Episode 89: James Paxton Rumors Surface, And What Would A Trade Package For Bryce Miller/Bryan Woo Look Like?

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 89 of the Marine Layer Podcast. James Paxton was spotted at the Winter Classic this weekend at T-Mobile Park. What does that mean for the Mariners? We'll dive into that and tie that directly

[00:00:13] to the futures of Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo and what they could potentially fetch on the open market. Let's get it rolling. And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network,

[00:00:56] recording here on Tuesday, January 2nd. Happy New Year, dog! How does it feel to be in 2024? Flying cars, rocket ships going to Pluto, everything. The world's changed, I've changed, we've all changed. I never thought it would look like this.

[00:01:15] Are we any closer to going to Mars now? Now that the calendar's turned? I hope so, right? One year closer than we were in 2023, we didn't get there.

[00:01:23] That's a good perspective. I think the best thing about the New Year dog, and I thought a great way to start this with is we're just going to have a little erred out session here with. I'm just going to ask you, what's your New Year's resolution?

[00:01:37] Okay, I'm going to be totally honest. I think New Year's resolutions are total bullshit and I'll tell you why, because what people do when they make New Year's resolutions is usually give up on them in the first couple weeks.

[00:01:48] How often do you hear people say, oh, I've got a New Year's resolution, and then they just keep it going for the whole year, two years, five years, etc.? That doesn't happen.

[00:01:57] There's people that say, oh, I'm going to go to the gym to start the new year and actually get back into working out, and they go for two weeks. It's like, yeah, maybe next week I'll go a couple of times.

[00:02:05] And after that, it's like, yeah, maybe I'll go once. And then after that, it's like, yeah, maybe I'll go once a month, and then you don't go. So I think much like people that say they're going to diet, New Year's resolutions are fake.

[00:02:17] And I say that because dieting is not a thing, because dieting means, oh, for X amount of time, I'm going to eat healthy. And then I'm going to go back to eating like crap, where it's the same thing with a New Year's resolution.

[00:02:27] I think if you actually want to commit to doing something, you truly commit to doing something and it's not because, oh, the calendar flipped. So now I just went on a little tirade about New Year's resolutions. That being said, I would love to hear yours.

[00:02:40] So I'm not usually a New Year's resolution guy, and I'm going to push back on your dieting thing a little bit. People do diet. Dieting is essentially changing your diet. That's what it is.

[00:02:49] If you keep it going long enough, you can stop calling it dieting. Is that fair? I think that's a little bit more fair. But people do have to diet to change their appetite and what they eat. Okay?

[00:03:00] Let's just make this clear. Dieting is not mine. Unfortunately, I don't have any. I feel like I'm a decently healthy enough person that when I do eat like shit, I think it balances out a little bit.

[00:03:12] Maybe when I get a little bit older and my metabolism slows down, then I might reconsider. But for now, I think we're doing good.

[00:03:23] I've actually committed to something this year, Lyle, that just right now here on the second day of this New Year that I'm going to do. I've always said like I need new clothes. Like I don't buy enough new clothes.

[00:03:36] I don't have enough variety in my wardrobe and I'm like, I'm kind of disappointed myself and I'm fed up. And I've made it a point this year. I'm like, you know what? I have money to spend.

[00:03:47] I want to be buying some new clothes. I need a lot of new clothes. I'm not a shopper. I don't go shopping. I don't go to the store and go browse through clothes and like, oh, I'm going to waste a Saturday.

[00:03:57] I'm not going to say waste because there are some people who actually take a lot of time to go shopping. But I'm not the type of person that's going to go spend three hours at Old Navy to go buy a new wardrobe.

[00:04:08] Like, that's not me. I'm not going to buy a bunch of things and return half of them. It just seems like too much time.

[00:04:15] But I wake up in the morning and I stare at my closet and I stare at a lot of the clothes I've owned since college, if that. College, by the way, seems like a short time ago but we are four months away from it being four years ago.

[00:04:29] It's stacking up a little bit and I just can't even describe how much I've changed and my life has changed since you and I both graduated college in May of 2020. So, I'm sitting there and thinking like, you know, I really could use some new stuff.

[00:04:46] I feel like it is just time to update this. And you know what I'm doing? I'm putting my personal and financial commitment to looking better this year. So, I'm actually very excited to do it.

[00:04:59] I don't need to make my New Year's resolution to go to the gym. I already do go to the gym. So that's not an issue but something I don't do is I slack off on keeping my wardrobe updated and looking, I think...

[00:05:12] I feel like I could look better. So, I'm going to make a commitment to do that this year. And I'm excited. I think it's going to be great. My wallet's going to hate it but I think it's going to pay off. I actually like that one.

[00:05:25] I never did getting new clothes as a New Year's resolution but I will say, since we graduated college, I've put more investment into the clothes I buy and I never used to want to be that person.

[00:05:35] You're talking about the person that through, I don't know, way too long, 19, 20 years old, was just wearing baggy shorts and t-shirts forever. And it was really at the point where it was like, okay, this is getting ridiculous. This has to stop.

[00:05:47] So, a little bit in college, I was like, okay, I'll pick out a few new things but especially once we graduated, I got a little more serious about, yeah, let's find some new clothes. Let's find some things that I really enjoy wearing and I'm looking forward to wearing.

[00:05:59] So, I like that idea that I like that you're going to commit to it because especially then, I think you'll even feel it more when eventually the time in your life comes where you move to another place where maybe you feel like you're in a bigger city.

[00:06:10] It's kind of fun to wear more upscale clothes in a bigger city a lot of the time. Not all the time but you have occasions where you say, oh, I'm glad I have this. And I just want to have more variety.

[00:06:19] For example, can I just start with today? Like, I've never worn this combination before. Like, crew neck, vest, never done it. Watch on YouTube by the way if you want to hear me describe my outfit for the day.

[00:06:28] I've never worn this combination before and I actually kind of like it. I want the ability for more variety which I don't feel like I have. I feel like I'm very boxed in with what I have.

