Episode 109: Infield Preview

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 109 of the Marine Layer podcast.

[00:00:03] We have our infield preview for the 2024 season and we'll close out the show with speak your

[00:00:09] mind.

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[00:00:34] Let's get it rolling. the the the

[00:00:46] the

[00:00:48] the

[00:00:50] the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the plenty 10 enough for at least I'll be 10. I don't know about Lyle, maybe he'll just be sunburned, but I guess we'll have to find out

[00:01:05] we'll be right in the heart of our Arizona trip.

[00:01:08] And as our infield preview rolls along today,

[00:01:11] we'll start behind the plate with Cal Raleigh.

[00:01:14] But let's see, on this Mariners infield,

[00:01:17] we're gonna make it our goal to talk

[00:01:18] to every single one of these players while we're down there,

[00:01:21] if we can, and then resuke around with our preview

[00:01:24] once we get back. What do you mean by re-circle? Like? players while we're down there if we can and then resuker around with our preview once

[00:01:25] we get back.

[00:01:26] What do you mean by recircle like?

[00:01:29] Well, what they're like, hey, teach.

[00:01:32] I'm hitting 40 bombs this year.

[00:01:33] I was like, Oh, OK, we'll we'll reevaluate.

[00:01:38] Now I got you.

[00:01:39] Who's going to be the one that said it hit 40 bombs?

[00:01:41] Honestly, if it was Thai, I might perk my ears up.

[00:01:45] What a jump that would be. I mean, yeah, I probably we probably have to just say, all

[00:01:48] right, we got to do version two of this because if time for instance, hitting 40 bombs this

[00:01:52] year, this roster is going to look a lot different. A lot different. I'd be, you know

[00:01:59] what, I'd be plenty happy if he hits 20 to 25 and just gets his WRC plus backup to like 125 130.

[00:02:06] But you know what, we can, we can dive into all that.

[00:02:09] That'll be great.

[00:02:10] Let's start behind the plate with Cal Raleigh.

[00:02:13] The Mariners projected starting catcher here in 2024 coming off a 2023 season.

[00:02:19] We hit 232 with a 306 on base percentage and a 456 slugging percentage good for a 111 WRC plus

[00:02:27] 4.7 fan graphs wins above replacement. He walked nine and a half percent of the time

[00:02:33] and struck out 27.8 percent of the time. What is your outlook on Cal Raleigh's 2024 season?

[00:02:42] I don't see why he shouldn't continue to repeat and replicate what he's been

[00:02:46] doing the last couple seasons. There's areas he can still get better. He could still hit better

[00:02:51] from the right side of the plate. Like his WRC plus from that side 79. It's obviously much

[00:02:56] better from the left side where all his power comes from. He can block the ball a little bit better.

[00:03:01] His blocks above average were down below average. And And there's areas he can still clean it up.

[00:03:08] Cal Riley may always be a strikeout guy

[00:03:09] if you want to look at his strikeout rate

[00:03:11] and say maybe he can bring it down a little bit.

[00:03:13] That's another area.

[00:03:14] But for the most part,

[00:03:15] you're talking about a catcher who by F4

[00:03:17] was one of the three best catchers in baseball.

[00:03:19] He let all the catchers in home runs last year.

[00:03:21] You know he's got pop.

[00:03:22] You know he calls a good game.

[00:03:24] You know he's got a good arm. And you know he's probably gonna put out a similar season last year. You know, he's got pop. You know, he's got, you know, he calls a good game. You know, he's got a good arm. And you know, he's probably going to put out

[00:03:28] a similar season next year. And I think that's what people should expect. Average isn't

[00:03:32] going to be crazy. Home runs will be high. OPS should jump up like and be carried by

[00:03:38] the home runs and ultimately serve as one of the better catchers in the league. I think

[00:03:43] that's who Cal Rally is at this point. I think he's proven that

[00:03:46] How many catchers in baseball can do what Cal rally does like switch it

[00:03:50] I mean like switch it plus power plus framing plus arm like

[00:03:55] Adley

[00:03:57] Get that money. It's just it might just be Adley

[00:04:01] The switch it is kind of unfair because there aren't very many switch hitting catchers. But even if you just frame it as plus power, plus framing,

[00:04:09] plus arm, great team leader, like you still might just circle around to Adley. And that's

[00:04:15] it.

[00:04:16] Yeah, the team leader thing certainly makes it interesting. I mean, maybe you throw Sean

[00:04:20] Murphy into there too.

[00:04:21] Potentially. But it's the point is the list is short.

[00:04:26] And I honestly think people low ball Cal rally

[00:04:29] when they try to rank them in these preseason rankings.

[00:04:31] Like we've seen on some of these catcher lists,

[00:04:33] he'll get put it seven, sometimes six, sometimes eight.

[00:04:38] I think he should be higher than that.

[00:04:40] I like if it were up to me, like again,

[00:04:42] especially when you finish top three among catchers in F war, he's in the top five for sure for me.

[00:04:50] I'm wondering if there is, is there any more there for Cal to unlock in his bat? I feel

[00:04:56] like a 230 average, the on base percentage could probably be a little higher. But if he's

[00:05:01] not going to hit for a high average, it's really difficult to get your on base percentage higher than say, 330, if you're going to hit 230.

[00:05:10] So maybe not there.

[00:05:12] His slugging percentage could go up a little, but he just finished the season with 30 bombs.

[00:05:16] So like if you're like, we're sitting here nitpicking, is there really another level for

[00:05:21] Cal rally to unlock in 2024 at the plate. He would, like you said,

[00:05:26] probably have to take a huge step from the right side facing lefties that like that would need to

[00:05:32] go up significantly for him to have a chance at it. Otherwise, you know, even if it's only a

[00:05:37] 111, let's say let's go right in the middle between his 2022 and 2023 campaigns, which was 120 and 111 WRC plus. And you put Cal

[00:05:46] at like a 116. I mean, that's for a catcher. That is all you can ask for at the plate.

[00:05:52] You can't ask for anything more for Cal Raleigh. And it's all you need really, to be honest,

[00:06:01] you don't need Cal Raleigh to be the best hitter on your team because you've

[00:06:05] supplemented the lineup around him for that to be the case where if you just take a mix

[00:06:11] of his 22 and 23 seasons, that's fine.

[00:06:14] You don't need anything else from Cal Raleigh.

[00:06:17] What you need from Cal Raleigh is what Scott's service needed from Cal Raleigh this offseason

[00:06:21] where he's making his list of six guys he's going to go talk to this offseason and like, hey, I need you guys to help lead this clubhouse

[00:06:29] this season in the wake of on financial uncertainty. And who's his first call? Who'd he call first

[00:06:36] Lyle?

[00:06:37] To in terms of what? Cal Raleigh and the off season who Scott was going to talk to was

[00:06:44] Cal. He called first. Oh,

[00:06:45] let's first on the docket. Well, in terms of who Scott talked, yeah, like it's funny

[00:06:49] Cal Raleigh when he came up was pretty reserved, wasn't loudly spoken. Now he's one of the

[00:06:56] team leaders. He's definitively one of the team leaders and a lot of catchers are, but

[00:07:01] some aren't and Cal has very, very evidently stepped into that role and done so very well, might I add.

[00:07:06] So yes, like, along with everything he brings to the table,

[00:07:09] at the plate and behind the plate, he also brings it in the clubhouse.

[00:07:14] And there could be, you know, as Cal goes another year into his big lead

[00:07:18] career, a little bit of, I don't even know if it's like an emotional maturity thing. I mean, you don't

[00:07:26] want like a public outbreak like there was last season. Cal Raleigh, I think had a valid

[00:07:30] reason for speaking the way he did last season. But knowing how Cal Raleigh sort of retracted

[00:07:38] his statement and how he's felt like he's sort of grown in this off season, I don't know

[00:07:43] if he would do that again, right?

[00:07:46] I don't think he would do what he did in Game 161 last year again.

[00:07:50] I would be curious to see what happens if the Mariners have a situation like they did last year

[00:07:54] where they start playing poorly, they're falling behind the Rangers in Astros,

[00:07:58] and things are sort of boiling up and getting frustrated for some of the core guys on this roster

[00:08:04] who might still feel, not feel like the roster is good enough.

[00:08:08] I don't know if anybody would speak out again. You'd probably see it happen internally.

