Episode 203: If Triston Casas Isn't A Fit, Then Who Is?

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 203 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We'll evaluate the current state of the Mariners offseason, why they've done what they've done, and where they can go from here. There's still a couple names that we've talked about and we'll talk about again. Tristan Casas and Jose Iglesias. Heads up for you guys. This show is brought to you by our friends over at Pagatches Pub 85. You guys will hear us continue to talk about it. Awesome place to hang out. You guys want to watch some games? It's NFC Championship weekend this weekend.

[00:00:29] I think I've got the Chiefs in the first game and I've got the Eagles in the second game. So if you want to go see a potential Super Bowl rematch get set up, head over there with your friends. It's an awesome place to go hang out and watch the games. There's 20 TVs in that place. There's also great food, great drinks, and if you go during happy hour, you can get some awesome drink specials, which are $3 and $4. $3 and $4 happy hour, you guys. It's a great, great, phenomenal deal even.

[00:00:54] So if you want all of that, which are 2 to 6 p.m. from Monday through Friday, and like I said, some great food, great time with your friends, it's all over at Pagatches Pub 85 over in Kirkland. And a reminder, go rate and review if you're listening to these podcasts. Hit the download button on the audio side if you're watching on YouTube. Please hit subscribe. It's the best way you can support us, the channel. Make sure to like, make sure to drop a comment, and follow us everywhere on social media.

[00:01:21] You can find us on all our channels. We're posting every day at MarineLayerPod. Let's get it rolling. And we welcome you to this episode of the MarineLayer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording on Thursday evening, January 23rd.

[00:01:50] Lyle, we put a poll out there yesterday about the offseason. How do you think people reacted to it? Hmm. How do I think people reacted to a poll about the Mariners offseason? Pretty rationally, to be honest with you. In fact, I think people have been reinvigorated by their love of the game after seeing our poll.

[00:02:15] The poll asked a simple question. How would you grade the Mariners offseason? And it gave you four choices. A, B, C, or D. Well, I don't think the fans are too happy with the four options. Because on Twitter, I posted the poll. I believe it is currently sitting with 53 replies. Mm-hmm. Oh. Trying to say F.

[00:02:45] Our voters, sorry, not our voters, yeah, our voters and our listeners saw this poll. People wanted their voices heard. Because at the end of the timing of this poll, we had thousands of people combined across the platforms voting. Thousands. And I gotta tell you, the amount of D offseason grades compared to the number of As is flabbergasting. Might even be more flabbergasting the amount of comments we got saying, Why is D the last option?

[00:03:15] Where is F? And honestly, TJ, I've got the same question for you. You decided not to put F on there. That was a bold move. It was a bit of an oversight on my part. I probably should have done two grades per section. A, B, C, D, E, F, and then Z. What is E? I don't know, dog. There are people DMing us saying, Can I vote Z? What's lower than F? F minus, minus, minus, minus, minus. No, I'll tell you what's lower than F.

[00:03:45] As Denzel Crocker would say, who we brought up plenty this offseason about his F grades, he can give them a super F. Man, and I just totally, totally tripped on my own voice just saying that. Yeah, a super F. Thank you, Denzel Crocker. There were people who voted A. Do you think they legitimately voted A? Or do you think it was a mistake? I'm going to say one of two things is possible.

[00:04:11] They were either drunk or they wanted to be a trailblazer like the one voter who didn't vote for each euro and say, Hey, I'm going to be the standalone here. I'm going to set the standard. I'm going to pave the path. Yeah, I think that's what happened. I did think that was a fun experiment. I realized we hadn't done a poll in a while, and I thought, well, what better time? People are in a great mood right now. Let's feel the pulse of the fan base in a simplistic letter grade.

[00:04:40] So in case you're curious, most of the Mariners fan base views the Mariners offseason as a D grade or lower. Well, I'll ask you. We weren't going to do it this morning because we were hosting Brock and Salk. We did it with Salk, which was a blast, by the way. If you guys weren't listening live, go check out the podcast. They're out there. We really had a good time. It was a ton of fun. But now that we're sitting here, we don't have to be all, you know, tied up.

[00:05:08] You know, suit and tie. I'm just kidding. That's not what the show's like at all. But as we're sitting here on our own platform. No, we had a blast, and we kicked it back and had a ton of fun on the show with Salk today. But now that we're sitting here, what would you grade in the Mariners offseason? All right. You seem to not have a conclusive answer right off the jump. So I'll just start for you. F. Like right now, the Mariners offseason is an F. Yeah.

[00:05:39] There technically is still time for it not to be an F. Well, that's not the question. The question right now is like you put out in the poll. What would you grade the Mariners offseason right now? And right now, yes, F. An F or an F plus? Because Donovan Solano does add a slight positive. But there's no such thing as an F plus. Well, I just invented it. Well, then there you go. There are people voting F minus minus. So I'm going to say an F.

[00:06:07] On the optimistic side, an F plus. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the list of national people talking about the Mariners grew this week. Now, Trevor May is a local guy. And he is a Mariners fan now that he's not playing anymore. He grew up a Mariners fan. But our guy, Trevor May, who's now a friend of ours, friend of the podcast, was talking about offseasons and which teams have done well, which teams haven't. And he did not hold back to say the Mariners had the worst offseason in baseball.

