Episode 199: Reacting To The Mariners Signing Donovan Solano

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 199 of the Marine Layer Podcast. The Mariners have finally made their first big league roster acquisition of the offseason. We will discuss everything around the new Mariner, Donovan Solano. Here's your guys reminder before we start this podcast. Make sure you're following us on all our platforms. If you're listening to the podcast, do us a big favor and download. Make sure you rate and review. Leave a five star review.

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[00:00:57] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording Monday afternoon, January 13th. And Lyle, the Seattle Mariners have done it. They said it couldn't be done. Said it couldn't be done. I gotta be honest, my mood's slightly ruined because we found out the Roki Sasaki news slightly before we started recording.

[00:01:21] But, if that's a teaser for anybody, this episode we're recording right now is an emergency pod, which will be out here today on Tuesday, the day of the Donovan Solano signing. If you want to hear more about Roki Sasaki, we're going to talk about him as the main subject for Wednesday. So, back-to-back episodes now with this news. Solano now, Sasaki Wednesday. But in terms of the move, yay, I guess. They did do something. They did.

[00:01:48] It also took them two and a half months to find a platoon first baseman as their first move of the offseason, and it costed three and a half million dollars. Without diving too much into Roki and saving it for Wednesday, is it just a coincidence that they happened to sign Donovan Solano on the day Roki was eliminating teams? Well, you better wait till Wednesday to hear our thoughts. Better wait till Wednesday. We may have some. We do have some. We do.

[00:02:18] Makes you think. Yeah. Does make you think. Look. All that aside, is this a fine signing? Yes. Should this be their third or fourth signing of the offseason? Also yes. But in terms of what role Donovan Solano will fill, it's not his fault the Mariners have not made other moves. And for a guy that hits lefties really well, had a good year in a very, very significant pitcher's park last season, has been a consistent 280 hitter for the last few years.

[00:02:48] Yeah. He will fill a role. This is a fine signing. Like, I'm not jumping for joy. I'm not mad about it. It's a fine signing. It should help the roster. We've known this is the type they wanted a type of player like this for a while. It's the reason they offered Carlos Santana a two-year deal. It's why they would have easily left the door open for Justin Turner to return if he wanted to.

[00:03:12] But at this point of the offseason, you observe the free agent market and you see what you still need and what is still available out there. And through some communication channels, I'm sure they observed Donovan Solano and his bat were available for three and a half million dollars, which is about as cheap as you're going to get. At that rate, I will take it because there is a role for Donovan Solano on this team.

[00:03:34] Whether he's playing on the bench or he's the right-handed part of the first base platoon, they're going to need his bat in some spots in this lineup and around the diamond that will make them better and be better than what the Mariners had at these positions last season. Donovan Solano hits a lot. He's old. He's going to be 37 this upcoming season. He's no spry chicken at this point.

[00:04:01] But the Mariners knew they needed someone who not only could hit, but was a veteran presence. And he was a veteran presence on the San Diego Padres this past season. And now they will get that veteran presence that they're actually being proactive to go get. They're not waiting until halfway through the season to go get one when their roster clearly looks overmatched in some capacity and falling apart and inconsistent. However you want to describe it. Well now they are going to have someone at least at the start of the season.

[00:04:30] Which is nice to see. Two responses to that. Number one, you say we know the Mariners have been targeting a player like this. You mean someone who's cheap. Carlos Santana wasn't that cheap. No, he was cheap. He was cheap. Cheap compared to Juan Soto, but not cheap for the Mariners. He's cheap compared to Christian Walker. Cheap compared to Santander. Cheap compared to guys that would have actually moved the needle on this roster. Yes. Well, they want. Yes. They wanted a cheap veteran first baseman. Correct.

[00:05:00] Yes. That is my point. And again, that's not a knock on Donovan Solano. This is the organization not or just refusing to spend money. The second point to that is. No, I did not forget my second point here. I'm trying to remember what you said. You were just talking it through. No, I didn't forget. I didn't forget. If you want a sales pitch while you think of your point on Donovan Solano. Before we just go and read through his stats, Arm of Just Baseball, one of the co-founders

[00:05:27] of Just Baseball, who owns the podcast network this podcast is hosted on, tweeted about Donovan Solano. I'm convinced Donovan Solano can hit anywhere in the universe. Anywhere. And T-Mobile Park may just be the final boss when it comes to proving he can hit in almost any park of baseball, which I think people really want to hear because there's a pretty big paranoia out there that hitters come to Seattle among the players and the fans. The players come to Seattle and they don't hit.

