Episode 481: The Crazy Plan For The Mariners Trade Both George Kirby AND Logan Gilbert This Offseason

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number 481 of the Marine Layer podcast. We're going through the first of many scenarios in which the Mariners can approach the offseason. This one is trading multiple starting pitchers out of the rotation and signing one in free agency. We'll break down how that would work. 00:00:16 Speaker 2: Reminder to you guys just before we get going here, make sure to go subscribe if you're watching on YouTube. It really helps the channel. If you're listening to the podcast, go leave a five-star review when you rate and review this episode. You can also check us out at our website at marinelayerpod.com where you can find all of our podcast merch, our Patreon, our episodes. It's all over there. And then find us all across social media at marinelayerpod. Let's get it rolling. 00:00:39 Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling. And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording here on Sunday evening, November 8th. Before we dive into this very fun, exciting, hypothetical scenario that we have for you today, there is one tiny bit of Mariners news we need to talk about here for just a second, and then we can get to the juicy stuff. So the Mariners now have hired their bench coach. They've hired Tanner Swanson away from the Yankees. His name might sound familiar to you. He spent a lot of time coaching in this state. I would imagine, Lyle, it was a pretty easy sell to him to come back here for this position. 00:01:31 Speaker 2: It has to be a dream job for him. Think about it. You're second in charge in your home state. The only better job for Tanner Swanson now would be to eventually be a manager. And maybe he will be that at some point. But yeah, to think to yourself, I'm going to be the number two man in Seattle. In my home state, I mean, it's got to be awesome. And we know some people that know Tanner. There's clearly a lot of people online and some other Mariners media people that also know Tanner Swanson. And every single review we've heard and other people seem to hear is he is just awesome. So as this coaching staff continues to round out, man, I really am excited about the way it's going. And I know some people probably think we're just drinking the hopium and we're just promoting a bunch of propaganda. No, that's not true. This team has a ton of work to do this offseason, and there is a lot of roster upgrades that need to be made, and it is not a guarantee this is going to be a phenomenal team next year. We'll have to wait and see. But I like the way the coaching staff is being formulated. I really do. I think it's a lot of really smart people, and I like that they're on the younger side. 00:02:36 Speaker 1: It's clear that they wanted a strength of this coaching staff to be teaching the and learning and growing, which maybe this is what the Mariners need after it seems like the roster forgot, whether it be from the words of Jerry DiPoto or from what our eyes told us ourselves, a lot of the basic fundamentals that come along with being a good baseball team. And if the requirement to get back to that is to bring in a more young coaching staff that is focused more on development, then so be it because that's been something that was a positive for CJ Gilman, who they brought in to be one of the hitting coaches. for Jason Kanzler, the manager, and now Tanner Swanson for the bench coach. The only surprise for me is that they have really no old guy on this coaching staff. Like, not one. I was surprised they didn't have one guy on this coaching staff that has a lot of experience in a dugout, in a decision-making, like, running a big league clubhouse sort of role there to assist a lot of guys who have some experience, but not maybe as much experience as you want? 00:03:45 Speaker 2: Maybe they'll still hire somebody like that, because there is still a few spots on the coaching staff to round out here. And if you just want to use the Seahawks example, Leslie Frazier's got some role with the Seahawks. I forget what his exact title is. He's not the defensive coordinator, because that's adding dirty. But When Mike McDonald first became the head coach, I would guess it has been pretty beneficial to have somebody like Leslie Frazier in that locker room who's been there, done that, been in the league a long time. Even though he's not the head coach, even though he's not the offensive coordinator, even though he's not the defensive coordinator, he has a role. Now, maybe that would be one of the extra hitting coaches they'll hire. Maybe they'll hire somebody that's been around the game for a long time and has been around a bit just to have that seasoned mind on the staff. 00:04:30 Speaker 1: They need a first base coach still. Yeah. Unless they're going to have someone else be the first-page coach that they've already hired, maybe that's the person that they have be the more veteran presence. It's possible, yeah. I just thought it would be the bench coach. If you were going to check the boxes looking everywhere else, it's like all youth. It's like, okay, maybe our second-in-command has a little bit more experience in a big league dugout, like running a big league team on a day-to-day basis. We'll see if it works out. It could work out very well for the Mariners. We've also brought up on here that there have been times where they haven't had enough experience in the clubhouse from a player perspective, and that's come back to bite the team. Only time will tell, but interesting choice. Definitely some positives, and I'd say wait to see on the negatives. 