Episode 222: Will The Mariners Make The Playoffs In 2025? + Season Predictions

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 222 of the Marine Layer Podcast. It's our season prediction episode. We'll run through some key figures and pick whether or not we think these things will happen in the 2025 season. We also have a few straggling thoughts on the Cal Raleigh extension earlier this week.

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[00:01:15] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network recording on Wednesday afternoon March 26th when you're hearing this I can officially say to you Lyle happy opening day. You made it.

[00:01:33] It is opening day. It's opening day. I know on the Cal Raleigh podcast I admitted I'm finally ready for baseball to be back. I am. I am ready. I'm ready to start watching games again. I'm ready to see these guys back in action. I'm ready to get everything rolling. I'm just I still have a slight guard up. That's all. I think that's fair. I am ready for baseball to be back and I'm happy it is happy opening day everybody. I'm just still slightly guarded.

[00:01:58] If you're listening this heading out to the ballpark just know Lyle and I are going to be there Thursday Friday and Saturday. So if you want to see us just hit us up send us a DM send us an email. We'll be hanging out in the pen a bunch doing some fan content. So before the game that's gonna be a pretty good spot to come say hi to us if that's something you want to do or you just want to go to your seat. That's you know that's totally okay too. So if you're going out to the ballpark, you know, we'll be there for Thursday Friday and Saturday really, you know, really looking forward to baseball being back.

[00:02:26] But we still do have a few things to tie up with this Cal Raleigh thing Lyle. Where did you want to start? What is there a point that stuck out biggest that we didn't touch on on Tuesday? Let's let's start here and I think this is relevant. The lockout and you mentioned this Salk mentioned this today and I think it's a really good point.

[00:02:47] Could part of the reason Cal was interested in signing this extension now is he didn't want to mess around with his contract anytime slightly before obviously not during or certainly after the lockout where things might be changed in the structure of the game of baseball. He said no, let's get this done now. Let's let's map it out for people. So Cal Raleigh would have been a free agent the year after the lockout ended. So they would have after the 2026 season, right?

[00:03:16] We're predicting a lot of people predicting Jeff Passant's predicting there's going to be a lockout and it's going to be a long one. Cal Raleigh would not be a free agent until a full season after the lockout had concluded. So Cal, if he had not signed this extension would have played this year in arbitration. He would have played next year in arbitration. They would have had a lockout. Let's let's throw out an arbitrary number. Let's say they get locked out for a year before they solve their differences.

[00:03:43] Then Cal has to play an entire another season under a new compensation structure. I think that's what it sounds like. They're going to push for really hard. The owners will and then he's so he's gonna have to play that season after the lockout under that new compensation structure. And then he's a free agent or guy. Our team's going to open up their wallets after losing an entire year's worth of revenue to to essentially their goal is in during this lockout is going to pay less money.

[00:04:12] That's it doesn't sound like something Cal would want to do right. Our team's gonna open up their pockets and their wallets. Well, consider considering they already don't open up their pockets and their wallets before a lockout. No. Oh, sorry. Sorry. It's opening day. It's opening day. I'm not let's let's not do let's let's not quite go there today. It's a good day people. It's opening day. All right. Calm answer. Probably not.

[00:04:36] And then how's this ties into to other guys as well when we also talked about on Tuesday's episode, which by the way, if you want to get the full rundown on the Cal Raleigh extension, go check out that fresh reaction podcast. We had about Cal Raleigh getting extended. We also talked about other guys in this org looking for extensions. Logan Gilbert is on the same time service clock that Cal Raleigh is.

[00:05:02] If Logan Gilbert makes it to free agency, it's the same year after the lockout as Cal Raleigh is. Is Logan Gilbert. Think about this. Let me ask you this question. Would Logan Gilbert get three hundred million dollars? You would imagine after the lockout. Like because if he gets a 10 year deal, that's his market rate right now. But even say six at 30 per year. Could he get that after the lockout? It'll probably be tougher. Hmm. I don't think the players will ever agree to a salary cap.

[00:05:33] But if somehow one gets put in place, it's absolutely going to be tougher. Anyway, again, let's try to not get too much into the weeds of lockout talk on the day of opening day. But anyway, yes, it will. It will be tougher. So that may incentivize Logan to sign something earlier, which would be for the Mariners and for fans. Great. I think without you're right, getting too far into the weeds of the lockout. The point we made on Tuesday's episode was, oh, they'll use Cal Raleigh as motivation to sign an extension.

[00:06:01] Oh, Cal gives his endorsement of the franchise. Yeah, that like that definitely helps. And I think everything we said still rings true there. But I think there is also some other incentive to sign with the Mariners if you feel like that's the safest option for you. Like, again, the eight for 220 for Logan. Is it a little bit below his market rate? Yeah, probably is. But you avoid every bit of risk that would come along with what could be in the future. Right. Yeah, there's no doubt about it. So that's a big part of this.

[00:06:31] I actually don't think we mentioned. We obviously knew. We just forgot to say it on the podcast that Cal has a no trade clause in this contract. So that's something of note. He gives himself full power over the ability to not be traded, which I totally understand. And he's totally earned. So that's just another thing to note. I don't know if there's much more to say there. Right. Well, you can't dump his contract without his consent. That is true.

