Episode 292: Did An Etsy Witch Just Save The Mariners Season?

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number two ninety two of the Marine Layer Podcast. The Mariners managed to salvage the end of a disappointing road trip. We'll give our takeaways as the Mariners return home this week. 00:00:10 Speaker 2: A reminder to you guys, if you want to keep on top of everything we're doing, you can just go right over to our website. It's got everything over there. That's marine layerpod dot com easylink. There's a bunch of stuff, including merch which we love to see people buying and wearing and being a part of. We love seeing people sign up for our Patreon, which you can do over there, live show schedules over there. So again, all of that is right over at our website, marine layerpod dot com, and then you can check us out across social media at marine layer Pod. 00:00:37 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling, and we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording here on Sunday evenings, September seventh. And I think it's safe to say, Lyle, there's a very good chance that an Etsy wi Witch just saved the Mariner season. 00:01:12 Speaker 3: I don't even know how I'm supposed to respond to that. 00:01:14 Speaker 1: Until this week guess TJ. The Etsy witch did save the Mariners season. 00:01:18 Speaker 3: Dude. Until this weekend, I didn't even know what an Etsy witch was. 00:01:22 Speaker 1: I didn't think I thought Etsy was a site where you bought furniture or cute design things. I didn't think there were actual witches like spell by Luna here, who for the grand price of sixteen dollars, Lyle, you can go on there and get. 00:01:42 Speaker 3: Her to uncurse the Mariners. Wow, that's it. It's like for the price of one New York City drink exactly. 00:01:52 Speaker 1: If anybody missed this just weird story. Maybe it's a coincidence, Lytle, maybe just worked. There's this user on on Twitter, Absolute Unit, who went onto Etsy and was trying to find a way to turn around the vibes of the Mariners. So Absolute Unit goes on there and finds this person called spell by Luna that offers customs spells and puts in a personalized wish saying, I wish that the Seattle Mariners can get their act together and start winning baseball games again and hopefully make their way to the World Series and win. I know this seems like a middle much, a little much, but I'm desperate laugh my ass off quantity of spells one purchased, to which Luna then responds, Hello, this person's name completed my spell with the best materials for you. It was a ritual process full of beautiful energies. Dear, everything is fine now. All you need to do is stay positive and accept the manifestation of the spell. And if you have any other problems, I'm always here for you. 00:02:56 Speaker 3: And then what. 00:02:57 Speaker 1: Happened, Hyle eighteen innings and twenty d eight runs. 00:03:02 Speaker 3: Bless Luna, are you done with the g rated version? 00:03:06 Speaker 2: Because what was actually tweeted out was I just got an Etsy witch to try and unfuck the Mariners. 00:03:17 Speaker 1: And then the wish comes through at eleven four four am on Saturday, and from that point on the Mariners hit ten combined home runs and clabber the Braves and the vibes shift like that. There's no evidence to suggest otherwise. Lyle, do you think it didn't work? 00:03:35 Speaker 2: Do you think the Etsy Witch is also responsible for Spencer Stryder magically getting scratched for Sunday's game? 00:03:41 Speaker 1: Hmm, maybe she was. I mean there was some voodo magic on that suddenly caused the Braves after having him schedule to start on Sunday all week to decide, you know, this would be a good time to load manage him, because that is why it wasn't hurt. It's because he was on the il this season. He's coming back from Tommy John and they're like, yeah, maybe we'll give him the day off just by coincidence. It's like, well, you knew you were playing at nine am or nine am Pacific twelve o'clock Eastern. 00:04:14 Speaker 3: You knew you were playing the Mariners, and. 00:04:16 Speaker 1: They still waited until I guess nine am their time to just scratch him. 00:04:22 Speaker 3: Hmm, it's a coincidence, question Mark. 00:04:25 Speaker 1: I don't know how is he going to rebound in his next start? Is he going to be hung over from the spell? 00:04:30 Speaker 3: I feel like that's the type of spell that only lasts for one outing. 00:04:35 Speaker 2: Actually, but he didn't even pitch. Now, he'll be fine, he'll be on ten days Arrest Strider. 00:04:39 Speaker 3: He'll be good. 00:04:41 Speaker 1: But if it lasts on the Mariners the rest of the season, maybe it would last on Strider too, because I don't think the intention was the Braves for to get to get any of that spell. It was only supposed to be on the Mariners. But if so much of the spell came to the Mariners and the vibe needed to be that they needed to face someone else besides Spencer's Stride on Sunday, and he did in fact get part of the spell that's supposed to benefit the Mariners, then maybe it is going to last the rest of the season. Maybe he's gonna need an offseason to shake this off. 00:05:12 Speaker 2: Well, he doesn't have a great era to begin with, to be fair Spencer Strider, so you can. 00:05:17 Speaker 1: Just take the rest of the season off. 00:05:20 Speaker 2: I mean, they've only got a few weeks left. Strider's got what four starts left in the year five. The Braves aren't going to make the playoffs, so sure, why not shut him down? Who would have thought? 00:05:30 Speaker 1: Who would have thought that the turning point of the season all you needed to do was go on Etsy and spend sixteen dollars. 00:05:35 Speaker 3: Well you knew that's all it took. Let's see if this lasts or if it's just a flash in the pan. 00:05:40 Speaker 1: I have I'm pretty confident it'll last this homestand as we've talked about, they don't have problems winning at home. Now when they go on the road to Kansas City and Houston. If it's the I promise you this. I promise you. If it's the second inning of that Tuesday game or the money whatever, the first game is against Kansas City and it's six nothing Royals in the bottom of the second inning, then I will say the wish, the curse, the blessing wore off. But they win the series against the Royals. I'm saying it's totally on. 00:06:15 Speaker 2: I think it needs to be still magnified and enforced here at home. 00:06:20 Speaker 3: Dude. 00:06:21 Speaker 2: They need to actually get into gear in the final few weeks of the year to make this thing happen and get into the playoffs. By the way, the Marriers need to go thirteen and six the rest of the way to win eighty eight games, to get just over just over that magical winning percentage that certain people in the organization like to talk very publicly about. Well, to get to that mark, you have got to go thirteen and six the rest of the way, which is a lot. I know they've wanted home a lot this year, but you still got to go out and win the games. 