Episode 219: Did A Possible In-Season Acquisition Of Coby Mayo Open Up? + Bullpen Preview

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 219 of the Marine Layer Podcast. It's our bullpen preview. We'll take a look at the Mariners relievers and preview their 2025 season. Lyle's man crush Kobe Mayo also had some things to say this week. We'll get Lyle's take on it and if his odds of coming to the Mariners sometime this season have increased. Your guys' reminder before we start this show, do us a favor and download these episodes if you're listening. It does help us out a lot if you rate and review, so go leave that 5-star review. We love to see the Apple reviews going up.

[00:00:30] If you're on YouTube, make sure to like, comment, please hit that subscribe button as well. We know it's right in front of you guys. It just takes a second to do. Go check out our Patreon where we're going to be rolling out a bunch of new fun stuff over there. We'd love to get involved more with you guys and interact more with you guys. And then also be sure to follow us on social media everywhere at Marine Layer Pod. Let's get it rolling.

[00:01:03] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording on Thursday evening, March 20th, the final Friday episode before opening day. Yay! Woo! Yeah. Wow, you sounded very excited. And I think actually there might be a reason for that. We always like to say, Lyle, that we're transparent with our listeners and, you know, let them in on our thoughts a little bit.

[00:01:32] So I thought I'd be transparent at the beginning of this episode. I feel like some people wonder what goes into the production of a podcast episode. How do you guys come up with all these topics? You know, a lot of the time we will come up with ideas together. But today, here to kick off this episode, I want to give all the credit in the world to Mr. Lyle Goldstein. Because before the show, at exactly 4.23 p.m., Lyle texts me and says,

[00:02:02] I need to do a couple airing of grievances early in the show. LOL. For whatever reason, I woke up just pissed the fuck off this morning. Lyle, what's up, buddy? What do you need to get off your chest? You know, I'm glad you feel differently than me on this. Because for whatever reason, I want to say this in the right way. Let me preface this. Let me preface this. Deep breath.

[00:02:32] Deep breath so we can control our thoughts. The Mariners can obviously still be a very good team this year. And maybe a very good team. However, I don't know how much I'm really looking forward to opening day and the season starting. Really? Because it's funny. I'm pumped for next week. Well, I'm glad. And I hope I get there.

[00:02:56] But man, there is something about the clock now being down to a week before this season starts up again. And sadly, I've started to have a lot of flashbacks to the end of last year in the second half where all I could do was just every night I was pissed off watching games. And sadly, like, that's what we're about to get back to potentially if the team does not improve.

[00:03:23] That the train wreck that we watched last year has the potential to get back on the tracks here. And again, all these thoughts are starting to circulate through my head again about how mad I was through July and August and basically emotionless in September after everything had been taken out of me at that point. And I'm worried that we're going to get back to that.

[00:03:44] So that's where I'm that's where I'm waking up pissed off is starting to essentially emotionally prepare myself for yes, what could be a good year. I'm not saying it won't be, but what could also be a tough year. You're at worst case scenario on March 20th. I didn't say that. That's what it sounds like. So have you seen me during the year? You know, it can get worse than this.

[00:04:12] I don't mean what is actually coming out of your mouth right now, but your train of thought is worst case scenario because you're picking three bad months. Well, they missed the playoffs last year, but they did. And the year before that and the 21 years before 2022. So I know I know. But I don't get the thought process right now of arriving at the worst case scenario.

[00:04:39] So yeah, now, especially because while the first three months were, you know, they're pretty good. Now's another half of the half of the season. Were they really good or were they fluky because they did not hit? Yes, both. Okay, probably as a combination. Again, if I could control my emotions, I control my emotions. And if I could control my emotions, I would never have gone on one single rant where I'm yelling on this podcast ever or in life. Unfortunately, that's not how brains work.

[00:05:09] I woke up this morning and instead of saying it's a week before opening day, I said it's a week before opening day. I just don't. I'm sorry. I don't get it. I don't. I mean, there's a couple other pieces to this, too. Again, part of it is the hot flashes I'm starting to get of last year. You know, the second half of last year was not fun. It sucked. But, dude, there's a new coaching staff now. There's a bunch of new players, too, right?

[00:05:41] That was a good one. No, there's not. A lot of the same players. Anyway, there's that part of it. And then, like, that's just the true emotional side of trying to prepare yourself for baseball season. And maybe this is me taking a new approach, too. Just like the Mariners are taking a new approach with the coaching staff. Because, genuinely, every year of my entire life, and I'm not making this up, I'm fired up beyond belief for opening day.

[00:06:08] But this is part of the reason I'm not only waking up pissed off, but honestly waking up a little afraid. Which is, what's happening to my fandom here? Because this is legitimately the first year where I'm essentially putting a real, real guard up in front of the season starting. Like, have I just been burned too many times? I think they've broke you. Dude, it's... I'm telling you... I think they've gotten to you. The second half of last year...

[00:06:35] I think the Mariners are, like... You've talked about this. The Mariners are rent-free in there. Oh, they're so rent-free! And it might be getting worse. The real estate is expanding. I'm telling you, the second half of last year was, like, something I've never experienced. I mean, again, it was bad. I just... I don't know if I can get this down before a single pitch has been thrown. I'm not... Okay, again, you're twisting my words. I'm not down.

[00:07:05] You said you were pissed! I am! I am pissed. I'm not down. I'm just putting a... You are down! I'm trying to put a guard up here, Teej. I'm trying to put a guard up. The wording you use makes it sound like you're down. Well, again, let me start with this again. The Mariners could still absolutely have a good year.

[00:07:27] Is there a world this team in the American League wins 95 games with just kind of not everybody having a down year and the rest of the American League not being as good this year? Yes. But I also know there's another world to this. So I hope they start winning games early because my mind can then get away from this and just back to true baseball and talking about hopefully them winning. Winning games early like last year?

[00:07:55] I would hope the offense does a little bit more than that, but yes. Yes. I agree. To be fair, I was up last year when they were winning. I was in a good mood. June was fun! And even in like April and May. But... Kind of came crashing down. Alright. Point number two. Because that's all the emotional side of it. This really added fuel to the fire today.

[00:08:17] Because again, there was nothing really specific that I could just point to other than, again, last season for why I woke up getting a little bit nervous about opening day. It was almost just one of those things where... What do they call it? They call it feeling ho-hum or out of sorts and you can't really put a finger on why you're feeling the way you're feeling. That's how I woke up this morning. I can put a feeling and an exact reasoning behind this. So, Shannon was on Brock and Salt here on Thursday.

[00:08:44] Shannon Dreher, Mariners insider for Seattle Sports, who does an awesome job, by the way. She's great. She went on. She comes on the shows pretty regularly during the year to talk baseball and especially as spring training starts to wind down. She was on the morning show today. One of the things she talked about that she believes is going to happen is the Mariners may be preparing to let Luke Raley play every day. And that includes Luke Raley going up against left-handed pitching.

[00:09:14] And I hear that and that adds fuel to the fire because, look, I'm not the coaching staff. I'm not in that building. I don't have every single point of information. But from what I know, and I'd like to think the two of us know ball pretty well, I think that's a mistake. And that might be putting it lightly. There's two ways to think about this. So, I do think Luke Raley, for the most part, is a platoon player.

[00:09:42] Here's what we do know for a fact. He's really good hitting against righties. Strikes out a lot, but he hits the ball really hard. It hits it over the fence a lot. That we know. For, I guess, some context, though, if we're going to slightly defend it, it only has been, for Luke Raley, like 125 total at-bats or plate appearances, sorry, against lefties the last two years. Out of, what, 1,400?

