Episode 215: Justin Turner Torches The Mariners + Outfield/Middle Infield Preview

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 215 of the Marine Layer Podcast. It's our middle infielder and outfield preview for the 2025 season. We'll also react to Justin Turner's comments this week that he was criticizing the Mariners offseason, among some other headlines. A reminder to all you guys before we start this pod, if you're listening, make sure to download, rate and review, leave it five stars. If you're on YouTube, make sure to like, comment, please hit that subscribe button. Go check out our Patreon. It's brand new, you guys.

[00:00:28] We've got a brand new Patreon page that we're going to be adding a bunch to. So go get involved over there with us. It's going to be a blast and follow us everywhere on social media at Marine Layer Pod. Let's get it rolling.

[00:00:52] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network recording on Thursday evening, March 6th. We've got a lot to get into today, so we'll dive right in. And Lyle, let's summarize it real quick. Justin Turner was not a huge fan of what the Mariners did this offseason. You know, we spend a week at spring training. Vibes are good. We're getting excited.

[00:01:18] And then this drops. Not to say the vibes totally changed and a bunch of our takeaways are not. Not to say a bunch of our takeaways are now down the drain. They're not. But, oh boy. Oh boy. Oh boy. I mean, we just can't even make it a month without things like this dropping. Can't escape. And Jerry talked again. You said it today in the reaction here on Thursday.

[00:01:47] The Mariners owe DK Metcalf the biggest thank you of all time. Because him requesting a trade this week has now buried not one, not two, but three separate stories that pin your organization in a bad light. Absolutely hilarious. I mean, it's very classic. So shout out to you, DK. Let's get into these comments from Justin Turner in case you missed them. Bob Nightingale, who we saw at the complex, I think our second to last or last. I think it was second to last day.

[00:02:17] I believe working on this story right here where he was going around and he was. I don't know where Turner was in the in the order of who he was going to talk to, but he was. He made a column on the Mariners pitching staff in the season and sort of the missed opportunity to have the soft season, which we have covered extensively here on this podcast. And he decided to go talk to former Mariner and current Chicago Cub Justin Turner. And Turner said, quote,

[00:02:54] He added in later, Honestly, as much as I wanted to be back there, if I was the only piece they brought back in, I would be saying the same thing. What the hell are they doing? Are you trying? There's not a better time to go for it. So I don't know what they're doing. I'm very confused. This is a head scratcher for me. Whoa. He's really got some strong feelings, doesn't he?

[00:03:20] Look, he could have been peppered with these questions at any point when he comes back to Seattle or Seattle goes to Chicago. Yeah, on the schedule this year, be Seattle going to Wrigley Field. So if anybody in the Mariners media asked him about things like this, he might have answered it at some point, but he could have answered it pretty even keeled. He clearly, clearly had some things he wanted to get off his chest. And I wonder how much that's to do with the fact that he felt like the Mariners didn't make him a competitive offer.

[00:03:50] They did, though. Well, maybe he wanted more from Seattle. He probably did want more from Seattle because it's a little bit farther away. But again, he's a SoCal guy, and he signed a deal in Chicago. So Divish did a follow-up report to this because he sees the Justin Turner comments, and he goes, Oh, I'm sure there are some players who feel the same way. So Divish did some reporting in the Mariners clubhouse.

[00:04:15] He got a couple of comments off the record of Mariners players agreeing with what Justin Turner had to say. And while we were down there talking with some players down there, I would say that is definitely the vibe we picked up, including notable players. Definitely that sentiment that Justin Turner feels. The players understand, right? These guys see everything that goes on at this point.

[00:04:39] So Divish goes out and he reports about this Turner stuff, and he said the Mariners made competitive offers to Turner that were more than the $6.5 million he got from the Cubs. But Justin Turner ends up Chicago. I'm going to give my best guess why Justin Turner's not a Seattle Mariner right now. You know why I think this? Because let's say the Mariners offered Justin Turner $8 million. But Turner, first of all, I think said he wanted to wait out the offseason. He wanted to see all of his options out there.

[00:05:09] And let me also preface this so no one takes this as fact. I'm speculating with this. So let's say the Mariners offer Justin Turner $8 million. They pay him like the Seattle tax version of his Chicago Cubs contract. So Turner turns around after that and says, Okay, what else are you guys going to do? Crickets. Crickets. Crickets. And he's like, Oh, okay. Yeah, so I'm not really interested. So I take this based off of those comments right there, especially the second piece.

[00:05:39] As much as I wanted to be back there. See, it sounds like he'd already thought this through. If I was going to be back there, I'd be saying, What the hell are you guys doing? Does that sound like someone who would have been excited to go back if he was the only piece coming back? No. And he's essentially saying, Look, I understand I'm 40 years old at this point and I can still play a role. And I was good on this team last year. And he was. He was well above league average as a bat when he was in Seattle last year.

[00:06:09] But I think Justin Turner's also saying, I can't be the only piece you add. If I'm the only addition or re-signing that you make over the course of the offseason, even if it's me and Jorge Polanco both, he's saying that's not enough. And frankly, I don't think there's many people out there that disagree with him. Whether it's in the clubhouse, whether it's in the fan base, whether it's in the media, whether it's with agents, whoever.

[00:06:36] I think this is the sentiment at this point, right? It's not really up for debate. Yeah. He was. And Turner got even more specific, too. I found it fascinating where he was. He, Justin Turner, is a first baseman, right? He goes out on the record with Bob Nightingale and says, Man, I thought Pete Alonzo to the Mariners was a slam dunk. Someone at his own position.

[00:07:04] Well, those two would have platooned between first and DH. They would have made that work. Yeah, kind of. They would have made it work. Still, like, you get the precipice of this, right? Like, he's taking—Pete Alonzo would have took playing time away from Justin Turner. Yes. But this is Justin Turner also saying he wants to win. And he clearly feels that between that and the best offer he ended up receiving for what he felt like, yeah, was his best deal.

[00:07:32] He feels like it's easier to win right now in Chicago and has a better chance to do so with the Cubs than with the Mariners. And it sounded like there were multiple conversations between the Mariners and Turner throughout the offseason because it's also noted in the article that multiple times over the course of the offseason, Turner was trying to hammer home the point of how good and how rare this pitching staff was. As Bob put it in the title, unicorn pitching staff.

[00:07:55] And while Turner's trying to make his points, it didn't land enough for the Mariners to make more moves this offseason. And, man, I don't know if—do you think Bob went into this story with this intention to get a quote like this? Do you think he was trying? I don't think so. I'm sure he had the curiosity as a journalist in terms of what he'd discover.

[00:08:18] But I don't think he was fully expecting an all-out just—what's even the right word for it? I mean, you said Justin Turner set a blowtorch on fire when he started these quotes. That's essentially what it was. Do I think Bob Nightingale was expecting some type of blowtorch to be lit doing the story? No, but he got it.

[00:08:41] I think—yeah, I feel like you go into this expecting more of, like, having talked to enough baseball players, you feel like Turner would say something along the lines like, yeah, I'm disappointed I wanted to be back. Nonetheless, they probably could do more than they're doing right now. Like, would that be a blow—I don't think that would be a blowtorch. No. Some people might react to it a little bit, but that would be much— We would react to that. Well, when do we ever react to things?

[00:09:09] We're calm, cool, and collected all the time. All we ever do is take deep breaths and read. No, okay, anyway, and kidding aside, that essentially would have been a non-story if that's what Turner had said. But I'm going to say it again. He very, very clearly had things he wanted to get off his chest. And it very much seems that if Justin Turner's comfortable enough going on the record, even though he's outside the organization, he still feels very comfortable going on the record and saying those exact things.

[00:09:39] It feels like a good chunk of players feel this way about how the Mariners are. And we talked about the consequences of what this offseason would bring in terms of their perception across the league. You already have so many things working against you when it comes to geography, when it comes to ballpark, when it comes to travel, all these other things.

[00:09:58] And then when you add on one of the nicest guys in baseball, one of the most well-respected players across the entire league comes out and essentially tells the public, the players, hey, they don't really care that much. That's a terrible impression. When you've lost Justin Turner, you've lost the plot. Yeah. I mean, they probably lost the plot already. We've talked about that plenty.

[00:10:27] But especially when you lose somebody like Justin Turner. And look at the difference in framing quotation. Look at the difference of what is said with Mariners players on the record versus off the record in these articles. Do you notice that? Yeah. Yeah. You got five players in that article from Divish not wanting their names out there, but clearly comfortable enough to say off the record. Yeah.

