Episode 258: Is Cal Raleigh Closing The Gap On Aaron Judge For AL MVP?

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[00:00:57] I don't think I've really seen anything like it, like the Mariners were facing this weekend, but they take advantage of it, especially Cal Raleigh, especially Donovan Solano. We have some things to highlight with those two. And we have our number nine MLB Draft Spotlight. Your guys reminder, if you want to stay on top of everything we're doing, you can go right over to our website. That's MarinLayerPod.com where you can find everything, including our schedule for our live shows, you guys.

[00:01:21] And our next one is this upcoming Saturday, June 28th. It starts at 12 p.m. over at the Hall on Occidental. That's on Occidental Avenue, North End of Lumen Field, and it's brand new. You guys have just opened. This is our first chance to do a live show from there and your first chance to really check the place out. So we'd love to have you there. We're going to be doing giveaways. I think there's going to be some food and drink specials at this thing. We'll announce them later in the week when we have confirmation on it, but there's going to be some awesome deals. There's every reason for you guys to get out to the event.

[00:01:50] And then we're going to do a watch party for the Mariners game, which starts at 1 p.m. So again, that's all over on our website. Our merch is over on our website. And along with our Patreon, all our episodes, we'd love to have you get involved with all of it. Go get your merch, seriously. That's all over at MarinLayerPod.com. And then you can find us across social media at MarinLayerPod. Let's get it rolling.

[00:02:24] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording on Sunday evening, June 22nd. We'll talk about the Mariners here in a second, Lyle. How about our guy, K-Talk? Kyle Tucker! Kyle Tucker! See, now you guys are probably sitting here wondering why I'm cheering for an opposing player hitting two home runs against the Mariners.

[00:02:54] But you know what? Statements needed to be made. And I'll tell you, statements were made this weekend. Like, if only there was a solution for how to never face Kyle Tucker ever again. If only there was a solution. Is there a solution? I mean, I'm trying to scratch my head right now and think of what they could possibly do. Well, you could sign Kyle Tucker. Like, I think that sounds pretty good. We proclaim a Kyle Tucker weekend. He goes off against the Mariners.

[00:03:22] And then you make the decision, and maybe Jerry DiPoto took the trip to Chicago this weekend. And he says, I'm sick of it. I can't watch this anymore. I cannot watch Kyle Daniel Tucker with two different teams torment my franchise. We need to put an end to this. You sign him. You put him on the Mariners. And then for once in the franchise's history, Lyle, you get one over on the Houston Astros, and you laugh in their face. Ha ha ha ha ha ha. It's ours.

[00:03:49] It's no more Isak Paredes doing the gritty around the Mariners' clubhouse after he hits three Crawford box home runs against him. No, no, no, no, no. It'll be K-Tuck doing that instead. Oh, they should sign him. That's what you're saying. They should sign Kyle Tucker. Yes, they should. Yeah, they should. Well, maybe somebody listening to this podcast should take that message. The Mariners should sign Kyle Tucker. Nickel's worth of advice.

[00:04:16] I actually have a somewhat serious question for you off of this. If you swung a bat this week, a metal bat at Wrigley Field, do you think you're hitting one out? Yeah. You think so? Yes. I mean, I can still hit the ball decently well. If you put, like, 80 miles an hour out in front of me, maybe that's a little generous. Like, 80's not fast, but, like, you do have to still time it up and probably see somewhat regular bats for 80.

[00:04:46] You put 70 miles an hour in front of me, for example, like, yeah, I'll still hit it. You give me a few swings and you start to time it up. Like, I can still put it out of a normal high school baseball field with a metal bat, which is usually what? Like, 310 feet down the left field line or so? And if it goes out to the gaps, it's a little further. So, yeah, if you gave me a metal bat out at Wrigley Field this weekend with the wind blowing the way it was blowing, yeah, it's carrying out. I'm hitting it out. That is one of the craziest environments I've ever seen. Even me, who I'm not a power hitter.

[00:05:16] I never was a power hitter, though. In our intramural softball, I did hit a home run. It was a real homer. Me and you were the only two who hit homers. Wasn't your home run like a ground ball that got by the right fielder? No, it was not a ground ball. No, no, it was a gapper. All right. Gapper to right center. And it just kept rolling. It did keep rolling. And I'm fast, you know. I did also, in my effort to speed in that league, yeah, I was fast. You're fast? Yeah. Were you actually fast in high school? Not really. That's what I thought.

[00:05:46] I guessed myself up. Well. I was not. I also managed to lightly pull my hamstring in that league. Do you remember that? No. Yeah, I did. I was running a first on a fly ball. That really, that doesn't shock me. I was not in the greatest shape in college, so. It's not the most shocking thing in the world, but I did hit a home run. But it was not Lyle Goldstein who stepped into the box the first time and hit one probably 350 in the air.

[00:06:15] Your first swing, I think. Oh yeah, that one was torched. That one was pretty torched. But even me, I think I could hit a ball closer to the Ivy this weekend in Chicago. I feel really bad for all the Mariners starters. Yeah. Like Logan Gilbert went out there today on Sunday. His stuff still looked great. But literally, as soon as the ball finds a barrel on any of these bats, it's gone. Yeah. Dominic Canzone's first home run here on Sunday had an expected batting average of like 150. 150.

[00:06:45] It was, it's like 96 off the bat. High launch angle. Doesn't matter. It was gone. Yeah. Crazy. I mean, again, that was a pop-up that just kept carrying. It was crazy. All the cows homers were legit though, which is good. Yeah. Like, I'm not saying Canzone didn't square it up at all, but that's hit a T-Mobile park. I think that's an out. And you and I were talking about this from certain pitchers' perspectives. Like, Kirby gives up contact occasionally to leave the yard.

