Episode 198: Is Luis Arraez A Fit For The Mariners?

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 198 of the Marine Layer Podcast. It's time to have the Luis Arraez conversation.

[00:00:06] Does the San Diego Padres second baseman make sense for the Mariners? We'll dive in and discuss.

[00:00:11] We have a couple of other second base or infield options to talk about as well in Oswaldo Cabrera and Willie Castro.

[00:00:19] This show is brought to you by our friends over at Pogaccia's Pub 85. College football playoffs right in the thick of it.

[00:00:26] You guys were at the point of the semifinals as we're recording this. NFL playoffs are starting this weekend.

[00:00:32] NBA is in full swing. College basketball is in full swing. There's obviously hockey.

[00:00:36] There's no shortage of events to watch, I should say. There's no shortage.

[00:00:41] So if you need a place to go, head over there. Go over with your friends. Get some great food.

[00:00:46] And if you go during happy hour, drinks are $3 and $4. Yeah, that's real prices guys.

[00:00:51] $3 and $4 happy hour drinks. 2 to 6 p.m. on Monday through Friday.

[00:00:54] You're not going to find deals better than that. So if you want sporting events, place to hang out with your friends, good food, awesome drink specials, head over there.

[00:01:04] It's over at Pogaccia's Pub 85 in Kirkland.

[00:01:06] And before we start the pod, here's a reminder.

[00:01:09] If you're listening, do us a favor. Hit download on these episodes.

[00:01:13] That way you don't need service. You don't need Wi-Fi to listen.

[00:01:15] It's just right there on your phone. It helps us a bunch if you do.

[00:01:18] Make sure to rate and review and leave it five stars. Rate and review everywhere.

[00:01:24] Subscribe button. And on social media, we're on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube Shorts, Blue Sky, at Marine Layer Pod.

[00:01:31] Let's get it rolling.

[00:01:45] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network,

[00:01:51] recording on Thursday evening, January 9th.

[00:01:55] Lyle, have the Mariners made a move yet?

[00:01:58] By a technicality, they are on the freaking board.

[00:02:04] Can you believe it?

[00:02:06] By acquiring Tyler Jay, a reliever with eight innings of big league service time, and Hagan Danner.

[00:02:14] Let's give it up for Jerry.

[00:02:18] Welcome to the party!

[00:02:20] You know, here's what I have to say.

[00:02:23] The Mariners were real quiet.

[00:02:25] They were real quiet for a long point of this offseason.

[00:02:29] Just crickets everywhere.

[00:02:31] No moves.

[00:02:32] And then all of a sudden, the Mariners say,

[00:02:35] I might swerve in that corner.

[00:02:37] Whoa!

[00:02:37] Or, I might swerve in that corner.

[00:02:39] Whoa!

[00:02:39] Whoa!

[00:02:40] All right, I'm done.

[00:02:42] I will say, odds are, one of these two will pitch...

[00:02:46] Let's take a bold guess here.

[00:02:47] One of these two will pitch major relief innings for the Mariners in 2025.

[00:02:52] Yes?

[00:02:54] Probably.

[00:02:54] This is usually how it goes when the Mariners acquire guys like this.

[00:02:59] Hold us to it.

[00:03:00] But there's only one...

[00:03:02] Unfortunately, Lyle, I think there's only one notable fun fact about either of these two guys.

[00:03:09] One's a Little League World Series legend?

[00:03:11] Yeah, that would be the one.

[00:03:13] Yeah, that's about it.

[00:03:15] So, Hagan Danner won the Little League World Series in 2011, I believe.

[00:03:20] Him and Nick Prado of the Royals, who Nick Prado was a top 15 pick a few years ago,

[00:03:25] were on that same team.

[00:03:27] And Prado hit the walk-off single to win it all in that title game, which is pretty cool.

[00:03:32] So, there's your fun fact.

[00:03:34] You know, the Mariners...

[00:03:35] I take it you were watching.

[00:03:37] I mean, for a long time.

[00:03:39] That was a year after we would have, like, our year would have been eligible to play there.

[00:03:44] Yeah, for a long time.

[00:03:45] I loved watching the Little League World Series through, I don't know, some point in high school.

[00:03:50] But I think part of it was I always just dreamed of getting to play there so badly, and I never did.

[00:03:55] So, I tried to live vicariously through it.

[00:03:57] So, I'd watch for a lot of years growing up.

[00:04:01] But, I will say, the Mariners, oddly, have a lot of guys in their org who were Little League World Series stars.

[00:04:07] Do you notice that?

[00:04:09] I wouldn't notice it, but you definitely would.

[00:04:12] Well, and our friend Jordan Schusterman would.

[00:04:14] He keeps a big Twitter thread of it.

[00:04:16] All the Mariners that have played in the Little League World Series.

[00:04:18] So, Hagan Danner...

[00:04:19] What's the full list?

[00:04:21] Well, so Hagan Danner...

[00:04:24] There was one he just tweeted out the other day.

[00:04:28] Somebody I didn't even realize.

[00:04:29] I want to say he was on Team Mexico.

[00:04:31] I can't remember.

[00:04:32] But the other two, the two big noteworthy ones, Ty Pete, Durangelo Sanja, who Durangelo is a 12-year-old, was still switch pitching.

[00:04:40] And that was all the way back in Williamsport.

[00:04:42] So, yeah, he was on that Team Curacao team.

[00:04:45] Pretty crazy.

[00:04:45] Glad you know that.

[00:04:47] Let's see if...

[00:04:48] If I find it quickly enough, we'll see if Jordan has the other guy.

[00:04:54] Oh!

[00:04:55] It's Marcelo Perez, who was in the Mariners minor league system this past year.

[00:05:00] He was on Team Mexico at one point, and that's who Jordan was tweeting about.

[00:05:03] So, yeah, Jordan keeps the thread of all this stuff.

[00:05:05] Might be the coolest thing about this offseason.

[00:05:08] Well...

[00:05:09] You said it on Wednesday's episode.

[00:05:11] You can summarize this offseason in about five seconds.

[00:05:14] Well, now you can do it in six.

[00:05:17] Wow.

[00:05:18] Incredible.

[00:05:19] Look, I know we talked about this on Wednesday's podcast a little bit.

[00:05:24] Well, I guess people listening on the audio side got to hear it on Wednesday, because there was some technical stuff on the video end with a little bit of Wednesday's episode.

[00:05:32] So, we had to edit some things around.

[00:05:34] So, anyway, point being, let's just rehash this again, because it still remains the case every podcast we record where they do not make a move.

[00:05:42] And the fact we're at the point where they still have three wide open positions, first base, second base, third base.

[00:05:48] That doesn't even include DH and relief pitching.

[00:05:51] But I'm going to go through this again.

[00:05:53] Seriously.

[00:05:54] Seriously.

[00:05:54] If you are Cal Raleigh, how are you feeling right now?

[00:05:59] And I ask that because think about what the guy said at the end of 2023.

[00:06:03] He said this team needs more big time impact players.

[00:06:07] He called out ownership saying, you have not done enough.

[00:06:09] We need more guys in this clubhouse that can change the way this roster can play and the upside it has.

[00:06:17] We need more legitimate guys in this clubhouse.

[00:06:20] Since that time, the Mariners have salary dumped Eugenio Suarez, salary dumped Jared Kelnick, brought a bunch of players in last offseason that, aside from Luke Raley, were not good enough.

[00:06:33] And now you fast forward a year later after missing the playoffs for the second year in a row.

[00:06:38] They have a $15 million made up self-imposed budget on the table, and it made zero moves here on January the 9th.

[00:06:46] So, if you're Cal Raleigh, are you not absolutely fuming?

[00:06:51] Is there not smoke coming out of your ears?

[00:06:54] Seriously.

[00:06:56] I don't know.

[00:06:57] Smoke fuming out of my ears is quite where I would go with this.

[00:07:01] Cal Raleigh is going to still show up to work for the Mariners, and he is going to work his tail off and be his best possible self.

[00:07:07] You know why?

[00:07:08] Because that is going to benefit his current team the most, and it's going to benefit his wallet the most in the future.

