Episode 483: Could The Mariners Pull Off One Of Their Biggest Trades Ever? (With Ryan Divish)

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number 483 of the Marine Layer podcast. We welcome on our friend and Seattle Times Mariners beat writer Ryan Divish to talk about the MLB GM meetings down in Vegas, the Mariners offseason plans, and when he thinks the 2027 MLB season will start. 00:00:15 Speaker 2: Just a reminder to you guys, make sure to leave this podcast a five-star review if you're listening, and go rate and review when you have the chance to do so. Hit subscribe if you're watching on YouTube. You can also check out our website, which is marinelayerpod.com. You can find all of our merch there, our Patreons there. And then go check us out all across social media at marinelayerpod. 00:00:35 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling. And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording here on Thursday afternoon, November 12th. Now that the GM meetings are in full swing, or they were in full swing, and all the information and rumors are out there, of course, this is the perfect opportunity to have Ryan Divish on to break down all of that. Because, you know, he is the best when it comes to Mariners' insight and information on what they could potentially do here in the next three weeks. 00:01:18 Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's been doing it forever and he knows so many people around the game. It really is incredible the way he covers the team because he really, as a beat writer, I think gives people a very, very good feel for what it feels like to be on that beat around the team on an everyday basis, which is what the great beat writers do. And obviously he likes to give us a hard time and we'll give him a hard time. plenty throughout the course of the season, about a million different things. But just when you talk about his actual work and the reporting he does, it really is incredible. And you hear it in his interviews. You hear it when he goes on podcasts, when he comes on with us, when he writes his articles. I mean, he just has such a knowledge of information and especially around a time where everybody's looking to find out what the Mariners are going to do next. That's why he's always the perfect person to talk to because he's got a lot of intel. 00:02:08 Speaker 1: So to hear some of that intel, we don't want to keep you guys any longer. Let's get you to that interview with Ryan Divish. All right. 00:02:16 Speaker 2: We're joined by our friend, Ryan Divish. You know him as the Mariners beat writer for the Seattle times, fresh off his trip to Vegas for the MLB GM meetings. Do I dare even ask how your time in Vegas was? 00:02:25 Speaker 3: I actually, uh, yeah, it was, it was good. I mean, um, it was, they're long days. That's for certain. 00:02:33 Speaker 4: And I went in with my, uh, I actually went a day early, a day or two early, so I could spend some time with my fiance because I don't get to go back to Montana quite as regularly this offseason. So, yeah, so we just carved out some time before the meeting started. 00:02:51 Speaker 1: Well, it seems like you did take full advantage of the days because we know there was confirmation you were up until 5 a.m. at least once. 00:02:58 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:02:58 Speaker 1: Was it more than once or just once? 00:03:00 Speaker 3: No, just once. Well, no, maybe, yeah, 5 a.m. 00:03:02 Speaker 1: Once. 00:03:03 Speaker 3: Yeah, that was the only day. 00:03:04 Speaker 1: So. 00:03:06 Speaker 2: Can you summarize what the GM meetings were like for anybody that obviously wasn't there or doesn't have a great picture of what it looks like, especially this year when it's more ramped up? 00:03:15 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:03:16 Speaker 4: So the GM meetings are just, they're a little, they're a lot less formal than the winter meetings where there's a bunch of scheduled things every day, whether it's availability with a manager, each manager availability with each general manager, plus the teams do separate things. You know, there's all these different events going on. You know, you have the lottery, the, the rule five draft, all these different things. And so many more people. Then you have the fact that the original winter meetings were more about the minor league side. It was a trade show and a job there for people to get jobs. And then MLB sort of took it over, made this extravaganza. But the GM meetings are a lot less formal. They do have one day where all the GMs from the American League and all the GMs from the National League do separate. They break like the American League. executives, I guess not always general managers, but some of the, like, cause the photo did it. So some of the presidents of baseball operations or whatever, they get in this big room and it's just kind of a free for all for media for. 00:04:16 Speaker 3: About an hour. 00:04:16 Speaker 4: And then the NL GMs come in after that and then another free for all. And then like, as you guys well know, um, like there's also just the opportunity people are walking around, everything like that. So I, um, yeah, so it was, it was, there was more people there this year than there normally is. And so I think that's part of it is, is because we know it's the last time all the GMs are going to be together. So the athletics and all their guys and Adam and I both went where as normally I would cover it. So it was, it was a little more ramped up, still pretty informal, informal in a lot of ways, but you know, it was still worth it given the amount of access you kind of get, you know, if you have, you know, if you have the right relationships and stuff, you can just kind of pull guys aside and talk to them for a second here or there. We talked to Jerry DePoto for over an hour and a half, I think, and then talked to Justin Hollander yesterday. 00:05:13 Speaker 1: So how much of the off season are the Mariners going to try and get done in the next three weeks? Cause I'd imagine there's not going to be much off season left once a CBA is eventually agreed upon. 00:05:25 Speaker 4: Yeah, I, I think they'd like, I'd, think they'd like to get it all done or most of it done i don't think they believe that's going to happen um but they'd like to at least get a couple you know maybe a signing or maybe a trade done before that if you recall i think adam wrote about it but a few years ago or we both wrote about a few years ago we um they had when the last lockout they had adam frazier was traded they acquired adam frazier from the padres they signed muñoz to an extension and then They also signed Robbie Ray to a six-year deal, and they were trying to finalize a signing with Trevor Story, but they never made it to the deadline, and then Story ultimately took a little, slightly less money, I think, to go to the Red Sox. But, yeah, so, I mean, if Jerry can do it, he would prefer to do it, but I don't know that it's all realistic, given the amount of stuff they're trying to do, that it's all going to happen before the deadline. 00:06:25 Speaker 1: But then in that off-season, when the CBO was eventually agreed upon, that's when they went and they traded for Geno and Jesse Winker in spring training. So, like, it is possible to have moves once spring training starts. I'd just probably say less likely. 00:06:39 Speaker 4: Oh, yeah, no, there'll still be moves because, like, I mean, you know, there was a ton of signings after the lockout last time, too, because there were a bunch of guys that didn't sign before the lockout. So, yeah, I mean, there'll still be opportunities to make moves. It's just you're already starting spring training because, if you recall... I mean, the day the lockout, you know, they reached an agreement, you know, they pulled the lockout out and guys started showing up like that very day. So, uh, you know, so then they're already starting to work, but yeah, that's, uh, that'll be a weird scenario, but they're trying to, um, they're trying to get it. They're trying to get like as much as they can done, but you know, a lot of that's out of their control because you're relying on, you know, somebody else in that too. 00:07:23 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the last lockout got done or it ended in early to the middle of March, back in 2022. 