Episode 178: The Mariners Have A Chance At Juan Soto? + Grading The 2024 Mariners Bullpen

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[00:00:55] Welcome to Episode number 178 of the Marine Layer Podcast.

[00:00:59] It's our Reliever Grades Episode.

[00:01:01] We'll go through the Mariners Bullpen and give each reliever a grade.

[00:01:04] We'll also wrap up what was left of the World Series and get you ready for the offseason.

[00:01:09] This show is brought to you by our friends over at Pagatch's Pub 85.

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[00:02:25] And we welcome you to this episode of the MarineLayer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording on Thursday evening, October 31st.

[00:02:35] The World Series has wrapped up.

[00:02:38] There's some quiet in the air in the off season.

[00:02:41] And the hot stove, Lyle, is upon us.

[00:02:46] Yes, it is.

[00:02:47] And you know what that means?

[00:02:50] Kyle Tucker season's back, baby!

[00:02:52] Woo!

[00:02:53] You thought we were done?

[00:02:55] Oh, we ain't done.

[00:02:56] Second the World Series ended, we're right back into the ring of fire.

[00:03:00] He's a mariner this off season.

[00:03:03] Woo!

[00:03:05] You know what I was doing today?

[00:03:07] I was training today.

[00:03:08] I was training for our hike.

[00:03:10] Were you?

[00:03:11] Good!

[00:03:12] Yeah, 30 minutes on the stair stepper today.

[00:03:14] And you know, the only thought that was on my mind the entire time up there, it was KT, KT, KT, KT, KT, every step.

[00:03:25] KT, KT, KT, KT.

[00:03:28] I could see the top of the mountain.

[00:03:29] And it seemed clear as day.

[00:03:32] With Jerry DePoto standing up there at the top and it's like, Marine Layer Podcast, I'm so glad we could get this done.

[00:03:40] What a moment.

[00:03:42] Listen, if you're an Astros fan and you're listening to this, it's time for you to accept reality.

[00:03:49] Accept it.

[00:03:50] Get over it.

[00:03:51] Move on.

[00:03:52] You can drive them to the airport for the first flight out to Seattle.

[00:03:55] It's going to be really hard for Astros fans to dispute it as well in case you've been living under a rock and somehow still don't follow us on social media.

[00:04:03] You would have known that the Rizzer himself had Kyle Tucker on his Mariners offseason to do list.

[00:04:09] If the Rizzer thinks the Mariners should go after Kyle Tucker, oh, well, it's happening.

[00:04:14] And then this very account gave it a 10 out of 10.

[00:04:17] It's kind of hard to dispute.

[00:04:19] What the Rizzer says is never wrong.

[00:04:22] He can't lose.

[00:04:22] And if he says Kyle Tucker's a Mariner, Kyle Tucker's a Mariner.

[00:04:27] Therefore, here we are.

[00:04:29] Now, I don't know what date it's going to happen yet, but we know it's happening.

[00:04:33] What are our sources?

[00:04:34] Sources?

[00:04:36] Trust me, bro.

[00:04:39] Did the Rizzer consult with Big Justice and AJ, do you think?

[00:04:42] Or did he come to that himself?

[00:04:45] AJ and Big Justice are Yankee fans.

[00:04:47] Honestly, they'd probably be fine with Kyle Tucker moving to Seattle.

[00:04:50] Wouldn't be an Astro anymore.

[00:04:52] Yeah.

[00:04:53] Outside of the Red Sox, it's the Astros.

[00:04:56] So, yeah, we're glad we got that cleared up in case you guys thought we forgot.

[00:05:00] Oh, no, we didn't.

[00:05:01] No.

[00:05:02] We did not.

[00:05:03] Until this man inks a 10 year extension somewhere else, he's a future Mariner.

[00:05:07] Mm-hmm.

[00:05:08] The only place he's inking a 10 year extension is Seattle.

[00:05:11] Correct.

[00:05:12] So, yeah.

[00:05:14] The only reason we took a couple months off is there was actually no possible way for the Mariners to trade for him after the deadline.

[00:05:20] And we talked about that.

[00:05:21] And the deadline was over.

[00:05:23] It's like, well, we're going to be in a holding pattern for a bit.

[00:05:25] Now, with the offseason officially among us, at any point, you could check your phone and get that pass the notification that he'll be in Seattle.

[00:05:33] And you, all our listeners, need to book your calendars and save the date to join us on the hike.

[00:05:41] Speaking of acquisitions in the offseason, on a scale of one to 10, how disappointed do you think Jerry DiPoto was that he didn't fire off the first trade of the offseason?

[00:05:52] We tweeted it earlier today.

[00:05:53] He was probably feeling like Frank the Tank.

[00:05:55] He wasn't first.

[00:05:57] He's always first.

[00:06:00] It's disappointing.

[00:06:01] Has he lost his fastball?

[00:06:03] Hmm.

[00:06:04] If he goes and trades for K-Tuck tomorrow, I'll say no.

[00:06:10] Yeah, that's a fair point.

[00:06:13] And, of course, Dogget included the one team he's never traded with.

[00:06:17] The Angels.

[00:06:19] Right.

[00:06:19] Mm-hmm.

[00:06:20] That was a weird trade.

[00:06:21] I don't really know what the Angels are doing.

[00:06:23] We don't have to spend too much time on this, but why they wanted Jorge Soler and they have an awful pitching staff and they gave up a starting pitcher.

[00:06:30] Not that Griffin Canning's been all that great, but that was a weird deal.

[00:06:34] Well, you're asking why the Angels made a trade that doesn't really fit their roster.

[00:06:40] Yeah.

[00:06:41] Play that sentence back for yourself.

[00:06:43] Why did the Angels do something that doesn't make that much sense?

[00:06:47] Does it start to make sense now?

[00:06:50] Artie will be Artie.

[00:06:53] Well, yeah, he did approve that trade and they will win exactly zero more games because of Jorge Soler.

[00:07:00] But I guess Jorge Soler gets a little bit more beach time now.

[00:07:04] Well, he's probably happy.

[00:07:06] Gets paid the same amount.

[00:07:08] A little warmer.

[00:07:08] Don't you think he'd rather be on a winning team like the Braves?

[00:07:11] Well, he's won a World Series.

[00:07:13] He's won a World Series MVP.

[00:07:15] Some guys want five, but some some players are definitely cool with just one.

[00:07:20] I guess now I'd be interested to hear his thoughts by July when he's played almost half of half a season with the Angels and see how he feels.

[00:07:29] But yeah, that's that's totally fair.

[00:07:32] Maybe him and Anthony Rendon can spend more time golfing.

[00:07:36] A lot of golf time on the Angels, dog.

[00:07:38] I mean, Anthony Rendon spends his time doing anything but playing baseball.

[00:07:43] Yeah.

[00:07:44] Well, allegedly, he's too hurt to play baseball, but I'd assume he's not too hurt to golf usually or usually guys are healthy enough to golf, I would say.

[00:07:53] Or try to fight or try to fight his fans.

[00:07:55] Yeah.

[00:07:56] Oh, yeah.

[00:07:57] I don't know if Jorge Soler is going to swing on a fan.

[00:07:59] Maybe maybe just those Yankee fans down in the corner.

[00:08:01] I think that's it.

[00:08:02] Those would be the only ones.

[00:08:04] Yeah.

[00:08:04] Do you think speaking of those Yankee fans if that like let's let's play an example.

[00:08:08] That was Jorge Soler over there.

[00:08:09] Would he have just beat the crap out of him?

[00:08:12] He's like he's bigger than Mookie is.

[00:08:15] But he's not really known for having a temper, right?

[00:08:17] So, you know, it's cool.

[00:08:19] I don't think you need a temper to react strongly when someone tries to like twist your wrist in the stands.

[00:08:27] Here's a better question.

[00:08:29] What would have happened if it was Niger Morgan playing right field?

[00:08:35] That's a good question.

[00:08:36] I think you're more suited to answer this question.

[00:08:38] Oh, he would have jumped into the stands and actually started a fight in the middle of the World Series with those fans.

[00:08:43] He would have not held back in any way, shape or form.

[00:08:46] Baseball shot.

[00:08:47] Baseball shining moment of the last 20 years.

[00:08:52] Niger Morgan.

[00:08:53] No, I mean a brawl in the stands with a player and two fans.

[00:08:58] I miss Niger Morgan.

[00:08:59] That guy was insane.

[00:09:00] I still I've talked about this on Twitter before every so often.

[00:09:04] I'll just go down the rabbit hole and watch Niger Morgan highlights because I think the guy was so hilarious and caused so many ridiculous fights over his career that I just can't help it.