00:05:22 Speaker 2: A lot of people certainly are vouching for him, that's for sure. So if you want his timeline... So Tanner Swanson, I'm going to say the name right this time because I'm sorry to the great people of Cle Elum. I know on social media this weekend I said it wrong. I don't know what to tell you. All I've ever heard, I know I don't live in Cle Elum. I know on the east side of Seattle here we're not that close. But anytime anybody ever says it, all I ever heard in my life was Cle Elum. So I just said Cle Elum. Everybody I've ever had around me, that's how it was said. And I recently learned, oh, I'm saying it wrong. And I made some of the great people of Cle Elum unhappy. And I'm sorry to anybody that's listening. It is Cle Elum, which is where Tanner Swanson was born. But, born and raised. But he has been a high school coach. He has coached select baseball for anybody that knows the program Taylor Baseball in the area, which is essentially, at least when I was in high school, the premier select team in the area or one of them. He was a coach for them. He's been a coach at Green River Community College. He's then coached Division I baseball because he was an assistant coach at UW for a while. He was also an assistant coach at Central Washington. He was briefly at Santa Clara as a coach, and then he got into the Twins organization as, I believe, the minor league catching coordinator. And then he's been the big league catching coordinator and the field coordinator for the Yankees for the last few years. And now he's been hired away. And every person, I'm serious, that we've heard from has said things along the lines of he has always been way ahead of his time in terms of his baseball mind as a coach. He is very, very much a forward thinker. I've heard he's an absolute grinder. I've heard people say he's one of the smartest people I've ever been around. So, yeah, I'm excited. I think this has a chance to be a really fun coaching staff. 00:07:03 Speaker 1: And a lot of people in the Yankees organization were bummed to have him go, if that tells you anything. A lot of response from the Yankees about how crucial he was in helping a lot of their guys develop. And hopefully he'll bring a lot of that to the Mariners as well. Let's get into this fun hypothetical we have for this episode today. So we're trying to go through as many scenarios as possible. while there's no news, on how the Mariners upgrade their roster this season. There's been some pretty baseline things we've thought the Mariners are going to do this offseason. They're going to need to acquire at least one or two impact bats in their lineup, and they're going to trade a starting pitcher out of the rotation in an effort to either acquire more resources or straight up acquire these players. In this scenario, the Mariners, Lyle, are not going to trade just one starting pitcher. They're going to trade two starting pitchers, They're going to use those starting pitchers to fill those areas of need and then to fill the rotation spots that will be empty. They're going to go out on the free agent market and sign a starting pitcher, something they don't have as much trouble doing as convincing free agent hitters to come to Seattle. 00:08:09 Speaker 2: So let me give people some additional detail and background on this and why we've cooked up this idea for a potential offseason scenario for the Mariners. Because I do think these next few weeks have a chance to be really, really interesting where things could get chaotic across the league. The reason we're talking about this is, well, there's a few reasons, but I'll list two. Number one, I don't think it's any secret that if the Mariners don't win in 2027 and big changes are not made, We could very well be looking at a new front office, and I think this front office knows that. And when you're a front office that knows you have got to win, are you all of a sudden going to get more aggressive than ever before? We've seen Jerry and Justin have a pretty set blueprint for how they like to run this organization, and they don't stray away from it often. Could this be the year, knowing they have really got to put everything on the line, they change some things up and get very aggressive? And number two... I think a reason we're going to talk about this is this just isn't a very good offseason class for offense, you guys. There's not a whole ton of intriguing free agent bats out there. There's not. So the other part of this is if the Mariners want to upgrade their offense, and you would sure as hell hope they do because they were 28th in the league and run scored last year, is the most efficient way to do it to go trade starters for bats to get bats that way, and then sign a starting pitcher because it's easier to sign starting pitchers in Seattle than it is hitters. 00:09:36 Speaker 1: You would do this scenario here if you decide you're not paying Randy Rosarena and you're not paying, say, a Suzuki. That's where I feel like you pivot, or Ian Happ. That's when you're pivoting and going to this plan right here. Why don't you start off with how you're going to set this deal up for the offseason? 00:09:58 Speaker 2: So you look at what the Mariners... have in terms of their stable of starting pitching and who would be the most likely candidates to trade. And I think the two that stick out like a sore thumb, as unfortunate as it may be, and as attached as many fans are to them for good reason, are Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. Logan Gilbert has one year left on his contract before he hits free agency. George Kirby has two. It certainly does not seem like Kirby's going to sign an extension in Seattle. It gets more and more unlikely with every passing day for Logan Gilbert. And if you have a feeling that number one, those guys aren't going to resign and that you also need a little bit of an overhaul in your starting pitching, which there is an argument to be had there because this is a group that over the last two years has a combined four ERA as a unit, 405. They have not been dominant as a group of starting pitchers over the last two seasons. So if you want to argue that you need to shake things up a little bit, these would be the two candidates to trade. 00:10:55 Speaker 1: And on top of that, you just so happen to have two top 10 pitching prospects in your system that you would guess by the end of 2027 will be in your starting rotation full time. In a best case scenario, nothing goes wrong and no one gets hurt. So those guys are expendable. I would think. 00:11:12 Speaker 2: Let me list this out. Before we even get into the idea of the Mariners signing an additional starter, if the Mariners were to simply trade away Logan Gilbert and George Kirby this offseason, here is what remains of this starting pitching staff for 2027. And let's call it the majority of 2027 because Sloan probably won't start in the big leagues, but you know he's going to be there probably about halfway through. And he's going to be up there for a good while this year if everything goes according to plan and he stays healthy. If you were to trade Logan and Kirby away your starting rotation for 2027 would go as follows. Ryan Wu, Kate Anderson, Ryan Sloan, Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller, and then your number six starter would be Logan Evans. Yeah, your depth of starting pitching takes a hit. You don't have a Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in your rotation anymore. But you still have six big league starters. With a guy in Ryan Sloan who everybody seems to think is the best pitching prospect this team's had since Felix. 