Episode 401: The Same Problems Continue To Pop Up In Another Mariners Series Loss

[00:00:00] Welcome to Episode 401 of the Marine Layer Podcast. The Mariners lose 2-3 in Chicago, react to all the storylines out of the series, and a couple of decisions the Mariners have upcoming. A reminder to you guys before we start this podcast, make sure to go download these episodes if you're listening. Go rate and review 5 stars on all the audio platforms. If you're on YouTube, go like, comment, and make sure to hit that subscribe button on YouTube. You can also find us at our website, marinelayerpod.com. You'll find all of our merch there. Patreon's there. You can find all of our episodes there.

[00:00:29] That's over at marinelayerpod.com. And then follow us across social media everywhere. We're posting content every day at Marine Layer Pod. Let's get it rolling.

[00:00:52] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording here on Sunday evening, May 10th. Oh, you want me to start and give you the words for you to open the show? Sure. What a fucking horse shit series. And we didn't even get to see Kelnick Homer. That is the biggest sigh of the weekend. That right there.

[00:01:18] At the very least, if the Mariners were going to lose a series, it's because in one of the games, Jared Kelnick hit a home run. But he didn't even do that. And people were in the comments going to be like, yeah, guys, because Jared Kelnick sucks at baseball. Doesn't matter. If the Chicago White Sox were going to win the series, at the very least, we could have got some comedic relief with him hitting a home run. But no, we didn't even get that. Instead, we just got bad baseball for the final two games of the series. That's it. Well, the good news is Kelnick's going to have three more chances in about a week to Homer against the Mariners.

[00:01:47] And he's going to get to do it in T-Mobile Park. Maybe that's even better. Hmm. What a shit series. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Across the board. That was a bad one. Especially today. I mean, on Saturday, they just didn't really play that well. Castillo was not good again. We'll talk about him. Yeah, he was not good. The offense was not good. And the White Sox were just better. Great. But, like, Sunday just pissed me off. Sunday was bad.

[00:02:14] I mean, not only did the Mariners' offense go silent into the good night. Like, that's it. Like, they didn't score any runs. But then in some very key spots, the Mariners just weren't there. Like, these little, like, little things that we keep saying the Mariners need to give themselves an edge in something to help themselves win. Like, Sunday's the epitome of that. They did not do that.

[00:02:37] And they end up losing the game. And now we're sitting here fuming at 9.35 p.m. on a Sunday night because of the Seattle Mariners. Dude, how many good starts are they going to keep wasting? They waste Emerson's. They waste Logan Gilbert's. It's happening way too much these days. And a troubling trend so far is that they've not been good at winning one-run games, which comes back to the whole edge thing. They're 6-10 in one-run games now.

[00:03:08] 16 one-run games in the first six weeks of the season, give or take. That's a lot. That's a fuckton of one-run games that they're right now not winning. And we go down all the reasons why they're not winning these one-run games consistently. Bullpen? Inconsistent. Lineup? Inconsistent. Defense? Bad. Base running? Bad. Decision-making? Not good. Right. Oh, I can't believe I forgot that one. That might be the biggest one of all.

[00:03:34] But the combination of all those things leave to the Mariners at a significant disadvantage when they're playing these close games. And, I mean, today just kind of epitomized it. But that throw Randy Arrows are in and made home in the eighth inning, that's it. That's like you circle that in the highlighter of plays that swing close one-run games. An average fielding left fielder fields that ball that Randy caught and just throws it accurately home.

[00:04:00] This isn't like a throw where Randy is going too crazy off to one side. Or that he has to make like a near diving catch with a catch probability that's extremely low. No, it was just a simple short fly ball that Randy charged in on and then just made one of the worst throws ever home. Not even close to Cal. And it gives the Mariners, again, no chance to win the game. A competent throw home does not score a run there. And the game's tied.

[00:04:28] Simple defensive play. Simple. And the Mariners all around the diamond just cannot do that. But especially in left field. What is happening there? Is he trying to play hero ball? He hasn't set his feet. It looks like he's trying to throw it as hard as he can. And he air mails it. And he had time to set his feet and set up and wind up and make a good throw, too. It was not a good throw. Just the epitome of bad. You had a feeling something was going to be bad. Something bad was going to happen when he's charging in on that ball.

[00:04:57] But I didn't think the throw could possibly be that bad. I thought he would just kind of miss. That Cal would have to slightly jump to catch the ball and be unable to put a good tag down. Sometimes that happens. But, like, nearly throwing the ball to the backstop. And, dude, you had the chance to take the momentum back. Because when it was bases loaded in the seventh and it looked like Ferrer was going to blow it. I mean, you had a heroic defensive play from Cole Young bail you out of that inning. Get you back on offense.

[00:05:26] You still had the lead at that point. It was before Gritchick homered and tied it in the eighth. But they didn't do anything with it. They didn't take the moment by the handles and run with it. They didn't. I mean, they continued to just look lackluster offensively all afternoon. And it was back-to-back days where you had problems against the White Sox. I mean, after Cole Young makes that play, nothing. Like, they didn't do anything offensively.

[00:05:55] What's even more frustrating about this offense is that, for the most part, most key cogs in this offense have turned around. Like, let's run down the list right now. Julio. Julio Rodriguez right now, Lyle, has a 122 WRC+. On May 10th. I almost feel like that's the equivalent of Shohei having a 180 WRC+. On May 10th. It's incredible. We've literally never seen that from Julio. So it's great he's doing that. Luke Raley had a good weekend.