00:06:56 Speaker 1: So what do they need to do to go thirteen and six? Assume since the Rockies are on the schedule, they sweep the Rockies. Let's just assume it. We're paranoid. They might lose the games of the Rockies. But let's say they handle business against a bad team take care of the Rockies. That requires them to go ten and six to win a eight games. Okay, that's essentially just winning every series. 00:07:21 Speaker 2: But one of those series involves the Dodgers, who are gonna be fighting for first place in the NL West probably until the tail end of the season, so they're gonna come into that weekend motivated. 00:07:30 Speaker 3: So that's important. 00:07:30 Speaker 1: If you're playing the Dodgers on the road, I would say the Mariners get swept, but they're not playing the Dodgers on the road. 00:07:35 Speaker 3: I'm not. I still think they may lose two of three in that series. 00:07:40 Speaker 1: There's a chance, but I think there's just as solidly a chance they win two of three. 00:07:44 Speaker 3: All Right, Let's say they lose two of three and then leaves you needing to go nine, nine and four. 00:07:53 Speaker 1: Yeah, so you you know, be a big help if you handle business against the Cardinals and Angels, meaning you win, you go five and two in this. 00:08:02 Speaker 2: Week, Okay, but then that leaves you two losses on that road trip, So you gotta win both. 00:08:06 Speaker 1: Series, great, just like they will need to if they want to solidify their playoffs spot. No one said this was gonna be easy, No, So you can get to eighty eight wins and feel like confidently, like that's enough. If they go a week from now and they go on the road to Kansas City and Houston and they win both those series, then they will almost certainly be in the playoffs. Yeah, that's the six games now you got to focus on. I'm confident they're gonna win at home. They've not had issues winning at home this season. 00:08:36 Speaker 3: There's been little. 00:08:37 Speaker 1: Series lulls, but overall they pitched better at home, and the offense, well, I guess on a season total has technically been worse at home. It's not by some astronomical amount, and they clearly seem like they like playing at home a lot more based on their season results and based on what we watched on this road trip, that is evidently clear. See, I'm totally fine with them playing bad teams at home for the next three home series. That's fine. Cardinals stink, Angels, stink, Rockies, worst record in baseball. Pretty confident in. 00:09:10 Speaker 3: Those you should win you still gotta go out and do it. 00:09:15 Speaker 2: The Mariners in this series are gonna face Miles Michaelis whose ERA is almost five, and that's in Monday's game with Brian Wu would be that would be a game you would assume you'd win. Then you get Matthew libertoor who's been fine, not amazing, but fine, the former first rounder of era is about four to one, and then in the finale you'll get Michael McGreevy, another first rounder, but his ERA is sitting around four to seven also. So yes, you should win these games. You should win two of three from Saint Louis. 00:09:46 Speaker 1: Do you feel like, in a in a baseball sense, let's let's throw our Etsy Witch friend aside here for a second and look at like the Brave series, I'm assumed they didn't do enough to actually convince you vibes have shifted that much on the road. What was your first clue? I think it was the go, go ahead, go ahead. I think it was the reaction you did after the Rays series. 00:10:13 Speaker 2: Oh, the one where I was very, ever so calm and sparked a bunch of positivity and passion and relief into the fan base. 00:10:20 Speaker 3: That one that one on Thursday. 00:10:23 Speaker 1: Where it was like cool level played on the radio. 00:10:27 Speaker 3: Yeah, that one right right? 00:10:29 Speaker 2: I sang everybody a nice lullaby, said, or actually I sang. 00:10:33 Speaker 3: What's her name? Oh? Who sings the song? Is it? Rihanna? Everything's gonna be all right? Who sings that? I forget? 00:10:43 Speaker 1: Uh? 00:10:43 Speaker 3: Maybe Leanna Lewis. 00:10:45 Speaker 1: I can't remember asking the wrong person. 00:10:48 Speaker 3: I'm gonna look it up while we're trying to do this podcast. 00:10:50 Speaker 2: But somebody, somebody who just heard that is gonna know what I'm talking about. 00:10:54 Speaker 3: Anyway. 00:10:55 Speaker 2: No, I did not do that, now sarcasm aside. I screamed at the top of my lungs in that action on Thursday, Absolutely just just screaming to the heavens to have somebody hear our cry to turn this thing around. Maybe the Etsy Words which heard me actually just screaming and just ranning and just losing my mind, and she felt the obligation to try to help the mariners. But anyway, Uh, yeah, No, they did not do enough this weekend to convince me that everything's gonna be fine, because you faced a look, yeah, the braves are the brains are not good. Everybody in that lineup's totally underperformed. Waldrip's been good in his first few outings, but he's also still very very inexperienced and hasn't thrown a ton of innings. And then you face the nobody on Sunday. So no, you gotta do a lot more than win one series on the road. I'm glad they finally won a series on the road. Somehow we got to the twelve minute mark of this podcast or whatever it is and didn't say that they finally won a road series in the second half. It's legitimately a miracle, like like that's what the Eetsy which granted this weekend they heard everyone's cries and sent down a gift from the from the nether world of. 00:12:07 Speaker 3: A road series win. 00:12:09 Speaker 2: I was starting to think they legitimately weren't gonna win one in the entire second half, but they did. 00:12:13 Speaker 1: After Friday, especially which I would say the one good player the Braves throughout them at them this weekend carved in Chrissale. 