Episode 195: Was Jeff Passan Subtweeting The Mariners? + Luke Arkins (Mariners Consigliere Newsletter)

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[00:00:29] Welcome to episode number 195 of the Marine Layer Podcast.

[00:00:33] We welcome on Luke Arkins, the creator of the Mariners Consigliere Newsletter.

[00:00:38] We chat with him about the offseason, the Mariners 2025 expectations and how we got into covering the team.

[00:00:45] We'll also discuss if Jeff Passan was subtweeting the Mariners earlier this week and we'll wrap up the 2024 year for us, the Marine Layer Podcast.

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[00:01:56] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network,

[00:02:02] recording on Monday afternoon, December 30th.

[00:02:06] Wow, have the Mariners made a move yet?

[00:02:08] Huh?

[00:02:10] Nope.

[00:02:11] No, they have not.

[00:02:13] I think they're about to go into 2025 without having made a single major league transaction.

[00:02:21] What's the over under on number of podcasts we record before they make a move?

[00:02:26] Is it four and a half?

[00:02:27] Is it three and a half?

[00:02:28] Is it ten and a half?

[00:02:30] I don't even know at this point.

[00:02:33] When are they going to make a move?

[00:02:34] Is their first move going to be in March at spring training?

[00:02:38] I hope not.

[00:02:40] The rate we're going.

[00:02:42] Who's going to be available in March?

[00:02:45] Justin Turner, I hope.

[00:02:48] Ty France?

[00:02:49] Well, Ty France might be available in March.

[00:02:51] That's for sure.

[00:02:52] At least for a major league deal.

[00:02:54] Might have a minor league deal on the table.

[00:02:57] Yeah.

[00:02:59] Maybe they'll wait until after Roki Sasaki signs, which will be very, very shortly after

[00:03:03] January 15th, if not on January 15th.

[00:03:06] But it shouldn't be that way.

[00:03:10] I mean, it should be independent of everything else.

[00:03:12] Yes.

[00:03:12] Signing Roki should be 100% independent, given that they've already gotten to plan Z and talked

[00:03:18] about trading Luis Castillo with other teams.

[00:03:20] And I'm not even saying the Mariners are waiting to see if they sign Roki.

[00:03:24] I'm saying they might just be waiting to see where Roki Sasaki signs period and see if that opens up either the Castillo

[00:03:30] trade market or some other trade markets, etc.

[00:03:33] Regardless, again, that should not be your plan.

[00:03:37] So then I think that puts you over under five and a half podcast episodes.

[00:03:43] Into the new year?

[00:03:44] That sounds about right.

[00:03:45] Yeah, from now.

[00:03:46] Not including this one.

[00:03:47] Five and a half after the release of this one.

[00:03:50] Mm-hmm.

[00:03:51] So what are you taking?

[00:03:57] I want to say under, but I can't confidently say under.

[00:04:03] Some real urgency there.

[00:04:05] Man.

[00:04:06] I'll go under.

[00:04:07] They are going to make a move before January 15th.

[00:04:10] Wow.

[00:04:11] I hope so.

[00:04:12] They should.

[00:04:13] At some point, there's going to be some urgency shown, right?

[00:04:17] You see?

[00:04:18] You're not confident either.

[00:04:19] You just said under, but you're like, under.

[00:04:22] Well, this is, I mean, this is the whole point of gambling, Lau.

[00:04:25] Like, we can be as confident as we want, but we're just playing numbers here.

[00:04:28] Mm-hmm.

[00:04:30] Right.

[00:04:30] And the numbers say that Jerry DePoto is probably anxious trying to get a move done right now.

[00:04:36] Like, that's probably true.

[00:04:37] I don't think Jerry's sitting around being like, oh, we're good.

[00:04:41] Because there's been enough reporting out there that they have been talking about moves.

[00:04:47] They've made offers to free agents.

[00:04:49] They just haven't, they haven't chosen the Mariners or the Mariners haven't ended up doing the trade offers they've had.

[00:04:55] Which, by the way, if we want to touch on it quickly, because I don't think we talked about this on our last episode.

[00:05:00] We talked about specifically the Mariners being frustrated with the offers for Luis Castillo.

[00:05:05] I think we at least should mention that there was a concrete offer after we finished recording that episode that was reported by Mark Fein said.

[00:05:15] And he said that the package the Red Sox were willing to do, it sounded like the Red Sox were willing to do, was Tristan Casas and Masataka Yoshida, plus Yoshida's contract, which is about $56 million over the next three years for Luis Castillo.

[00:05:32] And the Mariners turned it down.

[00:05:33] What do you think about that?

[00:05:37] Not great things.

[00:05:39] I'm torn.

[00:05:40] I'm torn because I cannot say this enough.

[00:05:43] You shouldn't have to trade Luis Castillo.

[00:05:46] If you're going to trade, trade prospects to get bats, otherwise sign the bats.

[00:05:51] But I think we all know how that goes.

[00:05:53] So, if you are talking about the specific return you could get for a Luis Castillo trade,

[00:06:01] I'm not sure you're going to get many, at least in terms of the player return and big leaguers that are better than this.

[00:06:09] A controllable Tristan Casas with 40 homer upside and four years of control.

[00:06:13] And Masataka Yoshida, which look, the guy can't field.

[00:06:17] He's not going to play the outfield.

[00:06:18] He's going to be your DH.

[00:06:20] There's a 115 WRC plus hitter last year.

[00:06:23] That is two above average bats you would get back at two positions of need.

[00:06:28] And you say no.

[00:06:29] Oh, and oh, by the way, which you outlined so incredibly thoroughly, Tej, once that news came out on Friday, I believe.

[00:06:37] The Mariners actually save money by doing that.

[00:06:40] Not lose.

[00:06:40] Not lose money.

[00:06:41] They save money by doing that trade.

[00:06:43] And they said no.

[00:06:45] They said no.

[00:06:46] Because they weren't saving enough money.

[00:06:48] They wanted to, they want, I imagine they want to save most of Luis Castillo's $24 million price tag for this upcoming season,

[00:06:55] if they're going to trade him and the seasons in the future as well.

[00:06:59] They would have saved, rough maths.

[00:07:02] They would have $6 million.

[00:07:04] They would have saved $6 million in the first year.

[00:07:07] And then let's say Casas makes four in his first year of ARB.

[00:07:10] They would have saved two the year after that.

[00:07:13] And then Castillo would have his vesting option, which his bumps up to 25.

[00:07:17] If Casas gets doubled to eight, it like, it comes out essentially a wash at that point.

[00:07:22] So that's, I think the rough math on it, but the Mariners didn't feel like saving $6 million this year and adding two bats into their lineup would be worth it.

[00:07:30] We talked a little bit about this with Luke Arkins and we'll save most of that for this conversation, but he was highlighting.

[00:07:36] Look, if you trade for Yoshida at this point.

[00:07:38] Yeah. I mean the money is attached in this trade, but then you have essentially three DHS on your roster.

[00:07:43] You have Mitch Hanegar, you have Mitch Garver, and you have Masataki Yoshida.

[00:07:48] That's tough from a roster management perspective, from a pure baseball perspective.

[00:07:53] If you fully wanted all three of those players on your roster going into 2025, that's pretty difficult.

[00:07:59] The problem is, you and I have talked about too, like they should very much be looking into moving one of the, or both of the Mitches off their roster.

[00:08:06] An attempt to save money because the roles the Mitches could occupy in 2025 is so minute and also just not expected to be that much.

[00:08:18] Therefore, you should be looking to potentially save the money and clear up roster space.

[00:08:23] That's a big reason why you can't do this trade.

[00:08:25] And it's unfortunate because, you know, say Mitch Hanegar is not on this roster and not owed this money and maybe Robbie Ray was instead.

[00:08:34] Then they could do this trade with Luke.

[00:08:36] Yeah.

[00:08:37] And another reason they could do this trade because they'd have Robbie Ray, they would have Robbie Ray in their rotation and they could keep, they could trade Luis Castillo, keep Robbie Ray and add two bats.

[00:08:48] Yeah.

[00:08:49] In theory.

[00:08:50] Now that's not, that is not projecting out budgetary decisions at all.

[00:08:56] But like just, just from a, from a player perspective on the roster, it fits better without that Robbie Ray trade happening about a year ago.

[00:09:04] Yeah.

[00:09:06] So two responses to that.

[00:09:08] I'll break it up.

[00:09:09] Number one is when you talk about trading the Mitches, just trade Hanegar.

[00:09:14] Look, you still need a backup catcher.

[00:09:17] I don't know how much money of Garvers you'd really save by trading them, but Hanegar and Yoshida are pretty similar.

[00:09:22] They are both outfielders who can't play the outfield and cannot field at this point.

[00:09:27] That would be used as DHS and hoping that their bat plays up a little bit.

[00:09:32] So if you don't want to have two exact same type profile guys on the roster, fine.

[00:09:39] Then trade one, go trade Hanegar, attach a prospect, get his money off the books.

[00:09:43] And you just keep Garver to be a backup catcher because somebody has to be the backup catcher.

[00:09:47] And I would still bounce.

[00:09:49] Sorry.

[00:09:49] I would still bank on Garver bouncing back more in 2025 than I would Hanegar, at least to some extent.

[00:09:55] I'm with you on that.

[00:09:57] Yeah, no, I'm with you on that.

[00:09:59] So that gives you more roster flexibility.

[00:10:02] Again, Yoshida is not an athlete.

[00:10:03] He's not a very good fielder.

[00:10:05] But if you trade Hanegar, you don't have the crunch of three non-athletic guys on your roster who can't really be versatile and play any other positions.

[00:10:16] It's just your backup catcher and then you have a DH essentially.

[00:10:19] In the current budget, you would have to, I think, shed a little bit more payroll for the Mariners to at least go into the season with all these players on the roster.

[00:10:26] But, you know, you could find a way to make that happen.

[00:10:30] Yeah.

[00:10:30] Right.

[00:10:31] Here's point number two.

[00:10:33] Let's just call it what it is at this point.

[00:10:36] After these reports that came out about the Mariners saying no to the Tristan Kassas-Masutake-Oshita trade for Castillo.

[00:10:42] Let's call it what it is at this point.

[00:10:45] If the Mariners trade Luis Castillo, it's a salary dump.

[00:10:48] Don't call it anything else.

[00:10:50] It is a salary dump.

[00:10:51] Could they get offensive pieces back that would help them in 2025 and beyond?

[00:10:57] Sure.

[00:10:57] Could they go get young pieces to help their core moving forward like a Kobe Mayo if the Orioles agreed to it?

[00:11:03] Sure.

[00:11:04] But it's a salary dump.

[00:11:06] Don't kid yourself.

[00:11:07] Don't fool yourself.

[00:11:08] Don't call it anything else.

[00:11:10] Luis Castillo gets traded.

[00:11:11] It's a salary dump.

[00:11:13] It's hard to argue.

[00:11:16] Because if the money is even, the money would have been again about even or $6 million in savings while upgrading the lineup.

[00:11:24] I do think there was some variety of opinion on that trade package, which is good.

[00:11:30] I mean, I'm glad everyone thought through it and had some thoughts about how this would make the Mariners roster better or worse.

[00:11:38] And there were plenty of people that thought the loss of Castillo in the rotation would be greater than the addition of two bats in the lineup, which is, again, that's totally fine.

[00:11:47] From a baseball perspective, I think it's up in the air whether or not it was a good trade idea or not.

[00:11:52] I would have done the trade.

[00:11:54] I'll speak for you.

[00:11:55] I think you also would have done the trade given the current situation of what the Mariners in and what they've shown they're willing, the resources they're willing to put into the roster at this point and what's going to be available in the future.

[00:12:06] I feel like that's something you have to do.

[00:12:08] And the window of this next season and a couple of seasons after that is your window to go win games.

[00:12:17] And given the fact you won't be able to afford to keep some of your best players on it, it's just not a guarantee after even 2025 that you're going to have the full core intact and therefore have the ability to have a roster good enough where a trade like this would have enough of an impact to push you over the top.

[00:12:34] Because say the same offer was offered next season, Lyle.

[00:12:38] Does it quite hit the same if you have to trade Logan Gilbert to save money and you add two bats in the lineup?

[00:12:44] It's like, oh, well, then we're losing Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert going into next season.

[00:12:49] Oh, and all the rest of these guys are getting more expensive as well, so we don't really have the budget to upgrade.

[00:12:53] That doesn't quite hit the same at this point.

[00:12:56] No.

[00:12:56] Where, sure, this trade and the players will be on your roster beyond next season.

[00:13:02] But as I've said multiple times, the only season that matters is next season.

[00:13:06] That's the only season that should matter.

[00:13:08] I don't care about 2026.

[00:13:09] I don't care about 2027.

[00:13:11] I don't care what the money is going to look like in 2029.

[00:13:14] That's completely irrelevant because, like, if things don't work out, it's a very realistic possibility there are going to be new decision makers in place to worry about that 2029 money.

[00:13:26] So why should the current people in place have to worry about that at this point?

[00:13:29] And why should fans care about the 2029 money?

[00:13:32] Spoiler, they shouldn't.

[00:13:34] Let me just say this to your point about would you do that Castillo trade or not.

[00:13:39] Here's how I phrase it for me.

[00:13:42] I'd do it, but I'd be very unhappy about it.

[00:13:45] And I say that because they should not have to resort to trading out of their freaking rotation.

[00:13:51] That's what it's about.

[00:13:52] So to answer your question, I would do it, but I wouldn't be happy about it.

[00:13:56] It's a desperation trade is what it is to upgrade your lineup given what you have available.

[00:14:01] Right.

[00:14:01] Desperation.

[00:14:02] But the Mariners should be desperate right now.

[00:14:04] If they're not desperate right now, then I'd seriously be questioned about what the direction is.

[00:14:11] Because, like, the reality sets in that you've made the playoffs one time in nine years with this regime in place.

[00:14:18] There is immense fan pressure.

[00:14:20] It doesn't, it's not like people are reaching when the people say how angry they are watching what the Mariners are doing and the resources they're putting into this and being like, oh, I'm sure the fans will show up anyways.

[00:14:31] Are you sure?

[00:14:33] Are you sure?

[00:14:34] Like, it doesn't take much to go read some of the sentiment online.

[00:14:38] While it can be a cesspool, I do feel like more and more and more people are reaching to the point where they don't want to go watch Mariner games this upcoming year.

[00:14:47] And it's due to, like, they don't feel like the team is putting everything possible forward to go out there and go win.

[00:14:57] And a little bit of desperation would show that.

[00:15:00] And again, desperation, it's not usually a win-win trade.

[00:15:03] You're doing something as a gamble in a hope that it pays off this upcoming season.

[00:15:09] In a hope that you piece together Castillo's rotation spot with, say, Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans for the entire season.

[00:15:17] And they put up, like, a 105 ERA plus or something.

[00:15:20] Like, good enough as a five-starter that can get you through the entire season and then get you into the playoffs for that five-starter.

[00:15:26] It doesn't matter at all.

[00:15:27] It's just an extra spot in the bullpen.

[00:15:28] And saying, okay, well, the risk paid off because our lineup now is significantly better because we added those two bats into it.

[00:15:35] Just something like that that people want to see.

[00:15:37] It's like, oh, okay.

[00:15:38] Like, it's risk-taking season.

[00:15:40] Right.

[00:15:40] But if you trade Luis and Brian Wood gets hurt or if you trade Luis and George Kirby gets hurt, whoever, rotation gets real thin, real fast.

