Episode 91: Reacting To The Mariners Trading Robbie Ray, Acquiring Mitch Haniger And Others

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[00:00:30] Welcome to episode number 91 of the Marine Layer Podcast.

[00:00:33] The Mariners swing a couple of trades.

[00:00:35] Mitch Hanniger is home in Seattle.

[00:00:38] Robbie Ray is off to San Francisco,

[00:00:40] and the Mariners also acquire Luke Raylee

[00:00:42] from the Tampa Bay Rays.

[00:00:43] We'll react.

[00:01:00] Let's get it rolling.

[00:01:18] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast,

[00:01:21] part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network recording here late at night

[00:01:26] on Friday, January 5th.

[00:01:28] Timing, Jerry, the ultimate timing in the world.

[00:01:32] You and I were talking in between episodes like, hey,

[00:01:37] if there is a day that Jerry DePoto is not allowed to make a move,

[00:01:41] it is on Friday.

[00:01:42] You're moving to the East Coast.

[00:01:44] I have a busy workday.

[00:01:45] Jerry, take Friday off, pal.

[00:01:48] Go for a walk, get some fresh air, turn the phone off.

[00:01:53] He didn't listen.

[00:01:54] The Mariners swing not one but two trades today.

[00:01:57] And it's intriguing.

[00:02:02] So one of our followers is messing with us.

[00:02:04] I think one of our listeners has some relationship with Jerry DePoto,

[00:02:07] and they called him up yesterday and said, hey,

[00:02:09] those Marine Layer Podcast guys, well,

[00:02:11] one of them is going to be on a flight all day.

[00:02:13] One of them's got a jam-packed workday.

[00:02:14] So you're making a trade today.

[00:02:17] You're going to piss those guys off on purpose just for us to sit here

[00:02:19] and say, you know, Jerry,

[00:02:21] some people's priorities are more important than others.

[00:02:23] Oh, you've got deals in place?

[00:02:25] Well, we've got things to do.

[00:02:27] So thank you for making today such...

[00:02:32] I'm not even going to say hell.

[00:02:33] Do we love sitting here and recording these episodes?

[00:02:35] Of course we do.

[00:02:35] So I'm not going to say hell.

[00:02:36] I just would have rather not been mid-flight

[00:02:39] and you've been mid-radio show when this went down.

[00:02:43] We're always up for Mariners trades usually,

[00:02:45] but maybe not in the middle of a flight in a radio show.

[00:02:49] Yeah, you don't want to receive the message of a trade with me

[00:02:53] copying and pasting the text of Ken Rosenthal's tweets

[00:02:57] and sending them to you because that's the only way you could see it.

[00:02:59] I mean, literally, that's how you find out.

[00:03:02] Okay, so here's how it went.

[00:03:05] I'm on the plane.

[00:03:06] I have free texting on the plane so I can text and send iMessages.

[00:03:10] I just can't go on social media,

[00:03:12] but you can still get some updates

[00:03:16] if you have notifications on on Twitter, on Instagram, whatever.

[00:03:20] So I saw like the first three words of a pass and tweet

[00:03:24] and saying breaking and I saw Mariners in there

[00:03:26] and I just started all caps texting you texting my brother texting

[00:03:30] to call my friends.

[00:03:30] I'm like, I cannot see these.

[00:03:32] I cannot see what's going on.

[00:03:34] Send me this right now.

[00:03:35] Like I'm getting pissed off.

[00:03:36] I was like, what the hell is going on?

[00:03:38] And then we found out.

[00:03:40] So let me tell you Mariners fans do not fly on a plane

[00:03:45] when a trade goes down because it is not fun.

[00:03:48] You are scrambling for any information you can.

[00:03:51] And I'll tell you what, shout out to TJ

[00:03:53] that he's usually on his phone and is a quick responder

[00:03:55] because otherwise I would have been sitting on that flight

[00:03:57] just wondering what in the world is going on.

[00:03:59] Okay, well, I'm glad you had a good flight.

[00:04:01] I'm glad you made it to the East Coast okay.

[00:04:04] But the trades themselves very interesting

[00:04:08] because as we sit today, here's what the trades happen.

[00:04:11] Here's what happened.

[00:04:12] So the Mariners trade Robbie Ray

[00:04:13] and his contract to the San Francisco Giants.

[00:04:16] They get back Mitch Henniger and Anthony Desclifani

[00:04:19] who's a starting pitcher.

[00:04:20] He's going to pitch out of the bullpen

[00:04:22] be sort of a swingman Chris Flexen type for the Mariners

[00:04:25] and then directly after that, the Mariners trade

[00:04:28] Jose Caballero to the Tampa Bay Rays

[00:04:30] and in exchange they get Luke Rayleigh back

[00:04:33] who's in his technically second year of service time.

[00:04:36] They'll have five years of control over him.

[00:04:38] He mashes.

[00:04:39] He's going to play the outfield.

[00:04:40] He can play first base as well, which is key.

[00:04:42] Those are the two trades.

[00:04:44] The Mariners come out payroll neutral,

[00:04:47] essentially cash neutral in this trade.

[00:04:50] The Giants also sending $6 million over to the Mariners

[00:04:53] in that trade because the Mariners take $29 million

[00:04:57] of payroll this season and send 23 the Giants way

[00:05:01] and the Giants offset that with cash.

[00:05:04] So the Mariners sit in the same payroll situation

[00:05:07] that they had that they were at before this trade

[00:05:10] and they upgraded two outfield spots.

[00:05:13] They got starting pitching depth.

[00:05:18] Yeah, that's it.

[00:05:19] So two outfield spots and starting pitching depth

[00:05:22] and they freed up $9.5 million next season

[00:05:26] from Robbie Ray's contract and they freed up $25 million

[00:05:30] of Robbie Ray's contract in the 2026 season.

[00:05:33] So in total, that's about $34.5 million worth

[00:05:38] of future savings for the Mariners,

[00:05:39] two outfield upgrades and starting pitching depth

[00:05:43] which is as valuable as ever.

[00:05:46] Let's start with the first trade.

[00:05:48] Mitch is back.

[00:05:50] That's good.

[00:05:51] Happy that Mitch is back.

[00:05:53] Doesn't seem like they're going to rely on Mitch

[00:05:56] quite as much in this 2024 season.

[00:05:58] I'm guessing Mitch Hanegr is coming back

[00:06:01] to pair up with Dominic Kanzon.

[00:06:04] That seems right, especially because Mitch

[00:06:05] hasn't really hit righties pretty much the last few years

[00:06:08] or if he has it hasn't been at the level

[00:06:10] that would warrant him playing every day.

[00:06:13] I think we've seen Dom hit righties.

[00:06:14] What Mitch does still do is he can hit lefties.

[00:06:16] So if he can play the outfield and he can hit

[00:06:19] against left-handed pitching, which is he has proven to do.

[00:06:22] I mean, look what he did in 21.

[00:06:23] He OPSed over 900 against left-handed pitching.

[00:06:26] So if he can be the right-handed bat of the platoon,

[00:06:29] which the Mariners said they wanted to add, right?

[00:06:31] They said we want somebody to pair in the outfield

[00:06:33] to be the platoon bat against left-handed hitters.

