Episode 217: How Much Better Can The Mariners Rotation Be? (Starting Pitcher Preview)

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 217 of the Marine Layer Podcast. It's our starting pitcher preview. We'll take a look at the Mariners rotation and their outlook for the 2025 season. This show is brought to you by our friends over at Pogaccia's Pub 85 that's over in Kirkland. You guys know it's an awesome spot to go hang out. March Madness is right around the corner. You guys, there's 20 TVs in that place. There's great food. There's games. You need a place to go watch with your friends when that starts up head over there. It's awesome. And along with all that.

[00:00:29] Happy Hour deals. You're not going to find better Happy Hour deals. Three and four dollar drinks during Happy Hour and that's 2 to 6 p.m. Monday through Friday. So they're not short either. You've got time to get in there, have some great drinks, plan a time with your friends, watch some sporting events, you name it. So if you want to do all of that, and how could you not, head over to Pogaccia's Pub 85 over in Kirkland.

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[00:01:56] Laz Montez, etc., etc. So it's definitely something you should go check out. Lyle, I assume you'd watch Durangelo if you're turning your TV on and looking for one guy. Yes. The guy throws with both arms. How could you not? And we haven't really gotten to see it yet. We've seen Colt Emerson and Felmin Celestine, Lazaro Montez, all those guys play in spring training games so far, and they've been awesome.

[00:02:21] But we haven't really gotten to see Durangelo. In fact, we haven't gotten to see him pitch, period, since he's been in the Mariners' org, because they didn't have him throwing any affiliated ball last year. So this could be people's first chance to see him on live TV, throwing with both arms. I can't wait. That is what I am circling to go and sit down and watch. I hope he pitches. Felmin's on the roster, too, in case you're curious. So definitely something to circle and look forward to if you're looking for something to watch on Friday. So pay attention to that.

[00:02:50] Let's get into our starting pitching preview. And let's start out, Lyle. I wanted to start out at the back of the rotation and work our way forward to the top. So we'll start with your guy, Brian Wu, in the number five slot. Let me just, I'm going to roll out the red carpet for you right now. Well, if you're rolling out the red carpet, I'll say this. He's not a number five starter. The fact he's been penciled as that in this rotation says all that needs to be said about this rotation.

[00:03:19] In most pitching staffs, even with the limited sample size he's had, he's what? A two? A three? In most staffs, he'd be that. In the Mariner staff, he's five. Based on workload right now, I'd say he's a three. If he gets up to like 180, 190, then two slash one. And this is going to be a big year for him. This is a year he could do exactly that. If he stays healthy, which he really seemed like he figured some stuff out in the second half down the stretch last year,

[00:03:48] where he was working deep into games and remaining effective. We went on a Pirates podcast with a couple of guys who are part of the Just Baseball Network. And I said, you want me to stamp something this year? I think Brian Wu can be an all-star. And my bold prediction is he will be an all-star. If he's throwing six, seven innings a night and continuing to do what he was doing last year, why on earth not? This guy had a 2-8-9 ERA last year. He stopped walking anybody. The guy walked less guys than George Kirby.

[00:04:17] George Kirby doesn't walk anybody. Wu was walking less guys than George Kirby last year, paired with the fact that Lefty stopped hitting him. He minimizes hard contact. His ERA was under three. Again, this is year two for a guy that had Tommy John out of college, was drafted in the sixth round, and has still thrown less than 200 big league innings. They're slightly over that. It's amazing. And I think this is going to be a huge year for what Brian Wu can do.

[00:04:45] I do want people to sit back and, as we talk about Brian Wu and Bryce Miller, who will come up next, just how unusual it is that the Mariners managed to hit on both of them, drafting them both within a year of each other, bringing them up, essentially just throwing them into the big leagues for them to swim, and then they turn into this. It's just unusual. It never happens.

[00:05:08] And yet the Mariners have essentially struck gold with over a third of their rotation being of that build and of that makeup. Let me amend one quick thing that you said. Wu and Miller were the same draft class. So even more impressive, they got those guys in the same year. Wasn't Wu 21? Yeah, him and Bryce both were. Huh. Okay, I got my years mixed up then. Regardless, it's very unusual that that happened. Very unusual.

[00:05:38] I, for some reason, thought Bryce was drafted in the 2020 draft. Anyways, how unusual it is that you get these mid-round picks and they turn into like the uniqueness and the ultimate run suppression that the two of them have rolled out this past year with a sub-3 ERA. Let me blow your mind with a Brian Wu stat. I found this while I was researching and it makes sense, but having someone put it in perspective really made it hit home for me.

[00:06:07] So Brian Wu had a .9 whip last year. Among all pitchers age 24 or less to have a .9 whip and throw 120 innings or more, that's the fun fact. There are no other ones. It's just Brian Wu. Brian Wu is the only pitcher in the live ball era to throw 120 innings and have a whip of .9 or less. And whip meaning walks and hits per innings pitched. The stat gets even crazier.

[00:06:33] When you expand it to pitchers age 27 or younger, you can throw 2024 Logan Gober in that class. We'll get to him about how unbelievable his 2024 season was. But listen to some of these other names. You have Clayton Kershaw in 2014 and 2015, who those are the two of the best pitching seasons for a lefty, I think, of all time. Kershaw won the MVP in 2014. In 2015, he nearly won the Cy Young, only to be beat out by an unbelievable Jake Arrieta season.

