Episode 477: Does Steven Kwan Fix The Mariners Outfield Problem?

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number 477 of the Marine Lara podcast. It's a mailbag episode, so we'll open it up and answer your best listener questions. We also have some Mariners news with the offseason starting over the last couple of days and the Mariners taking some action. 00:00:15 Speaker 2: Reminder to you guys, just before we get going, make sure you go rate and review if you're listening to these podcasts. Please leave it five stars. It really, really does help if you do. Hit the subscribe button if you're watching on YouTube, and then check out both our website, which is at marinelayerpod.com, where you'll find everything there, including our merch, including our Patreon. And check us out on social media, too. We're everywhere at marinelayerpod. 00:00:38 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling. And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network. Recording here on Thursday evening, October 29th. The Mariners still don't have a manager. Hopefully they have a new manager soon. But since there hasn't been any action on that front since we last recorded, I've actually had a new thought brewing. 00:01:12 Speaker 2: All right, let's hear what you got. 00:01:14 Speaker 1: So I feel like for most of this time... Once it whittled down to these two candidates, I said, all right, Espada. You have to choose Espada because Espada has that floor you need to take this team to the postseason. I've actually pivoted. I think if you're a Mariner fan, you should want Jason Kanzler to be the next manager of this team. 00:01:36 Speaker 2: Okay. I mean, I'm interested in where your head's going with this, but elaborate. 00:01:40 Speaker 1: Elaborate. The knock on Espada is you kind of know what he is as a manager. You know there's not unlimited upside there and that he's not going to be the guy that you employ for the next 15 years. The details with Kanzler has been, oh, he could be a boom. He's young. He's intense. He's incredibly smart. He could be a guy like Kevin Cash that you hire forever. But he also could kind of blow up in your face. And I think of that proposition as a positive. The biggest beef with the current version of the Mariners, Lyle, is that they haven't broken past this somehow impenetrable 90-win ceiling as a roster. If you hire Jason Kanzler and you hear all this stuff about upside and new thought into this organization, you could potentially break through that 90-win ceiling if you hire him as your manager because he brings these ideas to you that you just haven't had before, and it brings out more from the players. But on the flip side, if it doesn't work out and he's not the right pick, you can start over as an organization, which I also think would not be the worst thing in the world for them to do. 00:02:53 Speaker 2: And by that, you mean the front office probably goes, Kanzler only gets a year, maybe you start to turn over a decent portion of the roster, things like that, right? 00:03:02 Speaker 1: Correct. Because the fans will either get an ultimate positive, or what people were really looking for this offseason, which is, you know, actual accountability up and down the organization for bad decisions and decisions made on the fact that the team just hasn't been good enough and not reaching the ceiling they should. 00:03:23 Speaker 2: Okay. I don't hate the thought. I think there's some validity to it. I would also counter and say, is Espada really any different in the sense of if he were to miss the playoffs in year one, Is there a world he stays where the front office goes? I don't really think there is unless the new front office would come in and say, OK, I want to keep Joe Espada. He's our guy. I don't think that ends up making a difference either way. And the reason I still lean more toward Joe Espada is because for as bright as Kanzler might be. You know, Mike McDonald didn't make the playoffs in year one. It took McDonald a little bit of time to really figure out who he was as a coach. McDonald obviously hired Ryan Grubb as his offensive coordinator. That didn't work out. They let him go after year one. McDonald had a little bit of a learning curve, and I just don't think this group has any time for learning curves. Where, again, Espada might not be the best manager in Major League Baseball, but he knows how to manage in the big leagues and manage in an above-average manner. He's done it. So I think this is still why I lean a little bit more toward Espada because they've really got to win this year. 00:04:30 Speaker 1: But here's the difference. You're thinking logically slash thinking as if you were in control of this organization. And you're thinking of what needs to happen this year. I'm thinking of what I feel like the fans should think. In your mind, right, what do you think Espada does? Like 88 wins? 00:04:48 Speaker 2: Again, we've talked about this over the last couple weeks. It's so hard to know. Was that his ceiling because that's who he was as a manager? Or was that his ceiling in Houston because Jim Crane meddles a lot and Jeff Bagwell's not the world's greatest front office person and Dana Brown was the GM who got fired? It's tough to say. I don't know if Joe Espada is a finalist for the Mariners because they think that he's got way more left in the tank than he proved in Houston, or it's because they've unfortunately had a lot of candidates just turn them down and not work out, whether it be Rocco Baldelli, Stephen Vogt, Tori Lavello. Alex Cora was never really going to come here, but that's exactly the point. If you were the Mariners and you were interested in him, he was probably going to say no. So is Espada one of your finalists because he's further down your list? I don't know. I think there's, like, if there's a world where Espada actually has more left in the tank as a manager, then, you know, maybe he is the guy. Maybe he proves he can win 93 games in Seattle, 94 games. 00:05:47 Speaker 1: It's possible, but has the roster proved that? Like, I don't think so. 00:05:51 Speaker 2: Well, no, and this roster has a lot of work to do this winter, and they need to make a lot of improvements. 