00:12:22 Speaker 3: Yes. 00:12:23 Speaker 2: So oh, there's the other thing that didn't inspire all world confidence that everything's fixed. What we watched on Friday didn't do anything, And good lord dude, what we watched with that hairy Ford chain line of events made me want to like heave into the largest possible trash can with every like with as much vomit as I could possibly just throw up. It was like, like, I don't know what we watched on Friday. I'm still sitting here on Sunday baffled by what on earth unfolded. So, yes, between all those things, we need to see more. I'm glad they went two A three, but we need to see more. 00:13:07 Speaker 1: It's also not a total coincidence that when the offense actually scores a substantial amount of runs they win games, which is like, no shit, if you're gonna score twenty eight runs in two games, you're probably gonna win both of them. Yeah, But it's like, it's not some mystery to say that the offense was good the first seven games of the road trip, because it was not like that Friday game the offense was awful. They had opportunities even before Harry Ford got in the game and started hitting to do serious damage in that game, and then they didn't do it. That's why I thought if Julio on Saturday did not have that swing he had, I was like, they're gonna get swept mm hm. Julio steps to the plate top of the seventh inning on Saturday two to two game and he hits the home run out into the fountains and center, a second home run of the game. If he did not do that, I was not confident they were winning a game in the series, and they were gonna finish to finish of the road trip losing six in a row, and they were gonna get swept again. But they did not do that because Hulu actually came through and then everyone else came through. 00:14:09 Speaker 3: We can have Yeah, we talked. 00:14:11 Speaker 1: We talked a lot of time about the pitching, but like the offense for the first seven games of this road trip certainly deserves their share of the blame. 00:14:20 Speaker 2: Yeah, And we can get to Julio here in a bit, because he really did go off in that brave series and won them some games. And we can do a Julio segment here in a minute. But two things. Number One, I did look up the song. It's Alicia Keys. 00:14:31 Speaker 3: I was, I was. I knew like I know the song. 00:14:34 Speaker 2: I thought I was gonna get the artist right, but I got it wrong. It's Alicia Keys and the song is called No One. That's what I was getting to toward. But that's what she said. 00:14:40 Speaker 1: The research. 00:14:41 Speaker 2: Yeah, I did my research and one of the one of the lines, and there's yeah, everything's gonna be all right. 00:14:47 Speaker 3: Anyway, we can get to Julio in a minute. 00:14:51 Speaker 2: We got to spend a second on this Harry Forward thing, because I know we tweeted about it, and maybe people saw us tweet about it. 00:14:58 Speaker 3: But what like. 00:15:04 Speaker 2: I'm trying to even find the right words while also keeping my composure. Let's let's just you know what, I'm just gonna I'm just gonna read the tweet we put out. That's the easiest thing to do, because that really all sums it up for those who may be unaware. Most of you do know. Harry Ford got his first major league at bat on Friday. It was a tie game. Late in the game. There were two runners on with two outs, and Harry Ford unfortunately struck out on three pitches and didn't didn't look all that pretty doing it. So that was that part of it, and just the fact that he didn't drive in any runs. But I'd say it goes further than that, because Number One, in his first ever big league at bat, they put him in an insanely, insanely high leverage spot to ever get his big league debut. He didn't get a start. He didn't come off the bench late like we asked them to do in the Raise series. We talked about that on Friday's podcast. 00:16:00 Speaker 3: You can get any of that. No, it comes in a tie. 00:16:03 Speaker 2: Game, in a game you really really needed to win late with runners on and two out. 00:16:06 Speaker 3: So that's number one. 00:16:08 Speaker 2: Number two for those also unaware, Harry Ford has reversed splitz this year. If you look at Harry Ford's numbers in the minor leagues, he has hit right handers much better than he's hit left handers. And if you want the exact numbers on that, as I pull up his splits here, Harry Ford against right handed pitching this season has hit two ninety five with an ops of nine oh eight. Really good. He has really crushed righties this year two ninety five average nine oh eight ops. Against left eas He's hit two forty eight with a seven to fifty one OPS. 00:16:41 Speaker 3: It's not awful, but. 00:16:42 Speaker 2: Given that it was Triple A pitching and there's a seismic gap. Yeah, he's much better against righty's this year. They put Harry Ford into that game not only in a very tough situation and a high leverage one, but against the dominant left handed reliever in Dylan Lee, who's got really big stuff, so wrong side of the plate, tough arm, tough leverage spot. And then if that's not enough, the a bat in its own right because Josh Naylor was banged up on Friday and couldn't play. And the fact that you pinch hit Harry Ford for Luke Raley, which you knew that you knew what you were doing by putting him in that game. By pinch hitting Harry Ford, you took Luke Raley out of the game. And therefore we're gonna need somebody else to play first base. It's not gonna be Josh Naylor because Naylor's banged up and needed the day off. That results in Gino going to play first base. 00:17:33 Speaker 3: Yeah, Gino. 00:17:35 Speaker 2: And what happens in the classic baseball of ways first play routine grounder or like routine play missed it? 00:17:45 Speaker 3: I I like, like, what like? 00:17:48 Speaker 2: What is what is the thought process behind this? I mean, we shockingly didn't get an answer, but what was the thought process possibly behind that? 00:17:58 Speaker 3: You don't have an answer, do you I don't know this is the exact scenario. 