[00:07:02] Kershaw struck out 300 batters that season. That's how good he was. And then you have two pitchers, Lyle, in the year of the pitcher in 1968, Dave McNally and Luis Teant. And then you have Sandy Koufax and Satchel Paige. That's a pretty good list to mention. Brian Wu, Logan Gilbert, Clayton Kershaw, Sandy Koufax, and Satchel Paige. Unbelievable.

[00:07:26] What an unbelievable pitching group this Mariners organization has put together. And Brian Wu might be the gem of them all from where he was in college until now. Just insane. Isn't there an argument his upside is legitimately the highest in this rotation? You could say Logan. You could say Kirby. I'm not saying it's definitive because what Kirby can do, we'll get to. His upside is obviously Greg Maddox that throws 100 if he actually hits that.

[00:07:55] But there is an argument to be made that Wu's upside is just that disgusting and just that good. Let me say his uniqueness might be at the top, right? It's such a fastball especially. I think that's the fair point because it's the low release. It's the fact no one can really hit it, which I think sets, gives the allure of that uniqueness. And you could be totally right.

[00:08:19] I'd say the big difference between him and someone like Logan Gilbert is Logan Gilbert has literally was looking at it while Logan Gilbert doesn't have a single pitch in negative run value. Right. Not one. He throws six. Not one is in the negative. So it's like it's kind of hard at this point to make that case. But, you know, anything can happen. Again, I didn't say it was definitive. I'm saying one can make an argument. You're talking. You could make an argument for it.

[00:08:46] You're talking about a guy that when you look at his two fastballs last year because we know those are his two dominant pitches. It combined for a run value of 22. For context, that ranks in the 98th percentile of all of Major League Baseball. Sixth round pick in 2021. Sixth round pick in 2021. Reliever in college. Tommy John surgery. And he turns around last year after getting torched by left-handed bats in his rookie year. Only to totally neutralize them in year two.

[00:09:14] While also not walking anybody. So you mentioned in your opening statement, you mentioned Brian Wu alongside George Kirby. And I want to focus on those two a little bit as my last point here for Wu. Because I'm expecting Wu to have a really good season. If he stays healthy, I'm with you, Lyle. I think he's going to be an all-star. Or he has a good chance of being an all-star. You never know what the selection, the voting, the rotation of pitchers. It's kind of a crapshoot. But if you pitch well, you put yourself in a really good position to do so.

[00:09:41] So if he stays healthy and shows a little bit what he did in the final two months of the season. Where he was up there among innings leaders and ERA leaders. Among every pitcher in baseball. Down the stretch. He's shown he can do it. Now he needs to do it. Instead of two months, he does it for, let's say, four months in a row. Four months without a hiccup would be nice for Brian Wu. I was curious because George Kirby and Brian Wu have a penchant for throwing a lot of strikes.

[00:10:10] They throw a ton of pitches in the strike zone. Both have walk rates below, I believe, 3% as of last year. Wu's is slightly lower. But at least for me, I have a perception of the two pitchers of their seasons last year that were slightly different. Wu finished really strong. He had the sub-3 ERA. I felt like Kirby arguably took a step back or a step back or a sidestep compared to his 2023 season.

[00:10:36] So I get into the mindset where I tweeted this thread out, by the way. If you need a more visual numbers look at this, you can go to my Twitter account at TJ Matthewson and take a look at what I'm talking about. How are they different in the strike zone? Was there a massive difference between the two? Was Wu doing something different than George Kirby? Is he getting different results?

[00:10:58] And despite the fact that the end result, like the result on the ball in play for Brian Wu was better than it was for George Kirby, I would just like to tell as a people of caution to say what Brian Wu is doing is 1,000% sustainable. And that's something that would happen to Kirby last year where he gave up a ton of hits. He had some blow-up starts. Isn't possible for Brian Wu or is less possible for Brian Wu. I would pump the brakes on that a little bit. Let me run through these numbers with you really quickly, Lyle.

[00:11:26] So, for example, George Kirby last year allowed a slug in the strike zone of .451. Brian Wu's was .387. It's like, all right, well, Brian Wu's just better at suppressing hard contact in the zone than George Kirby is. So, surely Wu must have a lower launch angle and there must be a lower exit velocity as well. That's not true. Brian Wu actually allowed a higher exit velocity, a higher launch angle in the strike zone, just about the same hard hit rate, and the same average exit velocity in the strike zone.

[00:11:56] Very baseline numbers. So, the ball off the bat in the strike zone, relatively the same between the two guys. One had worse results than the other. One had a season that one would view as a sidestep. One had a season he would view as a step forward. I would just like to say that Brian Wu is probably, when we bring up George Kirby here soon, going to work on the same things that George Kirby works on, is going to try and work on this year, which is throwing more quality pitches out of the strike zone.

