Episode 190: Wrapping Up The Latest Winter Meetings Rumors

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 190 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We'll wrap up everything from the winter meetings, including the latest Mariners rumors concerning Luis Castillo, Carlos Santana, Christian Walker, and how the number three overall pick could potentially impact what the Mariners do this offseason.

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[00:00:51] Let's get it rolling.

[00:01:06] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network.

[00:01:11] Recording on Thursday evening, December 12th, post-winter meetings. We got back yesterday morning on Wednesday.

[00:01:19] I'm exhausted. As you can probably hear in my voice, it was quite the two-day adventure down in Dallas.

[00:01:26] But I'm recovering, which is good.

[00:01:28] But I want to give us at least one failing remark when it comes to the winter meetings, Lyle.

[00:01:35] Somehow, we sat down and recorded a podcast episode at winter meetings and didn't talk about Kyle Tucker.

[00:01:41] How did we miss that?

[00:01:43] Because we're already under the assumption he's a mariner, which he is. That's why we missed it.

[00:01:47] When the trade goes down, we're going to sit here, parade, scream, jump around, everything, the whole nine yards.

[00:01:55] But when you see Kyle Tucker's on the trade block, he's a mariner.

[00:01:59] One of the greatest running bits in podcast history, it happened on Monday.

[00:02:03] Literally a dream.

[00:02:05] We're at winter meetings around all these people.

[00:02:08] The move you have been championing.

[00:02:12] Well, that's tough.

[00:02:13] All winter and all spring and all summer.

[00:02:17] To happen to these Seattle Mariners, even when he wasn't available, even though he's in the same division as your team, becomes publicly available at the winter meetings.

[00:02:28] It's crazy how the stars aligned, dog.

[00:02:31] It is crazy.

[00:02:32] Why wasn't he there?

[00:02:33] He should have been at winter meetings.

[00:02:34] If he was going to be available, he's like, all right, I'm going to go shop myself.

[00:02:40] What have I been saying for over a year or about a year?

[00:02:43] Nobody wanted to believe me.

[00:02:44] Astros aren't going to pay him.

[00:02:45] Can't afford him.

[00:02:46] Going to have to get something back for him.

[00:02:48] And they put him on the market.

[00:02:50] They put him on the market.

[00:02:53] And guess what?

[00:02:54] We got two more cracks at this thing.

[00:02:56] Because if somehow the Mariners don't trade for him this winter, which again, he's a mariner, they'll just sign him next winter.

[00:03:03] Inevitable, foregone conclusion.

[00:03:06] Kyle Tucker's a mariner.

[00:03:06] So, again, just for all the people out there, even if for whatever reason the baseball gods align things this offseason where he goes somewhere else,

[00:03:15] they're just delaying the inevitable.

[00:03:18] Hold on, hold on.

[00:03:18] You said they're going to sign him next offseason.

[00:03:22] Did I hear you right?

[00:03:24] They are.

[00:03:25] Really?

[00:03:26] Huh.

[00:03:27] Is the budget going up?

[00:03:28] For Kyle Tucker, it is.

[00:03:31] Are you contributing to the budget?

[00:03:34] Yes.

[00:03:35] In fact, the Mariners need to start doing what the Braves do.

[00:03:39] And for every player they sign, 1% of their salary goes to the Seattle Mariners Foundation.

[00:03:42] And then they can afford to sign more players.

[00:03:45] A.K.A.

[00:03:45] Lau Goldstein's bank account.

[00:03:46] So you can then turn it around, gain some interest, and then you throw it on as a signing bonus.

[00:03:55] How about just the fact that the length of physical pain I'm willing to go for this man to play in the Pacific Northwest?

[00:04:01] That should be enough of a sales pitch to the guy.

[00:04:04] Well, once he gets to Seattle, you should explain to him what you did for him and then get his live reaction.

[00:04:10] Oh, that'd be great.

[00:04:11] We are absolutely doing that.

[00:04:12] But when, not if, he's a Mariners.

[00:04:15] It could be this offseason or next offseason.

[00:04:17] Pick your poison baseball gods.

[00:04:20] So now that we're done with the winter meetings, we can, I would say, wrap it up a little bit before we get into some of the rumors that came out at the end as we were heading back up here to Seattle.

[00:04:30] What was your biggest takeaway of the number of hours after we left?

[00:04:37] That Luis Castillo's on the table?

[00:04:39] Well, yes.

[00:04:40] I meant from the winter meetings, dog.

[00:04:43] We have the rumors already on the docket.

[00:04:47] Oh, you mean, well, you said hours after we left.

[00:04:50] I thought you were asking about rumors.

[00:04:52] Well, yeah.

[00:04:52] I mean, it could be anything.

[00:04:55] So are you asking me about what my takeaways were from us being at the winter meetings, period?

[00:04:59] Is that what you're asking?

[00:05:00] Yes.

[00:05:00] I just thought it was super cool that the whole baseball world's under the same roof.

[00:05:04] Even during All-Star Week where everybody's in the same city and location, people are walking around and moving around and doing different things.

[00:05:11] The winter meetings, everybody is in one hotel and they're all in one spot.

[00:05:15] You run into all these people.

[00:05:16] And it's awesome.

[00:05:17] You get to connect with all these people.

[00:05:19] You get to have conversations with all these people.

[00:05:21] We did a little bit of content.

[00:05:22] Not as much as we do in some other places because the winter meetings, for the most part, is more people are walking around and have meetings to get to.

[00:05:31] And they're kind of always going in different directions.

[00:05:34] So there wasn't as much time to stop as many people as we usually would and do all this content.

[00:05:38] Not that we did none.

[00:05:39] We've got a vlog coming out.

[00:05:40] We did a few short-form things for social.

[00:05:45] But just all the connections we got to make and fun baseball conversations we got to have with all these different people, whether it was other media people or other people from the Mariners who we hadn't really gotten to meet from the front office.

[00:05:56] And not really meeting Jerry and Justin, but just some of the other people that work in the front office, along with some scouts, with some agents, a lot of people, a lot of different people.

[00:06:05] Oh, we talked to Jorge Polanco when he was there because he was at the meetings.

[00:06:08] So that was cool.

[00:06:10] Do I think he's going to end up back in Seattle?

[00:06:12] No.

[00:06:12] But as I mentioned time after time on this pod, I think the guy is awesome.

[00:06:17] He was awesome to the two of us.

[00:06:18] He was always really cool when we talked to him at the field.

[00:06:21] So I wish nothing, nothing but the best for that guy.

[00:06:24] And to just see him for a couple minutes was cool because he's working out in Dallas.

[00:06:28] Obviously, he's having meetings with teams.

[00:06:29] So he was sitting at one of the tables at the restaurants with a handful of people.

[00:06:33] We saw him from afar.

[00:06:34] And once he got up, we talked to him for a minute.

[00:06:36] And yeah, it was good to see him.

[00:06:38] So all in all, it's me saying we talked to all these different people from all these different walks of baseball life.

[00:06:45] That was really cool.

[00:06:46] You explained that pretty well.

[00:06:48] And I would say anyone who is listening to this podcast and thinks about working in baseball,

[00:06:53] a great place to start would be the winter meetings.

[00:06:55] Yeah, I mean, you'll never know who you're going to bump into.

[00:06:57] And you can even just be, I don't know, kind of an...

[00:07:01] I mean this in the nicest way possible.

[00:07:03] You show up and you become kind of a nuisance.

[00:07:06] And you just start shaking hands and forcing your way into conversations to try and talk to people

[00:07:10] and network a little bit and find your end.

[00:07:13] That's how a lot of these people in this industry got in there.

[00:07:15] And that's kind of what we're doing.

[00:07:18] I think given our platform, Lyle, I would say we operated a little less of a nuisance strategy.

[00:07:25] I don't think you were a nuisance.

[00:07:27] No, we were not.

[00:07:27] I mean, but I mean if you have absolutely nothing, that's more of how you would operate.

[00:07:33] You're like, I'm just trying to get in however many possible.

[00:07:36] Sorry, I don't mean to be rude here, but I just want to introduce myself.

[00:07:39] Like that would be the place to do it because they're hiring people.

[00:07:43] There's agents, there's scouts, whatever you're trying to learn or whatever you're trying to get into.

[00:07:48] That is the place to do that because there's not many other opportunities where you can in person

[00:07:53] sort of physically force your way in like that.

[00:07:56] So it's a great opportunity.

[00:07:59] Instead of just repeating everything you said, which is correct,

[00:08:03] I will note it was kind of a quiet winter meetings, especially from a Mariner's perspective.