[00:06:39] And again, if you have the financial resources which I feel like I do and I think I manage my money pretty well, like I feel like this is an option I have to go take.

[00:06:51] And I feel like by the time you reach your mid-20s and you're an adult, you're a flat out adult, it's time to take care of yourself. And I think that is what I'm doing with this. And I'm, I guess, I'm excited.

[00:07:02] I'm very much looking forward to it. I got to make one more point before we move along here. Can you explain to me the point of a crew neck of those vests? I've never in my entire life understood I guess what the point

[00:07:13] of wearing those things are when they have no sleeves and it's just like, well, you're wearing a jacket, but it's not a jacket. It doesn't have sleeves. Like what purpose is it serving? Well, it is like, it is a first if you look, it keeps you warm,

[00:07:24] keeps your chest warm, which is, which is good. Second, like layering is important in style, right? Me, style expert obviously who needs to buy new clothes. Styling expert. But just having layers is it not, again, not only is it warm,

[00:07:41] but it just gives you more like depth in your outfit. Like this is both gray in a, in a, in a better world. I probably wouldn't have gray on gray, but I think it still works and it's not too hot because it's what 40 degrees today

[00:07:54] in Corvallis, but I can wear sleeves and not have to wear a t-shirt and be worried about being cold, but also like not overly hot with a full on heavy jacket. Instead, I'm just keeping my torso warm and kind of balancing out a little bit.

[00:08:10] So that's my, that's my ballpark explanation. Okay. Yours makes a little more sense. I'm just thinking back to high school. I used to see these kids wearing t-shirts and then wearing those crew neck like North Face vests. And I'm thinking there is no point in this whatsoever.

[00:08:23] It's 40 degrees out. You have short sleeves on short sleeves. I don't know, I don't know what purpose that served. Well you just pitched to me, I can get behind. And I, more of my emphasis too is I want to buy some more jackets. I don't have enough jackets.

[00:08:35] Just layering has become a big thing. It really has. It's like the Mariners layering a lineup, which I don't think people took too well to our Friday episode. I don't think. Well, it sounds like they may need to go out a few more bats,

[00:08:48] which could tie into today's episode. I've got a story to tell and it's going to tie into our first subject here. Before we do that though, let's talk to you and give you a quick word about our friends over at Pagotches Pub 85. That's Pagotches Pub 85 in Kirkland.

[00:09:02] You want a great spot to go eat some great food, have some drinks, hang out with your friends and watch some games. I hope you were over there watching the college football playoff this past weekend because those were two phenomenal games and there's 22 TVs in the place.

[00:09:15] So whatever you desire, whether it's football, basketball, hockey, baseball, once it starts back up again, we're not that far away. Head over there and if you do so, you can get some great happy hour deals if you check out their happy hour specials.

[00:09:27] They are Monday through Friday, 2 to 6 p.m. And it includes $3 domestic beers, $4 Mani's Blue Moons, $4 Mackinjacks, $4 Wells, $4 House Wines, go check it all out, hang out with your friends over at Pagotches Pub 85 in Kirkland. Okay, I've got a little story to tell,

[00:09:44] a little New Year's Day story that's going to tie in. So I was going to go to the winter classic. I was planning to go. I stayed over at a friend's place in Seattle after New Year's Eve

[00:09:53] because we were planning to just head down there the next day and go to the game. We were saying, okay, we don't have tickets yet. They're not that expensive, but they might be a little bit out of the range we want to pay price-wise.

[00:10:03] So we said before the game, we'll just head down there, hang out, and then we'll buy tickets when it gets close to the game time. We have a friend from ASU who is an expert with this stuff,

[00:10:14] and I was trying to take a page right out of his book. Well, it turns out my friend and his girlfriend that he was going with the day before got tickets from somebody at their work. And I didn't realize it until I saw him that night.

[00:10:27] And they said, yeah, we actually ended up getting tickets for a really good deal. They only had two. And I was like, well, that's kind of unfortunate. But I guess I'll just buy my own ticket, figure it out from there.

[00:10:36] I get up on the morning of New Year's Day. Tickets say they're at about starting price 140 bucks after fees are a little more than that. I was like, okay, it's about 7.45, 8 o'clock. The game doesn't start till 12. It'll go down. So we head down to Seattle. We're hanging out.

[00:10:51] We stopped at a breakfast place. We stopped at a couple of the bars down by the stadium beforehand and I'm just waiting for it to go down. I'm waiting for it to go down. I was not going down as fast as I was hoping it would.

[00:11:01] And usually this does happen. Like these guys have to get rid of tickets, these ticketing sites before they just don't sell them anymore. So I figured at some point they'll go down, right? And they didn't.

[00:11:12] I sat at the bar for what ended up being most of the game because when the game started, tickets had gone up to 200 bucks. I was like, well, what just happened? That doesn't make any sense. Then in the first period, I'm like,

[00:11:23] well, if I go in in the middle of the first period, it's not a big deal. Then it's gone up to 300 bucks. This is the cheapest ticket, by the way. And then by the end of the first period, it said it was $400 to go to the winter classic.

[00:11:33] So starting price, both on December 30th, New Year's Eve, morning in New Year's Day, was about 180 to 200 bucks. I was hoping to get it somewhere between 100 to 140. And then by the end of the first period, it was $400. So I said, you know what?

[00:11:48] It may not be in the cards. So if you want to know how my new year's got started, that's how it got started by a failed plan that was not executed. So how unfortunate. Man, you gambled. And it's almost as much of a gamble

[00:12:01] as what came out of the winter classic, Mariners-wise, Lyle. It was... Do you want to say this? I was going to tie this in to your gamble and the potential gamble that could be. Go ahead. Well, it was tweeted out and it was made very apparent

[00:12:21] that James Paxton was sitting in the owner's suite at T-Mobile Park watching the hockey game and watching the winter classic. And it's like, huh? Why would it be public information that James Paxton is specifically sitting in the owner... The Mariners owner suite for the winter classic?