[00:06:36] So, again, it keeps growing. And I got to tell you, it's hard to say these people are wrong. It's why the Orioles and M's need to make a trade. I think each are having Orioles a little bit better of an offseason, but still not great. They lost Corbin Burns. They have this great core. They've won a ton of games. And they have spent a little bit more money. But they haven't blown the roof off. Well, I think this would be a good time for a Luis Castillo-Coby Mayo trade.

[00:07:05] Sure, sign me up for that. Again, I don't want to say bang the drum for Kobe Mayo because it's not like I want to trade Luis Castillo. Again, the optics behind a Castillo trade are fucking sad. But if you're going to have to do it, then, yes, would I be interested in six years of control for a third baseman that might hit 35 homers a year? Yeah, I am. Which, again, you just shouldn't have to trade Luis in the first place.

[00:07:30] I got to tell you, the amount of rent-free real estate Mariners ownership takes up in my head on a daily basis is legit going to be studied by science for generations. And the season hasn't even started yet. No. Like, it's concerning how much just absolute rent-free space they take up. Do I need to be worried about you at spring training? In what way?

[00:07:58] Well, are you going to be in a good mental state? Well, we're going to have to show up to find out. Yeah, I'll probably be – I'll be fine because like we talked about a couple episodes ago, once you get out into the warm sun and you see all the guys out there and you start talking to people that are there, it's – spring training is really fun. So will I be in a good mood at spring training? Yeah, probably.

[00:08:23] Could it be made better by sheer interest in improving the roster? And this isn't a front office thing. We know who this is about. Yes. I know you have a story to tell. I would just like to remind people, number one, we do have a live show coming up a month from now, Thursday, February 20th, Moss Bay Hall in Kirkland, 6 p.m. Be there. Be square. Come hang out. Come eat. Come drink.

[00:08:51] And come listen to us up on the stage. It'll be a lot of fun. So reminder, February 20th, about a month from now, Moss Bay Hall in Kirkland, we have our first live show. And I would also like to remind the people, we are – if you would like to support us going into this season, we are looking for sponsors going into this 2025 season. So if you own a business and you're looking for some promotion, you're looking for some marketing, well, I think we can help each other out. You can help us. We can help you. And it would be a blast.

[00:09:21] So if this would be something you're interested in, you can reach out to us, marinelayerpod at gmail.com. You can shoot us a DM also on any of our social media channels. There was something last week or earlier this week that we didn't get to that I think Lyle wants to talk about. I do. I just want to quickly say about the live show. Again, as soon as we have more details on like what the actual step-by-step plan of it will be, we'll tell you guys. But do us a favor and show up first because it's going to be fun.

[00:09:49] Anyway, we were sitting here on Wednesday rightly, you know, serenading Ichiro, talking about some of the best moments of his career. The much, much deserved Hall of Famer. It's still a joke. There was one person that didn't vote for him, but this is mostly about the positivity of Ichiro. And we were talking for a while and we somehow forgot to tell this story. Now, this goes way back to before the Marine Layer podcast was ever started, was ever an idea.

[00:10:20] And TJ and I were just college sophomores at Arizona State watching a 2018 Mariners team that, you know what? Had some real expectation. And if you remember, Ichiro talked about in his press conference the other day, one of the coolest moments of his career was getting to come back to Seattle in 2018 and getting to play in a Mariners uniform once again. He said it was so awesome to have that full circle moment. Well, I'll tell everybody listening who didn't think so.

[00:10:50] That'd be the man sitting right across the screen from me, right on your screen if you're watching on YouTube. Well, that'd be TJ. TJ and all of our friends could tell you the same story. I won't speak for him in the sense of what his reaction was when Ichiro was actually re-signed, but it got to the point where Ichiro was playing in so many games at the start of 2018 when it was supposed to be a competitive roster gunning for a playoff spot.

[00:11:18] He got so fed up and so tired of seeing 44-year-old Ichiro in the lineup that, man, I wish we'd had a social media presence back then. Because TJ made a very, very strong proclamation and his own declaration that he was going on a boycott from Mariners games. We were sitting in our Arizona State apartments, dorms, etc. And TJ's sitting there saying, yelling, I should say,

[00:11:48] I am done watching this stupid team until Ichiro is off this roster. I'm done. I'm sick of it. I'm not watching another second. And I mean, he would, it wasn't like a one-time thing that he's reminding people that this is now the route I'm deciding to go. Oh no, we heard it like every minute of every day about how he's boycotting Mariners games for the foreseeable future. And how many Mariners games did I watch during my boycott, Lyle?

[00:12:18] You didn't watch many, if any at all. No, I did not watch any. And Lyle, could you remind me what the end result of the boycott was? Oh yeah, that's a good point. So one day, I'm walking in the hallway. I think I'm going over to hang out with TJ. And I hear him screaming from all the way down the hall, which isn't totally uncommon. It's like, oh, TJ's yelling? Well, that's nothing too newsworthy.

[00:12:46] Only for me to open the door, get to his room, and see that as of 30 seconds prior, I hadn't checked my phone in that time, but TJ had. Yelling that he's retired! He's retired! He's retired! I could go back to watching games! I'm like... Now, he hadn't exactly retired at that point. That was when they moved him into that special advisory role, so he could still stick around the team. He could play in those two games the final year, the year after, in Japan.