[00:06:36] I don't think any of us thought that was going

[00:06:37] to be Mitch Hanegr.

[00:06:38] We threw out the Connor Joe idea on our last show.

[00:06:40] We thrown in a couple other ideas.

[00:06:43] But I don't think anybody thought it was going to be Mitch,

[00:06:44] which is why so impossible to predict Jerry DePoto trades.

[00:06:47] He'll do things that you least expect.

[00:06:50] But in terms of Mitch being back, you're right.

[00:06:52] He is not likely going to be relied on to play every day.

[00:06:55] He will have more of a role and a limited role.

[00:06:58] But that's okay because he has battled injuries.

[00:07:01] He is getting older.

[00:07:01] He's now 33.

[00:07:03] I think this makes a little bit more sense

[00:07:05] that you can use Mitch for what he's good at

[00:07:07] and try to preserve his health while also improving the offense.

[00:07:11] So much for our platoon statement.

[00:07:12] I mean, that's just out the window now.

[00:07:14] I guess Jerry told us to fuck off.

[00:07:17] Well, he now has the platoon bat, but it's Mitch.

[00:07:21] Well, that's not the only platoon.

[00:07:23] We said one.

[00:07:24] Oh, oh, oh.

[00:07:25] You mean in total for the team?

[00:07:26] Yeah, in total.

[00:07:28] That could be, it's three at least right now.

[00:07:32] So we've got second base.

[00:07:34] We've got left field.

[00:07:36] And right field.

[00:07:38] Yeah, and right field.

[00:07:39] Rayleigh's a platoon.

[00:07:41] The stat on Rayleigh, we'll get to him.

[00:07:42] 363 out of his 406 plate appearances were against Reides.

[00:07:48] That's platoon.

[00:07:49] Yeah.

[00:07:49] Yes, that is.

[00:07:50] So that's unfortunate.

[00:07:52] So Jerry has tripled our request on platoons this off season.

[00:07:56] Unfortunate, but as long as it makes the Mariners better,

[00:08:01] I don't know how much we can complain.

[00:08:02] And that's certainly what these trades did.

[00:08:04] I'm a little worried about Mitch staying healthy.

[00:08:07] Having him and Mitch Garver on the same roster

[00:08:10] kind of makes some people nervous.

[00:08:12] We're talking about Mitch this past season.

[00:08:14] He had by far his worst season as a full-time pro

[00:08:17] and he had issues with fractured forearm.

[00:08:20] He had an oblique issue.

[00:08:22] He had one other issue as well that landed him on the IL

[00:08:25] and he only played a little over 60 games this season.

[00:08:28] And he's getting, he's going to be 33.

[00:08:30] It just, that is not a, that's not a very trustworthy track record

[00:08:34] of injuries and he's always been injury prone

[00:08:37] and it's not going to get better as he gets older.

[00:08:40] There's hope that he can manage to offset both his strikeout rate

[00:08:45] which has really climbed.

[00:08:47] It got up to 28% last season as he gets older,

[00:08:51] as well as hoping a little bit of load managing

[00:08:53] can mitigate his injury issues and say,

[00:08:56] hey listen, Dom Kanzon, if you can go out there

[00:08:59] and have a 115 WRC plus against right-handers

[00:09:03] and then Mitch, when you're healthy,

[00:09:04] you go out there and you do the same against lefties,

[00:09:08] then we can have a very productive right field duo.

[00:09:11] And that's the hope right here and it also helps Dom Kanzon

[00:09:14] get a little bit more comfortable with the major leagues

[00:09:16] without really having a ton of pressure on him

[00:09:19] which I feel like he had last season

[00:09:21] and maybe got to him a little bit.

[00:09:23] This is going to allow him to ease in a little bit more.

[00:09:26] So I'm happy with that.

[00:09:28] And the thing is with Mitch,

[00:09:31] the money thankfully again offsets

[00:09:34] because the contract he signed with the Giants

[00:09:36] a little expensive for the current Mariners take,

[00:09:39] current Mariners taste,

[00:09:40] but with that Robbie Ray money,

[00:09:41] it essentially offsets Mitch coming on the roster in 2023.

[00:09:46] So they're able to go from essentially having Sam Hagerty

[00:09:50] or Taylor Tramiel or pick your AAA guy

[00:09:54] that you want to come up and put him in the outfield

[00:09:57] and then sit at Mitch Hannigar in there.

[00:09:58] And even with the injury issues,

[00:09:59] you're going to say,

[00:10:00] I will take that every single day of the week.

[00:10:02] So I'm happy with that.

[00:10:03] So I'm happy Mitch is there instead of some of those other guys

[00:10:06] because I think that's going to make the Mariners

[00:10:08] significantly more productive.

[00:10:10] Does it not still feel like Mitch's injuries

[00:10:13] are still freak injuries?

[00:10:14] I know he has built up the reputation for being injury prone.

[00:10:17] He's not going to avoid that at this point,

[00:10:19] but you just mentioned it.

[00:10:20] Fractured forearm oblique injury.

[00:10:23] It's not, they're not soft tissue injuries, right?

[00:10:25] Like these are, these are freak injuries.

[00:10:27] That seems like every single time that happens to him,

[00:10:29] which is crazy because that's an oblique muscle.

[00:10:33] Yeah, I guess the oblique is a muscle.

[00:10:34] It just feels like he's had so much bad luck

[00:10:36] over the years with injuries and he has,

[00:10:38] but he's also built up a reputation now

[00:10:40] for being injury prone.

[00:10:41] And it's unfortunate,

[00:10:42] but you miss games, you miss games in the Mariners

[00:10:46] now have two key contributors.

[00:10:49] So Mitch, what he's going to,

[00:10:50] if he's going to play against every single left-handed

[00:10:53] pitcher, so he'll get some righties too.

[00:10:56] But so lefties, it's about 30%.

[00:10:59] And then you throw it in there.

[00:11:00] Say Mitch plays in half the games

[00:11:01] and then you want Mitch Garver playing 70, 80% of your games

[00:11:06] at least.

[00:11:07] And a guy who's never, never proven that,

[00:11:09] that's asking a lot from key contributors.

[00:11:12] I mean, Mitch Hanners is going to hit in the middle

[00:11:13] of the lineup, maybe not fourth,

[00:11:15] but Mitch is probably hitting fifth, sixth,

[00:11:18] that lowest when he's in that lineup

[00:11:20] and then Mitch Garver is going to be hitting cleanup.

[00:11:22] That's a lot of, a lot of,

[00:11:25] a lot relied upon those two guys.

[00:11:28] And when I look at her comments and our reaction,

[00:11:31] and reaction from the fan base to this trade,

[00:11:34] that was a very serious concern with a lot of people.

[00:11:38] I don't trust Mitch Hannerger to stay healthy.

[00:11:40] Relying on Mitch Hannerger in 2024 is a bad idea

[00:11:44] because they're going to be sitting there

[00:11:45] at the All-Star break.

[00:11:46] Mitch is going to somehow be out for two months

[00:11:50] with whatever injury they decide.

