Episode 192: Can The Mariners Just Stay True To Their Word?

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 192 of the Marine Layer Podcast. It's our mailbag episode. We'll open it up and answer some of your guys' best questions. We also have a certain quote to review that some of you might have forgotten about.

[00:00:13] This show is brought to you by our friends over at Pogaccia's Pub 85. You guys have heard us say it. We'll continue to say it. It really is an awesome spot to go hang out with your friends. You want to watch some games. Seahawks have a huge one this weekend against the Vikings. You can go over there, watch with your friends, have some awesome food.

[00:00:28] You can go play some games like pool, darts. You want to watch other sports too? It's all on. There's 20 TVs in that place. College football, basketball, hockey, etc.

[00:00:37] And if you go during happy hour, there are some awesome drink specials that you won't find better deals anywhere else. It's $3 and $4 happy hour drinks. Those happy hours are 2 to 6 p.m. on Monday through Friday. Again, guys, drinks are $3 and $4. Go get your happy hour drinks over there.

[00:00:52] All of that, great time with your friends over at Pogaccia's Pub 85 in Kirkland. And a reminder before we start this show, make sure you download these podcast episodes if you're listening. If you download, make sure to review, rate and review and leave it five stars. It really does help us out if you do.

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[00:01:18] Let's get it rolling.

[00:01:32] And we welcome you to this episode of the MarineLayer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording on Wednesday evening, December 18th.

[00:01:43] Jerry and the Mariners still haven't made a move, so prediction, Lyle, which part of the Christmas holiday is he going to make a trade during?

[00:01:50] Let's say 3 o'clock in the afternoon on Christmas Day.

[00:01:56] That would actually be the best time possible.

[00:02:00] Right. It's not Christmas Eve. It's not Christmas Day dinner. It's not New Year's Eve.

[00:02:04] It's not New Year's Day when the Sun Devils are going to be playing in a playoff game.

[00:02:08] Yeah, Christmas Day in the afternoon would be pretty ideal.

[00:02:11] Even if he did 24 hours earlier, that would still kind of, I'm just thinking of my schedule, like that wouldn't be ideal.

[00:02:16] But Christmas Day, I mean, everyone's asleep. So, perfect.

[00:02:20] Well, people aren't asleep on Christmas Day.

[00:02:22] Well, sorry, asleep in a food coma because you've probably eaten, or at this point, you've already eaten Christmas.

[00:02:28] I'm just thinking how my family does eat your Christmas Day breakfast, and then you'll have leftovers from the night before for lunch.

[00:02:34] Everyone's got their toys. There's football on.

[00:02:37] And you're probably tired at this point because, for some people, they get up early to unwrap gifts.

[00:02:44] Right. Yeah, fair enough.

[00:02:46] Christmas Day afternoon wouldn't be so bad.

[00:02:48] I'd just have to call you, and you'd have to leave your ringer on your phone.

[00:02:51] Be like, hey, they just signed Yohan Mankata.

[00:02:56] I'm going back to sleep.

[00:02:58] Yeah.

[00:02:59] Yes.

[00:02:59] Correct.

[00:03:00] Are we doing an emergency podcast about this on Christmas Day?

[00:03:04] Hmm.

[00:03:05] Nope.

[00:03:06] Nope.

[00:03:07] Nope.

[00:03:07] Back to sleep.

[00:03:09] Before we get into our mailbag, Lau and I were kicking around some ideas this week on this quote.

[00:03:20] Well, yeah.

[00:03:21] Okay.

[00:03:22] We just happened to go back and read some old articles because we were looking back through this Mariners rebuild, and we really did stumble across quite a quote.

[00:03:31] Well, I'll say you brought it up.

[00:03:34] We posted a clip on Wednesday when we are today when we're recording our Wednesday episode came out today about we're talking about what strategy the Mariners take this offseason with the West looking down.

[00:03:46] They have two different paths.

[00:03:48] And then Lila has a really good line at the end of the episode.

[00:03:50] It's like, didn't they say at this point when the West is down, they were going to go for it?

[00:03:56] And they're sitting there thinking, huh?

[00:03:58] Oh, right.

[00:03:59] They did say that.

[00:04:00] Mm hmm.

[00:04:02] Where's the quote?

[00:04:03] So Lau and I did a little digging.

[00:04:05] We're curious.

[00:04:06] I know they said it.

[00:04:07] Like Lau brought it up because they did say it.

[00:04:10] They had their end of season press conference after the 2018 season, if you're thinking of the time frame when this was before they started their what they didn't like to call a rebuild, but was a rebuild in many senses.

[00:04:21] It was just a little quicker than some of the other ones in baseball.

[00:04:25] What did they exactly say?

[00:04:27] And we had to go do some digging.

[00:04:28] And well, we found it.

[00:04:30] Yeah, we found it.

[00:04:32] Oh, we found it.

[00:04:34] You know what?

[00:04:35] I'll let you do the honors and I can react because we found what they said.

[00:04:40] And I got to tell you, I do think things like this are why people in the org do not let Jerry publicly speak as much as anymore as he used to because go right ahead.

[00:04:53] Do the honors.

[00:04:53] Be my guest.

[00:04:55] So I'll do the I will do here's here's how I'm going to read this quote.

[00:04:59] I'm going to read it word for word first, and then I will do the spark notes version a little bit quicker for those of you who don't pick up on every single word.

[00:05:06] So here's a quote.

[00:05:07] I grabbed it from the Seattle Times article written in the winter of 2018 after the 2018 season.

[00:05:13] This was written by Ryan Divish.

[00:05:15] So Divish wrote in a quote from Jerry.

[00:05:17] This is all a quote from Mr.

[00:05:19] Jerry DiPoto himself.

[00:05:20] Our goal was to set ourselves to be flexible from an age, from a system and from a payroll perspective as we could in that 2021 launch.

[00:05:31] And in that I'm going to break in here.

[00:05:33] He's referencing their reasoning to reset slash rebuild.

[00:05:39] You say Kikuchi and Kyle Seeger will be the only players on our roster that are earning north of arbitration numbers at that point.

[00:05:46] That gives us incredible spending power in the free agent market at a time when some of the best players of this generation might be available in free agency.

[00:05:55] Let's have that a little bit shorter here.

[00:05:57] Jerry DiPoto looks at his old roster in 2018 and says, we need to reset.

[00:06:01] We need to get a little bit younger.

[00:06:02] That's fair.

[00:06:03] And that's exactly what they did.

[00:06:05] But the reasoning they were doing that is so they could get their roster younger.

[00:06:09] And by the time those players are peaking, he said in his words, they were going to go out there and spend on quote generational players in free agency.

[00:06:18] Lyle, have they spent on generational players in free agency?

[00:06:24] Well, let's try to recall here.

[00:06:27] There was that guy.

[00:06:28] Doesn't he play?

[00:06:29] Doesn't he do that thing where he kind of pitches, also kind of hits sometimes, right?

[00:06:34] There's somebody like that in baseball that does that, right?

[00:06:36] I'm blanking on his name.

[00:06:38] Oh, oh, Shohei, yeah.

[00:06:39] So he was a free agent at the end of 2023.

[00:06:44] And he got $700 million in free agency.

[00:06:47] He is worth every penny.

[00:06:49] That is by every definition a generational player.

[00:06:52] Am I right?

[00:06:54] You are correct.

[00:06:55] And the Mariners, per reporting by Daniel Kramer and others, balked at the money.

[00:07:02] They balked at the money.

[00:07:04] This generational player, we're going to have all this flexibility in free agency to go sign players like this.

[00:07:11] Nope, they balked at the money.

[00:07:13] Now, let's fast forward to now, Teach.

[00:07:15] Let's fast forward to now.

[00:07:15] Now, isn't there a guy in baseball who, what do they call him?

[00:07:20] They call him like modern-day Ted Williams or something like that because how great he is at the play between his ability to walk, power, bat to ball.

[00:07:27] Like, am I missing something?

[00:07:29] I know there's this really good hitter in baseball.