00:18:03 Speaker 1: I did not want to put harry Ford in. Where I said, if you are like looking for the way to utilize your pinch hitters the best I don't think a guy making his first ever career at bats in the highest leverage spots possible was the best idea. It would have if they would have, if they would have let him play in some of these Rays games. Maybe you excuse it a little bit more, but like we have the split, like the splits, is there the like the other opt like the option was to either leave Luke Rayley in the game or to put Harry Ford in and Luke Rayley against lefties this year, it's not good. 00:18:39 Speaker 3: It's been really bad. 00:18:40 Speaker 2: But you know what, Luke Rayley is an established Major leaguer who has taken at bats against left handed pitching. Harry Ford not only has not seen a healthy dosage of big league at bats, he hadn't seen any big league at bats. 00:18:51 Speaker 3: Before that at bat. 00:18:52 Speaker 1: Yeah, it has been really bad for Railey against lefties this year. Remember when they said they at the beginning of the year they wanted to give him some opportunities against lefties. Well, He's had twenty three at bats against lefties this year as a one ninety seven OPS, which is still above Dylan Moore's. But but I think in this scenario, this scenario right here, if you're choosing between Luke Rayley and Harry Ford, it's a lose lose of what you're choosing. But so yeah, so you would have to you're rolling the dice whatever you do, So in that scenario, you'd rather just keep someone who could play first base in the game instead of putting Harry Ford in. Again, I'm just gonna go back to what I said the previous week. Harry Ford I think should be up to here to catch, not to pinch hit, because that's not really his role because he's he just hasn't seen big league, big league arms, so I don't know how we expect him to be quite as successful. So he strikes out and the unfortunately the bullpen, as they did a lot of times on this trip, came in and they wiltered late in the game. 00:19:54 Speaker 3: Mm hmm. 00:19:55 Speaker 1: So it was just a it was a clusterfuck on Friday that led to them losing the game. A multitude of missed opportunities with runners on base bullpen blowing the game, wasted a really good start from Logan Gilbert. By the way, outside of that raise series, the starting rotation pitch pretty well this road trip, So you throw those three games out. The other six games the Mariners pitched started, it's pretty solid, and Logan gave him an opportunity there on Friday, which they did not take advantage advantage of. Thankfully, though these opportunities they missed out on on Friday, they made up four on Saturday and Sunday they led to the winning the series. 00:20:37 Speaker 3: And we're about to get to that. 00:20:38 Speaker 2: I'm just saying, Luke Rayley in his career, has taken one hundred and eighty two career played appearances against left handed pitching and has twenty nine career hits. He's not good against lefties. He's got a five to twenty two career ops against lefties. But let me say it again, he has taken one hundred and eighty two career played appearances against lefties, has twenty nine hits, and plays first base. Harry Ford has taken zero career played it appearances, doesn't play first base, and hits right. 00:21:03 Speaker 1: He's better than left these you were gonna lose no matter what. So in that scenario, would have left Terry Ford on the bench. 00:21:08 Speaker 3: Yes, yes, that was because I'm sorry. 00:21:11 Speaker 2: That was Like I'll just say that that was insanity what we watched on Friday. 00:21:15 Speaker 1: The best way you can theorize that, the best way you can explain that Harry Ford's useful if you're on this big league rosters. The availability he provides provides the rest of the roster by being able to catch and being on the bench. That doesn't include him coming off the bench to pinch hit. Where he's not coming in to catch, you essentially burned him. So that is what it is. But in these scenarios where they dude could pitch it or put him in a catcher, they don't until today when they were up eighteen to two. 00:21:45 Speaker 2: And then that leads to things like Jorge Polongo getting reps at first base on Saturday before the game because they had nobody to throw out at first base, so it led the geno and he made error. 00:21:53 Speaker 1: I would have felt more comfortable if they put Ben Williamson in a pinch hitting opportunity than Harry because he's gotten big league appearance and he's crushing the ball into. 00:22:01 Speaker 3: Coma and you know he can play defense late again. 00:22:06 Speaker 1: I want Harry starting. I want him starting a game. 00:22:08 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm saying Benden can play defense late. 00:22:10 Speaker 1: Perfect then he would. It would have fit a little at least a little bit better. It still was due to the The nailor injury really kind of fucks it up for everybody. You were going to be at a disadvantage no matter what you chose. But doesn't make the process any better. No, thank goodness for Saturday and Sunday, because man, everyone came alive. The must We didn't even mention this yet, the mustaches everyone was rocking. Maybe that turn helped turn it around too. 00:22:38 Speaker 3: Yeah, are they going to keep these at home? 00:22:40 Speaker 1: I think so. When we were at our watch party at the Hall on Saturday, shout out to everyone who came out. Really fun time, had some drinks, watched a great game. Shout out to Corona for helping us put that on. For everyone getting the giveaways, that was a super fun time. Hoping to do more of those in the future. But for all of you who were there or all of you who are watching. In the game, I watched cal come up to the plate in the first inning, I'm like, something seems different. And first you notice, oh, he's wearing the high socks today. Cal doesn't normally do that. Okay, changing it up, gibing it up a little bit. And then they zooming on his face and he's got just got this caterpillar sitting on his lip. 00:23:20 Speaker 3: And I'm like, okay, you know what they were doing today? 00:23:24 Speaker 1: They lost in such frustrating fashion last night they said, fuck it, we're doing everything possible to turn this, turn the superstitions around and bring the winning vibes back. Where we had high socks, we had mustaches. Maybe they were tossing salt too in the dugout a whole bunch of things, and it ended up leading to some good things. 00:23:47 Speaker 3: I'm glad it did. They needed it. I'll tell you what, Julio. 00:23:52 Speaker 2: I got a text from a couple of different friends when Julio hit that homer on Saturday, the first one, and it said he's our only hope. That's what they said, because through all the constant tough play on the road has been Julio staying red hot, and he essentially won them that game Saturday. Now they piled it on late and they had a bunch of other guys end up contributing, but the two homers from Julio and the great catchout in the field earlier in the game. 00:24:21 Speaker 3: Oh, that was his game. 00:24:22 Speaker 2: That was That was a Julio Rodriguez game, and that win had his name stamped. 00:24:27 Speaker 3: All over it. That was Julio. 00:24:29 Speaker 2: I mean, he'd already been coming alive for a few weeks now, but you remember that. That's that's what Julio can do when he's at his best. 00:24:38 Speaker 1: Since July, he has been the sixth most valuable player in baseball by war. 00:24:45 Speaker 3: That's an MVP candidate, head of Cal. Yeah, ahead of Judge. 