[00:10:56] Like we shrug at this. What do you expect? We know this is how it is at this point. We know they won't spend. It's just the reputation. The quote of this, the standout quote from the Divish article quote. I would think any intellectual baseball fan out there that's been following this team would see what has been happening. It's pretty obvious. Again, nobody's saying that on the record because if a player goes public with those quotes, it just brings so much bad light to a clubhouse.

[00:11:26] It takes the attention away from trying to win games and onto something else. That's why no player will ever go on the record with this stuff, with the exception of Cal Raleigh at the end of 2023. And then the team, or if not the team, somebody, somebody made him come out and publicly apologize immediately after that. So you're not going to get much on the record voicing of this stuff. But off the record, yeah, you said it. Guys didn't hold back.

[00:11:55] And we saw the on the record stuff I'm referring to. There's a few players quoted in Bob Nightingale's article. And there were players quoted on the record by Ryan Divish about the offseason earlier in spring training. Who, you know, they essentially say, what are we going to do about it? All we can do, and this is what I've been saying as well. I said it in our social posts this week. I've said it earlier this offseason. Like, you guys have reported to camp now. The offseason does not matter. You just need to be good as you possibly can be.

[00:12:25] Because focusing on other things like this is going to do you absolutely no good. Right? But off the record, they're clearly still thinking about it. I was going to say, off the record, they have not let it go in any way, shape, or form. You had a handful of different guys who clearly had no issues voicing their opinion about this. It clearly has not slipped their minds. And I'll even take what you talked about in terms of us being down at spring training. I'll take it a little step further.

[00:12:52] I know you said the vibe we got was similar to what Divish reported. Look, like, we had some conversations with people. Like, we're not going to air anybody out. But we had some conversations with guys that, yeah, it basically mirrored what Divish was reporting. I'm not saying we, like, were first to the story and, oh, we beat Divish. No, Divish did something totally separate. I'm just saying in totally separate conversations that we had with people, we heard very similar things.

[00:13:21] It has not slipped everybody's mind. Not just big leaguers? No. Minor leaguers and big leaguers. So. Anything on this Jerry story? There's a big laugh there, Lyle. I'm sweating a little bit. Oh, you don't want me to blow up? Are you going to make me regret asking you that question? No. You're wondering if I'm about to blow up and go on a rant.

[00:13:51] I'm not. I'm telling you guys, I've let it air all out. I've put it past me, the off-season, all that stuff for now. I've, you know, I've done some soul searching. Really? Well, cleared a lot of the negative energy. Usually people just go to therapy. I've cleared a lot of the negative energy. For now. I can actually guarantee sitting on this podcast. This is a Marine Layer pod guarantee. While I'm sitting here saying I've cleared a lot of the bad energy, it's not permanently cleared.

[00:14:21] There will inevitably be some point in time where I get mad on here about something again. But. The Jerry quote. Or the Jerry story. I don't know, man. Is it really any different than what we talked about a few weeks ago when he did his presser? I just don't know what he benefits out of talking about so many of these things publicly at this point. It just doesn't go well. I actually, I didn't think it was that bad. I'm going to be honest. I feel like how you view this article depends on how you looked at Jerry before it.

[00:14:51] Like everything I've said about Jerry continues to be true. That I feel like he comes across as talking down to fans. Which, I don't know if that's his intention. But it's certainly how it comes out of his mouth whenever he speaks publicly. Because he's trying to be so transparent. It ends up kind of coming around and hitting him in the face. But if there's one thing I would say I've learned about Jerry DiPoto, you know, integrating into this Mariners community more.

[00:15:19] Is that when he's right, when he thinks he's right. Like, he thinks he's right. And he's not going to change. And I think that was pretty clearly highlighted in that article. Where right at the beginning. They're talking about the 54% comments. Right at the beginning. And he said, look, I don't think everyone understood what I was talking about there. They were lacking some context. They didn't watch the video. Would have helped if it was streamed, by the way, guys.

[00:15:48] But it was not. And most people probably only saw the quote online about it. And, again, there are some right things and wrong things of that. Yes, he should not have said that. And I also said in our social post this morning, definitely not even. That was the third worst thing he said in that press conference. So, but anyways, like, he believes he's right in that. His mind has not changed, I think, off of that philosophy. And I think it echoes.

[00:16:17] Now you forced yourself to rank it for the people. What's number two and what's number one in terms of the worst things he said in that press conference? Number one is the favor. Doing a favor. Fans a favor to be patient. Never tell fans you're doing them a favor. And never. Ever, ever. Especially when you make as much money as a president of baseball operations may. Just don't. And then the second one was calling the season a success after missing the playoffs. Never want to hear that again. Okay.

[00:16:46] Here's what I would say. Because I was specifically thinking about this 54% double down that he just did in this article. I just don't know what purpose it serves. I agree with everything you just said. When Jerry believes he's right, he doesn't shy away from it. I also think, as we've talked about plenty, when you really break down what he said about the 54% comment, it's not wrong.

[00:17:11] Again, the teams over a 10-year stretch that win that many games or that percentage of games are the most successful teams in the league. The issue is you just cannot ask casual fans to grasp that mindset after missing the playoffs and then say you're doing them a favor. So that quote went so poorly the first time, right? We don't need to tell anybody that. Everybody knows it went poorly the first time. Why in the world would you double down on this?

[00:17:38] I get he was probably asked the question and maybe he felt like he had to answer it in some way. But I also remember a couple days after he gave that quote back in 2023, he went on the radio and walked back what he said. He said, all right, I made a mistake. I'm embarrassed about what I said. The floor should be 54%, etc. Why would you now then go back and double down on this publicly, by the way? It's fine if you believe all the 54% stuff internally.

[00:18:04] It's going out in public and saying it where you run into problems. So why now, basically two years later or a year and a half later, are you going back and doing this again? This is where you're losing me. Because what benefit does this do for anybody? It's a good question. I don't know if I have a good answer for you on that. Besides, again, just back to my first point is that I don't think the mindset ever changed. And if you go down later in the article,

[00:18:35] he made a big emphasis on focusing on process, right? I should go find the quote. It was, yeah, you fill. I'm going to go find this quote. I am going to fill for a second because the other part of this I wanted to talk about, and I hope to get your reaction on it a little bit, is Jerry had a quote in there. By the way, this article, if we haven't properly given it credit yet, this was in The Athletic. It was written by Sam Blum.

[00:19:03] He was also down at spring training while we were there working on what was evidently this story. So it's in The Athletic if you want to go read it. The part that really got me is the line where Jerry said, at this point, like his quote was, at this point I could just say hello and it would start something. Well, Jerry, you're acknowledging that, but then you're still going out and giving these quotes. You're acknowledging when I say things publicly, it goes badly.

[00:19:32] But you also agree to do an interview with The Athletic that does very hard-hitting stories, by the way, like very real pieces, and continue to speak publicly on this stuff. Again, this is where you're losing me. Are you really benefiting from doing this at this point? I just don't see where the benefit is. I just don't. Not. There's not. Like, again, I could say hello and it would start drama. Well, you clearly recognize that.

[00:20:02] So why are you still letting this all out there? This is what I can't figure out. Let me see if I can. Now, the comment about him not wanting to constantly apologize for not winning the World Series in 1979, 89, or 99, it was, again, a little bit of a silly comment. I don't think he has to apologize for that.

[00:20:27] That it's what we constantly bring up of one playoff appearance in nine seasons, just one series win. I'm trying to find, where is this thing? One playoff appearance in 23 seasons, only team to never make the World Series. Well, one in nine for him. Even if it throw out the rest of the franchise history, his tenure enough hasn't had enough winning. Right. By the way, as we pointed out when he made the 54% comment, we can just bring it up again, Lyle. Have they won 54% of their games under Jerry DiPoto? No.

[00:20:57] Right. And that's the part that gets people, because Jerry said during that quote, sometimes you win 50%, sometimes you win 60%. As you also pointed out, they have not won 60% of their games in the DiPoto era. They just haven't done it. Found my paragraph. All right. Now, this is an all DiPoto quote. Okay. Before you read it, read it. I have one more note, and then it's time to move on to the previews. So go ahead. Yeah, we got a lot of previews to do. So take a chomp at this.