[00:05:56] I did my research on this. Lyle was curious. Oh, let's go. If that's the case, what has Donovan Solano done in the toughest places to hit in Major League Baseball? Because that's the important thing. If he can hit in T-Mobile Park, well, then things change a lot for how people perceive how productive he's going to be. This past year in San Diego, I went back and I looked. I filtered it.

[00:06:22] I said, okay, how well did you hit in the bottom five parks and park factor in Major League Baseball this year? Those bottom five parks were San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, New York, and Tampa Bay. In those parks this past year, Donovan Solano had a 120 WRC plus with an OPS of about 770. And then if you stretch it back the last four years, he's got an OPS of a little bit over,

[00:06:52] I think it's around 750, but has been about an average to a slightly above average hitter in those parks over the past four seasons. While it's not as productive as some of his better offensive seasons in totality, which can be up near 800 in the OPS world, it definitely is better than some of the production the Mariners have gotten from guys like Jorge Polanco, Mitch Hanager, Mitch Garver, to name a few.

[00:07:21] Adam Frazier, Tommy Lastella, et cetera, et cetera. Oh, but hey, Lyle, contact hitters save the offense. Oh, they do. We can get to that in a second. I was going to just tell people, you said New York. You mean Citi Field, the Mets. Citi Field, yeah. Not Yankee Stadium. Right. So that's number one. Number two, again, this is a good signing. It's a perfectly fine signing. That's what I should say. And for the dollars they're giving to Solano and investing into him, it is a good signing

[00:07:48] because he is going to fill a role as long as he continues to hit the way he's hit. I remember what I was going to counter with to your first statement, my second counter, which is you talk about the Mariners now having a veteran presence with Solano. Do you really put this in the same bucket as having a Carlos Santana or a Justin Turner? Because Donovan Solano started last year in AAA for the Padres. He got up and then he played well. But are the Mariners going to look to him in the clubhouse as this revered, experienced,

[00:08:18] veteran with all this playoff success the way somebody like Turner is? I don't know if it's really that. I don't think it'll be the same level as Turner, but to answer your question, will it have an impact? We don't know until they start playing games. Right. But we know Turner had an impact. Actually, we can get to Turner here in a little bit too because Solano ties back to Turner a little bit. But yes, for everybody's worry about hitting in pitcher-friendly parks, parks. In terms of park factor, you listed off all the parks and San Diego specifically was

[00:08:47] the second most pitcher-friendly park in the league last year behind Seattle. There was a decent margin between the two as we know Seattle's the toughest one to hit in. It was about a 5% difference. But if he's hitting in San Diego and he had an 800 OPS at home last year, then you would like to think he can, to some extent, hit in Seattle too. And he's not a guy that's going to rely on his power, which is nice.

[00:09:15] Now, how much of an impact does this have on the Mariners' offense? That's the big question I think people want to know. We say good signing. What level of impact does this have? Well, he's going to platoon. This likely will be the opposite end of the first base platoon with Luke Raley. Donovan Solano last year had over an 800 OPS against left-handed pitching. It was about 816. So, makes perfect sense on paper. Luke Raley absolutely mashes right-handed pitching and can't hit lefties.

[00:09:44] If you get Solano to hit lefties, you platoon those guys on most days over at first base and think to yourself, can we get about an 815, 820 combined OPS between these guys if Raley repeats what he did last year and Solano somewhat repeats what he did last year, even if it's more like 790 to 800? Maris will take that right to the bank as a win. So, yes, that is what they're banking on as being a good signing. And that's what we are saying when we're insinuating this is a good signing. This is not them signing Juan Soto.

[00:10:14] Nobody should even need us to say that. It's not them signing Christian Walker. But he'll play a role. Well, $3.5 million is the reason he wasn't just sought after like no other in free agency. But he should fill a role and be a productive player to some extent and the role he's expected to fill. Now, could he end up playing some third base? Could the Mariners move him around if they end up acquiring somebody else this offseason? If they were to bring Turner back? If they were still to make a trade for somebody that's primarily going to play first base?

[00:10:44] Yeah, they could. Solano can go play third base. He's not great over there, but he could play third base. And we know the third base market's non-existent. So, that's what you mean by good signing. It is not some blue chip marquee free agent move, but it should play some sort of role. What he should be doing, either, like you said, platoon or just coming off the bench. Because I think that's the role he's going to be in at this point of his career. That's how the Padres treated him last year.

[00:11:14] And he had one of the better hitting seasons of his career. And you just wonder at this point at 37, which he'll play next year, just how durable he would be. He's had injury issues in the past. Listen to these games played by year. Kind of concerning. It's in the Mitch Garver bucket of inconsistent time on the diamond. In 2019, he played 81 games. The 2020 season, by percentage, is actually his highest percentage played.