[00:07:15] Logan Gilbert, in the past of his career, had had a hard hit rate problem. Last year he didn't. This year he hasn't. But in an environment like this today, unfortunate for him, he ends up giving up four runs. I feel so bad for Emerson. How does Emerson keep getting himself in these situations? Like, he's on these stretches where he pitches so well. And then there's one outing where things just aren't, it's like, the situation is not right.

[00:07:41] Like, it's an unfair situation, a bad matchup, and all of a sudden he gives up an absurd amount of runs in the smallest period of time possible. That pushes his season air rate to make it look like it's bad and look like it's a lot worse than it actually was. Yeah. Because he gave up nine runs. There's no way to sugarcoat nine runs being anything other than a negative outing and a bad outing.

[00:08:04] But I mean, like, look at the environment he was pitching in and be like, what is he supposed to do? Again, you take those two starts out, and I know you can't just magically do that, but if you were to go on Fangraph splits and you take those two starts out, the two starts meaning his first one of the year and then this one here at Wrigley, he's got like a 3-3 ERA on the year or something like that.

[00:08:32] I mean, at least we put out a number entering this past start where we said if you took out his first start, he would have a 3-6 ERA. So it probably hovers more around that. But that's more what Emerson Hancock has done on the year. Who Emerson Hancock has been as a pitcher for the majority of this year is a guy who puts up about a 3-6 ERA, which is really good. But unfortunately, he had one tough start to begin the year where he couldn't get out of the first inning.

[00:09:01] And then he plays in this Mickey Mouse environment on Saturday where, look, Emerson has missed more bats this year, right? He has done a phenomenal job upping the velo, finding some more, yeah, finding a little more life in his fastball, missing some more bats. But he is a guy that pitches to contact and gets a lot of ground balls or balls in play that are makeable outs for his defense.

[00:09:27] Unfortunately, that wasn't happening this weekend because for a guy that pitches to contact, balls were going in the air. And they were going in the air every time they were leaving the yard. Like if I read you Emerson Hancock's stats for the season, Lyle, would you think that, like, does this like line up to you? Do you feel like he's been a negative war pitcher? Absolutely not. And again, if you take out those two starts, what is he? Fangraphs will not let me do that math for you, but I would imagine he'd be in the positive.

[00:09:55] But right now, Fangraphs has him at negative .3. They have his ERA at 5-4. Just watching, like, pitchers with a 5-4 ERA don't throw seven shutout innings. No. But unfortunate anomaly. And another reason, Lyle, I think ERA is a fake stat. Emerson Hancock has been much more a 3-6. This weekend actually is a prime reason why ERA is a fake stat. Of both sides. Yeah.

[00:10:24] Do you watch PCA going after those balls on Saturday? Yeah. Yeah, he dropped them. He dropped two of them. It looked like the exact same thing. And he's, like, casually running backwards. I got it. I got it. I got it. Wind blows it away from his glove. And then the official scorer will sit there, and they're not going to give him an error. They're going to say that's an earned run. Even though, like, everything was done correctly.

[00:10:48] Also, Pete Crow Armstrong may be the one outfielder in baseball that is better defensively than Julio. So if he's misplaying balls like that, you know that wind's a problem this weekend. I didn't see Julio misplay any. I mean, I don't know what you want me to tell you. PCA is an unreal defender. He is. He is. Just pointing out a fact. Wind could have been blowing a lot harder in that moment in time than when Julio was out there. That's fair.

[00:11:16] I did get a chuckle, though, that the two that PCA dropped, it was, like, the same route. He did the same thing twice. He, like, would glide backwards. He would go right, he'd go right, he'd go right, and then he'd fade back left, left, left, left. Stick his arm up. His shoulders were rotated the exact same way, and the ball landed in the same spot twice over his other shoulder. Yeah. Crazy weekend.

[00:11:45] Again, Emerson Hancock has been much more a 3-6 ERA pitcher than a 5-4 ERA pitcher. Are you putting any meaning into the fact they won this series? Because, ultimately, there are going to be some people who are going to say, Hey, guys, they just went on the road and they took two out of three against one of the three best, four best teams in the National League. Even though this team had not been scoring runs much at all in the month of June, they entered the series with a bottom third offense in the month of June,

[00:12:14] and yet they go into Chicago and win. Do you take this series as anything serious? No. No, I don't. I don't either. Because the offensive environment was absurd. And the Mariners have now done this too many times this year. They have lost the trust of the fans to buy into a series as a momentum builder. Every time they look like they're dead in the water, they start to crawl their way out of it a little bit. When they lost that series to the Diamondbacks, they look dead.

[00:12:42] And then they come back and they sweep the Guardians. And then when they start to play some good baseball and you start to build up some confidence again, that's when they'll go and lose three of four in Minnesota where they're going now for this upcoming week in a four-game stretch. This is what they do. If the Mariners play two good weeks of baseball in a row, we can sit here and have a different conversation. But to ask either of us or any fan to buy into one series at this point isn't just or fair.

[00:13:11] We've seen it too many times this year. They just do too many 180s too often to buy into one series as a trend. Egal, ob Sie gerade erst beginnen oder Ihr Sicherheitsprogramm erweitern, herausragende Sicherheitspraktiken zu demonstrieren und Vertrauen aufzubauen ist wichtiger denn je. Vanta automatisiert die Einhaltung von ISO 27001, SOC 2 und mehr, spart Ihnen Zeit und Geld und hilft Ihnen, das Vertrauen Ihrer Kunden zu stärken.