[00:12:25] Because that'll help him take that next step forward, that Cy Young step that, Lyle, you like to preach so much of. Sure, there's definitely things for Brian to work on. I think durability probably jumps out in front of the page as the overarching thing, because what does Brock like to say? Best type of ability is availability. So, you need Wu on the field. And I think he's going to be very much available in 2025, and I think he's really learned some things and worked with Cal on some things,

[00:12:54] and we saw that in the second half of last year. But sure, there's things he's going to work on. Could he waste more pitches or try to get guys to chase more by putting more pitches out of the zone a little bit, especially when he's ahead in counts? Sure. And maybe that does help him take another step forward. Maybe that does really elevate him to the level that we're talking about, where he could reach his full peak and full potential. I will say, though, while both of them need to work on it,

[00:13:21] overall, Wu's ability to not give up hard-hit baseballs is still much, much lower. Than Kirby's is. When you just look at barrel rate alone, I know in the strike zone it's similar, but barrel rate alone, it's a 50-point difference between Wu and Kirby. Yeah. So Wu does give up much less hard contact, as of right now, than Kirby does. But sure, inside the strike zone, Wu could waste a few more pitches.

[00:13:50] He could work outside the zone a little bit, especially with how ridiculous his stuff is. It's not like he'd have trouble getting chase. It'll be interesting if Pete Woodworth points to that with Wu, and we see more of that in 2025. And maybe we do just get a better answer and understanding of Brian Wu and George Kirby with another full season under their belt. Because in reality, as we talked about, we haven't seen Brian Wu pitch a lot. It is relatively, in career samples, small for him.

[00:14:19] So there's still a lot left to sort of unlock when we go into figuring out exactly what he is and what he can achieve. No doubt. But in terms of my guys to watch in the rotation in 2025, I said it last year, I'll say it again this year, he's at the top. All these guys are great to watch, but I set up just a little bit straighter every fifth night when it's Brian Wu on the mound. Yeah. Bryce Miller next.

[00:14:49] Is it just insanity what this guy's done? Man, we were sitting here a year ago talking about the potential for him to be a reliever. We spent so much of last offseason saying, will the Mariners trade for Blake Snell? Will they trade an arm to go get a bat? And then, or sorry, not trade for Blake Snell. Will they go sign Snell? Will they trade an arm for a bat? Or would they just go sign Snell and move Bryce Miller to the bullpen because he had a lot of things jump out in 2023 that said, is he going to stick as a starter long term?

[00:15:19] It was a real question. Ha! How stupid we all were for saying something like that because this guy had as unbelievable of a jump from year one to year two as you're going to find maybe across any pitcher in baseball. And his second half, just breathtaking. If you went back to us last year and we were previewing Bryce Miller and you said that what Bryce Miller fancies himself after is you, Darvish,

[00:15:49] when it comes to pitch mix, I don't know how we would have reacted, Lyle. Because at this time last year, it was a mostly uncertain pitch mix. We knew the fastball was there and we knew he had the breaking balls there. The breaking balls in thought were there. He had two pitches. That was it. He was using two pitches at the end of 2023. He had pitches he could throw, but they weren't good at that point last year. Well, now he has seven pitches.

[00:16:18] And it seems like he's open to adding more if they're available to him. I just don't know what else he really needs to unlock. I feel like he unlocked his, maybe not his best ever pitch mix last year, but in terms of a step forward in what you need to get lefties out and what you need to get righties out, with the addition of the cutter this year that he's been working on in spring, it's a little bit different than the one he featured last year,

[00:16:44] that he's got his pitches to both sides of the plate now. He can utilize his fastball without overthrowing it. He's now got multiple ways to get guys out. I mean, this guy, 99th percentile in pitching run value last year. When it came to preventing runs, he was in the 99th percentile. And his fastball was in the 100th. We talked about his fastball plenty when he came up. We talked about how dominant that pitch could be,

[00:17:14] and we saw it early on in some of those early starts he made when he got off to that red-hot start as a rookie. We saw that fastball really play up. We saw it in his opening debut against the A's. We saw it in Atlanta. I remember that start down in Atlanta where he was really good. But then guys started to hit it around a little bit, and guys made some adjustments. Man, did Bryce adjust in year two. You talk about his pitching run value, again, being 99th percentile.

[00:17:40] Fastball run value was 100th because guys could not hit it. It was that deadly. Opponents hit 184 against Bryce Miller's fastball last year. Didn't hit it. It was really, really tough to make contact with. And all that being said, it might not have even been his best pitch because good Lord was that splitter unreal. There was worry.

[00:18:06] I think much like with Brian Wu for Bryce Miller coming into this past year, would he be able to get lefties out? And then how would he pitch on the road? He still did have some road struggles this past season, especially in the first half. But he had a sub-two roadie array in the second half, which I think showed that step he took forward and maybe the realization of, excuse me, the adjustment of his pitch profile

[00:18:34] and what he needed to do to get out. He introduced his knuckle curve essentially at midseason last year and started throwing it more and more and more. It got up to over 10% in the latter months of the season last year. It's not a perfect correlation. I don't think that's the only reason that Bryce took the step forward in the second half last year, but it was this pitch he got the most swing and miss against.

[00:19:02] So when you combine that knuckle curve and you have the split as well and you have the dynamic fastball, you know what starts to open up those options for you? He's able to land some sinkers on the outside corner. He's now got the cutter that will go away towards the end of the barrel against righties and on lefties. All these things that I think are super effective for Bryce. There is a, I do have the question of how much regression we might see. I don't know. It, let's, let me lay the context this way.