00:07:30 Speaker 3: March 10th. 00:07:31 Speaker 2: Yeah, March 10th. So hopefully that's when this one ends. I think obviously we're all sitting here being like nobody knows when it's really going to end. But if it ends in, I don't know, May, is there just going to be a few weeks period where, you know, guys are in limbo and trying to sign while spring training gets ramped up? 00:07:50 Speaker 4: Yeah, there were guys that didn't sign like two or three weeks into spring training. I think Jordan Montgomery and some of those guys waited a long time. So that could happen again. You know, it's just maybe it's the Boris clients or something like that. But I do think there are some guys that kind of saw what happened with those free agents and everything else. And they would look to sign before then. Others may wait. I mean, you know, the class isn't great. you know, and it's not like everybody's just waiting on Tarek Skubal to sign and then everybody else signs after that. Only a few people are in the Skubal bidding process. So like the other free agents, you know, there's, there's not necessarily that major timeline, even like with Randy, I wrote about it yesterday. Like there's only one, you know, if he wants to stay on the East coast or somewhere near the East coast and give him what he wants for a contract, there's only what four or five teams that are really capable or willing to do a deal like that. So, Yeah, I mean, it could get done. I think if Randy found the right team and the right money, he would get it done. But again, also, he has Boris as an agent, so you just never really know how that works. 00:08:58 Speaker 1: Here's a fun question that everyone likes to ask every offseason. What do you think the Mariners' budget is for adding? 00:09:05 Speaker 3: Um.... 00:09:09 Speaker 4: You know, that's a good question. Where, where did, do we remember where they finished at last year? One 70 or one 67. 00:09:14 Speaker 2: Yeah, it was, it was right in that one 65 to one 70 range. And we were doing some of the math on it and the math's not going to be perfect from what we did. Cause obviously there's our numbers that are eventually going to get included, but 15 and a half million off the books for Randy, 12 million off the books for JP. So that's 27 and a half right there just to get back to last year. 00:09:33 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:09:33 Speaker 4: You add some money with Munoz, right? Because his goes up a little bit. Um, Yeah, I mean, and then Castillo's money comes off, right? 00:09:42 Speaker 2: Right, yeah, yeah. 00:09:42 Speaker 3: So, you know, what is that, 40-some, 50-some million? 00:09:45 Speaker 4: You know, you're not paying the Robles extension either. Yeah, like, you would assume that even if it went up, even if their budget went up with the incremental inflation type of, you know, rate of inflation, it would be. 00:10:00 Speaker 3: would you say one 70? What did we say? One 68. 00:10:03 Speaker 1: It's late about one 70 is where they ended last year. Yeah. 00:10:07 Speaker 4: So you think at least increased by 10 million, um, it could increase more. It's hard to say, you know, like they had, they had plenty of bad, what, they had the most fans they've ever had since like 2002 last season. 00:10:23 Speaker 3: So they drew well, they made some money on that. 00:10:26 Speaker 4: Um, yeah, I would think that they would be in the one 75 to one 80. Like I haven't done the, the snooping around on the payroll budget as much as I normally do. 00:10:36 Speaker 3: Um, I know, I know Adam asked about it and stuff, but you know, I, I think. 00:10:40 Speaker 4: If they were, it would logically, they would be in the one 80 million, 180 million. But like, again, that, like you said, it takes in, um, arbitration also like they want to have money they don't want to tap all whatever they have in their budget before the season starts they need some mid-season money too in case you want to make additions so i don't know 175 180 i would think would be fair i mean maybe they go more than that they've never been over 175 i don't think ever right because i was that was the 15 year i believe or 16 year and i don't think they've or maybe it was the 18 one of those one of those years they were maybe it was 18, they were like $ 175 million, I believe. 00:11:17 Speaker 3: I don't think they've ever gone over that again. 00:11:19 Speaker 2: Yeah, that sounds right, because it was that deadline, right, where they wanted to add when they were winning, but the A's were starting to catch them, but that was the deadline where no more money was given, and they got Zach Duke and Cameron Maben and all those guys. 00:11:30 Speaker 3: Yeah, they had to go shop in the bargain bin. 00:11:33 Speaker 2: Right. 00:11:33 Speaker 4: So, yeah, I mean, like, just with players leaving and contracts coming off the book, they have some flexibility. I mean, Jerry mentioned that they have some payroll flexibility. I don't know if John Stanton's given them more flexibility or not, but You would think even minimal is still helpful, just given. 00:11:50 Speaker 3: What happened last year. 00:11:51 Speaker 4: And also, they're starting to see that the window for success could be closing a little bit with some of these guys reaching arbitration and getting more expensive. 00:12:01 Speaker 2: Sure. So let me ask you this. And for anybody that hasn't checked out everything you and Adam wrote this week from the GM meetings in Vegas, you can go check it out all at the Seattle Times. It's been awesome stuff. I do obviously want to ask about Seiya Suzuki, who's been the topic... around Mariners world this week for every good reason. And you guys talked about two different things in the articles you wrote. You guys mentioned that the Mariners are legitimately interested in them, but you guys also talked about, you don't know if the Mariners are truly going to feel comfortable giving out a $ 100 million contract, which say a Suzuki you would think would likely get. So my question is where does that leave them with say? 00:12:38 Speaker 4: No, I think they'll give them a hundred million. I think, I think they will. I mean, it's, be right around there. That's, I think that they know that that's where they have to go with it. Um, I mean, like essentially you're paying, I mean, I don't think he's going to get what Randy's asking for. I don't think you're asking for like, I don't think you're thinking you're going to give him 150 million, but I think they know that they probably have to. 00:13:00 Speaker 3: Get near that a hundred million dollar mark, if not more to get him. 00:13:03 Speaker 4: Um, you know, and, and I think that's, I think they're relatively comfortable with that given just kind of where they're at. 00:13:10 Speaker 3: Maybe they defer some money. Maybe they do something different. 00:13:13 Speaker 4: They haven't been that team, but yeah, I think they know that they have to get in that big water. The one thing they could do too is like if it's, you know, they could just bump up the AAV really high and then give them the three and like with an option for a four, I don't know, you know, like three years with a higher AAV, like 30 million a. 00:13:31 Speaker 3: Year at 90. 00:13:32 Speaker 4: And then like, you know, given an option for a fourth, you know, we don't really know what Suzuki wants to, does he want to do, does he want to be a player as long as possible? Or does he have a timeline and he's like, I'm ready to go back to Japan. So, um, you know, they recruited him. They had him here when he was hosted by his team and he had dinner with each row. I believe he, DePoto talked to him and his wife at the time and Hollander on a zoom call. So yeah, they, they tried the last time and, you know, didn't really work, but, I think they're a little bit more motivated to make it work this time, especially with the payroll aspect of it, because they know they, there isn't very many right-handed hitters on the free agent market. 00:14:15 Speaker 3: And that is one way to access it. 00:14:17 Speaker 4: It's money and it's not, you're giving up prospects and relying on another team to consummate the deal. 00:14:22 Speaker 1: Do you think he's the only player they would commit that kind of money to on the free agent market? 00:14:28 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not, I mean, are you guys seeing a $ 100 million player on the free agent market besides him and Randy? 00:14:38 Speaker 3: I mean. 00:14:38 Speaker 1: Unless they want to try for a pitcher. 00:14:41 Speaker 2: I was going to say. 00:14:42 Speaker 1: The pitcher's a different conversation. 00:14:43 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:14:44 Speaker 2: I'm not saying this is what the Mariners are going to do, but if you're asking me, I would get a little crazy for Morahone, to be honest, considering he's 28, but they may not do that. 00:14:52 Speaker 3: Oh, I think they're checking in on Morahone. 