[00:11:52] And the Mariners are all of a sudden going to be

[00:11:54] scrambling for another outfielder

[00:11:55] and might not have payroll to go get another outfielder.

[00:11:58] And some people think,

[00:11:59] okay, well for in the off season

[00:12:01] and we have an opportunity to go get another outfielder

[00:12:04] who's less injury prone, why didn't we go do that?

[00:12:06] Why did we go get Mitch?

[00:12:08] Well, Mitch was apparently available

[00:12:10] and the Giants were willing to take on all that money.

[00:12:12] Even if you don't agree with it, that's what happened.

[00:12:15] It all comes down to money.

[00:12:19] I just realized listening to you talk

[00:12:22] in that last talking point right there,

[00:12:23] we're going to have to really separate the whole Mitch

[00:12:25] and Mitch thing, aren't we?

[00:12:26] Because I'm used to when people say Mitch,

[00:12:29] you mean Mitch Hannerger,

[00:12:30] which is what everybody's used to that's a Mariners fan.

[00:12:32] But then you're saying Mitch, see, I knew what you meant.

[00:12:35] You would say Mitch and then Mitch Garver.

[00:12:36] I think we're going to have to,

[00:12:38] I think we're going to have to put a label on both

[00:12:39] of these guys for this year to make sure everybody

[00:12:41] knows what we're talking about.

[00:12:42] I'm assuming when you say Mitch,

[00:12:44] people know you mean Hannerger.

[00:12:45] Yes.

[00:12:46] Yeah.

[00:12:47] Although I don't know if we're going to have

[00:12:48] to start calling him Hannerger instead,

[00:12:49] which I'm not really used to.

[00:12:50] Everybody just calls him Mitch.

[00:12:52] Garver might have a nickname by the time the season rolls around.

[00:12:55] That might help us.

[00:12:56] I think it's funny, I was writing out the lineup,

[00:12:58] which once we go through all these trades,

[00:13:00] we can kind of mock what the lineup looks like.

[00:13:03] But I wrote Mitch in the four spot and then hit enter

[00:13:06] and went down to five.

[00:13:07] I was thinking I'm like, oh, that's an issue

[00:13:09] because I was like, do I put Mitch Hannerger fifth?

[00:13:11] And then it'll be like Mitch, Mitch.

[00:13:14] No, that's kind of confusing.

[00:13:16] Let me think about that again.

[00:13:18] Are these two guys going to have a nickname?

[00:13:19] Like is this pair going to have a nickname this year?

[00:13:24] They stay healthy in MASH, yes.

[00:13:26] Mitch Mashers.

[00:13:28] I like that.

[00:13:28] The Mitch Mashers.

[00:13:30] The Mitch Mashers.

[00:13:31] The Mitch Mashers.

[00:13:31] I like that.

[00:13:32] Yeah, yeah.

[00:13:33] Well, hey, we just tapped and trademarked that right here.

[00:13:36] So if you use the Mitch Mashers this year,

[00:13:39] please credit at Marine Layer Pod.

[00:13:40] Thank you.

[00:13:42] Do we want to get to Robbie right here?

[00:13:44] Yeah, we can.

[00:13:47] This was a little disappointing.

[00:13:50] The Robbie Ray experience or letting him go?

[00:13:53] Letting him go.

[00:13:54] I'm kind of disappointed.

[00:13:55] I was excited for him to come back.

[00:13:59] So you can tell everybody to take their mortgage

[00:14:01] and put it on a strikeout total again?

[00:14:03] Well, I need to make the money back somehow.

[00:14:05] I still get shit to this day about that.

[00:14:09] Maybe it's just delusion from his spring training

[00:14:13] last year and looking at that splitter

[00:14:15] and thinking, man, Robbie Ray looks evolved.

[00:14:17] He looks healthy.

[00:14:18] He looks ready to roll.

[00:14:20] And unfortunately it just didn't work out.

[00:14:22] And there's a little sliver of hope in my mind

[00:14:25] that if Robbie Ray comes back by the end of the season,

[00:14:28] he could be a real key contributor in that rotation.

[00:14:30] And when he's pitching at his best, I'm sorry,

[00:14:32] he's better than Bryce Miller and Brian Will.

[00:14:35] That's not a discussion.

[00:14:36] So if the Mariners were actually trying to make a playoff push,

[00:14:40] you would want Robbie, peak Robbie Ray starting instead of

[00:14:43] Bryce Miller and Brian Will.

[00:14:45] Instead, now the Giants are going to do that.

[00:14:47] And the Giants are going to assume the risk of $50 million

[00:14:51] combined over the 2025 and 2026 seasons

[00:14:55] and nursing Robbie back to health this season.

[00:14:58] Maybe the Mariners did not trust his medicals

[00:15:00] and did not want having to work Robbie back

[00:15:04] in a rotation that was already full of five guys.

[00:15:06] They trusted.

[00:15:08] Meanwhile, the Giants were like, hey, we actually do need rotation help.

[00:15:11] We will be willing to assume that risk.

[00:15:13] And the Mariners who are staring down the barrel of a parent financial

[00:15:17] concern saying, we can't do that.

[00:15:22] Do you think Robbie's opt out has anything to do with this?

[00:15:24] Because remember, he hasn't opt out after three years

[00:15:26] and I'm sure most of you like the two of us would probably

[00:15:28] assume well after the injury.

[00:15:30] He's not going to take the opt out.

[00:15:31] Although the starting picture market is so crazy.

[00:15:35] I don't know.

[00:15:35] Maybe he thinks he could get more money if he's healthy off

[00:15:38] the injury.

[00:15:38] So do we think the opt out has anything to do with this?

[00:15:41] Yes, I do.

[00:15:42] Because I don't think he'd take it.

[00:15:43] I think he'd just take his $50 million as absurd as the market is.

[00:15:48] So how old's Robbie going to be after this season?

[00:15:50] 32?

[00:15:52] That sounds right.

[00:15:53] So he'll be 32 coming off Tommy John.

[00:15:55] He'll pitch we think two healthy months at the end of the season.

[00:16:00] He very well could have a setback.

[00:16:01] We don't know.

[00:16:02] It's tricky coming back from injuries and we're not even taking

[00:16:06] account that he could struggle coming back for injury because

[00:16:09] he hasn't pitched in nearly a season and a half at that point.

[00:16:13] So he decides to saddle him seven.

[00:16:16] So why 50 million guaranteed?

[00:16:18] Why would I give that up?

[00:16:18] And the Mariners are like, well, Stairon at Roots sports, we don't

[00:16:22] have 50 million to pay you in the next two seasons.

[00:16:25] We don't want to we don't want to worry about that.

[00:16:28] So we're going to let another team who would be willing to

[00:16:32] pay you $50 million to take on that risk instead.

[00:16:35] If Robbie Ray was pitching at a young level, I hope I

[00:16:37] would hope the Mariners would find a way to say, all right,

[00:16:40] well, $50 million over two seasons for a Cy Young caliber

[00:16:45] pitcher seems worth it.

[00:16:47] But if the Mariners didn't think he's going to get back to

[00:16:49] that and he was going to keep aging and his stuff was going

[00:16:52] to deteriorate, then it's like, okay, well, $50 million

[00:16:55] isn't worth it.