[00:21:24] When it comes to winning a championship, this is Sam's writing. DiPoto tries to look at it pragmatically. Of course, he wants to win a World Series ring, but he doesn't want to be singularly obsessed with the goal. Rather, he focuses on the process that will put them in a position to win it all, because he says you can't control the final outcome. That one didn't land well online today either, I don't think. Yeah, because you can control the final outcome.

[00:21:53] You can't play the games for the players, but you can put the necessary pieces on the field. There's not much more power. There's not much more positions where you can have the power to change an outcome than the GM, aside from the players physically playing. You know what I think would solve all this? If most of the messaging going forward is that we're going to put the best possible team on the field every single year with the goal to win the World Series.

[00:22:18] Yeah, I don't know why you'd say anything other than I am driven to go and win a World Series. I get what he's trying to say, that you have to have a sound process and you can't just throw things against the wall. But again, it goes back to the things you say publicly. If that is your idea internally, I get it. Jerry's process-oriented, he's detail-oriented. He has a very, very thought-out blueprint.

[00:22:42] But there is a difference when you speak publicly to a fan base that has waited for, not frankly, just waited way, way, way too long to see any level of success and just continue not to do so. Like, you just have to understand where the fan base is at and how they're going to take things. It's funny, that quote isn't that different from back in the 2000s when I believe it was either Howard Lincoln or Chuck Armstrong. It was Mr. Howard Lincoln.

[00:23:11] That said it's not actually our goal to win the World Series. I want to shout out an account on our Instagram. I can't remember the name. If you listen to this podcast commenter, you'll know exactly who you are. The only thing this person comments is that Howard Lincoln quote on every single post we do. It's not our goal to win the World Series. I think it starts with, Howard Lincoln said this. Unreal. No context. It can have nothing to do.

[00:23:40] We could cut the Julio Rodriguez preview for tomorrow, and that would be one of the comments on there. Mm-hmm. Yeah. The last thing I've got on this before we move on, unless you had something else. No, I don't. The fact that article ends with, I know at this point when I say things, I'm going to get roasted.

[00:24:01] That's the last line in that quote, in that article from Jerry, which, again, you realize it, but you keep talking publicly. Like, ugh. You know who would solve all this? Winning the division. Well, they should go do that. If they won the division the last two years, no one gives two rips, what Jerry says.

[00:24:23] No, if they won the division the last two years, people wouldn't care if they're running out an $85 million payroll, because clearly they have a process that's worked. The only reason this is a story is because the Mariners come up short, and there is only one way to solve that. Mm-hmm. You gotta win. That's it. Yep, you gotta win. Winning solves everything. Mm-hmm. Oh. Again, shout out DK Metcalf, because this could have been a lot bigger. Okay.

[00:24:54] Ready to go to our previews. I am. After we take a pause and talk to you about our friends over at Pagatch's Pub 85. That's over in Kirkland. Awesome spot to hang out with all your friends. If you want to go watch some spring training games. Again, Root's going to be putting a lot of these games on TV now, because we've gotten to that point in the spring training season. You can watch that. You can watch March Madness when the regular season starts for baseball. You can obviously watch all those games. Plan a time with your friends. Head over there. Have some great food. Go play some games.

[00:25:23] And awesome, awesome happy hour deals. You guys, three and four dollar drinks for happy hour. And they're long happy hours, too. Two to six p.m. Monday through Friday. Again, drinks are three and four bucks. All of that is over at Pagatch's Pub 85 in Kirkland. Let's start off with the shortstop. JP Crawford. How big is this year to determine what JP's future looks like in a Mariner uniform? How big is it?

[00:25:53] I want to say huge, but I do wonder if there's too much of a level of inconsistency already to really stamp what his future with the team is. I wonder what his future with the team is. This isn't me saying they're going to trade him. This is just me saying I do wonder if they're really going to give him another contract one way or another. He's just been so up and down. Meaning that you can't predict the future of JP based off of this season, I think, if I take that correctly.

[00:26:21] No, the guy had one of the best years in all of baseball in 2023. It was certainly his career year. Again, he was top 20 in the league in WRC Plus back in 2023. Then you fast forward to 24 and the worst offensive season of his career. Battled injuries. You know, like strikeout rate climbed up a little bit. It is very, very tough to ever really get a stamp on what you can get out of JP Crawford.

[00:26:51] Now, you could paint the picture and say the reason he had a career worst year was injuries. And if he puts that into perspective here in 25 and stays healthy and gets back to something closer to what he did in 23, maybe the perspective will change a bit. But it is very, very hard to really ever nail down what exactly JP Crawford is going to be in a given year. I had a question I was chewing on here. And it all comes back to like, is there going to be pressure on JP Crawford this year?

[00:27:20] Are they going to rely on him as one of their best offensive players this year? Is he going to need to be for them to be successful? I'm sort of in the bucket where they're not going to have to rely on him to do that. I think a reasonable expectation for JP Crawford going forward is his 2022 season with better defense. That's what I feel like. I feel like expecting anything resembling JP Crawford's 2023 season is outlandishly unrealistic. Can I read you something?

[00:27:48] I screenshotted the run value that JP Crawford has produced at the plate every single season. We talk about run value for specific pitches. We talk about it for both pitchers and hitters. But this is like all encompassed into one. What's his total run value for a given year? Negative is bad. Positive is good. Let me run through his entire career for you. 2-0, negative 5, 0, negative 4, negative 5, 27, negative 7.

[00:28:17] Now, where's the outlier, Lyle? I would say it was in 2023. Yeah, to answer your question, though, about how much are the Mariners relying on JP Crawford, in spite of everything they did not do in the offseason, the one thing you can say about the Mariners' offense is it is not nearly as dependent on JP Crawford as it used to be. Because I don't think JP Crawford's going to be hitting leadoff for this team.

[00:28:46] I think Victor Robles is going to be hitting leadoff. You'll probably see Julio hit 2. You'll see Randy hit 3. You'll see Cal hit 4. JP's probably going to be hitting 8th or 9th. That right there alone is a blatant signal that they are not going to rely as much on JP to do what he's done in years past. And rather just say, if you can be a 105 to 110 WRC plus hitter and play good defense, kind of like what he did in 2022, as you alluded to, that's an outcome we're more than happy with.

[00:29:14] They are just not going to rely on him as much offensively. The other thing that's so interesting about JP Crawford is, I think about like the two variations of hitter he is. I think of his 2022 and 2021 versions as one version of himself, and I think of 2023 as a completely different version. Of those two versions, I feel like the 21 and 22 JP's are more of the Kevin Seitzer, Edgar Martinez idea. Right? Of what kind of hitter they want.

[00:29:43] They want more line drives. They want more up the middle. They want less, you know, fly ball selling out for power. And that is for JP Crawford. We've seen the most successful version of himself is being more of the, you know, the last three to four years offensive approach where the Mariners are focusing on a good pitch. They're trying to elevate in the air. They're trying to do damage with these pitches. And JP Crawford, when he finally put it all together in 2023, showed like, yeah, I can do this.

[00:30:12] I can do this in this ballpark. I can do it against both lefties and righties with this strategy. And it worked out great. He had a high walk rate and he had all this, all this slug that just came out of nowhere for himself. But when Kevin Seitzer and Edgar Martinez look at JP Crawford, you know, they see what the best version of him looked like. But do you think they look at him and be like, yeah, that's the kind of hitter he is? Like, that's the kind of hitter we want JP Crawford to be with a higher strikeout rate?

[00:30:40] Yeah, he's got a high walk rate, but he's going to try and sell it for a little bit more power. That doesn't feel like something they would want. I could be wrong. I could be wrong on what JP wants, too, with this. But it just doesn't feel like it. If JP Crawford was going to be a 130 WRC plus hitter again and put up a five win season, I'm pretty sure Kevin Seitzer and Edgar Martinez would be over the moon about that idea. Sure. You're right.

[00:31:09] But then they look at it 2024 and be like, he tried to do that again. And you had your worst offensive season. Right. Where 2021 and 20. Now, I'll say he was hurt last year. That was a big part. JP was hurt. Had a lot of cunt. When you're out of the lineup that much, it's hard to get in a groove. Yeah. He also did not start well, to be fair. So he got hurt after not starting well in April. Right. So it kind of just dragged out all year. But that being said, like, look, if Kevin Seitzer and Edgar said,

[00:31:39] we don't want JP to be who he was in 2023, then they're crazy because that is the best hitter that JP Crawford's ever been. That being said, you're absolutely right. If that's who he's trying to be. And a year ago, he did the same thing and it didn't work. They got to find some level of balance because you got to have JP being an above league average hitter and playing quality defense rather than having what happened last year happen again.