00:05:57 Speaker 1: Which is, again, why I might lean toward Kanzler, right? Where if If Joe Espada is going to get the 50th or 75th percentile outcome out of this roster and we're going to just see more of the same, I don't think that's going to exactly encourage people. Like if this team bows out in the wild card and wins 86 to 87 games, sure, technically they've like made the playoffs, but has anything really changed? No. 00:06:22 Speaker 2: Well, yeah. 00:06:25 Speaker 1: And ultimately, I don't think people want some sort of significant change to show there is progress forward. as opposed to not. I mean, with Kanzler, again, it could either work out great or you can actually start over. 00:06:40 Speaker 2: Sure. God, I'd like to just see him win in 2027. That'd be awesome. Just get rid of the 2026 season. You never have to think about it again. All of it. 00:06:50 Speaker 1: But the perfect scenario is Joe Espada wins 95 games. It just, I don't know where, how we could predict that. with any logic to back that up. 00:06:59 Speaker 2: No, I just don't know how you can really predict it with Kanzler either. It's just like, again, first-time managers and guys like that that are really young and really bright, a lot of times you see them get jobs with teams that are up and coming. Again, I'll use the example of Drew Butera again with the Nationals. Butera might prove he's one of the best managers in the league here in a few years, but he wasn't going to do it in year one because the roster just wasn't there, and I'm guessing the idea there is he was going to grow with the roster. I don't think anybody expected Mike McDonald to win the Superbowl in year one. I'm not sure anybody expected him to win the Superbowl in year two, but he did. Anyway, the point being is in year one, I think there was some trial and error with Mike McDonald and he realized things that worked and things that didn't. And you just don't really have that year for experience of leeway with this job. You've got to win immediately. 00:07:48 Speaker 1: But if cancer is a Sean McVay and you make the playoffs in your first season. Yeah, that's different. 00:07:55 Speaker 2: It is different. I hope Kanzler doesn't spend all offseason complaining about a two-point conversion call that, in McVay's mind, actually lost them the Super Bowl. 00:08:06 Speaker 1: Well, it would be an upgrade still. 00:08:08 Speaker 2: Of course. Again, I think I've said this on here before whenever we were talking football. McVay can just be such an eye roll with some of his quotes. It's like, dude, no, you didn't not make the Super Bowl because of a two-point conversion in the middle of the regular season. No. Anyway, it's an interesting debate. It seems almost a surefire thing that one of these two guys is going to be the next manager. There are pros and cons to both. We've talked about it. But let us know in the comments. If you're listening, where do you lean right now? Would you rather more see Espada? Would you rather more see Kanzler? And whose side of the aisle of this argument are you more on? Are you more on mine or are you more on TJ's? I think there's validity to both. 00:08:48 Speaker 1: There's some Mariners news we're going to touch on before we get into the mailbag. Another great batch of mailbag questions today. To start off, Lyle, Andres Munoz had a $ 9 million team option for his contract. It got picked up. Massive shocker. 00:09:03 Speaker 2: There was never any doubt in that. I think every single one of Munoz's club options will be picked up. Now, there's only two more. There's this year's, and then there's next year's, and then he'll be a free agent. But it's $ 9 million this year. It's about $ 10 million next year. I'm sure both of them are going to get picked up. So yeah, no shocker. 00:09:20 Speaker 1: There's going to be almost no debate unless unless there's some sort of injury. But again, it's it's almost impossible that those options are going to get picked up for it is one of the most team friendly deals in all of Major League Baseball. 00:09:32 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:09:34 Speaker 1: The other one. probably caught people off guard today. The Mariners declined their team option on Bryce Miller, but it's a different scenario than Andres Munoz's options. So Bryce Miller entered arbitration for the first time last year and signed a two-year deal of a contract. They projected his contract for this upcoming season to be $ 6. 75 million. So why would a team do that? So they've assigned given themselves an option where they essentially cap what Bryce Miller can make in year two of this ARB. Maybe they gave him, I can't remember if they gave him a little bit more last year to start while essentially capping what he would make in his second year of arbitration. So he makes his salary from 2026 and His projected 2027 salary was $ 6. 75 million. If Bryce Miller had pitched his butt off and he was supposed to make way more money in arbitration, then the Mariners would have picked up that team option. He didn't pitch that well, so the Mariners are going to decline that team option and take Bryce to arbitration again. They're not letting him go to try and get a lower number than that. No. 00:10:45 Speaker 2: It's not the offseason unless... Poor Bob Nightingale has a misspeak in his tweet. 00:10:51 Speaker 1: He did it in the first day of the offseason. Yeah. He got community noted on Twitter. 00:10:57 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Bryce Miller's now hitting free agency. No, no, he's not. 00:11:01 Speaker 1: Listen, we've actually. 00:11:02 Speaker 2: I think we've said this. We've actually met Bob. He's actually very nice if you meet him in person. He just. 00:11:08 Speaker 1: He's a Sun Devil. 00:11:09 Speaker 2: He is a Sun Devil. He went to ASU just like we did. Unfortunately... He does make some mistakes when tweeting out news, as we know. 00:11:19 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's to put it lightly. 00:11:21 Speaker 2: The final one is the Mariners declined a $ 9 million club option on Victor Robles for next year, so he will hit free agency. I don't think that's a shocker either. I don't think Victor Robles was ever going to get $ 9 million from the Mariners, unless he'd had a season that was more like the way he played in 2024, because that half a season he played in 2024 was electric. 00:11:42 Speaker 1: Well, he essentially got benched in the last month of the season. He did not play. 00:11:46 Speaker 2: We never really talked about it, but we mentioned how Robles basically didn't get an at-bat for what felt like the final month. Now that we're sitting here, now that we're thinking about it, how many at-bats did Robles have in the month of September? Yeah, I'm looking at this. 00:12:00 Speaker 1: Not many. 00:12:01 Speaker 2: Victor Robles had three plate appearances in the month of September. He had one on September 1st. He had two on September 12th. And he only appeared in four games. I think the other two were as defensive replacements. But again, he didn't play the final two to two and a half weeks of the season. 00:12:18 Speaker 1: He's fully healthy too. Right. 00:12:20 Speaker 2: He wasn't on the IL. 00:12:21 Speaker 1: No, he was not. Like his playing time was essentially taken all up by Laz, but he, it was like Cole Young in 2025 in September, just healthy on the roster, but not playing a single second. Right. 