[00:11:42] He played 54 of the 60 games that year. In 2021, he played 101 games. In 2022, he played 80 games. And last year, a career high two years ago in Minnesota, 134 games. But also, it was not a really good hitting season for him. He was pretty bad that year. And then in 2024, last year, in a part-time role, played in 96 games. The expectation then, at that point, should not be that he's going to go out and play 150 games for this team.

[00:12:11] Because his best role, as you said, is going to be the right-handed side of that first base platoon. Where lefties are starting on the mound 30 to 25% of the time. Or coming off the bench to hit. Something that Luke Arkins talked about a couple weeks ago with us is the Mariners' need for quality bench players. They didn't really have, when it came to bats, someone to come off the bench and pinch hit in a late-game scenario. To come off and put up a competitive at-bat and have you feel good about it.

[00:12:41] Because I don't, at this point, if you're putting Mitch Garver in and it's a righty on the mound, you're not comfortable. If it's Mitch Hanegar, you're not comfortable. No matter who's on the mound right now. And whichever other young guy in a platoon, whether it be Ryan Bliss, for example. Or you say Solano plays more third base. And Tyler Locklear, for some reasons, on the bench. There's not quite as much trust there. But Donovan Solano would be a guy you would trust in that opportunity. And might I add Demo, too, who has opportunities.

[00:13:11] Who's had a lot of opportunities. But has struggled, as we've talked about at Timo Park. He struggled against righties as well. Solano makes you feel a little bit more comfortable in that role. That you have someone, just to supplement, really. Just to supplement and raise the floor of your roster. I'd be more than happy to see Donovan Solano be a bench bat. The only thing with that is, if he's going to be a bench bat, you probably have to move on from one of the Mitches. I don't think you can have all those guys on the bench. You're speaking. Very logical move, Sol.

[00:13:41] Mm-hmm. Yes. Now, maybe that's what'll happen. And maybe Solano really will be a bench player. He'll play some time at third base. Maybe the Mariners have something up their sleeve to do at first base. I think we may talk Tristan Casas on Friday. Because he's still technically out there. And we can save that. But if they were to do something like that. And make one really big impact move. Something like that. Then maybe that's a role where Solano goes. Is a bench bat. Play some third base. Can mix in at first when he has to. DH if he needs to.

[00:14:10] Things like that. But Solano shouldn't really cut you off from doing anything else that you want to do. Including if you want to bring back Justin Turner. Now, again, if you're going to have Solano and Turner on the roster. You probably have to move on from one of the Mitches. And Solano would probably have to play some more third base. But you can make it work. There's nothing about Solano that should really cut you off from doing much else. But this is the Mariners we're talking about. Oh, I forgot. Sorry. I almost. I mean.

[00:14:41] I mean, signing guys isn't a smart strategy. I know this is supposed to be a positive episode. Because they signed somebody. But we still have to get a not a smart strategy in there. I have three more points I want to hit on here in this episode. So the first one. Since you just brought up Justin Turner. Let's talk about Justin Turner. The comparison of this. Is that. At least that I made at the beginning. Is that Solano will occupy the Justin Turner role. But as you just said. They could have them both. So here's the situation with Turner. As it seems out there. Turner is going to be on the more expensive side.

[00:15:11] When it comes to signing older veteran. First base only players. I think Justin Turner's number is going to be closer to $10 million. Rather than $3.5 million. Do you feel that. That the value Justin Turner would have brought this team. Would have been worth the extra potentially. $8 million. No. But I also don't actually think he ends up getting that money. We'll see what he gets in the end. I feel like it'll be more like five. Especially at this point if he's unsigned. We'll see.

[00:15:40] I think it depends on the team. Like the Dodgers wouldn't. Don't care if they. They defer it in the next 12 years. Well and Turner himself might be happy to take $3 million. Just to play one more year with the Dodgers. And try to win a ring with that team. One more. Second point here. We talked a lot about Luis Arise last week. Luis Arise and Donovan Solano played on the same team in San Diego last year.

[00:16:08] Arise played 150 games. Donovan Solano played 96. Lala which one do you think was more valuable by a baseball reference war? Well we've essentially had people telling us that Luis Arise is the next Ty Cobb. And we have had people telling us that they take Elie De La Cruz over Luis. Or sorry that they take Luis Arise over Elie De La Cruz. So clearly. Clearly Arise blows Solano out of the water. I mean he's one of the best hitters ever. They were the exact same last year. No that's not possible.