[00:32:05] By the way, before you before you get going here, you talked about how he figured out how to hit in the ballpark. He figured out how to hit both sides of the plate. I hope it's just a one off. But holy hell, you look at the splits that he had from season to season in the ballpark. Look, 2023, JP Crawford mashed in T-Mobile Park. He didn't have a problem hitting in Seattle. His OPS was well over 800.

[00:32:36] Last year, he put up a 480 OPS at home. Is that bad? Yeah, that's that's that's really bad. 480 OPS. Do you remember the do you remember the conversation we had down at spring training about the new philosophy of hitting? Yeah, I do. Oh, sorry. It was an 842 OPS that JP had at home in 2023 just to give people the exact number. Anyway, yes, the conversation we had at spring training. I do remember.

[00:33:04] And the the idea around Saitzer and Edgar was less about one singular approach and more of utilizing the strengths of what a hitter is, right? Like when I think of JP Crawford, and maybe this is a recency bias thing because he had the bad year last year and 2023 is now a year plus removed from from our memory. It just feels it doesn't feel like that is the type of hitter JP Crawford is consistently.

[00:33:33] And if you look at his career again, while it plays out that way, where that year is such an outlier in terms of production that you're like, well, I think JP Crawford as a hitter might be a little bit more like the all the other years combined. And that's what Saitzer and Edgar are going to go up to him and say, listen, we're trying to get the best out of everybody. This is who we believe you are as a hitter. I think that's right. And they want to find some level of consistency. They do. Whatever makes him the most consistent is great.

[00:34:02] If they think about like what he did well in 2023, JP Crawford on his way to a really successful season did a couple of things very well. He started pulling the ball more and he hit fastballs really well. So what he essentially did on a very broad stroke, not going to get any mechanics, not going to get super specific. But since he hit fastballs well and he started pulling, pulling a lot of pitches, he was so dialed in at the plate that he was ready for when fastballs came against both lefties and righties.

[00:34:32] He would get out of front of them and he would pull them in the air. That's how that's the reason he's had such a difference offensively in 2023 as opposed to the rest of his seasons. He did not pull the ball with as much authority this past season. He saw a big drop off when it came to getting around the ball and pulling it last year. Edgar and Saitzer have not have stayed far away from language that says pulling, you know, pulling stuff like that. Right now, very broad stroke.

[00:35:00] Look, secretly, they might be like, yeah, if you're going to do damage, pull the ball. But generally, they don't want guys overthinking it and going up to the plate with that idea. Because I'm sure, Lyle, when JP got dialed in in 2023, he's like, yeah, I know what I'm doing at the plate. I'm going to be down on time and I'm pulling this fly ball. Mm-hmm. Whew. Yeah. It'll be interesting to see what his approach looks like in 2024 or in 2025 and see how different it truly can be. There's still a couple things he did well last year.

[00:35:29] He still walked, which was a good sign. Didn't lose the approach. Wasn't chasing, which has always been a bread and butter of JP Crawford's. But I will be very interested how he does against fastballs, specifically the damage he does against fastballs here in 2025. Because to your point, he is very, very likely not going to do what he did against heaters in 2023. That was such an outlier. He destroyed fastballs. He was still above average against fastballs last year by run value.

[00:35:58] Now, it took a huge drop off from where he was the year prior when he had his career year. But it's also a nice step forward in terms of what he did against fastballs in 2024 compared to what he's done against fastballs the rest of his career. I remember us talking about this a lot early on in the early stages of this podcast. JP just didn't hit fastballs. It wasn't just a one-year thing. It wasn't a two-year thing. It was every year of his career since he's debuted. He has been overmatched by heaters until 2023.

[00:36:29] I want to see if he can keep that up to some extent here in 2025. You do not have to absolutely light the world on fire against heaters. But it's clear it made a difference for him that year. Can he do some level of it here again in 2025 where he is on those fastballs? Even if it's not hitting it out of the yard. Give me an exact number before we move on to Dylan Moore. JP Crawford has to be the X best hitter in this Mariners lineup for them to succeed. Eighth?

[00:36:59] No, not in the batting order. Just overall. I mean, I'm thinking about it. If he's going to hit eighth in the order, at what position can you have a worse offensive? The eighth best hitter? Well, think about it. Think about all the positions. You have Cal at catcher. You have Rayleigh at first. You have Polanco at third. You have... Because again, like Polanco's offensive ceiling for what he's done in his career is better than what JP's is. So you have those three. You have Randy in left. You have Julio in center. You have Robles in right. I don't know, man.

[00:37:26] JP doesn't have to be a stalwart in this offense. He just has to be consistent. A little bit above league average. Because there's a lot of bats in this lineup that can honestly do far more damage than he can do. Let's say like fifth. All right. If you want me to take it up a little bit, I'll say sixth. I would put Julio ahead of him. I put Cal ahead of him. I put Randy ahead of him. I would put Rayleigh ahead of him after the year he just had. And you can pick between either Robles or Polanco to be ahead of him. All right.

[00:37:56] Well, so it's good to have different opinions on this. I, again, the only position that I look at and say, and I say this position, maybe. Now, see, I don't want to word this wrong. I just look at second base and say, look, you kind of know what you're going to get offensively from that position is likely not going to be lighting the world on fire. But if everybody else hits and does what they're supposed to do with JP putting up a

[00:38:26] 105 WRC plus and playing good defense, yeah, that's a good team. That can be an eight hitter, a nine hitter. That's what I think. So I know. Okay. Go ahead. I was going to move us on. But if you have one more point, go ahead. Last quick thing, because we're talking about it. We're talking about Edgar and Seitzer. We're talking about advanced metrics. Do Edgar and Kevin Seitzer know what WRC plus is? Yes or no? Yeah. I'm Edgar. No, I'd say Seitzer does. I don't know.

[00:38:54] Blake Snell didn't know what it was when you asked him. Now he's a pitcher, but he had no clue. You know, I feel like Seitzer's had some conversations with, you know, I would assume in front offices like the Braves, he's with the Braves for a decade. I don't think he talked with guys in the front office. Yeah, he probably did. Does he, like, you bring, does he look at it? Definitely not. There's no shot he looks at it. I'm not asking that. I'm asking him. But he'd be like, oh yeah, I've probably heard of that before.

[00:39:24] Now Edgar, I doubt it. Again, Jerry hired him. So, like, Jerry knows what WRC plus is. Fine. All right, let's keep going. We have a lot of guys to get through. We spent a lot of time on JP. So, Demo, second base, our next player. Are you supposed to be jumping up and down right now? This is your eye. I know. I know. But I did this looking at it pretty objectively.

[00:39:55] And unfortunately, while Dylan Moore can be a valuable player on a really good team, he doesn't do so by getting exposed and playing too many games over the course of a season. Right now, unfortunately, the way the roster has been set up, unless Cole Young comes up at some point during the year and really takes that position by storm, and I hope he does.

[00:40:18] But if he, for whatever reason, does not, it's a lot of Dylan Moore you've got to run out at second base for a guy that's supposed to be a bench player, does well against lefties, can move all around the field. When he plays too much, we've talked about it, he gets exposed, and he's going to play a lot this year. Not only that, what if the Mariners decide they want to play Randy in the outfield less? We'll get to Randy and his defense a little bit later.

[00:40:45] Or, God forbid, they need him to play first? There's a lot of options here. I will give Dylan Moore the biggest shout-out in the world. Dude is like, dude could be a model. Oh, he's... Watching him walk around at spring training, I mean, makes a lot of money playing baseball. Hope he keeps playing for the next 10 years until he retires. It's great. By the way, Kevin Seitzer's one of his top three favorite guys on this team to watch hit. Dylan Moore.

[00:41:15] Do you know that? I actually didn't. Shout-out Seitzer. Yeah. Dude is, like, chiseled like a Greek god. He's absolutely jacked. Yeah. Yeah, he's jacked. And, you know, he looks like a Florida guy. He is a Florida guy. But he looks like it. So shout-out to him. But anyways, back to the baseball. I spent too much time around Brock this past week, I'm going to be honest. This is right up Brock's alley, the Buff Dude Report.

[00:41:44] I was just going to say, technically, Dylan's a SoCal guy. The power source. Technically, Dylan Moore is from California, but he went to UCF for school. But the California thing fits, too. Yeah. California, Florida. I mean, beach. Looks like it spends a lot of time on a beach. Mm-hmm. Okay. But for Dylan Moore, entering spring training, I think he was penciled in to start at second base. Right now, I don't know. I'm going to be honest. I don't know who's starting at second base.