[00:07:14] Because that's how you make money.

[00:07:16] And right now, Cal can only occupy one of nine spots in this lineup.

[00:07:20] He can't pitch for this team.

[00:07:21] He can't structure the bullpen for the team.

[00:07:23] He can't run the bases for the other nine spots in the lineup.

[00:07:26] Cal has to do what Cal's going to do.

[00:07:28] But if Cal's sitting there and thinking, is this somewhere I want to invest my future in?

[00:07:34] And somewhere where I believe this team is going to constantly put good players around me and give me a chance to win.

[00:07:40] And whatever they try and sales pitch me for an extension, I'm going to believe it when they tell me we want to win a World Series with you behind the plate in the future.

[00:07:49] I would imagine he's got a bit of a harder time believing that right now.

[00:07:53] But in terms of how it affects him this season, personally, it won't affect him all that much.

[00:07:59] It more affects getting players to commit here long term.

[00:08:04] Cal Raleigh doesn't have a choice right now whether or not he's a Seattle Mariner or not.

[00:08:07] If the Mariners want him on the roster, he's going to suit up and play for the Mariners.

[00:08:10] It's more of the selling point, as we've talked about over and over and over again, of getting players to commit to Seattle long term.

[00:08:19] That does not sell them.

[00:08:22] Your answer mirrors Jeff Passan's answer from earlier here on Thursday when he was on Brock and Salk.

[00:08:29] And I was wondering if we were going to recap any of this because while the interview was great and love listening to Passan talk baseball,

[00:08:35] there wasn't anything overly groundbreaking in it.

[00:08:38] So I wouldn't say there's anything we need to take here to the podcast to react to.

[00:08:41] But the biggest takeaway is what we're talking about right now.

[00:08:44] How when Passan was asked about basically this same topic, he said, I don't know if it's going to affect players and their attitudes and mentalities right now,

[00:08:53] but it's going to affect it down the road.

[00:08:55] If you're every single one of these guys that the Mariners could be looking to extend, how do you have any motivation right now to sign an extension with them?

[00:09:04] If you're Cal Raleigh, if you're Logan Gilbert, if you're George Kirby, if you're Bryce Miller, if you're Brian Wu, whoever else.

[00:09:10] How on earth can you look at what's gone on the last two winners and say this team is bought in on winning?

[00:09:19] I'm bought in on winning.

[00:09:20] I'm doing my part, they all say.

[00:09:23] Is everybody else?

[00:09:26] Are the people at the top of this organization doing that?

[00:09:29] No.

[00:09:30] No.

[00:09:30] No, they're not.

[00:09:31] So, which leads me all back to saying, is this what this organization wants?

[00:09:38] Seriously.

[00:09:39] This is what they want?

[00:09:41] Do like, are they, are they seeing what are they envisioning and, and planning out what the long term effects of their decision making are going to be?

[00:09:49] Because what this says to me and how they've operated all winner is they are perfectly content with not only not signing players of impact now, but they're perfectly content letting all their players of impact just walk out of the building eventually.

[00:10:01] Because they won't, they won't fork up the money to extend them.

[00:10:04] They won't do the necessary things to keep them happy.

[00:10:07] And then all of a sudden, if the team's going to be a 65 win team four years down the line, I don't want that to happen.

[00:10:15] I don't think that's going to happen, but if it were to happen, that's what you want?

[00:10:20] Because I'll promise you nobody's showing up to the ballpark then.

[00:10:23] People aren't showing up for a 65 win team.

[00:10:28] Yes, that, that is all, that is all correct.

[00:10:31] I will say though, this off season, I don't think can detriment any single player currently on the Mariners roster, who by the way, as we've talked about, need to perform well, regardless of what the Mariners do the rest of the off season.

[00:10:42] I, you can't have a single player on this roster, believing this roster is anything but good enough going into this 2025 season.

[00:10:51] Because even while if we sit on the outside and say, well, this roster is not good enough, it's clear they're not investing enough into their future.

[00:10:57] They, they're almost, it's almost not caring enough to invest on the current players in your roster, as opposed to being like, oh, we're going to have such a great core in the future.

[00:11:06] Cause we have a really good farm system. It's like, no, the farm system should be the guys currently on your roster that you hope to keep you good for the next 10 years.

[00:11:13] Not hoping the guys in your minors might be good in the future.

[00:11:16] Like they envisioned with this group that happened to work out cause they developed them correctly.

[00:11:21] But the guys on the roster, I, I, you can't have them show up to pitchers and catchers reporting in 30 days from now and think, oh, we stink. We're not good enough.

[00:11:30] But, but that is, they might not say it out loud, but that is going to be internal thoughts that a bunch of these guys have with this infield.

[00:11:38] Okay. But you're a pro. You can't let that get into your mind because you know, what's going to happen. If you think that anytime something bad happens, you're going to just shrug your shoulders and go, oh, well.

[00:11:51] Except it was clearly on Cal Raleigh's mind, a lot of 2023. And I'll bet you last year.

[00:11:55] And how was it in 2023? How'd they do?

[00:11:57] They missed the playoffs.

[00:11:59] Right. Thank you. And if that was the thought again, last year, what happened?

[00:12:02] Also missed the playoffs.

[00:12:03] Okay, great. And a lot of the roster underperformed, right? You can't let that much. You can, we can think that on the outside.

[00:12:10] The talking heads can think about it on the outside. The players looking in the organization can think that, and it's true.

[00:12:16] It's a hundred percent true, but the players on the roster need to believe they're good enough because if they're not, as soon as that doubt slips into your mind, it's over.

[00:12:27] Yeah. I hope the players have that internal belief because that's, that's what's going to keep them afloat at this point.

[00:12:35] But before we get into the meat of this podcast, before we get into our outline topics for this show, can I just go back to what I said a minute ago?

[00:12:43] Is, is this seriously what the people owning this baseball team want?

[00:12:49] I'm not saying they want to be the Mets.

[00:12:51] They clearly don't because they don't spend anything close to what the Mets do or any, or even, even somebody like the Braves.

[00:12:57] But is, is this seriously what they want?

[00:13:00] Are they not going to make a major investment in anybody ever again after Julio Rodriguez?

[00:13:07] And you're just going to let every player walk out the door.

[00:13:10] That, that is the direction they're going right now because they have not made any other in-house extensions and you're not going to get any done.

[00:13:17] If you continue to operate like this every off season.

[00:13:21] Is that what they want to be right now?

[00:13:24] That's what it seems like.

[00:13:25] Yes.

[00:13:25] To answer your question.

[00:13:28] Well, I hope they, I hope they're enjoying it right now.

[00:13:32] And I hope the next wave of guys that are going to come up through the farm system, save their skin again for the sake of this fan base who wants to see this baseball team be extremely good with every bone in their body.

[00:13:43] Because this is such a passionate fan base.

[00:13:45] The people who own this team are not passionate.

[00:13:47] The people who are in this fan base are.

[00:13:50] So maybe they'll save their skin.

[00:13:51] But I, I don't know if they're thinking for one second about the long-term effects of how they're choosing to operate.

[00:13:58] But it is going to play in effect.

[00:14:01] Because eventually, if nobody outside of the organization wants to come play here and nobody in the organization continues to want to play here, that is how you end up with top 10 picks in the MLB draft.

[00:14:12] Here's something that can be true, though.

[00:14:15] I think it is a fact that this ownership group and this front office has not had the scenario unfold and then seen the repercussions of what happens when they do do that.

[00:14:25] And they could learn their lesson.

[00:14:27] They could.

[00:14:28] Right?

[00:14:28] You might not think it's going to happen now.

[00:14:31] You might think, oh, we're good.

[00:14:32] But then realizing when steps like this happen and then the players that you drafted, you developed, you brought up through your minor league system, and you watch flourish in front of your eyes and have the entire city fall in love with them.

[00:14:43] And then they decide to leave because how you operate.

[00:14:46] In an optimistic sense, I hope at that point there's some reflection taken throughout the organization to realize, look how much the fans hung on to these players, invested in these players, invested in us, and the city came alive in their love of baseball.