[00:12:42] It's like, huh, well he's Canadian. He likes hockey. No, I don't think he's just there because he likes hockey. I think he's there because the Mariners might be interested in. And I'm going to tell you, Lyle, if they're interested in James Paxton, that is a gamble right there.

[00:13:03] That is... You're stepping up to the blackjack table and the dealer has a face card and you're like, uh-oh. Yeah, it could go one of two ways. And I will say there could be people sitting there saying, oh, well is James Paxton either just visiting

[00:13:22] or is he there because he has residents in Seattle? Which as far as I know, I don't want... Don't quote me on this and I'm not going to sit here and confirm it. But I'm pretty sure James Paxton still spends time in Seattle in the off-season.

[00:13:35] Whether he still lives here or just spends a chunk of time here each off-season, he does still have ties to Seattle as far as I'm concerned. So you could say, well maybe you went to the winter classic because like you said, Canadian roots

[00:13:47] and wanted to check out a cool event. But no, it wasn't just he was at the game. He wasn't sitting in section 130 with a bunch of his family. He wasn't sitting out in the crowd. No, he's up in the owner suite. So that says, oh, there's something here.

[00:14:02] It's not like James Paxton and John Stanton go back ways and ways and ways and I should say the Mariners whole ownership group to the point where, oh, let's kick back, have a couple beers, watch a couple hockey games. No, that's not what's going on.

[00:14:15] So the reason he's sitting up in that owner suite and to your point, yeah, it would be a gamble because as we know, James Paxton is high risk but high reward. Was Blake Snell up there too? Hopefully. Something tells me, something tells me James Paxton was okay

[00:14:35] with the catered food they had up there. But maybe Blake Snell said, you know what? Can I get a lobster lunch here and the Mariners said, well, no. Which would be very on brand to the Mariners' ownership's approach to this off season saying, oh, left-handed starter James Paxton,

[00:14:55] left-handed starter Blake Snell, one could be on a one year, eight to 12 million dollar deal, one's going to cost about 200 million. Hmm, who would we like to host for the winner classic? I'm going to pick James Paxton. Did Blake Snell even get the invite? I don't think so.

[00:15:13] Blake Snell was probably sitting in the crowd instead, unfortunately. And if some people are wondering the source of this information, it was tweeted by Chad Day and you might be wondering, well, who the fuck is that? I've never heard of Chad Day before.

[00:15:27] He doesn't have a check mark. It wasn't Jeff Paxton who tweeted it. It wasn't even John Morosie who tweeted it. It wasn't Ken Rosenthal who tweeted it. No, it was Chad Day. And he's not a reporter or anything. And if you scroll through his Twitter timeline,

[00:15:43] you won't really pick up on much. But I think the one thing you can pick up on is that I'm pretty sure that dude knows James Paxton because guess who was first on the reporting when James Paxton went back to Seattle in 2021? Oh yeah, it was Chad Day.

[00:15:58] He was first. It was Jeff Paxton and Ken Rosenthal giving Chad Day credit for breaking that news. Now I'm guessing if he knew that James Paxton, again, specifically noted that he's in the owner suite. Specifically that information was given to be made public. This isn't a scoop.

[00:16:16] This is given to be made public. That something has happened. And there could be a lot cascading after that should something happen. But there's a lot of layers to this, if we're talking about layers earlier, there is layers to this. The first question we need to ask ourselves

[00:16:34] is that would you be okay with the Mariners signing James Paxton? Wow, would you be okay with the Mariners signing James Paxton? I would because it's probably not going to be a ton of money. It's probably not going to be some huge contract.

[00:16:47] It would be the idea that he could pitch at the back end of the rotation or potentially serve as some depth. So in that way, yes, I would. And if you want to double down from the Chad Day report here very quickly, well, first off,

[00:16:58] if you check Chad Day's Twitter, most of his tweets are about James Paxton. There's a lot. Most of them are James Paxton related. So just scroll his Twitter feed and you'll see, yeah, these guys are tied together. Along with then today, Tuesday, when we're recording this,

[00:17:12] Chris Cotillo who's one of the Red Sox Beat reporters, he reported the Red Sox have talked to Paxton about a return but it looks like the Mariners are in play for him again. So now we've got a real report coming from a real Beat reporter.

[00:17:25] So along with the Chad Day tweet, you've got somebody from the Red Sox who's actually confirming this saying, oh, this is picking up traction and steam. So this is real. And yes, I'm okay with James Paxton because one, he's familiar with the team, with the organization.

[00:17:40] He knows Jerry and Scott. He's played for him. And when he's healthy, and I know that's a big if, he can serve as a very, very productive back end starter if he is on the field. You caught yourself there at reliable because he has been anything but reliable

[00:17:57] and he's been a great player. And once he essentially pitched in New York for the 2019 season, that was his last full Major League season. He pitched a portion of the 2020 season. Then he threw a third of an inning. Yeah, it was a third of an inning

[00:18:12] in the 2021 season with the Mariners. So he's only thrown 20 and 2 thirds innings from 2020, 2021 and 2022. 20 and 2 thirds, that's it, period. He came back last season. He had a pretty bad second half before he finished out the season with injuries. But he managed to come back and pitched 96 innings

[00:18:33] in 2023, and for most of those innings, he was pretty good. He had a pretty bad second half before he finished out the season with injuries. He still can pitch when he's healthy. He 100% still can pitch when he's healthy. So here's something that makes you optimistic.

[00:18:48] He was healthy his first nine starts of the 2023 season. 31% strikeout rate, two 7-0 ERA and 50 innings. That's top of the line starter stuff. But then in the innings following that after that, in the second half, 6-4, 6-ERA, just an 18% strikeout rate.

