Lyle and TJ open up the show discussing if they would shell out the prospects for Cubs 2B Nico Hoerner, and whether or not he would be a good fit (2:30). They the open up the mailbag and answer listener questions, highlighting historical Mariners trades, what happens with Ben Williamson, the state of the AL West, and more (20:17).
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00:00 --> 00:03 [SPEAKER_01]: Open to Episode 339 of the Marine Layer podcast.
00:03 --> 00:06 [SPEAKER_01]: It's a mailbag episode, so I'll open it up and answer your guys' best.
00:06 --> 00:07 [SPEAKER_01]: Listen to your questions.
00:07 --> 00:14 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll also take a look at Nico Horner, who's reportedly available and see how well he fits on the Mariners for the 2026 season.
00:15 --> 00:24 [SPEAKER_00]: Just a reminder to you guys, make sure if you're listening to these episodes, you're downloading and you're rating, reviewing five stars over on Apple and Spotify for watching YouTube.
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00:37 --> 00:38 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's get a rolling.
00:52 --> 01:01 [SPEAKER_01]: And we both meet to this episode of the Marine Lair, a podcast, part of the just baseball podcast network, recording here on Thursday afternoon, December 18th.
01:02 --> 01:13 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm glad we're getting to start off this episode with this topic because ever since someone brought it up in a mail bag and there's been a couple of reports leaking out over the last couple of weeks that Nico Horner could potentially be available.
01:13 --> 01:19 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I've been buying into this a lot more, pretty much every day we've looked at it.
01:19 --> 01:20 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this dude,
01:20 --> 01:22 [SPEAKER_01]: is a stud, right?
01:23 --> 01:24 [SPEAKER_00]: He is a stud.
01:24 --> 01:35 [SPEAKER_00]: In a different way than you'd usually think of your typical stars and your typical five to six war players, very different way, but an absolute star.
01:35 --> 01:37 [SPEAKER_01]: Room for the Mariners to improve their roster.
01:37 --> 01:45 [SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about the lineup, but I also think as we if you paid close enough attention to our interview with Davish on Wednesday This was the question I asked him.
01:45 --> 01:56 [SPEAKER_01]: I asked I said is there as much room for the Mariners to improve their lineup as there is to improve for their defense and their base running because if you might remember in
01:57 --> 02:02 [SPEAKER_01]: 2025, as good as that team was, there are two deficiencies where they weren't a great base running team.
02:02 --> 02:08 [SPEAKER_01]: They stole a bunch of bases, but they didn't take a lot of extra bases, and they didn't play great defense.
02:08 --> 02:14 [SPEAKER_01]: They had negative defenders at quite a few positions, and you could say it hurt them at points this season.
02:15 --> 02:24 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, Nico Warner's thing is that he's in above average offensive player, which would upgrade second base for what the production the Mariners got last year.
02:25 --> 02:27 [SPEAKER_01]: He's an elite based runner and an elite defender.
02:28 --> 02:30 [SPEAKER_01]: Things the Mariners do not really have on their roster.
02:31 --> 02:39 [SPEAKER_01]: So when you're saying you can improve that much in all three areas, there's an argument to be made out of anyone the Mariners could have acquired this off season.
02:39 --> 02:41 [SPEAKER_01]: No one makes them better in as many spots.
02:42 --> 02:45 [SPEAKER_00]: I just realized that you're ready to just jump right into it.
02:45 --> 02:54 [SPEAKER_00]: I just realized two minutes in, usually we banter and usually we bring up a couple ridiculous things to spin off the top of the show, but you can just tell him to eat his boys.
02:54 --> 02:56 [SPEAKER_00]: He's like, yeah, Nico Horner.
02:56 --> 02:58 [SPEAKER_01]: Bam, let's go.
02:58 --> 02:59 [SPEAKER_01]: I've been waiting for this.
02:59 --> 03:03 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we already talked about you ordering an Etsy which for Kyle Tucker.
03:03 --> 03:06 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's no other bogus route.
03:06 --> 03:12 [SPEAKER_01]: There's no one year, $80 million contract.
03:12 --> 03:15 [SPEAKER_01]: We just have someone I'm really excited to talk about.
03:15 --> 03:16 [SPEAKER_01]: So yes, Lyle.
03:16 --> 03:21 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm ready to get right into it Let's say offer one year $80 million a deal of Kyle Tucker.
03:21 --> 03:21 [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, sorry.
03:21 --> 03:22 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not gonna sidetrack.
03:22 --> 03:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's talk about Nico Horner.
03:24 --> 03:26 [SPEAKER_00]: This dude
03:26 --> 03:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Again, when I say he's different, he's different because when you think of five six win players, you think of the perennial all stars.
03:34 --> 03:38 [SPEAKER_00]: The guys competing for MVP's, the guys that are the faces of franchises.
03:39 --> 03:42 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if Nico Horner is quite that.
03:42 --> 03:44 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, he's not quite that.
03:44 --> 03:56 [SPEAKER_00]: That's not really what he's thought of as, but when you look at all the five to six war players across the game, they are the stars of their team.
03:57 --> 03:58 [SPEAKER_00]: is that.
03:58 --> 04:01 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's crazy to say, well, I'll let you say this.
04:01 --> 04:06 [SPEAKER_00]: I will say he is arguably the best player on the Chicago Cubs.
04:06 --> 04:09 [SPEAKER_00]: And that is because he is one of the elite defenders across the game.
04:10 --> 04:14 [SPEAKER_00]: He steals bases at a crazy rate, and he is crazy efficient doing it.
04:14 --> 04:17 [SPEAKER_00]: and he will just he's a table setter.
04:18 --> 04:24 [SPEAKER_00]: He's not going to hit for a crazy amount of pot, but everything else he does is what makes him a star.
04:24 --> 04:28 [SPEAKER_01]: And it's a cubs team that paid $180 million to Dan's V. Swanson.
04:28 --> 04:32 [SPEAKER_01]: They traded for Kyle Tucker, P. Crore, strong Rome center field.
04:32 --> 04:37 [SPEAKER_01]: If there's anyone who's like a better defender in major league baseball than Nico Horner, it's PCA.
04:38 --> 04:40 [SPEAKER_01]: He in half is one of the best left fielders in all the baseball.
04:40 --> 04:44 [SPEAKER_01]: Michael Bush is a really good
04:44 --> 04:48 [SPEAKER_01]: you could argue he's better than all of them because of what he does in the other aspects.
04:49 --> 04:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, let's say this.
04:50 --> 04:53 [SPEAKER_00]: PCA is the best defender in Major League Baseball.
04:53 --> 05:00 [SPEAKER_00]: If you go by out of a average, P. Crow Armstrong is the top ranked defender in Major League Baseball by out of a average.
05:00 --> 05:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, Nico Horner's tied for 11th with Ernie Clemente, so he is incredibly good by infielders.
05:06 --> 05:08 [SPEAKER_00]: He's in the top 7.
05:08 --> 05:12 [SPEAKER_00]: But, yeah, man, he is a very old school player.
05:12 --> 05:22 [SPEAKER_00]: If you're an old school baseball fan and you're a fan of gritty, hit-for-average, play-the-game-the-right-way, quote-unquote baseball players, that is Nico Horner.
05:23 --> 05:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna steal your line here, but he's essentially what people want LaWisa rise to be, because when people think of LaWisa rise, you think of, oh, he hits for a high average, he puts the ball in play, he does all these things, when in reality,
05:35 --> 06:04 [SPEAKER_00]: There's a reason Louisa rise is still sitting out there in free agency with almost no reported rumors linking him to any teams because he doesn't have any value besides hitting the ball for contact he can't run he can't feel he doesn't walk anything Nico Horner not only brings immense immense value with his glove on the base pads along with what he does at the plate where again we we use batting average so rarely on the show for good reason
06:05 --> 06:07 [SPEAKER_00]: 280 to 300 hit or every year.