[00:15:04] And when we operated this way, all those players who worked so hard to develop and so hard to create the value of those players and for them to see the value of their career and their lives explode, they walk out the window because we didn't operate correctly.

[00:15:19] I then just hope in the future they take a look at that and realize we cannot let that repeat.

[00:15:26] You don't have to sign everybody.

[00:15:28] That doesn't have to happen.

[00:15:29] That's a lot.

[00:15:30] The Yankees don't sign everybody.

[00:15:32] The Mets don't sign everybody.

[00:15:33] The Dodgers don't sign every single player they ever had.

[00:15:36] They let Corey Seager, one of the best players of their core, walk out the door.

[00:15:41] But the Mariners could at least try to do some of them.

[00:15:44] There's a long time to go before any decisions need to be made on that, final decisions.

[00:15:48] But we just hope that they're the right ones.

[00:15:50] Yes.

[00:15:50] I'm going to amend one thing you said, and then we can move on.

[00:15:53] You said you hope the organization takes a look into the mirror if that were to happen.

[00:15:57] No, it's not the organization.

[00:15:59] Because I truly wish there were more opportunities to amplify some of the awesome people that work in the organization.

[00:16:08] Because there's so many awesome people, and I mean that to the core.

[00:16:14] There are so many awesome people that work in the org and are amazing at their jobs and love the Mariners and love baseball and want to do their part in the role they play, whether it's in marketing, whether it's in business, whether it's etc., etc.

[00:16:29] To make the team a great product.

[00:16:32] There really are so many amazing people that work in the org.

[00:16:36] Those are not the people that need to look in the mirror.

[00:16:38] We know good and damn well the people who need to look in the mirror.

[00:16:42] And it is the people that run this baseball team, this ridiculous ownership group, dude.

[00:16:49] They are the organization because they own it.

[00:16:52] Yeah.

[00:16:52] No, I mean, yeah.

[00:16:53] It is them.

[00:16:54] Yes.

[00:16:54] They own the company.

[00:16:56] Therefore, they take responsibility in any business.

[00:17:00] If something goes wrong, it falls on the person who owns it.

[00:17:04] Every time.

[00:17:05] If something goes wrong on this podcast, who's to blame?

[00:17:08] Me and you.

[00:17:10] What about when Riverside screwed with our video this past week and we couldn't get the full podcast?

[00:17:15] Well, it's on us because we got – do you think people care if we make that excuse?

[00:17:20] No, no.

[00:17:20] I'm just saying.

[00:17:22] Right.

[00:17:22] Exactly.

[00:17:23] It will fall on us because we didn't put out the product we wanted to.

[00:17:28] It's the same part of the Mariners.

[00:17:30] Yeah.

[00:17:30] Someone that, like, ownership screws up, ownership's fault.

[00:17:32] Front office screws up, ownership's fault.

[00:17:35] Right.

[00:17:35] These are all – ultimately, all decisions come back to you just like it is on this show.

[00:17:39] Sure.

[00:17:40] No, that's fair.

[00:17:41] Here's a decision they can make this offseason, Lyle.

[00:17:43] So the Padres, speaking of shedding payroll, they're in a bit of a pickle when it comes to their budget.

[00:17:51] Just a little bit of a pickle.

[00:17:53] And there's one interesting potential addition that we could talk about to help relieve them of some salary and potentially solve some of the Mariners' issues going forward.

[00:18:01] Before that, just want to remind you guys there's an opportunity to help us out going into this 2025 baseball season.

[00:18:09] This is our third full baseball season as a podcast.

[00:18:12] We've had incredible growth in each of the first two.

[00:18:15] And we want your guys' help to keep growing for a third one.

[00:18:20] What is that opportunity?

[00:18:21] Well, we're looking for sponsors going into this upcoming season.

[00:18:24] So if you're a business owner and you're interested in growing your business's awareness, if you're looking to drive some revenue,

[00:18:30] and you're looking for more promotion and get in front of people's faces, well, then let us help you out.

[00:18:35] If it's a big business, a small business, you own something as small as a local coffee shop or like a big car dealership, anything in between there.

[00:18:43] We'd be happy to help you out.

[00:18:44] You can hear your business promoted here on this podcast.

[00:18:47] We can promote you on our social media channels.

[00:18:49] So we can help each other out with this thing.

[00:18:51] So if you're interested in growing in this 2025 season with us, let us help you.

[00:18:56] You can help us.

[00:18:57] We help you.

[00:18:58] It's a great opportunity.

[00:19:01] Send us an email, marinelayerpod at gmail.com.

[00:19:04] That's marinelayerpod at gmail.com.

[00:19:06] You're welcome to send us a DM on Instagram, on TikTok, on Twitter, on Blue Sky, wherever you feel comfortable.

[00:19:12] Or send us an email, marinelayerpod at gmail.com.

[00:19:16] We'd love to talk to you.

[00:19:18] So let's help out the San Diego Padres, Lyle, if we're talking about helping each other.

[00:19:23] Why don't we help out the San Diego Padres?

[00:19:25] They had their owner, Peter Seidler, pass away this past year.

[00:19:28] They're in a mess when it comes to their ownership.

[00:19:30] There's a lawsuit going on for control of the team.

[00:19:33] The budget is up in the air.

[00:19:35] And when it's up in the air, that usually means payroll comes off the budget.

[00:19:40] That means Luis Arise and his price tag going into this 2025 season seems like one the Padres would move off of.

[00:19:49] So does Luis Arise make sense for the Mariners to target with 30 days to go before pitchers and catchers?

[00:19:57] Let's invite everybody listening now to sit down because class is in session.

[00:20:02] We are about to educate the people on who Luis Arise is.

[00:20:09] Because there is some real misconception out there, not with everybody, but with some baseball fans out there who have a skewed belief of who Luis Arise is.

[00:20:21] Let's say this.

[00:20:23] Would I be interested in the Mariners trading for Luis Arise?

[00:20:26] Yes.

[00:20:27] Because he would make them better.

[00:20:30] But TJ, is it also fair to say that people need to go into this with tempered expectations?

[00:20:39] I would keep an open mind when you think about what kind of player Luis Arise is.

[00:20:45] Please just hear us out.

[00:20:46] Because there are, there's a lot of ways to measure what a productive baseball player is.

[00:20:52] I'll tell you what, if Luis Arise played in the 60s, he'd be in the Hall of Fame.

[00:20:59] Without a doubt.

[00:21:00] But we have a lot more tools now to measure what a productive baseball player is and what you bring to the field.

[00:21:10] So here's, let's start with this.

[00:21:12] Let's start with the positive, Lyle.

[00:21:15] What, in the positive sense, if the Mariners are going to go out and acquire Luis Arise, would he bring?

[00:21:21] He will hit, hit, and hit.

[00:21:24] The guys won three batting titles in 2023.

[00:21:28] He looked like he had a chance to hit 400 at one point in the year.

[00:21:32] People were going crazy about him at that point.

[00:21:34] There was a point in the first half of 2023, people were putting Luis Arise into MVP talks

[00:21:39] because he was doing unprecedented things at the plate in terms of batting average.

[00:21:45] So, Luis Arise can hit.

[00:21:47] He can hit.

[00:21:48] He had a little bit of a down year this year, but by down year for him, he had about a 110 WRC+.

[00:21:53] To be exact, it was 109.

[00:21:55] Still above average.

[00:21:56] He can hit.

[00:21:58] There's no disputing that.

[00:22:01] Now, saying he can hit and truly measuring how Luis Arise produces offense are two totally different things.

[00:22:10] And that's what we're going to evaluate here.

[00:22:12] But, to start with the positives and answer your question, that's what he's going to do.

[00:22:16] He's going to hit for average, and he's going to put bat to ball.

[00:22:20] In terms of contact hitters, I really don't think there is a better one in baseball.

[00:22:24] No one, especially with the strength of pitching nowadays, makes contact and gets on base because of contact at a higher rate than Luis Arise does.

[00:22:37] His bat to ball skills, if that's what you're focusing on as an organization and what you want in a lineup, there is legitimately none better.