00:12:35 Speaker 2: So that one's not that shocking that they didn't pick that one up either. So he'll hit free agency. Look, assuming Robles probably isn't back here, it was a fun couple of years that he was here. I know 2025 he didn't get to play that much, but he certainly had one of the most memorable regular season catches the Mariners have ever had in that play in Houston that essentially– help seal them the division. That was awesome. Again, I still think him chucking the bat in the minor league game last year was electric. I know some people were mad at him. 00:13:07 Speaker 1: Certainly a storyline. 00:13:08 Speaker 2: It was a huge storyline. Some people were mad at him, and I totally get why. I actually thought, what was our joke when he tossed the bat? We said, hey, at least we know his shoulder's healthy, because he hurt his shoulder early in the year. Yeah. 00:13:20 Speaker 1: But. 00:13:21 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll miss Victor Robles. He was always a he was always a lightning bottle of energy. He was always, you know, he was always in good spirits. He just wasn't going to get paid nine million dollars. 00:13:30 Speaker 1: And his 2024 season was one of the very, very, very few positives about that year. That was another like a miserable, frustrating year. The Mariners didn't even really get a player like that on their 2026 roster under very similar circumstances. But Victor Robles was pretty electric in that 2024 season. 00:13:46 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:13:47 Speaker 1: He's fun. 00:13:48 Speaker 2: Yeah, you could call Canzone breaking out a little bit of that player, but I get what you mean. Robles wasn't expected to have much of a role when they picked him up in 24, and then he turned into a really nice piece of the team. 00:14:00 Speaker 1: He was a little bit more flashy, too, because he's making catches in the outfield. I remember he had that leadoff home run while we were in the ballpark standing on the concourse in left field. That one was really fun. 00:14:10 Speaker 2: Yeah, he was fired up. 00:14:11 Speaker 1: And he's, like, spiking his bat. 00:14:12 Speaker 2: Yeah, fired up. Absolutely. Yeah, I mean, Canzone's a really, really good bat, but you're right. He doesn't, like, he doesn't play the type of defense at his peak that Robles plays. So, yeah, that's right. 00:14:25 Speaker 1: The last tiny bit of news is that the Mariners claimed an outfielder off of waivers from the Giants in Grant McRae. Pretty good athlete. Hasn't hit very much. Still pretty young. He'll be 26 next season. But it just kind of seems like he's going to be in AAA. 00:14:43 Speaker 2: Yeah. It feels like a depth move. And the Mariners usually, and every team usually... claim a few guys like this when the offseason starts. McCray's only played about 100 big league games. He's never really hit much. His career OPS plus in the big leagues is 58. Now again, that's only about 250 plate appearances, so it's not a huge sample size, but we did say the Mariners need to get much more athletic come 2027, and I don't think McCray's going to earn a spot on the big league roster at a camp, but it's nice to know that down in Tacoma, you'll have somebody who can really run. He's got a great arm. He actually walked a little bit this year. So there's something with Grant McRae that can provide some value. Maybe at some point he'll get a chance in the big leagues and they'll call him up in 27. But yeah, to know that they have somebody that's a really, really good athlete down in AAA, great. The Mariners need more good athletes on the team. 00:15:41 Speaker 1: Let's get into this mailbag now, Lyle, and a reminder to everybody as we get into it. If you want priority for mailbag episodes and you want your questions answered every single week, Patreon is the place to go. That's patreon.com slash marine layer pod that gets access, gets you access to add free episodes, mailbag priority, and a monthly video call with Lyle and I, which we did right before hopping on here with this podcast. So if you want to get on it next month, patreon.com slash marine layer pod. Let's start off with Ethan on Patreon. Ethan's question is, the Mariners need an impact outfield bat this offseason. How would Trevor Larnik or Stephen Kwan fit on the team? 00:16:21 Speaker 2: Dude, Stephen Kwan would be awesome. And he's only got a year of club control. He'll be a free agent after 2027. The Guardians, as we know, are 30th in the league in payroll. They do not pay a lot of their players. Man, if the Mariners could go get Stephen Kwan to be their left fielder, I'm sitting here thinking about this. Not only would that be such a nice fit to the team and balance out some of the strikeouts and also provide you some really, really quality defense in left field. I mean, he's won four gold gloves in a row. But does he not feel like a candidate who you could try and trade and then extend? 00:17:00 Speaker 1: Yes, to a point, because you're not trading for his offense, and you will need bats this offseason. Your offensive ceiling is not going to improve, I think, with Stephen Kwan. 00:17:11 Speaker 2: He can hit a little bit. 00:17:15 Speaker 1: I don't think he consistently does enough damage for that to be. 00:17:21 Speaker 1: As good as he is in the outfield to be like the acquisition of the offseason. 00:17:26 Speaker 2: Oh, I mean, you should still go get more bats. But again, the Mariners need to get more athletic and just have more value on the team. Stephen Kwan put up a 110 OPS plus this year. He started really slow. And then in the second half, he was one of the best hitters in baseball. He was awesome. And Stephen Kwan, he's been a model of consistency in his career. He's made two all-star games. I know he's another left-handed bat, but if... if we're under the assumption that there's going to be like, if we're under the assumption that Steven Kwan might be open to an extension and you could trade something for him and immediately extend a man, that would be awesome. 00:18:02 Speaker 1: He's got platoon splits. You mentioned him being a left-hander, but again, if you're not trading for him to be like a run producer in your lineup, then I don't think that matters as much. He also, even despite his platoon split still had a three 50 on base percentage versus lefties. So yeah, he might not slug, but he's still getting on base versus lefties, which I think is productive. Ultimately, if you have the opportunity to trade for a four-war player, you should. 00:18:27 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:18:28 Speaker 1: Because I think it'll make you better, and it makes you better in two areas you said you need to get better in, on the base paths and on defense as well. And I don't think he'd be that expensive because home runs are significantly more expensive than a guy who hits singles and walks. 