00:12:10 Speaker 1: So. 00:12:11 Speaker 2: He might not be all that in year one, but you're going to see flashes of it in year one, and he could still have a really good rookie season in year one like some starters do. So even before you sign a starter, you have got starting pitching depth. 00:12:23 Speaker 1: That's like a, I'd say, top half rotation, right? If we're looking for median outcome, they're probably like anywhere from the 15th to the 10th best starting rotation in baseball as that group. There's not as much upside, I would say. But it'll get you through the season, I think. 00:12:41 Speaker 2: Well, Tiege, they've been the 10th best rotation in baseball the last couple of years. They haven't been a top five unit. They haven't been a top three unit like they're supposed to be. They're more like in the 9-10 range. 00:12:51 Speaker 1: Okay, so then maybe that group would be closer to 15, I think. Yeah, maybe. 00:12:55 Speaker 2: But the point being, I don't think you have to be set in stone on the current group that you have. Because the point is... Yeah, and I'm not saying you're saying that. But just to further elaborate on why we're having this conversation... they have not been the same group as they were in 2023 and 24. Those two years, they were top of the class in major league baseball. The last two years they haven't been. Yeah. 00:13:19 Speaker 1: So then the idea, if you're getting those two guys, uh, that you're trading those two guys out of your rotation, then you answer the question. So first of all, before we sign any starting pitcher, what are you getting back for those two guys? There's a thought out there. Uh, and as backed up, I would say today, uh, by John Marossi about trading guys with one year of control left. And we've debated the merit of trading Logan Gilbert this offseason, Lyle, on whether or not something like that would be worth it. John Marossi seems to think that with the uncertainty of the 2027 season, teams wouldn't want to trade guys with one years of control left for prospects just because of the uncertainty of next season. And they're unsure if they're going to get the proper value back for them. But what John Marossi does add here at the end of his tweet is that sources say that pending free agents could be moved for each other as a way to balance the risk of what happens next year. The first two names he mentions among the candidates that he said could be traded this offseason are Logan Gilbert and Stephen Kwan. Where have we talked about trading Logan Gilbert for Stephen Kwan? Oh, here, this offseason. So Lyle, that's trade number one of trading Logan Gilbert for Stephen Kwan, and that's your left fielder for 2027. 00:14:45 Speaker 2: And I got to tell you, man, from the Guardians perspective, I'd have to imagine they are very much all ears on this idea. I know you'd only get one year of Logan Gilbert, just the way you'd get only one year left of Stephen Kwan. But if you're ball, or sorry, if you're Cleveland and you're looking at your rotation and you're trying to make another run next year and keep your payroll low. Logan and Quan are projected to get similar dollars in arbitration in their final year paired with looking at a rotation that would have Gavin Williams, Parker Messick and Logan Gilbert starting in a playoff rotation. I mean, you've got a chance to get through the American league with that. The Mariners certainly hope they wouldn't because the Mariners are hoping to upgrade to a roster that lets them go and do such said thing. But if you're Cleveland and you know you get those three guys and you still have Tanner Bybee behind them and you still have some other starters behind them, I mean, I'd have to think they'd listen, right? 00:15:39 Speaker 1: Yeah, you would think so. I think it benefits both teams. I think both teams are getting what they want out of a trade like this. I think the Guardians set themselves up well to continue their run atop the AL Central and the Mariners boost their lineup and boost their defense and boost their base running, things they desperately need. So I think that's the easiest part of this entire thing is calling the Guardians and saying, hey, do you want to swap? I honestly think you could probably pull that off in the next three weeks without that much trouble. If the Mariners wanted to do this, they could probably get it done, I think. 00:16:16 Speaker 2: I was just going to quickly say, this is built on the idea that it just seems more and more unlikely that Logan's going to sign an extension. I would love Logan to sign an extension. Again, I've talked about Kirby is the one I would be floating around in trades much more than Logan Gilbert if there was an idea that Logan was going to sign an extension. But if he's not going to sign an extension, you do have to entertain this. And again, you do have to look at making major upgrades to this roster in 27. 00:16:46 Speaker 1: Do we need another starting pitcher or do we need a guy who plays great defense in the outfield, who will be an above average hitter in our lineup, gets on base a ton... and overall makes our team better in more areas than Logan Gilbert makes our team better, in which case, again, we could just replace Logan Gilbert because we have so much pitching depth. 00:17:05 Speaker 2: And I know there's probably people listening that are saying, I do not want to trade Logan Gilbert. You can't trade Logan Gilbert. And I understand the sentiment. I really do. Again, I would love nothing more than for Logan to get extended. But if you're somebody that's sitting there saying, no, you have to keep Logan Gilbert, I would then counter and say, okay, so how do you plan to upgrade the offense that was just damn near last in the league and run scored this year? If your answer is, we'll go sign Seiya Suzuki, that would be awesome. But we cannot guarantee the Mariners are going to do that. I would love them to. Hembo predicted them to this weekend. Shout out to you, Hembo. But if they're not going to go pay for Seiya, again, how do you upgrade this offense? You can't sit on your hands. You can't run this offense back again. You can't have a 28th ranked run scoring offense. So... It is an interesting idea, Logan, for Stephen Kwan. 00:17:55 Speaker 1: So that's step one of this plan. That is the first of two starters getting traded. So Logan Gilbert for Stephen Kwan straight up. The second one is George Kirby getting traded. George Kirby, I think, is a little bit more complicated because we're not really sure where his value is at on the trade market. I wrote down here in my notes, if they were going to trade George Kirby straight up to a team and get major league players back, it would probably be the Baltimore Orioles. for positions the Mariners are looking for. And in that case, it would be Jordan Westberg or Kobe Mayo. But I actually like a different idea more where the Mariners are going to get more back for George Kirby than those two guys who are good players. But I think the Mariners, if they're looking to contend and raise the bar a little bit, I think need to shoot a little bit higher. 