[00:06:23] He had two home runs on Friday. He's hitting the ball really well. Dom Canzon has hit the ball really well all season long. Josh Naylor, as of right now, is above 100 WRC+. As bad as he was to start the year, he's above 100. Cole Young is above 100. J.P. Crawford is above 100. Bren Donovan has a 900 OPS. He's been great. The problem stemming with the Mariners' offense right now, like, it's pretty glaring.

[00:06:51] But for the moment, I just laid out, oh, Randy Rosarena, I forgot to mention. We were just trashing his defense. His offense has been good. That's not been an issue at all. He's swung the bat very well. So you look at all that and you're like, why are the Mariners struggling to score runs? Why is this so hard? Well, there's one name you're leaving out. Yeah, Cal Rally's over his last 36. So he can't be healthy, right? No. No, I don't think so.

[00:07:19] It's either he's hurt or he's fatigued, which the fatigue is going to catch up at some point. But in May? He's played most games the entire time he's been in the big leagues. Right. But on May 10th? Do you have another explanation? I'd just be surprised if it was happening this early in the year. That's all. It's not a good thing if it was. Anyways, that's just a theory. We would never probably get an answer on fatigue.

[00:07:49] Especially when, you know, Dan won't give you an answer on pretty much anything. We wouldn't get an answer on fatigue. We just have to theorize that Cal Rally is tired. Unless the public came out and said, yeah, man, I just don't have my legs. That's why I'm over my last 36. Over 36 is really bad. Because Cal was trending back in the right direction offensively. His last hit before this over was a home run. We're like, all right, I mean, Cal's on his way back to being what he was offensively.

[00:08:18] Cal's back to having a 66 WRC plus and an OPS below 600. So is there a deeper conversation here? Because so much of 2025, the Mariners and their bad roster and bad roster building through last offseason and the first half of last season until they figured it out at the trade deadline was saved, was masked, was... Use any adjective you want.

[00:08:47] If those are adjectives or whatever, verb, whatever. I don't know. Dude, I don't know English. I think... Sure. Again... Wow, that is great backup from another Arizona State crowd, I gotta say. Anyway, use whatever word you want. You were saved and bailed out by a 60 home run season out of the best catcher in baseball last year who had an unprecedented year. And it masked a lot of problems.

[00:09:13] You didn't tank because you had Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano at first base. You didn't tank with all the injuries in the first half last year. You weren't good. But you didn't totally tank your season. Now Cal Raleigh is not hitting a 60 home run pace. He's not OPSing 900 plus. And it makes me wonder... Look, they're still a good team. But it does make me wonder a little bit

[00:09:40] if now we're seeing some of the potential issues with a roster that's been built that comes out when your best player is not having an unprecedented season. What do you mean by that? I mean, Cal took them to greatness last year. Right. Now he's sitting... I mean, now, as we said in May, he's been objectively, by the numbers, one of baseball's worst hitters. Are we seeing that this roster

[00:10:09] potentially could have more problems than what's been let on? Yeah, but it is hard to predict your best player not performing well. It is, but is it too much built around one guy? Again, an offseason ago when they did nothing, it was built around I don't know what. And out of nowhere, Cal Raleigh's 60 home run season bailed a lot of things out. If the question is, do the Mariners not have enough bats in their lineup to supplement Cal Raleigh? I think no. I don't think that's correct.

[00:10:39] I just listed off all the players playing well on offense. Like, everyone's performing. They're just not scoring runs. Okay. Yeah, like you have an above-average offensive first baseman, an above-average offensive second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, right fielder, and center fielder, and left fielder. Fair. Is it not enough star power? Is it just too many above, like slightly above-average players? Maybe not, but the other star,

[00:11:08] the other true borderline superstar on your roster, Julio, is playing like it. Offensively. Sure. It's like, that, yes. Naylor had a slow start, but is hitting much better as of late. I just think this offense might be streaky like it was last year. They still strike out a bit. Yeah. And they don't hit lefties. No, and they don't hit lefties, which, again, does not help the day-over-day consistent success of this offense. But ultimately, we saw what the highest

[00:11:39] upside offensively anyone had in this lineup was last year, and that was Cal. And when your best hitter is not performing the way he should, then you're just not as good of a baseball team. I'd say the Mariners' offensive performance now through May, if we're looking at it in a collective sense, there's two different ways you look at offense as a team. You can look at it through Team OPS. You can look at it through WRC+. Lyle and I have talked about the flaws of looking at Team WRC+, for the Mariners, because their stadium really skews it

[00:12:08] in a positive direction, while it might not look like it on the field. The Mariners have, I believe, the seventh best offense in baseball by WRC+, right now. I wouldn't believe it for a single second, but that's what the numbers say. OPS paints a more accurate picture. It has them at 20th. I've put them probably about in the middle between those two numbers. By run score, they're 24th. So yes, they are not the seventh best offense in baseball. That's why Team WRC+, is deceiving when you're looking at T-Mobile Park.

