Episode 183: Bailey Freeman (Foolish Baseball)

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 183 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We welcome on Bailey Freeman, also known as Foolish Baseball on YouTube. We chat with him about the Mariners offseason, the usefulness of advanced numbers, which he uses so much on his channel. And we also talk to him about the success of Foolish Baseball and Baseball Bits.

[00:00:21] Here's your guys reminder. Do us a huge favor if you're listening to these podcasts. Just take a minute, download these episodes, rate and review if you have some extra time to leave it five stars. It does help us get this podcast out there as much as possible. And if you're watching on YouTube, just hit the subscribe button. It's right there. It's the best way you can support the channel. Make sure if you're already subscribing, drop a like, leave a comment to let us know what you want to hear all that good stuff over on YouTube. And then on social media, we're on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Podcast.

[00:00:50] Let's get it rolling.

[00:01:33] Only the Angels can find matches, and they only kept it lit for a minute or two with some weird trades over the last couple weeks. That's it.

[00:01:41] They went to the Dollar Tree for their matches.

[00:01:44] Yeah, that's about right. Oh, you know what we should talk about here for a minute? The hot stove's not back yet. You know who is, though? Us. The two of us.

[00:01:53] What?

[00:01:56] You know what I'm talking about.

[00:01:57] Yeah, I do.

[00:01:58] Yeah. We're back? Now, what do we mean by that? I'll let TJ explain.

[00:02:02] So we have, in this offseason, expanded our range a little bit.

[00:02:09] So we have created a new channel, a new brand on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube.

[00:02:15] We're going to branch out and do some national stuff.

[00:02:18] A lot of short form, a lot of trivia.

[00:02:21] We're going to fire off some takes on there as well.

[00:02:24] It's also going to be fan-focused, too, when we get back out into some more public baseball settings.

[00:02:31] Like, we'll be at the winter meetings coming up here in December.

[00:02:34] And then once the season gets underway as well, a chance for us to get out into the masses.

[00:02:40] And instead of just the Mariners fan base, we'll now hopefully be connected to all 30.

[00:02:44] So one step at a time, we got it started here on Monday.

[00:02:48] We posted our first video here on Monday.

[00:02:50] So if you want to go check that out on TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, look for Bullpen Banter Baseball.

[00:02:57] Bullpen Banter Baseball.

[00:02:58] We put it on our story here on Monday, and I'm sure you'll see it over the course of this week.

[00:03:04] Yeah, so that's our at.

[00:03:06] The brand name is going to be Bullpen Banter.

[00:03:09] So Bullpen, B-A-N-T-E-R.

[00:03:12] And like TJ said, just to add a couple pieces of context to all this, we love the Mariners.

[00:03:17] The Mariners are our biggest passion.

[00:03:20] The Marine Layer Podcast is not going anywhere.

[00:03:22] Far from it.

[00:03:23] We just also want to try to do some stuff nationally, too, and build up a page on the national scale as well.

[00:03:28] So we're going to be tackling both.

[00:03:30] We've got some really fun ideas for it.

[00:03:32] But we're hoping to not just do some stuff with fans.

[00:03:34] So let me add the context.

[00:03:36] The two of us, a lot of the time, will just be sitting and pumping out content, short-form content,

[00:03:44] based on takes the two of us have, the two of us quizzing one another, doing trivia.

[00:03:48] But when we're out in the public, whenever we have the chance and we have our mic,

[00:03:53] we're going to try to get as many people on the mic as possible.

[00:03:55] And the nice thing about doing a national brand is whatever team somebody's a fan of,

[00:03:59] we can center something around them.

[00:04:01] And not just fans.

[00:04:03] We're hoping to do it with a bunch of people.

[00:04:04] If we find celebrities that want to do it, great.

[00:04:07] If we find baseball media members that want to do it, awesome.

[00:04:10] If players are into the idea, couldn't be more on board with it.

[00:04:14] So we just started it.

[00:04:15] When I say brand new, it is brand new.

[00:04:18] And we're hoping to see where it goes.

[00:04:20] We're hoping it has a little bit of success.

[00:04:22] And if you guys are interested to check that out, too, it would mean a ton to us.

[00:04:25] It would mean the world to us if you check it out.

[00:04:28] Also on X and Blue Sky as well.

[00:04:29] We have a link tree that I can't remember.

[00:04:31] We'll put the...

[00:04:32] Let's...

[00:04:33] Well, let's put the link tree in the description of this episode.

[00:04:35] So in case you're curious, you can go check out all of our social media platforms for

[00:04:40] that new channel.

[00:04:40] And now you have multiple ways to consume the both of us, which is nice.

[00:04:45] Mariner's stuff here.

[00:04:47] National stuff there on the bullpen banner pages.

[00:04:50] So stay tuned to that.

[00:04:51] It should be a lot of fun.

[00:04:52] One last thing.

[00:04:53] It's not a podcast.

[00:04:54] So if you're looking for long form podcasts, we're not doing that with this.

[00:04:58] It is going to be all centered around short form.

[00:05:00] So it's going to be short form.

[00:05:03] It won't take up that much of your time.

[00:05:04] If you want to watch 60 seconds a day or however many times we post a day.

[00:05:07] Yeah, it'll be all centered around that.

[00:05:11] Let's talk about...

[00:05:12] Before we get to Foolish Baseball, fantastic interview with Bailey Freeman.

[00:05:16] A conversation I've been looking forward to having for a while now.

[00:05:19] And we're finally able to get it.

[00:05:21] But we'll talk about that a little bit more after a couple of points here about the lack

[00:05:26] thereof the hot stove.

[00:05:27] There has been a couple of really interesting storylines that kind of tie to the Mariners,

[00:05:31] kind of don't.

[00:05:32] But we can still talk about it.

[00:05:34] Should we kick it off with the Juan Soto conversation again, Lyle?

[00:05:40] Yes.

[00:05:41] Yes.

[00:05:42] And it ties back to the Dodgers.

[00:05:44] The Dodgers in the spotlight for the second offseason in a row.

[00:05:47] And with a piece of writing that ties back to the Mariners.

[00:05:53] Incredible stuff, I gotta say.

[00:05:54] There's sarcasm in my voice.

[00:05:56] So let me read this tweet from Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.

[00:06:00] So he says,

[00:06:01] Sources tweeted out here on Monday,

[00:06:04] Dodgers are meeting with Juan Soto tomorrow, on Tuesday, as Mark Feinstad first reported.

[00:06:10] Then he adds some context underneath in a paragraph and says,

[00:06:14] Yes, it would be absurd of them to follow a billion dollar offseason with Shohei Otani

[00:06:19] and Yoshinobu Yamamoto with a $600 million contract, which many people anticipate Juan Soto will get.

[00:06:25] But Shohei Otani's first year in L.A. blew away all of their financial projections.

[00:06:31] And they need an outfielder.

[00:06:33] The key sentence there is that Shohei Otani's first year in Los Angeles

[00:06:38] blew away all of their financial projections for this upcoming season

[00:06:42] and what kind of budget they have available to them.

[00:06:45] I can almost remember a similar pitch coming from a podcast last offseason

[00:06:50] about the financial impact of Shohei Otani on a certain team.

[00:06:55] Who's saying that?

[00:06:57] I'm trying to remember.

[00:06:58] Oh, right, that was us.

[00:07:01] Hmm.

[00:07:02] This right here is what pisses me off.

[00:07:05] Right here.

[00:07:05] How is it that fans, podcasters, etc.

[00:07:09] have figured out more than owners of Major League Baseball teams

[00:07:13] that spending money nets you money, especially spending money on a guy like that?

[00:07:19] How?

[00:07:19] We're a couple of dumbass podcasters.

[00:07:21] And we figured it out.

[00:07:23] The whole fan base figured it out.

[00:07:25] 29 other fan bases figured it out.

[00:07:27] How are these owners not seeing the light?

[00:07:31] This idea that owners are more baseball savvy than fans,

[00:07:35] I don't buy that for one second.

[00:07:37] Maybe the Dodgers are.

[00:07:38] Actually, I know the Dodgers are.

[00:07:40] Because they do it.

[00:07:41] Oh, there's a lot of owners across baseball that don't.

[00:07:45] Let me make a couple points on this.

[00:07:48] First off, I don't think any team in baseball would have made more money

[00:07:53] off of Shohei Otani than the LA Dodgers.

[00:07:55] Is that a fair statement?

[00:07:57] Yes, but other teams still would have made a ton.

[00:08:00] Yes or no?

[00:08:01] Yes.

[00:08:02] Okay, thank you.

[00:08:05] Did the, in the hindsight, LA also has the biggest marketing poll on the country of Japan.

[00:08:13] Which I think is also correct.

[00:08:14] It's not Seattle, unfortunately.