00:18:44 Speaker 2: And it involves a third team, which makes this very interesting. But I honestly think as we cycle through this more, the most efficient way to trade George Kirby might be through a three-team trade. And here's why I say that. I'll give a shout-out to our friend Jage on Twitter, who was the first person I saw that floated this idea out there with these three teams. But it's a great idea. And these three teams make a lot of sense, each for its own separate reasons. Because, Teej, who's somebody we've talked about a ton for the Mariners and the fit of this team really helping the offense? 00:19:20 Speaker 1: Zach Netto. 00:19:21 Speaker 2: We've talked about Zach Netto a lot. I think Zach Netto will be an awesome fit here in Seattle. The problem is we know the Mariners and Angels have literally never lined up on a trade in the DePoto era. Now that Artie Moreno's not the owner, you'd like to think that between that and a new front office, it's a little more plausible now to all work together because the story is Jerry and Artie don't have a good history, but he's not the owner anymore. Paired with the fact that I don't think that the Angels would view George Kirby as and the two years they'd get of him as beneficial to a team that really needs to just kind of tear down and rebuild. They need a lot. 00:19:57 Speaker 1: Well, and I don't know if the Mariners want to trade George Kirby to the Angels. 00:20:01 Speaker 2: Sure. So that's why if you're sitting there saying, man, Zach Netto would be such a good Mariner, but how do you do it? How can you get him? Can you just do it alone with the Mariners and Angels? It feels tougher that way. This is why you add the third team. It's funny to say because they're such a model organization and win so much, but you know who desperately needs starting pitching all of a sudden? That'd be the Atlanta Braves. If you look into the Braves pitching... It is thin, man. There is a reason that former Mariners prospect legend Ray Kerr was starting playoff games for them this year. Because the Braves all of a sudden have next to no pitching. Chris Sale's still one of the best in the game, but Sale's about to be 38 years old next year. He's going to enter his age 38 season. And that's his final year in Atlanta on his contract. He doesn't have that much time left. So you have Sale, and then you get past Sale. You know, you had Grant Holmes, who had a little bit of success this year. who's 30. You'll get Spencer Schwellenbach back, which should be a big help, but he is coming off a big injury. Tyler Malley's a free agent now. It's not a deep rotation in Atlanta. So you look to the Braves all of a sudden and you say to yourself, man, you know who really, really could use some established big league pitching? The Atlanta Braves. How does a three-team trade sound between the Mariners, the Braves, and the Angels, where you send George Kirby from Seattle to Atlanta and The Angels send a bunch of prospects that are much needed in Anaheim's organization to the Angels, and the Angels send Zach Netto to Seattle. 00:21:35 Speaker 1: Sounds great to me. That would be awesome. I think that would work. If you're trying to get Zach Netto, that's probably how you're going to have to do it. 00:21:43 Speaker 2: And that would be an awesome fit. Zach Netto, first off, for a team that we all know could not hit left-handed pitching, Zach Netto really, really hits left-handed pitching. And for a guy that didn't get off to the hottest start this year, he turned it around in a really nice way. He's had three straight seasons where he's hit 20 homers or more, three straight seasons where he's had an OPS plus that's 110 or better. He ranks as one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball, and he hits left-handed pitching. In fact, he crushes left-handed pitching. There's a lot of things about Zach Netto that really line up for this team. He's not a great defender. I will acknowledge that. But you are trying to address your lack of offense here. And Zach Netto is one of the game's premier offensive shortstops. 00:22:26 Speaker 1: This is how your lineup now shakes out for 2027 after those two trades. And this is just position players. You have Cal Raleigh catching. You have Josh Naylor at first base. Cole at second. Netto at short, Colt Emerson at third, Stephen Kwan in left, Julio in center, Brendan Donovan in right, and Dom Canzone DHing. Right now, does that sound like an upgrade to what you had in 2026? I would say yes. I would say if this team was well coached and had a good culture and stayed relatively healthy, then this team should be in the top half of baseball in run scoring and that they should be better you would think at least marginally better in most areas that they struggled in last year. 00:23:10 Speaker 2: I really like that lineup. I do. Brendan Donovan has not played a ton in right field. He's played about 30 career games in right field, but he has done it and he's played the outfield. And this is the point of having Brendan Donovan. The idea of having Donovan on your roster is so he can move around and so you can plug and play different guys in different spots. We also acknowledge that Colt Emerson might not start the year on the roster. And if that's the case, you could have either Donovan slide back to third some days, or as we've talked about, this is why they have got to get one of those two utility players we keep banging the drum for in Edmundo Sosa and or Mauricio Dubon. Because if you get one of those guys, they can move around too in the infield and the outfield. So if Emerson starts the year in the minors, and then all of a sudden you have Donovan and Dubon... splitting time between third and right field, that really works too until Colt Emerson's ready. And