[00:12:37] Because we had foolish baseball on a while back, and we were talking about this exact thing with them. And he highlighted it pretty clearly and easily. He said, you don't actually have to hit that well in that park to have a good Team WRC+. You don't score adjusted runs. No. You score real runs. Real runs. And by real runs, they are the seventh worst offense in baseball. Right now. So what I would say with this offense is inconsistent. I don't think it lacks talent. I think it lacks consistency.

[00:13:07] Yeah. And it's hard. It is really hard. You're right. It is hard to be consistent when your best offensive player is not playing well and you can't hit one side of pitchers at all. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Look, life's a journey. Some days feel good. Others feel really overwhelming. Right? Whatever's keeping you up at night, it's easy to feel like you have to figure it all out on your own. But the truth is, no one has all the answers and no journey should be alone. Having someone with you

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[00:14:34] 1.7 million client reviews. You don't have to be on this journey alone. Find support and have someone with you in therapy. Sign up and get 10% off at BetterHelp.com That's BetterHelp.com Yeah, so how are they going to fix this? Because now we're getting to the territory of that Memorial Day point. We've got a couple weeks to go. But we are inching toward that Memorial Day point where you start to get a real sense of who teams may or may not be. And this is also about the point when you get to the end of May

[00:15:03] when you start seeing action. Are we going to start seeing action? Because there are flaws on this roster with the offense. There's no question. Well, there's a couple of I think big decisions that we're going to talk about in this episode. One had already been talked about. One hasn't been talked about a ton that I think would be good to talk about. Before we get to that is there anything else from this weekend specifically that we've missed? Oh, actually, sorry. I missed maybe the worst part of the entire game. The ninth inning.

[00:15:35] I mean, it's hard for me to really get on Cole because again, he also bailed them out and saved them multiple runs in the seventh. Sure, he could have taken a better bat but I don't think that loss is on Cole Young after, again, he saved them defensively. It's not just on Cole Young. It's on Brennan Donovan too. The Mariners had the bases loaded in the ninth inning. Sir Anthony Dominguez. You can go to my Twitter to look at this. I've tweeted this out. So he threw in the first four batters in the ninth inning five balls in the strike zone.

[00:16:06] That's it. The scouting report on Sir Anthony Dominguez, he's going to walk like 15% of the batters he faces. He's a little bit all over the place. So the Mariners went up there. The first four guys knew, yeah, he's been all over the place today. Let's not swing. Rob Refsneider walked on four pitches, loaded the bases for the Mariners. Both Cole Young and Brennan Donovan swung at pitches out of the strike zone in off the plate and got themselves out on weekly hit balls. Bad. Just, again,

[00:16:35] the little things. The little things you need to do to win close games. It can be something as small as a swing decision. The game doesn't ultimately boil down to Cole Young or Brennan Donovan, but those are the two highest leverage at-bats of the games. Of the game. And Lyle, like, it's a simple question. Was it a good at-bat with the game on the line? No, it was not a great at-bat. Either of them. No, it was not. It's just hard to do that when the process at the plate in the biggest moments is not good,

[00:17:05] then it's hard to be successful. That kind of, that grounded my gears a little bit. Well, and then- I'm not, I don't want to single those guys out, but it was, it was bad. Well, and then you pair that with Randy getting picked off again this weekend. Again. So, I mean, we talk about this whole thing plenty, but when are we going to start to have some further conversations about,

[00:17:36] you know, how clean or really not clean is what we should really say. This team's played through almost two months now. Because, you're talking base running blunders, you're talking bad defense. They are, they are looking bad in aspects that are just part of the game. It is hard to hit big league pitching, even though people are going to be frustrated with the Mariners' offensive points, and people want to see them have more offensive success at points. Those are more physical blunders

[00:18:05] that you go through over the course of a season. Like, you want them to hit more, but it's different than talking about base running decisions and mental mistakes and, you know, bad play on defense. Like, doesn't that go back to coaching? That stuff? I don't know, man. Go ahead. I was going to say, we can have a conversation about it, but how does that change? Like, this is the group of players you had. Like, you went through

[00:18:34] spring training together. Now it's just games being played. I'm just saying, there does seem to be a potential conversation around coaching here when you're not playing clean baseball in things that you can control. Isn't this what the Mariners sold their fans on with Dan Wilson? That his strength is supposed to be, like, really good clubhouse culture and, like, even if the decisions he makes are bad and it costs them at points, it's supposed to be

[00:19:03] balanced out by what he does in the clubhouse? Well, whatever's going on in the clubhouse is leading to sloppy play on the field with things you can control. So when you're not making good decisions and then you're, you have your team playing sloppy baseball, what are we doing here? All totally true, but, like, how does that change? Like, this might just be what the Mariners are this year. Like, that's it. Like, they're gonna have to win despite the fact

[00:19:32] they're not a good base running team, they're not a good defensive team, and they don't make good decisions. Being a tough defensive team, again, I mean, there's some coaching that can go into that, only so much. Yes, if you're not a good defensive player, then that is what it is. But some of the sloppy mental stuff, that's in your control, man. And again, Is it? Yeah, when you get picked off on the bases. How are they gonna get Randy to stop getting

[00:20:02] picked off on the bases? I don't know. I'm not the manager of the Seattle Mariners. I'm not on the Mariners coaching staff, but this is their job. From everything you and I understand about Randy or Rosarena, I don't think that's something that is just gonna get solved in season. What about the rest of it together, collectively? Randy's, look, it's been pretty sloppy at points with Randy this year in terms of like the mental mistakes, but there's 26 guys on this roster, and he's not the only one

[00:20:31] that's had issues with that. I don't know how that gets changed. Like, yeah, it needs to be better. I don't know how they fix it. I don't know, man, but like, as much as we sit here and have to hold players accountable, right, because we're talking about Cole Young and Brendan Donovan at bats, and we're talking about a throw from Randy, and we're talking about Calvian 0 for 36, there's a lot on players. You show up to play sloppy? Sloppy? That's a coaching thing, man.

