Episode 297: Reacting To The Mariners HUGE Series Win In KC + Preparing For The Biggest Series Of The Season In Houston + Mailbag

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number two ninety seven of the Marine Layer Podcast. The Mariners won a huge series in Kansas City. This week, we'll recap it, we'll preview the upcoming series, and Houston will also open up the mailbag and answer your guys's best listener questions. 00:00:16 Speaker 2: You guys reminder, make sure you stand on top of all of our stuff, which is over at our website. That's marine layerpod dot com where you can get your merch sign up for Patreon, check out our live show schedule, and again that's all over at our site. All our episodes are there as well, and you can follow us across social media at marine Layer Pod. 00:00:32 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling, and we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball podcast network, recording here on Thursday evening, September eighteenth, and at seven thirty eight pm. I would like to formally announce, while a huge announcement, the Seattle Mariners have the best World Series odds in Major League Baseball. 00:01:11 Speaker 3: Let's give it up. 00:01:13 Speaker 1: Hang the banner. 00:01:16 Speaker 3: Oh, so they're missing the playoffs? 00:01:19 Speaker 1: You had to be a downer. 00:01:22 Speaker 2: Come on, when you see things like that, how does your mind not go to PTSD and trauma. 00:01:28 Speaker 1: We did say as soon as we saw that, oh, this means they are missing the playoffs. The lead is only three and a half games over the Guardian still despite them being in a tie for first place. So yeah, they're missing the playoffs. The Rockies are coming into T Mobile Park and it's over. 00:01:45 Speaker 2: The Rockies are gonna win two of three in Seattle in the last week of the year. 00:01:50 Speaker 1: The Rockies are gonna eliminate the Mariners on Thursday, and they're gonna do a Savannah Bananas dance around the stadium watching the Mariners pout. 00:02:02 Speaker 3: Don't even put that thought in my head. 00:02:04 Speaker 1: Why don't we talk about something positive and this great series they displayed. 00:02:08 Speaker 2: I was gonna say, don't you put that evil on me, Ricky, Bobby, Yeah, let's talk about the Royals instead and what's currently happening. Yes, in all seriousness, the Mariners having World Series odds like that is really cool because it means that credible people like Fangrafts believe in this team and believe in this roster and what they could do long term, which is so exciting. Part of that is what they just did in Kansas City this week. Which in spite of a tough loss on Tuesday, or I should say on Wednesday, that is still a really successful series. I understand and will be the first people to tell you they should have won that game on Wednesday. 00:02:40 Speaker 3: They had it. 00:02:41 Speaker 1: But good thing we didn't record after that game. 00:02:45 Speaker 3: Yeah, good thing. 00:02:46 Speaker 2: But to still win two of three on the road in a really important series. Massive, Massive from Luis Castillo on Thursday. Absolute nails. Massive from JP Crawford. Massive from our guy Andy Bissel. My god, dude, what a fucking challenge. Holy hell, but all encompassing Mariners needed that series. 00:03:06 Speaker 3: They got it. 00:03:07 Speaker 1: That was huge and ones to say that if you looked at Wednesday's game and you said, Okay, if something totally random doesn't happen, the Mariners win that game and they sweep instead, Like if Matt Brash just does his job, which is why he was in the game in the first place. We got a mailbag question. It's like, did Dan Wilson screw up Wednesday's game by putting Matt Brash in the eighth inning. The answer, my question is that question is no, No, he didn't. Matt Brash when he goes in the eighth inning, is supposed to go in there, He's supposed to lock it down. I don't think I expected this. I don't think you expected this. I don't think Brash or cal Rawley expected that Adam Frasier of all people, was gonna like stick the bat head out and loft a lazy fly all the other way that somehow left the ballpark. You have to imagine his swing of emotions that I think all of us went through. If someone wasn't paying close attentions to Wednesday's game in order, in the span of about seven minutes, we had Julio get picked off after the Mariners took the lead in the top half of the eighth inning as a trail runner to end the inning. And I'm sitting there. I'm sitting I'm like in the middle of a workout. I can't believe. I'm like, I'm pissed that he got picked off. The commercial break happens, they come back, Brash walks the lead off batter, and then Adam Frazier just does boop, goes over the fence, and I'm sitting there, I'm like, if you're watching on YouTube, I just threw my hat on the ground. 00:04:37 Speaker 2: How the hell was that ball out in fourteen parks. That's what Savan says, including Seattle. 00:04:43 Speaker 1: The expected batting average on that was zero point zero six sixty sixty sixty. Yeah, that it should have been impossible. It did feel like one of those games in a past year that the owners might let snowball like that, felt like past games in Kansas City that would turn into gut wrenching losses or gut wrenching multiple losses that could potentially derail the season. And then what did the Mariners do today? They they hung on through some just really gritty performances, offenses able to scratch out a run. They're able to manufacture that run late in the game because of our guy Andy Bissel front of the pod for finding a way to keep don Can Zone on base, and then JP Crawford, who was nails all series, to double him home. And then the Mariners pitched a shutout on the mound, which was great. You know what, in a past year, maybe they would have given up a walk off, three run home run, but they didn't. This time. They managed to find a way. And it's all for the better because now the World Series Favorites banners is going up in the Ballpark once they return home. I promise. 00:05:53 Speaker 2: I'm sure somebody's already made the graphic on Twitter. I'm sure somebody on that graphic that people always love to make where it's all their playoff appearances and then the blank fourth one where it says insert your own meme. 00:06:05 Speaker 3: I'm sure it's already been made. 00:06:07 Speaker 1: It's going up. 00:06:08 Speaker 3: Uh, yeah, it's going up. 00:06:09 Speaker 1: This is one of the greatest accomplishments in Seattle Mariner's franchise history. If you were to guess, has there ever been a point besides two thousand and one where this is the case. 00:06:20 Speaker 3: Is there a shot in ninety five? 00:06:21 Speaker 2: I mean, fangrapts didn't exist back then. 00:06:25 Speaker 1: Using their same calculations. Probably not. We've gone through that Cleveland roster they lost to. Oh yeah, no, no, I don't think they were favored over that team, Dude. 00:06:38 Speaker 2: That Cleveland roster had Jim Tomey hitting sixth Yeah, in his prime? 00:06:44 Speaker 3: Yeah? Was that his prime? Or was that too early to say it was his prime? 00:06:49 Speaker 1: Pretty close? 00:06:50 Speaker 2: Yeah, And again it was warranted that he was hitting sixth AKA, there were five guys ahead of them that were so good that he was hitting sixth. 00:06:58 Speaker 3: That Cleveland roster was nuts. 00:07:00 Speaker 2: But anyway, this series in twenty twenty five, not in ninety five in Kansas City, they took care of business. We said that they needed to go minimum three and three on this road trip. Well, they seem like they're set up to do that now hopefully, And you should be greedy. You shouldn't settle for three and three. We were saying three and three is the minimum. Go take at least two in Houston, because you've set yourself up incredibly well by winning the series you're supposed to win. 00:07:27 Speaker 3: Now, go win the division. 00:07:30 Speaker 2: Take advantage of this upcoming series, and go slam your foot on the gas here against the Astros. 