[00:08:13] Maybe in house or sorry, you wouldn't see it. Maybe it will happen internally. But I think

[00:08:20] in that scenario, you'd see Cal either take matters into his own hands and either maybe

[00:08:26] there's some players only meetings or maybe he has discussions internally with management

[00:08:30] or front office people, whoever.

[00:08:33] But I think more than anything, if they get behind early, you're probably going to see,

[00:08:39] I mean, you probably, I mean, I don't really know to be honest.

[00:08:42] I'm trying to think of even like, just think out loud here about what might happen.

[00:08:45] I don't know what would happen if they fell behind again.

[00:08:47] I'm sure Cal would probably try to motivate the guys internally, but you're right in the

[00:08:50] sense of I don't think anything would happen publicly again.

[00:08:53] No.

[00:08:54] And you know, maybe there might be comments off the record, but that's it.

[00:08:57] Mm hmm.

[00:08:58] Like, I don't think you do that again.

[00:08:59] I think the point is a leader is you don't let that stuff get out.

[00:09:02] You don't give yourself the opportunity to feel vulnerable.

[00:09:05] I mean, the Mariners certainly when that came out and you saw the outcry from the fan base and everything else,

[00:09:11] you feel like the team is vulnerable at that point and not as jailed together.

[00:09:17] Because if you have someone willing to say that, whether it's intentional or not,

[00:09:21] you're demeaning other parts of your roster.

[00:09:22] And then, you know, that's all part of growing into the leadership role that Cal feels like

[00:09:26] he has to occupy this season.

[00:09:29] Like Scott service leans on his players a lot to lead this team.

[00:09:33] So when times are tough, instead of, you know, going and saying we're like, we need, we need

[00:09:40] more, it's instead going to be, how do I get the most out of this roster

[00:09:45] currently? We can all have our opinions on the Mariners spending habits. You and I have

[00:09:49] been very vocal about their spending habits on this podcast and Cal is welcome to have

[00:09:53] those as well. But for an organization that likes a good PR, you know, it's a it's part

[00:09:59] of Cal Raleigh's game and I'm curious to see how he handles it this year as we go on into

[00:10:04] 2024. So exciting season for Cal.

[00:10:06] We look for the best offensively, defensively as well and continuing to be the ultra reliable

[00:10:13] guy behind the plate.

[00:10:16] And they should extend him.

[00:10:18] That's what I'll end with.

[00:10:19] Will they know it was agent is?

[00:10:21] Yes.

[00:10:22] We know that it might be unlikely, but the Mariners should do whatever it takes

[00:10:24] to keep that guy around because clearly wants to win. Clearly likes the organization.

[00:10:28] Yeah.

[00:10:29] And it sounds like he wants to be here too. And last I checked, I think Scott's lacking

[00:10:33] a little cash. He turned down some huge paydays this offseason for his clients and instead

[00:10:39] is going to get left with like 30% of what he was asking for. I think you might need a

[00:10:43] long term extension to sort of refill the coffers a little bit.

[00:10:47] Oh, that sounds great. You got a catcher in Seattle that wants to be in his home in his

[00:10:52] organization that he came up with. So there's a match made in heaven. Speaking of a match

[00:10:58] made in heaven, the Mariners first baseman seems to have found a match made in heaven

[00:11:02] with his off season program over at Drive Line this winter. That's Ty France. He finished 2023 with a bit of a disappointing

[00:11:08] year. The numbers sat at 250 batting average 12 home runs 58 runs batted in 703 OPS 104

[00:11:15] WRC plus and just a half an F war 0.5. So, Ty took matters into his own hands. He followed

[00:11:23] his buddy JP Crawford to drive line this winter.

[00:11:25] The results seem to be very, very positive.

[00:11:27] Early on, he's shown some of it in string training.

[00:11:30] And what he can do in 2024 is kind of unknown.

[00:11:34] There's this balance of, okay, the last year and a half,

[00:11:37] Ty Francis had his major struggles.

[00:11:39] So the second half of 2022 after the injury

[00:11:41] and a lot of 2023.

[00:11:44] But there's also the side of what we saw

[00:11:46] at work for JP. Can this work for Ty France where he just pops off? And I certainly think

[00:11:52] there's a world where he can. In fact, if I had to pick one side or the other, I think

[00:11:55] he will bounce back. But we also know that simply going to drive line doesn't just magically

[00:12:00] work for every single player. It depends on the player and it depends on how they adjust everything they've learned to real games when the season starts. So there's

[00:12:10] a lot to unpack with Thai France, but I think the general consensus is obviously, the Mariners

[00:12:15] need him to be better than he was in 23.

[00:12:17] And there's a lot of spaces they need him to be better. I mean, you can say, yeah, he

[00:12:21] needs to be flat out better. But I mean, first of all, it's keeping his physique throughout the season. There's been some rave reports throughout camp of

[00:12:31] how in shape he is, how he feels a little bit faster, how he feels more athletic, and that he

[00:12:35] says he's open and playing both first and third base and that he physically feels like he can do

[00:12:40] it opposed to last season where he only played first base. So there's that. There's

[00:12:46] the staying healthy, not getting hit by a pitch, not having like a ball go off his wrist and

[00:12:51] have him affect an entire half season of his. There's that. And then there's just sort of

[00:12:57] the redefined offensive approach that he had at drive line. Is he going to hit the ball in

[00:13:01] the air a little bit more? Is it going to have a little bit more true power to it opposed to more of his softer

[00:13:07] hitting previous, I'll say almost like previous life in that aspect in previous seasons in

[00:13:14] 23 and 22 and 21 more of a light hitter singles doubles a few home runs mixed in there.

[00:13:21] But this season, could he have true first base power with more redefined swing,

[00:13:25] a calmer back path to the ball, a slimmer frame, more athletic, deeper in the box farther off the

[00:13:32] plate. Does he feel like he can do that? Like those are all the boxes I'm looking for tie France to

[00:13:37] check off. And we talked about the leadership with Cal Raleigh. Ty France was on that list too.

[00:13:43] Even though Ty France was worried if he was going to even get tender to contract this

[00:13:47] year.

[00:13:48] Scott's service made it feel like Ty France was one of the guys on this infield who is

[00:13:52] a leader this year again and on him to keep his mentality and the rest of the infields

[00:13:58] mentality good as the season goes along.

[00:14:03] What is a realistic expectation for Ty France here? I was going to say as you

[00:14:06] turn your light on, you're starting to get a little bit dark in there for those a little

[00:14:09] bit. Now you're right. Now you're being behind us, but that's fine. Well, we'll make it work.

[00:14:15] What do you think a realistic expectation is for Ty? I do think the power is going to

[00:14:18] go up and they're talking about he's pulling the ball more. But what do we think? Probably not 40 25. I'd like to see 25. Like just,

[00:14:27] let's, let's do a marginal jump. Let's not, let's not say Ty France is going to double

[00:14:32] his like double his home run total. Now if he does like a JP Crawford 30 points of WRC

[00:14:40] plus higher than his previous career high, then maybe we could talk about 40 because

[00:14:44] then we'd be in the 160 range. But I'm gonna say a marginal, a nice marginal improvement

[00:14:49] for tie France would be back to his previous career high of a 129 WRC plus and 25 bombs.

[00:14:57] Is it odd at all that? First off, I think that's about right. And now that he's pulling

[00:15:02] the ball more and seemingly hitting it with a little more authority,

[00:15:06] it does seem like a real possibility.

[00:15:08] Is it odd at all that when you look at ties peripherals from last year, when you pull

[00:15:12] up his baseball savant page, that his barrel rate and his hard hit rate were actually higher

[00:15:17] than they were in 21 and 22 when he was playing well.

[00:15:20] And he also with less.

[00:15:22] I don't know.

[00:15:23] That's interesting.

[00:15:24] I do think it's interesting. I do think the randomness of baseball probably plays a

[00:15:29] fact into that. And I think Ty could tell you that, you know, just because it's not always how

[00:15:38] hard you hit the ball. It's also where you hit it. And Ty admitted his swing last year felt kind

[00:15:44] of like just felt kind of off

[00:15:45] because he wasn't hitting the balls in the right spots. So even if he was technically

[00:15:49] hitting the ball harder, doesn't always mean it was better. So and then the results spoke

[00:15:55] for itself and just think of how many hits Ty France left on the table because he wasn't fast

[00:15:59] enough. Didn't feel athletic enough last year. There's certainly enough to make that

[00:16:05] the case. So definitely an interesting point. But I feel like it's very hard to use past

[00:16:11] years judgment to judge this year's tie France. I feel like tie France can be totally different.