[00:06:58] Now, will they come to based on what they've done? That's that's that's what it looks like. So they cannot, without Cal Raleigh's approval, go on and do that. And I'd say it's notable for a certain extent because his salary escalates quickly as you you look at it goes from arbitration numbers, essentially, to then well over 20 million dollars a year for the final three years, including the vesting option, by the way, which is a fourth year over 20 million. Right. It's not it's not impossible.

[00:07:26] Again, with the timeline of a certain revenue shortfall of lockout, it's not insignificant. No, not at all. Couple more quick points. I would say one of them is, look, are we are fired up for Cal to get this extension. But in case we didn't make this clear on the podcast on Tuesday, this doesn't change much in terms of our opinion.

[00:07:54] And I'd say most people's opinion on the owners. Everybody's happy Cal got extended. But this team has to significantly raise their payroll meaningfully in 2026 and 2027 if there's going to be a changing of the guard and a changing of the narrative. Because if they just trade these pitchers, they trade Logan, they trade Kirby after signing Cal. Well, then we're right back where we started, if not lower. Because if you're just going to trade them when they get expensive. That doesn't do anything.

[00:08:24] Again, that probably lowers their payroll from even after from where they were before extending Cal. It does take years, I would say, of positive momentum and positive PR and good moves from the ownership group to offset years of poor PR moves. I think that's the simplest way to put it. You don't you don't get you don't change narratives based off of one one move. Yeah, I think I think that hammers it home if they spend the next couple of years making lots of positive moves.

[00:08:54] And some of this momentum keeps going forward. They start winning. They win a division title. Then you have then you have no. You know, the narrative will have to shift at least a little bit. Yeah, because it would be clear that what they have done has worked. But we're all in wait and see mode right now. It's the fan base has earned the say, hey, prove it to us. And then, you know, people are still able to make their own decisions at this. But personally, the way I look at it, if you prove it to me, then great. I can be happy.

[00:09:23] We all can be happy about this. We can move on. Yeah, we don't have to continue around like a whirlwind of negativity. I would prefer not to do that. But certain times call for certain situations at this point. So, yeah, no, if they prove us if they prove us wrong, we will change our narrative happily if they extend Logan. And again, all this doesn't even have to be through free agency. We're we're not two people that are just stuck on free agents. We were a bit this winter, and that's because there was an inability across the league market

[00:09:51] wise to trade prospects for proven bats. It just didn't exist out there. But again, if the Mariners extend Logan Gilbert and then they go out and make a trade for an impact player that takes on some money, for example, maybe they extend him at some point to things like that. Yeah. Sign us up for that. I don't I don't really care how the team gets made better, but it's going to involve investing in it monetarily. So Cal's a good start, but they got to do more. And then your last point. Yeah.

[00:10:21] Are we surprised Jerry DiPoto hasn't gotten in front of a mic yet and basically said to people and basically told people that. They were misjudged and evaluated totally unfairly for their offseason when in reality they extended a guy that was already on the roster and traded for Randy Rosarena. And that was their offseason. If I'm the Mariners, I'm probably glad that hasn't happened. But for us, I wish it did.

[00:10:49] Yeah, because some of you may laugh, but it's out of truth because you 100% true. I mean, you can't look anybody in the eye and say, just given the track record at this point, that he is totally, you know, that you have total belief that he wouldn't do something like that. Especially because he already would slip up and say that. Yeah. That he'd say when you look at our, you know, we consider extending a player on our own

[00:11:18] team and trading for somebody at the trade deadline as part of our offseason plan, which again, even if you understand the sentiment behind it, you just can't tell a fan base that. So no, you can't. And Cal Raleigh would have been under contract anyways. Right. For three more years. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Doesn't it doesn't hit home as hard, but you know, based on the reputation of, of some of the gaffes they've had publicly, it wouldn't, I don't think it would shock anyone for that. That to happen.

[00:11:44] I think the best course of action here is whenever it becomes official, like Jerry can put out the statement, say how happy they are to keep Cal, say how it's a great day for the organization. It's a great day for the fan base. And let's just leave it at that. Let's great. Perfect. Yeah. Let's, let's not even risk kicking the hornet's nest here with like, again, letting something like that slip out and say we were judged unfairly because in reality, we signed a guy on our roster and traded for Randy six months ago.

[00:12:15] I'm disappointed now. We didn't include this section in our, in our, in our, in our predictions episode. So before we actually officially get to the section, Lyle, let me present you with our first over under of the prediction segment. Ready? Yeah. Let me say June 16th over under June 16th before a PR gaffe. You know, it's funny. I made a note in my notes app and we never talked about this on the podcast.

[00:12:44] I made a note months ago saying if the Mariners just stay free of any disasters in the media, they'll make the playoffs. Because if you look at 2021, 2023, 2024, there were, there were a lot of disasters publicly that got out there. They missed the playoffs. I'm not saying this has any correlation. I just said, Oh, that's kind of an interesting trend. And in 2022, there were no gaps made the playoffs. So I said in 2025, can we just stay free of all that?

