Episode 176: Grading The 2024 Mariners Starting Pitchers

[00:00:00] [SPEAKER_02]: Welcome to episode number 176 of the Marine Layer Podcast. It's our starting pitcher season grades. We'll go one through five in the Mariners starting rotation and give them a grade for the 2024 season.

[00:00:11] [SPEAKER_01]: Here's your guys reminder as usual before we start this podcast. Do us a huge favor. If you're listening, make sure to download these episodes on the audio side rate and review five stars. It all really does help us out if you do that. If you're watching on YouTube, just take one second, hit subscribe. Every subscriber gets TJ and I closer to buying the Seattle Mariners. So if you want to see that happen,

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[00:00:40] [SPEAKER_01]: TikTok, Twitter, YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod. Let's get it rolling.

[00:00:56] [SPEAKER_02]: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network recording on Thursday evening, October 24th in a holding pattern for the final series of the Major League Baseball

[00:01:10] [SPEAKER_02]: season. The World Series will start tonight when this episode comes out. But as of right now, Lyle, we got nothing besides season greats to hand out.

[00:01:18] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, there's not much to banter about. We're waiting for the World Series to start.

[00:01:22] [SPEAKER_01]: No other baseball, no offseason stuff.

[00:01:26] [SPEAKER_01]: Shohei's 50th home run ball sold for over $4 million. That was like the biggest baseball news this week.

[00:01:31] [SPEAKER_02]: I heard a bit of banner on the show that on Brock and Salk that came out on Thursday. So you said you would only spend $40, not $400 on that ball.

[00:01:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's just like once you buy it, I don't know if somebody else is going to buy it for more.

[00:01:49] [SPEAKER_02]: Probably not. And I do agree with the investment point of it because Salk was talking about you would only purchase something like that as an investment.

[00:01:57] [SPEAKER_02]: I would imagine that's why someone spends $4 million on that. You don't spend, unless you're Steve Ballmer, you spend $4 billion to put something on your mantle.

[00:02:06] [SPEAKER_02]: I wouldn't. I would want to see some return on investment, whether it be $100,000, $200,000, something like that.

[00:02:13] [SPEAKER_02]: Do you like, I wonder if Shohei made an attempt to get that ball back.

[00:02:19] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, the Dodgers gave that fan some offer, but he turned it down. He would not give that ball back.

[00:02:24] [SPEAKER_02]: Well, I'm sure Shohei has some available cash to give that fan if he actually wants the ball back.

[00:02:31] [SPEAKER_02]: It's true. Yeah, it's true.

[00:02:33] [SPEAKER_02]: You'd think so.

[00:02:35] [SPEAKER_01]: That and last thing for 20 seconds before we go. You mentioned Steve Ballmer.

[00:02:40] [SPEAKER_01]: I was very jealous watching him in the stands with Clippers fans the other night. Very, very jealous.

[00:02:46] [SPEAKER_02]: He looked really engaged. That dome, by the way, oh my God, unbelievable.

[00:02:49] [SPEAKER_02]: He should build a baseball version of that in Seattle. That would be the coolest thing ever.

[00:02:54] [SPEAKER_02]: T-Mobile Park's great, but the Intua Dome, which just got built for the Clippers in Los Angeles, is incredible.

[00:03:01] [SPEAKER_02]: There's like 1,400 bathrooms in the arena.

[00:03:05] [SPEAKER_02]: 1,400 bathrooms for 20,000 fans.

[00:03:09] [SPEAKER_02]: Crazy.

[00:03:10] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[00:03:11] [SPEAKER_01]: So, if Steve Ballmer were to build that type of stadium in Seattle, you're insinuating that he would buy the team.

[00:03:19] [SPEAKER_02]: Well, he could afford both.

[00:03:21] [SPEAKER_02]: He did drop $2 billion on that arena out of his own pocket, so I don't think buying the Mariners would be too much of a hassle for him.

[00:03:28] [SPEAKER_01]: Right, but you're saying that if he was going to purchase and invest in a stadium like that, a baseball stadium in Seattle,

[00:03:34] [SPEAKER_01]: that is with the assumption that he is the owner of the baseball team.

[00:03:39] [SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

[00:03:40] [SPEAKER_02]: Yes, that is your correct, Lyle.

[00:03:43] [SPEAKER_02]: Well, doesn't sound like a terrible idea to me.

[00:03:46] [SPEAKER_02]: I'm just saying.

[00:03:47] [SPEAKER_02]: Well, he's worth over $100 billion.

[00:03:49] [SPEAKER_02]: Again, this is mostly like pocket change to him.

[00:03:51] [SPEAKER_02]: And he'll get ROI because everything makes money.

[00:03:53] [SPEAKER_02]: Team makes money.

[00:03:54] [SPEAKER_02]: The arena makes money.

[00:03:56] [SPEAKER_02]: It's a win-win.

[00:03:57] [SPEAKER_02]: Just like the Intuit Dome.

[00:03:58] [SPEAKER_02]: That thing's going to just churn out cash, hand over fist.

[00:04:01] [SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, you would think that when you build something like that, like artists' performances would rather go there than go to the Staples Center.

[00:04:10] [SPEAKER_02]: So, that's an intrigue.

[00:04:12] [SPEAKER_02]: It's like Climate Pledge now.

[00:04:13] [SPEAKER_02]: It's a lot more intriguing than going to Key Arena.

[00:04:15] [SPEAKER_02]: So, food for thought.

[00:04:17] [SPEAKER_02]: Steve Ballmer.

[00:04:18] [SPEAKER_02]: Steve Ballmer gets an A-plus grade for his stadium.

[00:04:21] [SPEAKER_02]: But in terms of Mariners' grades, Lyle, let's get to our starting pitcher grades for the 2024 season.

[00:04:26] [SPEAKER_02]: And let's start at the top with Logan Gilbert.

[00:04:29] [SPEAKER_02]: What's your 2024 grade for Logan?

[00:04:33] [SPEAKER_01]: A.

[00:04:34] [SPEAKER_01]: There's not much else you could say to give him.

[00:04:36] [SPEAKER_01]: You could argue for an A-plus.

[00:04:37] [SPEAKER_01]: He's probably not going to quite win the Cy Young, which is around the range that you'd have to put up to get an A-plus grade.

[00:04:43] [SPEAKER_01]: You're also talking 7-8 type win season for a pitcher to probably get that grade.

[00:04:47] [SPEAKER_01]: It's no knock on Logan Gilbert.

[00:04:49] [SPEAKER_01]: He was unbelievable in 2024.

[00:04:51] [SPEAKER_01]: So, he gets an A.

[00:04:54] [SPEAKER_02]: 2024 was the season that Logan Gilbert proved he was a $30 million pitcher.

[00:04:59] [SPEAKER_02]: That's a $30 million man on the bump.

[00:05:02] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he showcased everything that led him, that, you know, his evolution.

[00:05:10] [SPEAKER_02]: What's the right wording for this?

[00:05:12] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, he really showcased his evolution as a pitcher this year.

[00:05:15] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, what he had struggled with in the past, this year was like a continued constant progression towards getting to the best version of that and showcasing it for the Mariners.

[00:05:27] [SPEAKER_02]: That's why he gets an A for me.

[00:05:29] [SPEAKER_02]: Because we're talking about a deep repertoire.

[00:05:31] [SPEAKER_02]: We're talking about nasty off-speed pitches.

[00:05:34] [SPEAKER_02]: We're talking about a high strikeout rate.

[00:05:36] [SPEAKER_02]: We're talking about a low walk rate.

[00:05:38] [SPEAKER_02]: We're talking about a high ground ball rate.

[00:05:39] [SPEAKER_02]: While managing his hard hit rate, which was the biggest problem he had early in his career.

[00:05:44] [SPEAKER_02]: He got smacked all over the park.

[00:05:46] [SPEAKER_02]: This year, though, now that he has multiple plus off-speed pitches and a plus fastball, Andy's workhorse.

[00:05:53] [SPEAKER_02]: Andy threw the most hit innings in Major League Baseball this year.

[00:05:56] [SPEAKER_02]: Andy led Major League Baseball in WIP.

[00:05:58] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, what more do you want from a starting pitcher?

[00:06:01] [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you'd want him to make an all-star game.

[00:06:03] [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you'd want him to be top five in his league in F-4.

[00:06:06] [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you'd want him to develop some real, real plus pitches beyond just a fastball.

[00:06:13] [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, he did all that.

[00:06:14] [SPEAKER_01]: Made the all-star game.

[00:06:15] [SPEAKER_01]: Top ten in Major League Baseball in F-4.

[00:06:17] [SPEAKER_01]: Was fifth in the American League.

[00:06:18] [SPEAKER_01]: Four plus pitches.

[00:06:20] [SPEAKER_01]: This is what's been interesting about Logan Gilbert and exciting, if anything else.

[00:06:24] [SPEAKER_01]: Because you look at what he's done year by year in terms of pitches that he truly had.

[00:06:29] [SPEAKER_01]: And it's developed over each year to having more and more can't-hit stuff.

[00:06:36] [SPEAKER_01]: With 2024 absolutely taking the cake and being the biggest jump.

[00:06:39] [SPEAKER_01]: 2021, he had really one pitch.

[00:06:41] [SPEAKER_01]: One effective pitch.

[00:06:42] [SPEAKER_01]: It was his fastball.

[00:06:43] [SPEAKER_01]: 2022, he had two because he added that changeup, which he doesn't really use anymore.

[00:06:47] [SPEAKER_01]: But 2023, he had two effective pitches again, just like 2022.

[00:06:52] [SPEAKER_01]: Different offerings, but two effective pitches.

[00:06:54] [SPEAKER_01]: Slider and the splitter.

[00:06:55] [SPEAKER_01]: His fastball actually wasn't all that great last year.

[00:06:57] [SPEAKER_01]: However, this year, make it four.

[00:07:00] [SPEAKER_01]: Fastball, slider, splitter, curveball.

[00:07:03] [SPEAKER_01]: And he threw six pitches total.

[00:07:05] [SPEAKER_02]: It's pretty impressive.

[00:07:06] [SPEAKER_02]: He's the ultimate tinker.

[00:07:08] [SPEAKER_02]: He talks about it all the time.

[00:07:09] [SPEAKER_02]: The Mariners talk about it all the time.

[00:07:11] [SPEAKER_02]: He never is satisfied with what his repertoire is.

[00:07:14] [SPEAKER_02]: And it could have been so easy for Logan Gilbert as a rookie to evolve a little bit, but settle.

[00:07:21] [SPEAKER_02]: Some guys just settle, and they never get to reach their ceiling.

[00:07:25] [SPEAKER_02]: But Logan Gilbert never really allowed himself for that.

[00:07:28] [SPEAKER_02]: He allowed himself to get to the point where his off-speed pitches really just benefit his bread and butter, which was his fastball.

[00:07:35] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, he's got a plus fastball.

[00:07:37] [SPEAKER_02]: He's got all the things you would want out of a good fastball pitcher.

[00:07:41] [SPEAKER_02]: Not only is he tall, not only does he have a hundredth percentile extension, meaning the ball gets on the hitter significantly faster,

[00:07:49] [SPEAKER_02]: but he now has the off-speed pitches to both righties and lefties to complement that pitch and make it more effective,

[00:07:57] [SPEAKER_02]: where guys just can't guess if his fastball's coming anymore.

[00:07:59] [SPEAKER_02]: Because for the first time in his career, he threw more off-speed pitches than he threw fastballs.

[00:08:05] [SPEAKER_02]: Odds are, if you were stepping in the box against Logan Gilbert, you were more likely to get a slider instead of a fastball.

[00:08:12] [SPEAKER_02]: That's not a lot.

[00:08:14] [SPEAKER_02]: That's actually not true.

[00:08:16] [SPEAKER_02]: A lot of guys do that.

[00:08:17] [SPEAKER_02]: But not all of them do it as effectively as Logan, and none of them do it with the command that he does.

[00:08:22] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you'll notice this common theme with much of the Mariners' rotation,

[00:08:27] [SPEAKER_02]: but base runners can't get on against the Mariners' rotation.