[00:15:52] For the love, for, like, good Lord, just sign the bats.

[00:15:56] They won't, but just sign the bats.

[00:15:58] Anyway, we've spent some time on this.

[00:16:01] We're going to talk about it.

[00:16:32] of a franchise, which you just mentioned.

[00:16:36] Somebody called out the direction

[00:16:38] of a lot of franchises this week,

[00:16:40] and that would be the voice of reason,

[00:16:43] the voice of the people,

[00:16:45] Jeffrey Passan.

[00:16:46] Jeff Passan.

[00:16:47] Let's give him a round of applause.

[00:16:52] Shout out to Jeff Passan.

[00:16:54] Woo!

[00:16:54] Passan fired me up with that tweet.

[00:16:56] Let's go, Passan.

[00:16:57] We need more of that.

[00:16:59] We need more people not afraid

[00:17:02] to say what Jeff said.

[00:17:03] Thank you, Jeff.

[00:17:05] This was right after Teoscar signed.

[00:17:08] It was.

[00:17:09] Yeah.

[00:17:09] Would you like me to read

[00:17:10] the word for word of the tweet from Passan?

[00:17:13] Sure thing.

[00:17:13] So just the context,

[00:17:14] Teoscar Hernandez signed with the Dodgers

[00:17:16] a few days ago,

[00:17:18] three years, $66 million.

[00:17:20] And people were like,

[00:17:21] oh, how can the Dodgers keep doing this?

[00:17:23] How do they?

[00:17:23] Oh, and more money was deferred in that contract,

[00:17:25] which is just the most hilarious thing ever

[00:17:27] that the Dodgers are just like,

[00:17:29] yeah, we'll worry about that in the future.

[00:17:30] No big deal.

[00:17:31] So Teoscar signed a new deal.

[00:17:34] People were talking about it.

[00:17:36] And Passan said,

[00:17:37] he said,

[00:17:39] the Los Angeles Dodgers are a machine.

[00:17:42] Not only do they print cash,

[00:17:44] their willingness to spend it

[00:17:45] in pursuit of winning is unmatched.

[00:17:48] They put their money where their mouth is.

[00:17:50] And then he goes for the kill, Jeff Passan.

[00:17:53] Others could benefit greatly

[00:17:55] from the same approach.

[00:17:56] They choose not to.

[00:18:00] Wah.

[00:18:01] Wah.

[00:18:02] Wah.

[00:18:03] Wah.

[00:18:04] So who is he talking about, Lyle?

[00:18:06] Oh, it's tough to say.

[00:18:08] It's tough to say

[00:18:09] who he could be really just closing his eyes,

[00:18:12] envisioning as he types out that tweet.

[00:18:14] It is real tough to say.

[00:18:17] You know,

[00:18:17] there's a few teams he could be rattling off there.

[00:18:20] He could be talking about the Red Sox.

[00:18:23] He could be talking about the Cubs.

[00:18:25] He could be talking about the A's

[00:18:26] who moved out of a major market

[00:18:28] just so they didn't have to spend money.

[00:18:30] But,

[00:18:32] within that conglomerate

[00:18:33] is absolutely 150%

[00:18:37] the Seattle Mariners.

[00:18:41] Thank you, Jeff.

[00:18:42] Thank you, Jeff.

[00:18:44] Listen,

[00:18:45] let's say this.

[00:18:47] There was some pushback to Passan

[00:18:49] about this tweet

[00:18:49] from some deranged fans, I guess,

[00:18:52] which I don't know

[00:18:53] how any fans out there

[00:18:55] are defending owners and billionaires.

[00:18:58] Like, that's not how fandom works.

[00:19:00] You don't defend your owners.

[00:19:01] I mean,

[00:19:02] not unless you're the Dodgers

[00:19:03] and they do amazing,

[00:19:05] amazing things

[00:19:06] to satisfy their fan base

[00:19:08] and,

[00:19:09] like Passan said,

[00:19:10] go all out to win.

[00:19:11] Not unless you're the Phillies.

[00:19:12] Not unless you're the Mets.

[00:19:14] Not unless you're teams like that.

[00:19:16] Like,

[00:19:17] who are these people out there

[00:19:19] trying to defend owners?

[00:19:22] That's number one.

[00:19:24] So, yeah.

[00:19:24] So, there was a lot of people

[00:19:25] who were like,

[00:19:26] well, not every team can do this, Jeff.

[00:19:28] So, yeah.

[00:19:28] Yeah, right.

[00:19:29] And that's what I was going to get to.

[00:19:30] And we can hash this out here.

[00:19:33] What I was going to say is,

[00:19:34] can every team spend like the Dodgers?

[00:19:36] Of course not.

[00:19:38] Should teams be putting out

[00:19:40] a made-up,

[00:19:41] self-imposed,

[00:19:42] $15 million budget

[00:19:43] when they're in a contention window?

[00:19:45] No.

[00:19:46] That's what Passan's saying.

[00:19:48] Jeff Passan's not telling the Mariners

[00:19:49] to go spend like the Dodgers.

[00:19:50] He wouldn't say no if they did.

[00:19:52] We certainly wouldn't say no if they did.

[00:19:53] Nobody in this Mariners fan base would.

[00:19:56] But,

[00:19:57] to do what they are currently doing

[00:19:59] is what Jeff Passan

[00:20:00] is calling out

[00:20:01] what we've been calling out forever,

[00:20:02] what this entire fan base

[00:20:03] has been calling out.

[00:20:05] Stop operating like this.

[00:20:07] It's a joke.

[00:20:10] So, let's...

[00:20:12] I want to see how I want to go about this.

[00:20:15] So, Jeff, yes.

[00:20:16] To all of your points,

[00:20:18] the Mariners are 100% in the top five,

[00:20:21] if not the top two,

[00:20:22] if not number one

[00:20:23] of what Jeff Passan is talking about

[00:20:25] here in this very tweet.

[00:20:26] And,

[00:20:27] very well should be.

[00:20:28] If you're contending,

[00:20:29] you should be trying.

[00:20:30] If you're rebuilding,

[00:20:31] I don't think anyone cares

[00:20:32] whether or not you're spending

[00:20:33] or wasting money or not.

[00:20:34] When you're winning,

[00:20:35] and especially when you're coming up short

[00:20:37] in the way the Mariners have,

[00:20:38] and a big reason of it

[00:20:39] is that you just don't have enough

[00:20:41] invested in your roster

[00:20:42] in terms of everyday players

[00:20:44] and consistency

[00:20:45] and da-da-da-da-da-da-da.

[00:20:47] Absolutely applies.

[00:20:48] So, here's where the Mariners

[00:20:50] and the Dodgers are different.

[00:20:51] The Dodgers are owned

[00:20:52] by a multi-billion dollar

[00:20:54] investment firm, essentially.

[00:20:56] They are worth,

[00:20:58] I think,

[00:20:58] hundreds of billions of dollars,

[00:21:00] that investment group.

[00:21:02] So, yeah,

[00:21:03] Mariners are not on the same footing there.

[00:21:05] Their television deal

[00:21:06] is worth $8.3 billion.

[00:21:11] Do you want me to repeat that number?

[00:21:13] $8.3 billion.

[00:21:16] They make, on average,

[00:21:17] I think,

[00:21:18] from their television deal,

[00:21:20] $250 million a year?

[00:21:24] So,

[00:21:24] not every team can match that.

[00:21:26] And that's 100% true.

[00:21:29] Yeah.

[00:21:30] But,

[00:21:31] as we've talked about a couple times,

[00:21:34] just because you don't make the money

[00:21:35] doesn't mean you cannot acquire the money.

[00:21:37] The Padres went in an all-in chase

[00:21:40] for a World Series

[00:21:41] in the last few years.

[00:21:42] They didn't have the same revenue

[00:21:44] as the Dodgers.

[00:21:46] It's been clearly noted.

[00:21:48] And we've seen the fallout

[00:21:49] from what has happened

[00:21:50] with the Padres,

[00:21:51] how much money they had to borrow

[00:21:53] just to finance

[00:21:54] some of the payroll

[00:21:55] they've had on their roster.

[00:21:56] But when push came to shove,

[00:21:58] they pushed all their chips in

[00:22:00] for a couple of seasons.

[00:22:01] And,

[00:22:02] they made it all the way

[00:22:03] to the NLCS.

[00:22:04] A couple different things

[00:22:05] go their way.

[00:22:06] They could have ended up

[00:22:07] in the World Series

[00:22:08] competing for that trophy.

[00:22:10] didn't end up happening,

[00:22:12] but they gave themselves a chance.

[00:22:14] I think what people like Passan

[00:22:16] are saying is that

[00:22:17] because you put these restrictions

[00:22:20] on yourself,

[00:22:21] you're not giving yourself a chance.

[00:22:23] You're not trying to force the issue.

[00:22:25] You're trying to luck into the issue,

[00:22:27] which is essentially

[00:22:28] what the Mariners are doing right now.

[00:22:29] They're probably hoping

[00:22:31] their roster luckily

[00:22:32] comes all together at once

[00:22:34] and has an amazing season

[00:22:35] and goes on a run

[00:22:36] to the American League

[00:22:36] Championship Series.

[00:22:38] What is not sustainable

[00:22:40] is luck.

[00:22:41] And a team that has been

[00:22:42] about as unlucky

[00:22:43] as any franchise

[00:22:44] in Major League Baseball

[00:22:45] should not be relying

[00:22:47] on that said metric.

[00:22:48] No.

[00:22:49] Seriously.

[00:22:50] No.

[00:22:51] Here's the difference.

[00:22:53] Is anybody,

[00:22:54] Passan included,

[00:22:55] saying,

[00:22:55] the Mariners,

[00:22:56] given their revenue

[00:22:59] and what their revenue

[00:23:00] says that they make,

[00:23:01] is anybody saying,

[00:23:03] next offseason,

[00:23:04] they need to go out

[00:23:05] and give Shohei $700 million?

[00:23:06] Well,

[00:23:06] they should have done that,

[00:23:07] but I'm going to rattle off

[00:23:09] a list of names here.

[00:23:10] You give $700 million to Shohei

[00:23:12] and then $325 million to Yamamoto.

[00:23:13] Then you trade for

[00:23:14] and give Glassnow a big extension.

[00:23:15] Then you bring back Tay Oscar

[00:23:16] and then you sign Blake Snell

[00:23:17] and then you've got Mookie on the books.

[00:23:19] You've got Freddie Freeman

[00:23:20] on the books.

[00:23:20] You've got everybody on the books.

[00:23:22] Is anybody saying

[00:23:25] that's the expectation

[00:23:26] for every team in Major League Baseball,

[00:23:28] the Mariners included?

[00:23:29] No.

[00:23:30] But let's highlight this again.

[00:23:32] When David Sampson was on with us,

[00:23:34] right?

[00:23:34] What did he say?

[00:23:36] He said,

[00:23:36] what I was taught by Bud Selig

[00:23:38] was if your payroll

[00:23:40] gets to 50% of your revenue,

[00:23:43] that's when you start to get

[00:23:44] in the murky area

[00:23:45] of losing money.

[00:23:47] So,

[00:23:48] to use that metric,

[00:23:50] and by the way,

[00:23:51] this isn't us sitting here saying,

[00:23:52] oh,

[00:23:53] listen to what this blogger said.

[00:23:55] Listen to what this media person said.

[00:23:57] Listen to what this YouTuber said.

[00:23:58] No.

[00:23:59] This is somebody in David Sampson

[00:24:01] who used to be the president

[00:24:02] of a baseball team

[00:24:03] and sit in ownership meetings

[00:24:04] then say to us,

[00:24:06] here's what the commissioner

[00:24:07] of baseball said to me.

[00:24:09] That is as reliable a source

[00:24:12] as you could possibly cook up here

[00:24:15] in terms of,

[00:24:16] here is reliable information.

[00:24:18] This is the former commissioner

[00:24:19] of baseball uttering these words.

[00:24:21] You think he doesn't know?

[00:24:22] Oh,

[00:24:23] he knows.

[00:24:24] He says,

[00:24:25] you get to 50%,

[00:24:26] that's when you start

[00:24:27] to potentially lose money.

[00:24:28] I'm not saying those Forbes lists

[00:24:30] are exactly right,

[00:24:32] but they cannot beam

[00:24:34] hundreds of millions of dollars off.

[00:24:37] And what Forbes said is

[00:24:38] the Mariners racked in

[00:24:40] nearly $400 million,

[00:24:42] $395 million.

[00:24:44] So,

[00:24:44] if their payroll

[00:24:46] was 50% of that,

[00:24:48] or we can even take it down

[00:24:49] a little bit

[00:24:50] because 50% is 197,

[00:24:51] if they were at 190,

[00:24:52] they were at 185,

[00:24:54] that puts them

[00:24:55] in the 11 to 13 range,

[00:24:58] which is exactly

[00:24:59] what people are asking.

[00:25:00] Or just think about

[00:25:01] how different the offseason

[00:25:02] would be

[00:25:03] if it was $175 million.

[00:25:06] Yes.

[00:25:07] Pretty immensely different.

[00:25:08] Yeah,

[00:25:08] with $175 million

[00:25:10] instead of

[00:25:11] the 150 to 155

[00:25:13] they're working with

[00:25:13] right now,

[00:25:15] you could go

[00:25:16] and

[00:25:18] sign

[00:25:19] Christian Walker

[00:25:21] and you trade for Brandon Lau

[00:25:22] and then you figure out

[00:25:23] third base.

[00:25:25] Great.

[00:25:26] That's it.

[00:25:26] People would have been

[00:25:28] happy with that offseason.

[00:25:29] People would have been

[00:25:30] more than thrilled.

[00:25:31] I'm not saying people

[00:25:32] would look at this team

[00:25:33] and say

[00:25:33] they won the offseason,

[00:25:35] now they're the

[00:25:36] World Series favorites,

[00:25:37] but they would have been

[00:25:38] set up in a very,

[00:25:39] very good position

[00:25:40] to be competitive

[00:25:40] in 2025.

[00:25:42] People would have come

[00:25:43] into the season excited

[00:25:44] and you know what?

[00:25:45] They still can.

[00:25:46] This offseason

[00:25:47] is not totally over,

[00:25:49] but

[00:25:50] things like this

[00:25:51] is what Jeff Passon's saying.

[00:25:52] If you were to ask Jeff

[00:25:53] what he means

[00:25:54] for each specific team

[00:25:55] by that

[00:25:57] tweet,

[00:25:58] by what he said,

[00:25:59] he'd probably give you

[00:26:00] a slightly different answer

[00:26:01] for every franchise

[00:26:02] based on where they're at

[00:26:04] revenue wise.

[00:26:05] And for the Mariners,

[00:26:06] I bet you he'd say

[00:26:06] something similar

[00:26:07] to what we're saying.

[00:26:09] Unfortunately,

[00:26:11] Jeff does not own

[00:26:12] the Seattle Mariners.

[00:26:13] Maybe he should.

[00:26:14] Well,

[00:26:15] he makes a lot of money

[00:26:16] at ESPN,

[00:26:16] so eventually

[00:26:17] he's got to make

[00:26:17] enough money

[00:26:19] to at least buy it.

[00:26:20] Get himself on the board.

[00:26:21] Great.

[00:26:23] Be the voice of reason,

[00:26:24] Passon.

[00:26:24] We need you.

[00:26:25] We need you.

[00:26:26] How can we sales pitch

[00:26:27] you to do it?

[00:26:28] Think of it as a charity

[00:26:29] project, buddy.