[00:08:07] We have plenty of rumors to talk about, but I'll say even league-wide.

[00:08:11] Was expecting more buzz from the start of winter meetings to the end, and we just didn't get it.

[00:08:19] We had Juan Soto on Sunday night, and then we had a couple of big contracts,

[00:08:24] Max Freed especially, churn out.

[00:08:27] Garrett Crochet get traded after we left.

[00:08:30] But otherwise, the buzz at this winter meetings was noted by,

[00:08:33] we were talking to Divish late on Tuesday night about this,

[00:08:37] and a couple other people.

[00:08:38] That was just kind of strange how it just didn't feel like anything was happening.

[00:08:42] I don't know, maybe Lyle, it's the social media age we're in.

[00:08:45] Everyone is in constant contact no matter what.

[00:08:47] So they don't need winter meetings to get together and trade people.

[00:08:51] Because you can trade anyone whenever you want.

[00:08:53] And it's just kind of different from what it used to be.

[00:08:56] But I hope this means they'll just pick it up after winter meetings,

[00:08:59] since they maybe got the parameters of a lot of trades done.

[00:09:02] It does feel like over the last few years, less and less happens at the meetings.

[00:09:06] A few years ago, more would go down because everybody's in the same spot.

[00:09:10] Now it feels like, not that nothing happens, but a little less than what it used to be.

[00:09:16] Yeah.

[00:09:16] So let's get into some of these rumors.

[00:09:19] And what was actually floating out there with the Mariners.

[00:09:22] It's kind of funny because you and I were talking about this before we hit recording,

[00:09:26] how nothing usually comes out from the Mariners when it comes to

[00:09:30] what they're thinking about from a trade perspective.

[00:09:33] These Luis Castillo rumors are probably the most we've ever heard out of Mariners camp

[00:09:38] about a potential hypothetical trade.

[00:09:40] It's kind of crazy, isn't it?

[00:09:43] Yeah, because usually when things leak from the Mariners' side, the deal has happened.

[00:09:47] It just goes down.

[00:09:48] We get bombed with a pass and tweet, and that's that.

[00:09:52] Everybody just all of a sudden looks at their phone one minute, and there's the acquisition.

[00:09:56] The Mariners aren't usually one of those teams like the Mets or some others

[00:09:59] where leaks are happening, and things are progressing, and it's getting close,

[00:10:02] and it's on the 10-yard line, and the deal is almost in place,

[00:10:07] and they're in the works.

[00:10:09] They're finalizing a contract, and then it gets done.

[00:10:11] With the Mariners, it's usually, boom, here's what just happened.

[00:10:15] And all of a sudden, these Luis Castillo rumors and leaks are everywhere.

[00:10:18] I'm going to guess that's more from Boston's side.

[00:10:21] They seem to leak more out than the Mariners usually do, but they're out there.

[00:10:25] And I think it's easier for beat writers like Divish and Daniel Kramer,

[00:10:30] once they get some of the win from the Boston side of things,

[00:10:32] they can just go up to Jerry DiPoto and say, is this true?

[00:10:35] And Jerry either says yes or no.

[00:10:38] There's no sort of word salad remark about that.

[00:10:42] It's a yes or no question.

[00:10:43] There is some of the stuff that dropped here on Thursday afternoon

[00:10:47] that I thought was a couple very interesting points,

[00:10:49] which could pertain to a move happening here soon with Luis Castillo.

[00:10:54] It does feel like even though there have been people on both sides saying

[00:11:03] there is no Luis Castillo deal imminent,

[00:11:05] there are just so many rumors swirling around where it's very hard to think

[00:11:14] that something won't happen.

[00:11:15] Because it sounds like there's a lot of interest in Luis Castillo.

[00:11:17] And I'll explain, I'd say one point that Daniel Kramer noted in his article Thursday

[00:11:22] that dropped about an hour before we started recording.

[00:11:26] Jerry DiPoto reportedly stayed behind in Dallas when everyone else left on Wednesday night.

[00:11:31] Jerry stayed behind in their suite in the Hilton, Anatole.

[00:11:36] And I would imagine he just wanted to stay so he could have a working environment for that.

[00:11:41] I think that is a somewhat interesting point.

[00:11:44] And Kramer had one very interesting sort of quote line from, I assume, a source

[00:11:55] when it came to their Castillo conversations that it sounds like

[00:12:01] when other teams have called about Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Brian Wu,

[00:12:07] the Mariners have hung up the phone.

[00:12:08] And that's happened this offseason where the Red Sox reportedly wanted for Tristan Casas,

[00:12:14] they wanted Bryce Miller or Brian Wu, and the Mariners said no.

[00:12:17] But when it comes to Luis Castillo, they're not hanging up the phone at all.

[00:12:21] And that once Max Fried and Garrett Crochet, those two transactions went through,

[00:12:26] the interest in Luis Castillo picked up.

[00:12:29] And so that's the latest information we have on Castillo.

[00:12:35] It just seems like the Red Sox and Mariners are at a stalemate right now, though.

[00:12:41] Could the Orioles get involved here if they can't work out a deal?

[00:12:45] Boston-Seattle?

[00:12:46] I hope so.

[00:12:47] The Orioles feel like a team that fits.

[00:12:51] They haven't been in any rumors at all.

[00:12:54] Mm-mm.

[00:12:55] It's primarily been the Cubs and the Red Sox.

[00:12:59] And it makes sense.

[00:13:01] The Cubs, from the Cubs standpoint, now Kyle Tucker's going to be a Mariner,

[00:13:05] but if Kyle Tucker ends up actually being a Cub,

[00:13:08] I think it kind of opens up things on the Cubs side of things for Castillo.

[00:13:15] Right?

[00:13:15] Because the Mariners want, it sounds like the Mariners want big league talent back for Luis Castillo.

[00:13:22] And there's a situation here where the Cubs have both Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger on the roster at the same time.

[00:13:27] Now, if you go trade for Kyle Tucker, your need for Cody Bellinger is a lot less.

[00:13:33] Would they trade Bellinger and Nico Horner?

[00:13:36] Because it feels like Horner is where the Mariners are trying to target in terms of what the Cubs have to offer.

[00:13:42] Because they need infield.

[00:13:43] They need an infield.

[00:13:44] You know what I really wonder?

[00:13:46] How much can Cody Bellinger still play first?

[00:13:48] Oh, I'm sure he can do it.

[00:13:50] He's a great athlete.

[00:13:51] I'm sure he can do it.

[00:13:52] But isn't he way more valuable in the outfield?

[00:13:54] He's a great outfield defender.

[00:13:55] He is, but the Mariners don't really need outfield defense, do they?

[00:14:00] Unless Cody's going to just take Randy's spot in the outfield and Randy DHs.

[00:14:04] You could do that.

[00:14:05] I guess Luke Rayleigh could move to first more full-time and only play outfield in a pinch,

[00:14:09] and then you put Cody in the outfield that way.

[00:14:11] That would solve first base.

[00:14:14] And second base.

[00:14:17] Oh, or you're saying if they trade for Horner and Bellinger.

[00:14:20] Right.

[00:14:20] But you would probably need to send more to the Cubs than just Luis Castillo.

[00:14:24] This is where you'd send a prospect to.

[00:14:26] Right.

[00:14:27] But that would make your team better.

[00:14:29] Both those guys are controllable.

[00:14:31] You'd have them for multiple years.

[00:14:32] Then all of a sudden, all you need is third base.

[00:14:34] So how does that work out money-wise?

[00:14:36] It's 23 for Castillo.

[00:14:38] It's 12 for Horner and 24 for Bellinger.

[00:14:40] Have those numbers right?

[00:14:42] Yeah.

[00:14:43] That makes it seem like...

[00:14:45] So that's 36 on the Cubs side and 23 on the Mariners side.

[00:14:47] So it's 13 million surplus for the Cubs.

[00:14:51] So then the Mariners would have $2 million.

[00:14:54] Now, for a better prospect, the Mariners could ask the Cubs to send cash.

[00:14:58] And that would help.

[00:15:00] Yeah, but if that deal goes down like that, the Mariners' off-season budget goes from $15 million to $2 million.

[00:15:06] Then they have nothing left to spend, right?

[00:15:08] Well, yeah, but then you've also sort of solved two positions.

[00:15:12] Right.

[00:15:12] And they already said they're going to trade for a third baseman.

[00:15:16] And a trade, I would assume, would try and offset some cash and not really increase the budget all that much.

[00:15:23] Mm-hmm.