[00:13:13] But this dude was jumping up and down like they had just broken the drought. Seeing Ichiro off the roster, I was like, wow, TJ, you're really paying your respects for a franchise icon. I tip my cap to you. This is going to be bad optics. I'm going to be honest, right? It is really hard to look at me after hearing that and say, wow, you're a fake Mariners fan.

[00:13:38] I cannot believe that you did that to a franchise icon. And you're like, you know, you might be right. But, as you mentioned, Lyle, that Mariners team was supposed to be competitive. They were supposed to be good. They had a bunch of stars on their team. And who was up there batting in the ninth inning in some really big games early in the season? Wow. Who was it? Oh, that'd be Ichiro.

[00:14:08] I can't tell the story well enough to do it justice in terms of how infuriated TJ was in the first six weeks of that season. Having to watch that go down. He would bat in the ninth inning. It would be 92 down the middle. And he couldn't hit it. Like, I'm sorry. Aren't they supposed to be good? Well, they were. Lyle, we get pumped full of nostalgia so much. Can we try and win?

[00:14:39] That's the point. Think of 20-year-old TJ in this moment where I had never seen – the both of us had never seen a playoff game before, let alone a serious roster where they're actually trying to win. And we get to the point where we think the Mariners have a competitive roster, but as franchise legend as he is, Ichiro at 44 years old is out there taking important at-bats in the ninth inning.

[00:15:07] For a team that said they were trying to win. And I could not take it seriously. Like, they're not going to take it seriously. Neither am I. And they eventually made the decision to move on from him. And they had a great first half before collapsing. Much like a certain 2024 Mariners team did, which we actually highlighted, by the way, on this podcast, Lyle. The exact same numbers, which happened. Anyways, funny how that works. Would you like to guess Ichiro's OPS that year?

[00:15:37] I was going to say, I just pulled this up to give myself a little bit of a refresher for how bad it got. You can tell the people. 460. Yeah. He had an OPS plus of 33. Big at-bats in the ninth. You can flame me in the comments, but I was right. He's going in the Hall of Fame. He should have been unanimous. But I was right. I mean, you probably were right.

[00:16:06] He only played 15 games that year, but he actually managed to rack up negative half a war in that time. So it wasn't great. Oh. I wish all our listeners could have seen this in person in real time. I really do. The timing of it ending could not have been more perfect. Well, it was right before we were getting ready to go home for the summer, I remember. I know.

[00:16:32] But just you being there to see the live end of it. Oh, that was pretty good. Yeah. And who would have known that six years later, it turns into a phenomenal podcast story? And that we sat there in his press conference. Yeah, that too. At least he didn't have to go up there and hit. TJ sitting there thinking about, wow, the Mariners were an 89-win team in 2018. You had negative half a war. So look, we can talk about the Mariners collapse.

[00:17:01] But you, Ichiro, cost them a playoff spot. No. No. Actually, he did not. No, he didn't. He didn't. No, the Mariners collapsing cost them a playoff spot. Do you think Jerry's hit up Ichiro this offseason and seen if he's available? Well, can he play third base? I'm sure he could. Yeah. Well, maybe they'll tune in. Who knows?

[00:17:29] I mean, they're running out of options at this point. They are running out of options. Let's talk about some serious topics, okay? Take your smile off your face. We're getting serious here. We talked a little bit about this on Brock and Salk today. I thought this would be a great platform to expand on it a little bit more. We spent a decent amount of time. Salk wrote a column that published on Wednesday evening about why the offseason is where it is, what they can still do without spending any more money.

[00:17:59] But I want to kind of focus on this first part where it's why are the Mariners doing what they're doing? And there's a number of ideas around it. The main one is, and I think the one you and I blatantly agree on the most, is that they don't have any money to spend. No, no, no, no. False. They have money to spend. They're choosing not to. The baseball operations department doesn't have any money to spend. The owners have money to spend. Well, that's correct.

[00:18:28] The people making baseball decisions don't have the money to spend because it's not their money. That's correct. And here we are, roughly 18 minutes into the show. You want to say it or should I? Mariners ownership does not think it's a smart strategy to add good baseball players to this team. Woo! Not a smart strategy, baby. All right. We got it in today. Circling around this entire idea, though, the one option is they choose not to spend money

[00:18:56] because of organizational philosophy as bad and terrible as we think that is based on where the roster is right now. That's one line of thinking. The other line of thinking, which I think kind of correlates with it and which brings us to the topic we're going to talk about here, is how much they believe in the final five weeks of the season. Lyle, how much should they believe in the final five weeks of the season in terms of projecting future offensive success?

[00:19:24] You shouldn't buy into five weeks of anything. The 2019 Mariners started off 13-2 and then had the number six pick in the draft. There are fluky samples over the course of a 162-game season, and buying into small sample sizes is a mistake. You highlighted this perfectly on Brock and Salk on Thursday. I'll let you highlight it here.

[00:19:52] You can take a look at the best Mariners offensive stretch both in 2023 and 2024, and it's pretty telling. Where do we even start with this? I was trying to tee you up for that. Why don't you start with that? Those stretches. Well, there's a lot of information here. So the stretch in 2024 I'm talking about is from the first game Dan managed in and Edgar coached in as the hitting coach to the end of the season.