[00:08:31] [SPEAKER_02]: They don't allow base runners.

[00:08:33] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, up and down, walks and hits per innings pitched against this rotation is pretty unbelievable.

[00:08:40] [SPEAKER_02]: And what I think really puts a cherry on top in an analytical sense for Logan Gilbert

[00:08:46] [SPEAKER_02]: is the expected numbers are good across the board.

[00:08:49] [SPEAKER_02]: They are consistent with what his ERA is.

[00:08:51] [SPEAKER_02]: He finishes the year with a 3-2-3 ERA.

[00:08:54] [SPEAKER_02]: His expected ERA is a 3-1-0.

[00:08:57] [SPEAKER_02]: His FIP is a 3-2-7.

[00:08:59] [SPEAKER_02]: His expected FIP is a 3-1-1.

[00:09:00] [SPEAKER_02]: That's very good.

[00:09:01] [SPEAKER_02]: When all of those things are essentially in a straight line like that,

[00:09:04] [SPEAKER_02]: that means he didn't get lucky.

[00:09:07] [SPEAKER_02]: No, he was just flat-out good this year.

[00:09:10] [SPEAKER_01]: And because he's the ultimate tinker,

[00:09:13] [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think this is the best version of Logan Gilbert.

[00:09:15] [SPEAKER_01]: I think he's got room to get even better.

[00:09:17] [SPEAKER_01]: As crazy as that is.

[00:09:18] [SPEAKER_01]: As scary as that is for opposing hitters.

[00:09:20] [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think this is the best version of Logan Gilbert yet.

[00:09:22] [SPEAKER_01]: I think he just took a huge jump

[00:09:24] [SPEAKER_01]: and established himself as one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball this year.

[00:09:29] [SPEAKER_01]: But he can get even better.

[00:09:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Because he's not going to win Cy Young this year.

[00:09:32] [SPEAKER_01]: He'll probably finish in the top five.

[00:09:34] [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he'll win.

[00:09:36] [SPEAKER_01]: But the way he evolved this year,

[00:09:39] [SPEAKER_01]: I think there's a Cy Young in his future.

[00:09:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Or at least a very good potential for a Cy Young in his future down the road.

[00:09:45] [SPEAKER_02]: And look, there could be a year.

[00:09:47] [SPEAKER_02]: If he had this season in a given year,

[00:09:50] [SPEAKER_02]: like the Porcello year, for example,

[00:09:52] [SPEAKER_02]: he might have more of a case.

[00:09:53] [SPEAKER_02]: Unfortunately, it's hard to argue against Tarek Skubel winning the Cy Young in the American League.

[00:09:58] [SPEAKER_01]: Stinks.

[00:09:58] [SPEAKER_02]: But he's just better.

[00:10:00] [SPEAKER_01]: The guy did win the pitching Triple Crown.

[00:10:02] [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah.

[00:10:03] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:10:04] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, that's nothing to complain about.

[00:10:05] [SPEAKER_02]: And nothing to really shellack Logan on.

[00:10:08] [SPEAKER_02]: It's not a knock on Logan.

[00:10:10] [SPEAKER_02]: It's just Tarek had an unbelievable year.

[00:10:12] [SPEAKER_02]: That's great.

[00:10:12] [SPEAKER_02]: Logan did slouch off in the second half a little bit.

[00:10:15] [SPEAKER_02]: Got hit a little bit harder.

[00:10:16] [SPEAKER_02]: The home run rate spiked in the second half.

[00:10:18] [SPEAKER_02]: That wasn't great.

[00:10:19] [SPEAKER_02]: There were some other guys to sort of fill in the cracks for Logan.

[00:10:23] [SPEAKER_02]: As dominant as he was in the first half.

[00:10:25] [SPEAKER_02]: Wasn't quite as good in the second half.

[00:10:28] [SPEAKER_02]: But again, we're really nitpicking here.

[00:10:29] [SPEAKER_02]: Because it was like a 401 ERA in the second half.

[00:10:32] [SPEAKER_02]: After a sub three in the first.

[00:10:35] [SPEAKER_02]: So like, okay.

[00:10:36] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, that's not really the end of the world.

[00:10:38] [SPEAKER_02]: Here's the thing that jumped out to me the most.

[00:10:41] [SPEAKER_02]: I, like, he led the league in whip, obviously.

[00:10:43] [SPEAKER_02]: 0.887.

[00:10:45] [SPEAKER_02]: Which is, by the way, the lowest whip ever recorded among a qualified Mariners pitcher in franchise history.

[00:10:51] [SPEAKER_02]: So he has that.

[00:10:54] [SPEAKER_02]: But on top of that, let me read you.

[00:10:57] [SPEAKER_02]: We tweeted this stat earlier out on Thursday.

[00:10:59] [SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to read it here on the podcast in case you didn't see it.

[00:11:02] [SPEAKER_02]: Here are some of the recent examples since 2000.

[00:11:06] [SPEAKER_02]: Of a pitcher to have a lower whip than what Logan Gilbert put up this season.

[00:11:10] [SPEAKER_02]: Just for some context, right?

[00:11:13] [SPEAKER_02]: For innings pitched.

[00:11:14] [SPEAKER_02]: Base runners, earned base runners allowed by a pitcher per inning.

[00:11:18] [SPEAKER_02]: 0.887 for Logan this year.

[00:11:20] [SPEAKER_02]: Those players are.

[00:11:22] [SPEAKER_02]: 2022 Justin Verlander, who won the Cy Young.

[00:11:26] [SPEAKER_02]: 2021 Max Scherzer.

[00:11:27] [SPEAKER_02]: Max Scherzer's last great season.

[00:11:29] [SPEAKER_02]: He finished third in Cy Young that year.

[00:11:31] [SPEAKER_02]: 2019 Justin Verlander.

[00:11:34] [SPEAKER_02]: Won the Cy Young.

[00:11:35] [SPEAKER_02]: 2017 Corey Kluber.

[00:11:37] [SPEAKER_02]: Won the Cy Young.

[00:11:39] [SPEAKER_02]: The 2015 top three in the NL Cy Young.

[00:11:42] [SPEAKER_02]: In one of the greatest Cy Young races of all time.

[00:11:45] [SPEAKER_02]: Jake Arrieta, Zach Greinke, Clayton Kershaw.

[00:11:48] [SPEAKER_02]: Those three beat him in 2015.

[00:11:50] [SPEAKER_02]: 2014 Clayton Kershaw.

[00:11:52] [SPEAKER_02]: Won the Cy Young.

[00:11:54] [SPEAKER_02]: And then go back 14 years, Lyle.

[00:11:56] [SPEAKER_02]: To the greatest pitching season arguably of all time by Pedro Martinez in 2000.

[00:12:00] [SPEAKER_02]: He also won the Cy Young.

[00:12:02] [SPEAKER_02]: That's it.

[00:12:04] [SPEAKER_02]: Those are the only players with a lower whip across an entire season since 2000 than Logan Gilbert.

[00:12:11] [SPEAKER_01]: So I'm hearing slam dunk Hall of Famers and Cy Young winners.

[00:12:16] [SPEAKER_01]: That's the list.

[00:12:18] Yeah.

[00:12:18] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'd extend that guy this second.

[00:12:21] Yeah.

[00:12:21] [SPEAKER_02]: 35?

[00:12:22] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[00:12:23] [SPEAKER_02]: I'll give him 35 a year right now.

[00:12:25] [SPEAKER_01]: And I think Logan's the most sustainable in this group.

[00:12:29] [SPEAKER_01]: Not that all five of these guys aren't really good.

[00:12:32] [SPEAKER_01]: But it's the fact that Logan is such a worker and such a tinker and never settles with what he's got.

[00:12:39] [SPEAKER_01]: Paired with the fact that he works so deep into games and is such a workhorse and throws so many innings.

[00:12:44] [SPEAKER_01]: This is a guy with a profile that should last a long time.

[00:12:48] [SPEAKER_01]: This is a guy who if you're looking at what he did in 2024, if you want to look at working into games and being a workhorse and leading baseball in innings pitched.

[00:12:56] [SPEAKER_01]: He went seven or more innings ten times this year.

[00:13:00] [SPEAKER_01]: He has no issues working deep into games and his stuff stays up throughout all of it.

[00:13:06] [SPEAKER_02]: It's pretty impressive.

[00:13:08] [SPEAKER_02]: He just also has the least amount of concern of anyone in this rotation.

[00:13:11] [SPEAKER_02]: He has the least amount of weaknesses.

[00:13:13] [SPEAKER_02]: His Vot page backs it up.

[00:13:15] [SPEAKER_02]: Like the expected numbers love him.

[00:13:16] [SPEAKER_02]: But if you just think about it, like the durability factor, the deep repertoire factor, the pitching deep into games, the home run rate, the ground ball rate, like all of these things all favor Logan Gilbert over anyone else in this rotation.

[00:13:30] [SPEAKER_02]: So he's got it all.

[00:13:31] [SPEAKER_02]: And that's why among your pitchers, he's priority number one to sign.

[00:13:36] [SPEAKER_02]: Should be clear as day.

[00:13:39] [SPEAKER_02]: There's no doubt about it.

[00:13:41] [SPEAKER_01]: But if you want to nitpick one last little thing, he does still get hit decently hard.

[00:13:47] [SPEAKER_01]: It's better than where it was.

[00:13:50] [SPEAKER_01]: But you know what?

[00:13:51] [SPEAKER_01]: No pitcher's perfect.

[00:13:53] [SPEAKER_01]: If he's got one weakness that every now and then he's going to give up some home runs because guys will barrel him up every now and then, you can take it.

[00:13:59] [SPEAKER_01]: You can take it with everything else he does in the season he just put together.

[00:14:02] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[00:14:03] [SPEAKER_02]: So he's about league average in that now.

[00:14:05] [SPEAKER_02]: 44th percentile.

[00:14:06] [SPEAKER_02]: Like you said, he used to be in about the bottom 10 percent in terms of getting hit hard.

[00:14:09] [SPEAKER_02]: Now it's right about in the middle.

[00:14:11] [SPEAKER_02]: That's a pretty good improvement.

[00:14:12] [SPEAKER_02]: Mm-hmm.

[00:14:14] [SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

[00:14:15] [SPEAKER_01]: Pitcher number two.

[00:14:16] [SPEAKER_01]: You could really put these guys in any order you want because all five of them were so great all year.

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[00:15:18] [SPEAKER_01]: Let's do George Kirby next.

[00:15:19] [SPEAKER_02]: What was your grade for him?

[00:15:22] [SPEAKER_02]: I gave him a B-.

[00:15:24] [SPEAKER_02]: Now you look at the peripherals of his season and you would say, well, he had 4.2 F4, which is above Logan, by the way.

[00:15:32] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, he was good.

[00:15:33] [SPEAKER_02]: He was very good this season.

[00:15:35] [SPEAKER_02]: 3.53 ERA.

[00:15:36] [SPEAKER_02]: A whip barely over one.

[00:15:38] [SPEAKER_02]: George Kirby had a very good season.

[00:15:40] [SPEAKER_02]: Was it great?

[00:15:44] [SPEAKER_01]: I think we have the biggest discrepancy on George Kirby grades among any of the pitchers.

[00:15:48] [SPEAKER_01]: So, I gave him an A.

[00:15:50] [SPEAKER_01]: If you're asking me, do I think George Kirby took some Logan Gilbert step forward this year?

[00:15:55] [SPEAKER_01]: No.

[00:15:57] [SPEAKER_01]: But if you're asking me, did I think George Kirby had a really good year?

[00:16:01] [SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

[00:16:01] [SPEAKER_01]: The guy's still going to finish top 7, 8 in Cy Young voting.

[00:16:06] [SPEAKER_01]: He was 4th in the American League in F4 among pitchers.

[00:16:10] [SPEAKER_01]: 9th in baseball.

[00:16:11] [SPEAKER_01]: Still led Major League Baseball in strike-out-to-walk ratio.