00:18:47 Speaker 2: What do you think he'd cost? I don't know if we can put an exact trade package together but Michael Arroyo, I was going to say, does he cost you one of Laz or Arroyo? And then maybe one or two other lottery ticket prospects. And maybe, I mean, he only has one year, right? Right. 00:19:05 Speaker 1: That's all you have to pay for him. So I would say Michael Arroyo and a small prospect. That's it. 00:19:12 Speaker 2: I would be very, very interested in trading for Steven Kwan. Again, we say the Mariners need to make more contact, be more athletic, play better defense. Stephen Kwan does all of that. 00:19:24 Speaker 1: You would check almost every box of your offseason if you acquired Stephen Kwan via trade and then signed, say, a Suzuki. Right. That would be outstanding. Without, like, yeah, you need to sign a utility player, and that's probably it. Right. If you managed to nab those two outfielders, your defense would improve. You'd get that right-handed bat who does damage. You'd get an on-base guy who's good on the base paths and really good in the field. You just kind of feel like the floor of the team raise as you get better in multiple different areas with two guys right that'd be great i. 00:19:58 Speaker 2: Don't mean to be a wet blanket i just i have my doubts about the mariners signing say a suzuki i would love them to i just have my doubts. 00:20:06 Speaker 1: Sure uh trevor larnik for the other player that Ethan asked about. It's a similar story. He's got sharper platoon splits than Steven Kwan. He's not quite as good of a defender. There are qualities you would like. Like, look, the last three years combined, he has a 114 WRC plus with a 10% walk rate and a 20% strikeout rate. Hard to beat around how good that is. That's pretty solid. You have a lot of left-handed batters in this lineup, and he has rolled out left on left a 64 WRC +. That just seems like you're stacking duplicates of what you already have currently on your roster that you're trying to balance out a little bit. 00:20:51 Speaker 2: And he really, really did not play very good defense this past year. He had negative eight defensive runs saved. So another left-handed bat with heavy platoon splits, not playing great defense one year before free agency. This doesn't feel as seamless a fit. If the Mariners are trying to look a little bit different, both offensively and defensively in 2027, I like Trevor Larnik. I think he's a good player. I don't know if he exactly fits what the Mariners are looking for. 00:21:19 Speaker 1: No, I don't think so either. Next question comes from Elliot on Patreon. Elliot's question is, what are the Mariners' long-term plans at third base? 00:21:32 Speaker 2: So I'll... I'll list out three options here. One will be Zach Netto, who we've talked about a little bit. I think we'll dive more into Zach Netto as the offseason gets going. But either you could trade for Zach Netto and have him play short and you have Colt Emerson play third base for a couple years. You slide Colt Emerson over to third. That's one. The next option would be looking into Teruaki Sato from Japan. And that depends on how much you really think he can play third base. If they don't believe that he can really be a third baseman, then that's a tougher fit. Because the Mariners could really use somebody to just play third base. Brendan Donovan can then move around a lot. But we'll see what Sato demands in terms of a contract. We'll see if the Mariners like his fit with the team, if the strikeouts scare him away. There's a lot of factors there. I think they should be interested in Sato. I think they should be more than checking in on Sato. I think they should be engaged. But TBD on whether he puts pen to paper in Seattle. Third option, it's funny. We're going to bring up a third Oriole in like three weeks because the Orioles have so many infielders. But Blaise Alexander would be a little bit interesting because he's a right-handed bat, plays third base, can play some other positions too. He's played some outfield. He's played some second base, etc., He's got club control. The Orioles have other third basemen. Again, they have Jordan Westberg. They have Kobe Mayo. And he would give the Mariners some stability at third base. Those are three different options. It's probably, Blaze Alexander ranks lower than the other guys just because he's not as proven. But he's a good player. 00:23:13 Speaker 1: Those are all out-of-organization options. There is, of course, Brendan Donovan, who you could extend, and he plays third base full-time. Ace Reese could be your third baseman of the future. You just drafted him in the first round. Michael Arroyo can't play third base, but I will throw his name out there because he is technically an infielder, and he should be able to hit. Then there's a couple of the other names that you didn't mention. Jordan Westberg, I think, is higher up the list. If I were to guess, higher up the proverbial want list for the Mariners than Blaze Alexander would be. Kobe Mayo would also be on that list. Isak Paredes is someone you and I don't believe could hit in T-Mobile Park, but the Astros might sell this offseason. And he had a four-war season last year. We talked about Javier Sanoja from the Marlins, a bit more of a utility player. But again, if somehow he was available. Maybe you go out there and trying to acquire him or there could be a more unknown name. There are lots of options, but I'll tell you what, there's not one clear option. This is something the Mariners are going to have to figure out. I think they're going to look toward what the best fit is for the roster. For example, if we're going to go back to Steven Kwan, if they signed Steven Kwan to go play left field or sorry, trade for Steven Kwan to go play left field, then Brendan Donovan's probably going to play the majority of his time at third base. If they find there's a better fit for the team at third base, then you can have Donovan move around more. He plays some left field, plays some right field. Still will probably get some time at third base. Can give Cole DeYoung a few days off and play second base. I think it depends on the Mariners' best fit. And that is part of the benefit of having Brendan Donovan when healthy, is you can move him around a lot. But I think it's going to be more about what the Mariners... Like, who the Mariners truly go after, rather than.... 00:25:09 Speaker 2: Like, okay, we have to find a third baseman. Because you know at the very least that Donovan can go play third. 