[00:20:20] The stretch in 2023 I looked at was the last week of July through the end of August. If you remember in 2023, August, they set a franchise record for wins in a month. They had the best offense in baseball. They were incredible. I thought they were going to win the World Series after that month, legitimately. That month was an outlier good month for Mariners baseball in 2023. And you can say the same thing in 2024.

[00:20:46] Let me know if this sounds similar when I read off these months. 2023 offensive ranks by month. These are by WRC+. In April in 2023, the Mariners were 21st. In May, they were 13th. In June, they were 16th. In July, they were 7th. August, they were 1st. September, they were 19th. In 2024, in April, they were 14th. May, they were 16th. June, they were 14th. July, they were 14th.

[00:21:15] August, they were 21st. In September, they were 2nd. One of those sets of months, the Mariners decided to blow up their offense because they thought the offense was too inconsistent and they wanted to find a way to be more consistent. They weren't totally wrong. I mean, that offense was a little too strikeout prone, but that was a choice by them because the offense net for the season was productive.

[00:21:43] But the Mariners take a look at this same offensive set in 2024 with similar results month by month with one clear outlier month and decide that could be a norm going into next season. That just doesn't sound right, does it? No, not at all. This goes back to the idea of looking at a small sample and banking on it is a mistake. Look, you brought in a coaching staff that you believe in.

[00:22:13] Great. Awesome for you guys. But the expectation that some of the players that hit the way they hit in that stretch are going to repeat it? No. There's no way. And there is no two people that highlight that more than Luke Raley and Victor Robles. I'll give you two different numbers if you want to look at two different stretches. Our buddy Peter Apple of the Just Baseball Show tweeted this out back in September. The stretch from the middle of August to the middle of September.

[00:22:42] You know who the top two hitters in baseball were in that time? Luke Raley and Victor Robles. Those guys had WRC pluses over that stretch of 200. 200. That's Aaron Judge level. If you want to just look at September, Victor Robles in that stretch had a WRC plus of 192 and Raley had a WRC plus of 179.

[00:23:07] So if you're banking on those guys to do anything similar to that, which I'm sure the Mariners are not, but that still circles back to the problem here. You're looking at an offense that was second in the league in a few or top. You're looking at an offense that was top three in the league in different offensive categories over that final stretch with players way overperforming their norm to the point where it's not even close to sustainable.

[00:23:32] There's a real world if you look at those 200 WRC plus numbers from the middle of August to the middle of September. Where each of those guys dropped down 90 to 100 points in 2025 in terms of their season total. And guess what? If both Luke Raley and Victor Robles are 105 to 110 WRC plus hitters, those are perfectly fine years. That's above average.

[00:23:55] But then the offense you are banking on to carry your 2025 season would take a 90% drop off from those guys playing at their career norms or what Victor Robles now has turned himself into. And trying to rely on them being anything more than that ranges anywhere from irresponsible to flat out asinine. I was trying to look at this in more of an optimistic sense and see if there was any way that this can work. Oh my bad.

[00:24:27] This is me playing the other side of the argument here. They did have a different approach it seems like in September. They did. But there's just no guarantee that carries over. That's something that needs to be proven over an entire season. Do you remember how much we spent talking about the individual hitting coaches last year? Yeah. Mm-hmm. Yeah. We spent a lot of time. But now that Edgar's there, that's not going to be as much of an issue.

[00:24:57] I have or issue. I issue if it doesn't work success story. If it does work, it's not just going to be it doesn't feel like it's going to be some some magic fix fix that they're all of a sudden shifted ideology on hitting. What is magically going to fix this offense that that part? I don't feel I so there's in terms of like the individual individual contributors of these stretches.

[00:25:26] There's a positive side to this I can find and I think there's a negative side of this. The negative side you just highlighted where there are players here where it's just it's unsustainable to keep doing this. If you look at the 2023 one, you could tell why it was unsustainable. The third best hitter that month was. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Who is it? In that stretch from the end of July through the end of August, it was Dylan Moore. My guy.

[00:25:56] 171 WRC plus. Shout out to Dimo. Who else was on this list? So Ty France was on that list. He was not a contributor in 2024. Teoscar Hernandez was off the Mariners in 2024. As you could tell, like there was not the ability to repeat that with that group.

[00:26:14] And the Mariners, if you take a look at their September, we've already deemed that it is unlikely that Victor Robles and Luke Raley could repeat 75% of that month's production and realize, oh, the offense looks like this because those two players are your two best players. But we shouldn't be relying them on to be your two best players. Justin Turner's on this list and so is Randy. So Turner's the one you would subtract from the 2024 list.

[00:26:43] You see the supplemental players, you can't rely on those as much. You'll have hot months, but it's going to be rare where they're all going to be hot at the exact same time. And that's not something you can rely upon. So let's say all those players aren't hot at the same time. Well, then maybe the Mariners go right back down to the 15th rated offense and nothing changes. That's about where they are, right? Middle of the pack to bottom third, depending on the season. 2023 is a little bit higher. 2024 is a little bit lower. Yeah. Can I ask you a question?

[00:27:12] You want to hear my positive though? You want to hear the positive of both of these as we've tried to talk about? Usually correlates with a good Julio month. Yes. Lay it on me and then I have a question for you. That's it. That's the correlation. Yes. It's pretty simple. Well, Julio went off in September. Right. So it's almost like that's why we've said, and I'm going to just repeat it.