00:07:36 Speaker 1: And fortunes have gone their way this week as well. We got our wish that the Astros swept the Rangers, so they eliminated the Rangers almost entirely out of the playoff race. The counterbalance to that is now you and the Astros are tied and there's no separation going into the series. Whoever wins this series is going to come out with the two game lead in the division. It's not one. It's a two game swing for winning this series. Two games gain. 00:08:00 Speaker 3: Two games, right, That's because and just to explain it to people. 00:08:04 Speaker 2: Most of you probably already know, but just in case, whoever wins this series is going to own the tiebreaker for the year. So it is a massive, massive swing on who wins this series, because if you end the year tied, it's gonna go to the tiebreaker. If the Mariners win two of three, it will be their biggest series win of the year. It may be their biggest series win in twenty plus years. 00:08:25 Speaker 1: It is going to be really hard for the loser of this series to win this division. Think about it from this perspective. Let's say the Mariners win this series and they're now essentially two games up on the Astros. Then the Astros have to worry about gaining two games on the Mariners while the Mariners get to play three games against the Rockies. HM. 00:08:49 Speaker 2: Does that sound realistic? Realistic? It's in the realm of possibility. I'm sure as hell wouldn't be banking on it. 00:09:00 Speaker 1: And then think about this from the Mariners perspective. The Mariners still have a three game series with the Dodgers to finish the season. If they lose this series and they are two games back of the Astros to win the Division. Are you gonna gain two games on the Astros when they go play the A's and the Angels. The A's are maybe the equivalent of the dot lom. This is silly to say. Let me just hang with me here. Been playing better. The A's have been playing better recently, So that would be the series the Mariners need to gain games on the Astros with. But then the Astros also play the Angels, which again you and I saw that team. They don't they don't really care, no, so the Astros are gonna sweep them. 00:09:41 Speaker 3: Mm hmm. 00:09:42 Speaker 1: That's what you have to worry about this series. I shit you not. This is probably one of the five most important series that the Mariners have ever played in the regular season. 00:09:52 Speaker 2: Ever, I think it's the most important one in twenty five plus years, because what are the other arguments here? You could say the A's series twenty twenty two when they clinched, which sure, that was really memorable. That was also to clinch a wild card. Now we're talking about the division, we're talking about potential home field advantage, we're talking about potentially them getting a buye in the playoffs. That doesn't compare in terms of magnitude to clinching a wildcard spot in twenty two. This is way bigger, and the A's weren't playing for anything back then. That was a terrible team that the Mariners beat to clinch their postseason birth. The Astros are fighting neck and neck with you for a division. 00:10:29 Speaker 1: The only other options I think are in ninety five. I think it would be ninety five. There's probably a few series in ninety five you could choose to choose to match up with this, And then I would also say, I think we look at this one differently because of the results of this this and we know the results. I think that twenty twenty three final stretches right up there. Twenty twenty three, the Astros led both the Rangers and the Mariners by half a game for the American League West, and then all of those teams essentially round robined each other to finish the season. The Mariners had seven games against the Rangers and three against the Astros to close out the season. The only reason we don't say the Mariners series against those two teams down the stretch of that year weren't as important as this one is because as soon as that ten game stretch started, the Mariners got swept by the Rangers and were out of the division right away. That's why it wasn't big. They had a big series in front of them, and they folded like a deck of cards. I don't think this team is going to fold like a deck of cards. It helps that the Astros are not as good as that Texas Rangers team was, but this Marit's team is also just better and they're playing better, and you look at their rotation, it's just more sustainable. That twenty twenty three Mariners team was running on fumes and a very inconsistent offense that was ultimately the reason they missed the playoffs. So I would agree with you. I think there's a real argument for this to be the most important series they've ever played. And what a capper that they're gonna get Sunday Night Baseball, which I would guess is going to be the game that decides this series. I'm thinking with the two horses going on each side to start this series, that it's gonna be a one to one split heading into that Sunday Night. 00:12:16 Speaker 3: Baseball hell of a ride to hell of a ride. 00:12:21 Speaker 2: Do we want to dig into the matchups for this weekend or is there anything we want to cap off with the Royal series? 00:12:27 Speaker 1: Can I give Luis Casti you at least a little shout here? The Mariners really have needed this version of Luis Castile as last three starts. Listen to these six innings one earned against Atlanta, six innings one earned against the Angels, six innings, no earned runs today against the Royals. That dates back right to the start of this streak that they're currently on that put them back in this position because before the streak started, they were hanging on to their playoff spot, and this streak has put them in square position to not only win the division, but to get a byas well. And I don't think they do that without Louis Castillo. He has been great, and it also because his last four starts before that were horrendous. It was nineteen earned runs in seventeen innings. These three starts were much needed, and. 00:13:14 Speaker 2: He's gonna get one more start in the regular season at home against the Rockies. So you're talking about an end of the year for Louis Castillo in a September that's been vital. You're right, he sparked the start of the wind streak again. He gave them a really important start against the Angels, and he saved their ass against the Royals here on Thursday, saved them absolute dominant work, especially considering Luis was on the mound back in twenty two when that collapse started. That wasn't the case here on Thursday. He went out and flat out Dell. He kept those guys at check all day long. Shout out the Rock. 00:13:49 Speaker 1: One another other thing from this Royal series. I want to give Annie Bissel his flowers properly. And for all of you who don't know the story of how all of this came to be in the game Tame and what you were watching, let us fill you in right now, because I think lyle like this might be one of the craziest and most successful challenges we've ever seen in Major League Baseball. It all starts early in the game, where Andy's talking about postgame. He says, we're always looking at this stuff with the new rules in place and the shift rules that you have to be on the dirt. If they noticed someone is getting a little lax with their positioning and they're scooting pretty close back to the grass, they're gonna look and see if they can take advantage of that later in the game, and Andy noted that they noticed that Michael Massey, the second baseman, was standing way back in the hole at second base, and saw that his heels were on the grass, and they're like, you know what, let's sit on this and see if we can use it to our advantage later in the game, because there's no point in doing it early in the game when you could use it in an advantageous situation late. And what do you know, the eighth then he comes up and they see Dominic canzone in a crucial spot in a one run lead, ground out to second base, and you take full advantage of that opportunity to get dom on base, and see that Massy's back heel was on the grass, and then JP comes up and doubles dom In and that's that man. And it works out great because I would have really been sweating in that ninth inning if it was only a one run lead. 00:15:22 Speaker 2: That really is just a psychotic challenge. And I mean that in all the best of ways. Absolutely psychotic challenge that worked to their total advantage and got them a massive insurance run. That was crazy work from Andy, So shout out to him to pick up on that and to see it in real time and then to utilize it wild. 00:15:43 Speaker 3: If this was a lot to do. 00:15:44 Speaker 1: There's a lot of details that goes into the stuff behind the scenes that I think people don't really know about. Like this is really a full coaching staff effort to be on top of this and take advantage of it when it happens, because like this is playing in like the second inning. Once they noticed this that they're going to try this later in the game if it works in their fortune. And it's great, And you know, we've talked to Andy plenty at the ballpark. He listens to the podcast like he's one of the nicest hardworking dudes out there, and we're glad he got his shine and he gets the whole media backdrop today too, and the reporter scrum. It's fantastic. 