[00:16:38] Again Luis Arise is Ty Cobb. Who do you think had a higher OPS? Ty Cobb aka Luis Arise. It was Donovan Solano. Again how is that possible? We were told Luis Arise is like the greatest thing since sliced bread. OPS plus? Our guy Donovan Solano? Yeah. Well. Again I thought Luis Arise was the greatest player ever. Hey but he won the batting title. Well. Again I would have been more than happy and still would be more than happy for the Mariners

[00:17:08] to trade for Arise. Although I don't know about now if you're going to try to make him play 150 games at second base. God that would be a disaster defensively. But yes he would help the team. But again this idea that people are out there saying I'd rather have him than Elie. No you would not. And if you think that re-evaluate and then come back to the table. Let's get back on track here with Donovan Solano without Luis Arise. So here's the situation though.

[00:17:37] So it was Arise at $14 million for a year or Solano at $3.5 million for this year. You would have had to trade for Luis Arise. And in terms of type of player Luis Arise is from a contact perspective a unicorn because he strikes out like 4% of the time. Donovan Solano struck out nearly 22% of the time this year which is about league average. So that like that part of it is not necessarily close. But it's both a high average a contact focus.

[00:18:06] Not a ton of power but Donovan Solano still hits for a little bit more power than than Luis Arise does. Well it's not the exact same. The idea of it is similar in what you're adding. Right. Right. And for all of that you can very very well argue Solano was the more valuable and logical guy to add. Again he cost nothing but $3.5 million aka short term money.

[00:18:35] Arise was not that was not the case. He would have cost real money and pieces in a trade. Solano by war same player by OPS plus better player by OPS better player. Both guys probably would have been a first base slash DH. Yes. This one makes way more sense especially at the money than Arise. Last question I'm going to propose to you here as it relates to the Mariners roster last season. So Donovan Solano cost about as much as Josh Rojas would have cost this year.

[00:19:05] Who do you think would have been a better better addition? Add it A with an A. Addition. At this point probably Solano and I know by war that wouldn't back that up and it would say Rojas but you just cannot have another dead spot like that in the lineup for four and a half months of the season. We'll keep using this number. Josh Rojas had a 555 OPS from May 15th till the end of the year. That just can't happen.

[00:19:33] I know he was a great defender and and he was but you need offense. You want good defense at third base Dylan Moore can play some third base and maybe he won't be quite Rojas level but he'll be perfectly fine over there. You need offense and Solano will hit. This is where the different the argument against war comes in or wars flaws I think are shown because for a team like the Mariners they need Solano's tool set a little bit more than

[00:20:03] Josh Rojas's even though if Josh Rojas were a play on the Mariners again this other upcoming season his war as you said would probably still be a little bit higher even though Solano would bring I feel like more wins to the ball club based on what they need him to do because if you had you had Rojas on your roster again next year you're having all of these same conversations about this offense with less resources to do it and less roster space.

[00:20:30] So just shuffling that around and switching the type of player you have in this role Solano definitely makes sense even if it's not going to show up in the war category. Solano's never been a big war guy. I don't think he's ever crossed two fangraphs wins above replacement in a season in his career. No but you know what he's been a good WRC plus guy look at from 19 and on I'll just list it off

[00:20:51] by year. 116, 125, 105 his one down year was 2022 when it was at 99 but that's essentially league average. Then 116 and 23 and 118 in 2024. So he might not be a big war guy but all that says he should hit and the fact he hits in pitchers parks should play a factor too. It's pretty good. Mm-hmm. One last round of applause for Mr. Jerry DiPoto who is officially on the board. Woo!

[00:21:22] Now how about signing Roki Sasaki? Oh wait no. There's another teaser for Wednesday's pod. Better tune in because we're going to talk about it. We are going to talk about it. What will they do next? We'll have to find out. We'll certainly be waiting but the fact the first move of the offseason is finally in place there is a sense of refreshment there. It might not be the most overwhelming move in the world but there is some sense of refreshment of finally something else is in place. There's no doubt. So. Yep.

[00:21:52] Yes. Yeah. No doubt. All right. That'll just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full form podcast you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Do us a big favor guys. Download these episodes. Make sure you rate and review. Leave the five star review. Again those Apple ratings are really shooting up and we're getting some reviews which we're happy about but we want to get even more. As many as we can get is the better. So keep leaving those reviews. Please leave it five stars. It helps us out a bunch.

[00:22:20] Make sure you're liking commenting and subscribing on YouTube. If you're watching just hit that subscribe button and take a second to do it. That's the best way you can support us over there. And on social media Instagram. TikTok. Twitter. YouTube. Shorts. Blue Sky. Follow us on all those platforms where we're always posting content. At Marine Layer Pod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.