[00:26:30] Think about how many people,

[00:26:31] think about how many people

[00:26:32] you could bring joy to

[00:26:33] by being a,

[00:26:35] being on that board,

[00:26:36] sitting in these meetings

[00:26:37] and being,

[00:26:38] and just like

[00:26:39] ripping these people apart.

[00:26:41] It's like

[00:26:41] you,

[00:26:48] illusional people.

[00:26:49] This is not how you operate.

[00:26:51] Well,

[00:26:52] let's hope we'll cross our fingers.

[00:26:53] We'll hold out hope

[00:26:54] and we'll,

[00:26:54] we'll hope this message

[00:26:55] gets to Jeff Passon

[00:26:56] so we can start thinking

[00:26:57] about his,

[00:26:57] his post news breaking days

[00:26:59] where he thinks about

[00:27:00] reviving the worst,

[00:27:01] one of the worst franchises

[00:27:02] in American sports.

[00:27:03] So think about that,

[00:27:05] Jeff,

[00:27:06] please.

[00:27:06] And thank you.

[00:27:07] Right.

[00:27:08] But he's right.

[00:27:08] Just to wrap this up.

[00:27:09] He's right.

[00:27:10] Again,

[00:27:11] not everybody can spend

[00:27:12] like the Dodgers,

[00:27:13] but everybody could do

[00:27:13] significant,

[00:27:14] like the teams he's talking

[00:27:15] about could be doing

[00:27:16] significantly more than what

[00:27:17] they're doing.

[00:27:18] If you even want to spend

[00:27:18] 60 seconds away from the

[00:27:20] Mariners,

[00:27:21] when he,

[00:27:21] if he's talking about

[00:27:22] the Red Sox,

[00:27:23] they should be spending

[00:27:24] way more market like

[00:27:25] Boston shouldn't be 11th

[00:27:26] to 12th in major league

[00:27:28] baseball payroll Cubs

[00:27:29] trade away the whole

[00:27:30] core of your team

[00:27:31] instead of trying to

[00:27:32] keep it together

[00:27:33] and haven't done much

[00:27:33] sense in terms of

[00:27:34] investing in your roster

[00:27:35] market like Chicago

[00:27:37] haven't done it.

[00:27:38] So there's teams that

[00:27:39] should be doing a lot

[00:27:40] more.

[00:27:41] Don't even,

[00:27:41] don't even get us

[00:27:41] started on teams like

[00:27:42] the A's,

[00:27:43] the pirates,

[00:27:43] et cetera.

[00:27:44] Yeah.

[00:27:44] But the Mariners,

[00:27:46] no one's asking you

[00:27:47] to be third in payroll

[00:27:48] for the,

[00:27:49] like for the love of

[00:27:51] God,

[00:27:52] get to 11th or 12th

[00:27:53] because it would give

[00:27:54] you so much more

[00:27:56] flexibility to make

[00:27:58] actual impact moves to

[00:27:59] this team.

[00:28:00] All right.

[00:28:01] Before we get to Luke

[00:28:01] Arkins,

[00:28:02] let's take a quick pause

[00:28:03] here.

[00:28:03] We want to talk to you

[00:28:04] guys about our awesome

[00:28:05] friends over at Pagotch's

[00:28:06] Pub 85.

[00:28:07] That's over in Kirkland.

[00:28:09] You guys know,

[00:28:10] you've heard us say it,

[00:28:11] we'll continue to say it,

[00:28:13] such an awesome place to

[00:28:14] go hang out with your

[00:28:14] friends,

[00:28:15] have some great food,

[00:28:16] play some games,

[00:28:17] watch sports.

[00:28:18] Hey,

[00:28:18] college football playoff

[00:28:19] coming up here on New

[00:28:20] Year's Day.

[00:28:21] NFL playoffs right around

[00:28:22] the corner.

[00:28:23] Oh,

[00:28:23] forks up.

[00:28:24] Go Devils.

[00:28:25] Yeah.

[00:28:25] They're going to win.

[00:28:27] Anyway,

[00:28:28] you want an awesome spot

[00:28:29] to go watch some games

[00:28:29] and hang out with your

[00:28:30] friends,

[00:28:30] head over there.

[00:28:31] And if you go during

[00:28:32] happy hour,

[00:28:33] those drink specials

[00:28:35] are as good as you'll

[00:28:36] find.

[00:28:36] Three and four dollars,

[00:28:37] you guys,

[00:28:37] two to six p.m.,

[00:28:38] three and four dollar

[00:28:39] happy hour drinks.

[00:28:40] All of that,

[00:28:41] great food,

[00:28:42] games,

[00:28:43] sports watching,

[00:28:45] hanging out with your

[00:28:45] friends,

[00:28:46] all of that is over at

[00:28:47] Pagotch's Pub 85 in

[00:28:49] Kirkland.

[00:28:50] We had a good chat with

[00:28:51] Luke Arkins earlier

[00:28:52] today,

[00:28:53] the creator of the

[00:28:55] Mariners consigliere

[00:28:56] newsletter.

[00:28:57] You find him on

[00:28:58] Twitter.

[00:28:59] He gives out some of

[00:29:00] the most informational

[00:29:01] and interesting

[00:29:03] Mariners articles,

[00:29:04] Mariners stats

[00:29:05] throughout the season

[00:29:06] and throughout the

[00:29:06] offseason as well.

[00:29:08] Lau and I have read

[00:29:08] his stuff for a while,

[00:29:09] followed him on

[00:29:10] Twitter for a while.

[00:29:11] He usually is right

[00:29:13] because as he

[00:29:14] explained to us,

[00:29:15] loves to use numbers

[00:29:16] in his writing and

[00:29:17] his analysis to come

[00:29:19] to conclusions on

[00:29:20] players and thought

[00:29:21] he'd be a really

[00:29:22] interesting person to

[00:29:23] have on.

[00:29:23] And as I've said,

[00:29:26] we always look for

[00:29:26] new people to have

[00:29:27] on.

[00:29:28] And now that we're

[00:29:28] almost 200 episodes

[00:29:30] into this,

[00:29:31] I feel like we've had

[00:29:31] a good chunk of

[00:29:32] people on.

[00:29:33] Luke has not been one

[00:29:34] of those people yet,

[00:29:34] so it's good to get

[00:29:35] him on for the first

[00:29:36] time.

[00:29:36] Yeah,

[00:29:37] he was great.

[00:29:38] Just like how we

[00:29:39] followed Jason Churchill

[00:29:40] forever,

[00:29:40] and now Jason's been

[00:29:42] a recurring guest

[00:29:43] to the podcast.

[00:29:44] Similar with Luke,

[00:29:45] when TJ and I

[00:29:47] really,

[00:29:47] really got into

[00:29:48] baseball,

[00:29:48] and well,

[00:29:49] we got into baseball

[00:29:50] when we were the

[00:29:51] youngest of ages,

[00:29:52] but once we got on

[00:29:52] Twitter and started

[00:29:54] using Twitter to learn

[00:29:55] even more about

[00:29:55] baseball,

[00:29:57] Luke was absolutely

[00:29:58] one of the people we

[00:29:59] followed at a very,

[00:30:00] very early point,

[00:30:01] and we followed him

[00:30:02] ever since.

[00:30:03] We love all his work,

[00:30:04] he's really smart,

[00:30:04] and we got a chance to

[00:30:05] have him on the podcast,

[00:30:06] and it was great.

[00:30:07] So,

[00:30:08] hopefully you guys

[00:30:08] enjoy the interview

[00:30:09] because he really

[00:30:10] knows his stuff,

[00:30:11] it was interesting to

[00:30:12] have a new voice,

[00:30:14] and yeah,

[00:30:14] I continue to always

[00:30:16] really value what he

[00:30:18] says because he knows

[00:30:19] what he's talking

[00:30:19] about.

[00:30:20] So,

[00:30:21] with that,

[00:30:21] we won't keep you

[00:30:22] any longer,

[00:30:22] let's get you to the

[00:30:23] interview with Luke

[00:30:24] Arkins.

[00:30:28] Alright,

[00:30:28] we've got Luke

[00:30:29] Arkins on with us,

[00:30:30] he is the founder

[00:30:31] and writer of

[00:30:32] Mariners Consigliere,

[00:30:34] you can find that

[00:30:34] over on Substack,

[00:30:35] he also does a ton

[00:30:36] of great work over

[00:30:37] on Twitter,

[00:30:38] where you can find

[00:30:39] him everywhere,

[00:30:39] talking Mariners,

[00:30:41] breaking down

[00:30:43] analytics,

[00:30:44] etc.,

[00:30:44] just talking baseball

[00:30:45] in general,

[00:30:46] he's been an awesome

[00:30:47] follow for years,

[00:30:48] TJ and I have

[00:30:48] certainly followed him

[00:30:49] forever.

[00:30:50] Luke,

[00:30:51] thanks so much

[00:30:51] for coming on,

[00:30:52] how has this

[00:30:53] offseason treated

[00:30:54] you so far

[00:30:55] on your end?

[00:30:57] Well,

[00:30:57] thanks for having

[00:30:58] me guys,

[00:30:58] it is a weird

[00:30:59] offseason,

[00:31:00] certainly for

[00:31:01] Jerry DiPoto

[00:31:01] during his time

[00:31:02] here,

[00:31:04] really inactive,

[00:31:05] I know that

[00:31:06] they like,

[00:31:07] the Mariners

[00:31:07] like to consider

[00:31:08] the trade deadline

[00:31:09] prior to the

[00:31:10] offseason as part

[00:31:11] of what they do

[00:31:12] in the offseason,

[00:31:13] so I guess you

[00:31:13] could look back

[00:31:14] and say,

[00:31:14] well,

[00:31:14] they picked up

[00:31:15] Randy Orozarena,

[00:31:17] of course,

[00:31:17] Justin Turner

[00:31:18] has left,

[00:31:18] but when you

[00:31:19] look at what

[00:31:20] they've done

[00:31:20] since the season

[00:31:21] end,

[00:31:21] it is really

[00:31:23] nothing other

[00:31:23] than Austin,

[00:31:25] what's his name,

[00:31:25] Austin Schenter

[00:31:26] or whatever his

[00:31:27] name is,

[00:31:27] Shelton,

[00:31:28] right?

[00:31:29] Yeah,

[00:31:29] Shenton from

[00:31:30] the race.

[00:31:31] the kid from

[00:31:32] Bellingham,

[00:31:32] right.

[00:31:33] So,

[00:31:34] yeah,

[00:31:34] it really is

[00:31:35] perplexing,

[00:31:36] I know they're

[00:31:37] kind of tight on

[00:31:37] money and all

[00:31:38] that,

[00:31:38] but it really is

[00:31:39] sort of a

[00:31:39] surprising

[00:31:41] situation,

[00:31:41] and perhaps

[00:31:42] maybe the market

[00:31:43] has changed

[00:31:44] through the years

[00:31:45] now with more

[00:31:46] teams being in

[00:31:47] the postseason

[00:31:48] hunt and later

[00:31:49] in the season,

[00:31:49] maybe just the

[00:31:50] way teams are

[00:31:50] going at

[00:31:52] arbitration,

[00:31:52] qualifying offer,

[00:31:53] and all the other

[00:31:54] things that lead

[00:31:55] up to trades,

[00:31:56] maybe that's part

[00:31:57] of why it's so

[00:31:58] slow.

[00:31:58] Perhaps it also

[00:31:59] has to do

[00:32:00] with what the

[00:32:01] team is looking

[00:32:02] for and what

[00:32:02] they're not

[00:32:03] willing to give

[00:32:03] up.

[00:32:04] It doesn't feel

[00:32:05] like,

[00:32:05] though,

[00:32:06] it's just money

[00:32:06] at this point,

[00:32:07] which is causing

[00:32:08] an action.

[00:32:09] I mean,

[00:32:09] you detailed a

[00:32:10] couple of reasons

[00:32:11] there,

[00:32:12] but they've

[00:32:13] shown they have

[00:32:13] put offers out

[00:32:14] there.

[00:32:15] I mean,

[00:32:15] it was reported

[00:32:15] they offered

[00:32:16] Carlos Santana.

[00:32:17] It's been shown

[00:32:18] they've at least

[00:32:18] talked to other

[00:32:19] teams about

[00:32:20] Luis Castillo,

[00:32:21] and yet somehow

[00:32:22] there still hasn't

[00:32:24] been a move.

[00:32:24] Is there a

[00:32:26] reason you feel

[00:32:27] like that is

[00:32:28] pressing out

[00:32:29] among the others

[00:32:30] as the reason

[00:32:32] they're not

[00:32:32] doing anything?

[00:32:34] Well,

[00:32:34] I think Santana

[00:32:35] is probably just

[00:32:36] a guy near the

[00:32:37] end of his

[00:32:38] career wants to

[00:32:39] go back to

[00:32:39] where he started.

[00:32:40] I don't think

[00:32:41] it really had

[00:32:42] anything to do

[00:32:42] with the Mariners

[00:32:43] per se.

[00:32:45] I do think

[00:32:46] money is part

[00:32:46] of it.

[00:32:47] I mean,

[00:32:47] when you look

[00:32:47] back at last

[00:32:48] offseason,

[00:32:49] I always point

[00:32:50] to the Mitch

[00:32:50] Hanager,

[00:32:51] Robbie Ray

[00:32:52] trade.

[00:32:52] I mean,

[00:32:53] why would you

[00:32:53] trade Robbie

[00:32:54] Ray?

[00:32:54] Okay,

[00:32:55] he's down for

[00:32:55] the year,

[00:32:56] so what?

[00:32:57] I mean,

[00:32:58] would the Mets

[00:32:58] or the Yankees

[00:32:59] or Dodgers

[00:32:59] trade him?

[00:33:00] Of course not.

[00:33:00] They would

[00:33:01] keep him so

[00:33:02] that if he

[00:33:02] comes back late

[00:33:03] in the season,

[00:33:04] you have that

[00:33:05] guy.

[00:33:05] And if not,

[00:33:06] then you'll

[00:33:06] have him for

[00:33:07] seasons afterwards.

[00:33:07] So why

[00:33:08] would you

[00:33:08] trade him?

[00:33:09] But because

[00:33:10] they were so

[00:33:10] tight on money,

[00:33:11] they bring back

[00:33:13] an aging player

[00:33:14] who they're

[00:33:14] familiar with

[00:33:15] and who

[00:33:16] doesn't perform.

[00:33:17] And now they're

[00:33:18] hamstrung by his

[00:33:19] salary this year,

[00:33:20] despite all the

[00:33:20] savings of letting

[00:33:21] Robbie Ray go

[00:33:22] for,

[00:33:23] you know,

[00:33:24] like on paper,

[00:33:25] yeah,

[00:33:25] they save money.

[00:33:26] But when you get

[00:33:26] into the next

[00:33:28] offseason,

[00:33:29] they don't have

[00:33:30] money.

[00:33:31] So it's really,

[00:33:33] I think really

[00:33:34] money is a lot

[00:33:34] of what is

[00:33:35] driving it.

[00:33:36] I think when

[00:33:37] you look at

[00:33:37] the rumor that

[00:33:38] the Red Sox

[00:33:39] were interested

[00:33:40] in Castillo,

[00:33:41] but they wanted

[00:33:43] to send

[00:33:43] Ushida back,

[00:33:44] I think it

[00:33:44] really just

[00:33:45] comes down

[00:33:45] to the dollars

[00:33:46] and cents.