00:16:19 Speaker 2: There's something that he probably didn't think was gonna happen rolling out of bed today. 00:16:22 Speaker 1: Yeah probably not Ryan Divish grilling you after the game. I mean, everyone's favorite. 00:16:27 Speaker 3: That's utopia right there. 00:16:30 Speaker 1: It is perfect, It really is. Do you want to look now look ahead to this series? 00:16:35 Speaker 2: I do. And we only need to spend about ten seconds on this because it's stating the obvious, and the more important thing here now and what people want to hear about more now is what's about to happen going forward and what's about to happen in what's the Mariner's biggest series in the last twenty five plus years. So I'll just spend ten seconds on this because it's stating the obvious. You can't get picked off at first base, Kulio. That has to be the last time this season this happened. It can't happen again. Games are too crucial. It's not like you're chasing a slider that happens. You can't make base running blunders. 00:17:06 Speaker 1: Like that, this late in the year as the trail runner. 00:17:09 Speaker 3: As the trail runner, it can't happen. 00:17:11 Speaker 1: Yeah, not good. Okay, let's look ahead to this Astro series. These pitching matchups give you everything you want. Brian Move versus Hunter Brown on Friday, George Kirby versus Framber Valdez on Saturday, Logan Gilbert versus Jason Alexander on Sunday. I kind of like the matchups for the Mariners because last time the Mariners faced Hunter Brown, they hit him pretty well, knocked him out of the game pretty early in the game. Merits ended up losing that game, but we're not gonna talk about that. The matchup against Brown was successful. Framber Valdez against the Mariners over the years has not been the most successful matchup for him. They've knocked him aroun a little bit, and he's ended up throwing at Mariners a couple of times because he's gotten a little frustrated from them hitting him. And on top of that that, you have your best road starter starting in game one, and we've seen this season. I mean, you can go to his last start, you can go to earlier in the season, what the best version of George Kirby looks like. And all of a sudden, you're liking this matchup. Jord On Alvarez is out of the lineup for the Astros. He might not be back in this regular season. The injury gods look at you positively, and I think so do the pitching matchups. 00:18:34 Speaker 3: And I think that's a bad take. You like these matchups. 00:18:39 Speaker 2: You can be a baseball fan and be fired up about these matchups. If you've got no dog in this fight, you're sitting there thinking to yourself, what an awesome slate of pitching matchups, and it is if you're a fan of the Seattle Mariners who cares about nothing but winning this series and winning this division. No, you should not want to face Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. I want to face Ryan Gusto, a healthy Spencer Arraghetti, and Colton Gordon. I don't want to face Hunter Brown and Framber. 00:19:03 Speaker 1: What would we say if they shut out the Mariners? We'd say typical they would. 00:19:07 Speaker 2: Or I'm sorry, let me throw one other name in there too, the absolute corpse of Lance mccolors. I'd be fine facing him too, who's got a seventy RA. I want to face all of those guys, not Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. Man Framber is one hundred innings against the Mariners in his career. That is that's a lot. 00:19:23 Speaker 1: Yeah, we look at look he's made two starts against the Mariners this year and he's done very well. But each of the previous three seasons against the Mariners, it has not been very successful for Framber. He had an area of four and twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three an EREA of six to six, and last year in EREA over five and this version of the lineup he has not gotten to face yet. I'm yeah, I'm I still like. 00:19:50 Speaker 2: The Mariners chances here, I like them, but I'd like them better if they were facing mccullors, Gusto and Gordon. 00:19:58 Speaker 1: But we knew the Astros were not gonna roll that out in this series. Like they know what's at stake. 00:20:04 Speaker 3: I know, I know they do. 00:20:06 Speaker 1: And yes, this is what baseball is all about. Again, you want to feel that much better if they knock them around, Yes. 00:20:14 Speaker 3: But this isn't for feel good. I just want to win. 00:20:17 Speaker 2: I want to like Again, you're right that this is what baseball is all about. And if you're talking from a logical baseball fans perspective and having marquee matchups, yes, this is what baseball is all about. But if you're asking me the Mariner fan, what you want to see, I want to see them face their weakest links. 00:20:34 Speaker 3: And absolutely crush them. 00:20:35 Speaker 2: They're not gonna get that, and you've been you have to play the hand you've been dealt. But to say I love this matchup for the Mariners, I don't know if I quite say that again. For Ambers had two good starts against some Hunter Browns in the Cy Young conversation. Ye, they can do it. I'm not saying they can't. They can absolutely go hit these guys and win two of three. I'm just saying that if you're asking who I most want to face, it's not those two. 00:21:02 Speaker 1: I'll tell you what. Man Hunter Brown has thrown ten in a third innings against the Mariners in his career, and he has given up eight earned runs. 00:21:11 Speaker 3: Good, so do that again this weekend, please. 00:21:14 Speaker 1: I'm not complaining. So it's gonna be Look, we have a mailbag question asking us to predict the outcomes of this series, so we'll give it our best gander once we get to that question. But I'll tell you what. The Mariners have the roster advantage in all three phases. We've said this, so they need to go out there and they need to do it. Take advantage of the fact that Astros don't have a good chunk of their best players, and just go just go be the better team and go win, and go win in primetime too, show the country how good you are. I think this is all we want. 00:21:50 Speaker 2: If they really made a statement like that this weekend, especially on Sunday Night Baseball with the national world watching, that would be sick and Sunday, they're going to get the weakest link of this rotation this weekend, and they're gonna get Alexander and if they hit him this weekend, and if they go out and really assert their authority, that would be sick because you know what's gonna happen on Monday on all the national programming, people are gonna talk about the mirrors and say, look at those guys. They're in position to win the West. They just throttle the team that's been sitting on the throne for a decade that like they're gonna be sitting there talking about, Man, this team could make a run, this team can go beat the entire American League field, and that narrative will be sick. 00:22:29 Speaker 3: So I hope they do it. 00:22:30 Speaker 2: If they go out and absolutely make a statement in this series, the discourse around the Mariners, not just around here but nationally is gonna have people really high on life. 00:22:42 Speaker 1: The only other I think notes from this series In terms of Jordan's injury from this week, like I mentioned, it doesn't sound like he's gonna be back in the regular season. It's an ankle injury that he got when stepping on home plate. Excuse me. I think Playoffs is still TBD for him, a big loss. He was hitting really well when he came back, but he's just not been able to stay healthy. 