look, it's working right.

[00:11:22] [SPEAKER_01]: It's working.

[00:11:23] [SPEAKER_01]: The Mariners are also fourth in WRC plus since Edgar's taken over as the hitting coach when they were a bottom eight to ten team in the league all year.

[00:11:30] [SPEAKER_01]: So to say, well, looking at the analytics is dumb.

[00:11:33] [SPEAKER_01]: They were awful in the basic stats.

[00:11:35] [SPEAKER_01]: They were awful in the analytical advanced stats.

[00:11:37] [SPEAKER_01]: So pick your poison.

[00:11:39] [SPEAKER_01]: They were awful at everything.

[00:11:40] [SPEAKER_01]: So look, if the message is getting through to the players more that batting average is important on base is important.

[00:11:48] [SPEAKER_01]: RBI's are important.

[00:11:48] [SPEAKER_01]: Great. Ultimately, we want the team to win games.

[00:11:51] [SPEAKER_01]: That's the real stat that matters the most.

[00:11:53] [SPEAKER_01]: How many wins you have in the win column.

[00:11:55] [SPEAKER_01]: But for anybody that like and now this is no longer an Edgar thing again, because clearly in all seriousness, despite the despite the wording and joking around, I used at the start of this segment.

[00:12:07] [SPEAKER_01]: It's clearly working and it's resonating with the players.

[00:12:10] [SPEAKER_01]: But this is now more a message to the people that will say, this is why analytics is destroying the game.

[00:12:15] [SPEAKER_01]: No, they the Mariners were awful in every category.

[00:12:18] [SPEAKER_01]: It's not an it's not because they were looking at WRC plus on fan graphs.

[00:12:23] [SPEAKER_01]: That's that's not why they weren't hitting.

[00:12:25] [SPEAKER_01]: If Edgar's messages messaging is different and it's resonating with the guys.

[00:12:28] [SPEAKER_01]: Great.

[00:12:29] [SPEAKER_01]: But guess what?

[00:12:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Along with them hitting for more average now in the last two and a half weeks, like you found TJ, this was your stat there.

[00:12:37] [SPEAKER_01]: Like I just said, they're fourth in WRC plus in baseball since Edgar took over as the hitting coach.

[00:12:42] [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, it's across the board.

[00:12:44] [SPEAKER_01]: The analytics say, oh, they've been good, too.

[00:12:46] [SPEAKER_00]: And it's not like they don't use whatever you qualify as analytics if they're not looking at video of that bats or looking at like heat heat maps of pitchers.

[00:12:56] [SPEAKER_00]: It's not like that stuff doesn't exist.

[00:12:58] [SPEAKER_00]: The Mariners did not fire all their analytics stats when the staffers when they fired Scott service.

[00:13:03] [SPEAKER_00]: Right. Those guys still work for the team.

[00:13:06] [SPEAKER_00]: So and it is noted in this article, Edgar says the analytics staff handles that.

[00:13:12] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't.

[00:13:13] [SPEAKER_00]: Would you could also say, well, he's also only the interim hitting coach.

[00:13:16] [SPEAKER_00]: The interim hitting coach doesn't need to have a full handle on the analytics staff as well.

[00:13:21] [SPEAKER_00]: Sure. That's a that's a valid point there.

[00:13:23] [SPEAKER_01]: And you know what? Now now my gears have been grinded about this.

[00:13:26] [SPEAKER_01]: So I'm going to spend 60 seconds on this.

[00:13:28] [SPEAKER_01]: The word 60 seconds, 60 seconds.

[00:13:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Analytics is is the biggest crutch word in all of sports for people who just don't understand what it means.

[00:13:39] [SPEAKER_01]: Like listen to any broadcast of any boomer who doesn't like who fails to comply with understanding analytics and they'll use it as like a word and negative connotation.

[00:13:50] [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I say this. What's that crutch word is what you're looking for.

[00:13:53] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, again, it is.

[00:13:54] [SPEAKER_01]: It is the biggest crutch word in all of sports, not just baseball, but sports when people don't understand how they work and why they're being used.

[00:14:03] [SPEAKER_01]: They use it and and the tone and inflection in their voice paired with how they're phrasing it.

[00:14:09] [SPEAKER_01]: They put it into a negative connotation where if you were to say, OK, here's why WRC plus is a little bit flawed or here's why war is a little bit flawed or in the NFL.

[00:14:16] [SPEAKER_01]: Here's why going for it on fourth down in this situation I think is a little bit flawed.

[00:14:19] [SPEAKER_01]: And you made a valid point and fine, but there are people whether it's on TV or in social media comments or anywhere in between that say, oh, analytics this analytics that no, it's because you don't understand them.

[00:14:31] [SPEAKER_01]: And you're using it as a crutch word.

[00:14:33] [SPEAKER_00]: It's literally just complaining is what it's correct.

[00:14:36] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. So there's my 60 seconds again.

[00:14:38] [SPEAKER_01]: You grinded my gears about this or well the topic grinding my gears about this.

[00:14:41] [SPEAKER_01]: So I want I want to get that off my chest.

[00:14:44] [SPEAKER_01]: The people need to hear this.

[00:14:45] [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for that, Edgar.

[00:14:46] [SPEAKER_00]: We got a good bit from Lyle there.

[00:14:48] [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for that.

[00:14:49] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, thank you, Edgar.

[00:14:51] [SPEAKER_01]: Not only have you somewhat fix this offense in the short term, but you've riled me up.

[00:14:57] [SPEAKER_01]: You got me going again.

[00:15:00] [SPEAKER_01]: Learn, learn analytics people.

[00:15:03] [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, you know, I will say I wasn't expecting to get this fired up in such a lull of Mariners baseball.

[00:15:08] [SPEAKER_01]: It's like, I mean, we can be transparent here, right?

[00:15:12] [SPEAKER_01]: We're in the trust tree with all of our listeners.

[00:15:15] [SPEAKER_01]: We're sitting here these days and we're like, we are running out of things to talk about because they're doing the same.

[00:15:22] [SPEAKER_01]: Like, like how many new storylines are there at this point?

[00:15:25] [SPEAKER_01]: It is nice.

[00:15:25] [SPEAKER_01]: I will say that at time of recording there within three games of that wild card spot and they played a little bit better as of late.

[00:15:33] [SPEAKER_01]: But we're sitting here.

[00:15:34] [SPEAKER_01]: It's like, well, what's new?

[00:15:35] [SPEAKER_01]: What can really be broken down?

[00:15:37] [SPEAKER_01]: Julio, which we're about to do in a minute.

[00:15:39] [SPEAKER_01]: But there's not a lot.

[00:15:41] [SPEAKER_01]: There's really, really not a lot these days.