[00:42:12] Well, he's 0 for 18 right now in spring training games. And I know spring training. Spring training stats. Did you listen to Goldie on Wednesday? I know. I know. Throw the stats out. But that's not. Throw the stats out. Lyle. All right. Lyle. Throw him out. All right. Fine. Good. To agree with you and get back to the other side of this, I was going to say, to be fair, Luke Raley had about as bad of a spring last year as you can draw up. And he had a great year. So, yeah.

[00:42:42] So, we know what Dylan Moore is at this point, I think. Especially as a hitter. I do wonder, now that Kevin Seitzer and Edgar Martinez are here, if they see a more productive version of Dylan Moore at the plate. I think in long playing, in big chunks, we know what he is. Like, he's a slightly above league average hitter. We saw that last year. He'll get on base a little bit. He's 5% better than league average.

[00:43:08] I didn't realize, Lyle, by F4, this was his most valuable season this past year. Did not realize that. So, shout out to Demo. Want to go for having that? Hmm? Well, he won a gold glove. Yeah. Yeah. And won a gold glove. And he stole 30 bases. So, it's like, it's great. It's a great volume production. But as a hitter, I was listening to Shannon talk about this. I think it was today on Wyman and Bob. And she was just thinking out loud, like, you know, think of Dylan Moore as a hitter.

[00:43:37] He's not a huge power hitter. Right? Doesn't hit for a high volume of home runs. But he does swing really hard. And he strikes out a lot. So, what if, like, what if Demo dials it back a little bit? With a new hitting regime in town? It's definitely a question to ask, I think. It's fine with me. Because that strikeout rate's got to come down. He was striking out 27.5% of the time last year. There's been years where it's been higher than that. Yeah. You just can't do that as a utility player.

[00:44:07] You've got to drop that strikeout rate. A utility player who has only cracked double-digit home runs, I think, one time. It's a lie. Yeah. Has to cut it down. And hopefully, that would help him do two different things. If he's going to swing a little bit less hard. If he's going to, you know, play more like a utility player would. It would help him out in two areas. Help him out hitting against righties. And help him out hitting it at home. Because he struggles with both of those.

[00:44:35] The career numbers, Lyle, at this point for Dylan Moore. A 92 WRC plus against righties. As opposed to 117 versus lefties. And then an 87 WRC plus at T-Mobile Park. Opposed to a 117 WRC plus on the road. And just remember, the 87 WRC plus is not stacked up with every other park in baseball. It means, despite the fact everyone, everyone's offensive numbers are down at T-Mobile Park.

[00:45:02] Dylan Moore's numbers are still 13% worse than the average of everyone else's drag down numbers. So it's bad at T-Mobile Park. And given that he's going to play half his games there. A tweak would be nice. This is back-to-back guys I'm going to do this with. But you got to paint the picture. I told you JP had a 480 OPS at home last year. Uh-oh. Dylan Moore at home last year. Was better than JP.

[00:45:32] But 503 OPS at T-Mobile Park. Not great. Mm-mm. Nope. Not at all. Now, he had an 840 OPS on the road last year. That is great. There's got to be some balance. To utilize Demo the best, do you think the Mariners need to find him some time in the outfield? Because that is his best defensive position. Let me answer that in a short and sweet way. Yes. Because that's what Dylan Moore is supposed to be doing.

[00:46:00] Dylan Moore is supposed to be moving around the field depending on where he's needed on a given night. He is not supposed to be playing 140 games a year at one position. Yeah. Yes. And I bring that up because his middle infield defense last year graded out poorly. Below average. And we know his outfield defense is above average. So.

[00:46:28] They're just, they're second bases. It's going to be something. Given how thin this roster is, he would be better utilized in his utility role. But I hope he can do that. I really hope he does. I do think, like, literally for the versatility of this roster, it would be better for Bliss to start at second base. So Demo can just be more available. You can still make it work, right? If Demo's starting and Bliss is on the bench. So whenever you need Demo to move around, you move Bliss off the bench.

[00:46:58] You put him at second and Demo can play wherever. But, like, what if you want Bliss and Moore in the lineup at the same time? Demo, you put Randy at DH. You put Demo in left and you put Bliss at second base. And there's a lefty on the mound, right? Like, that feels ideal. The ideal scenario is Ryan Bliss really takes a jump forward this year. Cole Young comes up and is successful. Those two can platoon at second base with Bliss hitting against the lefties. Young hitting against the righties.

[00:47:26] And then Demo goes back to being a platoon guy. So, yes, that's the ideal scenario. Not having Dylan Moore play way too many games in one position. And way too many games, period. Although, I feel like that's a decent transition into Ryan Bliss. So, Mr. Ryan Bliss with 71 career plate appearances to his name. For his brief little introduction to Major League Baseball, Lyle, there were some positives. Technically, he was an above-league average hitter.

[00:47:55] Technically, listen to some of this. He had like a 9% barrel rate. We brought these numbers up before. I think somewhat recently. But I'll just re-bring them up now that we're previewing Ryan Bliss. He had a hard hit rate of 46.5%, which is very good. And he was graded out as a positive defender at second base. Ultra-tiny sample size. But he did show us a little bit there at second base. Now there's the other side of the pendulum I look at with Ryan Bliss.

[00:48:23] And let me preface this by saying, I really want Ryan Bliss to do well. It will be more difficult for the Mariners to get off to a hot start if he doesn't play well at the beginning of the season. He has upside in his bat that they don't really have much in middle infielders. Especially, I think he's got a little bit more power than Cole Young does. If I'm reading it correctly. So, like, we have all of that. Have you ever sat there and just looked at his fan graphs page? And looked at the WRC Pluses by stop?

[00:48:53] Have you sat and looked at it? Yeah, a little bit. A lot of Ryan Bliss' prospect status is based off of a 60-something game sample he had in AA the year the Mariners traded for him. He had already moved up to AAA at that point. Sorry, to AAA at that point. But most of his success came in AA that year. I think it was like a 162 WRC Plus for Ryan Bliss.

[00:49:21] And a look at the rest of his production. It's not that. When you look at a prospect profile. Have you noticed that? Because that was, like, something that stood out to me. It kind of hit me in the face. Yeah, I've noticed it. But the Texas League is not an easy league to hit in either. And he did. So, there is part of me that looks at that and says, yeah, that's really, really good stuff. I hope he brings that to the big league level at some point.

[00:49:50] And it might require the Mariners playing him every day so he's comfortable hitting at T-Mobile Park and hitting against big league staffs. They didn't give him enough plate appearances last year, I think, to really make him feel comfortable in the big leagues. Because, in the end, I've mentioned some of those hard hit stats. And that's great. But he also struck out 31% of the time and walked at a below league average rate. It's a tough sell for a middle infielder who slugged below 400. Mm-hmm.

[00:50:20] It's a very tough sell. He's going to be interesting. Because, yeah, strikeout rate has to come down a little bit. You need him to get on base a bit more. But you also have to let him get in somewhat of a rhythm. You said it. There was about a two-ish week stretch where they were giving him some consistent at-bats. And then after that, down to AAA, would come back up, would barely see any at-bats over the course of a week. He was used as a pinch runner. He would sit on the bench a long time.

[00:50:49] Maybe he'd get a start here and there. Back to AAA, was back up at the end of the year. It's really hard, especially for a rookie, to get into any sort of rhythm when you're not getting real at-bats. Now Ryan Bliss has a chance to get some real at-bats, and it'll be interesting to see what he does when he has the season kickoff and get underway here in April. Or, I guess, late March. Because he's going to have a real chance to earn something here. I will be interested to see what he can do at the plate. I hope, again, we see the strikeout rate get cut down a bit.

[00:51:18] He's not a guy that chases a lot. It's not the approach. It's more just needing to whiff less. And can he make more contact? Can he barrel up more baseballs? I also do think that if they put him on the bench, he would be valuable there for him. Because he's got some speed off the speed base running-wise. Sure. He's netted. Yeah, like he's fast. I just don't know if that benefits him to do that.

[00:51:44] I was going to say, he can be a bench player, but he needs a couple starts a week. He can't be the type of bench player he was being used as last year where he was barely seeing the batter's box. He wasn't getting at-bats. If you want Ryan Bliss to be a successful second baseman and a real part of this team and a real part of this offense, you're going to have to let him get some at-bats in. And I'm sure Ryan knows this, too. Ryan definitely knows this, too.