00:23:04 Speaker 2: TVD might even be friendly. I think it's gonna be an uphill battle for him to get back on the field this year. Didn't look like a pleasant injury. Had to hobble off. Timetable was very, very wishy washy. I'm not sure Framer, Sorry, Framber, I'm not sure Jordan gets back on the field this year. 00:23:21 Speaker 1: It's it's difficult to maintain your body when you're that big. It's really hard. We've seen with John Carlos, Stan Aaron Judge has really been the outlier when it comes to being that large and that healthy. 00:23:35 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:23:35 Speaker 2: Man, And you look through this Astro's lineup and again, I know it's gonna be a series that has people sweat and bullets. Us included for every good reason. But you just look at this Astro's lineup and all the starters. Jiner Diaz ninety two ops plus. Christian Walker, to his credit, he's played much better in the second half, but still ninety two ops plus. 00:23:54 Speaker 3: That's a first. Mauricio Dubon eighty one. 00:23:58 Speaker 2: The guys that are hitting well in this lineup up, or that have hit well this year, a lot of them are out Parades isn't gonna play. Paanya has been the one really good bat, but otherwise it's mix and match with a lot of guys. Even Cam Smith, who is their prize rookie and the Kyle Tucker trade, he hasn't had a great offensive season. His ops plus is eighty eight. This is not some dominant Astros lineup. And I know the Mariners have had their problems on the road. I know Logan Gilbert and George Kirby specifically, who are going to pitch in this series, have had their issues on the road. But you are right, this is not the same Astros team that you've gone against for a long time. This is a much weaker group, an offense that's much worse, and matchups that should favor you. This is not the death lineup of going up against Priml Tuvey and then Kyle Tucker and then Bregman and then yord On and then Correa. 00:24:45 Speaker 3: This ain't that. 00:24:47 Speaker 2: It's a different brand and it's a different group of guys, and not in a good way for the Astros. I know Correa is back, but he's not the same guy he was back in twenty two. And you should have every advantage in the series. 00:24:58 Speaker 1: And I wouldn't worried about the I'm showing up flat because I think of this in comparison to the Rays series, like you're playing in a Triple A ballpark. You're still a while away from your biggest series. You're just trying to manage on the road. And the Rays got hot and they swept you. But the Mariners, I think, understand how big this series is. Like, you can't just show up and not play well like that or not play hard playing well. I guess it depends how the ball bounces, but you just can't. You're you're not gonna show up and not play hard and not be amped at. And Brian was not gonna be amped up on the mound to start that series. He absolutely knows what's up. The whole lineup knows what's up. They have this division circled. So I'm I'm so excited for this weekend and I can't wait to be glued to the television the entire time watching these games. 00:25:48 Speaker 2: Well that's cap because you will not be glued to the television the entire time. 00:25:52 Speaker 3: We won't physically, well. 00:25:53 Speaker 1: Not on Friday, but I will be watching. I will be paying attention. 00:25:56 Speaker 3: Oh, we're gonna be watching. 00:25:57 Speaker 2: And to be honest, I'm sure inside that ball park they're gonna have the game on somewhere because people are gonna want to be watching, So I'm sure, I'm sure we'll find a way. But yeah, we're gonna be sweating bullets all weekend, especially out on Friday when we're out the Savannah Banas game, which is gonna be sick and we can't wait for it. It just happens to coincide with the biggest Mariner series in twenty years that we have to multitask for. 00:26:19 Speaker 1: Hoseal twov Is gonna hit a go ahead home run in the bottom of the seventh inning as the Savannah Bananas breakout their their their fire truck dance. 00:26:27 Speaker 3: Are they start doing the gritty? 00:26:29 Speaker 1: Yeah, they start doing the gritty, and. 00:26:33 Speaker 2: All of a sudden you just hear two media members just scream and f bomb. 00:26:38 Speaker 1: But they keep doing They'll keep going through it because they're professionals. 00:26:41 Speaker 3: They are professionals. 00:26:43 Speaker 1: So a lot to look forward to this weekend, guys, I can't wait. 00:26:47 Speaker 3: We ready to get to the mailbag here in a minute. 00:26:49 Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do that after we give a quick word about our friends over at Pagatcha's Pub eighty five. Look, you guys are gonna need a spot to watch the game this weekend. Every single one of you is gonna be tuning in and I know that for fact. So if you are and you want a spot to go watch with your friends, head over there. There's awesome food at the place. There's games like pool and darts, and if you want great drink specials, we'll go during happy hour because from Monday through Friday, from two to six pm, you can get happy hour drinks for three and four bucks, all while watching the Mariners, college football, the NFL, et cetera, all across their twenty TVs inside the place. It's an awesome spot. You can go check it out. That's Pigotcha's Pub eighty five in Kirkland. 00:27:26 Speaker 1: Let's get to the Mailbag and to remind her to all of you, as it is every week. If you'd like priority on these Mailbag episodes, the place to go is our patreon Patreon dot com slash Marine Layer pod. It gets you add free episodes priority on these mail bags, and you get a Patreon co with Law and I on video one time a month. It's fabulous. There's some really great perks there. We got a nice group chat in there if you want to collaborate with other Mariners fans, really fun time. So that sounds like something you'd be interested in. Patreon dot com slash Marine Layer Pod starting it off on Patreon. It's Janette and her question is if if you controlled who's on the final roster for the playoffs, who's on this team? Who gets sent back down to Triple A. 00:28:08 Speaker 2: The easy answer I think is Harry Ford, You're just not going to carry three catchers on the playoff roster, and once that happens, you probably send him back down. Also, if you plan to keep all five starters and put one of them in the bullpen, then the odd man out is probably Legamina, if I had to guess. 00:28:24 Speaker 1: Or Luke Jackson, whichever they prefer. 00:28:26 Speaker 2: Probably probably Luke Jackson's actually thrown some decent innings. 00:28:30 Speaker 3: I bet you they keep him. 00:28:32 Speaker 1: Would that reliever throw it all? Though? 00:28:35 Speaker 3: Maybe not? But it's a last resort option. 00:28:37 Speaker 2: And again, if you need a last resort option, and you're going off, what have you done for me lately? 00:28:42 Speaker 3: Luke Jackson thrown the ball decently. 00:28:44 Speaker 1: Well, I'm with you. I did write down like a that spot doesn't matter as much, but that was the one pitcher spot that was up in the air. I think the question that comes down to me when I look at this playoff roster. I wrote it out and the only real questionestion Mark, is what you do with that last bench spot? You do we think they're gonna start Planko every day at second in the playoffs. 00:29:09 Speaker 2: I don't know that is gonna be a fascinating case because it's either that or you're gonna DH them and then you either put Leo Rivas at second base, or you'd put Polo at second base in DH canzone and you have Roe Blaze in right field for some defense. 