[00:22:48] The problem is, that is really his only tool, is bat to ball.

[00:22:53] It's a pretty good tool.

[00:22:54] Well, it's elite.

[00:22:55] It's best in the league good.

[00:22:57] But it is only one.

[00:22:59] For the Mariners' sense too, in a technical sense, he plays second base.

[00:23:03] He played a lot more first base this year, which the Mariners need less of for his role as a left-handed hitting first baseman slash second baseman.

[00:23:13] Now we can get on to the rest of it.

[00:23:16] Luis Arise, to paint his offensive picture.

[00:23:19] Yes, he led the league in batting average.

[00:23:22] Yes, he had a .346 on-base percentage, which is solid.

[00:23:26] It's like a solid on-base percentage.

[00:23:28] It's about average to slightly above average when it comes to an on-base percentage.

[00:23:33] If you looked at Luis Arise and you saw him winning a batting title, would it shock you to hear that he was 81st this year in OPS Plus?

[00:23:42] Wouldn't shock me.

[00:23:43] Might shock some people listening.

[00:23:46] OPS Plus, remember, you have the OPS number, which is on-base plus slugging, and it's normalized on a 100 scale, where a 100's league average.

[00:23:54] Higher is better, lower is worse.

[00:23:57] 81st amongst all major league players.

[00:24:00] You would think, also, Lyle, for leading the league in hits, which he did, had 200 hits on the dot, that he would be up there in total bases too, right?

[00:24:13] Let's play along with the exercise and say, sure.

[00:24:16] Luis Arise this year was 42nd in baseball on total bases, despite leading the league in hits.

[00:24:23] 42nd!

[00:24:25] This was around guys like Ian Happ, J.J. Bledet, and Taylor Ward.

[00:24:32] Now, while Mariner fans at this point would trade for those players, I don't think any of those players are regarded as the best players in baseball, right?

[00:24:41] Yeah, certainly not best players, but we'd be more talking about best hitters, because if we're getting into this here, Luis Arise, by outs above average, is one of the game's worst defenders.

[00:24:51] He does not have range.

[00:24:52] He cannot play quality defense.

[00:24:53] Yet another reason he is such a polarizing player.

[00:24:57] But there's this idea out there, not among everybody.

[00:25:00] I don't want to put everybody in the same bucket.

[00:25:02] But there are legitimately people out there that look at Luis Arise as one of the best hitters in Major League Baseball.

[00:25:09] They say, look, Aaron Judge does certain things with his power.

[00:25:12] Juan Soto does certain things with his power and his walks.

[00:25:15] Sure.

[00:25:16] But they're up there with Luis Arise in terms of best hitters in baseball.

[00:25:20] No.

[00:25:21] That is what we're here to put a stop to today.

[00:25:23] When we said sit down, class is in session, this is what we're laying out for people.

[00:25:27] Would Luis Arise help the Mariners?

[00:25:29] Yes.

[00:25:30] Because this team needs a table setter.

[00:25:32] Ahead of Julio.

[00:25:33] Ahead of Cal.

[00:25:34] Somebody that can set the table.

[00:25:36] But to act like he is one of the game's best hitters is not true in any way, shape, or form.

[00:25:43] That's not who he is.

[00:25:45] You are not the world's most valuable hitter by doing absolutely nothing by hitting singles when you also can't run the bases, you don't walk at all, and you don't play defense.

[00:25:55] Hang with me here as I try and, I'm not going to say mansplain this because I don't really think it is.

[00:26:01] The goal of any offense, for the most part, is to have as many total bases as possible because you're trying to score runs.

[00:26:07] The more bases you get, the more likely you are to touch home plate and score a run.

[00:26:11] Right.

[00:26:11] The problem is Luis Arise does not generate as many bases as you would, as the best hitters in baseball do.

[00:26:20] He just, there is a cap on what he can do.

[00:26:23] Like we see he makes contact at the rate he does, and it's still only enough to be a good offensive player, not a great offensive player.

[00:26:33] And by run production wise, it's almost league average when it gets to that point.

[00:26:38] The other issue is that legitimately, as you mentioned, zero power.

[00:26:43] So there's no other value.

[00:26:45] He hit 314 and still didn't slug 400.

[00:26:48] That's really hard to do.

[00:26:50] Really hard.

[00:26:51] 200 hits, 314 average, sub 400 slug.

[00:26:56] Really, really difficult.

[00:26:57] Just four home runs this year.

[00:26:59] The war speaks for itself, and that comes back to his defense.

[00:27:02] We can talk about his defense here in a second.

[00:27:04] But it's 1.1 F war this year.

[00:27:07] I think it was even one baseball reference wins above replacement.

[00:27:12] That's a sub average big league war.

[00:27:17] The average big leaguer has about a 2, I think 1.7 to 2 war.

[00:27:22] That's below that.

[00:27:24] TJ, can I ask you a question?

[00:27:26] Always.

[00:27:27] I'm an open book.

[00:27:28] What did you think of Jorge Polanco last year?

[00:27:32] Drastically underperformed.

[00:27:35] I think most people would say the same.

[00:27:38] Jorge Polanco had a higher B war than Luis Arise last year.

[00:27:42] Higher.

[00:27:43] What did you think of Josh Rojas from middle of May and on?

[00:27:47] Sucked.

[00:27:48] Josh Rojas had a higher war than Luis Arise last year.

[00:27:52] Is it fair to say that Dylan Moore is a utility player?

[00:27:57] Yes, it is fair.

[00:27:59] And when he plays too long, he also sometimes sucks at the plate.

[00:28:03] Dylan Moore had a higher war than Luis Arise last year.

[00:28:06] By an entire win.

[00:28:07] Entire win.

[00:28:08] I'm not even including guys in here like Victor Robles, Justin Turner, Luke Raley.

[00:28:12] All of those guys were more valuable players than Luis Arise last year.

[00:28:17] So again, let's keep circling back to it.

[00:28:19] Would Arise make this team better?

[00:28:21] Yes.

[00:28:21] Am I interested in the Mariners trading for him?

[00:28:23] Yes.

[00:28:23] That's part of the reason we're sitting here talking about it.

[00:28:25] They need offense and offense on their infield.

[00:28:29] But we need to understand collectively here what he brings to the table.

[00:28:36] This idea that they're acquiring one of the game's best hitters who can turn around an entire offense.

[00:28:40] That is not what he's going to do.

[00:28:42] He will help.

[00:28:43] So he is not the end-all, be-all piece of this offseason.

[00:28:46] Let's do defense.

[00:28:48] The defense is not good.

[00:28:50] Played a lot more first base this year.

[00:28:53] Second base though last year by defensive run saved, Hughes positive.

[00:28:57] That really is unbelievable.

[00:28:59] I don't know how.

[00:28:59] He has not been a terrible defender by defensive run saved his entire career.

[00:29:03] It's been up and down.

[00:29:04] OAA, I will say, hates him.

[00:29:06] And OAA is based on range and Arise not being a great athlete.

[00:29:11] Speed-wise.

[00:29:12] It checks out.

[00:29:15] So it's been like, his defense has been passable in the past.

[00:29:18] And I will say that for another example.

[00:29:20] Because last year, he was worth over 4B war.

[00:29:29] Had a 130 WRC+.

[00:29:33] Had 10 homers.

[00:29:35] Last year's version of Luis Arise with a positive defensive run saved.

[00:29:41] And a 130 WRC+.

[00:29:44] Is completely different than the 2024 Luis Arise, who was worth a fourth as much war.

[00:29:51] Was a significantly worse offensive player.

[00:29:54] Both in the power department, the on-base department, and just the overall run creation department.

[00:30:00] And his defense was good enough.

[00:30:04] If the Mariners went out.

[00:30:06] Sorry.

[00:30:08] If the Mariners went out and thought they were getting 2023 Luis Arise, that's a totally different conversation.

[00:30:15] Than if the Mariners go out and they think the 2024 version of Luis Arise is a good enough baseball player.

[00:30:22] Because frankly, for the contract, if we're talking about value, it's not really worth it.