00:14:54 Speaker 2: Oh, are they? 00:14:55 Speaker 4: Yeah, they're going to check in on him. They, like, everybody, like, they know he's good. And the one thing that's kind of crazy is, like, because Randy's got the qualifying offer attached to him, you know, and he's going to get a, he's going to get over the 50 or $ 75 million total. 00:15:13 Speaker 3: Like they're going to get a comp pick after the first round. 00:15:16 Speaker 4: Whereas because they're a revenue sharing team, um, when they, if they were to go get a free agent, a qualifying offer, free agent, then they only, they only give up like a fourth round pick. So, So yeah, they'll look at more home. I don't, you know, it's crazy that he, I've never seen a reliever with a qualifying offer attached to him. 00:15:35 Speaker 3: It's pretty crazy, but that's how good he is. You know, do I think they're going to get him? 00:15:40 Speaker 4: I don't know, but they, they are going to check because they like him that much. 00:15:43 Speaker 3: I think everybody likes him. 00:15:46 Speaker 4: But yeah, I don't, I didn't see another hitter that I thought was like, Oh, that's a hundred million dollar player in the, in the free agent class. And I don't, you know, I don't, I don't know that they were, they're just willing to give out a hundred million to anybody. Like, I think it's like, okay, we like this guy because he fits, you know, because essentially like he's like a good hitter, like similar to Randy in a lot of ways, but a better defensive player. He's really, he was really kind of bad for a couple of years. Then he really worked on it and proved, and I talked to some people at the Cubs and it was just like, he was a good, he was a good defensive outfielder when he was in Japan and just kind of fell off and if they didn't know if it was confidence or what but he really worked at it and he improved a ton this year so yeah that's what i think that's one thing and i haven't completely wrote yet but like i don't know that the mariners like if free agent a and free agent b are similar but one is deficient defensively and the other one is of average or above average they're going to look to that guy as well like you know like like with randy they may be comparable and randy doesn't really want to side with the mariners or doesn't really want to come back but like If they have both, they're going to look at the defensive component and then be more aggressive on the guy with the defensive component while getting the offense. In the past few years, we've seen them take hitters with negligent defensive issues, and they knew it, but they wanted the hitting so bad, and DiPoto was adamant that they're not going to do that. They're not going to just give up defense for the hope of hitting. They want more complete players. 00:17:23 Speaker 2: I was going to ask you about say as defense specifically, because you talk to a lot of people, you know, a lot of people around the game, including scouts. And I was going to say, say as defensive numbers, the first few years in the big leagues were really, really rough, but all of a sudden this year, it just clicked in a big way. So much so that by defensive run saved, he was like one of the 10 best outfielders in baseball. So I was going to ask, do you think at least to some level, it sounds like you're saying yes, but do you think the change is real that he made defense? 00:17:50 Speaker 3: Yeah, I do. 00:17:50 Speaker 4: And I think the first couple of years too, he was a little, you know, you're playing in Wrigley, it's windy there. And also you have the brick wall, the Ivy, some of that stuff. I think it just made him a little hesitant, you know, and then, you know, I think just defense in some ways you can improve it just by focusing on it and getting better at it, which maybe the 2025 or the 2026 Mariners should have done a. 00:18:14 Speaker 3: Little bit more. 00:18:15 Speaker 4: But yeah, I think that's that from what I talked to scouts, it's just the reads were better. 00:18:21 Speaker 3: The jumps were better. 00:18:23 Speaker 4: The routes were better, the throwing was better, and it was all stuff that was intentional that he worked on and wanted to improve upon. 00:18:31 Speaker 1: I saw Adam tweet about this after his name was circulating around yesterday. I want to say his former teammates, Ian Happ, is out there on the free agent market. In the middle of the season, I thought the Mariners would be more interested in him as a free agent, but it sounds like they're not. What are the differences between those two players and why one is a fit and one isn't? Yeah. 00:18:50 Speaker 3: Cause they're like the same age, right? They're both 32. 00:18:53 Speaker 1: I believe they're the same age. 00:18:54 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:18:54 Speaker 1: And both are great outfield corner outfield defenders. Yeah. 00:18:58 Speaker 4: Um, like I, well, I wrote it, Adam tweeted, but I had read, I wrote it in on our story that they, he had not been on their target list that he wasn't a guy that they were targeting. So I don't, unless something had coming into the meetings or coming into the off season, they view him as a guy. Um, if you look at the peripheral, if you look, dig a little deeper one, his strikeout rate was gigantic this year. The batting average was down. The slug was kind of down at times. He couldn't hit, he couldn't hit right-handed. He couldn't hit left-handed pitching. All of his production came from the left side. And that's not what. 00:19:36 Speaker 3: The Mariners want. They want a right-handed hitter. They're just too, they're so lefty heavy. 00:19:40 Speaker 4: I know that Happ is a switch hitter, but he was essentially a platoon player the last six weeks of the season because he was so bad against left-handed pitching. Well, that doesn't fix what the Mariners need so that's why it's really not a fit the defense is a fit I think the makeup and like everything but also like Happ is Happ is an old 32 you know the way he plays and everything else like you can see his body starting to break down so I think in talking with some scouts and stuff around the game, they think there's real, the regression offensively was always sort of lurking. And then there's start, there's hints of defensive regression as well. Just like part of it is, is like you're playing a regal, it's shorter park. You can throw a little easier. It's just different. So I, that I never thought that I saw that and I'm not going to bag on JP Morosi's reporting or anything like that, but yeah, from anybody I talked to, even people with the mirrors, like Hap wasn't on that list of guys that they were really considering. 00:20:41 Speaker 3: But maybe that's changed. Maybe they saw something in him. 00:20:44 Speaker 4: Cause like, and that part of the interest could be as like, if they're looking to acquire maybe an infielder to fill their needs, that they're giving up some of their right field or their outfield talent. And Hap is a guy you wouldn't have to give, you know, a hundred million to, you probably only give them a three-year deal, you know, at 15 to 20 or 15 to 18 million. And maybe that's, they look at it, but I don't, That's a priority for him. He's not a priority guy. Go look at him. 00:21:10 Speaker 2: Okay, I'm glad you mentioned infielders, because one of the other names you guys wrote about this week was Gunnar Henderson. And it lined up right with one of the questions I wanted to ask you, which was, given how much is likely on the line for this team, this front office in 2027, and the emphasis on winning... Jerry and Justin haven't made that many trades over the years where they really shell out prospects. Like, for example, the Luis Castillo trade is the one. What are the odds this year with the emphasis on winning we see them get as aggressive on a trade as we've ever seen? And the two names I was going to throw at you were both Gunner and Elie de la Cruz. 00:21:46 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, like, they're going to check in on Gunner for certain. You know, the Elie stuff is weird, I guess. Like, he's giving them no signs. He's going to resign, so they have to be They have to look at it. 00:21:58 Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, I think that you got it right. 00:22:03 Speaker 4: You have to go look at it and see if these are two premier guys, short stops that you wouldn't otherwise have access to in any other normal situation and who would cost you 250 million on the free agent market. Then you go, I mean, and they both have club control left and you know, it's multiple years. And that's your, that's your kind of your window. So yeah, I, I know like, in years past when they've had a lot of, they've had a lot of conversations with the Orioles. Cause as Adam wrote, or I can't remember, we both, we were kind of comboing on so much stuff. Like they, they've had so many conversations with the Orioles because if you look at it, they match up the Orioles never have pitching. 