[00:16:15] [SPEAKER_01]: Shocker.

[00:16:16] [SPEAKER_01]: And all of his expected numbers were actually lower than where they were a year ago.

[00:16:20] [SPEAKER_01]: So, if you're asking, did I think George Kirby, do I think George Kirby, you know, developed these new and improved pitches the way that Logan did?

[00:16:31] [SPEAKER_01]: And he had all this swing and miss stuff.

[00:16:32] [SPEAKER_01]: No.

[00:16:33] [SPEAKER_01]: There's still room in his game to grow.

[00:16:36] [SPEAKER_01]: Did he have a really good year?

[00:16:38] [SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

[00:16:39] [SPEAKER_01]: So, I still gave him an A.

[00:16:41] [SPEAKER_02]: I'm just so torn on some things.

[00:16:43] [SPEAKER_02]: The expected number thing is absolutely true.

[00:16:45] [SPEAKER_02]: He had, by expected numbers, he was actually a little bit better this year than he was last year.

[00:16:49] [SPEAKER_02]: He also gave up more hits than any pitcher in the American League this year.

[00:16:52] [SPEAKER_02]: Do you know that?

[00:16:54] [SPEAKER_02]: Mm-hmm.

[00:16:55] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he did get hit.

[00:16:56] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, got hit more than anyone.

[00:16:57] [SPEAKER_02]: And by the way, the fact that he's still top 10 in whip despite giving up literally the most hits of any pitcher in the American League is pretty baffling.

[00:17:04] [SPEAKER_02]: And shows his command of the strike zone and the fact he finished the year with a 3% walk rate again.

[00:17:09] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, truly incredible stuff.

[00:17:11] [SPEAKER_02]: But Kirby, you know, we expect him to be on sort of the Logan Gilbert path of year-over-year improvement.

[00:17:17] [SPEAKER_02]: And the year-over-year improvement would have led to a higher strikeout rate than he had.

[00:17:21] [SPEAKER_02]: And the ability to miss bats a little bit more consistently.

[00:17:24] [SPEAKER_02]: We didn't see that.

[00:17:26] [SPEAKER_02]: And something like that really came up in August when he had a 6-8-4 ERA in August.

[00:17:30] [SPEAKER_02]: And a very memorable August for the Mariners because that's how Scott Skirvis got fired.

[00:17:34] [SPEAKER_02]: And George Kirby had, like, the worst month of his career in August.

[00:17:39] [SPEAKER_02]: He was atrocious.

[00:17:40] [SPEAKER_02]: It tanked his season.

[00:17:41] [SPEAKER_02]: If he didn't have that August, George Kirby would be a slam dunk A for me.

[00:17:45] [SPEAKER_02]: But that was a decent amount of, you know, that was a decent amount of his season.

[00:17:49] [SPEAKER_02]: He was rolling right along.

[00:17:51] [SPEAKER_02]: He had two great back-to-back months in June and July to get him to August.

[00:17:55] [SPEAKER_02]: But then in August, he gave up nine home runs in 25 innings.

[00:17:59] [SPEAKER_02]: It wasn't great.

[00:18:00] [SPEAKER_02]: You know, it was one of the guys you need to lean on for a little bit more consistency.

[00:18:05] [SPEAKER_02]: And no one in the Mariners rotation had a month like George Kirby had in August.

[00:18:10] [SPEAKER_02]: Just wasn't very good.

[00:18:12] [SPEAKER_02]: He was one of the worst pitchers in the American League that month.

[00:18:15] [SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, that factors into my grade a little bit of what I thought about George's season this year.

[00:18:24] [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how many other guys were putting together the two-month stretches that he had in June or July either,

[00:18:29] [SPEAKER_01]: where he had the 1-7-4 in June and the 2-2 in July.

[00:18:32] [SPEAKER_01]: So, you look at the month-by-month between George and Logan.

[00:18:36] [SPEAKER_01]: Logan's was a little bit more balanced.

[00:18:38] [SPEAKER_01]: Struggled a bit in the second half.

[00:18:39] [SPEAKER_01]: He didn't have that blow-up month the way that George did.

[00:18:43] [SPEAKER_01]: But Logan also never had a month where he had a 1-7 type ERA the way that George did.

[00:18:48] [SPEAKER_01]: So, when you combine the two, their seasons actually spit out to be pretty similar in a lot of ways.

[00:18:55] [SPEAKER_01]: It's just that George's had more peaks and valleys than Logan's did,

[00:18:59] [SPEAKER_01]: where Logan's was a little bit more flatline.

[00:19:01] [SPEAKER_01]: But when it all comes out to it, at least in my opinion,

[00:19:05] [SPEAKER_01]: while he might not have developed a true out pitch yet,

[00:19:09] [SPEAKER_01]: and that is what's keeping him from an A-plus instead of...

[00:19:13] [SPEAKER_01]: That's why I gave him an A instead of an A-plus.

[00:19:15] [SPEAKER_01]: That is the biggest thing with him.

[00:19:16] [SPEAKER_01]: He really still does need an out pitch in his game.

[00:19:20] [SPEAKER_01]: But he still was one of the most valuable pitchers in the American League.

[00:19:23] [SPEAKER_01]: And to be fair, his strikeout rate did actually jump up a little bit this year.

[00:19:26] [SPEAKER_01]: Not a ton, but it jumped up from where it was in 2023.

[00:19:29] [SPEAKER_01]: So, I tried to think about how we graded Kirby a year ago and what he did this year,

[00:19:34] [SPEAKER_01]: where there was improvements in a lot of ways.

[00:19:37] [SPEAKER_01]: So, I still gave him an A.

[00:19:39] [SPEAKER_01]: However, yes.

[00:19:40] [SPEAKER_01]: He needs an out pitch.

[00:19:41] [SPEAKER_01]: He really, really needs an out pitch.

[00:19:43] [SPEAKER_01]: Because if he does, then you're talking about a Cy Young winner.

[00:19:46] [SPEAKER_02]: And if he doesn't, this is just going to be more of what George Kirby is.

[00:19:50] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, this is going to be, I think, what George Kirby is, right?

[00:19:53] [SPEAKER_02]: You don't want him to stagnate.

[00:19:55] [SPEAKER_02]: Because if he continues the way he is, Lyle,

[00:19:58] [SPEAKER_02]: like, he is going to have the really great outings,

[00:20:00] [SPEAKER_02]: and he's going to have the great command of the strike zone.

[00:20:02] [SPEAKER_02]: But he's going to have blow-up starts,

[00:20:04] [SPEAKER_02]: because if you throw a ton of pitches in the zone,

[00:20:07] [SPEAKER_02]: and you don't generate a ton of swing and miss,

[00:20:09] [SPEAKER_02]: then you're going to get hit.

[00:20:10] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, these are all big league hitters.

[00:20:12] [SPEAKER_02]: And that played right into his season this year.

[00:20:14] [SPEAKER_02]: So that's what I think, like, a concern people might have

[00:20:17] [SPEAKER_02]: of watching a couple of very similar seasons

[00:20:21] [SPEAKER_02]: from someone who was 24 last year, 25 this year,

[00:20:25] [SPEAKER_02]: or 20, sorry, 25 last year, 26 this year,

[00:20:28] [SPEAKER_02]: just trying to, you know, take a step forward.

[00:20:31] [SPEAKER_02]: And especially his splitter.

[00:20:33] [SPEAKER_02]: We were expecting more out of his splitter this year.

[00:20:35] [SPEAKER_02]: We were expecting a Logan Gilbert jump in his splitter.

[00:20:38] [SPEAKER_02]: Well, you know, Logan saw his split in his third year in the big leagues,

[00:20:42] [SPEAKER_02]: which was last year,

[00:20:43] [SPEAKER_02]: but he had 35% jump to 50 this year.

[00:20:46] [SPEAKER_02]: Kirby has peaked this year in year three at 29% swing and miss.

[00:20:51] [SPEAKER_02]: That's just not really enough.

[00:20:53] [SPEAKER_02]: And he doesn't have another pitch to really go to in that aspect.

[00:20:58] [SPEAKER_01]: And to your point, if you look at his ERA plus for the year,

[00:21:00] [SPEAKER_01]: it was 104, which is almost the pitching version of OPS plus.

[00:21:06] [SPEAKER_01]: So hundreds league average by ERA plus,

[00:21:08] [SPEAKER_01]: he was only 4% above league average.

[00:21:10] [SPEAKER_01]: And that is what happens when you don't strike a ton of guys out

[00:21:14] [SPEAKER_01]: and you have some blow up starts in terms of what your ERA plus will look like.

[00:21:17] [SPEAKER_01]: So to that point, yeah, that could be a little bit higher.

[00:21:21] [SPEAKER_01]: But I still look at everything else and say, all right,

[00:21:24] [SPEAKER_01]: there weren't that many guys in the American league that were better than George Kirby.

[00:21:27] [SPEAKER_02]: And let's just remember this with all the Mariners pitchers.

[00:21:30] [SPEAKER_02]: Their ERAs might look a little bit better than your standard average pitcher

[00:21:35] [SPEAKER_02]: who pitched in a standard average park.

[00:21:37] [SPEAKER_02]: Because you mentioned the 104 ERA plus.

[00:21:39] [SPEAKER_02]: Well, Kirby's ERA does look very good.

[00:21:42] [SPEAKER_02]: It is, and with all the other four other starters,

[00:21:45] [SPEAKER_02]: boosted by the fact they pitched half the season at T-Mobile Park.

[00:21:49] [SPEAKER_02]: Very real factor.

[00:21:50] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but the expecteds are still pretty good.

[00:21:53] [SPEAKER_02]: They are, but 104 ERA plus takes into account the ballpark.

[00:21:58] [SPEAKER_02]: Nobody hit at T-Mobile Park this year.

[00:22:00] [SPEAKER_02]: Opponents didn't hit and the Mariners didn't hit either.

[00:22:02] [SPEAKER_02]: So whoever pitched at T-Mobile Park saw an immense benefit.

[00:22:06] [SPEAKER_02]: We'll highlight that with a couple of the other guys later on.

[00:22:09] [SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, George Kirby allowed three times as many home runs on the road.

[00:22:14] [SPEAKER_02]: Ball doesn't travel in Seattle.

[00:22:15] [SPEAKER_02]: Everywhere else it does.

[00:22:17] [SPEAKER_01]: The road thing is a problem for the whole rotation.

[00:22:20] [SPEAKER_01]: It's not a George Kirby thing.

[00:22:21] [SPEAKER_01]: It's something we've talked about with most of this rotation.

[00:22:23] [SPEAKER_01]: We talked about it in the middle of the year.

[00:22:25] [SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be something we talk about in 2025.

[00:22:28] [SPEAKER_01]: Because you can't just be a below league average rotation on the road.

[00:22:32] [SPEAKER_01]: That's where you play half your games is away from your home ballpark.

[00:22:35] [SPEAKER_01]: You've got to find some way to balance it out a little bit.

[00:22:38] [SPEAKER_01]: And it's going to be a storyline next year.

[00:22:39] [SPEAKER_01]: There's no doubt about it.

[00:22:41] [SPEAKER_01]: Now, one other thing I would actually really like to give George credit for here is we talked about in the middle of the year when he was having some of his struggles.

[00:22:48] [SPEAKER_01]: Because through the first two months, his ERA was a little over four.

[00:22:51] [SPEAKER_01]: He didn't get off to the hottest start.

[00:22:52] [SPEAKER_01]: We were wondering what was going on with him.

[00:22:54] [SPEAKER_01]: And we talked about he wasn't really getting any value or any real effect out of his slider.

[00:23:02] [SPEAKER_01]: You fast forward to the end of the year and he did a total 180.

[00:23:04] [SPEAKER_01]: Because the run value on his slider was nine.

[00:23:07] [SPEAKER_01]: And opponents were barely slugging 300 against it.

[00:23:09] [SPEAKER_01]: So, for everything we talked about with his slider earlier on in the year, he really did turn that around.

[00:23:14] [SPEAKER_01]: And I think that is a big reason why he had such a good summer until August.