06:08 --> 06:12 [SPEAKER_01]: And that's where his offense of value is going to be because he doesn't have much power.
06:12 --> 06:14 [SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't hit the ball very hard.
06:14 --> 06:16 [SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't barrel it very often.
06:17 --> 06:23 [SPEAKER_01]: But when you combine that with the defense in the base running, it spits out one of the most valuable players in baseball.
06:23 --> 06:25 [SPEAKER_01]: And if Nico Horner were ever to discover.
06:26 --> 06:49 [SPEAKER_01]: 15 home run power which he doesn't really do does I think he's hit Double digit home runs one time in his career if you are ever to hit 15 to 20 home runs in a season It's like a top 15 player in baseball and now there's with the the fortune of the Cubs ownership for as much money as they have being cheap knowing that
06:49 --> 06:53 [SPEAKER_01]: they have a potential PCA extension on the horizon.
06:53 --> 06:59 [SPEAKER_01]: They're already paying Dan's V. Swanson, $180 million to do essentially the same thing as Nico Horner.
06:59 --> 07:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Nico's one year away from free agency, making $12 million this year, and there's potential for them to capitalize on his value right now.
07:09 --> 07:09 [SPEAKER_00]: It's funny.
07:09 --> 07:15 [SPEAKER_00]: You say if he hit 15 to 20 bombs a year, he would be a top 10 to 15 player in the league.
07:15 --> 07:18 [SPEAKER_00]: he may already be by some accounts.
07:18 --> 07:22 [SPEAKER_00]: If you go down by the war leaders in 2025, I'll use baseball reference here.
07:22 --> 07:29 [SPEAKER_00]: But if you look at the war leaders, Nico Horner was tied for, hold on, 12th.
07:29 --> 07:31 [SPEAKER_00]: He was top 12 in the game in war.
07:31 --> 07:34 [SPEAKER_00]: The only guy's ahead of him, tell me if you've heard of any of these names.
07:34 --> 07:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Aaron Judge, Christopher Sanchez, show Heyotani, Paul Skeens, Cal Raleigh, Bobby Witt, Huraldo Perdomo, Julio, Terek Schooble, Garrett Crochet, Juan Soto.
07:43 --> 07:43 [SPEAKER_00]: That's it.
07:45 --> 07:46 [SPEAKER_00]: He had 20 home runs a year.
07:46 --> 07:49 [SPEAKER_00]: You could be talking about a potential MVP.
07:49 --> 07:53 [SPEAKER_01]: There's an aim you didn't mention because he's not above Nico Horner and War.
07:54 --> 08:02 [SPEAKER_01]: Nico Horner is more valuable by war than Kytelmarté, and there's no red flags to talk about with Nico Horner.
08:03 --> 08:09 [SPEAKER_01]: As far as we know, I mean, is an asking for more DHD, DHDs, doesn't have issues in the clubhouse.
08:10 --> 08:12 [SPEAKER_01]: You won't have to owe him as much money.
08:13 --> 08:19 [SPEAKER_00]: So let me ask you this, as we sit here talking about the potential of trading for this guy, which would be awesome.
08:20 --> 08:22 [SPEAKER_00]: And I understand he has a year left on his deal.
08:22 --> 08:34 [SPEAKER_00]: But for somebody only making $12 million in his walk year on a Chicago Cubs team that despite likely losing Kyle Tucker should still be pretty competitive, why would they trade this guy?
08:35 --> 08:37 [SPEAKER_01]: because they're not sure they can resign him.
08:38 --> 08:40 [SPEAKER_01]: And they would get more now than they would at the deadline.
08:40 --> 08:47 [SPEAKER_01]: If they flipped him at the deadline and they're for some reason uncompetitive, they're not gonna get that much for him.
08:47 --> 08:49 [SPEAKER_01]: Cause he's a two-month rental.
08:50 --> 08:55 [SPEAKER_01]: Who's really good, but even the best players will only two months available.
08:55 --> 08:56 [SPEAKER_01]: can only get so much.
08:56 --> 09:06 [SPEAKER_01]: The only rental player who potentially would have garnered even top 100 prospects at the deadline, let alone multiple was show hey when he was going to be a free agent.
09:06 --> 09:09 [SPEAKER_01]: But the angels wanted to sell more tickets so they didn't trade him.
09:10 --> 09:13 [SPEAKER_01]: Nico Horner is not show heyotani, so he can't get that much.
09:14 --> 09:21 [SPEAKER_01]: If they were to trade them right now, could the cubs get coal-young back?
09:22 --> 09:28 [SPEAKER_00]: One for one swap, I mean for the Mariners, it feels like there's a chance that would be the asking price, right?
09:28 --> 09:37 [SPEAKER_00]: Because if the Cubs are going to trade a second basement with a year left on his deal, they probably want a club controlled second baseman for the foreseeable future, especially if you think you're not going to sign hoarder long term.
09:39 --> 09:48 [SPEAKER_00]: It's so interesting because again, a year left on these contracts always makes these deals a little muddy and it's hard to perfectly gauge what a trade package would look like.
09:49 --> 09:55 [SPEAKER_00]: But if you're the cubs, your argument is for every good reason going to be this was one of the 12 best players in baseball last year.
09:56 --> 10:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Why would we not get somebody like a former top 40 to 50 prospect who is a long-term second-based solution?
10:04 --> 10:05 [SPEAKER_00]: So question, would you do that deal?
10:07 --> 10:11 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if you're serious about winning in 2026, it has to be on the table.
10:12 --> 10:14 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you have to lean toward
10:15 --> 10:17 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, this hurts me to say, because I love Coyoung.
10:17 --> 10:36 [SPEAKER_00]: And I love the idea of not just, I mean, not just us having some level of a relationship with the guy, but the idea of who he can be long term and being arguably the best Mariners second basements since Robbie Cano, considering that he is such a high floor and is profiles sustainable and he's got the ability to walk.
10:37 --> 10:41 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's so much there that screams, he'll be a top 10 second basement for a long time.
10:42 --> 10:46 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying the best in the league, but you know, and that's seven to 10 range, just second basement once he hits his prime.
10:48 --> 11:01 [SPEAKER_00]: But if you're serious about going for this year and winning in 2026, and you're looking at one of the best players in the league, and maybe the best second basement in baseball, you can argue, yeah, I think it has to be on the table.
11:02 --> 11:02 [SPEAKER_00]: For the right price.
11:03 --> 11:08 [SPEAKER_01]: And on top of that, if you call young's not the price,
11:09 --> 11:14 [SPEAKER_01]: or even if Coyoung's not the prospects, the prospect you decide to trade for Nico Horner.
11:14 --> 11:17 [SPEAKER_01]: Once you trade for Nico Horner, Coyoung's value is not the same.
11:17 --> 11:25 [SPEAKER_01]: It's the same thing as signing Calarolli to an extension and having Harry Ford's value go down, knowing there's just little room for him to play.
11:25 --> 11:27 [SPEAKER_01]: And next year's a big year for Coyoung.
11:27 --> 11:28 [SPEAKER_01]: His value does not increase.
11:29 --> 11:39 [SPEAKER_01]: If he spends the year in AAA or if he spends the year on the Mariners bench and he's not gonna play third because he's not a third basement.
11:39 --> 11:54 [SPEAKER_01]: And in that case, right, if you're having a very crucial development year for coal young, essentially being taken away unless he's the return for Nico Horner, it's almost a value malpractice, right?
11:55 --> 12:00 [SPEAKER_01]: And at least the return you get is by war last year, the best second basement in baseball.
12:01 --> 12:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I was going to ask, what do you do with Coyoung if that's not who you trade for Horner?
12:05 --> 12:06 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, man.
12:07 --> 12:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Because the problem here is both those guys are second baseman.
12:13 --> 12:17 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not, oh, Coyoung can move around a bed or Horner can move around a bit.
12:17 --> 12:20 [SPEAKER_00]: Horner has played a little bit of short stop in his career.