[00:15:26] I'm just trying to think about how this would all sort out.

[00:15:29] Because I was trying to think about where does Hanager's money go?

[00:15:32] Could you send him somewhere with prospects like we've talked about to open up some cash?

[00:15:35] And maybe if you trade for Bellinger and Horner to play first and second,

[00:15:39] you could trade Hanager somewhere to open up some money to get somebody to play third base.

[00:15:43] For a price range, it's a little more reasonable.

[00:15:47] We'll talk about the number three pick, I think, at the end of this podcast.

[00:15:50] But I'm going to sort of tease it right here when we talk about trading a prospect away with Mitch Hanager

[00:15:55] just to relieve some salary.

[00:15:58] You are now going to have a great opportunity to replace prospects with a total blue-chip guy come in July.

[00:16:06] Not like a maybe blue-chip guy.

[00:16:08] Like a legit blue-chip guy with a number three overall pick.

[00:16:11] Mm-hmm.

[00:16:11] So that should leave you less hesitant to trade top-line prospects if that's what it costs.

[00:16:18] Right.

[00:16:18] Yeah.

[00:16:19] There's no doubt.

[00:16:21] Whoever you get at that pick, again, we can save the rest of it.

[00:16:23] But whoever you get at that pick is going to be a top-20 prospect in all of baseball, which is pretty crazy.

[00:16:27] And for the Mariners, that would be right at the top of their system behind Colt Emerson.

[00:16:32] Anyway.

[00:16:33] I think the strangest thing here with the Castillo sweepstakes, and we can pivot back to the Red Sox here for a second.

[00:16:40] I know this is probably how some trades eventually get worked out in any sort of sense,

[00:16:48] and even could have happened with the original Luis Castillo trade from the Reds to the Mariners.

[00:16:54] But the way the Red Sox and the Mariners have approached this Luis Castillo idea and talked from both sides

[00:17:01] is that each side thinks its package is worth way more than the other side's offering.

[00:17:06] That the Mariners think, well, if we're trading for Tristan Casas, it's going to cost way more.

[00:17:12] Luis Castillo is going to cost way more than just Tristan Casas.

[00:17:16] We need more than just that bat.

[00:17:18] And then on the Boston side, their idea of a fair trade package is Bryce Miller or Brian

[00:17:24] Woo for Tristan Casas, not Luis Castillo.

[00:17:28] And both these fan bases seem to be wrapped up in fights on social media about it, too.

[00:17:33] Do you feel like the Mariners fan base is, though?

[00:17:35] I don't think so.

[00:17:37] I think the Red Sox fans are being a little more unrealistic than Em's fans are.

[00:17:41] I don't think you can find anyone on Em's Twitter that's looking at Tristan Casas for Luis

[00:17:46] Castillo and say, no.

[00:17:49] Yeah, that's right.

[00:17:51] However, there's people on Red Sox Twitter that are losing their mind.

[00:17:54] There's that one guy who says it would be an abomination if that trade happened.

[00:17:58] By the way, this is the same guy who last offseason put out real tweets saying,

[00:18:02] Logan Gilbert and Cutter Crawford are the same player.

[00:18:07] No, they're not.

[00:18:08] They're not.

[00:18:09] No.

[00:18:12] Now, I think when you have opinions on each side that tell each other they're wrong,

[00:18:22] I think that means it's a good trade package.

[00:18:25] Yeah.

[00:18:26] That usually does seem to do it.

[00:18:28] You have one side.

[00:18:29] It's the same idea like where we look in our comments.

[00:18:32] If we have an equal amount of people arguing that either side of a trade we propose is absurd

[00:18:39] and crazy, that means it's a good trade proposal.

[00:18:43] Like the Westbrook thing.

[00:18:45] Right.

[00:18:45] Yeah, I would do Luis Castillo for Tristan Casas.

[00:18:48] Mariners need a first baseman.

[00:18:49] Casas has four years of control.

[00:18:51] He has 40 home run power.

[00:18:53] Yeah, I would do that.

[00:18:54] I just wouldn't do it for Bryce Miller or Brian Wu.

[00:18:56] Brian Wu's upside, as we continue to talk about, is sky high.

[00:19:00] And Bryce Miller was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the second half of last season.

[00:19:05] When it comes to trading Luis Castillo, I think there's also a couple of really big dominoes

[00:19:09] that still need to fall to sort out the starting pitching market and increase Luis's value,

[00:19:17] given he's still available and the Mariners are still interested in trading him.

[00:19:21] Number one is Corbin Burns, who I think is going to sign soon.

[00:19:24] Number two is Roki Sasaki.

[00:19:28] Once those two sign, Luis Castillo becomes one of the more coveted guys on the free agent market.

[00:19:34] And once you get to that point where Castillo is still available

[00:19:39] and he costs about the same as Luis Severino and Nathan Evaldi,

[00:19:45] then he becomes a very valued piece to a lot of teams.

[00:19:49] And it could be more than just the Cubs and Red Sox.

[00:19:52] It could be more teams in baseball that Luis Castillo will have a lot of interest to.

[00:19:57] And that sort of matches up with some of the reporting we've seen out of the end of winter meetings

[00:20:02] that as soon as Freed signed and Crochet was traded,

[00:20:06] the Mariners phone lines got lit up a little bit more for Luis Castillo.

[00:20:10] Where someone thinks, oh crap, running out of quality starting pitchers, let me check on this.

[00:20:17] And honestly, I think just Corbin Burns signing could really free it up to the max.

[00:20:22] Because I don't think either the Red Sox or Orioles are signing Roki Sasaki.

[00:20:25] And I don't know if either of those franchises really believe they're going to sign Roki Sasaki.

[00:20:29] Because he is probably going to sign somewhere on the West Coast.

[00:20:32] Is it the Mariners? I don't know. Seems unlikely, but not impossible.

[00:20:36] So if he's going to sign with the Padres or the Dodgers,

[00:20:39] and you're the Red Sox and the Orioles,

[00:20:41] after Corbin Burns signs, if it's not with one of your two clubs,

[00:20:45] that's when things feel like they could really pick up.

[00:20:48] And I think the Mariners are doing the smart thing in that regard.

[00:20:50] They're playing the waiting game a bit.

[00:20:51] They know that trading Luis Castillo when guys are still on the market versus off the market

[00:20:56] will change the value.

[00:20:57] Because if teams really need starting pitching, which Boston very clearly feels like it does,

[00:21:03] you will get more desperate once those guys are off the board.

[00:21:05] And they may be willing to part with things that they weren't willing to part with in December,

[00:21:10] but they are in January.

[00:21:12] All right, let's take a quick pause.

[00:21:14] We're going to talk to you guys about our friends over at Pogaccia's Pub 85.

[00:21:17] December's rolling around.

[00:21:18] We're about halfway through the month.

[00:21:20] College football playoff is right around the corner.

[00:21:23] NFL season is toward the tail end.

[00:21:26] You know, people are playing for divisions, for wild card spots.

[00:21:29] The NFL season is really, really cooking and heating up.

[00:21:31] So all these sports going on, not to even mention college basketball, the NBA, the NHL.

[00:21:36] You want to get out and watch some games with your friends?

[00:21:38] Head over there.

[00:21:39] It's the best place to do it.

[00:21:40] There's more than 20 TVs in that place.

[00:21:42] There's great food.

[00:21:43] There's games like pool and darts.

[00:21:45] And if you head over during happy hour, drink specials are as good as you can get.

[00:21:49] It is $3 and $4 drinks from Monday through Friday, 2 to 6 p.m.

[00:21:53] Those are the happy hours, long happy hours with awesome drink specials.

[00:21:56] Again, 2 to 6 p.m. on Monday through Friday with $3 and $4 drinks.

[00:22:00] All that and a great time with your friends is over at Pogaccia's Pub 85 in Kirkland.

[00:22:06] Now the risk you play by waiting.

[00:22:08] Yes, the price may go up for Luis Castillo.

[00:22:10] And if you get Major League Bats back like Tristan Casas, it'll all be worth it.

[00:22:15] And something like I'm about to mention won't really matter as much.

[00:22:18] But if you wait too long and someone that you're trying to quote unquote save up for by dumping Luis Castillo's contract off to another team like Christian Walker,

[00:22:29] signs somewhere else, then you're just left empty handed.

[00:22:32] You have one less spot in the rotation to fill and you don't have a first baseman to sign.

[00:22:37] It sounded like the Mariners checked in on Christian Walker this week.

[00:22:41] They probably talked to his agent, saw what the bidding price was and said,

[00:22:46] Oh, what?