[00:27:41] Like if Edgar gets the best out of Julio, then it almost doesn't matter to me what else he does. Here are my two questions for you. You're referencing supplemental players on the roster. How many Mariners offensive players on the current roster are not supplemental players? Right now I can think of three. Julio, Cal and Randy. The fact you have to think hard about this is not good.

[00:28:11] But you're right. Offensive players? Yeah. Yeah. That's not good. Well, no, JP's not a supplemental player. He's not supplemental, but didn't have a great. It's supplemental production, but he's not a supplemental player. Last year was supplemental production. All right. Fair. It wasn't even supplemental. It was bad production. Right. My other question for you is when you mentioned all the talk we had about the individual hitting coaches last year. By that, do you mean people like Jared DeHart or do you mean these guys' private swing coaches?

[00:28:41] I mean the private swing coaches. Yeah. And I don't know how that's going to change things here in 2025. We don't know what these guys do or how they've altered their plans in the offseason. Again, we heard some rumblings from enough people that felt like Julio's private swing coach that he'd worked out with the last couple years was a bit of a disaster. And that played some factor into why it took him so long to get going. And then Edgar really helped him get right.

[00:29:10] What's Julio's offseason plan now? We don't know. That's for Julio to one figure out. And that's for all of us to eventually learn if he ever talks about it. So did he get away from that old hitting coach? I guess we'll find out. Spring training will be telling for that. This mostly boils down to how are the Mariners going to get their core hitting consistently?

[00:29:35] And is that a reliable – can you rely on that right now going into this season based off of September? I don't think you can say that based off of September alone that our core is going to be good next year. Yeah. No, you cannot. And I was trying to piece this together and make a good argument about this.

[00:30:00] So in summary of this, saying something will be because of one month is a bad argument in summary. 2023, that 34-game stretch was an outlier. I think the 34-game stretch in 2024 was an outlier as well. You can look at the blueprint for success for what this regime has done. In 2022, the Mariners-Lisle had four core players play and hit extremely well throughout the season.

[00:30:28] And that was a big part of helping them make the playoffs and feel a little bit more consistent offensively. They didn't get that in 23 as much as they wanted to. Again, mostly boiling back to Julio. They didn't get that in 2024. Again, mostly boiling back to Julio. Right? So if they can get that going into this season, great. But that's not going to be a thing based off of what they did last September. I don't think. Not exclusively. Who are the four players from 22?

[00:30:58] Is it Julio, Cal, Gino, and Ty France? Yeah. Yeah. And Ty France, it was really only for a half. It was. It ballooned. It kept his numbers up to look good at the end of the year. Right. Yeah. Oh, that injury in Oakland, man. When he got ran into. Changed everything it felt like. Yeah. I don't really understand how the Mariners saw what was a monster hot stretch in 2023. Said, this offense needs to be blown up.

[00:31:27] And then saw this hot stretch in 2024 and said, everything's fixed. As Richard Sherman liked to say when he was up there with the cutout of Doug Baldwin in that press conference 10 years ago. Oh, it feels a little hypocritical. Nice pull. Thanks. We'll just have to see. We'll just have to see. But that, I would say, it's not an answer. It's not. I don't think it's right. But it's probably an idea of why they haven't done much. It's flawed thinking.

[00:31:55] They haven't really earned the benefit of the doubt to evaluate hitters and what fits. Because they haven't gotten right enough. But that's their strategy. And that's why we are where we are. Uh-huh. I'll say this as we wrap this part of the show up, this segment. I would take the 2023 offense over the 2024 offense in a heartbeat at this point. And that's crazy to say. Because that offense drove us crazy at points of 23.

[00:32:25] But at least that offense had an identity and did some things well. They hit balls out of the ballpark. And while they struck out a lot, when they mashed, they mashed. But as Trevor May said in his little rant in his YouTube video, which you should go check out on Trevor's YouTube channel. If you somehow don't know about Trevor's YouTube channel yet. I don't know how you don't because he does awesome stuff. But he essentially said, here's the thing about the Mariners. They don't run. They don't hit for power. And they strike out near the most in baseball. And as he says, it's like, you got to pick one.

[00:32:54] It's like, pick an identity. Either overhaul your team where you are just contact-oriented, bunt, slap, hit, run the bases. Or be a power-hitting lineup. You can't be in the middle. What is the Mariners' identity? Having $15 million to spend all offseason? It's hard to argue that one. Yeah. I mean, wasting a generational rotation? There's another.

[00:33:24] Do you want to talk about some potential additions now? Yeah, let's do that. Speaking of guys they don't think can hit in their ballpark. Law, who are the two big ones that they don't think can hit in their ballpark? Tristan Casas, which Adam Jude said here on this show. They've also said similar things about Mr. Alex Bregman. I'm not even going to waste much energy on the Bregman one because it was never happening from the start and it's not happening now. He's a Boris guy.

[00:33:54] Probably has no interest to play in Seattle, between the ballpark, between the travel, between the team's lack of history. And again, it mostly ties back to Boris. Scott Boris clients don't sign in Seattle. It's just how it goes. The Tristan Casas one, where he has no say in where he plays. If he's traded, he's traded. I'm really having a hard time with this one. Am I going to sit here and say, yes, 100%.