[00:23:17] [SPEAKER_01]: And a big reason why he still ended up having a good season.

[00:23:21] [SPEAKER_02]: So, if George Kirby does this again next year, this season, does he still get an A for you?

[00:23:28] [SPEAKER_01]: It's hard because if you're asking me, is it all based off improvement?

[00:23:36] [SPEAKER_01]: You want to see the guy improve.

[00:23:38] [SPEAKER_01]: But my answer to the original question would be no.

[00:23:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Because, sorry, no in the sense of my question.

[00:23:46] [SPEAKER_01]: And is it all about improvement?

[00:23:47] [SPEAKER_01]: Because if he's a top five pitcher in the league every year, that feels like an A-level pitcher.

[00:23:51] [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, I want to see him become a Cy Young winner.

[00:23:53] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I want to see him develop out pitches, for sure.

[00:23:57] [SPEAKER_01]: But when you really boil it down, if he does this every year, there's not going to be that many pitchers in his league or in baseball that are truly better than he is.

[00:24:06] [SPEAKER_01]: So, he is one of the game's very good pitchers.

[00:24:09] [SPEAKER_01]: Is he an elite guy?

[00:24:10] [SPEAKER_01]: He's not there yet.

[00:24:11] [SPEAKER_01]: Again, he needs the out pitches.

[00:24:12] [SPEAKER_01]: But he is what I would call an A-level pitcher.

[00:24:15] [SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[00:24:17] [SPEAKER_02]: I try not to get too wrapped up in, like, really the difference between a B- and an A.

[00:24:24] [SPEAKER_02]: It's mostly perception and personal expectations, I would say.

[00:24:29] [SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, there are a couple factors here and there.

[00:24:31] [SPEAKER_02]: But, again, I really wouldn't worry about it too much.

[00:24:33] [SPEAKER_02]: It was a very good season for George Kirby.

[00:24:35] [SPEAKER_02]: I think I was expecting great from George.

[00:24:38] [SPEAKER_02]: And he had some struggles that he had struggled with in the past as well that kept him from that.

[00:24:45] [SPEAKER_02]: And I think that reflects on his grade.

[00:24:48] [SPEAKER_02]: So, let's get to our next guy.

[00:24:50] [SPEAKER_02]: Luis Castillo.

[00:24:51] [SPEAKER_02]: What's your grade?

[00:24:53] [SPEAKER_01]: Gave Luis a...

[00:24:54] [SPEAKER_01]: That wasn't English.

[00:24:56] [SPEAKER_01]: I gave Luis a B.

[00:24:57] [SPEAKER_01]: What about you?

[00:24:59] [SPEAKER_01]: I gave him a B-.

[00:25:02] [SPEAKER_01]: So, this has nothing to do with Luis missing his final couple of starts.

[00:25:07] [SPEAKER_01]: It has everything to do with how he performed this year.

[00:25:11] [SPEAKER_01]: Look, we talk about certain guys get graded on curves.

[00:25:14] [SPEAKER_01]: We talked about it with Julio.

[00:25:16] [SPEAKER_01]: And part of it is when you get paid the money that says you're going to pitch like a star, you're going to play like a star, then there's real expectations there.

[00:25:26] [SPEAKER_01]: And Luis didn't live up to that in 2024.

[00:25:29] [SPEAKER_01]: Now, he was good.

[00:25:31] [SPEAKER_01]: It's not like we're sitting here saying he got a D.

[00:25:33] [SPEAKER_01]: He still was good.

[00:25:34] [SPEAKER_01]: But if you want to just try and quantify his season based on his salary.

[00:25:39] [SPEAKER_01]: He had a 2.3 F war this year.

[00:25:42] [SPEAKER_01]: They say one war is worth about $8 million.

[00:25:46] [SPEAKER_01]: Luis Castillo was making a little over $24 million this year.

[00:25:49] [SPEAKER_01]: So, if you boil it down, he was about $6 million shy of where his expected value is supposed to be.

[00:25:57] [SPEAKER_01]: And if you want to look at it like that in a nutshell, paired with the fact that while he was still good, he just didn't really look like an ace at many points all year.

[00:26:06] [SPEAKER_01]: That's why I'm giving him a B and not an A.

[00:26:09] [SPEAKER_02]: And that's fair.

[00:26:11] [SPEAKER_02]: I would say my reasoning for that has less to do with the money because he earned the money based on past performance.

[00:26:18] [SPEAKER_02]: And you could still expect him to pitch like an ace.

[00:26:22] [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, but really quick.

[00:26:24] [SPEAKER_01]: But he was 31 this year.

[00:26:26] [SPEAKER_01]: If he was 36, 37, at some point guys are going to slow down.

[00:26:29] [SPEAKER_01]: 31, you shouldn't be slowing down right after you get a contract.

[00:26:32] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, but everyone ages differently.

[00:26:35] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, Felix doesn't age like Clayton Kershaw did.

[00:26:39] [SPEAKER_02]: We talked about that 10 years ago.

[00:26:41] [SPEAKER_01]: Felix debuted at 19 years old, though.

[00:26:43] [SPEAKER_01]: What age did Luis debut at?

[00:26:45] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm looking at it right now.

[00:26:45] [SPEAKER_02]: Well, Felix debuted then, but Luis Castillo was pitching in the pros at 19.

[00:26:49] [SPEAKER_02]: It's not like they don't throw.

[00:26:51] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he was in the big leagues at 24 years old.

[00:26:55] [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, like, sure they debuted at different ages, but it doesn't mean Luis Castillo when he was a teenager wasn't pitching.

[00:27:01] [SPEAKER_02]: Right?

[00:27:02] [SPEAKER_02]: No, he was pitching.

[00:27:04] [SPEAKER_02]: But he was pitching.

[00:27:06] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, he was pitching.

[00:27:06] [SPEAKER_02]: He wasn't pitching in the big leagues, but he was still throwing.

[00:27:09] [SPEAKER_02]: And if we're talking about aging, right?

[00:27:12] [SPEAKER_02]: Aging mostly comes with a loss of velocity and just a loss of feel and athleticism on the mound,

[00:27:18] [SPEAKER_02]: which for some guys comes at age 31, 32, 33.

[00:27:24] [SPEAKER_02]: And some people like Justin Verlander can win Cy Young's at 39-40.

[00:27:28] [SPEAKER_02]: Everyone's different.

[00:27:29] [SPEAKER_02]: You're right.

[00:27:30] [SPEAKER_02]: Neither of us expected Luis Castillo at age 31 this year to regress a little bit.

[00:27:36] [SPEAKER_02]: That was certainly disappointing.

[00:27:38] [SPEAKER_02]: And some of the expected numbers were a little bit higher, which wasn't good.

[00:27:42] [SPEAKER_02]: The strikeout rate took a massive dip.

[00:27:44] [SPEAKER_02]: His batting average against was higher.

[00:27:47] [SPEAKER_02]: The hard hit rate went up.

[00:27:48] [SPEAKER_02]: The fastball velocity lost a tick.

[00:27:50] [SPEAKER_02]: These are all not great signs when it comes to trying to look at an aging curve.

[00:27:57] [SPEAKER_02]: Because you don't want the velocity to go away, especially.

[00:28:00] [SPEAKER_02]: Velocity going down is a red flag.

[00:28:03] [SPEAKER_02]: Some of that could be mechanical.

[00:28:05] [SPEAKER_02]: We won't know until we see next year, Lyle, because sometimes guys will have blips in the middle of a contract year and then bounce back at age 32 and be just fine.

[00:28:13] [SPEAKER_02]: That could be a realistic case for Luis Castillo next year.

[00:28:17] [SPEAKER_02]: But there were some really concerning things about his season.

[00:28:22] [SPEAKER_02]: His performance against lefties this year was horrendous.

[00:28:26] [SPEAKER_02]: And it mostly was due to the fact that he doesn't have pitches to get lefties out.

[00:28:32] [SPEAKER_02]: His changeup and his sinker were his two worst pitches.

[00:28:35] [SPEAKER_02]: And those would be the two fishes.

[00:28:39] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, Luis Castillo likes to fish, by the way.

[00:28:41] [SPEAKER_02]: Fun fact.

[00:28:42] [SPEAKER_02]: Doesn't factor into the grade, but he's probably fishing right now.

[00:28:45] [SPEAKER_02]: His sinker and his changeup were his two best pitches to get lefties out.

[00:28:49] [SPEAKER_02]: And they were his two worst pitches this year.

[00:28:53] [SPEAKER_01]: The sinker is a big reason he didn't have a good year.

[00:28:55] [SPEAKER_01]: Sorry, he still had a good year.

[00:28:57] [SPEAKER_01]: It's the biggest reason he didn't have an elite year, period.

[00:29:00] [SPEAKER_01]: Because you look at what he's done the last couple of years.

[00:29:02] [SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about this.

[00:29:03] [SPEAKER_01]: Luis Castillo is a different pitcher now than what he once was.

[00:29:06] [SPEAKER_01]: Because he was a guy whose best pitch year over year was his changeup.

[00:29:10] [SPEAKER_01]: He dominated with that pitch.

[00:29:11] [SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't really do that anymore.

[00:29:13] [SPEAKER_01]: He's a guy that relies a lot more now on his foreseamer than he does on the changeup.

[00:29:17] [SPEAKER_01]: But the difference is, you look at what he did last year and what he's done in some years past.

[00:29:22] [SPEAKER_01]: A two-seamer has been really good for him.

[00:29:25] [SPEAKER_01]: He's really relied on it.

[00:29:26] [SPEAKER_01]: This year it got absolutely crushed.

[00:29:28] [SPEAKER_01]: And because of that, you saw him not garner as good a result as he has in some other years.

[00:29:34] [SPEAKER_01]: And it's another reason that his strikeout rate was the lowest it's been since 2018.

[00:29:38] [SPEAKER_01]: It's the second lowest mark of his career.

[00:29:41] [SPEAKER_01]: That pitch does a lot for Luis when it's on.

[00:29:44] [SPEAKER_01]: But it wasn't there this year.

[00:29:46] [SPEAKER_02]: So what do we expect now for his 2025 season?

[00:29:53] [SPEAKER_01]: You don't want to believe that he's going to fall off at age 31, 32.

[00:29:58] [SPEAKER_01]: Again, and if he does, that's an indictment on the Mariners.

[00:30:02] [SPEAKER_01]: Because they didn't see it coming and they gave him a pretty sizable contract.

[00:30:06] [SPEAKER_01]: Now, it's a lot less than Luis Castillo would have gotten out on the open market had he hit free agency.

[00:30:11] [SPEAKER_01]: So there was still the bargain aspect of that deal where they extended him.

[00:30:15] [SPEAKER_01]: But you're still talking about $24 million a year.

[00:30:17] [SPEAKER_01]: And while that's less than guys like Corbin Burns are going to get in free agency this winter, for example, you're still asking him to put up minimum three wins a season.

[00:30:28] [SPEAKER_01]: He didn't do that this year.

[00:30:29] [SPEAKER_01]: In fact, if you're somebody that likes baseball reference war better than fan graphs war, he didn't even get to two this year per baseball reference.

[00:30:35] [SPEAKER_01]: You need more than that from the guy that's paid to be your ace.

[00:30:40] [SPEAKER_01]: And you need the guy to strike more batters out because that's when he is really at his best.

[00:30:47] [SPEAKER_01]: And he cannot keep getting his getting hit as hard as he's gotten hit in the last two seasons.

[00:30:52] [SPEAKER_01]: He's gotten absolutely crushed in the last two seasons.

[00:30:54] [SPEAKER_02]: And what will frustrate people more is if Luis Castillo does regress a little bit more next year to still too early to tell.

[00:31:02] [SPEAKER_02]: But if he does and the Mariners decide they can't afford to extend another starter because they already paid Castillo.

[00:31:08] [SPEAKER_02]: You mentioned the oversight on the Mariners part.

[00:31:11] [SPEAKER_02]: The fans would feel not very happy about that because, you know, we highlighted the two guys above who are hopefully the long term future of the Mariners rotation.