then Dubon would slide into a bench roll, which is where he's meant to be in the first place. So you look at that lineup up and down and I say, yeah, I like those upgrades a lot, man. I do. 00:24:15 Speaker 1: And that's a lot to digest too, because you're subtracting two starters out of your rotation to get this lineup. And that would be probably the most drastic and aggressive move this front office has made since they came into power for the 2016 season. Where they truly look at their roster and they're like, we need to redistribute the talent on this roster into different areas to win more baseball games. And here's how we're going to do it. And if this is the scenario you're going, this feels to me, Lyle, like the best case scenario, unless there's someone else who's available that we're unaware of from all the public names out there. And if you can't sign guys in for agency, this feels about as good as you could do. 00:24:59 Speaker 2: Feels damn near a home run to me. You can't know. You can't know if everybody's going to translate perfectly, but that is a much, much improved lineup and healthier lineup when you look up and down. at what the Mariners lineup has to show for it. And keep in mind, before we even get into the free agent starting pitcher portion of this, that's the lineup, and the rotation as of right now, before we've even dived into the next part, is Wu, Kate Anderson, Emerson Hancock, Ryan Sloan, Bryce Miller, with Logan Evans as the sixth starter. That's where we're at right now. Yeah. 00:25:35 Speaker 1: There are a few options that the Mariners could go in free agency on who... they could fill. Cause like the, the goal of this after you trade those two guys is that you still want some more upside in your rotation. Cause the goal is to win the world series. You're not putting together a world series lineup and then saying, Oh, the rotation it's like, we'll develop more. It's like, no, you got to push your chips in to upgrade that rotation. There's a few options. The Mariners could go for the rotation, but before we talk about those options, Lyle, do you want to read an ad? 00:26:03 Speaker 2: Yeah. Let's talk to you guys about our friends over at Pagachas pub 85. Cause you guys know it's this awesome spot over in Kirkland. great neighborhood bar where you can hang out with your friends, you can go watch sporting events, whether it's college football, the NFL, NBA, hockey, college basketball, whatever you want. It's all there, and there's awesome food and drinks whenever you go throughout the day. If you go during happy hour, well, drink specials are $ 3 and $ 4 drinks from 2 to 6 p.m. on Monday through Friday. It's a pretty good deal, man. $ 3 and $ 4 drinks during happy hour, 2 to 6 p.m. Monday through Friday. So go check it out, Pagachas Pub 85 in Kirkland. Okay, Tiege, I actually want to do the exercise like this. So I actually wrote out some tiers of free agent starting pitchers, and you can add any that you additionally have on your list too. What's that? 00:26:52 Speaker 1: I wrote down three names. Oh, you wrote down three names, period. 00:26:56 Speaker 2: Period. So I'm going to go through a tier list here, and you can add anybody else you want to add. Here's what I have. The first category I wrote down is called Pipe Dream, and there's one name in there. You can probably guess who it is. 00:27:11 Speaker 1: His name is Tarek Scooble. 00:27:12 Speaker 2: Yeah. So not a realistic one. If I could choose anybody, I'd choose him, of course. But the Mariners sadly will not pay $ 400 million for a starting pitcher. 00:27:21 Speaker 1: I mean, I would sign him regardless of if there's an open spot in the rotation or not. Yeah. 00:27:26 Speaker 2: He's the pipe dream, but I think we all know that one is not going to happen. So we get to tier one. I have two names in tier one, which are Freddie Peralta and Michael King. In tier two... This would be not quite the same level of starting pitcher and the upside they should have throughout a long contract that King and Peralta would have, but this would be more on the idea of a veteran starter on a smaller contract who's still pitched well. And the two names I have in Tier 2 are Sonny Gray and Nick Martinez. Martinez is at a couple good years in a row where he's really been productive. And then you get to Tier 3, which is more of a drop-off, and this is more like signing a true No. 5 starter at this point, but it is starters with big league success, who have had their share of good days in the major leagues, and you could probably get on a little bit less money. And that is Kevin Gosman, Foster Griffin, Shota Imanaga, Casey Mize. I even wrote Robbie Ray down. So those guys. Oh, and then the guy from Japan that's coming over. I want to try to say his name right. I think it's Kaimi Taira. He's the pitcher coming over from Japan. But I put him in Tier 3 because he's unproven. I'll write down a fourth name. So I'll say the four names I would do this for is Michael King, Freddie Peralta, Sonny Gray, or Kevin Gossman. I think those are the four guys, I think, that would be a talent upgrade over what you currently have. 00:28:56 Speaker 1: Otherwise, like, Nick Martinez is productive. He's not a high upside pitcher at all. I don't think. Like, he's very much, like, pitch to contact, like... He's not young. There's just not a ton for the Mariners to get out of him that hasn't already been got out of without being like an ace. So I just like, sure. I just don't know if I'd feel as comfortable paying like what he's probably going to get on the open market. But those other guys like, like Gaussman and Gray would probably be more of a discount because they're older and the contracts wouldn't be as long. But your first two targets for this, if you're especially replacing Logan Gilbert, is you want to try and get one of Michael King or Freddy Peralta. And you're going to have to pay them about $ 30 million AAV, probably between 28 and 30 to get their services. 00:29:47 Speaker 2: Right. Does Gosman concern you at all? Because he did drop off this year, and the one thing about Gosman that has been so nails about him since the turn of the decade when he really turned himself into the pitcher he's been in Toronto before he got traded was he kind of lost the splitter this year. It did not have the same effect that it's had in years past, which has been such a money pitch for him. Does the age and the 4-5 ERA and the splitter kind of deteriorating this year, does that concern you at all? 00:30:17 Speaker 1: A little bit. But I know he has a long track record of success and of being dominant while doing it. 00:30:24 Speaker 2: I mean, look, one year ago he was a four-war pitcher, so totally fair. I was just curious. 