[00:15:44] [SPEAKER_00]: It's the new hitting coach is what it is.

[00:15:46] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:15:47] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:15:48] [SPEAKER_01]: And hopefully you know what?

[00:15:49] [SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully the Mariners get on a heater here and give people a reason to be excited here in September.

[00:15:54] [SPEAKER_01]: However, my hopes at this point are still pretty low.

[00:15:58] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we still did declare the season over a couple of weeks ago.

[00:16:01] [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, we can't go back on that.

[00:16:03] [SPEAKER_00]: We can't be too faced.

[00:16:05] [SPEAKER_00]: Like we're still only in the second week of September.

[00:16:08] [SPEAKER_00]: We can't turn it around in two weeks.

[00:16:11] [SPEAKER_01]: Like, listen, the people in the organization should honestly be thanking us, players included, because if they make the playoffs, we'll say we gave them Bolton board material.

[00:16:19] [SPEAKER_00]: They can put us the compilation they put together of people declaring them dead like they did.

[00:16:25] [SPEAKER_00]: They did that with Trevor Plouffe when they made the playoffs and in twenty two instead we can be first.

[00:16:30] [SPEAKER_01]: No, I'm down.

[00:16:31] [SPEAKER_01]: They can put us in the video.

[00:16:32] [SPEAKER_01]: They can they can clip us saying on that episode where Scott service got fired, where I start everything off like I need thirty to sixty seconds to say something before we get into the service episode.

[00:16:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Seasons over.

[00:16:43] [SPEAKER_01]: Like, yeah, and I think, you know, yeah, we, yeah, we said it and you were like, I'm doubling down with you.

[00:16:49] [SPEAKER_01]: I agree. We put it in our social media reactions, etc, etc.

[00:16:52] [SPEAKER_01]: You know what?

[00:16:53] [SPEAKER_01]: If we're really giving these guys Bolton board material, let's just give them some more here.

[00:16:57] [SPEAKER_01]: They're getting their shit rocked by the Rangers this weekend.

[00:17:00] [SPEAKER_01]: They got Kumar Rocker making his debut.

[00:17:02] [SPEAKER_01]: Jacob DeGroms coming back.

[00:17:03] [SPEAKER_01]: Max Scherzer is coming back like that's a recipe for disaster.

[00:17:07] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not worried about Scherzer, but DeGrom is going to strike out fifteen in five innings.

[00:17:13] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure that this dude has been waiting to get back on a big league mound for a year and a half now.

[00:17:18] [SPEAKER_00]: You don't think he's going to come out and sit one hundred and one for five innings.

[00:17:22] [SPEAKER_00]: You'll be lying to yourself.

[00:17:25] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:17:25] [SPEAKER_01]: Is he throwing any immaculate innings in there to again Bolton board material here for the guys to get motivated?

[00:17:30] [SPEAKER_00]: I'll say yes.

[00:17:31] [SPEAKER_00]: I'll say one.

[00:17:31] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. All right.

[00:17:33] [SPEAKER_01]: So five innings, fifteen Ks, one immaculate inning.

[00:17:36] [SPEAKER_01]: That seems like it'd be about, I don't know, fifty five pitches.

[00:17:38] [SPEAKER_00]: He won't get hurt in this start.

[00:17:41] [SPEAKER_00]: No, no, we won't.

[00:17:43] [SPEAKER_01]: Actually, if you're going to strike out that many guys, you might throw more than sixty pitches.

[00:17:46] [SPEAKER_00]: But what Kumar Rocker has been striking out, I think he's close to eighteen strikeouts for nine and triple A.

[00:17:52] [SPEAKER_00]: He's doing pretty good.

[00:17:53] [SPEAKER_01]: Kumar Rocker holds a special place in both of our hearts.

[00:17:57] [SPEAKER_01]: So this was long before we ever started the podcast.

[00:17:59] [SPEAKER_01]: But in the year 2020 COVID season, sixty games, Mariners are dead set in the middle of their rebuild.

[00:18:06] [SPEAKER_01]: We thought Kumar Rocker was basically going to be the second coming of Garrett Cole at the time.

[00:18:10] [SPEAKER_01]: We were very big on this campaign that basically went nowhere besides text messages between the two of us and our friends because we didn't have a podcast or much of a platform yet.

[00:18:19] [SPEAKER_01]: We had a campaign that was called Rock Bottom for Rocker.

[00:18:23] [SPEAKER_01]: Rock Bottom for Rocker was at full force in 2020, at least in our heads, where we said, listen, Kyle Lewis can go off every game.

[00:18:30] [SPEAKER_01]: Meanwhile, Justice Sheffield can put together some good starts.

[00:18:33] [SPEAKER_01]: Hey, the guys we thought they were going to matter down the road.

[00:18:36] [SPEAKER_01]: But the team needs to lose every game so they can get Kumar Rocker.

[00:18:39] [SPEAKER_01]: Unfortunately, they did not get him.

[00:18:40] [SPEAKER_00]: No, they did not.

[00:18:41] [SPEAKER_00]: But instead, they got friend of the pod, Emerson Hancock.

[00:18:44] [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, no, I know that's twenty one.

[00:18:45] [SPEAKER_00]: No, that would have been Harry Ford.

[00:18:46] [SPEAKER_00]: Sorry.

[00:18:47] [SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, got my got my years mixed up.

[00:18:49] [SPEAKER_00]: I will note our rock bottom for Rocker campaign flamed out almost as not as fast, but almost as effectively as our tank for Tor campaign a year prior.

[00:19:01] [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, so now we're just filling people in.

[00:19:02] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:19:03] [SPEAKER_01]: In twenty nineteen.

[00:19:04] [SPEAKER_01]: Do we have slight bias because we went to ASU?

[00:19:07] [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe.

[00:19:07] [SPEAKER_01]: And because we covered them and call all these games for him.

[00:19:10] [SPEAKER_01]: But this dude was essentially the slam dunk number one pick in the draft.

[00:19:13] [SPEAKER_01]: So in twenty nineteen, when the Mariners were even more in a rebuild than twenty and the players on the team meant even less to the future of the Mariners on the twenty twenty team.

[00:19:21] [SPEAKER_01]: When you add Jay Bruce and Edwin and back them, Tim Beckham, all those are Narvaez was on that team.

[00:19:30] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it was guys like that.

[00:19:33] [SPEAKER_00]: The bullpen was in.

[00:19:35] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, D was still on the team.

[00:19:36] [SPEAKER_01]: The bullpen was all guys that are like no longer here that year.

[00:19:39] [SPEAKER_01]: We were really big on them tanking so they could get Torque.

[00:19:42] [SPEAKER_01]: But you know what?