[00:31:20] [SPEAKER_02]: They're young and they're getting better.

[00:31:22] [SPEAKER_02]: And Luis Castillo is the one is making twenty four million dollars because the Mariners decided to pay him then.

[00:31:27] [SPEAKER_02]: And he was worth it then because he was great when they acquired him in twenty twenty two is everything they wanted.

[00:31:32] [SPEAKER_02]: But right now he's just taking some troubling trends.

[00:31:36] [SPEAKER_02]: I just want to see him get lefties out next year.

[00:31:39] [SPEAKER_02]: His like I just need to read these lefties number.

[00:31:42] [SPEAKER_02]: He only had a nineteen percent strikeout rate against lefties.

[00:31:44] [SPEAKER_02]: That is like that's like Kyle Hendricks a level of not striking out.

[00:31:48] [SPEAKER_02]: Kyle Hendricks pitch for the Cubs.

[00:31:50] [SPEAKER_02]: He threw about eighty six.

[00:31:52] [SPEAKER_02]: It wasn't striking very many guys out.

[00:31:54] [SPEAKER_02]: A lot of five oh nine slug, 18 home runs and a five five seven fifth.

[00:31:58] [SPEAKER_02]: Just horrendous numbers against lefties.

[00:32:01] [SPEAKER_02]: And if he can't get lefties out now, that's that's trouble.

[00:32:07] [SPEAKER_01]: It is trouble.

[00:32:08] [SPEAKER_01]: And you mentioned that fans aren't going to be happy about not being able to pay Logan Gilbert if you paid Luis Castillo already and not being able to extend other pitchers.

[00:32:18] [SPEAKER_01]: That's part of it.

[00:32:19] [SPEAKER_01]: Fans also may be unhappy next year if Luis doesn't bounce back and they say to themselves, look, I know that no trade clause part of this does play a factor.

[00:32:28] [SPEAKER_01]: But if fans are saying to themselves, we had a chance to trade Luis over the winner and get some real value back for him while he still has value to his name and they don't.

[00:32:41] [SPEAKER_01]: And the offense struggles again to next year.

[00:32:43] [SPEAKER_01]: That's going to be another talking point, especially when you have some of these guys in the minors that look like they have a chance to be pretty good.

[00:32:51] [SPEAKER_01]: Logan Evans, Brandon Garcia, Michael Morales, etc.

[00:32:55] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not saying they're going to be Luis Castillo because those are not fair expectations.

[00:32:58] [SPEAKER_01]: Luis Castillo at his best is one of the game's best pitchers.

[00:33:01] [SPEAKER_01]: But if Luis is going to put up a win and a half next year.

[00:33:07] [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's crazy to say that one of those guys in the minors couldn't come up and put up a win and a half.

[00:33:12] [SPEAKER_01]: And if they do that and you got an extra bat in this hypothetical scenario for Luis.

[00:33:16] [SPEAKER_01]: Luis, it would be worth it.

[00:33:20] [SPEAKER_02]: So that'll be a big thing this offseason.

[00:33:23] [SPEAKER_02]: I would still say even despite his season, the priority should not be to trade Luis Castillo this offseason.

[00:33:29] [SPEAKER_02]: But no, it should just dictate that anyways.

[00:33:32] [SPEAKER_01]: No, and it should not be your priority.

[00:33:34] [SPEAKER_01]: In fact, I don't believe they should do it.

[00:33:36] [SPEAKER_01]: That's what I've been firm on for a while now.

[00:33:39] [SPEAKER_01]: And you have to don't trade from your rotation.

[00:33:41] [SPEAKER_01]: You want bats go out and sign them.

[00:33:42] [SPEAKER_01]: But hey, we haven't said it yet on this pod.

[00:33:44] [SPEAKER_01]: Not a smart strategy.

[00:33:45] [SPEAKER_02]: Not a smart strategy.

[00:33:47] [SPEAKER_01]: No.

[00:33:47] [SPEAKER_01]: So yes, I don't think you should be trading Luis.

[00:33:50] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm just saying if he goes out next year and he can't bounce back from 2024 and he continues to decline rather than progress back up.

[00:33:57] [SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be a talking point.

[00:33:59] [SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be a storyline.

[00:34:00] [SPEAKER_01]: One last thing.

[00:34:01] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[00:34:02] [SPEAKER_02]: I will add one last thing too.

[00:34:04] [SPEAKER_02]: Like we keep talking about 30, 32 being old.

[00:34:08] [SPEAKER_02]: It's not real for pitchers.

[00:34:09] [SPEAKER_02]: It's not really old in case you're worried about that.

[00:34:12] [SPEAKER_02]: It's it's not everyone does age differently.

[00:34:14] [SPEAKER_02]: But for the general pitcher pitching at age 32 is usually not an issue.

[00:34:19] [SPEAKER_01]: No.

[00:34:19] [SPEAKER_01]: And that's and that's why I was pretty startled that he didn't have the type of year that people expected him to have because you're not supposed to fall off that early.

[00:34:29] [SPEAKER_01]: Jacob deGrom got a huge contract at 34.

[00:34:32] [SPEAKER_01]: Max Scherzer got one at 38.

[00:34:36] [SPEAKER_01]: Now everybody age is different, but you shouldn't fall off at 31 years old usually.

[00:34:41] [SPEAKER_01]: So that is something to note.

[00:34:43] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[00:34:43] [SPEAKER_02]: What was it?

[00:34:44] [SPEAKER_02]: If we want to think of a comparison, like when Verlander had his dip with at the end of his Tigers tenure before he was an Astro was he how old was he then?

[00:34:54] [SPEAKER_01]: I believe he was older than you know what?

[00:34:57] [SPEAKER_01]: I was going to say he was older than Luis, but that was all the way back in 2017.

[00:35:00] [SPEAKER_01]: He got to the Astros.

[00:35:01] [SPEAKER_01]: So maybe it was a similar age when he got to the Astros.

[00:35:04] [SPEAKER_01]: He was he was 34.

[00:35:07] [SPEAKER_02]: So OK, so he was a couple of your older year old years older than Luis, but the couple of years before that he wasn't great.

[00:35:14] [SPEAKER_02]: No.

[00:35:15] [SPEAKER_02]: So then he figured out age 32 and 33 for him.

[00:35:18] [SPEAKER_02]: Right.

[00:35:19] [SPEAKER_02]: Just just again some perspective there.

[00:35:21] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:35:22] [SPEAKER_01]: Let me end this on a positive before we start to transition, because again, a lot of this has been in the Luis Castillo segment talking about we expected more.

[00:35:30] [SPEAKER_01]: We thought he was going to do more.

[00:35:31] [SPEAKER_01]: He just didn't do it.

[00:35:32] [SPEAKER_01]: Let me reiterate it again.

[00:35:34] [SPEAKER_01]: He still had a he still had a good year.

[00:35:37] [SPEAKER_01]: He just didn't have the year that people expected.

[00:35:39] [SPEAKER_01]: His ERA was still in the mid threes.

[00:35:42] [SPEAKER_01]: You're still talking about a guy that went out every fifth day.

[00:35:46] [SPEAKER_01]: And that's what I was going to highlight here that can't really be overstated while he wasn't an ace.

[00:35:51] [SPEAKER_01]: You're still talking about a guy that until that little hamstring injury had toward the end of the year, never missed starts, took the ball every fifth day and regularly going six and two.

[00:36:02] [SPEAKER_01]: That is valuable.

[00:36:03] [SPEAKER_01]: That does have value because he is dependable.

[00:36:08] [SPEAKER_01]: He posts and he keeps you in the game.

[00:36:10] [SPEAKER_01]: He wasn't quite ace level, but he kept in games and there is value to that.

[00:36:14] [SPEAKER_02]: And pitched on short rest and dominated in the playoffs.

[00:36:18] [SPEAKER_01]: That too.

[00:36:19] [SPEAKER_01]: That was a couple of years ago, but yes.

[00:36:21] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:36:22] [SPEAKER_01]: All right.

[00:36:22] [SPEAKER_01]: Let's take a quick pause before we get to the final two pitchers.

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[00:36:35] [SPEAKER_01]: All the sports you could want to watch are on.

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[00:36:40] [SPEAKER_01]: So you can watch a variety of events.

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[00:37:00] [SPEAKER_01]: All right.

[00:37:01] [SPEAKER_01]: The two young starters.

[00:37:03] [SPEAKER_01]: Let's start with Bryce Miller.

[00:37:05] [SPEAKER_01]: Your grade was?

[00:37:06] [SPEAKER_02]: A.

[00:37:08] [SPEAKER_01]: We're in lockstep.

[00:37:09] [SPEAKER_01]: I gave Bryce an A.

[00:37:12] [SPEAKER_02]: What?

[00:37:12] [SPEAKER_02]: This was the most impressive season out of anyone in the Mariners starting rotation.

[00:37:16] [SPEAKER_02]: Could you say that?

[00:37:18] [SPEAKER_01]: Where expectations were compared to what he did at season's end, yeah.

[00:37:23] [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if everybody thought Logan Gilbert was going to take this big a jump in 2024.

[00:37:28] [SPEAKER_01]: But I'd say people were less surprised that he did it than how much improvement Bryce Miller

[00:37:33] [SPEAKER_01]: made from year one to year two.

[00:37:35] [SPEAKER_02]: Like Bryce, like there was still like a tiny bit of bullpen conversation about Bryce into

[00:37:40] [SPEAKER_02]: the end of last year when he got, when he was getting rocked at the end of the season.

[00:37:45] [SPEAKER_02]: They were struggling against the Rangers.

[00:37:47] [SPEAKER_02]: His inning total was getting up.

[00:37:48] [SPEAKER_02]: It still was a thing.

[00:37:50] [SPEAKER_02]: And then all Bryce Miller did this year is come out and then just put up a sub three ERA.

[00:37:57] [SPEAKER_02]: Bryce Miller put up a sub three ERA in 2024.

[00:38:01] [SPEAKER_02]: I'm still struggling to wrap my brain around it.

[00:38:03] [SPEAKER_02]: He had a sub three ERA.

[00:38:09] [SPEAKER_02]: Like in my dreams for Bryce Miller in 2024.

[00:38:13] [SPEAKER_02]: If you asked me this preseason, I would have said you were crazy.

[00:38:17] [SPEAKER_02]: Like that's what the, that's why I say most improved because I was, I didn't think this

[00:38:23] [SPEAKER_02]: was going to happen.

[00:38:24] [SPEAKER_02]: He took the, we're talking about taking the ball every fifth day.

[00:38:26] [SPEAKER_02]: This dude up or down, took the ball every fifth day, pitched every single turn through

[00:38:31] [SPEAKER_02]: the rotation, except for his last one.

[00:38:33] [SPEAKER_02]: And then put up a sub three.

[00:38:36] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, except for his last one, but as just about everybody knows, it's about the worst

[00:38:41] [SPEAKER_01]: kept secret possible.

[00:38:42] [SPEAKER_01]: That was a phantom injury.

[00:38:44] [SPEAKER_01]: They just didn't want him pitching in a meaningless game in the last day of the, or in the second

[00:38:48] [SPEAKER_01]: to last day of the season when he didn't need to, because that injury they put them on

[00:38:52] [SPEAKER_01]: the IL with to end the year was a blister.

[00:38:55] [SPEAKER_01]: We can't know for sure if he had a blister or not.

[00:38:57] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to go on a limb here and say he probably didn't.

[00:39:00] [SPEAKER_02]: They wanted, they wanted to protect his stat line.

[00:39:02] [SPEAKER_02]: That's what they, that's what they want to do.

[00:39:03] [SPEAKER_02]: And he finished with like seven, seven, seven shutout in Houston.

[00:39:07] [SPEAKER_02]: Like just, just unbelievable stuff.

[00:39:08] [SPEAKER_02]: Here's the stat that blows me away the most about Bryce Miller season.

[00:39:12] [SPEAKER_02]: The only pitchers who threw more innings and had a lower ERA this season than Bryce are

[00:39:17] [SPEAKER_02]: Tarek Skubel and Zach Wheeler and Corbin Burns.