[00:16:56] So that opt out was I think so.

[00:16:58] That's a big number considering the money they have taken

[00:17:02] off the books this off season.

[00:17:04] It's huge.

[00:17:04] It's a massive number.

[00:17:06] It is a massive number.

[00:17:08] And look, his 2022 season was fine.

[00:17:11] It wasn't all-star level or anything like that.

[00:17:13] He had his like there was a point from June till early

[00:17:16] September or so where he was really sharp, but his first

[00:17:18] two months were rocky.

[00:17:19] His last month was rocky.

[00:17:20] I'm not even talking about the tank he gave up to

[00:17:22] Yordon.

[00:17:23] I'm talking about his regular season as a whole.

[00:17:25] You got one okay season out of Robbie Ray.

[00:17:28] Then he threw just over three innings and 22 gets

[00:17:31] injured gets Tommy John and he won't be back till about

[00:17:33] August this year.

[00:17:34] And then if he gets healthy, you get two additional

[00:17:36] years of him.

[00:17:37] Maybe the Mariners saw this as look, we've got five guys

[00:17:40] we really like.

[00:17:41] We could acquire some additional depth.

[00:17:43] If we can get something back for Robbie Ray, we'll

[00:17:45] take it and shed some money as unfortunate as it is

[00:17:48] to say that these guys are still salary dumping.

[00:17:50] That is a part that plays into this along with again,

[00:17:54] how could you not love one what you saw at a

[00:17:56] Bryce Miller and Brian Wu this year?

[00:17:58] And also Jerry DePoto talking about the trade today.

[00:18:00] He said, look, we feel the calls on Miller

[00:18:03] and Wu.

[00:18:04] We're going to always be open to what others have to

[00:18:06] say about potential trades.

[00:18:07] But Jerry said, the what we were hearing in terms

[00:18:11] of what teams were offering was not what we wanted.

[00:18:13] So we shut it down.

[00:18:14] So I guess that goes back to what we talked about a

[00:18:16] couple episodes ago regarding Miller and Wu saying

[00:18:19] is the ceiling and the and the asking price sky

[00:18:22] high for these guys?

[00:18:24] Well, maybe it was maybe what the Mariners wanted

[00:18:26] and what we thought they should get was not

[00:18:28] what other teams were willing to offer.

[00:18:29] So that's the case.

[00:18:31] The Mariners said, all right, let's shed some

[00:18:32] money.

[00:18:32] If somebody's going to take Robbie Ray, we can get

[00:18:34] some offensive pieces back.

[00:18:37] It's very likely that Miller and a Miller and Wu

[00:18:40] trade was on the table first before Robbie Ray

[00:18:42] trade.

[00:18:43] That would make more sense because that nets you

[00:18:45] the best return because when we're staring today

[00:18:48] and Ken Rosenthal is like, Hey, there's a position

[00:18:50] a major league position player trade coming with

[00:18:52] the raise after this one.

[00:18:53] Yeah, I know you and I thought the exact same thing

[00:18:56] and it was not Luke Rayleigh.

[00:18:57] I mean, I thought it was Randy.

[00:18:59] I thought it was either Randy or Parade is.

[00:19:01] Yep.

[00:19:02] Or both that they were going to really hit a blockbuster

[00:19:04] because they literally just acquired a starting

[00:19:06] pitcher makes total sense.

[00:19:08] But that was not the case.

[00:19:10] But with those words from Jerry, like those guys

[00:19:13] were definitely on the block first and they

[00:19:15] were trying to gauge the market first.

[00:19:18] I don't know if he was expecting two big league

[00:19:20] bats and they were only offering one.

[00:19:22] He's like, No, I'm good because I can get a

[00:19:25] big league bat with Mitch Hannigar and I

[00:19:26] can trade Jose Caballero for another big

[00:19:28] league bat.

[00:19:29] That solves the issue.

[00:19:30] No, I keep all my young pitching.

[00:19:31] Okay, that's fine.

[00:19:33] So that's what Jerry if Jerry trust his process

[00:19:35] enough to say, Well, we set the price guy high

[00:19:38] and if you don't meet it, okay, well, I am

[00:19:40] comfortable keeping them.

[00:19:42] How about Robbie Ray and Robbie Ray?

[00:19:46] Was it what you're able to still get productive

[00:19:49] big leaguers with trading Robbie Ray and

[00:19:52] his contract away, which is a plus.

[00:19:55] Certainly.

[00:19:55] It certainly is a plus.

[00:19:57] So with that money again, the money is now

[00:20:00] it's even for this for this season.

[00:20:03] The Mariners payrolls $121 million right now

[00:20:07] after this trade.

[00:20:08] So there's still money to spend there after

[00:20:10] that trade with the Giants.

[00:20:13] Okay, you know, it's kind of it is good

[00:20:15] because the Mariners still need to add.

[00:20:16] There are still pieces that can improve on

[00:20:18] the offensive side of the ball and I don't

[00:20:20] think they're better as a team definitively

[00:20:23] than they were last year yet.

[00:20:24] So if you're trying to accomplish that,

[00:20:25] there's still more to do.

[00:20:26] Can we acknowledge for a second though?

[00:20:29] Robbie Ray's no trade clause expand expanded.

[00:20:33] What am I saying?

[00:20:34] It ended January 1st, 2024.

[00:20:38] That's the day his no trade clause ended.

[00:20:40] So like the second it ended Jerry is like, well,

[00:20:41] let's get on the ball with that and deal him away.

[00:20:46] I think Jerry knew exactly what he was doing.

[00:20:49] I do.

[00:20:50] It's like what we it's it's the same concept

[00:20:54] of the Louise Castillo.

[00:20:55] I trade idea this offseason as ludicrous as it was.

[00:20:58] It was for a certain reason to get 20 plus million

[00:21:00] dollars off the books and so they look at the same

[00:21:04] contractor Robbie Ray that funny enough, no one was

[00:21:07] no one was thinking about that with Robbie Ray

[00:21:10] because it's like, well, he's hurt.

[00:21:11] Who's going to trade for him?

[00:21:13] Well, someone did and the Giants happily took on

[00:21:16] that money instead.

[00:21:18] I've got one more point to make and then we'll

[00:21:20] get to the second trade here.

[00:21:22] Is the fact that the name the Mariners got back

[00:21:25] being Mitch Hannigar sort of putting band-aids over

[00:21:30] the wounds here in a sense because think about it.

[00:21:32] If the Mariners were getting back some other player

[00:21:35] who was super injury prone and put up a 73 WRC plus

[00:21:38] in just over 60 games last year.

[00:21:41] What would people be saying?

[00:21:42] Now, again, I love Mitch Hannigar.

[00:21:45] You love Mitch Hannigar.

[00:21:46] The fan base loves Mitch Hannigar and we know

[00:21:48] it is best.

[00:21:48] He's a really good player.

[00:21:50] I'm and I'm really happy he's back.

[00:21:52] I'm just trying to play devil's advocate here and say,

[00:21:54] well, if this was somebody else, would people be

[00:21:56] reacting differently right now?

[00:21:58] I think you know the answer to that question.