[00:19:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe that year we got front of the pot.

[00:19:45] [SPEAKER_00]: Emerson Hancock.

[00:19:46] [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, we did.

[00:19:47] [SPEAKER_01]: And we're happy about it.

[00:19:48] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, because Emerson's the man and honestly Emerson slipped in that draft.

[00:19:52] [SPEAKER_01]: They thought he could go to there even some people that thought he had a chance to go one Mariners got him at six.

[00:19:59] [SPEAKER_00]: So and also Torque has not been that good.

[00:20:01] [SPEAKER_01]: So that's what I was going to finish with there is maybe we actually shouldn't be doing draft evaluation for the Mariners as much as we'd like to say we should.

[00:20:08] [SPEAKER_01]: As much as we might like to talk up our games on here, maybe we shouldn't do draft evaluation for the Mariners because if the Mariners had Kumar Rocker and Spencer Torgelson right now instead of Harry Ford.

[00:20:19] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, yeah, you can be the judge.

[00:20:22] [SPEAKER_00]: I would say the book still I would say the book is still out on on Rocker and Ford.

[00:20:25] [SPEAKER_00]: We'll see and Torque.

[00:20:27] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, Torque hit 30 homers last year.

[00:20:28] [SPEAKER_01]: It's just been a little bit of a struggle for him as a whole.

[00:20:31] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so we'll see on that.

[00:20:33] [SPEAKER_00]: But a little insight into into down years for the Mariners that you got to find a way to make it fun like we try and make this podcast fun.

[00:20:41] [SPEAKER_00]: But what about if the Mariners suck for a whole season?

[00:20:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Well, again, you have to find something to make it more entertaining.

[00:20:47] [SPEAKER_00]: And that something might include digging deep into the draft class and saying, hmm.

[00:20:53] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, what's going to if the Mariners they're not going to be like this.

[00:20:56] [SPEAKER_01]: But if hypothetically the Mariners were atrocious next year, we'd probably have to come on this podcast and start a in the can for Canarella type of campaign.

[00:21:04] [SPEAKER_01]: You know, the kid from Clemson from Clemson?

[00:21:06] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I would say we couldn't level that would be would be gone already.

[00:21:12] [SPEAKER_00]: Which one see again, the A&M kid, Jase.

[00:21:16] [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, yeah, he's Alfie, but he's going to be a junior next year.

[00:21:20] [SPEAKER_00]: So he would not. So like the Mariners, because they couldn't tank this year because they're already right.

[00:21:26] [SPEAKER_00]: They're going to be five hundred this year.

[00:21:27] [SPEAKER_00]: But like if they somehow sucked next year, we would flip it into like into a campaign, like you said, for what is a Camarilla?

[00:21:36] [SPEAKER_01]: Canarella, I think, can a lot. Yeah.

[00:21:39] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. God, trying to think of a few others.

[00:21:40] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure there's some some kids on Oregon State's team that would be that would be worth it, too.

[00:21:44] [SPEAKER_01]: Doyle tweeted out about somebody from Oklahoma at one point.

[00:21:47] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm blanking on the kid's name, but if I find it, I'll.

[00:21:52] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. So if you have a good twenty twenty six draft campaign slogan that we could store away in a bucket just in case we need it, leave it down in the comments section.

[00:21:59] [SPEAKER_00]: We'd appreciate a little little bit of advanced scouting in case of absolute disaster in twenty twenty five.

[00:22:06] [SPEAKER_00]: Correct. Thank you. Yeah.

[00:22:08] [SPEAKER_01]: OK, before we get to Julio, let's take a quick pause.

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[00:22:51] [SPEAKER_01]: So Julio, this is not a complicated topic, but there's some layers to it, although it's mostly positive.

[00:22:59] [SPEAKER_01]: So let's start with the positive.

[00:23:01] [SPEAKER_01]: He has had what's been despite an injury, a very good second half, a good second half.

[00:23:07] [SPEAKER_00]: So since the start of July, he's been a 149 WRC plus he's been about what Julio Rodriguez has been in his career, minus a little bit of power.

[00:23:18] [SPEAKER_00]: But otherwise, offensive production wise across the board.

[00:23:23] [SPEAKER_00]: That's been him. I want to start going back to that Edgar quote and how it ties back to Julio Rodriguez.

[00:23:28] [SPEAKER_00]: This quote where he says, I don't care how hard you hit the ball, but if you have the wrong swing, you're going to hit for low average.

[00:23:33] [SPEAKER_00]: And more most importantly, the production is not going to be that great.

[00:23:38] [SPEAKER_00]: Like that sounds like Julio Rodriguez.

[00:23:41] [SPEAKER_00]: What if he's referencing there?

[00:23:42] [SPEAKER_00]: Almost certainly you could say that with a lot of players on this team.

[00:23:46] [SPEAKER_00]: But if there's any one that represents that quote more than anyone else, it is Julio Rodriguez.

[00:23:54] [SPEAKER_00]: You know what the funny thing is?

[00:23:56] [SPEAKER_00]: So Edgar's been the hitting coach now two weeks, give or take two weeks and change.

[00:24:01] [SPEAKER_01]: I think two and a half. Yeah.

[00:24:03] [SPEAKER_00]: So the month of September has essentially been about half of Edgar's tenure.

[00:24:10] [SPEAKER_00]: So it's only it's only half of the sample size that Julio has had with Edgar Martinez.

[00:24:15] [SPEAKER_00]: But did you know Julio's only striking out 12 percent of the time this month?

[00:24:21] [SPEAKER_01]: Very, very small sample of games.

[00:24:23] [SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, that's that's a good sign.

[00:24:24] [SPEAKER_01]: If you want to look to August two or basically in this whole stretch he's had, he's striking out less.

[00:24:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Since July 4th, you did since the start of July.

[00:24:34] [SPEAKER_01]: I did his numbers since July 4th since our friend Jason Churchill put out this tweet a couple days ago.

[00:24:39] [SPEAKER_01]: So I updated it where he's at 160 WRC plus.

[00:24:42] [SPEAKER_01]: But he's striking out 22 percent of the time since then.

[00:24:45] [SPEAKER_01]: That is that is way down from where it was once upon a time.

[00:24:49] [SPEAKER_00]: He had a couple of months where he was striking out a ton.

[00:24:53] [SPEAKER_00]: Like he struck out a lot in the small sample of July.

[00:24:55] [SPEAKER_00]: He struck out the most in the first month this season, which was about 33 percent.

[00:25:03] [SPEAKER_00]: But the drop down like 23 percent for Julio is low.

[00:25:07] [SPEAKER_00]: But the number that sticks out in the month of September is like that is jarringly low for what Julio Rodriguez has done as a big leaguer.