[00:16:16] I just feel like this is his mentality has changed so much to how he approaches the game

[00:16:20] of baseball and how he approaches his hitting his fielding,

[00:16:25] et cetera, all this stuff.

[00:16:26] It's no longer Thai French training with Thai France in the off season.

[00:16:29] It's Thai France going and getting outside help to help him move along this off season,

[00:16:36] right?

[00:16:37] And become a better player and have a different swing path and have and being and being better

[00:16:42] shape and then in feeling like, you know, he improved his diet,

[00:16:46] which I'm jealous of. I need to I need to do that too, man. I've been so lazy this year,

[00:16:49] not not a good sign. But off the Thai, France tree of just doing that, like the little things of

[00:16:56] of improving yourself. I think have a chance to make a massive impact this year and which is why

[00:17:01] I think it's kind of hard to use past years to judge this year's version of Ty.

[00:17:06] And those third base rumors, man, those are interesting because I'll tell you what, not only if Ty's going to,

[00:17:13] if Ty's going to be more athletic this year and he's hitting and feels like he's comfortable to move over to third base,

[00:17:18] not only does it give him more options, but Tyler Locklear, that dude's coming.

[00:17:23] Like he's already mashing during spring training.

[00:17:25] He's hit at every level of the minor league.

[00:17:27] He is on a fast track on his way through the minors.

[00:17:30] And if the Mariners think that back can help mid season,

[00:17:33] maybe defensively it gets a little interesting.

[00:17:35] But if you have the potential to have Ty France at third,

[00:17:38] Locklear at first and Mitch Garver de-Hing.

[00:17:41] Woo!

[00:17:42] Yeah, that gets very interesting.

[00:17:44] Very good group. Yeah. Yeah, that gets very good.

[00:17:45] Yeah, that's a pretty good group.

[00:17:46] How much third base do we think Ty is playing this year?

[00:17:50] Think likely not much and maybe they just end up being rumors,

[00:17:56] but truthfully, a lot of it probably depends on Locklear

[00:17:59] because of Locklear's hitting so well that they say his bat has to be in the lineup.

[00:18:03] Well, you can't move Mitch Garver.

[00:18:04] He needs to be a DH. He catches, you can't move Mitch Garver.

[00:18:05] He needs to be a DH.

[00:18:06] He catches not only does that take time from Cal, but that is how Garver's gotten injured

[00:18:11] a lot of his careers catching.

[00:18:13] So I think it depends on what happens with Locklear.

[00:18:15] I don't think you'll see tie France play much third base early in the year.

[00:18:18] You can see it later.

[00:18:21] I'm just kind of, I would be kind of nervous with him over there.

[00:18:24] He is played in

[00:18:26] 2021 and 22. I've somehow forgotten the fact he played nearly

[00:18:29] 10 games worth of third base. He played 86 innings of third base in 2021 and 2022

[00:18:35] Managed out for defensive runs saved in those 86 innings. That's not very good

[00:18:40] Notice that a full season's worth of innings is what like 17 1800 innings. So multiply negative four by

[00:18:50] 18

[00:18:52] I mean, oh

[00:18:54] So it was negative for defensive run saved. I think at first you said for sorry negative for sorry

[00:18:59] That's what I meant negative for and is out above average at first base has never been above 35th percentile in a full season

[00:19:09] That does not lead me to believe right now that Ty France his offense could outdo his defense at third. To be honest, but what if what if Ty France

[00:19:17] is mashing and Tyler Locklear's mashing and Mitch Garber is mashing does for having like fifth percentile defense over

[00:19:27] there at third base and the effect it has on your picture does that outweigh it. I don't

[00:19:32] think it does. I mean seriously think of how the Mariners infield is right now. You have

[00:19:37] questional defenders at shortstop and second base. You have right now with Arias and Rojas

[00:19:44] a question market third when it

[00:19:46] comes to defense and you would downgrade that defense by putting Ty France at third base.

[00:19:51] So then you would have no matter how good your first base defense is, your pitching staff

[00:19:56] would have to deal with one of the worst defensive infields in baseball. Statistically, that's

[00:20:02] what it says. I would be a little nervous with that.

[00:20:06] I'll just say it again, though, if everybody's hitting Locklear included, there has to be

[00:20:12] some solution. And that seems like the most likely one.

[00:20:18] Mariners pitchers would not be happy. They'd love to see the runs. But when a ball gets

[00:20:23] put in play routinely on the infield,

[00:20:25] you expect it to be an out and I guarantee you it's not gene over there at third anymore.

[00:20:29] There's no it's it would be less likely to be routine. I'm just saying what the numbers

[00:20:34] say would not be pretty.

[00:20:37] Leslie blew me away and teach everything overnight.

[00:20:40] I was going to say if ties could a completely new player at the plate, maybe somehow he's

[00:20:45] cleaned up his defense to over a third base.

[00:20:47] They're not even cleaned up.

[00:20:48] Just gotten much better with it because he hasn't played over there that much and he

[00:20:51] doesn't have to be great.

[00:20:53] If he was even just league average, remember how bad Gino's defense was when he came over

[00:20:57] here and they said if he can just be league average, then that's a win.

[00:21:01] What if they would what if Perry Hill can help Tyby league average over there eventually?

[00:21:05] Would be a huge jump, a huge jump, but at least Gino was an infielder on the left side

[00:21:10] in the previous life. Ty Francis not.

[00:21:12] That's true. Well, he was a third baseman at one point. He played other positions, but

[00:21:18] well, there's a reason he didn't come over to the Mariners as a third baseman. No, he

[00:21:22] did come over as a third baseman. He was a he was a first he was a first slash second baseman. I think he was all three.

[00:21:30] But like he played everything in the minors with the Padres. I think I think primarily

[00:21:34] in the in the minors with the Padres type late third, but it would it would yes, it

[00:21:39] would be a jump for him to get back to that. That being said, Tyler Lockler's not making

[00:21:43] the team out of camp. It's going to be a bit till he get called up anyway.

[00:21:46] So for now, obviously, Ty France will be playing first base and more than anything, I

[00:21:50] think we're pretty excited to see what he can look like in 2024 at the plate.

[00:21:54] So I concur.

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[00:23:07] to get 50% off. Let's get to the next position on this Mariners infield. Let's go to second base

[00:23:15] Jorge Polanco acquired in a trade from the Minnesota Twins. In 2023, he played nearly exactly half of the season, a 255, 335, 454 slash line, 118 WRC plus

[00:23:29] in 80 games, one and a half fan graphs, wins above replacement, a walk rate of 10 and a

[00:23:34] half percent and a strikeout rate of 25.7%. Is this the best second baseman Lyle, the Mariners

[00:23:42] have had since Robinson can know it feels like an easy yes.

[00:23:46] I'd say it's definitively yes.

[00:23:49] Jorge Polanco in his last four full seasons has put up a WRC plus of one 18 or better.

[00:23:57] That's consistency.

[00:23:58] He didn't have a great year in 2020.

[00:23:59] But again, I kind of throw that year out the window for any good players who had down

[00:24:03] years because it was such a flooky year

[00:24:10] For hey Polanco is absolutely the best offensive second baseman this team has had since Robinson can out And there's some things he does very well

[00:24:12] Like you know we can hit for some power

[00:24:14] He hits fastballs and change-ups particularly well when you look at the breakdown pitch by pitch of what he matches versus what he doesn't

[00:24:22] But the guy has to stay on the field.

[00:24:26] That is the key.

[00:24:27] Played 80 games last year.

[00:24:28] We know this is a,

[00:24:29] we know this is a cloud hanging over the head

[00:24:32] of the Mariners this year is this seemed to be really good

[00:24:34] if guys stay healthy.

[00:24:36] Palanco is one of the main factors

[00:24:39] when you're talking about that topic.

[00:24:41] He has got to stay on the field.

[00:24:42] 80 games last year is not enough.

[00:24:44] The Mariners need him on the field. 80 games l enough. The Mariners need

[00:24:46] for 130 plus games to do

[00:24:50] do in 2024. So if Jorge

[00:24:53] healthy, this is going to

[00:24:56] very, very exciting secan

[00:24:58] offensively. On our Wednesday

[00:25:01] show, I chose Jorge Polanco as the Mariners most valuable hitter after Julio.

[00:25:08] Do you want to know why that is, Lyle? I played a fun exercise when I was prepping for this.

[00:25:13] I went back and I looked at the last five seasons of Mariners second base production.