00:24:48 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's pretty damn valuable. He has been the Mariners' MVP of the second half. Mm hmm, because Cal those two months has also fallen off offensively quite a bit. Now he's on pace to break mcking Mantles record. Helps. He tacked on a couple of late home runs this weekend, but it has been for the most part since July started the Julio Show, and now we get to this point of the season and you don't know where the Mariners offense would be without him. With these home runs this weekend, Doug, he now joins only two other players to have one hundred and ten homers and one hundred and ten steals through their age twenty four season. Those two players might be two of the most talented and best offensive players we've ever seen. Their names are Mike Trout and Alex Rodriguez. 00:25:35 Speaker 2: I was pretty good. I was gonna read this too. Yeah, shout out our friends at just Baseball for digging that one up. 00:25:41 Speaker 3: Yeah. Man, it's crazy. 00:25:43 Speaker 2: This is why the Julio discourse is always so wild, because you look in the first half of the season and you dig through these things where he's struggling and he's not hitting, and there was a point in early July whereas WRC plus was sitting well under one hundred, and you say, how do you talk about this? Like, who really is he as a player? We have this conversation every year now. Then we fast forward to September and numbers like that are dug up, where you say, oh, in Julio's first four years, here's who he's in comparison with Trout a Rod And you're like, oh, this is a guy who's on pace for the Hall of Fame, which is crazy to say because again, like by the looks of his own fan base. A lot of the time you would think he'd be labeled to bust, and then you see numbers like this and you say, oh, if Julio keeps doing what he's doing every year, he's on track for Cooperstown, which is crazy because the discourse flows so many different directions throughout different bits and pieces that every season. But then you look at the full scale picks here and you give him some time to heat up every year, and you say, oh, yeah, this is who he is. 00:26:51 Speaker 1: He is one of the base many favors, given the fact that his in season lows are pretty low. Like you said, someone hundred WRC plus, striking out a ton, not looking like he has no idea what he's doing at the plate, hits a lot on hits the ball, a lot on the ground, hits the ball, a lot on the ground is up there in big scenarios and is either chasing or grounding into double plays or just just. 00:27:14 Speaker 3: Not looking very good. 00:27:16 Speaker 1: But then on the other side, as we as we talked about during this time, it's like, there is gonna be a point this season where Julio's gonna turn it around and he's gonna look incredibly hot and he's gonna look just like he should. And now we were sitting right in the midst of that. In August he had a one sixty six WRC plus here in September it's up to one ninety four. And then you see the swings he puts on balls, like the one he put in Philadelphia where he scooped the ball off the ground and instead of pounding it into the ground, he lost it in does seats for a home run, or the home run he had on Saturday in the seventh an where he takes a pitch middle middle and uses peculio power to smash it into the water fall in center field, knowing, okay, when he's locked in, he's on time, and he's putting swings on base balls just like that. I was trying to I was looking around at some other superstars in terms of they're hot and cold streaks in the given season. When we talk about Julio not doing himself any favors, I think it doesn't do him a favor that his cold months are all at the same time. Usually in a season he will have two to three cold months at a time in a row, which has people pent up frustrated for him. With some other superstars, they'll have just as many cold months or cold in their aspect as Julio does, and at the end of the season their stats still looked really good. But they still have the months like Julio has in April, May and June, for example, Corbyn keils had a really good season, right, you assume great year. In June and July he had two months that are twenty percent worse than any month Julio's had this year. 00:28:57 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's pretty wid. 00:28:58 Speaker 1: I'm back fans want to send him to triple trade them or trade him. I don't think so. Right, We're not a Diamondbacks podcast, But I can't assume people want to trade Corbyn Carroll and Julio's defense clears Corbin's. So were they ready to send Corbyn Carroll down? 00:29:15 Speaker 3: I would hope not. 00:29:17 Speaker 1: Okay, Like that's the point. I do think eventually, maybe eventually no one will get it because people like to live in the moment, and that's fine. I can't blame them. And it's not to say we're not frustrated when Julio has his lows during a season that it's not frustrating. It doesn't hurt the team. But you also see like the Seesaw fact where when Julio's at his coldest, Cow was at his hottest, so it almost overshadowed julio struggles. And then when Julio's at his hottest and Col's at his coldest, it almost overshadows Cow's cold streak as well. And you can get through it as an offense. But now maybe here in September, you can get both of them, and that can help you make the playoffs and help the fact that this he can't pitch as well on the road and you can just score a bunch of runs. 00:30:04 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, one hundred, and if they get those too hot at the same time, that becomes the offense that we saw in the first week post trade deadline, when they're just absolutely beating teams into the ground. And then factor in that Gino's had a good last few weeks, and you factor in that Naylor had a good final two games in this road series. 00:30:24 Speaker 3: Again, if there's anything we've learned. 00:30:25 Speaker 2: About this team, it's really streaky, the offense specifically, So you just have to hope that they're gonna hit a hot streak here over the next couple of weeks where they can really carry this team into the postseason, because when they do, they're hard to stop, especially that they're gonna go against some weaker end pitching against the Cardinals, against the Angels, against the Rockies. 