[00:33:46] The Mariners

[00:33:47] don't want to

[00:33:47] pick up a guy

[00:33:48] who's pretty

[00:33:48] much a DH

[00:33:49] who's making,

[00:33:50] I think,

[00:33:50] $18 million a

[00:33:51] year.

[00:33:52] So the

[00:33:53] Mariners

[00:33:53] wouldn't gain

[00:33:54] the savings

[00:33:55] that they would

[00:33:56] if they could

[00:33:57] just push

[00:33:57] Castillo off

[00:33:59] and not

[00:34:00] take much

[00:34:01] money back.

[00:34:03] So,

[00:34:04] actually,

[00:34:04] you make a good

[00:34:05] point there,

[00:34:06] Luke,

[00:34:06] about Robbie

[00:34:06] Ray.

[00:34:07] So let me

[00:34:07] circle back

[00:34:08] to that here.

[00:34:09] And obviously,

[00:34:10] you can play

[00:34:10] the whole domino

[00:34:11] effect game

[00:34:12] if you want

[00:34:12] to and say,

[00:34:13] well,

[00:34:13] if you don't

[00:34:14] trade Robbie

[00:34:14] Ray,

[00:34:15] is Brian Wu

[00:34:15] as far along?

[00:34:16] Is Bryce Miller

[00:34:17] far along?

[00:34:17] People can

[00:34:18] play that

[00:34:18] game,

[00:34:18] sure.

[00:34:19] But to your

[00:34:19] point,

[00:34:20] I think if

[00:34:21] the Mariners

[00:34:22] were in a

[00:34:22] position now

[00:34:22] where they

[00:34:23] still had Robbie

[00:34:24] Ray in the

[00:34:25] fold rather than

[00:34:26] Mitch Hanager,

[00:34:26] and they decided

[00:34:27] they needed to

[00:34:28] trade an arm,

[00:34:29] I think it's

[00:34:29] fair to say

[00:34:30] it would be

[00:34:30] easier to

[00:34:31] move Robbie

[00:34:32] Ray and get

[00:34:33] something back

[00:34:33] than it is

[00:34:34] to move Mitch

[00:34:35] Hanager,

[00:34:36] given how much

[00:34:37] teams are looking

[00:34:37] for starting

[00:34:38] pitching.

[00:34:38] Is that fair?

[00:34:39] Yeah,

[00:34:40] I believe so.

[00:34:41] Or they could

[00:34:41] trade one of

[00:34:42] the younger

[00:34:42] guys.

[00:34:44] They'd have

[00:34:45] options.

[00:34:45] They could

[00:34:45] trade anybody

[00:34:46] they'd want.

[00:34:47] They'd be

[00:34:48] very deep.

[00:34:49] And you're

[00:34:50] right.

[00:34:50] They would

[00:34:50] have probably

[00:34:51] Wu,

[00:34:51] would have

[00:34:52] been brought

[00:34:52] along slower

[00:34:55] because they've

[00:34:55] been watching

[00:34:56] his innings

[00:34:56] anyway,

[00:34:57] and he has

[00:34:58] an injury

[00:34:58] history and

[00:34:59] all that.

[00:34:59] So sure.

[00:35:01] But yeah,

[00:35:02] I just understand

[00:35:04] why they traded

[00:35:04] Robbie Ray.

[00:35:05] Of all the

[00:35:06] trades they made,

[00:35:06] all the moves

[00:35:07] they made last

[00:35:07] offseason,

[00:35:08] that is the

[00:35:08] one that just

[00:35:09] didn't make

[00:35:10] any sense to

[00:35:10] me.

[00:35:11] It's just not

[00:35:11] how you operate.

[00:35:13] And you wouldn't

[00:35:14] have to go into

[00:35:14] this offseason

[00:35:15] saying that trading

[00:35:16] a starting pitcher

[00:35:16] is plan Z and

[00:35:17] then within a

[00:35:19] month and a

[00:35:19] half,

[00:35:20] a month,

[00:35:20] it seems like

[00:35:21] go in and

[00:35:22] start executing

[00:35:23] plan Z without

[00:35:24] the full

[00:35:25] offseason even

[00:35:26] really turning

[00:35:27] over in and

[00:35:28] of itself.

[00:35:29] So in terms

[00:35:30] of what they

[00:35:31] have,

[00:35:31] they're really

[00:35:32] limiting

[00:35:32] themselves option

[00:35:33] wise now.

[00:35:34] They would have

[00:35:35] provided themselves

[00:35:36] seriously with a

[00:35:37] lot more

[00:35:37] options if

[00:35:39] Robbie was

[00:35:42] still on the

[00:35:43] roster at this

[00:35:44] time or at

[00:35:45] least was at the

[00:35:45] beginning of the

[00:35:46] offseason and they

[00:35:47] could have made

[00:35:47] an acquisition.

[00:35:48] I'm curious,

[00:35:49] Luke,

[00:35:49] your thoughts

[00:35:49] about the

[00:35:51] package with the

[00:35:52] Red Sox.

[00:35:53] when it comes to

[00:35:54] Kassas and Yoshida

[00:35:55] and we say,

[00:35:56] well,

[00:35:56] the Mariners

[00:35:56] wouldn't have

[00:35:57] saved enough

[00:35:58] money on that

[00:35:58] deal for them

[00:35:59] wanting to do it.

[00:36:00] But if you get

[00:36:01] two bats back

[00:36:02] though and solve

[00:36:03] some of your

[00:36:03] issues,

[00:36:04] the savings I

[00:36:05] feel like

[00:36:07] should be less

[00:36:08] of an issue at

[00:36:09] that point because

[00:36:10] you're achieving

[00:36:11] what you're

[00:36:11] trying to do,

[00:36:12] which is upgrade

[00:36:13] the team,

[00:36:13] and that will,

[00:36:15] as they've said,

[00:36:15] cost money to

[00:36:16] do so and

[00:36:17] hence why they've

[00:36:17] set a budget for

[00:36:18] themselves.

[00:36:21] So I'm

[00:36:23] curious to get

[00:36:24] your take on

[00:36:24] why they

[00:36:24] wouldn't do

[00:36:25] that.

[00:36:27] Well,

[00:36:27] it may have

[00:36:27] to do with

[00:36:29] Yoshida's a

[00:36:29] DH.

[00:36:30] He's a

[00:36:30] terrible,

[00:36:31] at least the

[00:36:32] metrics say he's

[00:36:32] a terrible

[00:36:33] outfielder.

[00:36:33] So he's your

[00:36:34] DH.

[00:36:35] He's your

[00:36:35] everyday DH.

[00:36:36] So now what

[00:36:36] do you do

[00:36:36] with Mitch

[00:36:37] Hanager?

[00:36:37] What do you

[00:36:38] do with

[00:36:38] Mitch

[00:36:38] Garber?

[00:36:40] And the

[00:36:40] $30 million

[00:36:41] or so that

[00:36:42] they're making.

[00:36:43] So it doesn't

[00:36:44] really clear

[00:36:45] enough payroll

[00:36:46] per se.

[00:36:47] That is

[00:36:48] probably part

[00:36:49] of it.

[00:36:49] And I

[00:36:50] think we

[00:36:51] probably would

[00:36:51] all agree

[00:36:52] moving Mitch

[00:36:53] Hanager would

[00:36:54] be difficult.

[00:36:55] Moving Mitch

[00:36:56] Garber would

[00:36:56] be difficult.

[00:36:57] He's probably

[00:36:57] less difficult

[00:36:58] but still

[00:36:58] difficult to

[00:36:59] move.

[00:37:00] That's what

[00:37:01] I'm assuming

[00:37:01] is what's

[00:37:02] going on.

[00:37:05] Yeah,

[00:37:05] and that's

[00:37:06] probably right.

[00:37:06] I guess what

[00:37:07] we've talked

[00:37:08] about is if you

[00:37:08] were going to

[00:37:09] move Hanager,

[00:37:09] you might have

[00:37:10] to attach a

[00:37:10] prospect to a

[00:37:11] team that's

[00:37:11] looking for

[00:37:12] prospects.

[00:37:12] But even

[00:37:13] then, it's

[00:37:13] no slam dunk,

[00:37:14] right?

[00:37:15] Right,

[00:37:16] and what does

[00:37:16] that get you?

[00:37:17] I guess,

[00:37:18] yeah,

[00:37:18] now you can

[00:37:18] go acquire

[00:37:19] somebody else,

[00:37:20] but you're

[00:37:20] probably going

[00:37:20] to have to

[00:37:20] give up

[00:37:21] some prospects.

[00:37:22] Part of the

[00:37:22] Mariners'

[00:37:23] challenge is

[00:37:23] they don't

[00:37:23] have a lot

[00:37:24] of major league

[00:37:24] talent they

[00:37:24] can move.

[00:37:25] When you look

[00:37:26] around,

[00:37:26] they have a

[00:37:28] finite number

[00:37:29] of guys that

[00:37:30] make up their

[00:37:31] core for this

[00:37:32] coming season,

[00:37:33] and then,

[00:37:34] you know,

[00:37:35] what else?

[00:37:35] They don't

[00:37:35] have a lot

[00:37:36] of access

[00:37:36] that anybody

[00:37:37] would want.

[00:37:37] I mean,

[00:37:37] I don't think

[00:37:38] anybody's

[00:37:39] jumping over

[00:37:39] a barrel to

[00:37:40] get Dylan

[00:37:40] Moore,

[00:37:42] right?

[00:37:42] I mean,

[00:37:43] or Mitch

[00:37:43] Garver,

[00:37:44] or Mitch

[00:37:44] Hanager.

[00:37:46] Do you want

[00:37:46] to move

[00:37:47] Rosarena?

[00:37:48] Well,

[00:37:48] you can,

[00:37:49] but you

[00:37:49] create a hole

[00:37:50] in doing so,

[00:37:50] so you're

[00:37:51] not making

[00:37:51] yourself better

[00:37:52] by doing

[00:37:53] that.

[00:37:54] You know,

[00:37:55] I mean,

[00:37:55] it's just

[00:37:55] when you

[00:37:55] look around,

[00:37:56] who would

[00:37:56] you trade?

[00:37:57] That's part

[00:37:58] of the

[00:37:58] problem.

[00:37:59] Teams

[00:37:59] don't want

[00:37:59] to necessarily

[00:38:00] want prospects

[00:38:01] if they're

[00:38:02] trying to

[00:38:02] compete this

[00:38:03] year.

[00:38:03] Even if

[00:38:04] you can

[00:38:04] give them

[00:38:04] somebody that

[00:38:05] can work

[00:38:05] off their

[00:38:05] bench,

[00:38:06] that's quality

[00:38:06] off the

[00:38:07] bench,

[00:38:07] perhaps that

[00:38:08] would work,

[00:38:08] a backup

[00:38:09] catcher,

[00:38:10] a fourth

[00:38:11] outfield,

[00:38:11] or something,

[00:38:12] but what

[00:38:12] would the

[00:38:12] Mariners

[00:38:13] give up?

[00:38:15] And you

[00:38:16] highlighted it

[00:38:16] with Dylan

[00:38:17] Moore earlier

[00:38:18] this week on

[00:38:18] Twitter that

[00:38:20] he really,

[00:38:21] really has not

[00:38:22] hit right-handed

[00:38:22] pitching.

[00:38:23] Right,

[00:38:24] right.

[00:38:24] I don't know

[00:38:24] that,

[00:38:25] I mean,

[00:38:25] I like Dylan

[00:38:26] Moore,

[00:38:26] and my wife

[00:38:27] loved him.

[00:38:28] Oh,

[00:38:29] I love him.

[00:38:30] Yeah,

[00:38:30] I mean,

[00:38:30] she loved him,

[00:38:31] but he doesn't

[00:38:34] hit right-hand

[00:38:35] pitching well,

[00:38:36] he doesn't

[00:38:37] hit well in

[00:38:37] the ballpark,

[00:38:39] so,

[00:38:39] okay,

[00:38:40] like him

[00:38:43] playing every

[00:38:43] day,

[00:38:44] or being part

[00:38:45] of the solution

[00:38:45] at second

[00:38:46] base,

[00:38:47] and it's

[00:38:47] sort of

[00:38:47] funny,

[00:38:48] people say,

[00:38:48] or it's

[00:38:49] sort of

[00:38:50] pushed out

[00:38:50] there that

[00:38:51] Ryan Bliss

[00:38:52] and Dylan

[00:38:53] Moore could

[00:38:54] possibly form a

[00:38:55] combo at

[00:38:56] second base.

[00:38:57] Well,

[00:38:57] they're both

[00:38:57] right-handed,

[00:39:00] we don't know

[00:39:01] what Bliss

[00:39:01] is,

[00:39:03] I mean,

[00:39:04] he didn't

[00:39:05] perform very

[00:39:05] well in the

[00:39:06] very short

[00:39:06] sample he

[00:39:07] had this

[00:39:08] year,

[00:39:09] and we

[00:39:09] know what

[00:39:10] Dylan Moore

[00:39:10] is,

[00:39:10] he's a

[00:39:11] good utility

[00:39:12] player,

[00:39:12] he can

[00:39:13] play a

[00:39:13] lot of

[00:39:14] spots,

[00:39:14] he can

[00:39:15] fill in,

[00:39:15] he hits

[00:39:16] left-handed

[00:39:17] pitching well,

[00:39:17] and he hits

[00:39:18] better on the

[00:39:18] road,

[00:39:19] so how does

[00:39:20] that make

[00:39:20] up a good

[00:39:21] combo at

[00:39:21] second base?

[00:39:22] It's not,

[00:39:23] and it wouldn't

[00:39:23] be any better

[00:39:24] at third

[00:39:24] base with

[00:39:25] Dylan Moore

[00:39:25] if he's

[00:39:25] playing

[00:39:26] nearly every

[00:39:26] day,

[00:39:27] and as

[00:39:28] far as

[00:39:28] his defense,

[00:39:29] it's

[00:39:29] decent,

[00:39:30] but is

[00:39:31] it great?

[00:39:33] No,

[00:39:33] it's

[00:39:34] good.

[00:39:37] And he's

[00:39:38] 33,

[00:39:38] which doesn't

[00:39:39] help.

[00:39:40] Yeah.

[00:39:40] 33,

[00:39:41] 32,

[00:39:41] yeah,

[00:39:41] he's up

[00:39:41] there.

[00:39:42] Yeah,

[00:39:43] he's still

[00:39:43] very athletic

[00:39:44] though.

[00:39:45] Yeah,

[00:39:46] which is a

[00:39:47] good thing.

[00:39:48] Would you

[00:39:48] have been in

[00:39:48] on just a

[00:39:50] Luis Castillo

[00:39:51] for Tristan

[00:39:51] Casa swap?

[00:39:52] Like,

[00:39:52] would that

[00:39:53] have made

[00:39:53] sense to

[00:39:53] you?

[00:39:55] Oh,

[00:39:56] I don't

[00:39:56] know.

[00:39:57] That's a

[00:39:58] lot.

[00:39:59] I personally,

[00:39:59] I don't

[00:40:00] believe in

[00:40:01] trading starting

[00:40:01] pitchers.

[00:40:02] I know we're

[00:40:02] sitting around

[00:40:03] talking about

[00:40:03] it.

[00:40:03] I just

[00:40:04] don't

[00:40:04] believe in

[00:40:05] it.

[00:40:05] It's your

[00:40:06] strength.