[00:10:09] If you're going to extrapolate it for a full season, 700 plate appearances, that's 1,400 across the two seasons. That's less than 10% of the time. And, just to say something like, for certain that he can't do it. Like, what would you qualify as can? Like, I would qualify can't Lyles if he just repeats the small sample non-success he had last year. When he had a, I think it was 70 WRC plus against lefties last year.

[00:10:38] What if it was like 95? What if it was 95? That's below average, but it's not killing his stat line. That would be fine. Okay. However, however, why have two separate organizations not let Luke Raley hit left-handed pitching if he was so good at hitting left-handed pitching?

[00:11:00] Because the, to answer your question, the coaching staff looks at the roster they have that the baseball operations department gave them and said, Well, I think this is our best course of action. How? How? So, okay, so who plays it first instead? It can be whoever else. It can be Rowdy. It can be Rowdy. It can be Solano. Against lefties? So, okay, so it's Solano. Solano's supposed to be hitting lefties. He shouldn't. Yeah.

[00:11:29] He's good against lefties. That's, like, that's why they brought him in. It's not an everyday player, and he's definitely, he's not really a first baseman. And Shannon, by the way, in that same interview said, doesn't feel like Donovan's going to be playing much first base. You say Donovan Solano's not a first baseman. Luke Raley's not a first baseman. This is where some of this anger is getting driven from. Luke Raley had this great season last year, right? He hit righties incredibly well. He played good outfield defense.

[00:11:58] If he had to mix in at first a bit, he can, and he did more toward the end of the year. But I'm sorry, Luke Raley is not a first baseman, and he didn't look comfortable at first base a lot of the year. So do I know this is definitively what the Mariners are going to do just off Shannon doing one interview? No, I don't. But to hear that the Mariners are essentially looking at what Raley did last year, had this awesome year, and are doing all these things that has the potential to just tank his value, I can't get behind because he's not going to be playing the outfield enough, and he's not going to be hitting righties, like, primarily.

[00:12:27] Where's your anger directed at right now? Which group is he going towards? Surprisingly, not the usual suspects here. Well, everything goes back to the usual suspects. However, if the coaching staff goes through with this and just continuously runs out Luke Raley against left-handed pitching, yeah, it would be at them because there's no track record to say Luke can hit lefties, and that would be their decision to operate the roster that way, which I don't think makes any sense at all.

[00:12:56] Well, maybe they also think that, well, we can't really play Jorge Polanco at 30. He's not good enough defensively. Solano needs to go over there and play, and now you have two, essentially, if we're counting Raley as a first baseman, you have two lefty first basemen on the roster. What do you do? So where does Polanco play if he's not playing 30? He DHs. Oh, good. So you leave Randy in the outfield. Correct. Again, that's where I asked you where, like, the anger goes, because the coaching staff gets a group of 26 players to manage, and they got to do their best with it.

[00:13:26] Well, okay, Tiege, we all know good and damn well where my anger goes, but we're not going to re-hatch all that. That's what I'm trying to get out of you right now. We all know where the anger goes. Because as you see, as we talk this out here, like, it's like, well, like, these are the guys we got. Again, you know where it goes, but it doesn't do a service for anybody listening to this podcast to just keep rehashing that all the time, especially with a week to go before the year. If anybody's listening to this podcast, you know where the anger is.

[00:13:54] Luke Raley, playing against lefties, I think, in thought, and based off of the results we have, which is how we operate on this podcast. We look at results, and we try and, you know, understand what the future could look like. Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're wrong. If you use that rationale, Luke Raley playing at first base is a mistake. Definitely. But they could also try it, well, for three weeks, and then be like, oh, yeah, he looks really overmatched. Let's not play him against lefties. And then the problem goes away.

[00:14:23] But that line of thinking is, it's almost a smaller microcosm of the problems that the team's had over the last couple years. When they've gotten off to slow starts, some people say, well, whatever, it's just April, they'll turn it around, and then they miss the playoffs by one game. Messing around with Luke Raley hitting left-handed pitching for three weeks could be, I'm not saying it will be, but could be the difference between playoffs and not. And it's a, I would say,

[00:14:50] definitely a contrast in the messaging from what Dan Wilson says, where they're trying to emphasize how much every single game matters. Right. In this context. Can I just read everybody something here? Because what Shannon said of that interview, too, which, if you haven't listened to it, you should go listen, Shannon was on Brock and Salk on Thursday. It was a really good interview, gave a bunch of good information. An hour? It was hour two. Two? Okay. It was at 7.30 Pacific time. Okay. So, yeah. It was a good interview. Anyway, she also mentions in there how

[00:15:20] they saw who he was toward the end of last year and how well he hit and wondered if that was enough to say we should try him as an everyday player early in the year. I don't know what sample size they're looking at because, again, Luke Raley as an overall player was really good last year and especially toward the end. That was mostly against right-handed pitching because from August 15th till the end of the year, given a very small sample size when he was hitting lefties, 45. 45.

[00:15:50] WRC+. What about that screams he should be hitting left-handed pitching when he has not done it basically at all in his career? It falls in line, Lyle, I think with a lot of how the rest of this roster is. It's like, it's like playing Jorge Blanco as your third baseman. It's the same thing. It's the exact same line of thought. The exact same. Hasn't done it, yet we're expecting him to do it this season. Although, I do wonder how long it takes

[00:16:20] Ben Williamson to get up this year. Right. Exactly. As you said, right, and it's the same thing I mentioned earlier with Raley. They see it for three weeks and say, uh, never mind. Just like looking at Jorge Blanco at third base and saying, yeah, we need Ben Williamson. So staying on the show today on Brock and Salk, Salk's take on this was as long as Ben Williamson does not look totally overmatched in the minor leagues as a hitter, he's going to be up pretty quick because he's not a mega prospect who you have to rush along with the fact

[00:16:50] that his defense is so good that he can essentially be Josh Rojas over there, which again, Josh Rojas didn't hit last year, but that's a two win third baseman just off his glove. How does it, how do we think the rest of the roster moves around if you move up Ben Williamson? Are we, are they sending bliss back down? It's tough to say exactly, but then Polanco probably goes back to second and Demo goes back to being a utility guy. it's probably better than third. He's played it. He has, not very well.

[00:17:21] He is healthier now. I'm just saying the left side of the infield would be much better defensively. And for the pitchers, that, that's a big deal. It is a big deal. Maybe, maybe you just DH Polanco most of the time. Either way, either way, there's going to be like an anchor defensively at at least one position in any of these scenarios. Well, again, you say DH Polanco, but we cannot keep stressing this enough. I think they need to just get Randy out of the outfield. But each of the last two years his defense has been

[00:17:51] a huge problem and I don't see it getting better. I guess we'll see. That's, that's why I'm ready for opening day. I want to see these things actually play out so they can hopefully evaluate and make these decisions instead of us just sitting here speculating off from a thousand miles away of spring training. So I get it, but are you now starting to see where the gears are being grinded a little bit? I'm thinking about Randy in left field. I'm thinking about Polanco at third. I'm thinking about Luke hitting left-handed pitching. Like it's all starting to. I would say from my perspective,

[00:18:20] most of this was already known except for the Rayleigh thing. And I, and I think the fact that we're getting closer and closer, it's starting to hit me in the face a little bit. It's dawning on you a little bit, but we knew going into spring, it's like this roster is pretty experimental for a team that's supposed to be in a contending window. And you remember our famed rants at the end of the off season. It's like, all right, like you take a look at this roster within a contention window and you're like, feels like way too many question marks for a team that's supposed to be in the middle of a contention window. And I guess it just hits