[00:25:19] Cover your ears. If there are children around, I don't think they want to hear these numbers. OPS by year at second base. 2019 697 2020 604 2021 653 2022 607 2023 607 OPS. I mean, my God,

[00:25:42] Jorge Polanco could have one of the worst hitting seasons of his career

[00:25:45] say a 770 OPS and nuke the Mariners past production of second base out of the water.

[00:25:52] I mean, that is like, that's the level of upgrade we're talking about with Jorge Polanco,

[00:25:57] someone who has the potential to have plus power.

[00:25:59] He has a 30 Homer season in his career.

[00:26:01] He can walk over 10% of the time.

[00:26:03] And at his peak, he doesn't strike out that much.

[00:26:06] I have a feeling his strikeout rate last year was due to the fact he was never fully healthy

[00:26:11] when he was playing last year.

[00:26:12] He dealt with hamstring issues.

[00:26:14] He dealt with knee issues.

[00:26:16] And you know, when you're in and out of the lineup, that can mess with your timing and

[00:26:19] therefore lead you to strikeout more, which his 25% strikeout rate was the highest of

[00:26:23] his career last year.

[00:26:24] But at his peak, he's like an 18 to 19% strikeout more, which is 25% strikeout rate was the highest of his career last year.

[00:26:25] But at his peak, he's like an 18 to 19% strikeout rate guy. So if you can pair that

[00:26:31] with a 10% walk rate plus power, don't let's not talk about his defense at second base.

[00:26:39] I mean, we're talking about the Mariners middle of the order bat at second base,

[00:26:45] We're talking about the Mariners middle of the order bat at second pace right behind Julio or behind Garver or behind cow or wherever they decide to put Jorge Polanco.

[00:26:51] That's the kind of guy you're putting there.

[00:26:52] And that's the kind of guy I'm excited to watch this guy this year.

[00:26:56] I am through the moon to watch Jorge Polanco.

[00:26:58] This is a guy who hit 30 plus home runs just a couple seasons ago.

[00:27:03] This guy has real power and he hit in Minnesota.

[00:27:06] Minnesota is not a hitter's tark.

[00:27:08] So the guy can hit anywhere.

[00:27:10] And if he's just healthy, you're talking about such a boost at second base for the

[00:27:15] Mariners.

[00:27:16] Like the two former twins they acquired, Mitch Garver, who I guess was from the Rangers

[00:27:20] because he hit free agency after playing for the Rangers.

[00:27:23] But he was a twin.

[00:27:24] Mitch Garver Jorge Polanco. Those guys hit. Oh, this team looks way different than it did a season ago

[00:27:30] and Polanco specifically, if he can stay healthy, he cuts the strikeouts back down. If he shows

[00:27:36] some of the power that he very clearly has and can hit gap to gap two, which we know he can. Oh,

[00:27:41] like look out like this offense gets that much more deadly. Like there's so many

[00:27:46] factors with this too. Everybody talks about the health thing with the negatives. What

[00:27:49] if everything goes right? What if Polanco's on the field all year? What if tie France

[00:27:52] really makes all those drive line improvements and looks similar to how JP did last year?

[00:27:56] All those things like there's a world this team can be really scary offensively.

[00:28:02] I will note defensively. He is a sub 20th percentile OA guy in his prime.

[00:28:08] And that is not projected to get any better as he ages in his career. He's going to play

[00:28:13] some second base. I'm going to guess at some point he'll play some third base this year

[00:28:17] for the Mariners. I hope it's going to his offense is going to be enough to outweigh

[00:28:21] his defense. I know JP Crawford said that he was very excited to turn double plays with Jorge Blanco, and he's excited for Jorge

[00:28:29] on defense this season. I would like to see it with my eyes that the numbers aren't as

[00:28:35] bad as they seem. I hope because again, as we highlighted in ties preview. Getting a little nervous about this infield defense.

[00:28:49] Look, there's trade offs.

[00:28:50] When you when you need bats as badly as the Mariners do,

[00:28:54] it's hard to find guys that are that good on both sides of the ball.

[00:28:58] So Polanco's a great hitter, but his defense is a little lackluster.

[00:29:03] Like he does not great out well at second base.

[00:29:06] You just outlined it.

[00:29:07] Now maybe Perry Hill can help him out.

[00:29:08] Maybe they can shore some things up

[00:29:10] and he's at least a step better than he was last year.

[00:29:13] But on the flip side of that,

[00:29:16] he was much better, at least arm wise,

[00:29:20] than Colton Wong was.

[00:29:21] Like Colton Wong didn't have much of an arm over

[00:29:23] at second base, which I didn't think would really matter

[00:29:24] for playing the position

[00:29:25] But then seeing when you really great out that poorly with your arm strength

[00:29:29] They can play a factor Polanco's not that now

[00:29:31] He may not have great range, but he can turn double plays that need to be turned so that is a plus

[00:29:37] So start it is a start I polo's gonna be he's gonna be fun. He's gonna be a blast to watch

[00:29:44] Okay, I cannot wait. Before we get to our next position, let's take a quick pause and talk

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[00:30:33] Getting a shortstop.

[00:30:35] The longest 10 year guy on the Mariners infield.

[00:30:38] J.P.

[00:30:38] Crawford comes off a season.

[00:30:40] Yeah, he's been here since 2019.

[00:30:42] So that is.

[00:30:44] Oh, wow. Well, you know what? He's been here a long time now.

[00:30:49] Like he has 1920, 21, 22. It's five years. He's entering his sixth

[00:30:54] season in Seattle. Like we've gotten pretty used to seeing JP

[00:30:56] Crawford play. And last year, man, did he put it all together

[00:31:00] offensively. It was his best season by far.ari hit 266. 19 home runs, he had

[00:31:05] an 818 OPS. That was a career high, a 134 WRC plus that was certainly a career high,

[00:31:12] and just a hair shy of five wins above replacement. What a revelation JP Crawford was last year,

[00:31:19] not only does he still walk a lot, he doesn't strike out. He is everything you could ask

[00:31:23] for in a lead off hitter

[00:31:25] for a competitive ball club.

[00:31:27] Does he have any more in the tank offensively?

[00:31:30] Can he, is there another level for JP Crawford to unlock?

[00:31:34] Like, I'm trying to think,

[00:31:35] because his home run to fly ball rate

[00:31:37] was about 12 and a half percent last year.

[00:31:39] That's not terribly above league average,

[00:31:41] which is about 10%.

[00:31:43] Is there a way he can get some more,

[00:31:45] like is there more home run power in that bat?

[00:31:48] Is he gonna hit for a higher average?

[00:31:49] He's probably not gonna walk more than 14% of the time again.

[00:31:54] It's like, that's a really high number,

[00:31:56] a really high number for him.

[00:31:58] But are there other areas that JP Crawford

[00:32:00] can unlock offensively?

[00:32:01] Because this dude turned from a guy

[00:32:04] who the Mariners would

[00:32:05] tuck away at the end of their lineup to give a good at bat in the end of the game to he's

[00:32:09] your second best hitter behind Julio. And you know, I think it's a little unfair to

[00:32:14] expect JP to repeat his which I would guess is about a 95th at least percentile offensive

[00:32:20] season for him in 2023. But can he get back to about 90th?

[00:32:27] Can he do that again?

[00:32:28] Can he repeat his success and stay at the top of that lineup and be the catalyst?

[00:32:35] Like can we get the outlier season from JP Crawford again with the MVP season

[00:32:40] from Julio with a healthy Mitch Garver season with a healthy Jorge

[00:32:44] Polanco season with a full Calrver season with a healthy Jorge Polanco

[00:32:45] season with a full Cal Raleigh season with a turned around Thai Francies and we can we

[00:32:49] please get that.

[00:32:51] Can we please as a mariner fan I'm asking can we please get that with a Dom Canzone breakout

[00:32:58] with Luke Rayleigh continuing his success from last year like all of it like if everybody

[00:33:02] clicks there's no weak spots in the lineup. There is a real world. There are no weak spots in this lineup this year. And if you want to talk

[00:33:08] about JP, look, even if he doesn't WRC plus 134 again, there's no reason he can't be in the 120s.

[00:33:15] If he's got a 120 WRC plus has a 10 or 11% walk rate, OPS is still above 800. That's your leadoff

[00:33:22] hitter. And if he hits 15 home runs instead

[00:33:25] of closer to 20, that's still absolutely your lead-off hitter and a really good one

[00:33:29] at that. So I think this is real what JP Crawford did last year, even if he doesn't take a step

[00:33:34] above the 134 mark WRC plus wise that he had last year. This is real. I fully believe

[00:33:41] that what JP Crawford did last year is in some form or another here to stay at the plate. And that is such a difference for the Mariners.