00:30:46 Speaker 3: But they gotta go do it. 00:30:48 Speaker 1: And I think that lines up really with the fact that their offense is mostly walking and hitting home runs, and they hit a bunch of home runs last two days. Otherwise they had not hit quite as many home runs and had not scored as many runs. One of the guys that they want to diversify their offense a little bit and hit more doubles is Julio himself. Julio for his career is not a huge doubles guy, but this season it's got twenty six doubles. Now he is. He's going to probably finish with the second most extra base hits he's had in a season. He in fact might double, he might not double. He'll get close though, to the extra base hit total he had last year. Remember we talked last offseason how puzzled we were that Julio had a grand total of seven or of thirty seven extra base hits last year the whole season. Thirty seven. 00:31:40 Speaker 3: Yeah, and what was it, twenty something of them were homers. 00:31:44 Speaker 1: Twenty homers, seventeen doubles. This year he is at thirty doubles and thirty homers in twenty six doubles. He has a chance to have thirty homers, thirty steels, thirty doubles. 00:31:56 Speaker 3: It's pretty good. 00:31:58 Speaker 1: That would be a pretty good mark, And that would match his twenty twenty three season, which I believe he also did that all thirty of those well, and. 00:32:06 Speaker 2: This twenty twenty three is the only other year he's gone thirty thirty, So yeah, that would check right. 00:32:10 Speaker 1: So this looks like right now if he keeps pace for the next Also, he leads the American League in play appearances right now. I did not realize that that also speaks to another good thing about how healthy he is. This right now is going to track from a volume standpoint, to be his best offensive season since twenty twenty three, And it could if he gets like nuclear hot for these last two weeks, he's got an outside chance of getting close to his twenty twenty two season. And ops, he's got to make up about fifty five points of OPS in three weeks. I don't know if he can quite cover that. But he's at seven ninety two right now. To get to his twenty twenty three mark, he needs to get to eight. Eighteen twenty two mark is eight fifty three. That's how much ground he's got to cover. He's sneaking up on his second best offensive year as a pro right now. And it's total too. It's in the totality of it is great. 00:33:16 Speaker 2: Yeah, and he all of a sudden feels like he could finish if this keeps up top five and MVP voting again possible. You're gonna have Cal and Judge. We can look through who else would be on there? 00:33:28 Speaker 1: But yeah, who else would they put on there? 00:33:31 Speaker 3: I mean schools. 00:33:32 Speaker 2: They think Scoobale is gonna finish pretty high in the MVP voting despite being literature, I think, or at least at one point that was the narrative. I think he'll still probably finished high. WIT's probably gonna finish ahead of him, which makes sense, Bobby Wit. Yeah, man, Like I like, I'm looking at the this is just off war and I'm not saying this will be the only thing that factors in here are your American League war leaders. You got Judge, You've got Cal, you've got Scooball, you got Wit, you've got Corey Seeger, and then you got Julio. 00:34:03 Speaker 3: And if you want to look five, then that's reference. Yeah. 00:34:07 Speaker 1: So if you want to look at fangrafs, fangrafts, has it, Judge, Cal, Bobby Witt, Jay Ram, Mikeil Garcia, Jeremy Pagna, then Julio. 00:34:19 Speaker 2: Top five MVP finishes not crazy at this point, So here's who. 00:34:22 Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna be a top five MVP candidate this year. I don't think MIKEL. Garcia will be No. I don't think Jeremy Payne you will be. Him and Julio are tied right now, but Payna I don't think's plate enough. I think and I think voters would take that into consideration for him. So I don't think he's in the top five right now. I think there's a solid chance that Julio would finish fifth. I do think that like Bobby Witt'll be up there, Judge will be up there, Cal will be up there. I think Jay Ram is a very good chance to be up there given the season he's had. Otherwise, Scooball, yes, Scooble really would be his only competition, So there's a chance Julio, if voters are up and looking at the right things, Julio's five, six or seven. 00:35:07 Speaker 2: And that would be three of his first four seasons. I believe he would finish top seven in MVP voting, because in twenty twenty two he finished seventh, twenty twenty three, he finished fourth. Last year in place, that'd be pretty crazy. That'd be three of us first four years. He's a top seven MVP finisher. 00:35:24 Speaker 1: And perhaps what gets him to his MVP finishes is just being incredibly streaky, and his streaks are hotter than most others. Right, And if you think a player like Aaron Judge isn't streaky, Aaron Judge is streaky. He's a little streaky too. Now his floor is much higher than Julio's floor. Judge's first two months is about a two twenty WORC plus and he was two fifty in April, it was two twenty in May. As high as it gets. But his following months are very good, but they're no not that hot, so like it's just like a it's a matter of where your floor is. But to say that Judge is just totally consistent across the season a guy who him and Cal will be battling for the MVP, or maybe they're both backing into who will win the MVP, given they both not been their best selves here in September or in August as well. But it's not to say that those guys are immune to cold streaks either, like Julio. I just think Julio gets nitpicked a little bit. And we talked a little bit about it why back in June about why people get more frustrated with him as opposed to say Cal going through similar struggles right now, who I you know, haven't heard quite as much discourse around Cal rally in that aspect. 00:36:45 Speaker 3: Yeah, I wonder if it's because, again, Julio starts slow like Cal obviously didn't start slow, and that's a part of it. 00:36:54 Speaker 1: I do think. I do think it because you can look at the slash one and say, you see that slash line is not good, which we said that. 00:36:59 Speaker 2: Sure, Whereas if he had done all this in April and May, it'd be a different conversation. 00:37:04 Speaker 1: Look col by month May or March in April one forty five, May two eighteen, June one eighty nine, then the last two months July and August one, ten, one fifteen, Both those months he's batting under two hundred and striking out over thirty percent of the time. Julio's when how Julio has two months like that. We get people dming us asking to send Julio down to triple A. But since cal started so strong and he was at forty homers at that point, obviously you're not sending him down. But obviously you're not sending Julio down either, not anymore. 