[00:09:15] That's fair.

[00:09:18] Yeah, that's fair.

[00:09:19] Yeah, that's fair.

[00:09:45] I think that's fair.

[00:09:48] That's fair.

[00:09:48] That's fair.

[00:09:49] That's fair.

[00:09:49] That's fair.

[00:09:49] Yeah, really, really utterly disappointing.

[00:09:53] How does Aaron Judge drop a ball now?

[00:09:56] You know, I was, you know, I was against this whole boo Aaron Judge thing until he dropped that ball in center field.

[00:10:04] Now you're okay.

[00:10:05] Booing him.

[00:10:06] Yes, because of that, because you know what?

[00:10:08] I could have made that play.

[00:10:11] I think back to our I am softball days.

[00:10:14] Hey, I was a good right fielder.

[00:10:16] And I was one of only, how many of us hit home runs, Lyle?

[00:10:21] It's too strong to keep me out of the lineup.

[00:10:23] Uh-huh.

[00:10:25] Didn't your home run come as a result of the ball going through the right fielder's legs or something like that?

[00:10:30] I don't think so.

[00:10:31] I don't think anyone touched it.

[00:10:33] It wasn't over.

[00:10:33] I think it split a gap.

[00:10:35] I think that's what happened.

[00:10:36] Mm-hmm.

[00:10:37] Well, there you go.

[00:10:38] I don't know if I'd still boo Aaron Judge.

[00:10:40] I get why fans are mad.

[00:10:41] How the hell does Garrett Cole not cover that bag?

[00:10:45] Brain fart?

[00:10:46] How does Anthony Volpe throw the ball into the dirt at third?

[00:10:50] The whole inning was ridiculous.

[00:10:51] Yeah, I would have liked to see seven games just because it was such an iconic series with two historic teams.

[00:10:56] And a lot of, I mean, those games were really good.

[00:10:58] Even though the Dodgers won four to one.

[00:11:00] Game one was really good.

[00:11:01] The end of game two was really good.

[00:11:02] Obviously, game five was really good.

[00:11:04] I would have loved to see six and seven.

[00:11:06] See what other theatrics we could have potentially gotten.

[00:11:08] So, yeah.

[00:11:09] And that way, I wish it kept going.

[00:11:11] But, listen.

[00:11:12] In terms of narratives the two of us have to push and hear on this podcast narratives to push.

[00:11:16] It didn't really matter who won.

[00:11:18] Because the narrative we wanted, we got with that World Series.

[00:11:21] Scare money don't make no money.

[00:11:22] That was your World Series.

[00:11:24] Couple of $300 million payrolls.

[00:11:25] And the big money players came to play.

[00:11:30] So, can't complain too much with that.

[00:11:32] And even Garrett Cole, the big money pitcher of the whole series emptied the tank.

[00:11:37] Went into the seventh inning.

[00:11:39] No earned runs.

[00:11:40] Though the five runs on his tab.

[00:11:42] Like, that was also money well spent on the mound too.

[00:11:46] So, yeah.

[00:11:47] I hope everyone was watching.

[00:11:49] Especially people up here in the Northwest.

[00:11:51] Let's hope the ratings were good in the Pacific Northwest.

[00:11:54] So, certain people were watching that World Series and seeing the outcome of it.

[00:11:59] Because, you know, I think it's very beneficial to see things that way.

[00:12:05] But, congrats to the Dodgers.

[00:12:07] As it was put, they're out of the Mickey Mouse Clubhouse.

[00:12:10] Which is fantastic to see.

[00:12:13] Spend money and you're out of the Mickey Mouse Clubhouse.

[00:12:17] So, two things.

[00:12:18] To your Mickey Mouse point.

[00:12:19] You could tell it bothered some of those Dodger guys.

[00:12:22] Listening to some of those interviews after the World Series.

[00:12:25] Walker Bueller talked about it.

[00:12:26] A couple other guys talked about it.

[00:12:28] About, yeah, now we don't have the 2020 cloud over our heads anymore.

[00:12:31] And all that stuff.

[00:12:32] You could tell.

[00:12:33] Even though, obviously, it goes down in the record books as a World Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2020.

[00:12:39] You could tell some players were bothered by that.

[00:12:42] And clearly, the narratives around it got to them.

[00:12:45] Because they were right there talking about it after that World Series.

[00:12:49] Like, I'm sorry guys, but were any of us wrong in crowning that narrative?

[00:12:54] I don't think so.

[00:12:55] They played all neutral site games in a 60 game season.

[00:12:58] Wow, that's like us claiming the 2018 Mariners as World Series champions.

[00:13:03] Am I right?

[00:13:05] Imagine if the 2018 season had ended in early June.

[00:13:09] We would have been thriving.

[00:13:10] Would have been great.

[00:13:11] We would be significantly less negative here today.

[00:13:15] Yeah, we'd be talking about a World Series under the Mariners' belts.

[00:13:18] And being in one.

[00:13:19] I forgot.

[00:13:19] Okay.

[00:13:20] So, to your point about you hope the ratings were good in the Northwest.

[00:13:24] I just...

[00:13:25] You just prompted this thought for me.

[00:13:29] Because...

[00:13:30] I have a story to tell.

[00:13:32] Hmm.

[00:13:33] So, my mom is not the biggest baseball fan in the world.

[00:13:38] Certainly not like the other three people in our household.

[00:13:41] My brother, my dad, and I.

[00:13:44] But she's watched so many games over the years that she knows enough about it.

[00:13:48] She knows all the big name players.

[00:13:49] We watch so much baseball that she's around it, obviously.

[00:13:55] And she knows all about how good the Dodgers are and had the potential to be this year.

[00:14:01] And as a result, with the Dodgers in the playoffs, she found herself watching a lot of Dodgers games.

[00:14:07] Because she was interested to see what Shohei would do.

[00:14:10] She was interested to see what Mookie would do.

[00:14:12] The whole Yamamoto story about this guy that comes over from Japan and has a chance to be just an absolute ace for 12 years.

[00:14:20] She was interested in all these storylines.

[00:14:22] And she actually found herself watching all these games and invested.

[00:14:25] You know what she says to me as we're about halfway through the playoffs?

[00:14:29] Because she's really enjoying this stuff.

[00:14:31] She says, I think I'm becoming a Dodgers fan.

[00:14:36] She says, I think I'm becoming a Dodgers fan.

[00:14:39] The same person that's been around Mariners baseball almost every day of her life as we grew up,

[00:14:46] considering how much my brother and I watch and bitch and scream and curse throughout the years watching this team and watching these games.

[00:14:54] The other thing she said to me was, wow, this has been a real eye-opener.

[00:15:00] Not all teams are like the Mariners.

[00:15:02] She's sitting there watching the Dodgers thinking, this is a really fun team.

[00:15:07] These guys are really good.

[00:15:09] And that, folks, is what happens when you get a casual fan interested in an elite baseball team.

[00:15:16] You put good players on the field and you don't have to resort to things like promotional nights and fireworks and whatever else to get the casuals out to the park.

[00:15:28] You can do some of that, but you'll have a bigger crowd on average no matter what if you have superstars on the field.

[00:15:35] Again, Dodgers aren't on my mom's radar most of the time.

[00:15:39] Even the years they were good in the past, they weren't on a radar, but you have Shohei, you have Mookie, you have Freddie, you have Yamamoto, you have all these guys.

[00:15:50] And it gets casual fans interested.

[00:15:53] Why do you think the ratings were up so high in this World Series?

[00:15:56] As much as Corbin Carroll is loved around Seattle, there was Corbin Carroll and the Diamondbacks versus...

[00:16:05] Hmm, what's a good example?

[00:16:07] The Brewers.

[00:16:08] Yeah.

[00:16:09] Versus Willie Adamas, Christian Yelich, well, he's hurt, and the Brewers in the World Series.

[00:16:15] That going to draw ratings?

[00:16:17] Not really.

[00:16:18] Nope.

[00:16:19] But this one did.

[00:16:20] And the market size has something to do with it.

[00:16:22] But the point is this.

[00:16:23] You put superstars on the field that people will go out of their way to see.

[00:16:28] This is what happens.

[00:16:30] Star power draws.

[00:16:32] And it's the markets.

[00:16:34] It's the spending.

[00:16:35] It can bring up a whole philosophical conversation around the Mariners.

[00:16:39] Do they have enough stars?

[00:16:41] What qualifies as a star?

[00:16:42] Etc.

[00:16:43] Etc.

[00:16:43] Like, we, you know, acknowledge the Mariners have a bunch of good players.

[00:16:46] But it's like the star level to capture casual fans.