[00:52:08] He's kind of playing for a second base job because if Ryan Bliss gets to June and he's a league average or below-league average bat at this point and Cole Young's playing really well in AAA, it's going to be Cole Young's job. They're going to bring him up and they'll start playing him every day. Yeah, they'll play Cole Young against righties. I would bet you in year one you will see Cole play against righties a lot more than lefties. I'm not. I'm not sure. Yeah, okay. Yeah. It makes sense. What you're saying makes sense.

[00:52:37] That might be the best version of second base, but will they do that? We'll see. It just feels like an easier way to ease Cole Young into things in year one while also still getting more of a full season of understanding who Ryan Bliss is as a player. Especially because, and the reason I bring this up for people, I think we've mentioned this before, hitting lefties has not been Cole Young's strength in the minor leagues. That is something you will have to watch for in terms of his development as a big leaguer. You're right.

[00:53:06] We were talking to somebody though that said it didn't make much sense to them to bring Cole Young up and bench him against lefties. And maybe they won't. It impedes his development. Sure. Maybe they won't do that. Which is again where you're going to cross the bridge of it's the same thing with Bliss. Are you looking to put the best possible product on the field, which would probably be a Bliss-Cole Young platoon at second base,

[00:53:29] or do you want them to develop properly, which would be playing either one of them every single day at second base? Mm-hmm. Right. Yeah. Second base, while it has plenty of question marks going into the year, it's also going to be a very interesting storyline to watch in terms of how it all unfolds. Let's get to Victor Robles as we move to the outfield, Lyle. Are we a Victor Robles believer in 2025?

[00:54:00] Do I think he's going to be one of the best hitters in baseball again, the way he was in September or in parts of the second half of last year? Feels unlikely. Do I think Victor Robles is going to have a good year? Yeah, I do. I think he is going to take that leadoff spot and run with it this year. So what's your expectation? Because let's give some context into last season. If you extrapolate what Vic did with the Mariners over the course of an entire season,

[00:54:27] first of all, he has like 70 stolen bases, and he's about a six-win player, which, by the way, would be the 11th most valuable hitter in baseball last year, by the way, Victor Robles. That's pretty good. That was pretty good. I would say if the Mariners can get three wins out of Victor Robles this year, I think it would be a mighty successful story. I find it really hard to see him have a 141 WRC+.

[00:54:57] But then when someone like Cal tells us at spring training, oh, I'm putting my stamp on Vic this season, that is 1,000% real what Victor Robles did last year. I'm like, what is Cal talking? I mean, he kind of knows what he's talking about. And that's the thing. You want to take every player's word when you hear him talk, and not to say that we don't, and we don't listen to everything, and we don't listen to the things that these guys say. But I think it's also fair to say,

[00:55:26] when the leader of the team speaks, and he says something of that magnitude, you can't help but perk up a little bit. I don't think it's any question Cal Raleigh is the leader of this team. When he says, I think Victor Robles is going to be the same guy again, a.k.a. Cal saying, I think he's going to have another big year, you can't ignore that. Because like you said, the guy knows what he's talking about. He's seen plenty at this point.

[00:55:52] Am I going to sit here and stamp that Victor Robles is going to be 40% above league average as a hitter again? No. Because again, that makes him an MVP candidate. I hope he is. I hope Victor Robles legitimately now all of a sudden is the prospect he was once supposed to be, or the player he was once supposed to be as a prospect. However, I'm not going to stamp that. That being said, if Victor Robles is a 115 to 120 WRC plus hitter, plays the defense he did last year, has a great arm by the way,

[00:56:23] runs the base as well, if he swipes 25 bags, that is a picture perfect leadoff hitter. I would be all for that. And what I'm describing right now, all spits out probably about a three, three and a half win season, which is what you said is a success for Vic. If he plays all season, he could swipe more than 20. He could, I would set, if he plays 130 games, I mean, he should get at least to the marquee set last year. He's not going to be as efficient.

[00:56:52] If he goes 34 of 36 again, I would be flabbergasted. Especially Lyle, consider he did that. He's only 63rd percentile sprint speed. Like it takes more than speed to swipe bags. You need to have great instincts. You need to have good jumps. You need to read pitchers. You need to pick the right pitches. And then you need to be just a tough son of a gun to, to get out there and, and go do it. Like Victor Robles did last year. If we were to talk to like a more rational person about this, let me, let's throw an example out there. Jason Churchill,

[00:57:20] one of the most rational level-headed baseball and analysis analysts that we know. If we said, Jason, uh, we want to base, uh, what Victor Robles did in 77 games with the Mariners last year to protect his 2025 season. He'd be like, what the hell are you doing? So, uh, and by the way, we'll probably have Jason on here in a three weeks before the season starts. Um, that's become a nice little tradition of ours right before the year.

[00:57:50] We usually have church on, and it's usually a fun time to have them on right before the year kicks off. So he'll do, and he'll snap us out of it, whatever spring training transfer in and, and, uh, and do that anyways. Like that's the context there. Like think of the context with that. So we have what Cal Raleigh said about Victor Robles. We have all the great things he did. We have the fact it was all in a 77 game sample, which by the way, also happened to coincide with him having a three 70 batting average on balls in play last year. It's really high.

[00:58:19] That's a high number. Three 50 is usually about the top number you can sustain when it comes to batting average on balls in play. Anything beyond that is a little bit lucky, but even if that goes down to like three 30, I still think that's a really productive player, uh, that Victor Robles can be. He doesn't, honestly don't even think he needs to slug, uh, slug 400. It'd be like three 90. I think that's more than good enough. Say like a three 50 on base,

[00:58:45] a three 90 to 400 slug for Vic and just smack a bunch of doubles. This dude loves hitting line drives. The Mariners talk about now how much they love line drives and hitting out the middle. Well, that's what Vic does. So just keep them doing it. What's he going to do against righties this year? He's not somebody that his, for his career had crazy success against right-handed pitching, except in 2024, when he put up a 900 OPS against righties.

[00:59:14] I don't know because up until the season, he also wasn't a good major league baseball player. We're definitely not a good hitter. Right. So like it's, it's an entire mystery. It's, it is really hard to predict someone who had such a drastic and like a drastic and not small, but half season breakout that Victor Robles did going into this year. You can look at a savant page and be like, yeah, well, his quality of context, not great. It doesn't hit the ball a ton, a really hard. It doesn't have a high barrel rate.

[00:59:44] His whiff rate is about average. He chases a little bit, but then you look, Oh, well, he's, he's above average in batting run value and he's above average in base running run value. And he's above average in fielding run value. And you're like, well, it seems pretty sustainable. Feels like it, but we're just going to have to see. And some of those peripherals get dragged down from what he did early in the year, last year in Washington compared to in Seattle. Part of it. Exactly. But it's,

[01:00:14] it's, I can't wait to see what Victor Robles can do. He is so loved already by his teammates in this city. He's got all this energy. He's so good for that clubhouse. And it's kind of an open canvas for what he could do in 2025. Could he just be a fourth outfielder? Yeah, it's possible. We'll see how it all shakes out. But man, again, I'm not going to stamp this, but could he be an all-star and some six win player this year based off what he did last year?

[01:00:44] It's not impossible. Not after what he did. I'm not going to say it's likely, but it's not impossible. We know it's in there. The guy was supposed to be Juan Soto when he came up different play styles. It's not exactly what I'm saying, but he was supposed to be the superstar that Juan Soto now is. It's possible. I have two more things before we move on to our final two contestants on the preview, Julio and Randy. So, I had forgotten this. You know, the season blends together a little bit,

[01:01:11] but just consider the kind of pressure that was on Vic when he had to start playing every day. He essentially had to take over two separate roles in one when he started playing every day. JP Crawford and Julio Rodriguez in July got hurt on consecutive days and went on the injured list. So, Vic needed to go into center and he needed to be the Mariners leadoff hitter. And man, like think about the two players based off of the seasons those two had just had,

[01:01:42] the role he's stepping into at a crucial point like that where the Mariners were in the midst of falling out of playoff contention and they really needed, they needed his bat with two of the guys that spent the season prior as their two best hitters. They needed him to step up and I mean, man, he did. I also think about this in the context of the outfield where you have, you know, almost the bigger than thou Julio who is star status, like celebrity. He's the,

[01:02:11] he's the star of the city for, for, for everything. The biggest star in the city. So he's got, you know, especially with DK about to leave, right? He's on that pedestal. You have Randy who is an interesting cat. He's kind of plays with energy, but he's kind of, you know, he's kind of in his own world a little bit. It's different. So like when you have Vic as part of this outfield, I mean,

[01:02:38] he seems like the guy in this outfield that really connects with the fan base and that the fan base can truly feel that, you know, emotion with, which I think is, is fantastic. More than the, more than the other two. I'd say you can love rooting for the other two, but in terms of relatability, I feel like Vic is, is the guy for that. During that Philly series last year, when he hit that home run to left field to lead off the first inning. Oh my God. And we were out in left field when that happened.