[00:19:06] And over that, a lot of it came from a 9 and 2 thirds inning stretch where he gave up 16 earned runs. And then he went on the aisle with knee inflammation, which would probably be a reason for that. But again, over those final innings of the season,

[00:19:19] the final 46 innings of the season, he went from elite starter to bad starter. If you're going to pick those two sample sizes, the question you have to ask yourself as a Mariners fan is what sample am I buying? I'm going to guess the 46 innings he sucked,

[00:19:35] he was hurt. That's what that would be my guess. The problem with James Paxton is that he has hurt a lot. He had a number of injuries last season. And it could be, part of it could be he was hurt

[00:19:48] and part of it could be too, the fatigue of coming back from a Tommy John surgery maybe started to wear on him in the second half as well. And I know he didn't throw that many innings, but when you throw less than 25 innings over the course

[00:19:58] of three seasons, that's going to happen when you throw a 96 inning season. You are going to start to get tired because it's been a long time since you've had a full workload. Here's the one other concern I have about Paxton and everybody knows about the injury history.

[00:20:11] We could spend more time on that, but I think that's well noted. He hasn't exactly been a dominate the zone guy since he left Seattle. He has walked more guys substantially since he lost Seattle and it's not out of control, but when you look

[00:20:25] 16, 17, 18 when he was still in Seattle, he was walking less than three per nine. Then since he left, it's gone up. It's over three per nine. I don't know if that's a huge concern to Jerry and Justin or to anybody in the front office

[00:20:39] or maybe it's just me overblowing this. I just did happen to see, okay, along with good stuff and you know he's going to strike a lot of guys out starting to get a little bit more erratic with his command. It could be the organization he goes to

[00:20:51] and it might not be as much of a priority of the Red Sox and the Yankees that he avoids walks at all costs or have a catchy catch phrase. I used the word catch there twice, like control the zone and instead James Paxton is just going out there

[00:21:05] spinning the best stuff he possibly can. I don't think that's a real deal breaker, especially as the podcast who was sitting has been sitting on a Trial off season screaming. Sign Blake Snow. All right, you got a fair point with that.

[00:21:19] Listen, like I said toward the start of the pod, I am very open to signing James Paxton if I'm the Mariners. I'm just noting his walk rate has risen a little bit since he's left Seattle. Now if you sign James Paxton, that five spot again,

[00:21:35] that five spot will be occupied by Paxton and then probably Robbie Ray. Who else? Where's the other pictures going? I'll talk to that in a second. But think of this, think of this. This is how your five spot would be structured.

[00:21:48] You would be hoping you can get a good half season out of James Paxton and then Robbie Ray's coming back after the All-Star break and because you're paying him a lot of money, he's definitely going back in that spot and you would essentially be having two pictures

[00:22:03] that you're going to need to be very careful with when it comes to making sure they don't get hurt. Remember Robbie Ray is going to be however many months off of Tommy John, but he's still going to be fresh off rehab

[00:22:15] and when those guys are fresh off rehab, you don't extend them all the way. Robbie will be probably on a pitch limit and innings limit over the final two months of the season while they're going to monitor him very carefully and make sure he gets the offseason healthy

[00:22:31] and with James Paxton's injury history, that's going to be the exact same thing. So there's going to be a microscope on that number five spot that can we get 32 healthy starts out of James Paxton and Robbie Ray? If the answer to that question is yes,

[00:22:46] then I think you make this signing because what will happen after this I think will benefit the Mariners now and in the future. I would throw Emerson Hancock into that five spot too but he's got the same issues that Paxton and Ray do

[00:22:58] in the sense that he has endured injuries. So that's three guys who could occupy the spot and by signing James Paxton, you are not putting a ton of pressure on Emerson Hancock, a guy who's made three big league starts and has had injury problems of his own

[00:23:11] to be that guy at the back end of the rotation. But if things go the way they usually go in a season where you need a lot of starting pitching, we will probably see Emerson Hancock at some point in the majors throwing in the rotation for the Mariners

[00:23:23] in 2024. So if you want to throw him into the mix too, I would but you need these guys to be healthy. Now if this signing gets made like let's just be flat out and simple. I'm going to be a little bit more concentrated

[00:23:36] and my bet would be on it's going to be one of Bryce Miller or Brian Wu. Now before we get to the scenario of if those guys get traded, what would the return be? Let's hear a quick word from Better Health. Is something interfering with your happiness

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[00:25:00] It's packed in to be their number five starter. You have to trade one of Bryce Miller or Brian Rue. Bryce Miller or Brian Will. Lyle, what could they get back for those guys now? A ton. Have you seen what the starting picture market is this winter?

[00:25:16] It's ridiculous. Let me give people a couple of examples. Frankie Montas was awful after he got traded from the A's to the Yankees in 2022. He missed basically all of the A's in 2023 and the Reds signed him to a one year deal for $16 million. Chris Sale

[00:25:36] is owed 27.5 million bucks is coming off injury issues is older now. We'll see if he's as effective now. The Red Sox just got back a second baseman in von Grissom with very good upside and six years of club control. Like you want to keep going down the list?

[00:25:52] Lucas Gialito just got nearly 20 million bucks a year. He sucked. He was so bad. Gialito, yeah. He got two years. Two years for $38.5 million. So he got nearly 20 million bucks a year. That's what the bottom end of the starting pitching market is getting.