[00:07:31] Oh, oh, they call him Juan Soto, right?

[00:07:34] Yeah, him.

[00:07:35] So he's also really young.

[00:07:37] In fact, he hit free agency at 26 years old.

[00:07:39] He's younger than Bryce Miller.

[00:07:40] He is younger than the two of us.

[00:07:43] And Juan Soto was not on the Mariners' radar this winter.

[00:07:48] In fact, I don't know if this has been definitively reported, but I think everybody can connect the dots.

[00:07:54] Mariners didn't pick up the phone about Juan Soto.

[00:07:57] They knew it was out of their budget and didn't do it.

[00:08:02] Didn't call.

[00:08:03] Didn't pursue.

[00:08:04] Now, is that a generational player?

[00:08:06] Yes or no?

[00:08:07] Yeah, that's a generational player.

[00:08:09] Hmm.

[00:08:10] Hmm.

[00:08:10] So, back in 2018, they said when the generational players of this generation hit free agency, we'll be set up really well.

[00:08:20] Not only have they not gone after the generational players, but now you've got people in this org saying,

[00:08:28] guys like Christian Walker cost too much money.

[00:08:32] Unreal.

[00:08:33] And let me be clear while we're saying this.

[00:08:36] This is not a Jerry DePoto slander.

[00:08:38] Again, like, yes, he put the quote out there and there is a reason the Mariners probably don't let him talk as much publicly anymore.

[00:08:44] But, as we all know, you think DePoto's going out there and saying when the time is right, we're going to spend in free agency?

[00:08:51] If he didn't believe at the time that he had the green light from the people above him from ownership to do this?

[00:08:58] No, of course he thought that.

[00:09:00] He was very clearly told that.

[00:09:02] Otherwise, he wouldn't go out to the public and say it.

[00:09:04] All this stuff always leads back to ownership.

[00:09:08] So, shocker, in shocking development, they didn't keep true to their word.

[00:09:13] They pulled the wool over their fans' eyes.

[00:09:16] Well, that never happens.

[00:09:18] There's a couple different things I want to talk about around this quote.

[00:09:21] Let's start with the first thing.

[00:09:22] When you mentioned it always coming back to ownership.

[00:09:26] Because it does.

[00:09:27] Because they own the team and they're responsible for every decision and anything that happens in the organization throughout the years.

[00:09:34] Maybe, Lyle, maybe ownership did believe in 2018 that they would be able to spend for said generational player.

[00:09:42] Like, that could be a very realistic thing.

[00:09:43] The problem is, when push comes to shove and the fans are sitting here and expecting them to live up to their end of the bargain, it falls at their feet if they don't.

[00:09:54] And it'll fall at Jerry DiPoto's feet, too, because, like you said, he's the public-facing guy.

[00:09:59] He's going to face the most criticism of almost everybody because he's the one who's got to sit up there in front of a microphone and talk all the time.

[00:10:07] Though not as much anymore.

[00:10:08] But ultimately, if you go back and find this Ryan Davis article, I think we'll, how about this?

[00:10:13] We'll link it in the YouTube description.

[00:10:15] We'll link it in the podcast description as well in case you forgot about it and you don't want to go scour Google to find it.

[00:10:21] It was a really good piece by Ryan where he detailed their entire reasoning for going into a rebuild to try and put themselves in the current position they're in right now.

[00:10:30] And there was a number of notable people sitting in that meeting making decisions on this.

[00:10:36] To name a few, it was Stanton, it was Kevin Mather, it was Chris Larson, it was Jerry DiPoto, and it was Scott Service.

[00:10:44] To name, and I'm sure some others were in there as well, sitting there and making decisions on what the future looks like for this team.

[00:10:52] So it wasn't, Jerry didn't come up with this idea himself, the whole Mariners, you know, upper management sat down and came together with this plan of how this was going to work out.

[00:11:04] But still, even if everyone came up with it, it falls at the feet of the people who are ultimately most responsible for this.

[00:11:12] As we reach here in 2024, and like you said, we're talking about Christian Walker being too expensive, Ha Sung Kim being too expensive, anyone north of $10 million being expensive, that Carlos Santana is going to take a huge chunk out of your offseason budget.

[00:11:29] Oh my God.

[00:11:32] Unreal stuff. It really is.

[00:11:34] Do you want to hear the second part of this now?

[00:11:36] Yes. Oh, keep going.

[00:11:39] So now, that we know of, while they've offered two big free agent contracts that are publicly stated, right?

[00:11:47] That I think are public information.

[00:11:49] One was Robbie Ray, who they actually signed, and the other one who's Trevor Story, who decided to take the same amount from the Boston Red Sox instead.

[00:11:58] So those are the two, I wouldn't call them generational players, but very, very good players,

[00:12:03] and players that were well worth their money when the Mariners sat there and offered them those deals.

[00:12:07] And note, Lyle, those deals were offered right in that area where Jerry DiPoto says 2021 launch.

[00:12:16] I think it more circulated to 2022 launch after the pandemic kind of threw a wrench in things, and they didn't get a season of minor league development.

[00:12:25] Story didn't decide on the Mariners.

[00:12:28] Robbie Ray did.

[00:12:29] And the problem that we have arose with Robbie Ray that we've detailed and noted about is that when they made this commitment to a, again, not generational player, but a very good player,

[00:12:43] but they made a long-term big financial commitment to him, the fact that he doesn't even get halfway through his contract before being essentially salary dumped.

[00:12:53] He was hurt, and the Mariners had a lot of young pitching and maybe saw his roster spot in a more useful and cheaper sense.

[00:13:05] But nonetheless, it is a fact they saved money these next two years on Robbie Ray, and that's why they traded him away from Mitch Hanager.

[00:13:11] And that's like the result of that quote.

[00:13:14] It goes from targeting generational players in free agency, in their words, because their young players are coming to age and ready to win and ready to spend as well,

[00:13:25] to salary dumping your only big contract that you actually gave out.

[00:13:31] Let's be real here.

[00:13:33] You talk about a long-term commitment with the Robbie Ray deal.

[00:13:36] It was five years.

[00:13:38] There are a lot of guys out there that have gotten way longer contracts than that.

[00:13:42] It wasn't some eight-year deal.

[00:13:44] It was a five-year deal.

[00:13:45] Actually, it wasn't even just a five-year deal.

[00:13:48] There's an opt-out in there, too.

[00:13:50] Right.

[00:13:50] Now, Robbie's not going to take that because I'm sure Robbie and his agent thought, well, if he pitches great through the first three years, he can opt out and hit the market again.

[00:13:58] He's not doing that.

[00:14:00] He is keeping that money and has opted into that contract with the Giants.

[00:14:04] But yeah, exactly.

[00:14:05] The Mariners gave themselves an out, and Robbie gave himself an out in that contract.

[00:14:09] So it wasn't even that long.

[00:14:11] This is what's crazy.

[00:14:13] And this, I mean, well, this is all crazy.

[00:14:15] But the fact that the two guys they've given big money to since this rebuild really started, aside from Julio, Julio was homegrown in the organization, was given an extension of mega money in his rookie year, etc.

[00:14:33] The two guys they've given real money to, Robbie Ray, who was here for two years, pitched for one, missed basically the entire second year for Tommy John, and then they traded him away.

[00:14:44] The other, Luis Castillo, who they traded for and extended, now is pitched into two years of his new contract, and there's reports that he's going to get dealt out of town this winter.

[00:14:56] So if you're a free agent, part of free agency is not only getting your money, not only settling into a place that you really want to play, but knowing you are going to stay there.

[00:15:07] A bunch of these guys have families.

[00:15:08] A bunch of these guys have to move.

[00:15:10] A bunch of these guys want to know, this is where I'm going to spend the rest of my time in my career, most of it.

[00:15:15] We're going to stay here.

[00:15:17] We're going to be happy here.

[00:15:19] We want to be here, etc.

[00:15:21] Well, if the Mariners are going to build up this reputation that every guy they give big money to, they're just going to turn around and trade halfway through their contract.