[00:18:50] home a little bit more once we get to opening day. I'm going to be honest, Lyle though, I'm still very excited for opening day because, you know, they could be, they could be good. And we won't know until they start playing games. And good, you should be. And in fact, on that note, I am just one person. If every single one of you listening to this says, Lyle, you're a moron. I don't know what you're talking about. Opening day is great. I hope that's how you feel. Fans should be, like, fans should be excited or truthfully, fans should really just fan however they want to. On that note,

[00:19:20] there is a message I want to send to fans about that. Just how you fan and how you want to fan ahead of opening day. I'm going to save that for probably the show before opening day. Just deliver a little message to all you guys. It's all positive. And basically, and basically, like, telling every single one of you in your own way, you're right. But I'm going to save it. And just to remind people for next week, in terms of programming, episodes will be Tuesday and Thursday. So we're going to have Jason Churchill on Tuesday and then our season predictions episode will be on Thursday

[00:19:50] prior to opening day. Right. We do that every week on opening day so that way an episode comes out on opening day, not an opening day preview the day after opening day. So yeah, just for next week, it'll be Tuesday, Thursday. But yeah, so that's, I guess that's just how I'm feeling as we get closer and closer to opening day. It's just, yeah, it's dawning on me a little bit. That's the right way to put it. And I just, I can't get out of my head how I felt the second half of last season. So. Is the only thing that changes this

[00:20:19] making the playoffs? Yeah, they got to win. Yeah. They got to win. Yeah, they do. And stay healthy. But that probably, those two probably correlate with each other. Notice we didn't even talk about injuries in that whole thing. It was all question marks if everyone is healthy. Right. Exactly. I hope Luke Raley is not hitting against lefties. Let me, let me, at least not very often. Let me just end it with that. Again, we all know where, where the anger goes for the most part. But if the coaching staff has the roster in front of them

[00:20:49] and decides to do that long term, yeah, I wouldn't be thrilled about that. And basing things off of last year, my last note on this, it is a totally new coaching staff on the hitting side. And that's what scares me a little bit. Different evaluation. Again, this is what scares me a little bit is not to say every new school coaching staff is elite, but the last two coaching staffs Luke Raley's been a part of, it's been two managers that are very, very fundamentally sound with analytics and oftentimes

[00:21:20] knew, again, what the numbers said for how to get the best out of their players. The Rays got the best out of Luke Raley in Tampa. The Mariners got the best out of them in Seattle last year. What, am I wrong on that? Yeah, you're right. This might be part of my personality, but Lyle knows I like sometimes playing devil's advocate with things and it ends up leading to more arguments than probably should. So let me follow up. just quick thing. All I was going to say to end that thought process is this new coaching staff,

[00:21:50] you know, they're super old school and that does scare me a bit. Was the old coaching staff in the new school sense, were they productive enough offensively? No. Okay. No. But with Luke Raley, they were. Right. Okay, on an individual sense, but not in a team sense. No. I'm just talking about Luke Raley. It's a different line of thinking and, you know, if it does lead to more runs and that's the sacrifice you make, okay.

[00:22:20] Sure. Right. All right. Let's take a quick pause because we've got a more positive topic, especially that's right up my alley after this. A couple of them. So, you know what? We'll save the pause. There is something we really want to talk about because we're rolling out something brand new, aren't we? Yeah, we got merch. Merch! We got merch now, finally. If you came to our live show at Moss Bay last month, we did have like a tiny,

[00:22:50] we had a tiny little bit we were able to give away, but now we actually have stuff that you can go online and buy and we're really pumped. We have hoodies and shirts to start. Hoodies and shirts that will be on sale. So, if you go to the Just Baseball website, justbaseball.shop, that's where you can find our new merch. We're really pumped and we will have it in a different location. So, it's always going to be on there. The merch will always have a home on the justbaseball.shop website. I do believe you need to go search it in the search bar,

[00:23:20] but you can find it. There's a Marine Layer pod collection on there. You can also just go to like hoodies and then you can go to shirts and it'll pop up on there for you. You can do either. If you do, you'll find it. You'll be able to find it. So, it'll always have a home on there, but it will have a there will be another place to go find it here soon that we're hoping to be able to announce soon. But, wow, I'm pumped. We have physical merch. Very exciting. Oh, I cannot wait. I think that's another reason I'm fired up today.

[00:23:49] A lot of that first 20 minutes was for negative reasons, but to roll out the merch here, like genuinely, I'm just, I'm so fired up about it. To essentially have our own product and two, to hopefully see a bunch of people wearing it around because that would be so cool. And I want to send this message before we get on to more baseball talk. If you go buy the merch and we really hope you do, please, please, please

[00:24:19] take a photo of you in it and tag us because we want to retweet a bunch of it. We want to put a bunch of it on our Instagram story. We hope to see it around the park and just out in public, period. But tag us in it if you get the merch and are wearing it and we will absolutely repost it and share it with people because that would, that'd be so cool. So, yeah, I can't wait for this. Our buddies over at Just Baseball really did a great job and, and just an awesome job helping us set this up and get this rolling and we can't wait to

[00:24:48] share it with all you guys now. The link to buy justbaseball.shop that's justbaseball.shop We'll also link it in the description on YouTube and on all the audio episodes as well. And again, stay tuned. We will have a, a, a different thing to announce alongside merch coming up here soon that you guys want to keep an eye out for. Definitely. Okay. Positive Lyle baseball topic. Kobe Mayo comes out this week and essentially

[00:25:17] frames himself first of all being blocked in the Oros infield as we talked about all offseason and that he has nowhere to play and essentially goes on a bit of an unfiltered rant on how it's going to be a lose-lose for him going back to AAA this year. Wow. Have the Mariners' odds increased in getting him? They haven't gone down. Kobe. Kobe. Kobe. Kobe. Kobe. I told you I was fired up today. Oh, I have so much energy and I couldn't even tell you why.

[00:25:48] Yes, I still want Kobe Mayo. If you watch their social media posts about it on Wednesday, you know I still want him. If you want to read what Kobe Mayo had to say, it's on Twitter and it's in some articles across Baltimore media outlets, but here's what he essentially said about getting sent back down. He said it's difficult. He said it sucks, but the part of it that jumped out to me, he said, in terms of going back to AAA, he said, obviously if you go back there and if you have success, the saying will be, oh, he's supposed to have success because he's already proven it.

[00:26:17] And if he doesn't have success, this is all Mayo's wording, if he doesn't have success, it's, oh well, obviously he's fallen off, it's a lose-lose going to Norfolk, which is the Orioles AAA affiliate. I gotta tell you, I agree with every single word Kobe Mayo just said. This dude has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues and what he is essentially saying is, if I play well in AAA this year, I can't get called up because I'm blocked by Jordan Westberg and I'm blocked by Ryan Mountcastle who still has two years of club control and if

[00:26:47] I don't play well, I'm not going to get called up anyway. So he is absolutely right with what he is saying and he has every right to be frustrated because he's got nothing left to do in the minors. So he could be on the block this year. And it makes sense because, what's a good word for that? Because in season it's easier to trade for prospects than it was offseason because we saw there was only one real trade this offseason that had prospects in it and that was the Garrett Crochet trade.