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[00:14:09] Well, then I'm going to get you to buy into something that's a little bit more serious and a little bit more consistent this season. Let me know if you've heard this idea before. Cal Raleigh. He's pretty good. Yeah, he is pretty good. I'd even say he's elite. You would? Yes. Oh, that's good. Because if you weren't, that was going to be, if you didn't say that, that was going to be the quote card. Cal Raleigh is an elite. Yeah.

[00:14:38] Can we still put it as a quote card? I mean, is it going to be in there that it's a joke? Maybe. I feel like some people wouldn't take too well to that. Well, given that I do, we do know for a fact that there are plenty of people who don't actually read the things we post before they comment on it. Yeah. Yeah, I think so. Yeah. I think they'd find a way to do it. No, Cal Raleigh is very, very much elite.

[00:15:07] I mean, we're not even going to talk about the best catcher in baseball at this point because despite what the Dodgers social team tried to post as propaganda this weekend. Oh, my God. That is incorrect. It's like I'm looking for Will Smith on the Homer charts. Where is he? Can you see him? Now, there are categories where Will Smith ranks very high and Will Smith is absolutely the second best catcher in the game and has had an unreal year. But sorry, nobody's holding a candle to Cal Raleigh. No.

[00:15:36] The only person that is, it's not even a catcher. Aaron Judge. The two best players. Sorry. When you get to players in baseball, because we've moved past catchers at this point, the people holding candles to Cal Raleigh, fine, there's more than one. It's not just Judge, but it is Judge, Shohei, Freddie Freeman. That's the group. The two best players in baseball this year in 2025 is Aaron Judge and Shohei. Oh, sorry. Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. Shohei's not on that list this year.

[00:16:06] I mean, he's been really, really good, but he hasn't been like those two. Exactly. That's where the conversation is. And yeah, Shohei will get back on the mound, but I don't know how you make a case for anybody else this year. And Cal, like, even with the environment this weekend, continues to get better somehow. Like, he's already been great and it continues to get better. It must have been his trip on PMT, I think. I think PMT motivated him this weekend.

[00:16:32] He went and stopped by the barstool office before Friday's game, or during the off day on Thursday. And they're going to have him on PMT. I believe it will be out the same day this episode comes out. I can't wait to listen to that. It's going to be very interesting. Cannot wait. I think they might have given him some good juju there. Good. I hope so. I mean, they were tweeting out their PMT Saber metrics all weekend. They said, big dumper, ice cream. You know, ice cream's eaten out of the cream machine. One. Home runs hit. Four. Yeah.

[00:17:02] Pretty good. Do you know the other thing I'm starting to think this weekend when I was watching Cal? I don't think his MVP case is as absurd from a national perspective anymore as it was maybe even a month ago or two weeks ago. I'm starting to think as these weeks go along, it is getting more and more likely that he is going to be a legitimate MVP candidate. I actually think that some of the things he's been doing have been actually like it will

[00:17:30] it will bring him and judge closer as the season goes along. The gap is closing. Did you know the war gap between the two of them is less than one now? It used to be one and a half closer to two. It's now less than one. And if you want to go back to May 1st at this point, Cal Raleigh has been a better player than Aaron Judge has been. He's been more valuable by war. He's been a better hitter by WRC+. He plays the more demanding position.

[00:18:01] That sounds like a more valuable player. And guess what? That's a longer stretch of the season than that stretch earlier on the season where Aaron Judge was clearly the best player in baseball, which has propped him up to get where he is right now. I don't think I'm crazy by saying that. And the MVP isn't always the war award. It doesn't just go to the guy with the highest war every year. Not never, but not always. If they end the year and they're a win apart, there's absolutely a world Cal Raleigh wins

[00:18:28] the MVP, especially given the position he plays, the true value to his team in terms of how good they'd be if you took the player off the roster doing Judge versus Cal. And paired with what you're talking about on a national perspective, you're even just noticing it in the headlines. You talk about him going on Pardon My Take. I know that sounds like a joke to some people, but that is the biggest sports podcast on the planet. They're sitting there saying, we want Cal Raleigh on our show. He's on SportsCenter, sometimes leading headlines all the time.

[00:18:57] He's leading baseball highlights. He's all across MLB Network. He's across all the baseball social channels. Nonstop, nonstop, left, right, up, down. It's Cal Raleigh. That's not normal for a baseball player in Seattle, especially when you're not Julio Rodriguez, who's marketed incredibly well on a national level. You are noticing, even getting away from the numbers, even getting away from the game-to-game play, you are just noticing from a 3,000-foot view and from a true national scale, the magnifying

[00:19:26] glass is on this dude. And it is on this dude with a big zoom on it. And that's exactly what they need, because that's the only way he is going to win an MVP award over a New York Yankee. That is the only way it's going to happen. Because guess, if the Yankees go to Chicago, guess who's not going on PMT? Probably Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge is not going on PMT. I could probably stamp that, if there were odds for that. Doesn't do many interviews.

[00:19:54] I was going to say, to be fair, Judge doesn't do much at all. That's exactly the point. And that's to Cal's benefit right there. He needs to be liked by everybody to win this award. Because ultimately, it's just like All-Star voting. It is a popularity contest. Yeah, your stats need to look good, but you also need to be right in front of people's faces all the time, especially when two-thirds of baseball writers are asleep by the time your games start at home. And to be fair, Cal is liked by everybody.