[00:08:17] That would be Los Angeles.

[00:08:19] So I think that is also correct.

[00:08:21] However, despite both of these facts.

[00:08:23] Actually, one last fact.

[00:08:24] Hang on.

[00:08:25] My dad.

[00:08:25] I need to respond to something.

[00:08:27] I need to respond to something.

[00:08:28] Seattle did used to have the biggest poll for players from Japan.

[00:08:31] Man, whose fault is that, that they're not anymore?

[00:08:36] Probably a lot of mediocre baseball.

[00:08:39] And 12 years without Ichiro on the roster.

[00:08:42] Or longer than that.

[00:08:42] 13 years without Prime Ichiro on the roster.

[00:08:45] So that helped.

[00:08:47] And it is an absolute, it is a fact.

[00:08:49] This is the last fact before I get back to spinning it our way.

[00:08:54] The Dodgers do have more money to spend than the Mariners.

[00:08:57] That is an objective fact.

[00:08:59] Can't get around that, right?

[00:09:00] Their RSN deal makes a ton more money.

[00:09:02] More money on ticket sales.

[00:09:04] More money on jersey sales.

[00:09:06] Everything.

[00:09:06] More money than the Mariners.

[00:09:07] That's absolutely true.

[00:09:09] That does not mean the Mariners would not have been way more in the green with Shohei Ohtani than they would without.

[00:09:17] All those facts.

[00:09:19] You still would have made significantly more money signing him.

[00:09:23] Than if you didn't.

[00:09:24] Because while you wouldn't have been able.

[00:09:26] It sounds like the Dodgers got about 100% of what they were asking for marketing wise and revenue generating wise out of Shohei Ohtani.

[00:09:35] I'm going to say the Mariners would not have gotten 100% of what the Dodgers were able to generate of Shohei Ohtani.

[00:09:43] Revenue wise.

[00:09:45] But the Mariners really didn't need to.

[00:09:46] They needed to just get.

[00:09:48] What?

[00:09:51] 60 to 70% of that.

[00:09:54] Which is essentially like the percent of valuation the Mariners are of the LA Dodgers.

[00:09:59] Fine.

[00:10:01] So once you get past the current day value of Shohei's contract at what?

[00:10:06] 480.

[00:10:07] Whatever.

[00:10:07] However much it was in current dollars.

[00:10:09] Somewhere in the 440s to 480s.

[00:10:12] Add on top of that whatever you are in the green.

[00:10:15] And.

[00:10:17] Would have worked out.

[00:10:18] And now because of that.

[00:10:20] They can go sign Juan Soto.

[00:10:23] Which is crazy.

[00:10:24] If there ever was incentive to spend money.

[00:10:28] That would be it.

[00:10:29] The Dodgers are showing you.

[00:10:32] Then why have other teams not picked up on it?

[00:10:36] Again this goes back to what I was originally saying.

[00:10:38] How are fans outsmarting owners at this point?

[00:10:42] It's crazy how.

[00:10:43] We know why.

[00:10:44] We know why.

[00:10:45] Because you can make money while not spending money too.

[00:10:49] I really hope to get an owner of a team on this podcast at some point.

[00:10:54] Maybe at some point we will.

[00:10:55] Because there's so many questions I have.

[00:10:56] But including why owners choose to own a baseball team once their career is said and done.

[00:11:02] And I know what some of you are going to say.

[00:11:04] Money.

[00:11:04] They make a bunch of money.

[00:11:05] Yeah.

[00:11:05] I know that.

[00:11:05] I know that's why they get into it.

[00:11:07] But guess what?

[00:11:07] There's still a lot of things you could do post career when you're already a billionaire.

[00:11:10] To keep making you more money that isn't owning a team.

[00:11:14] A.K.A.

[00:11:14] Something that's supposed to be a public service.

[00:11:16] Anyway.

[00:11:17] The A's could have netted significant money on Shohei Ohtani.

[00:11:20] Everybody could have.

[00:11:22] Everybody.

[00:11:22] Everybody.

[00:11:23] But the Dodgers are one of the few organizations out there smart enough to put that into action.

[00:11:29] Shout out to them.

[00:11:31] Yeah.

[00:11:31] Setting a great example for everyone else.

[00:11:33] And everyone should follow.

[00:11:35] And hey.

[00:11:35] If Juan Soto ends up deciding on the Dodgers.

[00:11:39] Good for them.

[00:11:40] I won't have a problem with it.

[00:11:42] I see a lot of people that would have a problem with it.

[00:11:44] I wouldn't.

[00:11:45] They deserve it.

[00:11:47] I would laugh.

[00:11:48] It would be completely the fault of the other owners across the league.

[00:11:52] That refuse to comply with this idea.

[00:11:54] That spending money makes you money.

[00:11:56] Spending money equates to winning.

[00:11:57] You don't have to spend like Steve Cohen.

[00:12:00] But spend smartly.

[00:12:03] Sad.

[00:12:03] Let's get to this other note.

[00:12:05] From.

[00:12:05] That has been circling around baseball.

[00:12:07] I saw this today too.

[00:12:08] I couldn't.

[00:12:09] I really couldn't believe this when I read it.

[00:12:11] This relates a little bit more to the Mariners.

[00:12:13] Since this player I think we assumed.

[00:12:15] Would.

[00:12:16] Being at almost 0% with Juan Soto.

[00:12:18] Be closer to 1%.

[00:12:20] That was Alex Bregman.

[00:12:21] Because as we've both highlighted here on this podcast.

[00:12:25] The available third baseman.

[00:12:27] Around the league right now.

[00:12:29] Is slim.

[00:12:31] It's Alex Bregman and Alec Boehm.

[00:12:34] Bregman's the free agent.

[00:12:35] The one that you only need money to sign.

[00:12:37] It came out today.

[00:12:39] Ken Rosenthal.

[00:12:40] Reported that.

[00:12:41] He was suspecting Alex Bregman.

[00:12:43] And Scott Boris.

[00:12:44] Were aiming.

[00:12:46] Higher than most of the projections.

[00:12:49] How much was Alex Bregman asking for Lyle?

[00:12:52] Do you think?

[00:12:53] How much do you think Alex Bregman and Scott Boris were asking for?

[00:12:56] In Ken Rosenthal's report.

[00:12:59] Do you want me to play dumb to this?

[00:13:01] You could tell the people.

[00:13:03] Okay.

[00:13:04] Alex Bregman and his buddy slash agent Scott Boris are asking for 11 years and $350 million.

[00:13:19] Mariners will never give out that contract.

[00:13:21] Just to start.

[00:13:22] I don't even think that's a good contract for Alex Bregman.

[00:13:25] He's not that good of an offensive player.

[00:13:28] To give that kind of deal to.

[00:13:30] So the comp for that deal was Manny Machado's deal after he opted out.

[00:13:33] Which was 11 for $350 million last offseason.

[00:13:37] Alex Bregman's not Manny Machado.

[00:13:39] I hope him and Scott Boris realize that.

[00:13:43] Now let me spin this into a positive for the Mariners.

[00:13:46] Scott Boris was puffing his chest last offseason.

[00:13:49] Trying to get his guys these insane deals.

[00:13:53] And little did they know.

[00:13:56] That nobody was willing to pay that absurd price.

[00:14:00] For those free agents.

[00:14:02] Going into this past season.

[00:14:03] So what happened?

[00:14:05] Matt Chapman had to sign a small deal.

[00:14:07] So did Blake Snell.

[00:14:09] So did Jordan Montgomery.

[00:14:11] And what do you know?

[00:14:12] Those players were available at the end of the offseason.

[00:14:14] The Mariners could have chose to sign him if they wanted to.

[00:14:16] Decided ultimately not to.

[00:14:18] Now what if the same happens for Alex Bregman this offseason.

[00:14:21] And he has to sign a short contract.

[00:14:26] I'd be interested.

[00:14:27] Sign him for.

[00:14:28] It's like the same storyline as last offseason.

[00:14:31] It was the Mariners had Rojas and Luis Urias on the roster.

[00:14:35] Matt Chapman was still available.

[00:14:37] And they said no we're good.

[00:14:40] But at this point.

[00:14:42] If they have Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore on the roster.

[00:14:47] Looking at third.

[00:14:48] And Alex Bregman is available for a two-year contract.

[00:14:53] I mean wouldn't it would it not.

[00:14:55] You can't make the same mistake twice at this point.

[00:14:57] It doesn't even have to be a two-year deal.

[00:14:59] It could be a one-year deal.

[00:15:00] That might be enough to bridge the gap to Colt Emerson.

[00:15:02] If he's going to play third eventually.

[00:15:04] You got Alex Bregman in Seattle in 2025.

[00:15:07] Yes.