12:20 --> 12:26 [SPEAKER_00]: but his value isn't even close at any other position, even in a smaller sample size.
12:26 --> 12:30 [SPEAKER_00]: By rate, his value is not even close to what he is at second base.
12:31 --> 12:33 [SPEAKER_00]: And Koliang is only a second baseman.
12:33 --> 12:35 [SPEAKER_00]: See, Nico Horner, it's interesting.
12:35 --> 12:36 [SPEAKER_00]: He had
12:37 --> 12:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Big time platoon splits last year, where he just crushed lefties.
12:42 --> 12:47 [SPEAKER_00]: His OPS was close to a thousand against lefties last year, and it was in the 600s against righties.
12:47 --> 12:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, this is not me saying you'd platoon horn or you wouldn't.
12:50 --> 12:55 [SPEAKER_00]: He's an everyday player because he has so much value that even goes away from his bat, like we've talked about.
12:55 --> 12:58 [SPEAKER_00]: I was even trying to think about as we're getting ready for this show.
12:58 --> 13:07 [SPEAKER_00]: Could Horner move around on days where a righty's on the mound and you let Cole Young play the those, at second base those days and then would have left these on the mound, that's when Horner plays second.
13:08 --> 13:09 [SPEAKER_00]: The problem is only,
13:10 --> 13:12 [SPEAKER_00]: 20% of the league is lefty's roughly.
13:12 --> 13:16 [SPEAKER_00]: So you're not getting maximum value at a Nico Horner if you do that.
13:16 --> 13:16 [SPEAKER_01]: No.
13:17 --> 13:24 [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm just trying to piece all the, you know, I'm trying to piece together all the puzzle pieces and figure out where Cole Young and Nico Horner could work on the same roster.
13:25 --> 13:26 [SPEAKER_00]: I just don't know if it would.
13:26 --> 13:27 [SPEAKER_00]: If you do that,
13:28 --> 13:32 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, Cole Young right up to spend the whole year in Triple A, which does him no good.
13:32 --> 13:34 [SPEAKER_01]: His value cannot increase in Triple A.
13:34 --> 13:36 [SPEAKER_01]: He's already showed he could hit a Triple A.
13:36 --> 13:46 [SPEAKER_01]: He's already shown he could hit at the Big League level, from July 1 to the middle of August of last year, Cole Young had a WRC plus in the 120s and he walked more than he struck out as a 21 year old.
13:46 --> 13:49 [SPEAKER_01]: That's that's proving that you could hit at the Big League level.
13:50 --> 13:57 [SPEAKER_01]: He needs to do it for a full season, but at least in a small sample against a variety of
13:57 --> 14:04 [SPEAKER_01]: Him hitting for a 130 to 140 WRC plus for five months into coma does him nothing.
14:04 --> 14:05 [SPEAKER_01]: It's like great.
14:05 --> 14:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Congratulations.
14:06 --> 14:07 [SPEAKER_01]: You hit in the PCL.
14:07 --> 14:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Everybody hits in the PCL.
14:10 --> 14:18 [SPEAKER_01]: That's why I don't see Anyway for this to work out to its maximum capacity for the Mariners and let's call young goes back to the Cubs.
14:19 --> 14:24 [SPEAKER_01]: Because like, like, Cull Young is a, he's a top 40 prospect in baseball any day viewed.
14:24 --> 14:32 [SPEAKER_01]: You're just essentially going to tank the value of a top 40 prospect of 22 years old for one potentially one year possibly more of Nico Horner.
14:33 --> 14:39 [SPEAKER_01]: So I do think if the Mariners made this trade, they would do their best to extend Nico though.
14:40 --> 14:43 [SPEAKER_01]: Like they're not trading and just letting him play for a year and then walk.
14:43 --> 14:46 [SPEAKER_01]: No, you trade for him and you'd stick an extension in front of them right away.
14:46 --> 14:49 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe five years five for.
14:49 --> 14:51 [SPEAKER_01]: 5 for 140 potentially.
14:51 --> 15:02 [SPEAKER_01]: I know I threw to you that he could be a $200 million player but let's say teams entering the lockout don't want to give out a 10-year deal so you give them a 5-year deal for 140.
15:03 --> 15:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, especially if these starters aren't going to get extended and guys like Kirby and Logan aren't exactly jumping at the bit to sign an extension, then yeah, you should have money to pay somebody like Nico Horner.
15:14 --> 15:16 [SPEAKER_00]: Who, by the way, is not represented by Scott Boris.
15:16 --> 15:20 [SPEAKER_00]: His agents, at least if you look on baseball references, apex baseball.
15:20 --> 15:26 [SPEAKER_00]: So, by all accounts, there should be some opportunity there to just extend the guy.
15:26 --> 15:30 [SPEAKER_00]: And I'll tell you, if you traded for and extended him,
15:31 --> 15:43 [SPEAKER_00]: and you're infield to the future for a very long time was calerally behind the plate Josh Naylor at first, Nico Horner at second, and then either it's short stop or third days long-term probably short stop you're going to have Cole Tamerson.
15:43 --> 15:46 [SPEAKER_00]: You got to feel pretty good about that with Julio Roaming Center Field.
15:47 --> 16:09 [SPEAKER_01]: That's a real core third base you figure out you could sign somebody or eventually You could oh my core oils a left field or now so They could figure out their base maybe it has been maybe been improved enough where he can be a one and a half to two When player based off of defense and batting average for example at third base like that's always possible the Mariners could trade for somebody else like
16:09 --> 16:14 [SPEAKER_01]: There are options there, but it's set you up really well, it makes you versatile, it makes you better defensively.
16:14 --> 16:26 [SPEAKER_01]: Like the increase in value they could have for having Colt Emerson at short and Nico Horner at second base, as opposed to what the Mariners got last year from their middle and field spots is drastically different.
16:26 --> 16:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
16:27 --> 16:33 [SPEAKER_00]: And to give this guy an extension at 28 years old, I guess he's entering his age 29 season.
16:34 --> 16:35 [SPEAKER_00]: But to get five years of them.
16:36 --> 16:38 [SPEAKER_00]: feels safe enough, right?
16:38 --> 16:57 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you would think the defense for at least half that contract, if not more will keep up at a pretty high level where even if he's not hitting like crazy, which again, isn't really his game should provide immense value in so many other places that he doesn't have to hit the ball out of the ballpark left and right to make that potential extension worth it.
16:57 --> 17:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, his out's about, listen to this for Nico Horner's career by out's about average.
17:02 --> 17:04 [SPEAKER_00]: He's been in the league since,
17:04 --> 17:15 [SPEAKER_00]: 2019, but since he really started playing full seasons, hisouts above average has never been below the hang on, 96th percentile.
17:16 --> 17:21 [SPEAKER_00]: That's his lowest year of defense, and it was one year during 2024.
17:21 --> 17:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Every other year besides that is in the 97th to 98th percentile of the league in defense.
17:27 --> 17:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Sprint Speed?
17:29 --> 17:32 [SPEAKER_00]: It's it's always high has not dropped off.
17:32 --> 17:33 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not quite at the same spot.
17:33 --> 17:36 [SPEAKER_00]: It was when he debuted, but again, 80th percentile roughly.
17:36 --> 17:39 [SPEAKER_01]: He was like, yeah, sorry.
17:39 --> 17:42 [SPEAKER_01]: I was going to say who's the last Mariners in field defender to have a mark that high.
17:43 --> 17:45 [SPEAKER_01]: J. P. in 2020.
17:46 --> 17:48 [SPEAKER_01]: Probably Evan White.
17:48 --> 17:49 [SPEAKER_01]: or Evan White, yeah.
17:50 --> 17:54 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I was the more up the non-first-based defense, but yeah, I'd say those two.
17:54 --> 17:59 [SPEAKER_01]: So Evan White in 2020, when he won the gold glove, or JP Crawford in 2020, when he also won a gold glove.
18:00 --> 18:03 [SPEAKER_00]: see what they ranked Evan White as that year by defect.