[00:27:17] That means that if the Mariners have targeted or look at it and he's their kind of player, which I would hope so given the state of the Mariners third base position, you know, kind of makes sense. And Kobe Mayo's made himself clear that he thinks along the lines in public that everyone can pretty much see that he doesn't really have a path to playing in Baltimore. Yeah. Does the end to be honest, Lyle, that my this might make his trade value go down just a little bit. I'd say the Orioles still have a decent amount of leverage here,

[00:27:47] but still, it's a, it would be good for him. And the Orioles, I know, have plenty of needs that they could, that they could fill by offloading some, some infield depth that they have. That's what I'm getting at here. I cannot imagine his trade values going up at this point, paired with the fact that the two positions that Kobe Mayo plays, who, by the way, is 23 years old, just turned 23 a couple months ago, and has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. The two positions that

[00:28:15] Kobe Mayo plays, third base and first base. Now, who is playing those two positions for the Seattle Mariners as we currently speak? Well, that would be two guys that are totally out of position right now. So they could upgrade. Well, I can't for sure say upgrade because Mayo is not a proven commodity in the big leagues yet, but they could go trade for him this second and still make it work on their roster. So, the Orioles, man, they are a mess in terms of their pitching.

[00:28:45] Like, I knew it was bad. Looking through it, it's even worse than I realized. Corbin Burns is obviously gone, and G-Rod, Grayson Rodriguez, is going to miss time again with injury. So, he's not starting the season in the rotation. We'll see how long it takes him to get back. It doesn't sound like it's going to be all that quick. He's going to be shut down from throwing for at least a couple weeks. So, here's the current Baltimore Orioles rotation. Zach Eflin is starting opening day for them.

[00:29:15] Think about this whole Orioles core with the young bats and how good they all are in Gunner, Westberg, Adley, Holiday, Couser, etc. Like, all these stud bats. Opening day starter is Zach Eflin. Gets better than that. Charlie Morton, at 41 years old, is slated to be their number two, who had a 419 ERA last year. Dean Kramer is slated to be their number three. He had a 410 ERA, and his FIPS suggested he should have been even worse than that.

[00:29:45] Tomoyuki Sagano, who's in his mid-30s from Japan, will also be in this rotation. A guy who our friend Peter Apple over at Just Baseball said, if you gave me 10 at bats, I could take Sagano deep, is what he said. That's how unimpressed he's been with Sagano so far in spring training. Again, mid-30s, upside not that high. That's their fourth guy. Followed up and finished off with Cade Povich, who had a

[00:30:13] negative 0.5 war in 80 innings last year. Sorry, actually, no, that doesn't top it all off. Because if they're looking for reinforcements, they do not have them. Six of the Orioles' top seven prospects in their system, per MLB pipeline, are also bats. Only Chase McDermott is the arm, who will probably pitch some innings this year. The Orioles need pitching, and Kobe Mayo's blocked in the minors.

[00:30:40] I really, I really, I hope this seems like a seamless trade. I know the Mariners and Orioles haven't made one yet, but it makes a lot of sense, man. Mariners have a lot of starters, too. It's going to hurt us. Just, just, I hope you know. Oh, well, that's true. It is. Because let's lay out the scenario here. If we're going to fulfill what the Orioles actually need in this case, just, you know, laying it all out. The Mariners are not going to trade any of their top four for

[00:31:09] Kobe Mayo. That would be malpractice by Jerry DiPoto. Luis Castillo has a no-trade clause in season. The Mariners are playing well, well enough for the Mariners to want to go out and acquire their third baseman of the future. They're probably not acquiring Luis Castillo. And then after that, it goes Emerson Hancock, Logan Evans, and Brandon Garcia. That, that would be a tough one to swallow. Yeah, it would. And then Morales might be in there, too. Yeah.

[00:31:39] Right, like right after. That's, the four in a row after trading out of your big league rotation is a, you know, that's like, that's a dagger to a heart right there. Yeah, for our hearts, that would be really hard. That's a good point. Maybe I didn't stop and think about that part of it enough. That's where the situation's at right now. Or what? Kobe, if you want to take it, you want a tip that you want to, uh, that you'd be okay playing in T-Mobile Park. Hit us up. Yes.

[00:32:09] DM us. DM us. I mean, he knows that just baseball guys were only a message away. So. Do you remember we talked about the six degrees of separation? Only one. Yeah, it's true. Kobe's been on, been on the call up plenty, which is just baseball's prospect podcast, which our friend RM Leighton does and Jack McMullen. They do such a great job with it. So if you need a prospect podcast ever listened to, you can go check that out. But yeah, Kobe Mayo, Mariner, stab it. Just not for, not for any of our guys. Our, our, our demands are

[00:32:39] totally reasonable here. Yeah. Unless they want, um, well, I can't trade Sebi anymore. Damn. I was going to wonder if it would take someone like Durangelo, but the Orioles might want somebody closer to the big leagues. Yeah. They want a big leaguer. Probably. Mariners have, uh, four or in terms of prospects, three, three, essentially three right now. Right. It could be four by mid season. Right. Right. Right.

[00:33:07] So anyway, I'm just saying he is blocked in Baltimore and the Mariners really need that. And the Mariners have a similar situation. The difference between the difference between Kobe and say Emerson Hancock right now. And this is not, not no slight at Kobe Mayo is that Emerson hasn't said that that's literally the only difference. I love Emerson. He's like the nicest guy in the world. He, um, like he, he would never, I don't think he would ever say

[00:33:37] something like this, but the situations are essentially the same. I think Kobe's upside is much higher, but yes, it is. But still in terms of like, I want to be a big leaguer. I want to make big league money and produce for a big league roster. Can't. Yeah. All right, fine. I'm making one real demand here. I hate to pick favorites, but I'm going to do it. Okay. It's not for Logan Evans. He's off the table. He's not going anywhere. Otherwise I, I guess I have to be open ears. I don't want to be open ears to the other guys.

[00:34:06] Cause again, like this is what happens when you build relationships with people. It's like, you don't want to see him leave the org, but Logan's, Logan's the one I'm putting the stamp on is like, nah, he's off limits. No trade clause. Yeah. A Marine layer pod, no trade clause for Logan. Yeah. We'll put, we'll put it in writing. Yeah, exactly. All right. Point being Kobe Mayo makes a lot of sense here. So if it's going to happen in the next three to four days, no, but I would say it's something to absolutely keep an eye on as the season rolls along because it makes a lot of sense. Yep. All right.

[00:34:36] Let's take a quick pause. We're going to talk to you guys about our friends over at Pogaccia's pub 85. That's over in Kirkland. March madness is here. You guys, it's rolling along. If you need a spot to go watch the games, this being the best weekend of the year, oftentimes in, well, you can argue in sports, but sometimes college, but obviously college basketball with the nonstop games head over there, plan a time with your friends, go watch a bunch of the games. There's great food. There's games like pool darts. There's a jukebox. And if you want awesome drinks three and four bucks during happy hour, you guys, I mean, they're great all the time, but especially during happy hour,

[00:35:06] they have drinks. They're three and $4. That's two to 6 PM on Monday through Friday. So all that a great time with your friends is over at Pogaccia's pub 85 in Kirkland. It's time for the bullpen preview. We'll start, we'll start with the guy. I think who has the, the meatiest amount of things to analyze and Andres Munoz, and then we'll go from there. I'm going to be honest, like looking through this group as a whole, doesn't there talk about question marks while we were just, we spent the first 20 minutes

[00:35:35] of this episode yelling about question marks. There's a lot of question marks in this bullpen as well. We'll see if we'll see if Lyle can keep his energy where Lyle's energy level is for these question marks, as opposed to the question marks at the beginning of the episode. I got to start with it. They're not, you want to be honest? They're, they're not to the level of the start of the episode. Okay. I don't know why that didn't think so. Otherwise we would have started with it. Sure. And I'll also let the people know, do we know exactly who's going to be in this bullpen? No.