00:29:25 Speaker 3: You're gonna have to fight. 00:29:26 Speaker 2: You're gonna have to sacrifice something one way or another, because Roblaze is obviously the much better defender over canzone. So if you put him out in right field, you want defense out there. If you decide you want canzone dhing, then you're gonna put Polo at second which is also sacrificing some defense, but you want Polo's bat in there. Polo's Bat's gonna be in there no matter what. It's just where and how. 00:29:49 Speaker 1: Back to that last bench spot, So that's talking through the second base spot. Is Cole Young gonna make this roster in the postseason, I would. 00:29:59 Speaker 2: Assume, And if they just keep everything as is, he will, because again the odd man out offensively is gonna be Harry Ford. But if the Mariners decide they want a Terrence Gore type player on their playoff roster, then sure there could be some consideration to bring some odd Taylor up for it. 00:30:15 Speaker 3: Because if the idea of the. 00:30:16 Speaker 2: Last spot is we want somebody to run the bases, so odd Taylor can do that. 00:30:21 Speaker 3: And you know, he's really fast. 00:30:23 Speaker 2: I think he just set the all time to COMBA record for stolen bases this year. He swipes a ton of bags. And if you want some speed off the bench, he could do that. And in an absolute pinch, you know he can play second base in the outfield, So is there an argument for it? 00:30:36 Speaker 3: Sure? Will they do that? You'd still be sacrificing some offense with that, and Cale Young. 00:30:43 Speaker 1: Leo has his spot clamped down. I think I think he's earned his spot on the postseason roster. The question arises with Cole because he's only started two games this month. We're on September eighteenth, he started twice. If he's just not gonna play when he's working on something, which is fine. He's young, he's twenty two years old. If there's mechanical things he needs to work on to earn his starting spot back, that's fine. He can work through those. I don't think the playoff roster is the spot to be working on those on. And if your idea for that spot is we would use Cole Young in base running situations, I would rather like you have Samad Taylor or Miles Master Bony Master Bonie is a good bit faster by sprint speed this year. It's almost twenty twenty percentile points higher than Cole Young this year at the big league level. And Samad Taylor you mentioned the stolen bases. He's a ninety six percentile runner in triple A. That is, if you want someone to run, I think that's the guy you go with, and you don't just keep Cole Young there to sit. 00:31:51 Speaker 2: If they're gonna make a move like that, I think it's gonna be Taylor. I know Mastros had the big league time this year, but if they needed master Bony for something, I feel he would be the guy that would replace Revos if heaven forbid, he got injured. If you are calling somebody up for this role to run the bases, I know Mastro can run. 00:32:09 Speaker 3: I feel like it would be some odd. 00:32:10 Speaker 2: Taylor because again, Taylor can go play second base and he can play the outfield. If you really need him to, you'd have somebody out there. Master Bony's more of an infield er. I know he played some right field this year, but if you're going for speed, it's Taylor. 00:32:24 Speaker 1: And your hope is you wouldn't have to use either of them. You just win every game by a lot. 00:32:29 Speaker 3: That'd be great. 00:32:30 Speaker 1: That'd be great, Yeah, Mastrow, especially with Rayley on the bench. So Raley I penciled it on the bench and he can play center, which would be the only the only other thought of like Mastro since he has technically played some outfield. 00:32:43 Speaker 2: That yeah, Now, what do you do if a lefty's on the mound in the playoffs? In that scenario, do you leave Dom on the bench? I'd assume you put Roeblason right, you would DH polo and have Rivos play second. 00:32:58 Speaker 1: Sure, I mean you have to sacrifice some spot in the lineup. There's not enough righties on this roster to balance that out. 00:33:05 Speaker 3: But that feels like that's what you do, right. 00:33:08 Speaker 2: You're trying not to expose Dom against the dominant lefty, assuming that's. 00:33:11 Speaker 3: Who you'd face in a postseason game. 00:33:12 Speaker 2: So Framber, Yeah, Framber, Scooball, whoever. So you DH polo, put Roblason right and revs at second. 00:33:21 Speaker 1: Dom's hit lefties this year. They depending on how they feel, they might just roll with it. 00:33:26 Speaker 3: Well, he'd come into that game. 00:33:28 Speaker 2: I'm not saying you wouldn't play, but I'm saying once you get a righty in there, then you'd throw them out. Yeah, you're right, he's he's hit lefties better. He hasn't hit for much power against lefties, but just average wise and picking up hits. 00:33:38 Speaker 3: He has gotten hits. 00:33:40 Speaker 1: We'll see maybe this weekend he'll tell us because there's Framber. Since Framber is starting this weekend and it's essentially a playoff series, it'll be a good first test. 00:33:49 Speaker 3: Mm hmm, definitely. 00:33:51 Speaker 1: Next question comes from Tanner on Patreon and Tanner's question is, with the season winding down, who has been your favorite pitcher and position player this year? And why? Also, do you think five years eighty million dollars for Josh Naylor is a good deal. 00:34:06 Speaker 2: Let's just answer the first question first, because I feel like it's easy. Cal Riley, Brian Wu. Do you have a different answer? 00:34:12 Speaker 1: Cal really felt too basic. So I chose Josh Naylor because he's fun. It puts a smile on my face. Oh, but we have the same picture. 00:34:21 Speaker 3: Can I pick Logan Evans if we're going that route. 00:34:26 Speaker 1: If you want, I mean, it's your choice. 00:34:29 Speaker 2: In terms of big league success this year, it's pretty hard not to say Brian Wu. In terms of just a story of somebody we really root for getting to the big leagues and getting some real innings this year. 00:34:38 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that favorite is up to someone's your opinion, dog who is your favorite? 00:34:46 Speaker 2: The story is probably Logan Evans In terms of on field success. To see what Brian Wo did this year is impeccable, So it's hard not to say Wu. 00:34:55 Speaker 1: I chose Brian Woo not only because he was the best, because uh, City's the only pitcher not to frustrate me a lot at certain points AKA on the road, correct exactly. He's the only one where I'm like, yep, we know what we're getting. 00:35:12 Speaker 2: By the way, have you seen this dude online who looks like Brian Wood has been like reacting to all. 00:35:17 Speaker 1: Of his starts on TikTok. 00:35:19 Speaker 3: Yeah, on TikTok he's doing twitch streams. 00:35:21 Speaker 2: I think, yeah, yeah, it's pretty funny. You've seen this guy? If I've seen it, I wonder if Brian's seen him. I'm guessing he has. We should have asked him that the other day when we did the interview with him, but I forgot. 00:35:32 Speaker 1: Maybe we see him again the next home San Laska, because he looks very much alike. 00:35:38 Speaker 2: Yeah, he looks similar. Anyway, what would a Josh Naylor contract look like? It's funny. So Passing was on Brockens Talk this week, as he always is every Tuesday, and they were asking him a similar question and he seemed to think that well. ESPN put out an article about incoming free agents and him and Kylie mcdanie you'll work together on it, and he was saying that Kylie said he thought Naylor was gonna get something more like three years in. 00:36:07 Speaker 3: The fifty two to fifty. 00:36:10 Speaker 2: Four million dollar range if I had that right now pass and said he personally felt like that was low balling it a little bit, and him and Kylie didn't see totally eye to eye on that. I think because of Naylor's age, he is gonna fight for more years. 00:36:22 Speaker 3: Which is warranted. 