00:25:15 Speaker 1: And they might not acquire this third baseman of the future this offseason. Or like tab him as a third baseman of the future this offseason. If the case is Brendan Donovan or the case is Ace Reese. It would be nice if they did. But I don't think we'll have a clear idea. 00:25:30 Speaker 2: Sure. I think that's right. I was looking. Oh, Blaze Alexander had some interesting platoon splits last year. They're actually reverse. But the year before that, he hit lefties better than righties. He's still not got a huge sample size. So the book's still probably out on who he is as a hitter. 00:25:47 Speaker 1: Maybe it'll balance out in the future. 00:25:49 Speaker 2: Right. 00:25:50 Speaker 1: That'll make him easier to trade for if it is balanced. 00:25:53 Speaker 2: Agreed. 00:25:55 Speaker 1: Uh, Maxton on Patreon asks, there's been a large scale debate recently on social media platforms regarding baseball players versus cricket players and which sport is more difficult. That being said, if 2025 Cal Raleigh hypothetically swapped the torpedo bat for a cricket paddle, how many home runs does he hit? 00:26:18 Speaker 2: I don't know enough about cricket to say definitively, which is the tougher sport. Maybe if this lockout really drags out, we'll get into cricket. Who knows? 00:26:28 Speaker 1: I want, so I, I tried to do as much research as I could for this question. I watched the video from, I want to say I want to get their channel name, right? I think it's the bat bros. They hit on the field and bend. 00:26:41 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:26:42 Speaker 1: Oh yeah. That one. 00:26:43 Speaker 2: Well, yeah, they do great content. And also the one that always jumps out to me is, Anybody who played Little League around our time might be able to relate. I loved the Combats growing up. Like, I had one my 11- and 12-year-old year in Little League. I mean, they were cheat codes. They got outlawed very shortly after. Combats were like 100% composite bats, and you could hit the ball a country mile. They were doing a few videos with a Combat B1 at one point, and they were absolutely crushing the baseball. But yeah, I've seen the one you're talking about where they've hit with a cricket paddle, too. 00:27:16 Speaker 1: And you know what I noticed? When they were swinging with the cricket paddle, you definitely can make more contact with the cricket paddle. It's much wider. I'm not convinced you hit more home runs with a cricket paddle. Since it's flat, you're not going to get the consistent amount of backspin with the ball, which will hurt your carry. They were also getting, from what I could tell on average, about 10 miles an hour less of exit velocity with that thing. In a game, it might not matter. With big, beefy Cal Raleigh, it might not matter with how much strength he has at the plate. But I almost feel like it's easier to hit home runs with an actual bat than it is with a cricket paddle. 00:27:56 Speaker 2: I think it is easier. I think it is easier. Also, hitting a baseball with a cricket paddle would be pretty tough. If Cal Raleigh is using a cricket paddle, is he hitting with a cricket ball too? Or is it a baseball? No, it's a baseball. All right. I'll call it during his 60 home run season. 28 homers, 30 homers. 00:28:19 Speaker 1: Hmm. Not bad. I honestly have no, I'll go with your number. I also like what angle do you hold it? Hold it at. See, at least with a bat, it's perfectly round. A cricket paddle has a flat side to it. 00:28:32 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:28:33 Speaker 1: And you could like, you could tilt it up so you can get that back spin, but then you're almost slicing at the ball. Or if you hold it straight, like you really need to get under the ball. To hit it upwards. As opposed to a baseball bat, you just need to hit like the top half of your bat so you get that backspin. 00:28:51 Speaker 2: Right. 00:28:52 Speaker 1: Or you will obviously have the right angle and hit it straight on. Agreed. 00:28:56 Speaker 2: Agreed. Yeah, I'll say like 28 homers. But like I said, maybe we'll get into cricket at some point more. It does seem like a fun sport. I just never watched it that much. 00:29:06 Speaker 1: It's way more popular than baseball is. 00:29:08 Speaker 2: Oh, yeah. 00:29:09 Speaker 1: Significantly more popular. Right. Yeah. Ralph on Patreon asks, what do you guys think the Mariners specifically could learn from the Brewers after watching the World Series? 00:29:22 Speaker 2: There's a lot. I would say the one thing that jumps out to me the most that the Mariners could learn is you just cannot give away so many at-bats. The thing about the Brewers that stands out to me the most, those guys do not give away at bats. It feels like almost ever. And that's not to say they never strike out. Yeah, you're going to strike out. The Brewers don't strike out a ton, but every team strikes out. But they really don't give away at bats. They really have a sound approach. And the Mariners, unfortunately, look, this team is built to swing and miss a little bit. You can't overhaul that entirely. But you can do a better job of not giving away so many of that. And I think if that's a coaching thing, if that's a schematic thing as they move into 2027, that is something you can really watch the Brewers and say, we can do more of that. The Brewers approach at the plate gives off. power hitting team except they're not a power hitting team they hit the second fewest homers in baseball this year but you'd never know based on what they do at the plate that they don't chase and they walk a ton right that's like that's what the best power hitters in baseball do but they they do it and then they'll hit a single up the middle or they'll hit a double into the corner that part i think is it's uh it's different like they're finding as you like to say The best analytical teams find things that other teams aren't doing that provide value and use it to their advantage. 00:30:50 Speaker 1: And I think the Brewers meshed just this comprehensive offensive approach that was not based on power. And it really worked out. I also wrote down a few things. There are the obvious ones that we've talked about. Culture, communication, and accountability. You could not see it more on display today. than when you would see behind the scenes of how Pat Murphy interacted with his players. I think that is going to be the envy of everybody in Major League Baseball and how they work on that. I think another thing people can take away is understanding that the Mariners are really going to need to raise their floor if they're going to win a World Series. A team like the Brewers without unlimited resources and an unlimited payroll who got their president of baseball operations poached away from them three years ago for the Mets that just backed a truckload of money into him and took him away have been to the playoffs almost every single season since 2018 and tried to have a crack at a world series. Help me remember this correctly, Lyle. So in 2018, they trade for Christian Yelich. Uh, they win their division. Christian Yelich wins MVP. They beat the Rockies. Uh, they beat, yeah, they beat the Rockies in, um, The divisional round, and then they lose to the Dodgers in a heartbreaking seven game NLCS. 00:32:14 Speaker 2: Yeah, that was the game Chris Taylor made the crazy catch in center field. Yeah. 00:32:17 Speaker 1: Yeah. Then you have 2019. The Brewers are a wildcard team. They lose that game, that wildcard game in Washington where Trent Grisham flubbed the ball in right field. Lost there. 