[00:15:31] How are other free agents going to be intrigued by that and say, yeah, let's go there, along with all the other things the Mariners have to battle to get these free agents to town to begin with?

[00:15:41] The weather, the park, the reputation of the franchise, etc.

[00:15:45] A lot of good points there, Lyle.

[00:15:47] I even think of an example today.

[00:15:49] It's not a free agency decision, but it highlights the decisions the players make and some of the power they allow themselves in their contracts.

[00:15:59] Nolan Arenado today said no to the Houston Astros.

[00:16:03] The Houston Astros.

[00:16:04] A good organization.

[00:16:06] He still said no because he didn't want to go there.

[00:16:09] So if the Astros have this reputation that's good and really good players like Nolan Arenado, who have the power because of their contract, decide, well, I don't really want to go there.

[00:16:21] It's a hard sell.

[00:16:23] It is such a hard sell.

[00:16:25] And we're going to talk about every single offseason on the boundaries that the Mariners have created for themselves and the boundaries that are out of their control when it comes to convincing players to come play here.

[00:16:37] It stinks.

[00:16:40] And I think circling back this quote and wrapping it up a little bit, I think there's, like you said, there is a definite reason why Jerry DiPoto does not talk all that much anymore.

[00:16:52] It's so he doesn't say things like this because he's essentially making a false promise to the fans who have been patient throughout this rebuild, who have all they wanted to all Seattle Mariner fans want to see is a winner.

[00:17:08] They've never had a consistent winner.

[00:17:11] Just how, how does it, they talk about winning for like a decade straight Mariner fans in 47 complete seasons.

[00:17:18] I've never had that, not even close.

[00:17:21] Also, the reason spending has become such a prominent conversation, well, it's become prominent over the last three or four years.

[00:17:29] This offseason specifically, why is, why it is as important as ever that they go and get one of these guys?

[00:17:35] Because, number one, even if you break your promise that you decided to put out there saying you're going to go get generational players and spend on generational players and haven't done that.

[00:17:46] Like, let's put that aside for a second.

[00:17:48] The guys people are asking the Mariners to sign are, one, not generational players.

[00:17:53] And two, don't cost that much.

[00:17:56] Christian Walker is going to get like three for $60 million.

[00:17:59] Anthony Santander is going to get four for $90 or five for $110 if he gets the five-year deal.

[00:18:04] These are not crazy contracts.

[00:18:07] And the Mariners won't even pay that, which is insane because, again, these are not the guys that are supposed to be out of anybody's price range.

[00:18:15] If Juan Soto is, Juan Soto is.

[00:18:18] Christian Walker, paired with this, right?

[00:18:21] I don't think there's a team out there that is trading a bat to the Mariners that makes them meaningfully better and taking prospects in return.

[00:18:32] Which teams in baseball would be okay with a prospect return right now?

[00:18:35] The White Sox?

[00:18:36] They have nothing to trade.

[00:18:37] I don't want Luis Robert.

[00:18:38] He strikes out too much.

[00:18:39] He's always injured.

[00:18:40] I'm totally out on that, and I think most people are too.

[00:18:42] The Marlins?

[00:18:43] They don't have anything.

[00:18:44] The Rockies?

[00:18:44] You want to argue for Ryan McMahon?

[00:18:46] Even if you do, like, how much better does that really make you?

[00:18:51] And I don't know outside of those three teams who else is really taking prospects.

[00:18:54] So here are your options, Mariners.

[00:18:56] You're either going to have to trade out of this rotation the very strength and backbone of your team that you built up over the last four years because you're too cheap to just sign the bats, or you just sign the bats.

[00:19:07] Sign the fucking bats.

[00:19:09] Like, these are your options this offseason.

[00:19:11] You cannot trade prospects for bats.

[00:19:14] The trade does not exist.

[00:19:15] It's not out there.

[00:19:16] No team is going to take it.

[00:19:17] So sign the bats.

[00:19:18] This is why this winter specifically, spending on these free agents is so critical.

[00:19:24] And then they come out and say, hey, we're like 20 minutes into the pot, and we haven't said it yet.

[00:19:27] So let's say it.

[00:19:28] They come out and say spending is not a smart strategy.

[00:19:33] Even though they said six years earlier it was.

[00:19:36] Wow.

[00:19:37] And that they would.

[00:19:38] Here's my ask before we get into this mailbag because we do have a bunch of really good mailbag questions to get to.

[00:19:44] This applies across any business, any forum, any sport, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

[00:19:51] There have been multiple instances of this today to talk about promises.

[00:19:55] Don't make promises you can't keep.

[00:19:57] Just don't do it.

[00:19:59] Because when it gets put on the record, then people like Lyle and I can just Google it and look it up and be like, what the hell?

[00:20:08] Yeah, we can Google it, circle back to it six years later, come on our podcast, and start dropping F-bombs about it, which we've now done.

[00:20:15] This is why the Freezing Cold Takes Twitter account exists.

[00:20:19] Should we send them a DM about this?

[00:20:21] Oh, boy.

[00:20:22] Could you imagine if this gets out on Freezing Cold Takes?

[00:20:25] That would be hilarious.

[00:20:26] That would be really good.

[00:20:28] Oh, that would be hilarious.

[00:20:30] Yeah.

[00:20:30] Come on, man.

[00:20:33] This stupid charade has gone on long enough up in the ownership group.

[00:20:38] Just spend on a couple of bats.

[00:20:41] It's not even Juan Soto.

[00:20:42] You can't afford Christian Walker?

[00:20:45] Get out of here.

[00:20:46] If you can't afford Christian Walker, then maybe you need to do a lot of reevaluation.

[00:20:54] Ready for the mailbag?

[00:20:55] Yes.

[00:20:56] Hey, by the way, if you're listening to this, you're either listening really early in the morning when we are currently on 710 Seattle Sports, hosting Brock and Salk, or you're listening later after the show's done.

[00:21:07] So either go listen live if you're listening in the morning.

[00:21:10] We'll be on the air.

[00:21:11] Or go listen to the podcast, too, because we will be on from 6 to 10 a.m.

[00:21:16] Filling in, talking Mariners, talking Seahawks, doing a bunch of stuff.

[00:21:19] And we'll be talking about this.

[00:21:20] Oh, we will be talking about this.

[00:21:23] So tune in.

[00:21:25] Let's get to the mailbag.

[00:21:26] Well, first question comes from Ian.

[00:21:28] He sends us a reply on Twitter.

[00:21:31] And his question is, if you were to pick one of these guys for the Mariners, Gleyber Torres or Haesung Kim?

[00:21:39] Man.

[00:21:40] Tough call if you've listened to any of my takes about Haesung Kim.

[00:21:44] Yeah, it's Gleyber Torres.

[00:21:46] I'll say it again.

[00:21:47] I'll beat it into the ground.

[00:21:49] I'll say it a million times.

[00:21:50] I don't care.

[00:21:51] Haesung Kim is a double-A bat.

[00:21:52] That's what Korea is.

[00:21:53] That's what the KBO is.

[00:21:55] And when you have guys like Jung-Hoo Lee, who had a 900 OPS in the KBO, come over and struggle, granted, in a shortened season because he got injured,

[00:22:03] it's not a vote of confidence in other KBO bats coming over here and having success, and certainly not immediate success.

[00:22:11] Do I think Haesung Kim's even going to be a 100 WRC-plus hitter, especially in year one or two?

[00:22:17] No, I don't.

[00:22:18] I think he's going to be below that.

[00:22:20] So if that's the case, I have no interest in the Mariners spending any real money on him, even if he's supposed to be a really good defender.

[00:22:27] Gleyber Torres has been there, done that.

[00:22:29] I'm not saying he's a superstar the way he was projected to be when he was a prospect.

[00:22:32] He's a good player.

[00:22:34] At his best, he can be a 115, 120 WRC-plus hitter and be a two-hitter in your lineup, be a six-hitter in your lineup.