[00:19:31] So Ty Dan Gonzalez, whose podcast, Locked On Mariners podcast, we were on when we're recording today on Thursday. So it came out yesterday. He was on our podcast a few weeks ago and he said he thinks Bryce is going to finish top 10 in the AL Cy Young voting this year. And he's going to establish himself as one of the best starters in baseball. I'm all for the optimism. I'm so high on Bryce. I think he's incredibly smart. I think he knows what he's doing. But the, the under the hood numbers would lean regression over

[00:20:01] regression over progression for Bryce Miller. Be curious what you think about that. So either like either the results change on the field or if he gets similar results off the bat this upcoming season, the numbers will creep back a little bit. What do you think of that? We said the same thing last year and then he put that all in the rear view mirror because his underlying numbers were not good as a rookie. Well, his underlying numbers still aren't great.

[00:20:30] Like if you, if you just look at it, doesn't get a lot of ground balls. Hard hit rate is almost in the bottom quarter. Barrel rate is 14th percentile. He doesn't get a ton of whiff, even less chase. Average exit velocity is in the 14th percentile. We see the results are great. I'm, I'm, I'm not disputing that, but those are numbers. Those are real numbers. Could be skewed a little bit by his first half. Baseball savant doesn't let you divvy up quite as much.

[00:21:00] First half, second half, when it comes to the, their nice little bubbles, they put on all the player pages, but those are real numbers. Although again, it didn't lead to regression in year two. For example, his barrel rate was in the ninth percentile in 2023. It was in the 14th percentile in 2024, but he just got that much better. Now I'm not saying that you don't want to see him limit hard contact. Of course you do. Of course you want to see Bryce get a few more ground balls and not see as many baseballs squared up.

[00:21:30] Sure. But it didn't affect him in year two, even though the underlying stuff was similar to year one. Now, could that mean regression back to something closer to what he did in 2023 this year? I guess it's possible, but there's just too many things he did well last year to make me think he's really going to take some huge dip and step backwards. Again, the fact guys weren't having any success against this fastball. They had no success against the splitter. Lefties were totally neutralized.

[00:22:00] Another guy, by the way, who gave up a 900 OPS against lefties as a rookie, 600 in year two. Pretty good. 300 points as a jump down. So could there be a little bit of regression? Sure. I'm not going to sit here and promise you Bryce is going to have a two 90 RA again, but do I think he's going to have some year with a four or five? No, no way. I'm not saying he's going to suck. And I will note Logan Gilbert had similar issues with hard contact early in his career that we highlighted a ton.

[00:22:28] And if you look at Logan Gilbert this year, his barrel rate was in the 61st percentile. That's good. Right. That was a barrel rate. I believe for Logan Gilbert early in his career, which is what's in the bottom 10%. Like it's possible. And those two are similar tinkers messing with pitch shapes, never satisfied. Just saying, if you look at the overall results profile from batted ball data, it's like 50th percentile. And he got 99th percentile outcome. There's a little gap.

[00:23:00] Yeah. Yeah. Well, we'll see how he adjusts in year three. We can look at the data, but we're going to have to see it and kind of just see how everything plays out. And this cutter, I think has a chance to make a real impact. It, the, his cutter last year through a tiny bit, I think it was like barely a foot of cut to it. And he threw it 92. Now the cutters up to 93, it spins more and it cuts three feet instead of, or sorry, three inches, not three feet, three inches instead of, I think 0.3 inches. So that's like, it's noticeable.

[00:23:29] You've seen it. He's tweeted, he's tweeted it out, put it on his Instagram. It's a real pitch. And that goes, just remember the opposite direction of his sinker goes the opposite, opposite direction of his split finger. So it's just a nice little touch there for Bryce. Definitely. And could replace his sweeper, which was not good. Sure. I mean, he's already got seven pitches. Heaven forbid. He has either one less or the same amount. And he doesn't have 10 that he's throwing in 2025, which who throws 10 pitches? I guess Shohei. That's about it.

[00:23:59] Shohei and Darvish. Right. Yeah. That's about it. Like what, how do you get to 11? I don't know. So Bryce is seven. What four more could he add? Let's see. Sure. Yeah. So slurve. That's one. Although again, the fact that. Change up. Yeah. That's nine. But he only has a curveball and a slider.

[00:24:28] Would he really throw a slurve? It's a different pitch. Technically. Technically, but he only has a sweeper, a slider and a curveball. I don't know. Hey, we're in the, we're in the business of adding pitches, not, not clarifying things. Okay. So a slurve, a change up. Could you call Dice K and ask him how to throw a gyro ball? I guess. There's no, there's 10. What's the 11th? Yeah. We'd need an 11th pitch. We could brainstorm that 11 pitches,

[00:24:58] a screw ball, which isn't thrown anymore. And it's only usually thrown by lefties. Yeah. We missed out on our opportunity at opportunity to ask Bryce. So yeah, maybe we'll have to ask him during the year. Does Darvish differentiate his two seamer and a sinker? I don't think so. It's a, it's essentially the same pitch. I know, but again, we're, we're in the business of adding pitches, not technicalities. I don't even know if Savant registers to seem fastballs. I usually just call them sinkers. Hmm. Well,

[00:25:28] then that's our answer. I think 10 pitches. Then we max out for Bryce. All right. Well, there you go. Who's next? Speaking of someone with a lot of pitches, George Kirby has a lot of pitches and Oh, we forgot an obvious pitch. Bryce can throw a knuckleball. He would do that. Yeah, he would do that. Has any joked about that? I swear. He's joked about that. I'm sure. But someone who actually throws knuckleballs in games is George Kirby. He doesn't have a problem with that pitch.