[00:22:51] And obviously based on the reporting, couldn't afford him.

[00:22:55] So the price was too high.

[00:22:57] So that's why you got it.

[00:22:59] That's why you got to think like there needs to be modest urgency, I would say,

[00:23:04] because the rest of the free agent market is not going to wait for Luis Castillo.

[00:23:09] Christian Walker is independent of Castillo.

[00:23:12] Right.

[00:23:13] Yeah, that part's all true.

[00:23:15] What do you think the Mariners found out his AAV was?

[00:23:17] Oh, $20 million?

[00:23:18] Well, we can't do that.

[00:23:20] 18.

[00:23:21] Even if it's 18, they can't afford it.

[00:23:23] Well, no, they can't afford it.

[00:23:24] They're choosing not to.

[00:23:25] Right.

[00:23:27] Yeah.

[00:23:28] So they tried.

[00:23:31] They, they, they, listen, I, this is where we are in terms of the Mariners off season.

[00:23:36] They did at least try to contact him and they didn't do what they probably did to Juan Soto

[00:23:42] and probably didn't even bother calling Scott Boris.

[00:23:45] Great.

[00:23:46] Yeah.

[00:23:47] Fun, right?

[00:23:49] $15 million is such a joke of a budget.

[00:23:52] I know.

[00:23:52] I know we've beaten this into the ground, but.

[00:23:54] Yeah.

[00:23:55] It's a, it's a, it's a, it's a joke.

[00:23:57] Yeah.

[00:23:58] Um, and, and also as Divish said, circling back to all this Luis Castillo stuff, he's

[00:24:04] right in the sense that the fact they're being forced to do this because they won't just sign

[00:24:09] the bats to play first, second and third is just sad.

[00:24:13] Like this rotation is so good.

[00:24:16] And now that they don't have reinforcements coming in the minors, but when you have this

[00:24:19] rotation together, the fact they're not doing everything possible to capitalize on it.

[00:24:25] It's such an eye roll.

[00:24:26] It's so as Divish put it, it's so disheartening for fans.

[00:24:29] How we might put it is it's pathetic.

[00:24:32] And they worked so hard to put this rotation together.

[00:24:35] It took four seasons essentially to put this entire rotation together.

[00:24:40] You added Logan Gilbert first in 2021 as some wide-eyed rookie.

[00:24:46] Then you did the same thing the year after with George Kirby.

[00:24:48] And then you added Luis Castillo at the trade deadline.

[00:24:51] And then you put Bryce and Brian into the rotation in 2023 until they took that next step

[00:24:56] forward this year to make the rotation what it is.

[00:24:59] Because of 2023, Bryce and Brian showed up in 2024.

[00:25:03] It's not we're not having the same argument.

[00:25:05] We're having a good, not great rotation.

[00:25:08] But no, four years later, they have their best rotation in franchise history.

[00:25:12] And they very well might only get one total year of it because of a self-imposed budget.

[00:25:18] And that's depressing.

[00:25:20] Most teams, most franchises don't ever have rotations like this.

[00:25:25] And having to field calls on a Luis Castillo because you're cheap sucks.

[00:25:33] Yeah.

[00:25:35] But what else are we supposed to say?

[00:25:36] Chris Larson needs to publicly speak.

[00:25:38] All right, all right.

[00:25:38] I'm not going to go down that road.

[00:25:40] But whatever.

[00:25:41] I don't know what else we can say at this point.

[00:25:43] Right.

[00:25:43] Other than that.

[00:25:44] Well, sure.

[00:25:45] Yeah.

[00:25:45] But we know he's not.

[00:25:47] Yeah.

[00:25:48] I'm just saying.

[00:25:48] Anyway.

[00:25:49] All right.

[00:25:49] Let's get back on topic.

[00:25:52] Christian Walker, look, if you want to sign him, there's a couple ways you could do this.

[00:25:57] And it involves Luis Castillo.

[00:25:58] It all ties together.

[00:26:01] To sign Christian Walker, you're going to have to free up money.

[00:26:03] In addition with the Mariners not wanting to trade the young arms, the reason Castillo makes the most sense in a trade is because it frees up money with this budget.

[00:26:10] And if you get his contract off the books, it frees you up to do more in free agency or other trades, etc.

[00:26:17] So, let's say Luis gets traded to the Cubs for Nico Horner.

[00:26:22] Let's use that example.

[00:26:24] You've got your second baseman.

[00:26:26] You've then got money freed up because if Chicago takes on his contract, you add $12 million in budget because Nico Horner will make $12 million.

[00:26:35] You've got $27 million in your budget.

[00:26:38] You could use most of that on Christian Walker if he's going to be an $18 to $20 million AAV player.

[00:26:44] Then you've got your first baseman and second baseman figured out.

[00:26:47] All you need is third base and Mariners fans and the Mariners front office are probably looking at their offseason saying, we feel pretty good about this.

[00:26:54] Even with Luis Castillo gone, you have Logan Evans, Brandon Garcia, Michael Morales, Emerson Hancock, depending on what role you want to use him in, to replace Castillo.

[00:27:05] And I don't know if it's going to be the same level of production in year one, but you have reinforcements.

[00:27:11] Or the other route you look at is the Orioles with Kobe Mayo.

[00:27:16] You say, let's trade Luis Castillo to Baltimore.

[00:27:19] You get Kobe Mayo back, hypothetically.

[00:27:21] That fills your third base spot for the next six years as long as he pans out.

[00:27:25] Best case scenario.

[00:27:27] What's that?

[00:27:27] I said best case scenario.

[00:27:29] He pulls it for six years.

[00:27:30] Sure.

[00:27:31] But let's just say he does.

[00:27:33] Then you freed up if Baltimore takes on most of that money.

[00:27:37] Let's call it all $24 million of Castillo salary.

[00:27:40] Now, now you've got 36, no, more than $36 million.

[00:27:45] Jeez, I can't do math.

[00:27:46] You have $41 million to work with in, no, 39.

[00:27:50] Jeez, third time's the charm.

[00:27:51] Arizona State math.

[00:27:52] You would have $39 million to work with in your budget.

[00:27:55] It's like Christian Walker costs $18 to $20 million AAV, right?

[00:28:01] Well, if you sign Christian Walker to play first, he costs $20 million a year.

[00:28:05] You have $19 million a year left to spend.

[00:28:08] Why can't you go sign Hasan Kim?

[00:28:09] Why can't you go sign Gleyber Torres?

[00:28:11] Then all of a sudden, your infield come opening day could be Christian Walker at first.

[00:28:17] Hasan Kim at second.

[00:28:19] Well, he's going to be out, but okay.

[00:28:20] By May.

[00:28:22] Hasan Kim at second.

[00:28:23] Christian Walker at first.

[00:28:24] Kobe Mayo at third.

[00:28:26] That's a pretty good offseason.

[00:28:27] So there are ways to make it happen, but this is why the Castillo trade makes the most sense.

[00:28:31] There are ways.

[00:28:34] Unfortunately, man, it's like 1% chance.

[00:28:40] Because that would probably require them trading Castillo within the next two weeks.

[00:28:45] If they are proactive.

[00:28:48] They do this before Christmas.

[00:28:49] I think for everything the Mariners want to do, they're going to need a trade Castillo before Christmas.

[00:28:55] Right.

[00:28:56] I don't know how long Christian Walker is going to take to sign, but I can't imagine he's going to be waiting around until like mid-January to sign.

[00:29:02] Seems like he's got interest.

[00:29:04] If his price is already high, that means there are teams interested out there that are probably getting close to that price.

[00:29:10] That are not named the Mariners.

[00:29:13] Right.

[00:29:14] But let's say the Mariners do trade him.

[00:29:18] Don't either of those options look pretty good?

[00:29:21] They do.

[00:29:24] Who do you think fills that rotation spot if he gets traded?

[00:29:27] Is it Logan?

[00:29:28] Is it Emerson?

[00:29:29] Is it Brandon Garcia?

[00:29:31] It's probably Emerson Hancock, I would say.

[00:29:33] It's going to be Emerson Hancock until they deem Logan Evans or Brandon Garcia ready.

[00:29:38] In that case, they could go to...

[00:29:41] Well, I will say they are still going to try and get Roki Sasaki.

[00:29:46] Whether or not Luis Castillo is in the rotation, they are going to make their pitch.

[00:29:50] Jerry used his Shohei line this week with Roki and said they've been preparing for years.

[00:29:56] And I got a chuckle when people on Mariners Twitter went back and found Jerry's exact same line when talking about Shohei Otani.