00:22:44 Speaker 1: Right. 00:22:44 Speaker 4: And so they needed some pitchers and the Mariners had all this starting pitching and the Mariners like call, they like Colton Couser. 00:22:50 Speaker 3: They're like, they like Jordan Westberg. They're like all these different guys. And, you know, it just never happened. 00:22:58 Speaker 4: But, and when you're talking to them, they never really checked in on Gunner cause Gunner at that time was really unavailable. Like he was one of the premier shortstops in baseball. You know, those first couple of years, he was just crazy. I remember him hitting a ball opposite field at Camden yards and it went out when the defense was back and it was just a missile. So, um, yeah, they're going to check in. 00:23:21 Speaker 3: I don't know. 00:23:21 Speaker 4: I don't know what the, um, what the asking price is going to be. What would you think the asking price would be? 00:23:28 Speaker 2: I mean, if I had to guess what a gunner package would look like, just trying to think about it on the fly, do you think it looks something like one starter and a couple of good prospects and the lottery tickets, something like, I don't know, Kirby, Arroyo, Farmelo, and maybe some other prospect down in the system the Orioles like? Is it something like that? 00:23:48 Speaker 3: I think they. 00:23:50 Speaker 4: Asked for a pitcher, probably Kirby, And then they would ask for, they'd probably ask for a position player on the big league side or a reliever, an established reliever, plus two prospects, plus a lottery ticket. Like if you look at how bad they got beat, like how much they got back on the Rutschman deal, they're going to want way more than that. So that's why. I mean, they're going to ask for the world because they're not in a position where they have to trade him or want to trade him. 00:24:24 Speaker 3: They're in a position where they're listing to see if they can get the. 00:24:26 Speaker 4: Best possible offer, the yellow offer, and then if they don't get it, then they're fine with keeping them. It's not the same as some of these other teams who are looking to move because they have to. This is if we get the world or if we ask for the world and get it, then we'll make the move. The Marys have enough prospect capital, but I do think they'd want at least two major league pieces because they still probably think they can try and compete somehow. So maybe that may be where they draw the, that may be where it makes it difficult. Like if they, you know, they're going to ask for Sloan. They're always going to ask for Sloan or Cade, but they're definitely going to ask for Sloan. And then plus a major league pitcher besides that. 00:25:09 Speaker 3: And then you're, then you're giving up two. And then I don't know. I mean, that's the thing. Prospects are prospects, but. 00:25:14 Speaker 4: Gunnar Henderson is good. The one thing you do, you would say is like his numbers haven't been as good the last couple of years. So maybe, you know, the ask isn't quite as high, but. They always ask for a lot. 00:25:26 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:25:27 Speaker 2: Well, that's what I was going to follow up with, which was Gunnar has gone the other way a little bit over the last couple of years. Now, for what he's done in his career, a lot of guys would still take that in a heartbeat. But this past year, there was a lot of strikeouts and the average was down. Home runs weren't as high. Like, are the Orioles still going to get the value for him that they want? 00:25:48 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think so. Just because there's not that. I mean, like Gunnar Henderson is still really good. And, you know, and maybe these, you think that change of scenery, something else like that might help it. But yeah, I mean, like, I think they wouldn't, they wouldn't, they wouldn't do it if they didn't think they could get something really good. Like, again, like I said, they're not in a have to spot. You know, he has two years left. And so this is usually when the Rays trade their guys because they get too expensive in arbitration money. And Gunner is getting expensive in arbitration money. But like, um, Yeah, that's why they would do this, because they think they can get a lot for him, that somebody's willing to pay for it, because, like, you look around, there are a lot of teams that could use a good hitting shortstop, you know, and he's that. 00:26:37 Speaker 3: Same with Ellie. 00:26:38 Speaker 4: Ellie's probably even asking even more, because, like, Gunnar was, like, their main guy in that group, but there's that whole group of guys, you know, with the Orioles, you saw Jackson Holiday, too. 00:26:48 Speaker 3: Ellie is the whole team, basically. 00:26:50 Speaker 4: I mean, I guess they have Sal, you know, Sal Stewart and all that stuff, but, like, at least your star, you know, like say you were in a financially bad situation and Julio two years after Julio, you know, two or three years after Julio's last couple of years, not counting this year, but like a year ago after last season, what would you ask for Julio? If you had like, you're thinking about trading him. So that's like, that's the thing is like, how do you trade the face of your franchise? Like LA De La Cruz. 00:27:17 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:27:17 Speaker 2: I was going to ask you too, Ryan, because I know the Mariners are looking to get another infielder and likely on the left side of their infield. And also when listening to Jerry talk, I think they've made that clear. But they've also obviously talked a lot about Colt Emerson being a big core piece of this team. And obviously he is. He's on the contract. He's young. His potential is still through the roof. But are they talking about him like he's going to definitively get a spot on the big league roster to start the year? And I just wonder, because the last we heard of Colt, he was going to get sent down to the minor leagues only to find out he was playing through an injury and had to get wrist surgery, which is going to take out a lot of swinging throughout the off season. So like, is that set that they're going to have him in the big leagues to start the season? 00:27:59 Speaker 3: I think he's healthy and ready to go. Yeah. I don't know why they wouldn't. 00:28:03 Speaker 4: I think they believe that the struggles and stuff last year were due to the wrist and they didn't realize the extent of the wrist injury. And that's why they were, you know, they were setting him down because the lack of performance just to kind of give him a breather and see if they. 00:28:14 Speaker 3: Could get a reset and then bring him back up. 00:28:17 Speaker 4: But if they, you know, if they don't feel like the, um, they think that they feel like the wrist may have been a contributing factor in those struggles. So if he's healthy and performing, you know, I guess the only way he's not on the opening day roster is like, if he comes back, the wrist is bothering him or, you know, struggles in the spring because he hasn't had as much time to swing this off season, then, then maybe, but they're anticipating him, you know, being their starting shortstop, or I guess if they were to get like, say they traded for Gunnar Henderson and they would, you know, ostensibly move Colt to third where he's fine too. But yeah, they, They do need another infielder possibly capable of playing shortstop at a solid level, a right-handed hitter preferably. 00:29:00 Speaker 3: I think Adam posted a story today about it. 00:29:02 Speaker 4: But, yeah, I mean, they still believe he's part of their future and the immediate future too. So whether it's at shortstop or third base kind of remains to be seen about who they get in this offseason to supplement the left side of the infield because they want to improve the defense there. 00:29:20 Speaker 1: He's definitely going to be one who benefits from a delayed season, right? Because he's not going to be able to swing until March, if I remember that timeline correctly. 00:29:30 Speaker 4: He's going– I wrote it, I think, yesterday, but he's going to meet with the wrist specialist first thing next week, and it's– he gets cleared there, he can start taking light swings off a tee and then progressing into baseball activity. So, I mean, that would be somewhat ahead of schedule because they weren't anticipating that he could start swinging, you know, light swings or doing any sort of swinging until– uh january but like maybe he's out of schedule i don't know it just but they're hoping that you know with this this next. 00:30:06 Speaker 3: Mri and this next meeting with the the surgeon that you know. 00:30:11 Speaker 4: They'll have good news and he maybe can start more baseball activity who knows if it's swinging or if it's even just more grounders whatever but like he hasn't been doing much of anything right. 