[00:22:01] Well, it's yes.

[00:22:02] It is.

[00:22:03] Yes.

[00:22:03] It's not.

[00:22:03] I don't even have to think about that.

[00:22:05] People were happy Mitch is back.

[00:22:06] The players are certainly happy Mitch is back at

[00:22:09] puts more of a smile on Cal's face than Cal.

[00:22:13] Jerry acquiring someone Cal does not know who has a 73 WRC

[00:22:17] plus and significant injury issues.

[00:22:19] Slight mitigation.

[00:22:21] Yeah.

[00:22:21] Oh, there's no doubt about it.

[00:22:23] Oh, we should probably mention like one thing about

[00:22:25] Anthony Desclothani before we move on to look.

[00:22:28] They got some rotation depth.

[00:22:30] He's going to be the sixth guy.

[00:22:31] He'll probably be the long reliever in the bullpen.

[00:22:33] You know, he was actually really good two years ago.

[00:22:35] Two years ago, he had a 317 era, but he's not that guy anymore.

[00:22:40] He struggled the last two years.

[00:22:41] He hasn't stayed on the field.

[00:22:42] So if he gives you some good work out of the bullpen

[00:22:45] is a long reliever and can step in when you need a

[00:22:48] better spot start than great.

[00:22:50] That's exactly what I think his role is going to be.

[00:22:52] He's he will start if there's injuries in the rotation.

[00:22:56] Otherwise, he's going to be Chris Flexin more expensive

[00:22:58] but Chris Flexin.

[00:23:01] Yeah, I agree with all that.

[00:23:02] Say goodbye to your credit card rewards greedy corporate

[00:23:06] mega stores led by Walmart and Target are pushing for

[00:23:09] a long Congress to take away your hard earned cash back

[00:23:13] and travel points to line their pockets.

[00:23:15] The Durbin Marshall credit card bill would enact harmful

[00:23:18] credit card routing mandates that would end credit card

[00:23:21] rewards as we know it.

[00:23:22] If you love your credit card rewards, tell your lawmakers

[00:23:26] hands off my rewards.

[00:23:28] Tell them to oppose the Durbin Marshall credit card bill.

[00:23:32] There was another trade today though.

[00:23:34] Mariners acquire Luke Rayleigh in exchange for

[00:23:36] Jose Caballero.

[00:23:37] This one was easier to digest.

[00:23:39] It is one for one straight up.

[00:23:41] Mariners get Rayleigh.

[00:23:43] Cappy goes to the raise.

[00:23:45] What was your reaction on this one?

[00:23:46] I because I know what mine was, but I'm going to toss it to

[00:23:48] you first.

[00:23:50] I just want to put a disclaimer whenever teams trade with

[00:23:52] the raise, you instantly raise your eyebrows like, okay,

[00:23:54] so why are the raise trading that player and I'm trying

[00:23:57] to figure that out with Rook.

[00:23:59] I'm trying to figure that out with Luke Rayleigh.

[00:24:01] I really can't because the raise traded a guy with a

[00:24:05] 130 WRC plus last season for Jose Caballero.

[00:24:09] Let that sink in.

[00:24:11] The raise traded a man with a 130.

[00:24:14] WRC plus last season.

[00:24:17] One of the better power hitters in baseball on a

[00:24:20] rate basis for Jose Caballero.

[00:24:23] Am I missing something?

[00:24:26] That was exactly my reaction.

[00:24:27] Actually, you are.

[00:24:28] Luke Rayleigh has five years of club control too.

[00:24:32] Hmm.

[00:24:33] Mm hmm.

[00:24:35] Making leaps minimum.

[00:24:37] Look, Jose Caballero had a nice first half last year.

[00:24:40] He put up two wins as a whole, but it turned out it

[00:24:43] seemed like it was more of a flash in the pan because his

[00:24:45] second half was not good.

[00:24:47] He wasn't really hitting.

[00:24:48] He especially was not hitting righties and he got thrown

[00:24:50] out on the base pads left and right.

[00:24:52] Maybe the raise see something in them.

[00:24:54] Maybe the raise don't like Luke Rayleigh's bad at

[00:24:56] ball profile, especially since he does strike out

[00:24:58] a decent amount.

[00:25:00] But I got to tell you what this feels early on like

[00:25:03] a win for Jerry and the Mariners with this trade.

[00:25:05] You need an outfield help.

[00:25:07] You need power in the lineup.

[00:25:09] Luke Rayleigh does both of those things.

[00:25:11] I see this as right now.

[00:25:14] Nothing but a win.

[00:25:15] The Mariners have a million utility players and I'm not

[00:25:18] truthfully sure of Jose Caballero ever puts up this level

[00:25:21] of production again.

[00:25:21] Maybe he does, but would you definitively say?

[00:25:25] Cabby's going to be a two and a half win player or

[00:25:27] better at some point in his career.

[00:25:29] Maybe, but would you definitively say it?

[00:25:31] I don't think I would.

[00:25:33] I wouldn't either.

[00:25:36] Luke Rayleigh might be a utility player too because

[00:25:38] he also plays first base.

[00:25:39] Plays multiple outfield positions and he plays first

[00:25:42] base.

[00:25:43] So technically, he could be that label.

[00:25:45] He's also a platoon bat.

[00:25:46] So that works.

[00:25:48] The thing is, he hits his platoon very well.

[00:25:51] 130 WRC plus 363 out of 406 of his plate appearances

[00:25:57] came against right handed throwers this year.

[00:25:59] And you know what?

[00:26:00] The Mariners will face 70 to 80% righties on the

[00:26:04] mount period because that's just how the distribution

[00:26:07] works among left-handers and right-handers amongst

[00:26:09] people that play baseball.

[00:26:10] So that means Luke Rayleigh is going to get a lot of

[00:26:13] playing time and if Luke Rayleigh is going to have

[00:26:15] a 130 WRC plus in Seattle, 80% of the time 70% of

[00:26:20] the time, that's a win.

[00:26:21] That's a massive win.

[00:26:23] The one thing that does make me raise my eyebrows,

[00:26:25] the fact he strikes out so much what like what

[00:26:27] happened to the philosophy of the off season of

[00:26:31] going away from strikeouts because not only does

[00:26:33] Luke Rayleigh strikes out, he strikes out a lot

[00:26:36] like 31 and a half percent of the time a lot.

[00:26:39] That's essentially bringing Jared Kellnick strikeout

[00:26:42] rate back on the Mariners.

[00:26:45] What's funny about this, if we're going to draw

[00:26:47] the comparison with Jared Kellnick, so Luke Rayleigh

[00:26:49] is essentially going to take Jared Kellnick spot.

[00:26:51] He is going to hit a bunch against righties.

[00:26:54] He's going to play in left field.

[00:26:56] Unlike Jared, he's going to play at first base.

[00:26:58] He potentially could play at first base.

[00:27:01] He's going to strike out 31 and a half percent of

[00:27:03] the time which is almost exactly what Jared

[00:27:04] strikeout rate was.

[00:27:06] He's going to hit for pretty good power like Jared

[00:27:09] as well.

[00:27:11] But most importantly, sizing up the two players.

[00:27:15] Who's going to be a better baseball player in 2024?