[00:40:08] It would

[00:40:09] be difficult

[00:40:09] for me to

[00:40:10] see that

[00:40:11] trade because

[00:40:11] we don't

[00:40:12] know what

[00:40:12] Costas really

[00:40:13] is.

[00:40:14] He certainly

[00:40:14] has hit

[00:40:15] well.

[00:40:15] He's had

[00:40:16] some injury

[00:40:16] issues.

[00:40:17] He strikes

[00:40:18] out a lot.

[00:40:19] He's a

[00:40:20] work in

[00:40:20] progress.

[00:40:21] You're sort

[00:40:22] of using

[00:40:22] the hope

[00:40:22] theory there

[00:40:23] by going

[00:40:25] that way.

[00:40:27] Okay,

[00:40:27] so outline

[00:40:28] us this.

[00:40:29] You don't

[00:40:29] want to trade

[00:40:30] starting pitching

[00:40:30] and I'm

[00:40:31] totally in

[00:40:31] that boat.

[00:40:32] the Mariners

[00:40:32] should not

[00:40:32] trade from

[00:40:33] what is the

[00:40:34] best rotation

[00:40:34] in baseball,

[00:40:35] the backbone

[00:40:35] of their team.

[00:40:36] Just go find

[00:40:37] ways to improve

[00:40:37] the offense,

[00:40:38] whether it's

[00:40:38] trading prospects,

[00:40:39] whether it's

[00:40:40] finding some

[00:40:40] way to sign

[00:40:41] a guy or

[00:40:41] two,

[00:40:42] etc.

[00:40:43] If you

[00:40:43] were to

[00:40:44] outline the

[00:40:44] Luke Arkins

[00:40:45] plan for

[00:40:46] what's left

[00:40:47] this offseason

[00:40:48] and how the

[00:40:48] Mariners really

[00:40:49] upgrade this

[00:40:50] roster to the

[00:40:51] best of their

[00:40:52] ability,

[00:40:53] what moves

[00:40:54] would you make

[00:40:54] to say this

[00:40:56] team just got

[00:40:57] meaningfully

[00:40:57] better?

[00:41:00] Well,

[00:41:00] that's really

[00:41:01] hard because I

[00:41:01] have no money.

[00:41:03] All right.

[00:41:05] Let's sign

[00:41:06] one Soto.

[00:41:08] Yo,

[00:41:09] you can sign

[00:41:09] us right up

[00:41:10] for that.

[00:41:10] I said I'd

[00:41:11] give the guy

[00:41:11] a billion dollars

[00:41:12] but it's

[00:41:13] not my money.

[00:41:15] Anyway,

[00:41:16] let's do two

[00:41:17] plans.

[00:41:18] If you had

[00:41:18] money and

[00:41:19] if you have

[00:41:20] this $15

[00:41:20] million budget,

[00:41:22] what would

[00:41:23] you do

[00:41:23] with each

[00:41:24] of those

[00:41:25] resources?

[00:41:27] I don't know

[00:41:27] about specific

[00:41:28] names but I

[00:41:29] think the

[00:41:29] first thing

[00:41:30] I'd do,

[00:41:31] what they

[00:41:31] should be

[00:41:32] doing all

[00:41:32] the time is

[00:41:35] raising their

[00:41:36] floor.

[00:41:37] When you

[00:41:37] look around,

[00:41:38] look at the

[00:41:39] Mets,

[00:41:40] the Dodgers,

[00:41:41] the Yankees,

[00:41:42] they're not

[00:41:43] afraid to

[00:41:43] spend more

[00:41:44] money on

[00:41:45] their role

[00:41:46] players than

[00:41:47] a team like

[00:41:48] the Mariners.

[00:41:48] That's the

[00:41:49] first thing I'd

[00:41:50] do.

[00:41:51] Certainly you've

[00:41:52] got to do

[00:41:52] something in

[00:41:52] third base.

[00:41:57] I mean,

[00:41:58] Alex Bregman

[00:41:59] would be great.

[00:42:00] There's some

[00:42:00] risk with him.

[00:42:02] We know he's

[00:42:02] not coming here.

[00:42:03] I mean,

[00:42:03] I can tell you

[00:42:04] names who I

[00:42:04] think they should

[00:42:05] get but I

[00:42:05] don't know that

[00:42:07] I would have

[00:42:07] signed

[00:42:10] Christian Walker.

[00:42:11] Christian Walker

[00:42:12] would have been

[00:42:12] a guy at first

[00:42:13] base.

[00:42:14] There is some

[00:42:14] concern.

[00:42:15] He has been

[00:42:15] striking out

[00:42:16] more.

[00:42:16] He is older

[00:42:17] but the defense

[00:42:19] should continue

[00:42:19] to be good.

[00:42:20] He just has to

[00:42:21] be average over

[00:42:22] there and it

[00:42:23] would be an

[00:42:23] upgrade and

[00:42:24] that's part of

[00:42:25] this.

[00:42:25] With the Mariners,

[00:42:26] you don't need

[00:42:26] to have a top

[00:42:28] 10 offense.

[00:42:28] You're probably

[00:42:29] never going to

[00:42:29] have a top 10

[00:42:30] offense.

[00:42:30] I think they've

[00:42:31] had a top 10

[00:42:32] or top 5 offense

[00:42:33] once in the

[00:42:35] history of T-Mobile

[00:42:36] Park and I

[00:42:36] think it was

[00:42:36] like 2001.

[00:42:38] Sounds right.

[00:42:39] That's probably

[00:42:39] not going to

[00:42:40] happen.

[00:42:41] How about being

[00:42:43] 12th or 13th?

[00:42:46] Above average

[00:42:46] but not way

[00:42:47] above average.

[00:42:48] You don't have

[00:42:49] to have studs.

[00:42:51] What I also

[00:42:52] would do is I

[00:42:53] would double down

[00:42:54] on what you're

[00:42:54] good at.

[00:42:55] The pitching.

[00:42:56] I would go

[00:42:57] out and I

[00:42:57] would have

[00:43:00] acquired top

[00:43:00] level relievers.

[00:43:02] some top

[00:43:03] shelf guy to

[00:43:03] get in there

[00:43:04] to help

[00:43:05] Munoz and

[00:43:06] hopefully the

[00:43:07] guys, using the

[00:43:09] hope theory again,

[00:43:10] Matt Brash comes

[00:43:11] back and now you

[00:43:12] have a deeper

[00:43:13] bullpen.

[00:43:14] So that's what I

[00:43:16] would do.

[00:43:17] Would you have

[00:43:18] been a Devin

[00:43:18] Williams from

[00:43:20] the Brewers

[00:43:20] acquisition fan?

[00:43:25] Yeah, I mean

[00:43:26] I guess it depends

[00:43:26] on what you

[00:43:26] have to give up

[00:43:27] for him but

[00:43:27] yeah.

[00:43:28] Yeah, absolutely.

[00:43:30] Absolutely.

[00:43:31] The more arms

[00:43:31] in the bullpen

[00:43:32] the better.

[00:43:34] I noticed

[00:43:34] that maybe it

[00:43:35] was just because

[00:43:36] you were just

[00:43:36] trying to list

[00:43:36] off a name

[00:43:37] or two.

[00:43:37] You didn't

[00:43:37] throw Santos

[00:43:38] into that

[00:43:39] bucket.

[00:43:39] Are you?

[00:43:40] I couldn't

[00:43:40] think of his

[00:43:41] name and I

[00:43:41] didn't want to

[00:43:41] stammer away.

[00:43:43] Yes, definitely.

[00:43:44] And that was a

[00:43:45] good move last

[00:43:45] off.

[00:43:46] It didn't work

[00:43:46] out but that

[00:43:47] was a great

[00:43:48] move.

[00:43:48] He traded

[00:43:49] away a

[00:43:50] triple A hitter

[00:43:50] to pick up a

[00:43:51] guy who you

[00:43:54] were hoping would

[00:43:54] help you and

[00:43:55] he got hurt and

[00:43:55] that's just part of

[00:43:56] the deal with

[00:43:57] relief pitchers.

[00:43:59] But you would

[00:44:00] still feel like

[00:44:01] enter 2025.

[00:44:02] with all the

[00:44:03] control he has

[00:44:04] that he can

[00:44:05] still be the

[00:44:06] guy that they

[00:44:06] once traded for

[00:44:07] him to be.

[00:44:08] Oh, absolutely.

[00:44:09] Yeah, absolutely.

[00:44:10] I don't see why

[00:44:11] he won't be this

[00:44:12] year.

[00:44:13] We don't know

[00:44:13] that he will.

[00:44:14] Same thing with

[00:44:14] Matt Brash.

[00:44:15] You don't know

[00:44:15] what a guy's

[00:44:15] going to be like

[00:44:16] after Tommy John.

[00:44:17] We'll just see

[00:44:17] what he is and

[00:44:18] when he gets

[00:44:18] back and all

[00:44:19] that.

[00:44:19] But yeah,

[00:44:20] but look at

[00:44:21] the Yankees.

[00:44:21] They're trying

[00:44:22] to deepen

[00:44:22] their bullpen.

[00:44:23] They know.

[00:44:24] And look at

[00:44:24] these top teams.

[00:44:25] They're all

[00:44:25] trying to add

[00:44:26] starting pitchers.

[00:44:27] So why would

[00:44:28] you trade?

[00:44:29] I understand we

[00:44:30] need more

[00:44:33] talent.

[00:44:33] Yeah, just

[00:44:34] you just you

[00:44:34] just got to

[00:44:35] have to add

[00:44:35] more talent,

[00:44:36] but you

[00:44:36] just can't

[00:44:37] if it's not

[00:44:38] there, then

[00:44:38] do what you

[00:44:38] can upgrade

[00:44:40] what you

[00:44:40] can.

[00:44:41] So in terms

[00:44:42] of doing

[00:44:42] what they

[00:44:43] can to the

[00:44:43] more realistic

[00:44:44] budget, we

[00:44:45] imagine all

[00:44:46] 15 million is

[00:44:47] still there

[00:44:48] left in the

[00:44:48] budget.

[00:44:49] What would

[00:44:49] you feel like

[00:44:50] is realistic?

[00:44:53] Gosh, I

[00:44:54] don't know,

[00:44:55] not a lot

[00:44:55] with what's

[00:44:56] left.

[00:44:57] It's really

[00:44:58] difficult to

[00:44:58] envision.

[00:44:59] It depends

[00:45:00] on what they

[00:45:00] can do.

[00:45:01] If they can,

[00:45:01] they move a

[00:45:01] Mitch Garber.

[00:45:03] Could they

[00:45:04] pay half

[00:45:05] his salary,

[00:45:06] trade him

[00:45:06] with a

[00:45:07] prospect,

[00:45:08] and open

[00:45:09] up a little

[00:45:10] bit more

[00:45:10] room?

[00:45:11] Same thing

[00:45:11] with Mitch

[00:45:11] Garber.

[00:45:15] Yeah, I

[00:45:15] don't know.

[00:45:16] It's getting

[00:45:17] awfully difficult

[00:45:18] to come up

[00:45:19] with names

[00:45:19] that make

[00:45:19] sense.

[00:45:20] I was going

[00:45:21] to write

[00:45:21] about first

[00:45:22] baseman, and

[00:45:22] I just said,

[00:45:23] man, I don't

[00:45:23] want to talk

[00:45:24] about Ty

[00:45:24] France.

[00:45:25] I mean, I

[00:45:25] think it's

[00:45:26] ironic with

[00:45:26] Ty France.

[00:45:27] I heard you

[00:45:28] guys talking

[00:45:28] the other

[00:45:29] day about

[00:45:29] him.

[00:45:30] I don't

[00:45:30] think there's

[00:45:31] any way he'd

[00:45:31] be back.

[00:45:32] For some

[00:45:32] reason, they

[00:45:33] let him go.

[00:45:34] The fact

[00:45:34] that they

[00:45:34] let him

[00:45:35] go when

[00:45:36] they did

[00:45:36] says that

[00:45:37] there was

[00:45:37] some

[00:45:38] dissatisfaction

[00:45:39] with Ty

[00:45:39] France.

[00:45:40] Now, what

[00:45:40] that would

[00:45:40] be, I

[00:45:41] don't know,

[00:45:42] but why

[00:45:42] would you

[00:45:43] let him

[00:45:43] go at

[00:45:43] that point

[00:45:44] without a

[00:45:44] replacement?

[00:45:47] Yeah, and

[00:45:47] it is a

[00:45:48] little

[00:45:48] interesting.

[00:45:49] TJ has

[00:45:49] made the

[00:45:49] point that

[00:45:50] it feels

[00:45:51] like part

[00:45:52] of that

[00:45:53] was almost

[00:45:53] scapegoating

[00:45:54] Ty France

[00:45:54] for what

[00:45:55] was a

[00:45:55] plethora of

[00:45:56] problems

[00:45:56] within an

[00:45:57] entire

[00:45:57] offense,

[00:45:58] but part

[00:45:58] of that

[00:45:59] too is

[00:45:59] you're

[00:46:00] right.

[00:46:00] He is

[00:46:01] a first

[00:46:02] baseman

[00:46:03] that doesn't

[00:46:03] hit for a

[00:46:04] lot of

[00:46:04] raw power,

[00:46:05] wasn't playing

[00:46:05] great defense,

[00:46:07] obviously doesn't

[00:46:08] run all that

[00:46:08] well, and if

[00:46:09] you're not

[00:46:10] putting up

[00:46:10] numbers at a

[00:46:11] premier offensive

[00:46:12] position,

[00:46:13] sometimes that

[00:46:14] leads to a

[00:46:15] team deciding

[00:46:16] they need to

[00:46:16] move on.

[00:46:16] But yeah,

[00:46:17] what's tough

[00:46:18] about the

[00:46:18] first base

[00:46:19] market is

[00:46:19] who's left,

[00:46:20] right?

[00:46:21] I mean,

[00:46:21] obviously you

[00:46:21] can say the

[00:46:22] obvious and

[00:46:22] Pete Alonzo,

[00:46:23] but I think

[00:46:23] all three of

[00:46:24] us would say

[00:46:24] that's probably

[00:46:25] not happening.

[00:46:26] And then you

[00:46:27] move on to

[00:46:29] Justin Turner,

[00:46:30] which seems

[00:46:31] like the

[00:46:31] obvious one.

[00:46:32] Which is the

[00:46:33] it seems like

[00:46:34] what they

[00:46:34] will do at

[00:46:35] this point.

[00:46:35] If he wants

[00:46:36] to come back,

[00:46:36] he said at the

[00:46:37] beginning of the

[00:46:38] offseason he was

[00:46:38] interested.

[00:46:39] I don't know

[00:46:40] if we've heard

[00:46:40] much from

[00:46:40] Justin Turner

[00:46:41] since.

[00:46:43] I like

[00:46:44] Justin Turner,

[00:46:45] but Justin

[00:46:45] Turner is 40.

[00:46:46] So at some

[00:46:48] point,

[00:46:49] players don't

[00:46:50] play as well.

[00:46:51] They get

[00:46:52] injured more,

[00:46:52] and it has

[00:46:53] to do with

[00:46:53] age.

[00:46:53] And when

[00:46:54] he's 40,

[00:46:55] he probably

[00:46:56] shouldn't be

[00:46:56] playing every

[00:46:57] day.

[00:46:57] Now maybe

[00:46:58] you platoon

[00:46:59] him with

[00:47:01] Luke Raley.

[00:47:03] That's okay.