[00:21:01] The mental mistakes, it's one thing to just not be a good defender, and we know there's players on this team that are not. There's plenty of them. The sloppy play is a coaching thing. 100%. That's in your control, and again, currently, along with a lot of players not playing their best baseball right now, which people, for every right reason, spend a lot of time highlighting, because it's ultimately the players that dictate the outcome of games. But, when you have a coaching staff, or like, when you have a manager

[00:21:30] that is currently making bad in-game decisions, and guys are making a lot of mental mistakes, I mean, that's a bad combo, man. Terrible. It's a terrible combo. But without a brand new coaching staff, the voices will be the same no matter what. I don't see how it changes. Sure, but it's on them to fix this, because again, this is what the Mariners sold people on about Dan, is how good he's supposed to be in the clubhouse. And I'm not saying guys don't like, like the players in that clubhouse don't like him,

[00:22:00] but it's more than just being liked. Like, he's supposed to be motivating these guys and have them ready to play. We have seen so much sloppy baseball through almost two months. I'm just saying, paired with bad in-game decision making. Yeah, it could be that, and it also could be some of the technical aspects of the coaching staff of how they're coaching base running and how they're coaching some of the other decision making aspects of this, which comes from Dan, but also stems from the rest of the coaches on the roster as well. Sure.

[00:22:30] And more coaches, sure, and coaches have to do their job specifically well, but ultimately it's the manager, man. 100%. Everybody's under Dan Wilson. Dan Wilson brought these people in. It's on him. Yep. Mm-hmm. So for as much as we're going to talk about these players, like, there's accountability to go around here as this team's not playing good baseball here in the middle of May. Thank goodness the American League is just dog shit. It's so bad. That was terrible. You know how we were talking the other day with Peter Apple? It's like, yeah,

[00:23:00] it's the Yankees and then a drop-off, then the Mariners, and then a drop-off, and then everyone else in the American League. It might not even be that. Like, Mariners are pretty mid, if not bad, right now. The Yankees are 1-8 against winning teams this year. Well, the Mariners aren't a winning team right now, so they don't factor into that. The A's who are currently leading, the A's who are currently leading the American League West have a negative run differential. The Tampa Bay Rays,

[00:23:30] based off their run differential, only have an expected win-loss of one game better than the Mariners right now. So again, like, the American League stinks. This might be the year to just be a totally mediocre team and make the playoffs anyways, and then go on a run from there. If you need another boost of optimism, go look at the standings because it is, it's not pretty. Definitely not pretty. Bad. Just want to remind you guys before we get to our final two segments here of this podcast, we have an event this weekend on Sunday

[00:23:59] during and after the Sunday Night Baseball games against the San Diego Padres. It's another one of our Corona Watch Parties. This one will take place at Occidental Hall. Yes, the game is going on. The Mariners will be on Sunday Night Baseball. I believe it's a 420 first pitch. But Lyle and I, instead of being at the game, we'll be at Occidental Hall. We'll be watching along for all of you that want to come down to the stadium, might not have a ticket to the game, but want to come hang out with us and watch instead. We will have some Corona giveaways, we'll have some drink deals, and then we'll be

[00:24:29] taping the podcast upstairs after the game. So again, we'll want to remind you guys, we'll remind you guys every podcast episode this week, but at the Sunday game against the San Diego Padres, we'll be having our Corona live event for some giveaways, some drink deals, some awesome hall food, and a post-game podcast taping. So, make sure to come by. And then, another reminder, because we have our trivia night at Emerald Queen Casino, 6pm on May 26th. If you haven't marked either of those on your calendar yet,

[00:24:58] make sure you got them down. That will be this Sunday, upcoming Sunday, May 17th, at, I'll say Lyle and I'll be there at 345-ish at the hall. And then, 6pm on May 26th at Emerald Queen Casino. Alright, mark those on your calendar. 3, 2, 1. Great. Okay, before we get to our next segment though, Lyle, let's pause here for an ad. Buying a home is a big deal. It's probably the largest purchase you'll ever make,

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[00:26:27] Let's talk about the decision that's been made, that Bryce Miller will return to the Mariners rotation this upcoming series against the Houston Astros. He'll start on Wednesday. They've laid out two things to us, according to Ryan Divish. There will be no one in the Mariners starting rotation sent down and no one's going in the bullpen. So the Mariners are going to do a six-man rotation one time through, it seems like, and then, quote-unquote,

[00:26:57] figure it out from there. So what does that look like? So when Divish writes that, which he did, that means period, right? Just in case people are confused. Nobody's going in the bullpen, period? I read it as no one's going in the bullpen right now. But also, I think that's kind of BS, but I'll get to that in a second. Sure. If that is the case, and sorry, let's be very clear. We are not saying what Divish is writing is BS. Divish is the GOAT. We know he is, like, when he writes things and he reports things, he's right about it.