00:36:24 Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't think it's gonna cost five years for one hundred million dollars for Naylor. I would think if you were to give him something in the four for seventy five range, that could get it done aav It's a little bit less than what Christian Walker got this passed offseason with three for sixty, but it's an extra year in total, it's a little more guaranteed money, and it feels like about the right price range for a first baseman that again is not gonna accrue insane war, but you know how valuable he is to this team. 00:36:55 Speaker 1: Why do we think he's getting such a short deal. Is it just because the market has changed? 00:37:01 Speaker 3: Yes, I mean Pete Alonso just got a one in one. 00:37:05 Speaker 1: Right, which is kind of crazy. But I'm looking at all these other contracts signed by productive first baseman around Josh Naylor's age. Jay Croninworth got seven years for eighty million dollars. Wilson Contreras got five years for eighty seven and a half million dollars. Chris Brian is better than Josh Naylor, so that's kind of unfair to comparison, and he's not really a first baseman. So and then we have the the Walker deal, which is still would be more money than what Josh Naylor would get. 00:37:35 Speaker 3: There. 00:37:35 Speaker 1: I'll tell you if it's a three year contract that works out really well for the Mariners, I think their odds of signing him are significantly higher if it's a three year contract as opposed to a five year contract. The Maritors have been anything but consistent about not wanting to sign guys through their age thirty five season, but they will sign guys once they are past their age thirty five season, and cooked that's the rule. 00:38:00 Speaker 2: You mean, like Donovan Solano and AJ Pollock, Are we forgetting somebody? I feel like we might be. 00:38:08 Speaker 1: Colton Long was less than thirty five. 00:38:11 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Naylor's age should help with this, right, because if you're gonna give him a four year deal, which I don't think would totally turn the Mariners away. Then you're talking about signing a guy who would play through his age thirty two season in Seattle twenty nine, thirty thirty one, thirty two. That's pretty reasonable. You're not gonna be thirty five. You're gonna be a power hitting first baseman in his early thirties and late twenties. Pretty reasonable deal. I would hope if he's looking for about four years, they could get that done. They gave Nelson Cruz four years when he was much older than Naylor. Again, I know it's a different profile, but still the idea remains. I know it was also a different front office and a different leader of the ownership group at that time. But even still, if you can give Nelson Cruz that deal, there's no reason you can't give Josh Naylor a four year deal. 00:39:02 Speaker 1: Four years at seventeen to eighteen million dollars a year, sign me right up, one hundred percent, perfectly reasonable. Next question comes from Josh on Patron, and Josh's question is take into account the projected pitching matchups. What's your game by game win loss prediction for the remainder of the regular season? 00:39:23 Speaker 3: Oh, every game? 00:39:25 Speaker 1: Mm hmm. 00:39:27 Speaker 2: I thought we might just do the Astros. Okay, let's think through this. I think they win the Brian Wu start Friday. I think they get to I think they get to Hunter Brown, and I think Brian Wu steps up in a huge way. I think Saturday, if you were to pick a game they could lose, it feels like it could be that one. They've struggled against Bramberg this year. We know Kirby's had his problems on the road. I'll say they lose that one. Where are you at? 00:39:52 Speaker 1: I'm with you on that yep? 00:39:53 Speaker 3: Okay? 00:39:55 Speaker 2: And then I think they win the Sunday Night baseball game. 00:39:57 Speaker 3: Logan. 00:39:58 Speaker 2: Logan takes down Alexander the Mariners in two of three, they put on a show on the national stage, and they win the Astro Series. 00:40:05 Speaker 1: You're gonna be shocked by this. Did not even bother writing out the pitching matchups to the Rocky Series, win win, win, Yes. 00:40:13 Speaker 3: And if they do anything else besides that unacceptable. 00:40:17 Speaker 1: Do you know It's really kind of crazy that I didn't even realize until I wrote this all out. The Mariners by the end of that Rocky Series, if they do exactly what we just said, would already bit eighty nine wins. 00:40:28 Speaker 3: Dude, that's nuts. 00:40:29 Speaker 1: That's kind of crazy. I didn't think they were getting to eighty nine wins this year. But all they need to do is beat the Astros and take care of one of the worst teams in baseball history at home, where they're twenty and three in their last twenty three games, and they're eighty nine wins and still of the series left to play. That almost certainly gets you in the playoffs that stretch. If you do that, you're in the playoffs. 00:40:53 Speaker 2: Yeah, and assuming you can win at least one against the Dodgers, that's another ninety win season. 00:40:57 Speaker 3: Which is funny because we thought. 00:40:58 Speaker 2: For a while they're eighty four wins, eighty five wins could win the division. 00:41:03 Speaker 1: I said eighty six at the beginning of. 00:41:04 Speaker 3: The year, we said eighty six to get in the playoffs, right. 00:41:08 Speaker 1: No, I said eighty six and they would miss, oh right, but eighty six might miss this year. 00:41:15 Speaker 2: But we talked about at some point in the middle of the year that eighty five wins could win you the al Wes. 00:41:19 Speaker 3: That's not gonna happen now. 00:41:21 Speaker 1: No, yeah, no, I think it was looking a little bit more mid earlier this year. 00:41:26 Speaker 2: Okay, and then the Dodgers series to close it out. So again, will I. 00:41:30 Speaker 1: Have those matchups written? Yeah, so it's Kershaw and his final career start, by the way, on Friday, ever, he's retiring, well, final regular season start, and we're a texting our friend who's a Dodger's pretty die here Dodgers fan said he does not think Kershaw's pitching in the playoffs. No, so these might be it. This might be it for Kershaw on that Friday. 00:41:53 Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's a pretty prominent Dodgers Twitter figure too. If you've seen Blake Harris on Twitter, who's got a really big following that's been here on the pod. Oh right, a couple years ago we had him on. So yeah, he thinks they're probably not gonna roll Kershaw out in a postseason start, so maybe he pitch out of the bullpen. Maybe he just wouldn't be on the roster. But yeah, if you're gonna throw glass Now and Blake Snell and show Hey and Yamamoto in the postseason, that doesn't really leave a spot for Kershaw. 00:42:21 Speaker 1: No, So Kershawn is gonna face up off with Kirby on Friday. Glass Now versus Gilbert a lot of tall long hair on the mound on Saturday, and then Emmett Sheen and Bryce Miller on Sunday. 00:42:35 Speaker 3: I think the Mariners win Friday and Sunday's game of that series. 00:42:42 Speaker 1: I flip floffed Friday and Saturday. But honestly, with the at that point, it depends what the Mariners are playing for. Like what if the Tigers tank? Like what did they get swept by the Guardians again in the middle of the week, Then the Mariners have a two game lead on them with the tiebreaker for the number two seed. 00:42:59 Speaker 2: Yeah, then that point you're rolling out hangover lineups. You're not playing anybody, You're resting everybody. 00:43:03 Speaker 1: Right, which is why I kind of had a hard time predicting this series. But I think the Mariners can't win two out of three against the Dodgers at home, but it might just might not matter so right, which is fine by me. Yeah, I'm a big fan of hangover lineups. That would put the Mariners at ninety one wins, which is kind of crazy. That would be their fourth most wins they've ever won in a season. 00:43:26 Speaker 2: Wow, So what is what one, two, three, yep, and then twenty five? 00:43:34 Speaker 1: Yeah, how many wins. Do they win in two thousand? 00:43:39 Speaker 2: I can't remember, but I remember in two and oh three they won ninety three games each of those years and missed the playoffs. 