[00:25:16] [SPEAKER_00]: Like that's just not really who he is.

[00:25:18] [SPEAKER_00]: Like we expect him to be if at best in the low 20s and yet he's at 12 percent.

[00:25:24] [SPEAKER_00]: And then what else did Edgar say in there?

[00:25:26] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't care how hard you hit the ball if you have a bad swing.

[00:25:31] [SPEAKER_00]: Well, notice what Julio Rodriguez is doing in the month of September.

[00:25:36] [SPEAKER_00]: He's actually hitting the ball softer than he usually does in the month of September.

[00:25:40] [SPEAKER_00]: He's not hitting it as hard.

[00:25:42] [SPEAKER_00]: It's almost like he's trying to make more contact and it is making him a more effective.

[00:25:49] [SPEAKER_00]: Let me reel that back.

[00:25:50] [SPEAKER_00]: More effective is the wrong word for his career sense, but more effective this season is correct.

[00:25:56] [SPEAKER_00]: So he's been more effective by just not selling out, not striking out as much, which is great.

[00:26:09] [SPEAKER_01]: This is this has been the best stretch that he's had all season.

[00:26:11] [SPEAKER_01]: That's not really close.

[00:26:13] [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, this is a bit of an elongated stretch that we're looking at now because it's about two months time.

[00:26:17] [SPEAKER_01]: But it does seem like some of these changes he's made with Edgar are making a difference.

[00:26:25] [SPEAKER_01]: Look at look at what he does in August, right?

[00:26:27] [SPEAKER_01]: Seven thirteen OPS 113 WRC plus, which we can get to the bigger picture here in a minute about Julio.

[00:26:34] [SPEAKER_01]: That shouldn't be the standards he's he's held to.

[00:26:37] [SPEAKER_01]: He's not paid all the money he's paid to put up a 113 WRC plus every month.

[00:26:42] [SPEAKER_01]: No, he's supposed to be an anchor.

[00:26:43] [SPEAKER_01]: Numbers like that are not an anchor.

[00:26:45] [SPEAKER_01]: But when you look at where he's been a lot of this season compared to a full month in August or close to it, I guess.

[00:26:52] [SPEAKER_01]: When once he got back from the injury, it's better to step forward and the fact that he's not striking out as much like there is progress here.

[00:27:02] [SPEAKER_00]: So let me use two month examples here that I didn't have up before, but I have right here.

[00:27:07] [SPEAKER_00]: So average exit velocity most people are familiar with over 90 is usually good below 90 is usually where you get into the more light hitting players in baseball.

[00:27:17] [SPEAKER_00]: So Julio Rodriguez had an average exit velocity of over 91 miles an hour and a hard hit rate of over 45 percent in both April and May.

[00:27:26] [SPEAKER_00]: So if you hear those numbers, you would assume pretty productive hitter hitting the ball hard consistently.

[00:27:32] [SPEAKER_00]: But he wasn't productive in those months.

[00:27:35] [SPEAKER_00]: It didn't work for him.

[00:27:36] [SPEAKER_00]: The last two months, Julio Rodriguez has a hard hit rate under 43 percent and an exit velocity under average exit velocity under 90 and has seen better those better results.

[00:27:49] [SPEAKER_00]: So that's a little context to what I said.

[00:27:52] [SPEAKER_00]: Not hitting the ball as consistently hard, but he is finding more production relative to what he has done this season.

[00:27:59] [SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately, this is not the best version of Julio Rodriguez because the best version of Julio Rodriguez needs to use the talent he has,

[00:28:05] [SPEAKER_00]: which is hit the ball harder than 98 percent of players in Major League Baseball.

[00:28:11] [SPEAKER_00]: Not everyone can swing a bat and swing it as fast as Julio does.

[00:28:15] [SPEAKER_00]: So you've got to be able to utilize that.

[00:28:17] [SPEAKER_00]: But if we're guessing what Edgar has brought to Julio is like helping simplify things down, sure.

[00:28:27] [SPEAKER_00]: But I remember you guys talked about this quite a bit on Brock and Salk and Salk brought this number up a few times where it's mentioned out Julio's

[00:28:34] [SPEAKER_00]: swinging more than Javi Baez is.

[00:28:37] [SPEAKER_00]: So you have the combination of him swinging out of his shoes and just twinging too much.

[00:28:42] [SPEAKER_00]: He's brought the swing rate down to last couple of months.

[00:28:45] [SPEAKER_00]: So like there's these things where he's being more selective.

[00:28:48] [SPEAKER_00]: Seems like he's not selling out as much on the results of hitting the ball as hard as he humanly possibly can because he doesn't need to do that.

[00:28:58] [SPEAKER_01]: No, you got natural power and natural hard hit ability regardless of what he does.

[00:29:03] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he doesn't have to swing out of his shoes.

[00:29:07] [SPEAKER_01]: Where do we even go from here?

[00:29:08] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we've outlined some of the problems that have caused him to have a tough year at the plate already.

[00:29:13] [SPEAKER_01]: The fact he hasn't done as much damage on fastballs, the fact that off-speed pitches have killed him this year, especially breaking balls.

[00:29:20] [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how much we've talked about this.

[00:29:23] [SPEAKER_01]: His platoon splits are a little odd this year.

[00:29:25] [SPEAKER_01]: He has not been a guy that struggled with one side of the plate in most of his career.

[00:29:30] [SPEAKER_01]: In fact, you look at his career platoon splits against righties.

[00:29:34] [SPEAKER_01]: His career OPS is 783 against lefties.

[00:29:39] [SPEAKER_01]: It's 827.

[00:29:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Right? Like sorry, against lefties, it's 827.

[00:29:45] [SPEAKER_01]: Righties, it's 783.

[00:29:47] [SPEAKER_01]: This year he is significantly hitting better against lefties than he is against righties.

[00:29:51] [SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know if that has to do with some of the fastballs in that he gets.

[00:29:55] [SPEAKER_01]: But this hasn't been some drastic issue until this year.

[00:30:01] [SPEAKER_00]: Fastballs in, breaking balls away. That's how you get Julio out.

[00:30:03] [SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[00:30:04] [SPEAKER_00]: And that's what a righty can do. Does that make sense?

[00:30:08] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but...

[00:30:09] [SPEAKER_00]: And it's also a problem because he's going to see righties 80% of the time.

[00:30:13] [SPEAKER_01]: But it's not like lefties can't pin him inside.

[00:30:16] [SPEAKER_00]: No, but their breaking balls don't go outside. They go inside.

[00:30:19] [SPEAKER_01]: Right. I'm just saying he has an 805 OPS against lefties this year and a 657 OPS against righties.