[00:15:07] And guess what?

[00:15:08] You know what Matt Chapman did?

[00:15:10] Signed a big extension.

[00:15:11] Because he played so well in San Francisco.

[00:15:13] They gave him the money.

[00:15:14] And then he actually signed as a Scott Boris client.

[00:15:16] An extension before free agency.

[00:15:18] Now I will say that is probably where Chapman wanted to play.

[00:15:21] And probably why he was incentivized to sign that extension early.

[00:15:25] But.

[00:15:26] I'll tell you what.

[00:15:27] Scott Boris fumbles the bag again on all of his clients.

[00:15:30] He may lose half his clientele this offseason.

[00:15:33] We saw how bad it got last winter.

[00:15:34] Jordan Montgomery literally came out to the public this year.

[00:15:37] And he's like yeah I mean.

[00:15:38] Boris messed up my negotiations pretty bad.

[00:15:41] Just right out to the entire media.

[00:15:44] Just thrown him under the bus.

[00:15:45] And obviously Jordan Montgomery no longer has Scott Boris as his agent.

[00:15:50] But Scott Boris is just one of those people that is so close minded.

[00:15:56] And so sure that he's right all the time.

[00:15:58] That he probably thinks last offseason was some blip on the radar that will never happen again.

[00:16:03] Where if he does this twice.

[00:16:05] People aren't going to trust him anymore.

[00:16:06] Fool me once shame on you.

[00:16:08] Fool me twice shame on me.

[00:16:09] People are not going to trust Scott Boris anymore if he blows this again.

[00:16:13] Oh what is this?

[00:16:14] I think I have a text from Scott Boris giving us some more information on this subject.

[00:16:18] I was curious so I reached out to him.

[00:16:20] Speckled if I don't actually have Scott Boris' number.

[00:16:22] But that would be pretty cool.

[00:16:24] He says Alex Bregman is now asking for $15,000 for $4.50.

[00:16:31] So teams that's what he's asking for.

[00:16:33] And when you're not going to give him that contract.

[00:16:35] He can come to Seattle on a one year.

[00:16:38] We'll give him the AAV.

[00:16:40] Let's say $45 million for one year.

[00:16:42] Sure.

[00:16:43] You know what?

[00:16:44] You know what we can do?

[00:16:46] We can ask Scott Boris as a bullpen banner question at the winter meetings.

[00:16:49] Drop your baseball take Scott Boris.

[00:16:51] See what he's got to say.

[00:16:52] See if he's so sure he's right this winter.

[00:16:56] What do you think he would say?

[00:16:58] Use some stupid play on a words about Alex Bregman or somebody about...

[00:17:05] What's he going to say?

[00:17:06] My AB doesn't run CTE SPN and he deserves the money.

[00:17:15] I don't know.

[00:17:16] That was a good coming up.

[00:17:17] That was a good epiphany there on the fly.

[00:17:21] Scott Boris is always filled with these stupid quotes.

[00:17:23] I went on a rant about it last offseason.

[00:17:24] He's already put some out this winter about some of these different free agents.

[00:17:30] What did he say last year about Jung-Hoo Lee?

[00:17:32] It's like there's some real K-pop coming to America about Jung-Hoo Lee.

[00:17:36] Or the Bellinger one.

[00:17:38] It's like, ooh, I need something to fill my belly.

[00:17:40] So stupid.

[00:17:43] If we do run into him at winter meetings, we're getting him on the mic.

[00:17:46] I don't know for which channel yet.

[00:17:48] Well, actually, we'll come up with both.

[00:17:49] See what we're going to ask him.

[00:17:52] Say, scale of 1 to 10, how's the Cal Rally extension coming?

[00:17:56] Yes.

[00:17:57] I'm sure Scott Boris would love to get on the mic and just be as transparent as humanly possible.

[00:18:03] It's like, okay, just tell me over on – no, we're going to do – here's what we're going to do.

[00:18:08] I'm going to give him a number.

[00:18:09] I'm going to say, okay, over under the total amount the Mariners have offered on a Cal Rally extension.

[00:18:16] $32 million.

[00:18:21] So let us say this.

[00:18:22] We will ask Scott Boris if we run into him.

[00:18:24] Will he say yes?

[00:18:25] Well, I'd put the odds lower.

[00:18:27] We will ask if we run into him.

[00:18:29] Yeah, he's usually got a posse around him.

[00:18:31] So it's a little tricky, but there's never any harm in trying.

[00:18:37] Yeah.

[00:18:38] All right.

[00:18:39] Let's take a minute before we talk to Foolish Baseball.

[00:18:40] We're going to talk to you guys about our friends over at Pagotch's Pub 85.

[00:18:44] Football season's in full swing.

[00:18:45] You guys know that.

[00:18:46] It's getting to the good point of the football season too.

[00:18:48] College football playoff field's getting interesting.

[00:18:51] Games are getting real important in the NFL.

[00:18:53] College basketball started.

[00:18:54] There's hockey going on.

[00:18:55] Cracking were just on a winning streak until the other night.

[00:18:57] There's a ton of sports going on.

[00:18:59] You want to watch the games with your friends?

[00:19:00] Head over there.

[00:19:01] There's awesome food.

[00:19:02] There's games.

[00:19:03] And if you go during happy hour, there are deals from 2 to 6 p.m. on Monday through Friday

[00:19:07] with drinks that feature $3 and $4 options.

[00:19:10] Those are amazing deals.

[00:19:12] And all of that, again, sports, games, food, time with your friends, awesome drinks, all

[00:19:18] of that over at Pagotch's Pub 85 in Kirkland.

[00:19:22] I had really been looking forward to this Foolish Baseball interview for a while.

[00:19:27] I'm really glad he was able to have some time.

[00:19:29] I recommend everybody.

[00:19:32] If you're not familiar with his YouTube channel and you even think of yourself as 5% of a baseball

[00:19:39] geek, I would go check out his channel Foolish Baseball and go watch some of his baseball

[00:19:43] YouTube videos.

[00:19:44] They are these 15-minute baseball video essays on some of the more niche and random baseball

[00:19:54] topics out there.

[00:19:55] They're masterfully done.

[00:19:59] His goal, essentially, is to make more advanced stats.

[00:20:04] He'll usually jostle around with what he uses.

[00:20:07] But he will make some of these more advanced stats digestible for just the casual viewer

[00:20:15] who is not as familiar with those.

[00:20:17] You could have no idea what some of these things mean, but you could understand baseball.

[00:20:21] And you listen to him explain it in these videos.

[00:20:24] He does a really good job explaining it, and I think it makes it a lot more digestible

[00:20:28] for people.

[00:20:29] Very smart baseball mind.

[00:20:30] He's branched out into a number of different things.

[00:20:33] He now has a second channel that he runs as well where he does some other topics.

[00:20:37] But YouTube's his full-time thing, and he does a fantastic job on it, and he really does

[00:20:42] know baseball.

[00:20:43] He's one of the biggest baseball YouTubers on the planet.

[00:20:45] That's just a fact.

[00:20:47] And we won't sugarcoat it.

[00:20:49] We nerded out in this interview with him, and it was really fun because Bailey, TJ and

[00:20:53] I think we're baseball nerds, and you guys probably think we're baseball nerds.

[00:20:57] I don't know if we hold a candle to Bailey, unfortunately.

[00:21:00] This dude goes all out, and it's a big part of the reason we really wanted to have him

[00:21:05] on.

[00:21:05] He loves the Mariners rotation, so we talked plenty about that with him.

[00:21:09] And yeah, super cool interview.

[00:21:12] Hope you guys enjoy it because this is one that we've been looking forward to for a

[00:21:15] long time.

[00:21:16] Let's get you now to the interview with Foolish Baseball.

[00:21:19] Thank you so much.

[00:21:19] Wünschst du dir jemanden, der dich versteht wie kein anderer?

[00:21:23] Jemand, der deine Wünsche wahr werden lässt und mit dir das schönste Abenteuer deines

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[00:22:17] All right, we got Bailey Freeman on with us.

[00:22:20] You might know him better as Foolish Baseball, the creator of Baseball Bits on YouTube.

[00:22:24] Also has a secondary channel, Foolish Bailey.

[00:22:28] Provides some of really the best baseball content in the YouTube space.

[00:22:32] Bailey, thanks so much for taking some time to join us.

[00:22:34] And I wanted to start in an area that I know you don't take suggestions on your Baseball Bits YouTube video.

[00:22:41] So instead of giving you a suggestion, I'm going to plant a thought in your head that might come back to you in six months, ten years.

[00:22:49] Whenever it comes around.

[00:22:51] Because I think a story like this could be told for forever.

[00:22:55] Your videos are pretty timeless.

[00:22:57] So think of this hypothetical team that played in this really weird run environment for an entire season.