[00:39:21] [SPEAKER_01]: Is that not crazy?

[00:39:23] [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, it's crazy.

[00:39:25] [SPEAKER_01]: Let's stamp this right now because it's true.

[00:39:27] [SPEAKER_01]: Bryce Miller is going to finish in the top 10 of AL Cy Young voting.

[00:39:31] [SPEAKER_01]: He is going to, he's not going to win it, but he is going to finish in the top 10 because

[00:39:36] [SPEAKER_01]: when you rank top 10 in ERA, fifth in the American league behind Skubel, Ronel Blanco,

[00:39:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Frambois Valdez, Corbin Burns, you're going to finish in the top 10.

[00:39:47] [SPEAKER_01]: And the jumps he made this year were remarkable.

[00:39:51] [SPEAKER_01]: Last year, part of the reason we had this conversation about will Bryce be a bullpen arm long-term is he was only throwing two pitches by the end of last year.

[00:39:59] [SPEAKER_01]: He didn't really seem to have the comfortability to throw much else.

[00:40:02] [SPEAKER_01]: He had ditched a couple pitches late in the year last year.

[00:40:06] [SPEAKER_01]: Arsenal wasn't all that stretched out.

[00:40:10] [SPEAKER_01]: Again, he was very selective about the pitches he threw.

[00:40:13] [SPEAKER_01]: What he did with his splitter in one offseason paired with the jump in his four-seam fastball, incredible.

[00:40:21] [SPEAKER_01]: Guys hit 148 against his splitter.

[00:40:25] [SPEAKER_01]: Guys didn't hit it.

[00:40:26] [SPEAKER_01]: They just did not hit it.

[00:40:28] [SPEAKER_01]: And for a guy that had to figure out how to get lefties out in 2024, had to.

[00:40:33] [SPEAKER_01]: He could not come in again and give up a 900 OPS to lefties.

[00:40:37] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, he didn't because his splitter was unreal.

[00:40:39] [SPEAKER_01]: The run value on it was 10.

[00:40:42] [SPEAKER_01]: And lefties for the year against Bryce Miller put up an OPS that was just over 600.

[00:40:49] [SPEAKER_01]: Sorry, to be exact, 663.

[00:40:52] [SPEAKER_01]: So not just over 600, but in the 600s.

[00:40:54] [SPEAKER_01]: It's really good.

[00:40:55] [SPEAKER_01]: Righties, by the way, 512.

[00:40:57] [SPEAKER_02]: I have another declaration for Bryce.

[00:41:00] [SPEAKER_02]: So we've now seen, we've now, at the end of this year, totaled four second years of their homegrown talent in the rotation.

[00:41:08] [SPEAKER_02]: He had by far the best one of any of them.

[00:41:11] [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe not by far.

[00:41:12] [SPEAKER_02]: Kirby's second year last year is pretty good.

[00:41:15] [SPEAKER_02]: But he had the best one.

[00:41:17] [SPEAKER_02]: Right?

[00:41:17] [SPEAKER_02]: Best second year of anyone homegrown in the Mariners rotation.

[00:41:21] [SPEAKER_02]: Is that, you think that's true?

[00:41:24] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:41:24] [SPEAKER_01]: The jump he had from year one to year two?

[00:41:28] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:41:28] [SPEAKER_01]: Again, we're talking about a guy that had the chance to be a bullpen arm.

[00:41:33] [SPEAKER_01]: Because back in the offseason, back toward the end of last season, there was still a conversation of,

[00:41:37] [SPEAKER_01]: well, Robbie Ray's still in the organization.

[00:41:39] [SPEAKER_01]: What happens when he comes back?

[00:41:40] [SPEAKER_01]: Somebody's not going to pitch in this rotation.

[00:41:42] [SPEAKER_01]: And we said if Bryce didn't have a good first half?

[00:41:45] [SPEAKER_01]: Seemed like the choice to get moved to the bullpen.

[00:41:48] [SPEAKER_01]: Not anymore.

[00:41:49] [SPEAKER_01]: He's not going out to the bullpen anymore.

[00:41:50] [SPEAKER_01]: There is no chance.

[00:41:52] [SPEAKER_02]: You want another whip stat?

[00:41:55] [SPEAKER_02]: Of course.

[00:41:55] [SPEAKER_02]: This one for Bryce.

[00:41:56] [SPEAKER_02]: Because Bryce is one of four pitchers in Major League Baseball to have a sub-one whip this year.

[00:42:00] [SPEAKER_02]: But it gets better than that.

[00:42:02] [SPEAKER_02]: Logan set the record.

[00:42:03] [SPEAKER_02]: When we talked about it earlier, set the Mariners' full season record.

[00:42:06] [SPEAKER_02]: I'm up for a starting pitcher.

[00:42:08] [SPEAKER_02]: Bryce is third.

[00:42:08] [SPEAKER_02]: All time.

[00:42:10] [SPEAKER_02]: It's 2024 Logan Gilbert, 2014 Felix, and 2024 Bryce Miller.

[00:42:17] [SPEAKER_02]: All time in Mariners history.

[00:42:20] [SPEAKER_02]: That's ridiculous.

[00:42:22] [SPEAKER_02]: That's ridiculous.

[00:42:23] [SPEAKER_02]: That totally flies under the radar.

[00:42:26] [SPEAKER_02]: And I will note this.

[00:42:29] [SPEAKER_02]: Whip is not era adjusted.

[00:42:30] [SPEAKER_02]: It does not factor in the league offensive environment.

[00:42:33] [SPEAKER_02]: As you can imagine, Lyle.

[00:42:34] [SPEAKER_02]: In the steroid era, there weren't many sub-one whips.

[00:42:38] [SPEAKER_02]: Because guys hit a lot.

[00:42:40] [SPEAKER_02]: But still pretty cool stat.

[00:42:43] [SPEAKER_01]: Really cool stat.

[00:42:44] [SPEAKER_01]: You know what else is a cool stat?

[00:42:46] [SPEAKER_01]: His 189 ERA in the second half.

[00:42:48] [SPEAKER_01]: He was good in the first half.

[00:42:50] [SPEAKER_01]: He was remarkable in the second half.

[00:42:53] [SPEAKER_02]: How about this?

[00:42:54] [SPEAKER_02]: This was, I think, a more impressive second half stat.

[00:42:57] [SPEAKER_02]: He notedly struggled on the road this season.

[00:43:00] [SPEAKER_02]: Because he had an ERA over four on the road for the totality of the season.

[00:43:04] [SPEAKER_02]: Shockingly, Lyle, he pitched well at home.

[00:43:06] [SPEAKER_02]: A 196 ERA at T-Mobile Park with a 30% strikeout rate.

[00:43:10] [SPEAKER_02]: A Cy Young candidate at home.

[00:43:12] [SPEAKER_02]: But these second half stats on the road.

[00:43:15] [SPEAKER_02]: In fact, bigger sample than second half.

[00:43:18] [SPEAKER_02]: For the final three months of the season, on the road, he had a 176 ERA.

[00:43:25] [SPEAKER_01]: That's a pretty big turnaround from when he got torched in Kansas City.

[00:43:30] [SPEAKER_01]: They blew that big lead.

[00:43:31] [SPEAKER_01]: We were talking about how drastic his home road splits were.

[00:43:35] [SPEAKER_01]: What a turnaround.

[00:43:36] [SPEAKER_02]: Do you remember that start he had against the Marlins when you and I were freaking out a little bit?

[00:43:41] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:43:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:43:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, of course.

[00:43:43] [SPEAKER_01]: It was just a struggle to pitch away from T-Mobile Park.

[00:43:46] [SPEAKER_01]: But if you look at what he did in the second half on the road, you're absolutely right.

[00:43:50] [SPEAKER_01]: And I have a similar note down.

[00:43:51] [SPEAKER_01]: He was dominant.

[00:43:53] [SPEAKER_01]: And it played into his dominant second half.

[00:43:56] [SPEAKER_01]: He did it at home and on the road.

[00:43:58] [SPEAKER_01]: What this guy's done from year one to year two in going from having two pitches, none of which were all that effective by season's end last year,

[00:44:07] [SPEAKER_01]: to having two absolutely dominant pitches with the four-seamer and the splitter, but also having that two-seamer as well with the sinker.

[00:44:15] [SPEAKER_01]: Awesome stuff.

[00:44:16] [SPEAKER_01]: Now, just like any pitcher, there are things I'm sure we'd both like to see Bryce improve on next year, as a lot of fans would.

[00:44:24] [SPEAKER_01]: I'd love to see him still limit some hard contact.

[00:44:28] [SPEAKER_01]: He got better this year, but you're talking about marginally better.

[00:44:32] [SPEAKER_01]: For example, his average exit velocity among league ranks went from 10th percentile to 14th percentile.

[00:44:39] [SPEAKER_01]: His hard hit rate went from the 26th percentile to the 28th percentile.

[00:44:44] [SPEAKER_01]: So it would be nice to see him not give up quite as much hard contact in year three.

[00:44:48] [SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't have to be perfect.

[00:44:49] [SPEAKER_01]: We just talked about it with Logan.

[00:44:50] [SPEAKER_01]: He's going to finish top five in Cy Young voting.

[00:44:53] [SPEAKER_01]: He still gets hit hard at times.

[00:44:55] [SPEAKER_01]: Bryce doesn't have to be in the 90th percentile of hard hit rate.

[00:44:59] [SPEAKER_01]: We're just asking that maybe he's more toward the league average mark,

[00:45:02] [SPEAKER_01]: because if he does that with everything else he's already done, he can take another jump.

[00:45:07] [SPEAKER_02]: I also wonder how Bryce would be if the Mariners try and fix whatever they believe the issue is

[00:45:12] [SPEAKER_02]: at T-Mobile Park for hitters this year.

[00:45:14] [SPEAKER_02]: How does that affect Bryce?

[00:45:17] [SPEAKER_02]: I highlighted his second half road numbers, but that's only half a season, not a full season.

[00:45:21] [SPEAKER_02]: Full seasons encompass a lot more and are a better sample size to draw from than half a season.

[00:45:26] [SPEAKER_02]: So how would he be impacted by that?

[00:45:28] [SPEAKER_02]: You could ask that for the entire Mariners rotation, but for Bryce especially,

[00:45:32] [SPEAKER_02]: since he had the biggest difference between home and road out of any Mariner starting pitcher.

[00:45:37] [SPEAKER_02]: One more positive thing I'd like to highlight for Bryce that was talked about a lot on Mariners broadcasts.

[00:45:44] [SPEAKER_02]: Bryce talked about it a little bit.

[00:45:45] [SPEAKER_02]: We've highlighted it on here, but just want to sort of bring everything full circle here

[00:45:49] [SPEAKER_02]: with I think his most important secondary pitch.

[00:45:53] [SPEAKER_02]: It wasn't a splitter.

[00:45:55] [SPEAKER_02]: His splitter was not his most important secondary pitch.

[00:45:58] [SPEAKER_02]: It was his knuckle curve.

[00:46:00] [SPEAKER_02]: You could draw a correlation line between the start of his insane second half run

[00:46:06] [SPEAKER_02]: and Bryce throwing his knuckle curve a lot more.

[00:46:10] [SPEAKER_02]: He started throwing it a lot right at the end of June,

[00:46:15] [SPEAKER_02]: and once July started, Bryce took off, and he was great.

[00:46:20] [SPEAKER_02]: He was among the best pitchers in baseball.

[00:46:22] [SPEAKER_02]: So that pitch, which is his highest whiff rate pitch at 38%,

[00:46:27] [SPEAKER_02]: it's pretty important to his success.

[00:46:30] [SPEAKER_02]: Pretty awesome.

[00:46:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Awesome.

[00:46:32] [SPEAKER_01]: Awesome year, and I can't wait to see what he does in year three.

[00:46:35] [SPEAKER_01]: All right, last guy.

[00:46:37] [SPEAKER_01]: Brian Wu.

[00:46:38] [SPEAKER_01]: Your grade is?