[00:33:48] If JP had not done what he had done last year, not only would the Mariners have

[00:33:53] a lot more questions going into this season, they wouldn't have even been in

[00:33:55] the race to make the playoffs last season because they really at points

[00:33:59] the last year did not have much consistent offensive production of anybody.

[00:34:03] Besides JP Crawford, he was the anybody besides JP Crawford. He was the

[00:34:06] constant in that lineup. He was the consistent bat. And I think he's going to do it again

[00:34:10] this year.

[00:34:11] Not only that, and we know Julio finished fourth and MVP last year. JP was the most valuable

[00:34:16] hitter on the team last year.

[00:34:17] Period. So, and there are some numbers that Luke Arkansas is a great follow on Mariners Twitter laid out why he thinks JP can continue his success in 2024. Luke pointed out like his barrel

[00:34:30] rate and hard hit rate were way up. I mean, those are numbers that are consistent with

[00:34:35] success and barrels means you're putting the ball in the air and that that's that's a good

[00:34:39] point. JP nearly doubled his average, his average launch angle last year and hitting the ball

[00:34:45] in the air more leads to more success.

[00:34:47] JP Crawford had a problem with putting too many balls on the ground and too much weak

[00:34:51] contact.

[00:34:52] He started hitting the ball harder and he started hitting it in the air more while especially

[00:34:56] utilizing his pole power.

[00:34:58] If those are all traits that trickle over to 2024, I mean, we can expect a better season,

[00:35:02] not a better season, a good season, another

[00:35:05] season like the one he just had, and not one that is representative of the past seasons

[00:35:10] of JP Crawford. The question is, is there anything left in the tank defensively? Can

[00:35:16] he find a way to get place in better defense than he did last season, which he ranked in

[00:35:22] the fifth, yeah, fifth percentile outs above average.

[00:35:26] He had a lot of trouble going to his right in the hole at short. Is there a way JP can

[00:35:34] can can get like get back up to the average?

[00:35:37] If he does, we're talking about a guy who could legitimately be an MVP candidate. If he

[00:35:43] repeats what he did last year at the plate, If JP Crawford had done what he did last year at the plate and he'd even played

[00:35:49] league average defense, you're talking about him going from a five war season to six plus.

[00:35:55] If he'd played the defense, he played a couple years ago. Now you're talking like seven plus.

[00:36:00] So I don't know if he's going to return to his Gold Glove form or what he was in 2021 also, but even just getting back to the league average range are slightly above it.

[00:36:11] It makes such a difference. I mean, you've talked about you're worried about this infield defense. If you're going to pocket one spot of this infield defense, it's the five six hole and we'll get to third base here in a bit. But at least in certain situations,

[00:36:25] it's the five six hole because when JP Crawford moved to his right last year, like he talked

[00:36:30] about his season total for out above average was negative five. There are some areas he

[00:36:35] still is better like he's good moving in on baseballs when he moves to his left on baseballs,

[00:36:40] he's better. It's that backhanded play going toward third base negative 11 out above average is where

[00:36:46] he ranked going laterally toward third base last year. So if you look at that five six spot and

[00:36:51] Luis Arias who will get to in a minute are sharing time over there like that could lead to some

[00:36:58] CNI hits and maybe balls that were stopped a year ago. I think JP Crawford finding a way

[00:37:03] to shore it up a little bit.

[00:37:05] Next this upcoming year, yeah, makes such a big difference.

[00:37:08] He does not have to win a gold glove, but just as a marginal improvement could do a lot.

[00:37:13] I just think of a guy like George Kirby who's like, at least as of right now, he

[00:37:18] could jump his strikeout rate up this year, but George pitches to contact for the most

[00:37:24] part. That's how he is so

[00:37:26] efficient on the mound. And efficient contact means a lot of balls on the ground. The more balls

[00:37:32] on the ground against this Mariners defense that can get turned into outs the better the picture

[00:37:37] looks. But if every marginally tough ball on the infield, especially to the pole side for a right

[00:37:42] hand hitter who are represent eight 70% of the hitters in Major League Baseball. If, you know, 5% of those start going for

[00:37:51] hits instead of our outs, like that's a problem. And especially for your shortstop who is on

[00:37:58] a contract extension, getting paid very handsomely to be not only a good hitter, but a good defender

[00:38:04] as well. And, And if he can't

[00:38:05] replicate that, there's certainly reason for concern at the hole at shortstop this year.

[00:38:10] But I mean, offensively, you still expect JP to, you know, he could be the third best

[00:38:15] hitter this year behind Julio and Mitch Garver or the fourth best behind Julio and Julio

[00:38:22] Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco. That would be great too.

[00:38:25] Some aspect of that would be great going into this 2024 season.

[00:38:30] Now, if we shift over to third base Lyle,

[00:38:33] this is where the concerns start.

[00:38:35] I want to start with Josh Rojas at third base,

[00:38:38] got traded to the Mariners at the trade deadline,

[00:38:40] coming off a season where he hit 245, 303 1.1 fan graphs, wins above replacement,

[00:38:48] striking out 23% of the time and walking seven and a half percent of the time. Can he get

[00:38:55] back to the nearly three win player he was in Arizona a season prior in 2022? That was

[00:39:03] I think he showed some flashes of it once he got to Seattle because

[00:39:07] his his numbers as a whole last year weren't great. His numbers when he got to Seattle

[00:39:10] were a lot better. He hit 272 with a 721 OPS. He also thrived in the month of August where

[00:39:16] he hit 288. He saw a little bit of it last year. The change of scenery seemed to do

[00:39:20] him some good and the fact that along with Rojas being the three win player that he wasn't 22, he's a good defender.

[00:39:27] Like, so the earliest part of it will get to in a minute, but the Josh Rojas part of

[00:39:32] this, like he put up six outs above average last year.

[00:39:35] And I know he played a lot of second base last year, but third base is more his natural

[00:39:38] spot where he spent a little bit more time.

[00:39:41] So if you have Rojas over at third base, I think you feel a little

[00:39:45] more secure about what you're getting defensively from the hot corner. And Josh Rojas is not

[00:39:49] going to hit 30 bombs. That's not what he's here to do, frankly. But if he can play some

[00:39:54] good defense, the on base is good. He's a real lineup flipper out of the nine spot where

[00:40:00] he proves to be a guy that can get on base a lot, drive in a few runs and play good defense.

[00:40:09] I think he can be a three-win player, even if it's not three exactly, he can be a two-win player, which is very valuable, especially in a platoon. So, yes, I think Josh Rojas has the chance to turn

[00:40:17] it around. I think you saw him start to turn it around last year. You just have to see it continue.

[00:40:22] I'm very curious how he's going to look in a platoon,

[00:40:25] because last year his platoon splits were dead even.

[00:40:28] Like down the middle, 83 WRC plus each side.

[00:40:32] He is slightly better against right hand throwers

[00:40:37] for his career, but it's not like Louis Sirius,

[00:40:40] who's actually a platoon bat

[00:40:42] who has done significantly better

[00:40:43] against lefties in his career than he has against righties.

[00:40:46] Rojas, there's not that much of an advantage.

[00:40:49] And I'm hoping that there's still enough there offensively for him to do well with even when

[00:40:56] he's not like a true platoon bat in that case.

[00:41:00] So that's I'm not expecting an all world offensive season from Josh Rojas

[00:41:06] I think you and I just talked about the biggest thing we want to see from Josh Rojas is to get on base at the bottom of the lineup

[00:41:12] He doesn't need to hit for a ton of power doesn't need to hit for a high average

[00:41:16] But can he walk get back to his career walk rate of like over 10%

[00:41:19] Can you do that because every season in his career prior to last he was over 10% and having that 10% walk rate

[00:41:26] out of the nine hole means you're going to have a 10% the nine hole and then you're going to have

[00:41:30] wake up. Let's say 10% for JP. We'll go nice middle ground 10% for JP. Then you got Julio,

[00:41:36] Polanco, Cal, Garver, those guys all right after them. And that gives a lot of RBI and run scoring

[00:41:44] opportunities. That's the most important part RBI and run scoring opportunities. That's

[00:41:45] the most important part here for Josh Rojas. He's got to score some runs for the guys

[00:41:50] hitting behind him.