[00:30:26] [SPEAKER_01]: Where that's way off from his career norm against righties.

[00:30:29] [SPEAKER_00]: It's not quite the Mitch Garver level of not being able to hit a run on right breaking ball.

[00:30:34] [SPEAKER_00]: But Julio's not been good against sliders and sweepers this year.

[00:30:38] [SPEAKER_00]: So that matches up.

[00:30:39] [SPEAKER_00]: And combine that with just being able to throw him a fastball in off the plate and he'll chase it most of the time.

[00:30:45] [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to get himself out.

[00:30:46] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. Hasn't been good against changeups, hasn't been good against curveballs.

[00:30:50] [SPEAKER_01]: Like basically all off speed pitches and breaking balls have ate him alive this year.

[00:30:55] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and then we come back to the point where he now still has...

[00:30:58] [SPEAKER_00]: Even after an 11 game hit streak his OPS I believe is still under 700.

[00:31:03] [SPEAKER_00]: Mm-hmm.

[00:31:05] [SPEAKER_01]: So there has been improvements and I think Edgar's helping Julio.

[00:31:09] [SPEAKER_01]: And clearly the stretch he's been on over the last two months has been really good.

[00:31:12] [SPEAKER_01]: But again, you just said it since the start of July is 50% above league average as a hitter.

[00:31:17] [SPEAKER_01]: Smaller sample because he missed a lot of time.

[00:31:19] [SPEAKER_01]: But he has been better.

[00:31:21] [SPEAKER_01]: I think how he does the rest of the year is going to be pretty telling.

[00:31:25] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's going to make a big difference too.

[00:31:27] [SPEAKER_00]: And he doesn't need to keep striking out only 12% of the time.

[00:31:30] [SPEAKER_00]: Just want to see the combination of production and power.

[00:31:33] [SPEAKER_00]: He's just not been able to match the two together this year.

[00:31:37] [SPEAKER_00]: The power outage has been one of the most telling things of Julio's season.

[00:31:41] [SPEAKER_00]: And it's not that he doesn't hit the ball hard.

[00:31:43] [SPEAKER_00]: It's that he's just not hitting it hard consistently and he's not hitting it in the air.

[00:31:48] [SPEAKER_00]: That is his big... really his big issue.

[00:31:51] [SPEAKER_00]: And we can go back to the conversation we had with Gary Hill on June or July.

[00:31:55] [SPEAKER_00]: We had him on earlier in this season where he's essentially outlining of Julio's offensive profile.

[00:32:01] [SPEAKER_00]: It's pretty much just the ability that he has to pull the ball in the air.

[00:32:04] [SPEAKER_00]: It's just disappeared this year.

[00:32:06] [SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of that has been when Edgar talks about the game being too mechanical.

[00:32:10] [SPEAKER_00]: Julio's sitting up there thinking a little bit too much and not being able to get around on pitches and pull them in the air.

[00:32:16] [SPEAKER_00]: And if Julio is able to pull six more pitches in the air this year,

[00:32:20] [SPEAKER_00]: how much different does his offensive production look?

[00:32:25] [SPEAKER_00]: Drastically different.

[00:32:26] [SPEAKER_01]: Sure. A few more home runs.

[00:32:29] [SPEAKER_01]: OPS will be higher.

[00:32:30] [SPEAKER_01]: WRC Plus will be higher.

[00:32:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Different narrative.

[00:32:33] [SPEAKER_00]: And different conversation we'll be sitting here having right now.

[00:32:36] [SPEAKER_01]: So speaking of this conversation, all this encompassing.

[00:32:41] [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously most of it's positive, but I still do want to ask this question.

[00:32:46] [SPEAKER_01]: Does it matter?

[00:32:47] [SPEAKER_01]: Like is Julio doing this really a big sign or could it be a big difference maker in this season?

[00:32:55] [SPEAKER_01]: This is where I'm starting to get caught up, but I want to get your take on this.

[00:33:00] [SPEAKER_00]: No.

[00:33:01] [SPEAKER_00]: Not literally.

[00:33:02] [SPEAKER_00]: If he spends the final three weeks of the season on Scorched Earth, we can revisit this conversation.

[00:33:07] [SPEAKER_00]: But this current stretch he's on, no.

[00:33:10] [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, so we're in the same boat then?

[00:33:13] [SPEAKER_00]: Remember what happened last year with his stretch?

[00:33:16] [SPEAKER_00]: When he started his August stretch, he was right about where he's been this season,

[00:33:20] [SPEAKER_00]: where he was essentially a league average hitter up until August of last year.

[00:33:25] [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe slightly above, but still not great.

[00:33:28] [SPEAKER_00]: But then he has his August and all of a sudden you look at his numbers like, wow, looks exactly like 22.

[00:33:34] [SPEAKER_00]: Because the month was that good.

[00:33:35] [SPEAKER_00]: But he hasn't had that month to prop up his stats this year.

[00:33:39] [SPEAKER_00]: And streaky hitters can use hot months to prop up a season.

[00:33:43] [SPEAKER_00]: That's fine.

[00:33:44] [SPEAKER_00]: Like there are people in the Hall of Fame because of that.

[00:33:48] [SPEAKER_00]: But that hasn't been the case this year.

[00:33:50] [SPEAKER_00]: This just hasn't been quite hot enough to say season saved.

[00:33:57] [SPEAKER_00]: Again, the only way Julio saves his season in a statistical perspective is if he goes nuclear the final three weeks of the season and the Mariners make the playoffs.

[00:34:09] [SPEAKER_00]: That's it.

[00:34:10] [SPEAKER_00]: Otherwise, it will be a failure.

[00:34:13] [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, so we're totally in the same boat here.

[00:34:15] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, because this is what I was going to say.

[00:34:17] [SPEAKER_01]: Even when he was going off in August last year, there was correlation to it.

[00:34:21] [SPEAKER_01]: Because what happened when Julio went off in August?

[00:34:23] [SPEAKER_01]: The Mariners got into first place in the AOS.

[00:34:26] [SPEAKER_01]: They were in a playoff spot.

[00:34:28] [SPEAKER_01]: They surged in August.

[00:34:30] [SPEAKER_01]: Then in September, they kind of faltered down the stretch.

[00:34:33] [SPEAKER_01]: What's happened here is even though Julio started to get hot, which has been sandwiched by an injury that he's had to recover from, the team doesn't look all that more inspiring offensively.

[00:34:43] [SPEAKER_01]: OK, yes, by the numbers, they are fourth in the league in WRC plus over the last two weeks.

[00:34:48] [SPEAKER_01]: That's great.

[00:34:49] [SPEAKER_01]: But let's reiterate.