18:03 --> 18:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, out to about average 20, 20, 96%ile.
18:06 --> 18:14 [SPEAKER_01]: And then JP, I think JP's one good defense of year was in that, or at least by like, out to above average was in that short and season.
18:15 --> 18:22 [SPEAKER_01]: So in 2020, yeah, I mean, JP at 97th percentile field and run value and 98th percentile out to above average.
18:22 --> 18:22 [SPEAKER_01]: So,
18:22 --> 18:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that was pretty good.
18:23 --> 18:26 [SPEAKER_01]: And then in the full season, the next year, it, you know, kind of dropped off.
18:26 --> 18:27 [SPEAKER_01]: So that was that.
18:27 --> 18:27 [SPEAKER_01]: That was it.
18:27 --> 18:32 [SPEAKER_01]: It's been five years since the Mariners have had a defender of that quality of the middle one.
18:32 --> 18:33 [SPEAKER_01]: You could potentially have one here for six years.
18:34 --> 18:34 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
18:34 --> 18:41 [SPEAKER_01]: It might not be that good the whole time, but the first half of that contract would supplement the value for the last half.
18:41 --> 18:51 [SPEAKER_01]: And also that's your contention when that's when you, you would potentially keep all of Logan, George, Brian, Bryce all together at the same time.
18:51 --> 19:01 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, circling it while working in some of your young guys, eventually some of those guys walk, maybe Nico declines a little bit, the mayor has taken a bit of a step back, but for the next couple of years, it would set you up really well.
19:02 --> 19:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and his defense at no point of that contract should just fall off a cliff.
19:05 --> 19:15 [SPEAKER_00]: It might not always be a leap by the back end, but by the time he is, if you give him a five year extension 34, I don't know why he still can't play perfectly competent defense at the second base.
19:15 --> 19:17 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not like he's playing short.
19:18 --> 19:31 [SPEAKER_01]: And the Mariners have a few pictures who love pitching to contact and love throwing and love throwing a bunch of sinkers that helps them out a lot, as opposed to the opposite, where they're getting hurt by their infield defense.
19:31 --> 19:31 [SPEAKER_01]: Right.
19:32 --> 19:38 [SPEAKER_00]: Where if you have Josh Nailer, Nico Horner, Colt Emerson, all in that infield, does a lot for you.
19:39 --> 19:48 [SPEAKER_00]: And Ben Williams and two on the days that he factors in, that'd be a really good defense.
19:49 --> 19:51 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's get conversation on Nico Horner.
19:51 --> 19:53 [SPEAKER_01]: I would put that near the top of my list.
19:53 --> 20:06 [SPEAKER_01]: If he is actually available for the Mariners who off there and get, I honestly would like him over, could tell Marte, based off of everything the Mariners need to get better at, in regards to base running and defense.
20:06 --> 20:11 [SPEAKER_01]: But that's not my decision to make that's the Mariners decision to make, and the price will be a lot more affordable too.
20:11 --> 20:16 [SPEAKER_01]: You will not have to trade any one of your starters and you'd get a similar increase in value across the board.
20:16 --> 20:19 [SPEAKER_01]: Before we get to the mail bag loud,
20:19 --> 20:20 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, let's do that.
20:20 --> 20:22 [SPEAKER_00]: So, let's talk to you guys about our friends.
20:22 --> 20:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Over at Pagotch is probably 85.
20:23 --> 20:27 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you guys know, it's an awesome spot to hang out and watch a bunch of games.
20:27 --> 20:31 [SPEAKER_00]: I've no doubt that place is going to be filled up here on Thursday for the Seahawks game tonight.
20:31 --> 20:32 [SPEAKER_00]: It's a game of the year.
20:32 --> 20:36 [SPEAKER_00]: There's people that pack the place and a bunch of passionate sports fans.
20:36 --> 20:38 [SPEAKER_00]: So again, you'd be right with your people hanging out over there.
20:38 --> 20:40 [SPEAKER_00]: There's also great food over there.
20:40 --> 20:43 [SPEAKER_00]: and drinks that are three and four bucks during happy hour.
20:43 --> 20:48 [SPEAKER_00]: If you go during happy hour, which is Monday through Friday from 2 to 6 PM, drinks with three and four bucks.
20:48 --> 20:49 [SPEAKER_00]: Those are great deals, you guys.
20:49 --> 20:53 [SPEAKER_00]: So all of that is over at Pagotch's Pub 85 in Kirkland.
20:53 --> 20:56 [SPEAKER_01]: And remember, do you guys before we get into the smell bag?
20:56 --> 21:01 [SPEAKER_01]: If you want priority for mailbag questions, there is really one place to go.
21:01 --> 21:04 [SPEAKER_01]: That's our Patreon, patreon.com slash marine layer pod.
21:04 --> 21:10 [SPEAKER_01]: If you sign up for our Patreon, there are a ton of awesome perks alongside
21:10 --> 21:30 [SPEAKER_01]: If you have a question, you want answered every single week here on the podcast, you sign up for priority and you get your questions moved right to the front of the line and they will get answered on the episodes every single week alongside of that, you get ad free episodes and you get a chance to hop on a video call with Lou and I every single month to talk mariners at your own personal mail bag episode.
21:30 --> 21:33 [SPEAKER_01]: You can just throw questions at us and we'll answer all your questions.
21:33 --> 21:37 [SPEAKER_01]: The place to do that is patreon.com slash marine layer pod.
21:38 --> 21:42 [SPEAKER_01]: First question, up on the mail bag, this comes from Zander.
21:42 --> 21:52 [SPEAKER_01]: Zander's question is, in spirit of the holidays, big Christmas, John Kenzie Noel has been de-effed by the Guardians, any interest for a minor league deal, or something along those lines.
21:55 --> 21:56 [SPEAKER_00]: He is fun.
21:56 --> 21:59 [SPEAKER_00]: And he hit that electric comb rod back in the postseason.
22:00 --> 22:05 [SPEAKER_00]: Unfortunately, when you look at John Kenzie Noel's profile,
22:06 --> 22:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not exactly sure what jumps out.
22:08 --> 22:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Again, if you want to take the flyer on a minor league deal, that would work.
22:12 --> 22:25 [SPEAKER_00]: But I'll tell a little story in 2022 when I spent one year broadcasting minor league baseball, I was with the high A team for the reds, the Dayton Dragons, they were in the same league with the Lake County captains, which is the Guardian's high A affiliate.
22:25 --> 22:29 [SPEAKER_00]: So I got to see John Kenzinole a few times while before I ever made the big leagues.
22:29 --> 22:33 [SPEAKER_00]: And I said to myself, I mean, this guy has insane power, insane.
22:33 --> 22:34 [SPEAKER_00]: but I'm not really sure what L.C.
22:35 --> 22:35 [SPEAKER_00]: does.
22:35 --> 22:40 [SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of holes in the swing and there's not a ton of value out there outside of his pop.
22:40 --> 22:45 [SPEAKER_00]: If you look at what he did last year, he had a negative one and a half win season.
22:46 --> 22:55 [SPEAKER_00]: He had a 31 OPS plus, so that's almost more than, you know, just under 70% below league average, he doesn't play defense.
22:56 --> 23:04 [SPEAKER_00]: He struck out 34% of the time and he walked less than 3% of the time, like, oh, not a lot of value.
23:05 --> 23:06 [SPEAKER_01]: What are you getting if you sign him?
23:08 --> 23:10 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if you put him in triple A, that's fine with me.
23:10 --> 23:11 [SPEAKER_00]: You take the flyer.
23:11 --> 23:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, because in his rookie year, he was pretty good.
23:14 --> 23:16 [SPEAKER_00]: But, and he's still young.
23:16 --> 23:17 [SPEAKER_00]: He's only going to be 24 years old.
23:18 --> 23:24 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think the only way you can take the flyer is if you're saying, OK, well, we'll put him in the liners.
23:24 --> 23:25 [SPEAKER_01]: he's not a great athlete either.