[00:41:53] The walk rate is going to be huge. And that played a major factor into his difference

[00:41:57] in offensive production between 22 and 23. Again, I don't think people should just forget

[00:42:04] what he did here in Seattle last year once he got traded over.

[00:42:06] I think that makes a difference. He was a good player last year legitimately. He was a good player that hit out of the nine spot and did his job.

[00:42:13] So if he's dead even platoon splits wise, I don't really think it matters which side of the plate he hits against.

[00:42:19] You're just trying to help Arias out in that way. And again, if he plays good defense and he gets on base,

[00:42:25] that's the key. But again, that walk rate jumping up for Rojas will be what to watch

[00:42:30] in 2024. Because if he can get it back up, that's like, that's a big difference. Again,

[00:42:36] you talk about a lineup flipper. He was already kind of doing it last year once he got to

[00:42:39] Seattle out of the nine spot. But if he starts to walk a lot again, it makes him that much

[00:42:43] more impactful.

[00:42:51] And let's just remind people what the best version of Josh Rojas was like in 2022. He had a one 10 WRC plus of the plate, walked over 10% of the Trump the time, struck out under 20% of the time.

[00:42:58] He played about 80% of his time at third base. That is the player. The Mariners are looking for

[00:43:03] this year. Third baseman, not striking out a ton, walking a decent amount, 10% better than league average

[00:43:09] at the plate. His defense for his career third base is below average. It's negative five

[00:43:14] defensive runs saved, but league average is what the Mariners hope for because if he

[00:43:20] was a league average DRS guy at third base, he'd be the best defender on the sin field this year as of right now.

[00:43:26] It is funny how how different this defense looks all of a sudden because that was one

[00:43:32] of the mariner's strengths for a while.

[00:43:33] And now that is one of their question marks and it may ultimately get resolved and I hope

[00:43:39] it does, but it is something to watch.

[00:43:41] Now the other side of this platoon, you've got Louis Arias, who is in major need of a bounce back year, the guy hit 194 last year,

[00:43:50] three home runs, 636 OPS, 83 WRC plus negative 0.1 fan graphs war.

[00:43:58] I think I was a little higher on a Louis Arias bounce back than I was about

[00:44:02] two weeks ago than I am right now. But the fact

[00:44:06] he can't throw the ball and reportedly isn't in the greatest shape. It's a little worrisome.

[00:44:11] We talked about that. So as of this week, he was lightly throwing the ball across the

[00:44:19] infield, which is a start. It's still a question if he's going to be on the opening day roster, which again,

[00:44:25] if he can't even be on the opening day roster, then people are sitting like, is there a point

[00:44:29] of bringing him back at all? He is hit okay in spring training in a small sample size so far at DH.

[00:44:37] And he does have a tiny bit more upside in the bat than Josh Rojas does. He has more clear platoon split than Josh Rojas

[00:44:46] does. He's over 10% above league average against left handed pitchers, which is good. But the

[00:44:55] question is he's not a great defender. There have been now two teams that have let him go

[00:45:02] with options remaining as a former top prospect with the ability to keep him in their organization and

[00:45:08] They decided to get rid of him anyways

[00:45:10] How like what are the Mariners gonna find something this year?

[00:45:13] So you're gonna show prove to them he belongs in the big leagues and doesn't deserve to get cut is he going to

[00:45:20] Be able to not just have a disastrous season at the plate again. The Mariners can't have

[00:45:26] two third baseman slug under 400 this year because that's what both of these guys did last year.

[00:45:30] You can't have that again. Third baseman need to they need to pick up their weight

[00:45:34] when it comes to hitting. And if Luis Arias can't do that, he's you and I think probably the first

[00:45:41] guy off this roster, if that's the case this season,

[00:45:45] probably the most replaceable guy, especially when you have a couple infielders down there

[00:45:49] in our mailbag. We talked about Cole Young, Tyler Locklear could come up, Ryan Bliss could

[00:45:54] come up like all these guys have the opportunity to come up and get some time on the infield

[00:45:59] if Luis Arias can't do what he did in 21 and 22 at the plate.

[00:46:06] So there's a lot of question marks surrounding this guy.

[00:46:09] And we're going to have to see as he gets healthy and as he gets more playing time.

[00:46:14] So you sound kind of nervous about third base.

[00:46:16] And I heard a lot of defensive questions in there, but you were also nervous

[00:46:20] about Thai France playing third base defense.

[00:46:22] So it sounds like to me, if we get to this point,

[00:46:25] Lockler gets up, you take the bat.

[00:46:30] Well, you got a good, you got a solid point there.

[00:46:37] Well, I guess, I guess if we reach that point

[00:46:40] where it's just an ultimate cult long level performance

[00:46:42] at third base, then pretty much anything else at third base would suffice.

[00:46:47] So we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

[00:46:49] We'll see.

[00:46:50] We'll see how the season shakes up.

[00:46:51] Okay.

[00:46:52] And again, for the record, no matter what the role Josh Rojas plays, whether it is strictly

[00:46:57] a third baseman, whether he starts being an infield platoon guy, I think he's absolutely

[00:47:01] going to have a role on the team.

[00:47:02] I think he is going to be valuable.

[00:47:04] And I think he is going to stick around long term.

[00:47:07] It's just it's Arias who I think the question marks revolve around.

[00:47:10] So if it got to a scenario where Lockler got up, played first base, Ty France went to third,

[00:47:15] like Rojas would play some second base.

[00:47:17] He'd still play a couple of times a week.

[00:47:18] He'd fill in either defensively late in games or he'd get a start here and there.

[00:47:23] But yeah, I think Arias is the question mark. That's for sure.

[00:47:26] And Arias can save himself if he hits because the Mariners need to are going to need some

[00:47:30] offense at third base. If he hits, we probably won't be having these discussions because

[00:47:35] the worry will be out the door for the most part. But if he can't hit, then we're really

[00:47:40] going to start having an issue. There is a guy who could see some time at third base

[00:47:44] on the bench for the Mariners that could help supplement their production throughout

[00:47:49] the season. But before we get to Dylan more, let's hear a word from our friends at Simply

[00:47:53] Seattle. We love Simply Seattle because they're the best place to go for Pacific Northwest

[00:47:58] themed sports gear online. Go to Simply Seattle dotcom and you can use our code marine 15 for 15% off it check

[00:48:06] out they have all the best Huskies gear, Seahawks gear, Sonics, Kraken, Mariners, anything you

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[00:48:19] for 15% off your order. Well, Dylan Moore is going to get to occupy his true role this year. He's going to be off the bench. He's going to be a true utility guy on the infield

[00:48:29] and the outfield this season. He's coming off a bit of a down season in 2023 compared

[00:48:34] to his, his best season of his career in 2022. He at 207, 303, 428, a 105 WRC plus only had

[00:48:43] half a win above replacement by fan graphs.

[00:48:46] He struggled to stay on the field and he struck out a career high 34% of the time.

[00:48:52] What does your guy have to do this year, dog?

[00:48:55] Well, first off, he's healthy and in camp.

[00:48:58] That was such a problem last year.

[00:49:00] Again, like go look at the at bats still and more had when they sent him out on a rehab

[00:49:03] assignment.

[00:49:04] It was sped up like he went out got a few of bats. He had a setback. So he

[00:49:09] had to go through some more rehab process again. Then once he got close to playing games,

[00:49:14] they kind of sped up as a bats again. And he didn't have a full string. In fact, he had

[00:49:18] no string last year and he didn't have a whole lot of the bats to get acclimated. Now he's

[00:49:22] healthy. He's getting a bat. I think that's the biggest key point here. He's he is fully healthy and taking part in big league string training.

[00:49:30] That's number one. But yes, he cannot strike out that much. He's got to find his power

[00:49:35] stroke again. We know he can hit lefties when he's at his best. But I think the health

[00:49:40] factor is going to be such a key. Now if Dylan Moore comes out and has struggles again

[00:49:44] in 2024, despite being healthy, we might have some different things to look at. But

[00:49:48] I genuinely think missing all the spring last year made a big difference and in not

[00:49:53] a good way.