[00:30:03] Fun memories.

[00:30:04] Yeah.

[00:30:05] But...

[00:30:06] Do you think in that scenario...

[00:30:08] Let's talk Roki here for a second.

[00:30:10] Let's say they do it.

[00:30:11] Let's say they make the move.

[00:30:12] Let's say they land him.

[00:30:13] They win the sweepstakes.

[00:30:15] They do say Roki would benefit from a six-man rotation.

[00:30:18] So let's say you trade Castillo.

[00:30:20] And you sign Roki.

[00:30:22] Would it actually still benefit the Mariners to work the six-man rotation?

[00:30:26] And I'm not even saying for the sake of Roki Sasaki and just getting acclimated to big league baseball.

[00:30:31] But say Logan Evans and Brandon Garcia are ready to go this year.

[00:30:34] And they start to get innings.

[00:30:37] They could work them into the majors by not putting a crazy innings workload on them.

[00:30:42] And they get acclimated too.

[00:30:44] Could actually work in a lot of ways.

[00:30:46] I actually...

[00:30:49] I would say no.

[00:30:51] I would say you only do a six-man rotation if Roki needs it.

[00:30:54] In which case, I think it's convenient and helpful to Brandon and Logan.

[00:30:58] But forcing a six-man rotation not based on need, I don't really think is the strategy.

[00:31:03] No, I'm not saying it's forced.

[00:31:04] I'm saying I think that is what Roki Sasaki wants.

[00:31:07] It sounds like that's a priority of his.

[00:31:09] Yes.

[00:31:10] Then yes.

[00:31:11] I thought you said not include...

[00:31:13] Like, even if Roki doesn't need one.

[00:31:15] No.

[00:31:15] Like, we listen to Joel Wolfe, his agent, talk in person at the winter meetings, right?

[00:31:19] During that huge media scrum, which both of us were standing in there for.

[00:31:22] And that's one of the things that Joel Wolfe said is the six-man rotation, maybe something

[00:31:27] he looks at.

[00:31:28] It could benefit him.

[00:31:28] So if that's the case, you could...

[00:31:32] Depending on how the year goes, you could see Emerson Hancock, Logan Evans, and Brandon Garcia

[00:31:36] all get some innings in there, depending on who's the most big league ready.

[00:31:41] Depends on who's healthy.

[00:31:42] Depends on who's pitching the best.

[00:31:45] But that may be the sixth guy in your six-man rotation if that were to happen.

[00:31:48] It would be super beneficial to all parties.

[00:31:50] It'd be beneficial to Roki.

[00:31:51] It would be beneficial to either Brandon or Logan, whoever they decide to put in that

[00:31:55] sixth spot to help out this rotation.

[00:31:59] But it's a dream at this point.

[00:32:00] Isn't it crazy?

[00:32:02] Excuse me.

[00:32:03] My voice is really trying to recover here from winter meetings.

[00:32:07] The exhaustion...

[00:32:08] I think it's the exhaustion just is sort of catching up to me, and I'm trying to get it

[00:32:12] back in case you can't tell.

[00:32:14] I was going to say, I think both of us are going through it in case you can't tell.

[00:32:17] I've been made fun of on Brock and Salk all week about my voice.

[00:32:20] So yeah, we're both trying to recover.

[00:32:21] I love the reaction when you called on Monday.

[00:32:25] Was it Monday or Tuesday?

[00:32:26] Tuesday.

[00:32:26] No, it was Tuesday.

[00:32:27] And it was like, oh!

[00:32:29] Your voice is shot.

[00:32:31] Yeah.

[00:32:31] Well, when Arizona...

[00:32:32] Cause a seam, Lyle.

[00:32:34] When Arizona State beats the brakes off of Iowa State, this is what happens.

[00:32:37] Right.

[00:32:38] Yeah.

[00:32:39] Isn't it crazy that we went through on Wednesday's episode and listed out all of the reasons

[00:32:47] why Roki Sasaki would fit in Seattle?

[00:32:50] Whether it be the ease of which the Mariners could put a six-man rotation together.

[00:32:55] Whether it be the ballpark, which is extremely picture-friendly.

[00:32:59] Whether it be the soft media environment.

[00:33:02] Whether it be their really good track record of pitching development.

[00:33:07] And yet, now we've had multiple reports come out and say the Mariners' chances are near zero.

[00:33:13] Which is interesting because the Mariners themselves sound fairly confident.

[00:33:17] But other outside sources seem to believe the opposite.

[00:33:22] It is...

[00:33:23] I'm just curious.

[00:33:24] Like, why?

[00:33:25] I would love to get some context on that.

[00:33:27] Because, yeah.

[00:33:28] Seattle checks a lot of boxes.

[00:33:30] I'm not saying they'll be ahead of LA or San Diego.

[00:33:34] But is it crazy to say they'd be third in terms of the odds-on favorites to land them?

[00:33:40] It doesn't seem crazy to me that behind the Dodgers and Padres they could be third.

[00:33:43] They have all these things that meet Roki's needs.

[00:33:45] Including the ability to run a six-man rotation potentially.

[00:33:48] So, why is it a zero percent chance per some other people?

[00:33:53] I'd love to get some information on that.

[00:33:54] Could it just be the organizational reputation?

[00:33:58] Yeah.

[00:33:59] Does Roki know all those things?

[00:34:01] He's going to do his research.

[00:34:03] Which was interesting.

[00:34:05] Joel talked about that too during his presser at the winter meetings.

[00:34:08] He said, Roki's really smart.

[00:34:10] Tuned in.

[00:34:11] Apparently in Japan with some of the guys that he was playing with that had experience and time in Major League Baseball.

[00:34:16] He was asking them about the majors every day, apparently.

[00:34:20] So, yeah.

[00:34:21] According to Joel Wolfe, he is tuned in and doing his own research and doing his studying and really putting his time and effort into this thing.

[00:34:28] Now, when he says that, does that mean he's going to run into all the things that the Mariners have done poorly over the last few years?

[00:34:37] Maybe.

[00:34:38] But does it outweigh the things that they've done well?

[00:34:41] Like the pitcher's park and the rotation and the development, etc.

[00:34:45] That's a good question.

[00:34:46] That's what I'd love clarity on.

[00:34:47] Like we know the Mariners organizationally, like the people working in the organization are very good at what they do.

[00:34:55] The marketing, the player development is fantastic.

[00:34:59] The relationships with agents we know is not good.

[00:35:03] Ownership we also know is not good.

[00:35:05] Like what is Roki weighing here?

[00:35:08] Yeah.

[00:35:09] And when we say relationships...

[00:35:10] And I assume the latter two things.

[00:35:12] When we say relationships with agents, that has nothing to do with like the aforementioned people you said are working in the org.

[00:35:17] It's Jerry DePoto's relationships with agents.

[00:35:20] Correct.

[00:35:20] Or the people at the...

[00:35:22] Yeah.

[00:35:22] It's...

[00:35:23] Yes.

[00:35:23] Correct.

[00:35:24] It is that and it is ownership.

[00:35:27] Those are...

[00:35:27] Those are...

[00:35:28] That's what's working against them.

[00:35:30] So we'll see.

[00:35:32] Would it just make sense?

[00:35:34] Like we don't know this.

[00:35:35] This is total speculation.

[00:35:36] Would it make sense in this case that Joel Wolfe is one of those guys?

[00:35:42] It's tough to know.

[00:35:43] There's no way of knowing.

[00:35:44] There is no way of knowing.

[00:35:46] But if that was actually the case, it would make sense.

[00:35:49] Right.

[00:35:49] Like that would literally answer everything.

[00:35:51] It's like, well, we listed off all the reasons.

[00:35:53] Oh, but Joel Wolfe hates the Mariners.

[00:35:55] Right.

[00:35:55] And if that's the case, then it's dead.

[00:35:57] Right.

[00:35:58] So they'd be curious.

[00:35:59] I hope we do get some clarification.

[00:36:01] I really hope that someone can clarify.

[00:36:05] Because I think the upside of it, or at least the reasons, make a lot of sense.

[00:36:11] So it's unfortunate when you list all those things out and still someone says, yeah, it's not happening.

[00:36:17] It's like, well...

[00:36:17] Well, of course, all the reasoning makes sense.

[00:36:20] Roki Sasaki's ceiling is the best pitcher in baseball.

[00:36:22] The dude has two 80-grade pitches and he's going to cost no money.

[00:36:25] No, I meant from the Mariners' side.

[00:36:27] Ah.

[00:36:28] Well, yes.