00:30:30 Speaker 1: For him, though, you could also get him on a very short deal, too. He might sign a one-year deal. That's all that's available for him. If you really want to bridge to the development of Cade and Sloan and you extend Brian Wu, then you only really need him for one season. Right. 00:30:47 Speaker 2: Totally fair. And maybe in that one year, he really bounces back. And he's going to be 36 years old. So he is aging. I'll be totally honest here, Tiege. Of all the names on here, you can argue for a few of them. There's one that stands so far and away above the rest of them for me. It's Freddie. 00:31:05 Speaker 1: Like. 00:31:05 Speaker 2: If you're going to do this, go get Freddie. Michael King's a good pitcher, and he deserves to get every penny that he's going to get paid in free agency. But Michael King is a little more volatile than Freddie is. Michael King much more pitches to contact. Michael King much more, like, doesn't have the world's hardest fastball in the world. Some of the expected stuff on King this year was a little concerning. Like, his FIP was almost 100 points lower than his actual ERA. Michael King's a good pitcher. I would rather have Freddie Peralta. 00:31:36 Speaker 1: I think Freddie's been way more volatile. I mean, Freddie has better stuff. I think Freddie might age better because his stuff is ticked up more now. So when it comes down, it won't be as far down as Michael King. And Michael King is one year older than him. But Michael King's been just on an absolute run of productivity for the last almost decade long with two different teams, with both the Yankees and And with the Padres. 00:32:04 Speaker 2: I think you mean half decade, right? Because he's only been up since. 00:32:06 Speaker 1: Yeah, about half. I mean, since he's been doing... I mean, so he was a reliever with the Yankees, and then he comes over to the Padres, and that's when he's starting. So he's had about two seasons of starting, but he has been much more consistent, even as a starter, than Freddie has. Like, Freddie this year... Freddie this year, it was a mixed bag. I know he was with two different teams, but it was. I think Freddie Peralta would still be my number one choice, but... I don't think the difference between him and King is astronomical. 00:32:35 Speaker 2: All right, so maybe we see this a little bit differently. I just see this as Freddie Peralta had to spend half a season with the Mets, and that was what essentially tanked his public perception a little bit, and then he gained it all back this last three months when he was in Tampa. Because, I mean, Freddie admitted they were essentially using him wrong in Queens, and Tampa did all the things right with him. 00:32:57 Speaker 1: It might be an easier sell to get Freddie because, well, he started here. 00:33:01 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think all our listeners... However much that means to him still, possible. I'm guessing a lot of our listeners don't even know that. Yeah, plug your ears if you're not ready to hear nails on a chalkboard here, but 10 years ago, when Jerry DiPoto just took over as the GM of the Mariners, one of the first trades he made was acquiring Adam Lind from the Milwaukee Brewers and a trade that involved the Mariners sending prospect pitcher Freddie Peralta to Milwaukee for Adam Lind. 00:33:32 Speaker 1: And within the same 365 days, I believe, he also traded a very unknown lottery chip starting pitching prospect, very low in the minors, to the Marlins while acquiring David Phelps. His name was Pablo Lopez. 00:33:50 Speaker 2: So that was about a year and a half later. They traded for Phelps in 20— 500 days. They traded for Phelps in 2017. But yes, Freddy Peralta and Pablo Lopez were both Mariners pitching prospects who got traded away for two guys who did next to nothing. So, yeah, Freddy Peralta was once upon a time a Mariner. I'm guessing not every single person listening to this podcast knows that. But I think I like the fact Freddy has better stuff. I don't know, man. I feel like Freddy's been a pretty good model of consistency in the last five years aside from his time in Queens for four months. 00:34:23 Speaker 1: The stuff is definitely better. He's got a higher ceiling as a pitcher. That I'm not going to argue. But it just depends on what kind of productivity we're talking about. Like I said, he's my number one. And I only truly think doing this is worth it if you're going to sign Freddie or Michael King. Otherwise, I just don't see how you're not going to keep the same level in your starting rotation if you don't. 00:34:51 Speaker 2: Sure. I totally agree. Because if you sign Freddie, there's a world that he's then your opening day starter. If you sign Freddie to a big contract, it's him or Brian Wu that would be starting opening day. Maybe they give Wu the nod because he's been here longer and been so productive the last three seasons. But there's a real argument that that's your opening day starter if you sign a guy like that. So.... 00:35:17 Speaker 1: So that leads. 00:35:19 Speaker 2: We see this slightly differently... I definitely have Freddie a little bit ahead of King, but you're right. If you sign one of those two arms, this makes it worth it. 00:35:27 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so. So that leaves your 2027 lineup as what we talked about earlier, catcher through DH. And then your rotation will now look like Brian Wu is your starting pitcher. Number one, Freddie, number two, Cade, number three, Emerson, number four, Sloan, number five with Bryce Miller and Logan Evans also as options. If you want to swap Bryce in for Emerson Hancock, cause you feel that's better. or Ryan Sloan, then so be it. But those are your seven starting pitchers you're going into 2027 with. 00:35:58 Speaker 2: And let me say it again. Doesn't that feel like you have some depth, man? It does to me. It certainly does to me. That's seven starting pitchers you've got. Assuming Sloan doesn't start the year on the team, Bryce Miller's probably in the rotation to start the year, along with Wu, Freddie, Cade, and Hancock. And when Sloan's ready, then you make your decision. If somebody's injured, Sloan would take the injured man spot. If everybody's healthy, somebody either moves to the bullpen or you figure it out from there. But yeah. 00:36:29 Speaker 1: You know what this feels like to me? This kind of feels like an equal amount of talent on the roster. If you were to just sign Seiya Suzuki and keep both of those starters in the rotation... Versus doing this layout. I think you end up with about the same amount of talent. 