[00:25:58] No. When we talk, we talked about in the Brian Wu segment, perception of season, George Kirby, despite maybe a perception for myself, had a really darn good season last year. He was really, really good. Still a three, five year in 191 innings. He was 87th percentile pitching run value, 95th percentile with his fastball. Overall net had a very good season.

[00:26:28] What stood out to me the most Lyle is that his season almost perfectly mirrored his 2023 season. And that's why I feel like people sort of brush over what George Kirby did last year. Can I read you off a couple of his counting stats between the two years? In 2023, he had a 3-3-5 ERA. In 2024, he had a 3-5-3 ERA. So literally just switching numbers around with that. Started 31 games in 2023, 33 games in 2024. Innings wise,

[00:26:56] 190 and two-thirds in 2023. 191 innings in 2024. He allowed 179 hits in 2023. He allowed 181 hits in 2024. He allowed 22 home runs in each of those two seasons. He struck out 172 batters in 2023. He struck out 179 batters in 2024. It's almost mirrored. Paired with the fact he had nearly identical F-4s, which is so funny.

[00:27:26] I think most people look at George Kirby's year last year and say, there's a lot to build on. And there is, but you're still talking about a guy who had another four-war season. That's not light work. That's an all-star level pitcher. Four-war season. He led the team in pitching war. More than Logan. More than Bryce. Right? It flies under the radar a little bit. And, by the way, per Zips, the series projected to lead the Mariners in war, pitching war again. That might change a little bit,

[00:27:55] because I don't think Zips accounted for his injury. But, that's a real thing. I just think when people don't see the Bryce Miller jump, the Logan Gilbert jump, there's a different, you look at it in a different light. Right? Because, like, Logan, as good as he was in 2023, took just another enormous step forward. George Kirby had the pleasure of being really good in his sophomore season, but then essentially just repeating it. And people want to see progress,

[00:28:25] not stagnation. Because, if you're stagnant, I mean, if you're stagnant in George Kirby, you're still going to end up being a very good pitcher. You're going to have a long career. You're going to make a ton of money. But, people would still be left saying, like, what if? I mean, this was the first guy in this rotation people looked at, dead in the eyes, that the Mariners, pitchers that the Mariners had developed, not Luis Castillo, and said, yeah, he's winning a Cy Young. He was the first one. This was before Logan, before Bryce, before Brian. It was George Kirby. He's winning a Cy Young. Well,

[00:28:55] you mean, first guy with that type of upside. Logan got up first, obviously, but... Because Logan was closest to winning a Cy Young this past season in 2024, but in terms of... No, I just mean, I just mean guys that got to the big leagues in chronological order. Logan was the first one up to the show. He was the first one up to the show, and he has had the best season of everybody, right? But you remember, you remember the discourse around Gilbert versus the discourse around Kirby, where people watch Kirby and how hard he throws

[00:29:24] and the amount of strikes he throws and say, yeah, this dude's going to one day be the best pitcher in baseball. Mm-hmm. I don't think people have said that about Logan Gilbert at all. Right. So when you get that label, and then you don't achieve that label, and you're essentially stagnant for a season, then fair or not, there might be some people who just kind of shrug their shoulders at your season last year. And this could be the year he takes that big jump, what we're alluding to. We had Goldie on last week. That's essentially what he said.

[00:29:55] Year four was when Logan took his big jump. Last year. When you really saw him just elevate to another level. This is going to be George Kirby's year four. Why can't he have that jump this year? There's no reason he can't. Again, upside wise, I know I made the argument for Wu. It is probably still Kirby because when you throw 100 miles an hour and also have arguably the best command in Major League Baseball, that is a recipe that most people don't have.

[00:30:24] We called that Jacob deGrom when he got up. Essentially, nobody else throws 100 with pinpoint command. Now, Kirby's issue is he just, he still really needs another out pitch. Not to say he doesn't have good pitches. In fact, he had two pitches last year that were great. Sinker, Slider, were both awesome last year. Both of them had run values of 10 or higher. Both of them were incredibly effective. Honestly, I think for him,

[00:30:52] it is specifically what he does with his fastball. His fastball has been his best pitch each of his first two seasons, 22 and 23. Last year, it was still good, but it took a step down and that's where you started to see some of the discourse around Kirby about when he is too much in the zone, he gets hit very hard. I think that fastball specifically was just a little too much in the zone and you would see damage get done against it. With Kirby having the two pitches that he now has in his back pocket

[00:31:22] that have been proven to be really, really good with the two-seamer, aka the sinker, and then his slider, if he throws those two pitches and then gets his fastball back to where it was in 22 or even 23, that's when we're talking about a Cy Young level type pitcher because that's three dominant pitches that you have in your back pocket that do not get hit. And finding more effectiveness with his split, I think, is another thing. There's some pretty staunch drop-off numbers when you look at his splitter

[00:31:50] between 23 and 24. His splitter had a 36% swing and miss rate in 2023, 41% strikeout rate. Those dropped to 29% and 25% respectively in 2024. That's a pretty decent drop-off. I think that's a bigger drop-off than he had with any of his other pitches and I think that was reflective in the run value as well. For someone like Kirby, his fastball is going to be his bread and butter because he can pinpoint it everywhere and he throws it incredibly hard. It's going to be the same story with the sinker as well.