[00:36:29] Don't they want all those things?

[00:36:31] I would think so.

[00:36:33] Oh, you're saying Roki's potential interest in Seattle, not the Mariners' interest in Roki.

[00:36:39] Right.

[00:36:39] These are all the things you want.

[00:36:40] These are all the things that we have.

[00:36:42] Right.

[00:36:43] So why would it be an instant no?

[00:36:46] They do have a sales pitch.

[00:36:47] They absolutely have a sales pitch.

[00:36:49] Will he listen?

[00:36:50] Will he give them a chance?

[00:36:52] Will he visit the city?

[00:36:53] Because I'm assuming when he gets down to his final three to five teams, somewhere in that range,

[00:36:58] I'm going to guess he's going to do some visits.

[00:37:01] Shohei didn't.

[00:37:01] But I would guess Roki will.

[00:37:05] And if he does, I wonder if Seattle gets a chance to show him the city.

[00:37:09] So who's going to do a Roki Sasaki watch at SeaTac?

[00:37:13] Oh, somebody on Mariners' Twitter is going to find it.

[00:37:16] Or we could do a Marine Layer podcast hangout in the SeaTac Alaska Airlines terminal.

[00:37:22] I was about to say, or even just at T-Mobile Park.

[00:37:25] Remember last year when the Shohei won for 65 report came out?

[00:37:29] Paired with the team store announcing it was closing on that December 8th or 9th.

[00:37:35] Everything was coming together.

[00:37:36] That was our peak of the Shohei conspiracy.

[00:37:39] It was like, this is happening.

[00:37:40] We're going to land them.

[00:37:41] And then the two of us are like, hey, who wants to meet up outside of T-Mobile Park for a little tailgate to see Shohei come through?

[00:37:51] Peek through the windows.

[00:37:53] And then we had all those people, or just see him enter the ballpark somewhere.

[00:37:56] And then we had all those people that were sending us comments.

[00:37:58] It's like, no, don't do it.

[00:38:01] You're going to ruin it.

[00:38:02] He's not going to sign here because of you guys.

[00:38:07] Remember all that?

[00:38:08] Well, if the team store closes between, let's say it closes in the second week of January, then we're kicking it back up.

[00:38:17] Do you legitimately remember those comments where people were like, you guys are going to ruin his chances to sign in Seattle?

[00:38:22] I remember that because it was the same thing that caused Shohei to choose the Angels in the first place.

[00:38:27] They thought the Mariners were doing too much.

[00:38:30] What says too much?

[00:38:31] Like the fans tailgating your tour around the ballpark.

[00:38:39] Do you want to talk about something that actually might happen?

[00:38:42] Yes and no, but go ahead.

[00:38:44] Carlos Santana.

[00:38:46] So I say yes and no to that because I know he'd be great for this team and back in this clubhouse, but the no part of it is it just really feels like they're settling.

[00:38:56] That's my gripe.

[00:38:58] I love Carlos Santana.

[00:39:00] He is so great for this organization.

[00:39:03] You know the wonders he did once he got traded here in 2022, everything he did for Julio, how everything kind of sparked once he got into town.

[00:39:13] But it's a little bit of a settlement for a first baseman.

[00:39:17] It would be settling.

[00:39:18] Would it be more worth it, though, if it helps Julio reach what we expect of him?

[00:39:25] It would.

[00:39:27] They still need other reinforcements, though.

[00:39:28] Because this isn't just a veteran presence move.

[00:39:33] This is a veteran presence for Julio Rodriguez.

[00:39:37] Yes, it is.

[00:39:38] And that would do wonders.

[00:39:39] However, then you need to seriously upgrade second and third base.

[00:39:42] You can't trim around the margins there.

[00:39:46] You need to add impact at those other positions.

[00:39:49] Well, if Castillo doesn't get traded, then they would have five to seven million dollars to do that.

[00:39:54] Yeah, because Santana is going to cost probably ten.

[00:39:57] How much?

[00:39:58] Eight to ten.

[00:40:00] Well, I mean, eight to ten.

[00:40:00] It's still not leaving you much room.

[00:40:03] I figured it would be like five to seven.

[00:40:05] He's not signing for league minimum.

[00:40:08] I figured it would be five to seven, maybe.

[00:40:11] Even so.

[00:40:12] That leaves you with ten to eight million dollars for two spots.

[00:40:18] Speak, Chris Larson!

[00:40:20] Anyway, sorry.

[00:40:20] Sorry.

[00:40:22] Anyway, anyway.

[00:40:24] Barely hanging on by a thread.

[00:40:25] So this sounds like it's going to, if this does happen, it'll happen within the next week.

[00:40:31] Right.

[00:40:31] This has the most legs.

[00:40:34] That's what Divish said this week is, sounds like they're working towards something.

[00:40:39] We'll see if it happens.

[00:40:40] But it sounds like you're in it.

[00:40:42] If you want to spin zone it, you want to spin zone it?

[00:40:44] Okay.

[00:40:45] Spin zone?

[00:40:46] Optimism?

[00:40:48] Mariners winning the World Series next year?

[00:40:50] Because of Carlos Santana?

[00:40:52] Here would be his ranks on the 2024 Mariners.

[00:40:56] Ready?

[00:40:57] Mm-hmm.

[00:40:58] Carlos Santana would be the fourth best hitter by WRC+.

[00:41:02] Carlos Santana would hit the second most home runs on the 2024 Seattle Mariners.

[00:41:09] Carlos Santana would be third in wins above replacement among all 2024 Seattle Mariners.

[00:41:16] And he would have the lowest strikeout rate.

[00:41:19] When you say war, you mean position players, right?

[00:41:22] Probably.

[00:41:23] I would doubt his war is higher than a bunch of those rotation guys.

[00:41:29] Yes.

[00:41:30] It is position player war.

[00:41:32] But regardless, third best position player war is still valuable.

[00:41:38] Just shows what an awesome offense they had in 2024, I gotta tell you.

[00:41:43] And he won a gold glove.

[00:41:46] Look, he would provide value.

[00:41:49] I would just much, much rather see them do more damage at one of those positions.

[00:41:55] Like Christian Walker.

[00:41:57] And given his age, he could fall off a cliff at any moment.

[00:42:00] Even if he had a good year last year, it doesn't guarantee that he's gonna have a great year coming up.

[00:42:06] Nothing is really guaranteed in baseball.

[00:42:08] But once you cross 40, then people start getting a little bit nervous about being able to play all season and keep your bat speed up and be consistent within a lineup.

[00:42:16] If you remember from his 2022 campaign, there was a lot of time Carlos Santana spent in the lineup.

[00:42:22] He wasn't great.

[00:42:23] His thing was hitting the most clutch home runs possible.

[00:42:27] And the Mariners got that.

[00:42:28] That's fantastic.

[00:42:29] He was a little bit more consistent this past season.

[00:42:33] But it's no guarantee for this upcoming season.

[00:42:37] However, Mariners said they were gonna sign a veteran first baseman.

[00:42:41] Looks like Carlos Santana's gonna be the guy.

[00:42:44] Not Justin Turner.

[00:42:44] Very interesting.

[00:42:45] I'm guessing Justin Turner just wants to go back to Southern California.

[00:42:50] Which is understandable.

[00:42:51] It makes sense.

[00:42:52] If there's some way for him to get back on that Dodgers team, I'm sure he'd do it.

[00:42:56] How could you not at this point?

[00:42:58] If you're Justin Turner, you see the team.

[00:43:00] Probably wants to win another title.

[00:43:02] Sure.

[00:43:03] But yeah, if you're gonna pick between those two, Santana's probably the more valuable one.

[00:43:08] I would love to see them make that signing and sign somebody like Christian Walker.

[00:43:13] And then Santana can be a bench bat.

[00:43:14] But it doesn't seem like that's gonna happen.

[00:43:16] Like he was in 2022.

[00:43:17] He was a bench bat.

[00:43:18] Right.

[00:43:19] Just doesn't seem like that's gonna happen.

[00:43:21] There's still a lot of offseason left.

[00:43:23] For people who are optimistic, there still are reasons to be optimistic.

[00:43:28] Not as much as you would like.

[00:43:30] But there's still a lot of time left for moves to be made, trades to happen, budget to be freed up.

[00:43:37] So we'll see.

[00:43:38] Let's get to the last thing that we have here on the notes about the Mariners draft pick.

[00:43:43] And draft, almost winning the lottery in the MLB draft.

[00:43:48] Where they are now gonna pick number three overall.

[00:43:51] They were projected among odds to pick 15th.