[00:27:27] What TJ means is BS is what the Mariners are saying to the media. That's what he means. Well, it's just like, yeah, we're not putting anyone in the bullpen. The idea that they were throwing out there is piggyback. Like, they are putting someone in the bullpen. Sure. By piggybacking. Yeah. So where do we want to start with this? The decision made? I mean, the decision made is that they think Luis Castillo is going to rebound. That's what they think.

[00:27:57] And based on, you know, hearing some conversations about it and seeing that Castillo's stuff from a swing and miss perspective ticked up in his last two starts, the Mariners are going to bank that he will be better in the next month than he was in the previous month. That's what they think. And that the Mariners are going to try and accommodate six starters to the rotation as opposed to five. So that's the optimistic version. The other version is they want to keep

[00:28:27] everyone stretched out. I mean, that's the simplest one. They want six guys throwing starter level innings weekly. So they don't they don't lose the guy for a month building back up. Can you really trick a clubhouse for this long? Luis's ERA in May is six and a half and it's been trending the wrong way for a couple years like we've talked about.

[00:28:57] What are we waiting for, man? I get that this is a tough conversation to probably have with him and maybe it's a tough conversation to have in the locker room because I know he has cachet in that clubhouse but do they want to win the World Series or not? He's got a six and a half ERA sure his stuff ticked up in his last start he's still gotten some strikeouts but he gave up two more home runs lasted four innings gave up four earned his ERA went up again

[00:29:26] and you want me to pull out a line from the second major league movie? And Munitaka Murakami hit his home run that ball wouldn't have been out in a lot of parks. Name one Yellowstone? Like come on man how long are they going to prolong this? If they're really just doing this for 14 days and one turn through the rotation so Luis Castillo and the rest of the crew get some extra rest and they don't have to make a decision on it this second or something along those lines I guess

[00:29:57] but if they're going to do this long term one I don't know how that makes any sense to help your bullpen and number two like at what point do results matter with Luis Castillo? You know what might matter with Luis Castillo frankly his 24 million dollar price tag where people signing the checks are like yeah we're paying him 24 million dollars he can't leave the rotation well I've got news for the people writing those checks you're currently writing him checks for him to lose you games

[00:30:25] so how about you put him on the Phantom IL like we've been talking about I mean that's not a bullpen decision you don't have to put him in the bullpen you don't have to publicly out him and saying you lost your spot in this rotation you can sit him down for a few weeks and figure it out from there and then if there's an injury then fine you could slot him back in if you had to but also in addition to all of this and continuing to kick this

[00:30:55] can down the road at some point Kate Anderson is coming because by the way on Friday man did Kate Anderson lose all his value as a prospect on Friday by finally allowing one run I mean I'd probably send him back to the complex league if I was the Mariners at this point with Kate Anderson he just doesn't have it no I'm kidding Kate Anderson continues to dominate he's coming at some point man he looks like a big leaguer that just doesn't have a spot on a bigger league roster because the rotation is too loaded so

[00:31:27] you're continuing to kick the can down the road with this but what are you going to do when Kate's ready too because Luis ain't in good faith surviving multiple roster crunches in that rotation no there's no way when Kate Anderson gets here if Luis Castillo is still one of the five somebody's made a bad faith decision or he's turned it around sure but turned it around so much so to the point where it's somebody else getting the boot I don't know I think they're going to see if there's something worth

[00:31:56] salvaging from this situation if I'm going to guess and they want to see how it looks when Luis Castillo maxes out for four innings can he save some value by throwing like for having his stuff tick up for a shorter period of time it's a little unfair to Bryce but also Bryce is coming off a season in which he didn't pitch very well and he was very injured and he was injured to start this year as well so perhaps they don't want to throw a full workload under Bryce Miller also so they're going to ramp Bryce back up

[00:32:26] and get him comfortable back in the big leagues see how Luis looks in shorter spurts and go from there but yeah if you're asking me for a black and white decision who do you want in the rotation Bryce Miller or Luis Castillo right now I'd rather give Bryce a look and give Luis Castillo a break on the injured list but if I'm going to try and explain the Mariners decision making with this one they're trying to salvage some value out of the 24 million dollars they're paying Louis Castillo that's what they're trying to do right now yes

[00:32:56] you're right it hurts the bullpen but the problem is the Mariners don't have a lot of unlike last year the Mariners don't have like a bullpen that is stuck at the big league level with a bunch of guys but that's it the rest of the

[00:33:26] guys they would have no problem if they burn them at the big league level shuffling up and down from AAA Tacoma because there's just not that much proven depth in that bullpen therefore they can just replace them so yeah they'll pitch a man down but the man down turns into an extra man added into the bullpen the next day while they keep those two pitching you're a bullpen arm short

[00:33:56] well no you're not because instead of riding with the same six guys or seven guys in that bullpen you just replace them I mean I guess you can just replace them but are you like how constantly are you going to keep doing that is all the roster moving worth that I mean it's going to be for two weeks I dog I don't think

[00:34:26] then it's done I think I think they're trying to find a way to salvage this if it's not salvage well even when they tell Luis going into a start you're throwing four innings max empty the tank and he's still not good then that's a sign okay but there's a reason this is not a thing across Major League Baseball there's a reason teams don't really do this well teams don't have this many starters across baseball I guess but even if you did