[00:34:20] I'd be jumping up and down if the Mariners traded Luis Castillo for Tristan Casas. No, I wouldn't. Again, I don't like the idea of a Luis Castillo trade, period. But the idea of getting a club controllable, real power threat at one of those corner infield spots on your roster is intriguing enough. But according to Jude, what he said to us is the Mariners did their deep dive on this. They did their research and they deemed that he wasn't a fit for the ballpark.

[00:34:48] And all I got to say is, wow, if the people deeming he's not a fit for the ballpark are the same people that said Jorge Polanco, Jesse Winker, Colton Wong, AJ Pollock, Tommy Lastella, and others were. Man, I'm fired up. And I believe them. The background to Casas being available still is, I think it hinges on Alex Bregman going to the Red Sox, which is one of his options.

[00:35:18] It would be a great fit, though. Unfortunately, no. It seems like Alex Bregman is reengaged with the Astros and it's going to piss us off. Oh, if he re-signs with the Astros, I'm going full Joker. I have a question to the Mariners. If Tristan Casas is not a fit for T-Mobile Park, why is Randy? I'm curious. Wild, do you have an answer?

[00:35:46] Not really, because we were comparing the two side by side and we only have third-party information. We don't have all the data that the Mariners have internally. But from what we can see, there's a lot of similarities there. Both hit the ball pretty hard. Both draw walks at an above-average rate. Both strike out in probably the top 20% in baseball, given in the year. Both have a ton of power.

[00:36:14] Both play corner positions with zero defensive value. Casas hits the ball up the middle a little bit more, which the Mariners say they're trying to prioritize. Hits line drives at a higher rate. Randy's more of a dead pull hitter. Hits more balls on the ground. Hits line drives the ball up the ground.

[00:36:43] Hits line drives the ball up the middle a little bit more, which is why it's hard to trust the people saying he's not a fit for the ballpark when they have struggled time and time and time and time and time and time and time again to find players that are. They have not found those guys for the most part. They just have not clicked on any of these big league offensive trades. Again, rattle through the list all you want. There's been so many flops. And when you see somebody like Casas, that you know his real upside and you know when he's at his best is a...

[00:37:10] I won't quite put the game changer label on him yet, but has the upside of being a game changer type bat. And you deem he's not a fit for the park? I don't have a good answer for this. And I don't have any... I don't know what else I'm supposed to say about this. I think... I can't say it's silly because ultimately it's their decision and we don't have the same information they do.

[00:37:42] But... Kind of think of it in the same way as like Teoscar Hernandez and Luke Raley. Like Raley's more athletic. But are they that different? Right. Not really. The whole idea of acquiring Teo was they thought his hard hit rates would basically rip right through all of the suppression that the Seattle ballpark does to hitters. That didn't happen.

[00:38:07] Teo hit way better on the road, struggled at T-Mobile, and went to the Dodgers and got back to being Teoscar Hernandez. Raley didn't have as much trouble at T-Mobile Park, but production-wise, Raley was a little bit more productive. But three swingers, don't walk, hit the ball as hard as anybody. Mm-hmm. I got it. And now Raley's going to... Raley's embodied. He's staying on the roster.

[00:38:36] He's going to be thrust into a starting position this year, as he should because he's one of the nine best players they have and can play all over the place. But if Teoscar was available and if Teoscar wanted to come back, it doesn't feel like the Mariners would reach out to Teo and say they wanted him back. It's strange. It's strange. Here's a fascinating one. It might be overthinking. It might be. But I can't say if I'm right or not. Here's a fascinating one for you. Just to dive into this a little bit more.

[00:39:05] I'm going to read you a slash line. 201 average, 314 on base percentage, 351 slug. That's a 665 OPS. Do you know what that slash line is? Is that Lou Craley at home? That is Cal Raleigh at home at T-Mobile Park. Cal Raleigh hit 201 at T-Mobile Park in 2024 with a 665 OPS. On the road, he had an 823 OPS. So let me ask this question.

[00:39:34] Why is Cal Raleigh a fit for T-Mobile Park and not Tristan Casas? And this is not any Cal Raleigh bashing. We love Cal Raleigh. We know he's one of the cornerstones of this team. Deservingly so. But here's a guy who did not hit last year in T-Mobile Park. Why is he not? Why is Cal Raleigh a fit and Casas isn't? Because Cal Raleigh's the second best defensive catcher in baseball. This isn't about that. This is about his offense.

[00:40:03] The bat might not be a fit. But his defense is. Correct. That's more the explanation here. And that's why I come back to the Randy Casas one. Because there's no defensive value with either one. But you're not looking at Casas to play defense if you acquire him. You're not looking at Randy either. No. And yet they traded for him. They did. There were no red flags going off at the deadline. Saying, oh, we can't trade for him. He's not going to fit in the park.

[00:40:32] Yes, there is a different element to Cal Raleigh because he is one of the game's best defensive catchers. The guy won the platinum glove for God's sake. Of course he's a great defender. But we're talking about bats here. Offensive production in Seattle. Well, are you saying Tristan Casas can't hit better than 201 with a 665 OPS and about a 100 WRC plus at T-Mobile Park?

[00:40:57] There's also the element of the Mariners not deeming the production at T-Mobile Park not worth it for the price they're giving up. Think of the difference in price for what they gave up to acquire Randy, which just required prospects, versus you'd have to give up Luis Castillo for Tristan Casas. Or if you're signing Alex Bregman, you're inking him to a nine-figure deal.