[00:27:18] Luke Rayleigh or Jared Kellnick?

[00:27:23] Now that Kellnick's a brave, I don't know.

[00:27:25] Are you sure this guy is not going to break out

[00:27:27] for 30 bombs in an all star appearance?

[00:27:29] I feel like he could.

[00:27:31] He could.

[00:27:32] I wouldn't put it past him.

[00:27:34] But Luke Rayleigh was definitively better than Jared

[00:27:37] Kellnick in 2023.

[00:27:38] Not clear was not close.

[00:27:40] That part's correct.

[00:27:42] Also, I feel like Rayleigh may play right field.

[00:27:44] I think like Mitch played mostly left with the Giants.

[00:27:46] I mean, maybe we're just getting nitpicky here,

[00:27:48] but I feel like you may see more of Rayleigh

[00:27:49] and right and mission left.

[00:27:53] Okay, corner outfielder.

[00:27:55] Okay, that's fine.

[00:27:56] I'm just if I'm trying to draw the picture for people,

[00:27:58] maybe I'm wrong on this, but Mitch mostly played left

[00:28:00] field in San Francisco last year.

[00:28:02] So I'm just assuming maybe his range has gone down a little

[00:28:04] bit and they're trying to preserve it.

[00:28:05] But anyway, yes, Luke Rayleigh is going to hit.

[00:28:08] He hit better than Kellnick last year.

[00:28:09] He hit for more power than Kellnick last year

[00:28:12] and he had a much better season.

[00:28:13] I mean, okay, so this is kind of a handpicked stat,

[00:28:16] but it still does mean something.

[00:28:18] The Mariners PR team tweeted this out today or yeah,

[00:28:21] they said they said Luke Rayleigh's 130 WRC plus

[00:28:24] was the ninth best among all AL left-handed hitters in 2023.

[00:28:29] So it's a little bit of a handpicked stat,

[00:28:31] but it's still it still rains true and that's that's a really

[00:28:34] good hitter that the Mariners are getting for Jose Caballero.

[00:28:39] And Jose Caballero wasn't going to have a 130 WRC plus.

[00:28:42] Let's get that out of the way.

[00:28:43] He was not going to have that kind of offensive production.

[00:28:46] So for the price of Jose Caballero and a pitcher who will

[00:28:50] not pitch 65% of the season for the Mariners, they have

[00:28:57] now upgraded again and two outfield spots and acquired

[00:29:00] a starting pitcher depth.

[00:29:02] That's like that's good.

[00:29:04] Like if we're now zooming out and looking at what those trades

[00:29:07] are, like that's a win isn't it?

[00:29:11] That has to be a win.

[00:29:12] You can argue in bad fit.

[00:29:15] You can argue and say that this Mariners team still is

[00:29:18] not good enough and I would believe you.

[00:29:21] I think this is an 88 win baseball team right now.

[00:29:24] An 88 win baseball team.

[00:29:26] They would be exactly what they are last season.

[00:29:28] You could argue they're worse.

[00:29:29] You could say 86, 85, 84.

[00:29:32] Okay.

[00:29:33] I'll believe you because we just haven't really seen it,

[00:29:37] which is why as we conclude this Luke Rayleigh discussion,

[00:29:41] it is important the Mariners continue to add because while

[00:29:46] they improve their lineup with these trades today,

[00:29:49] I still don't think they're good enough to back up their

[00:29:52] message that they think they're contenders.

[00:29:55] So how do you make them better?

[00:29:57] Does it involve trading tie for a third baseman?

[00:29:59] Rayleigh plays them first.

[00:30:00] If you trade tie, do you sign a first baseman like Aries

[00:30:03] Hoskins?

[00:30:03] Do you just keep tie and sign for a third baseman or trade

[00:30:06] some pitching depth for a third baseman?

[00:30:08] And I don't mean woo or Miller by pitching depth,

[00:30:11] but somebody else maybe Emerson Hancock.

[00:30:13] Like how do you get the team better at this point?

[00:30:15] So if we're looking at what the roster currently is,

[00:30:18] the most likely hole that would get filled is a third

[00:30:21] baseman.

[00:30:23] You're right.

[00:30:24] So the only way you would get a quality third baseman,

[00:30:27] you either a sign Matt Chapman,

[00:30:30] which I don't know if they can afford,

[00:30:32] but that's not if we're looking on the free agent market.

[00:30:36] Well, and we've highlighted that that may not be the best

[00:30:39] business decision for the Mariners.

[00:30:40] If you want to go back and listen to our Matt Chapman

[00:30:42] free agent breakdown, you can and we highlight why

[00:30:44] their concerns there.

[00:30:47] So it's Matt Chapman or trade, right?

[00:30:49] And you could trade from your farm system or you could

[00:30:52] trade tied France, whatever's value.

[00:30:54] You could still trade a starter if somebody all of a

[00:30:57] sudden meets Jerry's needs because you now have Anthony

[00:31:01] Desclifani to pitch in the five spot if you need to trade

[00:31:04] somebody and Emerson Hancock.

[00:31:06] Okay.

[00:31:07] There is still room to grow, but the Mariners are not

[00:31:11] definitively better until they do that because until

[00:31:14] then there's still just about the same team they were

[00:31:16] last year or still slightly worse.

[00:31:19] And I don't think the trades today should make anyone

[00:31:23] satisfied with what's happened.

[00:31:25] I just don't think so.

[00:31:27] I don't because I you can judge pretty much.

[00:31:31] I feel like I can judge by my instant reaction to the

[00:31:33] trade both trades today.

[00:31:37] My first initial reaction is, is what are they doing?

[00:31:41] Honestly, what like what were they what were they

[00:31:43] doing?

[00:31:44] And it calmed down a little bit as the day went on

[00:31:47] and I understand it.

[00:31:50] But if I have to say, what are you doing with a trade?

[00:31:53] Even if it turns out to be okay.

[00:31:56] That probably means there still wasn't enough there

[00:31:58] because it wasn't obvious that it was good enough.

[00:32:02] So Jerry is tasked with considerably more to do

[00:32:07] considerably more meaning one nice move.

[00:32:10] Nice move because what the Mariners have done this

[00:32:14] offseason they have added around the margins.

[00:32:18] Mitch Garver a little bit farther into the margin,

[00:32:20] but still counts $12 million around the margins.

[00:32:25] We still hold out hope that one of these off seasons

[00:32:28] and for the first time since they signed Robbie Ray,

[00:32:31] they go right to the middle of the margin and add.

[00:32:35] Otherwise I just feel like feel like there's a lot

[00:32:38] of our expectations just continue to get let down

[00:32:41] which shouldn't be shock at all.

[00:32:44] I think the two trades they made today are good

[00:32:46] trades.

[00:32:47] I think they make the team better.

[00:32:48] We just highlighted with both Mitch and Rayleigh why

[00:32:50] they can make the team better, but it does get tiresome

[00:32:54] man like it just wears people out when you say like

[00:32:58] when is this team going to commit to being great?

[00:33:00] They are committing to competing.

[00:33:01] They're committing to being in the wild card race.