[00:13:15] And now I don't know where to be on this. Cause there have been some negative ones already. Justin Turner and season started yet. Lyle. No, but in 2021, I was including some of the Mather stuff and that was before the season started. So, and, but, but to be fair now in the last week there, there's been all this positive. So maybe it's balanced out again with the streaming service with Hanager with Cal. So I don't know where to stand on this now. Maybe, maybe the baseball universe has balanced it out a little bit.

[00:13:44] I don't think there's any offset things. I don't think, I don't think you can offset bad PR and looking over the course of those couple of seasons. All right. Cause yeah. I mean, they had positive PR moments then too. That's fair. Anyway, June 16th. I'm going to be honest. I don't even know if Jerry does a public media appearance before then. So I'm going to say over. Yeah. Good. Very good rationale. And you could say the same thing for Mr. Stanton. Yeah.

[00:14:13] I don't think, I don't think John Stanton would speak publicly. At least there wouldn't be anything published before then. Little do we know, then we'll wake up tomorrow and there will be something. Hopefully that's something as Logan Gilbert's been extended to. That'd be great. Well, I more of meant what happened at the beginning of last year. Oh, you mean that interview he did? Yeah. Yes. That's what I mean, which we have no idea because, well, it is currently Wednesday, Lyle. It's not Thursday yet.

[00:14:42] I remember us recording this episode, this very episode, our season preview, doing all the over-under win totals and everything like that and player props the day before, after he did that interview on King 5 last year. And this is after they traded for Rayleigh and they traded for Polanco and they traded for Gregory Santos. And everything had really shifted in terms of the momentum and the vibe around the fan base.

[00:15:09] And I remember you sitting on here the day before opening day. It's like, it is the day before opening day and now we're still talking about fucking payroll again. It's like, you're like, you're like, you're like, I think your words after that were God damn it, dude. So we've made it within 24 hours of opening day and we haven't had to rehash it. It's true. Yeah. Which is good. Just kind of, I'm going to be honest that June 16th, they only need to make it through tomorrow on opening day. That's it.

[00:15:39] That is, that's probably right. Again, I don't really see a world where either of them is going to do much speaking publicly this year. It like there's such lightning rods, both of them that I just don't see the benefit in them really doing it. At least not before Ichiro's hall of fame induction into Cooperstown or the Mariners weekend. That's, that's kind of it. Sorry.

[00:16:06] Jerry, Jerry will talk after the draft and stuff like that, but I just don't see a lot of it this year. That's still in July though. So that's over, over for both of us. Okay. Then yes. Over. All right. Way to kick it off. All right. Let's roll through some of these. All right. The first way I want to structure is we picked a few categories and honestly, who you think, who we both think will lead the team in these categories. Start off with the first one. Lyle, who's going to lead the team in hits?

[00:16:37] There's actually a few different ways you could go with this. It is a lofty bet and you have to bank on a lot, but can I go with Victor Robles? Can I bank on Cal statements to us about how he said, I think you're going to see the exact same guy this year. I think he's going to have another really great year. He's going to do it for a full season. He's going to hit out of the leadoff spot and he's going to be on base a lot. Yeah. Yeah. I think that is who I'm going to go with is Robles.

[00:17:04] It's off to a rocket of a start, man. Okay. I was, I'm pretty boring with most of my picks. I'm going to be honest because I picked Julio and you would think looking at last season, you're like, yeah, Julio had a down year offensively. Didn't hit for much power. Couldn't have, couldn't have dominated the hits category at all on this team. If you had to guess how many more hits did he have than the second place player last year?

[00:17:35] 25, 27 in a down season. Okay. Kind of hard for me to see anyone but Julio taking that, but if they get 700 plate appearance at a Victor Robles, which would be a career high to start, he would be also healthy the entire season. That kind of changes it. But I also, I don't see 700 plate appearances at a Victor Robles this year. It's a lofty, that's a lofty bet. So that's why I pick Julio.

[00:18:04] If it's not Julio and I decided not to go with Julio, who else are the viable options? Look, I think Cal's going to have a great year, but he's, he's not going to rack, he's not going to rack up the hits totals. I think the only two options are the two we chose. I think Randy would walk too much. I think, uh, I don't think Rayleigh's going to hit for a high enough average. I don't think Randy's going to hit for a high enough average. Who else? Like Garver, he's not going to get the plate appearances. Solano's not going to get the plate appearances.

[00:18:34] You need, you need a low walk rate, a high average, and a lot of plate appearances. And there's only two guys on this roster, I think, who are, are in that boat. Okay. He's going to hit the team in home runs.

[00:19:01] I'm anticipating he's not going to hit the ball on the ground quite as much this season. I think he looks into last year, realizes what he did wrong. And as he adjusted throughout last season, realized, yeah, I got to hit the ball in the air to be more valuable. And that's exactly what he did. He's going to rack up more extra base hits. He's going to hit more home runs. If the doubles go up, then I definitely think the homers are going to go up too. Because that means the ball is leaving the ground. Okay. I went with Cal. I went with the other pick here. But Cal hit 34 bombs last year.

[00:19:30] He has increased his home run total every year of his career. 2021, he obviously only had a couple because he didn't play that much. And 2022, he upped it. He had 27. And then he had 30 in 2023. And then he had 34 last year. Who's to say he can't up it again? Who's to say he can't get to 40? Let's see it. But outside of this last season, I would not be shocked if they finished within two homers of each other. Because that's what it's been in 22 and 23.