[00:20:23] I don't think I've ever heard of somebody saying they don't like Cal Raleigh, except for maybe a few absurd Blue Jays fans out there on Twitter. But... Johnny Junta? You know what? I don't even think our buddies over at the Gate 14 pod are like anti-Cal Raleigh haters. I think Johnny gets fed up when Cal beats them, but I don't think he's a Cal hater. There are some people in the deep versus of Blue Jays Twitter that really like to take some shots at Cal because he torments them. But anyway, he's liked by everybody.

[00:20:52] And it's one of the things about Cal Raleigh that I just continue to be fascinated by. Which is, not only are you the busiest guy on the roster every day between having to prepare a pitching staff and do game reports and scouting reports and everything that goes along with being a starting catcher that plays 150 times a year, but then everything he does offensively and everything he dedicates to being a switch-hitting dominant offensive catcher as well. And then when you factor in the off-the-field stuff with the...

[00:21:20] When he's got time, Cal Raleigh signs a lot of autographs. He will stand around and sign a lot of baseballs and a lot of photos for a lot of people paired with everything he does out in the community and all the different charity events that he'll do and all the different community events. And then to your point about the media, he will do interview after interview. It's amazing because most of the stars, by the time they get to this point, they cut a lot of it off. They prioritize their time. They prioritize their interviews.

[00:21:50] But Cal does everything, man. And it's what makes them just so awesome. It's worth every cent of that contract. It is the... I wouldn't say it's a rare occurrence, but usually when guys get paid, they don't then have their career year. They will have their career year in order to get paid. And then once they get paid, they'll still be very good, but they will never get to that point they were before the contract because, like every human nature is, it motivates you to get to what you want.

[00:22:18] And then you have it. And people change at that point. But Cal is not. In fact, he has somehow found a way to get better. And it could lead him to something that Mariners have never done, that many American League players have ever done. Simply put it, with the four home runs he hit this weekend, he is now back on pace to beat Aaron Judge's American League record and get into the names of Sosa and McGuire and Barry freaking Bonds. He's back.

[00:22:47] He's back going to the mid-60s right now. 31 home runs in game. He has played 75 games this year. 31 home runs in 75 games. Or 76. One of those two. You know who didn't have 31 home runs when he last hit 60 home runs? Aaron Judge, at this point, did not have 31 home runs. He had 29 in 2022. Hmm. Do you think he gets there? Cal? Yeah.

[00:23:15] If I have to predict right now, God, you're going to put me in a box, aren't you? Either I'm a hater or I'm wrong. Well, do you want me to answer too, just in case? Oh, sure. Yeah. Actually, yeah. We'll do that. I'm going to say Cal ends up with like 58. That's what I was going to say. I think the odds favor to pick no if you're one of the two of us. But that's not to say he's not going to have some just jaw-dropping season when the numbers all add up at the end.

[00:23:45] Yeah. I mean, he's almost a lock to get over 50. Oh my God. Voice crack. That's how excited we are about Cal. He's almost a lock to get over 50 at this point. Right? And I'll go higher than that. Yeah. I would. How about this? I think he's going to break Junior's Mariner single season record. I think he actually gets above 56. But I don't think he quite breaks Judge. And he's going to do it against harder pitchers with a ball that is dragged more than ever. Here's something I heard about that someone made me think about today.

[00:24:14] Is MLB going to give him the Goldilocks balls like they gave Judge in 22? 22? And if people were unfamiliar with that, Major League Baseball and some people, Major League Baseball never admitted this, by the way. But there are people who went and studied the balls that were used in games that Aaron Judge was playing in down the stretch of 2022 to give him essentially a juiced ball to go chase the home run record. And it was just hit just the games he was in.

[00:24:41] Everyone else played with the same ball except for Aaron Judge, who played with a ball that was a lot juicier and flew a lot further when he was going for Roger Maris' record. Does Cal get the same treatment? Because right now the balls this year are supposedly traveling less than they ever have. And Cal's like, huh, doesn't matter. I'm still going to hit 60. If they start giving him the Goldilocks balls, you're going to hear from Roger Maris Jr.

[00:25:10] paying off the league to not let him use them. Roger Maris Jr. is now going to come out on a campaign against Cal Raleigh because that record apparently can only be held by a Yankee. That's why they won't give him the juiced balls. Oh, they can't let a precious Yankees record get broken. Oh my God. You can think about it in this context, though. You know, the only members in the American League of the 60 home run club are Yankees. You realize that? Could you just imagine that?

[00:25:39] The third guy to get into it isn't a Red Sox, isn't a Cub, isn't a Dodger. Well, no, sorry. We're talking AL. Sorry. Not a Red Sox, not a, you know, who are the other big market teams? Right now, the members of the 60 home run club are a Giant, Cub, Cardinal, and Yankee. Could you imagine a Seattle fucking Mariner in that group?

[00:26:06] It's like putting a Colorado Rocky in that group. Except the Rockies should have done it by now with their environment. You would think. But no. No one's had Big Dumber. No. So yeah, I'll say he gets to that. To answer your question. You'll say he gets to 58. Yeah, I said he'd get above Junior. So 57, 58. Okay. So, but to answer your question, yes. If you're Major League Baseball, you should start giving him the Goldilocks balls to get to the record.

[00:26:35] Hell, I'll even one-up it. Give him the 2019 baseballs. Then he'll really get there. I mean, the 2019. You might hit 70 if that's the case. For those who don't remember, the 2019 baseballs legitimately were like if you injected steroids into a baseball. Here's something I've also been thinking about. Barry Bonds holds the record for most home runs before the All-Star break at 39.