23:25 --> 23:30 [SPEAKER_01]: There's not many, there's not many areas he draws value from, unfortunately.
23:31 --> 23:33 [SPEAKER_01]: So, I'm good.
23:33 --> 23:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like he could stick him in AAA, but I have no interest in putting him anywhere near the Big League roster, because unless you just want to only ride the vibes of his nickname, which is it's an 80 grade nickname, but the rest of the profile is closer to 30 grade.
23:48 --> 23:54 [SPEAKER_01]: It's just, there's nothing positive for someone who's
23:56 --> 23:58 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, how's the tough go of it for him?
23:59 --> 23:59 [SPEAKER_00]: Tough go.
24:01 --> 24:03 [SPEAKER_01]: Next question comes from Michael on Patreon.
24:03 --> 24:11 [SPEAKER_01]: And Michael's question is, with all of these conversations around the Mariners need a third baseman, what do we think happens to Ben Williamson?
24:11 --> 24:14 [SPEAKER_01]: Are they going to carve out a role form on the Big League roster?
24:14 --> 24:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Are they going to trade him?
24:15 --> 24:16 [SPEAKER_01]: Or are they going to put him in AAA?
24:18 --> 24:25 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, if cold Emerson doesn't make the team out of camp, then Williamson's probably going to be the starting third baseman unless they trade for somebody.
24:26 --> 24:38 [SPEAKER_00]: So that would be a short-term solution, likely, unless he really proves that some of those swing changes he made into come last year real, and he comes out guns blazing and proves that he can really hit a average to above average level in the big leagues.
24:38 --> 24:47 [SPEAKER_00]: If he doesn't do that, and the profile more stays put with what people have projected him as, throughout his time in the minors, and when he was drafted,
24:47 --> 24:49 [SPEAKER_00]: I just think he's probably a bench bat.
24:49 --> 24:51 [SPEAKER_00]: He's got a roll on a big league team.
24:51 --> 24:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Don't get me wrong because he's really really good defenders.
24:54 --> 25:09 [SPEAKER_00]: We've always talked about he can run a little bit and if you had to play on days against lefties you could but again unless you see some significant changes from them early on it feels like he's more of a bench bat.
25:09 --> 25:12 [SPEAKER_01]: And he's not really a trade piece either if he was going to be in a trade.
25:12 --> 25:20 [SPEAKER_01]: He would be as a throw in, he's not a big league or on every major league team on four.
25:20 --> 25:32 [SPEAKER_01]: Until he has some tangible data that is bad as different than what he's team saw early on and is a big league career earlier in 2025.
25:32 --> 25:40 [SPEAKER_01]: He's strictly data did look better than his big league data when he went back down and he was hitting the ball harder He had some better quality of contact.
25:40 --> 25:47 [SPEAKER_01]: He walked way more is one of his big issues at the big league levels He didn't walk at all walk 10% of the time down into coma
25:47 --> 25:50 [SPEAKER_01]: strikeout rate went down his own contact rate was really high.
25:50 --> 25:51 [SPEAKER_01]: Those are all very good things.
25:52 --> 25:54 [SPEAKER_01]: It's just got to show we can actually do it at the big league level.
25:55 --> 25:58 [SPEAKER_01]: And there's a chance this year he won't even get that opportunity.
25:58 --> 26:05 [SPEAKER_01]: So maybe he just rides it out in AAA until a team until the Mariners throw him into a trade.
26:05 --> 26:07 [SPEAKER_01]: If Colt Emerson makes his roster an opening day.
26:07 --> 26:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Because it sounds like there's going to be a chance.
26:09 --> 26:14 [SPEAKER_01]: But on a clip Thursday morning, Brian Davis talking about Colt Emerson and how different he is.
26:14 --> 26:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Like the more I was editing that clip and listening to the divvish talk about over and over and over again, sounds like there's a pretty decent chance Cole Emerson just breaks camp with the team.
26:24 --> 26:27 [SPEAKER_01]: So that leaves Cole Emerson kind of out to dry.
26:28 --> 26:30 [SPEAKER_01]: And again with Ben Williams and out to dry.
26:30 --> 26:34 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, again unless you just keep Ben as a as a bench player, which would make some sense.
26:35 --> 26:39 [SPEAKER_01]: But he's got a show we can play somewhere else besides third right.
26:39 --> 26:43 [SPEAKER_00]: He'll probably have to start learning some second base a little bit maybe you could play out and left field a bit too.
26:43 --> 26:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Who knows And with cold you're right now that these PPI picks are very real and have some incentive
26:51 --> 27:18 [SPEAKER_00]: gonna have every reason if they feel like he's ready to call him up on opening day and put him on the big league roster for those who don't know those PPI picks I believe they stand for prospect promotion incentive picks and what it does is it's a way to help not manipulate service time while also rewarding big league clubs for promoting your prospects early because if you have a team or if you have a player on your team when rookie of the year you essentially get an extra first round draft pick.
27:18 --> 27:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Julio Rodriguez winning rookie the year landed the Mariners Johnny Farmello that's where that extra draft pick came from in twenty three because they took Colt Emerson with the first pick and then their first pick and that round and then with their second first round and that round they took Johnny and that was because Julio won rookie the year there was even a video the Mariners front office once they made the pick and a video once the draft selection was made they're all high five and they go thank you Julio thank you Julio for for getting them for Melo.
27:47 --> 27:50 [SPEAKER_00]: There's real incentive now for calling these guys up early if they think cults ready.
27:51 --> 27:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I may play a factor.
27:52 --> 27:53 [SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see.
27:54 --> 27:59 [SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, it is all going to center around Ben's bat and proving.
27:59 --> 28:02 [SPEAKER_01]: So that's just what we're going to have to wait and find out.
28:03 --> 28:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Next question for the male bag comes from Nick on Patreon.
28:06 --> 28:15 [SPEAKER_01]: And next question is, how much of this information are we hearing about the mayor's intention to upgrade just posturing any references.
28:15 --> 28:20 [SPEAKER_01]: They're in their interest at second base and third base.
28:20 --> 28:22 [SPEAKER_01]: to try and motivate their prospects.
28:23 --> 28:24 [SPEAKER_00]: No, I don't think so.
28:24 --> 28:29 [SPEAKER_00]: This isn't like Scott Boris trying to float Alex pregnant out to the mariner's, like Nick also asks them the question.
28:30 --> 28:31 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not like that.
28:31 --> 28:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's pretty clear they need at least one more bat.
28:34 --> 28:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I've argued they need two more.
28:35 --> 28:41 [SPEAKER_00]: And usually, again, usually Jerry and Justin are pretty transparent.
28:41 --> 28:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Now obviously when Jerry's transparent at times over his 10-year in Seattle, that is bit him in the rear end.
28:47 --> 28:52 [SPEAKER_00]: But usually they're pretty transparent out what they want to do, and then they try and go and do it.
28:53 --> 28:56 [SPEAKER_00]: When they say they need an extra bat, I don't think it's posturing.
28:56 --> 29:05 [SPEAKER_00]: I think they are actively looking for another proven, effective impact that to try and trade for, or probably trade for.
29:05 --> 29:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Prospects aren't proven enough to posture.
29:08 --> 29:09 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think.
29:09 --> 29:20 [SPEAKER_01]: Because that means you are actively banking, you are actively communicating things to try and sway actions of a prospect.
29:20 --> 29:25 [SPEAKER_01]: Teams are never going to do that for any prospect in baseball, not even like Roman Anthony, for example.
29:25 --> 29:31 [SPEAKER_01]: The red socks are not going to like posture to motivate him because he, until he proves it at the big league level, is a big unknown.
29:32 --> 29:35 [SPEAKER_01]: Meanwhile, things like Alex Braggman, like Alex Braggman is proven.
29:35 --> 29:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Therefore, Scott Boris can posture teams for him.
29:38 --> 29:42 [SPEAKER_01]: And teams will, then there will a little bit to go get him.