[00:19:59] That's how close they were, those two. Right. Cal last year had 14 more. But that was due to, as we mentioned, Julio hitting too many ground balls. If it levels out and evens out, it's going to be pretty close. You'd think Randy has the power. Randy's actually never hit more than 23 in a season. Yeah. No, it's not. I don't think it's going to be a Rosarito. Yeah. Luke Raley definitely has enough power. Not going to get the at-bats to do it. Well, unless they start letting them play against lefties every day.

[00:20:29] That's true. 700 plate appearances for Luke Raley too? Yeah. Let's, yeah. Stolen bases. This is kind of a one of two guy option too. I went with Julio. Who are your two? And Robles. I know you could throw Randy into that, but Randy's ceiling for stolen bases does not feel as high as Julio's and Robles'.

[00:20:54] So, look, Robles was on pace for just lighting the world on fire stolen base-wise last year. And he didn't play that many games. So, if somebody's going to pick Robles', look, I wouldn't say no. But I just wonder if Julio really, really swipes a lot of bags this year. And I actually think he's going to. So, I'm going to go Julio. I'm glad you brought up Julio. I'm really, really, really glad you did. So, Julio had 24 steals last year. I think some of that had to do with that he was just on base less.

[00:21:25] Well, he was also injured a decent amount. Remember with the ankle thing? Yep. Yep, yep, yep, yep. Correct. I would just like to call something back, actually. To last year. We had Julio's steal prop on here. 32 and a half. On this. I picked the under. And I think I said, yeah, I think Julio will get about 25. I just want to give myself a pat on the back for that.

[00:21:55] Anyway, I chose Victor Robles'. I actually don't think Julio's going to have that volume of steals. When Churchill said, they're going to steal so much it's going to frustrate you. I think that he's talking about everybody except Julio. I think Demo's going to steal a lot. I think Robles is going to steal a lot. I think Randy will steal a little bit more. But Robles, I think, is going to get the most opportunities out of anybody. Fair. Okay, I can buy into that. Sure.

[00:22:24] How about, as we shift to pitchers, Lyle, ERA? And we'll do starters because relievers are kind of finicky. You're not going to be shocked. Give me Brian Wu. I don't think it's going to be that far off between him and Logan. But that's who I'm taking. Oh, and Bryce Miller, too. Throw all those three kind of close together. But I'm going to go with Lou. Are we talking that they all finish within two-tenths of a run? It'll probably be around that.

[00:22:53] When I say that, I mean the difference between like a 2-9 and a 3-1 or a 2-8 and a 3. Yeah, I would say. You know what? I'll stretch it out a little bit. I'll say within four-tenths of a run. Or in other words, two-fifths of a run. But four-tenths is a little easier to think about ERA-wise. The reason I chose Logan, I choose him, number one, because he's the best pitcher in this rotation. Number two, I do feel like his path to the lowest ERA in this rotation is a pretty simple one. It's just not giving up as many homers as he did.

[00:23:22] He's had seasons, full-pitched seasons in the big leagues. I'm highlighting his second season when he had his lowest ERA, where he didn't give up more than 20 homers. He gave up 26 this past year. And with his stuff and his command, I just feel like that number is going to come down from 26. To lead the Mariners in ERA, I mean, we're talking about he could remove like four home runs off his total, and he could push in front of everybody else. Like that was the only real weakness he had this last year.

[00:23:51] If he allowed a Tarek Skubal level of home runs, Tarek Skubal allowed 15, I believe, last year, he would have been up there for the Cy Young at that point. Like that's how slim the margin is for Logan Gilbert. So that's why, I think that's why I'm picking Logan. But any of the other guys, I mean, I'm not going to be shocked at anybody. Yeah, I mean, Wu had the lowest ERA last year, to be fair. Yeah, he did. Yeah, it was Wu. But he threw much less innings, obviously. So we'll see how that all plays out as well.

[00:24:21] It's not like I'm trying to slight Logan here, because if we get to the next category. Well, and I'm getting to why. One, I think, again, it's very close between all those guys in terms of the ERA. But if you want to go to innings, the next category, yeah, I have Logan. It's Logan. I don't know how you argue this. No. He led all of baseball in innings last year. And his only competition in the rotation for innings is going to miss the first few weeks. You could throw Bryce Miller into that competition for innings at this point, too.

[00:24:51] But it's still probably going to be Logan. I mean, Logan threw nearly like two or three starts more worth of innings than Bryce did last year. It's just about how Bryce is now going to take that jump into year three. And that's when you really started to see Logan jump his innings total up as well. And all the development that Bryce has had with his pitches. I just mean Bryce could get a little closer. But yes, I'm going to pick Logan. I think that's as definitive as you'll find as a pick on here. Here's the question. Is Logan going to throw more innings than he did last year?

[00:25:20] It'd be hard because he almost got to 210 last year. I would say it's going to be around the same. But over under? Slight under. But I'll call it 203. Okay. That's still a very impressive inning total in today's game. I'll say over. Let's get Logan to 215. Why not? Okay. It's like one starts worth. And I think he probably has his goals on that as well. Sure. Wins above replacement.