[00:27:03] The Mariners have three weeks until the All-Star break. Right? He's going to get close. It's three weeks. Let me count the amount of games they have left. Yeah, three weeks. Because in three weeks, we'll be in Atlanta. That's right. So, he has 31 right now. He has 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. This is great podcasting.

[00:27:30] 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 games. Can Cal Raleigh hit 7 more home runs? Or sorry, no. 8 more home runs or 9 if you want to break it in that stretch. Man. 9 and 19 games. I said 19, right? Yeah. You either said 18 or 19, but yeah. Okay. Close enough.

[00:27:59] 9 home runs in 18 games. Because then guess where he's on pace for? Is it 18 or 19 games? God, do I have to... Let's reread the schedule again. Hang on. Let's just count how many off days they have. How about this? You know what? Don't even bother. Don't... You did bad podcasting once. Let's say this. Can he hit 9 home runs in just under 20 games? Yes. He's hit 5 in his last 5 days. Yeah.

[00:28:28] If he does do that, then he's not... He's not on pace for Aaron Judge. He's on pace for Barry Bonds. That's nuts. I know! Oh! So then at that point, you cannot tell me that Aaron... Because Aaron Judge has a higher war, he deserves to be over him. You cannot tell me that. I'm also starting to think that Aaron Judge's war here is ballooned a little bit. I'm starting to think this. Aaron Judge... Best hitter in baseball.

[00:28:58] Will not deny that. Absolutely correct. Aaron Judge's batting average on balls in play this year is over 450. That is unsustainable. That is not going to last all year. He had a 360 batting average on balls in play last year. Was still a little bit on the luckier side, but when you're as big and as strong as he is, okay, that's fine. But Aaron Judge is not going to maintain a 450 batting average on balls in play this year.

[00:29:25] What happens if that number drops 100 points? How does his offense stack up next to Cal if not one of every two balls, essentially, he puts in play as a base hit? Then Cal's over him. And to answer your question, Aaron Judge will not have a 470 batting ball year. That just doesn't happen. It's going to come down. And when it does, this race could get even closer than it already is. A large part of his war buildup

[00:29:53] is because of just the volume of hits that's dropped in. He's a great defender, too. Don't get me wrong out there in right field. One of the best defensive right fielders. But his offense carries a lot of this. But he's had a larger volume of offense because all the balls he's putting in play are landing as hits. And Cal doesn't have the same success when he puts the ball in play. Here's another thing I think about, too. Aaron Judge also hits a lot of balls in the air and he hits a lot of home runs, just like Cal Raleigh does.

[00:30:22] When you hit a ball in the air, the batting average on balls in play is going to be a lot lower because fly balls have the lowest batting average of any of the batted balls that you have. But they also yield the best results when you hit them the farthest. That's why guys chase them. So Cal's... It's not like the most surprising thing that Cal has a number that low. Did you know that when Barry Bonds hit 73 in 01, his BABIP was 266? What? Yeah.

[00:30:52] Because he was... Also a note about BABIP, home runs are not balls in play, so they don't count. Oh, right, right. So you take 73 of your hits and you throw them away. Right. Then it gets a little bit lower and he's trying to hit a lot of fly balls. Yeah. So you could make sense of it. But then why is Aaron Judge's 450? That is wild. You're telling me he hits all these fly balls and half his balls still land in his hits? No. Mm-mm. A 266 BABIP for Barry Bonds in 01

[00:31:22] still sounds wild to hear. It sounds fake. Yeah. Like he was way too good for that BABIP. But again, when 73 of those balls leave the yard, I get it. The thing that's making me more confident in this is the number since May 1st. And the gap is growing a little bit. Cal has been over half a win better than Aaron Judge since May 1st. He's been a better hitter. Hits for more power. Strikes out less. Walks just as much. Plays a more difficult defensive position.

[00:31:51] What more do you want? Don't tell Yankees fans that. Sorry, tough to hear. You guys don't get everything. Never. I mean, first they lose Juan Soto, then their precious Aaron Judge. Juan Soto! No, he's not paying attention to us! No! And then their precious Aaron Judge doesn't win the MVP. Man, that might be the year from hell for them. I gotta tell you. Loses his MVP to a Seattle Mariner.

[00:32:21] Yeah. That'd be crazy. All right. I have three more quick Cal Raleigh things before we wrap this segment up and go to our next topic. First one. Well, okay. Two are positive. One are negative. I think I'm gonna do the positive. I think I'm gonna do the positive ones first. Number one. Our friend and friend of the pod, Jordan Schusterman, tweeted this out today. And I think it's worth reading because this is a ridiculous stat. But he tweets, only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Eugenio Suarez,

[00:32:50] and Kyle Schwarber have hit more home runs this season than Cal Raleigh has hit left-handed. So let's say that again. Cal Raleigh has 21 left-handed home runs this year. Only Judge, Shohei, Geno, and Schwarber have more than that. Cal Raleigh also has 10 home runs from the right side while hitting 315 with a 371 on base, a 708 slugging percentage from the right side. So again, Cal Raleigh is fifth in the league in home runs

[00:33:20] if you just take his left-handed home runs into account. Then you factor in the fact that he's hitting 315 from the right side with 10 bombs and an OPS way over 1100. That's ridiculous. Do you have two more? You have two more. I'll let you go. I have a couple last fun Cal things to throw in here too. Okay. Number two. He's doing the derby at this point, right? He has to. I mean, he said he won't. You cannot lead the league