[00:22:40] He'd be a valuable piece if you get Pete Gleyber Torres.

[00:22:43] So if I had to pick between the two, yeah, it's Gleyber Torres.

[00:22:45] Gleyber struggled a bit on both offense and defense this past year.

[00:22:49] But even if you go back to 2023, he had a 120 WRC-plus at the major league level.

[00:22:56] Haesung Kim this past year in 2024 had a 118 WRC-plus in the KBO.

[00:23:01] I think that answers that question.

[00:23:03] Gleyber sucks on defense.

[00:23:05] That's absolutely true.

[00:23:06] He's not a perfect offensive player.

[00:23:08] He might be a little bit of a Yankee Stadium merchant.

[00:23:11] If he came to Seattle, probably wouldn't have as much power as he would have in New York.

[00:23:15] But you know what?

[00:23:16] Even at the price, given what the Mariners need, got to do what you got to do at this point.

[00:23:22] It's a really, really easy decision for me.

[00:23:25] Gleyber Torres, please and thank you.

[00:23:27] His contract, I will say, the projections I've seen for Gleyber is a little high.

[00:23:33] It's a lot of money.

[00:23:36] Read it out.

[00:23:38] It's $18 million a year for at least five.

[00:23:41] That's a lot.

[00:23:42] I don't think that's happening.

[00:23:45] Obviously not.

[00:23:47] But it's crazy to see Gleyber Torres getting $100-plus million.

[00:23:53] I don't think that's going to happen.

[00:23:54] Especially because Anthony Santander might not even get $100 million.

[00:23:57] We'll see.

[00:23:58] And Gleyber, like you said, he's not a great defender.

[00:24:01] I know people might argue, well, Santander doesn't play much defense.

[00:24:04] Well, neither does Gleyber Torres.

[00:24:05] He plays one position and he doesn't play it all that well.

[00:24:07] But I would take the odds of Perry Hill working with Gleyber Torres at second base and taking his bat

[00:24:13] rather than having somebody who can play some good defense and Haesung Kim that might be an 85 WRC-plus hitter in the big leagues.

[00:24:18] The Haesung Kim might just be Josh Rojas.

[00:24:23] That's who I think he is, is Josh Rojas, which if that's the case, you need an upgraded offense.

[00:24:29] So go get Gleyber.

[00:24:31] Right.

[00:24:32] Okay.

[00:24:33] Let's get to our second question here.

[00:24:35] I want to make sure I get the name right.

[00:24:36] Speaking of Josh Rojas.

[00:24:38] Yeah.

[00:24:38] Speaking of Josh Rojas, Jeremy sent us a question.

[00:24:42] This was also on Twitter.

[00:24:42] He said, why is the second best war third baseman a free agent and not a Mariner?

[00:24:49] He puts in parentheses 2.9, which is this player's projected war online for 2025.

[00:24:54] He says, oh yeah.

[00:24:55] And he would be the third best war at second base of guys on the free agent market.

[00:25:01] Now, he didn't list the name.

[00:25:03] We are assuming here he's talking about Josh Rojas.

[00:25:07] So if we get it wrong, Jeremy, you can let us know.

[00:25:10] We apologize.

[00:25:10] But we are assuming you are talking about Josh Rojas.

[00:25:12] So that is the question.

[00:25:14] And because Josh Rojas was a Mariner entering the offseason and then they non-tendered him.

[00:25:20] And it makes that makes the most sense.

[00:25:22] Here's why Josh Rojas is not a Mariner.

[00:25:24] Because from May 15th to the end of the season, he had a 67 WRC plus.

[00:25:29] That is exactly why.

[00:25:32] Which, by the way, is 28 percentage points below the league average third baseman when it comes to offense.

[00:25:39] The offense at third base is down across the league.

[00:25:42] And yet Josh Rojas went way under that.

[00:25:46] They just literally look.

[00:25:47] Look at the Mariners infield.

[00:25:49] They need offensive production somewhere on that infield.

[00:25:54] And Josh Rojas wasn't exactly setting the bar that high to make it feel like even with his really good defense, he needs to be on this roster next season.

[00:26:04] At first base, it's a question mark.

[00:26:05] You don't have...

[00:26:07] You have a maybe at first base in Luke Raley next year.

[00:26:09] That's about it.

[00:26:10] At second base, you have a question mark.

[00:26:13] At shortstop, J.P. Crawford's coming off the worst season of his career.

[00:26:16] You're hoping for a bounce back.

[00:26:18] But J.P. might just be a 100-105 WRC plus at shortstop.

[00:26:23] That's not going to solve all your offensive issues on your infield.

[00:26:26] So then you pivot and you look at third base.

[00:26:28] And if Josh Rojas, for what's essentially two-thirds of the season, is going to be not even a major league hitter, really,

[00:26:36] then you have to try something else.

[00:26:38] Because you can always find defense at third.

[00:26:40] But you need to score runs.

[00:26:43] That 67 WRC plus comes out to a 555 OPS.

[00:26:48] Just isn't going to cut it.

[00:26:49] But third base is supposed to be a premier offensive position, even if the position is down offensively these days.

[00:26:55] You can't have that.

[00:26:56] You just can't.

[00:26:57] So this is why I keep bringing up Kobe Mayo for third base.

[00:27:01] He's not proven.

[00:27:02] I get it.

[00:27:03] But what do you want to do at third base?

[00:27:06] Yes.

[00:27:06] Would we love to sign Alex Bregman?

[00:27:08] Of course.

[00:27:09] And for those of you in the comments that are now going to reply and say,

[00:27:12] I don't want him.

[00:27:12] He was an astro.

[00:27:13] He was a cheater.

[00:27:14] No.

[00:27:14] No.

[00:27:15] Go, like, refresh, reevaluate, and come back another time if that's your take.

[00:27:19] Because you would love to have that.

[00:27:21] Do you want good morals or do you want to win?

[00:27:24] Even still, like, hasn't this come and gone by now?

[00:27:29] Yes.

[00:27:29] All the trash can stuff?

[00:27:30] You're right.

[00:27:31] Yes.

[00:27:31] It has.

[00:27:32] And morals.

[00:27:33] I'll put morals in air quotes.

[00:27:42] He's talking about what he'd do in the clubhouse.

[00:27:43] I think he'd set a standard for a lot of guys and could elevate a lot of guys on this team.

[00:27:49] And it doesn't even speak to what he does on the field, of course.

[00:27:52] Anyway, we're wasting our breath on that because that's not happening.

[00:27:55] Mariners aren't signing Alex Bregman.

[00:27:56] So that leaves who?

[00:27:57] Alec Boehm, who the Mariners have asked about but were told you'd have to give up.

[00:28:03] Jeez, I'm laughing so hard that I'm drooling over here.

[00:28:07] You'd have to give up George Kirby or Logan Gilbert.

[00:28:12] Or, sorry, that was the offer.

[00:28:13] And the Mariners were like, well, yeah, we're obviously not doing that.

[00:28:16] So when you get past those two guys, then who?

[00:28:19] To Jeremy's point in this question, Josh Rojas is listed as the second best third baseman in free agency in terms of war.

[00:28:27] There's not a lot of great options out there.

[00:28:29] So I get Kobe Mayo's unproven, but that's why I keep circling his name in terms of, well, that's somebody that could be here a long time and be really good if it all clicks.

[00:28:40] So yeah, you just can't bring Rojas back under most circumstances.

[00:28:47] Maybe if you find a solidified third baseman and you decide you really want him as a bench utility infielder, all right.

[00:28:55] But not to be your everyday third baseman.

[00:28:57] And he could still come back and play some third.

[00:29:01] But I think the big thing is they don't want him playing at $4 million, which was his projected number.

[00:29:08] Think about this.

[00:29:10] If Josh Rojas had been tendered this offseason, the Mariners' offseason budget right now would be $11 million because of Josh Rojas.

[00:29:20] $11 million.

[00:29:23] Good Lord.

[00:29:24] But hey, they're going to go sign generational players.

[00:29:28] Their words, not ours.