00:37:42 Speaker 3: You were never ever gonna send him down? 00:37:44 Speaker 1: Well, I wasn't. I can't promise. I can't promise that like Joe from Snoqualmi wouldn't send him down. Like look at Julio by comparison for for his months ninety seven in April one three, in May one, o one in June one, twenty six, in July one sixty six, in August one, ninety four in September. Still kind of both of them, like it's been. It's a little wavy. 00:38:13 Speaker 3: It's just a different points in time. 00:38:15 Speaker 1: It's at different points in time in the context the context of that hurts him. 00:38:19 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:38:20 Speaker 2: My only other big takeaway from this weekend is that's the second slid road start in a row for Bryce Miller. 00:38:26 Speaker 3: That is encouraging. 00:38:28 Speaker 1: M hm. And they it looks more like Bryce Miller, it does. I think we've we've said it for his starts, he more so looks like Bryce. I want the strikeouts to be higher. And I saw his start in Cleveland and the strike the strikeouts weren't high. I was like, eh, but you only keep up two hits and Bryce, there are points of last season that Bryce would not strike out a ton of batters, but he would be efficient and he'd get through six or seven innings. That is what we've seen with him here on the road. It's not the biggest world beaters that he's played. Cleveland doesn't hit. Atlanta's not hit so much that Ronald Acunya bat seventh, seventh, and I think people were turning down George Kirby for Ronald Acunya. Interesting. Maybe the price has gone down now. Otherwise, I really I'm with you. Outside of that last inning where he gave up a couple of small hits that knocked him out of the game, drove his pitch coun up, I'm with you. I think he looked great. 00:39:33 Speaker 3: Mm hmm. 00:39:34 Speaker 2: Now I think a big test for Bryce will be Howie pitches in Kansas City, because that'll be a real road test. 00:39:41 Speaker 3: How can he do there? 00:39:41 Speaker 2: And by the way, it was Bryce Miller on the mound in Kansas City last year when they gave up that seven nothing to lead. 00:39:49 Speaker 3: Yeah, that wasn't wasn't great. But that will be a big test. 00:39:52 Speaker 2: And I'll tell you what if Bryce throws a good start at home, which he very well ken and I think will, and if and then if he goes back out on the road in Kansas City and pitches, well, that before really solid starts in a row for Bryce Miller, and then I think you get into a conversation of well, does he need to be pitching in the playoffs inside that rotation? Because I wouldn't say it's all locked up right now. I'd say, you know that Wu and Logan are going to I don't. I don't know who the final spot or two spots will be. M I'm like, there's a real conversation. 00:40:24 Speaker 1: Between So Kirby finishes this season depends. 00:40:27 Speaker 3: How Kirby finishes, and it certainly depends on how Luise finishes. 00:40:31 Speaker 1: Well, I'll tell you what, both those guys are gonna get roads. Everyone's gonna get one more road start, at least on this last road trip, So everyone's gonna have that final taste of how have I pitched on the road in that last and big, high pressure almost playoff games. There, everyone's gonna need one more road if they're gonna go ahead and secure that playoff spot, that's next road trip they are going to need good a good road start from every other pitcher. Doesn't matter if they've locked up locked up a playoff rotation spot, but it would certainly help help their case. 00:41:07 Speaker 2: Logan's gonna be the one guy that pitches twice on the road during the Kansas City two weeks. 00:41:13 Speaker 1: Well, it's fine with me. 00:41:15 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, ideally it'd be Wu. But yeah, that's that's fine Logan. If you're picking, if you're going in packing order, Logan would be second. 00:41:23 Speaker 3: So yeah, I will say what. 00:41:26 Speaker 1: I was gonna say. Everyone did have at least one good road start this road trip. Every single all the five pitchers in this rotation had a good road start. 00:41:34 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah they did. 00:41:35 Speaker 1: That's not to say they were all perfect on the road. Kirby was not, Castile was not, Wu was not. But everyone found a way to be good at least once away from home. 00:41:46 Speaker 3: Mm hmm, yeah, I'm with that. I agree. 00:41:49 Speaker 1: I think one last note, like, let's just catch everyone up on where the Mariners currently set right now in the standings. So the Mariners, since this road trip is over, they are currently two and a half games back of Houston, three games up on, three games back of Boston, five games back of the Yankees. They have a game and a half lead on the Rangers. Let me know if these are updated with the scores or not. Two games on the Royals, two and a half on the Guardians, four on the Rays. Yeah, they have the tiebreaker over all four of those teams below them. 00:42:29 Speaker 3: Right, Kansas City could change. 00:42:31 Speaker 1: Kansas City could change. You're right. If they win the series in Kansas City, then they will have it. Don't get swept. That would be crucial to the tiebreaker. 00:42:41 Speaker 2: Right now, they do not have it against Kansas City because they lost two or three at home. 00:42:47 Speaker 1: Looking at how much ground they lost, they only lost half a game of ground on both the Red Sox and the Astros during that road trip. 00:42:58 Speaker 3: That's it, which is kind of crazy. 00:43:01 Speaker 1: It's kind of crazy given that we were off the mic saying the division was toast this week. Really it's not. No, it's not just a matter of whether or not you believe, you believe or not. I mean the teams that made up the most ground, like the Rangers, did you have the tiebreaker over them? You have the tiebreaker, You have the tiebreaker over the Rays. The only reason the Rays made up so much ground on you is because they swept you, right, And I. 00:43:27 Speaker 2: Would say with the Rangers too perspective for people I know, if you look at the standings right now, it says the Mariners have a one and a half game lead on the Rangers. Really it's two and a half because since the Mariners have the tiebreaker, if the Rangers were to get into a point where they were quote unquote tied with the Mariners in terms of record, the Mariners have the advantage because they have the tiebreaker. So the Rangers would have to get a game above the Mariners to get that playoff spot. So really it's a two and a half game lead over the Rangers. 