[00:25:51] Again, how I said, saying that Logan's not going to get the ERA crown is not me trying to slight him because I gave him the innings. I said he'd be very close in ERA. And I'm giving him the F war. Just between everything that he does. And a lot of that has to do with how durable he is. How often he posts. How he makes every turn in the rotation. And goes deep into games. Along with him being a dominant right-handed pitcher. Yeah. He's going to lead in F war. Especially with Kirby being hurt. And war's a cumulative stat. So the more you pitch.

[00:26:19] The more it's going to accumulate on that. So I have Logan as well. I think we both agree on that. What about for position players? Position player thing is the easiest thing on planet Earth. Julio will roll out of bed and lead position players in F war. Yeah. Yeah. Because he's going to get three and a half on his own just defensively. Right. And he's going to get a hundred more played. If he's healthy, he's going to get a hundred more played appearances than Cal. Right. So that's going to solve that one. Okay.

[00:26:47] Here's a fun one that really caught me off guard. I could not believe it when I was reading this. Have you seen these ale manager of the year odds? I have. I don't know if everybody's seen them. So why don't you enlighten people? And I'm going to start this off before I actually give the odds out. So in case you were curious, Dan Wilson is the odds on favorite to an ale manager of the year this year. And I'm thinking, man, when was the last Seattle coach that did that?

[00:27:15] I mean, Scott could not for his life get that. 2022, he deserved it. And did not get it. Pete Carroll never won coach of the year in the NFL. We never, never get executives of the year either. But all of a sudden, Dan Wilson's the favorite at the beginning of the year. I like, I don't understand. But that's how DraftKings sees it right now. So Dan's at plus 350. Rocco Baldelli's at plus 600 in second place alongside Kevin Cash.

[00:27:46] So is Dan going to do it, Lyle? Is the thought process behind this after the Mariners missed the playoffs the last two years, after Dan was brought in midseason, after there was not investment in the offseason into the roster, is the thought behind this, since the Mariners are already projected to be a fringe wildcard team to begin with, that if Dan gets them into the playoffs, the award would go to him? Is that the thinking? Yes.

[00:28:13] I also think there's a little bit of voter fatigue for some, because Stephen Vogt won it last year, right? That sounds right. So they're not going to, so they wouldn't give it to him two years in a row. Aaron Boone has technically, I guess, the best team in the American League. And if the Yankees themselves only win 90 games, I don't think he would win it there. And there's just no overwhelming options, I don't feel like, in the American League.

[00:28:40] It really helps the league is so weak, top to bottom, at this point. So when you have the story that you described, it's a lot easier to sell. And he has some star power on his roster to bring attention to the franchise. And he's a first-year manager. He's very easy to vote for successful first-year managers in this manager of the year thing. I don't think he's going to win it, but I do think it's interesting that he's number one. This is true.

[00:29:09] And speaking of first-year managers, just to confirm, it was Stephen Vogt last year. Okay. So if you get into the playoffs, there's a decent chance. What do you think of their win total? 84.5? Over or under? Over. That win total, I think, is low. And don't confuse that with me saying they're going to make the playoffs. Hint, hint. We have another section coming up. But 84.5 is kind of low. I do think this team is as talented as they were last year. The team last year won 85 games. So, over.

[00:29:38] This feels like a pretty easy over. I'm with you. This doesn't lock in them playing in October. But that win total feels slightly low. How about this one, Lyle? Which prospect will put up the most wins above replacement this year? So there is one overarching easy answer to this. And it would be Cole Young. But just to look at some of the other options here.

[00:30:05] Say Cole Young puts up one win when he gets called up. Say it's even .7 wins. Which would not be some knock on Cole Young. Again, he's going to have to adjust and learn as he gets into the big leagues. Hopefully he does more than that. But there's a world where he just does that. And he's solid. And he has his moments. But he doesn't light the world on fire right away. And if that's the case, there's some other guys you can look at. There is Harry Ford. Which, obviously, his path is blocked a little bit more now than ever before.

[00:30:35] With Cal getting the extension. But could he still see time at some point? Could we see Logan Evans or Brandon Garcia take the crown in this regard? Depending on the workload that they get. And how much Garcia pitches out of the bullpen. Could we see it be Ben Williamson? If he's the first one up. And he really plays great defense. And he racks up some more that way. I am going to say it's Cole Young. But I don't think Ben Williamson trails him by that much.

[00:31:03] Those two, I'm with you, are the two front runners. The scenario I see here. As long as Cole Young's not a disaster defensively at second base. Which, in the minors, he's not. That sometimes people get overwhelmed when they get to the big leagues. Like Bobby Witt Jr., for example. His rookie year, if I remember this right, wasn't great defensively at short. He was awful defensively at short. Correct. And now he's a goal glover. Right. I was going to say, to Bobby's credit, he turned it around pretty fast.

[00:31:31] And a tough rookie year doesn't mean it's going to be your trend for your career. And it clearly wasn't for Bobby. But that can happen. It can happen. So, if Cole Young comes up and he's a below average hitter and a bad defensive second baseman in his first stint in the big leagues. And say you play Ben Williamson over a third, who has a stellar reputation defensively. And let's say he's like an 80 WRC+. Right. And he gets half a season worth or maybe a little bit less than half a season's worth of plate appearances.