[00:29:30] Their words.

[00:29:32] All right.

[00:29:33] Let's get to the next one.

[00:29:34] This comes from Transactional Healing on Twitter.

[00:29:38] And the question is, color me crazy, but I see a bounce back season for Garver in 2025.

[00:29:44] Slumped early, looked like he was starting to find his way out of it, but ultimately pressed too much the entire season.

[00:29:50] No way he plays as poorly in 2025.

[00:29:53] That said, what is a reasonable level of production for him in 2025?

[00:29:58] I don't think this is a crazy take.

[00:30:00] I'm not going to bet on it.

[00:30:02] But sure, could Garver bounce back in 2025?

[00:30:05] Yeah.

[00:30:06] Year in the organization.

[00:30:09] Gotten used to the new culture, clubhouse, city, etc.

[00:30:13] Everything.

[00:30:15] Paired with flushing the down year last year?

[00:30:19] Sure.

[00:30:19] He could bounce back.

[00:30:20] He still hit lefties well last year.

[00:30:22] It was the righties that really drove him crazy.

[00:30:26] And it was the righties that really gave him all those fits.

[00:30:28] Paired with, you know, he really struggled with the breaking balls last year, as we talked about a lot.

[00:30:35] But, what's a reasonable expectation for Garver?

[00:30:38] I don't know if he's going to hit 30 homers.

[00:30:40] But, could he be a 105 WRC plus hitter?

[00:30:43] To the point where the Mariners feel comfortable giving him more days at DH because he's producing?

[00:30:47] Yeah.

[00:30:48] Yes, Mitch Garver can absolutely bounce back in 2025.

[00:30:51] Am I going to bet on it?

[00:30:52] No.

[00:30:53] Do I think it's absolutely possible?

[00:30:54] Yes.

[00:30:56] It just depends what you would qualify as a level of bounce back.

[00:31:01] I don't think Mitch Garver in his career, at least not with the Mariners.

[00:31:04] He's not going to do this with the Mariners.

[00:31:05] He's not going to be like his 2019, 2021, or 2023 self with the Seattle Mariners.

[00:31:11] I would be absolutely shocked if that's the case.

[00:31:13] I don't really think they're going to give him the chance to do that.

[00:31:16] Really.

[00:31:19] Because, especially if somehow they go out and sign another bat, please.

[00:31:24] Then, that would add some competition to the DH role.

[00:31:29] And, Mitch Garver would be forced to only be in there against lefties, which is a strength.

[00:31:33] But, doesn't really let him get in a total groove.

[00:31:36] I think a reasonable expectation for him is him just repeating what he did against lefties last year.

[00:31:42] And, not being a total disaster catcher.

[00:31:44] Which, he's not.

[00:31:45] He's an okay backup catcher.

[00:31:48] Like, he's perfectly fine putting the gear on and catching some of these guys back there.

[00:31:53] But, if he puts up a 124 WRC plus against lefties and isn't the worst hitter in baseball against righties,

[00:32:00] I think the Mariners could live with that.

[00:32:03] And, they'll eat the $12 million.

[00:32:05] I think.

[00:32:07] That sounds about right.

[00:32:08] He's not going to be an offensive stalwart for this team.

[00:32:11] It just doesn't feel like.

[00:32:12] I don't know how you bounce back from a year that he just had.

[00:32:15] I mean, it was just overmatched against righties for almost no reason.

[00:32:23] I hope we're wrong.

[00:32:24] I hope Garver comes out and proves us wrong.

[00:32:26] Because, it would do wonders for this team if he came out and played up to the level of his contract.

[00:32:30] And, he played the way he did in 2023.

[00:32:31] That'd be awesome.

[00:32:33] But, to bank on it probably isn't wise.

[00:32:36] So, yeah.

[00:32:37] I think that's the right take.

[00:32:38] If he mostly just plays against lefties this next year, gets in here and there against righties, continues to just be George Kirby's catcher,

[00:32:47] so he's catching once every fifth day or whatever it is, yeah, he could have a good year.

[00:32:52] It's not going to be an elite year, but a good year.

[00:32:54] Contribute in some ways.

[00:32:56] And, play a role.

[00:32:57] I think that would be the definition of how Garver can bounce back.

[00:33:01] I just don't know how you play him against righties at this point.

[00:33:04] I don't know how he proves that he can go back in against righties.

[00:33:08] It's going to be difficult.

[00:33:10] Yeah, he's probably not going to get a ton of at-bats and reps against righties.

[00:33:14] He would have to, in the short sample he eventually gets, prove that he's turned some things around against right-handed pitching.

[00:33:21] And then, as a result, maybe the Mariners give him a little more leeway and a little more string to see what he can do.

[00:33:26] So, yeah.

[00:33:27] It would involve him capitalizing on what will probably be a small sample against righties early in the year, over the first six to eight weeks,

[00:33:34] and see what it looks like after that.

[00:33:36] Yeah.

[00:33:37] Okay.

[00:33:37] Okay.

[00:33:38] Question number four.

[00:33:39] This one's on YouTube from Jacob Mayer, and he says,

[00:33:43] Assuming the Mariners don't make a real move, he puts in parentheses, which it doesn't seem like they will,

[00:33:48] how do they pitch to fans that this will work?

[00:33:52] And how do they explain to fans when it inevitably doesn't?

[00:33:57] Signed, a depressed Mariners fan.

[00:33:58] I got to tell you, it's a good question.

[00:34:03] How will they pitch Mariners fans?

[00:34:05] I have an idea.

[00:34:06] I have an idea.

[00:34:07] I have an idea.

[00:34:07] Just go look at what Jerry DePoto said at the end of the season, and I think a lot of the same things that he said then, he'll say again.

[00:34:16] Here's what he'll say.

[00:34:17] He'll say our roster underperformed by a measure that we could not predict going into last year.

[00:34:25] We couldn't fathom that most of our hitting core could all have career-worst periods or career-worst years all at the exact same time,

[00:34:35] and we anticipate, even if that levels out to like a 50th percentile expectation, that our roster works and it's good.

[00:34:44] And that they're going to then go back and reiterate,

[00:34:47] Hey, we had a great final five weeks of the season.

[00:34:50] We hit like we thought we should have.

[00:34:52] We believe in this team.

[00:34:53] That's what they're going to say.

[00:34:59] Yes, probably.

[00:35:01] Because we've heard similar quotes in years past and in months past.

[00:35:06] So I'm sure they'll find a way to spin it, and I'm sure they'll talk about they love their rotation if they keep it all together,

[00:35:11] or even if they trade one away.

[00:35:12] They'll mention that.

[00:35:13] They'll mention that they think whatever marginal moves they make can really put them over the top,

[00:35:18] and how they think they're going to get some help from guys down in the minors this year,

[00:35:22] which they didn't get a whole lot of help from guys in the minors last year.

[00:35:25] It should be more help this year than last year.

[00:35:28] So I'm sure they'll spin all that.

[00:35:30] That's the part I less have a question about.

[00:35:32] Because yes, of course they'll find some way to spin it.

[00:35:35] I'm not saying fans are going to buy into this.

[00:35:37] In fact, you're probably going to get a lot of fans that roll their eyes.

[00:35:40] A lot of fans, all you have to do is read our comments, read basically any comments about the Mariners online.

[00:35:47] Well, okay, to see how the fans are feeling.

[00:35:49] I say that knowing you can't get sucked into Twitter because oftentimes it's not real life,

[00:35:54] and you can't just believe what a small conglomerate of people are saying.

[00:35:59] But we've talked to enough people in person now and heard from enough fans and interacted with enough baseball people to pick up on.

[00:36:07] I don't think it's just Twitter anymore.

[00:36:08] I think people are genuinely really, really pissed off.

[00:36:12] And for every good reason.

[00:36:14] So whatever they pitch at the start of the year, if they don't make a move, they'll find a way to spin it.

[00:36:20] Doesn't necessarily mean it's going to ring true with fans.

[00:36:24] Is that fair to say?