[00:16:51] Like, think about...

[00:16:52] Like, let me draw this comparison here.

[00:16:55] Like, think about the Mariners' 2022 season in this sense, Lyle.

[00:16:58] Do you think they captured the hearts of some casual fans?

[00:17:00] I think so, in that season.

[00:17:03] The last two seasons, not quite as much.

[00:17:06] But 2022, when you're getting the attention of breaking a playoff span with this shiny new toy of Julio Rodriguez, like, I think is a very real thing.

[00:17:15] But you only get that kind of shine one time with a rookie.

[00:17:20] So, the rookie has to take the next steps forward to, you know, deliver.

[00:17:28] And it would help if he's put on the big stage, the national stage, the playoff stage more often.

[00:17:35] Unfortunately, the Mariners haven't been good enough the last couple of years to do that.

[00:17:40] So, it detracts from the star power of the roster and is also just less appealing to the casual fan.

[00:17:47] It's no mystery that regular season baseball is...

[00:17:52] For, I'd say, casual, like, baseball fans to appeal nationally.

[00:17:55] Like, you can get casual Seattle fans to love the Mariners in season, Lyle.

[00:18:01] But to, like, really grow the Mariners' presence as well and make an appealing product, you've got to appeal nationally.

[00:18:08] And that happens in the playoffs.

[00:18:11] The Mariners have been there once in 23 years.

[00:18:17] So, that's my philosophical analysis.

[00:18:21] Yeah.

[00:18:21] Go get stars on your team.

[00:18:23] Fans are going to show up.

[00:18:24] It's that simple.

[00:18:25] The story about my mom being interested in the Dodgers is just one very small example of a broader picture here.

[00:18:32] Go get stars on the team and people will show up no matter what.

[00:18:35] But, assuming that those stars equate to wins, which it should.

[00:18:39] There's one certain star who actually said the Mariners are an opportunity for him this offseason.

[00:18:46] We'll tell you about that here in a second.

[00:18:47] But first, just want to let you guys know that we hope 2025 is an exciting year for the Mariners, just as it should be for your business.

[00:18:55] Breaking News, the Marine Layer Podcast, is looking for sponsors for the 2025 season.

[00:18:59] And if you want to grow your business through audio, video or digital platforms, come grow it with us.

[00:19:05] You can reach out to us via email, marinelayerpod at gmail.com.

[00:19:09] That's marinelayerpod at gmail.com.

[00:19:12] Or send us a DM on social media.

[00:19:14] We would love to hear from you.

[00:19:16] And we'd be happy to work with you guys in the 2025 season.

[00:19:20] We'd love to hear from you guys in the 20th century.

[00:19:50] Shopify and co.

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[00:20:15] But a star in the World Series proclaimed that he is on the market for all 30 teams.

[00:20:22] Yes, that's what Juan Soto said after the World Series was over.

[00:20:26] All 30 teams, Lyle, are available.

[00:20:29] If the Mariners, A's, and Rockies offer $750 million, $725 million, and $700 million,

[00:20:37] those would be Juan Soto's final three teams.

[00:20:41] Those teams should do that.

[00:20:42] I'm going to be real.

[00:20:43] That would be objectively hilarious.

[00:20:46] And you're right.

[00:20:47] They should absolutely do that.

[00:20:49] We're spreading the love around market-wise.

[00:20:51] That would be great.

[00:20:53] Could you imagine the narratives around that?

[00:20:56] Yankees about out.

[00:20:57] Dodgers about out.

[00:20:58] Mets about out.

[00:20:59] It's down to the Mariners, A's, and Rockies for Juan Soto.

[00:21:04] Be pretty good.

[00:21:05] That would be pretty good.

[00:21:07] Juan Soto takes one look at that Sacramento ballpark and is like,

[00:21:12] $725 million, though?

[00:21:15] I'll be okay.

[00:21:16] It's like, I'll make that work.

[00:21:19] But you suggested this wonderful idea today.

[00:21:22] Would you like to bring it to the podcast?

[00:21:24] It would be great.

[00:21:25] Yeah.

[00:21:26] About how the Mariners should approach this whole thing, if that's what you mean?

[00:21:30] Yeah.

[00:21:30] Yeah.

[00:21:30] Yes, please.

[00:21:31] Well, first off,

[00:21:32] they now have a golden opportunity, after Juan Soto putting out the comments he put out,

[00:21:38] to totally retract their ridiculous statements from a month ago about, what do we say about

[00:21:43] signing free agents?

[00:21:45] Not a smart strategy.

[00:21:46] Not a smart strategy.

[00:21:48] Well, you know what would be a smart strategy?

[00:21:51] Walk back those thoughts.

[00:21:53] Walk back those quotes.

[00:21:54] Walk back those quotes.

[00:21:55] And go after Juan Soto.

[00:21:57] Now, the number one thing that you could win people over with, obviously, is if you win

[00:22:01] the bidding war, you win the Juan Soto sweepstakes, and you sign the guy.

[00:22:04] Which, by the way, if it's up to me, I will say it loud and clear right here on this podcast.

[00:22:11] If it's up to me, I'm guessing TJ isn't too far off.

[00:22:14] I would give him $1 billion American dollars right now.

[00:22:19] This second, I would give him a billion dollars.

[00:22:21] And I am not exaggerating.

[00:22:25] Anyway, we know the Mariners aren't going to do that.

[00:22:28] So if I'm the Mariners, here's what I do.

[00:22:31] And we've talked to some other people in the Mariners content community that have thrown this

[00:22:34] idea out there.

[00:22:36] So credit to them.

[00:22:37] We were not the first people to think of this idea.

[00:22:39] Once we heard it, especially from some other people in the Mariners community, we were like,

[00:22:43] yeah, this is a good idea.

[00:22:44] This is what they should do.

[00:22:46] We're given a free PR class here.

[00:22:48] We need a whiteboard to just draw all the circles like this can equal this.

[00:22:53] This will get you here.

[00:22:54] I wish we had a whiteboard just to draw it all out.

[00:22:57] But if you're the Mariners, you need to publicly make an offer for Juan Soto.

[00:23:04] You have endured too much terrible PR over the last two years.

[00:23:08] And you have led fans to now have the assumption, not just believe, but flat out assumption.

[00:23:13] This is the majority thought throughout fans these days.

[00:23:17] Mariners just aren't going to do anything.

[00:23:18] They're not even going to try, especially those quotes that came out a month ago.

[00:23:21] They said that they're not going to try.

[00:23:23] Walk that back and do this.

[00:23:26] Publicly make an offer, not a $100 million offer, not a $110 million offer.

[00:23:31] Get it in the ballpark, somewhere from $450 to $500 million.

[00:23:36] That's where your ballpark offer should be.

[00:23:38] You don't even have to have the money.

[00:23:40] Now we know they have that money.

[00:23:41] We just are under the assumption they won't spend it.

[00:23:45] But even if they don't feel comfortable spending that type of money, put it out there that you're willing to spend it.

[00:23:51] Because guess what happens if you do that?

[00:23:54] You could win a lot of fans over that way.

[00:23:57] If you tell fans and the story gets out there, hey, the Mariners offer Juan Soto $475 million over 12 years.

[00:24:05] But Juan Soto said, no, there's other teams offering more.

[00:24:08] I don't want to play on the West Coast.

[00:24:10] I don't want to play in that ballpark because it's not hitter friendly.

[00:24:12] I'd rather stay in New York.

[00:24:14] All right.

[00:24:15] The Mariners then can walk away with their head held high and say, we genuinely tried.

[00:24:21] We wanted him.

[00:24:22] We just couldn't go to the $600 plus million, $650 million that one of the New York teams might offer.

[00:24:29] That's what they should do.

[00:24:30] Because a lot of people would probably turn their heads and say, okay, I appreciate you guys giving this thing an effort.

[00:24:36] But you have to give the effort.

[00:24:38] You can't come out on the first day of the offseason and say, signing Juan Soto is not a smart strategy.

[00:24:43] Publicly make the offer because he's giving you the opportunity.

[00:24:47] The check could bounce.

[00:24:50] Doesn't even matter because he's not going to touch it.

[00:24:52] Scott Boris and him aren't even going to open the envelope.

[00:24:56] But you take that envelope with your fake check, with fake money.

[00:25:00] You walk into Jeff Passan's office and you say, Jeff, can you please tweet this?

[00:25:06] Thank you.

[00:25:07] You can list out some offer details.

[00:25:10] You can list these cool, ridiculous incentives, Lyle, that we've suggested that they should offer Juan Soto.

[00:25:16] Like proceeds at the ballpark.

[00:25:18] Make him some merch.