[00:30:27] But if you think, hey, he comes here and he's the 2023 or 2022 versions, which are very similar players of Luis Arise.

[00:30:38] That's a better conversation to have.

[00:30:40] That's a more selling argument to your fan base when you go out and acquire a player.

[00:30:45] If Luis Arise had put up a 130 WRC+, again in 2024, we'd be having a totally different conversation right now.

[00:30:53] Luis Arise in 2022 and 2023 was really good.

[00:30:56] Now, I'm going to say this again.

[00:30:58] The notion ever that he is one of the best hitters in baseball is wrong.

[00:31:03] That is not who he is.

[00:31:04] He hits for average.

[00:31:05] But when you only hit for singles, don't walk, don't run well, you're not one of the game's best hitters.

[00:31:10] He's a very good hitter at his best.

[00:31:13] He is an all-star level bat at his best.

[00:31:15] That's what a 130 WRC+, hitter is.

[00:31:17] You're an all-star.

[00:31:18] He's a really good hitter at his best.

[00:31:21] He's not one of the game's best hitters.

[00:31:22] And he certainly wasn't in 2024 when he really dipped in just about every category.

[00:31:29] I will say the other part of this is his money.

[00:31:32] Or do you still want to dive into more about his defense?

[00:31:34] You can go on the money.

[00:31:36] I have one comp I want to make.

[00:31:38] Oh, yeah.

[00:31:38] We can get to that after you're done.

[00:31:40] That's a good tease because TJ's comp, we talked about it before the show, is very good.

[00:31:44] So stick around and listen to that.

[00:31:47] But Louisa Rice is owed about $14 million here in 2025.

[00:31:52] And as we know, this franchise has a stupid made-up budget of $15 million.

[00:31:58] So there's only so much they can spend.

[00:32:00] And there's only so much we can talk about the budget because we're basically yelling into an abyss, unfortunately.

[00:32:06] Because nobody will listen to us or anybody for that matter.

[00:32:09] That being said, I will continue to say it's a stupid made-up budget because that's what it is.

[00:32:13] Stupid and made-up.

[00:32:16] Anyway, if that's what they're going to spend and they decide to go trade for Louisa Rice,

[00:32:22] I don't know if they can make another move with the handcuffs and restrictions that they put on themselves.

[00:32:28] Unless you're going to get the Padres to eat some of that money.

[00:32:31] Or if you send some money back to San Diego in return.

[00:32:34] So again, this is where this gets a little bit complicated too.

[00:32:38] Are you okay taking on that money?

[00:32:40] That is essentially you saying this is our headline move of the offseason.

[00:32:44] You probably stick him at...

[00:32:48] Well, you could do a couple different things.

[00:32:50] Probably mostly DH in first base.

[00:32:53] I don't know how much they'd let him play second.

[00:32:54] I'm guessing they'd leave that spot open for Cole Young eventually.

[00:32:58] But even if you do that, you essentially still need two more bats.

[00:33:01] Do you have any room left to go get a third baseman?

[00:33:04] I don't know if you do.

[00:33:06] You don't...

[00:33:08] The idea of a Garver-Arize platoon is not the worst thing in the world.

[00:33:13] The issue with that is that you should not be trading for Louisa Rice if you don't think he can hit lefties.

[00:33:18] Which the splits show he's below average against lefties.

[00:33:22] Yeah, for his career, Louisa Rice has a career OPS against lefties of 681.

[00:33:31] Now against righties, it's 826.

[00:33:33] But 681 against lefties.

[00:33:35] That's not great.

[00:33:36] Based on what the Mariners have rolled out at DH, that sounds like a refreshing, like a sunrise.

[00:33:43] But for that contract and their budget, it doesn't make much sense.

[00:33:48] So our friends over at the Just Baseball show, they were just doing a podcast episode the other day where they were playing GM for the Seattle Mariners.

[00:33:58] And they do it for all 30 teams throughout the offseason.

[00:34:00] Obviously, we've talked about them plenty before as they're friends of ours.

[00:34:03] We're part of the Just Baseball network, as we say at the start of every show.

[00:34:06] And I always say, I don't think there's a national baseball show out there better than those guys.

[00:34:11] So if you're interested to listen to what they have to say about the Mariners or just listening to a national baseball podcast in general,

[00:34:17] I would absolutely 110% recommend go listening to them.

[00:34:20] But they talked about Arise as a good fit for the Mariners in their show.

[00:34:25] And I'll use the trade example they use because they talked about trading away Dylan Moore in that deal.

[00:34:32] Because that would free up about $3 million if they were to do that.

[00:34:36] And break Lyle's heart.

[00:34:37] Yeah, that would be a tough one on my end.

[00:34:39] I'd probably sit and shed some tears here on the podcast.

[00:34:42] That would be a somber day.

[00:34:44] Maybe we'd play Bad Day by Daniel Powder on here if Dylan Moore got traded.

[00:34:48] I might be pretty broken up if that happened.

[00:34:51] Man, part of me doesn't even want to think about that.

[00:34:53] But if they were to do that, that gives them $3 million more.

[00:34:59] Then essentially you're acquiring Arise for $11 million.

[00:35:02] They put other pieces into that trade too, I should say.

[00:35:04] It was Dylan Moore and then a prospect or two.

[00:35:07] But does that do enough for you?

[00:35:10] Because now you have $4 to $5 million left to work with at third base.

[00:35:14] It's a little better.

[00:35:16] You could sign Luis Arias.

[00:35:19] Yay.

[00:35:22] Let me say this again.

[00:35:24] I think we said it at some point either during the year or at the start of the offseason.

[00:35:27] Luis Arias made $5 million American dollars to play 40 major league games.

[00:35:36] You said Arias.

[00:35:37] You said Arias.

[00:35:38] Oh, good call.

[00:35:39] Luis Arias.

[00:35:40] Yes, Arias, who TJ is poorly suggesting they trade for again.

[00:35:45] 40 big league games Luis Arias played in 2024.

[00:35:49] Made $5 million for reasons that were not injury related.

[00:35:55] He played 40 big league games because he was not good enough to be in the big leagues.

[00:35:58] So he spent a good chunk of the year down in AAA.

[00:36:01] And he made $5 million.

[00:36:02] No, I'm good.

[00:36:04] Credit to him, man.

[00:36:05] That's work efficiency.

[00:36:08] It's great.

[00:36:09] $5 million for that.

[00:36:11] Dude, think about it.

[00:36:12] Like, if you were just a regular civilian in New York City and you were walking around telling people,

[00:36:17] well, yeah, my salary is $5 million a year.

[00:36:20] You'd be looked at like a king.

[00:36:23] Luis Arias could buy one of the nicest apartments down in the West Village in New York City or right in Midtown.

[00:36:30] But, yeah, that's what $5 million will do for you.

[00:36:33] And he got all of that to play 40 big league games.

[00:36:36] Just wait until he explains his work day.

[00:36:39] Yeah, exactly.

[00:36:41] Okay.

[00:36:42] Comparison.

[00:36:45] So I was thinking.

[00:36:47] TJ's ready for this.

[00:36:48] So I was thinking.

[00:36:50] If Mariner fans really want Luis Arias,

[00:36:53] I want them to sit back for a second and think about this comparison here.

[00:37:00] This one might shock people.

[00:37:02] But hear me out when it comes to the type of player Luis Arias and the type of player this other player is.

[00:37:10] Luis Arias, as we've articulated, has one tool.

[00:37:14] He hits for contact.

[00:37:15] Doesn't hit for power.

[00:37:17] Doesn't walk.

[00:37:18] Doesn't play defense.

[00:37:19] And can't run the bases.

[00:37:22] When I think of Mariner's players in the past 15 years who have had one elite tool,

[00:37:29] one best in the league tool, and could do nothing else,

[00:37:33] I sat here and I thought for a second.

[00:37:36] Then it hit me.

[00:37:38] Does everyone remember the name Brendan Ryan?

[00:37:42] Now when Brendan Ryan was a Mariner,

[00:37:45] he was their starting shortstop,

[00:37:47] and he was the best defender at short in baseball.