29:42 --> 29:45 [SPEAKER_01]: But they were never going to do that for prospects.
29:45 --> 29:49 [SPEAKER_01]: Because there's just not enough proven value there for them for that to be worth it for them.
29:49 --> 29:51 [SPEAKER_01]: It's a fun idea, but yeah, I don't see it.
29:53 --> 29:53 [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's right.
29:54 --> 29:55 [SPEAKER_00]: I just...
29:56 --> 30:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, again, like I love the idea of the prospects being motivated, and I think cold Emerson battling with Ben Williams and in camp will motivate them to try and win the job, but I don't think their motivation is going to come from the idea of dangling out reports about trying to trade for Big League talent.
30:12 --> 30:14 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I think they actually want those guys.
30:15 --> 30:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Before we get to our next mail bad question, I want to remind people because we activated this yesterday on the make sure people have a chance to get in on it before it expires.
30:23 --> 30:27 [SPEAKER_01]: We have a merch sale going on for all of our Marine Lair pod cast merch.
30:28 --> 30:32 [SPEAKER_01]: If you go to our website, Marine Lair pod.com slash merch.
30:32 --> 30:57 [SPEAKER_01]: you can go to checkout enter the code marine layer capital m capital l for the two words you'll get 20% off marine layer pod merch from the next week right is next week next week this is a great opportunity it's it's too late to get it for christmas yes we get it too late to get it for christmas but if you have some end of year shopping if you think you're going to get some cash for christmas you're going to get a gift card
30:57 --> 30:59 [SPEAKER_01]: This would be a pretty good way to spend it.
30:59 --> 31:01 [SPEAKER_01]: Go out there and get yourself some Marine Lairpot merch.
31:01 --> 31:07 [SPEAKER_01]: We're also looking to add some new things to the store if you already have your merch, and you want a different piece of gear.
31:08 --> 31:10 [SPEAKER_01]: Like, we're in the process of adding that, too.
31:10 --> 31:15 [SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, we're gonna try and ram some stuff up as the new year rolls around.
31:16 --> 31:21 [SPEAKER_00]: Both with some new apparel, like, trying to add things that aren't just huddies and shirts and hats.
31:21 --> 31:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, we have, we have,
31:23 --> 31:47 [SPEAKER_00]: things in the store don't get us wrong but we want to add some different apparel that people can wear and we're also going to try and put in some new designs over the coming weeks when the new year starts and try to I can just ramp up the merch shop a little bit just get people even more options so we are working on that for anybody curious and for anybody interested again 20% off through Christmas over to buy a mirroring layer pot merch so go get in on it code marine layer
31:47 --> 31:48 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
31:48 --> 31:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Next question is from Bryson on Patreon.
31:50 --> 31:57 [SPEAKER_01]: Bryson's question is, how would you feel about acquiring David Frye from the Guardians in a deal surrounding Dom Kinzoom?
31:59 --> 32:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I get the idea because he's talking about an idea of finding a right-handed bat to try and balance out the roster a little bit, especially if you go acquire somebody like Donovan.
32:09 --> 32:16 [SPEAKER_00]: But David Fry, it's a similar story to John Kenzie Noel, not the same profile, but David Fry had a really tough year last year.
32:16 --> 32:17 [SPEAKER_00]: He did not play well.
32:17 --> 32:20 [SPEAKER_00]: He certainly didn't have the bat that he had the year before.
32:21 --> 32:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that is your solution for 2026 in terms of a right-handed bat, and I don't think it would also involve Dom Canzone, who, again, still has more to prove, but that a pretty good year for the time he was in the big leagues.
32:34 --> 32:39 [SPEAKER_01]: I actually don't hate the idea because a big reason for David Fry's year last year is he was hurt.
32:39 --> 32:45 [SPEAKER_01]: He had an elbow injury, which meant he couldn't play the field, and he broke his nose.
32:46 --> 33:00 [SPEAKER_01]: But the year before he played catcher first right left and third base, while having a 179 WRC plus against lefties, but he would deflash in the pan, maybe he does not do that again.
33:00 --> 33:16 [SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't repeat that, but he could definitely be better than he was in 2025 when he was hurt and didn't have the same juice.
33:17 --> 33:46 [SPEAKER_00]: it balances out your roster a little bit again it gives you somebody with some versatility and it doesn't give you two different left handed hitting out filters that don't hit lefties because that's what canzone and Rayleigh are right now but I don't know man I know David Fry was hurt last year and maybe that's what it was and maybe that's why it didn't have a good year and I also understand David Fry has serious club control because he's not a free agent till 2030 I don't know if I hate the idea I'm not I'm not totally shooting
33:47 --> 34:15 [SPEAKER_01]: The idea behind it think of her me so gives you some versatility gives you the right handed bat Canzone is redundant on the roster you have two versions of Dom canzone you have Luke Rayleigh and you have Dom One is younger has more control and You could potentially sell higher on him based off the sample you just had for two months at the end of the regular season Maybe a backfires maybe that is the real Dom canzone and you just traded away a Potential borderline all star corner outfielder
34:16 --> 34:27 [SPEAKER_01]: But there's also a chance that Dom Kinzoon more regress his back to what he was for the first big chunk of his Mariners career as opposed to those final two months of the season, right?
34:28 --> 34:29 [SPEAKER_01]: This kind of hedges against that.
34:29 --> 34:35 [SPEAKER_01]: And Luke Rayleigh has had more long-term proven success in the big leagues if you want that left-handed corner outfield bat.
34:35 --> 34:38 [SPEAKER_01]: He also runs a little bit better than Kinzoon as well.
34:38 --> 34:40 [SPEAKER_01]: It kind of unclogged your roster.
34:41 --> 34:42 [SPEAKER_01]: That's what Bryce was saying in this question, too.
34:42 --> 34:51 [SPEAKER_01]: He just feels like can zone clogs up your roster with his profile and David Fry on locks it a little bit more.
34:51 --> 35:02 [SPEAKER_00]: Again, it's certainly not a terrible idea and it is first year in the big leagues back in 23 small sample but had a solid enough year, too, in a 734 OPS.
35:03 --> 35:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm just a little hesitant about how much he struggled last year.
35:09 --> 35:10 [SPEAKER_00]: And again, you'd be selling fans on that.
35:11 --> 35:16 [SPEAKER_00]: You'd have to tell your fanbase after the year-dom had where I understand they're still concerned.
35:16 --> 35:22 [SPEAKER_00]: You're trading him away for somebody that had a 61 OPS plus last year.
35:23 --> 35:33 [SPEAKER_01]: Next question comes from Adrian Martinez on X and the question is, what the recent news of Murcomi being capable of hitting MLB level pitching.
35:33 --> 35:41 [SPEAKER_01]: Why shouldn't the Mariners put him at third base or DH, especially with his clock ticking out as of time of recording?
35:41 --> 35:42 [SPEAKER_01]: He's got four days to sign.
35:45 --> 35:47 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think the Mariners can afford to take the flyer on this.
35:47 --> 35:51 [SPEAKER_00]: We've talked about him and even if it's for a short deal,
35:53 --> 35:55 [SPEAKER_00]: You're two left hand and heavy already.
35:56 --> 35:58 [SPEAKER_00]: And especially you're two left hand and heavy with guys that strike out.
35:59 --> 36:04 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think you can afford to be letting Murkami sit on this roster and play DH on a regular basis.
36:05 --> 36:06 [SPEAKER_00]: And he definitely cannot play the field.
36:07 --> 36:10 [SPEAKER_00]: So I just don't, I mean, he at least can't play third base.
36:10 --> 36:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you play first, but you already have a first baseman for the next half decade.
36:13 --> 36:15 [SPEAKER_00]: So I don't know where he fits in here.
36:15 --> 36:16 [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's going to have to be somewhere else.
36:17 --> 36:19 [SPEAKER_00]: And we'll see if he signs before his clock runs out.