[01:03:03] Cause I remember we had gone to meet up with somebody that was at the game and we just see this white pill come off Victor Robles' bat. Just an absolute rocket. No, we didn't see it. We heard it. And then we heard it. And at the last second, I saw it basically going over the trajectory of our heads. Cause it went like into the upper deck and you can see Robles. He's turned to the dugout. He chucks his bat. He's screaming. I was like, this guy is awesome. And he is. He hadn't even, he had kind of broken out at that point,

[01:03:32] but not like September, put a stamp on it. Sure. Absolutely. All right. Two to go. Randy Arosa Reina, the guy that will be the team's starting left fielder for all of 2025. They did not have that throughout the course of 24. They had him for a couple months. Now you get a full year of Randy. Interesting player. What should we expect? I think some people might think Julio is the most polarizing player.

[01:04:01] I think it might be Randy. He is really interesting. This could be a season where Randy proves that. And I don't want people to take this the wrong way, but proves that he can be a productive or above average major leaguer. I'm dead serious. Does that sound weird? It sounded really weird coming out of my mouth, but consider this last year for Randy. Remember how I mentioned that Vic was above average in run value in all three phases of the game, batting, fielding, running?

[01:04:30] Randy was below average in all three last year. And he's on the other side of 30 now. And he's going to be getting more expensive. And his defense isn't getting much better. I find it looking at two different sides of the coin. I remember when we talked about Randy when he got here, talking about his 2023 season, and how that was the best season of his career. It was his best walk rate, his best quality of contact, which by the way, his quality of contact this past season

[01:04:59] was the second best it had been his entire career. It just didn't lead to as many results as he wanted to. But we're also seeing with Randy, aside from the offensive aspect, we're seeing some deterioration in other parts of his game. Yeah, he had the 20 steals, but he had 20 steals and still was 32nd in base running run value last year. It makes me raise an eyebrow on whether or not,

[01:05:29] whether I can be certain that Randy can be a valuable contributor to this upcoming season. I hope he will. And the most important one is about his bat. But you look at all the other things, it almost is going to have to be his bat. Because it doesn't feel like they're going to get much from anywhere else. He's supposed to be the second best hitter on the team. That was the expectation. That is the expectation, especially when they brought him in here.

[01:05:59] Somebody to... I don't want to quite say he... I mean, I was going to say the whole like, you know, sidekick to Julio thing, but it's not even really about that. He has to be the second best hitter in the lineup. And last year, he was good. He was about 18% above league average as a hitter once he got to Seattle last year. But it's weird. This is why I say he's polarizing. By just the standard look at it,

[01:06:29] when you look at his OPS plus, well above average. But then you look into some of the specifics and you see, like you mentioned, TJ, batting run value below average, base running below average, fielding below average. He's way below average in OAA in terms of defensive metrics. He doesn't run all that great despite stealing bases. He's 30 now. There's two very different sides to this. Randy was a good player for the Mariners last year.

[01:06:59] And we know when he gets hot, there might not be anybody in baseball that can get hotter than Randy Orozarena when he is at his best, especially for a two to three week stretch of time. But who is he going to be at season's end? Is he going to be the second best bat in the lineup? Is he going to be a Mount Rushmore bat in this lineup? Or is he really going to run into a flurry of problems? And note that he's going to have to hit in T-Mobile Park all year

[01:07:27] as opposed to the two best months of last year when he was in Tampa Bay. The two best months he had last year were before he got to Seattle. It was the two months leading in. He had over a 160 WRC plus in June and July. Gets to Seattle. Again, he was good in Seattle, but he was great the two months before in the middle of the season. And then the two months to start the season, he was atrocious. Yeah. So it was essentially a story of three different... It's not quadrant. What's three?

[01:07:57] Dits? No, no. It's like a quad. Not trio, but... Semester? Whatever it is. You get the point. You get the point. We went to Arizona fucking state, people. Thirds of season. Three drastically different thirds of the season. Man, that was way too difficult. Again, again. Please... Hold up. Again, we went to Arizona fucking state, people. You didn't come here to listen to intelligence.

[01:08:24] If Randy Rosarena puts up a 733 OPS, which is what he did as a Mariner last season, do you think he's a league average player? No, because he's got no defensive value. He has to hit better than that. Right. I came to the same conclusion. He played a career high in games last year, 154 games, and didn't accumulate two wins above replacement. Yeah. That is really hard to do.

[01:08:51] For being, again, an above average hitter and still getting under two wins. It's interesting. I mean, we were talking with someone about prospect value and wins above replacement and the disadvantage that DHs have coming up as prospects, mostly spurred because MLB Pipeline came out and put our guy Laz as their number two prospect, and talking about the value differences between someone who comes up as a DH

[01:09:18] versus someone who comes up as a position player and their values. Well, Randy still played a bunch in the outfield and still didn't crack two wins. Yeah. Now, I will say more on the positive side, he has been a good hitter in T-Mobile Park for his career. 37 games, 261 average, 823 OPS, six bombs. We'll see what he does in a full year. His career in T-Mobile Park has been solid, but we're going to need to see what it looks like in a full season in a Mariners uniform this year.

[01:09:47] The other part of this, final thing before I think we get to our last guy, you got to hit fastballs, Randy. You have to hit fastballs. Listen to this. You want to talk about where most of the problems stem for Randy at the plate last year? Randy Rosarena hit 180 against fastballs last year. Against four-seam fastballs, he hit 180. That just can't happen.

[01:10:11] For context, a season ago, he hit 261 and slugged 552. In 2024, he hit 180 and he slugged 389. You got to hit fastballs, Randy. If you don't, you're just not going to have the value that the Mariners expected for when they traded for you. Got to hit the heater. Randy's making $12 million this year in arbitration. I imagine next year he'll make somewhere around $18 million.

[01:10:39] If he doesn't, I would say if he doesn't find a way to add value to different parts of his game, and again, this is all irrelevant if he comes out and he has a great offensive season like he did in 2023 because then the rest of his game doesn't matter as much. But if he does what he did last year offensively and doesn't add much value in other parts of his game, base running and defense, I do think for a cash trap organization like the Mariners,

[01:11:07] they would use that as justification to trade him. And I know people don't want to trade him, but that would be a really easy justification. This is, remember what happened with Jesse Winker when, remember Lyle, he wasn't hitting and wasn't adding value everywhere. They could not wait to get him out of the clubhouse. Could not wait. Right. We'll see. I think that's very valid. Randy doesn't hit this year. He's going to be owed somewhat close to $18 million in his final year of arbitration. Yeah.

[01:11:36] He may not be a Mariner next year. Let's hope he just hits, and he is. By the way, one little correction. Mariners are not cash strapped. They choose to be cash strapped. All right, let's move on. Okay, last guy. Julio Rodriguez. How much of the numbers do we even want to break down here? So much of Julio for me is just start hot.

[01:12:06] Get off to a good start. Pretty simple. Have a good April. Have a good first two weeks. Do that. I'm sure you will. Look, we're numbers people. You love digging into this stuff. I obviously like digging into this stuff. Maybe we'll break it down a little bit. For me, it is just get hot in April and go. Because you have not done that in any of your first three seasons in the big leagues. His WRC Plus by April. 81 last year.

[01:12:36] 109 in 2023. 62 in 2022. It's been a freezing cold month for him. I do feel like that's the simplest way to look at it. I also understand that he has definitely a better connection with Edgar and the offensive philosophy than it seemed like he was leading on to the previous regime last year. From, I guess, what we picked up.

[01:13:04] It feels like he likes this better. Now, the results are what is going to matter. What Julio likes versus doesn't like. We're just going to, I'd say, have to find out with that. But as we talked about after the season, you know, I hope Julio sat back and reflected a little bit on what went wrong for him last year. And where he can, you know, make up his shortfalls of what he had last season.