[00:34:56] you don't see teams piggybacking starters throughout a bulk of a regular season well we don't even know if it's a bulk we have no idea how long this is going to last okay but what if it works like if it works then then great that means Castillo's pitching better and he's also doing better on shorter samples but again all year you're just going to be shuffling your bullpen up and down and up and down because by the way you've got to stay down 10 days before you can get called back up

[00:35:25] the Rainiers only have so many bullpen options that you can call up to the big leagues and there's only so many guys you probably feel comfortable with calling up like you're giving yourself a lot of headaches here potentially I hope it works I hope they salvage something but this doesn't feel like a long-term plan I think they are trying they're trying to find some answers of what could work and if again nothing works then they will make the decision either put them on the I.L. or put them in the

[00:35:55] bullpen okay fine but at the same time I'll preface it again by saying sure if this is short term then okay but this is the year you're not supposed to

[00:36:29] half ERA for a guy that's continued to trend the wrong way it like all people have been sold this year is win win win win go win the world series like the players and the team I mean they've thrown around world series since spring training they know what the expectations are but toying around with stuff like this if it's going to be longer than a week or two that doesn't really feel like you're screaming world series

[00:36:58] that feels like you be different in the year of 2026 when again all the messaging has been different if they're going to backtrack on this and show their cards a little bit

[00:37:30] then you're telling a seeing how Bryce Miller looks one piggyback maybe two piggyback starts I don't think that's the end of the world

[00:38:00] well but Teej we'll be talking about a whole different thing here if the reporting and the messaging out there was definitively like this is going to be one time and then X is going to happen or then Y is going to happen they're leaving a lot of things up for interpretation right now so I'm sitting here both of us everybody listening not really knowing what it's going to look like as we move down the road and because of that yes do I have skepticism a bit with

[00:38:30] how long they're going to let this ride out if it's going to work why they don't just make a decision on the rotation now yeah like we'd be having a different conversation if there was more definitive messaging out there yeah they essentially said they don't know what they're going to do yeah you'd think it would be a little bit clearer but no they don't know the time of year does not help it doesn't if this was July much easier decision no but again he might not be

[00:39:11] year while you're in the situation you're in but again at some point Kate Anderson is coming and are you going to go through this whole thing again one I would hope not and two I just don't see how he survives multiple roster crunches with more pitchers on the way so if that's the case I guess I just don't really understand not making more of a definitive decision about it now why not just put him in the bullpen now if you

[00:39:41] think at some point this year Kate Anderson is going to be here and again this is less about the bullpen because we've said they may need him to start more games this year I guess again I just

[00:40:11] don't really understand why you wouldn't just give him a couple weeks off maybe that's the way to ease Bryce back into but which it very well might be wow like they want to see how he looks at the big league level he hasn't in the regular season consistently looked good since September of 2024 yeah by the way they also haven't announced who's going to

[00:40:49] probably four innings well I think no I think it matters because if you start Bryce Miller who I think would be the better option at this point you let him go as much as he can go let's say he goes five and two thirds you can get somebody to get out of the six and Castillo throws the final three but I one or six and

[00:41:19] two I don't want to see him pulled after four because Luis Castillo has to throw his four innings I'd love to have an answer for you but again I that's after he

[00:41:49] finally for the first time this year had a bit of a clunker of a start didn't matter because they won the game but it was going to happen at some point as I don't think Emerson was going to not the

[00:42:19] play on the field will tell us everything we need to know like it's already told us a lot but when the two of are back I think the Mariners maybe just want some confirmation bias for themselves watching Bryce pitch to feel more comfortable making the decision that's all well and let's hope that's the case and

[00:42:48] rehab starts when he's throwing 98, 99 and they get that confirmation and then make the decision, then great. Then we don't have to worry as much and have this whole elongated conversation. But we also don't know if that's really what they're going to decide or not. I hope it is, but we don't know. Yeah. There's another decision the Mariners might need to make and I don't think many people have been talking about it. Definitely we haven't. But

[00:43:13] before we talk about that, Lyle, let's pause here for an ad. We always want our listeners to be informed about the game of baseball and the Mariners. Believe it or not, there was a time where we had to learn what catch probability was or why a manager only uses his closer in the ninth inning. And it's our goal to make sure everyone understands these things when they listen to us. You can think about accidents and Davis Law Group the same way. They want you to know your rights in the case of an accident. That's why Chris Davis, founder of the Davis Law Group, wrote a series

[00:43:39] of Washington accident books. He turned common questions into easy to understand books to help people navigate the process. And they've given away over a hundred thousand free copies to people across Washington. They want you to be informed. Davis Law Group has been representing accident victims since 1994. They're one of the top rated locally owned personal injury firms on Google and their in-house investigation team can handle complex cases and will prepare every claim like it's going to trial. They only take cases when they believe they can truly help. And you don't pay

[00:44:09] a fee unless they get you a result. If you've been injured and want to better understand your options, you can request a free no obligation case evaluation with their team. Just click the link in our bio or visit dlgseattle.com slash baseball to learn more. That's dlgseattle.com slash baseball to learn more. Victor Robles is coming back, which is expected. He's been rehabbing down in Tacoma.