[00:37:50] He was great.

[00:37:52] He put up, I think over a four-war season on baseball reference,

[00:37:56] just playing defense.

[00:37:58] Dude could not hit to save his life.

[00:38:00] And because he couldn't get on base either,

[00:38:02] he would never get on base percentages over 300,

[00:38:04] his base running was deemed almost irrelevant.

[00:38:07] So it was only defense.

[00:38:09] But he was really, really good at defense.

[00:38:13] I'm curious, do people look back and think,

[00:38:16] man, Brendan Ryan was a great Seattle Mariner.

[00:38:18] I mean, he was really, really good.

[00:38:21] I don't think so.

[00:38:22] Because Brendan Ryan was barely getting OPSs over 600 in his time in Seattle

[00:38:26] and was a total anchor on the Mariners lineup.

[00:38:29] But he had one tool that was really, really, really good.

[00:38:33] Do you think people today, Lyle,

[00:38:35] think of Luis Arise and Brendan Ryan in the same conversation?

[00:38:38] Because when we're talking about players that have one elite tool in their tool bag,

[00:38:44] Luis Arise feels like he's propped up a hell of a lot higher than Brendan Ryan is.

[00:38:50] I gotta be honest.

[00:38:51] I could not think of two less similar players.

[00:38:55] I remember hating, no offense to Brendan Ryan,

[00:38:58] but I could not stand to watch him hit.

[00:39:00] He was horrible.

[00:39:02] Well, you're not wrong.

[00:39:05] But his defense was great.

[00:39:07] Luis Arise is the opposite.

[00:39:08] He's going to provide you zero value outside of his bat.

[00:39:13] Mm-hmm.

[00:39:14] Sorry, outside of hitting singles.

[00:39:16] That's going to be it.

[00:39:16] But think about that comparison.

[00:39:18] If you're sitting there and saying,

[00:39:20] I love batting average.

[00:39:21] I love Luis Arise.

[00:39:23] They need a guy to sit in the lineup and make a bunch of contact,

[00:39:28] which is totally fair.

[00:39:31] But him and Brendan Ryan really aren't that dissimilar.

[00:39:35] Their peak seasons are about the same by wins above replacement on Baseball Reference.

[00:39:40] Go look it up.

[00:39:41] It's about the same.

[00:39:42] Both have one elite tool.

[00:39:43] But man, they really struggle at everything else.

[00:39:47] They are really looked at in two different lights.

[00:39:50] I've seen some Mariners fans calling Luis Arise another Ichiro,

[00:39:54] and that is false.

[00:39:56] Yeah, let's see everything else Ichiro did.

[00:39:58] He was an elite defender, and he ran the bases extremely well.

[00:40:01] And he hit for more power.

[00:40:03] This is correct.

[00:40:05] Luis Arise is not Ichiro.

[00:40:07] Sorry.

[00:40:08] Sorry, Luis.

[00:40:08] Luis.

[00:40:08] So, as we start to conclude the Arise topic,

[00:40:12] are you out on this idea?

[00:40:14] Or are you like me?

[00:40:16] No, because the Mariners have an incomplete infield.

[00:40:21] Correct.

[00:40:22] I legitimately can't be out on anything right now,

[00:40:25] because the only...

[00:40:26] Here's what the Mariners infield right now looks like.

[00:40:29] In terms of guys who have played regularly at the big league level,

[00:40:33] you have a shortstop in J.P. Crawford,

[00:40:35] who's coming off the worst year of his career.

[00:40:38] You have a converted outfielder,

[00:40:40] who played a handful of games at first,

[00:40:42] currently entrenched at first base,

[00:40:43] who, by the way, cannot hit lefties.

[00:40:45] And then you have utility players

[00:40:48] and guys who have gotten a cup of coffee in the big leagues

[00:40:51] or haven't played in the big leagues at all,

[00:40:53] occupying second base and third base.

[00:40:55] Does that make you feel good?

[00:40:57] If it doesn't make you feel good, then Luis Arise,

[00:41:00] despite everything we just said,

[00:41:01] should absolutely still be an option.

[00:41:03] And let me add to this too.

[00:41:06] You look at the outfield.

[00:41:08] Love Victor Robles.

[00:41:10] Is he going to repeat what he did last year?

[00:41:12] Not proven.

[00:41:13] Not a guarantee.

[00:41:15] And this offseason has been so engulfed

[00:41:19] by the organization's lack of transactions

[00:41:21] and lack of improving this roster.

[00:41:24] What hasn't been talked about now in months is

[00:41:27] you still have to bank on the guy

[00:41:29] that's on a $470 million deal

[00:41:32] to actually play like that contract says he should.

[00:41:35] Because he didn't do that last year.

[00:41:37] He didn't do it for the better part of five months in 2023.

[00:41:41] So there is an unbelievable amount of

[00:41:44] holes and question marks on this offense right now.

[00:41:47] When was the last time we said the name Julio Rodriguez?

[00:41:50] Oh, it's been weeks if not months.

[00:41:55] Wow.

[00:41:58] Look at what they've done to us this offseason.

[00:42:01] We talked about Cal a lot.

[00:42:04] Man.

[00:42:05] Wow.

[00:42:06] Good for Julio.

[00:42:08] Am I wrong?

[00:42:08] People haven't talked about that in months.

[00:42:09] But yeah, he's penciled into this lineup obviously.

[00:42:13] MLB Network just put him as the number one center fielder

[00:42:15] in baseball on their top 10 list.

[00:42:17] Partly because the position is way down in talent at this point.

[00:42:20] But he didn't have a good enough year last year.

[00:42:23] By any stretch.

[00:42:24] Not for what he's supposed to be in the contract he's being paid.

[00:42:29] I think we'll have a little bit more Julio conversation come February.

[00:42:33] We're going to still take the rest of this month

[00:42:36] to discuss transactions.

[00:42:39] Hoping there are some soon.

[00:42:41] And making the Mariners roster better going into this next season.

[00:42:45] Once February starts,

[00:42:46] then we're going to start getting into preview season.

[00:42:50] And preview season will have quite a bit more Julio.

[00:42:53] Right.

[00:42:53] And less trade speculation.

[00:42:55] Right.

[00:42:55] And now,

[00:42:56] if there are moves that happen in February,

[00:42:59] of course we're going to talk about them plenty.

[00:43:01] But yes,

[00:43:02] by the time February starts getting rolling

[00:43:04] and you get into the time where pitchers and catchers are reporting,

[00:43:07] because it's only a month away now,

[00:43:09] that is when we're going to start to say,

[00:43:11] look,

[00:43:11] where are those rosters currently at?

[00:43:13] We got to start talking about it

[00:43:14] and getting people ready for the season.

[00:43:16] So yes.

[00:43:17] Everyone's excited, right?

[00:43:19] I could not think of a more invigorated fan base right now

[00:43:24] than the Seattle,

[00:43:25] the Seattle Mariners.

[00:43:28] I could not think of a more invigorated fan base.

[00:43:31] I mean,

[00:43:32] our,

[00:43:32] our comments are off the charts these days.

[00:43:35] They really are in every facet between comments on every post,

[00:43:38] between DMs,

[00:43:39] between me reading the text line during Brock and Salk.

[00:43:42] It is,

[00:43:43] it is really something else.

[00:43:45] We were talking to somebody about this this week that I don't ever remember it being like this.

[00:43:52] People were always sad and kind of bogged down,

[00:43:56] but it was kind of the same old Mariners thing.

[00:43:58] They're used to all the losing.

[00:44:00] Once they got a taste of winning and seeing how little this,

[00:44:04] seeing how little the top of this organization appears to care

[00:44:07] and putting together a true winning product,

[00:44:10] it's driven people up a wall.

[00:44:15] Do you think our final two names will make people not go up the wall?

[00:44:23] No.

[00:44:24] No.

[00:44:26] Okay.

[00:44:26] Then Oswaldo,

[00:44:27] Oswaldo Cabrera in less than a minute.

[00:44:31] Oswaldo Cabrera,

[00:44:33] 25 years old,

[00:44:34] entering his age 26 season was a good prospect.