[00:33:50] in home runs and skip the derby. You can if you really decide you don't want to do it and I'm sure there's going to be some people whether it's from the team or from Cal's own camp that might suggest he should just take the downtime because you know that derby takes a lot out of you. That being said, man, how many chances do you get in your life to do the derby? I don't know if Cal's going to hit like this every single year. Like the odds obviously go against that. So in a year like this where obviously the league's going to be begging for you to do it

[00:34:20] where fans are going to be begging for you to do it I feel like this is the year he's got to do it, right? I think he'll do it. You got to do it once. Yeah. And plus he already got asked about it a couple weeks ago and he said, yeah, in a heartbeat I'd do it. I want to do it. Also like people be like, oh, it would ruin his swing. He'd be trying to hit home runs too much and hit the ball in the air. It's like, that's what he already does. Yeah. It's literally already his swing. Again, people like Juan Soto said it helped him. The derby helped him. Which again,

[00:34:49] it's less about that for me. I'm not worried about Cal's swing getting messed up. It's more about the stamina part of it and like how much it's going to take out of him. Will it tire you out? Here's the big question. What side would he hit from? Left side for the most part but I bet you he'd do something like what Adley did a couple years ago at T-Mobile where for the most part he goes from the left side and then maybe for the final minute if he gets the 440, you know, the 440 foot distance home run which buys him the extra time. I bet you then he'd switch over to the right side

[00:35:18] because it could save him a little stamina and he does something cool and switches over in the derby. I think his right-handed swing would play fine in the derby. It's smooth. It's quick. It's a little bit less effort. Again, I think he'll do both if I had to guess. He will do something like Adley did. His left-handed side he has more power for the most part I'm sure he's going to go that direction but I bet you he switches over to the right side at some point though to be fair I think the right field wall is higher at Truist Park in Atlanta than the left field wall so

[00:35:48] The right field wall is or hitting sorry hitting the left is a little bit more favorable Right. Right. But I still think for the most part he'll go left-handed but again I think he's going to do it. The only thing that would be the holdup is because he takes such a toll being a catcher every day and everything he does every day and playing almost every day would doing derby derail him at all or really tire him out for following games when they get back into play that being said I would I would trust

[00:36:17] Cal to figure it out even if that's the one risk I'll trust Cal that he figures it out I'm waiting for the negative shoe to drop now Well no I'm going to end with this you got to read your couple last Cal things too Okay Well in case people were unaware Cal became this weekend the first catcher to ever hit 30 home runs before the end of June he's now tied for or he is third all time in 30 homer seasons by a catcher he's behind Mike Piazza Roy Campanile and Johnny Bench each have four and these are the only

[00:36:47] players Lyle to think of this list to hit 30 home runs before the all-star break in Major League history Babe Ruth Ken Griffey Jr. Sammy Sosa Mark McGuire Barry Bonds Luis Gonzalez Albert Pujols Chris Davis Shohei Otani Aaron Judge and now Cal Raleigh has his name on that list with Babe Ruth Mark McGuire Barry Bonds Ken Griffey Jr. and Cal frickin' Raleigh man Remember like a month ago I asked is he all of a sudden on a Hall of Fame trajectory

[00:37:15] I know it's only one year but you hear him in those names wow yeah because even if even if Cal doesn't do this every year where he doesn't hit 60 home runs if he starts hitting 37 to 40 a year which by the way that's not that far off from what he was already doing when he was hitting about 30 a year ah man I mean you're talking when you rank among catchers in some ridiculous territory and the bar for catchers to make the Hall of Fame

[00:37:45] from a war perspective is significantly lower because catchers don't play as much and the wear and tear gets to them right so if you can maintain the offense and do that I mean like you said you could think of it even from a Bonds perspective the only time Barry Bonds ever hit over 60 home runs was the year he went for 73 the rest of them he was in the mid 40s Hank Aaron as an all in terms of like all time home run leaderboards I'm stretching a little bit here but Hank never hit 50

[00:38:14] in a season like you just need to be consistent right yeah yeah alright you wrap up all your thoughts yes okay here's the last thought and the negative connotation has nothing to do with Cal it is much more broad in general if they fucking miss the playoffs and waste this season of his I am gonna throw a full on tantrum on this podcast I'm serious this is ridiculous what he's doing

[00:38:44] if they go out and and waste the 2023 season where they went 21 and 6 in August and then blew it waste the 2024 season with an all time rotation and missed out and waste the 2025 season with arguably the greatest year ever by a catcher and miss the playoffs in a 12 team expanded field huh I am gonna throw a ungodly fucking tantrum on this podcast the day the season ends

[00:39:15] dude and there's only one franchise that could achieve that because you were talking if you want to get into more specifics of what the things you just listed off you listed off the best stretch the franchise had ever had and they wasted one of the top 15 seasons the franchise had ever had in Julio Rodriguez's 2023 season you listed off the greatest rotation the Mariners have ever had and probably one of the 15 best seasons by a rotation 10 best seasons by a rotation of all time

[00:39:45] and then you will miss if you do miss the best season a catcher has ever had in Major League Baseball history and you missed the playoffs in all three and then you can pile on wasting a decade of Felix wasting basically all of each hero's prime I'm putting up with this anymore stop wasting elite seasons or the best fact of all time that the Mariners at the same time had arguably the best starting pitcher shortstop center fielder and DH of all time on the same roster and only won

[00:40:16] one division title with the four of them two no one I'm not counting Aaron 95 one yep well Joker mask is coming on Joker mask is coming on well again they didn't have many holes to fill in the offseason TJ they didn't need anything they knew Cal was going to do this he just had the greatest catching season of all time well they had one hole to fill and they filled it perfectly apparently actually that's a pretty good transition