[00:36:25] Yes.

[00:36:27] And the second part of Jacob's question is, and how will they explain it when it inevitably does not work?

[00:36:33] Right.

[00:36:34] So that's what I wanted to really get to here.

[00:36:36] So I'll spin it back to you.

[00:36:38] But just to be clear, when I say that's a great – I mean, the whole question is a good question.

[00:36:43] But what I'm really saying is a phenomenal question that I'm not sure anybody has the answer to.

[00:36:49] I'm really referring to the second part of this question where he says, if this does not work, which a lot of people I'm sure will predict that it will not because the roster just isn't there.

[00:37:01] And it probably won't be there, at least on paper, if they don't make some real moves on offense.

[00:37:06] Yeah.

[00:37:06] If they miss the playoffs again, how are they spinning this thing to fans?

[00:37:11] That's my question.

[00:37:13] Well, they won't get to spin it.

[00:37:14] Or they shouldn't.

[00:37:16] You know why?

[00:37:16] Because they won't be working here anymore.

[00:37:20] It's certainly possible.

[00:37:22] You think in a logical, merit-based world, right?

[00:37:26] Yes.

[00:37:27] Like, I'm not making some crazy ask here.

[00:37:32] Yeah, if you miss the playoffs three years in a row after breaking the drought and then it becomes one appearance in ten years, you're really –

[00:37:39] Name me an organization in baseball that would be okay with that.

[00:37:42] With one regime.

[00:37:44] The only reason I'm going to not definitively say it's going to happen is because if you're the Mariners' ownership and all you care about is collecting profits and either breaking even or getting in the green,

[00:37:58] And you see this front office continuously helping you win 85 to 88 games with a farm system that's good, a roster that they're going to call sustainable – I put that in quotes – with a lot of young players.

[00:38:14] And they feel like year over year they're going to be in it even if they never win it.

[00:38:19] If your ownership – again, not a good ownership.

[00:38:22] But if you're this ownership, why would you fire them?

[00:38:26] They're going to make you money.

[00:38:27] They're just going to say, I don't want to go out and find an entire new baseball – like baseball ops team in front office.

[00:38:33] Because if Jerry goes, everybody goes with them.

[00:38:37] I have two responses to this.

[00:38:39] Number one, what I said is what should happen, not what will happen.

[00:38:42] What will happen – I'm just going to pull one quote that Jerry DiPoto said at the winter meetings.

[00:38:48] You'll know which one I'm talking about.

[00:38:49] Jerry DiPoto said that the Mariners were five games away from four straight playoff appearances.

[00:38:57] That's what he said.

[00:38:58] We are going to get some version of that quote.

[00:39:01] That's what will happen.

[00:39:04] Yes.

[00:39:05] When he said that, I said to myself, well, I'm sure people will react to this rationally.

[00:39:11] They did.

[00:39:14] So, yeah.

[00:39:16] Again, I'm not saying it's the right thing.

[00:39:18] But if you're this ownership group, why go out and put more work on yourselves and have to go find a new front office?

[00:39:24] If they say, well, we'll win 85 to 88 games and get in the green.

[00:39:28] Sure.

[00:39:29] Why do we need to change it up?

[00:39:30] Our farm system has been great.

[00:39:32] We draft great pitching.

[00:39:33] We're in it every year.

[00:39:35] That may be what they do.

[00:39:36] We also don't know how long Jerry's contract is, too.

[00:39:39] That could play a factor.

[00:39:40] They notoriously don't like paying for people who are not working in their organization.

[00:39:47] And Jerry, well, first of all, they still haven't announced he has an extension yet.

[00:39:52] Second of all, we don't know how long it's for.

[00:39:54] If you remember the first two times Jerry got extended, they explicitly said they announced it.

[00:39:59] He signed it.

[00:40:00] Three-year contract.

[00:40:01] This time, we have no idea.

[00:40:05] Doesn't that say a lot?

[00:40:06] I was just going to get to that.

[00:40:08] I'm glad you brought it up.

[00:40:10] What does it say that they will not publicly put out, we have extended our president of baseball operations?

[00:40:17] It's been reported.

[00:40:18] Ryan Divish, Adam Jude, they put it out in the Seattle Times.

[00:40:20] They reported it.

[00:40:21] Jerry's still here.

[00:40:23] Mariners have not said a peep about it.

[00:40:26] What is, like, and to your point, they haven't said how long the extension is.

[00:40:29] What does that say?

[00:40:32] It should say everything you need to know.

[00:40:34] It's crazy.

[00:40:37] It feels like, from the org's perspective, I'm not the Mariners organization, I'm not ownership,

[00:40:41] but that feels like a little bit of a vote of no confidence if they won't just put out a simple press release saying that this happened.

[00:40:50] He's our president of baseball ops.

[00:40:52] This is what I don't understand.

[00:40:54] Then why did you give it to him in the first place?

[00:40:58] I don't know.

[00:40:59] Why'd they hire Dan Wilson without doing any hiring process?

[00:41:03] Why do the Mariners do all the things that they do?

[00:41:06] As Ryan Divish said, they don't operate in common sense.

[00:41:11] Divish should do that when he eventually hangs it up.

[00:41:14] Be the VP of common sense for the Seattle Mariners.

[00:41:16] He'd be great at it.

[00:41:18] Pays pretty well, I hear.

[00:41:21] Man, we'd have a real source all of a sudden if Divish took that job.

[00:41:25] Could you imagine those conversations?

[00:41:28] It's like, is there a trade near?

[00:41:30] Fuck off.

[00:41:32] I don't think Divish would say that to us.

[00:41:34] However.

[00:41:35] Well, he would say it as a joke first.

[00:41:36] Oh, well, yeah.

[00:41:38] But we might get to hear from him at some point.

[00:41:42] Yeah.

[00:41:43] The Mariners want to come out and say their highlight move of the offseason is Yohan Moncada and how he's going to change the entire franchise.

[00:41:49] I called him up and say, you say that and there's going to be pitchforks outside your office.

[00:41:57] He'd be great at it.

[00:41:58] Divish would be great at that job.

[00:42:01] Yeah.

[00:42:02] Let's manifest it.

[00:42:04] Yes.

[00:42:05] All right.

[00:42:05] We can keep going.

[00:42:06] That is it.

[00:42:07] Jacob, that was a very, very good question.

[00:42:09] One, we may not have the perfect answer to, but it is a question that TJ, myself, and every single Mariner fan can really think on.

[00:42:18] Because it involves a real thought process.

[00:42:22] I'll tell you that.

[00:42:23] Next question is from Bailey Schaefer on Instagram.

[00:42:26] And the question is, have you guys ever played out of the park baseball yourselves?

[00:42:30] If either of you have, I'm curious how it went.

[00:42:34] I've never played.

[00:42:35] We have a friend that plays a lot.

[00:42:37] So I'll defer to TJ if he knows a little bit more about it.

[00:42:40] But I have never played the game.

[00:42:41] I should.

[00:42:42] I don't.

[00:42:43] I've seen our friend Jeremy play it quite a bunch.

[00:42:45] Which now, though, you can just pretty much do the same thing a bit more user-friendly, I'll say, version in MLB The Show.

[00:42:53] Which I think is a little bit more digestible for people who aren't hardcore future baseball executives.

[00:43:00] Because out of the park baseball, for those who aren't familiar, I mean, it is as detail-oriented as you can get when it comes to running a team.

[00:43:07] I mean, you're essentially running an entire organization on your computer.

[00:43:11] It's really fascinating for someone who wants to do that in the future.

[00:43:15] I think it's something that's super fun to do.

[00:43:18] And I know Foolish Baseball, who we had on this channel, and you heard it mentioned in his interview, his channel got started by him playing out-of-the-park baseball.

[00:43:27] That's what the channel started as.

[00:43:28] And then it transformed into baseball bits.

[00:43:32] Which, for someone like Bailey, he's incredibly smart.

[00:43:35] He could definitely run a team, I think, if he wanted to.

[00:43:38] And he showed up by playing that video game.