[00:33:04] They're currently not committing to truly being

[00:33:07] great and again we've talked about it all offseason.

[00:33:09] This isn't on Jerry Jerry's doing.

[00:33:11] I mean look he if he makes a bad trade that's on Jerry,

[00:33:14] but Jerry is doing what he can with a hand tied behind

[00:33:17] his back with payroll restriction.

[00:33:20] So to your point the Mariners have so far we said

[00:33:23] the Mariners needed four new bats this winter after

[00:33:25] everybody was traded away.

[00:33:26] Well now they have three.

[00:33:27] They have Mitch Garver for the DH spot and they have

[00:33:30] two new outfielders with Mitch Hannigar and Luke Rayleigh.

[00:33:34] But if this offseason wants to be a win, the best

[00:33:37] bat they acquire should not yet have been acquired.

[00:33:39] What do we say about Mitch Garver when he signed?

[00:33:41] Good signing should not be the best bat they acquire

[00:33:43] this winter.

[00:33:45] If the Mariners acquire a better bat than Mitch Garver

[00:33:47] and a true difference maker this offseason as a win

[00:33:50] because if they go get a difference maker to go play

[00:33:52] third base or wherever this team can go from 87 ish wins

[00:33:56] to into the 90 win total in terms of a projection.

[00:33:59] If not, they're going to be in the mid to high 80s competing

[00:34:02] for a wild card spot and people will be sitting around

[00:34:05] saying okay they had a decent winner but it wasn't good

[00:34:07] enough.

[00:34:08] I think that's where they stand right now.

[00:34:10] You know people are going to say and you know as tired

[00:34:13] as some people are of hearing it, it's true.

[00:34:16] 54% that's the that's the kind of baseball team they have

[00:34:19] on the field right now.

[00:34:21] They have a 54% roster.

[00:34:24] Do they do they want to get over that when Jerry after

[00:34:28] the season made those comments went on apologized and he

[00:34:30] said 54% is the floor.

[00:34:33] Well, they should never be content with sitting at

[00:34:35] the floor because that's a terrible way to think.

[00:34:39] I agree.

[00:34:40] And again 54% it's it's such a meme now and it's infamous

[00:34:46] but at its core that is a decent season because that's

[00:34:50] about an 87 to 88 win team every year right.

[00:34:53] It is but like you just said that should not be what

[00:34:56] you're settling forever.

[00:34:57] You heard the Dodgers tell Shohei we've made the

[00:35:00] playoffs 10 straight years won a world series in our last

[00:35:03] 10 seasons.

[00:35:04] That's a failure.

[00:35:05] That's that's the motto you have to have that one

[00:35:08] right there.

[00:35:09] Not not 54% and again I know Jerry made the comments

[00:35:13] but I'm just going to harp on it again.

[00:35:15] Not all of this is tied back to him.

[00:35:17] He's only doing what he can do within his restraints.

[00:35:20] So I hope they have the resources to go acquire

[00:35:24] one more true impact that if they do I'm going to

[00:35:27] sit here and say this was a good winner.

[00:35:28] It really was they would have improved the offense

[00:35:31] and cut down on some strikeouts even with

[00:35:33] acquiring Rayleigh but they still have to do it.

[00:35:36] Mm-hmm.

[00:35:37] I cannot say this offseason at its current state.

[00:35:42] I can't say the soft seasons goal was to win a world

[00:35:44] series.

[00:35:46] I can't say that.

[00:35:47] No it's it's to stay competitive and to try to get

[00:35:49] into the wild card and then hopefully get lucky again.

[00:35:52] This motto and this philosophy they have it can work.

[00:35:56] We've seen it with the Braves in 21 a little bit.

[00:35:58] We've seen it with the Diamondbacks.

[00:36:00] I mean honestly maybe the Braves isn't a good

[00:36:02] example because their payroll was higher.

[00:36:04] They had very very very good players on that team.

[00:36:07] But a team like the Diamondbacks who made a run the

[00:36:09] Phillies in 22 when they made a run even though

[00:36:11] their payroll was higher and so maybe the Diamondbacks

[00:36:14] is the best example to use here in the sense of

[00:36:18] you can get into the playoffs and then get hot

[00:36:20] and make a run and that's what the Mariners

[00:36:23] are banking on and that can work.

[00:36:25] The problem is you shouldn't be banking on that

[00:36:27] you should just acquire the players necessary to

[00:36:30] feel the roster that's a World Series contender

[00:36:32] on opening day and is expected to be one.

[00:36:35] That's where people's frustrations lie.

[00:36:38] The most annoying thing for people is the if the

[00:36:42] aim is on the outer skirts of the playoff field like

[00:36:45] then you have a definitely you have decent odds

[00:36:47] of being left out.

[00:36:49] Everyone just wants you to be solidly in the aiming

[00:36:52] for a solid chunk of the playoff field every

[00:36:54] single season so you're almost certainly make it

[00:36:56] that's what people want.

[00:36:57] It's not that much to ask for for someone to try

[00:37:01] and be competitive however it seems a lot more

[00:37:03] difficult than it is.

[00:37:06] So I want to touch on maybe a couple of these Jerry

[00:37:09] quotes and he did say they were they were still

[00:37:13] looking and they still be open to addition.

[00:37:16] I wasn't totally a fan of him saying hey if we

[00:37:19] take the field now I'd be happy.

[00:37:23] I would be was that's not finding way to get

[00:37:25] better fun addition to now it's finding a way

[00:37:28] to get better is it a fun addition to the bullpen

[00:37:31] is in an upgrade somewhere on the field that we

[00:37:33] don't really have sometimes things just appear

[00:37:36] and you don't anticipate that it was possible

[00:37:39] till it shows up and we're opening to that happening

[00:37:41] but I don't feel like we have to do anything.

[00:37:45] I don't like that sentence right there.

[00:37:48] I don't feel like we have to do because they

[00:37:51] do have to do something.

[00:37:55] Okay but you know how this works.

[00:37:57] Do you think Jerry's going to sit there and say

[00:37:59] we're not good enough right now because then all

[00:38:01] the sudden teams are going to go to them like

[00:38:02] they're desperate make them overpay.

[00:38:04] So look I don't know what Jerry truly thinks about

[00:38:08] what they should do the rest of this winter

[00:38:09] and what their plans are but I'm guessing he's

[00:38:12] not going to tell the public here's exactly

[00:38:14] what we're going to do if he really has the

[00:38:16] means to go out and acquire another bat.

[00:38:18] He's not going to say oh we've got more we've

[00:38:20] got more cooking just wait because you know

[00:38:22] how that goes if he says that and then doesn't

[00:38:23] happen terribly.

[00:38:25] So that's that's why he's saying it again.

[00:38:28] They may not do much else but he's not going to

[00:38:30] tell people that oh we're not happy right now.

[00:38:33] That's fair that's fair okay good.

[00:38:35] Thank you for talking me off the ledge.

[00:38:36] I feel I feel considerably better but the

[00:38:38] expectation remains the same but before we wrap

[00:38:41] up actually wanted to play another fun exercise

[00:38:44] our lineup projection did so well a couple weeks

[00:38:47] ago so I want to do it again.

[00:38:50] Yeah we have we have more to mock now.