[00:34:50] [SPEAKER_01]: They just won their first three game road series that wasn't against the White Sox or A's in four months when they beat the Cardinals in two or three this weekend.

[00:34:58] [SPEAKER_01]: And while they're three games back in the final wild card spot and they're creeping closer to Houston, what, they're at four and a half now, it still feels like a pretty big uphill climb.

[00:35:10] And.

[00:35:11] [SPEAKER_01]: Unless they really get really hot here in the final three weeks, I still have a hard time believing we're going to be looking up at the end of the season and see this team in a playoff spot.

[00:35:20] [SPEAKER_01]: And like you said, that's the whole difference.

[00:35:23] [SPEAKER_01]: If Julio gets so hot here in September that he essentially saves the season and wills this team into the playoffs with his bat.

[00:35:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's a very, very different story.

[00:35:33] [SPEAKER_01]: But if he continues to, you know, put together some good games here and put together some good games there and he ups his season OPS a little bit, he gets it slightly over 700 whatever.

[00:35:43] [SPEAKER_01]: And they still miss the playoffs because it was too little too late.

[00:35:47] [SPEAKER_01]: Rest of the offense still wasn't hitting enough.

[00:35:49] [SPEAKER_01]: He didn't do enough himself.

[00:35:52] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like it's it's it doesn't move the needle that much for me.

[00:35:56] [SPEAKER_00]: But also you can't blame Julio for the Mariners having bullpen struggles.

[00:36:01] [SPEAKER_00]: You can't blame Julio for some of the other lineup struggles and some of the roster shuffling.

[00:36:05] [SPEAKER_00]: That's not his fault.

[00:36:08] [SPEAKER_00]: No Rodriguez, while Julio Rodriguez is and I will say this is the number one reason the Mariners have failed the season.

[00:36:15] [SPEAKER_00]: That doesn't mean while he's heated up since the beginning of July and the Mariners still haven't hasn't won.

[00:36:21] [SPEAKER_00]: It's not because he's playing, for example, like a selfish brand of baseball that doesn't make a team around it better.

[00:36:27] [SPEAKER_00]: That's like that's not the case.

[00:36:29] [SPEAKER_00]: He's doing that in spite of other players around him not performing.

[00:36:34] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but also Logan Gilbert leads baseball in whip and the Mariners got shut out in one of his best starts of the year on Saturday.

[00:36:42] [SPEAKER_01]: And Logan Gilbert, while pitcher wins and losses are the dumbest stat in all sports, Logan Gilbert's like seven and eleven.

[00:36:48] [SPEAKER_00]: So do you think Logan's called Felix and asked him about that 2010 season yet?

[00:36:53] [SPEAKER_01]: I hope Felix would pick up his call.

[00:36:55] [SPEAKER_01]: I'll say that.

[00:36:56] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, actually, Logan's in Florida in the offseason.

[00:36:59] [SPEAKER_01]: They should just visit, visit each other.

[00:37:02] [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe they have.

[00:37:04] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, maybe they have.

[00:37:04] [SPEAKER_01]: And we just don't know.

[00:37:06] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like this is the point about Julio.

[00:37:08] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like that's not what we're saying.

[00:37:10] [SPEAKER_01]: If I hope that didn't come across that way.

[00:37:12] [SPEAKER_01]: Nobody's saying he's playing selfish baseball or anything like that.

[00:37:14] [SPEAKER_01]: But ultimately, what this comes down to is especially if the Mariners don't make the playoffs at the end of the day, Julio Rodriguez still has an OPS below 700.

[00:37:26] [SPEAKER_01]: He has barely been a league average hitter this year.

[00:37:28] [SPEAKER_01]: He's finally started to get the WRC plus up over 100 in the last couple of weeks.

[00:37:34] [SPEAKER_01]: So what all this says is if he wants to be called a superstar, him having a hot few weeks at the end of the year now isn't changing what my view on him is because my view on him is and it sounds like you're in the same boat is he has still had more bad months than good months in the last two seasons that he's played.

[00:37:52] [SPEAKER_01]: And if he wants to be called a superstar, I'm not even talking the judge Ohtani range because they're so far and away at the top right now.

[00:37:58] [SPEAKER_01]: If you want to be in the next year, if you want to be with the Gunners and the Bobby, yeah, Gunner Henderson's and the Bobby wits and throw whoever else you want to throw into that mix.

[00:38:07] [SPEAKER_00]: I think Bobby is ascended above that.

[00:38:10] [SPEAKER_00]: But anyway, besides that's besides the point.

[00:38:13] [SPEAKER_01]: But Bobby's going to have a 10 win season.

[00:38:15] [SPEAKER_01]: That's what we all thought Julio could do this year.

[00:38:18] [SPEAKER_00]: And doesn't a 10 win season put you a judge in Soto?

[00:38:21] [SPEAKER_01]: All right, fine.

[00:38:22] [SPEAKER_01]: I said judge in.

[00:38:23] [SPEAKER_01]: I said judge Ohtani.

[00:38:24] [SPEAKER_01]: Fine. Fine.

[00:38:24] [SPEAKER_01]: You can put Bobby and Soto.

[00:38:26] [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, but like that's nitpicking.

[00:38:27] [SPEAKER_00]: I get like, no, I get what you're saying.

[00:38:30] [SPEAKER_00]: He is going to need to have a full season of superstar play.

[00:38:35] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. And that's the same thing we said in June.

[00:38:37] [SPEAKER_00]: Was it July 1st?

[00:38:38] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, July 1st.

[00:38:39] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. Same thing.

[00:38:41] [SPEAKER_00]: Same argument that like that does not change full season.

[00:38:45] [SPEAKER_00]: A hot stretch would be great.

[00:38:47] [SPEAKER_00]: You'd be lauded for it.

[00:38:48] [SPEAKER_00]: But like that would not change our revised expectations for Julio going into 2025.

[00:38:55] [SPEAKER_00]: Like that doesn't change.

[00:38:57] [SPEAKER_00]: Like you and I could do Julio's 2025 preview right now if we wanted to.

[00:39:00] [SPEAKER_00]: Because we know what we're going to say.

[00:39:01] [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be the same thing when we talk about it in February.

[00:39:04] [SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[00:39:04] [SPEAKER_01]: He has had more bad months in the last two years than he has had good months.

[00:39:09] [SPEAKER_01]: And if he wants to look at be called a superstar in 25 again, if you want to be with the OK, fine.

[00:39:14] [SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't have to be Bobby Witt and those guys.

[00:39:17] [SPEAKER_01]: But again, Gunnar and Devers and whoever else you want to put into that bucket.

[00:39:23] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Austin Reilly when he's on top of his game.

[00:39:27] [SPEAKER_00]: Corey Seager.