[00:47:05] But would

[00:47:06] that be enough

[00:47:06] plate appearances

[00:47:08] to satisfy

[00:47:09] Justin Turner,

[00:47:09] who might be

[00:47:10] in the final

[00:47:10] year of his

[00:47:11] career?

[00:47:11] Does he

[00:47:12] want to

[00:47:12] just be

[00:47:12] a platoon

[00:47:15] guy against

[00:47:16] left-handed

[00:47:16] pitching in

[00:47:17] Seattle?

[00:47:18] I don't know.

[00:47:19] That's a good

[00:47:19] question.

[00:47:20] Are we putting

[00:47:21] unnecessary

[00:47:21] pressure here

[00:47:22] on Luke

[00:47:22] Raley?

[00:47:23] I feel like

[00:47:24] with how the

[00:47:25] first base

[00:47:25] market has

[00:47:26] come out,

[00:47:26] it came from

[00:47:27] Luke Raley

[00:47:28] being an

[00:47:29] idea at

[00:47:29] first base

[00:47:30] where it's

[00:47:31] like, oh,

[00:47:31] this is an

[00:47:32] option for us.

[00:47:33] We know he

[00:47:34] had a really

[00:47:34] good season

[00:47:34] last year,

[00:47:35] until at

[00:47:35] this point

[00:47:36] it's like,

[00:47:36] oh man,

[00:47:37] you should

[00:47:37] probably be

[00:47:38] taking a lot

[00:47:38] of first base

[00:47:39] reps this

[00:47:39] offseason.

[00:47:40] No pressure.

[00:47:41] I think he'll

[00:47:42] be fine,

[00:47:42] personally.

[00:47:43] I think he

[00:47:44] would be

[00:47:44] fine.

[00:47:45] I mean,

[00:47:45] if you look

[00:47:46] at the way

[00:47:47] they're set

[00:47:47] up right

[00:47:48] now,

[00:47:49] of the three

[00:47:50] positions,

[00:47:51] first base,

[00:47:51] second,

[00:47:51] third,

[00:47:52] I would put

[00:47:53] first as

[00:47:54] the third

[00:47:55] priority,

[00:47:56] because they

[00:47:56] have a guy.

[00:47:57] They have a

[00:47:58] left-handed

[00:47:58] hitter.

[00:47:59] What?

[00:48:00] About 80% of

[00:48:01] the league is

[00:48:01] right-handed

[00:48:02] pitching,

[00:48:02] so he's

[00:48:03] going to

[00:48:04] play nearly

[00:48:04] every day,

[00:48:07] and don't

[00:48:08] worry about

[00:48:08] the left-handed

[00:48:09] pitch.

[00:48:09] That's what

[00:48:10] Dylan Moore

[00:48:10] can do.

[00:48:13] I don't

[00:48:13] worry too

[00:48:14] much about

[00:48:14] it,

[00:48:14] but second

[00:48:15] base is,

[00:48:17] to me,

[00:48:18] a hole,

[00:48:18] and so

[00:48:18] is third

[00:48:19] base.

[00:48:19] Those two

[00:48:20] positions,

[00:48:20] you've got to

[00:48:21] do something

[00:48:22] there.

[00:48:22] You don't

[00:48:22] have anything

[00:48:24] that's

[00:48:26] acceptable.

[00:48:27] Just don't.

[00:48:29] What about

[00:48:30] the defense

[00:48:30] aspect of

[00:48:31] what really

[00:48:32] could do

[00:48:32] at first

[00:48:32] base?

[00:48:33] It was

[00:48:35] fine,

[00:48:35] I think.

[00:48:37] Well,

[00:48:37] fine is,

[00:48:37] I mean,

[00:48:38] what is,

[00:48:40] yeah,

[00:48:40] first base

[00:48:41] defense is

[00:48:41] so hard

[00:48:42] to gauge

[00:48:42] anyway.

[00:48:43] I mean,

[00:48:44] I'm sure

[00:48:45] he'll be

[00:48:45] fine.

[00:48:46] I mean,

[00:48:48] if Ty

[00:48:48] France hit,

[00:48:49] nobody,

[00:48:49] if you

[00:48:49] hit at first

[00:48:50] base,

[00:48:50] nobody cares

[00:48:51] about your

[00:48:51] defense unless

[00:48:51] you just

[00:48:54] have the

[00:48:54] mobility of

[00:48:55] a statue.

[00:48:56] Nobody

[00:48:56] cares.

[00:48:57] Sure.

[00:48:58] Okay,

[00:48:59] so staying

[00:49:00] on this

[00:49:00] topic here,

[00:49:01] because we're

[00:49:01] talking about

[00:49:01] Luke Raley,

[00:49:02] and now we're

[00:49:03] kind of in the

[00:49:03] conversation of

[00:49:04] what you could

[00:49:05] call some tier

[00:49:07] two players on

[00:49:08] the offense,

[00:49:08] some auxiliary

[00:49:09] players on the

[00:49:09] offense is the

[00:49:10] word TJ used

[00:49:11] in terms of

[00:49:12] the less

[00:49:13] bats you add,

[00:49:14] the more that

[00:49:15] gets put on the

[00:49:16] shoulders of the

[00:49:17] guys that are

[00:49:17] already on the

[00:49:17] roster.

[00:49:18] And somebody you

[00:49:18] just wrote about

[00:49:19] recently and have

[00:49:20] talked a decent

[00:49:21] amount about,

[00:49:21] which is Victor

[00:49:22] Robles,

[00:49:22] feels like he

[00:49:23] falls into that

[00:49:24] category.

[00:49:24] a guy who

[00:49:25] was the

[00:49:26] surprise of

[00:49:26] all surprises

[00:49:27] last year for

[00:49:27] the Mariners,

[00:49:28] had an

[00:49:28] unbelievable

[00:49:29] year after

[00:49:29] they picked

[00:49:30] him up,

[00:49:30] really spark

[00:49:31] plugged an

[00:49:32] offense that

[00:49:32] needed a

[00:49:32] shot of

[00:49:33] life.

[00:49:33] They give

[00:49:33] him the

[00:49:34] small

[00:49:34] extension.

[00:49:36] But with

[00:49:36] all of

[00:49:37] this,

[00:49:37] if they're

[00:49:37] not going

[00:49:38] to go out

[00:49:38] impact at

[00:49:39] first,

[00:49:39] second,

[00:49:40] and or

[00:49:40] third,

[00:49:42] more gets

[00:49:42] put on the

[00:49:43] top of that

[00:49:43] lineup,

[00:49:44] which is

[00:49:45] Robles,

[00:49:45] it's Randy,

[00:49:46] it's Julio,

[00:49:46] it's Cal,

[00:49:47] etc.

[00:49:48] Is that

[00:49:49] fair pressure

[00:49:49] to now put

[00:49:50] on Victor

[00:49:50] Robles?

[00:49:51] And also,

[00:49:52] writing what

[00:49:53] you wrote this

[00:49:54] week,

[00:49:54] do you feel

[00:49:54] like what

[00:49:55] he did last

[00:49:55] year can

[00:49:56] sustain to

[00:49:57] some level

[00:49:57] in 2025?

[00:49:59] Well,

[00:50:00] like I said,

[00:50:00] I'm going to

[00:50:01] take a wait

[00:50:01] and see approach

[00:50:02] with Victor

[00:50:03] Robles.

[00:50:03] I'm hoping,

[00:50:04] I'm rooting

[00:50:04] for the guy,

[00:50:05] but he hasn't

[00:50:06] done it over

[00:50:07] a sustained

[00:50:07] period of

[00:50:08] time.

[00:50:08] I mean,

[00:50:08] he did

[00:50:09] hit extremely

[00:50:09] well at

[00:50:10] T-Mobile Park,

[00:50:11] which is

[00:50:11] always a

[00:50:11] plus,

[00:50:13] but he

[00:50:14] played out

[00:50:15] of his

[00:50:15] mind in

[00:50:16] September.

[00:50:17] I mean,

[00:50:17] the only

[00:50:17] hitter better

[00:50:18] in September

[00:50:19] was Shohei

[00:50:19] Otani.

[00:50:21] I mean,

[00:50:22] can we expect

[00:50:23] him to repeat

[00:50:23] that?

[00:50:23] Probably

[00:50:24] not.

[00:50:25] He's a

[00:50:26] good runner,

[00:50:27] we know

[00:50:27] that,

[00:50:28] I mean,

[00:50:28] other than

[00:50:28] his one

[00:50:29] oopsie-daisy

[00:50:30] at third

[00:50:30] base with

[00:50:31] Justin Turner

[00:50:32] at the

[00:50:32] plate,

[00:50:32] but other

[00:50:32] than that,

[00:50:33] he was

[00:50:34] exceptionally

[00:50:35] good on

[00:50:36] the bases

[00:50:37] he's a

[00:50:37] decent

[00:50:38] defender,

[00:50:38] he can

[00:50:39] play all

[00:50:39] three outfield

[00:50:40] positions,

[00:50:41] that's a

[00:50:42] good guy

[00:50:43] to have

[00:50:43] on your

[00:50:43] team.

[00:50:44] whether he

[00:50:44] should be

[00:50:44] the fourth

[00:50:44] outfielder

[00:50:45] or a

[00:50:46] starting

[00:50:46] right

[00:50:47] fielder,

[00:50:47] I don't

[00:50:47] know.

[00:50:49] I guess

[00:50:49] we're going

[00:50:50] to find

[00:50:50] out because

[00:50:50] it looks

[00:50:51] like the

[00:50:51] Mariners

[00:50:51] are satisfied

[00:50:52] with their

[00:50:53] outfield

[00:50:53] position.

[00:50:55] I think

[00:50:55] what worries

[00:50:56] me the

[00:50:56] most about

[00:50:57] Robles,

[00:50:58] less of

[00:50:58] his,

[00:50:59] I would

[00:50:59] say less

[00:51:00] of the

[00:51:02] offensive

[00:51:03] year-over-year

[00:51:04] continuance

[00:51:04] that he brings

[00:51:05] over from

[00:51:05] last season

[00:51:06] because I

[00:51:07] think at

[00:51:08] this point

[00:51:08] the Mariners

[00:51:09] want J.P.

[00:51:09] Crawford to

[00:51:10] bounce back

[00:51:10] as well and

[00:51:11] sort of

[00:51:12] retake that

[00:51:12] leadoff spot.

[00:51:13] I think

[00:51:13] the 2023

[00:51:14] version of

[00:51:15] J.P.

[00:51:15] Crawford or

[00:51:16] even 80-90%

[00:51:17] of it in

[00:51:18] that leadoff

[00:51:18] spot is

[00:51:19] about as

[00:51:19] valuable as

[00:51:20] it could

[00:51:20] possibly get

[00:51:21] given

[00:51:22] everything he

[00:51:23] brought to

[00:51:23] that position.

[00:51:24] So that

[00:51:25] would put

[00:51:25] I think

[00:51:26] less of a

[00:51:27] weight on

[00:51:28] Victor

[00:51:28] Robles'

[00:51:29] shoulders.

[00:51:30] The problem

[00:51:30] is Robles

[00:51:31] has had

[00:51:31] issues staying

[00:51:32] healthy in

[00:51:32] his career

[00:51:33] and once

[00:51:33] he goes

[00:51:34] down,

[00:51:35] once,

[00:51:36] that's a

[00:51:37] hypothetical,

[00:51:38] if he goes

[00:51:39] down this

[00:51:39] upcoming season

[00:51:40] then you

[00:51:41] have a pinch

[00:51:41] where essentially

[00:51:42] you're going to

[00:51:42] now ask your

[00:51:43] first baseman

[00:51:43] to go back

[00:51:44] out into

[00:51:44] the outfield

[00:51:45] and play

[00:51:46] and that

[00:51:46] leaves you

[00:51:47] empty-handed

[00:51:48] at first.

[00:51:49] And as the

[00:51:50] Mariners have

[00:51:50] done I think

[00:51:51] year over

[00:51:51] year it's been

[00:51:52] oh Dylan

[00:51:52] Moore will

[00:51:53] solve this

[00:51:53] issue.

[00:51:54] But as we've

[00:51:54] talked about

[00:51:55] this forces

[00:51:56] Dylan Moore

[00:51:56] into a

[00:51:56] position that

[00:51:57] is not

[00:51:57] his strength

[00:51:58] and well

[00:52:01] I don't think

[00:52:02] that benefits

[00:52:03] the Mariners

[00:52:04] quite as much.

[00:52:05] But Luke

[00:52:06] if I remember

[00:52:07] correctly from

[00:52:07] your article

[00:52:08] you weren't

[00:52:09] quite as

[00:52:10] worried with

[00:52:10] the injuries

[00:52:11] for Victor

[00:52:11] Robles.

[00:52:12] Do I have

[00:52:12] that right?

[00:52:15] I don't know

[00:52:16] we'll see.

[00:52:17] I mean

[00:52:17] I forget what

[00:52:18] injury he had

[00:52:18] earlier this

[00:52:19] season.

[00:52:20] He had an

[00:52:20] injury with

[00:52:20] Nationals

[00:52:21] before he

[00:52:21] joined the

[00:52:22] Mariners.

[00:52:24] Mostly

[00:52:25] back,

[00:52:25] right back

[00:52:26] and

[00:52:26] hamstring

[00:52:26] I think

[00:52:26] was his

[00:52:27] issues.

[00:52:28] But yeah

[00:52:29] we'll see.

[00:52:30] I mean you

[00:52:30] could always

[00:52:31] call up a

[00:52:31] Cade Morrow

[00:52:32] or somebody

[00:52:32] like that

[00:52:33] if it's a

[00:52:33] short term

[00:52:33] injury.

[00:52:34] Just deal

[00:52:34] with it.

[00:52:35] I mean every

[00:52:35] team deals

[00:52:36] with losing

[00:52:36] players.

[00:52:38] I mean if

[00:52:39] you commit

[00:52:40] to Luke

[00:52:40] Raley at

[00:52:41] first base

[00:52:41] then he's

[00:52:41] a first

[00:52:42] baseman

[00:52:42] who might

[00:52:43] run out

[00:52:43] in the

[00:52:43] outfield.

[00:52:44] Maybe

[00:52:45] if A.

[00:52:46] Justin

[00:52:46] Turner is

[00:52:47] playing

[00:52:48] first base

[00:52:49] and you

[00:52:51] may run

[00:52:51] out

[00:52:53] rarely out

[00:52:53] in the

[00:52:54] outfield or

[00:52:54] something like

[00:52:55] that.

[00:52:55] If Julio

[00:52:56] goes down

[00:52:56] or somebody

[00:52:57] else hopefully

[00:52:57] doesn't go

[00:52:58] down.

[00:52:58] But if he

[00:52:58] does,

[00:52:59] if somebody

[00:52:59] else is

[00:53:00] down you

[00:53:00] might shift

[00:53:00] a little

[00:53:01] bit.

[00:53:01] But I

[00:53:02] think he's

[00:53:02] your first

[00:53:03] baseman.

[00:53:03] You leave

[00:53:03] him there.

[00:53:04] You deal

[00:53:05] with it.

[00:53:06] If we're

[00:53:07] talking about

[00:53:08] year-over-year

[00:53:08] offensive

[00:53:09] production,

[00:53:10] back to

[00:53:10] the first

[00:53:10] part of

[00:53:11] what I

[00:53:11] just asked.

[00:53:12] What about

[00:53:12] J.P.

[00:53:13] Crawford?

[00:53:13] Where on

[00:53:15] the J.P.