[00:32:01] That's kind of like Josh Rojas. That's like one win right there. Roughly one win. And if Cole Young has those things working for him, he would most likely be below one. But I don't think that's going to be Cole Young. I think Cole Young could at least be an average to slightly below average big leaguer when he comes up. And that usually leads to about one war. And also, I mentioned 300 plate appearances for Ben Williamson. I don't think Ben Williamson is going to have 300 plate appearances. That's going to be a lot. I don't think his bat is ready for 300.

[00:32:30] So, that's when you would lead to Cole Young. So, Cole Young will be my pick there. Honestly, who says Cole Young isn't above average when he comes up? I'm not going to write that off. I'm not going to say he can't come up and hit really well and draws his walks and has the good approach. And is a 110 WRC plus hitter in his first year. Like, it's not going to be the easiest thing in the world. But Cole's game and his tools, they're pretty safe. And it may translate fast for him.

[00:32:59] So, we'll see. I'm with that. And that would make your case even easier. The sleeper here is, say our guy Logan comes up and has 15. So, in this scenario, someone gets hurt. So, Logan Evans has to come up and start. And they're going to ride him to the end of the season. He gets 15 starts. And they are 15 awesome starts. That's, I think, the only way Cole Young gets upset. If Cole Young isn't absolutely terrible when he gets up. That's the only way.

[00:33:29] Brandon just probably won't have enough work out of the bullpen to surpass him. Right. There was only one bullpen arm last year that suppressed one win above replacement. And that was Munoz. Right. That's how good you gotta be. Right. Okay, Lyle. Next one. Team MVP. We have Team Cy Young after this. So, I'm assuming this is position players. Yes.

[00:33:54] If Julio's gonna lead in war, and he does anything more with his bat than he did last year, it's Julio. We know that Julio kinda dictates how this season's gonna go for the Mariners. Or, I'm sorry. He doesn't kinda dictate. He dictates how this season's gonna go for the Mariners. Everything they didn't do in the offseason aside, this is now the roster they have, and it is built around Julio Rodriguez being a star. He has to do that. And if he does that, he's the MVP.

[00:34:23] Do you have a number that you'd like him to reach? Either war, or like WRC+, for him to achieve this? 130 would be nice, WRC-wise. Yeah. And it can be higher than that. If it goes higher than that, that means he really had an incredible year. But if he's a 130 WRC-plus hitter, that means he's in the All-Star game. That means he's gonna finish top 7-8 in MVP voting. It means he's probably gonna hit 25-30 bombs.

[00:34:53] It means he did what he was supposed to do. It's easier, I think, to name an MVP as well coming off the season he just came off, where for the first time in his career, he was not the most valuable player on the roster. It was Cal last year. So it gives him sort of that runway. It's like, oh, a little bit of a redemption arc, got this chip on my shoulder. I wasn't good enough next year. Let me prove you all wrong. And he goes out there and he does it, and I think everyone is better off for it. So yeah, I'm with you. Julio is my team MVP. And Cal will be second.

[00:35:24] Same. Now how about Cy Young? Are you gonna go clean sweep here on one pitcher? If the pitcher I pick to lead the team in F4, ERA, and innings doesn't win the team Cy Young, well, then we gotta fire the voters. Us? So I'm gonna choose Logan Gilbert, yes. We gotta fire the voters, a.k.a. that would be us. Yes, correct. And I don't wanna fire myself. I like doing this. It's alright. No, I'm kidding. I love it.

[00:35:53] Don't get it twisted. That was 100% sarcasm. We love doing this stuff. Genuinely. Anyway, it's Logan for me too. I know I didn't pick him to win the ERA, but you pick him to win the F4, you pick him to win the innings, you pick him to finish just slightly behind Wu in the ERA. Yeah. Logan's the ace of the staff. And there is nothing to suggest he won't be again. So where would Brian Wu be at innings-wise on this season? Well, he's not gonna get up to Logan's level, but a successful year innings-wise for Brian Wu,

[00:36:22] man, if he gets to 160, I don't know, 160 or 170, that's a win. Yeah, I was gonna say 170 would be nice. Good. It's like the bottom tier of a full workload. Somewhere in that range. 160 to 170 would be great. How many innings did Corbin Burns throw the year he won the Cy Young? It was not a lot. It was right around there. Yeah, I think it was right around there. You can look that up.

[00:36:51] Let me get to our next one. So I'm gonna have a lot of fun with this one. While in 2025, who's gonna be the Mariners team arch nemesis? This is a fun one. Corbin Burns threw 167 that year, by the way, that he won the Cy Young. Okay. So it's possible. Yeah. Arch nemesis? Well, I think we have the same one. So go ahead and present it. The answer for this question, I think, is really obvious.

[00:37:20] And it came to me this week. Because I'm sitting here getting ready for opening day, right? I'm scrolling through some highlights. And there's some exhibition games going on at some teams' home ballparks. The Astros had an exhibition going on. So I'm like, oh, cool. There was a home run hit in the Astros exhibition game that I really just rolled my eyes at. And I knew what was gonna happen to the Mariners this year was gonna piss me off. I watched Isak Paredes hit this little rinky-dink fly ball into the Crawford boxes in left field.