00:36:49 Speaker 2: Oh, really? I think this is an upgrade. I think this team's better than the team currently. 00:36:53 Speaker 1: I think this team's better, but overall talent. Yeah, this is better. Cause you still have a hole at shortstop in the first scenario. But again, that's just like, when we talk about talent allocation, you don't have, you don't have a hole. 00:37:05 Speaker 2: You have netto in netto. 00:37:08 Speaker 1: The scenario where you don't trade any of your starters. 00:37:11 Speaker 2: Oh, I see what you're saying. 00:37:12 Speaker 1: Because then you just add Seah as your, what, he's going to cost $ 25 million left fielder. You keep your two starting pitchers versus trading your two starting pitchers away, getting one player each back for them, and then signing a starting pitcher and putting them in the rotation. That's pretty equal. 00:37:30 Speaker 2: Sure. 00:37:31 Speaker 1: It's just where is the talent allocated? Right. 00:37:34 Speaker 2: The only difference... though, from 2026 to 2027, though, becomes you have a new left fielder. Randy and Seiya Suzuki, like, that was a very outlier year that Randy just had. That was a career best season. But if Seiya Suzuki was going to put up similar production to that, and Randy goes somewhere else in free agency, isn't that essentially the same team Again, I mean. 00:38:00 Speaker 1: Which is why we're suggesting the scenario. It's like saying last year's team wasn't talented. They were very talented. Their lineup was more talented than the raised lineup. They're rolling out in the world series, but the problem is they weren't good at a lot of things. Talent only matters is if you can turn it into production, we're taking that talent and we're optimizing it more for what the Mariners need to win in 2027. 00:38:21 Speaker 2: Correct. The final piece of this equation becomes about the money. Cause again, there's probably some of you sitting there and saying, well, this is a lot of wheeling and dealing with a lot of really, really marquee names. How does this shake out in terms of money? Like, are the Mariners going to spend all this? So I crunched the numbers a little bit for what this could look like. The 2026 Mariners ended their payroll at $ 170 million that ranked 16th in Major League Baseball. Going into this offseason, the $ 15. 5 million you just paid Randy Rosarena this year comes off the books. That's the number he got in his final year of arbitration. The $ 12 million you just paid J.P. Crawford on the final year of his contract comes off the books, assuming he is going to go elsewhere. George Kirby is projected to make $ 10 million in arbitration this upcoming season, which would come off the books if you trade him. Logan Gilbert is projected to make $ 15 million in arbitration, which would come off the books if you trade him. That right there takes the Mariners' payroll down from $ 170 million to $ 117. 5 million. So now all of a sudden, just to get back to last year's mark, you've got room to work. And if you do everything we just implemented here, it looks like this. Zach Netto is projected to make $ 10. 3 million in arbitration this upcoming season. Stephen Kwan is projected to make $ 11. 3 million in arbitration this upcoming season. And if we're going to use Jim Bowden's projected contract for Freddy Peralta of five years and $ 140 million, that comes out to $ 28 million a year AAV. All of that combined together, all the moves, all the wheeling and dealing, puts the Mariners payroll at $ 167. 00:40:06 Speaker 1: 1 million. 00:40:07 Speaker 2: So $ 3 million less than than where they already were to end 2026. 00:40:19 Speaker 1: And that's not even counting if there's going to be a salary floor next year. 00:40:23 Speaker 2: Correct. 00:40:23 Speaker 1: Where that number would almost certainly be higher than $ 167. 1 million. And where the Mariners would have to go add even more talent under their roster, God forbid! Yeah. 00:40:33 Speaker 2: Yes. Now, that number's not perfect, because to be clear, there's other players that'll get arbitration money, so that'll take the payroll up a little bit. If the Mariners make other moves, and they still should, bullpen, bench, etc., that'll take the payroll up a little bit, but you can absolutely make this work. Everything we just highlighted, this works in terms of upgrading the roster, this works in terms of still having starting pitching depth, this works in terms of having a free agent be attracted to Seattle because it's so much easier to attract free agent pitchers than hitters, and this works in terms of the money because you're still right in the range. 00:41:15 Speaker 1: So let's summarize this for the people again because we've said a lot of things. Short and sweet, you're trading Logan Gilbert to the Cleveland Guardians for Stephen Kwan, one for one. In a three-way trade between the Mariners, the Braves, and the Angels, you're sending George Kirby to Atlanta receiving Zach Nettle from the Angels, and you're going to send prospects to the Angels. And then you're going to offer Freddy Peralta a five-year deal for $ 140 million to bolster your rotation for 2027. Do you, let us know down in the comments, do you think that makes the Mariners a better team than they would be if they just left it otherwise or just signed a free agent? I'd be curious to know down in the comments. 00:41:58 Speaker 2: I'll say two things. I think for the most part, the Braves would be the ones sending prospects to the Angels. Maybe the Mariners would have to send somebody, but you mentioned how prospects get sent to the Angels. Those prospects, for the most part, should come from Atlanta because the Mariners are already trading Kirby. If they were to do all of those things, one more time, I will summarize this for everybody. Here's what the lineup looks like. Raleigh at catcher, Naylor at first, Cole Young at second, Zach Netto at short, Colt Emerson at third, Stephen Kwan in left, Julio in center, Brendan Donovan in right, Canzone DH-ing, with your starting pitching depth going Brian Wu, Freddie Peralta, Kate Anderson, Emerson Hancock, Ryan Sloan, with Bryce Miller and Logan Evans also available. I am very, very intrigued by the sound of that. 00:42:44 Speaker 1: That'd be a lot for us to talk about, I'll tell you that. Not one, but two trades. 