00:43:55 Speaker 1: Two and a half with the Rangers, three and a half with the Guardians, and five games with the Rays. 00:44:01 Speaker 3: Right. 00:44:01 Speaker 2: The only true one right now is Kansas City at two that's the one to keep an eye on. And you're gonna be able to control your destiny with that because you're gonna play on. 00:44:12 Speaker 1: And now, looking at the remaining strength of schedules, the Mariners do have the easiest remaining strength of schedule among all playoff teams in the American Lague to them and then the Yankees. Unfortunate. Now I actually, looking at a little closer, this is all because of the Rockies. 00:44:32 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say, you still gotta play the Royals, you still got to play the Astros, you still got to play the Dodgers. 00:44:37 Speaker 1: Well, I was looking at all these other teams, I'm like, oh, who are they playing now, I'm like, that's a lot of contenders for the Mariners to play. And yeah, I know the Rockies are doing a lot of heavy lifting here in terms of who you're competing with. The Rays have. The Rays have to play the Blue Jays seven more times, and the Royals have to play the Phillies. They have to play the Blue Jays, and they have to play Cleveland, so they might just beat themselves up. 00:44:59 Speaker 2: The Rays don't really feel like they're in it because they're four back of the Mariners. 00:45:02 Speaker 3: Which is really five. It's gonna be tough for them. 00:45:07 Speaker 2: And the fact that they lost three in a row after that Mariner series ended, which took them back out of it a little bit. 00:45:12 Speaker 1: Oh man, here's another benefit. The Rangers have to play the Brewers. Well, that'll help, That will really help. Okay, So as bad as the Mariners were this road trip, as much as they tried to blow their playoff spot, they're still in it and it is still pretty favorable for them to make the playoffs. Like you look at those Fangrafts playoff percentage percentages, that still favor the Mariners to make the playoffs. As bad as the vibes feel it sometimes like just talking through every scenario that other teams have to go through versus what you have to go through and all the tie breakers you own. If you're trying to find a reason to be negative after what you just watched, I get it. But it's still lined up very favorably for the Mariners, so I will. If they do blow it, then they very much deserve the criticism they'll get or the outrage. 00:46:05 Speaker 2: And if you're feeling negative after what you watched, it's all warranted, believe me, because we're in the same boat. In fact, well we're forty we're we're forty six minutes into this podcast. It's fine if you want to know where our levels were at this week. We boycotted basically this entire road. 00:46:25 Speaker 1: Wednesday on. 00:46:27 Speaker 2: Yeah, so once they lost the Wu start, this was my proclamation. I said, if you lose the Brian Wu start on Tuesday, aka the one guy who's actually been good on the road this year, I'm boycotting the rest of the road trip because it's too much on my mental health. It's too much on my sanity, and if they're not gonna win the Brian WU starts, then it feels like an uphill battle to win any start. They lost to Brian WU start on Tuesday, and as a result, we didn't watch the rest of the week. 00:46:54 Speaker 1: So we're watching Wednesday, and then we got so validated from the fact they were down six nothing after two you we're like, perfect, Oh, Kirby throut, somebody, things are going great. 00:47:07 Speaker 3: Uh. 00:47:07 Speaker 2: However, I want people to know this boycott is now over because they're back at home. We will we will be back to watching the games. It's just you know what, guys, there gets to be a breaking point in every persons season. 00:47:19 Speaker 3: Ours was right there. 00:47:20 Speaker 2: We needed a rest, a reset, a mental health break everything. 00:47:25 Speaker 3: I think it's. 00:47:26 Speaker 1: Totally okay to be mad and not want to watch them. Don't feel like you have to. 00:47:29 Speaker 2: Yes, I now now the two of us are going to get back to watching them this week and moving forward. 00:47:36 Speaker 3: But we needed a few days off. We needed some PTO when. 00:47:40 Speaker 1: We when we tweeted we need a mental health break, like we were serious. 00:47:45 Speaker 3: We took it. 00:47:47 Speaker 1: We did, we didn't. 00:47:48 Speaker 3: Recharged, and we'll be at the park. 00:47:50 Speaker 1: As of tonight when this episode comes out. 00:47:52 Speaker 2: Right, So buckle up. September's starting to really kick into gear here. I hope they really kick send a gear in the positive way for the Mariners now that they're back at home. 00:48:02 Speaker 3: I hope. 00:48:03 Speaker 1: So last positive takeaway the Mariners outscored the Seahawks today. 00:48:07 Speaker 3: God, let's not even get onto the Seahawks. That was a miserable watch. Good Lord, looks like the old Pete offense all over again. 00:48:17 Speaker 1: Uh yeah, Well, there's one thing I can confidently say. The Mariners have much more offensive talent than the Seahawks. Do you know they could probably use Julio out wide? They probably could probably use him. 00:48:29 Speaker 3: They might be able to use Randy too. 00:48:31 Speaker 1: Yeah, they need a couple new receivers. 00:48:34 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:48:35 Speaker 2: Anyway, all right, I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. 00:48:39 Speaker 3: You guys know the drill. 00:48:40 Speaker 2: If you want to listen to the full form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure you're hitting download on these episodes and your rate and reviewing leaving five stars really really appreciated. 00:48:51 Speaker 3: It really helps the show if you do. 00:48:53 Speaker 2: If you're on YouTube like comment, please go hit that subscribe button. If you're watching, it's right in front of you. It takes half a second. It keeps you updated on every everything we're posting. 00:49:01 Speaker 3: Go do that on YouTube. 00:49:02 Speaker 2: You can find everything else over on our website marine layerpod dot com, from our merch to our Patreon, it's the whole nine yards over there, and then you can check us out on social social. 00:49:11 Speaker 3: Media at marine Layer Pod. It's t J. I'm Lyle. It's always we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you sir,