[00:25:20] Buy him a boat.

[00:25:21] Do something.

[00:25:23] Get creative with the contract.

[00:25:25] Well, he gets box yard proceeds, remember?

[00:25:27] Right.

[00:25:28] Exactly.

[00:25:28] He gets a cut of it.

[00:25:30] 5% off all beer.

[00:25:31] We'll raise the price of beer for Juan Soto.

[00:25:34] And Juan says, I appreciate that.

[00:25:37] But I'll pass.

[00:25:38] And then people around here realize, wow, look at the lengths the Mariners were willing to go for Juan Soto.

[00:25:44] Maybe they do care.

[00:25:46] Maybe they do.

[00:25:48] Even if it was all an empty promise.

[00:25:50] Seems like a slam dunk.

[00:25:53] But, no, it's not happening, unfortunately.

[00:25:59] Do you want to pool some money together, Lyle?

[00:26:01] We can make our own pitch to Juan Soto.

[00:26:03] How much do you have?

[00:26:05] I have $3.

[00:26:07] Patrick Star.

[00:26:11] Funny enough, that might not be far off from what the Mariners offer, $3.

[00:26:14] Do you know what's going to be a really bad look?

[00:26:16] Is if, like, a bad organization offers, like, makes a public $400 million offer.

[00:26:22] Then it's going to look really bad.

[00:26:24] Like, let's say somehow the Marlins do that.

[00:26:28] Like, let's say that.

[00:26:30] What if the Marlins offer Juan Soto, like, $14 for $400?

[00:26:34] Obviously, he's going to turn that down.

[00:26:36] He's not going to play in Miami.

[00:26:40] But the Marlins could make an offer like that.

[00:26:43] It's like, come on, guys.

[00:26:46] Just make something up.

[00:26:47] Please make something up for the sake of PR.

[00:26:50] And then go spend probably the 20% of that money you actually have and go sign Christian Walker.

[00:26:55] Thank you.

[00:26:56] Yeah, I'm down for that.

[00:26:58] If you're not going to be serious about winning, like, if you're going to be an unserious org about signing elite players

[00:27:05] and really investing in a winning roster, the least you could do is be good from a PR standpoint.

[00:27:14] At least know the right things to say.

[00:27:16] That thing that came out a month ago in the Seattle Times, what we've been parading on this podcast since,

[00:27:21] hashtag not a smart strategy.

[00:27:24] You can't do that.

[00:27:25] You cannot do that.

[00:27:26] It's such a ridiculous thing to say.

[00:27:29] Because, again, Juan Soto is literally out there saying, I'm interested in talking with all 30 teams.

[00:27:34] I'm open to all 30 teams.

[00:27:36] You are one of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball.

[00:27:38] And, oh, by the way, your World Series odds for 2025, the early ones that came out, are in the top 10 of the league.

[00:27:46] So, there's a lot of teams that you actually have better odds than to sign Juan Soto.

[00:27:51] DraftKings has you tied for eighth.

[00:27:52] That came out today, too.

[00:27:54] We know it's probably not going to happen.

[00:27:57] But he said he's interested in 30 teams.

[00:28:00] Guess what?

[00:28:01] You're probably not even one of the bottom 10 teams in the league he'd be disinterested in.

[00:28:06] Maybe not even in the bottom half.

[00:28:08] You have a leg up on people, especially with that rotation.

[00:28:11] Are you sure?

[00:28:13] Well, Scott Boris...

[00:28:15] Let's remember who his agent is.

[00:28:17] The same agent who kept Marcus Simeon away from Seattle because he had a bone to pick with the organization.

[00:28:24] Yeah, so that part maybe.

[00:28:26] But if you're Scott Boris, well, he just...

[00:28:29] They don't care.

[00:28:30] Scott Boris just wants his client to get paid.

[00:28:32] And Scott Boris also knows they're not going to offer up the money.

[00:28:36] Right.

[00:28:37] So...

[00:28:37] I mean, that might be bottom five.

[00:28:38] Okay, fine. Let me rephrase.

[00:28:41] You have, toward the top half of the league, in terms of a sales pitch to Juan Soto, whether that's in the top half of Scott Boris' preferences,

[00:28:50] you're in the top half of the league, maybe in the top 10 to 12, of a legitimate sales pitch to give to this guy,

[00:28:55] saying we are in a contention window, we can win, the team becomes completed with somebody like you.

[00:29:01] But...

[00:29:03] Yeah.

[00:29:04] They have already made this absurd statement a month ago that they're now going to either have to walk back or just dig their grave in.

[00:29:14] Sad.

[00:29:15] Yeah, it is sad.

[00:29:17] Sad.

[00:29:17] That's the only words I have to describe that.

[00:29:21] Mm-hmm.

[00:29:21] But it is nice that the hot stove is underway.

[00:29:24] Hopefully, again, Jerry can just get this thing rolling.

[00:29:27] Whether or not he has money to spend or not, or he chooses to spend it or not, it's transaction season.

[00:29:33] And whether or not...

[00:29:34] He's not first, but he better not fall to, like, 10th.

[00:29:37] If there are 10 trades or transactions that go through, it's not Jerry DiPoto.

[00:29:42] So, I'm going to be pretty disappointed.

[00:29:47] So, buckle up, Jerry.

[00:29:50] Okay.

[00:29:50] But a transaction, before we transition, last thing, a transaction could mean they sign a reliever off waivers.

[00:29:56] Okay.

[00:29:57] That works out great for the Mariners.

[00:29:59] It does.

[00:30:00] Most of what we're about to talk about are waiver claims.

[00:30:02] Yeah.

[00:30:03] Or it could be some very small trade.

[00:30:05] Are you okay with that?

[00:30:08] Again, we're talking about the bullpen.

[00:30:10] It's worked out great.

[00:30:12] Aside for, you know, a handful of innings this year that cost the Mariners some wins and probably a playoff spot down the stretch.

[00:30:19] But, sure.

[00:30:22] It's better than nothing.

[00:30:23] It's better than doing...

[00:30:25] Absolutely not.

[00:30:25] It's better than being the Rockies.

[00:30:28] Yeah, I don't know what that franchise...

[00:30:29] Rockies don't do anything.

[00:30:31] No.

[00:30:31] They're not interesting or active.

[00:30:34] So...

[00:30:35] No, they're not.

[00:30:36] Yeah.

[00:30:37] Okay.

[00:30:39] Let's go to...

[00:30:40] Our reliever grades.

[00:30:42] And let's start off with the guy who was almost a throw-in in a trade a mere four years ago.

[00:30:47] And that's Andres Munoz.

[00:30:49] Leading this Mariners bullpen.

[00:30:51] What grade do you give Andres Munoz for this 2024 season?

[00:30:56] First letter of his name.

[00:30:58] Andres gets an A.

[00:30:59] You were an all-star.

[00:31:00] Your ERA was just over two.

[00:31:02] You had good underlying stats.

[00:31:04] Your savant page was off the charts aside from the walks.

[00:31:07] This guy is one of the game's stud relievers.

[00:31:12] It's a statement we all know.

[00:31:14] It's not some hot take.

[00:31:15] But it's facts.

[00:31:16] He is one of the best relievers in the game of baseball.

[00:31:19] Are there areas for him to improve?

[00:31:20] Sure.

[00:31:21] There's areas for plenty of relievers to improve.

[00:31:23] Does he get an A, at least in my book, for the seasoning head?

[00:31:26] Yeah.

[00:31:28] I don't know if it needs to be said again, but I'll just say it.

[00:31:31] Most valuable reliever in the bullpen.

[00:31:33] One of the five most valuable in baseball.

[00:31:36] Just based on, especially this year, the injuries and the personnel around him and what he was asked to do is remarkable.

[00:31:44] And he's a different pitcher, really, every year.

[00:31:48] This year, he was able to regain a little bit more of his slider effectiveness after mostly losing it last year and it being one of the best pitches in baseball in his first full Mariners season in 2022.

[00:32:01] Which, man, I still miss that 2022 season.

[00:32:05] That was truly amazing.

[00:32:07] But he was fantastic.

[00:32:12] His stuff, thinking about it.

[00:32:14] Like, let me frame it this way for Andres Munoz.

[00:32:19] You know his stuff has never moved more in his career than it did this year.

[00:32:24] Relative to the league average, his stuff moved more than it ever has.

[00:32:30] That's, for a guy as nasty as him, that's pretty crazy.

[00:32:32] It also kind of makes sense, Lyle, how he walks.

[00:32:35] 11.2% of his batters now.

[00:32:38] Mm-hmm.