[00:49:54] I'm sure Denny probably was guessing more at the plate. I did have some concern though

[00:49:58] along those lines on as see if he corrects himself a little bit this year. He's chased

[00:50:02] 11% more pitchers outside the zone last year than he did the year before. And DMO's a guy who's supposed to have a pretty

[00:50:11] good idea of the strike zone. He's supposed to like walk at a decent clip and understand

[00:50:19] like his strike zone and his power profile. But if he's not doing that, again, for a second consecutive

[00:50:26] season, then we're going to have some trouble because he was chasing more. He was making

[00:50:29] less contact on those pitches. And he overall, because of that was a less productive offensive

[00:50:35] player. And the Mariners, like some of those signs, some of those chase signs and the,

[00:50:41] the down contact numbers, Sometimes that relates to aging.

[00:50:45] If Dylan Moore is aging poorly, him just into his 30s, like that's an issue.

[00:50:51] And the Mariners would then think about someone after coming off the season and they struck

[00:50:55] out too much, can't have a guy on their bench striking out 35% of the time without the really

[00:51:00] top of the line power.

[00:51:02] So it's interesting.

[00:51:04] This season is big for Dylan Moore and his future

[00:51:06] on the Mariners after this season, I think. For sure. If you're not performing in your roles,

[00:51:13] a utility player, there are other utility players that you can find. However, as the reason I am

[00:51:19] such a big Dylan Morgan, when he is at his best, He is a perfect utility player because he legitimately does everything. He draws walks, has power, steals, plays all these different positions.

[00:51:29] So let's see what the health does for him this year. I agree that he cannot chase that

[00:51:33] many pitches again. I agree that he's got a zone in his plate approach a little bit more

[00:51:38] like he was doing in seasons prior. But you know, he can play a real role on this team

[00:51:44] when he's at his best.

[00:51:45] Now, his role is going to look a little different this year because I think we're going to see him play a lot more infield than outfield.

[00:51:51] At least that's how it seems for now.

[00:51:54] Do we like that better?

[00:51:55] I'm going to be honest, I always liked him as an outfielder.

[00:51:57] Not that he can't play the infield, but I thought he's out there.

[00:52:00] He's better as an outfielder like numbers wise it backs it up.

[00:52:03] He is a better outfielder than he is an infielder. The problem is you now have like we mentioned in our

[00:52:10] mailbag that you know he's probably the backup center fielder to Julio Rodriguez but at this

[00:52:16] point in the corners they're pretty set on corner outfielders they don't like Demo's

[00:52:20] best spot is left field I'll say like in the outfield. That's his best defensive spot.

[00:52:25] But the Mariners have multiple guys who can occupy left field this season.

[00:52:29] So they don't need DMO out there unless it's an emergency.

[00:52:32] They need him more on the infield, which are his worst spots.

[00:52:35] He's a pretty bad defender at short for his career.

[00:52:38] It's not much better at second base and certainly not much better at third base either.

[00:52:42] So it might not be his best spot defensively,

[00:52:46] but where his bat fits in, that's probably what you're going to have to end up with.

[00:52:50] Yeah. So look, ultimately, I'm sure he'll still play some outfield, but you'll probably

[00:52:55] see him more on the infield this year. And hopefully he gets back to the Dylan, where

[00:52:59] he was in 2022 because in 2022, he was a 126 WRC plus guy does it what I mean when Dylan wars at his best

[00:53:06] He's very good to have that type of guys a bench that it's good stuff

[00:53:11] Last guy very quickly before we get to speak your mind. I figured we should at least throw in a

[00:53:17] Word or two about about 70s of alla. I know we got off from the catchers for a little bit

[00:53:21] But as we're looking at the bench players

[00:53:23] Obviously, he's he's probably to see playing time once a week, maybe twice a week as Cal Raleigh

[00:53:28] takes such a load of the catching. But because he's a good defender, at least in the past,

[00:53:32] he's put up some offensive production. If they can get him back to even an 85, 90 WRC plus guy,

[00:53:38] it might give Cal the ability to get some more days off this year and stay a little healthier

[00:53:42] and get less dinged up, especially because again, Zavala is a good defender. So if you need him late in games,

[00:53:47] he can do that. One of the things I really hated when over the last couple of years is when they

[00:53:53] would on a cows off day, they'd have to pull them off the bench to hit. I really hope that

[00:53:59] the lineup depth around Sebi Sival and just around this roster overall is enough that

[00:54:03] Calrali actually gets full days off. I'm like, I can't we can't keep pulling karlarly into the lineup on his

[00:54:11] off days to have him hit in a big spot because you know what the roster should be deep enough

[00:54:16] around karlarly where he does not have to do that. Let's get this man some days off.

[00:54:22] Sebi can play defense and the other eight guys in the lineup can match. Can we please just let that be a thing? Let that be a constant for this lineup

[00:54:29] this season because we're talking about like the health of Cal Raleigh's knees in the future,

[00:54:34] especially if you want to extend him. Let's try not to run him into the ground before he reaches

[00:54:39] his free agency. Please and thank you. And that was the problem last year. Tom Murphy was injured for a portion of the

[00:54:47] year. They had to bring up Luis Terens at one point to be the backup catcher.

[00:54:51] They didn't trust him behind the plate. So now you have a real backup

[00:54:54] catcher with Seviz Abala. So that is good news. And hopefully he continues to

[00:54:58] play good defense and even maybe hit a little bit too. Again, there have been

[00:55:01] years in the past where he's hit decently, just not last year.

[00:55:05] Maybe he'll bounce back.

[00:55:06] That'd be great if he does.

[00:55:08] Alright, let's get to speak your mind.

[00:55:11] Speak your mind, Spock.

[00:55:16] That would be unwise.

[00:55:18] What is necessary is never unwise.

[00:55:22] Well TJ, would you like to tell everybody what's on your mind this week?

[00:55:27] Well, as you might have noticed, I've been in two different locations for this, uh, for

[00:55:32] this episode.

[00:55:33] We've been having a lot of technical issues over the last couple months, a lot of it on

[00:55:38] my end.

[00:55:39] And I've officially made the decision that I need a new computer.

[00:55:43] Uh, sucks. I hate that's need a new computer. Sucks.

[00:55:45] I hate that's a lot of money to dish out, but I'm actually kind of excited to get

[00:55:50] a new laptop. Like I love my laptop. I've done a whole lot on this laptop.

[00:55:53] This was my graduation present from college.

[00:55:56] It has served me well, but the,

[00:56:00] the hardware limitations have finally caught up with us and has led to some very

[00:56:04] long, long episodes episodes not in length not in actual length recorded but length sat here and actually tried to get through the whole recording itself.

[00:56:15] It's been a pain in the ass so.

[00:56:17] I'm gonna we're gonna make an upgrade and lalini's time will all of a sudden become much more free because I imagine we're gonna have a lot less issues with

[00:56:26] with hardware limitations and lost recordings and and stuff like this so I'm excited to

[00:56:33] To have some new technology. It's gonna be it's gonna be fun

[00:56:36] And yeah, but trying not to get too sentimental over this this quote-unquote old thing. That's only actually barely three years old

[00:56:45] I will say for this episode, if you're watching on YouTube, for this episode, TJ is not in

[00:56:51] two different locations, but we recorded a pair of episodes here on Sunday before the

[00:56:56] two of us took off for spring training.

[00:56:58] That's a good point.

[00:56:59] It's exactly the point of everything all blending together and stuff like that.

[00:57:03] Yeah, it's it is all blended together.

[00:57:05] So for what it's worth, TJ knows this for, I guess, transparency or anybody that is curious,

[00:57:12] probably none of you are, but I got a new computer at one point in this process of doing

[00:57:15] the podcast too.

[00:57:16] For me, it was because trying to edit and upload things it was taking forever, like upload

[00:57:21] shows to YouTube is what I mean.

[00:57:23] And as a result, it just got to be too much

[00:57:26] of pain. And I said, okay, we've got to do something else. Therefore, I got a new computer. So TJ,

[00:57:31] you're not alone. And for the record, maybe it sucks thinking about it right now. But once you

[00:57:38] have it, you're like, man, this is this is a nice side relief. Yeah. Yeah. The problem is I really want a MacBook Pro.

[00:57:45] So I currently have the 2020 MacBook Air.

[00:57:47] It's a good computer.

[00:57:49] But again, the hardware specs are just not quite enough.

[00:57:51] I really, really want the new MacBook Pro.

[00:57:54] Just like reading some reviews of it.

[00:57:55] I'm like, man, I will never, ever have a speed issue about anything on this computer.

[00:58:00] But that thing's like $3,000 to purchase.

[00:58:03] So I was like, might be a little bit out of my budget.