[00:32:19] But he is having a pitch to help get lefties out I think would be important because if you look at his pitches that are effective right now, the sinker would be good against lefties because it goes away from him. But his foreseam, it's like that one's kind of neutral and a slider goes in on lefties so it's not quite as effective as it is on right-handers. If he has that split and it fades a little bit arm side or goes straight down, that's a better balance pitch against lefties and in turn, that was a pitch that sort of turned on him results-wise a little bit

[00:32:49] this past season. I think it's because he's throwing it in the strike zone a little bit too much. I was trying to read into the heat maps. Those baseball savant heat maps are a little confusing sometimes. But I think that's the general idea of finding a pitch to get a little bit more swing and miss out of the strike zone. Because that's Kirby's forever chase. That splitter he had two years ago in 23 was the first pitch he had as a big leaguer where it was like this is a true strikeout pitch. And then it regressed more back in line with his other pitches this past year.

[00:33:19] Yeah, and let's be clear. That sinker and the slider he throws are really, really good pitches. That's what we were just highlighting. It's just that if he threw it even a little bit better against lefties and we're really nitpicking here. Because again, we're talking about run values of 10 or higher with those two offerings. Something that not a lot of guys can say to their name that they have two different pitches with run values that high. But it's just that it can be even better if he starts to throw him a little better to lefties like you're talking about. And then yes,

[00:33:50] what he does with the four-seam fastball. You know what I think the toughest part about this is? If we're going to get away from the numbers here for a second and a little bit less of a nitty-gritty part of it, you're going to have to get George to buy into throwing pitches outside of the strike zone. Because there is a mental side to this with him. He hates throwing balls. Hates it. Every pitcher doesn't like it. But he despises it. He despises walking hitters. So, how does Pete Woodworth and Trent Blank

[00:34:19] and that pitching group get Kirby to buy in on, hey, it's going to help you if you just throw a few more pitches outside the zone? You are going to have to get him to buy into that mentally because it's just been who he is his whole career. He throws strikes and he doesn't like to throw it outside the zone. I'd say lucky for him, he has a pretty great example in his own rotation in Logan Gilbert who doesn't walk guys but throws enough pitches out of the strike zone to get a sizable amount more strikeouts than Kirby does

[00:34:49] and gets a sizable amount more of swing and miss. Right. And that is Kirby's big thing. Along with pitching a little better on the road because that was a struggle for him last year. He did have some home road splits that were a little bit drastic but overall he's got to miss more bats. If he starts to miss more bats that's when you see him take the jump to being truly an elite starter in Major League Baseball. He's already very, very good and in the top 15 to 20 we'll call it but if he starts

[00:35:19] missing bats that's where you could see him get into the top 3 to 5. And that's why we're nitpicking here because he can be that and everybody knows he can be that. Not to say that if he remains a top 15 pitcher in baseball it's some massive disappointment and it's not. That's unbelievably valuable and he is one of the game's best but he can take a step from being a guy that's an all-star level pitcher to a Cy Young level pitcher if he just misses a few more bats.

[00:35:49] The home road thing will be is a thing with all four of these pitchers except for Brian Wu. Brian Wu was fine home and road as Lyle mentioned this year. Not even fine he was really good. His home area was 2-4-5 and his road ERA was 3-2. Right. The other four though it will always be a storyline until they prove it wrong it will always be a storyline for these four guys. Let's go to the vet of the group Luis Castillo feels like Castillo's the only one where we don't really

[00:36:18] have to nitpick because there were some things he definitely struggled with last year that the Mariners are going to be searching for answers this upcoming season and he's the guy first of all to start he makes the money in the rotation he's by far the most expensive of any of the guys in this rotation he's the vet he's the most proven he's got the most innings under his belt so therefore there's an expectation that comes along with that for Luis Castillo and the Mariners anticipate we're paying you $24 million you had a career

[00:36:48] worse season last year we want you to take that step going back towards what we know Luis Castillo can be we see these pitchers in their 30s continue to have fantastic years and we want you Luis Castillo to do the same so what do you make of what Luis Castillo has to do this upcoming season I think the big storyline with him is pretty simple last two years he's just given up way way way too much hard contact and last year we really saw it

[00:37:17] take the toll on him that led to his by F war worst year since 2018 there was just way too many hard hit balls lefties specifically absolutely pulverized them last year and that hasn't been a thing throughout Luis's career for the most part Luis's splits are normal enough versus lefties and righties throughout his time in the big leagues but 2023 it started to get a little bit skewed you started to see lefties hit him a sizably amount