[00:32:39] And that is the one thing that if he could improve upon that a little bit, get back to where he was in 2022, he would go from being one of the game's best relievers to potentially the best one.

[00:32:52] He would go from being one of the guys.

[00:32:53] Sitting right next to Emmanuel Classe or a healthy Felix Bautista or Mason Miller.

[00:32:59] He'd be right there.

[00:33:00] He's probably just a step below some of those guys right now.

[00:33:04] He stops walking, guys.

[00:33:06] He's right there.

[00:33:07] There could be an argument for him to be right at number one if he stopped walking, guys.

[00:33:11] There's a pretty big gap between his two wars.

[00:33:13] His B war was significantly higher than his F war.

[00:33:16] And if you look at some of the Fangraph's expected numbers, it was the, as they would judge it, like FIP, XFIP, XERA, worst year of his career.

[00:33:27] Which, if your expected era is 2.92 and that's the worst year of your career, you're doing okay.

[00:33:35] But that's how Fangraph's views it.

[00:33:38] But again, it kind of makes sense because he was allowing more free bases.

[00:33:44] That definitely didn't help.

[00:33:46] I don't think his walk rate can go up anymore.

[00:33:48] If it goes up anymore, it's going to eat into his effectiveness.

[00:33:53] Because his effectiveness this year was very good.

[00:33:54] But the more that walk rate goes up, the less efficient he can be.

[00:33:59] And especially as much as they leaned on him this year with his four or five-out saves, which he pitched by far the most in those scenarios as he did in any season of his career.

[00:34:11] He hadn't recorded a five-out save before the season.

[00:34:14] He had three this year.

[00:34:16] If he's going to do that, the walks are going to have to go down.

[00:34:21] And as you and I talked about, his 2022 season, his walks were fantastic.

[00:34:26] The last two years since introducing that sinker, his stuff's been a little erratic at times.

[00:34:33] But that sinker has helped him.

[00:34:35] It does.

[00:34:36] It has.

[00:34:36] Absolutely.

[00:34:36] His four-seam fastball, for as hard as he throws it, it's not his most effective pitch in terms of just results, the way hitters can barrel it up.

[00:34:45] That two-seamer really helps him.

[00:34:47] Him being a three-pitch closer really helps him.

[00:34:50] Speaking of his arsenal, it wasn't quite 2022, but his slider started to kind of climb back closer to that mark and where it was in 22.

[00:34:59] We talked about it was just down last year.

[00:35:01] It wasn't as effective.

[00:35:03] It kind of was night and day compared to where it was in 22.

[00:35:05] It's a lot better here in 24.

[00:35:08] That run value was back up at 10.

[00:35:10] Guys weren't hitting it.

[00:35:11] Looked like he had the shape of it back much more so.

[00:35:14] That was a good sign.

[00:35:15] Mm-hmm.

[00:35:17] And his fastball and sinker, we thought, in the second year of that mix, would see a jump forward in run value.

[00:35:25] It didn't really.

[00:35:27] But there are times when run value is an imperfect stat.

[00:35:34] I think it gives you a generalization in one number how effective a pitch can be.

[00:35:39] But it's not the end-all, be-all, right?

[00:35:42] Because his sinker didn't, you know, his sinker is not going to blow you away when it comes to run value.

[00:35:48] But the pitch got a ton of swing and miss and didn't allow an extra base hit all season long.

[00:35:53] Sounds pretty valuable.

[00:35:54] Even if the run value doesn't say, oh, you got a minus 20 run value, which is elite.

[00:35:58] Just right where his slider was in 2022.

[00:36:03] Just because the run value is 0, 1, 2, negative 1, negative 2.

[00:36:09] Negative is good for pitchers, by the way.

[00:36:10] Positive is good for batters.

[00:36:12] They changed that around.

[00:36:13] It's not like that anymore.

[00:36:14] Oh, it's not?

[00:36:15] No.

[00:36:16] Huh.

[00:36:17] It's just, it's positive for both hitters and pitchers.

[00:36:20] Well, red is good, blue is bad when you're looking at the page anyways.

[00:36:24] The darker the red or the darker the blue, good or bad.

[00:36:28] So, like, it's just like, it's sort of, it's baseline on what to expect.

[00:36:33] And all of his sinker and his slider generated a ton of whiff.

[00:36:38] The whiff went up again this year after taking a break last year.

[00:36:44] And he's sort of, you know, evolving towards the standard reliever that you want to be.

[00:36:51] Like, the next step, right, is with this arsenal bringing his walks down.

[00:36:55] So, you have the triple threat of, okay, you strike out batters almost more than any pitcher in baseball.

[00:37:02] You have three different pitches to use as a reliever.

[00:37:05] You generate a ton of ground balls and you limit damage.

[00:37:08] That's what relievers want to do.

[00:37:09] You don't allow hard contact, you strike out a lot of batters, and you don't walk batters.

[00:37:14] That's the trifecta for relievers.

[00:37:17] This was a step towards that, and that's why the sinker was so important.

[00:37:20] The thing he did do in 2022, Lyle, as you remember, he's not a huge ground ball guy.

[00:37:25] It was getting hit in the air when he did get hit, and his fastball would get hit pretty hard.

[00:37:30] Now, it's a little bit harder to hit Andres Munoz harder.

[00:37:36] Yeah.

[00:37:37] Yes, it is.

[00:37:38] Also, he's just the greatest dude ever.

[00:37:41] So, rooting for him is the easiest thing in the world to do.

[00:37:44] So, to see him thrive, to see him do well, it's awesome.

[00:37:47] Yeah.

[00:37:49] The official note on him going long, 11 times this year, by far the most he's ever done it in his career.

[00:37:57] It's an insane workload.

[00:37:59] You'd think of how many more games the Mariners would have lost if Andres Munoz wasn't able to cover those 11 outings.

[00:38:05] Because, I'll tell you what, they needed him for all of those outings to win games.

[00:38:11] And that is part of the reason he had a 1-4 ERA in the first half, but a 3-4 in the second half.

[00:38:15] Obviously, you'd love to see the guy have a 1-4 all year.

[00:38:18] Most guys don't do that.

[00:38:19] And especially when he just didn't have the same supporting cast at the back end of the bullpen that he's had in years past.

[00:38:24] It's harder.

[00:38:25] Yeah, he's asked to do more.

[00:38:26] And as a result, he doesn't have as much help back there.

[00:38:29] And I was going to say, as we start to transition into talking about some of these other relievers,

[00:38:33] we're going to talk about five other guys.

[00:38:35] We'll probably just spend a minute or two on each of them.

[00:38:37] Munoz is the big topic of the relievers to talk about, obviously, because he's the best one.

[00:38:42] But most of the guys that were expected to be the marquee guys in this bullpen were not going to talk about because they barely pitched.

[00:38:49] Brash didn't pitch at all, obviously.

[00:38:51] He had the Tommy John.

[00:38:52] Santos only threw a handful of innings all year.

[00:38:54] Gabe Spire, who's obviously our guy, spent a ton of time injured this year.

[00:38:59] Jimmy Garcia spent a ton of time injured.

[00:39:01] So a lot of guys that were supposed to be kind of those back end options with Munoz, they just weren't healthy.

[00:39:08] So we're not going to talk about those guys as much.

[00:39:10] I have one more Munoz stat to throw out, and I will throw this out with a prefix that this is going to be a very common theme for almost every reliever we talk about.

[00:39:20] And it's the same thing, Lyle, with most of the pitchers on this roster, that the home-away splits are just drastic.

[00:39:30] Someone, they're going to need to do a 30-for-30 on the 2024 season at T-Mobile Park.

[00:39:35] Listen to some of these stats from Andres Munoz.

[00:39:38] This man had a 0.28 ERA at home.

[00:39:42] 0.28 ERA at home.

[00:39:44] 4-2-3 on the road.

[00:39:46] 13 of his 14 earned runs allowed this season were on the road.

[00:39:50] 5 of his 6 home runs.

[00:39:53] He had a 30-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

[00:40:00] Like Andres Munoz on the road was not great.

[00:40:05] He was walking a lot more batters.

[00:40:07] He's getting hit a lot harder.

[00:40:08] He has never had a bigger gap between his home ERA and his road ERA.

[00:40:13] I'm just at a loss to words for how these guys pitch at T-Mobile Park.

[00:40:19] And then I assume they try and replicate it on the road and it just doesn't really work as well.

[00:40:26] Yeah, that's true.

[00:40:28] They got to figure this out for next year.

[00:40:30] You just can't be one-dimensional as a pitching staff.

[00:40:33] You can't because you're going to lose too many games doing that.

[00:40:36] We saw, look, this bullpen as a whole, it really wasn't some awful bullpen.