[00:46:40] [SPEAKER_01]: F.

[00:46:41] [SPEAKER_02]: No, I'm kidding.

[00:46:41] [SPEAKER_02]: Just for you.

[00:46:42] [SPEAKER_01]: He got a B+.

[00:46:45] [SPEAKER_01]: So we differ a little bit on this one, but not by much.

[00:46:47] [SPEAKER_01]: I gave him an A.

[00:46:49] [SPEAKER_01]: I think the injuries obviously played a factor,

[00:46:53] [SPEAKER_01]: and it was frustrating at times.

[00:46:54] [SPEAKER_01]: I know for him he talked about it, but I'm sure for a lot of fans,

[00:46:57] [SPEAKER_01]: the fact that he would go out, and after missing the first month of the year,

[00:47:02] [SPEAKER_01]: he would go out, and he would have a really good start,

[00:47:03] [SPEAKER_01]: and he would show some of that dominant stuff.

[00:47:06] [SPEAKER_01]: But these tiny, nagging, lingering injuries kept him on the shelf

[00:47:11] [SPEAKER_01]: for different short spurts of time throughout a lot of the first half.

[00:47:15] [SPEAKER_01]: And that is a reason, for example, that he's not an A+.

[00:47:19] [SPEAKER_01]: I gave him an A, or you gave him a B+.

[00:47:21] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure that's a part of your grade here too.

[00:47:23] [SPEAKER_01]: But man, there's so much I want to get into with Brian Wu.

[00:47:27] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going to do it all here in one breath or one sentence,

[00:47:30] [SPEAKER_01]: but to see what he did from August and on,

[00:47:33] [SPEAKER_01]: and to see what he did in year's totality,

[00:47:36] [SPEAKER_01]: 289 ERA, all his expected were good.

[00:47:39] [SPEAKER_01]: And again, I can't stress enough the final two months with all the different pitches he throws.

[00:47:44] [SPEAKER_01]: A.

[00:47:46] [SPEAKER_02]: His B+, for me, stems mostly for his health,

[00:47:49] [SPEAKER_02]: because he wasn't available for a big chunk of time.

[00:47:53] [SPEAKER_02]: And the best thing about this Mariners rotation this year was the health of it.

[00:47:58] [SPEAKER_02]: But he was the unhealthiest.

[00:48:00] [SPEAKER_02]: It's not anything he can really control,

[00:48:03] [SPEAKER_02]: but it did affect his season, affected his workload,

[00:48:06] [SPEAKER_02]: it affected a number of starts the Mariners had to put out in his slot

[00:48:10] [SPEAKER_02]: much of the first half because he wasn't available.

[00:48:12] [SPEAKER_02]: On top of that, there were the nagging things when he actually did pitch.

[00:48:17] [SPEAKER_02]: In the first four months of the season,

[00:48:20] [SPEAKER_02]: he struggled to get past the fifth inning

[00:48:23] [SPEAKER_02]: because he wasn't stretched out,

[00:48:26] [SPEAKER_02]: because something would flare up on him,

[00:48:30] [SPEAKER_02]: and it just wasn't effective.

[00:48:33] [SPEAKER_02]: He wasn't pitching enough to be consistent,

[00:48:35] [SPEAKER_02]: as good as the per-inning basis was,

[00:48:38] [SPEAKER_02]: and we'll get into the per-inning stuff, which is amazing.

[00:48:40] [SPEAKER_02]: He just didn't pitch deep enough to be consistent enough

[00:48:44] [SPEAKER_02]: for an every-fifth-day big-league starter.

[00:48:48] [SPEAKER_02]: And then Cal Raleigh talked to him at the end of July.

[00:48:50] [SPEAKER_02]: Lyle goes out against the Phillies,

[00:48:52] [SPEAKER_02]: throws seven innings complete,

[00:48:54] [SPEAKER_02]: and the rest is history.

[00:48:56] [SPEAKER_02]: He threw the third-most innings from that point on

[00:48:58] [SPEAKER_02]: to the rest of the season of anyone in Major League Baseball.

[00:49:01] [SPEAKER_02]: He turned it around.

[00:49:02] [SPEAKER_02]: He showed he could do it.

[00:49:03] [SPEAKER_02]: The problem was in the first part of the season,

[00:49:05] [SPEAKER_02]: he just wasn't all that available.

[00:49:06] [SPEAKER_02]: So that affects his grade for me,

[00:49:09] [SPEAKER_02]: but it doesn't take away from the fact he had an unbelievable season.

[00:49:13] [SPEAKER_01]: Unreal.

[00:49:14] [SPEAKER_01]: Where do we even want to start?

[00:49:16] [SPEAKER_01]: I think the thing that continues to jump out to me the most about him

[00:49:20] [SPEAKER_01]: was he just didn't walk anybody.

[00:49:23] [SPEAKER_01]: I know we talked about it during the year,

[00:49:25] [SPEAKER_01]: but the fact that in his rookie year,

[00:49:27] [SPEAKER_01]: it's not like he was a walk machine,

[00:49:28] [SPEAKER_01]: but he was about league average in terms of his walk rate.

[00:49:31] [SPEAKER_01]: And he comes out in year two and says,

[00:49:33] [SPEAKER_01]: yeah, I don't really like walking guys anymore.

[00:49:35] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm just going to not do that

[00:49:36] [SPEAKER_01]: because he was in the 100th percentile.

[00:49:39] [SPEAKER_01]: 100th.

[00:49:40] [SPEAKER_01]: His walks per nine were lower than George Kirby's.

[00:49:43] [SPEAKER_01]: George Kirby's the king of not walking batters.

[00:49:47] [SPEAKER_01]: But who had the lower walks per nine?

[00:49:49] [SPEAKER_01]: Brian Wu.

[00:49:52] [SPEAKER_02]: That's just bizarre because he was at 8.5% last year.

[00:49:56] [SPEAKER_02]: Mm-hmm.

[00:49:57] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, George has been great

[00:49:58] [SPEAKER_02]: ever since he signed as a professional.

[00:50:01] [SPEAKER_02]: Brian Wu is never one to be like,

[00:50:03] [SPEAKER_02]: yeah, I'm never going to walk anybody in the minor leagues.

[00:50:07] [SPEAKER_02]: But he is now.

[00:50:08] [SPEAKER_02]: It helps he only throw...

[00:50:10] [SPEAKER_02]: He, for about 73% of the time,

[00:50:12] [SPEAKER_02]: only throws pitches that go straight

[00:50:13] [SPEAKER_02]: or straight-ish for the most part.

[00:50:16] [SPEAKER_02]: That's a big factor to it.

[00:50:17] [SPEAKER_02]: But if the hitters don't hit it,

[00:50:20] [SPEAKER_02]: then it doesn't really matter.

[00:50:22] [SPEAKER_02]: So he managed to throw his two fastballs

[00:50:25] [SPEAKER_02]: like 70-plus percent of the time,

[00:50:27] [SPEAKER_02]: and no one could hit it.

[00:50:29] [SPEAKER_02]: It was essentially, instead of having a change-up,

[00:50:31] [SPEAKER_02]: that was his out pitch against lefties.

[00:50:33] [SPEAKER_02]: Instead of developing, like, a Bryce Miller splitter

[00:50:36] [SPEAKER_02]: to get lefties out,

[00:50:38] [SPEAKER_02]: he was just like, hit my fastball.

[00:50:40] [SPEAKER_02]: And they couldn't do it.

[00:50:42] [SPEAKER_02]: 606 OPS after a 928 OPS against lefties last year.

[00:50:46] [SPEAKER_02]: Really, really impressive jump for Mr. Brian Wu.

[00:50:50] [SPEAKER_02]: His two halves really fascinate me

[00:50:53] [SPEAKER_02]: because one had more volume

[00:50:54] [SPEAKER_02]: and one was more effective,

[00:50:56] [SPEAKER_02]: which I'm interested to get your take on

[00:50:58] [SPEAKER_02]: which one you would prefer.

[00:50:59] [SPEAKER_02]: So in the first half,

[00:51:00] [SPEAKER_02]: he only threw about 44 innings,

[00:51:02] [SPEAKER_02]: but he had a 2-4-5 ERA,

[00:51:04] [SPEAKER_02]: which is insane and really good,

[00:51:05] [SPEAKER_02]: and all of his numbers were great.

[00:51:08] [SPEAKER_02]: In the second half,

[00:51:09] [SPEAKER_02]: he had a higher strikeout rate,

[00:51:11] [SPEAKER_02]: more innings at 77 and a third,

[00:51:13] [SPEAKER_02]: but a higher ERA at 3.14.

[00:51:16] [SPEAKER_02]: I'd probably take his second half

[00:51:17] [SPEAKER_02]: because he suits the rotation a little bit better,

[00:51:20] [SPEAKER_02]: but what we were talking about early in the year,

[00:51:23] [SPEAKER_02]: it's like, man, he's not pitching a lot,

[00:51:25] [SPEAKER_02]: but when he is,

[00:51:25] [SPEAKER_02]: he's legitimately the best starter in baseball.

[00:51:29] [SPEAKER_01]: I'd still take his second half

[00:51:31] [SPEAKER_01]: because he was available,

[00:51:32] [SPEAKER_01]: because he was on the mound pitching,

[00:51:34] [SPEAKER_01]: but also his second half numbers

[00:51:37] [SPEAKER_01]: are a little bit skewed

[00:51:39] [SPEAKER_01]: because he had one true blow-up start all year.

[00:51:42] [SPEAKER_01]: One.

[00:51:42] [SPEAKER_01]: And that came against the Yankees in September.

[00:51:46] [SPEAKER_01]: If you split it up and take that start out,

[00:51:49] [SPEAKER_01]: it looks more like this.

[00:51:50] [SPEAKER_01]: From August 1st to September 16th,

[00:51:53] [SPEAKER_01]: he had a 2-42 ERA.

[00:51:55] [SPEAKER_01]: Then in his final two starts of the year,

[00:51:57] [SPEAKER_01]: after that Yankees blow-up outing,

[00:51:58] [SPEAKER_01]: he had a 3-27.

[00:52:00] [SPEAKER_01]: So you take that start away,

[00:52:03] [SPEAKER_01]: and his ERA for the second half is a lot lower.

[00:52:08] [SPEAKER_01]: So yes, I would take his second half.

[00:52:09] [SPEAKER_01]: Blow-up starts are going to happen for any pitcher.

[00:52:11] [SPEAKER_01]: It just happens.

[00:52:12] [SPEAKER_01]: And that was his one all year.

[00:52:14] [SPEAKER_01]: I would still take his second half.

[00:52:16] [SPEAKER_02]: The other thing that was really promising to see,

[00:52:18] [SPEAKER_02]: he did develop a plus off-speed this year.

[00:52:20] [SPEAKER_02]: His sweeper was not great for him last year,

[00:52:22] [SPEAKER_02]: but this year was pretty good.

[00:52:23] [SPEAKER_02]: Run value liked it.

[00:52:24] [SPEAKER_02]: It was into the positive.

[00:52:25] [SPEAKER_02]: It was at plus five.

[00:52:27] [SPEAKER_02]: And that helped him against righties.

[00:52:29] [SPEAKER_02]: So he at least had some balance.

[00:52:32] [SPEAKER_02]: Guys couldn't hit his sweeper.

[00:52:34] [SPEAKER_02]: They slugged 100 against it.

[00:52:37] [SPEAKER_01]: Could not hit it.

[00:52:38] [SPEAKER_02]: He just didn't throw it with the highest volume,

[00:52:40] [SPEAKER_02]: which is why the run value is only five.

[00:52:44] [SPEAKER_01]: But still, you slug 100 against a pitch for all opponents.

[00:52:48] [SPEAKER_01]: I think it says a lot.

[00:52:49] [SPEAKER_01]: Now, his secondaries, in totality,

[00:52:52] [SPEAKER_01]: the usage of it did take a jump up this year

[00:52:55] [SPEAKER_01]: because all of them were used at about a 9% rate.