00:30:20 Speaker 1: Now the Mariners have to trade a starting pitcher this off season, right? Like it kind of, it feels like it's trending that way. 00:30:32 Speaker 4: Well, I guess you could piggyback a couple of guys or you could have a six man rotation and start the season. But yeah, I mean, you have eight guys essentially, you know, you have Logan Evans, who's a pretty competent major league starter who will be probably the rain years. 00:30:46 Speaker 3: Number one in Tacoma. 00:30:47 Speaker 4: I don't know if they'll put Sloan at triple a or if they'll leave him at double a to start the season just because it's a little more pitcher friendly. Um, but yeah, I mean, I, I would think they have to, you know, you had, you finished the season essentially with, with six guys and, you know, I don't think they want to start that with six again. So I would think unless, you know, cause it does seem like Kate is going to stick on the roster. 00:31:10 Speaker 3: I can't imagine, imagine him going back. 00:31:14 Speaker 2: Let me throw a scenario out at you while we're on this topic. Cause let's say they miss out on say a Suzuki, let's say he decides to sign elsewhere and We threw this idea out, not necessarily fully believing the Mariners will do this, but just sparking the conversation of how do you get necessary offense to upgrade a team in a roster that was 28th in runs scored last year. I mean, is there a world they think about dealing two of them if they get the bats back that they want? 00:31:40 Speaker 3: Yeah, I could see that. I could see that. 00:31:43 Speaker 4: I don't think they're keen on dealing one of their, you know, Kate or Ryan, but they could trade... No, they could trade George for somebody or they can, and then, you know, Emerson Hancock for somebody if they needed to. 00:31:55 Speaker 3: And, you know, that may, that may. 00:31:58 Speaker 4: Access you more, but like, you know, that's the, um, yeah, I don't think, I don't really rule any possibility out with the photo. I think they're in a position where they, they feel comfortable enough. Like, you know, if you, you went down, you went from eight to six, it hurts, but you also have some guys coming up and, um, you know, you can go out and get that kind of quad acer held. I'm sure Casey Lawrence would take a minor league sign and Jonathan Diaz will sign a minor league deal to come back to the Mariners. 00:32:26 Speaker 2: Sure. We even talked about the idea of with that scenario, if they trade two, could you go sign a starter if you're not getting the bats you want? I mean, we threw out the idea of throwing the money at somebody like Freddie Peralta, but if the Mariners don't like that, could you go and try and get Sonny Gray on a two-year deal or somebody like that? 00:32:44 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:32:44 Speaker 3: I mean, I guess you could, I guess that's a possibility. 00:32:48 Speaker 4: Go heavy into the run prevention aspect of it, but you know, like there's, you know, they'll find at least there's enough right-handed infielders. 00:32:57 Speaker 3: I think they'll find one. 00:32:58 Speaker 4: Um, one thing too is like, don't rule out like they're, um, the, the depth of their catching prospects because like Luke Stevenson will have people that really like him. 00:33:09 Speaker 3: They do already. 00:33:10 Speaker 4: And Boston Smith and even this Josh Karam guy, like they're, they have some real catching prospects, um, We saw last year that essentially Harry Ford got them Jose Ferrer. 00:33:21 Speaker 3: And I think, honestly, I think Luke will be. 00:33:24 Speaker 4: A better major league catcher in the long run than Harry. 00:33:29 Speaker 2: So one other thing, just on this topic. Obviously, you mentioned when we're talking about the idea of trading starters, you mentioned Kirby, you mentioned Hancock. Are they pretty out on the idea of trading Logan Gilbert? Because obviously he's got a year left. I'd imagine an extension is unlikely. Are they okay just kind of letting him play out his deal and at the worst taking the qualifying offer pick for him? 00:33:50 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so. 00:33:51 Speaker 4: I just think that trading Logan would be highly, highly unpopular in the clubhouse. And just he's such a leader. And I don't think they've totally given up hope on an extension. 00:34:02 Speaker 3: You know, they still. 00:34:03 Speaker 4: they still kind of try to have some discussions about it. I mean, if you're Logan, that'd be pretty hard to get to this point and not see where you're at. 00:34:11 Speaker 3: I was joking with Derek. It was funny. 00:34:13 Speaker 4: It was like Derek gold of the St. 00:34:16 Speaker 3: Louis Cardinals is like, well, they might get Logan Gilbert in the end. 00:34:18 Speaker 4: Cause that might be the guy that signals like their rebirth when they restart, you know, trying to go for it. So, um, yeah, I, I don't, I would be surprised. Like, And the one thing, too, is we haven't heard his name. I know Nightingale wrote it, but we haven't heard his name rumored. And I do think teams might value the two years of control more than just the one year. 00:34:40 Speaker 3: So I think he's going to be around. 00:34:43 Speaker 4: I don't expect him to go because he's just such an important part of the team. He sets the example for all their pitching in terms of how they want to be prepared and how serious you take it and everything like that. So I'd be surprised if they do it. 00:34:57 Speaker 1: What will change between the Mariners and angels from like a trade dialogue perspective now that Artie Moreno is not the owner of the team? 00:35:07 Speaker 4: Um, well, he's still the owner right now. Like that hasn't all been approved yet. I don't think in principle, they don't even have a GM right now. 00:35:15 Speaker 3: Like they don't. 00:35:16 Speaker 4: So like when the angels were at the GM meetings and they're asking John Mazalek, Hey, you know, how are you going to filter their base? 00:35:24 Speaker 3: He's like, well, I don't know. It's going to be up to the other guy. You know, I'm not the one calling the shots. 00:35:27 Speaker 4: So, um, yeah, I do think it may, obviously it makes it more of a possibility that they could trade for him, trade for like Zach Netto, I guess, or somebody like that. 00:35:37 Speaker 3: It is, it's out, you know, before with, with Artie and Jerry's history. 00:35:41 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:35:41 Speaker 3: It was never going to happen. 00:35:43 Speaker 4: So this is the, this is the one time I guess they did trade. Was it, did they get, no, it wasn't Mike Ford. It was somebody else, but yeah, I think they could make that happen. 00:35:53 Speaker 1: So maybe not this offseason, then. It would need to be a different offseason, given Jerry's still in charge of the Mariners by then. I would assume Ari would still have say right now. 00:36:04 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know how the dynamics of it work. 00:36:07 Speaker 4: Because the money and everything is still going to change. 00:36:13 Speaker 3: That ownership group bought the Angels.... 00:36:17 Speaker 4: The radio station that carries the Angels. They bought that already so they can start, you know, having that influence. So, I mean, it's pretty much a dumb deal. So maybe they would have some influence on that and tell the GM, hey, look, we're part of this hiring process. You do whatever you think it takes to make this team better. And if Artie's pissed because you make a trade with the Mariners, so be it. 00:36:38 Speaker 2: I'm going to ask one question. kind of niche question. Cause I'm sure this is, you're not going down to the GM meetings to talk about these guys, but it is a couple of players TJ and I have talked about. Cause we are just like beyond adamant. This team has to improve their bench next year. Cause they got beyond nothing from it in 26. Like, do you think there'll be in the Mauricio Dubon at Mundo Sosa markets at all for two guys that could be really good bench players? 00:37:03 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm sure they'll check in. It sounds like Dubon wants to go back to Houston. He prefers, he wants, I think he lives there. He wants to go back to Houston and, I mean, I talked to Chandler Rome about it as well, and he said that, like, that's kind of Dubon's focus, and they want him back. 00:37:19 Speaker 3: So, yeah, they'll check in on him. 00:37:22 Speaker 4: I mean, he fits what they want to do in a lot of ways as a bench player, so it's the same way. 00:37:27 Speaker 3: I mean, it was funny. 