00:43:45 Speaker 1: In two thousand they might have won ninety one. Yeah, they won ninety one and seventy one, so have been tied for the fourth most. That's kind of crazy. This roster. 00:43:55 Speaker 3: Amazing. I mean this roster. Yes, the post deadline roster. 00:43:59 Speaker 1: Sure, the deadline roster. 00:44:02 Speaker 2: No, no, no, Donovan Solano rowdy to Lesliodi Taveras that like die in a ninety one team. 00:44:09 Speaker 1: Next question comes from Xander on Patreon, and Xander's question is in spirit of the Savannah Bananas coming to T Mobile on Friday and Saturday, who do you think the surprise guests that will they will have on the field will be during the series. 00:44:27 Speaker 2: I think there's two obvious ones. One could be each your Row because he's at the field every day, he works out with the Mariners every day. He also doesn't travel on the road as far as I'm concerned, so he would be right in the area. And this also feels like the exact type of thing at this point in his life that he'd love to do. It's like, hey, each row, you want to get out in front of a huge crowd and pitch for an inning? I bet you'd say absolutely so he'd be one. And Marshawn feels like a guy that would do this type of thing. So if I were to pick two of the more, if there were betting odds on this. 00:44:57 Speaker 3: I bet you those two would be pretty high. 00:44:59 Speaker 1: What about because he still lives in the area more Shawn doesn't, they could do that would be fun. I think there's one slam dunk obvious one that has to show up, Kyle Seeger. 00:45:17 Speaker 2: I mean that would be That would be the greatest troll job of all time. He refuses to even step foot back in the city for anything else since he stopped playing, But then when the Savannah Bananas come to town, he flies all the way out from North Carolina to Seattle just to show up and play in that just. 00:45:35 Speaker 1: To do a TikTok dance in a backflip. I'm actually kidding. I don't think so. The only other thing I could think of, because they've tried to tie it in with baseball in a lot of these cities, but the Mariners don't have a lot of easy options that people that would sort of fit the status required for a guest appearance. 00:45:55 Speaker 2: Unless they're gonna fly out Felix, who was just here about a month and a half. 00:45:58 Speaker 1: Ago, they could Does Felix want to fly all away from Miami for a Savannah Banana's appearance. 00:46:04 Speaker 3: I don't know. 00:46:06 Speaker 1: It's a good question. Kyle Seger would be great if he didn't not want to see the Mariners ever. Ever, so I think it'll be fun though, I honestly betting odds it's gonna be. I think it'll be a Seahawk, So it's usually how it goes. 00:46:23 Speaker 2: Yeah, unless again it's Eachiro or it's Randy, or they get somebody of that notion. 00:46:28 Speaker 1: Sometimes they have multiple so it could be a Seahawk and a Mariner. Hey, maybe they'll get our guy, Charlie Furbush. 00:46:34 Speaker 3: That would be funny. But it's like, yay, he'd fit right in. 00:46:39 Speaker 1: He would. Yeah. Tom Wilhelmson too, Yeah, exactly, Tom and his prime I think would be perfect for this. 00:46:46 Speaker 3: This is this is gonna be really fun again. 00:46:48 Speaker 2: I honestly wish they had come to town in the middle of the season so we could have had a sole focus on this and just enjoying it. Not that we're not going to on Friday, because we are. It just again happens to coincide with this massive, massive Marquis Mariners series that so much weight of the season is hanging on. 00:47:07 Speaker 1: Do we think more people are gonna be watching Root Sports or the Savannah Bananas on Friday evening? 00:47:13 Speaker 3: Well, here's the good news. You can do both. 00:47:15 Speaker 2: If you're watching from home, you can have Root on and just pull up your phone and watch on YouTube. Because the Savannah Banas can watch. You can watch all the games on YouTube. 00:47:22 Speaker 1: Actually, no, I meant in the stadium. 00:47:26 Speaker 3: Oh, I think people are gonna be multitasking. 00:47:28 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I don't think the viewership numbers are gonna be that low forty seven thousands of very low number for viewership, but it's still gonna be some decent competition. But regardless, I agree with you. I think people are gonna be multitasking. The service in there is good enough and I cannot blame people for wanting to do both. Now, next question comes on Patreon. This comes from Robert and he says, hot take, Edward Bizardo should be the eighth inning leverage guy, not Brash am I crazy. 00:47:59 Speaker 2: A little, but look, I understand the trepidation. Matt Brash is not of the same second half as he's had first half. His first half VRA was below one. In the second half, it's four to three in his whips one to five. It's Look, there's been some tough sledting for Matt Brash in the second half. I don't think you're gonna yank him out of that spot this late in the year. But I just think a combination of all four of those guys Brash, Bizardo, spy Er Munos, we'll throw in different pockets in different situations in the postseason for where they best fit. 00:48:30 Speaker 1: You know what I think. I think Edward Bizarto is great, and he's pitched really well, and he's earned himself some leverage spots. I think Matt Brash has gotten a little unlucky in the second half. His numbers, besides the ERA, haven't changed that much. His hard hit rate is up less than three percent, his walk rate is up less than two percent. His strikeout rate, by the way, is up five in the second half. Does that really coincide with an almost half batter raise and whip Do you know what sticks out to me a little bit more the fact that his batting average on balls in play is one hundred and fifty points higher in the second half, despite not getting hit harder at all, and not like he's getting shelled with line drives all over the place. Honestly, think he's just gotten a little unlucky. And I think Wednesday essentially showed that the expected batting average on that Fraser ball was sixty. It should be an out, but instead he gave up a two run home run in zero innings, which inflates your era enormously. So yeah, I think it's at a little bit unlucky. The stuff still looks really good. The walk rate should probably be a little bit lower, but otherwise I just don't see anything to be concerned with. 00:49:52 Speaker 2: I just feel like sometimes these days with Matt Brash, you can tell within the first batter if it's gonna be smooth sailing or not. Example, against the Royals on Wednesday, you could tell him the first batter, Oh, he doesn't have his best stuff today. 00:50:05 Speaker 1: Walking the leadoff batter is never a successful thing. Hence the walk rate going down. 00:50:10 Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, those numbers don't scream that he's had some massive drop off in the second half. I also just think that this is a guy coming off Tommy John. He has been worked a lot. They've really asked a lot of him in his first year back from Tommy John, and part of me wonders if there's any fatigue factor there. Now, look the appearance he made on Wednesday. He was on three days rest. It's not like they were throwing him back to back. I still just wonder if maybe there's some time in the Rocky series where you'll be able to get him a little extra rest and sit him down and just try to get him right for the postseason, especially if in the Dodgers series too, that you know the role you're gonna be in, in the seed you're gonna have, there's some ways to try to freshen up Matt Brash as much as you can so he's as ready to go for the postseason as possible. Cause I do just wonder if there's a little bit of fatigue there. 