[00:53:16] Crawford

[00:53:16] dial from

[00:53:17] 2023 to

[00:53:17] 2024 would

[00:53:18] you want

[00:53:19] this 2025

[00:53:20] season to

[00:53:21] be or

[00:53:21] expect?

[00:53:23] I would

[00:53:24] be pleased

[00:53:25] if he

[00:53:25] averaged

[00:53:26] what he

[00:53:26] did in

[00:53:26] 21 and

[00:53:27] 22.

[00:53:28] Sort of

[00:53:28] an on-base

[00:53:29] guy, not

[00:53:30] a lot of

[00:53:30] slug.

[00:53:31] I'd be

[00:53:32] happy with

[00:53:32] that.

[00:53:32] If he

[00:53:33] is a

[00:53:34] 340

[00:53:34] OBP, I'd

[00:53:36] be happy

[00:53:36] with that.

[00:53:37] If he

[00:53:38] does what

[00:53:38] he did

[00:53:39] in 23,

[00:53:39] that'd be

[00:53:40] awesome.

[00:53:41] I know I

[00:53:42] saw a video

[00:53:42] yesterday.

[00:53:43] He was

[00:53:43] down at

[00:53:44] driveline,

[00:53:45] so hopefully

[00:53:45] he's trying

[00:53:46] to work on

[00:53:47] a few

[00:53:47] things.

[00:53:49] He just

[00:53:49] had a

[00:53:50] rough year.

[00:53:50] He got

[00:53:51] hurt, and

[00:53:52] it's just

[00:53:52] tough to

[00:53:53] come back

[00:53:53] and get

[00:53:55] back in

[00:53:55] sync.

[00:53:56] It's tough

[00:53:56] to know

[00:53:57] what he'll

[00:53:57] be this

[00:53:58] coming year,

[00:53:59] but he

[00:53:59] has to

[00:54:00] hit.

[00:54:01] He's

[00:54:01] slightly

[00:54:01] above

[00:54:02] average

[00:54:02] in

[00:54:02] short

[00:54:03] stop.

[00:54:03] He's

[00:54:03] not an

[00:54:04] elite

[00:54:04] defender.

[00:54:06] At least

[00:54:06] he feels

[00:54:07] well.

[00:54:08] He's

[00:54:09] okay.

[00:54:10] He has

[00:54:11] to hit,

[00:54:12] or else

[00:54:12] it really

[00:54:13] is sort

[00:54:13] of a

[00:54:14] drag.

[00:54:16] You're

[00:54:17] talking

[00:54:17] about

[00:54:19] J.P.'s

[00:54:20] on base

[00:54:21] percentage

[00:54:21] and what

[00:54:22] he could

[00:54:23] be come

[00:54:24] 2025,

[00:54:26] and you

[00:54:26] said some

[00:54:26] version of

[00:54:27] 21 to

[00:54:27] 22,

[00:54:28] which was

[00:54:28] about a

[00:54:30] 105 WRC

[00:54:31] plus hitter

[00:54:32] roughly,

[00:54:32] and I

[00:54:32] bring that

[00:54:33] in because

[00:54:35] new age

[00:54:36] numbers and

[00:54:37] some of the

[00:54:38] advanced metrics

[00:54:38] is not

[00:54:39] foreign to

[00:54:40] you.

[00:54:40] You talk

[00:54:40] about it

[00:54:41] plenty on

[00:54:42] social media

[00:54:43] when you

[00:54:43] try to

[00:54:43] outline

[00:54:44] points that

[00:54:45] you're making

[00:54:46] for fans

[00:54:47] to view

[00:54:48] and read

[00:54:48] when they're

[00:54:48] looking at

[00:54:49] your work,

[00:54:49] and not

[00:54:50] everybody

[00:54:50] does that,

[00:54:52] especially not

[00:54:52] everybody a

[00:54:53] generation,

[00:54:54] I'd say,

[00:54:54] ahead of us.

[00:54:55] Some people

[00:54:55] just don't

[00:54:56] want any

[00:54:56] part of

[00:54:57] the new

[00:54:57] age analytics,

[00:54:57] analytics,

[00:54:58] but you're

[00:54:59] really invested

[00:54:59] in it,

[00:55:00] which I

[00:55:00] love.

[00:55:01] So how

[00:55:02] did you

[00:55:02] kind of get

[00:55:03] bought into

[00:55:03] that idea

[00:55:04] and say,

[00:55:04] yeah,

[00:55:05] all this

[00:55:05] stuff's

[00:55:05] important?

[00:55:06] Well,

[00:55:07] I'm at

[00:55:07] least a

[00:55:07] generation

[00:55:08] ahead of

[00:55:08] you guys,

[00:55:09] so a

[00:55:11] generation

[00:55:11] ahead of

[00:55:12] me,

[00:55:12] they've

[00:55:12] probably

[00:55:12] got a

[00:55:13] foot in

[00:55:13] the

[00:55:13] grave,

[00:55:15] but I

[00:55:16] don't know,

[00:55:19] I'm just

[00:55:20] trying to

[00:55:20] find ways

[00:55:21] to better

[00:55:22] understand

[00:55:23] stuff,

[00:55:23] and to

[00:55:24] compare

[00:55:24] things,

[00:55:25] and the

[00:55:26] advanced

[00:55:26] metrics do

[00:55:27] that,

[00:55:28] it doesn't,

[00:55:29] you know,

[00:55:29] people say,

[00:55:30] batting average

[00:55:31] doesn't matter

[00:55:31] anymore.

[00:55:31] Well,

[00:55:32] it does

[00:55:32] matter,

[00:55:32] it's just

[00:55:33] not everything.

[00:55:33] If you

[00:55:34] gauge

[00:55:34] somebody

[00:55:35] just by

[00:55:35] their

[00:55:35] batting

[00:55:36] average,

[00:55:37] you're

[00:55:37] probably

[00:55:38] either

[00:55:38] underestimating

[00:55:39] or overestimating

[00:55:40] their value.

[00:55:43] And things

[00:55:43] like WRC+,

[00:55:46] OPS+,

[00:55:46] those are

[00:55:47] park-adjusted

[00:55:48] metrics,

[00:55:49] they're just

[00:55:50] a great way

[00:55:50] to compare

[00:55:51] players.

[00:55:52] And then

[00:55:53] things like

[00:55:53] hard hit rate,

[00:55:54] barrel rate,

[00:55:55] I like those

[00:55:56] things because

[00:55:56] they're result

[00:55:57] driven.

[00:55:59] You hit the

[00:55:59] ball hard,

[00:56:00] you barreled

[00:56:01] it with

[00:56:02] quality,

[00:56:02] that just

[00:56:03] makes it a

[00:56:04] lot easier

[00:56:04] to understand

[00:56:05] what somebody

[00:56:06] is doing.

[00:56:06] Because sometimes

[00:56:07] we know that

[00:56:09] guys hit the

[00:56:10] ball right at

[00:56:10] the,

[00:56:10] let's say a

[00:56:11] right-handed

[00:56:11] hitter,

[00:56:12] he hits a

[00:56:12] screaming line

[00:56:13] drive to

[00:56:14] third base

[00:56:14] and it's

[00:56:15] an out.

[00:56:16] But as

[00:56:17] us,

[00:56:17] as observers

[00:56:18] of the

[00:56:18] game,

[00:56:19] should look

[00:56:20] at it and

[00:56:20] say,

[00:56:20] hey,

[00:56:21] he did

[00:56:21] well,

[00:56:22] the hitter

[00:56:23] did well,

[00:56:23] he just,

[00:56:23] he made

[00:56:24] out,

[00:56:24] but he

[00:56:25] took a

[00:56:25] good swing

[00:56:26] and it

[00:56:26] worked out

[00:56:27] and perhaps

[00:56:28] next time

[00:56:28] it will.

[00:56:29] So that's

[00:56:29] why I like

[00:56:30] advanced

[00:56:30] metrics.

[00:56:32] And I'm

[00:56:33] glad you

[00:56:34] highlighted

[00:56:35] at least a

[00:56:35] portion of

[00:56:36] that as

[00:56:36] park-adjusted

[00:56:37] because that's

[00:56:38] so important

[00:56:39] when it comes

[00:56:40] to evaluating

[00:56:41] Mariners offense

[00:56:42] since they

[00:56:42] play in such

[00:56:43] an offensively

[00:56:45] suppressant

[00:56:45] ballpark.

[00:56:46] And I want

[00:56:46] to go back

[00:56:47] to something

[00:56:47] you mentioned

[00:56:48] earlier when

[00:56:48] you were

[00:56:48] talking about

[00:56:49] the Mariners

[00:56:49] offense,

[00:56:50] that they

[00:56:50] only need

[00:56:51] to have

[00:56:51] a top 15

[00:56:53] offense in

[00:56:54] baseball and

[00:56:54] they should

[00:56:55] be fine.

[00:56:55] Slightly better.

[00:56:57] Or slightly

[00:56:58] better, yes,

[00:56:58] which they

[00:56:58] were this

[00:56:59] past year by

[00:56:59] when we do

[00:57:00] a park-adjusted

[00:57:01] stat like

[00:57:01] WRC+.

[00:57:02] I believe

[00:57:02] they were

[00:57:03] 12th.

[00:57:04] What's puzzling

[00:57:05] to me always

[00:57:06] is that

[00:57:06] when we

[00:57:07] talk about

[00:57:07] that and

[00:57:08] we look

[00:57:08] at the

[00:57:08] Mariners

[00:57:08] the past

[00:57:09] three seasons,

[00:57:10] they've been

[00:57:10] I think

[00:57:11] 12th,

[00:57:11] 6th,

[00:57:12] and 9th

[00:57:12] in WRC+,

[00:57:13] the last

[00:57:14] three years,

[00:57:14] and yet

[00:57:14] people have

[00:57:15] been scratching

[00:57:16] and clawing

[00:57:17] about why

[00:57:18] the offense

[00:57:18] still isn't

[00:57:19] good enough.

[00:57:20] So when

[00:57:21] you see a

[00:57:21] number evaluated

[00:57:22] like that,

[00:57:23] how do you

[00:57:23] sort of pick

[00:57:23] through and

[00:57:24] see,

[00:57:24] okay,

[00:57:24] here's where

[00:57:25] the flaws

[00:57:25] of this is

[00:57:26] and here's

[00:57:27] where it

[00:57:27] really,

[00:57:28] really shines?

[00:57:29] Well,

[00:57:31] so park

[00:57:32] adjusted stats

[00:57:33] are not

[00:57:33] necessarily

[00:57:34] the best

[00:57:34] thing to

[00:57:35] use when

[00:57:36] you're trying

[00:57:36] to gauge

[00:57:37] a team's

[00:57:37] offense

[00:57:38] because

[00:57:40] what matters

[00:57:41] most is

[00:57:42] how many

[00:57:42] runs you

[00:57:43] average per

[00:57:43] game

[00:57:44] and so

[00:57:45] or how

[00:57:45] many,

[00:57:46] you know,

[00:57:46] because that's

[00:57:46] what it takes

[00:57:47] to win games

[00:57:48] is to score

[00:57:48] runs and so

[00:57:49] park adjusted

[00:57:50] stats take

[00:57:52] into account

[00:57:52] that you

[00:57:53] play in a

[00:57:54] pitcher's park

[00:57:55] for half

[00:57:56] your season

[00:57:56] but that

[00:57:57] doesn't help

[00:57:58] you when

[00:57:59] you're trying

[00:57:59] to score

[00:58:02] runs every

[00:58:02] night.

[00:58:03] So I think

[00:58:05] that's part

[00:58:05] of it.

[00:58:05] I mean,

[00:58:06] to me,

[00:58:06] you want to

[00:58:07] be for a

[00:58:08] season,

[00:58:08] if you can

[00:58:09] be 10th

[00:58:10] to 12th

[00:58:10] and run

[00:58:11] scored,

[00:58:11] I think

[00:58:12] you're in

[00:58:13] pretty good

[00:58:13] shape.

[00:58:14] And I

[00:58:15] wouldn't look

[00:58:15] at the

[00:58:15] WRC.

[00:58:16] I just

[00:58:17] don't think

[00:58:17] it's a good

[00:58:18] way to look

[00:58:18] at a team

[00:58:19] or an

[00:58:20] individual

[00:58:20] player

[00:58:22] as far as

[00:58:23] their performance

[00:58:24] goes.

[00:58:24] Are they

[00:58:25] doing their

[00:58:25] job?

[00:58:25] Yes or

[00:58:26] no?

[00:58:26] Like J.P.

[00:58:27] Crawford,

[00:58:28] he's 5%

[00:58:29] at 105

[00:58:30] WRC plus

[00:58:31] or OPS

[00:58:32] plus,

[00:58:32] he's 5%

[00:58:33] above the

[00:58:34] league.

[00:58:34] Okay,

[00:58:35] that probably

[00:58:35] makes some

[00:58:36] sense.

[00:58:37] But when you

[00:58:37] look at the

[00:58:37] Mariners as

[00:58:38] a whole,

[00:58:38] does that

[00:58:39] make sense?

[00:58:39] I don't

[00:58:40] think it's

[00:58:40] a good

[00:58:40] idea to

[00:58:41] gauge

[00:58:41] teams with

[00:58:42] that stat.

[00:58:44] Yeah,

[00:58:45] I'm in that

[00:58:45] boat.

[00:58:45] I like to

[00:58:45] use it more

[00:58:46] for the

[00:58:46] players than

[00:58:47] the teams.

[00:58:48] For every

[00:58:48] reason you

[00:58:49] just

[00:58:49] outlined.

[00:58:50] Last one

[00:58:50] I've got

[00:58:51] for you,

[00:58:51] Luke,

[00:58:52] is as

[00:58:52] somebody

[00:58:53] like you

[00:58:53] who's not

[00:58:54] from here,

[00:58:55] they moved

[00:58:55] here,

[00:58:56] you've lived

[00:58:56] here about

[00:58:57] 15 years

[00:58:57] now,

[00:58:58] but you

[00:58:58] are as

[00:58:59] ingrained

[00:58:59] in the

[00:59:00] Mariners as

[00:59:01] anybody

[00:59:02] these days.

[00:59:03] How'd you

[00:59:03] get into

[00:59:04] it?

[00:59:05] Well,

[00:59:06] as far as

[00:59:06] how did I

[00:59:06] get into

[00:59:07] Mariners,

[00:59:07] I married

[00:59:08] a Mariners

[00:59:08] fan.

[00:59:09] So,

[00:59:10] on our

[00:59:10] first date,

[00:59:12] she had

[00:59:13] to tell

[00:59:13] me all

[00:59:14] about the

[00:59:15] night they

[00:59:16] traded

[00:59:17] Randy Johnson

[00:59:18] to the

[00:59:19] Diamondbacks

[00:59:20] and how

[00:59:20] she told me

[00:59:21] at the

[00:59:21] time,

[00:59:22] don't tell

[00:59:22] anybody,

[00:59:23] but I

[00:59:23] cried.

[00:59:24] Then I

[00:59:25] found out

[00:59:25] she told

[00:59:25] other people

[00:59:26] the same

[00:59:26] thing.

[00:59:28] And that's

[00:59:29] sort of how

[00:59:29] it started

[00:59:30] for me.

[00:59:32] I'm a

[00:59:33] Mets fan.

[00:59:34] I still

[00:59:35] root for

[00:59:35] the Mets,

[00:59:36] but I

[00:59:37] watch every

[00:59:37] Mariners game.