[00:38:52] So here's what I got you want to hear what I got.

[00:38:56] Yeah I was going to say we did one on the last show

[00:38:58] too it's becoming a regular occurrence now.

[00:39:00] I like this okay I've JP leading off Julio Cal

[00:39:04] Mitch Garver those four stay the same and then

[00:39:07] Luke Rayley if he's in the lineup hits fifth

[00:39:12] then I had Ty France after that Mitch

[00:39:14] Hannigar slash Dom Kanzon Louis Surius and

[00:39:18] then Josh Rojas.

[00:39:20] I basically had the same thing I just had Ty

[00:39:24] and Ray Lee flipped around I tie at five Ray Lee

[00:39:26] at six Ray Lee probably should hit ahead of Ty.

[00:39:29] They may just opt to keep Ty there although to be fair

[00:39:32] you also split up righties and lefties if you put

[00:39:34] Ray Lee at five and sandwiched between Garver

[00:39:37] and Ty so maybe that makes more sense that Ray Lee

[00:39:39] in the five spot so yeah that feels about what

[00:39:41] it's going to be is your guy going to be

[00:39:44] platooning with Ray Lee are we getting a demo

[00:39:48] Ray Lee platoon we might we might have to get

[00:39:51] a platoon another platoon.

[00:39:55] It's three and that's if they don't if they don't

[00:39:57] get a platoon at third base.

[00:40:00] Man they love platoons the only thing about demo

[00:40:04] is is he going to play right he's not hitting fifth

[00:40:08] no he's not hitting fifth but he also he can play

[00:40:11] good defense out there he just doesn't have

[00:40:12] the greatest arm his arm really only plays in left

[00:40:15] field and even there it's it's it's up and down

[00:40:19] you move you move Mitch to right you put demo and left

[00:40:24] yeah that would make more sense.

[00:40:25] Okay so so that then you can roll with that yes

[00:40:28] there but there is a chance they're going to platoon

[00:40:29] because Villanmore does hit lefties so if they're

[00:40:32] going to get in playing time regularly you'll

[00:40:34] probably see it there like that's a good lineup

[00:40:38] good that might be the

[00:40:40] 10th 12th best lineup on the optimistic side in baseball.

[00:40:47] Yeah probably sure yeah like around that 12 range

[00:40:52] feels about right now the pitching staff still

[00:40:54] arguably the best in the game but they want to be

[00:40:57] a World Series contender that offense just has

[00:40:59] to get better and that line the lineup in that

[00:41:03] state maybe only it's only slightly better at

[00:41:06] reducing strikeouts only slightly which is fine

[00:41:10] because strikeouts I mean if you hit it really

[00:41:12] doesn't matter how much you strike out strikeouts

[00:41:14] have zero correlation with offensive success but

[00:41:19] just the philosophy preach this off season and

[00:41:25] then the acquisitions today make it a little

[00:41:27] strange when actually looking at it on the lineup

[00:41:29] because you have your top four Cal's the only

[00:41:32] real strikeout problem there Luke Rayleigh

[00:41:35] and Demo both have strikeout issues tie doesn't

[00:41:39] Mitch does and then Urias and Rojas don't but

[00:41:44] there's still in those crucial spots significant

[00:41:47] strikeouts so I just think that's kind of

[00:41:49] interesting but sometimes that's what's available.

[00:41:52] I would still factor in the Gino, Teo, Kalmick

[00:41:55] and Fort all punched out over 30% of the time

[00:41:58] last year Garver strikes out in the mid 20s range

[00:42:01] yeah Rayleigh strikes out a little more Mitch

[00:42:04] is in the high 20s right so yeah Mitch is 28%

[00:42:07] last season and then Rayleigh's over 30 yeah

[00:42:10] no really yeah Rayleigh's like you said and then

[00:42:12] Demos at like 28 to so now it's not drastically

[00:42:18] less but it is still less not all technically yes

[00:42:21] so not all four of those guys are punching out

[00:42:23] 30% of the time and also Mitch has had plenty

[00:42:26] of years where his strikeout rate is in the

[00:42:28] mid 20s and he didn't have a huge sample

[00:42:29] size last year. It was a while ago though.

[00:42:31] It was like before 30. What was the strikeout rate

[00:42:36] in 22? I thought it was about 26%.

[00:42:39] 26% okay that's a little higher but even

[00:42:43] okay so drastically less no but it is a

[00:42:46] little bit less so they did cut down on

[00:42:49] strikeouts if you want to look at it that

[00:42:50] way. I'll just remind you because I have

[00:42:53] to constantly remind myself League average is

[00:42:55] 22 so we think the 26 is kind of low but

[00:43:00] 22 is League average. Okay well fair enough

[00:43:04] like you said they had what was

[00:43:08] available to them and they did still

[00:43:09] technically cut down maybe it wasn't

[00:43:11] cutting down drastically maybe it wasn't

[00:43:13] getting guys that never punch out but

[00:43:15] they still did cut down somewhat and let's

[00:43:18] hope this time it translates with more

[00:43:20] offensive production. Man I think we went

[00:43:24] a little longer than we thought we were

[00:43:26] going to on this episode which is okay

[00:43:27] there's a lot to digest here is there

[00:43:29] anything else you want to wrap up with?

[00:43:30] No I just think that if they are going

[00:43:33] to acquire someone it's going to be an

[00:43:35] infielder it's not going to be an

[00:43:36] outfielder I think the outfields pretty

[00:43:38] set control wise and just

[00:43:40] philosophical wise mean you have

[00:43:42] Future Guys and Julio, Dom and Rayleigh

[00:43:44] and then you have Mitch and you have

[00:43:46] Dimo as well out there as well so like

[00:43:48] you have the set you need.

[00:43:51] The only way I'd see him acquiring

[00:43:53] an outfielder is if Ty gets traded for

[00:43:56] a third baseman and then you ask Rayleigh

[00:43:58] to play First Base more then maybe you

[00:44:00] go sign Adam Duvall or somebody that's

[00:44:02] that's the only way I'd see it. Sign me up?

[00:44:05] Yeah which I don't know if they're

[00:44:09] really going to do or not but I think

[00:44:11] that's the only way it would even

[00:44:12] happen I oh I should probably even throw

[00:44:13] this in I don't know if he's ever

[00:44:15] going to really get time there but

[00:44:17] Dom Kanzon did take some reps three

[00:44:19] game at First Base a decent amount

[00:44:20] last year he never got in the game

[00:44:21] at First Base but he had a First Base

[00:44:23] Club out there during in field out

[00:44:25] field a decent amount of the time

[00:44:26] toward the end of the year and he

[00:44:27] was taking reps over there so is

[00:44:28] that something they look at long

[00:44:29] term if they need an extra First

[00:44:31] Base then maybe I don't know could

[00:44:33] just be trying to get him to be a

[00:44:35] little bit more versatile but I just

[00:44:37] thought it was noteworthy if we're

[00:44:38] talking about the First Base

[00:44:39] position. I guess we'll see we

[00:44:42] will see alright I think that wraps

[00:44:45] up for this emergency episode of the

[00:44:47] Marine Lair podcast you guys know

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