00:32:31 Speaker 2: 2020. 00:32:31 Speaker 1: Let me get a drink of water here. Uh-oh. 00:32:35 Speaker 2: Here, I'll stall. You drink water. 00:32:37 Speaker 1: No, you're good. I got it. 00:32:38 Speaker 2: I'm good. 00:32:39 Speaker 1: Okay, 2020. It's the COVID year. Down year for the Brewers. Not quite as good as they have been. They were the eighth seed, I want to say, in the National League. They get swept by the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs. 00:32:54 Speaker 2: 2021. 00:32:55 Speaker 1: I want to say they won their division. 00:32:57 Speaker 2: Yeah, they won 95 games that year. 00:33:01 Speaker 1: And lost. I forget to who, though. 00:33:03 Speaker 2: They lost in the NLDS that year to the Braves, who then won the World Series. 00:33:09 Speaker 1: Okay. Then 2022 rolls around. That was a down year for them, I believe. I think that's the year they traded Josh Hader. They missed the playoffs, but they still won 86 games. They didn't win 76 games like the Mariners. Right. 23, they got back to the playoffs, lost. 24. Yeah. What were you going to add? 00:33:30 Speaker 2: No, keep going. 00:33:32 Speaker 1: 24, made the playoffs, lost. 25, best season they probably could have had. They were the one seed. They played the Dodgers, and they got swept. Yeah. Heartbreaking. This year, finally, again, they made the playoffs again as the one seed, and this time they finally won the World Series. So that is what? One, 2018, 2019, 20, 21, 23, 24, 25, 26. Eight attempts with the regime they had. 00:34:05 Speaker 2: Eight of the last nine years, they've made the playoffs. 00:34:08 Speaker 1: They made the playoffs. And only in the eighth season did they win the World Series. 00:34:12 Speaker 2: Eight playoff appearances in nine years with a payroll that is much lower than the Mariners. And listen to these win totals by year since they've been in the playoffs. 00:34:19 Speaker 1: 96, 89. 00:34:20 Speaker 2: Okay, in 2020, they win 29 and 31, but that's a little bit of an outlier year. 2021, 95, then 86, 92, 93, 97, 103. That is a lot of bites at the apple the Brewers got before they won the World Series. The Mariners had a 20-year playoff drought and now have made it, what, twice? I mean, you can say twice in the last five years if you want, but if you were going to look at the tenure of this front office, it's twice in the last 10 years. 00:34:49 Speaker 1: Yeah. Got to give yourself more opportunities. If the World Series is the goal, the bar has to be raised. 00:34:58 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:34:59 Speaker 1: Jerry DePoto says about putting themselves in position to make the playoffs as many times as possible, and eventually you'll win the World Series because the playoffs can be pretty random. Sure, but it's not winning 54% of your games. You've got to win more than that. And I think the Brewers really have shown that because they have been to hell and back to win this title. And they finally got it done. So I think that's really important for the Mariners to understand. And think about that when they're hiring their manager and for ownership to think about when they're evaluating this front office. Because again, do you really want bites at the apple or do you just want to fill up the stadium? Like that's, that's the big question. Okay. I have one base, actual baseball one too. Okay. Like roster construction. It would be so nice to have an Aaron Ashby in your bullpen. This guy pitched in every single inning this year. This is my favorite stat. He pitched more than three outs 24 times during the regular season and did it eight of his nine appearances during the postseason. He does this while striking out over 30% of batters and walking about 10%. So the stuff is unbelievable, throwing in the upper 90s, striking out a ton of guys, being available literally whenever you're needed. And doing it at a fantastic rate. And he's literally the fire extinguisher for Pat Murphy whenever he needs something done. Like, is it the ninth inning and you need someone to come in after Trevor McGill? Done. Aaron Ashby's there. Do you need him to come in first out of the bullpen and throw two innings? Done. Aaron Ashby's there. I think it's a very useful piece to have in your bullpen. And it strays so far away from the rigid thinking on how you use your bullpen. and can really help you win games. 00:36:43 Speaker 2: I absolutely agree. I'd also like to counter and say, don't you think there's 30 teams out there that would like an Aaron Ashby in their bullpen? 00:36:51 Speaker 1: Great. But the Mariners should beat them all to the punch and get an Aaron Ashby. 00:36:57 Speaker 2: They should. And the closest thing the Mariners probably have to Aaron Ashby is Matt Brash. The difference there is Brash is a pivot guy, and when he's healthy, a very, very good pivot guy. But he doesn't usually throw multiple innings the way that Ashby has proven he can. To have a multi-inning reliever like that, I mean, it just does so much for your bullpen. So yes, bullpen might be the number one need of this team this offseason. That's a real possibility. Because we've seen how vital bullpens are in the postseason. So the Mariners need to figure out who can, even if you're not going to find a carbon copy of Aaron Ashby, who can be that type of guy for them? 00:37:37 Speaker 1: In Matt Prash's one full season, he pitched more than three outs 11 times, if you want to compare that to what Aaron Ashby did. Right. That'd be almost, that'd be more than double his previous amount of long appearances out of the bullpen. So that'd be nice. I don't know how they're going to replicate that, but they can find someone. 00:37:54 Speaker 2: Sure. 00:37:55 Speaker 1: Again, if the Mariners have too many starting pitchers this year and they really need someone like that, maybe they convert someone into that role. 00:38:04 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:38:04 Speaker 1: And that's how they go about it. Aaron Ashby, former starter. Yeah. 00:38:08 Speaker 2: I'm just counting right now. Like, I mean, I'm at 10 Ashby multi-inning outings. 00:38:15 Speaker 1: It was 24, 24, 24. I already got it. 00:38:18 Speaker 2: Yes. I mean, he does it all the time. If the Mariners could find somebody like that, that'd be amazing. 