[00:23:03] It was just like outlier bad.

[00:23:05] They, in turn, then had this insane starting rotation that was one of, if not the best in baseball.

[00:23:12] Their offense somehow finished the league top 12 across all of baseball in WRC Plus.

[00:23:18] And somehow still missed the playoffs.

[00:23:20] I mean, I feel like that would be a pretty fun story to tell.

[00:23:23] Yeah, and again, this is a hypothetical situation, right?

[00:23:26] This isn't something that actually happened.

[00:23:27] I mean, that sounds impossible.

[00:23:29] That would be, oh, if I were a fan of such a team that did such a thing, oh, I would be going crazy.

[00:23:34] But, yeah, I mean, if such a thing were to eventually happen one Major League Baseball season, it might be worth taking a statistical deep dive into.

[00:23:41] Because you've done videos on teams that are, you know, they're weird teams.

[00:23:46] The one that comes to mind, for our listeners who aren't totally familiar with your YouTube channel,

[00:23:52] just to like the sort of specific nature you go into with some of these baseball bits, YouTube video, baseball essays about literally anything Major League Baseball related.

[00:24:04] You talked about a season like the 2020 Mets.

[00:24:07] Like, would the standard fan know who the 2020 Mets are?

[00:24:11] Probably not.

[00:24:12] But then you point out all these things.

[00:24:13] It's like, huh.

[00:24:15] Well, the Mariners are kind of similar this year in a different way.

[00:24:17] Yeah, and I wonder if there's maybe a team like that just about every year.

[00:24:21] Because last year was definitely the Padres, you know.

[00:24:24] Similar issues with regards to having some, like, good individual performances, but it's just not adding up to team wins in a necessary way.

[00:24:32] You know, sequencing with the offense is such a big issue.

[00:24:35] That's kind of the funny thing about baseball, right, is imagine you had this projection system, right,

[00:24:40] that could predict the average on base and slug for every single player on a team.

[00:24:45] It still wouldn't be able to predict how many runs they would score because of how that offense is sequenced or not, you know.

[00:24:51] So, that's just ball.

[00:24:53] And I was looking at George Kirby.

[00:24:54] Speaking of the run environment, I was just looking at George Kirby.

[00:24:57] 3-5-3 ERA.

[00:24:59] 1-0-4 ERA+.

[00:25:01] Like, that's kind of crazy, you know.

[00:25:04] Like, ERA looks great.

[00:25:05] ERA plus makes them look a little above average, you know.

[00:25:11] The disparity of some of these guys at home on the road is something I don't think I've ever seen before.

[00:25:17] Lyle and I have been spending a lot of time this year trying to understand why T-Mobile Park is the way it is.

[00:25:22] It's always been a good pitcher's park.

[00:25:23] But this year, for some reason, took this insane step towards, like, being the opposite of Coors Field.

[00:25:32] People, teams can't score.

[00:25:34] Opposing pitchers pitch in that park.

[00:25:36] Mariners pitchers pitch in that park.

[00:25:39] Like, how do you look at that?

[00:25:41] Like, when you try and evaluate players that, you know, pitch on the Mariners when you see that.

[00:25:47] It's really hard.

[00:25:48] There's kind of an analogous situation around the league that was interesting this year.

[00:25:52] I think in Cleveland, they removed some stands or something like that.

[00:25:58] And then they thought it created maybe, like, some sort of jet stream out to right field.

[00:26:01] And so, obviously, the team hit really well this year.

[00:26:04] And so, it's interesting how, like, subtle tweaks even to a ballpark.

[00:26:08] I don't know if there were any at T-Mobile this year like that.

[00:26:12] But even subtle tweaks to a ballpark can really affect that run environment in meaningful ways.

[00:26:16] You know, I think it's – there's not really a one-size-fits-all approach, I think, to assessing a player based on park factors.

[00:26:24] I think some players are naturally going to find, you know, some ballparks advantageous and some aren't.

[00:26:29] But so, I just think the best advice I could give is to try to come up with more of a bespoke type analysis if someone is playing in a ballpark that deviates far enough from the normal run environment.

[00:26:40] And that goes, you know, with heavy offense and not a lot of offense.

[00:26:45] Teoscar Hernandez talked about this this year.

[00:26:47] And maybe you've followed this story.

[00:26:48] I certainly wouldn't be shocked if you have.

[00:26:50] If you have.

[00:26:51] But he said the reason he felt like he struggled in Seattle.

[00:26:55] Now, this is not something they changed this year.

[00:26:57] It's been this way forever.

[00:26:58] He just brought it to light during All-Star Week this year.

[00:27:01] He said, how bad was I slanted?

[00:27:03] I could not hit the ball inside that ballpark because it was – I felt like the mound was slanted.

[00:27:08] I felt like everything was coming at me from an angle.

[00:27:10] It just – I just couldn't hit.

[00:27:12] Do you think all – it would be weird that all of a sudden that comes to light so much this year that now all of a sudden guys can't hit.

[00:27:19] But maybe – again, maybe I'm throwing a curveball at you.

[00:27:21] But if I am, do you think it played a factor?

[00:27:24] No, I definitely think it can.

[00:27:26] I do agree with your assessment, which is, you know, like that batter's eye has been there, right?

[00:27:30] So, you know, I think maybe if you have a year like the Mariners just had where you just, you know, couldn't score enough runs,

[00:27:36] then maybe you do start to blame those things around you.

[00:27:40] You know, you say, hey, these are some pretty good players on the roster right here.

[00:27:43] You know, we've made the playoffs, you know, a couple years ago.

[00:27:45] Why isn't it happening for us now?

[00:27:47] But, yeah, I mean I remember batter's eye discussions were a thing with Willie Adamas in Tampa.

[00:27:54] You know, he had crazy home road splits all his time in Tampa.

[00:27:57] And then he gets traded to Milwaukee and all of a sudden he's this really consistent hitter.

[00:28:01] And, of course, now he's coming off this great contract here and hitting free agency.

[00:28:04] So, you know, depending on who you are, like, yeah, you can find batter's eye that works for you and batter's eye that doesn't.

[00:28:10] And that can affect your offensive output for sure.

[00:28:13] Like that, I believe, is a thesis, you know.

[00:28:16] The way TJ started this question or started this conversation, I wanted to get your thoughts on something, Bailey.

[00:28:22] Because I'm having some trust issues all of a sudden with Team WRC Plus.

[00:28:26] And you can tell me how off I am on this or not.

[00:28:28] Because we've sat here the last two years.

[00:28:30] Mariners offense in 23 ranked sixth by WRC Plus.

[00:28:34] In 2024 they ranked 12th.

[00:28:35] And like TJ said, they have this great rotation, top half offense, awful hitting environment, yet still miss the playoffs.

[00:28:42] Am I crazy for thinking there's something a little bit flawed about Team WRC Plus?

[00:28:47] Because we sit here and watch this team every night and I sit here and say, there's no way this was a top 12 offense in 24.

[00:28:54] How were they top 12?

[00:28:56] Well, that's the thing.

[00:28:57] WRC Plus is park adjusted, right?

[00:28:59] So, and we've talked about this already.

[00:29:01] It was a low offensive environment.

[00:29:03] And so, theoretically, the Mariners wouldn't need to actually hit all that well to theoretically have an above average Team WRC Plus, if that makes sense.

[00:29:12] So here's the way I put it.

[00:29:13] You know, WRC Plus, the basis of that is WOBA.

[00:29:16] WOBA is, you know, scaled to on base percentage.

[00:29:19] Usually, you know, the league average is going to be about whatever the league average on base percentage is.

[00:29:23] Let's say it's 315 or something like that this year.

[00:29:26] Well, the Mariners' WOBA this year was 303.

[00:29:29] They were 21st in WOBA, which is the basis for this WRC Plus.

[00:29:34] So I think it's just a matter of, you know, acknowledging, hey, when the runner environment is down, you know, you could have an above average WRC Plus and still not score a lot of runs because of the ballpark situation.

[00:29:47] Because they were, guess what, 21st in runs scored this year.

[00:29:50] So in that sense, it makes perfect sense.

[00:29:54] So the reasoning that you just gave there, and we talk about the flaws of some of these advanced stats, how do you sort of explain to people who are skeptical of these advanced stats that, listen, like, these stats have their role, but they're also imperfect.

[00:30:14] They're not going to give you the total answer.

[00:30:16] I think when the idea of WRC Plus was first broached to me, like, it's, the concept of it sounds great.

[00:30:23] But here we are sitting, it's like, like, the problem with this stat is, yes, it will park adjust, like, the runs created that you can get.

[00:30:32] But the Mariners on the scoreboard don't get park adjusted runs.

[00:30:36] They get real runs.