[00:26:08] You want to talk about Bryce Miller, Brian Woo, two guys who have not started their service clocks yet have shown crazy upside, have really good stuff and people are vying for young starting pitching. Oh, that price is getting jacked up. And how about a starter in

[00:26:24] Google who has been a starter for one full season, one full season in his prime. He has been a starter and he got three years guaranteed at $15 million a pop. That's pretty crazy. Now here's what I propose to you. The price for Brian Miller and Bryce

[00:26:42] Woo very well made. Flip those around. Bryce Miller and Brian Woo. There we go. Tripping over myself. I've talked too much today. If the price really is, it's probably not two all stars. That's a lot. Two all stars is a stretch. But two big league bats

[00:27:02] two top tier hitting prospects that very well could be the price but as I said to you that is only the price of a team is willing to give up for it. So if their mariners tell the Tampa Bay Rays, hey, we

[00:27:16] have Brian Woo available. We would like Yandie Diaz and Randy Arosa and we will take every cent they are owed for the next however many seasons they're under contract. We'll take them on and you get Brian Woo and we'll give you another prospect as well

[00:27:30] to throw in there because that's probably how it would balance out. Like the race say no to that, that's not the price. Unfortunately, even if that's what we think Brian Woo is worth, that's not the price. What if you go to the Orioles

[00:27:41] and what if you walk up to what's his name, Michael Ius? Michael Ius. You walk up to Michael Ius and you say, hey, Mike, I will give you Bryce Miller but in return we want Heston Kerstad and we want Colby Mayo as well who's

[00:27:57] MLB ready at AAA right now for the Orioles on the infield and then Heston Kerstad is a stud and he's supposed to bash in the big leagues. If Michael Ius says no, unfortunately that's not the price. So we're going to see what the market will dictate with this

[00:28:13] because they very well could be worth that but that's a lot to ask a team to give up for something I told you I don't even know if it's proven yet in those two starting pitchers. Then I would tell you if that's not the price, the Mariners

[00:28:27] probably are not trading them and in that case they would sign James Paxton simply for starting pitcher depth which is fine the Mariners can use starting pitcher depth most teams can use starting pitching depth and in that scenario if everybody's even healthy at all at the point

[00:28:41] the Robbie Ray comes back then you could use Paxton as a long reliever again if you want to use a six man rotation at some point to manage some innings for Woo and Miller you could do that and have an extra guy right at your side

[00:28:55] so there's a few things they could do with this however I would opt to go with the side of if they're going to sign James Paxton not only is a trade likely to happen for one of those arms but they probably

[00:29:07] feel like they have something close to in place otherwise I bet you they wouldn't be this serious about it again there are things Paxton could do even if there's no trade on the table he could just be depth, he could help with a six man rotation

[00:29:19] but I would guess if they're going to pay 8 to 12 million for James Paxton which is probably what he's going to cost because again the starting pitcher market's nuts you're not signing Paxton for 2 million bucks if they're going to sign Paxton I bet you there is something close

[00:29:33] to getting over the finish line with a trade especially given the Mariners budget this off season you can't just go around throwing 12 million dollars, bitch all you want like we have complained about the payroll but if they're going to add 12 million

[00:29:45] dollars of payroll in someone who they can't even guarantee you'll start 15 games this year there is some there better be something else lined up right there because that's the only way this makes sense to label yourself as a contender and someone that you say we're getting

[00:29:59] better this off season like that would be it, swing a trade like that would make you better this off season and the best part about this it makes you better be on to this season too which is what Jerry keeps harping about right he keeps harping

[00:30:13] we want to be sustainable, we want to be young we want to have young exciting athletic players well this allows you to do that if you're able to pull this off this hinges on James Paxton saying yes he might have not said yes yet

[00:30:27] but the information just does not get out it does not get out without players approval I mean it's not like some fan was like peeking up into John Stanton's box at the winter classic and cracking her up to nothing it's like

[00:30:43] wonder if John Stanton is up there, brought my binoculars it's like search in, search in, search in oh is that a is that a maple leaf tattoo on his left arm what oh it's James Paxton up there is there an eagle on his shoulder potentially

[00:31:01] I wouldn't have been shocked if someone was actually trying to stalk John Stanton's owner suite I think that would have been very odd brand people were like this is the only way I'm getting into T-Mobile part this off season to try and make my stamp

[00:31:13] on something that's been frustrating let's see what Johnny Boyz up to yeah you're right it's not some fan that took a picture saying is this big maple in the owner suite it's not some fan that posted it no it's a real report so I would say this

[00:31:30] I've pieced this out into two different proposals let's say it's the raise we've heard the raise a lot let's say they're interested I mean Yandee D as in Randy Rosarano would be an unreal return I would be jumping for joy if they got both of those guys

[00:31:44] in a trade for one arm but the one I cooked up was still Parades and Randy which are still two phenomenal players again Esauk Parades talk about his bad at ball profile all you want he led third baseman in WRC plus the passier let it

[00:31:58] it's a very good offensive position I would say a trade like that would probably cost one of the arms and then would probably cost some prospects the guys I threw in and in a potential prospect trade I said Gabby Gonzalez and I said Michael

[00:32:12] Royo so that's a high upside infielder high upside outfielder they're both inside the Mariners top ten it would probably cost a little bit more to get proven bats like that but if it's guys that are on the similar scale to where Miller and Wu are

[00:32:24] so you want to go over to the Orioles here and let's say Heston cursed out in Kobe Mayo or maybe in the Mariners world let's say they like Jordan Westberg better than Kobe Mayo and it was cursed out in Westberg I think that's

[00:32:36] that would just cost the arm I don't think that would cost any prospects again look at what the market has been the Mariners are not going to have to trade some hall to get back I mean sorry let me rephrase that statement it is a hall

[00:32:50] to give up one of these young arms both of these guys are incredible talent with really high upside we've seen the splitter from Rice Miller this winter the Mariners will be giving up a hall but to also get a hall and to get the hall of an infielder

[00:33:02] and outfielder at two positions of need with six years of club control that is a lot for the Mariners to get back I don't think it's going to cost more than one arm look at what the market has been this is the price for pitching

[00:33:12] so I think if they went to the Orioles and wanted two of those guys there's a world they could get them and the key there is unproven because if you walked up to the Orioles and you said well I want Gunnar Henderson

[00:33:24] if they said yes to that that's one for one flat out if that it might it might I think that trade just gets shut down I think the Orioles were saying no chance we're going to probably not he'll be nice I think you would

[00:33:38] he would fit right in but you're right I don't think they ever say yes and that's I'm going to come back to my point about the Mariners offering up these two arms because we know what they value and we know what the market values

[00:33:50] them at that is a lot for a team to give up like the race want to win next year like flat out they want to win next year and trading Randy and Esauk Parades for again not a proven starter like let's let's be very clear