36:19 --> 36:22 [SPEAKER_00]: There is like no rumors about him signing anywhere.
36:22 --> 36:34 [SPEAKER_01]: At this point, if the league doesn't believe in him enough, he could just go back to Japan, improve on some things, or try to improve on some things at least, and then get reposted.
36:34 --> 36:41 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's say he brings his strikeout rate back down, and he improves his defense.
36:41 --> 36:46 [SPEAKER_01]: then comes back over next year and gets posted again, then he could get more so the contract he's looking for.
36:46 --> 36:52 [SPEAKER_01]: But for the Mariners, unless it's like a one year $5 million deal, it just doesn't seem like they're going to do it.
36:52 --> 36:54 [SPEAKER_01]: They wouldn't, I don't even think they play them at thirks.
36:54 --> 36:56 [SPEAKER_01]: He's not really a third baseman, no.
36:56 --> 37:04 [SPEAKER_01]: And there's nothing, there's nothing proven, there's no data that backs up that he's going to hit consistently in the big leagues right this second.
37:04 --> 37:06 [SPEAKER_01]: He could be an outlier.
37:06 --> 37:22 [SPEAKER_01]: I can't remember we read this on Wednesday's podcast or Monday's podcast, but you know, Sarah's went out there and he produced a chart of everyone with the same inzone contact rate as Murkami had in the NPB that had it at the big league level.
37:23 --> 37:28 [SPEAKER_01]: And like the best case outcome is Luke Rayleigh out of all those hitters.
37:28 --> 37:36 [SPEAKER_01]: Like, if Luke is Luke Rayleigh worth signing a $15 million deal for no defense?
37:36 --> 37:37 [SPEAKER_00]: No.
37:37 --> 37:42 [SPEAKER_00]: And the other guys on that list are all the guys across the league that strike out a ton.
37:42 --> 37:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Joey Gallo, JD Davis, Christopher Morell, it's not the names you want to be in a pool with.
37:48 --> 37:56 [SPEAKER_00]: So if you're the Mariners and you're interested in that sort of thing, honestly of the two, I think Kazuma Okamoto makes a lot more sense of Murakami would.
37:56 --> 38:01 [SPEAKER_00]: He'll cost less, probably, because Murakami's looking for a big deal.
38:02 --> 38:07 [SPEAKER_00]: He'll cost less, he's right-handed, and he's probably got a better chance to play some games at third base of Murakami does.
38:09 --> 38:12 [SPEAKER_01]: Next question comes from a question on YouTube.
38:13 --> 38:19 [SPEAKER_01]: When the question is, would Catel Marta be the Mariners' best-header acquired via trade and team history?
38:21 --> 38:22 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it'd be pretty close.
38:23 --> 38:28 [SPEAKER_00]: He's in a category with people like Josh Nailer, Randy Rosarina.
38:28 --> 38:34 [SPEAKER_00]: You could go back to somebody like J-Buner, but at the time J-Buner was so unproven.
38:34 --> 39:02 [SPEAKER_01]: you just didn't know again it's like the side belt reference what the hell if you trade j but are for but at the time nobody knew nobody knew what he could be so in terms of a proven that feels like he'd be the best one uh i'd throw jino in there too but jino doesn't have the as much of a track record either and he was a little bit more jack on high and he had the 49 home or season but man in terms of consistency and like top three and beat or top
39:03 --> 39:10 [SPEAKER_00]: Like that, it could tell, let me, let me throw one more name in there, another former down of that.
39:10 --> 39:15 [SPEAKER_00]: Gene, Cigura, when the Mariners traded for him, he led the league and hits that year.
39:16 --> 39:20 [SPEAKER_01]: But he wasn't one of the 10 best hitters in baseball.
39:20 --> 39:23 [SPEAKER_00]: He was really good the year they traded for me.
39:23 --> 39:27 [SPEAKER_00]: At 200 hits, he finished 13th and MVP voting that year.
39:28 --> 39:30 [SPEAKER_01]: But could tell, it could tell it's higher than that.
39:31 --> 39:33 [SPEAKER_01]: and better on a rate basis, too.
39:34 --> 39:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Jean at an 867 OPS out year and a 122 OPS plus Kattels obviously sit in WRC plus OPS plus wise in the 140s 150s.
39:43 --> 39:44 [SPEAKER_00]: So yes, it's better.
39:45 --> 39:46 [SPEAKER_00]: I just put Jean in that list, too.
39:47 --> 39:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Honestly, probably above somebody like Nailer, or even like Randy, because again, like those guys didn't lead the league and hits.
39:53 --> 39:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Jean was good when they traded for him.
39:55 --> 40:21 [SPEAKER_01]: Ketel would be I think after looking at this there is a pretty easy case to make that he would be based off of just Wary'd finish like again JB or after the fact is really good and a few nine hundred OPS seasons But jbuner peaked in his career at a one thirty two OPS plus Ketel sitting 20 points beyond that Yeah, so that's crazy to say, but it's true
40:22 --> 40:31 [SPEAKER_01]: final question here on the mailbag comes from MLB Salmon on YouTube and the question is the angels have made a few off-season moves.
40:32 --> 40:37 [SPEAKER_01]: Some look like low-risk high-reward to improve.
40:38 --> 40:40 [SPEAKER_01]: How does the AL West look to you guys right now?
40:42 --> 40:42 [SPEAKER_01]: Week!
40:43 --> 40:44 [SPEAKER_00]: does not look strong.
40:45 --> 41:03 [SPEAKER_00]: If you want to go team by team, anybody who still picks the angels in the year of 2026 to be competitive, that's like all of these NFL projection people that pick the cardinals every year to be frisky and flashy and good because they're Kyler and in some years they're a deandry hopkins, they have Marvin Harrison on the outside.
41:04 --> 41:06 [SPEAKER_00]: And I always look at them and say, do you people never learn?
41:07 --> 41:09 [SPEAKER_00]: The Cardinals are never good.
41:09 --> 41:10 [SPEAKER_00]: They're so dysfunctional.
41:11 --> 41:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Gannon's not a good coach.
41:12 --> 41:16 [SPEAKER_00]: Kylerine in a quarterback is now been bench forever in Arizona, obviously.
41:16 --> 41:18 [SPEAKER_00]: It's the same thing with the angels.
41:18 --> 41:20 [SPEAKER_00]: You can flash any names you want in front of people.
41:21 --> 41:25 [SPEAKER_00]: There's just never going to be good until you believe it and see it right in front of your eyes.
41:25 --> 41:27 [SPEAKER_00]: They had show me and Mike Trout and couldn't make the playoffs.
41:28 --> 41:31 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, the Rangers, the Rangers seemed painfully average again.
41:31 --> 41:37 [SPEAKER_01]: They have come out and said they're actively shedding salary, which their moves this year have reflected that.
41:38 --> 41:43 [SPEAKER_01]: And if you guys have, like, forgotten, because they won a World Series in 2023.
41:43 --> 41:46 [SPEAKER_01]: They had that great year in 23.
41:46 --> 41:53 [SPEAKER_01]: The rest of the last decade, the Rangers have been among the worst teams in baseball, mediocre to bad.
41:54 --> 41:56 [SPEAKER_01]: Are you going to pull a Craig Carton and say they were cheating?
41:58 --> 42:04 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm just saying it's like mediocre bad, bad, bad, bad, bad world series.
42:04 --> 42:08 [SPEAKER_01]: mediocre mediocre and to be fair with the same players.
42:09 --> 42:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I was gonna say in that year Everybody and I mean everybody on that team just let the world on fire including guys Had no business doing so as Zekeel Duranley Odie Tavarez Josh Smith Travis Jane Caleski Everybody so yeah, I don't think the ranges are gonna be very good and they're an aging roster on top of that So that's those two those two teams probably finish in fourth and fifth place
42:35 --> 42:37 [SPEAKER_00]: The Astros will be competitive.