[00:36:05] And there's obviously a couple guys here. We're going to highlight that are going to start on the IL, but we pick seven relievers. We decided it was probably the seven most important ones. And that's who we're going to talk about. So we're going to talk about Andres Munoz. Then Matt Brash, Gregory Santos, Gabe Speyer, Taylor Saucedo, Trent Thornton, and Troy Taylor. Those are our seven. Let's start at the top of the mountain in Mr. Andres Munoz. What he, what's the right word? Workhorse?

[00:36:35] Yeah, he was a workhorse last year. And the fact that he continued his, you know, his path of being what we would qualify as like a top 15, top 10 reliever in all baseball last year with the pitches he added throughout the last couple of years to get to the point where he is right now. And then all of a sudden he debuts this change up in spring training. I'm, I'm excited for another Andres Munoz season. Lyle, the change up could be a real thing. It could be just another step in

[00:37:04] his evolution as one of these ultimate dogs in baseball. Mm-hmm. Listen, we've spent plenty of time on this podcast today praising everybody over at Just Baseball because we love being a part of it and all those guys are awesome. We talk about it all the time. But now since we've done so much positive, you know, shining a positive light on them, I'm going to put them in the negative here for a minute and I think they can take it. They put out their top 20 relievers ahead of the year. Not only did they not have Andres

[00:37:33] Munoz in the top 20, but then they rattled off six, seven, eight guys on their just missed list and also did not have Andres Munoz on there. So to our guys over at the Just Baseball show, I'm sorry, but you're wrong. Shame. Yeah. Shame. You're wrong. Andres Munoz had the lowest ERA of his career last year. Lower than his 2022 season that we hold as the standard bearer. Isn't that kind of crazy? Yeah, it is crazy, especially because there were points that felt a little more up and down at times

[00:38:03] last year. But yes, that was his best season by ERA to date, which credit to Andres, especially because after 2023, there were points of that year that were shaky. And for the majority of 2024, he responded in a really big way. And the best thing I think about last year is he sort of regained that magic he had with his slider. It's not going to get back to his 2022 sense. It'll be hard. Maybe it will in another best case scenario season, but it's 2022.

[00:38:33] Andres Munoz is in good sense, probably going to be a standard in terms of expected stats, in terms of dominance for his entire career. Because is that season? He was a big reason why the Mariners made the playoffs. And I think we'll be up there in terms of his peak dominance. This past year, though, was pretty close. And it comes back to regaining a little bit more of the, say, fervor he had with that pitch. While also, you know, being more

[00:39:02] comfortable with the addition of his fastball that he had. And then the sinker, which he started throwing even more this past season, which allowed him to have a little bit more of a diverse set in terms of attacking hitters. And later on, I want to talk about his changeup and sort of how that integrates with all of his other pitches. But I was happy, Lyle, that he did find some of that attacking and some of that success with his slider backs. I think that's ultimately going to determine whether or not Andres Munoz is successful

[00:39:32] or not. Sure. Now that he wasn't successful last year, because not only was his ERA sitting at 212 and not only did he make the All-Star game, but his expected stats were good and held up. He got a ton of swing and miss. His savant page is bright red. He also got ground balls. For the most part, essentially, aside from his home road splits, which we have talked about, aside from that, he did everything he

[00:39:59] could have possibly done as a reliever last year. Again, aside from the home road stuff and probably aside from the walks, I'd still love to see his walks come down a little bit in 2025 because there was a point in his career where he wasn't walking anybody, like in 2022 when he had the slider. So those two things are probably the big things to circle with Munoz is the walks and what he does at home versus on the road. But aside from that, yes, this is one of the best relievers in baseball. He's proven it three years in a row now. And while the walk rate was high, I think

[00:40:29] his whip does kind of articulate the difference between his 22 and 24 and then his 23 because this 2023 whip, Lyle, is like almost one three, which for relievers, not not good, especially not for an elite reliever. But this last year went back below one. It was 0.96. Right. Despite the walk rate being almost the same. So that shows you the difference. You know, when he's throwing the ball in the strike zone, how hittable is he really? 100 percent. And he's not very hittable. And you're right.

[00:40:58] And his whip getting back under one was awesome last year. So just imagine what he can do if he continues to cut down the walks as whip could go from 0.9 to 0.7. Yeah. What do we think about his workload? I was a little worried he was getting overworked at times last year. I hope they ease them in a little bit in 2025. It's going to be hard because to start the year, there's not going to be a bunch of dependable guys

[00:41:28] back there in the back end of games, aside from Munoz when you need to win these games. But I do hope they find a way to manage him a little bit because it felt like at times last year he was getting a bit overworked. You know, that's what I felt like, too. None of the stuff fell off, though, when I was looking at his velocity didn't dip as the season went along. He did have a rough August, but Lyle, the entire Mariners team had a rough August of last year. I think the only guy who had a good month of August was Julio last year.

[00:41:57] So, yes, but you know whose stuff never dropped off in 2023 was Matt Brash. Yeah. So. Now, I'll say in terms of an innings workload, there was a difference between Brash in 23 and Munoz in 24, but everyone does react to things differently. I'm not saying you're wrong. Although Munoz spent some time on the I.L. with the back issue, and then even when he came back, remember there were certain days he was only throwing once every four days or so.

[00:42:25] So he had time that he missed last year because of an injury, and had he not missed that time, I think you might have seen him throw even more. If he doesn't throw those innings, though, Mariners probably finish farther than a game out of the playoffs. And that's the dangerous game the Mariners play with their bullpen in terms of how it was last year. Yeah, they were expecting to have Brash and Santos healthy last year, but they didn't. So they had to, and Munoz was able to come through.

[00:42:53] You're anticipating by May Brash and Santos are back, and they can occupy those levered spots, and Andres Munoz has to throw three outs max. Although Santos should be on the opening day roster. He should. Yeah. I have fun stats about Gregory Santos. Okay. When we get to him. Well, let's wrap up Munoz here really fast, and then we'll kind of fly through the rest of the guys, because aside from Munoz, I don't think we can spend that much time on any of these guys. You're right.

[00:43:22] Do we want to make anything about Munoz's home road splits? Again, for people that don't know what we're talking about, they're about as insane as I've ever seen. At home last year, it was 0-28, and on the road it was 4-28. Not really. You know why? Because almost all of the damage against Munoz comes when he gives up homers. Right. It's a common theme with pitchers. It's not a shock that he gives up more homers on the road than he does at home.

[00:43:51] Because the ball flies farther on the road. And that is kind of the story of his career. His career splits are 167 at home in terms of ERA, and 372 on the road. Which, yeah, Munoz doesn't give up a lot of home runs in T-Mobile Park. In fact, it's almost never. It's like the same problem Logan Gilbert has. Sure. Same idea. When you throw that hard and guys get a barrel on it, it's going to happen at some times. And unfortunately for Munoz, on the road it'll happen more often, because the home environment is so good.

[00:44:20] But I do... Can we talk about the changeup? I want to talk about the changeup. All right. Last thing and then we'll move on. Let's talk about the changeup. Undetermined how much he's going to throw it yet. We've seen a grand total of one in a spring game. One, I think. More on the bullpens. And a few on the backfields. And a few on the backfields. I had to go back and double check, because I thought I was going crazy, but I wasn't. So that one we saw in the game, right? It was nasty. Confirm? Yes. It was really nasty.

[00:44:51] Did you realize that one only broke half as much as that one that made the rounds? Like that Jude tweeted out and Shannon tweeted out. That the one that Cal went like, Oh my God. When he caught it. Yeah. The one in the game had five inches of drop. And the one during his bullpen that, like you said, kind of went viral, had 10 inches of drop. Remember when he was, when we were talking to him and he was telling us like, the pitch only drops. He, I think he, he told us exactly like five inches in the game.