[00:52:57] [SPEAKER_01]: That wasn't true with a lot of his pitches last year.

[00:52:59] [SPEAKER_01]: Sweeper used it at about the same rate.

[00:53:01] [SPEAKER_01]: And again, it was an awesome, awesome pitch for him this year.

[00:53:05] [SPEAKER_01]: I do want to talk about his changeup a little bit

[00:53:09] [SPEAKER_01]: because people talked about that changeup had a chance to be a very good pitch.

[00:53:13] [SPEAKER_01]: And it was developing.

[00:53:14] [SPEAKER_01]: It was a work in progress.

[00:53:15] [SPEAKER_01]: But people liked the shape it had and the stuff it had and all that.

[00:53:20] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, when he threw his changeup this year,

[00:53:22] [SPEAKER_01]: the usage of it went up nearly 6%.

[00:53:24] [SPEAKER_01]: So clearly, he was throwing it with more confidence.

[00:53:27] [SPEAKER_01]: And it felt like a little bit more purpose, too.

[00:53:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Because guys hit 186 against his changeup this year.

[00:53:34] [SPEAKER_01]: We talk about all the uptick in the secondaries

[00:53:38] [SPEAKER_01]: and that he had to find something, right?

[00:53:40] [SPEAKER_01]: He just had to find something to neutralize lefties.

[00:53:42] [SPEAKER_01]: He couldn't, same like Bryce, give up a 900 OPS to lefties again.

[00:53:47] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, he didn't.

[00:53:48] [SPEAKER_01]: And I think a part of that was the usage of his changeup.

[00:53:51] [SPEAKER_01]: He used it more.

[00:53:52] [SPEAKER_01]: And it kept hitters more off balance.

[00:53:54] [SPEAKER_01]: Let him work to his fastballs a little bit more.

[00:53:56] [SPEAKER_01]: I think that played a big factor.

[00:53:57] [SPEAKER_02]: So the to-do list I have for Brian Wu next year,

[00:54:00] [SPEAKER_02]: he's not going to throw 200 innings next year.

[00:54:03] [SPEAKER_02]: But he could throw 180.

[00:54:05] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, need a season for Brian Wu of no injuries.

[00:54:09] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, how many starts could he miss?

[00:54:11] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, two?

[00:54:12] [SPEAKER_02]: Give him two?

[00:54:14] [SPEAKER_01]: I'll even let him max out at three or four.

[00:54:18] [SPEAKER_01]: If he throws 160 innings, 170 innings,

[00:54:21] [SPEAKER_01]: that's pretty good.

[00:54:22] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[00:54:23] [SPEAKER_02]: So, like, that would be the thing.

[00:54:25] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, the Mariners, I think, were very encouraged

[00:54:27] [SPEAKER_02]: by his last two months of the season,

[00:54:29] [SPEAKER_02]: which he showed he could pitch in volume

[00:54:32] [SPEAKER_02]: and he could go back to back to back to back to back

[00:54:34] [SPEAKER_02]: without much issue.

[00:54:36] [SPEAKER_02]: So now he's got to do that for a full season.

[00:54:38] [SPEAKER_02]: His checklist last offseason was to not allow,

[00:54:41] [SPEAKER_02]: to stop allowing so many homers to lefties.

[00:54:44] [SPEAKER_02]: He stopped that.

[00:54:45] [SPEAKER_02]: So now the next step is, like,

[00:54:47] [SPEAKER_02]: look at your guy Bryce Miller sitting next to you.

[00:54:51] [SPEAKER_02]: He went out there every single day this year

[00:54:52] [SPEAKER_02]: and delivered.

[00:54:54] [SPEAKER_02]: Now that's you.

[00:54:56] [SPEAKER_02]: So, that'd be it.

[00:54:57] [SPEAKER_02]: Like, just an awesome season for Brian Wu.

[00:55:01] [SPEAKER_02]: Not many complaints.

[00:55:03] [SPEAKER_01]: I'll give one more little nitpicky area

[00:55:06] [SPEAKER_01]: that he could improve on in 2025.

[00:55:09] [SPEAKER_01]: If he doesn't, is it the end of the world?

[00:55:11] [SPEAKER_01]: No, but if you're talking about

[00:55:12] [SPEAKER_01]: how he could actually get even better,

[00:55:14] [SPEAKER_01]: if he could get a little bit more

[00:55:16] [SPEAKER_01]: of his swing and miss back

[00:55:17] [SPEAKER_01]: that he had in 2023,

[00:55:19] [SPEAKER_01]: that'd be great.

[00:55:20] [SPEAKER_01]: That was the one thing.

[00:55:21] [SPEAKER_01]: For as good as he was,

[00:55:22] [SPEAKER_01]: he didn't quite miss all the bats

[00:55:25] [SPEAKER_01]: and strike as many guys out

[00:55:26] [SPEAKER_01]: as he did in 23.

[00:55:27] [SPEAKER_01]: In fact, his K rate went from

[00:55:29] [SPEAKER_01]: the 62nd percentile in 23 as a rookie

[00:55:32] [SPEAKER_01]: to the 36th percentile in 2024.

[00:55:35] [SPEAKER_01]: Again, did it deter him from having a bad year?

[00:55:38] [SPEAKER_01]: No.

[00:55:38] [SPEAKER_01]: He had an awesome year when he was healthy.

[00:55:40] [SPEAKER_01]: But if he can do what he did in 24

[00:55:41] [SPEAKER_01]: and also add back a little bit more swing and miss,

[00:55:45] [SPEAKER_01]: man, you're talking about a high ceiling.

[00:55:46] [SPEAKER_01]: This guy's ceiling is so high as it is.

[00:55:49] [SPEAKER_01]: I cannot wait to see what he does in year three.

[00:55:51] [SPEAKER_01]: I think of every pitcher in the org

[00:55:54] [SPEAKER_01]: and certainly in this rotation,

[00:55:56] [SPEAKER_01]: he's the one I'm most excited

[00:55:58] [SPEAKER_01]: to see what he can do in year three.

[00:56:00] [SPEAKER_01]: And I was fired up to see

[00:56:01] [SPEAKER_01]: what he could do in year two.

[00:56:02] [SPEAKER_01]: I think I was most excited to see

[00:56:04] [SPEAKER_01]: the changes Logan Gilbert

[00:56:05] [SPEAKER_01]: was going to make this year of everybody

[00:56:07] [SPEAKER_01]: just because the hype surrounding

[00:56:09] [SPEAKER_01]: how much he'd improved on

[00:56:10] [SPEAKER_01]: in the offseason was real and he lived up to it.

[00:56:12] [SPEAKER_01]: There's nobody I'm more excited to see

[00:56:13] [SPEAKER_01]: in year three than Brian Wu,

[00:56:14] [SPEAKER_01]: hoping he stays healthy,

[00:56:16] [SPEAKER_01]: hoping he continues to build on some stuff

[00:56:18] [SPEAKER_01]: because I'll put my stamp on this again.

[00:56:21] [SPEAKER_01]: This is a guy that if he stays healthy

[00:56:22] [SPEAKER_01]: can win a Cy Young in his career.

[00:56:24] [SPEAKER_01]: His stuff is that good.

[00:56:26] [SPEAKER_01]: And I can't wait to see what year three looks like.

[00:56:29] [SPEAKER_02]: So would you like the strikeout rate

[00:56:31] [SPEAKER_02]: to be like 25?

[00:56:32] [SPEAKER_02]: I think 25-ish would be good.

[00:56:34] [SPEAKER_02]: But that's going to come along

[00:56:35] [SPEAKER_02]: with more development of his off speed.

[00:56:37] [SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[00:56:38] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:56:38] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's totally fine.

[00:56:40] [SPEAKER_01]: If he's back at about the league average rate

[00:56:42] [SPEAKER_01]: or slightly above league average rate

[00:56:43] [SPEAKER_01]: percentile wise and strikeout rate,

[00:56:45] [SPEAKER_01]: that's awesome.

[00:56:45] [SPEAKER_01]: Especially if he continues to do

[00:56:47] [SPEAKER_01]: everything else that he's doing.

[00:56:48] Right.

[00:56:49] [SPEAKER_01]: Again, one little nitpicky thing.

[00:56:51] [SPEAKER_01]: Ultimately, just stay healthy.

[00:56:52] [SPEAKER_01]: He stays healthy.

[00:56:53] [SPEAKER_01]: He goes every fifth day.

[00:56:55] [SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be pretty good.

[00:56:57] [SPEAKER_01]: Man, as we wrap this show up,

[00:56:59] [SPEAKER_01]: this rotation was awesome.

[00:57:00] [SPEAKER_01]: Surely they made the playoffs.

[00:57:07] [SPEAKER_02]: Oh, what an optimist, Lyle.

[00:57:08] [SPEAKER_02]: Well, yeah, they got an A-plus as a group together.

[00:57:11] [SPEAKER_02]: They should have.

[00:57:13] [SPEAKER_02]: Surely.

[00:57:15] [SPEAKER_02]: I wonder what...

[00:57:15] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, what were the infield and outfield grades again?

[00:57:18] [SPEAKER_01]: Oh.

[00:57:18] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, we might have to comb back through those.

[00:57:21] [SPEAKER_01]: Ooh.

[00:57:21] [SPEAKER_01]: Oh.

[00:57:22] [SPEAKER_01]: You better watch out for the bullpen grades.

[00:57:25] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that'll be our final category of grades,

[00:57:29] [SPEAKER_01]: which we'll do for next Friday's show.

[00:57:31] [SPEAKER_01]: We do have another interview for Wednesday.

[00:57:33] [SPEAKER_01]: It's a very exciting interview.

[00:57:34] [SPEAKER_01]: Very, very awesome interview, by the way.

[00:57:37] [SPEAKER_01]: So hopefully you guys will tune in for that

[00:57:39] [SPEAKER_01]: because we really had a blast recording it

[00:57:41] [SPEAKER_01]: and talking to our interviewee when we talk to them.

[00:57:44] [SPEAKER_01]: So that'll be Wednesday.

[00:57:45] [SPEAKER_01]: Final position group grade will be Friday.

[00:57:47] [SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, starting pitchers get a very, very high grade

[00:57:50] [SPEAKER_01]: as they deservingly should.

[00:57:52] [SPEAKER_01]: And I can't wait to see what they...

[00:57:53] [SPEAKER_02]: They blew expectations out of the water this year.

[00:57:56] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:57:56] [SPEAKER_01]: As good as they were in 23,

[00:57:58] [SPEAKER_01]: they took another step forward in 24.

[00:58:01] [SPEAKER_01]: Let's see what they do in 25

[00:58:03] [SPEAKER_01]: because can it get better?

[00:58:04] [SPEAKER_01]: Be amazing if it did.

[00:58:06] [SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to believe that it could,

[00:58:07] [SPEAKER_01]: but with this rotation, with those five,

[00:58:10] [SPEAKER_01]: you just never know.

[00:58:12] [SPEAKER_01]: All right.

[00:58:12] [SPEAKER_01]: That'll just about wrap up this edition

[00:58:14] [SPEAKER_01]: of the Marine Layer Podcast.

[00:58:15] [SPEAKER_01]: You guys know the drill.

[00:58:16] [SPEAKER_01]: You guys want to listen to the full-form podcast.

[00:58:18] [SPEAKER_01]: You can do so wherever you get your audio pods.

[00:58:21] [SPEAKER_01]: Make sure to download.

[00:58:21] [SPEAKER_01]: Make sure to rate and review five stars.

[00:58:23] [SPEAKER_01]: You're doing us a big, big favor

[00:58:25] [SPEAKER_01]: and helping us out if you do.

[00:58:26] [SPEAKER_01]: Make sure to like, comment, subscribe on YouTube,

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[00:58:32] [SPEAKER_01]: and YouTube shorts at MarineLayerPod.

[00:58:35] [SPEAKER_01]: That's TJ.

[00:58:36] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Lyle.

[00:58:37] [SPEAKER_01]: As always, we thank you guys for tuning in.

[00:58:38] [SPEAKER_01]: Talk to you soon.