[00:34:06] Bryce Miller and Brian will have shown you some great things on the mound they have shown you they have the ability to be big league starters over months this past season now the key word there is ability they have shown you the ability

[00:34:20] but they are not proven by any stretch they have not pitched enough to get the proven label thrown on them so that is a huge risk for these teams to give up multiple big league caliber bats for someone you can't guarantee is a success you can't as

[00:34:38] as high as we are on them you cannot guarantee that and that will come around to the teams making having to make the ultimate decision whether they feel like that the market rate is worth it and if they don't feel like the market rate is worth it

[00:34:52] then unfortunately that's not the market for Bryce Miller and Brian will yeah I agree with all that I'm just sitting here where was I going with this thought I had something pop into my head

[00:35:06] alright I'll circle back to it but oh I know what I was going to say your point about being proven George Kirby after two years is now proven what Logan Gilbert did after 2022 paired with 2021 by that point in 2023 he was proven

[00:35:20] Bryce Miller and Brian will are very good and they have like you said they've shown the ability to be really good starting pitchers I think another year under their belt is how you can really justify prove it because Brian will was on a

[00:35:32] very short endings limit this year they had to really manage them Bryce Miller was really good at the start and then had his hills and valleys at points of the year which is pretty normal for a rookie I think if they have another good year

[00:35:42] to each of them then they are truly proven but just because they are not technically as proven as Kirby and Gilbert doesn't mean they don't warrant a lot of value because again I don't think the Mariners are making this trade unless they are really getting a haul back

[00:35:56] you've heard Ryan Divish report they don't really want to trade one of these starters they have no it's not that they don't have an incentive to but it's not like they're jumping at the bit to do it I think they're really going to have to be

[00:36:08] blown away to deal one of these guys off and if they do it's going to be a haul is there a more realistic like is there a better trade option in baseball that's realistic for any team is there a more valuable trade asset I'm trying to think

[00:36:22] out there I was thinking if the Phillies had Andrew Painter that's his name right healthy and he's 20 use the number one pitching prospect last year and but he's had Tommy John he's still recovering if he pitched in the big leagues output him over him but otherwise

[00:36:40] who? Grayson Rodriguez and you know he's had he's had injury problems he's had his ups and downs just like any rookie starter has if you're a team that truly believes what a lot of the baseball world seems to believe what a lot of scouts appear

[00:36:54] to believe that Brian Wu truly has front line stuff and has the ability to pitch toward the top of the rotation when he's in his prime then no and if you believe that Bryce Miller is like that then also no because how are

[00:37:08] you where in the world else are you getting a guy that has six years of club control and is shown flashes of being a really good big league starter with high upside that's on the market that doesn't happen it's only happening

[00:37:20] with the Mariners because their pitching is so ridiculous and guys like Grayson Rodriguez are not on the market because the Orioles don't have pitching there's a reason we're proposing this trade what are the odds we think this happens now what do we think I would say James

[00:37:38] Paxton is currently not signed if James Paxton where we sit this second I would say more like 20 to 25 percent if Paxton gets signed probably somewhere in the 50 to 60 percent range I was going to be a little higher I was going to say especially since that information got out

[00:38:00] 50 percent right now okay and if the information wasn't out then we'd probably still be very low because all we have is Jerry's words to go on but with the information we've been given like it just seems like something's going to happen it just this stuff is not

[00:38:18] like everything is calculated everything everything is calculated Shohei Otani was on a fake plane because it was calculated calculated to make the Dodgers increase their offer by 100 million dollars like that's why these things happen the amount of information that goes on behind the scenes

[00:38:40] that we have no idea about like the average fan who doesn't really care about these things you'd be kind of surprised the amount of things that are known behind the scenes that the public never knows about because they just never become public and the little tid bits

[00:38:54] of information that agents and players and owners and GMs make public are for strategic reasons I'd love to be a fly on the wall for a week inside the Mariners front office walls during the off season I just love to be a fly on the wall

[00:39:10] you just hear Jerry just in the front office group just again I don't know exactly what goes into their day-to-day but assuming they are working on potential off season acquisitions daily just hearing the names that get thrown out there the contracts that might be getting thrown out there

[00:39:24] what agents are saying what other teams are saying I would soak it all up is two people who are just baseball nuts like we are so invested in the Mariners I'd love to sit and be a fly on the wall

[00:39:34] for a week and just hear all that stuff I do there's one other thing I wanted to throw out as you say there's also one other team that we didn't mention the Cincinnati Reds

[00:39:44] that's not the other team I was going to mention I was going to say Cardinals yeah the Cardinals are okay so that's two other teams same division so close enough it would not be Jonathan India no I would nope I don't approve

[00:39:58] I don't I flat out just say no absolutely the call is ended it is over you know what let me just add on if Bryce Miller or Brian Wu is traded for Jonathan India tune into that podcast please yeah the other options where they could

[00:40:16] this has been thrown out there they could trade back for Noel V. Martay and Spencer Steer I think that's not as enticing as the first two options we listed but that's one out there that might be a little on the low end oh dog

[00:40:32] you get Jake Fraley back that honestly that honestly is not the worst idea in the world Jake Fraley he does everything you want so Noel V. Martay, Spencer, Steer, Jake Fraley yeah I mean you fill an outfield spot two infield spots Jake hits

[00:40:50] he hits now he hit this year I mean he hit a little bit with the Mariners in 21 too so yeah sure and he walked he would have a spot yeah he would look Noel V. had a good little stint in the majors when he got up now

[00:41:06] is it going to sustain is he really going to live up to that top 20 prospect status he once upon a time had or is this just a flash in the pan we'll see yeah the Reds would be interesting the Cardinals again circle back to all those

[00:41:18] same names Brennan Donovan Nolan Gorman maybe if the Mariners threw in some other prospects again maybe Jordan Walker's on the table all of a sudden although I bet you the Cardinals probably steer away from trying to from trading him but