[00:30:37] And that's where, like, sort of this chasm is.

[00:30:41] So, like, does that, like, explanation there, like, that I just rambled off make sense?

[00:30:48] No, it does make sense.

[00:30:49] And I think, you know, the number one thing, and I say this as someone who creates sabermetric type content for an audience that might not otherwise encounter it.

[00:31:00] You know, it's not like I'm a fangraphs writer or something like that.

[00:31:03] Like, I brought kind of that attitude to YouTube.

[00:31:06] And so a lot of people, when they're learning about various sabermetric type stats, are learning it from me.

[00:31:12] They're learning it for the first time.

[00:31:13] And I do think when that's the case, you have a responsibility to talk about the shortcomings of certain stats.

[00:31:20] You know, I don't speak, you know, too declaratively about some stats.

[00:31:25] I try to address their weaknesses and their strengths.

[00:31:28] For example, if I were discussing FIP, right, fielding independent pitching, I would say, hey, you know, an individual pitcher doesn't have as much contact or as much, excuse me, control over what happens to their batted balls as a hitter does.

[00:31:44] But they still have some control.

[00:31:45] There are ground ball pitchers for a reason, for example.

[00:31:49] There are pitchers who consistently allow low average exit velocities for a reason.

[00:31:53] So maybe, you know, just viewing everything through the lens of the three true outcomes isn't always great if you're, you know, an outlier with regards to what happens to your balls in play.

[00:32:02] So I think that's, that is probably the number one responsibility of someone who has to talk about these stats on a daily basis is you have to acknowledge their shortcomings.

[00:32:11] And you can't say that these are, you know, irrefutable truths.

[00:32:14] These are just, you know, it's just information.

[00:32:17] That's one piece of vocabulary I always say is, you know, you can complain about analytics.

[00:32:21] But if you replace the word analytics with information, you know, where does that get you?

[00:32:26] Right.

[00:32:27] I've always said that about analytics.

[00:32:29] If the people that don't understand it, I feel like use it as such a crutch word.

[00:32:33] It's their way of trying to get out of having to understand it because they don't want to understand it and they use it as a crutch word.

[00:32:39] You hear it on football broadcasts all the time.

[00:32:41] Oh, well, the analytics say to go for it here as if they're using it in a negative connotation.

[00:32:45] But exactly to your point, it just paints a further picture of who somebody is.

[00:32:50] There are still people out there, believe it or not, that complain about Cal Raleigh's batting average when you factor in everything else he does.

[00:32:57] Like, is it kind of crazy we're still in 2024 and people complain about analytics?

[00:33:03] It is, but I don't blame them to some extent.

[00:33:06] It's because the battle for analytics has already won, you know?

[00:33:11] Like, that's the basis of how front offices and teams conduct themselves these days.

[00:33:17] So maybe to the average fan watching at home and, you know, they don't like it when the manager yanks their favorite pitcher too early in the game or, you know, they don't like it when, you know, a lefty masher gets pinch hit against a lefty.

[00:33:33] You know, I think, though, that the battle is ultimately won.

[00:33:38] So it's almost futile, right?

[00:33:41] You have to embrace it.

[00:33:42] You have to learn about it or else you're probably just going to be frustrated as a fan.

[00:33:47] Why, if you were to make your pitch to someone who's not already in on sort of the content you make and, you know, the message and the stats you try to bring out to people, like, what is your pitch of why these things are important?

[00:34:01] Because, again, your favorite team is ran on those concepts, you know?

[00:34:05] It's not about loving it necessarily.

[00:34:07] It's about understanding it.

[00:34:08] And I think a big thing and a big reason why the videos connect with people is because even though I maybe have my own sense of humor, there's not – it's not that smarmy, you know?

[00:34:18] It's not like that holier-than-thou approach to sabermetric-type stats.

[00:34:23] The name of the channel is Foolish Baseball.

[00:34:25] And it's actually – I don't talk about this a lot.

[00:34:28] It's a play on the Keith Law book, Smart Baseball.

[00:34:31] And I just wanted to do a brand of talking about these baseball sabermetric concepts that aren't necessarily, like, patting myself on the back about how smart I am and how smart I'm doing baseball.

[00:34:43] So, you know, if – one thing I would pitch to it is you don't even have to love it.

[00:34:48] It just probably enhances the fan experience to have some degree of understanding as to why your manager is making this decision in this moment.

[00:35:01] I want to get to a couple of Mariners-specific things with you before we talk a little bit more about your channel.

[00:35:06] Just as a general overview, when you see this Mariners team, the past Mariners team, let's say, like, the past three, because I think that's been the real core of what this current Mariners regime is, what do you see when you look at them?

[00:35:20] I think it starts at the top with the ownership.

[00:35:23] You know, the – was it the vice president or whoever who got in trouble when he was on the Zoom with the roadery club?

[00:35:30] Yeah.

[00:35:31] He kind of – he did what you're not supposed to do when you're in an ownership group, and that's – you said the quiet part out loud, right?

[00:35:38] He was bragging to his buddies.

[00:35:39] But what he was ultimately saying is not that different to how a lot of people in the administration of these clubs feel about player payroll, for example.

[00:35:49] And the problem is I think when they've gone out and spent or gone out and tried to get bats, it hasn't always worked.

[00:35:55] We've talked about Teoscar.

[00:35:57] Mitch Garver was a big signing for them that didn't really seem to work out this year.

[00:36:01] And, you know, a couple years ago, maybe two, three years ago, I felt really good about this rebuild.

[00:36:07] And actually, one reason why I felt like it was good is because a lot of rebuilds – and they're probably all like this to be realistic – but you need to bring in supplementary talent.

[00:36:17] You may have a stacked farm system, but that stacked farm system isn't going to get you there.

[00:36:20] You need to acquire the right mix of veteran-type players in order to push yourself over the top and to become a consistent playoff team, right?

[00:36:30] Cubs did it by signing a bunch of pitching.

[00:36:33] John Lester, guys like that.

[00:36:34] You know, Orioles this year went out, grabbed Corbin Burns.

[00:36:38] You know, my Braves have – you know, a lot of veteran pitching, you know, pushed them over the top in like 2021.

[00:36:45] So, you know, the Mariners haven't necessarily succeeded in that.

[00:36:49] They've succeeded with regards to the player development side of things.

[00:36:54] I mean, Julio is a star.

[00:36:55] The rotation is almost entirely homegrown with the exception of Castillo.

[00:37:01] So, yeah, I just think you're looking for those supplementary pieces right now.

[00:37:06] And they're able to develop it on the pitching side.

[00:37:09] I think they've done so well with a lot of like waiver claims and guys that were DFA'd like in their bullpen year after year, it feels like.

[00:37:18] I think maybe even earlier in the DePoto administration they had success with guys like, you know, like Austin Nola, Dylan Moore, like those kind of guys almost.

[00:37:27] But it's like, you know, that seems to be the difficulty at the moment.

[00:37:34] That's at least my assessment of the situation.

[00:37:37] So, on that note, if it were up to you, who's some of that supplementary talent the Mariners could bring in this winner that would be a perfect fit that could help get this team over the top?

[00:37:49] I love Willie Adamas.

[00:37:51] You know, Crawford is there.

[00:37:53] I understand that.

[00:37:55] He has expressed that he would be willing to play other positions in the infield.

[00:37:59] I don't necessarily feel like he should have to do that.

[00:38:01] He's a very good defensive shortstop.

[00:38:03] Maybe they could find a better fit for Crawford somewhere else in the infield.

[00:38:07] But, yeah, that's a guy that I look at.

[00:38:09] You know, yeah, they just need bats.

[00:38:12] And it's – I wish it could be as simple as saying, oh, they need to sign the right bats.

[00:38:17] They need to sign – you know, a guy who's going to be a good offensive force for them.

[00:38:20] Well, you know, they try that year after year.

[00:38:22] But, I mean, I think they've just got to keep plugging away at it, to be honest with you, because they're on the cusp of being a pretty consistent playoff team, and yet they just haven't been able to make it over that hump.

[00:38:32] And one thing is you can really see teams stagnate at this point in the competitive cycle.

[00:38:37] I think the Blue Jays right now are a very good example of a team that has stagnated despite having what was ostensibly a pretty impressive young core with guys like Guerrero and Bichette and then even some really good pitching as well.

[00:38:51] You know, a team that is on the cusp of being that perennial playoff team and yet isn't.

[00:38:57] I'm glad you brought up Willie Adamas because, A, I think he is a fit for what the Mariners need.

[00:39:02] Cost-wise, he's not.

[00:39:03] But in terms of the age, in terms of the position, in terms of what the Mariners need, he absolutely is.

[00:39:08] But I had a question when we're analyzing Willie Adamas last week and we're trying to – historically, he's a good defender, a shortstop.