[00:40:47] Donovan Solano Lyle let's give it up Jerry was right they still need multiple impact bats at this deadline or this winner Kyle Tucker but let's give Donovan Solano his flowers because this dude's been on a tear in the last four days he has raised his WRC plus from 49 to 93 he's back in the positive in terms of wins above replacement he hit two home runs here on Sunday yes Donovan Solano the guy on

[00:41:17] I on this podcast sat here and said would not hit a home run before Gregory Santos struck a batter out hit two home runs here on Sunday and since the middle of like the middle of May he has been the sixth best hitter in baseball if you minimize the plate appearances not qualified but if if if you go to Donovan Solano's plate appearances since what's the date here

[00:41:46] May 18th May 18th since May 18th minimum 40 plate appearances Donovan Solano is on a list with Cal Raleigh Aaron Judge Ketel Marte and Ronald Acuna Jr. just like we thought I think that needs to be an Instagram post for tomorrow you you grab that screenshot and put it out on Instagram okay and then we're gonna should I go respond that picture back to all the comments on our Friday post when Luke Raley got activated man do the Mariners have to feel right

[00:42:16] about that Friday transaction except it was never gonna be Solano for all these crazy people in our comments it wasn't but surely the fan perspective didn't see it that way I know which is how many DMs did we get some of these people are lucky we don't just read DMs we get we could leave it anonymous but like there's a lot of people that were frustrated on Friday that Donovan Solano was not DFA'd a lot of people which is now you can see why that was on top of all the

[00:42:46] other factors that the Mariners decided to keep him but that's crazy because even before this weekend he was hitting really well I don't get I don't I part of me almost wants to expose some of these DMs I'm not going to but yeah we got a lot of comments and a lot of DMs saying why isn't Solano DFA'd guys it was gonna be one of two people it was gonna be Canzone going back to the minors or it was gonna be Rowdy to Les getting DFA'd you know what considering Dom Canzone had a really good weekend I think they also hit two homers on Sunday

[00:43:16] yeah I think they made the right call so listen to these listen to the Solano numbers so you mentioned the May 18th date I'm gonna give everybody the numbers from basically the first two months and then since because from opening day till May the 17th so just shy of two months here's what Donovan Solano was doing he was hitting 131 he had a 304 OPS that is unfathomable that his OPS was barely over 300 for context he slugged 148 in that time

[00:43:46] and at that point he was on pace to be the worst mariner with how many plate appearances it was like 30 right it sounds right it was gonna be close it was gonna be like 30 plate appearances worst mariner start to a season ever it was that his WRC plus at that point was negative 60 yeah not 16 60 no no at this point it was 16 there was a point where it was negative 60 yeah on on May 17th it was at negative 16

[00:44:16] by the way he was also walking 3% of the time at that point and striking out over 28% of the time that is I mean I don't even know how you script a first six seven weeks of the year that bad but there is a but from May 18th and on Donovan Solano is hitting 410 his OPS is 1004 yet look at TJ's reaction if you're watching did you say four four ten and by the way these numbers

[00:44:45] don't even include Sunday where he had three hits with two bombs because fan graphs hasn't updated yet Donovan Solano from May 18th and on is hitting over 400 again it was 410 entering Sunday it's going to be higher on Monday 1004 OPS 196 WRC plus like TJ mentioned 7% walk rate it's gone up 16% strikeout rate that is very low and again that does not include Sunday's game where he had three hits with two homers

[00:45:18] Maris got to feel pretty good about this right now I would say he I enjoyed Rowdy Tellez's production it did from a roster crunch make sense why he was the odd man out here but also Donovan Solano just accumulated as much value in just this Cubs series by whatever you want to however you want to value it by just the amount of times you reach base some of the defensive value he provides or the home runs or war if you just want to simplify

[00:45:48] it he provided more war than Rowdy Tellez did in just this Cubs series as Rowdy at all season yeah that's really good really really good this does not change the fact I will say that the Mariners should go out and acquire a first baseman at the deadline should not change that because you can just put Solano on the bench you can work him in at some other positions too which I know he

[00:46:34] hitter a.k.a. what the position just well I don't know I mean I guess a lot of teams don't in baseball these days the point being the DH has been such a black hole forever with this team that's why we laugh when it's supposed to be an offensive position just think of how different would this Solano

[00:47:04] most people would say that was because of salary and it probably was they don't want to admit they're wrong that quickly but it would not have been the craziest thing in the world you see someone with a 330 OPS through about 30 plate appearance and it's

[00:47:34] seriously paying dividends right now if you want the absolute most basic of numbers for anybody that maybe is an old school fan and doesn't love all the advanced stats or you just want this for some context we usually rarely ever talk batting average on here for good reason it's a dumb stat a lot of the time but I'm just going to give everybody the context here Donovan Solano is just shy of hitting 260 right now for the year who thought you were going to say that not me definitely

[00:48:04] not me I have one last thing to look I'm not it's not like I was in the minority thinking that but I will admit I was wrong and now he is going to

[00:48:45] be in can zone who's been hitting is out in the outfield yeah I think the book still I think the jury is still

[00:49:28] he just still hasn't again he hasn't seen or not necessarily hasn't seen most of the hits and damage he's had so far since being recalled is on fastballs he's never really hit a lot off speed or breaking balls so I am curious to it up a little bit more

[00:49:58] in June you have JP like you know pieces start to come together a little bit more I'm not saying by any means this offense is anywhere near complete it's not you need I