[00:37:47] And I sit there and I can totally picture that happening against the Mariners. It's gonna cause me to rip my hair out. I'm gonna throw this hat. This hat right here is gonna get thrown. Because Isak Paredes is gonna hit a flyout into the Crawford boxes against the Mariners. And you know what, Lau? Maybe it'll just cost them a playoff spot. Because it should be an out. But no, because of that ballpark, it's not. Isak Paredes is gonna hit 97 home runs this year. They are all gonna be in Houston. And they're all gonna be in the first row of the stupid Crawford boxes.

[00:38:18] 97 homers. Wow, my voice just cracked. This dude could legitimately hit 45 home runs. And not a single one will go over 450 feet. Or 400. 350 feet. Yep. Yes. Just little... Doop! When he hit the bowl, Lau, it's not like he smoked it. Even on the television. It was like a little just... Yes. You know what? I'm gonna amend my statement.

[00:38:46] My answer for arch-nemesis is not Isak Paredes. Oh. I have a different arch-nemesis. And truthfully, it doesn't really have anything to do with the player as a person or his game. Like the way Isak Paredes plays. Do you know who I'm going with? I actually don't. I'll let you try and guess. It's in this same division. Not the same team, I assume. Oh, it's the same team. Arch-nemesis. All right.

[00:39:17] I'm gonna spoil it for you, all right? Okay. My arch-nemesis for this season. Christian Walker. If that dude goes off in Houston this year, I am going to be insufferable on this podcast. And it has nothing to do with Christian Walker, the player. If he goes off in Houston, I am going to be insufferable. You should dress up as the Joker. We should actually have you dress up as the Joker one episode.

[00:39:46] If he, let's say, hits two homers in a series against the M's. I honestly might have to. Or at least do the paper bag. And all of you listening and you, TJ, sitting here listening know exactly why he's the arch-nemesis. Again, it has nothing to do with the player. It has nothing to do with his game. You know why I'm going to be insufferable if Christian Walker goes off this season.

[00:40:12] How funny is it that we picked two arch-nemesis off the Astros and neither of them were the actual biggest arch-nemesis, Sands Mike Trout, of the Mariners the last 10 years? In Altuve? Yeah. Well, actually, you can throw Jordan into that too because his single moment is a nemesis moment. It is. At least Altuve will be dropping balls and left. I'll have that to make it clear. No, no, no.

[00:40:41] It's opening day. It's going to be all positive. Everybody's excited for baseball to be back. I'm sorry. I just, I see red now when I think about Christian Walker. If he goes off this year, it's going to be a real problem. Okay, hijacking the conversation. We're going to move on to the next topic before Lyle blows off the top of his head. Lyle, the Mariners' playoff odds are the sixth best in the American League, which puts them in the field. Are they making it?

[00:41:11] Man, it is going to be real close, isn't it? Which lies out a lot of what we talked about this winter. All right, to answer the question. I can't even decide. You know what? I want you to go first. I legitimately did not write an answer down for this. This is the one question I did not write an answer down for because I could not decide. You go first.

[00:41:37] You know, the first time we were on Washington Sports Wrap, I got an opportunity to answer this question. And I'm going to answer it with the same efficiency I did on there. Ready? Mariners going to make the playoffs? Nope. Well, that's the show. Speaking of that, by the way, if anybody is curious, we'll be doing that once a month this year on Q13 Fox on Washington Sports Wrap. So we'll be on TV talking Mariners once a month. So check it out. That'll be the next one is April 1st.

[00:42:06] Tuesday, April 1st. 730. Right. Schedule may change a little bit as the year goes on. We'll see. But tentatively, it should be the first Tuesday of each month. So that'll be fun. But that's the answer I gave to Aaron. I can't wait to tweet that clip out. It's going to be so good. It's going to be so it's going to be so good. But that's my answer. It's going to be such a crowded field. The Mariners are going to do what they've always done in franchise history. They'll probably miss by a game again. Right. They will win 86 games and miss out because they didn't win 87.

[00:42:35] You're looking forward to tweeting that clip out like you're saying you're looking forward to them losing games. They're bound to lose four games in a row at some point. This is true. So. Are the Mariners going to make the playoffs? No. I would rather them make the playoffs. But, you know, this roster, if it's healthy the entire season, I could say yes, they will make the playoffs. But I don't think the roster is going to be healthy the entire season.

[00:43:05] There are some older players on the roster. The rotation has had a sterling bill of health for essentially two years. That does not happen. Does not happen. It is bound to regress at some point. And I don't think they're built to withstand regression. Okay. I'm actually going to take the other side. I say yes. They just sneak their way in at the end of the year. They will be a wild card team. All right. Yeah. So we're one for one. Before we get to the last question, let's take a quick pause here.