[00:39:17] But this year he had an abnormally bad season by defensive runs saved even though the outs above average stayed steady for the most part.

[00:39:26] Why are there sometimes such a variance in stats, like especially defensive stats?

[00:39:31] Yeah, one thing I really looked at this year on my channel is I did a study of Adam Dunn's defense just to look at an outlier defensively in the negative sense.

[00:39:40] And defensive runs saved was the metric that had him at like negative 43 in a season, which is one of those stats that seems so bad it's impossible.

[00:39:49] And I remember going back and watching game film.

[00:39:53] Defensive runs saved, I think at this point in the process, is a stat I don't really look at that much.

[00:39:59] I think stat cast is probably giving you the most accurate look.

[00:40:03] There is at least some attempt at transparency in the stat cast fielding metric land because at the very least you can look up like the catch probability of an individual play.

[00:40:13] And even if you disagree with it, it's still there.

[00:40:16] There's so much of this info, especially with regards to the defensive metrics, it's just like a black box, you know.

[00:40:23] Baseball info solutions will sell you DRS info if you work for a team or a publication maybe.

[00:40:29] But otherwise, it's just like a leaderboard that you go look at and there's just no context to it at all.

[00:40:35] And I think one thing that causes a difference between defensive runs saved and maybe a stat like stat cast outs above average is a context neutral versus context dependent stat.

[00:40:46] So, for example, in defensive runs saved land, if you make a really bad mistake that directly, you know, affects the run probability or, you know, allows two runs to score maybe because you let a ball go through your legs in the infield or something like that.

[00:41:00] Like that affects you more negatively than it would in terms of stat cast outs above average because what stat cast outs above average does is it just looks at each play and it just looks at basically the zone where you're at.

[00:41:14] So, for example, if you're a shortstop, right, it just says, okay, a ball that's misplayed in the shortstop zone on average leads to this.

[00:41:20] That's probably more predictive for the future if you, you know, unless you totally buy into the idea that clutch defense exists as a concept.

[00:41:29] I'm not sure if I do.

[00:41:30] I just think, you know, you play good defense or you don't.

[00:41:33] You're a good defender or you aren't.

[00:41:33] So, yeah, I mean, I think, you know, again, this goes back to my previous point, which is that, you know, as someone who explains these statistics, you have an obligation to explain their shortcomings.

[00:41:44] I mean, the fact of the matter is the defensive metrics are lagging far behind the offensive metrics in general.

[00:41:50] You know, you can get a pretty good idea of what a player is going to do for you offensively if you look at their average on base and slug or their WRC plus or whatever.

[00:41:57] But defensively year to year, there's a lot of inconsistency.

[00:42:00] And it's because these metrics, you know, defense hasn't been solved yet.

[00:42:03] And I think that's kind of a good thing.

[00:42:05] I think it's a good thing that there are elements of baseball that are really imprecise measurements for.

[00:42:10] Is that due to lack of volume of just defensive opportunities as opposed to the 700 at bats you'll get in a season?

[00:42:17] It could be.

[00:42:18] I mean, there are some positions that, you know, you might on average have two or three batted balls hit at you per game, you know, and you might take three or four at bats.

[00:42:27] So, yeah, I mean, I think that's definitely an element of it for sure.

[00:42:30] And a lot of a lot of defensive plays are routine and a lot of defensive plays are impossible.

[00:42:38] And there's not that many defensive plays that are in between, even though that's where you can really tell who's a valuable defender and who's not.

[00:42:46] One of many reasons we're excited to have you on, Bailey, and me in particular, is we've got somebody on the podcast that is as big of, if not a bigger fan of Ryan Wu than I am.

[00:42:57] So you don't need to tell me, or sorry, you don't need me to tell you why he's so good.

[00:43:01] You tweet out your memes every time he takes the mound and you watch a ton of his starts.

[00:43:05] But I'll just throw the question to you and let you go.

[00:43:08] Why do you love him so much?

[00:43:10] Because I think it's just he's a testament to player development and I think specifically pitch modeling being a successful thing.

[00:43:19] Because what's so fascinating about Brian Wu is he was bad in college.

[00:43:22] He was just he was legitimately bad in college.

[00:43:24] You look up his college stats.

[00:43:26] It's not like he was playing like a big power five conference either.

[00:43:28] I can't remember what school it was, but it's not.

[00:43:30] Cal Poly.

[00:43:30] Cal Poly.

[00:43:31] There you go.

[00:43:31] And so what's so fascinating about it is he gets drafted by the Mariners, right?

[00:43:36] And he's like, what, like a fifth rounder or something like that?

[00:43:39] Sixth rounder.

[00:43:40] And I was reading the article maybe just a couple months ago.

[00:43:44] Someone in the front office was like, if we did, you know, if I had my say, I would have drafted him first overall.

[00:43:50] Like, that's crazy, right?

[00:43:52] That was the director of pitching.

[00:43:53] So he's on the big league staff.

[00:43:55] His name's Trent Blank.

[00:43:55] That story was told on the broadcast a while back once.

[00:43:58] He said, yeah, if it was up to me, I'd draft Brian Wu number one overall.

[00:44:01] And it's funny.

[00:44:02] I'm not saying he's 100% right, but you do look back at some of those pitchers that were drafted in 2021.

[00:44:08] There's a lot of guys that win that first round where I'd say, yeah, I'd take Brian Wu over him, over him, over him, etc.

[00:44:15] Yeah.

[00:44:15] And again, it was mostly just based on the pitch modeling.

[00:44:20] Like, for him, what makes him special is the release point.

[00:44:24] You know, it's a very low release point.

[00:44:26] It is like Castillo.

[00:44:28] Castillo also is a righty with a lower release point.

[00:44:30] But what's interesting is, and StatCast has just released some data on this, is the arm angle data.

[00:44:37] So you can talk about release point.

[00:44:38] But the thing about, you know, Castillo is it's hard to show in podcasting on video.

[00:44:45] But his elbow, if I can explain it, is more like horizontal to the ground.

[00:44:51] And so that's why he's throwing, you know, like really nasty sinker, you know, gyro, you know, gyro-y type breaking balls too.

[00:45:00] Wu, he gets his elbow so low that his hand is like above his elbow.

[00:45:05] And that, you know, can give him some like maybe more induced vertical break or something like that.

[00:45:09] And so it's just, it really messes with hitters when you have a guy coming at you from a lower release point who can really elevate that fastball.

[00:45:16] And that's really the basis for what he does.

[00:45:17] Because both his fastballs, the four-seamer and the sinker, are just downright nasty and some of the best that any starting pitcher in the league throws.

[00:45:25] What's crazy about him too, I would say, is, look, his rookie year, you saw the stuff and you saw how special it could be.

[00:45:32] But he had a pretty typical year for a rookie where he had his ups and his downs and it was the most innings he'd ever thrown.

[00:45:37] All of a sudden, the guy comes back in year two.

[00:45:39] He doesn't walk anybody.

[00:45:41] You walk less guys than George Kirby.

[00:45:43] So I'll throw it back to you again.

[00:45:46] What is his ceiling?

[00:45:47] Am I crazy to say this guy can win a Cy Young?

[00:45:50] No, I don't think you're crazy at all.

[00:45:51] I mean, he's going to have to show a Kirby-like dedication to that efficiency and to that not walking people.

[00:46:00] Because I think that's how you get the volume necessary to win a Cy Young award.

[00:46:03] You probably need to throw 180, 190 innings to do that today's MLB.

[00:46:07] Wu, of course, you know, was a little off and on with some of the injury scares this year.

[00:46:11] And so that might be the thing that would prevent him from doing so.

[00:46:13] But no, I mean, I think the ceiling is insanely high on him.

[00:46:16] It's there in the pitch modeling.

[00:46:18] It's just about can he harness it and can he put together like that one monster season?

[00:46:22] Everyone does love Kirby's control.

[00:46:24] And Kirby has been just wildly productive since debuting a couple seasons ago.

[00:46:30] But I'm interested to hear what you think when you say you want to see that full season dedicated to just overly pounding the strike zone for Brian Wu.

[00:46:40] I feel like Kirby ran into a problem this year where, you know, he didn't walk guys, but he almost threw the ball in the zone too much.

[00:46:47] And it hadn't really caught up to him until this year where he had the worst month of his career in August.

[00:46:51] And he actually gave up the most hits of any pitcher in the American League.

[00:46:55] So, like, where's the balance there for what Kirby and Wu should be doing?

[00:47:00] Does that mean bringing the walk rate from up from 3% to 5% and throwing X amount more out of the strike zone?

[00:47:09] Yeah, you know, it's interesting.