[00:41:21] That's where I think the Mariners are like, his production at T-Mobile Park is worth this, not this. And that is, it's the latter number that's too high that they don't deem a fit for their park. I would say anyone's a fit for the park aisle at the right price. But I do think it's odd that, in a contention window, you would deem good players bad fits for your roster. That just seems silly on the simplest of terms.

[00:41:51] And good players are bad fits for our park when we're trying to win a World Series. And if that's their logic, fine. But I counter with this. What do you plan to do instead? Doing nothing's not an option. No. Sorry, not an option for us. It might be for them, given that they have done one 26-man roster move. For three and a half million dollars.

[00:42:21] Incredible. You know Tristan Casas is going to turn around and hit 42 homers this year. And then his price is going to double. Oh, well, he hits 42 homers this year. Red Sox ain't trading him. Yes. What's Donovan Slotto going to do at first base if Tristan Casas hits 42 home runs? You don't want to know. Believe me, you don't want to hear the answer.

[00:42:51] 6.55 OPS. 4 homers. Negative defense. 1 home run. I gave him 4. I gave him 4, but yeah. Well. Not great. Sounds like a scary proposition. Mm-hmm. Again, I don't know how they're going to add offense. I really don't. Now, per Daniel Kramer, the Mariners say they feel like they have another notable move up their sleeve.

[00:43:19] But what does that plan currently rest on? It rests on Alex Bregman signing somewhere else so they can make a trade. No, no, no. A team in a contention window can't actually go sign the best third baseman on the market with a gaping black hole at third base. No, they actually have to wait for the best third baseman to sign somewhere else so they can go try to trade for some young controllable bat for pennies on the dollar. Say that back again without the names. Simple sentence. Okay.

[00:43:49] Mariners feel like they have another notable move up their sleeve. Unwilling to acquire one notable player. We're going to make a notable move at third base. There's one notable third baseman left, but it's not him. TJ? Sorry, actually, it's because of him.

[00:44:17] TJ, I'm going to ask you again. Now with 48 additional hours to think on this, are you sure Jerry DiPoto and John Stanton weren't at Ichiro's presser to avoid media questions? Because they just went out into the public and said, we have a notable move left, but it's not the guy that actually makes this team significantly better. I will say since that moment.

[00:44:43] We have absorbed more information that would lead me to lean your direction, Lyle. Wow. You were trying to gaslight me so hard two days ago telling me I was wrong. Makes sense. Some people explain it to me. I thought it might have been silly, but I think I was wrong, Lyle. Wow. You think those two were not at Ichiro's presser because they were trying to avoid the media? Well, it would be on brand. Beyond brand.

[00:45:13] I got to tell you, again, the optics of this offseason are just off the charts. It's made for some unreal content. The fact that the same tone was used this morning on the show literally says how stupid it is. That's the flagship station, and it was still said that way this morning.

[00:45:37] Obviously, when we're on there, we know what comes with getting the really, really awesome opportunities to do that and to fill in. But we know there is some common ground about how full-blown total Marine Layer podcast Lyle and TJ will go. So we still have fun, and we still show our personalities, but I think we usually err a little bit more on the side of caution than we certainly would on here.

[00:46:07] But yeah, that was the tone of the show today. It's like, well, they need a third baseman, and they feel like they have a chance to go acquire a notable one. Well, not Alex Bregman, because that would be crazy. As Salt said. Can we talk about a third baseman they might go acquire? Hear me out. Can I pitch him to you? Okay.

[00:46:33] This player was voted by another player to be the National League MVP in 2024. You know what I respond to that with? Oh my God. Or better said, oh my God. Yeah. It's Jose Iglesias of the New York Mets, now a free agent. You did not mishear me.

[00:46:56] There was a player who said that Jose Iglesias should be the National League MVP last year. Thank you, Nick Castellanos. Yeah. He was dead serious. Jose Iglesias is coming off the best offensive season of his career. In about half a season, he had a 137 WRC+. He was an average defender. Two and a half wins above replacement.

[00:47:24] Career highs in triple slash and WRC+. While, should the Mariners sign Jose Iglesias? They could use some vibes, I'll tell you that. He'd bring vibes. Vibes are great. I'll tell you what. People would be so sick of hearing OMG by the end of the year. And not because it's a bad song. I actually think it's a great song.

[00:47:50] But you know it would get overplayed like crazy in the ballpark if he was on the team. So. I have a pitch for Jose Iglesias of why they should acquire him. And it's not because of his offense. You heard his offensive stats. They sound good. He's a 90 WRC plus hitter for his career. I would expect he's an older... It's not even Josh Rojas. He would probably be a max one-win player at third base if they signed him.

[00:48:20] If that. Maybe it's a half. He should be 35 next year. His bat will probably regress. He might not even be average offensively next year. Because he went at least 10 years being below average at the plate. Before last season. It's not that. I'm going to explain to you why Nick Castellanos decided to vote Jose Iglesias to MVP. For National League MVP. Here's the quote from...

[00:48:50] Here's the quote from him. He was on with Chris Rose on the Rose rotation on John Boy. And here's what Castellanos said. He said why he should be MVP is because of the energy he brought to the clubhouse. He quote... Knocked the ice off of Francisco Lindor. Helped Mark Vientos be comfortable being an everyday third baseman. And this is the quote that really gets me.