[00:43:33] We're going to talk to you guys about our friends over at Pogaccia's Pub 85. You need a place to go watch opening day or any of the games in the first weekend or all season long? Head over there. There are 20 TVs in the place, so you can watch the Mariners. You can watch March Madness as it continues to roll along. A bunch of different stuff. And there's awesome food and there's awesome drink specials always, especially during happy hour. If you go during happy hour, it's 2 to 6 p.m. on Monday through Friday. And drinks are $3 and $4, you guys. You're not going to find many deals like that in any other places.

[00:44:01] So if you want some good drinks, good happy hour deals, fun time with your friends, head over to Pogaccia's Pub 85 that's over in Kirkland. This sets up people perfectly for a second to last question, Lyle. This is the big one. Plus 2,800 World Series odds. Lyle, are the Mariners making the World Series? No. What? Yeah, I'm with you.

[00:44:29] Given that I can't pick them to go to the World Series after missing the playoffs. Maybe they should have got Christian Walker. Maybe they should have got Christian Walker. Maybe they should have got Christian Walker. Sorry, sorry. It's opening day. We're going to be positive. Sorry. My bad. My bad. It's opening day. Yeah, I don't think they make the World Series. This is great. This is fantastic. The last one I have for you. The Mariners' attendance in 2024 was 2,555,813. 14th in baseball.

[00:44:59] Will they draw more fans than that or less? Well, I'm going to give you credit for this because you pointed out, even in 2022 when they made the playoffs, they didn't have the attendance that they had in 2024. They really, really drew well last year. So, as a result of what was a season where they missed the playoffs last year, it's been two years in a row that's happened,

[00:45:28] an offseason that certainly has a lot of people frustrated. Yeah, I'm going to say it goes down a little bit. This is not to say it's going to look like the A's or anything like that. No, not at all. But I think, barring something drastic where they're just ripping off another 15-game winning streak like they did in 2022, or they're way up in the division, make a couple of just banger trades at the deadline for key impact guys. Unless it's something like that,

[00:45:57] yeah, I think it dips a little bit. I'm going to say under for a different reason. I think all of your reasons are valid. Before last year, 2023, and I had to tribute a lot of the last two years worth of attendance. Yes, the team has been very fun, but the playoff appearance does a lot to get people out to the ballpark, to get that number where it is over two and a half million fans. Before the last two seasons, the last time the Mariners drew two and a half million fans was 2007.

[00:46:26] It's a long time. That's almost 20 years ago at this point, that they last drew two and a half million fans. So to say they go under two and a half million is not some hot take. I think it's just reality of what the Mariners have historically drawn. They could draw 2.3 million. That's still a very good attendance. That's probably middle of the pack in major league baseball and good relative to the market size, but it'll be less than what they drew last year. And I think they will draw less based on a lot of the sentiment we've seen.

[00:46:55] There will be enough people that don't want to go to the ballpark that will cause this number to go under. Okay. I think that's all fair reasoning. Yeah. And I think that's our, that's our predictions. I was going to say that. I think that's our last topic too. With that, are we all ready for opening day? Are we ready for baseball again? I think so. And, um, starting next week, three episodes. Yeah. Not, not starting on Monday. It's the week after. Right.

[00:47:25] Yeah. So this'll be the last episode you hear from us for six days. Essentially. We'll let the first few days of the season play out. We'll certainly have plenty of takeaways. The next time we hop on a podcast. So next week will be two episodes, but yeah, brand new starting this year, starting in essentially a week. 7th. Yeah. So in a week and a half, we're going to do three shows a week. And I think one of those shows is going to be very centered around hearing from you guys

[00:47:53] and around hearing your voice and, and you guys sending in questions and things like that. So yeah, it's going to be fun. Not much is going to change other than we'll have more content for you guys. We're not going to do those live streams on Sunday nights anymore. We figured instead, let's just turn it into a podcast where we still get you guys involved anyway at one of the episodes throughout the week where you guys can send in a bunch of stuff. So that's the plan. We're looking forward to it. We are happy baseball's back again. I'm there.

[00:48:23] I'm now, I'm now fully ready, especially after the Cal extension. I'm ready to see baseball. I'm ready to see the action start. And hopefully you guys all are too. Look, we know how these years go there. There it's a roller coaster every year. There's going to be ups and there's certainly going to be weeks of downs and frustrations, but that is the beauty of a baseball season and how it shakes out at the very end is why we all watch. Here we go. Lyle let's go. Woo. All right. That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast.

[00:48:53] You guys know if you want to find all our work, it's all in one spot. Now it's all on a website, our website. It's MarineLayerPod.com. If you want to watch, if you want to listen, if you want to review, if you want to check out our Patreon, which we really hope you do. If you want to have your voice heard on some of these episodes when we go to three a week, a very, very big key. We'll explain more later, but it will be to get over to our Patreon and get involved because there's going to be some priority over there. So we hope you guys get involved.

[00:49:20] We're planning to roll some more stuff out with it where we just interact with you guys a bunch. We're looking forward to it. If you want to get some merch, well, you can get it anytime you want, but if you want a slight discount, 10% off running through the day after opening day. So that's Friday. If you use code MarineLayerPod. So go use that code and go buy some merch, go get yourself some merch. It's really cool to see it rolling out. We know people are already buying it. So shout out to all you guys. You guys are the best. All on our website. Go check it out.

[00:49:47] And you can find us everywhere on social media at MarineLayerPod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.