[00:37:47] better than righties lefties hit lefties put up about an 800 OPS against him in 2023 I think it was a little under that but right in that range then last year it was 846 against righties this is almost the polar opposite of Mitch Garver in the sense of what Garver did at the plate he had no problems against lefties where he ran into problems and why his year got derailed is because all the issues he had against righties Luis Castillo gave up a 576 OPS against right-handed batters

[00:38:17] last year by all accounts that is awesome it's lefties putting up an 850 OPS and absolutely barreling him up left and right where you run into problems highlighted a lot of good issues there I want to see the inning count go back up only 175 innings for Luis Castillo this last year it did help it didn't didn't help he got injured at the end of the year I was gonna say if he doesn't get injured with that fluky

[00:38:46] hamstring thing it's probably 190 but his per inning start was also lower this past season than it was in any of the previous seasons like that it's a real thing for Castillo he's gonna want to bump that back up the swing and miss is it's very important very important at this point in his career I want to I want to sort of highlight something and contextualize when someone looks at what Castillo's season was like last year you see a 364 ERA you say that's pretty good

[00:39:16] ERA plus it's kind of like WRC plus except it's for ERA it's park adjusted air adjusted Luis Castillo had a 101 ERA plus last year that means park adjusted he was 1% better at preventing runs than the average pitcher was last year can I contextualize that with something here really fast so he was 1% above league average is what we're spelling out here yeah we sat down with Logan Evans in our episode that just came out on Wednesday which by the way if you have not

[00:39:46] checked that out it was awesome go do it speaking of starting pitchers he is somebody we will almost definitely see in the big leagues starting games in 2025 at some point and he said that the metrics told him he was 1-2% above league average as a big league starter already his numbers spit out that he was about a 101 102 maybe it was stuff plus they used but point being like it was either stuff plus or ERA plus point being

[00:40:17] that's right in the same range as what you're describing right now with Luis Castillo what Logan Evans pitching coaches told him down in double A what Matt Pierpont and Michael Peoples told him who have now unfortunately left the organization because they're really good at their jobs and got hired away elsewhere they told him you're essentially an average big league starter right now at 22 years old in double A that's essentially saying Logan Evans and Luis Castillo are by that metric the same starter and you've got Logan Evans

[00:40:46] who's a 12th rounder and got you know chump change as a signing bonus where Luis Castillo's making 24 million a year yeah that's that's got to change so you can look at that in a glass half full or glass half empty however you would like to oh glass half full is Logan Evans was awesome in double A last year glass half empty is Luis Castillo has got to be better than that he's making 24 million dollars and the Mariners were shopping that 24 million dollars around you know this offseason they were listening in on more stuff for Luis Castillo than they were I would imagine on their other

[00:41:16] starters because of that money and because of the season he came off of if he was like his 2022 self last year I don't think he's on the block I think they're like oh we're just we're running this pack we're to go win the division with this guy but he wasn't you know he wasn't that way mostly comes back to his changeup for the life of me I can't understand what has happened to that pitch since he's gotten to Seattle

[00:41:45] we've highlighted it every off season now since he's been here and it is baffling to me I'm not saying it has to be the same pitch that it once was in Cincinnati but we've gotten to the point with Luis Castillo's changeup where I'm questioning if he should even be throwing it because it is so ineffective at this point I don't get how you can just flip a switch and everything changes from highest of highs to essentially lowest of lows now his fastball has gone the

[00:42:15] other way fastball didn't used to be a great pitch now it is but I don't understand how the changeup just goes like that mix location command of it I mean there's a lot of very important factors you're right the game has also changed I think a little bit since then it's a different park he's pitching in there's I'd say a decent amount of factors for him I don't know if I'd be for him stop throwing it he does need pitches against lefties which he again struggled against if you take that pitch away what

[00:42:45] replaces it against lefties because then essentially he would have two fastballs against lefties because he wouldn't throw a slider quite as much against lefties right because it goes into lefties I see what you're right it's not as effective a pitch against lefties what would he do against that but would you rather just have him throw the three pitches and roll with it or would you rather have that change up just continue getting destroyed I'd rather him

[00:43:14] throw it with better command that would be here this change up which again was an elite pitch not just for Luis Castillo but was considered an elite pitch in baseball for a long time I slugged 545 against it yeah it really got hit

[00:43:44] incredibly hard the year before while the slug number was a little down the run value of it was worse it is it has he down since they acquired him a mile and a half I hope

[00:44:14] so because he needs that VLO it's part of who he is you saw what happened when it took the dip last year guys were more on time with was a better pitch than what it was in the last

[00:44:45] him being able to go 6 and 2 every night which is essentially what he did last year there is value to that you are always in the game you know what you're going to get he's an established vet he you need Luis to be in that boat with those guys he can't be going the other way he has got to be the guy that they paid him to be because look

[00:45:14] that contract which by the way is pretty team friendly and there's no gripes with it in any way but you need him to live up to it he's not that old he can absolutely still pitch the way they're expecting him to pitch but he's got to have swing back in his favor here in 2025 so again to be able to go six and two every night does have value and that's very old school to just say he's a bit of an in in the game it's all valuable but he didn't have as many starts