00:51:02 Speaker 1: It's possibility he did not pitch last year. No. 00:51:05 Speaker 2: Now, I would also say they're going to need him a lot in the Astro series because with all the Righty's that the Astros have. I remember this happened last time during the Astro series too, there wasn't a ton of pockets for Gabe Spire to pitch in. 00:51:19 Speaker 3: Now. 00:51:19 Speaker 2: Look me, personally, I would throw game no matter what. The maritors seem to try and protect him when there's a lot of rities out on the mound or out at the plate. So I wonder if this is going to be a series where you don't see as much Aspire, you see more brash, bizarre tommunos, and then come the Rocky series, maybe you'll have a chance to sit Brash down and just rest them a little bit. 00:51:39 Speaker 1: I'm with you on that. Last question in the mail bag comes from an Unfunkable on YouTube, and the question is has Luis Castile played himself into a starting role in the playoffs, especially because of his last three starts. I know Kirby has also been impressive this week, but Luis has a better track record overall this year. 00:51:59 Speaker 2: The postseason experience factor is real. The fact he's pitched great in September is very real. And I feel like this storyline changes every turn through the rotation because you know who two of the three spots are going to in wo and Gilbert it's about that last spot or two spots, and who's gonna take them. Somebody made a good point to us about this when we were doing some fan interviews out at the last home series. Somebody said, if if the Mariners are at home, I would roll with Castillo. 00:52:27 Speaker 3: If they're on the road, you could pivot. I actually think that's right. 00:52:31 Speaker 2: If you're the Mariners and you're gonna get home games during the playoffs and you can set it up where Luise is gonna throw it home, I would sign up for that because Luise at home versus on the road has been a lot different this year where he's thrived at home. So I think the way Luise has pitched in the last month warrants some serious consideration, if not a penciled in spot to start in the playoffs, but it needs to be a Tea mobile park. 00:52:53 Speaker 1: But it's the same thing with Kirby. Like you start a series at home, you pitch. Let's say they decide not to listen to us and pitch Louis Castilla at home and say they have to choose between Kirby and Luis for a road game in a game four, hypothetically, yeah, that does get dicey doesn't it mm hmm, Because just because it's a better idea to pitch Louis Castill at home does not mean they're gonna pass up starting Logan Gilbert with a chance to potentially go up two to zero in a series, or if you're down oh one, I'd ask Mariner fans, do you want twenty twenty five Louis Castile on the bump down oh one in a series? Everyone would say no, right, yeah, It's. 00:53:39 Speaker 2: Gonna be an interesting puzzle. The only thing that's solidified right now is Brian wu has been your best starter this year. Logan struggled on the road, Kirby struggled on the road, Luisa struggled on the road Bryce so far since getting back from injury. The reason I've fought for him a little bit is every start he's kept you in the game. But he hasn't had any truly dominant outings either, So it's gonna be an interesting puzzle. 00:54:01 Speaker 1: The track record thing is very real. But if I want a tiebreaker for this for who I would want to start, I want to say whose stuff plays up more, and at this rate, I'd say it's Kirby's Kirby's stuff has played up when he's needed it. Look at that Angel start he just had. Look at his last playoff start he had, stuff was great. And Luis Castillo, the last playoff stuff he he did, he had against the Blue Jays and against the Astros. That's as good as his stuff has ever been as a Mariner. I just don't think that's in the tank anymore unless it's sitting there just waiting to come out. When Luis Castillo was at his best in the playoffs, He's thrown one hundred miles an hour with a wipeout slider. Doesn't have those pitches really anymore. 00:54:42 Speaker 2: Who's got the lower floor in a playoff start? Who has a higher percentile chance to get blown up? Is it Kirby or Castillo? 00:54:49 Speaker 3: At this rate push. 00:54:52 Speaker 2: I almost feel like I leaned toward Kirby a little bit. Maybe the Rays starts sitting in my head too much. But the storyline with Kirby he is when he is too much in the strike zone against the wrong team, it goes south. 00:55:06 Speaker 1: The good thing about the postseason is that you don't need innings out of a guy. If he sucks, you yank him right away, Like if Kirby gives up four runs through two or through one and a third, he's getting pulled. Same with Castillo. 00:55:19 Speaker 3: I hope Dan Wilson knows that. 00:55:22 Speaker 1: I'm sure he does. 00:55:24 Speaker 3: I hope. So. I mean they're gonna have a lot. 00:55:26 Speaker 1: Of time to strategize before these series. 00:55:29 Speaker 3: Well, that's true. 00:55:30 Speaker 2: It's just this is this is a guy who's built himself on, you know, giving guys a lot of grace and a lot of leeway. 00:55:37 Speaker 3: That's the type of manager. 00:55:38 Speaker 1: This isn't the regular season, You're right. 00:55:41 Speaker 2: This would also be his first postseason as a manager, So I hope he's ready for it. 00:55:46 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:55:47 Speaker 1: Look if I mean, if he's running Kirby out there to give up nine runs and two innings, then then we're gonna come on here and we're gonna rightfully criticize it. Yeah, but I would think there's enough people around who are like guys, if a starter gives up four through an inning and a third, he's getting yanked out. 00:56:04 Speaker 3: Of the game. 00:56:04 Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't matter who it is. Brian wu does that, I'd think they'd take him out too. You gotta win. 00:56:10 Speaker 3: Well, that's the end. 00:56:11 Speaker 1: That's the name of the game. Regular season you're trying to rest, trying to make sure everyone's healthy for the long marathon. Postseason's a sprint, and if you're not first, your last, and they I think they understand. 00:56:21 Speaker 3: That you're probably You're probably right. 00:56:24 Speaker 1: I would still lean with Kirby, though, because the stuff upside is that much more and Luis Castillo's ticking up stuff is not as good as Kirby's. 00:56:34 Speaker 2: I think I'm with you. I would side that way too. It's close, but you're right that the upside of a good start in a playoff series probably leans more toward Kirby. At this point, you know that you've got the lower floor potential with Kirby, but you know you've got the higher ceiling too, because his stuff can still produce seven shutout against the Astros like he did in twenty two. 00:56:55 Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, it's good problem to. 00:56:57 Speaker 2: Have good one and a good set of out of questions. Again, man, I can't believe we only have three podcasts left to do before the end of the regular season or sorry, no. 00:57:08 Speaker 3: Yeah, three, I have that right, three? 00:57:10 Speaker 1: Yeah, three. 00:57:11 Speaker 3: That's crazy. 00:57:12 Speaker 2: We're really up against it here, and the next time we hop on with you guys, we're gonna know. We're gonna know the result of that Astro series. We're gonna know what lies ahead of them. We're gonna have a lot of the season painted out at the next time that we hop on the mic and talk to you guys. 00:57:26 Speaker 1: Buckle up, up, enjoy it. This is what we've been waiting for for our entire lives. Let's go. 00:57:35 Speaker 3: It's amazing again. 00:57:36 Speaker 2: It's gonna be nerve wracking, but enjoy that you have. You have earned your right to be in a position to have nerve wracking games because that is what it's about. So let's do it. Let's keep it rolling, all right. That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure you're downloading. Please rate and review five stars. It really does help. Also, if you're on YouTube, go hit subscribe, leave a like, drop a comment on the video, and then you can check us out across social media at marine Layer Pod and find everything else between our merch Patreon and live show schedules over in our website marine layerpod dot com. Again, one more time all across socials at Marine Layer Pod. 00:58:15 Speaker 3: That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.