00:38:28 Speaker 1: Next question comes from John on Patreon. John's question is, so with the rumors of the Astros trading, potentially this offseason, some players off the roster, would you be interested in any of Jeremy Pena, Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, Isak Paredes, or Christian Walker? 00:38:47 Speaker 2: I mean, there's a lot of intrigue with a lot of those guys. If I were to pick one on that list, sticking on the topic of the bullpen, I would absolutely love to have Josh Hader. Now, you'd have to get Houston to eat some of the money on his contract. But if they'd agree to do that, you want to talk about improving a bullpen? Yeah, you have Josh Hader back there? That'd be awesome. 00:39:08 Speaker 1: And he wouldn't cost that much, I don't think. 00:39:12 Speaker 2: Well, again, are they going to eat some of his contract? 00:39:15 Speaker 1: Even still, I don't think a reliever over the age of 30 would cost that much. 00:39:21 Speaker 2: That could be. 00:39:23 Speaker 1: Or you can take on some of that salary. 00:39:27 Speaker 2: Sure. Yeah, you can. 00:39:29 Speaker 1: Otherwise, there's no fit for Christian Walker. Isak Paredes might not be a third baseman long-term, and I don't really believe he could be successful offensively in T-Mobile Park. Even if he was very productive last year, he was almost a four-war player. But I don't know if I'd go after him. If Jeremy Pena was available, I would be interested. If the goal is like winning in 2027, which I think it is, I'd be interested in Jeremy Pena. I don't think the Astros would be interested in trading Jeremy Pena to the Mariners unless they doubled up someone's package of what they were going to offer for him. 00:40:06 Speaker 2: And you have the understanding if you trade for Jeremy Pena, it's for one year because that's a Scott Boris client who's definitely going to get paid in free agency. So it's probably one year. Hayter and that contract, he's got two years left. Each of the next two years, he's going to make $ 19 million. If you could just get the Astros to take on a little bit of that money, if they would take five or six million bucks a year, that is incredibly intriguing. If you could hear you were going to have to pay $ 14 million a year, $ 13 million a year each of the next two years for Josh Hayter, I mean, I don't know how you're not at least intrigued. He's been one of the best relievers in baseball year after year after year. He just had nearly a three-win season by baseball reference this year. 00:40:50 Speaker 1: And that might cost you at most a Michael Arroyo, if not less. I truly think. I think you could get a pretty good deal on that one. The only guy I don't think is realistic at all is Hunter Brown. Hunter Brown has a lot of control left. And again, the Astros would just not trade him in division. Why would we trade? And the Mariners don't have room for him. So he, he cost and he cost a lot in a trade package. 00:41:12 Speaker 2: Hunter Brown. 00:41:13 Speaker 1: Yeah, he would. And for something you don't really need as much of doesn't make as much sense. Right. Uh, Emma on Patreon asks, saw you guys in a Peyton Tolley video on MLB or MLB network, whichever it is. How cool is Peyton Tolley? Would he be someone worth trading for? 00:41:31 Speaker 2: So it wasn't on MLB network. It's funny. We got this question, Kate Maniscalco, who we know who does baseball for baddies all over social media. Uh, had a video where she was talking to Peyton Tully. And it's funny, we got this video sent to us a few times basically saying, what are you guys doing? Why are you just standing in the background of this video? For context, we were talking to Peyton Tully for a couple minutes before she walked over. And once she walked over, we even sent her a message saying we did not mean to bomb this video, like our bad. But once they walked over, we didn't realize there all of a sudden was a bunch of cameras rolling. And once we did, we're like, oh, we're supposed to be out of this video. But there's a few seconds of that video where we don't realize that there's cameras rolling. And we're like, oh, let's move to the side. Anyway. 00:42:15 Speaker 1: It was a cool video. But like Lyle said, we were literally in the middle of a conversation. So all of a sudden, like we're talking and then, oh, bam, videos are rolling. It's like, oh. Right. 00:42:25 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I mean, we were all standing there and we thought we were all just kind of standing there talking. We didn't realize cameras were rolling. So, yeah, of course, we looked surprised or. kind of like space cadets. Cause we didn't realize we, again, we, we sent Kate a message after being like, yeah, our bad. Like we didn't realize cameras were on and she Kate's Kate's the best. She's awesome. She says, no, don't worry about it. Anyway, to answer your question, Emma Payton totally is exactly how he seems from afar. He is genuinely one of like the best dudes in major league baseball. He is incredibly friendly and, incredibly engaging, incredibly welcoming to everybody he talks to. He was out at tailgates before the World Series with Brewers fans. I mean, so we've gotten to do some bullpen banner content with him, and we saw the same thing from up close. I was like, oh, this guy is just awesome. And he really is. So if you think he seems really fun from afar, you'd be absolutely right, because he is how he seems from afar, like an incredible human being. 00:43:24 Speaker 1: I would absolutely trade for him. He'd be a great vibes guy to have on the Mariners. He's like so lighthearted. Right. Bring a smile on everyone's face. He is, as he seems, on the internet. 00:43:35 Speaker 2: Exactly. 00:43:35 Speaker 1: In those interviews you see, that is him. That's what you see. I would trade for him. He's also a really damn good pitcher too. 00:43:42 Speaker 2: Really, really good pitcher. 00:43:44 Speaker 1: And as we were talking about. And the Mariners don't have a ton of lefties. No. 00:43:47 Speaker 2: I mean, as we were talking about, like one day, and this is way down the road because Tully's got such a long, big league career in front of him. But yeah, he's definitely got the personality to be in media one day. And it seems like it might be something he wants to do one day. But in terms of the Mariners trading for him, I hate to be the bearer of bad news. As fun as it would be, I think the Red Sox would ask for a whole lot for Peyton Tolley. And I don't think the Mariners would give up the package. 