[00:44:34] He's played his first week of games. He could join the Mariners, I think when they get home, they haven't said exactly when. It would make sense from a time perspective that he rejoins them after finishing, it would be about 10 games at that point in Tacoma when the Mariners come home on Friday against the Padres. But, uh, we don't exactly know who he's replacing on the roster because while earlier in the year,

[00:44:59] it might look like it was obviously Connor Joe. While it still might be Connor Joe, it's not as slam dunk as we thought it would be at this point. I mean, who are the options? It's, it's Joe, or I guess it's ref Snyder, right? Mm-hmm. That's who I was thinking of because he's not going to, he's not going to take any of the infielder spots and you have two right-handed hitting outfielders.

[00:45:24] The decision this time, I think, will be Connor Joe. But if the Bears have to make another right-handed hitting decision a month from now, month and a half from now, that's when I think there will be more conversations about Rob Refsnyder going forward. Because while he's had his moments this season, that Sunday in St. Louis was very fun at our last live event at Moss Bay Hall. Super, super,

[00:45:53] super fun. You know, you're seeing some discourse today online where it's like, Connor Joe is doing what Rob Refsnyder is supposed to be doing this season. And he plays more positions than Rob Refsnyder does. And at some point on a one-year deal, you just say something is not working for you. I hate, I hate that this is turning exactly into AJ Pollock. I hate it so much. I really didn't want that comp to be right. Right now, it kind of looks like it.

[00:46:25] If this doesn't turn around and it really doesn't work with Refsnyder, the Mariners are never allowed to sign a right-handed platoon bat ever again, right? No, they're not. Nope. Like, ever again. Every single time it's gone wrong. Even when all the process and the data says it should be right. Like... I mean, we literally sit on this podcast. Yeah, I mean, all of the things that were concerns about AJ Pollock, his age, the amount of money he's making, the role he's playing,

[00:46:53] the position he plays. It's the same thing with Rob Refsnyder. But don't worry, Rob Refsnyder is going to be good. Well, there's a chance we got that one wrong. There is a chance. I really hope Rob Refsnyder's May looks a whole lot different than his April was. But as we're sitting here right now, the difference between Connor Joe and Rob Refsnyder is Connor Joe

[00:47:17] has a 119 WRC plus after today. Rob Refsnyder has a WRC plus of 25. Rob Refsnyder is essentially only DH'd and has still been worth negative 0.5 F4 in 55 plate appearances. You know what else this is teaching us a bit? When we spend our week at spring training every year,

[00:47:44] it's great. It's one of our favorite weeks of the year. But it is a little bit of a fantasy land. You ever notice that? Because whenever anybody comes away from spring training, it's all exhibition games. You're seeing all the guys working out. You're watching all the storylines that you're going to want to watch as you get ready to see the start of the season take place. There's not really going to be a chance to have bad takeaways from spring training unless somebody gets injured. Or they look fat.

[00:48:13] Yeah. Yeah. Like a Pablo Sandoval type thing. Yeah. But... Or they struggle to throw to first base. Oh, like Luis Urias. Yeah. I mean... Yeah. There's a bit of a fantasy land world that you enter in spring training that maybe isn't reality. A little bit. Yeah, it's like a veil. A little bit. Because... And look, I don't want to take anything away from Rob Refsnyder.

[00:48:42] Like, he is an extremely hard worker. There's no doubt about it. Like, we saw it. We talked to him about it. He is very, very locked in on his process. And... Like, going through the steps it takes to be a very good big league hitter. And the whole process that goes behind it. But... I mean, you and I saw all that throughout the spring. And we're like, oh my god. Like, this is so cool. Like, he's such a workhorse. This is going to be great. Like... Like, it was essentially validating the hype we had when they signed him.

[00:49:12] About, oh, this is going to be perfect. They needed this guy to come in and hit lefties. It's the culture, Fantlile. It's the... Like, this is the kind of work ethic every single Mariner needs to have. Right. Like, he's going to fit right into the clubhouse. They'll gravitate around him. And I'm not saying the guys don't like him. Because again, I think he is a very likable guy. But then you're not really thinking in that moment in time, what if he comes out and OPS is 500? Because that's now the reality. Or less. Yeah. I mean...

[00:49:42] It's unfortunate. He's a super nice guy. Loved getting to talk to him. That... I mean, you could give this probably another month. He's not making enough money where he needs to stay on the roster the entire season. If it does not turn around, then if the Mariners need to make another decision with a right-handed hitting outfielder, it's going to be him. This time, because Connor Joe has an option, they can send Connor Joe back to Tacoma. And Victor Robles will rejoin the team.

[00:50:10] And Robles, I think, will get a lion's share of the right-handed at-bats. Because the Mariners need better production against lefties with a righty at the plate. But if Ref Snyder doesn't get an opportunity, it doesn't take advantage of the opportunity and the handfuls of at-bats he will get against left-handed pitching going forward for probably, I'll say, the next month, then maybe they'll have to make a decision on this. I looked it up. They DFA'd Rowdy Tellez last year on June the 20th.

[00:50:40] So yeah, I think Ref Snyder's got at least another month, and they're going to hope this all turns around for him. But you're right. It's not going to last forever if this never turns around. At some point, they will have to make some decisions. And I hope Ref Snyder really does start to click and it all turns around, because that would be great. They just have to find a way to do something against left-handed pitching. And his role is supposed to be a big part of that. But it's not happening right now.