[00:45:20] I want to be honest, five inches looks pretty good. Yeah. You can sign me all the way up for that change up with five inches of drop. That's totally fine by me. I hope he uses it. And I was, I was curious as to have getting, having some time to think about this pitch. Why is he throwing it? I asked Joe Doyle about this. Cause Joe's really smart and knows a lot about the stuff. His answer was essentially, you know, sometimes guys just want to be nastier and that's fine. And I get, and I, and I totally get that.

[00:45:50] I do think though, Lyle, it comes at a big benefit to him against lefties where he's pretty good against against lefties and righties, but his fastball and sinker are not very effective against lefties. That is, he throws those pitches a lot. He has to rely on his slider, like half the time against lefties. And if you throw a pitch that often as nasty as that pitches, eventually it will get hit. So just the fact he has a pitch that he can keep lefties honest with and have a

[00:46:18] little bit more success with his sinker, which by the way, against righties is disgusting. It's unbelievable. He, he arguably should throw his sinker against righties more than he throws his slider against righties, even though the slider should be the righty out pitch. His sinker arguably does a better job at it, but against lefties, it's a different story that those two pitches, the two hard pitches he throws aren't as effective and a change up that goes the other direction as his slider. I think is the, the chance to be a true difference making pitch for someone who didn't really need one,

[00:46:47] but it could really benefit him because it actually fits the exact weakness. He sort of has in his matchups. It's got a chance to be really, really lethal and you don't see that many relievers throw four pitches. Truthfully might not throw his four seamer that much. If he's really going to use the change up might just be the other three sinker change up and the slider, but point being, he may have just done exactly what Joe was saying to you and gotten that much nastier. I don't know how much he's going to use it.

[00:47:17] I hope it's at least a little bit because it could really keep some people off balance. And if it's as good as it's looked in the spring, it has a chance to be really good. Yeah. It might just be a pitchy throws though. 5% of the time. Right. At least, at least in year one, or at least in the like April and May until it gets more comfortable. But if it keeps hitters off balance a little bit, that's fine. Right. Yep. And to be honest, doesn't even need to be a strike pitch. It's gonna be a pitchy throws in the dirt. Right. All right.

[00:47:46] Matt Brash. We're going to kind of just rattle through the rest of these. Guys. I cannot wait for him to get back. They're still targeting about a late April return, which is an incredible recovery time that he's had from this Tommy John. Granted, he didn't have the full one with the full brace and everything like Coar did. It's still a really fast return and a credit to him. But I think this has to be less about trying to evaluate who Matt Brash is going to be because the last time he fully pitched was two seasons ago now.

[00:48:14] And more just talking about what he will look like health wise once he gets back. I expect him to be full go. I expect him to look good. I anticipate the Mariners are not putting him in the big leagues if he's anything less than 100%. I want him to be throwing 98 and that slider to be moving like it does. So in terms of stuff, that's that's how I'd want it to be. In terms of stuff. Yeah. And they shouldn't put him in the big leagues unless he's back to full strength.

[00:48:42] I more mean how they're going to use them as the season progresses. I can't imagine once he gets back, at least right away, they're going to be using them in back-to-backs. I'm going to guess they're probably going to ease them in pretty slow. I wouldn't be shocked if for the first few weeks, it may even be once every three games you see him. In July and August, though, I think it'll be different. If he gets to July and August and has no setbacks, I mean, I think he'll be good to go. That's different.

[00:49:11] And that's basically where I was going to get to. When he gets back, I think you'll see him. At least early on, every other day, maybe once every three days, depending on how slowly they want to work him back. If that all goes well, you'll probably start to see him every other night. And if that continues to go well on a buildup that would probably target like you're talking about around the all-star break, then I would guess in the second half, you'll see Brash on a lot more back-to-backs. I have one Matt Brash stat that I think is going to highlight the importance of his return to the bullpen this year

[00:49:41] and what the bullpen was really missing so much last season. Matt Brash in 2023 pitched in the seventh inning more than any other inning he threw. It was the seventh inning and it was the sixth inning. That were his two highest volume, or sorry. It went seventh, eighth, sixth. Sorry. Seventh, eighth, sixth were the three innings he threw the most in in 2023. Do you know what inning the Mariners had the highest ERA in last year?

[00:50:10] I think you're about to tell me the seventh. It was the seventh inning. What was the second highest ERA in an inning? I am going to guess the eighth. You are correct. You ever wonder why they struggled in those middle innings? It's because they didn't have the guy who threw the most innings in those two spots last season. It's pretty crucial that he comes back and that he succeeds because that's his role and the Mariners have not found a way to replace it.

[00:50:39] I don't think they're anticipating finding a way to replace it except for getting Matt Brash healthy and have him throw. Not only does he just have ridiculous stuff, as we all know, but that role he serves is so crucial because they like to call him the pivot guy. At least Scott Service did when he was here. And what they mean by that is he can do a bunch of different things and play in a bunch of different roles. If Logan Gilbert, let's just use him as an example, works into the seventh inning but comes out of the game with an out in the seventh

[00:51:09] and a guy's on base or maybe two guys are on base, you'd see Matt Brash get brought into those games and those situations a lot and more often than not he was getting the team out of it because guys can't hit him. Or if you need him to throw a full inning, he can obviously do it. If you need him to close games, he can do it. Not only is he one of the nastiest relievers in all of baseball but his ability to work in so many different roles so missed last year. This may be a lukewarm take

[00:51:38] but I don't even think it is. I think it's just a normal take. For all the problems the Mariners had last year on offense, in the bullpen, etc. If absolutely nothing else changes except for Matt Brash is healthy all year last year, I think they're in the playoffs. Nothing else changes. I agree with you. They are. I'd say they are. I'd stamp it. Bad Polanco year aside, bad Garver year aside, Julio really tough first four months aside. All of that can still happen.

[00:52:07] But if they have Matt Brash, I think they're in the playoffs. I agree. It's a good take. Moving on. Gregory Santos, Lyle. People love to call him the idea. Divish loves it. Brock and Salk love it. I think it's about right. Although I'll amend it a little bit. Because Gregory Santos in 2023, it's easy to forget, was a dominant reliever in 2023.

[00:52:34] This is a guy who slider by opponent slugging percentage was better than Matt Brash's in 2023. By run value, it was the exact same as Matt Brash's in 2023. For as hyped up as that Brash slider is, for every good reason, you can argue Santos slider was better in 2023. Paired with the fact that he never, ever gave up home runs. He never gave up barrels.

[00:53:02] He did not give up hard contact in the air. And absolutely can be a dynamite back-end guy. The problem is, there's just been so much up and down with his injuries and his very few appearances that have looked shaky both last year and a little bit in spring training, that there is still a bunch of unknown and a little bit of mystery with him. I have no doubt about his stuff. Zero doubt about his stuff. I just want to see him throw. Well, he has thrown less than an inning a week in spring training. Mm-hmm.

[00:53:33] That's a real stat. The Mariners have played at this point 28 spring training games. He's appeared in four. That is a little weird. How are we supposed to predict what he's going to do? It's hard. It's very, very hard. I hope he pitches because he is disgusting. But man, we have nothing to work off of. He threw seven innings last year. And that's why I'm not going to sit here and talk about his 2024 year because there's nothing you can really judge it off.