00:44:12 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in 100% agreement with you. Yeah. Next question comes from Alex on Patreon. Alex's question is, here's an off-season hypothetical for you guys. You have to rebuild the Mariners and improve the lineup And the bullpen. But there's one rule. You can only use free agency or trades for one or the other. So if you choose trades for one, you can't choose trades for the other. So which one would you choose free agency for? And which one would you choose trades for? 00:44:42 Speaker 2: The optical logical route here is to use free agency for position players. So because of that, I will lean toward that. But man, there are some relievers on this market that I would love to sign. I will use the logical baseball front office answer and say, use your free agent token towards signing position players and trade for bullpen arms and find value where you can find it. 00:45:04 Speaker 1: I'm going to be boring and agree with you. 00:45:07 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:45:08 Speaker 1: I think there is better value to be found if you're going to pay for position players and you're going to trade for bullpen arms. 00:45:19 Speaker 2: Listen. There's a lot I would do to sign Adrian Morahone. Maybe I'll have to think of another Lyle pledge like I've done for Kyle Tucker and now like I've done for Bryce Harper. I would love, love, love to have Adrian Morahone in the Mariners' bullpen. Unfortunately, I think there's too many other position players who you need to optimize being in free agency and use your free agency token to sign. 00:45:43 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. The problem with trades, too, I feel like it's easier to trade relievers than... Force teams to trade their everyday players, because that is something else you have to consider where the other team also has to say yes. If you're like, well, we could really use like an everyday outfielder who hits both lefties and righties like, say, a Suzuki. Like, what would that cost in a trade? It seems like a lot. 00:46:05 Speaker 2: Right. Agreed. Yeah. I'll use the free agency token to sign position players. 00:46:12 Speaker 1: Last question comes from bmaskew11 on Instagram. And the question is, over under on when opening day 2027 will be? May 20th. 00:46:25 Speaker 2: We are more optimists with this, and you'll hear us talk about this. I actually think the season starts relatively on time. I think TJ's in the same boat. For those who don't know, there is a... Very, very, very large national TV contract that's about to kick in for Major League Baseball next year that is going to make both sides a whole lot of money to the point where I don't think either side is really going to want to leave any of that money on the table when it really comes up against the finish line. So I'm sure throughout December and January and February, there's going to be a lot of fear that's struck into a lot of fans. Neither side will budge. Neither side will get to the table and negotiate. Nobody will negotiate in good faith. I'm sure people are going to get, yeah, a little bit frightened of missing the season. And it's going to suck and it's going to not be fun. But I think they will actually come to an agreement sometime in March. Could it be 154 games instead of 162 games if they come to a deal too late to play all 162? Yeah, it's possible. but I actually think they're going to resolve this faster than people think. 00:47:29 Speaker 1: To answer your question, I'm going to say under, so before May 20th. The thing with the TV deal is this. The national TV deal for Major League Baseball expires, or there's an opt-out in two years after the 2028 season. If they don't fill 90% of the inventory in 2027, it automatically extends one year to 2029. So they would miss out on a year of a potentially re-upped national television deal, which could however many X the billions of dollars they're already getting from their national TV deals, which is very significant to both sides. So what the owners are essentially going to assess, because this is really in the owner's bucket. The owners say they want a salary cap. The player's for their entire time, have never wanted a salary cap. They missed the remainder of the 94 season to not get a salary cap. They've been very consistent in that. This is going to be on the owners answering. Do they think a salary cap is more valuable or getting to that national TV money in two years more valuable? Slash, sacrificing year of finances at the ballpark. Agreed. I think that's it. The players... Well, the players, if, if the salary caps, the thing, the players will miss the season. Right. And the owners don't budge. Like if both, if both sides won't move, then yeah, then there's not going to play games, but we're banking on someone caving once the threat of missing games is there. Right. 00:49:04 Speaker 2: And it could be both sides of cave and they meet in the middle somewhere. 00:49:07 Speaker 1: Well, players caved last time. Right. Yeah. 00:49:10 Speaker 2: We'll see. It's going to, We're going to have a lot of time to talk about all this, unfortunately. But as we sit right now, as we answer your question, I think it will be earlier than May 20th that they start playing. games. 00:49:21 Speaker 1: Gosh, I really hope so for the podcast's sake that they start. They don't miss too much time. We love having things to talk about with you guys. And if we have to go months and months and months with nothing, it's not something I'd prefer. 00:49:35 Speaker 2: No, and it's not something anybody would prefer. We want baseball to be played. We want to watch the Mariners. And we will find things to talk about. We're not going to stop podcasting for anybody wondering. Even through the lockout, we will find things to talk about because this is more than just talking about the Mariners at this point. Like, you know, we try to make this podcast feel like a real community. We want to connect with people. And just because there's not baseball, just because there's not baseball doesn't mean we're going to just stop podcasting. We'll find things. It'll just be a lot more fun if there's baseball being played. 00:50:02 Speaker 1: Absolutely agree. But official answer is under May 20th. Hopefully sometime in April. 00:50:07 Speaker 2: Definitely. 00:50:08 Speaker 1: Okay. 00:50:09 Speaker 2: Okay, well, good set of mailbag questions. Thank you guys as always for submitting them. You guys always have good questions for us. And if you want priority on mailbag questions, go sign up for our Patreon and you get priority every single week on these mailbags. With that, that'll just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full-form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure to download these episodes if you're listening. Please go rate and review and leave it five stars if you have the chance to do so. Hit subscribe if you're watching on YouTube. Also check out our website, which is marinelayerpod.com. You can find our merch. You can find our Patreon. You can find our episodes. It's all there. And then find us all across social media too, at marinelayerpod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.