00:37:30 Speaker 4: They really tried hard to upgrade, like, their bench role by getting Ezekiel Duran from the Rangers, and the Rangers just weren't going to do it. They were asking for a lot, and they just weren't interested. trading one of their better role player or bench players. Cause he's super versatile and he's actually pretty good for them. They don't want to trade him. And they certainly didn't want to trade him to a divisional opponent. So some of that thinking of trading within the division still exists. So I do think like last year wasn't ideal with what they wanted to do. Like it wasn't their, their plan to have Connor Joe play as many games or, you know, but you look around, there wasn't a whole lot down there. They, the wave of prospects, like, Arroyo didn't have a position. He was limited defensively. Laz was, you know, obviously still, like, you don't really know what he is. But you didn't have any, you know, you had Colt, basically. You didn't have any of those good prospects that were at the AAA level that you felt like, okay, these are guys that can come in and influence it. Instead, when guys got hurt, especially Donovan, then you're just rolling out, you know, guys that are going to be good for the immaculate grid in years to come. You know, Weston Wilson, Buddy Kennedy. I'm trying to think of what else. And Rivas was bad. And so that wasn't, you know, ideal. But, you know, I think there are bench guys out there that are a lot more viable that make you better. And they do crave versatility because you want to have some flexibility to move guys around and do different things. 00:38:57 Speaker 2: Let me follow up on one thing you said. When the Mariners were in on Ezekiel Duran, is this a couple years ago or is this really recently? Because last year he popped off. 00:39:06 Speaker 4: Yeah it was before last season they tried to get him and they tried to get him and they tried to get him during the when they made the run they were trying to get at that deadline and then in the offseason going into this season and just like you know they didn't want to do it you know and so and i mean they just thought they liked that he was that he could do different things he was caught he was good defender you know bit their hand to that they wanted everything else and they just Rangers weren't really interested and that was kind of one of their main targets. 00:39:36 Speaker 1: I have two more things for you Ryan number one do you think there is going to be a trade market for prospects this offseason. 00:39:45 Speaker 4: Um Yeah, I think so. I, you know, there are still some teams that are in kind of the rebuild mode. 00:39:54 Speaker 3: Some teams that, what is it? The buying and selling type of deal. 00:39:58 Speaker 4: There'll be some, I mean, like, but you're still, cause there are a lot of times like prospects are the sweeteners. 00:40:06 Speaker 3: It's not like. 00:40:08 Speaker 4: The A's or trading to rise or any of those guys, like the elite top 15, probably not. But some of the top 100 guys can move because it's like, if a team's trying to, especially if you're close, big league ready, you can make that work. 00:40:23 Speaker 3: But I don't know. 00:40:24 Speaker 4: To me, the Mariners, that's the only thing about the Mariners' prospects is Sloan is big league ready. 00:40:30 Speaker 3: Or close to it. You have Cade's already in the big leagues. 00:40:33 Speaker 4: Arroyo's been in the big leagues. Laz, I mean, where do you rate them? And both Laz and Arroyo have their flaws. So I don't know that the Mariners have the aircraft carrier prospect behind Sloan that really attracts somebody to make a deal in that way. 00:40:49 Speaker 1: And then last thing from me, given that you get to talk to a lot of high-up people in Major League Baseball, do you have a prediction on the season starting before or after June 1st? 00:41:04 Speaker 4: Oh, I think before. I think it'll start before May, honestly. I don't think they want to lose that many games. 00:41:09 Speaker 3: It's money. You're losing money when you do that. Both sides. I don't know. 00:41:16 Speaker 4: if they'll, you know, I don't know what they'll do to, to kind of get past that. I thought people are buying into a lot of the, the proposals are being released to the media. It's super posturing. It's like, you know, asking for a lot. It's easy for them. Like people are talking about the salary floor and the salary ceiling and all. So the salary floor, that's not just pure payroll. That's, that's all of it. The pensions, the, all the benefits, everything that all goes into it. It's not just, your pay your major league payroll that's not how it works so people just think that and so and and you don't like the floor you can be within 10 million dollars of the floor and then you're not penalized if you read the fine print and it's easy to sit there and say you're going to have 170 million dollar floor if you know that players are never going to agree to the cap at 240 right you can say oh yeah we'll give you a floor you have to agree to a cap but you can say that because the players never agree to the cap so it's easy to make yourself look better by saying that, you know, I wonder at this point, if the owners are completely unified on, on that kind of idea. 00:42:21 Speaker 3: Cause I mean, if you're the. 00:42:21 Speaker 4: Marlins or the Rays or the A's or Royals or whatever, do you want that floor? Can you operate on that salary floor? So I don't know. I, I, I would think, I think it'll be similar to the last time. And something will get done around middle of March and then there'll be delayed or delay it by two weeks and then try and force it all in. But yeah, I do think similar to last time too, though, is that the rank and file players that aren't the elite of the elite are more concerned about the immediate than the overarching idea that there's never been a salary cap. So we can't ever let one happen because those guys aren't ever going to be you know, they'll be affected by it just given, but like they're, they're just worried about minimums. 00:43:09 Speaker 3: You know, how do I make money? 00:43:11 Speaker 4: How do I get enough so that like, you know, you can live comfortably after your playing career is done, especially when the, the mid-level guy or the lower level guys are the guys that kind of skirt the borderline between AAA and the big leagues all just want to have some sustainability in what can be a largely a pretty short career. 00:43:32 Speaker 2: Fascinating. Well, hopefully you're right, and hopefully the season gets started on time for everybody's sake because, yeah, missed games would be brutal. 00:43:39 Speaker 3: I mean, it wouldn't be, it just would be pretty bad. 00:43:42 Speaker 4: It's a bad look for baseball at a time where it's starting to get better, and I think the game's starting to grow a little bit. I mean, obviously here in Seattle, the popularity with the Mariners is better than ever. I think that's why we see so much anger, too, when they fail, is because they've gotten so popular. Again, you have likable players, you get within a game of the world series and all this stuff. And then, you know, this year, and then you see the anger and everything like that's, that means that people care, you know, it's like, that's what you want. You don't want indifference. So it would be bad if that happened. Cause I do think like it, it, it's a bad look for baseball and for the players. 00:44:19 Speaker 2: No doubt. Ryan, great stuff. Always love having you on. Appreciate all the insight and I'm sure we'll talk to you soon. 00:44:25 Speaker 3: All right. See you guys. 00:44:32 Speaker 2: Well, that's exactly why we always love to have Divish on, because there's a lot to take away from those 40 or so minutes talking to him. We appreciate all the time he gave us, of course. Biggest thing that jumped out to you? 00:44:43 Speaker 1: That Colt Emerson's going to be back. And it sounds like there's a lot of confidence that Colt Emerson will be back. I mean, it sounds like he could be swinging this month. Like, not full swinging, but at least partially swinging. That's a positive. That's a good thing for Mariners fans to hear. 00:44:59 Speaker 2: That's great, and I hope Divish is right when he says the reason the Mariners were going to send him down originally was just to give him a bit of a reset rather than it was really performance-related issues that they were worried about long-term. No, I mean, it sounds like, and let's hope they're right, they really do believe that it was the injury severely hampering Colt Emerson's rookie season and that if he's healthy... they should expect a lot of them in 2027. Cause yeah, I did think there was a world where, yeah, maybe Colt doesn't start the year on the roster. And that's why you signed. I mean, it's one of many reasons you signed somebody like Edmundo Sosa, who for three weeks, he had to play some third base. He could do it or play shortstop. He could do it. But if Colt's going to be ready and let's hope he is great. And let's hope that's more of a normal first full season for him, where if you get the best out of them, that's a lot for the team. 00:45:51 Speaker 1: Ready and healthy. 