[00:50:27] it looked a little better this weekend let's see how it looks as the weeks go on again I want to see like two weeks of sound offensive baseball before I

[00:50:57] in the next couple of weeks it would be the three weeks leading up to the all star break give them a shot so it's a tough road trip going into the break but it's not like you're in bad hitters environments and the weather's warm and you'd hope at

[00:51:27] Boobich who's been really good they I don't know where they rank in the league but they have some good starters the got

[00:51:57] because he's been really good this year see the Royals are doing all this dude the Royals have been a fountain

[00:52:27] I think it's too far out to know if they're going to miss Paul Skeens or not come two weeks from now it's probably too early but there's always the chance you face him and then you go out on the road against the Yankees and the Tigers to end the first half the Pirates yeah I mean the Pirates have some good arms but anyway they just can't score again to finish what

[00:53:12] can't all be Cal he can certainly help it's good to see some other guys pick it up and all that being said go add serious bats at the deadline let's wrap it up loud and let's get to our number nine MLB draft spotlight and today we are going to highlight with our number nine Kyson Witherspoon a right handed starter out of Oklahoma I like this dude he very much feels like a guy that fits the Mariners blueprint of a pitching lab guy

[00:53:42] you talk about a lanky fairly tall right hander like good college program that doesn't necessarily always matter because you can find guys like Brian Wu out of Cal Poly but and I'm not saying Cal Poly is a fastball has really good rise on it very much out of the Brian Wu

[00:54:12] mold and has a total of five pitches now he's got two that are plus in terms of that fastball and then you look at that slider those are the two big pitches of right hand there is a lot to like about this dude if you watch some of his highlights

[00:54:42] it's not quite Brian Wu because he looks like he almost short arms the ball a little bit by the way his delivery goes but it is but like you said it's not because he's like Brian Wu still has the long arm

[00:55:12] action he just brings it down really low when he throws it Kyson Witherspoon is clutching his arm close to his ear before he short arms and throws the ball but it doesn't take away from any of his velocity at his best he sits in the upper 90s with his fastball he's got a ton of right he's got a little bit of cut to it too when he throws it more so as a cutter I

[00:55:55] the top 10 I think he's clearly of those top three college starters in this draft with Kate Anderson Jamie Arnold and then Kyson Witherspoon I think is right there in that three spot there are

[00:56:25] how he'll fare once he gets into these organizations then a Jamie Arnold mold who's a little bit more unique a little more Chris sale unique profile like that we'll talk about when we talk about Jamie but people I think feel a little bit safer about how they view Kyson Witherspoon and his ability to translate to the pro level think about this with Liam Doyle we highlighted how he is going to ride into the draft on one elite tool and really one elite pitch that's his

[00:56:55] fastball Kyson Witherspoon has two plus pitches you can even argue plus plus pitches and there's actually people that still are ranking Liam Doyle to go even higher than Kyson Witherspoon if you're going to ask the two of us I think Witherspoon jumps out a little bit more just in terms of again the athlete he is the five pitch mix that he possesses and I'm not saying he's going to keep all five of those pitches but

[00:57:38] I'm not saying they never draft a lefty there's a certain guy out of LSU who I think we're going to preview very late in our draft profiles for good reason but there's a certain again I'm not saying the Mariners would never take a lefty if the situation calls for it but they seem to really like right handed starters with some unique traits and Kyson Witherspoon has that man and I don't even think he's projected to go at three so if the Mariners plan to get creative in the draft and want to go a little

[00:58:08] bit over slot and sign away a high school kid later on with some of those future picks whether it be late in that or you think yourself with a strategy hey we want to take a college arm at three like they decide on that we're taking a college arm at three either we're going over with Kate at three because Kate's

[00:58:39] Kate's going to get number one money I think wow way to spoil our later draft profiles saying Kate Anderson is going to be on here wow no way did he throw 130 pitch complete game shutout in the college world series finals yeah he did but then after that they could say okay but we still want a college arm at this point so we will sign instead of signing over at three we'll sign under at three and then use that money on pick 35 it's going

[00:59:55] to Oklahoma just by the numbers had a 3 7 1 ERA his first year went to the Cape League for two starts gave up one run over nine innings and went back to Oklahoma put up a 2 9 5 ERA going into his draft year I

[01:00:25] their blueprint circle kites and witherspoon exciting we're getting into the really fun ones oh yeah we are and like I said I like this dude so just just circle that name we're not saying don't pay attention to the other names we've talked about just watch witherspoon that's what I'd say so getting fun again drafts getting close we're now going to get into our top eight come Wednesday so we're counting them down this been fun we hope we're educating people and we hope coming into the draft you guys have more knowledge on these guys and

[01:00:55] you just like us just make sure you guys look at our live schedule because we are less than a week away from our next live

[01:01:25] show that is Saturday June 28 12pm it's at Occidental Hall or you could call it the Hall on Occidental it's on Occidental Avenue right by the ballpark north end of Lumen Field it's awesome it just opened we can't wait for you guys to see it we can't wait to we we can't wait to see you guys we can't your questions we do

[01:01:55] trivia we have giveaways we're going to watch the game starting at 1pm it's going live show and she tagged us on Instagram here on Sunday because they were at Wrigley Field to see the Mariners series finale and to see the win they were wearing their Marine Layer Pod merch all the way out in Chicago and they tagged us in it so shout out to them that was so

[01:02:25] cool so yeah guys go get your merch give you something to stand out to wear out at the ballpark it's and if you want to find us all across social media you can out at Marine Layer Pod that's TJ I'm Lyle as always we thank you

[01:04:24] to