[00:51:08] I hope he turns this thing around and carves out his role, because it would help him and the team greatly. But if it's another month that goes by and it hasn't, then yes, there might have to be some conversations. No, Mariners didn't actually DFA A.J. Mholic. They traded him to the Giants. I don't know if Rob Refsnyder makes it to the trade deadline. He could. But yeah, I guess we'll see. This is not a conversation I was expecting to be having on May 10th,

[00:51:36] that Connor Joe deserves Rob Ref Snyder's spot in the lineup. But Connor Joe, he doesn't have a great offensive track record. In fact, for his career, significantly worse than Rob Ref Snyder's offensive track record. And yet here we are, looking at their small sample sizes, and Connor Joe's just been a better baseball player and plays more positions on the field and makes more sense for the Mariners. Dude, they didn't DFA Donovan Solano until early September. What was he doing?

[00:52:07] I don't know. Oh, no. He was, they were waiting for him to hit his 10-year. Maybe that's what it was. So I think he was just eating up a roster spot. Because, oh, that's when they called up Leo Rivas. Or was that when they called up Harry Ford? Oh, could be that too. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, it was one of the rosters. Maybe both. Because Leo last year was stuck in Tacoma until the end of the season. Right.

[00:52:36] And he was killing it in Tacoma. Mm-hmm. Because Dylan Moore was OPSing 140? Against left-handed pitching over a three-month stretch. Not for the year, but it was like, it was like from the start of June until the time he got DFA'd, he was straight up OPSing 140 against left-handed pitching, which led to our discussion on the pod ever so infamously. Could the Mariners call up Felmin Celestin right now from high A? He had just gotten called up to high A.

[00:53:05] Could they call him up and OPS 140 in the big leagues against left-handed pitching? And our answer was yes. Yeah. Yeah. Wouldn't be good, but it would be higher than 140. Yeah. Felmin, by the way, on an absolute tear. We can save that for another episode. We probably need to do a minor league check-in here at some point, but he has been awesome. Yeah. And so happy for Felmin, because last year was a struggle for him, a huge adjustment to high A. It clearly showed.

[00:53:34] He is taken this year by storm, man. He's only 20. Oh, yeah. Sometimes guys need a teenage year to figure it out and hit better. You could say the same thing for your hair, Batista. I mean, I know it's early for him, but last year he was about average as a hitter in the DSL. Well, this year in the complex league so far, he's been pretty good. Hey, that's friend of the pod, your hair, Batista. Nobody likes more of our posts than your hair, Batista. I think that's among all of our followers.

[00:54:04] I honestly think he might like the most posts out of anybody. I wish we had analytics on that. That would be funny. He'd probably rank pretty high. Listen, he's the man. Shout out your hair. Mm-hmm. So is that our final say? Is a few more weeks on Ref Snyder to figure this out, and then we'll see where they're at? Joe, for now, Ref Snyder, we'll see. But it's not a conversation that's going to escape Rob Ref Snyder unless he starts turning around consistently. It can't be a home run here or there.

[00:54:34] He's going to need to go on a pretty hot streak here. Otherwise, he's not going to make it this season. Sure. Well, what a fun, uplifting pod here on a Monday. Just what people wanted to hear. Weekend was off to a great start, and then, man, oh, man. Again, just needed the comedic value. That's all we wanted. We wanted a Jared Kelnick home run, and then we could have laughed it off. But no, we didn't even get that.

[00:55:01] Instead, we got Miguel Vargas, Murakami. Randall Gritchett. Is there a little Gritchett hitting a game-tying home run? Again, that would have been way better if it was Jared. Why didn't Dan bring in Munoz to face Jared Kelnick in the seventh inning? Why did he bring Bizarro to win instead? Next on Undisputed. Also, we went the whole episode and didn't even mention it. Logan Gilbert had his best start of the season today. Let's get more of that, please. That was great. He looked great.

[00:55:32] Way more of it. And he was working deep into the game. Yeah, like he looked pretty good. 84 pitches in six innings, which some people said pulled him too early. But you know what? Some of Logan's starts toward the tail end, at least recently, have started to taper off. I actually think it was okay that they pulled him where they pulled him. Sunday's game and Saturday's, too, was on the offense scoring two combined runs in two days against the Chicago White Sox. Logan did his job.

[00:56:02] And he didn't necessarily have to be out there in the seventh. Could he have? Sure. One run against the White Sox. That's on the offense. That's where the issue is. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Well, that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full-form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure to download these episodes if you're listening. Go rate and review five stars. It helps a ton. If you're on YouTube, make sure to like, comment, and hit subscribe.

[00:56:32] You can also check us out at our website, marinelyarpod.com. All our merch is there. Patreon's there. Episodes are all there. You can find that. You can also follow us across social media everywhere. We're posting content every day at MarineLayerPod. And we'll give you another reminder. Sunday, May 17th, for Sunday Night Baseball, Mariners and Padres, we're hosting a watch party and post-game podcast recording, live podcast recording at Occidental Hall in Seattle, right across the street from the ballpark. We'd love to have you guys join us. Mark it on your calendars.

[00:57:01] May the 17th. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.

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