[00:59:38] I watch

[00:59:39] most of the

[00:59:39] Mets games,

[00:59:40] parts of the

[00:59:41] Mets games,

[00:59:41] but I'm a

[00:59:42] Mariners fan.

[00:59:44] And so she

[00:59:45] got me into

[00:59:45] it.

[00:59:46] And then as

[00:59:47] far as

[00:59:47] writing,

[00:59:48] I was still

[00:59:50] active duty.

[00:59:51] I remember

[00:59:52] I used to

[00:59:53] hear Jason

[00:59:54] Churchill,

[00:59:55] he would do

[00:59:56] a segment

[00:59:56] with Steve

[00:59:57] Sandmeyer

[00:59:58] on 1090.

[01:00:01] back,

[01:00:02] I don't know

[01:00:02] when it was,

[01:00:04] probably 12

[01:00:04] years ago or

[01:00:05] so,

[01:00:05] I don't

[01:00:05] remember now.

[01:00:06] And I

[01:00:07] thought,

[01:00:08] this guy's

[01:00:08] kind of

[01:00:08] interesting.

[01:00:09] And then I

[01:00:10] started following

[01:00:10] him on

[01:00:10] Twitter,

[01:00:11] and then he

[01:00:12] became a

[01:00:12] regular on

[01:00:13] the show.

[01:00:14] And I

[01:00:15] remember him

[01:00:16] tweeting out

[01:00:17] that he was

[01:00:17] looking for

[01:00:18] people to

[01:00:18] write at

[01:00:18] Prospect

[01:00:19] Insider.

[01:00:19] And I

[01:00:20] remember I

[01:00:20] was laid

[01:00:21] up with a

[01:00:21] broken ankle.

[01:00:22] I was going

[01:00:23] to be leaving

[01:00:23] the service

[01:00:24] in about

[01:00:26] 10 months.

[01:00:27] And I

[01:00:28] remember I

[01:00:28] being at

[01:00:28] home in

[01:00:29] bed with

[01:00:29] this broken

[01:00:30] ankle.

[01:00:31] And just

[01:00:33] tweeting at

[01:00:34] him and

[01:00:34] saying,

[01:00:35] hey,

[01:00:35] I'd like

[01:00:35] to write

[01:00:38] for Prospect

[01:00:39] Insider at

[01:00:39] some point.

[01:00:40] And so he

[01:00:40] said,

[01:00:41] okay.

[01:00:41] And I

[01:00:41] said,

[01:00:42] I'll get

[01:00:42] with you

[01:00:42] when I

[01:00:43] can.

[01:00:43] And so

[01:00:43] a year

[01:00:43] later or

[01:00:44] so I

[01:00:44] reached

[01:00:45] out and

[01:00:45] I met

[01:00:46] him.

[01:00:46] And that's

[01:00:47] how I

[01:00:47] started

[01:00:47] writing.

[01:00:48] And so

[01:00:48] then a

[01:00:49] couple years

[01:00:49] ago I

[01:00:50] started the

[01:00:50] newsletter to

[01:00:52] sort of

[01:00:52] venture out

[01:00:52] on myself.

[01:00:53] And that's

[01:00:55] kind of my

[01:00:56] story.

[01:00:57] And how

[01:00:58] do you

[01:00:58] feel like

[01:00:58] last thing

[01:00:59] for me,

[01:00:59] Luke,

[01:00:59] how do

[01:01:00] you feel

[01:01:00] like your

[01:01:01] writing and

[01:01:02] your storytelling

[01:01:02] has evolved?

[01:01:03] Like what

[01:01:04] point have

[01:01:04] you gotten

[01:01:05] to of like

[01:01:05] this is the

[01:01:06] story I'm

[01:01:07] trying to tell

[01:01:07] with this?

[01:01:09] Well,

[01:01:09] initially I

[01:01:10] was sort

[01:01:11] of,

[01:01:11] I think I

[01:01:12] wrote more

[01:01:13] opinion than

[01:01:14] anything.

[01:01:15] And then it

[01:01:15] sort of evolved

[01:01:16] and at some

[01:01:17] point I

[01:01:18] kind of leaned

[01:01:18] back on my

[01:01:19] life in the

[01:01:20] Navy where I

[01:01:21] like to be

[01:01:21] fact-driven,

[01:01:22] results-driven.

[01:01:23] And so I

[01:01:24] started to lean

[01:01:24] more on

[01:01:25] numbers and

[01:01:26] metrics and

[01:01:26] things like

[01:01:27] that.

[01:01:27] And now I

[01:01:28] think that's

[01:01:28] pretty much,

[01:01:29] and what I

[01:01:30] like about

[01:01:30] it is it

[01:01:31] takes the

[01:01:31] emotion out

[01:01:31] of it a

[01:01:32] little bit

[01:01:32] because the

[01:01:33] facts,

[01:01:33] you know,

[01:01:33] the numbers

[01:01:34] are the

[01:01:34] numbers.

[01:01:34] And a

[01:01:35] lot of

[01:01:35] times like

[01:01:36] Robles,

[01:01:37] you know,

[01:01:37] I write the

[01:01:38] thing about

[01:01:38] Robles and

[01:01:38] I point out

[01:01:39] these numbers

[01:01:39] and people

[01:01:40] can agree

[01:01:40] or disagree.

[01:01:41] They could

[01:01:41] tell me they

[01:01:42] don't like my

[01:01:42] numbers,

[01:01:43] that they

[01:01:43] have better

[01:01:43] numbers,

[01:01:43] whatever.

[01:01:44] There's always

[01:01:44] a fan or

[01:01:45] two that

[01:01:45] will tell

[01:01:46] me,

[01:01:46] he's going

[01:01:46] to be

[01:01:46] good next

[01:01:47] year because

[01:01:48] they want

[01:01:49] to believe

[01:01:49] that or

[01:01:49] because,

[01:01:50] well,

[01:01:51] Edgar's there

[01:01:51] now,

[01:01:51] so it's

[01:01:52] going to be

[01:01:52] good.

[01:01:54] And that's

[01:01:55] fine.

[01:01:55] I mean,

[01:01:56] fans can

[01:01:56] fan how they

[01:01:57] want,

[01:01:57] but what I

[01:01:58] like to be

[01:01:59] is rooted

[01:02:00] in fact and

[01:02:01] in data so

[01:02:03] that it doesn't

[01:02:04] mean I'll be

[01:02:04] right,

[01:02:05] but at least

[01:02:06] it makes me

[01:02:07] consistent in

[01:02:07] where I'm

[01:02:08] coming from

[01:02:08] on things.

[01:02:11] That's awesome.

[01:02:12] Luke,

[01:02:12] this has been

[01:02:12] really,

[01:02:13] really cool.

[01:02:13] Thanks so

[01:02:14] much for

[01:02:14] taking some

[01:02:15] time to talk

[01:02:16] Mariners with

[01:02:16] us.

[01:02:16] Again,

[01:02:17] we've followed

[01:02:17] you from

[01:02:17] afar forever,

[01:02:18] so to

[01:02:18] actually get

[01:02:19] to sit down

[01:02:19] and talk

[01:02:19] with you has

[01:02:20] been really

[01:02:20] fun.

[01:02:21] For everybody

[01:02:21] listening,

[01:02:22] if you want

[01:02:22] to check out

[01:02:22] Luke's work

[01:02:23] and you don't

[01:02:23] know him

[01:02:24] already,

[01:02:24] which you

[01:02:24] should,

[01:02:25] again,

[01:02:25] you can

[01:02:25] follow his

[01:02:26] newsletter,

[01:02:27] Mariners

[01:02:27] Consigliere,

[01:02:28] you can follow

[01:02:28] him on Twitter

[01:02:29] at Luke

[01:02:29] underscore

[01:02:30] Arkins.

[01:02:31] Thanks again,

[01:02:32] Luke.

[01:02:32] Hopefully we

[01:02:32] get a chance

[01:02:33] to talk

[01:02:33] again down

[01:02:34] the road.

[01:02:34] We enjoyed

[01:02:34] it.

[01:02:35] Hey,

[01:02:35] thanks guys.

[01:02:36] Thanks for

[01:02:36] having me.

[01:02:36] It was a lot

[01:02:37] of fun.

[01:02:39] That was a

[01:02:40] really fun

[01:02:40] conversation

[01:02:41] with Luke

[01:02:41] Arkins.

[01:02:42] Again,

[01:02:42] if you guys

[01:02:42] are not

[01:02:43] already

[01:02:43] following

[01:02:43] him,

[01:02:44] go follow

[01:02:44] him on

[01:02:44] Twitter

[01:02:45] at Luke

[01:02:45] underscore

[01:02:46] Arkins

[01:02:46] and go

[01:02:47] check out

[01:02:48] his newsletter,

[01:02:48] Mariners

[01:02:49] Consigliere.

[01:02:50] He really

[01:02:50] is awesome

[01:02:51] and knows

[01:02:51] his stuff

[01:02:51] extremely

[01:02:52] well,

[01:02:52] so we

[01:02:53] really appreciate

[01:02:53] all his

[01:02:54] time.

[01:02:55] TJ,

[01:02:56] as this

[01:02:57] episode comes

[01:02:58] out,

[01:02:58] again,

[01:02:58] it's getting

[01:03:00] out on

[01:03:01] Wednesdays

[01:03:01] and Fridays.

[01:03:02] Last couple

[01:03:02] weeks,

[01:03:03] it's been

[01:03:03] Tuesdays

[01:03:03] and Fridays

[01:03:04] because of

[01:03:04] the holidays.

[01:03:05] So,

[01:03:05] as we

[01:03:05] put this

[01:03:06] out,

[01:03:07] year two,

[01:03:09] year two

[01:03:09] of the

[01:03:09] Marine

[01:03:10] Lair Pod

[01:03:10] in the

[01:03:11] books

[01:03:11] coming to

[01:03:11] a close.

[01:03:12] It doesn't

[01:03:13] really feel

[01:03:13] like it's

[01:03:14] been two

[01:03:14] years,

[01:03:14] I gotta

[01:03:15] be honest.

[01:03:16] It has

[01:03:17] flown by.

[01:03:18] Yeah,

[01:03:18] very,

[01:03:19] very cliche

[01:03:19] thing to

[01:03:20] say.

[01:03:21] And as

[01:03:22] much as

[01:03:22] we did

[01:03:22] in year

[01:03:23] number one,

[01:03:25] in year

[01:03:26] number two,

[01:03:27] it was,

[01:03:28] as you would

[01:03:30] have a

[01:03:31] lot more

[01:03:32] challenges

[01:03:32] this year

[01:03:33] that were

[01:03:34] interesting

[01:03:34] to come

[01:03:35] over.

[01:03:36] But I'm

[01:03:37] really proud

[01:03:38] of us.

[01:03:38] I'm proud

[01:03:38] of what

[01:03:39] resulted

[01:03:40] of this

[01:03:41] year,

[01:03:41] both good

[01:03:42] and bad,

[01:03:43] because we

[01:03:44] had to learn

[01:03:44] a lot.

[01:03:45] And we

[01:03:46] did things

[01:03:47] we had yet

[01:03:47] to do.

[01:03:48] We went

[01:03:48] traveling as

[01:03:49] a podcast

[01:03:49] for spring

[01:03:50] training,

[01:03:51] for the

[01:03:52] winter

[01:03:52] meetings,

[01:03:53] for the

[01:03:53] all-star

[01:03:54] break,

[01:03:55] and it

[01:03:56] took

[01:03:57] the next

[01:03:57] level.

[01:03:58] And we

[01:03:58] saw the

[01:03:58] next level

[01:03:59] jump in

[01:03:59] viewership on

[01:04:00] YouTube,

[01:04:01] we saw

[01:04:02] it in

[01:04:02] downloads,

[01:04:03] we had

[01:04:03] big events

[01:04:04] during the

[01:04:05] season that

[01:04:05] really help

[01:04:06] us out,

[01:04:06] that we're

[01:04:07] tasked to

[01:04:08] essentially

[01:04:08] cover now

[01:04:09] with this.

[01:04:10] It's our

[01:04:10] responsibility

[01:04:11] when a

[01:04:11] manager gets

[01:04:11] fired in

[01:04:12] the middle

[01:04:12] of a

[01:04:12] season,

[01:04:13] hey,

[01:04:13] we're on

[01:04:14] it instantly.

[01:04:14] We need

[01:04:15] to have

[01:04:15] great stuff

[01:04:16] out as

[01:04:17] soon as

[01:04:17] humanly

[01:04:18] possible to

[01:04:19] make this

[01:04:20] thing work.

[01:04:22] So I'm

[01:04:23] proud of

[01:04:24] us,

[01:04:24] dog.

[01:04:24] We have

[01:04:25] had to do

[01:04:27] a lot

[01:04:27] this year,

[01:04:27] and we've

[01:04:28] made it

[01:04:29] through,

[01:04:29] and I'm

[01:04:29] very proud

[01:04:30] of that.

[01:04:30] Yeah.

[01:04:31] I echo

[01:04:32] all that.

[01:04:32] Well,

[01:04:33] maybe except

[01:04:34] the good

[01:04:34] and the bad,

[01:04:35] and I don't

[01:04:36] know how

[01:04:36] much bad

[01:04:37] we had.

[01:04:37] There was

[01:04:39] things you

[01:04:39] have to

[01:04:40] learn as

[01:04:40] you go

[01:04:40] to keep

[01:04:41] upping

[01:04:41] your content

[01:04:42] and make

[01:04:42] it as good

[01:04:42] as possible.

[01:04:43] I don't

[01:04:43] know if

[01:04:44] anything bad

[01:04:44] happened.

[01:04:45] I don't

[01:04:45] know if I

[01:04:45] phrase it

[01:04:46] like that.

[01:04:46] There was

[01:04:47] no bad

[01:04:48] result.

[01:04:48] There were

[01:04:49] things we

[01:04:50] have to

[01:04:50] get through

[01:04:51] this year

[01:04:51] that I'd

[01:04:53] say we

[01:04:53] learned

[01:04:53] from.

[01:04:54] Yeah,

[01:04:54] that's

[01:04:54] fair.

[01:04:57] But I

[01:04:58] didn't want

[01:04:58] to pin

[01:04:59] that in

[01:04:59] a funny

[01:05:00] way for

[01:05:01] people.

[01:05:01] What bad

[01:05:02] things happened

[01:05:02] to them

[01:05:02] this year?

[01:05:03] No,

[01:05:03] nothing like

[01:05:04] that.

[01:05:04] As you

[01:05:05] continue to

[01:05:05] move

[01:05:05] through

[01:05:05] content and

[01:05:07] try and do

[01:05:08] more and

[01:05:08] more things

[01:05:09] and try

[01:05:09] and put

[01:05:10] out the

[01:05:11] best product

[01:05:11] possible.

[01:05:12] There's

[01:05:12] just things

[01:05:13] that you

[01:05:13] learn as

[01:05:14] a result

[01:05:14] of that

[01:05:14] and just

[01:05:15] work through

[01:05:16] and the

[01:05:16] more you

[01:05:16] do it,

[01:05:17] the easier

[01:05:17] it gets

[01:05:17] and that's

[01:05:19] what we

[01:05:19] mean.

[01:05:21] Learning

[01:05:21] through doing

[01:05:22] new things

[01:05:22] which we

[01:05:23] did in

[01:05:23] year two

[01:05:24] because we

[01:05:24] tried to

[01:05:24] do a lot

[01:05:25] more.

[01:05:25] If you

[01:05:26] want to

[01:05:27] list out

[01:05:27] some of

[01:05:27] the