00:45:53 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:45:54 Speaker 1: Yeah, which is a very important part. Like, if he swings here in November and in December, but then in January his hand's hurting him again, then that's an issue. So, like, we still want Colt to take his time and make sure he's fully healthy, but it does sound like he's on track to be healthy, which is very important. Do you know what else that also tells me? Because I could hear this talking to Divish today and hearing Adam Judon with Brock and Salk on Wednesday. I don't think they want Brendan Donovan– playing anywhere near a full-time amount on the infield. 00:46:26 Speaker 2: Well, it wasn't a pretty 40 games at third base. Obviously, he only got 40 games, but the results when you look at the defensive metrics on Brendan Donovan last year were, it was a tough watch at a. 00:46:37 Speaker 1: Lot of points. There's never been like a thought uttered that it's okay if Colt takes his time because we have Brendan Donovan. And I think that's telling. 00:46:49 Speaker 2: But that's fine. 00:46:49 Speaker 1: I would rather Brendan Donovan play somewhere where he can be more valuable and more useful than playing somewhere he's not comfortable playing. So I think that's a positive. 00:46:58 Speaker 2: Well, and that somewhere is everywhere. Because that was the idea of Donovan when you acquired him. Not to just play third base. It's, all right, on Tuesday he'll play third base. On Wednesday he'll play left field. On Friday he'll play right field. On Saturday maybe he'll go back to third base. On Sunday if Cole Young needs a day off, he'll play second base. That was the whole idea. Obviously, third base was their gaping hole last year, and they wanted Donovan to fill most of that and hope he'd just adjust to the position a little better, because he hadn't played a ton of games at third base before last year. Some, but not a ton. Where now, I think they are pretty set on no. We want him moving around. 00:47:34 Speaker 1: The other thing I picked up on was potentially trading for Ezekiel Duran. It didn't go anywhere, clearly, but the Mariners had their eye on him, and I mean, this would have been... Like, in the moment, a trade that would have been heavily criticized, but after the season, the Mariners probably would have been lauded for pulling off a trade for a four-win player who would have been, I mean, literally perfect for what they needed this past season. 00:48:00 Speaker 2: Right-handed bat, good athlete, good defender, plays everywhere. Yeah. 00:48:04 Speaker 3: Yes. 00:48:05 Speaker 1: At 27 years old, yeah. That would have been really nice. 00:48:09 Speaker 2: If they had traded for Zeke, if they had gotten Ezekiel Duran, you probably don't have to worry all that much about The Edmundo Sosa's and Mauricio Dubon's of the world, because if you have Donovan moving around and then you have Duran moving around, that's what you want. I mean, yeah, if the Mariners had made that trade for Duran last winter, I'm sure people on Mariners Twitter would have said to essentially disband the franchise. And then Duran came out as a four win player. 00:48:34 Speaker 1: It would have just been a whatever. 00:48:35 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:48:36 Speaker 1: It would have been, okay, this isn't going to move the needle for me that much. 00:48:39 Speaker 2: Well, you know how Mariners fans are on social media. And we love all our listeners. We love all the Mariners fans we interact with. But you know how some of these fans can be. 00:48:46 Speaker 1: You know, I think we would have reacted the same way, though. 00:48:49 Speaker 3: Probably. 00:48:50 Speaker 2: But, no, I think we would have reacted and said, okay, it's a depth piece. He can be on the bench. There's other people that will see that move and, like, say, disband the franchise. 00:48:59 Speaker 1: Because he had a 62 OPS plus in 2025. It would just be hard for us to get excited about that. It's like, all right, he– He's versatile, but what is he really going to do? And it's like, oh, well, he actually can do a little bit. And the Rangers clearly saw that, and that's why they didn't want to trade him to the Mariners. 00:49:16 Speaker 3: Right. 00:49:17 Speaker 1: Here's a question I have coming out of this interview with Divish. I'm curious how they're going to go about addressing their bench if they don't get Edmundo Sosa. If what he says about Dubon comes true and he goes back to Houston, then what? I don't know. 00:49:34 Speaker 2: So it sounds to me like if Dubon, and I don't know if he's only going to listen to offers in Houston. Maybe like, maybe that's really where he wants to be. But if he goes back to Houston, yeah, they better be ready to go pretty hard after Edmundo Sosa. But yeah, you're right. If they don't get him, they better identify some other bench pieces that are right-handed hitters and good athletes that can help this team. Cause again, I will not watch any more Weston Wilson. Well, I guess he's not in the org now, but again, like Like, I ain't watching any more of that. Like, you cannot have a beyond atrocity of a bench because that's what it was last year. And I know, again, that wasn't originally their plan. But there's a difference between having backup options as bench players that aren't like that aren't big league stars or certainly like even like, you know. big league like star bench players let's call it like that there's a difference between not having star bench players and having weston wilson play 54 games there's got to be something in the middle there has got to be some quad a players or guys at the bottom of some of some other mlb rosters who the mariners could trade for where they say okay he's not a perfect player but at least he can run and he can play a couple defensive spots something like that rather than weston wilson who can't hit can't field can't run struck out a ton didn't hit lefties it's like well. 00:50:53 Speaker 1: What are you doing here It's a great question. 00:50:56 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:50:57 Speaker 2: So it is going to be, but you're right. The Dubon thing I think is noteworthy too. So if he really isn't going to listen to offers in Seattle, the Mariners better, better be ready to go after Sosa or yeah, they're going to have a very, they're going to have a very like interesting situation for how to figure out their bench. 00:51:14 Speaker 1: They'll have to trade for someone. I'm sure. Yeah. 00:51:17 Speaker 2: Yeah, they will try to think if there's anything else, you know, we didn't really ask Divish this. Do you think the Mariners see a real opportunity cost here with Seiya Suzuki too? Not just the player because he's one of the best right-handed hitters in baseball, but do you think the Mariners ownership sees a chance to essentially tap back into the Japanese market a little bit too with Seiya? And if you sign him, you say to yourself, oh yeah, he could bring in some real dollars for us along with him being a good player. He's not going to do what Shohei does, but he could do something. 00:51:51 Speaker 1: Probably. There's a little bit of that from the business perspective. There also might be an opportunity cost from a baseball value standpoint, where what's it going to cost us if we don't sign, say, a Suzuki? 