[00:40:42] They were still in the top 10 in a lot of team categories as a bullpen unit.

[00:40:46] The problem was, one, the offense just wasn't good enough, but that's beating a dead horse at this point.

[00:40:50] We all know that.

[00:40:52] And because they played in all these close games, there was no margin for error.

[00:40:55] Paired with the bullpen's ability to not pitch as effectively on the road led to a lot more losses.

[00:40:59] And the bullpen as a collective unit was pretty bad in August in a bad month for the franchise period.

[00:41:09] Offensively, starting pitching and bullpen all pretty much collectively collapsed in August, led to the manager getting fired, etc., etc.

[00:41:18] Andres Munoz was no exception to that.

[00:41:20] I think everyone remembers the Javi Baez home run.

[00:41:24] That was in August.

[00:41:25] Yeah, yeah, it was.

[00:41:27] All right, let's kind of rip through a few of these other guys.

[00:41:30] There's five other relievers that threw enough innings that warn us to talk about them here on this show.

[00:41:36] Next guy.

[00:41:37] They talk about the Steckenreiter bucket a lot.

[00:41:40] Guys that just come out of nowhere and have this huge season with Seattle.

[00:41:45] That was Colin Snyder this year.

[00:41:47] So he's our second guy we're going to talk about.

[00:41:49] Your grade for him was?

[00:41:51] Colin gets an A.

[00:41:53] Same here?

[00:41:55] It's hard to...

[00:41:56] Again, another A-plus dude.

[00:41:58] Colin's the man.

[00:41:59] But also, just given where this guy was in his career.

[00:42:03] Common story with a lot of these Mariners relievers.

[00:42:06] But Colin Snyder was bad before he got to Seattle.

[00:42:11] He hadn't pitched well in the big leagues.

[00:42:13] Comes to Seattle and puts it all together and has a sub-2 ERA.

[00:42:20] Is he due for a little bit of regression if the Mariners give him another bullpen spot next year?

[00:42:25] Probably.

[00:42:25] His expected ERA was near 4.

[00:42:28] His FIP was about 3.5.

[00:42:29] So was his ex-FIP.

[00:42:30] So, it's not a perfect profile for Colin Snyder.

[00:42:36] He is not.

[00:42:37] I wouldn't put him quite on the level of 2021 Paul Seawold when it comes to breakout.

[00:42:43] Because outside of the ERA, Snyder doesn't have many of the other variables to match up.

[00:42:49] But it doesn't ignore the fact that Colin Snyder wasn't really good.

[00:42:52] Because he was.

[00:42:53] And he was, down the stretch, the second most important reliever on this team.

[00:42:57] I'm not really sure where they are.

[00:42:59] Or even if they stay in the race until the last week of the season.

[00:43:02] They didn't have Colin Snyder as their second relief arm.

[00:43:06] Their second high-leverage relief arm down the stretch.

[00:43:09] He was not expected to do anything, really, this season.

[00:43:13] Bouncing up and down between the big leagues and the minors for the first couple months of the season.

[00:43:17] And then, man, just really took off.

[00:43:20] Yeah, remember he got hit on the hand in Milwaukee.

[00:43:23] And he spent some time on the injured list for a couple weeks.

[00:43:26] And then, for a while, there just wasn't a spot for him to consistently get reps.

[00:43:30] Finally, he broke through.

[00:43:32] And after that, he just hit the ground running.

[00:43:34] Put up a 1-9-4 ERA.

[00:43:36] My notes were similar to yours.

[00:43:38] A lot of the expected say there might be some regression in 2025.

[00:43:41] But you put up a 1-9 ERA for the year, you get an A.

[00:43:44] You were the second most valuable reliever on the team.

[00:43:46] In a year where there was a ton of injuries in the bullpen, you get an A.

[00:43:51] I just think people's expectations should be for next year.

[00:43:54] Look, and if Colin surpasses this and he goes out and he goes off again, great.

[00:43:58] I hope he does.

[00:44:00] But if he is a middle reliever next year instead of a leverage reliever, that's fine too.

[00:44:05] If he's a 3-3, 3-4 ERA guy next year out of the bullpen, that's still a valuable guy to have in your bullpen.

[00:44:12] I just wouldn't absolutely bank on him throwing in a ton of leverage again for similar reasons that you pointed out.

[00:44:19] Because there are some things in his profile that say maybe he'll regress a little bit.

[00:44:23] But do I think he'll be a member of this bullpen in 2025?

[00:44:25] And a guy that can play a real role?

[00:44:28] Have value?

[00:44:29] Yes.

[00:44:32] The reasons that he couldn't regress, there are some very positive things.

[00:44:37] Didn't get hit very hard and got whiffs at a high rate.

[00:44:41] Those are always good.

[00:44:42] Did have a pretty low ground ball rate and a high barrel rate and a high expected batting average.

[00:44:46] So when guys were hitting the ball in play, it's more often than not was going to be a hit against Colin Snyder.

[00:44:52] And on top of that, back to the run value point, his top three pitches that he threw generated a grand total of zero run value.

[00:45:01] So they weren't blow-you-away pitches.

[00:45:05] And again, I'll remind people with relievers, run value is a cumulative stat too.

[00:45:09] And relievers have less volume than any other position on a Major League Baseball field.

[00:45:14] So it's kind of hard to generate that kind of stuff.

[00:45:18] Let's say he was the one guy who could pitch on the road.

[00:45:21] He had no problem pitching on the road.

[00:45:23] He was significantly better on the road than he was at home.

[00:45:26] So he's got to share the secret.

[00:45:28] Yeah, he does.

[00:45:30] Okay.

[00:45:31] We ready to move on to the next guy?

[00:45:33] That was a good Colin Snyder segment.

[00:45:35] Let's go to Troy Taylor.

[00:45:38] What was your grade for him?

[00:45:40] Troy Taylor.

[00:45:41] You know, given the expectations, I'm going to give Troy an A-.

[00:45:44] It wasn't perfect.

[00:45:46] That dude's 22 years old.

[00:45:49] He was, before he debuted in August, a year and a half earlier, he was a 21-year-old pitching his first ever innings in Pro Bowl in Modesto.

[00:46:01] And it took until August, a year and a half later, for him to debut and show some really solid stuff in the Mariners' bullpen.

[00:46:08] So that's why he gets an A-.

[00:46:11] I gave him a B+.

[00:46:12] So we're right along the same lines.

[00:46:14] He did falter a little bit down the stretch in September.

[00:46:17] His August compared to his September were two fairly different stories.

[00:46:21] But, again, the guy was brought up in August when there were so many injuries in the bullpen.

[00:46:26] And not only asked to play a role, but by the end, he was throwing in leverage.

[00:46:30] Their leverage guys, by the end of the year, it was Andres, obviously.

[00:46:33] It was Colin Snyder.

[00:46:35] But, again, Troy Taylor got to the point where he was basically third.

[00:46:38] And for being a 22-year-old with so little big league experience, he didn't even throw 20 innings to be thrown in leverage.

[00:46:45] There's a lot to like about Troy Taylor.

[00:46:47] You better believe he's going to be in this bullpen in 2025, barring injury.

[00:46:51] And he's a guy where, depending on what they do with the rest of the bullpen,

[00:46:57] he really might throw in leverage for a long time for this team.

[00:47:00] Because he got strikeouts.

[00:47:02] He has good stuff.

[00:47:03] He's got a chance to be really important in 25.

[00:47:06] I'm excited for him.

[00:47:07] That slider's a legit pitch.

[00:47:08] 39% strikeout rate, 44% whiff rate.

[00:47:12] Like, really legit.

[00:47:13] His fastball, he threw pretty hard.

[00:47:15] Not the best results in the world.

[00:47:17] But we'd love to see a full season of that at the big league level.

[00:47:20] And it's just hard to ignore what he did down in the minors and not get excited for what a full big league offseason for Troy Taylor would look like.

[00:47:29] He had a 1-5 ERA to start the season in Everett in 12 innings, got promoted to Arkansas, and then in 30 and two-thirds had a 1-1-7.

[00:47:39] So it's pretty good reason to get excited for Troy Taylor coming up here next year.

[00:47:44] And to mention his bad, I guess, finish to the season, most of that came in the final week of the season.

[00:47:53] You could very easy just chalk that up to fatigue for him, pitching this deep into the season.

[00:48:00] So it came in two outings in the final week of the season.

[00:48:03] Right.

[00:48:04] Right.

[00:48:04] Small sample size with relievers.

[00:48:06] He only threw 19 innings, so two bad outings.

[00:48:08] It'll make your ERA look a whole lot worse than it actually is.