[00:47:10] It may be there are ways if you get your stuff right, you can throw the ball out of the strike zone and still not walk anybody.

[00:47:17] And I think one of the best examples of this, at least in a smaller sample, was what Bieber did in 2020.

[00:47:22] And I think Bieber is someone who at least prime Bieber compares a lot to Kirby.

[00:47:27] They have that same dedication, right?

[00:47:30] Well, Bieber in 2020, you know, this was his short season, Cy Young year.

[00:47:35] He threw the ball in the zone like a third of the time.

[00:47:39] And he only walked, let's see, I've got the numbers right here, 21 batters in 77 innings.

[00:47:44] And it was just because if he threw the, he was throwing the breaking ball in the right spot and getting the chase.

[00:47:49] I think maybe, you know, as much as I love the efficiency, maybe a 0-2 waste pitch isn't such a bad thing if you've got a breaking ball that can be respected.

[00:48:01] But yeah, I mean, I generally am a proponent of pounding the zone, to be honest with you.

[00:48:06] If you look at pitchers that pound the zone, maybe there's a survivorship bias to that, where if you pound the zone, you probably have an above average fastball to begin with.

[00:48:15] And so you're going to succeed in the zone relative to other pitchers.

[00:48:18] But yeah, I mean, I think generally if you just look across the league, pitchers that pound the zone, they tend to do well.

[00:48:23] They tend to get through a lot of innings.

[00:48:24] And I think there's a lot of value in that.

[00:48:26] Now, this might be a video idea for your second channel.

[00:48:30] I would imagine at some point you'll do something about some of the wonkiest pitches in baseball.

[00:48:36] Have you seen Bryce Miller's splitter and what it does?

[00:48:40] Yes, a brand new splitter, by the way, that he worked on this year.

[00:48:44] And I guess that's sort of the new trendy pitch like maybe Sweeper was a year or two ago.

[00:48:48] So, and it has the unique action where it essentially acts as like a mix between a split and a knuckleball.

[00:48:57] And even though it was his first year throwing it, I think he had the best run value in all of baseball on that pitch.

[00:49:04] So, there's to plant that in for you.

[00:49:06] I mean, it's just incredible what these guys can develop in this Mariners rotation.

[00:49:10] Like seriously, everyone in that rotation is so unique and so different in each their own way.

[00:49:17] Like Brian Wu and Logan Gilbert are so different.

[00:49:21] But it doesn't matter because the results are just so drastically similar in terms of what they do.

[00:49:31] Are there any other teams that can match the uniqueness and the development of different types of pitchers?

[00:49:39] Like we've seen the Mariners do the last few years.

[00:49:41] Yeah, I think, you know, the Rays have had some pretty impressive runs in that regard.

[00:49:46] You know, it's apples and oranges.

[00:49:49] But of course, the Dodgers have, you know, had plenty of pitching development successes of their own.

[00:49:54] But yeah, I think the Mariners would, of course, rank pretty highly in that.

[00:49:58] I was singing the praises of their pitching development.

[00:50:00] I remember, you know, last year in particular.

[00:50:03] What's funny is, you know, you allude to, you know, there are some pretty unique profiles in their starting rotation.

[00:50:11] You know, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo are two very different pitchers.

[00:50:15] I will say that there is an emphasis with them on the vertical approach angle outlier guys.

[00:50:20] That is something that we see across the board, whether it's, you know, a really steep one or a really flat one.

[00:50:25] I think that's something they focus on.

[00:50:28] I don't know if you feel like they've gotten away from it, but it felt like there were a lot of, like, sweeper guys in the bullpen, especially last couple years, where they've had some success with that, maybe upping the rate of that.

[00:50:39] So there can still be some sameness with them.

[00:50:42] But yeah, I mean, I think they're one of the top organizations in terms of pitching development.

[00:50:46] And the fact they have guys like Wu and Miller, who they also drafted, who are, you know, breaking into the rotation, becoming legit pieces, really speaks to the organization's success as a whole.

[00:50:57] Just to follow up on the vertical approach angle part, just for our listeners who might not be totally tuned in on what that is.

[00:51:02] It's essentially the example you would use for that is Brian Wu, right?

[00:51:05] Just throwing it so low, but the batter thinks it's just sort of exploding up while it's really just kind of staying on plane.

[00:51:15] Yeah, exactly.

[00:51:16] So in that sense, that's called a flat approach angle because, you know, your pitcher, you're a tall man, you're standing on a hill, so you're releasing the ball generally higher than where it ends up going.

[00:51:29] In Wu's case, he releases it low and it ends up high.

[00:51:33] And because, you know, for hitter, a slight uppercut is actually more of a contact swing because that keeps you on plane with the ball more.

[00:51:39] The fact that the approach angle is flat in this case does lead to more swing and miss.

[00:51:45] Which is crazy, the drastic difference between the two, like TJ was saying.

[00:51:49] Just to contextualize it for people listening one more time here, Logan Gilbert gets right on top of you.

[00:51:53] His extension's crazy.

[00:51:54] He doesn't have that crazy low release angle, but fastball rise.

[00:51:58] Wu's a little smaller.

[00:51:59] He releases it from the crazy angle, but he does have the crazy fastball rise, which is just another way that makes them very different.

[00:52:04] Bailey, I want to ask a little bit more about you for people that either are getting to know you for the first time or have watched you for years and just want to get to know more about you and the awesome channel that you've created over the years.

[00:52:16] When did you start to feel like your content was really resonating with people?

[00:52:21] Because you went zero to 100 pretty fast in terms of your rise through YouTube and baseball YouTube.

[00:52:25] When did you really start to see it resonate with people?

[00:52:28] Yeah, zero to 100 really fast.

[00:52:30] I mean, and I don't think that's necessarily typical.

[00:52:33] I think a lot of people plug away for years and they don't necessarily have this instant aha moment.

[00:52:40] It just may be something that progresses as they improve their craft.

[00:52:46] But, you know, when I started, it was making videos for the video game Out of the Park Baseball, which is what I would describe as a baseball GM spreadsheet simulator type game.

[00:52:57] And I still love OTP.

[00:52:59] I played some of it this year on my second channel, Foolish Bailey, in fact.

[00:53:02] And so I started doing that and, you know, it kind of ran its course.

[00:53:06] And I decided, OK, well, you know, let's let's try something different.

[00:53:10] And, you know, I made the first episode of Baseball Bits, probably two or three hundred people watched it.

[00:53:17] I made another one, probably two or three hundred people watched it.

[00:53:20] And then I made the one about Verlander, which I think is still to this day one of the videos that I'm probably most identified with.

[00:53:27] And I, you know, a lot of people tell me, hey, I've been watching since the Justin Verlander video,

[00:53:33] because within a week that video had like a hundred thousand plus views and Justin Verlander himself tweeted about it,

[00:53:41] which was very kind of him to do.

[00:53:43] And I was getting, you know, attention from even like people in the industry.

[00:53:48] And I really just, you know, from that point forward, took it seriously.

[00:53:52] And I didn't have like much of a career in the in the real world.

[00:53:57] So I think what a lot of people, when they have this breakthrough, they they have to weigh that right.

[00:54:02] They say, oh, I was I was going to be a successful accountant.

[00:54:05] But now I have this YouTube video that's doing really well.

[00:54:07] I didn't really have to necessarily make a lot of those tough decisions.

[00:54:10] So, I mean, I was basically a full time YouTuber, you know, three or four months after that happened.

[00:54:17] And then comfortably doing it maybe a year after that happened.

[00:54:20] So there was definitely a before and after moment for me.

[00:54:23] It would be that Verlander video.

[00:54:25] I got the feedback and the attention.

[00:54:27] And I didn't necessarily plan on making YouTube a career.

[00:54:32] It was just something I was doing as a hobby, something because I love baseball.

[00:54:35] But here I am and I've been doing this, you know, over five years now.

[00:54:38] And that's something I'm very proud of because I do think online creators, especially independent ones,

[00:54:44] tend to have a relatively short shelf life.

[00:54:47] So I think the fact that I'm still able to do this five, six years later, a testament to what a great fan base I've cultivated and hopefully a testament to all the hard work I've put into this thing.

[00:54:57] In case any of you haven't watched it, go over to the Foolish Baseball YouTube channel.

[00:55:02] And it's it's down there at the beginning of all the baseball bits.

[00:55:06] But it is it's a really good video highlighting an inning of Justin Verlander's MVP campaign in 2011, I believe.

[00:55:14] Why like why that inning?

[00:55:17] Like of all things like of all things to land on.

[00:55:20] Why was it that?

[00:55:23] Yeah, I mean, I definitely felt like I wanted to focus on, you know, aspects of baseball that had maybe been forgotten to some extent.

[00:55:31] And I think for me, there's always an interest in outliers.