[00:43:55] Instead, they're picking third overall.

[00:43:58] There's a lot of ways we can go about this and how this pick impacts this offseason.

[00:44:04] Which one would you like to start with?

[00:44:07] How about the fact that at the winter meetings, when we were walking around the hotel lobby and talking to people, we didn't think to go into the draft lottery room.

[00:44:17] We said, whatever.

[00:44:17] Mariners are gonna pick projected 15th.

[00:44:20] Maybe it'll be 12th.

[00:44:21] But it's not.

[00:44:22] It is what it is.

[00:44:24] Is it really gonna move the needle?

[00:44:25] We just figured we'll find out when we find out on Twitter.

[00:44:28] Then all of a sudden, picks are winding down.

[00:44:30] 11, 10, 9, 8, 7.

[00:44:32] We're like, oh my god.

[00:44:35] It got through 7.

[00:44:36] Seattle had not been called.

[00:44:37] Went to a commercial break.

[00:44:38] Like, we book it through the hotel down the hallway to get into this draft lottery room.

[00:44:44] Which, by the way, was as big as some aircraft carrier room.

[00:44:49] It was like an airplane hangar.

[00:44:50] It was the biggest room I've ever seen in the Hilton Anatole in Dallas.

[00:44:54] And then we're in there as they're counting down the picks.

[00:44:56] Six, not the Mariners.

[00:44:58] Five, not the Mariners.

[00:44:59] And we're doing the vlog through all of it.

[00:45:00] We're like, ah!

[00:45:01] Oh my god.

[00:45:01] We kind of have to be quiet.

[00:45:03] But we're like, this is unreal.

[00:45:04] This is unreal.

[00:45:05] And when they got to the third pick, obviously we were starting to think, could they actually get number one?

[00:45:10] And you know that they didn't get number one.

[00:45:12] It was still pretty crazy.

[00:45:13] But this changes things because you're gonna get what may be the best prospect in your whole system with this pick.

[00:45:19] Maybe not quite over Colt Emerson.

[00:45:22] Because he's a stud.

[00:45:23] But you're gonna get a guy that is gonna be one of the 20 best prospects in baseball the minute you draft him.

[00:45:28] This draft class is supposed to be really, really good.

[00:45:32] And top three picks are blue chip players.

[00:45:35] Top three picks are not just guys that are supposed to be good, are supposed to be starters, are supposed to help your franchise.

[00:45:42] No, they can change a franchise.

[00:45:44] You have the chance to land a guy like that.

[00:45:47] Just don't mention who the Mariners took last time they had the number three pick.

[00:45:52] Fine.

[00:45:52] Mike Zanino.

[00:45:53] I will also say Jerry and Justin have never drafted this high.

[00:45:56] They drafted him in the top ten once.

[00:45:57] It was Emerson Hancock.

[00:45:59] But I will say two things about that draft.

[00:46:01] Number one, that wasn't a great draft class to begin with in general.

[00:46:05] And number two, look at everybody else that's been drafted in those first 15 picks.

[00:46:11] There's not a lot of superstars out of that group.

[00:46:13] Mm-mm.

[00:46:15] In the way it changes things, as we mentioned earlier, I think because of the draft position and the potential player you could get at number three.

[00:46:24] And by the way, they also got the 30th pick this week as a compensation pick.

[00:46:27] So they're going to pick, yeah, number 30.

[00:46:29] So they pick up in total, in terms of signing bonus money, about $6 million to spend in their draft pool based on those picks.

[00:46:40] They could go slot.

[00:46:41] They could go under.

[00:46:42] They could go over.

[00:46:43] However they decide to spend it.

[00:46:45] But what that does is that you have now the ability to add one definite blue chip prospect and one guy who you feel confident will be a blue chip prospect.

[00:46:55] But might need a little bit more work at the end of the first round.

[00:46:59] What it does is that it will allow you to replenish your system a little bit quicker with either a higher upside guy or like the best high school prospect right out of the draft.

[00:47:09] Or another way I thought about this.

[00:47:11] So actually, let's go through two different versions of this.

[00:47:14] Just sort of hypothetical.

[00:47:16] Actually, let's do three different versions of this.

[00:47:18] Here's number one.

[00:47:20] And what I've seen sort of thrown out there based on how the Mariners have operated draft wise is the Mariners could go under slot at three and spread all that money out throughout, say, their first four picks.

[00:47:33] So they get four really good players instead of one great player and three good players.

[00:47:38] Because when you save money that high, you can spread that extra $500,000 to a million dollars at different picks and sign someone like Ryan Sloan in the second round.

[00:47:47] Who we talked to on Wednesday.

[00:47:49] If you haven't heard that interview, go check it out.

[00:47:50] But the Mariners don't sign Ryan Sloan unless they commit way more bonus pool money than his slot value is.

[00:47:57] So they could do that and aggregate more.

[00:48:00] Number two, they could just grab if Jace Laviolette is available.

[00:48:06] Did I pronounce that right?

[00:48:07] Yeah.

[00:48:08] Close.

[00:48:08] Yeah.

[00:48:09] There we go.

[00:48:10] Is available at number three.

[00:48:13] And he might be the number three prospect right now.

[00:48:15] I think he's projected number one.

[00:48:17] But that's preseason.

[00:48:18] They still got to play an entire college season and things could change.

[00:48:22] So you trade, you know, you trade an outfielder in your system and you instantly replace him with someone with a higher upside.

[00:48:29] And you're like, oh, that's pretty cool.

[00:48:31] So it makes you feel less bad about that.

[00:48:33] And then here's a last version of this before I let you respond is where you trade one of your starters has been has been floated out there this offseason.

[00:48:43] And the Mariners right now are as projected number three.

[00:48:46] The mock drafts out there have projected the Mariners take Jamie Arnold out of Florida State, a left handed pitcher with a ton of upside.

[00:48:54] Now a pitcher at number three, you expect that guy to be in the big leagues within a year.

[00:48:58] And then you're starting rotation and dominating.

[00:49:01] So if you draft Jamie Arnold, he could have more upside than the guy you're trading away already.

[00:49:06] And that says a lot based on what you already have in your rotation.

[00:49:09] So the pick really allows you a lot of options of what you can even consider in this offseason.

[00:49:17] Let's clarify.

[00:49:18] Jamie Arnold's a left handed pitcher out of Florida State.

[00:49:21] So if he was a high school arm, he would not be in the big leagues within a year because he is pitching in college and he will be a college arm.

[00:49:28] Yes, that expectation is reasonable that he could get to the big leagues very, very fast.

[00:49:32] So that is a possibility to the first option about going under slot at three.

[00:49:37] Let me just respond to that.

[00:49:39] No, no, you're not doing that.

[00:49:41] I know there's there's strategy behind it.

[00:49:44] You don't ever get to pick that high.

[00:49:46] You were just gifted this hand wrapped lottery present.

[00:49:50] Use it.

[00:49:51] Don't go under slot at three.

[00:49:53] Pick the star and then get good players later.

[00:49:56] And yes, if Jace Laviolette is there, you take him without hesitation as long as he has a good year again at A&M.

[00:50:04] Opens up a lot of options.

[00:50:06] It is as good of an outcome as you could have possibly had.

[00:50:10] Sands the number one or number two overall picks in the draft lottery.

[00:50:14] I think it's funny because I think the lottery is kind of stupid.

[00:50:17] Sometimes it's too random.

[00:50:19] And some teams that stink don't actually get to pick where they should to get their team better.

[00:50:26] But the Mariners sake after missing the playoffs by a game works out just OK.

[00:50:31] I would also say it incentivizes teams to not tank.

[00:50:37] That's what the lottery does.

[00:50:39] The A's don't just just the A's don't get to just pick number one every year.

[00:50:42] Neither do the White Sox.

[00:50:43] So you don't just get to benefit that.

[00:50:45] Well, teams tank anyway.

[00:50:47] Just saying.

[00:50:49] You don't get the number one pick as a result.

[00:50:50] You don't get rewarded for losing.

[00:50:52] I don't think the MLB draft lottery has disincentivized teams from not sucking.

[00:51:00] No, but less than it would.

[00:51:03] Yeah, I guess the Major League Baseball one has just been has been pretty random.

[00:51:08] And there's the rules where you can't pick in the top 12 or six or whatever for more than I think two years in a row.

[00:51:16] So the Mariners are still eligible.

[00:51:17] Somehow they went miss the playoffs and get into lottery again and and get great odds and picking the top six again next year that they could do that technically.

[00:51:29] But it just it's kind of random.