[00:39:28] [SPEAKER_01]: Corey Seager. Right.

[00:39:29] [SPEAKER_01]: Like that group.

[00:39:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Mookie is probably in the Judge Otani range too.

[00:39:33] [SPEAKER_01]: So he's ahead.

[00:39:34] [SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, like that second group of superstars.

[00:39:38] [SPEAKER_01]: Not quite the elite of elites but still like guys that are in the MVP race every year.

[00:39:43] [SPEAKER_01]: If you want to be called a superstar, you've got to do it start to finish.

[00:39:46] [SPEAKER_01]: Not saying you can't have a bad two weeks because everybody goes through cold stretches in a season.

[00:39:50] [SPEAKER_01]: But for the most part, over the course of 162, you have to keep the consistent offensive play up.

[00:39:58] [SPEAKER_01]: And over the last two years, that hasn't been the case.

[00:40:00] [SPEAKER_00]: And unfortunately, the other top prospect who came up with Julio at the same exact time is Bobby Witt Jr.

[00:40:07] [SPEAKER_00]: Look what he's doing.

[00:40:08] [SPEAKER_00]: Like he might be worth 11 wins this year.

[00:40:10] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. Like you just you look at that and you see man one like you just see the duality of what baseball can do to a player.

[00:40:18] [SPEAKER_00]: One player in his third season going through the biggest struggle he's had as a professional and the other one peaking and playing at the 100th percentile of what he can do.

[00:40:29] [SPEAKER_01]: And the guy that finished second to Julio and Ricky the year voting that year is the best catcher in baseball.

[00:40:33] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[00:40:34] [SPEAKER_00]: Adly. Yep.

[00:40:37] [SPEAKER_01]: So this is where he's at.

[00:40:39] [SPEAKER_00]: It's just maybe Edgar with his batting average in RBI is the guy to unlock that.

[00:40:44] [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe.

[00:40:44] [SPEAKER_01]: And again, if Julio actually goes scorched earth in the final three weeks, Mariners get into the playoffs and I'm not saying this is going to happen.

[00:40:53] [SPEAKER_01]: But I don't think a single person around this time last year exactly a year ago would have said, oh, the Diamondbacks are going to the World Series.

[00:41:00] [SPEAKER_01]: But if Julio finds some way to just get the Mariners into the dance and then he continues it into the postseason and the starting pitching carries them.

[00:41:07] [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we have a different conversation in the offseason.

[00:41:09] [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe.

[00:41:10] [SPEAKER_01]: But for right now, it's just it's not going to happen.

[00:41:13] [SPEAKER_01]: This is this is who he is at this point.

[00:41:15] [SPEAKER_01]: It's great that he's getting hot, but the narrative on him is not going to change until he does it over a full year.

[00:41:21] [SPEAKER_00]: No, it will not.

[00:41:22] [SPEAKER_00]: And the only difference is I don't think the Mariners are making the field with 84 wins like the Diamondbacks did.

[00:41:27] [SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[00:41:27] [SPEAKER_00]: Probably nice.

[00:41:29] [SPEAKER_00]: I would feel a lot better about their chances if 84 was was getting in.

[00:41:32] [SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[00:41:33] [SPEAKER_01]: Also, speaking of bulletin board material from this podcast, maybe Julio is using us as bulletin board material to not just the team, but him.

[00:41:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Churchill put out the stats since July 4th.

[00:41:44] [SPEAKER_01]: This is what he's done.

[00:41:44] [SPEAKER_01]: You said since July, this is what he's done, a.k.a.

[00:41:47] [SPEAKER_01]: The exact point in time we did our is Julio is Julio a superstar conversation paired with Julio and Jared Kellick have been the exact same offensive player over the last year and a half.

[00:41:57] [SPEAKER_00]: And what happened to Kellick since then?

[00:42:00] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's really been struggling.

[00:42:01] [SPEAKER_00]: Unfortunately, notice how we haven't talked about Jared Kellick since July 1st.

[00:42:06] [SPEAKER_01]: It's unfortunate.

[00:42:07] [SPEAKER_01]: I still root for the guy to be great.

[00:42:09] [SPEAKER_00]: I know.

[00:42:10] [SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's funny.

[00:42:11] [SPEAKER_00]: One of my favorite baseball YouTubers, Foolish Baseball, who hopefully one day we can get on this podcast.

[00:42:17] [SPEAKER_00]: He did you see the tweet he put out?

[00:42:19] [SPEAKER_00]: Mm hmm.

[00:42:20] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, the Braves are the National League Mariners.

[00:42:22] [SPEAKER_00]: I got a chuckle because maybe Jared Kellick just brings it with him wherever he goes.

[00:42:27] [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe.

[00:42:29] [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe.

[00:42:31] [SPEAKER_01]: What else we got for this podcast?

[00:42:33] [SPEAKER_01]: I know this one's going to be a little bit shorter.

[00:42:34] [SPEAKER_01]: I guess the last thing we have here before we wrap up is to take a quick minute to talk about Luis Castillo.

[00:42:40] [SPEAKER_01]: Now, as of time of recording, we don't have all the information.

[00:42:43] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm guessing everybody's going to know a little bit more about his status by the time this episode airs on Wednesday.

[00:42:49] [SPEAKER_01]: But he left the game on Sunday.

[00:42:52] [SPEAKER_01]: Mariners PR called it hamstring strain.

[00:42:55] [SPEAKER_01]: We don't know the severity of it, but we're waiting to find out if he's going to actually miss time or not.

[00:43:01] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he could just be fine.

[00:43:02] [SPEAKER_00]: We don't know how much like the hamstring could heal in two days, depending on the severity of it.

[00:43:07] [SPEAKER_00]: They weren't willing to give details.

[00:43:10] [SPEAKER_00]: The Mariners do have a pretty convenient replacement if Castillo needs to go on the injured list.

[00:43:16] [SPEAKER_00]: I still think if it was just a mild strain, I'm sure he could come back by the end of the season and be healthy for a hypothetical Mariners playoff series if they needed to needed to play it.

[00:43:28] [SPEAKER_00]: But otherwise, I mean, Emerson Hancock is just rolling right along.

[00:43:31] [SPEAKER_00]: It's not like even though he has passed his innings count from last year by 21 innings, he's not being load managed at all.

[00:43:38] [SPEAKER_00]: He's had five consecutive starts of six innings.

[00:43:41] [SPEAKER_00]: It's been one of his best stretches in terms of volume and production in the minor leagues, especially at AAA, which is remarkably effective.

[00:43:51] [SPEAKER_00]: We talked about it on our live stream on Sunday.