42:37 --> 42:48 [SPEAKER_00]: They're not going to fall off a cliff, but when you lose Frember, and they already missed the playoffs last year, I don't really know what that team's gonna look like.
42:49 --> 42:54 [SPEAKER_00]: I think they'll be, again, amid the high 80s win team, and they'll be competitive, but they're not going to be a world leader.
42:55 --> 43:01 [SPEAKER_01]: And then we have the A's who have, you can argue the most talented roster,
43:02 --> 43:06 [SPEAKER_01]: outside the Marylanders of any team in the American League West, their problem is the only pitching.
43:06 --> 43:13 [SPEAKER_01]: So how are they going to get to win enough games with that offense if they cannot pitch and their ballpark does them no favors either?
43:14 --> 43:22 [SPEAKER_01]: That, I mean, that kind of leads me to believe right now that the Marylanders are the American League West favorites without even making another move at this second.
43:24 --> 43:32 [SPEAKER_00]: It's crazy to say, thinking about where they were just a couple short years ago, but you can say with some real confidence, the A's have the best offense in the ALS, right?
43:33 --> 43:35 [SPEAKER_00]: They might have wanted the best offenses in baseball.
43:36 --> 43:38 [SPEAKER_00]: It's a loaded lineup.
43:38 --> 43:38 [SPEAKER_00]: It really is.
43:38 --> 43:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Jacob Wilson, Kurt's, Rucker, it's going to be a popular, yeah, yeah, a bunch of them.
43:47 --> 43:49 [SPEAKER_00]: But they can't pitch, and that's going to hold them back.
43:50 --> 43:52 [SPEAKER_00]: The Astros are gonna be the team that you fight with.
43:52 --> 44:02 [SPEAKER_00]: Because again, they still trade a back for Coreia, and they still have out two of a, and a big factor that you probably have to consider in 26 is you're gonna have Yord on back.
44:03 --> 44:07 [SPEAKER_00]: They essentially didn't have one of the five best hitters in baseball pretty much all year.
44:07 --> 44:15 [SPEAKER_00]: That makes a big difference, but you're gonna, again, you're gonna lose Framber and behind Hunter Brown, you just don't have much in that rotation at this point.
44:16 --> 44:19 [SPEAKER_01]: But how healthy is Yord on gonna be?
44:19 --> 44:29 [SPEAKER_01]: This has been the norm for the last couple of years that your don't just cannot stay healthy and when you have a body that big and your legs are already given out on you how productive is a interview.
44:30 --> 44:30 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we'll see.
44:32 --> 44:35 [SPEAKER_00]: But like if you look across their infield, it's still a real infield.
44:35 --> 44:37 [SPEAKER_00]: You've got parades that's probably going to play first.
44:37 --> 44:38 [SPEAKER_00]: You're going to create third.
44:38 --> 44:39 [SPEAKER_00]: You're going to have Jeremy Payney has short.
44:40 --> 44:45 [SPEAKER_00]: I guess I'll too they'll play left and maybe slide back to second base of your don't healthy.
44:46 --> 44:51 [SPEAKER_00]: they still have a talented team, you can't push them aside, but they're not gonna be the teams that they've been in years past.
44:52 --> 44:53 [SPEAKER_01]: No.
44:53 --> 44:55 [SPEAKER_01]: The Mariners get to like 90, 91 wins.
44:55 --> 44:56 [SPEAKER_01]: This is their division.
44:56 --> 45:10 [SPEAKER_01]: But we want them to get higher than that because it's not just the American like Western playing, they need to be at the blue jays, they need to be at the red socks, they need to be at the Yankees, they need to beat the rays, they need to beat the Orioles, they need to beat the guardians, they need to beat the tigers, right?
45:10 --> 45:11 [SPEAKER_01]: These are all teams not in your division.
45:12 --> 45:15 [SPEAKER_00]: Right, I mean, again, feels like the red socks,
45:15 --> 45:18 [SPEAKER_00]: get a one-way or another shape up for a big move.
45:18 --> 45:23 [SPEAKER_00]: It would be hard to imagine the Orioles having another bad year.
45:23 --> 45:27 [SPEAKER_00]: I know they still don't pitch, but it might be the best offense in the American League at this point with that lineup.
45:28 --> 45:30 [SPEAKER_00]: Honestly, you want to throw one more team in there?
45:30 --> 45:33 [SPEAKER_00]: I feel like the Royals have a chance to be pretty good.
45:34 --> 45:36 [SPEAKER_00]: Especially after the trade, they just pulled off where they get Isaac Collins.
45:37 --> 45:38 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a pretty good team.
45:39 --> 45:39 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, bit better.
45:39 --> 45:45 [SPEAKER_01]: I still think they're lacking bats.
45:46 --> 45:58 [SPEAKER_00]: probably, but it, you got Bobby, you got Pasquino, now you have eyes of Collins, you have Michael Garcia, you've got, that Carter Jensen kid, Merrow Good, he was when the Mariners played him and he's going to be a roast good.
45:59 --> 46:05 [SPEAKER_01]: And they have Jack Caggs too who put a blow torch to the miners, but was really bad in the majors.
46:06 --> 46:07 [SPEAKER_01]: It's possible.
46:07 --> 46:08 [SPEAKER_01]: It's possible they could be better.
46:08 --> 46:12 [SPEAKER_01]: Their depth is not quite as good and it's not as proven either.
46:13 --> 46:14 [SPEAKER_00]: But that's central.
46:15 --> 46:15 [SPEAKER_00]: week division.
46:15 --> 46:17 [SPEAKER_00]: So anyways, wouldn't have thing.
46:17 --> 46:17 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
46:17 --> 46:20 [SPEAKER_00]: So there's a real world they could win central.
46:21 --> 46:25 [SPEAKER_01]: And when push comes to shove, we know they won't spend the upgrade or spend a trade at the deadline.
46:25 --> 46:27 [SPEAKER_01]: So Mariners have that going too.
46:27 --> 46:30 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, and the Mariners also suck at playing in Kansas City.
46:30 --> 46:32 [SPEAKER_00]: So I would not like to play a playoff series there.
46:32 --> 46:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's put it like that.
46:33 --> 46:36 [SPEAKER_00]: No, but I wouldn't worry about playing a playoff series there.
46:37 --> 46:42 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and let's, again, unless they win the central and they get to host some playoff games.
46:43 --> 46:45 [SPEAKER_00]: Have a better record than them, and you won't have to play.
46:45 --> 46:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Also, all the more reason they need to keep adding.
46:48 --> 46:53 [SPEAKER_00]: Because, by the way, Dan's and Borsky just put out their early zips projections.
46:54 --> 47:02 [SPEAKER_00]: They don't have all the win totals, but he thinks the Mariners are about a 90-win team without doing anything else right now, which,
47:02 --> 47:04 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if I totally see it that way.
47:04 --> 47:09 [SPEAKER_00]: I still think they need a couple more baths and they need a leverage bullpen arm, but they're going to be a good team.
47:10 --> 47:15 [SPEAKER_00]: And you know that with a couple more moves, they should be favored to win that AOS.
47:15 --> 47:22 [SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of impact a healthy starting rotation can have this year without, again, without upgrading the offense anymore.
47:23 --> 47:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Mm-hmm.
47:23 --> 47:24 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no doubt.
47:25 --> 47:27 [SPEAKER_00]: All right, that's a good set of mailback questions.
47:27 --> 47:28 [SPEAKER_00]: As always, you guys always bring it.
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47:36 --> 47:37 [SPEAKER_00]: It's really fun.
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47:39 --> 47:41 [SPEAKER_00]: You get to send in your mailback question.
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47:48 --> 47:48 [SPEAKER_00]: So
47:48 --> 47:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Shout out to all of you guys.
47:50 --> 47:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Always good stuff.
47:51 --> 47:55 [SPEAKER_00]: And with that, that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Lair podcast.
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48:47 --> 48:51 [SPEAKER_00]: That's TJ, I'm Lyle, as always we thank you guys for tuning in and talk to you soon.