[00:54:02] You can't even really judge his spring training either. No. Three and two-thirds innings in spring. And yeah, like not every reliever is going to throw a ton. He's thrown four of 28 games. So this is about as baseline and like remedial level thinking as you can possibly get to. But I'm going to use it here. Shouldn't the Mariners be able to turn him into a dynamite back-end reliever

[00:54:30] if the Chicago White Sox can do it? Yes. To answer your question. But he's going to need to throw. That's the point. Yeah. There's nothing... He's going to be a dominant back-end reliever if he's not appearing 50 times? Again, I assume he's going to start the year on the roster, but... The fact we can't even say that right now is the problem.

[00:54:58] It is a little weird he's thrown so little. Although, to be fair, how much have other guys thrown in spring? More? That's... Let me look it up while you're talking. Okay. And just to add some more context, his first spring outing wasn't until March 6th, right? Some of these guys take a little longer to get ramped up when it comes to spring training. But... It's... It is a fact. He just has not thrown all that much. And even at the beginning of the season,

[00:55:27] if he makes the big league roster, he's going to be in the same boat, I feel like, the way they'll treat him as Brash is. The only one who would probably have no handcuffs when it comes to workload is going to be Andres Munoz and, say, like, Trent Thornton. Mm-hmm. Who... Trent... Context, I'll bring it up when we talk about Trent, but he threw more innings than any reliever in the Mariners' bullpen last year. So they don't have a problem with throwing him all the time. All right. But all these other guys, especially the leverage guys, the ones they're going to need to win these close games and they're talking about

[00:55:56] how much every game matters, like, they need this guy to be available a lot. And, again, not even in spring training is he that available. All right, yeah. I'm now looking at some of the other relievers. Gabe's made six appearances, thrown six innings. Colin Snyder's made six or seven appearances, thrown six innings. Trent Thornton's thrown seven innings. Sauce has thrown six and two-thirds innings and seven appearances. So, yeah, it's more than Santos.

[00:56:26] The idea. I really hope the idea ends up being an elite one. I hope so. They really need it. Mm-hmm. Okay, up next. Fascinating one to look at, Lyle. Our guy Sauce. His last two seasons. I kid you not. The exact same. Which is crazy because the narrative amongst people, the fans, the media, et cetera, seems to be a little different on Sauce going into 2025

[00:56:56] than it was 2024. But, yeah, you compare the two years, they really are almost identical. His ERA in 2023 was 359. In 2024, it was 349. Underlying numbers were really similar. In fact, some of his expected stats were actually better last year than in 23. His home road splits are very similar in each of the two years. His savant page looks about the same as it has each of the two years where, you know, he's a guy that sinker baller

[00:57:25] gets ground balls, doesn't strike a ton of guys out, but that's who he is. All the way up to the point of in both years, he had a really good first half and struggled in the second half. It's been very, very similar seasons. Yet, for some reason, the narrative's a little different. The ball got hit in the air a little bit more against him last year, but again, the results, pretty much the same. Right. So that's why the Mariners probably feel totally comfortable with Sauce going into this upcoming season. Like,

[00:57:55] if he stays healthy, they know what they're going to get. And I think what they get out of Taylor Saucedo for a bullpen lefty, and we'll talk about the other lefty in the bullpen, our guy Gabe, coming up here in a second, but it's a nice counterbalance to what those two lefties offer in this bullpen and their roles, and they know that for what they're going to pay Sauce to do out of that bullpen, he's going to do for them. You talked about this before the podcast started, and the reason the narrative may have been different last year around Sauce is because unfortunately,

[00:58:23] of how banged up the bullpen was last year, it forced guys into roles that were probably stretching him out a little far. Sauce is a good reliever. He's a good left-handed reliever, but he's not usually somebody that's going to throw in a bunch of leverage spots, and he did have to throw in more leverage spots last year. He's really good when he's the first lefty out of the pen, starter comes out of the game, he gets a few outs. He's a good left-handed reliever, but he was stretched out into a big role last year because

[00:58:53] Brash wasn't there, Santos wasn't there, other guys were banged up at times, Jimmy Garcia wasn't what he was supposed to be. Yeah, I think if he's in that role he was more in in 2023, that's your perfect medium with Sauce, and that's how you get the best out of him. The big reason he was stretched out is because, as we'll move on to our next guy, Gabe was not available. He was hurt. He was dealing with shoulder issues, had a great April, to start out, and then really struggled. Couldn't throw strikes, wasn't effective,

[00:59:22] was throwing a lot softer as the season went along, and ended up bouncing between AAA and the big leagues for the rest of the season, but the way it sounds in spring training, when we talk to Gabe, feels comfortable and he feels more back to his 2023 self. Yeah, and I think those struggles last year had almost everything to do with the shoulder injury. Was he injured all of May when he was pitching? I don't know that. We're not going to speculate on that, obviously, but something just didn't look right,

[00:59:52] and we kept talking about it last May when it was going on. Like you said, Vila was down, wasn't throwing all the first pitch strikes that he's gotten so good at throwing, just was a little all over the place with command, and something just didn't look right. It did not shock me when he landed on the IL with that shoulder injury, and unfortunately, shoulder injuries can really, really be tough, and they can really linger around when it's in that throwing arm, and I think it affected him big time last year, and I think the fact he had a whole offseason off, and a whole offseason

[01:00:21] to recover and get better and build his strength back up, now he looks more like the Gabe Spire that was really good in 2023 when he's thrown in spring training, and I think we're going to see more of that. In our vlog, which if you haven't checked out from spring training, go do that, because we had a blast doing it, and it was, I think, really cool to take you guys behind the scenes. I stamped it, I said, Gabe Spire's having a bounce back this year, and I believe that, and I think a big part of that is because he's healthy. The expected numbers are right along with you, because his expected numbers did not

[01:00:51] change that much actually between the two seasons, despite the results being a little bit different, the expected numbers were almost essentially the same. Wow, his expected ERA had a hundredth of a point of difference between 23 and 24. Yeah, it's pretty well. A hundredth of a point. He also still had a six run value on his fastball last year, on his four-seamer, despite all... Fastball was really good last year. despite not throwing any innings, basically, and despite spending a lot of that time hurt, basketball was still really good, and by the way,

[01:01:21] opponents didn't slug against it at all. They couldn't hit it to save their lives, and a lot of that's from April. Like, remember that awesome outing he had in Texas when he had to come into that jam, and he got Corey Seager, and he got him out of the bases loaded situation? I mean, he was really good until that shoulder started to bother him. It was almost all April, 5% of the batters in that month, and I'll let you know, just for the season, it was still really good. I think most of the issue came from the drop in velo, and the fact he wasn't throwing strikes. His walk rate almost

[01:01:50] tripled in one season. Yeah. That's not good. Right. No. But, so we saw the velo being down, and the velo numbers, in case you forgot, we've talked about them before, we can talk about them again. So last year, in 2024, he threw six pitches at 95 miles an hour or more. In 2023, he threw 224 of them at 95 miles an hour or more. Yeah. It's a pretty stark difference. So if Gabe's getting back to throwing 95, and he gets back to mixing his sinker

[01:02:19] in a little bit more, as well as keeping the value with that fastball, I'm going to feel pretty confident that Gabe Spire's going to have another really good season. Might not be his 2023 season. That might be a career year for him in terms of strike throwing. But even so, we've even seen when Gabe has some struggles in some areas, the underlying numbers are still really good, and the stuff can still be very dynamite. Yeah. Absolutely. And he has been throwing up in the mid to upper 90s in spring training this year. His bullpens have been that. You've seen it a bit in the games. It's looked good.