[00:49:16] Now a bunch of guys that looked like they had no direction running in all different directions at the beginning of the year. They made the playoffs and the entire Mets organization was holding up OMG signs. The sentence that got me. A bunch of guys that looked like they had no direction running in all different directions in the beginning of the year. Now where have I heard something similar before? Why don't you enlighten the people? The Mariners last two years.

[00:49:48] The big knock on the Mariners that they have not... They don't have enough veteran leadership. And the clubhouse has been... Let me reword that. The clubhouse has... The clubhouse has been fine. But the... Just the overall consistency and... Results of the team have been inconsistent. And it has been directly tied back to a lack of veteran leadership. See Carlos Santana and their flurry in 2022 and how impactful he was.

[00:50:17] And then what happened when Justin Turner got here at the trade deadline this past season. Well Jose Iglesias sounds like he did the same thing to the Mets last year. And he was a big reason that they made the NLCS. It's because he has that type of impact on a clubhouse. Donovan Solano could be a good clubhouse guy. But man... Jose Iglesias sounds like THE clubhouse guy. Let me ask this question. Because all those quotes are fascinating.

[00:50:46] Why have the Mets not just re-signed him yet? He's going to cost what? $4 million? He'd be a bench player? Steve Cohen writes a check like that in his sleep. Why is he not back with the Mets? That's a great question. I couldn't... I couldn't answer that for you. I'd love to know why. I'm sure everybody would love to have him back. Those fans. Certainly the guys in that clubhouse. The coaching staff. Even if he's not going to be what he was last year. Again, just as a bench player and having that veteran there. I'm pretty surprised he's not back with the Mets yet.

[00:51:16] That being said, he's not. He is a free agent. So what would the Mariners have to give up to acquire him? I'll say it again. $4 to $5 million? It's not the most intriguing option in the world. There's not many intriguing options left. And you need somebody to play third base. And if you want to bank on Jose Iglesias being a... At least one and a half war player. Third base. Might be your best option at this point.

[00:51:45] I know that's not inspiring. But you've got to do something. I don't think you could. Maybe. Sorry. Maybe he could be that. Again, I don't know if... I mean, sorry. I shouldn't even say I don't know. I think it's unlikely he repeats what he did offensively last year. But could he be a 105 WRC plus bat? Certainly possible. Yeah. I mean, there's at least some intrigue there. It would be better than what the Mariners currently have. But there is risk because, again, first career. He is a below average hitter.

[00:52:15] And he's not a fantastic fielder. Not at this point of his career. You'd be rolling the dice on this one. But the impact he could have in the clubhouse would be significant. This would be the Gino Suarez vibes movement with Jose Iglesias. Right. Yes, it would. Now, Jose Iglesias was a part-time player last year. He wasn't playing every day. He played 85 games last year. Jose Iglesias actually started in the minors last year.

[00:52:43] Because he was on a minor league deal to start. The Mariners, similar to how it feels like they're going to use Donovan Solano at this point, feel like they would run Jose Iglesias into the ground, which is not how he's meant to be used. So that's the flip side to this coin. The optimistic side is Jose Iglesias could come over to Seattle, play some decent defense, and be a 105 WRC plus bat. So he provides some value.

[00:53:09] The flip side is, if the Mariners try to run into the ground an old, aging, 35-year-old first baseman and ask him to play 140 games, that's how things can get out of hand. That's how he starts to slump. That's how he could get injured, etc. Yeah, it's not a perfect plan. Sadly, the Mariners do not seem to have a solution at third base. So this is a solution.

[00:53:35] And I'm not saying the Mariners have been linked to Jose Iglesias, but he is still available, technically. Technically still an option. They weren't linked to Donovan Solano either, so you never know. Well, yeah. Because they're hidden away in a bunker this offseason. That is the term I would use. No pressers, no signings, no life. Well, they came out for Dallas, but... Yes. Yeah. What have they been doing?

[00:54:04] Again, I think that's the best way to put it. They have been hiding away in the bunkers. Yeah. They have not been in the limelight at all. Will the Mariners make a move by the next time we record a podcast? Ooh. Man. By the next time we record, man, are we approaching pretty close to February. The turn of another calendar month. Man, if the Mariners have made one move by the month of February, that is going to be something. I'm going to say no. No.

[00:54:34] We've had such a good hit rate with that. Why fix what isn't broke? I'm going with you. I'm going to say no as well, but they need to do something. We need another emergency podcast, please. We need more content. Please and thank you. As Hamilton Porter says in the Sandlot, we are waiting. Or you can use the Caddyshack quote too. Well, we're waiting. We're waiting.

[00:55:05] Maybe one day, Teej. Maybe one day. I hope. All right. I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Liar podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. If you're on the audio side, make sure to download. Rate and review five stars. Salk read a bunch of our Apple podcast reviews. They've been really nice, really friendly. We'd love to see more of them. So please, just take a minute to do that. If you're on YouTube watching, make sure to like, comment, and please hit that subscribe button.

[00:55:34] That's the best way you can support us and the channel. Go follow us everywhere on social media where we're posting content every single day. Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube Shorts, Blue Sky, at MarineLayerPod. One final reminder, first live show. We'll talk to you soon.