[00:58:06] Hey, maybe if I went and worked in tech like I mentioned on our mailbag episode in a, in

[00:58:13] a, in a, in a, or episode earlier this week in a different life, I could be working in

[00:58:16] tech and three grand would be nothing.

[00:58:18] Throw that out and buy the brand new MacBook Pro and I wouldn't ever have a, have a, a

[00:58:24] smidge of doubt about processing power

[00:58:26] and computer speed ever again. But that's not the case because we work in sports and people don't

[00:58:31] make that much money in sports. So it'll be a different option. But it's gonna, it's me cool.

[00:58:38] My beef and I can, maybe the real speaker, I'm part of why that I'm excited to get a new laptop,

[00:58:43] but I need a new phone more than I need a new laptop

[00:58:46] Which really like my phone I have the the 10

[00:58:49] It's like this thing is slower than my current laptop is

[00:58:53] But I need the laptop because this podcast is a big part of our lives now

[00:58:57] So I need the I need the the recording power

[00:59:01] Oh, but I'm gonna need to find a way to find the money to also get a new phone

[00:59:05] as well, which stinks it's a lot of money, a lot of cash that I want to spend going on a trip to

[00:59:10] Europe instead. But as my grandma said today, as I was coming to record these two episodes and wish

[00:59:17] and wish me a happy birthday today, that don't always get to spend the money how you want. Even if you plan it out, life never works out that way.

[00:59:27] And you know, she's right.

[00:59:29] Not everything works out that way,

[00:59:31] but in due time, everything will be okay.

[00:59:34] Yeah, I guess that's a pretty good way to think about it.

[00:59:38] Maybe it's not the fun way to think about it,

[00:59:39] but it is the truth.

[00:59:40] But hey, doing this podcast is fun.

[00:59:42] And obviously we care about doing a good job with it, which is why the two of us have now both gotten new computers in this process. And

[00:59:48] hopefully one day, everybody can cross your fingers for TJ, he'll have a new phone at some point too.

[00:59:52] So my speaker mind this week, it's actually baseball related. It's even a little bit mariners

[00:59:58] related. So I hope I don't get too much flack for this, but objectively as a baseball fan, somehow I never really

[01:00:07] looked too much into the 2001 MVP voting, the year Ichiro won it.

[01:00:12] I don't know if you've ever really dug into this TJ, but somehow I was either reading

[01:00:16] some articles or just digging through fan graphs and baseball savant, but I stumbled

[01:00:20] across it and now it's kind of got me scratching my head.

[01:00:23] I want to preface this by saying for the record,

[01:00:26] I think Ichiro is absolutely a first-dollit Hall of Famer.

[01:00:29] I think he has a real chance to be unanimous.

[01:00:32] He is one of the greatest mariners ever.

[01:00:34] He's one of the greatest players ever,

[01:00:35] which is why he's going to be a first-dollit Hall of Famer.

[01:00:37] But strictly looking at that 2001 season,

[01:00:41] I don't know if you've ever paired up his numbers with Jason Giambi who finished in second and

[01:00:48] Let me put it like this if these two seasons happened in today's day and age at the same time

[01:00:54] I don't think each hero has an MVP to his name. So here's what I mean

[01:00:59] each hero in

[01:01:01] 2001

[01:01:03] Obviously had over 200 hits.

[01:01:05] He hit 350, amazing.

[01:01:07] And a six F war.

[01:01:09] Jason Giambi in 2001 hit 332.

[01:01:13] He had an 1137 OPS 1137 38 bombs, 19.2% walk rate, 12.4% k rate, 9.2 F war, which was

[01:01:24] much higher than each year. And this is the kicker,

[01:01:27] a one 93 WRC plus each year was not that. So I hope I'm not going to get black for this,

[01:01:36] but I just start looking at these numbers. I'm like, wow, times have changed in baseball a

[01:01:40] little bit. Because if this was today, I don't think he chose one of that MVP over Jason

[01:01:45] Giambi. The more I read some of these steroid era stats, the more I'm convinced the pitchers in

[01:01:51] that era were just not very good. I mean, are you kidding? A 19.2% walk rate? Yeah, you're telling

[01:01:58] me these guys couldn't strike these guys out more than 12% of the time. Barely more. Are you kidding

[01:02:04] me? And you know what the most hilarious part of all this is, Lyle, is that the man who makes

[01:02:09] Jason Jiambi look like that season looked like absolutely nothing is not in the Hall

[01:02:14] of Fame from that year.

[01:02:16] Correct.

[01:02:17] And by that, for those who maybe don't get the reference, very very much.

[01:02:20] Yes.

[01:02:21] Yes.

[01:02:22] That is crazy.

[01:02:23] Like, again, like this is no knock on each row. He was he obviously deserved rookie of the year

[01:02:28] He obviously deserved to be one of the eight Mariners in the all-star game that year

[01:02:31] He was the second best player in the American League that year like like which is really good

[01:02:37] But I hear 193 WRC plus for a hitter and I'm like that guy

[01:02:42] Lost the MVP and he put up a nine win season.

[01:02:46] Like, wow.

[01:02:47] Like, I don't know.

[01:02:49] He's your pretty defense like play better defense, better peer contact hitter.

[01:02:54] Still way more bases, by the way, like a way more obviously, but you know, the home run

[01:03:01] heavy numbers like WRC plus an OPS kind of favored nowadays.

[01:03:05] There's some pretty wonky voting back then. And you look at some of these MVP races,

[01:03:09] especially when a rod was with the Mariners and his, you know, first handful of seasons.

[01:03:15] The fact he didn't win an MVP as a Mariners is pretty bonkers. I'm like, this man is

[01:03:20] a 20 year old had a 10 win season.

[01:03:24] Crazy. Yeah, that's wild. And had a 10 win season. Crazy.

[01:03:25] Yeah, that's wild and he didn't win it.

[01:03:28] Like I don't think that ever he didn't even finish first on his own team.

[01:03:32] Yeah, that's that's crazy.

[01:03:35] Oh, that's the other crazy thing about 2001 to Brett Boone finished third that year and

[01:03:40] he had a monster year in 01 like monster year one of the best seasons at least power wise

[01:03:44] for a second baseman ever.

[01:03:46] So yeah, it's pretty crazy.

[01:03:48] That, that was a really good MVP class.

[01:03:50] And I was just looking at that and I, it made me kind of realize, Oh, wow.

[01:03:54] Like they're, they're, they're, there might have been a snub going on here as much

[01:03:57] as I love each year.

[01:03:58] Oh, I love each year.

[01:04:00] But just as an objective baseball fan looking at more in that lens in this sense.

[01:04:04] I was like, wow, that's, that is interesting. That's how I put that so I

[01:04:08] Don't know something

[01:04:09] I was kind of digging around and looking through and I said this is this is kind of on my mind

[01:04:14] I'm gonna bring it up see what see what you think and we'll see what all of our listeners think about it too

[01:04:18] So I'm sure there'll be some comments about it. I'm sure there'll be some people saying like how dare dare you slander a, your own, your own team, which I'm not

[01:04:26] slandering. It's just, it's just each, again, I think each year as a first ballot Hall of Famer. It's just maybe that year, he should have

[01:04:31] finished second, not first. That's all. So you bring up some good points. Hey, listen, yeah, it was like, I'm just gonna say in summary, like reading some of the box scores in the slash lines from the steroid or era are insane. It's crazy to think those

[01:04:45] things happened in like modern baseball. Yeah, it is it is wild. They need a PED wing

[01:04:51] in the Hall of Fame. That is my final statement. You cannot just act like all these guys didn't

[01:04:55] exist. Because like to be honest, hitters today don't do that. And they can't because the

[01:04:59] pitching's too good. Right. Now hitters would never have to 10 straight years of 200 plus

[01:05:04] hits either in today's day and age like each hero did

[01:05:07] But same concept pitching's way too good to ever do that. That's why hips are way down in baseball now

[01:05:12] so

[01:05:12] Yeah, games changed and it is fun to look back on some of those years. That's for sure

[01:05:18] All right, I think that just about wraps up this edition of the marine layer podcast

[01:05:22] You guys know the drill if you want to listen to the full form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio

[01:05:27] pod to make sure to download, leave us a five-star review, leave a written review.

[01:05:31] If you're watching on YouTube, make sure to like, comment, and subscribe.

[01:05:35] Follow us on social media too.

[01:05:36] We're on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod.

[01:05:41] That's TJ.

[01:05:42] I'm Lyle.

[01:05:43] As always, we thank you guys for tuning in.