00:52:04 Speaker 2: Sure. 00:52:04 Speaker 1: Is it going to cost us a starting pitcher we'd rather have in the rotation this year, i.e. Logan Gilbert, which Divish pretty much shot down that he didn't think Logan was going to get traded. But until Logan Gilbert starts, presumably on opening day, I'm going to always believe he's an option for a trade. especially if a guy like Steven Kwan is available on the other side. But what is it going to cost the Mariners baseball people if they don't sign, say, a Suzuki? The biggest thing, Lyle, is their jobs, right? Yeah. So you realize you've got to nail this if that's who you really want and you think he's the best fit. 00:52:39 Speaker 2: Correct. Oh, we're talking about noteworthy things Divas said. Maybe this one flew under the radar, but I was very curious to ask him about this, especially since Divish has so many relationships with scouts across the game. The fact they think the defensive upgrades Seah made are real is very noteworthy in my book. Because we saw Luis Arise this past year have four good months of somehow elite defense in San Francisco, and I was like, what the hell is going on? This guy's never played good defense in his life, and now all of a sudden... He's looking like he has the chance to win a gold glove, and I'm not kidding. For anybody who thinks that sounds crazy, the metrics back that up through four months on a rise. But then he went to Philly, and he kind of went back to being the defender that he's normally been in his career. And I couldn't help but wonder if this one year of Seah's defense in the outfield, which spit out really, really productive numbers, was a fluke. But Divish seems to think, no, it's not a fluke. And if that's the case, well, that's a really big deal. Because the ideal with Seiya was always going to be, you're going to get a really good bat and you just sort of accept the defense. But if you're going to get a really good bat who plays very, very quality left field defense, I think that makes it a whole different conversation. You should be going even harder after Seiya Suzuki if you believe in the defense. 00:53:53 Speaker 1: And that might be why they're willing to spend $ 100 million. Like that's the player they're willing to spend $ 100 million on. If the bidding war for the other players gets to $ 100 million, it's like, meh, probably not worth it. But for Seiya, they might think so. It sounds like Seiya is on a bit of a pedestal for the Mariners this offseason, for free agents, which I don't think happens very often. 00:54:16 Speaker 2: They usually don't. And again, there's others that should have been on pedestals. 00:54:21 Speaker 3: Shohei. Shohei. I mean. 00:54:23 Speaker 2: Honestly, we probably didn't talk about it enough last offseason. Maybe Pete Alonzo should have been on much more of a pedestal. I get the focus was always on Naylor, but the focus was always on Naylor because everybody knew Pete wasn't even going to be a thought for the Mariners. Well, maybe he should have been on a pedestal, too. Anyway, there's other guys that should have been on pedestals in the past. I'm not saying you have to pay Xander Bogart's $ 280 million, but. 00:54:46 Speaker 2: If the Mariners are finally deciding, okay, this is who we're going to go hard after. This is who we'll shell out the money for. We won't do it for anybody, but we'll do it for him. Great. Great. Because they need, say, a Suzuki, man. 00:54:59 Speaker 1: It checks every box. Pretty much everything you want. 00:55:02 Speaker 2: Yes. 00:55:03 Speaker 1: Yes. I understand why. 00:55:04 Speaker 2: Yes, it does. But again, I'll ask the same question I asked on Monday. When this becomes a bidding war... Because it will. Any good agent of any free agent period, but especially a marquee free agent, leverages teams against each other to try to drive up the asking price to get the most money. When this becomes a bidding war, are the Mariners going to bow out like they usually do? Or are they going to get serious? I hope the answer is they're going to get serious. 00:55:32 Speaker 1: Yeah. I hope they're serious. 00:55:35 Speaker 3: Yes, I do. 00:55:36 Speaker 1: The baseball people will be serious because they know what's on the line. Will everyone else be on the line? And I also, I didn't get to ask Divish this, but it makes more sense given the answer he gave us at the end of the podcast where I asked him when he thinks the season starts and he seems to sound like it's going to maybe get delayed like a week or two and that's it, which would be amazing. That would be honestly incredible. I would be so happy if that's the case. Or I was going to ask him if teams like the Mariners would find the need to spend more given what the proposed floor of these salary cap negotiations would be. Like if they had to spend more money just to get up to the floor. But I don't think so. I don't think the Mariners would think that. But regardless of what they need to do or not, Seiya Suzuki should be signed. 00:56:26 Speaker 2: Correct. If you want to spend 60 seconds on that too before we wrap up, I didn't realize, and this is why you talk to Divish and why you talk to smart people across the game. I didn't realize that these player pensions, especially like post-career, factor into these salary floors, right? Because that's what pensions are, post-career. Probably caps too, yeah. Even still. 00:56:46 Speaker 1: Probably the cap and the... Yes, so the post-career pensions and insurance factor into the cap. But I will say it's probably a much smaller number compared to the big league salaries. Because a pension... A pension for these players, I believe, if I remember correctly, is only, gosh, Trevor May told us this, I think, last year. I think it's $ 200, 000 a year. 00:57:09 Speaker 2: Okay, but regardless. 00:57:10 Speaker 1: After they're 55. But that's only, that adds maybe a million dollars. 00:57:15 Speaker 2: Well, whatever it is. 00:57:18 Speaker 1: Or more than a million dollars, sorry. But you get what I'm saying. 00:57:22 Speaker 2: Divish said pension's one of many things that's built into the floor. And if that's the case, and it's not payroll alone, again, like, This is just another example of these owners being totally unserious and caring about absolutely nothing except their own pockets. 00:57:34 Speaker 1: Because the proposals both sides are putting out right now, to be fair, we've only really seen the owners' proposals. They're not real proposals. There's no reason to agree to anything right now. 00:57:44 Speaker 2: No. 00:57:46 Speaker 1: Because there's no pressure on either side to concede anything. No. So why would they offer something serious? 00:57:52 Speaker 2: And we're going to talk about that. 00:57:54 Speaker 1: We'll see a real owner's offer on, like, February 21st. 00:57:58 Speaker 2: Correct. And we'll talk about this more when the offseason starts. But, like, well, one, these are unserious proposals. But two, get serious. You know what teams, you know what leagues with caps have when they have a floor, like the NFL? The floor is 90 freaking percent of the cap, man. This idea that the owners are putting out there is if, oh, look at the high floor we're going to give the players, when in reality, that's not even close to like 90% of the cap. Again, get serious. 00:58:26 Speaker 1: Again, this is why I just don't think you look too much into these proposals. That's not what it's going to be. 00:58:33 Speaker 2: And because of that, I'm going to stand 10 does down on the belief that I've had this whole time and will continue to have, and it is that the 30 owners in Major League Baseball do not care about you. And when I say you, I mean all of you, every fan. They don't. They care about putting more money in their own pockets because 30 billionaires have said to themselves, you know what? We're actually not rich enough. We have a billion dollar net worth and we're not rich enough. So we're going to stop baseball from being played. Players aren't striking. This is a stop baseball from being played on the owner's side because we're we in our minds think yeah we're not rich enough we don't we don't actually again and they don't care about competitive balance either if you think they do you're wrong you can want a cap but if you think these owners are actually in it for competitive balance like get real this is about them putting money in their own pockets. 00:59:25 Speaker 1: Yeah totally agree yeah nothing to dispute there but otherwise good stuff. Good, uh, good stuff from Divish. Lots of, lots of good insight that hopefully will, some of that will come to fruition here in the next few weeks. 00:59:38 Speaker 2: Definitely. Hopefully soon. I want some moves to talk about, man. I do. All right. That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine layer podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods, make sure to download these episodes. If you're listening, go rate and review, please leave a five stars. It helps a ton. Go hit subscribe if you're watching on YouTube. Also go check out our website, which is marinelayerpod.com. All of our podcast merch is there. Hoodies, long sleeves, short sleeves, hats. You want any sort of podcast merch, our podcast merch, we'd love to see you rocking it. So it's over at the website. That's marinelayerpod.com. And then find us over on social media too, at marinelayerpod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.