00:42:51 Speaker 2: And a lot in three weeks' time, assuming a lot of this gets done before the lockout starts. That'd be signing Freddie, trading Kirby for Netto, and trading Logan for Kwon. That's a lot of episodes. 00:43:03 Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, dog. You would have to do all this in the next three weeks. I don't see how you would... trade one of your starters with the season on your doorstep once the lockout ends. You would have to get this all done by 1159 on December 1st. 00:43:21 Speaker 2: And truthfully, by the sequencing of it all, maybe this sounds crazy, but you'd probably have to sign Freddie first or Michael King. 00:43:29 Speaker 1: No, I don't think so. No? 00:43:31 Speaker 2: I feel like you want to have. 00:43:33 Speaker 1: I think those guys are going to wait until the last few days of free agency. Or the last few days of... This month period where people can operate because otherwise they're not going to let the bidding war happen enough. 00:43:47 Speaker 2: So, okay. True. The only thing I was thinking about that was, do the Mariners need to have one of those guys in the stable before they're ready to trade multiple starting pitchers? 00:43:57 Speaker 1: But if you sign Freddie first, it gives you less leverage. 00:44:00 Speaker 2: Oh, that's true. It does too. So there's pros and cons to both. 00:44:03 Speaker 1: Yep. Yeah, you could take the safe route, but then the other team, as you're trying to trade Logan Gilbert, would be like, why are we giving you Stephen Kwan? 00:44:10 Speaker 2: Sure. 00:44:11 Speaker 1: You don't have room for all these pitchers. 00:44:13 Speaker 2: Right. And like we said, if the Mariners just traded Logan and Kirby and then didn't add any starters, you can still make it work because it's Wu, Cade, Emerson, Bryce Miller, and eventually Ryan Sloan with Logan Evans also available. Like if Logan Evans, who's supposed to be healthy by spring training— started the year as the five starter till, till Sloan's ready. Like, yeah, that works too. You can, you can do that. And in that scenario, maybe you sign a starter on a one-year deal. Who's just a veteran just to have some extra depth, but yeah, you can make that work. So man, that makes things interesting. 00:44:50 Speaker 1: It does be interesting. It would be a very exciting way to go about the soft season and you would be better in, in 2027. Yes. It'd be a big shakeup. You talk about a culture shakeup. Like you're letting everyone you mentioned earlier, or, You're letting Randy go. You're letting JP go. And then you're having two of your longest tenured pitchers. Well, your two longest tenured pitchers are gone. 00:45:12 Speaker 2: Out of the rotation. And that's after trading Castillo at the end of July. Remember that photo? Because they've used it a bunch over the years. That all five of those starters took in spring training a couple years ago. They're all holding the baseballs out. It's Luis, Logan, Kirby, Miller, and Wu. It is crazy to think about. There's a world where Again, we've said this rotation potentially needs some shakeups and some overhaul. There's an actual world where in this scenario, the only guy left in that photo is Brian Wu. Bryce Miller's still on the team, but there's a world where in this scenario, he'd move to the bullpen at some point because you've got other guys. 00:45:49 Speaker 1: Yeah. That's all for the Mariners to figure out here very, very, very soon. I don't think we've really wrapped our mind around how fast this is all going to have to take place. Like really fast. 00:46:01 Speaker 2: I'm honestly shocked more moves haven't already started. Because again, everybody only has about three weeks and then it's done. People got to get moving. 00:46:08 Speaker 1: Well, GM meetings are this week. I think we will start seeing stuff this week when people are in person to hash things out. 00:46:16 Speaker 2: Sure. Last little note, in case anybody's curious, neither Freddie Peralta or Michael King are repped by Scott Boris. So there will be bidding wars for these guys. But you don't have to deal with the Scott Boris part of the bidding wars, which makes it borderline untenable, and the Mariners almost never sign Boris clients. So neither of those guys are Boris guys, for anybody wondering. 00:46:37 Speaker 1: And also to note, we will have Ryan Davish on Friday's podcast, if you are curious. So we can run these ideas by him to see how likely he thinks they are. 00:46:47 Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, Divish always loves to give us an elbow full of it. He'll probably tell us this is the stupidest thing of all time, but you know what? I'll fight back with Divish. This is a good idea. I'm going to stamp this. It'd be hard for a lot of people to swallow because there's emotional ties, but I think this is a good idea. 00:47:02 Speaker 1: Well, I mean, Divish has never been one to shoot down trade rumors. No. 00:47:07 Speaker 2: I don't think. I think we're going to float some ideas by Divish. I've got a few things planned that I want to throw his way, along with this is going to be a different podcast episode at some point, but could we see the Mariners take the biggest swing on a player of all time in the DePoto era this offseason, too, in the sense of could we see them shell out a prospect hall we've never seen to go get some star from elsewhere in Major League Baseball? We'll highlight a few names when we eventually get there, but yeah, I want to run some names by Divish, too. 00:47:35 Speaker 1: So. 00:47:36 Speaker 2: The mailbag will be Wednesday this week. So if you guys have mailbag questions, especially if you're Patreon members, you can get them in early this week because we'll do an early mailbag. So with that, that'll just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full-form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure to download these episodes if you're listening. Go rate and review. Leave it five stars. It really helps if you do. Same idea over on YouTube, except just go hit subscribe. Hit the subscribe button on YouTube if you're watching these episodes. You can also find us at our website, which is marinelayerpod.com. You can find our merch. It's all over there, especially hoodies and long sleeves right as we're now entering winter season. We're in the swing of fall season. Patreon's also there, so check all that out. And then you can find us all across social media at marinelayerpod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.