[01:13:33] And try to not get to the trade deadline like he did last year in being a league average hitter. Because, frankly, for a team that doesn't spend and chooses not to spend, like the Mariners, the one guy they have decided to spend their money on is Julio Rodriguez. And they need him to perform. This is just basic math. Players you spend your most money on, you probably want to be your best players. By war, yeah, he's up there because he plays unbelievable center field defense.

[01:14:02] This dude is, like, with everything else we're saying, he's the best center fielder in baseball. Like, let's not get us twisted. Consider everything we're saying with the fact that Julio Rodriguez is the best center fielder in baseball. And this is with Aaron Judge moving back to right, with Mike Trout now aging and also moving to right. Yes. Right. So, consider that. And I lost my train of thought. God damn it. It was going to be a good one.

[01:14:32] Julio was the best center fielder in baseball last year despite all the struggles, etc., etc. Before that. What was I saying before that? You were talking about basic math that best player has to play. Yeah. So, like, they decided to pay him out of all these guys. They might not extend a single other one of their players, which is a joke. They should extend those guys. Yeah. Because the whole reason you draft develop trade is to pay your own guys. And they've... Jerry has constantly come out and said, yeah, we want to keep our guys here. Great. Okay.

[01:15:01] So, go do that. Anyways. The one guy they have decided to pay a ton of money to, they need him to perform. If this is how they're going to operate, like, that's how these guys are successful. The Braves are... The Braves don't trade for Matt Olsen and then have him not produce as Matt Olsen does. No, Matt Olsen produces as Matt Olsen does. Austin Riley does the same thing. Ronald Acuna did the same thing. Ozzie Albies did the same thing, right? Like, that's the model. If that's the model you're chasing, then you need to... You do need the guy to perform.

[01:15:29] And that's where I come back to, is there unfair pressure on him? I don't think so. He's making $20 million this year. Yeah, he's 24. He's making $20 million this year. So, he doesn't really get a choice in that. And I hate to do it, but this is a real conversation. A lot of the sanity of this fan base rests in the hands of Julio Rodriguez in the month of April.

[01:15:57] How often do we talk about when Julio goes, the offense goes? 100% true. This offense seems to have a lot less problems when Julio Rodriguez is playing well and is at his best. Goldie made the comp on Wednesday to the Royals and Bobby Witt Jr. When Bobby Witt is playing at his peak, a lot gets solved for the Royals. They made the playoffs last year. Julio has another slow April. I don't want to see how this fan base is going to react.

[01:16:26] People are already on edge. People are already kind of on the brink. Opening day ticket numbers, by the way, right now don't look great. I hope they go up in the next couple weeks, but you just look online. It's not really anywhere close to being sold out. I think that's a reflection of how people are feeling right now. Mariners have a good April. That all changes. People get bought back in. Julio's hot. People want to be at the games. They say, team's playing well.

[01:16:55] They have a 12 and 14 or whatever month of April or however many games they play. And Julio's got an 85 WRC+. Paired with everything that's gone on in the last six to eight months with this team, specifically in the offseason. Bad recipe, man. Again, it's probably not unfair pressure at this point to say Julio has to be the star. He has to drive the offense. This is what he's paid to do.

[01:17:21] So there's even more pressure on him to wrap this up in the first month of the season because you have got to draw people in fast this year. We're not even, again, we're not breaking down Julio's numbers here. We're not talking about his WRC+. We're not talking about his run value against fastballs. We're talking about what he has to do to keep people interested this year. And fortunately or unfortunately, it relies very, very heavily on him.

[01:17:49] You've got to get people bought back in in the first month of the year because right now people are kind of one foot in, one foot out, if that. You've got to get people drawn back in. There are some numbers I want to hit on here. Okay. Let me start by reading you a list of names. So I have a game for you. Okay. Tell me what the significance of this batch of names is. Andrew McCutcheon, Logan Ohoppy, Julio Rodriguez, Dalton Varsho, and Brendan Rodgers.

[01:18:16] I don't know. That sounds like the compilation of players that a player can get compared to on baseball Savant. You know how when you look at a player's season on Savant and it'll compare them to four or five different guys from a certain season? That's what it sounds like it is. Those are the two players in front of and behind of Julio Rodriguez in slugging percentage last year. Hmm. Yeah, not great.

[01:18:47] Julio stepped to the plate 613 times last year and had 17 doubles and zero triples. He had 37 extra base hits total last year. That is crazy. He did not have one triple. 37. 37. Yeah. Bobby Witt, by the way, if we're comping, had more than twice as many.

[01:19:13] Think of Julio Rodriguez, who has 96th percentile sprint speed, had 17 doubles and triples. Yeah. Look, he has been passed up by this at this point by his peers. He has been significantly passed up by Bobby Witt Jr. And he has been passed up by Gunnar Henderson. What he has to do in 2025 is earn that back. Remind people who he's capable of being, that at his best, he can absolutely be better than both of those guys.

[01:19:42] And that's a heavy statement considering what Bobby Witt just did last year. But he can be. He has to remind people and prove to people that he can still do that. Because right now, he has absolutely been passed up by both those guys as players. And there's another thing, too, that I just can't wrap my head around. He had a zero base running run value last year. He got picked off a lot. I know. How?

[01:20:08] These are all things, like, I'm sure Julio is very well aware of at this point. In terms of what he needs to improve on. The floor for Julio, like, it should be 30 doubles, 5 triples, 25 homers, a top 20% base runner. 130 WRC+. Like, that should be the baseline. And top 10 in MVP voting every year. Yeah. That's what it should be.

[01:20:35] One final note here on Julio that I thought was significant. In which, you know, again, I hope he's got a better idea of his swing last year. I remember talking to Divish in May last year about, you know, Julio just seems kind of all over the place with his swing and was toying with a lot of things. And it took until late last season to figure it out. Well, it really showed in his ability to pull the ball. And pulling is where, even with guy with Julio's power, where a lot of your power comes from.

[01:21:02] And he pulled it, pulled baseballs at by far the least amount last year. And, you know, it showed when he doesn't have his timing, his effectiveness and his ability to do damage on a baseball are, you know, severely impacted. And that's something he's got. I'm sure he's got his eye on for this upcoming season. That's got to change because they can't, they cannot have the same thing happen with Julio last year. He can't, can't roll into the deadline doing what he did. And the team is sort of just kind of like bobbing along.

[01:21:29] If they're going to reach Jerry's process of doing the process correctly, the process requires Julio Rodriguez doing what he did in 2022. That's what it requires. Let me remind people. During the week of the 4th of July last year, about halfway through the season, we talked about what Julio had done over the last year and a half to that point in time.

[01:21:54] Offensively, he was Jazz Chisholm as a player over a year and a half stretch. Julio was Jazz Chisholm as a player. Now look, the final six weeks of the year last year, he got really hot. I hope he continues that. But you cannot be having a guy make $20 million a year to be Jazz Chisholm at the plate. You have got to be the driving point of this offense. If you want to have a successful year, you have to be. He has to be. Yep. Simple as that.

[01:22:24] Start hot, Julio. Yep. And then, of course, there's the win-loss numbers as well, which we've talked about before. Talked about it on TV. 8. 47 OPS Lyle last year in wins. 5.97 OPS in losses. It's pretty drastic. Goes through Julio. Nobody impacts the game on this roster like Julio Rodriguez. If they're going to believe in this roster, it needs to start with him. Has to. Yep. No doubt. All right.

[01:22:53] Good show. A lot packed into that one. Again, usually we do just a couple positions. But since we missed last week's preview because we had an awesome interview with Ty P, which, by the way, if you haven't checked that out yet, go check it out. He was the man. We absolutely love that conversation. So that's why we did both the middle infielders and outfielders in this preview this week. Next Friday, we'll just do the starting pitchers. This upcoming Wednesday, we've got another really cool in-person sit-down interview, player interview with our friend Logan Evans.

[01:23:23] So stick around for that. We are really looking forward to having you guys hear that one. All right. That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. You want to listen to the full-form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure to download. Please rate and review. Leave it five stars. If you're on YouTube, like, drop a comment, hit that subscribe button. It's right in front of you, red. It's clear as day. Takes a second to do. It really does help us out if you just hit subscribe on YouTube. Go check out our Patreon. We're going to be adding a bunch of cool stuff to it.

[01:23:52] It's brand new. We're just getting it rolling. Please go check that out. And then follow us everywhere on social media, at MarineLayerPod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.