[00:43:53] [SPEAKER_00]: I was trying to throw out just the fun idea of if they needed to load manage Emerson, could they bring up a Logan Evans or Brandon Garcia to piggyback him if they felt like one of those guys were ready?

[00:44:05] [SPEAKER_00]: But I'm looking at it.

[00:44:06] [SPEAKER_00]: It just the more I dove into it, it's just less and less likely.

[00:44:10] [SPEAKER_00]: Logan's 23 innings past his innings count.

[00:44:13] [SPEAKER_00]: Brandon Garcia is get this 60.

[00:44:17] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, about 60 innings past his innings limit from last year.

[00:44:20] [SPEAKER_00]: So Brandon Garcia won't be coming up.

[00:44:22] [SPEAKER_00]: Both those guys have pitched really well down there in AA.

[00:44:25] [SPEAKER_00]: I think that would be fun.

[00:44:27] [SPEAKER_01]: Both those guys will probably be in Seattle at the end of the year to get some awards because they've been phenomenal.

[00:44:32] [SPEAKER_01]: One of those guys is almost undoubtedly going to be minor league pitcher of the year.

[00:44:35] [SPEAKER_01]: I guess you could throw Morales into that bucket, too.

[00:44:37] [SPEAKER_01]: I would still guess it's going to be either Logan Evans or Brandon Garcia.

[00:44:42] [SPEAKER_01]: But I would assume both of those guys will receive some award in the final weekend so they may be present in Seattle.

[00:44:50] [SPEAKER_01]: I just don't think they're going to be pitching on the roster this year because like you said, past their innings limit.

[00:44:55] [SPEAKER_01]: If you look at their start by start, their pitch counts are going down.

[00:44:58] [SPEAKER_01]: They're starting to load manage them paired with the double a season ends much sooner than the triple a season does right now.

[00:45:04] [SPEAKER_01]: Logan Evans and Brandon Garcia are each slated to have one more start.

[00:45:08] [SPEAKER_01]: Now Arkansas is going to be in the playoffs, but assuming they just keep their rotation because they're not going to pitch him on two, three days rest or anything.

[00:45:15] [SPEAKER_01]: It still may be their last start, especially if Arkansas loses the series.

[00:45:18] [SPEAKER_00]: And who are you taking off the 40 man for those guys is the right is another question, which I don't think that's something Jerry DePoto wants to really worry about right now when he's trying to focus on the Mariners making the playoffs.

[00:45:30] [SPEAKER_00]: I will say with this Luis injury would kind of just brush past this because we've taken this Mariners rotation for granted this year.

[00:45:39] [SPEAKER_00]: It essentially puts to an end this remarkable stretch of health.

[00:45:44] [SPEAKER_00]: This rotation has had this year, which again will probably not happen again in the next with this group at least.

[00:45:51] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what next five years it's unlikely that they will have this many guys make this many consecutive starts without any health blemishes, especially no knock on wood arm injuries with any of them.

[00:46:02] [SPEAKER_00]: Even though they throw the most innings in baseball, it doesn't matter.

[00:46:06] [SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't matter that they are the only team in baseball that has four 161 inning starters this year.

[00:46:12] [SPEAKER_00]: The only rotation kind of take that for granted, and I don't think we will truly it will set in until Luis Cascio does not if he doesn't start his next game.

[00:46:23] [SPEAKER_01]: Right. And the one guy that hasn't thrown that many innings has been arguably as dominant as any of them in Brian Wu.

[00:46:28] [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, it's like Luis is only going to make three more starts the rest of the year.

[00:46:34] [SPEAKER_01]: If I counted this outright, he is only slated to make three more starts in the regular season.

[00:46:39] [SPEAKER_01]: So obviously, it'd be great to have him for those three starts if he can't pitch.

[00:46:43] [SPEAKER_01]: You hope Emerson Hancock obviously can can step in admirably and keep the team in the game and maybe spend a couple of great starts in his own right.

[00:46:52] [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, like you said, he's been he's been pretty good in AAA.

[00:46:55] [SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, it's just it's unlikely you would see Evans or Garcia, especially because again, like the AAA season goes almost as long as the big league season where it wouldn't change that much in Emerson Hancock's routine for what he'd be doing on a daily basis, because he was going to pitch late into the season anyway.

[00:47:14] [SPEAKER_01]: And if you really want to manage his innings, well, then you could have Jonathan Diaz make one start.

[00:47:20] [SPEAKER_01]: He's already up on the roster right now.

[00:47:22] [SPEAKER_01]: So if you had to manage it and fill all three of those Louis start days, if he's going to miss the final three starts of his season, you can make it work with Hancock and Diaz as close as it would be to see the other two up.

[00:47:34] [SPEAKER_00]: It stinks though.

[00:47:35] [SPEAKER_00]: If the Mariners get hot like I really I hope Emerson's got a little bit in the tank again.

[00:47:40] [SPEAKER_00]: He's been pitching along AAA.

[00:47:42] [SPEAKER_00]: These would be some big starts to be making down the stretch.

[00:47:44] [SPEAKER_00]: We have all the faith in the world and Emerson Hancock.

[00:47:46] [SPEAKER_00]: He's our guy, but some big starts every game matters for the Mariners.

[00:47:50] [SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, if you're keeping track, remember we made the twenty seven and ten over the rest of the season declaration?

[00:47:56] [SPEAKER_00]: Well, they've reached the ten.

[00:47:59] [SPEAKER_01]: No, so they're just going to win their final eighteen in a row or whatever.

[00:48:02] [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, they'd need to win all of their all their remaining games to get to that point.

[00:48:07] [SPEAKER_00]: But that's beside the fact because even despite our declaration we made, the Mariners are somehow still in the playoff race.

[00:48:12] [SPEAKER_00]: If they can find a way to make up three games in the next three weeks in the wild card race like those to be some big games Emerson starting.

[00:48:19] [SPEAKER_00]: So it's what you want like a safe forever.

[00:48:23] [SPEAKER_00]: He's like he's like, yeah, give me the ball.

[00:48:25] [SPEAKER_00]: Let's go.

[00:48:27] [SPEAKER_01]: It's what you want.

[00:48:27] [SPEAKER_00]: You want to be in those situations, but it would be nice to have Luis Castillo.

[00:48:32] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, both can be true.

[00:48:34] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:48:34] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:48:36] [SPEAKER_01]: OK, I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Lair podcast.

[00:48:40] [SPEAKER_01]: You guys know the drill.

[00:48:41] [SPEAKER_01]: You want to listen to the full form podcast.

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[00:49:03] [SPEAKER_01]: That's TJ.

[00:49:04] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Lyle.

[00:49:05] [SPEAKER_01]: As always, we thank you guys for tuning in.

[00:49:07] [SPEAKER_01]: Talk to you soon.