[00:55:35] You know, no matter what I do, you could almost sum it up as, you know, pull up a leaderboard for a stat.

[00:55:40] Who's the best at it?

[00:55:41] Who's the worst?

[00:55:43] Why?

[00:55:43] You know that that's Jeff Mathis.

[00:55:45] That's Tim Lacastro.

[00:55:47] That's Rob Ross.

[00:55:48] Like those are like those are the type of videos that I'm ultimately identified with.

[00:55:51] For Verlander, the outlier is the, you know, the velocity at the end of the game that that willingness to just completely empty the tank and energy allocation, which I think is such an impressive ability for any pitcher to have.

[00:56:04] And I think it's going to probably continue to be relevant in this in this era where pitching injuries are up.

[00:56:10] And so, yeah, I mean, you know, I'd seen the video.

[00:56:14] I don't think I watched the game live or anything, but I'd seen the video over the years.

[00:56:18] And it's just one of those things that stuck with me.

[00:56:20] And, you know, one of the fun things about becoming a YouTuber or a content creator and having a platform is sometimes you discover that your brain worms, that your things that stick in the back of your head, you know, you can share those with other people, you know, and you can, you know, the same memories that you have and the same things that you obsess over.

[00:56:38] Those can be someone else's new obsession.

[00:56:40] And I think that's what happened when I put out that video.

[00:56:43] So you look at like leaderboards and stuff, which is the which is great.

[00:56:47] And I'm sure leads to a lot of the ideas you have for videos.

[00:56:50] But you put one out.

[00:56:52] I think it was two baseball bits ago where you were.

[00:56:54] You talked about baseball on HGTVs like that's on a leaderboard, right?

[00:57:00] So how do you come up with something like that?

[00:57:03] You know, I think maybe being in the in the video space, the YouTube creation space helped me in that one.

[00:57:08] I just maybe have a unique view of baseball where I just like can almost remove myself from the mechanics of the batter and the pitcher and the bases and just sort of view it almost as like an alien would view a baseball broadcast.

[00:57:24] Like like if you were watching baseball on TV, what would you think if you had no idea what was going on?

[00:57:29] And of course, you know how I present things matters to me, how I have to manipulate footage that could have been from a 16 by 9 era or a 4 by 3 era and how I, you know, I'm conscientious of that whenever I'm going through, you know, decades and decades of baseball footage.

[00:57:45] Yeah, I mean, it's just one of those things where because I've spent the last four or five, six years working with a lot of baseball footage, it's kind of always been in the back of my head like, huh, if the 4-3 looks pretty good, you're not gaining much by, you know, expanding it to a 16 by 9.

[00:58:02] And now here we are in an era of, you know, YouTube shorts and TikToks where everything is, you know, in portrait mode now.

[00:58:09] And yeah, you just think about the mechanics of a baseball broadcast more when you make baseball YouTube videos.

[00:58:17] When you started making videos, your goal was to, in your words, I think, was to fill a void in the content community from more of the general baseball stuff on YouTube versus like the fan graphs articles.

[00:58:31] Do you think there still is a void?

[00:58:34] No, I actually don't.

[00:58:35] I think it's been filled.

[00:58:37] I look at the YouTube baseball landscape, it's really strong, you know, and I'm honored if in any way, you know, people were maybe inspired by my creations to try their own.

[00:58:50] But it just seems like every day now, you know, I'll come across an interesting video from a smaller creator that I hadn't previously heard of or, you know.

[00:58:59] And so the landscape right now, yeah, I think that gap has definitely shrunk a fair amount.

[00:59:04] There's some really great stuff on baseball YouTube.

[00:59:07] It's not just the sabermetric stuff either.

[00:59:09] It's just a lot of, you know, like a lot of, you know, baseball player, like kind of lifestyle type stuff.

[00:59:16] I really admire like the baseball bat bros.

[00:59:18] What they've built is really impressive.

[00:59:20] You know, Eric Sim is someone who I've been a fan of for years and he's seen a ton of success.

[00:59:26] So, yeah, I mean, we really benefited from, for me at least personally, like entering the scene around the time when MLB was starting to get a little more lax with the copyright stuff.

[00:59:37] And so I think that definitely made a big difference.

[00:59:39] But, yeah, I mean, I think the gap has shrunk.

[00:59:42] I think there's great stuff on baseball YouTube and it's a really strong scene.

[00:59:46] And there are a lot more people participating in it than, you know, five years ago when I was getting started.

[00:59:53] Last one I've got for you, Bailey, and I'm going to give you a tough one to end it, but I want to see where you go with this.

[00:59:59] Of all the videos you've created, baseball bits you've created, do you have a top three?

[01:00:04] Have you ever thought about this at all?

[01:00:06] Like, can you rank one for us?

[01:00:08] I don't want to plant ideas into your head, but as somebody who loves the Joey Votto video, that one's up there for me.

[01:00:13] But I'm curious if you have a top three in your own head.

[01:00:16] Yeah, I guess my favorite's probably the Rod Barajas one.

[01:00:19] I think it kind of encapsulates pretty much everything I would want to do with this series.

[01:00:23] I like that there's a twist, essentially.

[01:00:26] I like the idea of having a twist, you know, a third act to the video.

[01:00:31] I'm actually quite fond of one I did recently at the beginning of this year that is called The Only Thing That Matters in Baseball.

[01:00:37] And it's about the count.

[01:00:38] It's about, you know, as in the 0-2 pitch, as in full count, as in the first pitch of the at-bat.

[01:00:44] I think that is probably the most stats-heavy video I've done in some ways.

[01:00:51] I think it's some of the most labor I've ever done on a video in some ways.

[01:00:55] And I think it just really came together well.

[01:00:57] And I think with those two videos in particular, those are ones that I make and I hope, you know,

[01:01:01] this will fundamentally change the way some person who watches this will watch a baseball game from here on out.

[01:01:07] If there's a third I could throw in there, that might be a tough one for me.

[01:01:11] I might go Tim LeCastro because people seem to really like that one.

[01:01:18] One I am really partial to is one that I did about the Yankees-Twins game.

[01:01:23] That was from 2019, the one that ended with the Aaron Hicks catch.

[01:01:28] Because I felt like, you know, we've talked about some of the stat-heavy ones.

[01:01:32] I feel like that one is a good one in the sense that I would want to show it to someone who's never watched a baseball game before.

[01:01:38] Because what it fundamentally is, is a story about a really fun baseball game in the regular season.

[01:01:45] And so that is one that stands out to me as still one of my favorites to this day.

[01:01:51] Last thing for me, Bailey, ending on an open-ended question, open-ended note.

[01:01:56] Is there a stat that you really like that you don't think is getting enough attention and that into next season, into the 2025 season, people should pay attention to more?

[01:02:06] Yeah, for me, the hitting stats, the hitting peripheral type stats, I'll shout out three.

[01:02:12] They're very basic.

[01:02:13] But I think if you look at these three stats, you can get a pretty complete picture of what type of hitter someone is.

[01:02:22] And that's going to be their barrel rate.

[01:02:24] Barrels are so important.

[01:02:26] It's crazy how much barrels correlate with home runs, how much they correlate with run scoring in general.

[01:02:32] Barrels are awesome.

[01:02:34] That's, by the way, a stat cast metric that assigns a barrel quality if you reach a certain threshold in exit velocity and launch angle.

[01:02:43] I think you can tell a lot from someone's barrel rate, their whiff rate, so how often they swing and miss per swing, and their chase rate, how often they swing at pitches outside the zone.

[01:02:53] I think a lot of times if you're looking at a hitter, you can kind of distill what they do just by looking at those three stats.

[01:03:01] Bailey, this has been awesome.

[01:03:02] To all the listeners and all the watchers, go check out his YouTube channels if you're not familiar already, Foolish Baseball and Foolish Bailey.

[01:03:09] The baseball bits are really fantastic.

[01:03:10] Go watch one.

[01:03:12] I promise you then you'll probably want to watch the rest of them as well.

[01:03:15] Bailey, this has been awesome.

[01:03:16] Thanks so much for taking some time to join us.

[01:03:18] All right.

[01:03:19] Thank you, TJ.

[01:03:19] Thank you, Lyle.

[01:03:22] We really thoroughly enjoyed that conversation with Bailey.

[01:03:25] Hopefully you guys did too.

[01:03:27] Again, if you want to go check out all of his content, which you absolutely should, you can find him everywhere.

[01:03:31] We would most recommend on YouTube at Foolish Baseball.

[01:03:35] With that, that'll just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast.

[01:03:38] You guys know the drill.

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[01:04:09] That's TJ.

[01:04:10] I'm Lyle.

[01:04:11] As always, we thank you guys for tuning in.

[01:04:13] We'll talk to you soon.