[00:43:40] I think it's cool.

[00:43:40] It's a little bit too much for me.

[00:43:42] It's like my Gen Z ADD.

[00:43:44] I would get distracted and stop playing.

[00:43:47] Yeah.

[00:43:49] Yeah, I just can't sit out and play video games for a long time.

[00:43:52] I just, I get a little bored.

[00:43:54] I probably end up just feeling like I need to do something else.

[00:43:58] So, yeah, that's probably why I was never a huge video game person.

[00:44:00] But, out-of-the-park baseball, I would love to give it a shot.

[00:44:03] Because all the reviews you hear of it are really good.

[00:44:06] So, hopefully at some point.

[00:44:09] Okay, next question.

[00:44:11] This is also on Instagram.

[00:44:13] And it is from, to make sure I get the name right.

[00:44:17] It is from Vol Creeland.

[00:44:21] And he says, is Randy really going to stick around for two years?

[00:44:26] What he means by that is, there are two years left on Randy and Rosarena's contract.

[00:44:30] 2025 and 2026.

[00:44:32] If you remember, Divish was on with us right after service got fired.

[00:44:36] And he threw out the opinion, and probably very informed opinion, of,

[00:44:42] if the Mariners feel like they don't have the money, they're going to trade Randy.

[00:44:47] So, hasn't happened this offseason.

[00:44:50] Could it happen at this deadline?

[00:44:52] Could it happen next winter?

[00:44:55] It shouldn't.

[00:44:57] But, I think there's a real world where it does.

[00:45:01] If he's going to get traded, I'd say it would be next winter.

[00:45:04] I don't see him getting traded this season.

[00:45:05] Because they're at least going to try and win this season.

[00:45:07] It would need to spectacularly blow up this year for him to get traded at this deadline.

[00:45:13] But next year, he's going to make something like $16-17 million.

[00:45:16] $16 million.

[00:45:17] That's a tradable number for Randy.

[00:45:18] More tradable than $12 million.

[00:45:20] Especially if the budget doesn't go up.

[00:45:22] And these guys on the roster get more expensive.

[00:45:25] They'll see Randy.

[00:45:26] He's going to, might be a DH only at that point.

[00:45:28] Say, alright, time to trade him.

[00:45:31] Randy doesn't get a choice whether or not he gets to stay here for two years or not.

[00:45:34] If he wanted to stay two years, Mariners could decide to trade him.

[00:45:38] If he didn't want to stay two years, Mariners could just keep him until free agency if they wanted to.

[00:45:42] My prediction though is no, I don't think he's staying here two years.

[00:45:46] Which is a ridiculous, asinine statement.

[00:45:49] But it may be the true statement.

[00:45:51] When you acquire a player like that, you keep him.

[00:45:55] You do not trade him.

[00:45:57] He is supposed to be one of the staples of this offense.

[00:46:00] Keep a Rosarena.

[00:46:02] Please.

[00:46:02] And the Mariners are going to say, well, next year he might make $15-16 million in arbitration.

[00:46:07] We can't afford that.

[00:46:08] We're going to have to trade him away.

[00:46:09] Hey, oh, that's funny.

[00:46:11] I thought you guys said you were trying to acquire generational players.

[00:46:14] Now, did you mean that?

[00:46:16] Or did you put out false promises?

[00:46:19] Hmm.

[00:46:20] Law is asking the big questions.

[00:46:24] $15 million is too expensive.

[00:46:26] Good Lord.

[00:46:27] No, they better keep a Rosarena.

[00:46:29] That's what I'll say.

[00:46:30] If they trade him before his contract ends, I'm going to be very, very unhappy.

[00:46:35] Unless for whatever reason in 2026, they're totally out of it at the trade deadline.

[00:46:41] And then you're forced to trade him.

[00:46:42] But if that happens, there's bigger problems than just Randy or Rosarena.

[00:46:47] Yeah, they're going to be selling a lot at that point.

[00:46:50] At that point, they restart the cycle and it's time to target the generational players in 2030.

[00:46:56] I can think of a couple going on the market at that time.

[00:47:00] Paul Skeens?

[00:47:00] Around then is like...

[00:47:02] Oh, no.

[00:47:03] Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.

[00:47:04] Oh.

[00:47:05] Oh.

[00:47:06] Yeah, those guys.

[00:47:07] Hmm.

[00:47:07] Funny.

[00:47:08] Brian Wu.

[00:47:08] Bryce Miller.

[00:47:09] Yeah, they'll all be free agents then.

[00:47:11] Really good pitchers.

[00:47:13] Would you sign?

[00:47:13] I think that's something they could target.

[00:47:15] Would you sign those guys?

[00:47:18] Yes.

[00:47:19] But it's not a smart strategy.

[00:47:22] Well, it's a smart strategy for me.

[00:47:25] Oh, sorry.

[00:47:26] Maybe just not for the ums.

[00:47:26] My bad.

[00:47:27] You're not one of the Mariners' owners.

[00:47:29] I forgot.

[00:47:29] Yeah.

[00:47:29] I would sign all those guys.

[00:47:31] Yeah.

[00:47:32] Wow.

[00:47:32] Good.

[00:47:33] Next question comes from Tyler D. Millard on Instagram.

[00:47:37] He has a mock Mets trade proposal for Luis Castillo.

[00:47:42] He has the Mets sending Mark Fientos and Jose Butto.

[00:47:46] Is Butto right?

[00:47:48] No, it's Budo.

[00:47:49] Frank the Tank.

[00:47:50] Frank the Tank just likes to say Butto to call him Butto.

[00:47:52] See, I've only ever heard Frank the Tank pronounce his name.

[00:47:55] That's probably why.

[00:47:56] He calls him Butto because when he doesn't pitch well, that's his name for him.

[00:48:00] Well, I blame Frank the Tank for that.

[00:48:02] So Jose Budo and Mark Vientos from the Mets.

[00:48:05] The Mariners trade Luis Castillo, Colt Emerson, and Tyler Locklear.

[00:48:12] So, do I think there's a world here where the Mets would accept this trade and actually move on from Vientos?

[00:48:17] Yeah.

[00:48:19] I don't think this is a smart trade for the Mariners.

[00:48:21] You're not trading Colt Emerson.

[00:48:23] It's not for Mark Vientos.

[00:48:25] It'd be one thing if you traded the guy for Gunner Henderson or something.

[00:48:29] But this is your untouchable prospect.

[00:48:33] If you want to talk about a Mark Vientos trade involving other Mariners prospects, okay.

[00:48:38] We've also mentioned that the Mets probably wouldn't do it.

[00:48:41] And again, because they're in a contention window, Vientos is a young, controllable bat that just put up a huge year at the plate last year.

[00:48:48] It'd be pretty hard to get the Mets to move on from that guy.

[00:48:52] And I don't think they're going to.

[00:48:54] But it cannot involve the Mariners overpaying like that to get him.

[00:48:58] Vientos is a bad defender, by the way.

[00:49:00] And as good as he was at the plate last year, we don't know if he's going to repeat it or not.

[00:49:05] He's only shown this for one season.

[00:49:06] To trade away Colt Emerson, you can't do it.

[00:49:10] You just can't do it.

[00:49:12] I wouldn't do this trade.

[00:49:14] The Mariners definitely wouldn't do this trade.

[00:49:16] Would you do it if they put Felning in there instead?

[00:49:19] It gets a little more interesting just because he is further away.

[00:49:23] As good as he could be, he is further away.

[00:49:27] You'd think more about it, yes.

[00:49:29] I still might lean toward...

[00:49:33] I'd still probably lean toward no, but I'd be more open-minded than Colt Emerson.

[00:49:38] If you were going to trade for Vientos, the price is really high.

[00:49:43] If you're trading Castillo, it would need to be Castillo and it would need to be one of your top line prospects.

[00:49:50] The problem is whenever you bring up Colt Emerson in a trade, the Mariners are going to say no every single time.