[00:48:11] But it's definitely a lot to like with Troy Taylor.

[00:48:13] Super, super excited and super, super young.

[00:48:18] Can't really cannot emphasize that enough.

[00:48:21] How how young Troy Taylor is.

[00:48:22] He's 22 years old.

[00:48:23] So it's going to be an exciting guy to watch coming up here in 2025.

[00:48:28] The one thing.

[00:48:29] Oh, the one thing that Troy Taylor did not do in the minors was rack up a lot of strikeouts.

[00:48:35] Small sample.

[00:48:36] But he racked up 11 and a half strikeouts per nine in his time in the big leagues.

[00:48:40] So the one thing he wasn't doing at an extremely high rate in double A or in high A.

[00:48:45] He did it in the big leagues.

[00:48:47] We'll see what he does next year.

[00:48:48] But that is a very, very encouraging sign that he was racking up swing and miss.

[00:48:52] He was racking up strikeouts.

[00:48:54] All that.

[00:48:54] The one thing I'd say for Troy Taylor as we wrap up the Troy Taylor segment here.

[00:48:58] He's another guy that if he could get his walks down a little bit, that would be great.

[00:49:03] But again, we're nitpicking off a guy that only had less than two months of big league experience.

[00:49:07] And we now know has a very bright future in the bullpen.

[00:49:11] Our next guy is Trent Thornton.

[00:49:14] Lyle, what's your grade?

[00:49:16] I give Trent a B.

[00:49:18] Look, season as a whole, he was he was a perfectly fine reliever.

[00:49:24] His ERA was three six.

[00:49:25] He has two really good sliders that profile very well.

[00:49:30] His fastball gets hit pretty hard and he would have some outings where he would get hit around.

[00:49:35] But if you're grading him as a middle reliever, which is what he was supposed to be in his season as a whole,

[00:49:40] while sometimes things would get a little up and down, I actually like his stuff.

[00:49:44] He's got a decent profile.

[00:49:46] Again, this bullpen was not as bad as it felt to the casual or just to fans in general

[00:49:52] watching day in and day out during the season.

[00:49:55] And because toward the end, they started to blow a lot of leads.

[00:49:57] And part of that was because in July and in August, the offense was doing nothing to help him out.

[00:50:01] And they were asked to carry the load every night.

[00:50:05] But Trent Thornton as a whole, his season as a whole.

[00:50:07] Yeah, he had a perfectly fine year.

[00:50:08] I give him a B.

[00:50:10] I give him a B too.

[00:50:11] And this is going to be a common theme with some of these relievers.

[00:50:16] They all have pretty good looking savant pages.

[00:50:19] So I'm going to try not to repeat myself every time.

[00:50:22] Oh, this savant page actually looks better than it has mostly in his career.

[00:50:25] Yeah, the Mariners tend to do that.

[00:50:27] They have guys with the quote unquote under the hood numbers.

[00:50:31] Have them look pretty dang good.

[00:50:33] And Trent Thornton is that guy.

[00:50:35] Above average across the board in expected numbers, except for ground ball rate and barrel rate.

[00:50:42] Everything else was above average.

[00:50:44] The run values weren't fantastic.

[00:50:47] He was about middle of the pack there.

[00:50:48] And that's about where his grade was at a B.

[00:50:52] He had a bit of variance when it came to his season.

[00:50:57] He had that very noted stretch in the middle of the season where he gave up hits in 15 consecutive outings.

[00:51:04] It's not a typo.

[00:51:06] 15 consecutive outings he gave up a hit in.

[00:51:10] But what doesn't get talked about a lot, Lyle, is that right after that,

[00:51:14] which was, I believe, August 4th to the end of the season, he had a 0.54 ERA.

[00:51:21] From the outing right after he gave up that 15th hit outing in a row,

[00:51:28] to the end of the season was a 0.54 ERA.

[00:51:32] It's a pretty big variance there for Trent Thornton.

[00:51:34] He was pretty nails down the stretch, mixing up all of his pitches and doing anything.

[00:51:39] So, for middle relief, definitely a positive for Trent Thornton.

[00:51:46] For sure.

[00:51:47] You know another guy who kind of had a similar story to his season,

[00:51:51] as we move on to the next candidate here, is Taylor Saucedo.

[00:51:54] A guy who was really hot at times, really cold at times.

[00:51:57] What was your grade for him?

[00:51:58] I gave Taylor a B.

[00:52:00] Same.

[00:52:01] Same idea.

[00:52:03] First half, he had a .222 ERA.

[00:52:06] Second half, it was over 5.

[00:52:09] His first half was awesome.

[00:52:10] And his savant page, like you just talked about with Thornton,

[00:52:13] he does a bunch of things well.

[00:52:15] Still had a good sinker.

[00:52:17] Doesn't get hit hard by, doesn't get hit hard.

[00:52:19] Lefties have trouble against him.

[00:52:21] Still gets chase.

[00:52:24] But he got a little bit wild toward the second half of the year,

[00:52:27] and it led to being a little less effective than he was in the first half.

[00:52:31] So, season as a whole, again, he was a guy that had a 3.4 ERA.

[00:52:34] Season as a whole was definitely B-worthy.

[00:52:36] It just wasn't an A-level season for a full six months.

[00:52:42] If you ask a general fan who would know this answer,

[00:52:47] whether Taylor Saucedo had a better season in 23 or 24,

[00:52:50] what do you think they'd say?

[00:52:52] I'm sure they'd say 23.

[00:52:54] I agree.

[00:52:56] But I actually think he was better this year.

[00:52:59] Maybe not as consistent, but the numbers say he did.

[00:53:03] His savant page looks pretty much the same.

[00:53:06] His role was pretty much the same.

[00:53:09] He was just as effective against lefties.

[00:53:13] He struggled just as much against righties.

[00:53:17] He had a lower ERA.

[00:53:19] He had a lower expected ERA.

[00:53:20] He had a lower FIP, XFIP, a higher strikeout rate, a lower walk rate,

[00:53:25] like across the board.

[00:53:28] That tells me better season in 2024.

[00:53:31] Totally consistent?

[00:53:34] No.

[00:53:36] He was better last year at getting more balls on the ground.

[00:53:39] I think guys got him in the air a little bit more this year.

[00:53:42] But it didn't mean he was less effective.

[00:53:44] He was pretty effective.

[00:53:48] Yeah.

[00:53:48] But the second half was tough.

[00:53:51] A 5-6-5 ERA, and six of those runs came up in a week's span.

[00:53:58] With many of these relievers, it takes one bad week to ruin a half.

[00:54:02] So that's kind of how it was for Taylor Saucedo.

[00:54:06] What I took away from this, though, is that he's going to have the lefty role next year.

[00:54:12] I think that's pretty clear.

[00:54:14] I know not everyone might be sold that he should be the number one guy in the running for that.

[00:54:19] But looking at these numbers and what he's asked to do against lefties generating ground balls,

[00:54:24] even if he's not as consistent throwing strikes,

[00:54:27] I think at least he's going to start next year with this role.

[00:54:30] Yeah.

[00:54:30] And that is the key for him in 2025.

[00:54:32] Can he throw a few more strikes?

[00:54:33] If he can, he can improve on what he did this year.

[00:54:37] He could have a better year in 2025.

[00:54:39] But yeah, it's safe to say that's going to be the case.

[00:54:42] Again, we'll see what happens with Gabe in the spring, too, and how he looks.

[00:54:46] Hopefully he's recovered fully from, you know, the shoulder injury by then.

[00:54:49] I mean, not that he wasn't healthy in pitching at times during the second half of 2024.

[00:54:54] But when you have a full off season, get back to your roots, all that stuff.

[00:54:59] Like, Gabe looks so good in April.

[00:55:02] And then he had the injury.

[00:55:04] And his season just wasn't the same.

[00:55:05] But yes, because Sauce was on the field, because he was healthy,

[00:55:09] because for most of the year he was, or at least for the first half of the year,

[00:55:11] he was effective.

[00:55:12] Aside from that one week, for the most part, he was effective.

[00:55:14] Yeah, it's safe to say he'll have that role.

[00:55:17] Let's get to the last guy, Austin Voth.

[00:55:20] What's your grade?

[00:55:22] Similar theme here.

[00:55:23] He gets a B.

[00:55:24] A lot of his stuff actually plays very well.

[00:55:27] His fastball and his curveball were really good.

[00:55:29] Doesn't get hit hard at all.

[00:55:30] In fact, we're talking 99th percentile of the league in hard hit rate.

[00:55:34] Doesn't give up a lot of hard contact.

[00:55:37] Underlying numbers were pretty good.