[00:51:31] But in this case, the randomness works out in the Mariners favor.

[00:51:34] Right.

[00:51:35] If you want to try to spin it for how Laviolette could fall to three to the Mariners, I will say this.

[00:51:42] Right now, Jason Laviolette's projected one.

[00:51:45] I still have a feeling by the end it's going to be Ethan Holiday, who's Jackson Holiday's younger brother, Matt Holiday's son.

[00:51:51] He's going to be the number one pick.

[00:51:54] That would actually work in the Mariners favor in a lot of ways.

[00:51:57] Would I like the Mariners to get Ethan Holiday?

[00:51:59] Yeah, that would be sick.

[00:52:00] Would Scott Bors let Ethan Holiday sign in Seattle?

[00:52:03] Eh.

[00:52:03] Would he jack up the price a bunch?

[00:52:05] Possibly.

[00:52:06] We know Boris and the Mariners don't have a great relationship.

[00:52:08] So I don't know if that helps things immensely.

[00:52:11] So let's say Holiday goes before that.

[00:52:13] Let's say it goes one.

[00:52:14] Let's say both the Holiday brothers stay in the D.C. area, in the Maryland, Virginia, D.C. area.

[00:52:20] Then at number two, you just need the Angels to take somebody not named Jace Laviolette.

[00:52:23] Let's say they need a pitcher.

[00:52:25] Let's say there's another college infielder they like.

[00:52:27] Let's say there's another even college outfielder they like.

[00:52:30] High school infielder.

[00:52:31] Maybe the Angels feel like their needs are different.

[00:52:33] They still need a lot of pitching.

[00:52:34] Maybe they take Jamie Arnold at two.

[00:52:36] That happens.

[00:52:38] Jace falls at three.

[00:52:40] Be cool.

[00:52:40] I wouldn't sit here, though, and obsess over any one prospect at this point.

[00:52:46] No.

[00:52:47] Because a lot changes.

[00:52:48] You've got to still watch the entirety of the next college season.

[00:52:51] And a lot will change from now to then.

[00:52:54] I've talked about that kid Cam Canarella from Clemson, who I think is really good.

[00:52:58] A lot will change from now until July.

[00:53:01] And the mock drafts and the prospects will fluctuate.

[00:53:05] But if Laviolette has another good season, he's probably going in the top three.

[00:53:08] I do wonder, though, if you put some truth serum in Jerry DiPoto's drink and had him talk about how this pick would impact his thinking this offseason.

[00:53:17] I'd be curious what he thinks.

[00:53:19] Like, is what we say something they actually believe?

[00:53:22] Because if you talk it out, it kind of makes sense.

[00:53:25] You restock your farm system like that.

[00:53:27] Even though you don't need the number three overall pick, but you'll sure take it.

[00:53:33] And it greatly benefits you.

[00:53:35] Let me use an example here.

[00:53:37] Let's circle back to the Castillo trade with the Red Sox, right?

[00:53:39] The Red Sox want pitching.

[00:53:42] Instead of it being Castillo and a prospect, or a hitting prospect, just the example of Jamie Arnold.

[00:53:51] Could you trade Castillo and Gerangelo Sanja and then make up for that by taking Jamie Arnold at three?

[00:53:56] Possible.

[00:53:58] If that's what the price would be for Tristan Casas, yeah.

[00:54:02] Because that's what it sounds like the Red Sox want.

[00:54:05] Right.

[00:54:05] And they don't have a bunch of stud pitching prospects either.

[00:54:08] So the idea of you could get an established big league starter and a high upside pitching prospect,

[00:54:14] and then the Mariners could make up for that by taking Jamie Arnold at three or some pitcher.

[00:54:18] Right.

[00:54:18] And that replaces Gerangelo right away.

[00:54:21] Right.

[00:54:22] And it not only replaces him, you get someone who might be further along at that point,

[00:54:27] but depending on his development, we're not sure because Gerangelo hasn't thrown a pitch as a Seattle Mariner yet.

[00:54:32] Right.

[00:54:34] But it gives you options.

[00:54:36] Right.

[00:54:36] And I do wonder if Jerry's thinking that way.

[00:54:39] Or if they trade an infielder with the idea that they really like Ethan Holiday, think he falls to three, and they could take him there.

[00:54:46] Then do you trade Felneen?

[00:54:47] Could you trade Felneen in a crazy package to actually get Vladdy if you felt like he was going to sign an extension?

[00:54:53] Could you trade Felneen and some other big prospects?

[00:54:57] Probably not Colt Emerson, but some others.

[00:55:00] Get Vladdy, extend him, and you make up for that by taking Ethan Holiday.

[00:55:04] Colt Emerson is the only prospect in your system that will be ranked higher than whoever they draft at number three, it seems like.

[00:55:11] Yeah.

[00:55:12] So think about it that way when you're thinking about who's available, who you view as an available prospect.

[00:55:20] Because once you think about it that way, you're like, oh, then you're just going to add someone higher.

[00:55:24] Oh, okay.

[00:55:26] They really lucked into that number three pick.

[00:55:28] And I'll tell you, if you watch that video that's out on social media of the front office reacting to every pick and just screaming and cheering, you know they were fired up about it.

[00:55:36] They had good reason to.

[00:55:37] The odds of them getting that third pick was probably less than 1%.

[00:55:44] It's wild.

[00:55:45] It's close.

[00:55:46] We'll take it.

[00:55:49] Even if ever so slightly, it does help this Mariners offseason.

[00:55:54] And if the Mariners don't think that, I think they should view it as something that could help their offseason.

[00:55:59] Because you know what?

[00:56:00] Right now, you need to focus on the major league talent acquisition and then worry about the prospects in your system once the draft comes around.

[00:56:12] Because you will have some way to replenish the top-end talent you might lose this offseason.

[00:56:20] By the next time we record a podcast, will they have made a trader signing, yes or no?

[00:56:26] I'm going to say yes.

[00:56:28] That would be awesome.

[00:56:30] Because look, hypotheticals are fun, but I want real moves to be made.

[00:56:34] But it will probably just be Carlos Santana.

[00:56:38] At least it's something new, I guess.

[00:56:41] Somewhat new.

[00:56:42] Sort of.

[00:56:43] Only the third time he'd be a Mariner.

[00:56:45] Yeah.

[00:56:46] But only the second time he'd play in a Mariners uniform.

[00:56:49] Oh, that's true.

[00:56:50] That is true, Lyle.

[00:56:52] That is true.

[00:56:52] But I would say yes.

[00:56:53] There is.

[00:56:54] It sounds like there's been at least enough legs on things that by now.

[00:56:59] Well, we'll record on Monday.

[00:57:01] I think so.

[00:57:02] I think something will happen.

[00:57:03] By the time the episode comes out.

[00:57:05] Right.

[00:57:07] Let's say by Wednesday.

[00:57:08] Because by Wednesday, if something happens and we recorded a Monday episode, but then something happened after that,

[00:57:14] that would obviously do an emergency episode instead.

[00:57:17] So let's hope by then something's happening.

[00:57:20] Because I'm ready for this offseason to get going.

[00:57:21] I want to see how they're going to get this roster better.

[00:57:23] I really do.

[00:57:24] I want the paranoia to go away.

[00:57:27] Yes.

[00:57:28] Correct.

[00:57:30] Well, there have been a lot of hypotheticals in the last week.

[00:57:32] That's why we talked about them all here on this episode.

[00:57:35] A lot of them are really interesting.

[00:57:36] We'll see if any of them come to fruition.

[00:57:38] That number three draft pick is a big, big deal.

[00:57:40] So don't sell that short.

[00:57:41] I think it's going to pay dividends for the Mariners here moving forward.

[00:57:44] All right.

[00:57:45] That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast.

[00:57:48] You guys know the drill.

[00:57:49] If you want to listen to the full-form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods.

[00:57:53] Make sure to download.

[00:57:54] Make sure to subscribe.

[00:57:56] Well, make sure to download the episodes if you're listening.

[00:57:58] Make sure to like.

[00:57:59] And I'm getting everything jumbled.

[00:58:01] Yes.

[00:58:01] If you're listening to the audio podcast, download, rate, and review.

[00:58:04] Leave it five stars.

[00:58:05] Like and comment and subscribe if you're watching on YouTube.

[00:58:07] Please hit that subscribe button if you're watching.

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[00:58:19] That's TJ.

[00:58:20] I'm Lyle.

[00:58:20] As always, we thank you guys for tuning in.

[00:58:22] We'll talk to you soon.

[00:58:23] We're going to see you soon.