[00:41:32] there are some teams that make a lot of sense is is there a mystery team out there we're not thinking about like all four of those teams make sense and there's teams that there are teams that have been connected with the Mariners this winter

[00:41:42] that was the next question I was going to ask before you threw out that last thing in years is is there any other teams out there that might be slept on there are because there are a bunch of teams that need

[00:41:52] starting pitching the problem is they couldn't afford it Mariners would never say yes well we're listing teams that have the assets and the things the Mariners need and guys that we think are available actually opposed to teams that opposed to teams that

[00:42:08] have a need at starting pitching but don't have any fits for the Mariners like when wouldn't you love to swap for Josh Young the Rangers wouldn't that be great like the Rangers need starting pitching next season but they're never going to give up

[00:42:22] Josh Young so the conversation just ends and the Mariners are not making that trade in division no they're not and the Rangers wouldn't either because they love Josh Young I mean the dude started at third in the All-Star game at the beginning of the offseason I might have

[00:42:36] thrown the Dodgers out there but something tells me their need for starting pitching is kind of waned in recent weeks I think they like proven starters hmm yeah I think they can I think they can they can pay up I was going to say with

[00:42:50] something like Miller or Woo for James Outman and maybe somebody else makes some sense at the beginning of the offseason no do the Dodgers even have the prospects to trade anymore I don't think so they gave them up yeah Outman would be a good start

[00:43:06] he put up four wins as an outfielder in his rookie year but it would probably cost a little bit more than that right for a starting pitcher with six years of control yeah so that that one probably again this is just a total hypothetical

[00:43:18] because the Dodgers do not need starting pitching anymore it's funny when you stack your roster full of elite big league players you just don't really have room for your young position players to showcase themselves

[00:43:28] and it's really unfortunate because you and I will never know if the Dodgers actually have young players and young players who are big league ready that would make good trade fits we don't know because the Dodgers like you know what we're just going to try and win instead

[00:43:40] one of the few we've gotten to see is Outman and the Dodgers being the Dodgers a guy who was not some raved about prospect he was a late round draft pick he was taken in the 8th, 9th, 10th round and now he is a

[00:43:54] four win outfielder and probably sticking in center field for a long time for the Dodgers yeah who else could maybe think about starting pitching oh my god have you seen any of this red sox twitter stuff the last few days no I haven't

[00:44:08] I don't know what they're sipping over there in Boston but I have seen some red sox tweets that are just insanity like first off they think like Logan Gilbert is very much expendable for the Mariners and the packages that they're trying to put together to send back

[00:44:26] are they in their mind they think is great they've been making arguments for Cutter Crawford who by the way put up an 0.1 B war as a rookie and said him and like one other guy would probably do it for Logan Gilbert in fact they've been making

[00:44:42] points saying if Cutter Crawford was in Seattle people would rave about him like he's an ace I was like I don't think that's how it works wow I didn't know I don't know Logan Gilbert was so popular in Boston

[00:44:56] dude again I don't know what these red sox fans have been sipping but they're off the rocker with some of these ideas I felt like cleaned all the tea out of the harbor anyways stupid yeah that's funny I do don't you love reddit

[00:45:12] is that where you found that no that was twitter it's very much on twitter wow okay well I could only imagine what the reddit the reddit discussion would be man what who else needs starters I mean there's the Braves need starters but I don't know who they're trading

[00:45:28] I don't think they trade much of anybody in that starting nine for starter unless they you think they'd get rid of Ozzy Albies but they just got rid of Von Grissom so I don't know the place I can base in that scenario exactly so in terms of contenders

[00:45:42] and teams you would be okay sending to and you also gotta consider the again you gotta consider the return so most of the teams like right away like the A's could use Brian Woo, Lyle do you don't want Tony Kemp okay well if you're

[00:45:58] throwing out teams like that the Rockies need starters the if you want to go that route sure well Pirates actually isn't quite as terrible no it's not because they're actually building something and getting a lot better that's okay that's probably a bad example

[00:46:12] but yeah the Rockies, the A's the Angels need starting pitching like if you want to go down that route sure but I don't think that's exactly where the Mariners are targeting their fortune you're telling me you don't want Logan Ohopi yeah because this team needs

[00:46:26] more catchers after signing Mitch Garver who's not really gonna catch and trading for Sebi's of all this winner and already having Cal Raleigh could Toronto make some sense no I mean they kind of have some starting pitching in place I'm just thinking about how they have bats

[00:46:44] so is that like a boba shed for Brian Woo I mean the Mariners would have to give up more than that they would probably have to do that so Brian Woo in a top 5 prospect for boba shed yeah if not more to be honest that would work

[00:47:04] I don't know if Vlad would cost quite as much because he doesn't play a premier position and hasn't had a good great offensive season in two years but you'd probably still need to give up another prospect on top of that I mean that's not a terrible

[00:47:18] that's not a terrible thing but I just don't know if they're giving up on those guys this off season especially since they didn't land the big fish and if every Belanger doesn't sign there then they would be actively making their lineup worse while

[00:47:32] in theory if everything works out with Brian and Laura Bryce Miller the rotation is getting better but it very well might not it might not and look Toronto has a good rotation already I mean it's a playoff level rotation but young starting pitching can do a lot

[00:47:48] and that's a team that can still use more starters again Gosmin is great, Berrios is locked up on a contract you still have Yusei Kukuchi but Alec Minoa you have no idea like there are spots to fill in that rotation

[00:48:02] they don't have the depth that the Mariners have so if they were serious about adding pitching maybe yeah there's teams out there that could use it I'm sure we could spitball a few more if we really wanted to but I think at the end of this hypothetical conversation

[00:48:16] I think the two teams that make the most sense that are in the A level tier would be the Rays and the Orioles and the next tier down would be the Cardinals and the Reds I will all concur with that which would you prefer? it's the Rays right?