[00:45:44] as he's had in years past where you look at the box score at the end of the night and you look up when he exits after seven he's given up two hits and he struck out eight and it was one first is that no trade

[00:46:14] clause expires so I'm sure he understands it as he's going to pitch this season with the Mariners in terms of his value and where he might he the only thing I could come up

[00:46:44] with Logan Gilbert is the only thing left for him to do is win a side out you kind of took the words right out of my mouth that's why that

[00:47:13] and do it again like just do it again if you want to really pinpoint some things and nitpick some things we can another guy that could throw a little bit better on the road which we've talked about and that's going to be a storyline he also didn't have as great a second half as he did first half his ERA in the second half was four compared to the two five in the first half so if you want to say I'd like to see Logan sustain a little bit more of what he did in

[00:48:04] weaknesses and he's gotten to the point where he's worked on so many things and gotten so good there's just not many weaknesses you're talking about four great pitches that he has he throws more than that but he's got four really great pitches doesn't walk guys get strikeouts gets chase is an innings eater he threw over 200 innings last year you know what I wrote on the last line here why the hell have the Mariner is not giving him the money he's worth yet that's what I question

[00:48:34] like if there's one guy in this rotation to be extended at least right now I don't even think it's close it should be Logan Gilbert because not only does he feel like he's the most sustainable but he just continues to get better and better and better he he's a goddamn workhorse is what he is it's that's an

[00:49:28] funny he's got the sinker that he can throw at the front hip of lefties now that will come back in on the inside corner or outside to righties he's got the splitter against lefties which is one of the best pitches in baseball that fades away to lefties notice this is what we were talking about with Joe Doyle earlier Logan lowered his arm angle a little bit this year and he says

[00:49:57] that really helps splitters get a little bit more horizontal action Logan Gilbert splitter has some decent horizontal action to it as it fades away from a lefty hitter oh by the way he's got a slider the pitch he now throws oh shit

[00:50:28] yeah I'm toast is what they're essentially thinking it's funny I always circle back to what Terry Francona said after his first start in his debut in that game against the Guardians where it wasn't his best outing the Guardians hit him around a little bit pretty much expected for a guy making a debut but Terry Francona after that game despite Logan only going a few innings he said man I get why they like that dude he said he is right on

[00:50:58] top of you he's got big stuff it's it's tough to pick up is what he talked about and you know I'd say Terry Francona knows a little bit of baseball because fast forward four years later shocker one of the best managers ever was right as rain about Logan Gilbert this dude he was probably a few homers given up away from being front runner to Cy Young with Tarek school like the difference between those two really was school school gets some more ground balls and subsequently

[00:51:28] gives up less home runs Gilbert gave up 26 school gave up 15 that's the difference right there like Gilbert gives up some to find ways to turn into a sinker ball or what matters the most sure and again all

[00:51:58] that combined for that reason he still finished sixth in Cy Young voting last year so still really really really good I I'm fascinated to see if he can take yet another jump this year I certainly wouldn't put it past him because he never settles let me reread the list 120 innings thrown whip of under 0.9 yes 0.9 or lower

[00:52:28] just let that set in the names of Logan Gilbert and Brian Wu with Clayton Kershaw Sandy Koufax and Satchel Page I'm doing the Jordan shrug here yeah pretty good what else is there to say not much else other than pay that man pay the pay the man please yeah what does big poppy do on those box postgame shows during the playoffs when somebody's a pending free agent pay the man pay the man he starts dumping out the suitcase of fake money and all that

[00:52:58] that's what I have to say about Logan Gilbert yes please please looking forward to it yes or no question is he starting on opening day the closer we trend to it the more I'm leaning to it yes I agree with you I think I feel like Castillo's odds were way better early but the later it gets I think Logan's odds get better again not that it's going to make some huge difference but Castillo already did get paid if you want to just try to show

[00:53:28] Logan as an organization hey this is what we think of you it's just one nice little extra thing to show them and say hey you're starting opening day you're our ace again it's all now that's not going to be a reason for Logan to say oh they let me start on opening day well let me actually take a five million dollar pay cut a year to stay with the Mariners no that's that's not what I'm saying you gotta pay him his money that he's worth but it's still a nice gesture and if you math it

[00:54:18] sorry we're not gonna get into that my bad I almost made it yeah and we previewed the offense you had your chance I did but we were just talking

[00:54:48] but see it's not about it's not about the players on the roster which is again we've beaten this into the ground it's not about them it's everything that's not here that's what it is yes yeah anyway hell of a rotation I can't wait to watch him and we'll see some other guys throughout the year like Emerson's obviously gonna start in the rotation to begin the year with Kirby's injury he probably won't make that many starts because I don't think Kirby's gonna be out that long but we will probably see him we will probably see

[00:55:18] Logan Evans at some point we'll see who else they mix into that rotation throughout the year but it's a good group of arms it really is and we should be pretty fortunate I can't wait all right that just about that wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast you can do so wherever you get your audio pods make sure to download you guys make

[00:55:56] sure to rate don't miss any of that go over there and get involved and you can follow us everywhere on social media Instagram TikTok Twitter YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod that's TJ I'm Lyle as always we thank you guys for tuning in we'll talk to you