[00:44:36] He plays second and third base.

[00:44:38] Therefore the Mariners are forced to be interested because they do not have a second and third baseman.

[00:44:43] However,

[00:44:44] it doesn't really hit.

[00:44:45] He had 45 really nice games in 2022 when he debuted.

[00:44:49] Since then,

[00:44:50] he has put up a WRC plus of 58 in 2023 and 88 in 2024.

[00:44:56] He can play decent defense,

[00:44:58] solid athlete.

[00:44:59] He doesn't make this team good enough.

[00:45:02] You know,

[00:45:03] the comparison I use for Oswaldo.

[00:45:05] Oh boy.

[00:45:08] Now there's one player that always comes to mind when the main selling point is not what he does in the field.

[00:45:15] Though he is a decent defender at third base.

[00:45:18] Actually,

[00:45:18] I will say that's,

[00:45:19] that's the one thing about him.

[00:45:20] He had seven defensive runs saved at third base this past year.

[00:45:23] So he was a good defender.

[00:45:24] It's not what he does at the plate.

[00:45:28] It's just the fact that he was young and the Mariners acquired this player right around the same age that Oswaldo Cabrera come available from the Yankees.

[00:45:39] Oh yeah,

[00:45:40] it's Abraham Toro.

[00:45:42] If your main selling point is that you are young and that there is nothing else,

[00:45:46] a contending team should not be trading for you to make you a prominent piece.

[00:45:51] Could he be a,

[00:45:52] if the Mariners were serious and he wanted to be a bench player to come off the bench,

[00:45:56] play defense at third?

[00:45:57] Sure.

[00:45:57] I'm sure he's a good athlete too.

[00:45:59] Can run,

[00:45:59] but I'll pass.

[00:46:01] Thanks.

[00:46:02] And the reason we're bringing Oswaldo Cabrera up is because he was reportedly,

[00:46:09] it was reported today.

[00:46:10] We should say that the Yankees have now started to field some calls on him around the league.

[00:46:16] That was the report.

[00:46:19] And we'll see if he actually gets dealt.

[00:46:21] I mean,

[00:46:22] obviously he's club controllable,

[00:46:23] but right now the Yankees are fielding calls on him.

[00:46:25] I believe it was Brendan Cootie who reported that.

[00:46:30] And obviously the Mariners,

[00:46:31] when there's an infielder that's available,

[00:46:33] they have to at least be somewhat listening because right now they just,

[00:46:37] they don't have,

[00:46:38] they don't have the positions.

[00:46:39] They just don't have it right now.

[00:46:41] So yes,

[00:46:42] they're,

[00:46:42] they should be listening.

[00:46:44] Although I don't think that does enough.

[00:46:45] The other guy we'll talk about is Willie Castro,

[00:46:48] who actually kind of like a little bit more.

[00:46:51] He's more productive offensively,

[00:46:53] a one away WRC plus he's worth over three fan graphs,

[00:46:57] wins above replacement.

[00:46:58] And he plays five positions while being a positive defender by OAA.

[00:47:03] So it's like Dylan Moore,

[00:47:05] but better.

[00:47:07] If you're going to pick between these two,

[00:47:09] you should be targeting Willie Castro.

[00:47:11] Willie Castro is a good player.

[00:47:13] He's not a great player.

[00:47:15] But he'd help.

[00:47:16] There's no doubt he'd help.

[00:47:18] And for a third base market that is as razor thin as it is,

[00:47:23] you could put them at third base.

[00:47:26] Now he's not perfect.

[00:47:27] No player the Mariners are going to try and acquire at this point will be.

[00:47:31] Strikes out a decent bit.

[00:47:33] It's about 25% of the time.

[00:47:35] He's not an elite defender.

[00:47:37] He is an okay defender.

[00:47:39] He graded out as one out above average for the year.

[00:47:42] I wouldn't say he thrives at any of the specific positions he plays.

[00:47:46] He just plays a lot of different positions.

[00:47:48] So the versatility is something that can help.

[00:47:52] But he can hit.

[00:47:53] Again,

[00:47:54] he's been above average the last two years.

[00:47:55] And he's been a two and a half to three war player.

[00:47:58] If he's even a two war player,

[00:47:59] if the Mariners acquire him,

[00:48:01] and he is a league average bat,

[00:48:04] that's probably what they're looking for.

[00:48:06] Josh Rojas was a league average player by war,

[00:48:11] maybe even slightly above that last year.

[00:48:13] But so much of that was from his defense and what he did at the plate in the

[00:48:15] first five to six weeks.

[00:48:17] The Mariners need a little more consistency from where that comes from than

[00:48:21] what Rojas did last year.

[00:48:23] If Castro can be that,

[00:48:24] he'd be intriguing.

[00:48:26] If Castro did this season for the 2024 Mariners instead of the 2024 Tigers,

[00:48:32] he would have been like the third best player on the roster.

[00:48:34] Third best everyday player.

[00:48:36] Right.

[00:48:37] Just for some context.

[00:48:38] Yes.

[00:48:38] Now I will outline a couple of concerns here because again,

[00:48:43] no player they will acquire is going to be the perfect fit at this point.

[00:48:47] Struggled in the second half last year.

[00:48:49] He had a 627 OPS in the second half.

[00:48:52] So his first half was certainly better.

[00:48:55] Well,

[00:48:55] actually,

[00:48:56] obviously it was better.

[00:48:56] He was an all-star last year.

[00:48:58] So yeah,

[00:49:00] he's also,

[00:49:02] I wouldn't quite say a platoon bat,

[00:49:04] but it's not like he's great against left-handed pitching.

[00:49:07] He's about a 685 OPS guy for his career against lefties.

[00:49:11] He's a little over 700 against righties.

[00:49:14] The one thing that is the most interesting to me about Willie Castro,

[00:49:18] and this still falls into the concern category.

[00:49:22] Would you think of Minnesota as a pitcher's park?

[00:49:25] If you were to just look at it,

[00:49:28] no other previous context.

[00:49:29] You think about the cold weather,

[00:49:31] you think about the dimensions of the park,

[00:49:33] et cetera.

[00:49:34] Would you?

[00:49:36] The park's so interesting.

[00:49:37] So short answer,

[00:49:39] I'm going to say no.

[00:49:41] Right.

[00:49:42] I think it's more due to the personnel because the twins in the last six years

[00:49:46] have had the greatest home run hitting team of all time and a couple year run

[00:49:51] of really,

[00:49:52] really good pitching.

[00:49:54] But it's interesting.

[00:49:55] By Park Factor on Baseball Savant,

[00:49:58] which we've talked about plenty,

[00:50:00] Target Field ranks fifth.

[00:50:03] Top five hitter friendly ballpark in the game,

[00:50:06] where obviously T-Mobile is last.

[00:50:08] It's not very big.

[00:50:09] No,

[00:50:10] I just,

[00:50:10] I never,

[00:50:12] ever,

[00:50:12] ever would have guessed that had I not been looking at Park Factor's.

[00:50:16] Because it just doesn't feel like a pitcher's park.

[00:50:19] It feels decently big.

[00:50:20] The dimensions might not be,

[00:50:22] but the tall wall in right field and,

[00:50:24] and,

[00:50:24] and in right center as well makes it feel a little bit big.

[00:50:26] And the fact they play in just brutal weather early in the year with no roof.

[00:50:33] They need a roof.

[00:50:34] Makes it.

[00:50:35] That's what I miss the most.

[00:50:37] What's up?

[00:50:37] That's what I miss the most.

[00:50:39] Oh,

[00:50:40] come,

[00:50:41] come regular season time.

[00:50:42] We'll be screaming about it once again.

[00:50:45] Anyway.

[00:50:46] I can't wait.

[00:50:46] If there's like a rain out in a spring training game.

[00:50:48] No,

[00:50:49] I can't wait.

[00:50:50] You expect them to put a roof on a spring training stadium?

[00:50:54] Yep.

[00:50:55] Yeah.

[00:50:55] Yes.