[00:48:32] it has to be because those guys are proven they are their stars that make you better right now again say what you want to say about Esauk Parades oh yeah it's bad at ball profile we know like it's been talked about enough but you know what WRC Plus

[00:48:46] cuts through a lot of ballpark factor stuff so I'm not saying there's no concerns with Parades but if you're getting the guy who led third baseman in WRC Plus to play a position of very very much need right now and let me just cut to the chase here

[00:49:00] if you want to win if you want to see this team get significantly better at this point this needs to happen this needs to happen they need to go do this to take that next step it's gonna have to happen it's gonna suck

[00:49:16] Brian Woo could be starting an all-star game in three years that's how good he is he could be but if you want this to happen this needs to this has to happen and this needs to happen this offseason as well and yeah it might be uncomfortable

[00:49:28] if the Mariners have to go out there trade Brian Woo and hey maybe they have to trade Cole Emerson as well to the race because that's what the price is maybe they have to do that but at this point you gotta do what you gotta do because

[00:49:44] the bill has come the time is right freaking now right now unhug your prospects and go make the moves boom and if the raise really you're not gonna budge then go to the Orioles it's not quite the proven bats

[00:50:00] of the raise but you know what if you get Heston Kirstad for six years and either Kobe Mayo or Jordan Westberg for six years if that's the package you have to do it you have a surplus of pitching and not enough hitting you cannot run

[00:50:14] Luis Sirius out there is your third baseman every day for 162 games you cannot have what is currently projected in right field to be your answer for a team that claims to be contending for a world series again like what a bunch of utility guys and other outfielders

[00:50:32] that you can throw into the mix in right field being your solution that's not gonna work no it's not and if you need a refresher check out our Friday episode please we have laid out the Mariners lineup spot by spot

[00:50:46] and you sit there and you look and it's like it's not a playoff lineup I know we said we did say some nice things but they're not a playoff lineup that's not a playoff lineup no it's not but you know what would make the Mariners

[00:51:00] a playoff lineup if they go make one of these moves especially if it's the raise I'm interested to see how like how the Orioles trade would work out this season like would they be better this year with those guys this year like better than the current

[00:51:16] group yes better than last year with those Orioles guys this season it's not a guarantee those guys may have some learning to do Kobe Mayo has crushed the minor leagues but we know it's a big jump we saw it with Jared Kalnick we've seen it

[00:51:32] with other guys that have made their way to the big leagues from the minors just because they crushed it in the minor leagues doesn't mean it's an immediate transition but I think that it in long term absolutely makes them better

[00:51:42] and if you mean worse in the sense of they won 88 games last year could they win somewhere from 86 to 88 maybe 89 again with this roster if that's all they do and get into the playoffs and have a run the way the Diamondbacks did

[00:51:56] who got in with less wins than the Mariners sure are you locking in that this roster with the Orioles trade would be better than the Mariners no because Cursedad and Mayo both have developing to do and they're not totally proven yet and you again

[00:52:10] then you would be your outfield would be the Dom, Cursedad and Julio is Julio still the youngest of those three yeah well Cursedad Cursedad was the number two pick again out of college out of Arkansas I know that is so funny

[00:52:30] to think about it's like yep not worried about the 23 year old but the other two watch out again I think Dom is going to have a good year I really do like I think he's going to click this year

[00:52:42] and I think Cursedad has a chance to have a good year too but it doesn't guarantee that they are going to be better than last year correct it doesn't and we can't unfortunately guarantee either of those guys are going to be good because we just haven't seen it

[00:52:56] at the big league level you can crush the minors all you want you can crush triple A all you want needs to happen at the big league level and we haven't seen it let me throw out this potential lineup as we start to close out the show

[00:53:10] let's say they make the trade with the Rays JP leads off Julio hits second you've got let's put a Rosa Raina third let's put Cal fourth Parades fifth Garver sixth Kanzon set or Typhra and seventh Kanzon eighth Josh Rojas ninth I like that that checks out like

[00:53:34] here are the things that lineup does I mean first of all the depth of the lineup you can keep the left right mix at least somewhat if Mitch Garver is batting sixth that's pretty good and that's what he should be doing

[00:53:48] again if they make a couple more impact moves that's where Garver should be hitting and he's a good hitter but you know where he hit for the Rangers right around there fourth he was hitting toward the middle to bottom end of the lineup and was really good

[00:54:02] I'm down I'm down you don't have to convince me of that I'm I will wish Brian Wu the best of luck in his endeavors to Tampa Bay if they can pull that off yeah or Bryce Miller but yeah yeah or Bryce Miller that makes the Mariners better

[00:54:19] both from last season and into the future as well Parades has four years of control Randy's got three you can always extend them in a couple years if you're interested in extension but for the that is that fits the window right until all these guys start to get

[00:54:35] really expensive those are guys that are in this window it fits the if again it fits both the future and current window which is really what you want and it's not it's not even overly expensive like if we get bitching complain about money that money should

[00:54:53] not be an issue with that lineup anyway you shouldn't have to worry about oh we don't have enough cash to pay any for everyone really not with that lineup and it would still be good you'd still be great you'd still be a playoff caliber team

[00:55:07] so I don't want to hear any of that if that happens it should not happen they've got to do something and if they go sign James Paxton I would tell people to buckle up because while it's not going to be a 100% guarantee they make a trade

[00:55:23] I would expect it at that point I would expect something I think that with all that being said just about wraps up this edition of the marine layer podcast you guys know the drill if you want to listen to the full form podcast

[00:55:37] you can do so on Apple, Spotify, Google and Amazon wherever you get your audio pods download our episodes leave us a 5 star review follow the show if you're not already doing so already we're going to do a mailbag episode on Friday by the way so sending your questions

[00:55:51] over the next day or so if you've got any and wanted any of those questions answered for Friday watch the full video podcast on YouTube, like, comment, subscribe over there and on social media we're on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube Shorts at Marine Layer

[00:56:05] Pied that's TJ, I'm Lyle as always we thank you guys for tuning in we'll talk to you soon