[00:55:39] His XERA was 3-2.

[00:55:42] So, similar to Trent Thornton.

[00:55:44] There were parts of his game that are really good.

[00:55:45] He just had some very inopportune outings at times.

[00:55:48] You think about that series in Anaheim where he gave up some very,

[00:55:52] very key home runs.

[00:55:53] He wasn't perfect, but he had a perfectly fine season.

[00:55:56] The home road splits were pretty drastic with him.

[00:56:00] The fact that he doesn't get hard primarily throwing a four-seam fastball

[00:56:04] on a slider is remarkable.

[00:56:07] And the fact that his fastball is only about 93.5 on average.

[00:56:12] So, the fact he managed that was pretty cool.

[00:56:16] The savant page overall was good.

[00:56:19] And he was a solid middle reliever.

[00:56:22] What kind of stands out to me though, you have 68 games.

[00:56:26] You throw 61 innings and you accumulate zero war.

[00:56:30] He had zero this year.

[00:56:32] It does take into account some factors when it comes to contributing to winning baseball games.

[00:56:38] So, it led to Austin Voth having a solid season.

[00:56:42] Not a slam dunk to be on the roster again next year, I don't think.

[00:56:46] But, fine.

[00:56:48] It was fine.

[00:56:49] Him, Thornton, Saucedo.

[00:56:53] It's all pretty similar when it comes to results.

[00:56:56] That was the, I would say, the theme of this Mariners bullpen.

[00:56:59] It was a lot of fine to good.

[00:57:03] But, like when they made the playoffs in 2022,

[00:57:06] at times they were great.

[00:57:08] Not enough great.

[00:57:10] And that explains it with disgrace,

[00:57:12] that Andres Munoz is the only one who excelled all season long.

[00:57:17] And in 2023, same story.

[00:57:20] Munoz was really good.

[00:57:21] Brash was really good.

[00:57:22] We know Justin Topa was great.

[00:57:25] Gabe Speyer had an awesome year.

[00:57:27] It was a really good bullpen in 2023.

[00:57:29] 2024 was good.

[00:57:31] It was above average, that's for sure.

[00:57:33] Again, they ranked in the top 10 in a lot of categories.

[00:57:35] Just wasn't the same as 22 and 23.

[00:57:37] So, we'll see what this bullpen looks like next year.

[00:57:40] At some point, you're going to get Brash back.

[00:57:42] You would assume around June or July.

[00:57:43] You hope Santos is healthy.

[00:57:45] You'll have Munoz.

[00:57:47] But it'll be interesting how they stack this bullpen moving forward.

[00:57:50] Because, you're not going to go out and sign a bunch of elite offensive players,

[00:57:54] which they should.

[00:57:55] But if you don't, then it becomes a lot about how good can your bullpen be.

[00:57:59] And if that's the case, you need some real leverage bullpen arms.

[00:58:02] So, they may have to go find some of those guys.

[00:58:05] And if they go find some guys from outside the organization,

[00:58:08] obviously when you bring somebody in,

[00:58:10] somebody goes out in terms of somebody won't be in the bullpen next year.

[00:58:14] So, we'll see how they handle all that and how they manage all that.

[00:58:17] It's going to be interesting.

[00:58:18] This bullpen in 24 was good.

[00:58:20] It just wasn't great.

[00:58:21] For a couple of these guys, it was their first breakout as well.

[00:58:25] Their first full season in the Mariners' bullpen.

[00:58:27] And they saw better results, whether expected or on the field.

[00:58:30] Snyder, both Thornton in some aspects.

[00:58:34] Troy Taylor's more of a prospect.

[00:58:36] So, I don't think that really counts.

[00:58:37] More of the guys who were claimed, signed with a small deal, etc.

[00:58:42] There's only one reliever, Lyle, if I'm recounting correctly,

[00:58:46] in this DiPoto era who has repeated a breakout for a second season,

[00:58:50] and it's Paul Seawalt.

[00:58:51] I'll just note that.

[00:58:52] I want everyone listening to think about that going into next season.

[00:58:57] Paul Seawalt's the only one of the more no-name guys who broke out

[00:59:02] who were able to string together two consecutive breakout seasons.

[00:59:05] Do you count Andres Munoz in that?

[00:59:08] He wasn't really a big-name guy.

[00:59:11] He throws 100 miles an hour, and he was hurt.

[00:59:14] He was a prospect.

[00:59:16] I'm talking about more of the veteran guys who have been in the big leagues

[00:59:21] and are rehabilitated.

[00:59:25] More so than a 23-year-old Andres Munoz coming in and throwing 100 miles an hour

[00:59:30] with a 92-mile-an-hour slider.

[00:59:34] Fair.

[00:59:34] That's fair.

[00:59:36] So, the guys I'm thinking about in this bucket, I mean, it's Drew Steckenreiter

[00:59:40] didn't do that.

[00:59:42] Seawalt did.

[00:59:43] He's the example.

[00:59:45] Like, Gabe, unfortunately, due to injuries, did not do that.

[00:59:50] Who else am I thinking of?

[00:59:52] Topol was gone.

[00:59:52] Topol was gone and hurt.

[00:59:55] Yeah.

[00:59:55] Festa didn't really do that.

[00:59:57] Festa didn't do that.

[00:59:58] Penn Murphy didn't do that.

[01:00:00] Yeah.

[01:00:01] There's quite a few examples, and only one guy was able to repeat it.

[01:00:05] So, I'd like for everyone to just keep that in mind when it comes to guys like

[01:00:09] Colin Snyder, especially.

[01:00:11] Like, love Colin.

[01:00:13] That's what the Mariners' data has showed.

[01:00:15] Right.

[01:00:16] So, what this bullpen looks like in 2025, we don't know.

[01:00:20] It's, will they bring guys from outside the organization?

[01:00:22] Will they look at some higher-end relievers?

[01:00:26] We'll see.

[01:00:27] This offseason's now going.

[01:00:29] Stove's about to get hot.

[01:00:31] And now that we've finished up all our reliever grades, these podcasts going forward, it's a

[01:00:35] lot of offseason stuff, which I know we love.

[01:00:38] We know you guys love.

[01:00:40] And we're looking forward to talking about it.

[01:00:43] Let's hope the Ryan Stanek experiment doesn't sway the Mariners away from looking at some

[01:00:52] relievers.

[01:00:53] Just looking.

[01:00:53] They don't have to spend it, but don't ignore it.

[01:00:58] Because we saw what a thin bullpen does, Lyle.

[01:01:01] Thin bullpen potentially costs the team a playoff spot.

[01:01:03] If they're going to play the margins like this, they're going to want as many arms there as

[01:01:08] possible.

[01:01:08] And not all of them are available in the minor leagues.

[01:01:11] Right.

[01:01:12] Okay, before we wrap this podcast up, very quickly.

[01:01:15] By the time we have an episode out again, which will be Wednesday, will Jerry and the Mariners

[01:01:21] have made a trade?

[01:01:25] Screw it.

[01:01:25] Yes.

[01:01:26] Yes.

[01:01:27] I'll say yes.

[01:01:28] Because you know what?

[01:01:29] That's what makes the offseason fun.

[01:01:30] We want transactions.

[01:01:32] Give us transactions.

[01:01:33] How is this team going to get better?

[01:01:35] Let's go.

[01:01:36] Yeah.

[01:01:37] I thought you were going to stop and admire the Joey Decor jersey.

[01:01:39] Shout out ASU.

[01:01:40] Oh, look at that.

[01:01:41] Well, him too.

[01:01:41] He's been good.

[01:01:43] 35.

[01:01:44] He's been good.

[01:01:45] Forks up.

[01:01:45] I just want everyone on this podcast to know I was first.

[01:01:48] This jersey besides his family.

[01:01:50] This is when he was third string.

[01:01:52] But yeah, go on, Jerry.

[01:01:53] Go out and make it.

[01:01:54] Yeah.

[01:01:55] All right.

[01:01:56] That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast.

[01:01:59] You guys know the drill.

[01:02:00] You want to listen to the full form podcast?

[01:02:01] Do so.

[01:02:02] So wherever you get your audio pods, make sure to download.

[01:02:05] Make sure to leave a review.

[01:02:06] Leave that review.

[01:02:07] Again, I don't want to get made fun of on the air anymore for it.

[01:02:10] So leave a review.

[01:02:11] Leave it five stars.

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[01:02:26] The whole nine yards.

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[01:02:33] Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod.

[01:02:37] That's TJ.

[01:02:38] I'm Lyle.

[01:02:39] As always, we thank you guys for tuning in.

[01:02:41] We'll talk to you soon.