[01:02:49] Last thing on Gabe, just to remind people how good he can be. Do you remember the stat we found on Gabe last year? Because I have it written down. I found it, so I should know it, but no. So we found it at the start of last year, just contextualizing how good he was in 2023. He was the only pitcher ever, ever, to have a strikeout rate over 29%, walk rate under 5%, and a ground ball rate over 55% combined all in one year.

[01:03:19] It's pretty good. It's pretty good. Since they started tracking pitches. Since they started tracking it. In 0-2. Right. Still pretty good. It's really good. He can be really good when he's healthy. All right, two to go. Let's get to Trent Thornton. You said it. Through the most innings in the bullpen last year of any of those guys, really good in April, really good in September, solid August, but those middle months were a struggle for him. When we talk about loaded questions, asking about Troy Taylor's, or Troy Taylor, Trent Thornton's a loaded question.

[01:03:49] Mm-hmm. I truly think so. If you look at the totality of the numbers, he's the second most valuable reliever you have in your bullpen. But if I were to ask you, Lyle, who the second most valuable reliever in the bullpen is, you wouldn't say Trent Thornton. No, I'd say Matt Brash. Or I made the argument Brash is the most valuable guy in the bullpen. Exactly. So that's why when we look at Trent Thornton, it's kind of confusing. It's a similar situation to Sauce when it comes to narrative. Like, the results are there. The expected numbers are there.

[01:04:18] His ERA was solid. His expected numbers were solid. He had an above-average strikeout rate, and he had an average to below-average walk rate. That's everything you want out of a reliever. Right? But it still doesn't mean it always translated to success. He had a stretch last year that we highlighted when it happened, but I'll bring it up again. He had 15 appearances in a row where he allowed a hit. 15! 15! That's not very good. Right. I think the key for him

[01:04:48] is he's got to get his sinker back this year. In 2023, it was pretty good. It was a three-run value pitch for whatever that's worth to people. That was back in 23. Last year, it dropped to negative five, and I kid you not, opponents slugged 600 against it. He's got to find a way to have that two-seamer be a little more effective. That may be the whole difference. How effective that two-seamer can be, how effective that sinker can be. They can just be better than what it was last year. You could see him

[01:05:17] get back to who he was in 2023, and in 2023, he was really good. Not to say he wasn't good last year, but not quite as good as 23. A lot smaller of a sample to work with, though, in 23. Less than half the innings. Right. So, I would consider that. I do think the best aspect of Trent Thornton is that the Mariners are comfortable throwing him in high volume. I don't think that makes everyone comfortable, but at least for how the Mariners used him last year, they used him the most out of any reliever.

[01:05:46] They essentially tried to put him in Matt Brash's role. He didn't do as well, but that was pretty much what he did. That's the amount of inning see-through. That's the situations they put him in. Right. With Brash coming back, that'll change a little bit. Although, yeah. That's shown that he provided some value in that role. He may still play a little bit of that role early on when Brash can't pitch every night, but I actually do like Thornton's stuff. I think he has good stuff. So,

[01:06:16] if he can just improve that sinker a little bit and maybe have a little bit more consistency month-to-month, yeah, again, he's a good reliever. I'm not saying he's an elite reliever. He's a good reliever. Speaking of good stuff, our last guy, Troy Taylor. Very small sample size. Just 19 and a third innings last year, but he showed he does have stuff to be at the big league level. Here's a stat for you, Lyle. We haven't talked about stuff plus in a while because games haven't been getting played. His sweeper

[01:06:46] last year, 144 in stuff plus. Now, if you forget what that means, stuff plus is essentially the shape of the pitch, not dependent on location. So, that meant compared to the average slider, Matt Brash's, or Matt Brash, Troy Taylor's slider was 44% better than the league average. A really good mark for someone who's just going to be 23 years old this year. He's still working his way back from the lat strain. He'll eventually be back sometime in April,

[01:07:16] but he's got the stuff as he showed last year to hang in the big leagues. How will it translate in year two and guys have some at-bats against him being just a two-pitch guy? It's going to be interesting, but he showed at times last year that I think he's a guy the Mariners envision throwing in high leverage. Not only is his slider nasty, but his fastball sits from 95 to anywhere between 95 and 99. He runs that fastball up there.

[01:07:45] He misses bats. He struck out 11.5 per nine, which is a lot for a reliever in a short sample last year. And by the way, he was only 22. He's about to be 23. This is a guy that could be a leverage reliever for them for a good while. And once he gets healthy, with those two pitches and his ability to punch tickets, it's exciting, exciting stuff. Would I like to see the walks come down a little bit this year for Troy Taylor? Yeah. I would hope he throws more strikes

[01:08:15] as his time goes on as a big league reliever. But this is somebody I think is going to be in leverage going forward and I definitely think it's somebody the Mariners believe will be in leverage going forward. 31% strikeout rate always plays. Always. No matter who you are. Mm-hmm. That's what Troy did last year. So we'll see. As the innings load increases, the responsibility depending on health of this bullpen is going to perhaps require some more out of Troy Taylor. But it would also be good if he's like the fourth leverage reliever or fifth.

[01:08:45] Right. Be very okay with that. Be great. Because that means your bullpen's deep and that's a good problem to have as the Mariners go forward. Last thing I'll say on this bullpen as we wrap it up. With Brash and Taylor starting the year on the IL, the other guys we talked about will be in this bullpen. And then you can add in obviously Bizzardo. You can add in Legamina. And you can add in Colin Snyder too. So those are the three guys that are probably going to start the year on the bullpen that we haven't talked about. And Snyder, we didn't get to him

[01:09:15] but another guy that had a great year last year. It's just can his expected numbers that were a little down from what his regular numbers were, can it hold up? Can he repeat it? And that'll be interesting to watch. But the bigger point here is nobody's job essentially aside from a couple of the upper leverage guys is going to be that safe. Guys are going to be pitching for their jobs early in the year because when Brash and Taylor get back they're going to have spots. And by the way at some point during the year Brandon Garcia is coming.

[01:09:45] He's going to be in the big leagues and they envision him to play a real role in that bullpen. So guys are going to be pitching with a little bit of an edge to start the year. So the only two guys whose jobs are really safe are Brash and Munoz so to assume. I'd say Sauce too for the most part. Brash and Munoz are safe. Honestly if I was going to pick a third I'd say Santos is probably safe because they really want to know what they have in him. He also has options so if he doesn't pitch well he can go down

[01:10:15] to the minors. And when I say safe I mean could be optioned or DFA'd depending on the player. Santos will probably be safe to start the year because again I think they value him highly and know what he can be. But yeah nobody's job is that safe and he's probably even a level below where Brash and Munoz are. Those are the two top dogs there's no doubt. Those two would get the whole season to work out if something was wrong. everyone else they got some arms to cycle through and get some looks at and

[01:10:44] none as you mentioned more important than Brandon Garcia that we're looking forward to when he eventually gets to make his big league debut whenever that might be there's going to be some competition for some of those spots. We're going to be so fired up for BG when he gets up. I can't wait. Cannot wait to watch him. It'll be fun. Really fun. All right. That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast. Yeah. Fiery one a week before opening day. But you never know what you get here with the two of us. That's why you tune in right? I hope so.

[01:11:14] Anyway if you want to listen to the full form podcast you can do so wherever you get your audio pods. Make sure to download rate and review leave it five stars pretty please like comment subscribe over on YouTube. Be sure to hit that subscribe button. That's the best way you can support the channel hitting that subscribe. Go check out our merch. We are fired up to have it rolling rolling along and rolling out against just baseball dot shop. Go check that out. Go over to our Patreon. Come hang out with us there. We're going to be rolling out a bunch of ideas over there as well. And then follow us

[01:11:44] everywhere on social media at Marine Layer Pod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.