[00:50:57] I would say that that does draw a little bit of a concern though,

[00:51:01] because he was playing in a hitters park for Moat for his time when he was in Minnesota and he hit better at home than he did on the road by a decent margin.

[00:51:10] So not a perfect fit,

[00:51:13] but would he make the team better on paper?

[00:51:15] Yes.

[00:51:16] Anyone cost that much?

[00:51:17] Cause he's got a year of control.

[00:51:20] Right.

[00:51:21] Right.

[00:51:22] Yeah.

[00:51:22] He shouldn't cost you much of really anything.

[00:51:25] No.

[00:51:25] When you look at what Jorge Polanco went for last year,

[00:51:28] it was a decent return.

[00:51:30] Castro shouldn't cost that because he wasn't the play.

[00:51:32] He is not the player that Jorge Polanco was when he was traded over and Polanco had two technical years of team control with the club option and Castro has one.

[00:51:42] Yeah.

[00:51:43] No pressure,

[00:51:43] Jerry.

[00:51:44] We are actually less than 30 days till pitchers and catchers,

[00:51:48] right?

[00:51:49] Are we?

[00:51:49] Are we less?

[00:51:50] Are we exactly?

[00:51:52] I think we're right at the dot while we're recording this right at the dot,

[00:51:55] but let's just say a month away.

[00:51:59] Tick tock.

[00:52:01] Yes.

[00:52:02] Tick tock is right.

[00:52:04] Wow.

[00:52:04] Will the Mariners make a transaction before we record next?

[00:52:07] We're on an absolute tear here.

[00:52:10] All off season saying no.

[00:52:11] So I'm going to continue to say no.

[00:52:14] I'm going to continue to,

[00:52:16] I'm going to continue to beat the house here.

[00:52:19] And you shouldn't have this much luck against the house when you play against the house,

[00:52:22] but I'm going to keep rolling.

[00:52:24] I've hit double zero a million times this off season saying no,

[00:52:27] they will not make a trade.

[00:52:29] So I'm going to pick up the sound we're going to play when they actually do make a transaction.

[00:52:33] When you finally say yes.

[00:52:34] I'll say it again after being quiet all off season.

[00:52:38] As LeAngelo Ball would say,

[00:52:39] I might swerve,

[00:52:40] bend that corner.

[00:52:41] Whoa.

[00:52:43] Cause all of a sudden they swerved the off season and finally took a turn to start making trades.

[00:52:49] Bregman and Santander in one day coming up.

[00:52:53] That might legitimately,

[00:52:54] I'm going to say something really sad here.

[00:52:57] That legitimately might be a Mount Rushmore day in Mariner history.

[00:53:04] In the same day,

[00:53:05] that would essentially remind me of the day the Clippers acquired Paul George and Kawhi Leonard on the same day within five minutes of each other.

[00:53:13] A team that's had no success,

[00:53:15] doesn't ever get to the Western Conference Finals,

[00:53:18] doesn't win NBA titles,

[00:53:19] has a day like that happen.

[00:53:21] That's a Mount Rushmore day for the Clippers.

[00:53:23] That might be a Mount Rushmore day for the Mariners.

[00:53:25] Think about it.

[00:53:26] What else is there?

[00:53:27] There's there.

[00:53:28] I mean,

[00:53:29] acquisition wise,

[00:53:30] the only other one I'd even put up there is.

[00:53:31] No.

[00:53:32] Acquiring Robbie.

[00:53:34] And aside from acquiring Robbie,

[00:53:36] there's the Edgar double.

[00:53:38] There's,

[00:53:38] I'm sure when.

[00:53:39] Frazier double.

[00:53:40] What's that?

[00:53:41] Frazier double.

[00:53:42] Yeah.

[00:53:42] That and the Cal clincher.

[00:53:44] I mean,

[00:53:44] look,

[00:53:44] there's some ones you can put into the category that are up for discussion.

[00:53:47] The Carlos Guillen bunt back in.

[00:53:50] I think that was,

[00:53:51] it was either 2000,

[00:53:53] Yeah.

[00:53:53] I was going to say 2000.

[00:53:54] The bunt when they beat Cleveland in 2000,

[00:53:57] I'm sure winning 116 games that day.

[00:54:00] Well,

[00:54:00] yeah,

[00:54:01] that's in there.

[00:54:01] So look,

[00:54:02] there's some,

[00:54:03] there's some other ones you can argue for,

[00:54:04] but the fact that it's in the conversation.

[00:54:07] Unreal.

[00:54:09] If we're talking about perception swingers,

[00:54:11] that would,

[00:54:12] man,

[00:54:13] what a conversation that would be outside of like the fucking transactions,

[00:54:16] which is just insane.

[00:54:17] We're having this conversation because it's never going to happen.

[00:54:19] But the,

[00:54:21] the perception change would be unbelievable.

[00:54:25] Seriously.

[00:54:26] Oh,

[00:54:26] we'd be sitting on here screaming,

[00:54:28] but it would be all positivity.

[00:54:30] Yeah.

[00:54:31] Be a lot of words to eat.

[00:54:33] Oh,

[00:54:34] I would happily,

[00:54:36] happily,

[00:54:36] not just eat them,

[00:54:37] wolf them down,

[00:54:40] wolf them down.

[00:54:41] But guess what?

[00:54:42] For me to do that,

[00:54:44] they actually have to give money to said player to sign and play in Seattle.

[00:54:51] And I got to tell you this ownership group.

[00:54:54] I have a feeling that they're the type of people that it hurts their soul when they spend $20.

[00:55:02] Well,

[00:55:03] that's how I,

[00:55:03] that's how I,

[00:55:04] kind of hard to not spend $20 in Seattle.

[00:55:06] So they were probably in a lot of pain.

[00:55:08] Well,

[00:55:09] you hate to see it.

[00:55:11] All right.

[00:55:12] Actually,

[00:55:13] sorry.

[00:55:13] You got to answer too.

[00:55:14] They make it a move before the next pod.

[00:55:17] All right,

[00:55:18] good.

[00:55:18] So you're,

[00:55:18] you're listen,

[00:55:20] there's nothing better than riding with your boys.

[00:55:24] And TJ and I,

[00:55:25] we're,

[00:55:25] we're,

[00:55:26] we are one.

[00:55:27] Yes,

[00:55:28] we ride.

[00:55:29] And,

[00:55:29] and when the boys are trying to play the house and keep throwing their money on double zero

[00:55:34] and it keeps hitting what a time.

[00:55:37] So yes,

[00:55:38] we will keep putting our money on double zero.

[00:55:40] They're not making a trade before the next pod.

[00:55:42] If they do again,

[00:55:43] we will happily come on here and say we were wrong.

[00:55:46] All right.

[00:55:47] That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Liar podcast.

[00:55:50] You guys know the drill.

[00:55:51] You want to listen to the full form podcast,

[00:55:52] do so wherever you get your audio pods,

[00:55:55] make sure to download,

[00:55:56] make sure to rate and review,

[00:55:58] leave it five stars.

[00:55:58] It really does help us out.

[00:55:59] If you do same thing on YouTube,

[00:56:01] although on YouTube,

[00:56:02] you like you comment,

[00:56:04] and please,

[00:56:04] please hit that subscribe button.

[00:56:06] That is the best way you can support us,

[00:56:07] the channel,

[00:56:08] et cetera.

[00:56:09] Hit subscribe on YouTube.

[00:56:10] It takes one second to do literally follow us on social media to Instagram,

[00:56:16] Tik TOK,

[00:56:16] Twitter,

[00:56:17] YouTube shorts,

[00:56:17] blue sky.

[00:56:18] We're posting content every single day at Marine layer pod.

[00:56:21] And one final time,

[00:56:22] if you're interested in sponsors,

[00:56:23] we would love to work with you guys.

[00:56:25] Send us a DM or send us an email,

[00:56:28] Marine layer pod at gmail.com.

[00:56:30] That's TJ.

[00:56:31] I'm Lyle.

[00:56:32] As always,

[00:56:32] we thank you guys for tuning in.

[00:56:34] We'll talk to you soon.

[00:56:36] We'll talk to you soon.