[00:49:57] Emerson's got one more year left in the minors and then the Mariners anticipate he's going to be an incredible big leaguer.

[00:50:04] That is the expectation for him.

[00:50:06] I'll put a lukewarm take out there.

[00:50:09] If the Mariners have a good year and they're in it by the end of 25, I've said this before, so I'll say it again.

[00:50:16] There is a world Colt Emerson is a Seattle Mariner by the tail end of 2025.

[00:50:21] Likely?

[00:50:21] No.

[00:50:22] Possible?

[00:50:23] Yes.

[00:50:26] No.

[00:50:27] They're not.

[00:50:27] So the Mariners aren't doing this.

[00:50:29] And the Mets might not either for that matter.

[00:50:31] Again, the Mets are trying to win right now.

[00:50:34] Vientos is a proven bat right now.

[00:50:36] He just had a great year, plays a position that is down offensively at third base, and has five years of club control.

[00:50:41] If you're the Mets, you probably want to keep that guy.

[00:50:47] And I assume you're sending all of Castillo's money over in this trade as well.

[00:50:52] It's just like it's untouchables on each side for this.

[00:50:55] So at that point, it just kind of...

[00:50:57] Excuse me.

[00:50:59] Oh, boy.

[00:50:59] All right, T?

[00:51:01] I'm great.

[00:51:03] See, I'm getting really...

[00:51:04] I'm healthy now.

[00:51:05] I'm going to be healthy on Friday morning, bright and early.

[00:51:07] Oh, good.

[00:51:09] From a value perspective, though, do you feel it's similar on both sides?

[00:51:14] Not from whether or not the team would say yes, but from a value perspective, it feels pretty even.

[00:51:21] Similar, yeah.

[00:51:23] Yeah.

[00:51:23] I just don't think those teams and those executives would agree to it.

[00:51:27] If you want to hear more about a Mets-Mariners potential trade, maybe you listened already on Wednesday,

[00:51:33] but go back and listen to Wednesday's podcast.

[00:51:35] This is what we spent the bulk of the episode talking about.

[00:51:37] The only team we hadn't really talked about in terms of what a mock trade could look like with Luis Castillo for the teams that are reportedly interested is the Mets.

[00:51:45] And what we came to the conclusion of is because the Mets probably would not trade Vientos, which is I'm sure the guy the Mariners would want and be the most interested in,

[00:51:54] I don't think a trade really matches up between these two teams.

[00:51:58] The Mets just do not have something to give that the Mariners would be intrigued enough to say yes to,

[00:52:02] and the Mariners just may not want to trade Luis Castillo.

[00:52:05] Yeah.

[00:52:06] Yep.

[00:52:07] Unfortunately.

[00:52:08] Right.

[00:52:08] Because Vientos would be great.

[00:52:09] He would be a guy, if he was somehow available, you'd circle.

[00:52:13] 100% you would.

[00:52:15] All right.

[00:52:16] Last question.

[00:52:17] This is from MacDice19 on Instagram, and he says,

[00:52:30] Here's a secret with deferred money.

[00:52:32] Just because you're deferring the money does not mean that you're not spending cash in a given year.

[00:52:39] Because in Shohei's contract, I think we explained this before, I'll explain it again.

[00:52:47] Shohei's getting his $68 million starting once his contract's over, but the Dodgers are putting the cash that will accrue to $68 million in an account this year.

[00:52:59] So, they're taking the $47 million out of their reserves and putting it in an escrow account to grow to $68 million by the time he's due that money.

[00:53:13] The money still gets paid.

[00:53:15] It's not like you're like, oh, we're just going to push all of our payments down the road.

[00:53:18] We don't even have to think about it until 2032.

[00:53:22] No, you think about it this year, and you still have to pay that money this year.

[00:53:27] And second of all, especially in the Mariners' case, a big reason the Mariners don't spend money is because they really don't like accruing debt.

[00:53:35] And they don't like borrowing money against future assets to pay for players.

[00:53:42] That's what essentially deferring money is.

[00:53:45] You are borrowing against your future to pay for players now.

[00:53:49] You're essentially just continuously taking on a mortgage on your home that you're going to have to pay back.

[00:53:55] That's why they're unfortunately not going to do it.

[00:53:58] You need a lot of cash at hand instantly to defer payments.

[00:54:02] And even if it involved you not having to pay as much now and paying the money down the road like it was interest,

[00:54:07] Mariners don't want to do that either.

[00:54:09] They don't want to spend money now, and they don't want to spend money down the road.

[00:54:11] At least this current ownership doesn't.

[00:54:14] So, especially if this ownership group is one day going to sell the team, whenever that may be,

[00:54:20] if they do that, they probably don't want to have accrued debt to give to some potential new buyer

[00:54:28] because they figure it would be a little bit of a deal breaker for whoever might be interested in buying the team.

[00:54:34] So, I'm sure the Mariners aren't interested in that sort of setup for a contract.

[00:54:38] The Dodgers don't care.

[00:54:39] The Dodgers very clearly plan to be in that position for a long time.

[00:54:43] Those owners clearly are planning to own that team for a long time.

[00:54:46] What is it?

[00:54:47] The Guggenheim Ownership Group?

[00:54:48] I think that's their name.

[00:54:49] Yeah.

[00:54:50] And there's a few people that are a part of it, but they clearly have a very long-term process here

[00:54:56] and have no issue spending money.

[00:54:58] The Mariners, unfortunately, are not that.

[00:55:02] The idea of it sounds good, but the day-to-day execution of it is just,

[00:55:07] it's not realistic for a team like the Mariners.

[00:55:09] And for most teams in baseball who don't spend cash hand over fist,

[00:55:13] you can't just sit around deferring money to all these players you want to sign

[00:55:17] because eventually you're going to have to pay for it.

[00:55:19] You'll need the revenue sources for it.

[00:55:20] And the Mariners, from what they tell us, don't have guaranteed revenue sources in the future

[00:55:25] that they can pull from to pay for players.

[00:55:28] So they tell us.

[00:55:30] Right.

[00:55:31] So they tell us.

[00:55:33] Or are they telling the truth?

[00:55:34] That's a different story.

[00:55:35] Totally different story.

[00:55:36] Yeah.

[00:55:37] And remember, go back and listen to the David Sampson episode if you forgot what he said,

[00:55:41] but he was explaining all the ways these owners will find money.

[00:55:45] They'll take their own money.

[00:55:46] They'll take out a line of credit against things the team owns.

[00:55:50] For example, Root Sports, which I actually don't know if they can do that with Root Sports anymore

[00:55:53] because it's values decreasing very quick.

[00:55:57] But he was using the Yankees example.

[00:55:59] The Yankees, they'll sign all these free agents and they just borrow against Yes, the Yes Network.

[00:56:04] Because it makes so much money for them.

[00:56:06] Mariners can't do that.

[00:56:08] Right.

[00:56:10] So that's the truth.

[00:56:11] And those are our mailbag questions for this episode.

[00:56:14] Good batch of questions.

[00:56:15] People were creative.

[00:56:16] People came prepared.

[00:56:17] Hopefully we gave you guys the answers that you were somewhat looking for.

[00:56:20] And as always, we look forward to these mailbags because we love to hear what you guys are thinking about

[00:56:25] and we love to answer whatever questions you guys have.

[00:56:29] So with that, I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast.

[00:56:33] You guys know the drill.

[00:56:34] You want to listen to the full-form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods.

[00:56:39] If you're listening, you guys do us a big favor.

[00:56:41] Please download these episodes.

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[00:57:11] And one more time, we are going to be on Brock and Salk Friday, December 20th, when this podcast comes out, 6 to 10 a.m. on 710 Seattle Sports.

[00:57:20] Go tune in live or find the podcast later on.

[00:57:23] We're really looking forward to it.

[00:57:25] Hope to find you there.

[00:57:26] That's TJ.

[00:57:27] I'm Lyle.

[00:57:27] As always, we thank you guys for tuning in.

[00:57:29] We'll talk to you soon.

[00:57:30] We'll talk to you soon.